达沃斯引领科学前沿

所有引擎正在运行。

All engine running.

绝对天才。

Absolute genius.

听好了。

Get this.

欢迎。

Welcome.

欢迎

Welcome

来到这个节目，我们为您带来科学。

to this is the show where we bring you science.

这实际上意味着

What that essentially means is

发现他的进步引发研究

Discovering his advances questions research

技术。

technology.

难以置信。

Unbelievable.

废话少说

Without further ado

这是《裸体科学家》。

This is the Naked Scientist.

你好。

Hello.

欢迎收听《裸体科学家》播客。

Welcome to the Naked Scientist podcast.

这档节目为您带来最重要的突破性进展，并与科学、技术和医学领域的关键人物对话。

This is the show that brings you the biggest breakthroughs and also talks to the major movers and shakers in the worlds of science, technology, and medicine.

我是克里斯·史密斯。

I'm Chris Smith.

今年，我们将了解为什么科学在达沃斯世界经济论坛上至关重要。

And this week, we're gonna find out why science matters at the World Economic Forum in Davos.

达沃斯世界经济论坛是一个年度盛会，汇聚了来自商业、政府和学术界的全球领袖，他们在瑞士达沃斯会面，讨论重大的全球议题。

The Davos World Economic Forum is an annual gathering of global leaders in business, government, and academia who convene in Davos, Switzerland to discuss major world issues.

其口号是连接领袖，以理解全球挑战并推动世界前进。

The strapline is connecting leaders to make sense of global challenges and move the world forward.

新兴技术、经济和地缘政治等议题都将被深入探讨，如此多的有影响力的人物齐聚一堂，使得这一论坛成为推动变革的强大催化剂。

Topics such as emerging technologies, economics, and geopolitics all go under the microscope, and the presence of so many powerful movers and shakers all under one roof means this can be a potent catalyst for change.

今年，有一支团队将为科学大声疾呼。

This year, one team are going to be banging the drum extra hard for science.

开放获取出版商Frontiers将推出Frontiers科学之家，以与政策制定者、商界和意见领袖互动。

The open access publisher Frontiers are unveiling the Frontiers Science House to engage policymakers, the business community, and opinion formers.

今年，我们与Frontiers合作，提前一窥其内幕。

And teaming up with Frontiers this week, we have been getting a sneaky peek.

里面正等待着免疫学、核聚变能源和可持续农业领域的崭新倡议，我们将在接下来的节目中为大家介绍。

Waiting inside are glittering new initiatives in immunology, fusion energy, and sustainable agriculture, which we will hear about along the way.

为我们打开科学之屋大门的是首席执行编辑弗雷德·文特尔。

Throwing open the door to the Science House for us is chief executive editor Fred Venter.

前沿科学之屋将成为今年世界经济论坛年会期间达沃斯的科学之家。

The Frontier Science House is going to be the home for science in Davos during this annual meeting of the World Economic Forum.

正如您所知，世界经济论坛由商业、金融、政策、学术界、媒体等领域的领袖组成。

As you know, the World Economic Forum is composed of leaders in business and finance, also in policy and academia, media, etcetera.

我们设立前沿科学之屋的目标，是将科学直接带入每年在达沃斯聚集的这些领袖群体中。

And our objective with the Frontier Science House is to bring science directly into this community of leaders that gather every year in Davos.

人们常批评科学传播和公众参与活动，往往只是对已经对科学感兴趣的人说教，因为那些对科学有兴趣的人会主动去寻找相关信息。

One of the criticisms of outreach and trying to engage people with science is often we end up preaching to the converted, because if people see some things about science and they're interested in science, they will seek it out.

而不感兴趣的人，则不会主动接触。

The people who are not, won't.

那么，你们如何避免只是对已经信服的人说教呢？

So how are you gonna not preach to the converted?

许多人可能并不知道，对于我们全球社会所面临的大多数挑战，我们仍需要新的科学来构建解决方案。

A lot of people are probably not aware of the fact that for most of the challenges that we face as a global society, we still need new science in order to build out the solutions for these problems.

因此，这种对话极为重要，以便商业领袖、资助者和政策制定者能够直接与那些处于科学前沿、正在开发急需的新科学以应对这些社会挑战的科学家进行交流。

So it's extremely important that this dialogue takes place so that the business leaders, the funders, and the policymakers can directly talk to the scientists who are on the cutting edge, they're on the forefront of developing this this new science, which is so desperately needed in terms of being able to address these societal challenges.

那么，请详细说说你们打算怎么做。

So talk us through how you're gonna do it then.

你们将有一个场地，位于世界经济论坛期间。

You've got a venue, which is going to be at the World Economic Forum.

它将成为科学与商业汇聚的中心。

It is going to be the nidus around which science and business nucleate.

具体会发生什么？

How and what will happen?

这将是一个场所，我们能够将属于达沃斯网络、拥有重大决策权且在其组织内具有极高影响力的人们聚集在一起。

It's going to be a place where we are going to be able to bring together the people who are part of this Davos network and people with exceptional decisional power and they also have very, very high influence within their organizations.

因此，从高层次来看，我们希望将这些人与科学家同桌交流，深入探讨科学如何在规划他们自身组织的未来中发挥作用。

And so at a very high level, what we'd like to be able to do is actually bring these people to the same table as scientists and have deep discussions about how science can play a role in terms of planning the future of their own organizations.

那么，你们预计会向这些人展示哪些科学领域和科学家？

So what sorts of science and scientists do you anticipate planting in front of these people?

我们这一周将有数百名演讲者。

We have hundreds of speakers across the week.

我们将邀请人类免疫组计划的负责人简·梅特卡夫。

We will have the executive share of the Human Immunome Project, Jane Metcalf.

