波动观点661：UVXY的乐趣与年终波动疗法

是的。

Yeah.

它们已经上市一年了，但我还是没人愿意交易它们。

They've been they've been going for a year, and I still can't get anybody to trade them.

我同意你的看法。

I was with you.

我确实希望市场上有更多流动性，所以我觉得周度期权会有帮助。

I I wanted more liquidity out there, so I thought I thought weeklies would help.

但不知为何，如果你连月度期权都搞不定，那周度期权在VIX上就更没人交易了。

And yet, for whatever reason, I mean, if you can't get the monthlies, I guess, the the weeklies are even in VIX.

看看VIX除了标准周度期权之外的情况，交易量确实稀少。

Look at VIX outside of the standard weeklies, and tough gets a little sparse out there.

但我不确定，拉塞尔。

But I don't know, Russell.

回到早期的做法，这主意并不坏。

It's not a bad idea going back to earlier.

也许我们需要开设一个新板块，叫做波动率心理学，深入探讨人们根深蒂固的波动率心结。

Maybe we need a new segment, the vol psychology segment, and we can get into people's, deep seated vol hang ups.

我已经发现，我对UVXY、VXX和VIXD的15看跌期权有偏见。

We've already discovered for me, I am biased against u v x y and v x x and VIXD's 15 put.

看来我还有很多心理障碍需要克服，罗兹先生。

So I clearly have a lot to work through, mister Rhodes.

你觉得呢？

What do you think?

所以，我们实际上是在做一期关于一个我们根本讨厌的市场的播客。

So well, we're we're basically doing a podcast on on apparently a market that we just hate.

是啊。

Yeah.

我们讨厌它的一切。

We hate it all.

我们讨厌它的一切。

We hate it all.

但你是喜欢它的。

But you loved it.

是啊。

It yeah.

我觉得这是我们爱恨交加的一种东西。

I think it's one that we love to hate.

所以它就是

So there it's

我正努力变得更开明。

I'm trying to be more open minded.

我正试着让UVXY的粉丝们也拥有他们发光发热的机会。

I'm trying to let the UVXY folks and have to let them have their day in the sun as well.

我们不能总是在这个节目里一味地讨厌东西。

Know, we can't just be hating things all the time on this show.

每当我提到UVXY或VXX，你就会不屑一顾地撇嘴。

Whenever I tossed you on like UVXY or VXX, you just turn your nose up and scoff.

所以我正在努力

So I'm trying

不要皱鼻子不屑一顾，因为这些产品其实有很多很好的用途，但它们往往——在我看来——是短期交易导向的，尤其是那些长期的肯定如此。

to be more turn my nose up and scoff because there there are great uses for for those products, but they tend to be, you know, short term trading oriented in my mind, at least the long ones for sure.

我坚信，做空波动率是有必要的，你应当持有一些做空波动率的头寸，让它持续为你稳步增值，尤其是在我们当前这种非常有利的正向市场结构下。

You know, I'm a big believer that short volatility that you want to have some short volatility exposure just to continue to grind higher on your behalf, especially when we're in some really cool contango like we are right now.

你知道，我觉得拥有这样的头寸非常棒。

You know, that I just feel like that's great exposure to have.

我甚至研究过，持有SVIX与一些持续的SVIX做空策略之间的对比。

I even took a look at, you know, comparing owning SVIX with some consistent short strategies in SVIX.

自年中以来，它的表现确实更好了，因为最近这段时间做空波动率一直很困难，或者说，回顾过去九个月左右，情况一直如此。

Really did better since mid year since it's been pretty tough to be short volatility or really going back I guess over the last nine months now.

所以，我喜欢它，因为它本该发挥的作用。

So, know, I like it for what it's supposed to do.

当我还在CBO时，研究部门有一位非常聪明的家伙，在Volmageddon之后的一次内部会议上，他说：‘我不明白大家为什么都这么焦虑。’

When I was at CBO, there was a really smart guy in research And and his comment when we had an internal meeting after Volmageddon was, I don't know what everybody's all upset about.

这些基金都发挥了应有的作用。

The funds did what they were supposed to do.

它们跟随着期货走势。

They followed the futures.

所以，你知道，现在它被触发了，也许期货才是原因，那就是另一回事了。

So, you know, that now the fact that it caught, you know, that maybe the futures caused it, that's a different story.

那是另一回事。

That's different story.

或者它们在比赛中间改变了规则。

Or the fact that they changed the rules of the game mid game.

这从来都不好玩，你知道，当他们做这种事的时候。

That's that's never fun, you know, when they when they do stuff like that.

而我正是从那里获得了这种心态，并经常与人分享。

And that that's actually where I got that mentality I would share around.

如果你持有长期头寸，你实际上就是在以买入市场虚值看涨或看跌期权的心态在操作。

If you own the long ones, you really are looking at the same mentality as buying an out of the money call or put on a market.

即使市场朝着你的方向有些移动，你仍然不会赚多少利润，甚至根本赚不到利润，因为普通期权的时间价值会持续衰减。

Even if you if, you know, if the market moves in your direction some, you're still not gonna make much of a profit or a profit at all because of the, you know, the time decay on a normal option.

但这就是我的思维方式。

So but that's just kinda how I think.

我认为，交易这些长期基金时，必须具备期权思维。

I I think you have to have an option mentality to to trade those long funds.

确实，进出得有点快。

Definitely a little bit quick to get in and get out.

好了，迈克尔，这是我们每半年一次的深度复盘，全面探讨所有关于UVXY的话题。

Well, Michael, this is our semi annual check-in deep dive onto all things UVXY.

在我们继续接下来的内容之前，你还有什么其他想法或要点想分享给正在考虑交易UVXY的观众吗？

Before we keep rolling with the rest of the show, are there any other thoughts or takeaways you wanna leave folks with when they're thinking about potentially trading UVXY, sir?

尽管说吧。

Have at it.

现在轮到你了。

The floor is yours.

现在是我们聚焦UVXY的时刻。

This is the moment where we shine a spotlight on UVXYs.

只是去了解这个产品。

Just just learn the product.

要知道它只追踪VXM1和VXM2。

Know that it that it tracks VXM one and VXM two exclusively.

它根本不关心VIX。

Doesn't doesn't care about VIX.

只有在每月一次，当VXM1需要下跌并触及VIX时，VIX才重要。

VIX only matters, like, once a month when m one needs to come down and touch it.

但那时，VXM1对UVXY价格的影响占到了4%到5%。

But at that point, m one is responsible for four or 5% of the influence over UVXY's price.

很遗憾，我没有VX30的实时报价，那是VXM1和VXM2组合的30天敞口。

It's unfortunately, I don't have a live quote of of VX 30, which is the the thirty day exposure of combination of of month one and month two.

