#154 - 菲拉斯·莫达德：谁真正掌控着美国战争机器？

如果你

If you

如果你说，通过轰炸加沙所有民用设施来实现种族清洗加沙是件坏事，那你就是哈马斯的同情者。

if you say that trying to ethnically cleanse Gaza by bombing every civilian structure in Gaza is actually a bad thing, then you're a Hamas apologist.

是的。

Yep.

如果你说，一个稳定的叙利亚比让一群现在即将入侵黎巴嫩的圣战分子掌权要好——顺便说一句，这确实是我们应该讨论的——那么你说阿萨德统治叙利亚比一群圣战分子更好，就是阿萨德的同情者。

If you say that having a stable Syria is better than running a bunch of jihadis who are now going to invade Lebanon, by the way, which is If something that we should talk you say that having Assad run Syria instead of a bunch of jihadis is a better outcome, then you're an Assad apologist.

如果你说推翻萨达姆政权会释放伊朗的力量，那你就是支持复兴党以及萨达姆那种法西斯社会主义思想。

If you say that destabilizing Saddam's regime is going to unleash the Iranians, then you support Ba'athism and the the sort of fascist socialist ideas of Saddam.

如果你说放任利比亚内战自行发展，那你就是卡扎菲的粉丝。

If you say letting the Libyan civil war be and let it play out, then you're a fan of Gaddafi.

但每一次，争论都聚焦在你这个人和你的品格上。

But every single time, the argument is focused on your person and on your integrity.

而不是聚焦在政策上

It isn't focused on the policy

还有后果。

And the consequences.

还有后果。

And the consequences.

如果你无法预见一场战争可能引发的第二和第三层后果——比如卷入土耳其人、阿塞拜疆人、巴基斯坦人、阿拉伯人、俄罗斯人和中国人，而他们正坐在全球能源命脉之上——那你就不配谈论政治，也没资格质疑我的品格。

And if you can't think of the second and third order consequences of a war that can suck in the Turks and the Azeris and the Pakistanis and the Arabs and the Russians and the Chinese sitting on top of the world's energy lifeline, then you have no business speaking about politics or questioning my integrity.

闭嘴。

Shut up.

非常感谢。

Thank you very much.

我不想听你说。

I don't want to hear from you.

但事实就是如此。

But this is what it is.

这件事的第二和第三层后果简直疯狂。

The second and third order consequences of this are insane.

再说一次，伊朗人在攻击能源设施方面并没有全面出击，他们还有另一个选择，那就是轰炸海湾地区的海水淡化厂和发电厂，他们完全能做到，而且已经两次用相对较小的袭击发出过信号，表明他们有能力炸毁整个地区，让整个海湾变得无法居住。

And again, the Iranians haven't gone full tilt when it comes to attacking energy, And they still have another option, which is to bomb The Gulf's desalination plants and power plants, which they can do, and they've done it twice already with relatively small hits, intended to signal that we can blow this whole thing up and make the entirety of The Gulf uninhabitable.

但接着你想一下，如果他们造成了足够的破坏，而你是一个小海湾酋长国的统治者，会怎么样？

But then you think about what if they cause enough damage and you're the ruler of a small Gulf principality.

那么，所有人都可能反过来对付他们。

Well, everyone could turn on them.

这不仅仅是所有人都能反过来对付他们的问题。

It's not just that everybody can turn on them.

他们已经决定，这是他们愿意承担的风险。

They've decided that that's a risk they're willing to take.

说得通。

Fair enough.

但还有经济层面，那就是海湾的资金正在支撑着各种股票、房地产，以及各种愚蠢的东西——恕我直言，比如足球俱乐部。

But there's the economic dimension, which is that Gulf money is propping up all kinds of equities and all kinds of real estate and all kinds of stupid stuff like, no offense, but football clubs.

是的。

Yeah.

不，你说得对。

No, you're right.

是的。

Yeah.

如果他们不得不在能源导致高通胀的时期撤回这些资本并将其汇回西方，而你又不得不调整利率，但实际上却因为债务规模及其对利息支出的影响而无法提高利率，那么最终就会出现一个真正的经济爆炸性局面——如果伊朗人真的全力攻击所有能源设施，就会引发连锁反应，而我们目前还处于战争的第一周。

If they have to draw that capital down and repatriate it to the West at a time when you have very high inflation due to energy, and you're going to have to adjust your interest rates, but you can't in fact raise interest rates because of the size of the debt and what that does to your interest bill, you end up with a genuinely economic explosive situation where there's a chain reaction that kicks off on the back of this if the Iranians just go full tilt against all of the energy, which we're still in the first week of the war.

我们得到的关于这场战争的信息有多准确？

How accurate is the information we're getting coming out from the war?

因为显然，我对战争的有限记忆来自巴尔干半岛和伊拉克发生的事。

Because I obviously my my limited memory of wars is what happened in the Balkans, what happened in Iraq.

但实际上，你获取的信息主要来自BBC新闻、天空新闻等主流电视媒体。

But really, the information you got was from your main primary TV sources, the BBC News, Sky News, or whatever.

是的，它们并不总是准确，而且确实存在对这些频道的合理批评。

Yeah, they're not always accurate and, yeah, there's there's there's the right kind of criticism that you can label at those channels.

但现在情况更加复杂，因为我们显然有数不尽的宣传机器人。是的。

But now it's even more complicated because we obviously have endless propaganda bots Yep.

在社交媒体平台上。

On social media channels.

我们现在有了AI换脸技术。

We now have AI swap.

我看过很多视频，它们声称发生在该地区的事件，但这些并不总是显而易见的。

The number of videos I've seen, which seem to be claiming incidents in the region, which are clearly well, not always clearly.

实际上，有时根本看不出来，但后来发现这些是AI生成的视频，人们不得不删除推文并道歉。

Actually, sometimes not clearly, but it turns out they're AI created videos and people having to then delete the tweets and apologize.

这简直一团糟。

It's a big mess.

是的。

Yeah.

我们有没有任何线索，到底真正发生了什么？

Do we have any idea what what what is really going on?

我们对某些事情还是有一些了解的。

We have a sense of some things.

我们感觉德黑兰的防空系统已经崩溃了。

We have a sense that the air defense over Tehran has collapsed.

我们感觉这并不是伊朗全部防空系统的全面崩溃。

We have a sense that this isn't a full collapse of all Iranian air defense.

我们感觉导弹发射的频率已经放缓，可能是因为一些导弹发射器被摧毁了，但也可能是因为伊朗最初想迅速发动一次大规模打击，随后希望保持长期持续打击的能力，以提高战争的成本。

We have a sense that the rate of missile fire has slowed down, probably because some of these missile launchers have been destroyed, but probably because the Iranians wanted to deliver a very quick big hit initially and then wanted to maintain the ability to keep on striking for a long time to make the war more costly.

