金价突破5000美元，原油突破，美元前景堪忧

那他不知道含义的其他词呢？那些都不是他最爱的词。

So what about all the other words that he that he doesn't know the meaning to that aren't his his his favorite word?

但这项研究表明，实际上是我们自己在支付这些关税。

But so the study shows that that we're paying the the tariffs.

但这些关税的问题在于，它们并没有保护美国产业，因为我们加征关税的大部分商品，根本就不是我们自己生产的。

But the the the problem with these tariffs apart from that is that they are not protecting American industry because most of the stuff we're tariffing, we don't even make.

我们根本没有能力生产这些商品，或者即使能生产，也没有足够的产能。

We don't even have the capacity to make it, or if we do make it, we don't have the capacity to make enough.

我们必须依赖进口。

We've got to import it.

而现在，这些关税只是让这些进口商品的价格更高了。

And now the tariffs are just making those imports higher.

你可以在进出口数据中看到这一点。

And you can see that in the in the data, in the import export data.

我的意思是，这很明显。

I mean, it's obvious.

你看，如果外国人真的在支付关税，那么我们进口商品的价格就应该下降，因为关税是在美国支付的。

See, the only way that foreigners, if they were really paying the tariffs, you would have to see the price of the goods that we're importing go down because the tariffs are paid here in America.

我们支付这些关税。

We pay them.

我们开支票。

We write the checks.

进口商把钱付给政府。

The importers send the money to the government.

所以，外国人只有在降低价格的情况下才会承担关税，这样当美国人购买加征关税的商品时，能以更低的价格买到，然后关税再把价格推回到原来的水平。

So the only way that foreigners would be eating the tariffs would be if they lowered their prices so that when Americans buy the goods with the tariffs, they buy the good at a lower price, and then the tariff just brings the price back up to where it was before.

但这种情况并没有发生。

But that's not happening.

我们的进口量并没有减少。

Our imports are not going down.

我们为进口这些产品支付了更多费用。

We're paying more to import the products.

这意味着，从定义上讲，外国人并没有承担我们的关税。

So that means by definition that the foreigners are not eating our tariffs.

他们本应承担关税的一种方式是美元应该升值。

And one of the ways they were supposed to swallow our tariffs was because the dollar was supposed to go up.

他们的货币本应贬值。

Their currencies were supposed to go down.

因此，我们购买他们的产品本不应花费那么多美元，这本可以抵消关税，这样他们就会因为出口换得更少的美元而承担成本。

So it wasn't supposed to cost us as many dollars to buy their products, and that was going to offset the tariffs, and so they would eat it because they would be getting fewer units of their own currency, or they would get fewer dollars rather, for their exports.

但这种情况并没有发生，因为美元已经下跌了。

But that's not happening because the dollar's gone down.

今天的美元汇率比解放日时还要低。

The dollar is lower today than it was on liberation day.

所以，不仅美国人支付了关税，还要花更多的钱来换取外币购买商品。

So not only are Americans paying the tariffs, but they're paying more to get the foreign currency to buy the goods.

因此，商品变得更贵了，而且我们还得额外支付关税。

So the goods are more expensive, and on top of that, we've gotta pay the tariffs.

但关税不仅仅影响美国消费者。

But the tariffs don't just hit the American consumer.

它们还影响那些生产受关税商品的美国企业，使他们的产品变得更贵。

They hit American businesses that are producing the goods that are subject to tariffs, and it makes their goods more expensive.

如果我们打算出口这些商品，我们的产品相比以前就失去了竞争力，因为现在生产它们的成本比以前更高了。

Well, now if we're gonna export those goods, our goods are less competitive than they were before because it now costs us more to make them than it did before.

此外，根据关税税率和具体商品的不同，如果美国制造商必须支付这些更高的关税，而外国竞争对手不用支付，并且从某个国家进口的关税低于美国公司所支付的综合关税，那么即使是美国公司也可能因支付了竞争对手无需支付的关税而变得效率更低。

And also, depending on the tariff rate and the particular good, if American manufacturers have to pay these higher tariffs, but foreign competitors don't, and if the tariff coming in from a particular country is not as high as collectively the particular tariffs that were paid by the American company, Even American companies could be rendered less productive because they're paying tariffs that their competitors are not.