简是一位出色的演讲者。

Jane is a fantastic speaker.

她总是能够阐述生物技术如何融入日常生活。

She's always able to sort of project this perspective on how biotech innovation can reach into everyday life.

但我们还将讨论能源瓶颈问题，这将是达沃斯与会者关注的重点。

But we're also gonna be talking about the energy bottleneck, which will be on the minds of many people there in Davos.

因此，我们将邀请诺沃特龙聚变公司的首席执行官彼得·罗斯。

So we'll have Peter Rose, who is the CEO of Novotron Fusion.

他将为我们真实地介绍我们距离将聚变能源实际接入电网还有多近。

So he'll be there to give us an idea of realistically how close are we to being able to inject fusion energy practically into the grid.

我们还将听取欧洲创新理事会主席米哈伊尔·谢弗的发言。

We'll be hearing from Mikhail Shefer, who is the president of the European Innovation Council.

这同样是一个有趣的视角，因为他将探讨政策如何在欧洲背景下演变，以支持研究产出最终转化为创新成果并实现工业化规模的应用。

And that's also an interesting perspective because he'll be talking about how policy will evolve, particularly in the European context to support the way that the outputs of research ultimately end up as developed innovation and then industrial scale solutions.

那么，目标是让这些关系在达沃斯的科学之家中萌芽，然后在会后继续发展吗？

Is the aim then that relationships will be born in Davos at the science house and then continue after that?

还是你们试图改变人们的思维，让这些有影响力与会者在会后推动他们的企业、国家朝着更理想化的科学引领方向发展？

Or are you trying to change thinking so that then these influential attendees would just push their businesses, push their countries in different directions in an ideal science led direction afterwards.

他们关注领导力的质量，而我们想强调的是，强有力的领导需要人们具备信息素养，提前思考这些不同技术发展将如何交汇，可能带来哪些有趣的后果。但我希望，所有这些与会者离开达沃斯时，都能更深刻地认识到：科学必须成为他们未来诸多决策中不可或缺的核心考量。

They're concerned about the quality of their leadership, and what we'd like to stress is the fact that strong leadership requires people to be informed, thinking ahead of time about how these different technological developments are going to converge, how they might have certain interesting consequences, but I do hope that all of these people will leave Davos with a better sense that science must be a core consideration for many of the decisions, the informed decisions that they're going to need to make about the future.

正如我之前提到的，将这些领导者——CEO和科学家——聚集到同一张桌子旁，我认为这正是前沿科学之家独特力量的来源。

Bringing these leaders, the CEOs and scientists to the same table, as I mentioned before, I think this is what is going to make the Frontier Science House uniquely powerful.

刚才那是来自Frontiers的弗雷德·芬特，稍后我们会听到弗雷德对今年活动期望达成的目标的简短看法。

That was Fred Fenter at Frontiers, and we'll get a quick thought from Fred about what he hopes this year's event will achieve a bit later on.

不过现在，我们将听取弗雷德在那段内容中提到的一些明星演讲者的声音，包括简·梅特卡夫。

Now though, we're going to hear from some of the star studded speakers that Fred mentioned in that piece, including Jane Metcalfe.

她是人类免疫组计划的执行主席，这是一个致力于解码和建模免疫系统的全球性非营利组织。

She's the executive chair of the Human Immunome Project, which is a global nonprofit organization dedicated to decoding and modeling the immune system.

她设想通过一个雄心勃勃的五年项目，像基因组学和蛋白质组学已经开启新的诊断和治疗机遇一样，将她的免疫图谱引入临床。

With an ambitious five year project, she envisages bringing her immune map into the clinic in much the same way that genomics and proteomics have begun to unlock new diagnostic and therapeutic opportunities.

这是一种系统性的免疫学思维模式，我们关注的不只是构成免疫系统的各个单独组成部分，而是所有分子、细胞、组织和器官如何协同工作，以及它们如何与身体其他系统（如基因组、微生物组或代谢组）相互作用。

It's a system way of thinking about immunology in which we're not focused on just the individual players that make up the immune system, but we're looking about how all of the molecules and the cells and the tissues and the organs work together, how they interact with other systems in the body, like the genome or the microbiome or the metabolome.

我们所思考的是三维模型，而不仅仅是平面的地图。

And what we are thinking about is three-dimensional models, not just flat cartography.

但免疫系统并不是静态的。

But then the immune system is not static.

它不仅日复一日地不断变化，而且随着你从免疫系统尚不成熟的婴儿，到中年人，再到免疫系统开始衰退的老年人，它也会随着时间推移而演变。

It's constantly changing not only from day to day, but it also evolves over time as you go from an infant whose immune system is very naive, hasn't been exposed to very many things to somebody in middle age, to an elderly person whose immune system is starting to fail.

因此，我们认为它不仅是一个三维模型，更是一个四维模型，因为它会随时间变化。

And so we think of it as as a three d model, but it's four dimensional because it changes over time.

尽管人们已经研究免疫系统数十年，并逐步拼凑出哪些细胞承担何种功能，以及这些不同系统的主要作用是什么。

People have been studying the immune system, though, for decades and slowly piecing together which cells appear to do what, what the major roles for those different systems are.

那么，这与我们迄今为止所了解的内容有何不同？

So how is this different from what we've learned so far?

人们一直关注B细胞、T细胞、中性粒细胞和淋巴细胞。

People have been looking at the B cells and the T cells, the neutrophils and the lymphocytes.

我们感兴趣的不仅仅是系统中的不同参与者，还有它们如何相互作用以及随时间如何变化？

What we're interested in is not just what are the different players in the system, but how do they interact with each other and how do they change over time?