但只要观察它，你就能了解所有这些ETP是如何波动的。

But just watching that will tell you everything about how all of these ETPs move.

在某些平台上，至少可以追踪其中一个基准指数，SPVXSP。

There there is a at least on some platforms, can you can track the one of the benchmarks, SPVXSP.

代码是，这是一个VIX 30指数。

ID, and that is a VIX 30 index.

所以你每天只需观察它的走势，就能看到你的所有ETP如何相对于它变动，几乎是点对点同步的。

So you just watch that move every day, and you'll see how all of your ETPs move relative to that, and it's basically tick for tick.

我想提一下SVIC，因为有很多人来找我，说：嘿，我就想做空波动率。

I would like to mention SVICs because there are a lot of people that that come to me and ask, you know, hey, I just want a short vol.

我想控制我的风险。

I want to limit my my risk.

我不希望在UVXY上卖出裸卖权之类的东西。

I don't want to be selling naked calls or anything like that on UVXY.

所以我干脆直接买入SVIC，我会让他们调出五年期的走势图，看看这个反向基金在标普500大幅回撤时会遭受多大的损失。

So I'll just go long SVICs, and I would ask them to pull up a a five year chart of it and just watch how damaged that inverse fund can can experience with big big SPX drawdowns.

即使UVXY和Ubix都创下了新低，它也远未达到其历史高点。

It's it's nowhere near its high even though UVXY and Ubix are are printing all time lows.

它的价格路径是依赖性的。

It's it's it's price path dependent.

如果你遇到气流空洞，就会被彻底碾压。

And if you ever hit a air pocket, you're just gonna get crushed.

有趣。

Interesting.

听起来你可能需要为Esmex做些球类疗法。

Sounds like you might need some ball therapy for Esmex.

我们都有这些产品。

We all have the products.

我们需要和迈克尔一起进行治疗。

We need our therapy with, Michael.

但没错，你说得对。

But, yes, you're right.

Esmex是个难搞的家伙。

Esmex is a a challenging beast.

大概这就是为什么我在接近年底时放任了我很多持仓。

Probably why I let a lot of mine go here as we're coming into the end.

十二月这里。

The December here.

说到放手，我们得继续进行节目。

Speaking of letting things go, we gotta keep going with the show.

我们已经讨论了很多关于VIX期货及其对所有UVXY相关事物的影响。

We've been talking a lot about VIX futures and their impact on all things UVXY.

归根结底，它们在波动率生态系统中驱动着大部分走势，听众们。

They kinda drive a lot of the boat at the end of the day out there in the vol ecosystem listeners.

就在我们节目开始之际，实际上，我们看到一月合约略微下跌了。

And as we're coming into this start of the show, actually, we saw, not surprisingly, a Jan coming down a bit.

节目刚开始时，一月期货下跌了将近一点，大约八成点。

The Jan future was down not quite a full point as we kicked off the show, about eight tenths of a point.

而我们看到Fab期货下跌了近半点，大约四成点。

And we had the fab future down almost half a point about four tenths of a point.

你知道，如果你一直看到八月，为什么不去呢？

You know, if you go all the way out to August because why not?

那正是我们上周见顶的地方。

That's that was kind of where we topped out last week.

今天节目开始时，我们大约在21.5的位置。

We were at about, about a 21 and a half coming in to start the show today.

那个月的期货大约在21.40。

That August future was at about a twenty one forty.

显然，离我们一直讨论的22点还有点距离，而且下跌了大约十分之一点。

So obviously shy of that 22 handle we've been talking about for a while and down about a tenth of a point out there.

先生。

Mr.

罗斯先生，我们先从您开始。

Rosie, we'll start with you, sir.

在2025年最后的波动率观点中，您对波动率期限结构有什么关注的吗，先生？

What is catching your eye on the vol term structure for our final vol views of 2025, sir?

很陡峭。

It's steep.

很陡峭。

It's steep.

我正在快速移动，看看它与欧洲的对比，判断我们是否仍然比欧洲更陡峭。

And I'm I'm I'm trying to move quickly and take a look at how it compares to Europe and see if we're still steeper than Europe.

但这个价差，一月合约要到21号才到期，所以我觉得它的到期周期稍长一些。

But that, I mean, that spread, and January doesn't expire until the twenty first, so it's a I guess it's a little bit longer expiration cycle.

但目前，V股票是14点，今天他们不开盘，但昨天一月期货结算价为16.60美元。

But right now, you know, V Stocks is at 14 and they're not open today, but they settled at six the January futures settled at $16.60 yesterday.

当你仔细看时，我们的价差要宽得多。

You know, we've got a much, much wider spread when you're taking a look.

我现在正在查看我的标签页。

I'm going through my tabs now.

今天没有什么愿意配合我们，但相对于VIX来说，现在的情况要剧烈得多。

Nothing wants to cooperate with us today, but it's much more dramatic right now with respect to VIX.

是的，相对于VIX，一月合约有整整三个点的溢价，而二月合约目前相对于现货价格有五个点的溢价。

Yeah, it's three full points with respect to VIX with January, and freaking February is a five point premium relative to spot fix right now.

你知道，如果我说话慢一点，我可以告诉你去年今天我们的位置。

You know, I I don't if if I speak very slowly, I can tell you where we were on this day last year.

远没有那么夸张，最多也就一个点左右。

Not nearly like that, basically about a point at the most.

而二月合约当时只比一月合约高出不到一个点。

And February was less than a point higher than January.

现在它有两点的溢价。

Right now it's at a two point premium.

我想提一下去年十二月和十一月的情况，当时我们看到市场走势非常异常，十二月合约一度维持高位，直到我们过了那次美联储会议。

I'll throw something out there that threw out when we saw how steep things were with respect to or just how funky things were with December and November this past year and December kind of holding up for a while until we got past that last Fed meeting.

如果你认为2026年初会出现波动率飙升，那么买入一月合约、做空二月合约看起来非常有吸引力。

If you think we're going to get a volatility spike in early twenty twenty six, buying the Jan future and shorten the Feb future really looks attractive.

因为如果你判断错了，你必须假设这两个合约之间的价差会收窄。

Because if you're wrong, you gotta assume the spread between those two is gonna narrow.

是的。

Yeah.

这几乎像是市场在为明年初的更多波动定价，考虑到最近的先例，这并不意外。

It's almost as if the market is maybe maybe pricing in a little bit more action into the early portion of next year, which given recent recent precedents, not exactly surprising.

我们在这档节目中多次提到，每个人都会认为一月份是波动率市场非常平静的时期。

We said many times on this show here how January everyone assumes it's a very quiet period in the vol markets.

但回头看看过去五年吧，听众们。

But go back, just look over the last five years listeners.

有多少个一月份像狮子一样强势开局？

How many Januaries came roaring in like a lion?

