凯茜·伍德谈比特币 - WBD570

我的学术背景涵盖经济学与金融学，因此我对自己的观点充满信心。要知道，这是首个全球性、私有化（即不受政府监管）、数字化、基于规则的货币体系。当我这样解释时，我总会请人们仔细品味每一个词——每个词都至关重要，这是我们时代最具深远意义的创新之一。

My background is both economics and finance, so I feel very confident in what I'm saying. You know, this is the first global private, meaning no government oversight, digital, rules based monetary system. When I'm explaining it like that, I I ask everyone to listen to each of those words. Each one of them is very important, and this is one of the most profound innovations of our time.

大家好，我现在身处暴雨倾盆的贝德福德。刚刚一场疯狂的雷暴把我惊醒，闪电雷鸣交加，而我现在却要启程开始七小时的爱丁堡之旅，这天气实在糟糕。等不及要抵达那里了，英国比特币大会即将举行，他们邀请了一批顶尖演讲嘉宾。

Hello there from a very rainy Bedford. I've just been woken up by a crazy thunderstorm. Loads of lightning, loads of thunder, and I've got to set off on a seven hour drive now to Edinburgh, isn't the best weather for it. I can't wait to get up there. The UK Bitcoin conference is happening, and they've put together an amazing set of speakers.

是的，期待在那里见到各位。如果你想获取一些真正的比特币...

So, yes, looking forward to seeing any of you up there. And if you want get some real bit

周边商品，我的车已经塞满了货。我会到场销售我的周边，过来打个招呼吧，希望有机会...

of merch, I've loaded up my car. I will be there. I will be selling my merch. Come and say hello, and hopefully, you can get

和你们喝杯啤酒。开了七小时车后我肯定需要这个。欢迎收听《比特币做了什么》播客，本期由Gemini赞助——这是我唯一使用的比特币购买平台。我是主持人彼得·麦科马克，今天带来一期筹备已久的精彩访谈。

a beer with some of you. I'll probably need that after a seven hour drive. Anyway, welcome to the What Bitcoin Did podcast, which is brought to you by Gemini, the only place I'm using for buying Bitcoin. I'm your host, Peter McCormack, and today I've got an amazing interview. It's something I've been working on for a very long time.

我们邀请到方舟投资的凯茜·伍德。这期节目我期待已久。方舟投资最近经历了艰难的一年，部分投资项目表现不佳，

I've got Kathy Wood from ArcInvest on the show. Now this is a show I've wanted to make for so long. Now ArcInvest have had a difficult what do say? A difficult year. Some of the things they've been investing in haven't done so well.

他们的ETF价值有所下跌。但这家基金专注投资于最具变革性的创新技术，自然会有投机周期。凯茜是我长期想对话的对象，我想了解她投资颠覆性技术的逻辑——尽管我们比特币玩家习惯剧烈波动，但这些投资同样如此。我还想探讨美联储忽视的通缩信号、她如何被"橙皮效应"影响，以及早期投资比特币的经历。

You know, they've seen a drop in the value of their ETF, but they are a fund that invests in some of the most innovative world changing technologies. So naturally, there's gonna be speculation cycles with this. But Kathy is somebody I've wanted to talk to for a long time. I wanna understand why she invests in such disruptive technologies because even though people like us are used to crazy volatility with Bitcoin, you can experience that with some of these investments. But I also wanted to talk to her about a bunch of other stuff, deflationary signals that the Fed is missing, how she actually got orange peeled, and also investing in Bitcoin early.

现在我们只争取到了一小时的相聚时间。说实话，我本可以和凯西聊上五个小时。她真是个魅力十足的人物。我真的很想多听听她的投资理念以及ARC未来打算投资哪些领域，不过我会想办法邀请她将来再次做客节目。我知道你们会喜欢这期节目的，如果你们有任何问题想反馈给我，请随时联系。

Now we only managed to get an hour together. I could have honestly chatted to Kathy for probably five hours. She's such a fascinating character. I really wanted to hear more about her investment thesis and what ARC is looking to invest in in the future, but I will work on getting her back on the show at some point in the future. Now I know you're gonna enjoy this, but if you've got any questions about this show, if you wanna get back to me, please do.

我的邮箱地址是hello@whatbitcoindid.com。另外，这周贝德福德队输球后我心情特别好。我们重回胜利轨道，在莱奇沃思客场2:0获胜，目前仍稳居联赛榜首。

My email address is hello@whatbitcoindid.com. And also, I'm in a very good mood following Bedford's defeat this week. We got back to our winning ways. We won two nil away at Letchworth. We're still top of the league.

我们领先12分，升级形势一片大好，不过现在赛季还早，我不能高兴得太早。我的教练罗伯听到我这么说估计要发飙。总之，苏格兰的朋友们，期待与你们相见。

We're 12 points clear. We're looking good for promotion, but it's very early on. So I shouldn't get too excited. My manager, Rob, will probably go crazy at me for saying this. Anyway, if you're in Scotland, looking forward to seeing you.

我现在准备出发了。除此之外，祝大家收听愉快，我们下周见。今天我们的嘉宾是莉兹。

I'm gonna be setting off now. Apart from that, enjoy the show, and I'll see you all next week. We're we're joined by Liz today.

哦，是莉兹啊。

Oh, Liz.

我们节目总会有嘉宾登场，之前是彼得·希尔。

We always have somebody up on there. So it's it's been Peter Shear.

好的。

Okay.

是啊。所以

Yeah. So

那边发生的事有点疯狂。

kinda crazy what's going on there.

目前在英国，唯一能形容它的词就是一团糟。

It is the only way to call it in The UK at the moment is a shit show.

嗯。我有不同的看法

Yeah. I have a different point of view

不过好吧。

though Okay.

我想和大多数人不一样。我们开始了吗？我们要继续吗？

I think than most people. Are we on? We're going?

开始了。就是这样。哦，我们开始了。

We're going. This is it. Oh, we're going.

我们开始了。好的。是的。我是阿特·拉弗的信徒，拉弗曲线供给学派经济学。实际上我认为减税是个非常好的主意。

We're on. Okay. Yeah. So I am a disciple of Art Laffer, Laffer Curve Supply Side Economics. And I actually think cutting taxes is a very good idea.

而且我认为，特别是在英国脱欧之后，这将使英国与欧洲更加区分开来，如果你问我，这才是真正的关键所在。对吧？

And because I think it will especially with Brexit now, it will it will distinguish The UK that much more from Europe which if you ask me is the real you know what show. Yes. Right?

嗯，是的。我的意思是，我们现在在英国也有这个机会，特别是在比特币方面。是的。我们不受欧盟限制。我们有机会成为比特币的中心，这是我在努力推动的事情。

Well, yeah. I mean, we also have this opportunity in The UK now, specifically with Bitcoin. Yes. We aren't restricted by the EU. We have an opportunity to become a center for it, and it's something I'm trying to work on.

你在英国住过。对吧？

You've lived in The UK. Right?

是的。那时我还很小。我在剑桥附近住了五年。

Yes. I was I was very young. I lived near Cambridge for five years.

那离我家乡不远。是的。我告诉很多人我来自哪里，他们都没听说过。但你大概听说过贝德福德。

That's not far from where I'm from. Yeah. So I tell a lot of people where I'm from and they've never heard of it. But you've probably heard of Bedford.

是的。我听说过。当然。

Yes. I have. Absolutely.

大概30分钟吧，不过自从你上次去过之后，他们建了一条绕道，所以现在只要20到30分钟就能到。

Like, 30 well, there's an since you've been there, they built a bypass so we can get there in twenty, thirty minutes.

哦，哇，那太好了。

Oh, wow. Yeah. Very good.

你也曾在爱尔兰住过吗？

And did you also live in Ireland?

在爱尔兰住过一年，那时我父亲正从一份合同工作转到美国的另一份合同工作。

Lived in Ireland for a year as my father was moving from one set of contracts to another in The United States.

是在都柏林还是？

Dublin or

不是。我们住在爱尔兰的西南部，就是凯里郡的丁格尔半岛。那时我还能说一口流利的盖尔语，现在他们叫它爱尔兰语了。

No. We lived in the Southwest Part of Ireland. So Kerry, the Dingle Peninsula, and I was fluent in at the time, Gaelic. They'd call it Irish now. But yeah.

我父亲是爱尔兰人。他住在——哦，真的吗？对，他住在多尼戈尔。

So my my dad's Irish. He lives Oh, really? Yeah. He lives in Donegal.

哦，我父亲来自多尼戈尔。我刚去过那里。

Oh, my my father's from Donegal. I was just there.

不会吧。真的吗？

No way. Yes.

他在莱特肯尼附近。

He Near Latterkenny.

当然，我知道。我父亲住在巴兰特拉，就在多尼戈尔南边。

Of course, I know. Well, my dad lives in Ballantra, which is just South of Donegal.

好的。

Okay.

而且，是的。他在利什长大，后来搬到英格兰，大约十二年前退休后又回到了那里。哦，真有趣。是的。

And, yeah. He grew up in Leeshe, moved to England, and then retired back there about twelve years ago. Oh. That's funny. Yes.

欢迎来到《比特币做了什么》。你是我目标名单上剩下的三个人之一，因为我已经成功采访了其他人。我很幸运，采访到了布克莱和扎巴，有些人很难联系到，而我还剩下你、杰克·多尔西和伊丽莎白·斯塔克。

Well, welcome to what Bitcoin did. You're one of three people I'd left on my target list because I've I've managed to interview everyone. I've been lucky. I've had Bukele and Zaba and some people are very difficult to get and I had you, Jack Dorsey and Elizabeth Stark left.

嗯，我感到很荣幸。

Well, I'm honored.

谢谢，我们才感到荣幸。我曾在Twitter上给你发过消息，因为你关注了我，顺便说一句，我为我的Twitter内容感到抱歉。

Thank We're honored. I messaged you on Twitter once because you followed me, which by the way, I'm sorry about my Twitter.

哦，不。我今天刚看了你的动态。不，你非常有趣。

Oh, no. I was just looking at your feed today. No, you're very interesting.

我有时会有点挑衅性。

I'm a little bit provocative sometimes.

是的，这正是我喜欢的。

Yes, that's what I like.

好的，感谢你参加这个节目。我们有很多话题想和你讨论。今天希望能涵盖很多内容。Danny对此也非常兴奋。我们实际上是专程来迈阿密见你的。

Well, thank you for coming on the show. There's a lot we want to talk to you about. We're to try and get through a lot today. Danny also was very excited about this. We actually came to Miami specifically to meet you.

我认识Yassine有一段时间了。Yassine上过节目，他也帮过忙

I've known Yassine for a while. Yassine's been on the show, and he's helped

我们无畏的加密货币领袖。

Our fearless crypto leader.

是的。无畏的加密货币Mantra。那个在这里被禁止的东西。

Yes. Fearless crypto Mantra. That that was banned around here.

哦，抱歉。是比特币。好吧。这挺糟糕的。哦，是的。

Oh, sorry. It's Bitcoin. Okay. It's quite bad. Oh, yes.

是的。比特币。不过。所以能和你交谈是个难得的机会，我可能会涉及一些看似基础但重要的话题。根据我与节目相关人员的交流，大家首先想了解的是你的背景。我们团队之前讨论过，虽然看过你所有的采访，但很少听你谈及自己的经历，你是如何开始运营ARC的。

Yes. Bitcoin. But yeah. So it's a rare opportunity to talk to you, so I might cover a few things that seem a little bit basic and but I think what I know from speaking to the people who are associated with the show, the first thing everyone wanted to know was kind of your background. We as a team were talking about this beforehand, and we've seen you do all these interviews, but we we don't really really hear you talk about your background, how you came to be running ARC.

这段旅程是怎样的？

What was the journey?