我们基本上认为海湾国家正在过度使用拦截弹。

We have basically a sense that the Gulf States are overusing their interceptors.

如果你回顾叙利亚在1973年和1982年对以色列战争中的表现，我认为他们几乎都是尽可能快地倾泻所有武器。

If you look back at how the Syrians behaved, I think, in in the seventy three and eighty two wars against Israel, they pretty much just fired everything as quickly as they could.

但这并没有奏效，而且代价极其高昂。

And it didn't work, and it was very expensive.

但现在你看到，由于许多地区军队前往西方接受训练时，往往被轻易放行而没有真正通过考核，导致训练不足。

But now you see that there is a lack of training because a lot of the regional armies that go get trained in the West are kind of given passes without passing.

我们刚刚看到一架科威特飞机击落了三架美国战机，这表明这些部队的训练存在严重问题，因为飞行员本应是军队中最优秀的人才，毕竟这项工作技术含量极高、难度极大。

And we just saw a Kuwaiti aircraft shoot down three American jets, which, I mean, it shows you that you have a problem with how these guys are trained because the pilots are supposed to be the best that your military has to offer given how technical and difficult this is.

而在战争头几天，仍有一个人击落了三架美国战机。

And still some guy in the first couple of days of the war ends up shooting down three American jets.

再加上CENTCOM表示他们需要招聘大量情报人员，这说明什么？

So plus you have things like CENTCOM saying that they need to hire a lot more intelligence workers, which shows that, okay, now?

你们说，你们已经进行了如此大规模的军事建设，现在却还要招聘情报人员？

What do you mean you did all of this military buildup and now you need to hire people to work intelligence?

这意味着你们根本没有为这场战争做好充分准备。

It means that you haven't properly prepared for this.

此外，你还要考虑每架战机需要多少小时的维护，这本身就需要时间。

And then you have to factor in things like how many hours of maintenance that does each of these jets need, and that takes takes some time.

显然，西方军队在快速周转、维护和保持战机战备状态方面最出色，但这既耗时又昂贵，使用得越多，所需维护就越多。

Obviously, Western armies are the best at turning around these jets and maintaining them and keeping them up to scratch, but it's time consuming and expensive, and the more you use them, the more you need to do it.

而且，似乎他们已经快耗尽了拦截弹，这构成了一个问题。

You have the fact that it seems that they're running out of interceptors already, which is a problem.

谁快耗尽拦截弹了？

Who's running out of interceptors?

阿拉伯国家和以色列。

The Arab states and Israel.

我的意思是，我们知道在2025年6月的十二天战争中，25%的末段高空区域防御拦截弹被耗尽了。

I mean, we know that in the twelve day war in June 2025, 25% of the terminal high altitude air defense interceptors were just consumed.

整个库存的25%。

25% of the entire stockpile.

这些拦截弹的年产量据我所知在十到二十枚之间。

And these are built at a rate of, I've heard, between ten and twenty every year.

所以要重新补足库存需要很长时间。

So it takes a long time to stockpile them again.

特朗普刚刚召见了一批国防承包商的首席执行官，说：听着。

And Trump just summoned a bunch of the CEOs of defense contractors and said, listen.

你们必须解决生产问题，因为产能根本不够。

You need to do something about production because there isn't enough production.

这对幸运马丁公司和雷神公司的股东来说真是好消息。

This is great for the shareholders of Lucky Martin and Raytheon.

但这些股东是谁呢？

But who are these shareholders?

其中很多是贝莱德、先锋集团等等，它们都有自己的爱泼斯坦网络。

A bunch of them are going to be BlackRock and Vanguard and so on and so forth, which all have their own Epstein networks.

所以这个系统从根本上就是被操纵的。

So the system is fundamentally rigged.

为了确保这一计划通过，并且不对以色列造成太大损害，拉里·埃里森做了什么？

Then to make sure that this passes and that there isn't enough damage to the Israelis, what did Larry Ellison do?

他收购了CBS和TikTok。

He bought CBS and he bought TikTok.

竞争对手是谁？

Who's the rival?

那就是福克斯新闻。

Well, it's Fox News.

谁在管理它？

Who runs that?

一个是鲁珀特·默多克。

One Rupert Murdoch.

所以你最终陷入这样一种局面：你发现整个系统都是被操纵的。

So you end up in this situation where you see that the whole system is rigged.

如果你说金融、媒体和政策制定中存在这种影响，那就会被指责为反犹太主义。

And if you say that there is this influence over finance and media and policymaking, well, that's antisemitic.

但事实就是如此。

But this is what the facts say.

我不是说我不想要，我不恨任何人，我也不想恨任何人。

This isn't I don't I I don't want I don't hate anyone, and I don't wanna hate anyone.

哦，伊朗正在向以色列发射导弹，人们真的在死。

Oh, is Iran landing missiles in Israel and are people Yeah.

无辜的人在死亡吗？

And innocent people dying?

是的。

Yes.

他们是。

They are.

当然。

Absolutely.

当然。

Absolutely.

虽然不像伊朗人死亡的速度那么快，但确实如此。

Not at the rate that the Iranians are dying, but absolutely they are.

我们对这一地区目前的死亡人数有任何了解吗？

And we have we got any idea of the scale of deaths in the region at

现在？

the moment?

伊朗方面报告称，截至昨天，我认为已有上千人丧生。

So the Iranians are reporting, as of yesterday, I think a thousand plus people killed.

好的。

Okay.

在以色列，死亡人数不太明确，但有一些人在避难时丧生，可能只有几十人。

And in Israel, it's less clear what the number is, but there's a bunch of people who are killed while sheltering, probably less couple of dozen.

是的。

Yeah.

这显然如果你有良知、有同情心，就不希望任何一方的平民丧生。

Which is obviously you don't want civilians dying on either side if you have a heart, if you have a conscience.

但以色列方面，曾有一支中国团队试图拍摄特拉维夫某处爆炸现场。

But the Israelis, there was a Chinese team that tried to film one of the impact sites in Tel Aviv.

五分钟内，安全部队就赶到并驱逐了他们。

And within five minutes, security forces arrived and cleared them out.

正是通过中央司令部，我们才得知以色列海法炼油厂遭到了袭击，而其他媒体都没有报道此事。

And it was only through CENTCOM that we learned that the Haifa refinery in Israel had been hit, which wasn't mentioned in any other media.

因此你会觉得，事实上确实有导弹击中了以色列，但以色列方面严格控制着舆论，确保这些信息不被公众知晓，甚至在以色列国内也是如此；以色列媒体对本国军方的审查制度提出了严厉批评。

And so you get the impression that, in fact, there are hits landing in Israel, but they are really controlling the narrative and making sure that this isn't revealed to the public, even within Israel, to the extent that Israeli media is being very critical of Israeli military censorship.

在以色列，所有发布的内容——我指的是所有内容——都必须经过军方审查机构的批准。

Everything that is published in Israel, and I mean everything, is under the authority of the military censor.