答案是不少，而且以多种出人意料的方式发生。

The answer was quite a few and in many different and surprising ways.

迈克尔，我也想问问你。

Michael, same question for you.

显然，波动率期限结构是你工作中的重要部分。

Obviously, the the vol term structure is a big portion of what you do.

这在一定程度上决定了你如何在外围设置UVXY头寸。

It's kind of dictating when and how you're setting up out there in UVXY.

本周您在VIX期货中注意到什么了，先生？

What is catching your eye out there in the VIX futures this week, sir?

所以，是的，如果你看一下当前的期限结构，它确实很陡峭，这几乎和2016年下半年以及2017年大部分时间的情况一样，那时做空波动率的交易简直赚翻了。

So, yeah, if if you look at that current term structure there, it is steep, and that is that is almost what it was like for the last half of 2016 and almost all of 2017 where, you know, it was just a short vol trade was just printing money like crazy.

我怀疑这种状况不会持续太久。

I I doubt it will hold for very long.

你对这锅汤的信心。

Your your faith in the stew.

我真希望这种情况能再持续十二个月。

I would love to see I would love to see this go on for twelve more months.

那会很棒。

That would be great.

但是

But

这会让我们的许多15行看跌期权买家非常高兴，我有这种感觉。

That would make a lot of our d's 15 put buyers very happy, I have a feeling.

确实会这样。

It it would.

但另一点是，交易者应该意识到，当现货与VX30之间存在如此大的缓冲时，VIX的飙升会被吸收。

But the the other thing, and this this is traders should should be aware of when there's that much of a buffer between spot and VX 30, a VIX spike will get absorbed.

所以VIX可能涨到20，你会想，嘿，这上涨了。

So VIX could run to 20, and you're thinking, hey, that's up.

我不该犯引用百分比的错误，但嘿，这上涨了50%。

Not not to not to do the faux pas of quoting a percentage, but, hey, that's up 50%.

波动率ETP不会跟随这一走势，因为如此大的VIX涨幅会被当前已有的三到四个点的缓冲完全吸收。

The the vol ETPs will not follow that because so much of that, VIX spike will get absorbed by that current, you know, three or four point buffer that they already have built in.

这是个很好的观点。

That's a great point.

我们在这档节目中多次谈到，仅靠VIX期权来捕捉和实现上涨收益就非常困难，更不用说像你提到的那些各种ETP了。

We talked so many times here on the show that it's so challenging to capture and monetize upside in the VIX options alone, let alone, as you mentioned, in the various ETPs.

你说得对。

You're right.

所有这些都会被当前的期限结构吸收掉。

That's all it's all gonna get sucked up the in the current term structure.

你会想，等等。

And you're like, wait a minute.

我明明持有了正确的仓位，可还是没赚到钱。

I had I had the right position on, and I still I still didn't make money.

你知道的。

You know?

在这里的波动率市场中，要将上涨收益变现非常困难，这种情况至少可能会持续到2026年初。

It's it's a challenging thing to monetize the upside here in in the vol market and that that will probably continue at least into early twenty twenty six.

听好了，我们来看看现在发生了什么。

Listen, let's see what's going on right now.

这是我们在这档节目中一段时间以来首次深入讨论VIX期权，但我喜欢这样在我们2025年最终的波动率观点中增添一些变化。

This is the latest we've gotten to VIX options in the show in a while, but I like it mixing things up here on our on our final vol views of 2025.

这很好，因为本周VIX期权市场并没有掀起什么波澜。

That's good because the the VIX options market not really lighten the world on fire this week.

可想而知。

Go figure.

由于假期缩短的一周，交易量并没有明显上升。

Truncated shortened holiday week not really putting up the numbers.

因此，我们的日均成交量——我早就说过，要留意这一点。

As a result, our ADV, which I've been saying for a while, you know, keep an eye on that.

到了12月这么晚的时候，VIX期权的日均成交量仍能维持在百万合约以上，这有点不寻常。

It's kind of unusual to have VIX options still averaging north of a million contracts a day this late into December.

正如我们上周在节目中所说，波动率市场终于在上周迎来了12月，而本周VIX期权也终于步入正轨，日均成交量开始回归正常水平。

Well, like we said on the show last week, December finally arrived in the vol market last week and it's finally arriving in VIX options this week as well as that ADV coming back to some semblance of normalcy.

目前它停留在778。

Seven seventy eight is where it's hanging out right now.

比上周此时减少了约20.5万份合约。

Down about 205,000 contracts from this time last week.

所以，是的，十二月来了，但这里来得有点晚。

So, yeah, December coming, but coming kind of late out here.

而到了这个时候，778的成交量仍然相当可观。

And still seven seven seventy eight for this time of year is actually still an impressive amount of volume.

剧透一下，今天达不到那个数字。

A spoiler alert, not getting there today.

今天交易量只有23万张合约。

Only 230,000 contracts on the tape.

所以，除非后半段交易出现火爆行情，否则今天这个日均成交量不太可能再增加。

So unless something really hot lights up the tape in the second half of the session, probably not gonna not gonna increase that ADV today.

来看看前十名，目前VIX期权中哪些合约的交易量最大？

Going out to the top 10, what is hanging out for size in VIX options right now?

我们目前的结构和一周前几乎完全一样。

Well, we're still pretty much hanging out at the exact same structure we were a week ago.

我们仍然保持看涨与看跌8比2的比例。

We're still eight to two calls over put.

所以你可能会想，尽管顶部有这么多买气涌出，可能会激励一些更多的看跌期权操作，但还不足以改变我们本周前十大榜单的格局，各位听众。

So you might be thinking, no, all this juice coming off the top might incentivize some more put action, but not enough to change up our top 10 this week listeners.

本周排名第10的是我们老朋友——1月20日行权价。

A number 10 on the board this week gets us back to our old pal, the Jan twenty.

所以现在很多人看到榜单可能会想：你知道吗？

So a lot of people right now might be looking at the board and say, you know what?

我感觉这个价位可能在新年伊始有点太便宜了。

I have a feeling this might be a little bit too cheap to kick off the new year.

因此他们想稍微试探性地买入一些，结果不出所料，我们那位老朋友——1月20日行权价，作为许多市场参与者新年伊始的心理关口，本周再次跻身前十。

So they wanna take a little bit of a nibble to the upside and lo and behold, our old pal, the Jan twenties, a very psychological level for a lot of people out there kicking off the number 10 spot this week.

它们的合约数量达到了14.5万张。

145,000 contracts on the docket for them.

第九名是1月22日行权价，合约量为14.7万张。

Number nine, a 147,000 of the Jan twenty two.

所以你可能想要一些上行空间，但价格再便宜一点。

So maybe you want some upside, but a little bit cheaper.

现在来看一月二十二日的合约。

Here come the Jan twenty twos.