好的。Art Laffer是我在南加州大学的教授之一，他把我引荐给了西海岸的Capital Group。当时——现在依然如此——我相信Capital Group是资产管理行业中最优秀的研究机构。

Yes. Okay. Well, Art Laffer Yeah. Was one of my professors at the University of Southern California, introduced me to Capital Group on the West Coast. Capital Group at the time and and still, I believe, was the best research organization in the asset management industry, I believe.

我加入后，最初的几个项目之一...这要暴露我的年龄了，不过没关系。我以我的年纪为荣。1977年我开始在Capital工作时，还在上大学。

And so I got there, and one of my first projects was to work so this was now this is gonna date me, and that's fine. I'm proud of my age. So I was in college when I started at Capital. It was 1977.

我出生前一年。

Year before I was born.

在你出生之前。我的第一个项目是研究1997年的香港。想象一下二十年的时间跨度。我当时心想，我太喜欢这个了。世界尽在我的掌握之中。

Before you were born. And my first project was to work on Hong Kong 1997. Think about that twenty year time horizon. And I thought to myself, I love this. I mean, the world is my oyster.

我们学习如何通过获取知识来获得报酬。这简直不可思议。所以我那时就爱上了这个行业。我见证了行业的兴衰轨迹——我说的不是ARK基金，而是历史弧线。那时候没有电脑，没有无线电话，什么都没有。

We get to learn about how we get to paid to learn. That's unbelievable. So I fell in love with the business, back then. And and and I've seen the arc of our business, and I what I mean is not ARK, I mean ARC. So back then, there were no computers, no wireless phones, nothing.

我们连涂改液都很少用。这就是我们当时的原始状态。但我们做着真正的研究，进行大量批判性思考：世界将如何运转？哪些公司会在新环境中胜出？八九十年代是这个行业的黄金时期。后来经历了科技电信泡沫和08、09年的金融崩盘。

We we barely had whiteout. You know, that's how primitive we were. But we were doing real research and think at a lot of critical thinking about how the world was going to work, what companies would do well in this new world. And we've gone from that and and the heyday of that was eighties and nineties. And then we have the tech and telecom crash and the o eight, nine meltdown.

世界变了，我们的行业也变得被动。现在去参加ETF大会就会发现，投资者根本不清楚ETF的成分股，也不在乎。他们只关心不同市场环境下的表现。主动管理的艺术——我认为——很大程度上因为这些危机和风险规避（职业风险、商业风险）而失落了。总之，我确实走出了自己的路。

And the world has got and our business has gone passive. You know, if you go to some of these conferences, ETF conferences for example, investors don't even really know what's in these ETFs and they don't care. All they care is they're gonna act a certain way in different kinds of market environments. So the art, associated with active management, I think, has been lost in great measure because of these crises and risk aversion, career risk, business risk. Anyway, so I I did make my way.

资本集团、詹尼森联合公司，我在那里度过了十八年，在那里成长。西格斯·阿加里斯是位了不起的导师，他现在88岁仍是该公司的首席投资官。

Capital Group, Janison Associates, I was there for eighteen years, grew up there. Sigs Agallis, incredible mentor. He's still the chief investment officer there at the age of 88, I think.

哇。

Wow.

这难道不令人惊叹吗？之后我创办了对冲基金，最终又加入了联博。当时我们运营的是全球规模最大的女性掌舵对冲基金，恰逢最佳时机——那是在98、99年到2000年间。

Isn't that amazing? And then I ended up at AllianceBernstein after after starting a a hedge fund. And we worked for it was the largest woman owned hedge fund in the world at that time. And we hit it at a perfect time. It was ninety eight, ninety nine, two thousand.

我的合伙人（其家族财富的掌管者）认为，既然我们已经让他们的资金翻了三倍，但又不打算继续机构化扩张，于是我便去了联博。我是他们首位从外部引进的基金经理，主要因为我一贯自上而下的投资方式，同时又能像其他团队那样自下而上深入研究个股。他们需要更具宏观视野、能以不同视角看待世界的人。我在那里待了十二年，主管全球主题策略。

And my partners whose family's fortune this was decided, okay. We we had tripled their money and, you know, we weren't gonna build out institutionally. So I went off to AllianceBernstein, the first portfolio manager brought in from the outside, mostly because of the way I've always done things, starting from the top down and being as bottom up stock research driven as any other team out there. But they wanted someone who had more of a macro orientation and just came at the world from a bit of a different angle. So I was there for twelve years, head of global thematic strategies.

但被动投资的趋势愈演愈烈，尤其在08、09年后。我逐渐成为异类，意识到可能需要离开——也确实因此离职创办了自己的公司。哇，终于能重新将真正的研究带入投资流程了。

But this movement towards passive was intensifying, especially after o eight, o '9. And I was becoming more and more of a a different duck. And I realized that I would probably need to leave and and did for that reason and start my own firm. Wow. And and get back to bringing real research into the investment process.

同时满足当前市场未被满足的需求。过去二十年行业的变化令人难以置信，研究分析在我们这行已经支离破碎。如果讨论资本的有效配置，这确实是个大问题。要知道，这些基准和指数全是基于历史表现的。

And that and and meeting and and fulfilling an unmet need out there now. It's unbelievable what's happened in the last twenty years. How much research has disintegrated in our industry. And that is a real problem if we're talking about efficient allocation of capital. You know, these benchmarks and indexes are all backwards looking.

那些指数中的巨头企业上榜是因为过往成功。但如果我们判断正确——这也正是我创立ARC的原因——未来五到二十年将见证比电话、电力、汽车（这三者曾同期出现）更颠覆性的、真正变革性的创新。眼下我们有五大技术平台正在酝酿，涉及14项呈指数级增长的技术。

The the biggest stocks and companies in those indexes are there because of past success. But if we're right and this is why I founded ARC and we're going to see more disruptive, I mean truly transformative innovation over the next five to twenty years than we have ever seen. I mean, it it dwarfs even telephone electricity automobile. Those were three platforms at the same time. We have five brewing now and they involve 14 different technologies, all of which are are growing exponentially.

若我们判断正确，传统秩序将被颠覆，那些指数就不再是好的投资标的。但我在对抗历史惯性——随着这二十年趋势形成，它已成自我实现的预言：越多人投资指数，指数表现就越好。

So if we're right, then the traditional world order will be disrupted and those indexes are not going to be a good place to invest. Now what I'm fighting here is history because as that twenty year phenomenon took place, it became a self fulfilling prophecy. The more people investing in indexes, the better those indexes did.

确实。

Right.

所以我们已经在FANG股票上取得了首次突破。它们正在瓦解，而这些曾是大多数大盘基准指数中最大的公司。它们因颠覆性竞争而崩溃。TikTok正在造成严重破坏。这就是第一个典型案例。

So we've had our first breakthrough though with the FANG's. They're breaking down and those were the biggest companies in most large cap benchmarks. They're breaking down because of disruption. TikTok is wreaking havoc. And so that's the first case in point.

小心。

Watch out.

所以FANG股正在崩盘。我们在社交媒体领域看到了更多颠覆。像亚马逊或谷歌这样的公司会面临哪些具体挑战？亚马逊的建设和创新能力是否存在上限？

So the fangs are breaking down. We've seen the disruption in social media a little bit more. What what are the particular challenges that some someone like Amazon or Google will have? Is there like a limit to how much Amazon can actually build and create?

亚马逊不是社交网络，而社交电商的市场份额确实在增长。它不会消失，但可能会成为在线零售界的沃尔玛——这是我的预测。

So Amazon Amazon is not a social network and it does seem like social commerce is growing in share. Right. So it's not a social network. It will become it's not gonna disappear, of course. It'll become like the Walmart of online retail is my guess.

沃尔玛股票表现尚可，虽不惊艳，但他们拥有AWS云服务。不过AWS正面临来自谷歌和微软的更激烈竞争。未来不会像过去十五年那般轻松，可以说它已是成熟企业。

And Walmart's been a decent stock. It's not not a barn burner, but, you know and they, of course, have AWS. That's facing a lot more competition from Google and Microsoft. So it won't be as easy as it has for the last fifteen years, I would say. It's a mature company.

是的。需要说明的是，美国在线零售额仅占零售总额的15%出头。虽然增长空间存在，但社交电商——比如通过Instagram看到商品后通过Shopify后端直接购买——我注意到男性用户似乎比女性更多（尽管两者都有），这种模式正在推动行业变革。

Yeah. Now I say that with the full understanding that online retail as a percent of total retail in The United States is not much more than 15%. But the and so there's room to grow. It's just the social commerce, you know, buying. I'm hearing and and I'm seeing the demographic be more men, I think, than women, although both are, but seeing something on Instagram and buying it, you know, with Shopify as the back end and really helping that process along.

因此竞争将加剧，但从传统零售业仍可夺取大量市场份额。

So it'll become more competitive, but there is a lot of share to gain from traditional retail still.

看起来Facebook和Netflix面临最大的挑战，因为Facebook曾是个新颖的概念，但我知道我大多数朋友已不再使用它，他们觉得它很无聊。而Netflix则面临与其他流媒体平台的激烈竞争，同时制作成本极高。

It seems like Facebook and Netflix have the biggest challenges there because the with Facebook, it was kind of a novelty idea but it's I know most of my friends just don't use it anymore. They find it boring and Netflix just have that massive amount of competition with other streaming platforms but a very high production cost.

我认为我们正在见证——当初持有Facebook股票时我们讨论过很多——网络效应在发挥作用。如今的创投资本几乎就是建立在病毒式传播的应用上。但反过来说呢？负面的网络效应。

I think what we're seeing and and we talked a lot about this when we did own Facebook. We we said the network effects and work. You know, that venture capital these days was practically built on that, you know, an app that goes viral. But how about the opposite? You know, the the negative network effect.

正如你所说，很多人正在流失，这意味着对更多用户而言它变得无趣。所以我们看到的是Facebook的负面网络效应。Instagram似乎还好，WhatsApp也是。但Facebook仍是这个商业帝国的核心部分。

Just as you say, many people are dropping off. That means less interesting, for for many more users. So, you know, we're looking at the negative network effect for for Facebook. Instagram, it seems, is is still fine and and WhatsApp as well. But Facebook is a huge part of the franchise.

确实如此。关于Netflix，他们开始涉足广告业务，但这不会像人们预期的那样带来巨大改变。而且竞争不仅来自其他流媒体平台，还有TikTok——任何占据用户时间的东西都是对手。

So yes. And then you asked about Netflix. They're getting into advertising, but it's not gonna move the needle as much as, people think. And, yes, the competition is not just other streaming platforms. It's TikTok, anything that takes a consumer's time.

是的。

Yes.

而TikTok让人上瘾的程度简直

And TikTok is addictive as

我有个12岁的女儿。

I have a 12 year old daughter.

是的。

Yes.

没错。而且，你知道吗，偶尔她会发给我一个视频，想让我看一段七秒钟的小片段，结果半小时后，我还在那里不停地点击、点击。

Yeah. And, you know, occasionally she sends me a video that she wants me to watch a little seven second clip, and then half an hour later, I'm still there clicking through, clicking through.

确实如此。他们正在更多地了解你，以便真正抓住你的注意力。

That's right. They're learning more about you so they can really get you.

是啊。这很有趣。如果你花很多时间研究Facebook在元宇宙方面的工作，你认为这是一个重要的机会吗？因为这感觉像是他们为了挽救现状而做出的最后一搏。

Yeah. It is interesting. Spend If much time researching the work that Facebook has been doing with the metaverse, do you believe that is a significant opportunity? Because it feels like this is kind of a little bit of a Hail Mary for them to save what they were.

你知道吗，我昨天刚读了一篇关于他们在元宇宙方面的努力的报道。一位记者，我想是《纽约时报》的，不太确定，也可能是彭博社的，说，好吧，我需要了解一下这个元宇宙。你能感觉到有一股小小的潮流正在兴起，但硬件确实是个大问题。当我们想到元宇宙时，我的第一次元宇宙体验是什么？

You know, I was reading an article about their efforts in metaverse yesterday. A reporter, I think I think it was the New York Times, not quite sure, maybe it was Bloomberg, was saying, okay. I need to learn about this metaverse. And you could tell there's a little bit of a movement stirring, but, you know, the hardware is a real source of friction. You know, if you when we think about the metaverse, what what's the first metaverse experience I've had?