因此，他们对本国的媒体生态系统拥有完全控制权。

And so they have full control over the media ecosystem in their country.

在加沙也是如此。

And in Gaza.

在加沙，显而易见。

And in Gaza, obviously.

如果你是一名主流西方记者，派团队去以色列，就必须服从军方审查。

And in if you're a mainstream Western journalist and you send the team to Israel, you have to obey the military censor.

偶尔有人会找到规避方法，但媒体机构总体上支持以色列。

Now every once in a while people find workarounds, but the media institutions are generally supportive of Israel.

主流媒体普遍对以色列持支持态度。

The mainstream media is generally quite supportive of Israel.

如果他们不支持，就会引发反犹主义丑闻，有时这确实是真实的反犹主义。

And if they aren't, there is an antisemitism scandal, and in some cases it's real antisemitism.

有时这确实是真实的反犹主义。

And in some cases it is real antisemitism.

但在很多情况下，只是在说：伙计们，你知道，这有点过头了。

But in a lot of cases, it's just saying, guys, you know, this is a bit extreme.

你不应该试图驱逐加沙的平民。

You shouldn't try to depopulate Gaza.

你不应该试图驱逐南黎巴嫩的平民。

You shouldn't try to depopulate South Lebanon.

告诉我黎巴嫩发生了什么。

Tell me what's happening in Lebanon.

很明显，他们的目标是真主党。

Obviously, they're after Hezbollah.

所以真主党愚蠢地决定加入

So Hezbollah very stupidly decided to join the

战争。

war.

嗯。

Mhmm.

从他们的意识形态立场来看，这完全是自洽的。

From their ideological position, this is perfectly coherent.

问题是，我不认同他们的意识形态。

The problem is that I don't agree with their ideology.

我认为这完全是虚假且错误的。

I think it's just fake and wrong.

他们首先尝试针对以色列的米杜恩空军基地和海法附近的雷达站，目的是削弱部分雷达系统，以便伊朗能够更精准地命中目标。

And what they first did was try to target some of the radar stations in Israel in Midun Airbase and near Haifa with the idea being that they would disable some of the radars to enable the Iranians to score more hits.

这就是背后的逻辑。

That's the logic behind it.

因此，以色列下令黎巴嫩利塔尼河以南地区（约占黎巴嫩领土的10%）的所有人撤离。

And as a result, the Israelis ordered everybody south of the Litani River in Lebanon, which is around 10% of Lebanese territory, to clear out.

大约也是10%的人口。

And maybe 10% of the population.

赶紧走。

Just go.

你不被允许再待在这里了。

You're not allowed to be here anymore.

现在，这是以色列人一贯的政策。

Now, this is a consistent policy on the part of the Israelis.

在1993年的战争中，他们试图驱散数十个村庄。

In the nineteen ninety three war, they tried to depopulate tens of villages.

在1996年，他们试图驱散了大约78个村庄。

In 1996, they tried to depopulate, I believe it was 78 villages.

在2006年，他们做了完全相同的事情。

In 2006, they did the same exact thing.

现在他们又在重复这一做法。

And now they're doing it again.

在以色列和黎巴嫩达成停火协议后，以色列人并没有停止。

And after the Israelis and the Lebanese agreed to a ceasefire, the Israelis didn't stop.

首先，他们继续攻击真主党，因为他们声称真主党没有遵守停火协议，而停火协议要求真主党完全投降，这在某种程度上是事实。

First, they kept on attacking Hezbollah because they said Hezbollah wasn't adhering to the ceasefire, which entailed their full surrender, which is kind of true.

随后，他们走遍黎巴嫩南部，将那些在战斗中未能占领的村庄彻底夷平。

And they then went around Southern Lebanon flattening the villages that they had been unable to take in combat.

他们只是派来推土机和挖掘机，把房屋和整个村庄都压平，确保没有人能返回。

They just sent tractors and diggers and just turned houses flat, turned entire villages flat to make sure that nobody could return.

于是真主党说：你们没有遵守停火协议。

So Hezbollah said, you didn't adhere to the ceasefire.

那我们也不会遵守。

We won't either.

你们已经轰炸了我们一年。

You've been bombing us for a year.

现在我们要进行报复，并将部分行动归因于对伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊被杀的回应。

Now we're going to retaliate, and placed it in part as retaliation for the killing of the supreme leader of Iran, Khamenei.

甚至在战争爆发前，叙利亚武装力量——也就是目前统治叙利亚、却在白宫、联合国和世界经济论坛受到接待的那些极端分子——正在黎巴嫩边境集结兵力，很可能即将入侵黎巴嫩以压制真主党。

And now even before the war started, Syrian forces, that is the jihadi headchoppers that currently govern Syria that are being received in the White House and in the UN and the World Economic Forum, these guys, are amassing their forces along the border with Lebanon, and they are quite possibly going to invade Lebanon to try to subdue Hezbollah.

因为如果以色列派出地面部队，他们将承受过多的伤亡。

Because if the Israelis were to send their own forces on the ground, they would take too many casualties.

但正如库尔德人被用来对抗伊朗一样，库尔德人、贝洛吉人，或许还有阿塞拜疆人，这些在叙利亚的人都是可牺牲的。

But just as the Kurds are being used against Iran, the Kurds and the Beloj and perhaps the Azeris, these guys in Syria are expendable.

请注意，我并不介意看到圣战分子死去。

And mind you, I don't mind seeing jihadis dying.

我只是不希望这成为我国家内战的一部分。

I just don't want that to be part of a civil war in my country.

但在政策制定方面，这种犬儒主义已经到了疯狂的地步。

But there is a level of cynicism here when it comes to policymaking that is insane.

确实，一些疯狂的联盟会形成。

Well, there are insane alliances that get formed.

是的。

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

但这完全是毫无原则的，主要目标就是制造混乱。

But it is fully and completely unprincipled, and the main objective is to sow chaos.

因为如果库尔德人成功被用来对抗伊朗——这本身就是一个很大的假设——接下来他们就会被转而用来对抗土耳其。

Because if the Kurds are used successfully against Iran, which is a big if, they are then going to be turned and used against Turkey.

而欧洲的移民将响应土耳其的圣战号召，这还会被包装成对西方的保卫。

And the migrants in Europe are going to follow a Turkish call for jihad, and it will be presented as a defense of the West.

但事实上，这是对西方的毁灭，因为这些人根本就不该出现在西方。

But in reality, is the destruction of the West because these people should have never been in the West in the first place.

然后你不可能不注意到，议会代表团不断坚持要保持庇护通道的开放。

And then you can't not notice that the board of deputies keeps on insisting that asylum routes should be kept open.

而西方几乎每一个类似的组织都持同样的观点。

And pretty much every other parallel organization in the West says the same thing.

在澳大利亚、法国、德国，以及显然在美国，他们都坚持同样的立场。

In Australia, in France, in Germany, they insist on the same stuff in The United States, obviously.