然后是第八名，你真的想看涨。

Then number eight, you really wanna go upside.

一月七十七点零的合约有152,000份。

152,000 of the Jan seventy seven o's.

是的。

Yeah.

这更有趣了。

It's more of that fun.

轻松一点。

Lighten it up.

第七名，是我们前十大中的第一个看跌期权，是一月十六日的154,000份看跌期权。

Number seven, our first of two puts in our top 10, a 154,000 of the Jan sixteen puts.

所以至少有人在听这个节目。

So people have been listening to the show at least.

他们正在放弃十五档，但对十六档还不是很放弃。

They're bailing on the fifteens, but not so much on the sixteens yet.

目前仍有大约15.4万份未平仓。

Still about a 154,000 of those open.

这就引出了一个问题：要怎样才能让你把你的看跌期权变现？

So raises the question, what does it take to get you to monetize your puts?

显然，这周还不行。

Apparently not this week.

一月二十一日的156美元档。

Number six, a buck 56 of the Jan twenty ones.

第五名，回到有趣的部分。

Number five, right back to the fun.

十六万三千份的一月双档。

163,000 of the Jan doubles.

如果你对自己说：‘嘿，我喜欢一月双档，但它们还不够虚值，而我又不想直接跳到一月七十档。'

If you said to yourself, self, hey, I like those Jan doubles, but they're not quite far enough out of the money for me, but I also don't wanna go all the way to the Jan seventies.

那四号呢？

How about number four?

168,000份一月六十档期权。

168,000 of the Jan sixties.

在我们的前十名听众中，一月的上涨空间真是疯狂，持续了好几天。

There is there is wild Jan upside for days here in our top 10 listeners.

三号，我们列表中第一个二月的期权。

Number three, our first Feb offender on the list.

还是我们的老朋友，188,000份二月四十七档的半档期权。

It is our old pal, 188,000 of the Feb forty seven halves.

无论谁钟爱这个四十七档半的行权价，今年一整年都在这么做，而且明年还在继续。

Whoever loves this 47 half strike, they have done so all year this year, and they continue to do so into next year.

二号，228,000份二月三十五档期权，而本周的头号大热门是——

Number two, two hundred twenty eight thousand of the Feb thirty fives and the big dog number one with a bullet out there this week.

不是一月的十五档看跌期权。

Not the 15 puts in Jan.

显然，不是一月的16份看跌期权。

Obviously, not the 16 puts in Jan.

我们刚刚讨论过那些。

We just talked about those.

不是。

Nope.

17000份一月看跌期权的听众。

273,000 of the Jan seventeen puts listeners.

所以，考虑到所有因素，这些天来，这是一笔相当可观的看跌期权，夺得了Vixland的榜首位置。

So these days, a fairly meaty put all things considered taking the top spot in Vixland.

但说到Vixland，现在正是时候了，听众们。

But speaking of Vixland, it is now that time listeners.

这是你们期待已久，或许又有些畏惧的时刻。

It is the time you've looked forward to or perhaps dreaded.

这是Russell每周盘点的时间。

It is time for Russell's weekly rundown.

现在，拉塞尔的每周简报。

Now, Russell's weekly rundown.

现在，拉塞尔的每周

Now, Russell's weekly

简报。

rundown.

这首歌真好听。

The song's so nice.

我们有法律义务播放两遍。

We are legally obligated to play it twice.

罗兹先生，先生，在这个可以说是略显平静的VIX周里，是什么引起了您的注意，先生？

Mister Rhodes, sir, what caught your eye in a shall we say a little bit quieter VIX week, sir?

嗯，周一那天是，我知道我们时间不多了，所以我们马上就要到了。

Well, Monday was a and and I know we're short on time, so I'm I'm we're coming up against it.

所以我会说得快一点。

So I'll be somewhat quick.

时间很充裕。

Got plenty of time.

尽管说吧，先生。

Go to town, sir.

好的。

Okay.

嗯，周一我注意到，你知道，我一直抱怨说，浏览彭博社的页面时，每周的内容通常只有两到三页，但周一却有整整八页。

Well, did note on Monday, you know, I I've been complaining that going through the Bloomberg pages, there've only been two or three pages for each, you know, for for that that contained weeklies.

周一有八页之多。

There were, like, eight on Monday.

很多人做空交易，直到到期日才平仓。

A lot of people play in the short, trade into expiration.

周一我要重点分析的交易，不是那些已经到期的，而是那些尚未到期的。

On Monday, the trades that I'm going to highlight are, instead of going through those, I'm going talk about some that have not expired.

周一，当时VIX指数为14.42，这还挺有意思的。

So on Monday, this was kind of interesting with VIX at fourteen forty two.

有人这两笔交易都不是价差卖出者。

Somebody's this isn't both of these trades are opening non spread sellers.

有人卖出了5000张VIX1月7日22行权价的看涨期权，价格为0.28美元。

Somebody sold 5,000 of the VIX January 7, 22 calls for 28.

差不多同一时间，以不同数量的合约单位，我不确定这是否是愚蠢的空头操作，但我觉得可能不是同一个人交易的。

Around the same time in different types of lots, I don't know if this is a short stupid or what, but I don't think it was it may not be the same trader.

有人卖出了5000张VIX1月7日20行权价的看涨期权，价格在0.45到0.46美分之间，具体取决于合约单位。

Somebody sold 5,000 of the VIX January 7 20 calls for somewhere between 45 and 46¢, depending on the lots.

所有这些交易都发生在周一中午前后。

All of those were like midday on Monday.

第二次卖出时，VIX的价位是14.5。

VIX was at 14 and a half for that second sale.

所以我不确定。

So I don't know.

也许为什么他们不直接做20行权价的呢？

Maybe why don't why didn't they just do the 20?

没有什么比VIX上的短路交易更能体现年末波动率交易了。

Nothing screams end of year vol trading like a short stupid in VIX.

是的。

Yeah.

尤其是2025年。

And especially 2025.

好吧。

Alright.

周二，当VIX处于13.84美元时，这是我最不喜欢的交易。

So on Tuesday, with VIX at $13.84, probably my least favorite trade.

我实际上甚至都不希望他们成功。

I'm I'm and I'm actually even not rooting for them.

有人以4美分的价格买入了1,585份12月31日32行权价的看涨期权。

Somebody bought 1,585 of the December 31, 32 calls for 4¢.

这是开仓交易，我认为之前的未平仓合约实际上为零。

Opening trade, the I think the open interest was actually zero.

想象一下他们买入这些期权的时候。

Imagine that when they bought those.

周二稍晚些时候，当VIX处于13.66美元时，有人以1.23至1.24美元的价格卖出了2000份2015年12月24日的看跌期权。

Little later on Tuesday with VIX at $13.66, somebody sold 2,000 of the 12/24/2015 puts for a dollar 23 to a dollar 24.