是Zoom，只不过是用我们的真实面孔而不是虚拟形象。有些人喜欢不见他人，活在那个世界里。我不认为它会像他们现有的产品那样大众化。我觉得看看他们如何将NFTs融入生态系统会很有趣。亚辛和我来的路上还在聊人工智能，以及创作者社区中AI将做出的一些令人惊叹的事情。

It was Zoom, except it's with our real faces and not avatars. Some people enjoy not seeing other people and living in that world. I don't think it's going to be as mass market as any of their current products. I think it'll be interesting to see how they weave, you know, NFTs into the ecosystem. Yassine and I were speaking on the way over, about artificial intelligence and how, you know, in the with the creator community, I mean, AI is going to do some mind blowing things.

而且，NFTs和AI可能会是天作之合。Facebook在人工智能方面取得了进展，但你说这是最后一搏，我认为他们需要多年时间。我不认为随着Facebook负面网络效应的演变，他们能轻易通过元宇宙弥补。也许在未来五年内吧。

And, NFTs and and AI could be a a beautiful match. Facebook's advanced in artificial intelligence and what but but when you say Hail Mary, I would say this is going to take years for them. I don't think I think as the negative network effects associated with Facebook evolve, they it will be very difficult for them to make that up with the metaverse. I think it you know, I think maybe in the next five years, maybe.

是的。我发现自己越来越多地转向推特。现在几乎不用脸书了，新鲜感消退后广告实在太多。感觉这两家公司的竞争就像龟兔赛跑——推特像乌龟稳扎稳打先打磨用户体验，而脸书总让人感觉为变现牺牲了体验。

Yeah. I found myself increasingly moving to Twitter. Now, I barely use Facebook because the novelty is worn off and there were just too many adverts. I feel like in the race between the two of them, it's kind of like the hare and the tortoise really. I feel like Twitter's been the tortoise building the experience first and always focusing on that first where it's always felt like Facebook sacrificed the experience to monetize.

变现问题。没错。推特当然没这么做。所以一家公司股价表现很好，另一家就不行。不过我们且看埃隆接手后的发展。

Monetization. Yes. Well, and Twitter, of course, did not. And that's why one stock did very well and the other stock did not. But we'll see what happens with Elon.

我很期待。我欣赏他关于零审查的理念，虽然估计会走向另一个极端，肯定需要几轮调整迭代。

I'm excited. I like the idea that this idea I like his idea around no censorship, you know, and so we'll see what happens. I'm sure it'll go to another extreme, and there'll be some kind of iteration.

本节目由德州区块链理事会赞助。今年11月，他们将在比特币之都德州奥斯汀举办为期两天的德州区块链峰会。首日活动是比特币矿工的盛宴——顶级CEO团队将齐聚奥斯汀；次日则有美国联邦及州级政策制定者出席，包括参众议员、CFTC委员等。

This show is brought to you by the Texas Blockchain Council. Now on November, the Texas Blockchain Council are putting on the Texas Blockchain Summit in Bitcoin country, Austin, Texas. And now this is a two day event of thought leadership for Bitcoin. Day one is all that any Texas Bitcoin miner could ask for. Top Bitcoin CEOs and their teams will be hanging out in Austin, and day two with top policy leaders from The US, both federal and state legislators, senators, house of representatives, CFTC commissioners.

还能要求更多吗？我不只是在本播客宣传，更会亲赴现场——先和丹尼在拉斯维加斯碰头后，就飞往奥斯汀会见德州比特币圈好友，并将在台上采访一位重磅嘉宾。记得订票参加！

What more could you ask for? And I'm not just promoting it here on my podcast. I'm gonna be heading to the event in Austin. I'm gonna be in Vegas with Danny, but I'm gonna be catching a flight over to Austin to see my Texas Bitcoin buddies and interviewing a very important person on stage. So make sure you book your ticket and check out this event.

希望届时相见！若想了解详情，请访问texasblockchainsummit.org，结账时使用优惠码Petermc20可享8折优惠，并告知是我推荐来的。此优惠十月底前有效，奥斯汀见！

Hopefully, I'll see you there. Hopefully, we get a chance to hang out. Right. If you wanna find out more, please head over to texasblockchainsummit.org and use the discount code Peter m c 20 for a 20% discount at checkout and let them know that I sent you there. This offer is valid until the October and I hope to see you all down in Austin, Texas.

接下来是双子星交易所的赞助环节——他们也是我足球俱乐部Real Bedford的主赞助商。我目前只用双子星APP定投比特币，现在正是抄底时机。我们是长期持有者对吧？这段时间我一直在用双子星逢低买入。

Next up, it is Gemini who are also the lead sponsor of my football club, Real Bedford. Now, I am exclusively using Gemini for buying the cent of bitcoin, but I am only buying it is a time to buy for me. We're hodlers, right? We're hodling through this. Now, I've been using the Gemini app for buying the dips.

他们在用户体验方面做得非常出色，因此我设置了每月两次定期购买比特币的DCA计划。现在无论是应用还是网站，买卖比特币都变得极其便捷，而且Gemini从第一天起就投入打造行业领先的安全体系。他们正在推出特别优惠——我的播客《比特币做了什么》的听众只需访问gemini.com/wbd，新用户在Gemini交易满100美元即可获得20美元比特币奖励。想了解更多详情，请前往gemini.com/wbd。此外，我们还与BCB集团有合作。

They have crushed it with the u x and with that, I set up my DCA for twice monthly buys of Bitcoin. Now both the app and the website make it really easy for buying and selling Bitcoin, and Gemini has invested in building industry leading security from day one, and they are running a special offer. For listeners of my podcast, what Bitcoin did, all you need to do is head over to gemini.com/wbd, and new customers will get $20 in Bitcoin when they trade $100 or more on Gemini. Now if you wanna find out more, please head over to gemini.com/wbd, which is gemini.com/wbd. Also, we have a BCB Group.

BCB集团为比特币行业企业提供在线商业银行业务。没错，我也是他们的客户。当他们听说我难以找到理解比特币的支付服务商时，主动联系了我。BCB的客户包括活跃于英国和欧洲的主要交易所、做市商、基金和矿企，目前正在全球扩张。他们拥有名为Blink的卓越网络，可实现BCB客户间所有支持币种的即时免费转账。

Now BCB Group provide online business banking services for companies in the Bitcoin industry. And, yes, I am a customer of BCB too. Now they heard about the difficulty I had finding a payment service provider that understands Bitcoin and reached out to me. BCB's clients include major exchanges, market makers, funds, and miners active in UK and Europe, and they are now expanding globally. And they have this incredible network called Blink, which facilitates instant free payments between BCB clients for all supported currencies.

听着，我知道很多人和我一样苦于寻找合适的银行服务商。如果你需要一家真正理解并支持比特币企业而非设置障碍的银行，你会和我一样想成为他们的客户。了解更多请访问bcbgroup.com/peter。今天还要介绍我的新赞助商Wazabi——我现在用它来确保比特币隐私。随着Wazabi 2.0发布，比特币隐私保护变得毫不费力，因为钱包已默认启用隐私功能。

Now listen, I know like me, a whole bunch of you had trouble with finding banking service providers. So if you're looking for a bank who understands and supports Bitcoin companies rather than creating hurdles, then like me, you're gonna want to become customer. Now if you wanna find out more, please head over to b c b group dot com forward slash peter, which is bcbgr0up.com/peter. Also, today, we have my new sponsor, Wazabi, who I am now using to make sure I keep my Bitcoin private. Now with the release of Wazabi two point zero, Bitcoin privacy is now effortless as a wallet has introduced privacy by default.

不再需要手动选择混币操作，一切都能自动完成。你只需接收比特币，等待混币完成，之后即可自由使用。所有魔法都在后台自动运行，用户体验大幅提升。记得以前用旧版Wazabi时，光是搞懂如何混币就很麻烦，现在这些困扰都消失了。

Rather than having to choose to coin join, this can all be done automatically. So you just need to receive your Bitcoin, wait for the coin join, and then you can spend freely. All the magic happens automatically in the background, which is a massive UX improvement. I remember when I used to use the previous Wazabi, you know, it's a little bit tricky trying to understand how to do a coin join. All that's taken away.

所有流程都为你自动处理。通过内置TOR网络，Wazabi还提供额外隐私保护，确保IP地址永不泄露。也没有最低金额限制，任何经过CoinJoin的数额都完全匿名。最近我开始更加重视隐私保护，而Wazabi 2.0让这件事变得异常简单。

It's all done automatically for you. You also get additional privacy through TOR integration into Wazabi, so you never leak your IP address. There's also no minimum denomination. So any amount you receive from CoinJoin is totally private. Now privacy is something I've been taking more seriously recently and with Wazabi two point zero, this makes it so easy.

如需了解更多，请访问wasabiwallet.io。

So if you wanna find out more, please do go and check out wazabiwallet.io, which is wasabiwallet.io.

但投资这些颠覆性技术的公司是什么感觉？某种程度上这更像是一场赌博，因为你赌的是创新能否成功。我只投资过两样东西：自己和比特币，所以算不上专业投资者。

What is it like though running a firm that invests in such disruptive technologies? Because it's a bit more of a gamble in some ways because you're gambling on innovation's working. You you know? And so it must be I mean, I've only invested in two things, which is myself and Bitcoin. So I'm not an investor.

我对投资一窍不通。但我投资比特币的原因是它是一项颠覆性技术，我相信它。我认为它将改变世界。但在这个过程中，我也在经历这种投资带来的过山车般的波动。

I don't know anything about investing. But it and the reason I invest in Bitcoin because it is a disruptive technology, and I believe in it. I I think it will change the world. But in doing so, I'm living the roller coaster of that investment.

完全正确。

Absolutely.

所有具有颠覆性的投机性技术都是类似的吗？

Is it similar across all speculative kind of disruptive technologies?

我们的投资方法是先识别核心技术，对吧？然后我们试图理解学习曲线。这些通常通过成本下降和最终价格下降体现出来。我们寻找的是能够跨越多个行业的技术。

So in the case the the way we go about our investing is we identify the technology at the core. Right? And then we try and understand the the learning curve. And, you know, those are expressed through cost declines and ultimately price declines. And we're looking for technologies that are going to span sectors.

它们可能最初是小众的，但最终会走向大众市场。随着时间的推移，这些成本下降会打开新的市场。最后，这些平台会成为更多创新的跳板，从而持续发展。我们使用所谓的莱特定律来分析学习曲线。

So they'll start maybe niche, but will ultimately go mass market. So these cost declines open up new markets over time. And and then finally, these platforms serve as launching pads for more innovation. So they'll be perpetuated. And we have found we use something called Wright's law as we're as we're trying to figure out learning curves.

莱特定律指出：在实体生产领域，每当累计产量翻倍时，成本就会以特定技术对应的固定百分比下降。这些下降率非常惊人——比如DNA测序技术每翻倍成本就下降约40%（从1到2，2到4等）。我们在许多领域的基础产量还很低。我们对电动车的预测更准确，因为我们看到电池成本快速下降，电动车的总拥有成本将低于燃油车——这是两年前的事。难怪电动车会爆发式增长。

And Wright's law says for every cumulative doubling in the number of units produced, so this is more on the in the physical realm, Costs will decline at a consistent percentage rate for each technology, and these rates are pretty phenomenal. If you're looking at DNA sequencing, it's around 40% for every cumulative doubling. One to two, two to four, and we're at very low base in many of these. We got the our electric vehicle forecast was much closer because we saw how rapidly battery costs were coming down and how the total cost of ownership of an electric vehicle would be lower than that of a gas powered vehicle, and that was about two years ago. No wonder electric vehicles have taken off.