如果你反对移民，你就会被贴上极右翼的标签，甚至还会从‘希望而非仇恨’组织获得奖项。

And if you're anti immigration, you are far right and you get to win awards from hope not hate.

是的。

Yeah.

很失望没上榜。

Was disappointed not to make the list.

是的。

Yeah.

我还不够有影响力。

I'm not relevant enough yet.

不过，莲花食者上榜了，所以我希望是我有所贡献。

Well, lotus eaters made it, so I'd like to think that I contributed.

是的。

Yeah.

但现实是，这个系统在结构上已经失效了。

But there is this reality that structurally, this system isn't working.

是的。

Yeah.

你的确可以说这一点。

You could you could say that.

我们了解街道、城镇和城市里的情况吗

Do we know do we know how what it's like on the streets, in the towns, the cities

在伊朗。

In Iran.

在伊朗？

In Iran?

因为我们已经知道货币已经崩溃了。

Because we already know that currency has been decimated.

这是最近一次起义的一部分。

That was part of the recent uprising.

但人们还得吃饭。

But people still gotta eat.

人们还得做生意。

People still gotta do business.

我们了解实际情况吗？

Do we know what's actually happening?

从表面上看，情况非常糟糕。

By the look of it, it's really bad.

好的。

Okay.

我们看到了反对政府的抗议活动。

We've seen protests against the government.

我们看到媒体称有摩萨德和中情局特工在实地活动。

We've seen media say that there were Mossad and CIA agents on the ground.

西方媒体这样报道并为此邀功。

Western media say that and taking credit for it.

我们看到了数万人死亡的报道。

We've seen reports of tens of thousands killed.

我认为这被严重夸大了。

I don't think I think that this is heavily exaggerated.

我不是怀疑这个政权会开枪打死数千人。

Not that I doubt that the regime would shoot thousands of people.

他们已经做过很多次了。

They've done it a bunch of times.

我只是对总数表示怀疑。

I just doubt the total figure.

就这样。

That's all.

我认为是几千人，很少。

I think it's the the low thousands.

有些报道说有三万、八万，甚至十万。

Some of the reporting is that it's 30,000 and then 80,000 and then a 100,000.

你是不是在想，各位，算了吧。

Are you kind of going, guys, come on.

别说了。

Stop.

是的。

Yeah.

我认为灰色地带已经显现出来了。

I think the gray zone came out.

再说一遍？

Say again?

我认为灰色地带与这些数字相矛盾。

I think the gray zone came out against those numbers.

是的。

Yeah.

因为这是那种争论之一。

Because it's it's one of those arguments.

就像是，你为什么为这些谋杀辩护？

It's like, why are why are you defending the murders?

他们在街头屠杀了四万人。

They've, slaughtered 40,000 people on the streets.

我支持你。

And I'm I'm with you.

我毫不怀疑。

I have no doubt.

我的意思是，我们已经看过他们街头枪杀民众的视频。

I mean, we've seen the footage of them shooting people on the street.

我们看过装满尸体的袋子。

We've seen the body bags.

是的。

Yeah.

但别跟我撒谎。

Do But don't lie to me about it.

就像萨达姆入侵科威特时，我们听说伊拉克人在医院的婴儿保育箱里杀害科威特婴儿的故事。

It's like, when Saddam invaded Kuwait, we had this story come out about how the Iraqis were killing Kuwaiti babies in incubators and hospitals.

结果发现完全是捏造的。

And it turned out to be completely fabricated.

但如果你说这是个愚蠢的政策，你就是在为那些杀害婴儿和婴儿保育箱的人辩护？

But then if you say this is a stupid policy, you're defending people who kill babies and incubators?

你怎敢这么说？

How dare you?

但是

But

你是想要求完全杜绝宣传和战争吗？

are you trying to demand no propaganda and warfare?

想要

Trying to

别要求我别侮辱我的智商。

demand don't insult my intelligence.

是的。

Yeah.

如果你要讨论政策，就请抛开情绪，理性冷静地分析，考虑你所作所为的第二阶和第三阶后果，而不是用那些愚蠢的道德口号。

And if you're going to talk about policy, talk about it without emotion analytically, calmly, and think of the second and third order consequences of what you're doing, not in terms of stupid moral moralistic slogans.

如果你也支持对加沙的毁灭性打击，就别告诉我你反对伊朗对示威者的枪击。

And don't tell me you oppose the shooting of protesters in Iran if you also support the flattening of Gaza.

至少要保持一致。

Like, be consistent.

给我看看你的原则。

Show me principle.

如果你能向我展示原则，能和我讨论政策，能和我分析后果，我会无限期地和你谈下去，我希望我们能达成一个真诚的共识。

If you show me principle and if you talk to me about policy and if you talk to me about consequences, I will talk to you endlessly, and I hope we can reach a good faith agreement.

是的。

Yeah.

祝你好运。

Good luck with that.

你是在要求人们不要有特殊利益。

You're asking for people not to have special interests.

对。

Yeah.

我只是要求他们像基督徒一样行事，彼得，就像我一直以来所要求的那样。

I'm just asking them to be Christian, Peter, as I've always asked

你。

you.

是的。

Yeah.

这很公平。

Which is fair.

好吧。

Okay.

所以你看。

So look.

鹰派在什么时候意识到，他们到底在什么时候才感到悔意？

At what point do the Warhawks realize what time what point do they buy as remorse?

他们什么时候才会意识到，我们又搞砸了？

What point do they realize, okay, we fucked up again?

因为当你谈到拦截弹耗尽、防空系统无法保护其上方空域时，这会彻底改变这场战争的态势。

Because when you talk about interceptors running out and air defenses not being able to defend the air above them, that changes the entire dynamic of this war.

这使伊朗人更加大胆，但仅限于一定程度。

It emboldens the Iranians to But only up to a point.

好的。

Okay.

因为无论防空拦截弹的产量如何，都会优先供应以色列，而美国本土不会直接遭受攻击。

Because whatever production there is of air defense interceptors is going to be prioritized for Israel, and The United States directly is not going to be hit.

在伊拉克、利比亚、波斯尼亚和车臣的问题上，那些鼓吹这些战争并从中获利的人，根本没有任何买家后悔。

And there was zero buyer's remorse when it came to Iraq and Libya and Bosnia and Chechnya, not for the people who advocated for these wars and made money.

公众才感到后悔。

There was buyer's remorse for the public.

公众，以及一些政客。

The public, some of the politicians.

当然，当然，当然。

Sure, sure, sure.

但政客们并不是决策者。

But the politicians are not the decision makers.

是的

Yeah.

这是一个关键点。

That's a key point here.

你可以把克林顿换成承诺克制的布什。

You can take Clinton and replace him with Bush promising you restraint.

然后他进军伊拉克和阿富汗。

He then goes into Iraq and Afghanistan.

对。

Yes.