所以，真正发生变化的是这一点。

So that's really what's changing.

系统生物学这一整个概念仍然相对较新。

The whole concept of systems biology is still relatively new.

源自科技行业，系统思维主要是一种由大数据等技术推动的技术，即我们收集海量数据、处理数据、发现模式，进而洞察潜在的作用机制。

And coming out of the tech industry, systems thinking is a technology primarily that is enabled by things like big data, you know, our ability to collect huge amounts of data and process that and see patterns and then see underlying mechanisms of action.

因此，我们将这种技术应用于对生物学的这种思考方式，使我们能够理解比仅仅研究肥大细胞或T细胞多得多的复杂性。

So we're bringing the technology to this way of thinking about biology, which allows us to understand so much more complexity than we can if we're just studying mast cells or T cells.

确实如此。

Indeed.

所以，如果你是一位神经科学家，正在研究单个脑细胞，那么类比来说，你就不是只观察那个脑区的单个脑细胞，而是会查看整个大脑的MRI扫描，观察它在体内的工作状态，从而弄清该细胞在整体中的作用。

So if if you were a neuroscientist and you were studying individual brain cells, the comparison would be rather than just look at that brain cell in that brain region, I'm gonna look at an MRI scan of a whole brain and how it's working in situ to work out what role that cell plays, but in the big picture.

是的。

Yeah.

完全正确。

That's exactly right.

这个比喻太好了。

That's a great analogy.

那么你是怎么做的呢？

So how are you doing it?

如果你走进门，克里斯，坐下来对医生说：嘿，医生，我的免疫系统怎么样？

If you walk in the door, Chris, and sit down and say, hey, doc, how's my immune system?

你的医生其实并不知道。

Your doctor doesn't really know.

他们可以做一个全血细胞计数，得到构成你免疫系统的细胞数量。

You know, they can do a complete blood count and get the number of cells you have that make up your immune system.

但除此之外，你并没有获得太多额外的信息。

But you're not really getting a lot of additional information beyond that.

因此，我们将深入到分子层面，收集你免疫系统中所有不同组成部分的数据，并将这些数据输入我们的模型，以便以比当前常规血液检测更精细的方式，构建你今天的免疫基线状态。

So we're going all the way down to the molecular level and collecting this across all the different actors in your immune system and plugging those into our models so that we can create your baseline immune state today in a far more detailed way than you can currently do with a typical blood test.

然后，我们希望追踪你的免疫系统随时间的变化。

And then what we want to do is track your immune system over time.

因此，我们的项目是一个五年计划，将在五年内多次对人群进行采样，以便观察免疫系统如何变化——不仅是在你健康时的基线状态，我们还想挑战你的免疫系统，以观察其功能性的反应。

So our project is a five year plan to sample people multiple times over the course of five years so that we can see how it changes, not just how it looks at your baseline when you're healthy, but we also want to challenge your immune system so that we can see how it functionally responds.

而我们真正关注的是这种免疫反应的变异性。

And in fact, what we're really driving at is this immune response variability.

为什么有些人能轻松应对新冠，而另一些人却因此丧生？

Why do some people brush off COVID and other people die?

我们挑战你免疫系统的方式，被称为‘威胁’或‘损伤’，也就是：‘这里有个入侵者’。

The way we want to challenge your immune system is going to be, they call it a threat or an insult, which is like, oh, there's an invader here.

现在，我的免疫系统必须做出反应。

Now my immune system has to mount a response.

疫苗就是这么做的。

Vaccines do that.

它们会挑战你的免疫系统，以便我们观察哪些免疫细胞会前来应战，这种反应是有益的而非有害的。

They challenge your immune system so that we can see what soldiers show up for battle in a way that is beneficial as opposed to harmful.

我们会了解你的基线状态。

So we'll see what your baseline is.

我们会观察你的功能反应，以及它在五年内的变化。

We'll see what your functional response is, and we'll see how it changes over five years.

一旦我们收集了所有这些数据，我们就会构建出这些强大的模型，不仅能量化你的免疫系统及其反应方式，还能开始预测它在你衰老或面对下一次威胁时的反应。

Once we collect all that data, then we'll be building these incredible models that can not only quantify your system and how it responds, but then we can start making predictions about how it will respond as you age or to the next threat.

但是，简，实际的可视化结果看起来是什么样的呢？

What does the actual visual readout look like though, Jane?

因为我用的类比是，比如大脑结构的MRI扫描，你可以将大脑某一部分与另一部分的交流叠加显示，然后比较我的大脑这部分与那部分的交流方式，和你的大脑如何做同样的事，并将两者叠加起来。

Because I use the analogy of, say, an MRI scan of a brain structure that you could then superimpose one bit of the brain talking to another, and you could compare how my this part of the brain talks to that bit of the brain with how your brain does the same thing, and we could overlay the two.

那么，对于免疫系统来说，它会是什么样子呢？

So what will it look like for the immune system then?

那么，什么样的读出结果能让我看到自己相对于普通人群的位置，以及与你的比较，还有我接种疫苗前后的免疫状态呢？

What will the readout be that will enable me to see where I sit relative to the general population and compared to you, and my pre vaccination and post vaccination immune state as it were?

这是个非常好的问题。

That's an excellent question.

而且，回顾人类基因组计划，弗朗西斯·柯林斯、克雷格·文特尔以及其他领导者都非常专注于科学和数据收集。

And, you know, going back to the Human Genome Project, you know, Francis Collins and Craig Venter and the other leaders of the Human Genome Project were very focused on the science and collecting the data.

但正是转化专家将这些成果转化为医生在诊室中可以使用的报告。

But it took translational experts to translate that into reports that clinicians can use in the doctor's office.