但事实胜于雄辩，因为出口正在下降，而进口正在上升。

But the proof is in the pudding because exports are falling and imports are rising.

因此，从这个角度看，关税适得其反。

So the tariffs are backfiring in that respect.

请记住，唐纳德·特朗普在第一个任期内也做过同样的事。

And remember, Donald Trump did the same thing during his first term.

他竞选时的承诺是减少我们的贸易逆差。

He was elected on a platform of lowering our trade deficits.

他把拜登任内创纪录的贸易逆差当作竞选议题。

He made a campaign issue out of our record high trade deficits under Biden.

他承诺要采取措施降低这些逆差。

He was gonna do something to bring those deficits down.

结果，在特朗普任内，我们创下了新的纪录。

Instead, we hit new records under Trump.

贸易逆差反而上升了。

The trade deficits went up.

我认为，特朗普担任总统的每一年都是如此。

Every year, I think, that Trump was president.

当他离任时，贸易逆差达到了历史最高水平。

And when he left office, trade deficits were at an all time record high.

我认为我们将会重蹈覆辙。

And I think we're gonna get the same thing.

尽管现在的关税比他第一任期时更高，但它们并不会更有效地减少我们的贸易逆差。

Even though the tariffs are bigger now than they were during his first term, they're not gonna be any more effective at reducing our trade deficit.

而且会适得其反的一点是美元走弱，因为很多人认为，如果美元走弱，我们的贸易逆差就会减少，因为我们能卖出更多东西。

And one of the things that's gonna even backfire is going to be the weakness in the dollar because a lot of people think, well, you know, if a weak dollar, if we get a weak dollar, that's gonna reduce our trade deficit because we're gonna sell more stuff.

对吧？

Right?

因为美元贬值后，我们的商品会变得更便宜，所以销量会上升。

Because our stuff's gonna get cheaper when the dollar is down, so we'll sell more.

而且因为我们的商品更便宜了，我们进口的东西也会变少。

And because our stuff is cheaper, we won't import as much.

所以人们觉得弱势货币能减少我们的贸易逆差。

So people think the weaker currency will reduce our trade deficit.

从长远来看，这可能是真的，因为我们太穷了，如果货币大幅贬值，我们根本买不起任何东西。

It may in the long run because we're so poor, if our currency loses so much value, we're too broke to afford anything.

所以没错，从长远来看，情况可能会这样，最终也确实会如此。

So yes, in the long run, that may be the case, and it eventually will be the case.

但在短期内，情况恰恰相反。

But in the short run, it's actually the opposite.

当美元贬值时，我们所需但无法自行生产的商品都会变得更贵。

When the dollar goes down, all the stuff that we need to import but can't produce ourselves becomes more expensive.

因此我们的进口成本上升了。

And so our imports get more expensive.

由于我们购买的商品价格更高，贸易逆差因此扩大。

And so our trade deficit goes up because the things that we buy cost more.

所以我们的进口量增加了。

And so our imports go up.

也许进口数量会因我们购买减少而略有下降，但我们为所购商品支付的价格更高了。

Now, maybe the volume of imports might go down somewhat because we buy less, but we pay more for what we buy.

因此，总体而言，由于进口成本上升，我们的贸易逆差反而扩大了。

So net, we end up with a bigger trade deficit because the cost of our imports goes up.

你可能会想，也许我们的出口会增加，因为外国买家购买我们的产品更便宜了，但我们的进口总额要大得多。

Now you might think, well, maybe we'll export more because our exports get cheaper for foreigners to buy, but our imports are a much bigger number.

对吧？

Right?

因为我们有贸易逆差。

Because we have a trade deficit.

所以根据定义，我们的进口远大于出口。

So by definition, we we import a lot more than we export.

所以，即使我们的出口因为货币贬值而增加，但如果进口也以相似幅度上升，贸易逆差就会扩大。

So even if our exports go up because our currency went down, if our imports also go up by a similar amount, the trade deficit gets bigger.

它不会变小。

It doesn't get smaller.

