蒙克对话安德鲁·科恩：杰罗姆·鲍威尔对抗特朗普，以及西方为何不愿干预伊朗

我们从坏的例子中学习，但也从好的例子中学习。

We we learn from bad examples, but we also learn from good examples.

我们已经看到无数人向特朗普屈膝的糟糕例子。

And we've seen a a sea of bad examples of people bending the knee to Trump.

看到一位身处如此要职、如此暴露位置的人，以平静的尊严和勇气挺身而出，确实令人鼓舞，我希望人们能从中获得启发。

To see somebody in such a position, in such an exposed position, standing up with that quiet dignity and courage, is truly inspiring, and I hope people will take inspiration from it.

特朗普总统对美国联邦储备委员会主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔发动了前所未有的攻击。

President Trump launches an unparalleled attack against Jerome Powell, the chair of the US Federal Reserve.

这可能对美国及全球经济产生重大影响，让我们来剖析其背后的意义。

Big implications possibly for the American and global economy to help break down what it all means.

很高兴欢迎我们的常驻嘉宾安德鲁·科恩做客《蒙克对话》，他是《环球邮报》的记者，也是畅销书作家。

A pleasure to have here on Monk Dialogues, our returning guest, Andrew Coyne, journalist with The Globe and Mail and bestselling author.

安德鲁，我想我看到你身后那本书了，叫《加拿大民主的危机》。

I think I can see the book there in the background, Andrew, Crisis of Canadian Democracy.

干得好，先生。

Well done, sir.

看起来这就是你应该做的事。

Seems like that's the thing you're supposed to do.

那么，安德鲁，我们来谈谈过去24小时的大新闻。

Well, Andrew, let's talk about the big news in the last twenty four hours.

周五晚上爆出一条消息，美国司法部已对美国联邦储备委员会主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔启动刑事调查，指控他在关于华盛顿特区一系列美联储大楼建设成本和改进工程的极其专业的证词中对国会撒谎。

A story came out late Friday that the US Justice Department, has initiated a criminal investigation against Jerome Powell, the chair of the US Federal Reserve, alleging, that, he lied to Congress in highly technical testimony around the construction costs and improvements related to a series of Federal Reserve buildings in Washington DC.

安德鲁，这件事可以从很多角度来分析，但首先我想谈谈这一点：司法部竟然对美国最具权势的公职人员之一——杰罗姆·鲍威尔——提出指控？

There's so many ways to come at this, Andrew, but first I just want talk about that aspect of it, the Justice Department coming forward with charges against arguably the most powerful public official in The United States, Jerome Powell?

这太荒谬了。

It's ludicrous.

这不仅前所未有。

It's, not just unprecedented.

而且毫无根据。

It's without any basis.

我的意思是，在唐纳德·特朗普执政下，司法部已明显沦为政治阴谋和政治恐吓的工具。

I mean, the justice department under, Donald Trump has become very clearly an arm of political intrigue, political intimidation, etcetera.

它根本没有任何独立的公信力了，尤其是针对这种案件。

It has no, freestanding credibility, frankly, anymore, particularly for this kind of case.

尤其是针对这位个人提起指控，我认为在美国再也找不出比他更不可能有犯罪行为的公务员了。

To bring it against this individual in particular, I mean, there cannot be a less criminal looking civil servant in America.

他有着数十年正直的职业生涯，始终坚持良好的政策，即使这些政策并不受欢迎。

He is has a decades long career behind him of integrity and of standing up for good policies even when they weren't popular.

而在这个问题上采取行动，尤其是当唐纳德·特朗普正在拆毁白宫、为自己建造虚荣的舞厅时，这明显是特朗普式的手段——你总是针对别人做你自己最擅长的坏事。

To do so on this issue in particular, when Donald Trump is tearing down the White House, to put up his his, you know, vanity ballroom, it it smacks of the of the Trump method, which is you always go after people for that for which you are yourself most guilty.

因此，这作为司法不公是令人震惊的。

So it's appalling, in terms of the as a miscarriage of justice.

但当然，这种司法不公是为了什么服务的呢？

But, of course, it's a miscarriage of justice in the service of what?

是为了不仅政治化美国的货币政策，而且彻底掌控它。

In the service of not just politicizing and taking over the administration of monetary policy in The United States.

他们本来就可以这么做。

They could do that anyway.