我们的董事会成员之一是莱娜·艾维，她是23andMe公司的两位联合创始人之一，这家公司把遗传信息转化为面向公众的解读。

One of our board members is Lanea Avey, who is one of the two cofounders of the company 23andMe, which took that genetic information and translated it for the general public.

所以，既有原始的科学，也有翻译者。

So there's the original science and then there's the translators.

然后你可以将这些内容翻译给医生，或者翻译给公众。

And then you can translate either to doctors or you can translate to the public.

因此，我们正在开展最初的科学研究。

And so we're doing the initial science.

一旦我们弄清楚了这些，就会开始思考如何促进向临床实践的转化，以及如何让患者理解这些内容。

And once we get that figured out, we will then start to think about how to facilitate the translation to clinical practice and how to make this understandable for patients.

你去达沃斯要做什么？

What are you going do in Davos?

达沃斯是寻找具有系统思维的全球领袖的绝佳机会。

Davos is one of the greatest opportunities to find global leaders who are thinking in a system oriented way.

因此，我们希望将我们的系统免疫学带到这群人面前。

And so we want to bring our systems immunology to that group of people.

我们想解释这个项目。

We want to explain the project.

我们希望让更多人了解它。

We want to make people aware of it.

这是一个结识卫生领袖、政府领袖、商业领袖和政策制定者的绝佳机会。

It's a great opportunity to meet health leaders, governmental leaders, business leaders, and policymakers.

我们正试图发起一场运动。

We're trying to start a movement.

我们正试图利用技术来开展更好的科学，以便将我们从科学基础上获得的理解转化为一种新的医学实践方式。

We're trying to harness technology to do better science so that we can take what we understand from a scientific basis and translate that into a new way of practicing medicine.

你一出生，我们就对你的基因组进行测序，这不仅能帮助我们更快地识别罕见遗传病，还能揭示你的潜在风险因素。

The minute you're born, we sequence your genome, which helps us first of all identify rare genetic diseases much more quickly, but also gives us what your potential risk factors are.

基因并非命运，拥有某个基因并不意味着你一定会生病。

Genes are not fate, so just because you have a gene doesn't necessarily mean you will get sick.

但如果你能在生命早期就了解这些风险因素，就可能做出选择，尽可能保护自己。

But if you know about these risk factors early on in your life, you might make choices to protect yourself as much as possible.

我们希望这能成为第一步，第二步是解码你的免疫系统并长期追踪它。

We would love for that to be the first step and the second step is to decode your immune and to track it over time.

如果解码患者的免疫系统就像二十一世纪的听诊器，会怎样呢？

What if decoding the patient's immune was like the twenty first century version of a stethoscope?

我们可以做些什么来支持你的免疫系统，防止它发展成疾病？

What can we do to support your immune system so that it doesn't develop into sickness?

这难道不令人兴奋吗？

Isn't that exciting?

那是简·麦克法兰。

Jane Metcalfe there.

她是人类免疫项目执行主席。

She's the executive chair of the Human Immune Project.

《裸体科学家》播客由Spitfire制作，该公司为英国企业提供经济高效的语音、互联网和IP工程服务。

The naked scientist podcast is produced in association with Spitfire, cost effective voice, Internet, and IP engineering services for UK businesses.

了解Spitfire如何赋能您的公司，请访问spitfire.co.uk。

Find out how Spitfire can empower your company at spitfire.co.uk.

节目中的音乐由Epidemic Sound赞助，为音频和视频制作提供完美配乐。

Music in the program is sponsored by Epidemic Sound, perfect music for audio and video productions.

这里是克里斯·史密斯为您主持的《裸体科学家》播客。

And this is the Naked Scientist podcast with me, Chris Smith.

本周，我们将了解科学如何被推上达沃斯世界经济论坛的议程首位。

And this week, we are finding out how science is being pushed to the top of the agenda at the World Economic Forum in Davos.

不过我们现在前往斯德哥尔摩，听取诺沃特龙聚变公司首席执行官彼得·罗斯的见解。

We're heading to Stockholm now though to hear from Peter Rose, who's the chief executive officer at Novotron Fusion.

正如其名所示，他从事聚变能源研究，这是一种较轻的原子核结合形成较重原子核并在此过程中释放巨大能量的过程。

Now as the name implies, he works in fusion energy, which is the process where lighter atomic nuclei combine to form heavier nuclei and release enormous amounts of energy in the process.

这正是太阳所依赖的反应，其提供清洁且有些人称之为无限能源的潜力，已经吸引了科学家们一个多世纪的关注。

This is the very same reaction that powers the sun, and its potential to provide clean and some say limitless energy has captivated scientists for more than a century.

但彼得和他的团队认为，他们现在可能已经克服了这一难题。

But Peter and his team think they now may have overcome it.

我首先问他解释其中的挑战，以及他们认为是如何克服这些挑战的。

And I began by asking him to explain first the challenges and then how he thinks they may have overcome them.

这种方法实际上是试图将核聚变工业化，这项工作已经进行了数十年，接近一百年了，即如何利用太阳核心中产生能量的过程，为我们地球上的生活提供能源。

The approach is to actually try to industrialize fusion, work that has been done for so many years, almost one hundred years now, how to harness the process that is in the core of the sound that gives us the energy that we can live on here on Earth as well.

人类和科学家们在短短几秒钟内就想到：哇，既然我们理解了这一过程，我们该如何在地球上实现它呢？

And it didn't take many seconds for humanity and the scientists to think, wow, now that we understand the process, how can we make that happen on Earth?

我们能否以某种技术实现规模化应用？

Can we do that in scale, some kind of technology that we can do this?