我们因投资特斯拉而闻名，正是因为追踪这种成本下降趋势时发现：电动车即将迎来转折点——在新冠疫情和供应链冲击之前，我们预计其标价今年或明年就会与传统车持平。这些车性能更好、更环保，具有诸多优势。

We're known for our Tesla investment, and that's because we're following this cost decline and saying, wait a minute. This is gonna cross over electric vehicles. The sticker price, this is before COVID and all the supply shocks, this year or next year. And, you know, these are better cars, and they're more environmentally friendly. There's a they have a lot going for them.

因此，我们总是惊讶于他人需要多久才能意识到这个世界的变革正在发生。原因在于我们金融市场的架构方式。汽车分析师本应是特斯拉的分析师，但实际上他们是内燃机领域的分析师，对吧？

So we are always surprised at how long it takes others to see that this world is happening. And the reason is the way that our financial markets are set up. Auto analysts, were supposed to be the analysts on Tesla. Well, they are analysts of internal combustion engine machines. Right?

他们并非合适的分析师。我们需要电池分析师。在迈向自动驾驶时，我们需要机器人分析师。我们需要人工智能分析师，并且需要他们协同合作。这在传统世界里是禁忌。

They're not the right analysts. We need battery analysts. We need robotics analysts when we go to autonomous. We need artificial intelligence analysts, and you need them all to collaborate. That's anathema in the traditional world.

股票领域存在大量地盘争夺战。不，这是我的领域。不，这是我的。

There's a lot of turf warfare around stocks. No. It's mine. No. It's mine.

在创新领域，由于不同技术之间的融合，这种情况会大量出现。所以让我惊讶的是，传统华尔街需要如此长的时间才能跟上。我们需要看到那些令人瞠目的意外——盈利意外、营收意外、销量意外、市场份额增长。即便如此，市场仍需时间消化。但我常对团队说，也是每天激励我的——我们的分析师团队正在用全新视角审视世界。

Well, there's gonna be a lot of that in in the innovation space because of all of the convergences between and among the different technologies. So, I think the surprise to me is how long it takes traditional Wall Street to catch up, and we need the whites of the eyes of surprises, earning surprises, revenue surprises, unit surprises, share gains. And even then, it takes a while. So that's that's but but I always say to our team, and I think what inspires me every day is our analyst team. You know, they're coming up with new ways of looking at the world.

他们一只脚已踏入新世界，不断引入新理念。我常对他们说：真相终将胜出。虽然回顾九十年代末的泡沫时期，市场有时愿意展望十年、二十年，用潜在全球用户数量来估值——那是疯狂的九十年代，许多本不该获得投资的公司那时得到了资金。

They have one foot in the new world, so always bringing in new ideas. And what I always say to them is truth wins out. Truth will win out. Now sometimes, if you if you look at what happened during the bubble in the late nineties, sometimes the market's willing to look out ten years, twenty years, and value stocks on the number of potential eyeballs they might have at some point around the world. That was the crazy nineties, and many companies were funded then that never should have been funded.

如今我们处于相反环境。时间视野只有一个季度。他们要立即获利，目光极其短浅。这对我们的策略非常不利，但创新能解决问题。而我们面临的问题比以往更多。

Today, we're in the opposite environment. The time horizon is one quarter. They want their profits now, and they're very shortsighted. So it's a very difficult environment for our strategy, but innovation solves problems. We have many more problems.

新冠疫情成为我们战略的发射台。2020年我们无往不利——创新解决问题。随后通胀和利率开始上升，对此我们或有不同见解，但我们的股票确实成为通胀和利率恐慌的最大受害者。

COVID was the launching pad, for our strategy. We could do no wrong in 2020. Innovation solves problems. Then inflation and interest rates start moving up, and we can have a discussion about that. We might have a little bit of a different point of view, but, our stocks were the biggest victim because of fears of inflation and interest rates.

但重申一次，通胀和利率正在引发更多问题，而创新确实能解决问题。我认为我们公司指数级的增长率应能克服对通胀和利率的担忧。真正需要警惕这种环境的，是FAANG这类增长更成熟的企业。尽管如此，在单季度时间框架下，即便假设五年内估值倍数会向市场靠拢，我们的相对市盈率仍高得离谱，这使得我们在这种短视的市场中处于极大劣势——而这本不该是投资的真谛。

But, again, the these are the inflation and interest rates are causing more problems, and innovation does solve problems. And I think the growth rates, the exponential growth rates, of our companies, should, overcome any fears about inflation and interest rates. It is the more mature growth companies like the FAANG's that really need to, fear this kind of environment. Nonetheless, with a one quarter time horizon and RPEs, you know, in the stratosphere compared to others, even though we assume they're going to market like multiples within five years, we're terribly disadvantaged in a one quarter time horizon market, which is not what investing should be.

确实。关于你们股价受市场拖累的观点很有意思，外界对你们股价下跌议论纷纷。但能否从历年价格增值的角度提供更多背景？我举个蹩脚的例子：每当比特币价格下跌，我父亲就会打电话问我'卖出了没？'

Yeah. That it's an interesting point you make there with regards to, your your price being a victim of of the the markets, and, you know, a lot has been made of the the the fall in in your price. But how do you is there more context to that in terms of price appreciation over previous years? Because the the poor analogy I can give you is whenever the Bitcoin price drops, my dad calls me. And he's like, have you sold some?

'为什么不卖点？之前7万现在只剩2万了。'四年前价格从2万跌到3千时他也这么问。我回答：'第一，老爸，我总体盈利非常可观。'

Why haven't you sold some? It was at 70,000. Now it's at 20,000. He did the same four years ago when it's 20,000 to 3,000. I said, well, firstly, dad, I'm hugely significantly up.

'我从2017年2月就开始投资，而且我的投资周期是十年以上，所以基本忽略这种波动。对了，你们ETF的长期表现具体是怎样的？'

I've been investing since 02/2017. And also, my time horizon on this is is over a decade, so I just kinda tend to ignore that. Yes. What's the context of the performance of your ETF over over the longer term?

首先，你一定会赢的。

Well, first of all, you're gonna win.

希望如此。

I hope so.

噢，你会的，一定会的。而且，我们的做法相似，但或许我们可以尝试这样：我们通过平均成本法加仓，集中投资于我们最有信心的股票。不过如果你只有两种资产——你和比特币，那这么做可能就有点困难了。

Oh, you will. You will. And, we do the same thing, but we perhaps do something maybe you do this. We average down and concentrate into our highest conviction stocks. Now if you only have two assets, you and Bitcoin, I guess that's a little bit more difficult to do.

但我们是从去年二月开始的，2月21日。从新冠疫情的最低点到2021年2月的峰值，我们上涨了360%。在那段时间里，我们扩大了投资组合中的股票数量，因为在疫情底部时我们高度集中于最具信心的标的。因此，我们从大约33只股票增加到了58只。你知道的，期间还有新股上市。

But we started out last February, February 21. We had been up 360% from the bottom of the coronavirus to the peak in in, our peak in February '21. And and, and during that time, we expanded the number of stocks in our portfolio because we had been highly concentrated at the bottom in COVID towards our highest conviction names. And so we went from roughly 33 names to 58 names. You know, there were IPOs.

出现了许多令人兴奋的机会。然后从2021年2月到5月的低点——我们认为那是底部，但现在又接近那个位置了。世事难料。美联储，我确实认为，是这里的一大威胁。我们下跌了75%。

There were lots of exciting opportunities. And then starting February '21 to our low in May, and we think that's the low, but we're getting close there again. You never know. The the Fed, I I do believe, is a big menace here. We were down 75%.

想想看。上涨360%，下跌75%。

Think about that. Up three sixty, down 75%.

我算不清这个。那最终处于什么位置？

I can't do the math on that. Where where does that put you?

最终位置如何？让我想想。有人刚问我，自成立以来，我们的策略可能只比标普500或纳斯达克指数（个位数涨幅）高出不到一个百分点。但如果你告诉我，在这场血洗之后，我们会说‘天啊’。如果差距这么小，那未来前景将非常好，因为我们的波动性远高于基准指数。而且，你知道，这方面也会发生变化。

Where does it put You know, if you've, let's see. Someone just asked me the question saying since inception, our strategy is up maybe a percentage point, less than the S and P five hundred or the Nasdaq, which was single digits. But if if you're telling me that after this bloodbath, I'm saying, oh my gosh. Have we you know, this is a great setup for the future if we're just behind by that much because we are so much more volatile, than than the the benchmarks. And, you know, there is going to be a a change there too.

当资金从基准指数转移时，我们将成为自我实现的预言或趋势的受益者——这个趋势就是从基准指数转向创新投资，因为它将变得极其明显。那么75%的跌幅为何发生？因为大多数投资组合经理，即使是主动管理的，他们仍倾向于贴近基准投资，不愿偏离太远。我们的股票除了特斯拉都不在基准指数里。所以信不信由你，特斯拉比其他股票表现更好，就因它在基准指数里。

When when the shift away from benchmarks happens, we will be the self fulfilling prophecy or we will be the beneficiary of the self fulfilling prophecy or self fulfilling trend, which is away from benchmarks towards innovation because it's gonna become so obvious. So that 75% decline, why does that happen? It happens because most portfolio managers, even the active ones, so they really are trying to invest, they're still investing close to their benchmarks, and they don't wanna be so far away from their benchmarks. Our stocks are not in benchmarks except for Tesla. And so Tesla, believe it or not, has held up better than most of our other stocks because it's in the benchmarks.

当风险偏好回升时，资金就会开始流向并建仓我们的一些标的，从而推升我们的收益。

When risk on happens, then they all start migrating and and and taking, you know, positions in some of our names. And so that gives us the lift.

这是否特别困难？美联储的决策会影响你的基金表现，这会带来新的挑战吗？你希望美联储怎么做，才能让你专注于基金本身，而非他们的行动？

Is is it particularly difficult? Does it bring a new challenge that the Fed's decisions will impact how your fund performs? And what would you wish from the Fed so that you could just focus on on the fund and not what they're doing?

嗯，我们今天刚发布了一封致美联储的公开信。

Well, we just published an open letter to the Fed today.

好的。

Okay.

信中基本表达了：请等一下。美联储委员们，在存在如此多矛盾证据的情况下，你们如何能在最近几次投票中达成全体一致？是的，我们认为美联储正在犯错，而高贝塔股票——也就是我们持有的波动性高于市场的股票——确实受到了不成比例的冲击。但眼下正在发生一些变化，比特币也是如此，我觉得这很有趣。我们的旗舰策略在5月12日盘中触底。

And, basically said, wait a minute. How can you be unanimous in your decision making, you Fed board members, unanimous at the last few votes, when there's so much conflicting evidence out there. And, so, you know, yes, we feel as though the Fed is making a mistake here and that, yes, high beta stocks, which would be our kinds of stocks, more volatile than the market, do get hit disproportionately. But something's happening now, and it's happening with Bitcoin as well, which I find very interesting. So our strategy bottomed intraday, the flagship, on May 12.

而且标普和纳斯达克已经跌破前期低点。上周它们就跌穿了前低，但我们没有。也许我现在说这话会带来厄运，导致我们也跌破，但自五月以来我们的策略表现更稳健。比特币同样如此。

And, and the S and P and Nasdaq have broken below their lows. Last week, they broke below their last lows. We did not. Now maybe I'm jinxing myself, and we will now, but, our strategy has held up better since May. And same with Bitcoin.

比特币在五月的波动后也是如此。它保持得更好，没有连续创出新低，而是在区间震荡，就像我们的策略一样。在熊市末期，我们的策略往往开始跑赢大盘。

Same with Bitcoin after the the the volatility in May. It's it's held in much better. It hasn't hit new lows, successive new lows. It's in a range, much like our strategy is. During a bear market and towards the end of a bear market, our strategy starts outperforming.