你知道，他们正在设法让自己的人进入美联储董事会。

You know, they're working out their way at getting their own people onto the board of the Federal Reserve.

无论如何，主席的任期在五月就结束了。

The chairman's term ends in May anyway.

所以这显然和往常一样，特朗普希望表现出自己占主导地位。

So this is clearly want to as usual with Trump, they want to be seen to be dominating.

他们想向其他公务员、未来的美联储理事和理事会主席传递信息：你们必须服从，否则的话。

They want to be sending messages to other civil servants, to future Federal Reserve governors and chairs of the board of governors that you obey or else.

我们会摧毁你。

We will crush you.

我们会动用国家机器。

We will use the instruments of state.

利用所谓捏造的刑事指控来打击那些他们无法通过其他方式直接对付的人，这正成为特朗普政府普遍的行事方式，如果我可以这么说的话。

And this is becoming a modus operandi generally of the Trump administration is using, if I may use the phrase, trumped up, criminal charges, to go after people that they can't directly go after in other ways.

所以这在多个层面上都令人震惊。

So it's it's it's appalling on, you know, multiple levels.

是的。

Yeah.

我们来谈谈这里潜在的经济风险吧，安德鲁。

Let's talk a little bit, Andrew, about the potential stakes here, the economic stakes.

你可能想透露一点家族历史。

There's a little bit of family history you may wanna disclose.

你的父亲曾是加拿大央行的行长，因此，你对这一机构在先进经济体中的作用，间接地有所了解。

Your father was the governor of the Bank of Canada, so, this is, an institution, that you indirectly, know something about in terms of its role in an advanced economy.

特别是，安德鲁，人们会说，它对战后西方经济秩序做出了非凡的贡献，以及经济政策在多大程度上由独立于政治的机构制定。

And especially, I think Andrew, people would say its remarkable contributions to, the whole postwar economic order in the West and the extent to which economic policy itself is set by independent institutions separate from politics.

如果政治与货币政策之间的这条‘马其诺防线’、这条护城河被突破，安德鲁，会有什么风险？

What's at stake, Andrew, if that Maginot Line, that moat between politics and monetary policy is breached?

到底有什么风险？

What's at stake?

首先，简单提一下与‘硬币事件’的对比，那是迪芬贝克政府试图将我父亲——加拿大央行行长詹姆斯·科恩——赶下台。

Well, just quickly first, a comparison and contrast with the coin affair, which was the Dieffenbacher's government's attempt to remove my father from, the office of the governor of the Bank of Canada, James Coyne.

相似之处在于，他的任期也即将结束。

What's similar is his term was about to end as well.

他们希望看起来像是在将他撤职。

They wanted to be seen to be removing him.

不同的是，在迪芬贝克硬币事件中，实际上在货币政策上并没有实质性的分歧。

The difference is there really wasn't any substantial difference over monetary policy in the Dieffenbaker coin affair.

这在某种程度上纯粹是政治性的，而且很卑劣。

It was, way more political than that in a kind of a base way.

他们并没有真正的实质性政策分歧。

They they they didn't really have any serious substantive policy differences.

他们只是需要一个替罪羊。

They just needed a head on a spike.

他们在选举前夕寻找替罪羊。

They were looking for a scapegoat in the in the run up to an election.

而这次，很明显存在重大的政策分歧，即鲍威尔希望继续延续过去三、四十年特别成功的货币政策。

In this case, it's pretty clear there is a substantial policy difference, which is, Powell would like to continue with the sick highly successful monetary policy of the last thirty or forty years in particular.

你提到了战后，五十年代、六十年代、七十年代和八十年代那段时期有点动荡。

You said postwar, and the period in the fifties, sixties, seventies, and eighties was a little rocky.

当时我们这些央行才刚开始玩这个游戏。

We were the central banks were new to this game.

我们还没经历过通货膨胀的噩梦。

We hadn't gone through the horrors of inflation.

尤其是北美地区。

We in in the North America in particular.

因此，我们在七十年代、八十年代和九十年代学到了惨痛的教训。

And so we really learned tough lessons in the seventies and eighties and nineties.

但自那以后，我们经历了一个可能在人类历史上前所未有的时期——三十多年里，通胀率一直维持在2%以下或左右。

But since then, we've had a period probably unmatched in human history of thirty years more where inflation stayed below 2% or around 2%.