你可以把布什换成承诺克制的奥巴马，他给了你利比亚和叙利亚。

You can then take Bush and replace him with Obama, and he promises you restraint, and he gives you Libya and Syria.

然后你可以把他换成特朗普，他会给你伊朗。

And then you can take him and replace him with Trump, and he will give you Iran.

但其实这根本无关紧要。

And it never really actually matters.

这实际上从来都不重要。

It never really makes a difference.

政治家们并不是决策者，也不是受益者。

The politicians are not the decision makers and they're not the beneficiaries.

你是说他们

Are you saying they're

不是，他们只是赚点小钱。

not They're making the peanuts.

是的。

Yes.

我的意思是，我不喜欢显得太阴谋论，因为中东所有人都是些愚蠢的阴谋论者。

I mean, I don't want to I don't like being conspiratorial because everybody in The Middle East is a retarded conspiracy theorist.

但这些阴谋全都成真了。

But they all come true.

但这些阴谋全都成真了。

But they all come true.

这些该死的精神病患者。

These fucking psychopaths.

他们全都应验了，全都应验了。

They all come they all come true.

事情发展到一定程度，就不可能看不到其中的模式了。

It it is it gets to a point where it is impossible not to see the pattern.

看看爱泼斯坦的文件吧。

Just look at the Epstein files.

嗯。

Mhmm.

你有索罗斯网络显然通过他们的非政府组织在乌克兰煽动动乱，他们在这其中扮演了重要角色。

You had the Soros network obviously instigating the unrest in Ukraine through their NGOs, and they played a huge part of it.

你有伊戈尔·科洛莫伊斯基，这位犹太亿万富翁被任命为乌克兰州长，并用他的数十亿资金资助了真正的新纳粹团体。

You had Igor Kolomovsky, a Jewish billionaire who was given a governorship in Ukraine and used his billions to fund literal neo Nazi groups.

后来发现泽连斯基与拉里·萨默斯和爱泼斯坦有联系，这根本就很奇怪。

Then it turns out that Zelensky is in touch with Larry Summers and Epstein, which is fundamentally weird.

结果发现，在2014年局势升级后，爱泼斯坦和罗斯柴尔德正在讨论如何从乌克兰战争中获利。

It turns out that after the 2014 escalation, Epstein and Rothschild are talking about how to profit from the Ukraine war.

接着，特朗普登场了。

Then Trump enters the scene.

杰瑞德·库什纳前往乌克兰进行谈判。

Jared Kushner goes to negotiate over Ukraine.

他带了谁一起去？

And who does he bring with him?

黑石集团的拉里·芬克。

Larry Fink of BlackRock.

我知道。

I know.

说这件事是错误的，并不是反犹太主义。

And it isn't antisemitic to say that this is wrong.

他们明明在我们面前炫耀。

They're rubbing it in our faces.

这是一场寡头统治，这个寡头集团的行为从根本上无视了中东公民，当然也无视了西方公民。

This is an oligarchy, and this oligarchy is behaving in a way that fundamentally disregards not just the citizens of the Middle East, but also obviously the citizens of the West.

我确实看到拉里·芬克讨论过如何重建乌克兰。

I did see Larry Fink discussing how to rebuild Ukraine.

我的意思是，好吧。

I mean, okay.

继续说吧，拉里。

Go on, Larry.

谢谢。

Thank you.

而且它将接收八百万移民。

And it's going to get 8,000,000 migrants.

谢谢。

Thanks.

占他们战前人口的百分之二十。

20% of their population, of their pre war population.

这对乌克兰人有什么好处？

How is that to the benefit of the Ukrainians?

你觉得这种情况会如何发展？

How do you think this plays out?

我认为要么伊朗人设法维持他们的政权，要么我们最终会得到一个失败的国家。

I think we either end up with a failed Either the Iranians hold their regime together somehow or we end up with a failed state.

但失败国家的问题在于，它们需要持续的干预。

But the problem with failed states is that they require constant intervention.

它们会给我们的

And they bring chaos to our own

边境带来混乱。

shores.

它们会给西方带来混乱，也会给它们所有邻国带来混乱，拥有一个失败的国家是一个糟糕的结果。

And they bring chaos to the West and they bring chaos to all of their neighborhoods and it is a bad outcome to have a failed state.

没有人会说：太好了，我们成了一个失败的国家。

Nobody says, Yay, we became a failed state.

我们赢了。

We won.

从来没人这么说过。

Nobody's ever said that.

这种观点认为，萨达姆及其精神病态儿子的暴政统治下的伊拉克，比战后的情况更稳定、更好。

It's the argument that Iraq was more stable and better under the sadistic regime of Saddam Hussein and his psychopathic sons than what we got after the war.

你用来取代萨达姆的，可能是一百万个不同的小萨达姆。

What you replace Saddam with is a million different little Saddams.

所以，如果伊朗变成一个失败国家，伊拉克每个什叶派民兵组织的领导者都可能成为野心勃勃的萨达姆。

So if Iran becomes a failed state, each of the leaders of the Shia militias in Iraq is an aspiring Saddam.

库尔德民兵的领导者是这样，据说库尔德地区是伊拉克最好的部分，但逊尼派的领导者也是如此。

So are the leaders of the Kurdish militias and supposedly Kurdistan is the good part of Iraq, but so are the leaders of the Sunnis.

他们中的每一个都能让萨达姆显得相形见绌。

And they can all make Saddam look good.

我的意思是，在入侵伊拉克之后，有人用钻头折磨其他伊拉克人。

I mean, after the invasion of Iraq, you had people who were torturing other Iraqis with drills.

你能想象用钻头钻人的骨头，然后再钻头钻头颅吗？

Can you imagine drilling people's bones and then drilling their skulls?

但当时没有一个最高级别的施虐者能至少约束他们，制定经济政策，明确说出自己想要的社会是什么样子——不管好坏，至少是个能运转的政府。

But instead of having one torturer in chief who could at least put a leash on them and actually have an economic policy and actually say, well, this is what I want for my society, good or bad, but functioning government.

你看到的是几十个这样的人四处横行，每个人都有自己的民兵组织。

You had dozens of these running around each one with his own militia.

如果伊朗再也无法约束这些什叶派民兵——顺便说一句，他们彼此之间都互相憎恨，因为彼此竞争的本性——而且库尔德人和逊尼派也无人制约，那就彻底乱了。

And so if the Iranians can no longer constrain these Shia militias, who all, by the way, hate each other because the nature of the competition between them, and nobody's constraining the Kurds and the Sunnis, it's chaos.

这种混乱会引来谁？

And who is this chaos going to invite in?

最近的国家就是土耳其。

The closest people are Turkey.

但土耳其的扩张会被用来编织一种叙事，说土耳其现在已经变成了伊朗。

But then the expansion of Turkey is going to be used to spin a narrative that Turkey has now become Iran.

让我们去打他们吧。

Let's go and fight them.