为什么？我们这行有句话：新的领涨力量会在熊市末期显现。比如2009年（当时我在另一家公司），我们的旗舰策略相对表现是在11月24日触底的，我记得很清楚。

Why? There's a saying in our business that the new leadership shows itself toward the end of a bear market. It starts outperforming. So at the '8, o nine, for example, was at a different firm, but our flagship strategy bottomed in relative terms, November 24. I remember it well.

然而，市场直到5月——我是说3月——才触底。第一季度，以标普指数衡量，市场下跌了10%。我们持平。然后我们开始起飞。我想这种情况会再次发生。

And, yet the market didn't bottom until May '9 I mean, March '9. And in the first quarter, the market as measured by the S and P was down 10%. We were flat. So and then we came out flying. And I'd like to think that's what's going to happen.

问题在于美联储。我们今天写的文章中提到，请考虑相互矛盾的证据，至少进行辩论。明白吗？讨论一下中央集权的风险。这是一个巨大的风险，因为这不仅仅是美联储的问题。

The problem is the Fed here. And in the piece we wrote today, said, please consider the conflicting evidence and at least debate. You know? Talk about the risk of centralization. This is a massive risk because it's not just the Fed.

这不是美联储董事会成员的问题。可能只有一个成员，那就是鲍威尔，他坚持在对抗通胀的斗争中保持一致性。所以他们所做的，就是刚刚将利率从联邦基金利率的0.25%提高到3.25%，提高了13倍。我们相信，11月2日还会提高到4%。这是利率的16倍增长。

It's it it's not the Fed board members. It's probably one member, and that's Powell who's insisting on unanimity in their fight against inflation. So what they're doing, what they've just done is raised interest rates 13 fold from point two five on the Fed funds rate to third to 3.25, and they're going to go to four, we believe, on November 2. That's a 16 fold increase in interest rates.

这对你直接影响是什么？会改变投资者的动机吗？

How does that impact you directly? Does it change the incentives for investors?

哦，当然。当然。固定收益比之前更有吸引力了。而且现在有一种向安全资产——固定收益、现金或债券——的避险趋势。所以如果你看看他在做什么，我认为鲍威尔主席觉得自己是沃尔克主席的转世。

Oh, sure. Sure. Fixed income is more attractive than it was. It's also there's a flight to safety to fixed income, to cash or or or bonds. So if you look at what he's doing, I think, chairman Powell thinks he's the reincarnation of chairman Volker.

我在职业生涯早期经历过沃尔克主席的时代，他当时对抗的通胀实际上始于1964年4月的越南战争，然后在5月是伟大社会计划。约翰逊总统推出的所有这些社会项目。那是沃尔克在78年或79年继承的通胀的开端。我想是79年。十五年，通胀已经根深蒂固。

Now I was early in my career during chairman Volcker's reign, and he was fighting an inflation that really started with the Vietnam War in 1964, April, and then in May was the great society. All of these social programs that president Johnson launched. That was the beginning of the inflation that Volcker inherited in '78 or '79. I think it was '79. Fifteen years, and it was embedded.

有成本推动的因素。人们已经习惯了在通胀中周旋，要求特定的工资等等。所以那是十五年。等到美联储意识到可能已经过度停留时，可能已经过了十五个月。这有很大不同。

There was cost push. People had gotten used to working around inflation, demanding, certain wages and so forth. So that was fifteen years. By the time the Fed recognized that it might have overstayed its welcome, it was maybe fifteen months. That's a lot different.

而且这一路走来，每一步都与供应冲击相关联。新冠疫情、供应链问题、俄罗斯战争，这些因素难以割裂看待。我认为关键在于——这也是我将与那些坚信通胀恶魔已出瓶的人士产生最大分歧之处——我相信货币流通速度现在将再次开始下降。

And and this has been associated with supply shocks every step of the way. COVID, supply chain, Russian war. It's hard to separate out. And I think the key here, and this is where I'm gonna have the biggest argument with the, the people who really think inflation the genie's out of the bottle. I believe the velocity of money now is going to start falling again.

实际上货币流通速度在1997年达到顶峰后持续下降，在危机期间加速下滑。如果现在货币流通速度开始下降，再加上M2货币供应量同比增速可能在9月跌破3%——若此时流通速度也下降，意味着名义GDP增长将同比持平甚至负增长。这对企业利润是致命打击。而在这种环境下，我们之所以能开始跑赢大盘，正是因为我们的基本面更优越。

It actually peaked in '97, has been falling, falls at an accelerated rate during crises. And if the velocity of money starts falling now, that m two it looks like m two is going to come in below 3% year over year for September. If velocity is falling on top of that, that means nominal GDP growth is flat to negative on a year over year basis. That's a killer for companies' profits. Now in this environment, the reason why we would start outperforming is because our fundamentals are better.

我们代表着新世界，我们的收入增长远超GDP增速。在动荡时期，创新总能解决问题并加速收入增长，新冠疫情期间就是明证。2021年我们遭受的质疑——许多行业老手将我们的战略贬为'不过是居家隔离时期的临时策略'——如今看来尤其讽刺。

We, you know, we're the new world. Our revenue growth is much stronger than GDP. And in times of turmoil and trouble, again, innovation solves problems, revenue growth accelerates. Certainly, was the case in COVID. And I think the carnage of the last certainly in 2021 for us is, you know, our strategy being dismissed by many old timers in the industry as, oh, just a stay at home COVID strategy.

那些所谓的'居家概念股'本应陷入负增长，但事实并非如此。当前局面耐人寻味。我认为美联储本身就是问题所在，他们正在犯错，而全世界正在为此买单。

All those stay at home stocks are are now going to, are going to go into negative growth, which has not happened. So it's it's interesting. I think the Fed is a problem. I think they're making a mistake. I think the world is paying for it.

如果我们觉得美国面临压力，那么新兴市场的情况更糟——我们正在损害美元作为世界储备货币的地位。记得八十年代有过类似局面：当美元给全球造成严重问题时，1985年各国财长通过《广场协议》和《卢浮宫协议》，联手抛售美元并回购其他货币以支撑汇率，防止新兴市场货币崩溃导致的通缩危机（因其美元计价债务的偿债压力激增）。如今历史正在重演，全球金融体系的裂痕将愈发明显。

If we think there's pressure here, the emerging markets, you know, we're gonna ruin our status as world's reserve currency because and I remember there was a similar situation in the eighties, but we responded to it when the dollar was causing so many problems for the rest of the world. Treasury ministers from around the world got together in 1985. There was both the Plaza Accord and the Louver Accord, and they agreed to sell dollars, and and buy back the other currencies to support those other currencies and to prevent the deflationary bust that was being caused by currency implosions in emerging markets and their debt service exploding because it was dollar denominated debt. The same thing's going on now. The same thing's going on now, and I think we're gonna see more rips in the fabric of the global financial system.

英国养老金基金事件本质上关乎银行体系——那些基金本无力满足保证金要求，而银行作为交易对手方不得不介入。因此英国央行已逆转其货币政策立场。

I think what happened in The UK around pension funds is really more about banks. Those pension funds weren't gonna meet those margin calls, and that was that the banks were the the counterparty. Right? So they had to come in. So the BOE has already reversed its monetary policy.

虽然他们声称这种干预只持续到10月14日。

Now they say it's just till October 14.

嗯，他们又延期了，对吧？

Well, they just extended again, didn't they?

哦，是吗？是啊，又一周。我好像听说过这事。

Oh, did they? Yeah. Another week. I think I might have heard that.

就是今天的事吗？对。

Was it just today? Yeah.

对，对。所以可能还要再延一周左右，现在情况如何？这些养老基金在抛售什么来调整头寸？他们抛售的是最容易变现的金融工具——国债和政府债券。

Yeah. Yeah. So maybe another week or some because and so what's happening now? What what are these pension funds selling so that they can be made a little more right, you know, instead of upside down? They're selling the easiest, financial instruments to sell, treasury securities, government bonds.

这就是我们看到国债收益率回升的原因之一。而且英国央行在转向，日本央行和中国人民银行都在支撑本币汇率。这意味着什么？

So that's one of the reasons we're seeing our govern government bonds back up. And, you know, so so we've got the BOE reversing. You've got the Bank of Japan and, the Chinese Central Bank, PBOC. Both of them are supporting their currencies. What does that mean?

意味着他们在抛售美元、买入本币。这会释放部分美元流动性，而当前市场正极度缺乏美元流动性。我认为会有更多央行跟进，而且11月G20财长会议时，达成类似广场协议或卢浮宫协议的几率很高——现在大宗商品价格等多项指标显示通缩，零售商库存积压严重，周期性因素将引发剧烈通缩。

It means they're selling dollars and buying their currencies. So it's freeing up some dollar liquidity, and there is a dearth of dollar liquidity out there. So I think we're gonna see many other central banks doing that, but I also think when the ministers meet the g 20 in, November, that the the odds of another plaza or louver accord type, agreement are are gonna be pretty high because I think that that we're seeing deflation in a lot of indicators now, commodity prices. We're seeing inventories overwhelming retailers. So I think we're gonna see a lot of deflation for cyclical reasons.

此外还有长期结构性因素。科技创新带来良性通缩，但对那些将被颠覆或淘汰的企业而言，则是毁灭性的恶性通缩。

And then, secular reasons as well. Innovation is deflationary, but good deflation. It it causes bad deflation for from for companies that are gonna be disintermediated or disrupted or destroyed. So

嗯，我必须追踪美元价格，因为我所有的赞助合同都是以美元计价的。从年初开始，美元汇率从1美元兑138（单位货币）跌至最低105，现在大约是111。但对我们来说，来美国开展业务的成本也变得非常昂贵。

Well, I have to track the dollar price because all my sponsorship contracts are priced in the dollar. And, from the start of the year, it's dropped from one one thirty eight to a low of 105. I think we're about 111 now. But it's also become very expensive for us to come here to US to base this operation Oh

我的天啊。

my no.

我们的运输成本、机票费用都上涨了。预订爱彼迎民宿，今年总体上涨了25%。我一直在追踪这对我们的影响。我从未见过英镑对美元汇率如此之低。我第一次来美国时是2.05美元兑1英镑，那是在2006年2月。

Our transport costs, our flight costs have come up. Booking an Airbnb, essentially it's up 25% this year. I've been tracking that in terms of what the impact is on us. I've never known the pound to be so low against the dollar. It was $2.05 the first time I came to The US and think it was 02/2006.

我不明白的是——你可能比我更清楚——美元强势对美国有什么好处？又有什么弊端？

What I don't understand and you'll understand better than me is what are what is the benefits to The US of a high strong dollar, but what are the negatives?

好处在于它是一种强大的抗通胀力量。

So the benefit is it's a powerful anti inflationary force.

所以这是国内...

So that's a domestic

这是国内考量因素。没错。而且大多数大宗商品都是以美元计价等等。弊端是，我们将失去竞争力。我们已经看到贸易量大幅下滑，我认为这将是...我们相信已处于经济衰退中，贸易是部分原因。

That's a domestic consideration. It's, right. And most commodities are priced in dollars and so forth. The negative is, we're going to lose our competitiveness. And, so we're already seeing trade drop off, quite significantly, and I think that's going to be I we believe we're in a recession, and and trade's part of the reason.

有趣的是，如果我们第三季度看到GDP正增长，那将是因为贸易正在崩溃，即进口下降速度远快于出口。这在某种奇怪的方式上反而帮助了我们的GDP。发生这种情况的原因是我们存在库存积压。你看看耐克几周前发布的报告，全球销售额增长了约3.5%，而他们的全球库存却增长了44%。

Now interestingly, in the third quarter, if we see a positive GDP, it will be because trade is collapsing, meaning imports falling much faster than exports. And so that helps our GDP in a strange way. And the reason it's happening is we have an inventory glut. So companies are know, if you look at, Nike's report, a couple of weeks ago, global sales up three and a half percent, something like that. Their inventories globally up 44%.