因为这将是安全的。

Because it would be safe.

它将是近乎无限的能源，因为燃料储量丰富，并且能提供稳定的基荷电力，满足人类未来的所有需求，同时不会对气候、可持续性和环境造成任何负面影响。

It would be more or less endless of energy because the fuel is abundant, and it would be a stable baseload power that would serve all the needs that we will have for humanity without having any bad aspects to climate or sustainability and the environment.

但显然，我们地球上还没有核聚变反应堆，因为这真的非常困难。

But obviously, we don't have fusion reactors here on Earth yet because it's really, really tricky to do that.

你需要极高的温度。

You need to have extremely high temperatures.

我们说的是1.5亿度或更高，这是太阳核心温度的十倍。

We're talking about 150,000,000 degrees or more, which is 10 times higher than the temperature in the core of the Sun.

科学已经将核聚变推进到一个阶段，我们解决了大多数问题，但仍剩下一些小障碍。

Science has driven it to a stage where we have solved most of the problems, but still a few small hurdles left.

其中之一是实现这种所谓聚变等离子体的稳定约束。

One of them is to have a stable confinement of this so called fusion plasma.

也就是说，当你将氢气加热到这些极高的温度时，原子会分裂，这种等离子体很难在不接触容器壁的情况下被限制在装置内。

That is, when you heat up hydrogen gas to these extremely high temperatures, the atoms rip apart and this plasma is hard to contain in this machine without touching the vessel boundaries.

全世界各个项目现在都在努力解决这个问题，以实现为人类提供聚变能源。

That is what all the different projects around the world is now trying to solve to be able to have fusion energy for humanity.

你们的方法有什么不同？

And how does your approach differ?

既然有这么多项目都在试图攻克这个难题，而几十年来它一直是一个极其难解的问题，那你们的方法是什么？

Or if there are lots and lots of projects trying to crack this nut, and it has proved to be a very hard nut to crack for decades, what's your approach?

要实现这种极高温度的等离子体，你需要将其置于真空容器中，因为它不能接触任何东西。

To be able to do that, having this extremely high tempered plasma, you need to have it in a vacuum vessel because it can't really touch anything.

这很明显。

It's obvious.

我们没有任何材料能够承受这种高温。

We don't have any materials that can stand the type of heat.

所以它必须悬浮在真空中。

So it needs to be floating in mid vacuum.

我们使用磁铁，通过强大的磁力确保等离子体悬浮在真空容器的中央。

And we use magnets, strong magnetic force to make sure that the plasma is floating in the middle of these vacuum vessels.

这正是难点所在，因为它就像把一个球平衡在倒置的碗顶上。

And this is the tricky part because it's like balancing a ball on top of a bowl that is upside down.

这是一种不稳定的等离子体约束状态，等离子体总是倾向于撞击容器的内壁。

It's kind of an unstable confinement of the plasma where the plasma really wants to hit the walls of this vessel.

一旦发生，这个过程就会停止。

And when it does, the process just stops.

这正是大多数方法试图实现的。

That is what most approaches are trying to do.

Novotron聚变在平衡方面更出色吗？

And is Novotron fusion better at doing the balancing act?

没错。

Exactly.

因为我们所做的，是让球位于碗的内部。通过一种具有这种特性的磁构型，它将是一种自稳定解决方案，一种本质上稳定的系统，这与所有其他概念恰恰相反。

Because what we are doing is instead we have the ball inside that bowl By having a magnetic configuration that has this type of behavior, it will be a self stabilizing solution, something that is inherently stable, which is rather the opposite from all the other concepts.

是什么突破让你实现了这一点，而其他人却没有做到？

What's been the breakthrough that's enabled you to realize that, that others have not?

这种见解其实已经存在了几十年，但没有人真正弄清楚如何设计磁体并产生具有这种特性、即各个方向都呈凹形的磁场。

This insight has been known for decades actually, but no one has really figured out how to design the magnets and to create the magnetic field, which these type of properties, with this concave in all directions behavior.

而这就是我们瑞典的发明家约翰·贾德贝里真正解决的问题。

And that is what our inventor here in Sweden, John Jaddeberry, really figured out.

同时，只要磁场具有这种形状，就不需要非常非常强。

At the same time, the magnetic field doesn't need to be very, very strong as long as it has this shape.

他向科学家们展示了这一点，他们说：这就是缺失的关键部分。

And this was something that he presented to the scientists and they were saying, this is the missing piece.

这就是能为我们目前缺乏的稳定性带来解决方案的方法。

This is the solution that will add the stability that we're lacking right now.

你们已经进行过测试了吗？

Have you tested it?

我们已经在斯德哥尔摩建造了第一台机器，即诺顿装置。

We have built the first machine, the Norton one here in Stockholm.

它已经投入运行，我们已经用它进行了一年的实验。

It has been commissioned and we've been running it for one year now doing experiments.

到目前为止，结果非常好。

And so far, it looks really, really good.

那么你是乐观的了。

You're optimistic then.

你觉得这个能成功吗？

You think this is gonna work?

我认为这是多年来我听过的最令人兴奋的关于核聚变的访谈之一，因为真的有人告诉我，我们可能找到了解决方案。

This is one of the most exciting interviews about nuclear fusion, I think, I've heard in a very long time because actually someone is saying to me we have a possible solution.

是的，我希望如此。

Yeah, I hope so.

实际上，我们认为我们找到了缺失的关键部分。

Actually, we think we have what we're missing.

我们深信不疑。

We are convinced.

是的，我们发现了一种能显著降低这种装置建造复杂性的方式，这给了我们希望。

Yeah, we have found something that dramatically reduces the complexity of building such a machine, and that gives us hope.