在人类历史上，很难找到另一个能与这种稳定性相媲美的时期。

It's hard to find a period in human history that can match that, that kind of stability.

当疫情后通胀飙升时，这种经验带来了巨大的回报，人们因为有过这段经历，始终将通胀预期锁定在2%。

And it had paid huge dividends when it came to the spike in inflation coming out of the pandemic in that people having that experience kept their expectations locked on 2%.

他们对自己说：好吧，我们现在正经历这段时期，但通胀很快就会回落到2%。

They said, okay, to themselves, okay, we're going through this period now, but inflation will get back down to 2% pretty soon.

所以我不打算提出过高的工资和价格要求，指望通胀会长期维持在较高水平。

So I'm not gonna make extravagant wage and price demands in the expectation that there's gonna be a long standing higher inflation.

这是一项了不起的成就，也是一项重要的贡献。

So that was a remarkable achievement and a remarkable contribution.

其中一个重要原因是，民主国家普遍确立了这样的惯例和法律：中央银行应保持独立，政府——这一点又源于货币事务的教训——不应干预。

A big part of the reason for that is the convention and the law that came into force across the democratic countries that the central bank should be left independent, that governments and this again comes out of the coin affair.

政府必须对总体政策负责。

Governments have to accept responsibility for the broad policy.

因此，这背后依然存在民主基础：民选政府对货币政策负有最终责任。

So there's still a there's ultimately a democratic foundation to this, that the democratically elected government is accountable for monetary policy.

但正如政府在许多事务上所做的那样，我们将日常运作委托出去，以避免幕后政治干预，比如在选举前暗中操纵利率以压低利率，诸如此类的把戏，我们过去在一些民主国家确实见过。

But as we do with a lot of things in government, you delegate the day to day operation of it so that you don't risk having behind the scenes, politicization of it and pulling strings to get interest rates low just before an an election or, you know, this kind of shenanigans, which we've certainly seen in the past in some democratic countries.

所以，中央银行并不是一个脱离民主基础的至高无上的权力机构。

So it's not that the that the that the central bank is some supreme power unto itself with no democratic underpinnings.

它最终必须源于民主授权。

It it ultimately has to come from a democratic mandate.

但这种区别在于，民选政府在公开场合明确政策的大方向，让我们都能看到。

But it's this distinction between the democratic government sets the broad outlines of policy out in the open in public where we can all see it.

而日常运作则交由独立的专业公务员在幕后处理，如果他们出了任何问题，最终仍需承担责任。

But the day to day operation behind the scenes is left to independent professional civil servants who ultimately can be held to account if they've messed up in one way or shape or form.

但关键在于，这必须基于正当理由。

But that's the important phrase is that it has to be for cause.

他们必须确实……

They have to have Yeah.

犯下了极其严重的错误，比如严重失职、腐败之类的行为。

Done something really terrible, some terrible dereliction of duty, or corruption or that kind of thing.

因此，总统并不能单方面罢免美联储主席。

So the president doesn't really have the power to remove the federal bank the Federal Reserve chair on his own.

所以他们不得不寻找这些捏造的指控，以便能借机行事。

So this is why they've had to look for these these invented charges, again, so they can get ahead on a pike.

是的。

Yeah.

安德鲁，如果你看看世界各地那些未能遵守、违反或削弱其中央银行独立性的国家，我认为最明显的例子就是当今的土耳其，由于中央银行独立性的削弱，它经历了一场严重的货币危机。

And, Andrew, if you look around the world at countries that, have either failed to observe, in in the breach or fit or have eroded the independence of their their central banks, I think of, you know, most the most kind of blatant example is is present day Turkey, which has gone through a a deep monetary crisis as a result of erosion of central bank independence.

历史上的例子如津巴布韦和阿根廷，同样极为极端。

Historical examples like Zimbabwe and Argentina, which are, again, are extreme.

安德鲁，当政治家们在某种程度上接管货币政策时，会发生什么？

What happens, Andrew, when politicians, in a sense, take over monetary policy?

为什么这往往会导向通货膨胀，甚至在某些情况下导致恶性通货膨胀？

Why does it have this tendency to lead to a slide towards extreme inflation, in some cases hyperinflation?