如果他们买入了这些期权，盈亏平衡点是13.76美元。

Now, the breakeven if they had purchased these is $13.76.

所以这里存在我所说的10美分的负时间价值。

So there was a dime of what I refer to as negative time value there.

然而，上周VIX的结算价为13.98美元，因此他们比等到结算时操作要更划算。

However, VIX settlement this last week was $13.98, so they did do better than if they had waited through settlement.

是的，我们有时会看到这种交易，心里就想：为什么？

Yeah, we see those sometimes and we're like, why?

你知道的，你永远无法预知夜间会发生什么。

Well, you know, and you never know what's going to happen overnight.

因此周三，当DICK'S的VIX约为13.51美元时，有人以27美分的价格卖出了1500份2021年1月7日的看涨期权。

So on Wednesday with with DICK'S around $13.51, we got a seller of 1,500 the 01/07/2021 calls at 27¢.

所以，他们当时买入了207或201的期权。

So there, they came in for the 20 sevens fine or 20 ones finally.

而今天，我肯定希望这笔交易是在VIX为14.11时平仓的。

And then today, I'm sure hoping this trade was an exit with VIX at fourteen eleven.

这就像我曾经提到的，当时是当天唯一的周度交易。

This was like the first I at one point, it was the only weekly trade for the day.

有人以29美分卖出了100份2015年12月31日到期的看跌期权。

Somebody sold a 100 of the 12/31/2015 puts for 29¢.

来了。

Here we go.

他们终于把那些蠢东西变现了。

They're finally monetizing those stupid things.

是的。

Yeah.

嗯，我其实正好遇到了。

Well, I actually I came across yeah.

嗯，我提过这件事。

Well, I mentioned it.

那个周二的交易，显然是在兑现一笔交易。

That Tuesday trade, that was definitely monetizing a trade.

他们以大约23美分、24美分的价格卖出了。

When they sold them for about 23, about 24.

那要好一点。

That's a little better.

那就是那个

That was that

未平仓合约大约是12,000。

was the the open interest was, like, 12,000.

所以在我心里，这绝对不是一笔新开仓交易。

So there's no question in my mind that that was not an opening trade.

如果那是笔新开仓交易，我得跟他谈谈。

If that was an opening trade, I wanna talk to him.

不是一个好的开仓，也不聪明。

Not a good opening, not a smart one.

所以就是这样。

So there.

所以，是的。

So, yeah.

而且我一直在关注，你信不信，一月的看跌期权和二月的看跌期权。

And I've been looking at, believe it or not, the January puts and the February puts.

我知道这完全与周度期权相反。

I know that's completely opposite of weeklies.

那里有相当不错的未平仓合约，而且开仓交易都是空头。

There are there's decent open interest there, and the opening transactions were shorts.

哦。

Oh.

为什么我们要花一整年时间去琢磨人们到底在VIX的200行权价看跌期权上做什么呢？

Why in the we're gonna we're gonna spend all year trying to figure out what the hell people are doing with the 200 strike puts in VIX.

而且我们的流动方向更明显了，但方向是相反的。

And we are we have inspired more flow, and it's the other way.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，我觉得可能是因为有迈克尔在，所以我没想提出来。

I mean, you know, one thing that I thought it might be is and and because we've got Michael, I didn't wanna bring it up.

是的。

Yeah.

会不会是某个ETF，本应做空或做多期货，却在另一个市场做了一些操作来模拟它？

Could it be an ETF that's supposed to be short or long futures, and they're doing something in a different market to kinda replicate it?

迈克尔，我们实在想不通。

Michael We can't for the life of us, we can't figure out.

实际上，之前是做多200看跌期权，同时做空20看跌期权来对冲。

And, actually, before, it was a long 200 put and a short 20 put versus it.

但最近这次，我们完全搞不懂了，老兄。

But these last I we're we're we we got no clue, man.

真的很难搞清楚到底发生了什么。

It's really difficult to figure out what the heck.

而且资本利用率也非常糟糕。

And it's terrible capital usage as well.

是的。

Yeah.

我们已经对这些VIX一月200看跌期权的这种所谓操作观察了一段时间。

We've been we've been profiling for a while this this action, quote, unquote, on these VIX Jan two hundred puts.

无论如何分析，这都令人费解。

And either way you you slice it, it is mystifying.

我不确定您是否一直关注这场闹剧，先生。

I'm not sure if you've kept up with that drama, sir.

所以你是说他们卖出了这些期权？

So so you're saying they sold those?

嗯，是的，他们卖出了一月和二月的期权。

Well, yeah, they sold the Januaries and sold the February.

他们做空了大约140份一月合约。

They've got, they're short, like 140 of the Januaries.

二月合约做了多少？

And how many of those February's?

哦，一月的190行权价看跌期权也存在巨大的空头头寸。

Oh, and then there's also a huge short position in the 190 puts that is there in January.

我看到180、190和200行权价的交易量。

I see size in the 180s, 190s, and 200s.

是的。

Yeah.

最初只是200行权价，这就是事情的起因。抱歉打断你，但事情的起因是在七月，我们看到有人大量卖出Dees二月合约，或者大量买入Dees 200看跌期权，同时卖出了Dees 20看跌期权。

Originally, it was just the 200s and it was how this started, and I apologize for talking over you here, but the way that it started was back in July, we saw a large seller of the Dees two or a large buyer, buyer, buyer, buyer of the Dees 200 puts who also sold the Dees 20 puts.

他们的盈亏平衡点在到期时大约是27美元。

And their breakeven on it was like $27 at settlement.

他们一直持有到到期。

They held it all the way through settlement.

我们不知道他们是否平掉了二十档的仓位，但我们确定他们一直持有二百档直到到期。

We don't know if they got out of the twenties, but we're certain they held the 2 hundreds through expiration.

所以，至少如果他们保留了空头二十档，他们是在180时平仓的，但成本是171.90美元。

So at minimum, if they held onto the short twenties, they cashed out at 180, but the cost was $171.90.

为什么？

Why?

我也不指望你回答这个问题，毕竟我们为此花了六个月时间。

And I'm not expecting you to answer that because Well, I mean we spent six months on it.

如果你来了，我不是想让你为难。

You're if you came you're so I don't mean to put you on the spot.

他们可能在某种程度上与自己的账户对冲交易。

They could be trading against their books somehow.

我的意思是，我知道。

I mean I know.

当我看到这一点时，我看到的是将进入他们账户的现金。

When I at that, I'm I'm seeing the the cash that would be coming into their account.

我的意思是，很明显，这肯定是得覆盖掉的。

I mean, obviously, you know, that's gotta be that's gotta be covered.

但，是的。

But Yeah.