而这正是即将发生的事情。

And and that's what's gonna happen.

我们将看到美元走弱导致更大的贸易逆差，这会让外国人抛售美元，因为不仅贸易逆差在上升，财政赤字也在上升。

We're gonna see a weakening dollar resulting in even bigger trade deficits, which is gonna scare foreigners out of their dollars because it's not only gonna be the trade deficits going up, it's gonna be the budget deficits gonna be going up.

随着双赤字上升，美元面临下行压力，进而推高消费品价格，推高利率，对整个经济造成下行压力。

And with the twin deficits going up, that puts downward pressure on the dollar, which puts upward pressure on consumer prices, which puts upward pressure on interest rates, which puts downward pressure on the whole economy.

事实上，你可以在房地产数据中看到这一点。

In fact, you can see that in the housing data.

今天我们公布了1月份的待售房屋数据。

We got the pending home sales for January that came out today.

去年12月的数据出现了大幅下降。

Now December was a big drop.

他们将降幅略微调小了一些。

They revised the drop a little less big.

原本是9.3%，后来修订为7.4%。

It was 9.3, and it was revised to 7.4%.

但待售房屋数量还是出现了巨大的下滑。

But it was a huge, huge drop in pending home sales.

指数跌至历史最低点，为71.5。

And the index was at a record low, 71 and a half.

实际上，原始数据是71.8。

Or, actually, it was 71.8, the original number.

尽管他们将降幅修订得小了一些，但指数却被下调至71.5。

Well, even though they revised the drop to a smaller drop, they revised the index to a lower number, 71.5.

现在他们原本预计一月份会有所反弹。

Now they were expecting a bit of a bounce back in in January.

他们预期待售房屋销量会增长百分之二点五。

They looked for a two and a half percent bump in pending home sales.

结果，销量又下降了百分之零点八。

Instead, they dropped again point 8%.

没人预料到会再次下降。

Nobody expected a drop again.

大家都以为我们会迎来反弹。

Everybody thought that we would have a bounce.

可能最低会增长百分之零点二，最高则可能达到百分之六点五。

Maybe point 2% on the low end to up to six and a half percent was the high end.

我们下降了百分之零点八，这使得待售房屋指数降至70.9。

We dropped point eight, and that drove the index, the pending home sale index, down to 70.9.

这是有史以来的最低纪录。

That is an all time record low.

我的意思是，即使你回溯到金融危机时期。

I mean, even if you go back, I think, to the financial crisis.

我以前觉得床垫只是家具，直到我买了GhostBed。

I used to think a mattress was just furniture until I got my GhostBed.

这是一种完全不同的体验。

It's a whole different experience.

我醒来后心想，原来这就是优质睡眠的感觉，因为GhostBed制造的不是普通家具般的床垫。

I woke up and thought to myself, so this is what good sleep feels like, because GhostBed doesn't build mattresses like furniture.

他们制造的是经过工程设计的睡眠系统。

They build engineered sleep systems.

他们的床是严肃的健康设备。

Their beds are serious health equipment.

这些床专为缓解和恢复而设计，而非追求外观或华而不实。

Beds designed for relief and recovery, not looks or fluff.

你的身体在睡觉时应该在自我修复，而不是为舒适而挣扎。

Your body should be healing while you sleep, not fighting for comfort.

我立刻就感受到了区别。

I noticed the difference right away.

如果你早上醒来感觉僵硬、辗转反侧、睡觉时出汗，甚至睡前还要吃止痛药，希望今晚能好一点。

If you're waking up stiff, tossing and turning, sleeping hot, even reaching for a pain reliever before bed, hoping tonight will be different.

这并不是变老。

That's not aging.

这可能是你的床垫在提醒你。

That could be your mattress talking.

我还有另一个喜欢GhostBed的理由。

And here's another thing I love about GhostBed.

你可以在家试用101晚。

You get 101 nights to try it at home.

如果你感觉不到差别，可以无风险退货。

If you don't feel the difference, you can send it back risk free.

GhostBed正在为我的观众提供本季最低价，外加额外九折优惠。

GhostBed is offering my audience their lowest prices of the season, plus an extra 10% off.