共同的线索不仅是专制言论，还有无视规则、随心所欲地行事的倾向，尤其是对掌权者而言。

Well, the common thread is not only a talk autocracy and and a willingness to flout rules and and just do what you feel like doing and when for those in power.

财政责任才是起点。

It's it's fiscal responsibility as the starting point.

因此，财政部门——即征税和支出的民选政府——在货币政策上存在利益冲突，这种冲突非常明显且公然存在。

So fiscal authorities, the the elected government that taxes and spends, is in a conflict of interest, a pretty obvious and flagrant one when it comes to monetary policy.

因为要通过增税来为挥霍的支出买单，他们必须——如果是在民主国家——去向民选议会申请批准加税。

Because whereas to to to raise taxes to to to pay for profligate spending, they've got to they've got to go to a a a if it's a democracy, an elected parliament, they've gotta ask for permission to raise those taxes.

这总是很困难，并且伴随着政治风险。

That's always difficult and carries political risks.

你可以通过通货膨胀来变相偿还债务，或者希望用贬值的美元（或任何本币）来赖掉欠款，从而试图欺骗债权人。

You can just inflate your way away, or you hope to, that you pay off your debts in devalued dollars or whatever your currency is, and you hope to kinda cheat your creditors that way.

但说实话，现在越来越难这么做了。

Now it's harder and harder to get away with that, frankly.

自上世纪六七十年代的大通胀以来，债券市场经常被我们称为‘债券守卫者’。

Ever since the great inflation of the sixties, seventies, and eighties, bond markets, we oftentimes, we talk about the bond vigilantes.

债券市场对政府任何可能采取这种做法的迹象都极为敏感。

Bond markets are extremely attuned to any implication that that that's what the government is up to.

那么，它们会怎么做呢？

So what do they do?

它们会压低债券的价格。

They mark down the price of the bonds.

与此相反的是利率上升，你甚至无法实现这种不正当的计划。

The inverse of that is the interest rates go up, and you wind up not even getting away with this ill ill begotten plan.

但这从根本上源于这种利益冲突，即试图摆脱财政负担。

But it's fundamentally rooted in this conflict of interest, this attempt to get out from under fiscal burdens.

如果你看看现在的美国，他们在相对和平与繁荣时期（而非衰退或战争时期）的赤字达到了GDP的6%左右。

And if you look at The United States right now, they're running deficits on the order of 6% of GDP in in relative peacetime, in relative prosperity, not in a recession or a war.

这是完全不可持续的。

That's utterly unsustainable.

因此，你可以理解为什么这种诱惑依然存在。

And so you can see why there would be that temptation anyway.

而在特朗普的情况下，他来自房地产开发商背景，凡事都是一副笑脸擦鞋的做派。

And, of in Trump's case, he comes from a background of real estate developer where everything's a smile on a shoeshine.

让我们采取最乐观的可能情景。

Let's take the most optimistic possible scenario.

而这一切都建立在保持低利率的基础上。

And everything's predicated on keep interest rates low.

因此，这个行业以及整个商业领域总是倾向于尽可能压低利率。

So they always have a bias in that industry and in business generally towards towards the lowest interest they can get away with.

特朗普一直说利率应该降到1%，没错。

Trump's been talking about interest rates should be at 1% Yeah.

到2026年，这简直是荒谬的。

In 2026, which is preposterous.

通胀率现在超过2%，我认为接近3%，根据最近的估算。

Inflation's at 2% plus, and I'd say it's close to 3%, I believe, in the last estimate.

所以，这种推动力就来源于此。

So so that's, you know, that's where that that impetus comes from.

如果你以任何一贯的方式长期实施这种做法，单纯靠大量增发货币，本质上就是在试图超越市场预期。

And if you apply it in any kind of consistent fashion for any kind of period of time where you're just basically gunning the money supply, you're hoping basically to outrun expectations.

我之前提到，债券市场如今对此极为敏感。

So I talked about how the bond markets are so attuned now.

因此，要想获得任何财政利益或经济刺激，你本质上都必须超越市场预期。

So in order to get any kind of fiscal benefit or any kind of economic goosing, you basically have to outrun expectations.

你必须人为地将通胀推高到人们的预期之上。

You have to engineer inflation higher than people expect it will be.

是的。

Yeah.

但这是一场必输的游戏。

And that's a losing game.