你手里握着现金，每份合约的现金量很大，20美元或180美元，还是18,000美元每份合约。

You're sitting on cash, that's a lot of cash per contract, $20 or 180 or what, 18,000 per contract.

这笔现金就躺在你的账户里。

That's cash sitting in your account.

你的IB账户还在为这笔钱支付4%的利息。

You've got IB paying you 4% on that.

另一边已经做好了对冲。

Got it covered on the other side.

这有点像SPX箱式价差，你只是想赚钱或者低成本借贷。

You know, it's kinda like a SPX box spread where you're just trying to to make money or borrow cheaply.

可能就是类似这样的操作。

It could be anything like that.

是的。

Yeah.

让我们看看这周这里什么在活跃，听众们，VIX期权这周并不是那种火爆的行情，所以我们快点过一遍。

Let's see what is lighting it up out here this week, listeners, and they not exactly rock them sock them robots week for VIX options, so we'll kinda burn through these.

今天，交易量还不到二十五万份合约，只有大约二十三万多份合约。

Today, not even a quarter of a million contracts on the tape, only about 230 odd thousand contracts on the tape.

VIX领域里目前最热门的期权，差不多有13,000到14,000份一月十七日到期的合约。

The hot option in Vixland such as it is, 13 nearly 14,000 of the Jan seventeens.

如果你想知道一月十七日到期的期权价格是多少，大约是一块二毛五。

If you're wondering what's a Jan seventeen go for, about a buck and a quarter.

所以，如果你打算抄底一月的看涨期权，要记住这一点。

So bear that in mind if you're thinking to scoop some Jan upside.

另外，我之前在其他节目中也提到过，一月周期其实很短。

Also, something I've been mentioning other shows that Jan cycle is kind of short.

所以，如果你以为买入一月期权就能获得很长的期限，也许你该重新考虑一下。

So if you think you're getting a whole bunch of duration by in Jan, maybe think again.

就看看这个。

Just just take a look at that one.

然后第二个，我们有大约1万份1月70档合约，我们老朋友1月70档。

And then number two, we got about 10,000 of the Jan seventies, our old pal, the Jan seventies.

如果你想知道这些家伙卖多少钱，高达8美分。

If you're wondering what those bad boys are going for a whopping 8¢.

就这样了。

So there you go.

买点诱人的上涨机会吧。

Get yourself some juicy upside.

我们继续看，显然昨天是休市的。

Let's keep going out to obviously yesterday we were closed.

我们继续看周三。

Let's keep going out to Wednesday.

周三的交易时段比较短，所以那里的成交量也不大。

A bit of a stub session on Wednesday, so not much volume going out then as well.

全天总共才23.5万份合约在维克斯市场成交。

Only 235,000 contracts total all day long, changing hands in Vicks land.

热门期权，比如14年1月的看跌期权，接近1.4万份。

The hot options such as it was 13, nearly 14,000 of the Jan fourteen puts.

所以，你知道，我们一直嘲笑15行权价的看跌期权。

So, you know, we've been mocking the 15 puts forever.

为什么不试试14行权价的看跌期权呢？

Why not try your hand at the 14 puts?

如果你想知道这些期权卖多少钱，大概是一毛钱。

If you're wondering what are those going up for, about about a dime.

看起来大概是一毛钱。

Looks like about a dime.

所以，如果你有一毛钱再也不想见到，那么1月14行权价的看跌期权可能就是你的不二之选。

So if you got a dime you never want to see again, maybe the Jan fourteen puts are your Huckleberry.

第二，1.36万份1月16行权价的看跌期权。

Number two, 13,600 of the Jan sixteen puts.

这张纸的走势基本是一一对应的，所以你可能有一个看跌价差，或者稍微做些移仓。

That paper lines up pretty much one to one, so you might have a a put spread or maybe a bit of a roll.

当然，如果你把仓位移仓到14看跌期权，你只花了那一笔钱的1毛钱，但即便如此，这1毛钱你本可以花在别的地方。

Though if you're if you of course, if you're rolling to the 14 puts, you're only spending a dime of that money, but still, it's a dime you could spend on other things.

看起来两边都有未平仓合约，有可能是在平仓。

Looks like there's OI on both, it could potentially be closing.

第三，13000份的一月五十看跌期权。

And number 3, 13000 of the Jan fifties.

第四，正好一万份的一月六十看跌期权。

Number four, ten thousand exactly of the Jan sixties.

最后，在这场疯狂的尾盘交易中，几乎正好有10000份三月平价期权。

And then rounding out a wild stub session, 10,000 almost exactly of the March pars.

如果你想知道这些期权的成交价，大约是16美分。

If you're wondering those changing hands for about 16¢.

周二，交易量稍多一些，周二当天的热门期权成交了40万份合约，比如一月二十五看跌期权就成交了27000份。

Tuesday, a little bit more paper, 400,000 contracts on the tape of the hot option on Tuesday, such as it was 27,000 of the Jan twenty fives.

这些期权的平均价格在周二约为42美分。

Average price for those about 42¢ on Tuesday.

而周一则是本周的最大亮点，周一的交易量达到了64.6万份合约。

And then Monday was the big dog of the week, such as it was 646,000 contracts on the tape on Monday.

周一的热门期权再次是17行权价的看跌期权，这可能是2026年的新宠。

The hot option on Monday, once again, it's like the 17 puts might be the new might be the new sexy item for 2026.

当天有5.2万份1月17行权价的看跌期权以接近1.40美元的价格成交。

52,000 of the Jan '17 puts going up for about almost a buck 40 on that day.

看起来该行权价的未平仓合约也可能正在平仓。

Looks like there's OI on that strikes that could potentially have been closing as well.

所以情况就是这样。

So that's the case.

你撤掉了一些，这很好。

You took some off, which is good.

留得青山在，不怕没柴烧。

Live to fight another day.

随着我们继续走出Vixland，我们正逐渐面临这个问题。

As we keep on rolling out of Vixland, we are kind of coming up against this.

让我们来看看本周其他波动率ETP的情况。

Let's run through some of the rest of the vol ETP ecosystem for this week.

我们已经聊了很多关于UVXY的内容。

We already talked a lot of UVXY.

让我们来谈谈它的兄弟产品UVX和SVX，好吗？

Let's get to the land of the siblings, UVX and SVX, shall we?

SVX相比上周此时上涨了大约一点。

SVX up about a point from where it was this time last week.

似乎很难真正突破24这个水平，今天仅成交了2501份合约。

Seems to have a hard time really breaching that 24 level to the upside, putting up a paltry 2,501 contracts today.

因此，再次谈到这些产品的流动性问题，Espyx，我不知道需要什么才能真正从期权角度推动市场。

So once again, talking about the liquidity issues with these products, Espyx, I don't know what it's going to take to really move the needle from an options perspective.