你将在达沃斯做些什么？

What are you going to be doing in Davos?

我们认识到，要让商业核聚变成为现实，我们必须理解并让别人明白，这其中也蕴含着巨大的经济价值。

We see that one of the big things about making commercial fusion a reality, we need to understand and make people understand that there's large economical values in this as well.

但还需要就能源获取的公平性展开重要讨论。

But there are also big discussions needed to be held regarding the fairness about access to energy.

像撒哈拉以南非洲这样的能源匮乏国家，或亚洲某些地区，我们应该运用哪些经济手段，确保这种技术不仅在西方国家实施，而是在全球范围内推广？

The countries that are really lacking energy, like Sub Sahara, for instance, or places in Asia, what economical muscles should we use to make sure that this type of technology is not only implemented here in the Western countries, but on a global scale?

我们对人类负有什么责任，以确保我们拥有一个对所有人都有效的解决方案？

What is our responsibility to humanity to make sure that we have a solution that works well for all people?

人们常说，聚变能源永远是十年之后的事。

The classic line is that fusion is ten years away, and it always will be.

你是想告诉我，这句话现在要被推翻了吗？

Are you telling me that quote's now gonna be wrong?

那么，你们实现这一目标的时间表是什么？包括以平等和公平的方式实现？

What is your timeline then to do this, including doing it in an in an equal and fair way?

长期以来，人们一直说聚变能源还有三十年才能实现，所有这些都还要等三十年。

What people have been saying for quite a long time is that it's like thirty years away, and all this will be thirty years away.

所以你说的十年时间表相当乐观。

So your ten years is pretty optimistic.

但我们试图将乐观与现实结合起来，认为我们将在2040年之前实现向电网供电。

But we try to combine optimism with realism and say that we will be able to produce energy to the grid before 2040.

为了实现这一点，必须满足一些条件，比如需要有足够的资金支持，以确保所有所需技术都能得到开发。

For us to be able to do that, some things need to be fulfilled, like the financial muscles need to be there to make sure that all these different technologies that is needed to be developed can be done.

此外，我们还谈到监管、政治意愿以及各种合作关系，所有这些都需要协调一致才能实现这一目标。

But also, we talk about regulations, a political will, different type of partnerships, all those things need to be aligned to be able to do that.

但我们相信这是可以做到的。

But we see that it can be done.

至少在2040年前实现这一目标并非不切实际，如果我们真正认为这对人类来说是必需的，甚至可能更早实现。

It is not unrealistic to have it at least ready for 2040, maybe even earlier if we are really convinced that this is a necessity for humanity.

所以，竞赛已经开始了。

So the race is on.

我们能在2040年前用上聚变能源吗？

Are we going to be plugging into fusion power by 2040?

这是我长期以来听到的关于这一主题最令人兴奋和乐观的看法。

That is certainly the most exciting and optimistic outlook that I have heard on this subject in a very long time.

这里是彼得·罗斯。

Peter Rose there.

他是诺沃特龙聚变公司的首席执行官。

He's the chief executive officer at Novotron Fusion.

接下来，我们将前往科罗拉多大学博尔德分校，采访齐亚·莫拉比。

Next, we're going to the University of Colorado Boulder and Zia Morabi.

当齐亚不沉浸在自己美丽的周边环境骑行热情中时，他大部分时间都在研究通过改变农作物种植方式所能带来的环境和社会效益。

Now when he's not out indulging his passion for cycling in his beautiful surroundings, Zia spends much of his time studying the environmental and societal benefits that can be delivered by changing the way we farm crops.

他主张倾听自然。

He's advocating for listening to nature.

毕竟，自然已经进化了数百万年，形成了高效运作生态系统的机制，而我们的努力常常与之背道而驰。

It's had, after all, millions of years to evolve ways to make ecosystems work efficiently, and our efforts often flow contrary to it.

他所倡导的方法被称为多样化农业。

The approach he's advocating for is called diversified agriculture.

但这在实践中意味着什么？

But does that mean in practice?

这在经济上合理吗？

And does it make economic sense?

多样化农业是指在农业系统中重新引入多样性。

Diversified agriculture is the act of adding diversity back into agricultural systems.

如果你观察自然界，你几乎从来看不到单一作物甚至单一植物独自生长。

If you look in nature, you never really see one crop or even one plant growing by itself.

你总是看到动物和植物混合在一起。

You always see animals and plants in mixtures.

植物之间相互作用，植物与动物相互作用，它们共同构成一个生态系统。

Plants are interacting with plants and plants are interacting with animals and they're all interacting in an ecosystem.

多样化农业的理念是将这些自然原理应用到我们的农业系统中，使其更贴近自然。

The idea of diversified agriculture is to take these ideas and build them into our agricultural systems, so they model nature better.

自然界已经运作了五千亿年，进化一直在努力让一切高效运转。

Nature's been working for five hundred billion years, evolution has been working at it to make things work.

因此，当我们种植单一作物，比如一片全是小麦的田地时，我们实际上是在强迫自然改变。

So when we grow a monoculture and it's a field of wheat, and it's exclusively wheat, we're basically forcing nature's hand then.

这些植物并不喜欢这样生长。

And those plants do not like growing like that.

它们并没有进化出适应这种生长方式的能力。

They haven't evolved really to grow like that.

你的意思是，如果我们更贴近自然，可能会获得更好的结果。

And we're possibly getting a less good deal than if we were a bit more natural is what you're saying.

作为物种，我们喜欢简化事物，对吧？

We like to like simplify things as a species, right?

让事情变得更简单。

And to make things easier.