这意味着你必须不断把通胀推得越来越高，这就是为什么最终会演变成恶性通货膨胀。

That means you have to keep pushing inflation higher and higher and higher and higher, and that's why it winds up ending up in hyperinflation.

在我们结束这部分对话之前，让我们谈谈你认为安德鲁，特朗普发起攻击的动机可能是什么。

As we wrap up this portion of our conversation, let's just talk about what you think, Andrew, could be the motives behind Trump's attack.

当然，你总是要小心，不要为他的疯狂行为赋予某种系统性的逻辑。

Again, you always wanna be careful to, you know, subscribe him to some kind of methodology to the madness.

但他今年秋天面临中期选举。

But he is facing midterm elections this fall.

美国经济最新的就业报告和其他信号都显示出一些迹象。

There are signs, latest job reports and other signals out of The US economy.

虽然经济没有陷入衰退，但其表现可能并不像现任总统在大选前希望的那样，增长停滞，就业增长乏力。

While it's not in recession, it's it's not probably performing as an incumbent president would wish going into those recessions, kind of stalling, job growth.

所以，安德鲁，你认为这是否仅仅是一种简单而鲁莽的企图——就像你所说的，现在威胁和恐吓美联储，以便在五月他试图通过参议院确认他的新美联储主席时，我们能看到一系列降息，而且美联储在中期选举前可以一次加息超过25个基点？

So is this, Andrew, do you think, something just as simple and bullheaded as an attempt to, as you say, threaten and intimidate the Fed now, so come May, when he will try to confirm, that is the president, through through the Senate, his new Fed chair, that we will be, you know, treated to a series of, of rate cuts, and and the Fed can move more than 25 basis points at a time, if it wants to, before the midterm elections.

这可能比那还要简单、还要鲁莽。

Well, it could be more simple and more bullheaded than that.

可能只是因为鲍威尔违抗了他。

It could be just that, Powell has defied him.

鲍威尔曾进行过一次著名的双人采访，当时总统就站在他旁边，而鲍威尔却当面反驳了总统，你知道特朗普对这种事有多反感。

Powell went famously and and did a, you know, two handed interview with, you know, with the press beside with the president beside him in which he contradicted the president, and you know how Trump feels about things like that.

更广泛地说，他的一切行为都是为了展示权威，表明自己掌控一切，处于中心地位。

More broadly, you know, he everything about him is a is an attempt to show dominance, to show that he's in charge, that he's at the center of everything.

因此，用‘民主政府在选举前希望廉价货币’这种常规视角来分析，几乎是在为他正常化行为。

So, you know, analyzing it through the conventional lens of democratic governments want cheap money before elections is almost normalizing them.

没错。

It's Right.

我不会否认这一点，也许这是其中一部分。

I wouldn't dispute that, maybe part of it.

但同样，他即将迎来一次残酷的醒悟。

But, again, he's in for a rude awakening.

美联储或许能够影响短期利率。

The Fed might be able to influence short term interest rates.

但它无法控制长期利率。

It cannot control long term interest rates.

是的。

Yes.

所以，如果你只是以一种人为的方式压低短期利率，这种做法会令市场感到恐慌，让他们认为通胀即将来临，那么结果反而会导致长期利率上升，这意味着抵押贷款利率也会上升。

So if all that you do is you drive down in an artificial way, short term interest rates in a way that alarms the markets and makes them think inflation's on their way, then you get higher long term interest rates coming out of that, which means higher mortgage rates.

因此，这甚至不太可能在短期内为他们带来任何选举上的好处。

So it's not even likely to pay dividends for them in any kind of short term electoral sense.

当你审视他所做的一切时，你知道，他的支持率现在是多少？35%吗？

And, you know, when you look at everything he's doing, you know, he's at, what is it, 35% now in the approval ratings?

嗯。

Mhmm.

他表现得不像一个真正关心赢得常规选举的人。

He's not acting like a guy who's really concerned about winning a conventional election.

他显然在表现得像一个竭尽全力试图操纵选举的人。

He's certainly looking at acting like a guy who's doing everything he can to try to rig that election.

是的。

Yeah.

哦，《纽约时报》上有一篇报道。

Oh, there's a story in the New York Times.

我想是今天发布的。

I think it's today.

你知道吗？

You know?