而这一叙事已经由以色列政府官员在传播。

And that narrative is already being spun by Israeli government officials.

这场战争似乎是在三条战线上同时进行。

This warfare this war seems to be four on three fronts.

我们目前看到的是明显的军事战争，但还有一场经济战和能源战。

There is the obvious kinetic war we're seeing now, but there is a economic war and an energy war.

是的。

Mhmm.

你认为战争中哪一部分最重要？

Which do you think is the most important part of the war?

你认为什么决定胜负？

What do you think decides it?

对西方影响最大的部分显然是能源战和经济战，因为如果伊朗决定全面攻击能源基础设施，将引发一系列连锁反应。

The part that affects the West most is obviously going to be the energy and the economic war because of the chain reaction that gets triggered if the Iranians decide to go all out against the energy infrastructure.

这种连锁反应几乎会摧毁我们所熟知的海合会，尤其是当他们还攻击海水淡化设施和电力系统时，这将导致整个中东陷入混乱，而印度、巴基斯坦、约旦、埃及和黎巴嫩等国家严重依赖该地区的汇款。

And that chain reaction sort of annihilates the GCC as we know it, especially if they also hit the desalination and power, and it creates chaos in the entire Middle East, you have countries like India and Pakistan and Jordan and Egypt and Lebanon that are massively dependent on remittances from that part of the world.

所以这不仅仅是能源通胀、工业成本通胀和农产品通胀。

So it's not just the energy inflation and the industrial costs inflation and the agricultural commodities inflation.

还有他们的汇款，如果伊朗全面攻击能源设施，这将引发一系列连锁反应，影响全球众多国家。

It's also their remittances that sort of and that cascades to a huge range of countries all over the world if the Iranians go all out against energy.

再说一遍，这还只是一个很大的假设。

Again, and that's a big if.

这显然会摧毁西方体系。

That is obviously going to break the Western system.

因为从政治上讲，我想不出任何一位西方领导人没有彻底丧失公信力，除了纳伊布·布克尔。

Because politically, I can't think of a Western leader who isn't fully discredited with the exception of Nayib Bukele.

其余所有人都从根本上丧失了公信力。

All of the rest are fundamentally discredited.

默茨、马克龙、桑切斯、斯塔默，还有现在的小特朗普。

Mertz, Macron, Sanchez, Starmer, and now Trump.

还有现在的小特朗普。

And now Trump.

你看到贝凯利发的那条推文了吗

Did you see the Bekailey tweet that came out

没有。

No.

是因为战争爆发了吗？

Because the war started?

没有。

No.

我没看到。

I didn't.

你可能得留意一下，康纳。

You might have to look out, Conor.

我敢肯定他刚发了一条关于博弈论的推文。

I'm pretty sure he just tweeted game theory.

这很有趣。

That's interesting.

是的

Yeah.

对

Yeah.

对

Yeah.

如果你从伊朗如何回应的角度来看，他们生存下来的唯一方式就是在西方制造混乱。

If you put it in terms of how the Iranian response is going to be, their only way of surviving this is to create chaos in the West.

我以为他想得比那更广一些。

I thought he I I assumed he was thinking wider than that.

好的。

Okay.

是的

Yeah.

就是这样。

There you go.

这是博弈论。

It's game theory.

对。

Right.

往下滚动。

Scroll down.

看看博弈论101里讲了什么。

See what see what comes in the game theory one zero one.

是的。

Yeah.

解释了。

Explained.

我的意思是，我不完全确定他这话是什么意思，但你觉得他想表达什么？

I mean, I'm not 100% sure what he means by this, but what do you think he means?

我觉得他是想告诉全世界，这个世界就是这样运行的。

I think it's I think he's just telling the world that this is the way the world works.

这就是地缘政治的运作方式。

This is how geopolitics works.

它不必非得这样运作。

It doesn't have to work this way.

我知道，但我们被一群该死的疯子统治着。

I know, but we're run by fucking psychopaths

是的。

and Yes.

这必须被指出，因为这是问题的核心。

That has to be said as the core part of the problem.

但你是个阴谋论者。

But you're a conspiracy theorist.

我的意思是，你看看霍华德·卢特尼克居然当上了商务部长。

I mean, you have Howard Lutnik sitting as secretary of commerce.

还有汤姆·巴雷克，担任土耳其和叙利亚特使。

Tom Barack, the envoy to Turkey and Syria.

他出现在档案里。

He's in the files.

我想知道巴勒克是否在档案里。

I wanna know Barack in the files.

我们还没看到的档案里有什么？

What's in the files we haven't seen?

现在的筹码在哪里？

Where's the leverage right now?

这场战争是不是靠 Epstein 档案中的筹码在打？

Like, is this war being fought on leverage from the Epstein files?

不是。

No.

我认为很大一部分原因可能是私人关系。

I I think a big part of it might be just the personal connections.

特朗普最终依赖了贾里德·库什纳。

Trump ends up relying on Jared Kushner.

贾里德·库什纳的家人与内塔尼亚胡是最好的朋友，因此在特朗普看来，内塔尼亚胡就成了家族的延伸成员，事情就是这样运作的。

Jared Kushner's family is best friends with Netanyahu, and so Netanyahu becomes part of the extended family as far as Trump is concerned, and that's how it's being run.

但贾里德·库什纳的忠诚并不属于特朗普家族。

But Jared Kushner's loyalty isn't to the Trump family.

这才是问题所在。

That's the issue.

那么，你认为伊朗为什么还没有去攻击能源基础设施呢？

So why do you think Iran hasn't gone out and attacked the energy infrastructure yet?

再次，是

Again, is

他们的设施也会被摧毁得同样严重。

it just like theirs can be destroyed just as badly.

明白了。

Okay.

所以，你是觉得他们想让以色列和美国回到谈判桌上来吗？

So, like, it's So do you think they're trying to get the Israelis and Americans back to the negotiating table?

我认为他们希望这场战争结束。

I think they want this war to end.

是的。

Yeah.

因为这种战略，比如在你的领导层被斩首、你的核心资产被摧毁的情况下还无限期持续下去，这算不上什么战略。

Because the strat like, lasting indefinitely as your leadership gets decapitated and your capital assets get destroyed isn't much of a strategy.

它

It

是

is

伊朗人这一步棋走得很蠢，除非他们其他所有的棋步都更糟，因为那些都涉及投降。

a stupid play by the Iranians except that all of their other plays are worse because they involve capitulation.

投降被视为根本性的宗教背叛。

Capitulation is seen as a fundamental religious betrayal.

所以他们的战略优势在于时间。

So their strategic advantage is time.

他们的战略优势在于时间，以及比任何人想象的都要疯狂。

Their strategic advantage is time and being crazier than anyone ever thought they could be.