因此，为了方便，我们开始把同样的作物种在一起。

And so to make things easier, we started growing the same things together.

这种模式延续了数千年。

It tipped along like this for millennia.

但到了上个世纪，我们从农业扩张阶段转向了集约化阶段。

But what happened was, in the last century, we've gone from this phase of agricultural expansion to one of intensification.

我们有一个包含种子、肥料、水和机械的综合方案。

We had this package deal of seeds and fertilisers and water and machinery.

我们基本上以一种不会因施加过多氮肥而倒伏的方式种植作物。

And we basically grew crops in ways that they don't fall down when you put too much nitrogen on them.

在这个过程中，我们极大地提高了这些土地的利用强度。

And in that process, we have intensified all of that land.

实际上，我们把自己陷入了一个棘手的境地。

And actually we've got ourselves into a bit of a sticky situation.

病虫害爆发、氮素流失和气候变化，所有这些问题都源于我们对单一种植的强化过程。

Pest breaks and nitrogen runoff and climate change, all of these issues are emerging from this intensification process that we've seen around monocultures.

因此，你的观点是，回归更自然、更多样化的耕作方式的好处在于，自然界会提供一些解决方案。

And therefore your argument would be that the benefit of reverting to a more natural, diversified approach is that some of the solutions will be provided by nature.

我们不需要再施用那么多化学物质。

We won't have to sling on so many chemicals.

正是如此。

Exactly.

而且有很多证据表明这一点。

And there's a lot of evidence to show this.

经典的例子就是三姐妹种植系统。

The classic example would be the three sisters system.

豆类与南瓜和玉米一起种植。

You have beans growing with squash, growing with maize.

豆类为玉米提供氮素，南瓜覆盖地面以控制杂草。

Beans provide the nitrogen to the maize and the squash covers the ground so it controls the weed.

同时，你还能获得一系列营养丰富的产出。

And then you also get a package of really nutritional output.

事实证明，这并不是一个孤立的案例。

It just so happens that this isn't an isolated case.

存在许多不同的多样化农业系统。

There are many different diversified agricultural systems.

中国的水稻种植系统、瑞士的花带、爱荷华州的草原带，或拉丁美洲的银色牧业系统，等等不胜枚举。

Agriculture and rice systems in China, or flower strips in Switzerland, or prairie strips in Iowa, or silver pastoral systems in Latin America and the list goes on.

所有这些系统都带来一些好处。

And all of these systems offer some benefits.

因此它们可以控制害虫。

So they'll control pests.

因此你可以减少高达60%的农药使用量，或者控制高达90%的氮素流失，或者提高单位土地的产量，无需使用那么多土地。

And so you can apply like 60% less pesticide or they will control nitrogen runoff, like up to 90% in cases, or they will lead to yield benefits and more output per unit of land, you don't have to use so much land.

因此我们确实有充分的证据表明这是有效的。

So we actually have good evidence that this works.

但它的效果能足够好吗？

Can it work well enough though?

因为一方面，农民们，尤其是在目前的英国，表示他们几乎赚不到钱。

Because on the one hand you've got farmers, especially in The UK at the moment, they're saying they're barely making any money.

而你提到的集约化已经压低了价格。

And the intensification that you mentioned has driven down prices.

所以超市可以以极低的价格大量购买外观完美的胡萝卜。

So supermarkets can buy huge amounts of perfect looking carrots, but they don't pay very much for them.

所以这是一个观点。

So that's one point.

第二个观点是我们的人口正在增长。

And the second point is we do have a rising world population.

目前地球上已有85亿人，比过去二十年增加了30%。

Eight and a half billion of us on the planet now, up 30% in the last two decades.

人们正在挨饿。

People are hungry.

如果我们不继续像现在这样过度耕作，许多人认为，我们就无法生产足够的粮食来养活所有人。

And if we don't keep flogging the ground the way we are, many argue, well, we just won't have the food productivity to feed everybody.

那么，我们能这样继续下去吗？

So can we do it this way?

过去六十年的农业发展，实际上一直建立在这样一个理念上：通过我刚才提到的这种单一栽培模式来提高产量。

Agricultural development over the last sixty years has really been predicated on the idea that you have this yield that is bolstered by monocultures in this package deal that I just talked about.

但现实是，这种方式带来了巨大的环境代价，仅气候变化造成的损失就高达数亿美元。

Now, the reality is that has brought massive environmental costs, which are actually costing us hundreds of millions of dollars of damages from climate change.

仅在美国，每年用于清除水中硝酸盐的费用就高达数十亿美元。

Even in The US alone, you're talking about like tens of billions of dollars a year in cleaning nitrates out of water.

在用水方面，我们90%的用水量都用于农业。

When it comes to water use, 90% of our water use is going to agriculture.

我们三分之一的温室气体排放可以追溯到农业。

A third of our greenhouse gas emissions can be traced back to agriculture.

因此，当你思考当前的粮食生产模式时，它实际上对环境有害且成本极高。

So when you think about the current paradigm and the way we produce food, it's actually environmentally damaging and extremely costly.

但这还只是触及了与抗生素耐药性等相关健康问题带来的损害。

But that doesn't even touch on all of the health damages associated with antibiotic resistance and things like that.

每年用于农业补贴的金额约为9000亿美元。

About $900,000,000,000 is spent on agricultural subsidies each year.

这表明，有大量资金被投入到支撑当今世界破坏性农业体系中。

That shows that there's actually a lot of money that's going into propping up the damaging agricultural system that we see in the world today.

实际上，存在大量机会，无需动用新的纳税人资金，而是将纳税人已支付的、用于污染地球的资金重新分配，用于支持更具多样性、对地球影响更小的农业。

And actually there's a lot of opportunity that exists for not taking new taxpayer money, but actually rediverting the money that taxpayers are already paying to pollute the planet and actually putting it towards supporting more diversified agriculture that has less of an impact on the planet.