或者可能是《华盛顿邮报》列出了他试图在选举中作弊的各种方式。

Or maybe the Washington Post listing all the different ways he's trying to, you know, put a thumb on the scales of this election.

所以，这可能是在给他过多的肯定

So it it it may be giving him too much credit

是的。

Yeah.

这么说的话，他就像尼克松当年施压阿瑟·伯恩斯一样，如果我没记错历史时间线的话。

In a way to say that he's he's he's just doing kind of Nixon Nixon leaning on Arthur Burns in the in the in the in the nineteen seventies if I've got my if I've got my history historical chronology.

你说得对。

You're right.

你说得对。

You're right.

我觉得。

I think.

威廉·埃斯尼·马丁，是他们中的一个。

William Esney Martin, it's one of the two of them.

让我们以一个积极的结尾结束这一部分，就是鲍威尔主席上周末的视频声明，安德鲁。

Let's, end this section on a positive note, which is Chairman Powell's video statement over the weekend, Andrew.

我认为，这可能是自从特朗普总统第二任期开始以来，将近一年的时间里，首次有公职人员如此有力、直率地出来谴责总统的行动，否认其合法性和依据，并提醒美国公众注意该机构及该公职人员的角色。

It's really the first time, I think, I can remember in these last, what is it now, year or so of the the first year of the second term of the Trump presidency, where a public official has so forcefully, in such a forthright manner, come out and condemned the president's actions, denied the validity and the basis of them, and, you know, reminded the American public of, you know, the role of said institution and said public official.

安德鲁，你觉得如果其他官员也像鲍威尔这个周末一样行事，会发生什么？

Do you what would have happened, Andrew, if other officials had behaved the way that Powell behaved this weekend?

而鲍威尔现在这样做的原因是什么？

And is the fact that Powell is now behaving this way?

让我们记住，到目前为止，他确实试图在某种程度上与特朗普保持平衡。

Because let's remember, he did try to, in a sense, walk a line with Trump up to this point.

是的。

Yeah.

他现在公开点名批评总统、公开点名批评白宫，这意味着什么？

What does it mean that he is now, in a sense, openly called out the president, openly called out the White House?

可以说，他已经扔出了手套。

In a sense, he's he's thrown down the glove.

是的。

Yes.

以一种非常庄重且非情绪化的方式。

In a very dignified and non, emotive way.

非常具有央行官员的风格。

It's very central bankerly.

非常实事求是。

It's very matter of fact.

但这赋予了它巨大的力量。

But that gives it enormous power.

我认为，中央银行家，尤其是在当今时代，享有很高的声誉，尽管因疫情和乌克兰战争引发的通胀而略有受损。

Central bankers, I think, particularly in this day and age, enjoy a very high reputation, maybe damaged somewhat by the inflation coming out of the pandemic and the Ukraine war.

但我认为人们也注意到，通胀随后急剧回落。

But I think people also noticed that inflation came sharply right back down again.

尤其是那家以抗击通胀著称的中央银行。

And particularly a central bank that's earned a reputation as an inflation fighter.

什么是通货膨胀？

What is inflation?

通货膨胀本质上是一系列谎言。

Inflation is is basically a series of lies.

你签订的每一项合同，实际上都是在欺骗别人。

Every contract that you strike, you're basically lying to people.

你声称会以一定金额偿还，但到你还款时，这笔钱的价值已经大不如前。

You're saying, I'm gonna pay you back in this amount of money, but it won't be worth that much by the time I pay it back to you.

因此，在高通胀时期，我们都在彼此欺骗。

So we're all kind of lying to each other in periods of high inflation.

因此，反通胀、所谓的诚实货币，与诚信、说真话以及一切与唐纳德·特朗普所代表的事物相对立的价值观紧密相连。

So anti inflation, honest money, as it's sometimes called, is very connected to the idea of integrity and and of truth telling and of everything that is opposed to what Donald Trump stands for.

因此，当美联储理事以这种极其克制、严肃、庄重的方式与他对抗时，这会产生影响，首先就是如此。

So when the Federal Reserve governor in this very reserved, sober, dignified way takes him on like this, that has repercussions, first of all.

其次，中央银行是市场的守护者，是低通胀、稳定和可预期预期的守护者，而所有这些，正如我们逐渐认识到的，与繁荣乃至粗略地说，与股市价值密切相关。

Second of all, the central bank is the guardian of the markets and of of of low inflation stability, predictable expectations, all the things that are very, as we've come to learn, very intimately connected to prosperity and to, if you wanna be crude about it, to to stock market values.