日均成交量再次骤降至每天4800份合约，比上周此时减少了约700份。

The ADV falling off a cliff again down to 4,800 contracts a day, it's down about 700 a day from this time last week.

这种流动性是SVIX承受不起的。

That is liquidity that SVIX can ill afford to lose.

但Cela V，让我们继续聊聊迈克尔最讨厌的那个产品。

But Cela V, let's keep rolling out to the product Michael just hates.

他每天都会对它破口大骂。

He spits venom at it every day.

UVX下跌了5.90，跌幅超过半点，大约六分之一个点。

It's UVX, a five ninety down a little over half a point, about six tenths of a point.

UVX这里似乎也在酝酿一次反向拆分。

UVX looking right for a little reverse split action out here as well.

一旦发生这种情况，听众们请系好安全带。

And when that happens, listeners strap in.

这是一段疯狂的旅程。

It's a wild ride.

今天成交量达到29,000份合约。

A 29,000 contracts on the tape today.

日均成交量为40万7千手，比上周同期减少了约5000手。

The ADV is 40 7,000 down about 5,000 from this time last week.

因此，这是每年少数几次在反向拆分后，UVXY相对于UVX失去流动性优势的时刻。

So this is one of the few times of year post reverse split where UVXY kind of loses its liquidity edge over UVX.

现在，两者的日均成交量都接近3万手。

Now they're both averaging close to 30,000 contracts a day.

所以，如果你想找借口交易UVX，因为它的杠杆更好，而唯一阻碍你的因素是流动性的话。

So I suppose if you wanted that excuse to trade UVX because it has the better leverage and the only thing holding you back was liquidity.

那么，这是一年中，或者说每一年半到两年一次，你可以这么说的时机。

Well, this is the one time a year or really one time every year and a half to two years where you could say that.

我们不妨也把VXX加进来。

Let's throw VXX into the mix as well.

为什么不呢？

Why not?

节目开始时，VXX大约在27附近，现在仍维持在这一水平附近，下跌了约1.15点。

VXX was at about 27 even coming into the start of the show, still hanging out right around there, down about a little over a point, about 1.15 points.

今天成交了高达19,000手合约，这算是成交量偏低了。

Putting up a whopping 19,000 contracts today, that is kind of light volume.

显然，听众朋友们，日均成交量为35,000手合约，比上周同期下降了10,000手。

Obviously, listeners, the ADV is 35,000 contracts a day, down 10,000 contracts from this time last week.

十二月到了，对我们所有人来说是这样，看来这一周所有波动率ETP也都迎来了十二月。

So December comes for us all, and apparently it came for all the vol ETPs this week.

迈克尔，我知道你很喜欢UVXY。

Michael, I know you love your UVXY.

今年其他波动率ETP产品中，有什么引起你注意的吗？

Anything catching your eye in the rest of the vol ETP ecosystem for this year?

是的，就像你说的，UVX该进行反向拆分了。

Well, yeah, like you're saying, UVX is due for a reverse split.

不过，我记得上一次反向拆分时，价格是三位数。

Although, I believe the last one was was a three handle when it when it actually did the reverse split.

所以，他们可能还得等很久才会进行这次拆分。

So it could be quite a while before they get around to to splitting that one.

而且，我更愿意整天交易UVX，因为它是两倍杠杆，滑点更大，但流动性不够，我只能被迫交易UVXY。

And, again, I would I would rather trade UVX all day because it's got more beta slippage being two x than UVXY, but the liquidity is just not there for for my trading, so I'm I'm stuck with UVXY.

那么分拆之后呢？

What about post split?

当市场剧烈波动时，你会转而交易UVX吗？

Do you dive into UVX then when things get really rocking?

说实话，根据我的观察，这并不会改变我的流动性状况。

It it truthfully, from what I've seen, it doesn't change the liquidity for me.

归根结底，关键是我能不能成交这笔交易。

It it all comes down to if I can get the trade on.

我遇到一个有趣的问题。

There there is one interesting challenge that I have.

有些券商因为K-1税务问题，会限制某些股票的交易。

So some brokers restrict trading in certain tickers because of k one issues.

比如，盈透证券完全不允许我在IRA账户中交易UVXY，但允许我全天交易UVX。

So for instance, Interactive Brokers will not allow me to trade UVXY in any way, shape, or form in an IRA, but they'll let me do UVX all day long.

所以对于我的IRA账户，我只交易UVX。

So for my IRA accounts, I'm trading UVX exclusively.

对于我的保证金账户，我交易UVXY。

For my margin accounts, I'm trading UVXY.

这纯粹是因为券商说：嘿，发行人会发出这些K-1表格，而如果你是IRA账户，无论盈亏你都不用缴税，所以我们不再允许你交易它。

And it's simply because the broker says, hey, the the issuer is gonna send out these k ones and if you're an IRA, you're not liable for taxes either up or down, so we're not gonna let you trade it anymore.

我觉得他们迟早会放开对UVX的限制，但目前他们允许我交易。

I think they'll get around to UVX eventually, but right now, they let me do it.

你可以交易两倍杠杆的产品，但1.5倍杠杆，我们就不允许了，先生。

You can sling the two x levered, but one and a half levered, we we draw the line of that, sir.

哦，有了。

Oh, there.

真是有趣的内容，罗兹先生。

So interesting stuff, mister Rhodes.

在我们进入水晶球环节之前，波动率ETP领域有什么吸引你注意的东西吗？

Before we head on into the crystal ball, anything catching your eye in the vol ETP universe?

先生，您又在做周末的UBIX交易吗？

And are you slinging your weekend ubix trade again, sir?

我在做周末的

I'm slinging my weekend

还是迈克尔把你拉到了周末UVXY交易的黑暗面？

Or has Michael lured you to the dark side of the weekend UVXY trade perhaps?

没有。

No.

目前我还是坚持做UVX交易。

I'm sticking with the UVX trade for right now.

那么，在我们继续之前，有什么吸引您的东西吗，先生？

So Anything catching your eye out there, sir, before we roll on?

没有。

Nah.

除了我觉得，鉴于目前所有东西都如此陡峭，做空球让我感觉很好。

Other than really, I I feel good about short ball just with with how steep everything is.

好吧。

Alright.

我们有信心赢得水晶球吗？

Do we feel good enough to win the crystal ball?

我想我们会知道的，听众们。

I guess we'll find out, listeners.

这是我们2025年的最后一个水晶球预测。

Our final crystal ball of 2025.

是时候展望未来，揭示波动之神为我们准备了什么。

It's time to peer into the future and reveal what the volatility gods hold in store.

是时候窥视水晶球了。

It's time to look into the crystal ball.

好了，各位。

Alright, everybody.