但真的是这样吗，是

Is it though, is

那这是一个教育问题吗？

it an education problem then?

因此，与其把钱花在化学品和技术上，我们更应该把钱投入到教师身上，让他们去传播这些农业实践。

So rather than us spending money on chemicals and technologies per se, what we should be spending money on are teachers who can go and spread the word about these agricultural practices.

这将是物有所值的投资。

And that would be money well spent.

没有一种万能解决方案。

There's not one silver bullet.

我们需要对现有实践进行教育，但同时也存在机会——当你审视当今的农业企业时，它们通常只关注在单一种植环境或非常接近的大豆-玉米轮作中改良特定种子。

We're going to need education around the existing practices, but there's also and I think this is the opportunity for the World Economic Forum when you look at the agricultural businesses of today, they typically are looking at improving particular seeds in monoculture environments or very close soy maze rotations.

它们并没有考虑通过销售构成农场生态系统的种子组合来获得潜在收益的理念。

They're not looking at this idea of the benefits that they could gain from selling packages of seeds that make up an ecosystem on a farm.

英国罗特姆斯特研究所的研究人员做了一个非常有趣的案例研究，他们投入研究资金，试图理解可行的新体系。

There's a really interesting case study from researchers at Rothamsted Research in The UK, where they actually put research dollars towards trying to understand new systems that could work.

他们发现了一种非常复杂的间作系统。

And they found this really intricate intercropping system.

他们以玉米作为主要作物。

They had maize that was the main focal crop.

他们中间种了千斤藤，外圈则种了狼尾草。

They had this desmodium plant that grew in the middle and then they had this naphyr grass on the outside.

这非常创新，因为千斤藤能驱赶危害玉米的蛾类害虫，而狼尾草则吸引这些害虫，并同时吸引寄生蜂来捕食它们。

It was really innovative because the desmodium, what it did is it pushed out the pests, these moths away from the maize and the naphyr branch attracted them in and also attracted in parasitoids that killed them.

千斤藤还能做其他一些出色的事情，比如控制非洲撒哈拉以南地区玉米面临的头号问题——独脚金。

And the Desmodium also did these other cool things like control striga, which is a number one problem with maze in Sub Saharan Africa.

如今，投入这项研究的资金带来了这一创新系统，使农民的产量翻了三倍。

Now research dollars put towards that came up with this innovative system that tripled farmers yields.

这充分说明，当研究资金投入到这些领域时，就能产生非常有趣的创新。

It just goes to show that when research money is put into these things, you can have really interesting innovations.

因此，我设想一个未来，那时先正达和拜耳这样的公司会销售种子组合包。

So I imagine a future where the Syngenta's and the Bayes of the world are actually selling packages of seeds.

我们离这一天并不遥远，因为在过去的十年里，他们已经开始用微生物包衣种子，因为他们逐渐意识到微生物对植物的好处——能够减少作物生长过程中的虫害和损害。

And we're not too far away because they've already over the last decade started to coat seeds with microbes, because they've started to see the benefits actually that microbes can offer to plants to reduce pest and damage when they're growing.

这实际上只是这些公司目前所处位置的下一步而已。

It's only actually a step away from where these companies currently are right now.

显然，我们需要这个领域的初创企业，也需要对该领域的投资。

Obviously, we need startups in this space and we'll need investment in this space.

但我确实看到了未来巨大的机遇，以及未来可能的发展方向和经济潜力，我认为我们才刚刚触及皮毛。

But I do see a lot of opportunity in terms of the future and where the future could go and where the economic opportunities are, I think we've scratched the surface there.

我认为这正是世界经济发展论坛上人们感到非常有趣的地方。

And I think that's where it's really interesting to people at the World Economic Forum.

确实，来自科罗拉多大学博尔德分校的齐亚·莫拉比。

Indeed, Zia Morabi there at the University of Colorado Boulder.

好了，最后让我们回到节目开头提到的弗雷德·芬特尔。

Well, finally, let's circle back to Fred Fenter whom we heard from at the top of the program.

我想知道，他将如何判断达沃斯的前沿科学之家是否取得了成功？

How will he know, I wondered, if the Frontier Science House in Davos has been a success?

这个项目的热情触动了本周参与其中的每一个人。

The enthusiasm of this project is one which touches everybody that has participated over the course of the week.

我希望，新兴科学和变革性科学这一主题能在领袖群体以及我们在达沃斯聚集的众人中获得应得的关注和能见度。

And I hope that there will be a stronger sense that the subject of new science, of transformative science, will have received the focus and the visibility it deserves within the community of leaders and within the community of the people that we've brought together in Davos.

这是来自前沿出版社的弗雷德·文特尔。

Fred Venter at Frontiers there.

毫无疑问，我们后续会跟进弗雷德和他的同事们，了解他们的进展如何。

No doubt we'll be checking in with Fred and his colleagues to find out subsequently how they got on.

你们可以在周五收听我们的节目，届时我们将盘点科学新闻界正在掀起波澜的动态。

You can catch us next on Friday when we'll be surveying what's making waves in the world of science news.

感谢前沿出版社对本周节目的支持。

Thanks to Frontiers for supporting this week's program.

《裸体科学家》由劳斯莱斯赞助。

The Naked Scientist is sponsored by Rolls Royce.

我是克里斯·史密斯。

I'm Chris Smith.

来自我们团队的每个人，感谢您的收听，我们下次再见。

And from everyone here on the team, thank you for listening, And until next time.

再见。

Goodbye.