这就像，如果你考虑疯狂理论的问题——特朗普试图用这个理论对付中国、俄罗斯和伊朗——那么在某个时刻，对付疯狂理论最好的对策就是比你还疯狂。

Which is like, if you the problem with the madman theory, which Trump tries to play against China and against Russia and against Iran, is that at some point, the best counter strategy to the madman theory is to be even madder still.

而在某个时刻，人们会识破你的虚张声势，反而变得比你更疯狂。

And at some point people call your bluffs and actually end up being crazier than you.

如果你对什叶派神学有所了解，你就能理解他们为什么这么做。

And if you know anything about Shia theology, you kind of see why they did it.

问题是，伊朗人在这么多事情上一直保持克制。

The issue is that the Iranians acted with restraint for so long over so many things.

即使所有人都指责他们太过激进，而他们确实很激进。

Even as everybody accuses them of being too radical, which they are radical.

但你也不能忽视他们曾经表现出克制的那些时刻。

But you also have to see the times where they acted with restraint.

他们并没有挑起与伊拉克的战争。

They didn't start the war with Iraq.

在黎巴嫩，他们支持真主党并不仅仅是因为以色列入侵并拒绝撤军。

In Lebanon, they didn't back Hezbollah just because Israel had invaded and refused to withdraw.

他们一路打到了贝鲁特。

They'd invaded all the way to Beirut.

他们赶走了巴勒斯坦人，但却没有离开这个国家。

They got the Palestinians out, but they didn't leave the country.

于是什叶派心想，好吧。

And so the Shia were like, okay.

如果你不走，我们就逼你走。

If you're not leaving, we're gonna make you leave.

这并不是在抽象层面上发生的。

So it didn't happen in sort of abstraction.

而是在特定背景下发生的。

It happened in a context.

巴勒斯坦人的情况也是如此。

And the same with the Palestinians.

他们在1948年对他们进行了屠杀，并迫使他们逃亡。

They massacred them in 1948 and they forced them to flee.

然后巴勒斯坦人开始使用恐怖主义手段，这是不对的。

And then the Palestinians started using terrorism, which is a bad thing.

但他们没有军队，而他们确实拥有的那些军队也完全不堪一击。

But they didn't have an army, and the armies that they did have were absolutely crap.

因此，你可以理解这一点而不必表示同意，同时指出这是错误的，同时追溯其根源在于这些人曾遭受屠杀和驱逐的事实。

So you could understand it without agreeing with it, while saying this is bad, while tracing the origin of it to the fact that these people were massacred and expelled.

而且人们是记仇的。

And people are vindictive.

在基督教背景下，他们本不该如此，但他们并非基督徒，期望非基督徒表现得像基督徒一样是愚蠢的。

And in a Christian context, they shouldn't be, but they're not Christian, and it's stupid to expect them to behave as Christians if they aren't.

美国人的行为符合基督教教义吗？

Are the Americans behaving as Christians?

不符合。

No.

不是。

No.

他们的行为是

They're behaving

但共和党是一个基督教政党。

But the Republican party is a Christian party.

我的意思是，看看他们，在开始做这些事之前会祈祷。

I mean, look They say a prayer before they start being

其他那些事情的一部分。

a of this other stuff.

想想更广泛的背景。

Think about the the wider context.

你不会看到大规模驱逐。

You're not getting mass deportations.

特朗普退出了明尼阿波利斯。

Trump backed out of Minneapolis.

长期以来，共和党拒绝将堕胎作为一个议题，但从基督教的角度来看，这本应是一个重要议题，因为他们坚持认为这会损害联盟和基本选民。

For a long time, the Republicans refused to make abortion an issue, which should be an issue from a Christian perspective, because they insisted that it would be bad for the coalition and bad for the base.

管理债务方面，他们就像醉汉一样继续挥霍。

Managing the debt, they just keep spending like drunken sailors.

这无关紧要。

It doesn't matter.

当有人提出停止开支时，他们会采取各种手段攻击这些人，就像他们对罗恩·保罗、马西以及其他一些人所做的那样。

When somebody says stop spending, they do all kinds of things and attack them in all kinds of ways as they do with Ron Paul and with Massey and with some others.

在移民问题上，实际上并没有真正停止移民。

When it comes to immigration, there was no real shutdown of immigration.

也许他们对某些人关闭了边境。

There was maybe some They closed for some.

有所改善。

Improvement.

他们关闭了非法移民。

They closed illegal immigration.

他们并没有关闭合法移民。

They didn't shut down legal immigration.

人口结构的变化主要是由合法移民造成的，除了拜登执政期间。

And the demographic change is mainly happening because of legal immigration except under the Biden years.

所以在所有这些其他问题上，他们都退让了。

So on all of these other issues, they gave up.

正确的基督教立场应该是什么，关于移民？

What is the What is the correct Christian position on immigration?

要认识到国家就是国家，它们有权利作为国家存在，因为这是上帝所安排的。

It's to recognize that nations are nations and that they have the right to be nations because this is how God ordained it to be.

有一个著名的故事，讲的是西班牙和两西西里的国王，两西西里指的是意大利的靴形地区和西西里岛。

So there's a famous story about the king of Spain and two Sicilies, the two Sicilies being kind of the Boot area of Italy and the island of Sicily.

一位神父实际上告诉他，你应该让所有这些人都说西班牙语，把他们整合成一个王国。

And one priest actually told him that what you should do is impose the Spanish language on all of these people and integrate them into one kingdom.

是国王纠正了这位神父，说：不。

And it was the king who corrects the priest and says, no.

不。

No.

不。

No.

这些是独立的国家。

These are separate nations.

我是它们所有的国王，但我分别作为每个国家的国王，这就是为什么奥匈帝国并不觉得用14种语言发布命令有什么问题。

I am the king of all of them, but I am the king of all of them separately, which is why the Austro Hungarian Empire didn't have a problem with the fact that they had to issue orders with 14 languages.

显然，这带来了后勤问题和各种后果，但他们认为允许国内民族多样性是恰当且正确的。

Obviously, they had a logistics problem and all kinds of consequences for that, But they thought it fit and right to allow the diversity of nations within their population.

因此，如果你承认这些是多元的国家，它们有权作为国家存在，你就可以说，你们英国人有权根据自己的需求和利益限制移民。

And so if you recognize that these are diverse nations and they have a right to exist as nations, you can say that you, the British, have the right to restrict immigration in accordance with your own needs and interests.

这并不意味着任何入境者，你都可以剥夺他们的财产，奴役或剥削他们。

It doesn't mean that anybody who comes in, you can just take away their assets and enslave them or exploit them.

你必须以基督徒的态度对待陌生人，但这是针对作为个体的陌生人，通常是暂时居留者；你没有基督教义务说：‘好吧，我实际上要把塔哈姆莱特变成孟加拉国。’

You have to be Christian towards the stranger, but towards the stranger as an individual, towards the sojourner usually, as in somebody who is there temporarily, you have no Christian duty to say, Well, actually, I'm going to turn Tower Hamlets into Bangladesh.