前往 ghostbed.com/peter 并使用促销码 peter。

Go to ghostbed.com/peter and use promo code peter.

就是 ghostbed.com/peter，促销码 peter。

That's ghostbed.com/peter, promo code peter.

那么，为什么房屋卖不出去呢？

So why is it that homes aren't selling?

因为它们太贵了。

Because they're too expensive.

这就是原因。

That's why.

价格太高了。

The prices are too high.

人们买不起。

People can't afford them.

那么，这意味着什么？

Now, what does that mean?

这意味着房价将会下降。

That means that prices are gonna come down.

它们必须下降。

They have to.

因为房子的价值取决于人们能负担得起的价格。

Because houses are just worth what people can afford to pay.

因为如果你必须卖房，你就得接受你能找到的最高出价。

Because if you have to sell your house, you have to take the highest bid you can find.

一段时间以来，人们并不需要卖房。

Now what's happened for a while is people haven't had to sell.

他们想卖。

They wanna sell.

他们把房子挂牌出售，但却没人来买。

They put their house on the market, but they don't get any takers.

最终，报价必须下调以匹配出价，而出价已经大幅下降。

Eventually, the offers have to come down to meet the bids, and the bids are way down.

尽管最近抵押贷款利率有所下降，这要归功于唐纳德·特朗普促使政府支持企业开始购买抵押贷款支持证券，我们得以降低了抵押贷款利率。

Because even though mortgage rates have gone down recently, thanks to Donald Trump getting the GSEs to start buying mortgage backed securities, we've been able to bring down mortgage rates.

但这仍然不够。

That's still not enough.

尽管抵押贷款利率已经下降，但距离普通人能负担得起房价还差得很远。

Because even though mortgage rates have gone down, it's not nearly enough for people to afford the home prices.

房价必须下跌。

Home prices have to come down.

我觉得大约要下降三分之一，就像2010年2月时那样。

I'd say about a third, which is about how much they came down, you know, in 02/2010.

我们需要房价下跌的幅度，和房地产泡沫破裂后那次差不多，因为我们又出现了一个房地产泡沫。

We need about the same decline in housing prices as we had, you know, after the housing bubble burst because we got another housing bubble.

这是一场泡沫，因为价格太高了。

It's a bubble because the prices are too high.

价格是怎么变得这么高的？

How did they get too high?

政府将利率维持在零水平太久了。

The government kept interest rates at zero for so long.

人们能够以百分之二点五、三、百分之三点五的低利率借款，从而推高了房价。

People were able to borrow money at two and a half, three, three and a half percent and bid up home prices.

现在你再也无法以这么低的利率借款了，这意味着你无法负担如此高昂的房价。

Well, you can't borrow money that cheap anymore, which means you can't afford to pay so much for a house.

房价必须下跌。

The houses have to come down.

这就像债券一样。

It's just like a bond.

对吧？

Right?

当利率上升时，债券价格就会下跌。

When interest rates go up, bond prices go down.

同样的情况也应该发生在房价上，因为房价是债务的函数。

Well, the same thing should happen to houses because houses are a function of debt.

如果抵押贷款利率上升，房价就必须下降。

If mortgage rates go up, home prices have to come down.

否则，没人买得起。

Otherwise, nobody can afford to buy.

而这才是决定价格的因素。

And that's what determines the price.

这是买家能负担得起的、市场所能承受的价格。

It's what the buyers could pay, what the market will bear.

现在我们知道特朗普不希望房价下跌。

Now we know Trump doesn't want housing prices to come down.

他这么说过。

He said that.

他明确表达了这一点。

He made that clear.

是的。

Yes.

他希望房屋更便宜，但只愿意接受更高的价格。

He wants houses to be more affordable, but only with higher prices.

特朗普不仅不希望房价下跌，他还希望房价继续上涨，因为他希望房主们继续沉浸在自己很富有的错觉中。

He not only does Trump not want housing prices to come down, he wants them to keep going up because he wants homeowners to continue to operate under the delusion that they're rich.

他不想戳破他们的泡沫。

He don't want he doesn't wanna pierce their bubble.