欢迎来到水晶球环节，这是我们再次试图与波动之神较劲，看看本周他们为我们准备了什么的环节。

Welcome to the crystal ball, the portion of the show where we once again attempt to wrestle with the ball gods and see what they have in store for us this week.

本周，他们给我们准备了一个13的点数，剧透一下，我和维克斯医生上周都没猜中。

This week, they have a 13 handle in store for us, which spoiler alert, neither myself or doctor Vicks had on the show last week.

我当时猜的是1515。

I was at a fifteen fifteen.

拉塞尔信心满满，猜了15点55。

Russell was feeling his oats at a 15 double, a fifteen fifty five.

我们轻松突破了15的点数，之后再没回头，现在我们甚至已经突破了14的点数。

And we blew through that 15 handle, never looked back, blew through a 14 handle as we're hanging out right now.

节目结束时，VIX现金价格为13.77。

Right at the end of the show, thirteen seventy seven in VIX cash.

所以剧透一下，今年最后一个水晶球预测没有赢家，这让我想起最近有人提过。

So spoiler alerts, no winners for our final crystal ball for the year, which does remind me, someone pointed out recently.

我们得赶紧启动明年底的VIX水晶球预测比赛了，这总是很有趣。

We have to get going on our VIX crystal ball for the end of next year contest, which is always a fun time.

每年年底，都会有很多来自波动率市场的人参与预测VIX年末的走势。

We get a lot of people to weigh in from the vol markets on where they think VIX will go out at the end of the year.

我们还得尽快结清今年的竞赛奖金。

We also have to pay off this year's contest pretty soon.

所以我们接下来还有很多计算工作要做。

So we have a lot of calculation work ahead of us out here.

但迈克尔，作为我们的嘉宾，而且你上周不像拉塞尔和我那样输掉，你获得了第一个发言的‘殊荣’。

But Michael, as our guest and because you didn't get a chance to lose last week like Russell and I did, you get the dubious honor of going first.

您觉得新年第一个星期五VIX会是多少呢，先生？

What do you feel in for VIX on the first Friday of the New Year, sir?

1月2日吗？

For January 2?

是的，先生。

Yes, sir.

给我14.17。

Give me a give me a 1417.

14.17。

1417.

所以有点上涨，但没什么疯狂的，也没什么剧烈的波动。

So a little pop, but nothing crazy, nothing explosive out there.

我写了1717。

I wrote 1717.

大概就是这样了。

That's probably there we go.

1417。

1417.

就是这样了。

There we go.

所以有点上行，但可能不多。

So a little bit of upside, but perhaps not much.

从技术上讲，我更接近，拉塞尔。

I was technically closer, Russell.

所以我想我接下来该上了，尽管我其实根本没怎么接近。

So I guess I will go next even though, I wasn't that close at all.

我不讨厌迈克尔这周在那里的情况。

I don't I don't hate where Michael's hanging out out there this week.

我喜欢再多谈一点瓦尔果汁对上行空间的影响。

I like to let's speak a little bit more of Val Juice into the upside.

我们来关注一下1445吧。

Let's go let's go to a fourteen forty five.

下周这个时候怎么样？

How about that for this time next?

好的，罗兹先生，这给你和格雷琴留了很大的空间可以深入探讨。

Alright, mister Rhodes, that leaves a lot of room for you and Gretchen to dive right in.

你对下周这个时候有什么看法？

What are you feeling for this time next week?

我不知道。

I don't know.

先生，你静音了。

You've been muted, sir.

发生什么事了？

What happened?

我很难过，因为格雷琴说加1417。

I'm all upset because Gretchen said +1 417.

哦，她真的这么说吗？

Oh, did she really?

迈克尔，我输入了一个数字，它就输出了一个数字。

Michael, I I put a number in and it spits out a number.

哦。

Oh.

我们平局了吗？

Do we have a rare tie?

你打算把它们雕刻出来吗？

Are you gonna try to carve them?

不。

No.

你要选+1 418？

You're go +1 418?

我打算，你知道的，我打算做你依赖量化系统时绝对不该做的事——直接推翻它。

I'm gonna I'm gonna, you know, I'm gonna do exactly what you shouldn't do when you're relying on a quantitative system and override it.

哦。

Oh.

我要选+1 333。

And I'm gonna go with I'm go with +1 333.

哇。

Wow.

好吧。

Alright.

嗯。

Yeah.

我觉得下周不会有什么大动静，人们根本不会做太多事。

I think I'm I I think not gonna be a whole lot going on and not people just not doing an awful lot next week.

拆穿格蕾琴的预测。

Cutting the legs out of Gretchen's prediction.

哇。

Wow.

好吧。

Alright.

十三点三三的听众们。

Thirteen thirty three listeners.

哦。

Oh.

哦。

Oh.

我们得到了13。

We got a 13.

女王在我们的聊天里也刚说了十三点三。

The queen just went thirteen thirty in our chat too.

所以你看。

So there you go.

你和她。

You and her.

当然，她确实如此。

Of course, she did.

你和她想法一致。

You and her are on the same page.

她通常挺吓人的。

She's usually pretty scary.

她

She

很好。

is good.

她在瓦尔预测中把我们都碾压了，是的。

She she smokes us all in the Val prediction So yeah.

所以你对这个预测应该感到满意。

So you you should feel good about that prediction.

不幸的是，由于音乐听众的原因，我们的最后一期节目到这里结束了。

Unfortunately, that music listeners means we've come to the end of our final.

这太疯狂了。

That's wild.

我本来以为这是我们的倒数第二期，但其实不是。

I was thinking this was our second to last, but actually no.

这是2025年的最后一期，这意味着我们当然得开始计算今年预测游戏的数据了。

It is our last one of 2025, which means of course, we have to start crunching numbers for this year's prediction game.

迈克尔，敬请关注。

And Michael, stay tuned.

留意你的Twitter私信，或者一般关注这个Twitter账号。

Keep an eye on your Twitter DMs or this Twitter in general.

我们很快也会寻找你对VIX的年终Val预测。

We'll we'll be looking for your end of year Val prediction for VIX pretty soon as well.

这其实是个有趣的游戏。

So it's it's a fun game.

每个人总是参与进来，然后又生气地说我们只是在看季节性规律。

Everyone always chimes in, then they get mad saying we're just looking at seasonality.

他们希望我们计算全年的平均值。

They want us to do an average throughout the year.

我们已经争论过很多次了，但我们不会这么做。

We've had many debates, but we're not doing that.

我们只看年底的最终结果。

We're just doing straight end of the year.

所以请留意这一点。

So look for that.

我不确定你今年是否等了，也许你等了。

I'm not sure if you waited on this year, maybe you did.

如果是这样，也许你会赢得一份丰厚的奖品，咱们走着瞧。

In which case, maybe you'll win a fabulous pricer, we shall see.