比如，基督教神学上没有任何依据支持让那些支持英国民族党、也就是孟加拉国民族党的人进入塔汉莱特议会。

Like, there is no Christian theological defense of having people run for the BNP, the Bangladeshi national party, also be on the council of tower hamlets.

基督教里没有任何内容说这是个好主意。

Nothing in Christianity says that's a good idea.

作为基督徒，当你看到白宫即将有特朗普出来对媒体发表演讲，但在那之前，有人为他做了祷告。

As a Christian, when you see the White House are about to have a Trump's about to come out and give one of his speeches to the press, but before that happens, we have somebody given a prayer.

当你看到政治家们谈论为士兵祈祷时，你有什么感受？

When you see politicians talking about praying for the soldiers, how do you feel?

这些假基督徒？

These fake Christians?

我不能说别人是假基督徒，因为我自己也是一个糟糕的基督徒，也可能被称为假基督徒。

I can't say that other people are fake Christians because I myself am a bad Christian and could be called a fake Christian.

好的。

Okay.

公平。

Fair.

我可以这么说，他们这样做是好事，祈祷作为生活的一部分，包括政治生活，是有益的。

I can say that it's good that they do it, and it is good to have prayer be a part of life in general, including political life.

因为我相信教会与国家在权威上的分离，即教会的权威与国家的权威应当分开。

Because I believe in the separation of church and state in terms of the authority of the church versus the authority of the state.

你不希望出现一个彻底的神权政体，也不希望国家来决定宗教该说什么。

You don't want a full on theocracy, and you don't want the state deciding what religion says.

这两种情况都是糟糕的结果。

These are both bad outcomes.

但我确实相信基督教对政治具有道德影响力。

But I do believe in the moral influence of Christianity over politics.

我坚定地相信这一点，我认为政治应当受到基督教价值观的指引。

I do believe in that firmly, and I think that politics should be informed by Christian values.

基督最常使用的最严厉的指责就是‘伪君子’，他多次用这个词来批评法利赛人。

The worst insult that Christ consistently used was hypocrites, and this was repeatedly said about the Pharisees.

而在某种程度上，这同样适用于我们所有人。

And it is true of all of us on some level.

我们都是伪君子，因为我们都有所不足。

We are all hypocrites because we all fall short.

但如果你一边祈祷，一边支持对加沙和南黎巴嫩进行种族清洗，让伊朗陷入内战，并推行一种将混乱本身视为终极目标的政策，那我必须说，你这是虚伪的。

But if you're going to pray and endorse the ethnic cleansing of Gaza and of South Lebanon and the plunging of Iran into civil war and a policy of endless chaos that sees chaos as an end in itself, I would submit to you that you're being hypocritical.

你到了天堂门口，恐怕得聊上很久。

You're probably gonna have a longer conversation at the pearly gates.

你有很多事情要谈。

Got a lot you got a lot to discuss.

你得为自己的选择做出解释。

You're going to have to explain your choices.

是圣彼得，对吧？

It's Saint Peter, isn't it?

是的。

As yes.

我们所有人都是如此。

As we all are.

我的人。

My guy.

正如我们所有人一样，我们都必须对自己的行为负责。

As we all are, we're all going to have to be held to account.

是的。

Yeah.

但是你，我的意思是，我不会称他们为假基督徒，但我认为基督教信仰在他们的政策选择中是否真正发挥作用，并不明显。

But youI mean, I wouldn't call them fake Christians, but I would say that it is not obvious to me that Christian faith is truly playing a part in their policy choices.

因为如果你是基督徒，你就不能把混乱当作政策来辩护。

We because you can't defend chaos as policy of your if you're a Christian.

如果你是基督徒，你就尊重秩序，即使是不公正的秩序。

If you're a Christian, you respect order, even unjust order.

我最喜欢的一句格言是：不公比没有政府或软弱政府的后果要轻。

One of my favorite proverbs is injustice is of lesser consequence than no government or weak government.

用阿拉伯语说起来更好听。

In Arabic, it sounds nicer.

但这是根本性的真相。

But this is fundamentally true.

如果有一个不良分子在维持秩序，那么对于所有相关方，尤其是穷人、弱者、受压迫者和需要帮助的人而言，稳定总比混乱要好。

If you have a bad actor keeping order, it is a better outcome for everybody involved, especially the poor, the weak, the downtrodden and the needy to have stability than to have chaos.

我们在告解室里应该看到明显的迹象。

We should see significant cues at the confession box.

有些人需要一些时间来忏悔他们的罪过。

Some people are going to need a bit of time to repent for their sins.

我们都如此，但这确实令人震惊。

We all do, but this is quite jarring.

是的。

Yeah.

这正变得越来越令人震惊。

This is becoming quite jarring.

所以我总是很享受和你讨论基督教。

So so I I do always enjoy discussing Christianity with you.

所以当你从更宏观的层面观察世界正在发生的事情时，西方国家不断增长的天文数字债务正在使人们陷入贫困，还有关于爱泼斯坦文件的一切，而我认为我们至今仍远远没有掌握足够多的信息

So as you observe the world at a more macro level about what is happening, the astronomical debt that western nations have that keeps increasing, that's impoverishing people, the everything around the Epstein files, which I still don't think we have nearly enough

我们对它的了解还不够全面。

of We don't have the full understanding of it.

没错。

No.

地区冲突正在爆发，显然我们有俄罗斯和乌克兰。

Regional conflicts breaking out in we've obviously have Russia, Ukraine.

现在还有中东，以及中国与台湾的潜在威胁，顺便说一句，我们也应该讨论一下这个问题。

We have now The Middle East, the threat of China and Taiwan, which, by the way, we should also discuss.

作为基督徒，你如何评估这个时代？

How do you, as a Christian, assess this moment in time?

你必须自己努力成为一个更好的基督徒。

You You have to take it on yourself to be a better Christian.

除非社会不再基督教化，否则不可能让如此邪恶的人来统治你。

It's you can't have people that evil governing you except because the society isn't Christian.

而且这不基督教，因为你不够。

And it isn't Christian because you aren't.

我没有展现出足够好的榜样。

You I am not showing a good enough example.

我对家人和朋友不够有基督的样式。

I am not being Christian enough towards my family and friends.

是的。

Yeah.

在一个真正基督教的社会里，我们经常在《诗篇》中看到，诗篇作者说：‘主啊，我要忍受这种苦难到几时呢？’

In a truly in a society that is Christian, I mean, we see it in the Psalms all the time where you have the psalmist saying how long, God, will I have to suffer this?

在《耶利米书》中也能看到。

You see it in Jeremiah.

在《以赛亚书》中也能看到。

You see it in Isaiah.

在旧约全书中随处可见，当社会的腐败最终导致灾难性的政治后果时。

You see it all over the Old Testament when essentially the corruption of society ends up leading to cataclysmic political outcomes.