所以他的解决方案是廉价信贷和更多资金。

So his solution is cheap credit, more money.

这就是为什么美联储正在寻找方法降低资本要求，以便银行能发放更多抵押贷款，并将更多抵押贷款保留在账面上。

That's why the Federal Reserve is trying to find ways to lower capital requirements so banks can issue more mortgages and keep more mortgages on their books.

这就是为什么特朗普希望操控美联储并压低利率。

And that's why Trump wants to stack the Fed and push down interest rates.

这一切都是为了维持泡沫，使价格人为地保持高位。

It's all the sustained bubbles to keep prices artificially high.

但你让价格人为地保持高位的时间越长，对经济造成的损害就越大。

But the longer you keep prices artificially high, the more damage you do to the economy.

已经造成了大量损害，房地产市场也受到了严重冲击。

And there's a lot of damage that's been done, and there's a lot of damage in the housing market.

房价必须下降，无论以何种方式，它们终将下降。

Prices need to come down, and they will come down, one way or another.

如果名义价格没有下降，那是因为实际价值正在崩溃。

And if they don't come down in nominal terms, it's because they're collapsing in real terms.

也许你的房子价格没有暴跌，但相对于维持房屋的开支，它还是会缩水。

And yes, maybe your house doesn't crash, but in relation to the cost of maintaining your house, it will.

也许你的房子价格没降，但你买进冰箱里的所有东西的价格都会大幅上涨，取暖、制冷、电费——所有这些开销都会飙升，因为他们必须制造大量通胀，才能阻止你的房价下跌。

And maybe, you know, the price of your house doesn't go down, but the cost of everything that you put in your refrigerator is gonna go way up and everything and the cost to heat the house, you know, or cool the house or, you know, electric, all that stuff is gonna be going up because of all the inflation that they have to create to prevent your your house from going down.

我知道我在播客里花了大量时间批评特朗普政府，因为确实有很多值得批评的地方。

Now I know I spent a lot of time on my podcast criticizing the Trump administration, and that's because there's a lot to criticize.

也有人会说：你从不肯定特朗普做得好的地方。

And there are people out there that say, but you never give Trump credit for the good stuff that he does.

现在我就来肯定一下，因为他确实也做了一些好事。

Well, I'm gonna do that now because he does do some good stuff.

他做的并不全是坏事。

He doesn't do only bad things.

我的意思是，我让人们投票给特朗普而不是卡玛拉·哈里斯，是有原因的。

I mean, there was a reason that I told people to vote for Trump over Kamala Harris.

对吧？

Right?

我原本没料到情况会这么糟，但他确实做了一些好事。

Now I didn't expect it to be this bad, but he has done some things that are good.

他今天对食品药品监督管理局采取的措施就是好事。

And and and what he did today with the FDA is good.

但这还不够好。

Now it's not good enough.

对吧？

Right?

所以我不会给他A，因为他本可以做得更好。

So I'm not gonna give him an a because he could have done better.

但你知道，我会给他一个可能的B-，因为他确实做了一些事情。

But, you know, I'll I'll give him I'll give him a maybe maybe a b minus because he did something.

民主党人什么都不会做。

The Democrats would have done nothing.

那么他做了什么？

So what did he do?

FDA要求进行两项研究来证明一种药物有效。

So the FDA requires two studies to prove that a drug works.

在你获得药物批准之前，必须向政府证明它确实有效。

And before you can get your drug approved, you've gotta prove to the government that it works.

不是一次，而是两次。

Not only once, but twice.

我猜要求两次的原因是，你必须向政府证明第一次的结果不是偶然的。

And I guess the reason for twice is you got to show the government that the first time wasn't a fluke.

所以你需要进行一项大规模、随机、双盲的研究，这要花一大笔钱。

So you to have a study, big, random, double blind study, cost a fortune.

即使这项研究证明了药物有效，你还是得再为政府重做一遍。

And even if that study shows that the drug works, you gotta do it all over again for the government.

对吧？

Right?

所以特朗普政府最终表示，只要一项研究就够了。

So finally, the Trump administration said, well, one study is all you need.

对吧？

Right?

你不需要再做第二项研究了。

You you you don't have to do a second study.