他们在北美的库存增长了68%，而在途库存（主要可能来自中国）增长了85%。这种情况简直令人难以置信。因此我们正在试图减少进口，这也会影响到其他国家的经济。所以我们认为全球经济已陷入衰退，而美元正在加剧这种痛苦。

Their inventories in North America up 68%, and their inventories in transit, probably mostly from China, up 85%. So, you know, it's there's it's overwhelming what's going on. And so we're trying to cut back on imports. That's gonna back up into these other countries as well. So we think our recession I we think the globe is in a recession, and the dollar is exacerbating, the pain.

要知道，食品大宗商品是以美元计价的，而全球其他货币正在贬值，这给各国人民造成了极大困难。美联储在最近几次讲话中（包括鲍威尔在内的多位成员）都暗示了这一点。但我觉得，如果我们想保持储备货币地位，长期来看这不是正确的做法。

You know? Food commodities are priced in dollars, and, you know, these other currencies around the world are, unwinding and just making it very difficult for populations. The Fed tipped its hat to this in, its in some of its last speeches, different members, Powell included. But I I think, you know, if we wanna remain the reserve currency, this is, I don't think, the way to do it long run.

那你认为美联储现在应该怎么做？

What do you think the Fed should do then?

如果我是美联储，首先从舆论角度，我会开始讨论问题的两面性。是的，核心CPI和PCE平减指数确实高于我们期望的0.6%，但整体CPI和PPI实际上是负增长的。你知道吗？

Well, I think if I were the Fed, the first thing I would do is from a rhetoric point of view, I would start I would start talking about both sides of the equation. Yes. We see that core CPI and PCE deflator higher than what we would like, 0.6. But headline CPI and PPI actually down negative. Did you know that?

不，你不知道。因为媒体只报道部分信息。我在公开信中列了一个表格，显示所有大宗商品从峰值下跌了多少，以及它们的同比跌幅。

No. No. You didn't. Because all we hear about, and then there's in in my open letter, I put a table with all these commodities in, and how much they've fallen from their peak and how much they're down year over year. Yes.

看这里的数据。你可以看到黄金和白银都是在两年多前见顶的，木材是一年多前，铁矿石、DRAM内存、波罗的海干散货指数也都是如此。

Here they are. So you can see and gold to me and you can see when they peaked. Gold peaked two years ago, more than two years ago. Silver peaked more than two years ago. Lumber more than a year, iron ore, DRAM, Baltic dry.

那么这是否反映了COVID的影响？黄金和白银是人们在疫情期间的投资选择，而其他所有波动都是市场重新开放后的供应冲击？

So does that reflect is this basically a reflection of COVID? Gold Gold and silver was the investment people are making during COVID, and then everything else is the supply shock once markets open back up?

是的。但我认为最重要的是，我比平时更关注两种金属——黄金和铜。对我来说，黄金是传统世界用来对冲通胀的工具。我注意到它的峰值时间，大多数人不知道它在两年前就达到了顶峰。

Yes. I think, but the most important one to me is there are two I pay more attention than normal to, gold and copper. So gold to me is the inflation hedge that the traditional world has used. And I I look at when it peaked. Most people don't know that it peaked two years ago.

你知道吗？

Did you know that?

我大概能猜到。因为这是少数我确实追踪过的指标之一，当时我还在网上和彼得·希夫辩论。

I mean, I I would have guessed. I mean, because it only because it's one of the few things I did track because I was fighting Peter Schiff online.

哦，好的。没错。那是两年前的事了，之后黄金在1700到近2100的区间内震荡了两年多，现在终于跌破这个区间。铜的情况也类似。

Oh, okay. Okay. Yes. So so that's two years ago, and it stayed in a trading range, 1,700 to almost 2,100 for two years, more than two years, and it's broken down. Same thing with copper.

铜很有意思，因为电动汽车的转型——每辆电动汽车的铜用量是传统汽车的2到5倍

Now copper is interesting because there's a shift towards electric vehicles, which, the content the copper content in an electric vehicle is two to five times that in a traditional vehicle

没错。

Right.

燃油动力车。脂肪和铜的价格在过去一年多的时间里一直徘徊在每磅4到5美元之间，现在已出现下跌。你可以看到同比下降了20%。黄金下跌3%，白银下跌11%。

Gas powered vehicle. So the fat and so copper was levitating between 4 and $5 per pound for a bit a bit over a year, and it's broken down. And you can see it's down 20% year over year. Gold is down 3%. Silver down 11.

木材下跌34%。食品和能源价格上涨。但问题是，货币政策是否会加剧俄罗斯入侵乌克兰所引发的问题，并加重全球民众因食品和能源价格飙升而承受的税负压力？我认为不会。看看这个数据，还有最下面那条，我们上周就看到了。

Lumber down 34. Food and energy are up. But, you know, is monetary policy here to, you know, to exacerbate the problems caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine and increase the pain, you know, around the world of people who are who are being taxed incredibly by higher food and energy prices. I don't think so. So just looking at this and and that last one down there, we saw this last week.

这个数字很难获取。行业报告显示，八月份的箱板纸——就是我们运输货物用的材料——价格在九月份下跌了29%，目前同比跌幅达53%。

So it's hard to get that number. So the the industry reported it. In the month of August, containerboard. Now this is this is what we ship goods around in. Containerboard, prices dropped 29% in September and are now down 53% year over year.

这说明供应链存在实质性通缩，上游库存积压严重，下游库存也令制造商不堪重负，他们将不得不降价清仓。

So there's real deflation in the pipeline, and then you have this inventory. That's at the that's at the top of the funnel upstream. And then you have inventories at the bottom of the funnel downstream that are overwhelming manufacturers, and they're going to cut prices to clear that inventory.

我想问，这个滞后周期有多长？

I was gonna say, what is the lag here?

所以当你

So between When you

预计何时能看到影响

start to expect to see an impact

关于定价？看PPI就知道了。这会很快反映到PPI中，非常非常快。正如我之前提到的，PPI已经开始下降。我认为我们会看到许多更显眼的通胀指标连续出现负值。

on pricing? See this in the PPI. This is gonna get into the PPI very quickly, very, very quickly. We're starting it's already as I mentioned before, PPI was down. I think we're gonna see sequential negatives in many inflation indicators that are more headline.

当然，这些更偏向上游。

These, of course, are more upstream.

那么你认为这实际上与加息无关吗？

And so do think this has nothing really then to do with the raising of interest rates?

不，我认为我们正处于全球衰退中。是的。而美联储认为我们面临七十年代式的通胀问题。所以到11月2日，利率将增长十六倍。

I no. I think that I think we're in a global recession. Yeah. And that the Fed thinks that we have a seventies style inflationary problem. So it's come November 2, it will have increased interest rates sixteenfold.

这在我们历史上从未发生过。

Never happened in our history before.

嗯。

Mhmm.

沃尔克时期利率从10%翻倍到20%，对吧？很多人完全否定这个观点，他们说，得了吧，基数这么低。

Volker increased them twofold from 10 to 20%. Right? And a lot of people say many people dismiss this argument totally. They say, come on. It's such a low base.

不，问题就在这里。自2009年8月9日起，我们已习惯了极低的利率环境，大量利率互换合约（正是英国的问题所在）都建立在利率即便上涨幅度也极其有限的预期之上。因此我认为我们将目睹更多由互换合约引发的市场动荡与困境，美国也可能难以幸免。

No. That's the point. We got used to these very low interest rates since 08/00/2009, and a lot of swaps, and swaps were the problem in The UK, were based on the notion that interest rates would wouldn't go up very much if they go up at all. And and so I think we're gonna see a lot more swap related turmoil and, distress out there. It may happen in The US.

我们知道美国的养老基金杠杆率不及英国养老基金当前或曾经的水平。但根据定义，我们无法预知下一个爆雷点——虽然不确定具体位置，但我认为只要继续加息，全球金融体系的裂缝就会不断显现。

We know our pension funds, aren't as leveraged as The UK pension funds are or have been. So we don't know where the next accident by definition. We don't know where it's going to be, but I think, you know, they raise again, and we'll we'll find another rip in the global financial fabric.

目前这已对英国楼市造成冲击——每月有30万人的固定利率房贷转为浮动利率，导致房产供应量激增。记得你提过有位朋友正在挂牌售房？是的，他们不得不缩减住房规模。确实如此。

Well, we know it's causing a problem in the housing market in The UK now because we have 300,000 people a month who come off fixed rate terms going to variable and that's leading to an increase in the supply of properties. Think didn't you even say one of your friends has put his house up for sale? Yeah. They've had to downsize. Yes.

因为他们无力承担新的浮动利率。部分贷款机构甚至削减了40%的房贷产品，市场陷入迷茫——没人能预测英国央行的下一步动作。某种程度上，这种为对抗通胀的加息举措正在制造新的危机。

Because they cannot afford to pay these new variable rates. There's not even a number of the mortgage companies have reduced their products available. I think there's a 40% reduction in prod products. People don't really know what's going to happen, what the Bank of England's going to do. So in some ways, these rise in interest rates whilst they're trying to combat inflation, they're causing other problems.

简直一团糟。虽然我不是经济学家，只是个喜欢闲聊的普通人，但在我看来——尤其在英国——当局每解决一个问题就会引发新的混乱。说实话，这群人根本不知道自己在干什么。

Havoc. It feels to me like as somebody I'm not an economist, I'm just a guy who sits down and just talks crap to people. But it seems to me like especially in The UK, every time they pull one thing, they're breaking something else. Yeah. To me, seems like nobody knows what the hell they're doing.

这就是我如此推崇比特币的原因之一。

You know, that's one reason I'm such a Bitcoin fan, you know.

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若您想了解更多关于BitCasino的信息——首家荣获EGR奖项的比特币赌场，请访问bitcasino.io（即bitcasin0.io）。请谨记理性赌博。接下来介绍Ledon。从储蓄账户到个人贷款甚至抵押贷款，Ledden的金融服务让比特币持有者无需出售比特币即可即时享受资产收益。近期借贷行业事件证明，Ledden稳健的风险管理策略是正确的方向，他们正打造比特币领域最优质的金融服务提供商之一。

Now if you wanna find out more about BitCasino, the first Bitcoin casino to win an EGR award, head over to bitcasino.io, which is bitcasin0.io. And please remember to gamble responsibly. Next up, we have a Ledon. From savings and accounts to personal loans and even mortgages, Ledden's financial services enable Bitcoiners to experience the benefits of their holdings today without selling their Bitcoin. Now with recent events in the lending industry, Ledden demonstrated that their robust risk management strategy was the right approach, and they are building out one of the best financial service providers in Bitcoin.

他们不参与DeFi收益生成等高风险交易，因此实现了零损失。仅支持比特币和USDC这两种行业最高质量、最具流动性的资产。Ledden坚持透明原则，是首家完成储备金证明认证的数字资产借贷公司，并将每六个月重新验证。提供7×24小时多语言支持，满足您所有需求。他们不仅是赞助商，我现在也是他们的客户。

Now they don't actively trade or invest in DeFi yield generation nonsense and have experienced zero losses as a result of their strategy. They only support Bitcoin and USDC, two of the highest quality and most liquid assets in the industry. They are also dedicated to transparency and are the first digital asset lending company to complete a proof of reserves attestation, which they will reverify every six months. With multilingual support on standby twenty four seven, Ledden is there to support all your needs. Not only they're a sponsor, I am also a customer of theirs now.

我热爱他们的服务理念、团队工作，很荣幸能与之合作。了解更多请访问ledden.io（即ledn.io）。此外，由Swan Bitcoin主办的太平洋比特币大会将于今年11月在阳光明媚的洛杉矶举行。我与Swan团队相识多年，Corey、Yan、Brady正全力以赴将大会打造成比特币社区的庆典。

I love the service, love what they're doing, love the team, and pleased to be working with them. Now if you want to find out more, please head over to ledden.io, which is ledn.io. Also, we have the Pacific Bitcoin Conference hosted by Swan Bitcoin on November this year in sunny Los Angeles. Now I've known the team over at Swan for ages. Corey, Yan, Brady, and they're pulling out all the stops to make Pacific Bitcoin a celebration of the Bitcoin community.