因此，他在这一方面也是一个强大的对手。

So he's also a formidable opponent in that regard.

第三，他拥有美联储的制度性权力。

Thirdly, he's got the institutional power of the Fed.

他不容易被罢免。

He cannot be easily removed.

这就是他们采取这些极端措施的原因。

This is why they're going to these extreme measures.

人们总是在寻找麦卡锡听证会那样的时刻，当时约瑟夫·韦尔奇对他说道：‘终于，你难道没有一点尊严吗？’

Everybody's always looking for the McCarthy hearings moment when the, you know, Joseph Welch turned to him and said, at long last or have you no dignity.

我认为这样的时刻不会出现。

I don't think there's going to be that moment.

即使有，这也可能是那样的时刻，但我认为特朗普的本质是，他同时向公众抛出太多东西，严重损害了人们辨别是非和理解周围事件的能力，因此我认为人们更难聚焦于这样一种关键时刻。

If there were, this is the kind of thing that could be, but I don't think the nature of Trump is he throws so many things at the public at once that he's so damaged people's ability to tell right from wrong and to understand the events around them that it's harder, I think, for people to focus on a kind of an moment like that.

但这无疑可以起到帮助作用，并作为众多反抗他的事件之一，带来希望。

But this can certainly help and contribute as one of many, one hopes, episodes of people standing up against him.

它当然应该给其他人带来希望、激励和勇气，让他们也采取同样的行动。

And it certainly should give hope and inspiration and courage to others to do likewise.

我们从坏的例子中学习，但也从好的例子中学习。

We learn from bad examples, but we also learn from good examples.

我们已经看到无数人向特朗普低头的糟糕例子。

And we've seen a a sea of bad examples of people bending the knee to Trump.

看到一位身处如此显赫位置、如此暴露于公众视野中的人，以平静的尊严和勇气挺身而出，这确实令人鼓舞，我希望人们能从中获得启发。

To see somebody in such a position in such an exposed position standing up with that quiet dignity and courage is truly inspiring, and I hope people will take inspiration from it.

感谢您收听安德鲁·科恩的蒙克对话上半部分。

Thank you for listening to the first half of Andrew Coyne's Monk Dialogue.

如果您想收听完整节目，不妨考虑成为蒙克捐赠者。

If you'd like to get the full program, consider becoming a Monk donor.

您每年只需捐赠50美元，每周一美元，即可获得我们广受欢迎的周五节目——《周五聚焦》与珍妮丝·格罗斯·斯坦的访谈。

You can do that for as little as $50 a year, a buck a week, and you get access to our popular Friday program, Friday Focus with Janice Gross Stein.

请前往www.monk,munk,debateswithans.com注册，享受您专属的会员权益和特权。

Sign up for all of your unique membership perks and privileges at www.monk,munk,debateswithans.com.

点击屏幕右上角的‘加入’按钮。

Click on the join button on the top right hand corner of the screen.

提前感谢您的慷慨支持。

Thanks in advance for your generous support.

蒙克辩论会是由奥里亚、彼得和梅兰妮·蒙克慈善基金会主办的项目。

The Monk debates are a project of the Auria and Peter and Melanie Monk Charitable Foundations.

鲁德亚德·格里菲斯和里基·格罗维茨是制作人。

Rudyard Griffiths and Ricky Gurowitz are the producers.

请务必在您收听播客的平台下载并订阅。

Be sure to download and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.

如果您喜欢我们的节目，欢迎给我们五星评价。

And if you like us, feel free to give us a five star rating.

再次感谢您的收听。

Thank you again for listening.

蒙克辩论会是由奥里亚、彼得和梅兰妮·蒙克慈善基金会主办的项目。

The Monk debates are a project of the Auria and Peter and Melanie Monk Charitable Foundations.

鲁德亚德·格里菲斯和里基·古尔维茨是制作人。

Rudyard Griffiths and Ricky Gurwitz are the producers.

请务必在您收听播客的平台下载并订阅。

Be sure to download and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.

如果您喜欢我们，欢迎给我们五星评价。

And if you like us, free to give us a five star rating.

再次感谢您的收听。

Thank you again for listening.