我已迫不及待前往洛杉矶——我确实热爱这座城市。我将与好友Natalie Brunel和Stefa Navara共同主持大会，演讲嘉宾阵容强大，包括Lyn Alden、Alice Glassstein和Preston Pisch等知名人士，必将精彩纷呈。

I cannot wait to get out there. I do love LA. I will be emceeing the conference along with my good friend, Natalie Brunel and Stefa Navara, and there's gonna be an incredible lineup of speakers. You know these people, Lyn Alden, Alice Glassstein, and Preston Pisch. It's gonna be great.

太平洋比特币大会将完美融合教育性与趣味性，提供冲浪模拟器等独特体验，并安排会前会后派对。大会汇聚比特币领域最杰出的头脑，探讨从宏观经济到国家采用、从挖矿到闪电网络等广泛议题。这场首届盛会不容错过，必将成为标志性事件。

Now Pacific Bitcoin is gonna be the right mix of education and fun with some unique experiences. They've got a surfing simulator, and they've loaded the conference with parties before and after the event. They're bringing together the brightest minds in Bitcoin to discuss a range of topics from macro to nation state adoption, mining to lightning. Now you do not wanna miss the inaugural Pacific Bitcoin conference. I know it's gonna be a special event.

重申一次，我已心驰神往。Swan为节目听众提供30%巨额折扣，访问PacificBitcoin.com并使用优惠码peter即可（网址pacificbitc0in.com或pacificbitcoin.com）。

As I said, I cannot wait to get out there. I do love LA. Now Swan are offering a huge 30% discount to listeners of the show. Just go to Pacific Bitcoin Dot Com and use the code peter at checkout. That is pacificbitc0in.com pacificbitcoin.com and use the code peter.

今日最后推介Ledger。今年事件凸显了自主保管的重要性，而Ledger是掌控比特币最智能便捷的方式——这款全球最受欢迎的硬件钱包刚刚升级。Ledger近期发布新款Nano S Plus，更大屏幕使比特币交易管理验证更轻松，其安全性能保持Ledger产品一贯高标准。自2017年2月起，我便一直是Ledger用户。

Also, today, we have Ledger. Now recent events this year highlighted just how important self custody is, and Ledger is the smartest and easiest way for you to take control of your Bitcoin, and the world's most popular hardware wallet just got better. Ledger recently announced the launch of the new Nano S plus, and the larger screen makes it easier to manage and verify your Bitcoin transactions. The Nano S Plus maintains the same high level of security of all Ledger products. And listen, I have been using Ledger products since 02/2017.

五年时间太疯狂了，对吧？我超爱他们所做的一切。他们是我最爱的钱包供应商，今年表现简直炸裂。如果你想了解更多或购买Ledger硬件钱包，请访问shop.ledger.com，也就是sh0p.ledger.com。

Five years is crazy. Right? And absolutely love everything they've done. They are my favorite wallet provider, and they have absolutely crushed it this year. Now if you do wanna find out more, if you wanna purchase a hardware wallet from Ledger, then please head over to shop.ledger.com, which is sh0p.ledger.com.

好的。咱们聊聊比特币吧，毕竟是比特币主题节目。我特别想听听你的比特币启蒙故事——你是怎么发现比特币的？又是什么让你确信这是值得投资的技术？

Okay. Let's talk a bit bit about Bitcoin. It's a Bitcoin show. I would I would be very interested to hear your orange penning story. How how you discovered Bitcoin, and what was it that convinced you that made you realize this is a technology that you did want to invest in?

是的。当我们创立ARC时，我们聚焦四大技术平台：基因组测序、机器人、能源存储和下一代互联网。我们的研究总监Brett Winton在AllianceBernstein共事期间，常在周五头脑风暴时提到比特币。这始于2011年2月，而我们ARC成立于2014年2月。

Yes. So when we started ARC, we had four technology platforms, genomic sequencing, robotics, energy storage, and then next generation Internet. Brett Winton, our director of research, when we were at AllianceBernstein together, was occasionally bringing into our brainstorm on Fridays this thing called Bitcoin. So that really started in 02/2011. We started ARC in 02/2014.

我们经历了Mt.Gox事件后决定：好，就从下一代互联网开始。随着对比特币研究的深入，我们在2015年2月发布了首篇论文，是与Art Laffer合作的。

I guess we had gone through Mt. Gox, and and so we said, okay. Let's start with the next generation Internet. And as as time went on and we did our research on Bitcoin, and the first paper we wrote was in 02/2015, and it was in collaboration with Art Laffer.

然后

And

我当时对Art说：我希望你审阅这篇《比特币能否承担货币的三大职能》的论文，并彻底批判它。Art以财政政策专长著称，但他的导师是诺贝尔货币理论奖得主Robert Mondell，Art还深度参与了欧元区的构建。虽然不知道如今人们对这些事的看法，但...

so I said, Art, I want you to take this paper, Can Bitcoin serve the three roles of money? And I want you to tear it apart. Now Art Art is known for his fiscal policy expertise, but his his, mentor was Robert Mondell who won a Nobel Prize for his monetary theory, and he was very involved in bringing the euro together. So I don't know how people feel about that these days. But nonetheless

幸好我们没参与其中。

I'm glad we're not part of it.

是的，就是这样。当时，阿尔特确实把它拆解分析得非常透彻，这太棒了。他回来告诉我们说，自从我们脱离金本位制以来，我一直在寻找这个。他说，这可能不是一个基于规则的货币政策，而是一个基于规则的货币体系。

Yes. There you go. So then, so Art did rip it apart and which was fantastic. And and he came back to us and he said, I've been looking for this ever since we went off the gold exchange standard. He said, I may not it's a rules based monetary policy, rules based monetary system.

我回应道，哦，然后他说，我可能不同意这个规则，因为他更多是从通货膨胀的角度考虑。所以你需要的是一条价格规则，而非存储价值或数量规则。他说，但这没关系，这是个规则，我们需要回归这一点。我问他，阿尔特，这个的潜力有多大？

And I said, oh, and he said, I may not agree with the rule because he was thinking more in terms of inflation. So you'd want a price rule as opposed to store of value, which quantity. He says, but it's okay. It's a it's a rule, and we need to get back to this. And I said to him, Art, how big could this be?

他回答说，美国货币基础有多大？当时比特币价格是250美元。所以网络价值或市值大约是60亿美元。我问，那货币基础呢？他说，我说，是4.5万亿美元。

And he said, well, how big is The US monetary base? Now Bitcoin was $250 at that time. So it's roughly a $6,000,000,000 network value or market cap. And I said, how he said, well, he said, how's the monetary? I said, it's $4,500,000,000,000.

他说，这就是你的答案。我惊讶道，真的吗？我立刻投入了大量资金，特别是当时我们的分析师克里斯·伯尼斯基。

He said, there's your answer. I said, really? And I immediately I I put a lot of money, especially our analyst, Chris Berniski, at the time.

算是克里斯吧。

Kinda Chris.

你认识克里斯。是的，他是真正负责研究报告的分析师，还亲自挑选了亚辛，这让我们非常满意。但你刚才的问题是什么？我忘了。

You know Chris. Yeah. So our analyst, he was the one really doing the work on the paper and hand selected Yassine, which has made us very happy. But he your question again. I lost that.

你是在哪个瞬间意识到你刚才解释的这些的？

What was your moment where you realized that which you've explained?

我 我投入 我想我从未透露过这一点，但我投入了10万美元。

I I put I don't think I've ever disclosed this before, but I put a $100,000 in.

250美元？是的。我不知道那相当于多少比特币。是400个比特币吗？

$250? Yeah. I don't know how many Bitcoin that is. Is that 400 Bitcoin?

我甚至不知道。当时我没在数。但我一直保留着所有。因为就在他说完那句话后，你

I don't even know. I wasn't counting at the time. But and I've kept it all. But because as soon as he said that, the You

是和基金一起点燃了那个向上的人吗？

did light that upward person or with the fund?

不能用基金做，因为我们必须找到一种证券。于是就有了这个叫GBTC的东西，现在大家都知道是灰度比特币投资信托，它有一年的持有期，他们只是在循环操作。

Couldn't do it with the fund because we had to find a security. And so this thing called GBTC, which everybody knows now is Grayscale Bitcoin Investment Trust, that had the one year holding period and they were just cycling through that.

所以这是你基金的规则，意味着你不能

So this is the rules of your fund, means you can't

是的。ETF只能持有证券，所以我们得找一个。我们找到了灰度。实际上，灰度就在我们切尔西办公室一个街区之外。不错。

Yes. ETFs can only own securities, and so we had to find one. And we found grace Grayscale. Actually, the it Grayscale was one, block away from us in Chelsea. Nice.

于是当他们打开账簿时，我们不得不前往纽约证券交易所。我的意思是，为了让比特币纳入其中，我们付出了巨大努力。我们首先将其加入ARKW——我们的下一代互联网基金，随后又纳入旗舰基金ARKK。但当我这么做时，克里斯突然感到责任倍增。你懂吗？

And so we were they opened their books, and, we had to go to the New York Stock Exchange. I mean, we had to do so much to get Bitcoin in. So we put it in, ARKW, our next generation Internet fund first, and then and then we put it into ARKK, which is the flagship fund. But I and Chris, when he saw me do that, all of a sudden, he felt so much more responsible. You know?

他本来就很有责任感，但十万美金级别的决策让他觉得：好吧，她真的这么做了，而且是基于我的研究等等。所以他更加全力以赴了。这确实是个精彩的故事，毕竟结局圆满，对吧？

He did anyway, but a 100,000 is like, okay. She just did that, and she did it off my research and and so forth. So it was he he doubled down as well. So, I mean, it was it's it's a great story because, well, it ended well. Right?

是啊。那我当时的计算如何？你在试探我。好吧，你们仍然只能投资证券类产品？

Yeah. How was my math then? You're a spar. Okay. You can still only invest in securities?

是ETF。

In ETFs.

对，ETF。所以你们既投资了公司，也投资了灰度信托。你对灰度信托的表现有何看法？

Yes. ETFs. Yep. Therefore, you've invested in companies as well as the Grayscale Trust. How do you feel about the performance of the Grayscale Trust?

你是否基本上将其视为清仓大甩卖？

And do you basically see it as a fire sale?

我确实认为这是清仓甩卖。我最终认为可能需要等到新政府上任，但我们终将迎来一位SEC委员...

I do see it as a fire sale. I do ultimately think maybe it's gonna take a new administration, but we'll get an SEC commissioner in there who

赫丝特·皮尔斯。

Hester Peirce.

哦，是的。是的。我们认识赫丝特，而且我们立场完全一致。只是...她可能会引起很大争议。

Oh, yes. Yes. We we know Hester, and and we're definitely aligned. And I I don't know. She she would be very controversial.

我会很乐意接受。

I'd love it.

但我们也会非常欢迎。

But We would love that.

是啊。我明白。但正如你所说，英国会出现监管套利。美国已经面临企业因监管体系而外迁的风险。如果换一届政府——我是说真正重视创新、从监管层面欢迎创新的政府——我认为会批准灰度转换为比特币ETF。

Yeah. I know. So, but, you know, just as you were saying, The UK, there is going to be regulatory arbitrage. And, you know, The US risks, we're already seeing it happen in business moving offshore because of our regulatory system. And a different administration and, I would say, you know, someone an administration that really cares about, you know, making sure innovation is very welcome here from a regulatory point of view, I think will grant, grayscale, you know, conversion to a Bitcoin ETF.

那样一来差距就会缩小，之后...

And then that and then that gap closes, and that's a After

就看各自本事了。

the races.

天气不错。

Nice day.

是啊是啊。那么作为投资品它怎么样？因为比特币特别奇怪。它不是一家公司，虽然有些人称它为大宗商品，但它是一种特别奇怪的商品，因为它备受争议。

Yeah. Yeah. And what is it like as an investment? Because it is particularly weird, Bitcoin. It it isn't a company, and while some people refer to it as a commodity, it's a particularly weird commodity because it's so controversial.

有些人即使不理解比特币，也会对它产生一种莫名的厌恶。媒体不断攻击它。它在政治上存在分歧，尽管我们看到这种分歧正在缩小。我们看到越来越多来自民主党方面的人开始关注比特币，比如罗·康纳和参议员吉利布兰德都对比特币表示了兴趣，这很棒，因为我们不希望它被归入某个特定阵营。作为投资者，投资并试图向人们解释这种商品肯定特别奇怪。

Some people have this kind of weird hate towards it even though they don't understand it. It gets constantly attacked by the media. It is politically divisive though we are seeing that gap close. We are seeing some people more from, let's say, the the Democrat side come along, Ro Khanna and Senator Gillibrand have all kind of expressed an interest in Bitcoin, which is great because we don't want it to be a part of that industry. Like you as an investor, it must be a particularly weird commodity to be invested in and and to try and explain to people.

对我来说解释起来并不难。

It isn't hard for me to explain.

好吧。

Okay.

我的意思是，当你坚信某项创新是解决世界某些问题所必需的。而且我的背景是经济学和金融学。所以，你知道，我对自己说的话非常有信心。这是第一个全球性的、私人的——意味着没有政府监管——基于数字规则的货币体系。当我这样解释时，我请每个人都仔细听每一个词。

I mean, when you have conviction in in in something as as a necessary innovation to help solve some of the world's problems. And and I'd I I I've had, my background is both economics and finance. So, you know, I feel very confident in what I'm saying. You know, this is the first global private, meaning no government oversight, digital rules based monetary system. When I'm when I'm explaining it like that, I I ask everyone to listen to each of those words.

每一个词都非常重要，这是我们这个时代最深刻的创新之一。我的信念源于我们的研究，源于亚辛、弗兰克和大卫正在进行的重要研究，以及克里斯和整个社区的贡献。所以我对此毫不怀疑。你知道，很多人认为我不仅对比特币，而且对我们所有策略都过于自信。

Each one of them is very important, and this is one of the most profound innovations of our time. So my conviction and it's born out of our research. It's born out great research that Yassine, Frank, and and David are doing now as well as what Chris has done and and the community largely. So there's no doubt in my mind. And, you know, many people think that I'm too confident in not just with Bitcoin, but all of our strategies.

我们在所有创新策略中都面临类似的阻力。这并不新鲜，感觉如出一辙。虽然解释起来略有不同，但这不是一家公司，更多涉及金融领域。不过它本质上是一个货币体系，属于经济学范畴，而我对这两个领域都游刃有余。

We face the same kind of pushback with all of our innovation strategies. This is nothing new. This feels the same. It's a little different to explain, but, it's very it's not a company, so more finance. But but it's it's a monetary system, which is economics, and I'm I'm in I'm comfortable in both of those zones.

你是否注意到当前比特币的热度再次上升？由于经济环境的变化，人们是否在更多地讨论它？

Do you do you see a growing interest again in Bitcoin right now? Are people talking to a bit more about it just because of what's happening in the economic environment?

我们时刻都在接收咨询。我认为人们热衷于听取我们——抱歉——我们对加密货币的整体见解。

We we get questions all the time. I think, people love to hear our, our take on, excuse me, about crypto broadly.

没关系。

No. It's okay.

没关系。我们讨论的内容正如我刚才描述的比特币那样，这是一场货币革命。然后是金融服务革命——去中心化金融（DeFi），虽然稍显中心化；接着是围绕数字产权的新一代互联网革命。我意识到这些都涉及产权问题，但当你谈论创作者经济以及消费与投资的融合时，第三类可能更具中心化特征。当人们（尤其是年轻人）听到我们描绘这个新世界时，往往能引发强烈共鸣。

It's okay. So but what we talk about is in the way I just described Bitcoin, that's the money revolution. And then we have the financial services revolution, DeFi, little more centralized, but and then we have, the the next generation Internet, revolution around digital property rights. And I realize all of these are, involve property rights, but when you're talking about the creator economy and and the blending of, consumption and investment, it's probably even more centralized and in that third bucket. I think when people hear us, describe this new world, especially young people, it hits a responsive chord.

年轻人正将他们的父母带入这个领域。这种代际传导的动态非常有趣，在我的职业生涯中前所未见。

And the young people are bringing their parents into it. So, that's an interesting dynamic. That's no that really hasn't happened in my career before.

确实。

Right.

是的。而且他们正将ARC带给他们的父母作为

Yes. And they're bringing ARC to their parents as

同样。有意思。嗯。那么，感谢您的时间。我们本可以聊上好几个小时。

well. Interesting. Mhmm. So, thank you for your time. We could have done this for hours.

希望我们能再次进行这样的对话，因为确实很有趣。绝对的享受。最后再问几个问题，比如，ARC接下来有什么计划？ARC的未来发展方向是什么？

Hopefully, we will do this again because Yeah. It's Really just fun. An absolute pleasure. And, just to close out with a few few questions, like, what's coming now for ARC? What's the future for ARC?

我们应该关注哪些方面？

What should we be keeping an eye on?

哦，我们非常兴奋。你知道，很多人看待ARC时会认为我们处于守势。实际上我们正在进攻。具体来说，我们刚启动了一个跨界公私合营的风险基金，这是我们的首个社会分配策略。它将通过一个叫Titan的应用分发，这是由Andreessen Horowitz投资的公司。

Oh, well, we're very excited. You know, I think a a lot of people look at ARC and say you know, and think that we're on the defensive. We are on the offense. And, in a couple of ways, we've just launched a crossover public private venture fund, and it's going to be it's our first social distribution strategy. So it'll be distributed on something called the Titan app, which is Andreessen Horowitz, a a funded company.

更切合我们当前讨论的是，我们即将推出两个新策略。它们是独立管理账户的策略，一个专注于加密货币，当然比特币会是主导。是的，真正有价值的货币不会太多。

And, more germane to our conversation here is, we are launching two new strategies. They're, they're separately managed accounts. So strategies, one focused on cryptocurrencies, and, of course, Bitcoin's going to dominate that. Yep. There are going to be very few real currencies.

另一个策略则更广泛地涉及加密资产和我提到的三大革命领域，并将采取主动管理。我们认为，如果以比特币为基础或任何你选择的基准，通过横跨这三大革命的加密资产策略，将有很多机会创造超额收益。

And then the other one is more across crypto assets and and the three revolutions I, I I mentioned, and it will be actively managed. We think there's going to be a lot of opportunity to add alpha if you're using Bitcoin as your base, or whatever you want as your benchmark, with a crypto asset strategy, spanning across the three revolutions.

哇。你关注过比特币与英格兰第十级别足球联赛的融合趋势吗？我认为这是当前最佳的投资机会之一，因为...这样吧，如果你有机会来英格兰想重返剑桥，可以顺道去贝德福德看看。你完全可以在那儿观赏我们的足球比赛。

Wow. Have you looked at the convergence between Bitcoin and tenth tier football in England? Because I think this is one of the best investment opportunities that there are because we are Well, if you ever get to England and you wanna go back to Cambridge, you can take a little journey to Bedford. You can on. You can watch some of our football.

我非常乐意。

I would love to.

我们高居联赛榜首，至今保持全胜战绩。

We're top of the league. We've won every game.

噢，太棒了。

Oh, I love it.

我们是比特币战队。这简直太棒了，我对此无比热爱。

We are the Bitcoin team. This was great. I absolutely love this.

我也是。

I do too.

期待再次合作。亚辛，我们也早该邀请你重返节目了。

Hope to do again. Yassine, we're overdue having you back on the show as well.

谢谢。你呢？

Thank you. You.

非常感谢你能来。希望我们很快能再次合作，真的很感激你的到来。你想把人们推荐到哪里去吗？

Thank you so coming in. Yeah, hopefully hopefully, we will do this again sometime soon, and really appreciate you coming in. Would you want to send people to anywhere?

哦，我们的研究发布在arc-invest.com上。如果你想了解我们如何得出比特币在2030年将达到每枚超过一百万美元的价格目标，你可以在《2022年大构想》中看到我们是如何推演这个数字的。整个过程都非常合理。如果你看我们的推导方法，就会发现我们没有做任何极端假设。其中最大的假设仅仅是——比特币将成为全球每个人重要的保险策略。

Oh, well, we have our research, is on arc-invest.com. And if you want to see the the the how we get to our Bitcoin price target, which is more than a million dollars per per Bitcoin in 2030, you will see in big ideas 2022 how we, how how we populate that. And it's all very reasonable. If you look at how we get there, it's like we're not making any extreme assumptions. We're the the most the biggest assumption is that this is an a really important insurance policy for everyone in the world.

所以这是个非常宏大的构想。

So it's a very big idea.

嗯，这还取决于到那时一百万美元能买到什么。我们拭目以待。但如果真能达到，我想我的团队会非常成功，因为我们持有比特币，这就是我们的策略——这就是我带领团队的方式。凯西，非常感谢你。

Well, it depends what a million dollars buys you then as well. We'll have to see. But but if it does, I, I think my my team's gonna be very successful because we hold Bitcoin, and that's our strategy. That's how I'm gonna get them up the leads. Kathy, thank you so much for this.

谢谢你，彼得。

Thank you, Peter.

这次交流非常愉快。

This was an absolute pleasure.

很有趣。

It was fun.

希望很快能再见到你。

And, hopefully, I'll see you soon.

是的，谢谢。

Yes. Thank you.

好的。你觉得怎么样？你喜欢和凯茜一起看的那个节目吗？听她分享总是很棒。ARK Invest今年确实经历了艰难时期，他们的ETF价值下跌，但他们投资了一些真正能改变世界的有趣技术，这自然会伴随投机周期。

Alright. What do you think of that? Did you enjoy that show with Kathy? It's always great to hear from her. Now, yes, ARK Invest have had a difficult year with the value of their ETF dropping, but they're investing in some really interesting world changing technologies, and this is going to have speculative cycles.

所以，能再次邀请凯茜上节目真的很棒。我肯定会努力在未来请她回来。我还有好多问题想问她。真想坐下来和凯茜好好聊上两三个小时，讨论比特币和投资的一切。除此之外，我现在要出发去爱丁堡了。

So, yes, it was great to get Kathy back on the show. I'm gonna definitely try and get her back on in the future. I've had so many more questions. Love to sit down, have a good two, three hour chat with Kathy about all things Bitcoin and investing. Apart from that, yeah, I'm off to Edinburgh now.

等不及要见到参加比特币大会的朋友们了。我们周六一早就得离开，因为我要赶回去参加足球比赛——客场对阵马尔顿队。虽然我知道你们有些人喜欢足球，有些人完全不感兴趣，但无论如何，这可是我们小镇的比特币盛事。

Can't wait to see anyone who's up there going up for the Bitcoin conference, and we'll be leaving early Saturday because I got a football match to get back to. We're playing away to Malton. Very exciting. I know some of you enjoying the football. I know some of don't give a shit, but either way, it's a Bitcoin thing happening in my town.

知道吗？上次在我们贝德福德小镇的聚会上，有65个人一起讨论比特币呢。

You know what? At the last meetup we just had, we had like 65 people there talking about Bitcoin in my little town of Bedford.

这有多酷？好吧，听着，我爱你们所有人。

How cool is that? Alright. Listen. I love you all.

如果你们对此有任何疑问，想联系我，我的邮箱地址是hello@whatbitcoindid.com，而我

If you've got any questions about this, you wanna reach out to me. My email address is hello@whatbitcoindid.com, and I

会回复你们。确实会尽量回复每个人。实际上，除了那些给我发奇怪东西的人，我都会回复。好了，祝大家周末愉快，

will get back to you. Do try and get back to everyone. Actually, do get back to everyone apart from the people who send me weird shit. Alright. Have a great weekend, and

我们下周见。

I will see you all next week.