做一项研究就行。

Do one study.

如果它证明了药物有效，那就足够了。

If it proves the drug is effective, that's good enough.

我们可以批准它。

We can approve it.

对吧？

Right?

这是一个重大改进，因为它大幅降低了成本，并缩短了审批流程的时间。

That is a major improvement because it cuts a lot of cost and takes a lot of time out of the approval process.

因为进行所有这些测试会增加药物的成本，增加研发的风险。

Because doing all these tests increases the cost of the drug, increases the risk of developing the drug.

请记住，每一种获批的药物背后，都有几种从未获批的药物，这意味着制药公司投入在研究、开发和大量试验上的资金，永远无法从这些未获批的药物上收回。

And remember, for every drug that gets approved, there are several drugs that never get approved, which means all the money that the drug companies invested in research and development and doing a bunch of studies, they never get it back from those drugs because they never were able to sell them.

所以当他们最终获批一种药物时，他们不仅要收回这种药物的成本。

So when they finally get a drug approved, they don't have to just recover the cost of that drug.

他们还得收回所有未获批药物的成本。

They have to recover the cost of all the drugs that didn't get approved.

这就是为什么美国的药物价格如此高昂。

So that's why drugs cost so much in The United States.

并不是因为世界其他地区在坑我们。

It's not because the rest of the world is ripping us off.

这是因为美国政府要求制药公司花大量资金让政府批准产品上市，从而在剥削我们。

It's because the US government is ripping us off by requiring pharmaceutical companies to spend so much money for the government to say it's okay for us to buy the products.

在美国，情况并不一直如此。

It wasn't always this way in America.

这种情况是从1962年才开始的。

This didn't start until 1962.

1962年之前，制药公司甚至不需要进行任何研究，更不用说两项了。

Prior to 1962, the drug companies didn't have to have any studies, let alone two.

他们连一项都不需要。

They didn't even need one.

你不需要证明你的药物有效。

You did not have to prove that your drug worked.

你只需要证明一件事，那就是药物是安全的。

You only had to prove one thing, that the drug was safe.

只要你能证明药物是安全的，政府就不关心它是否有效。

As long as you could prove the drug was safe, the government didn't care if it worked.

这比我们现在的情况要好。

That is better than what we have today.

我们为什么需要政府？

Why do we need the government?

我们为什么必须向政府证明什么？

Why do we have to prove anything to the government?

如果这是一个自由的国家，有人研发了一种药物，我想试试，政府凭什么说我不能用？

If this is a free country and somebody develops a drug and I wanna give it a try, who the hell is the government to tell me I can't?

如果我的医生想开这个药，他可是上过医学院的，觉得这药不错，想开给我，政府凭什么说不行，抱歉，你不能这么做？

If my doctor wants to prescribe it, guy went to medical school, right, thinks the drug is good, he wants to prescribe it to me, who is the government to say, no, sorry, you can't do that?

直到药企向我证明它安全为止。

Not until not until, the drug company proves to me that it's safe.

我不在乎政府觉得它是否安全。

I don't care if the government thinks it's safe or not.

如果我的医生觉得它安全，我就要试试。

If my doctor thinks it's safe, I'm gonna try it.

但政府说不行。

But the government says no.

但在1962年以前，美国一直都是这样。

But up until 1962, that was the way it was in America.

你只需要证明这种药没有害处就行了。

All you had to do is prove that the drug wasn't harmful.

这很容易证明。

That is easy to prove.

证明一种药不会伤害人，要比证明它有效容易得多，也便宜得多。

Proving that a drug doesn't harm people is way easier and way cheaper than proving that it works.

因为这种药可能对一些人有效，但对其他人可能无效。

Because it may work for some people, you know, may not work for others.

谁知道呢？

Who knows?

然后呢，还有安慰剂效应。

And then, you know, then there's always the placebo effect.

对吧？

Right?

你给某人一种药，他们就会感觉好些。

You give somebody a drug and they'll just feel better.

所以你必须考虑到这一点。

So you have to, you know, account for that.

所以这真的很难，而且很多时候是主观的。

So it's it's really hard, and it's a lot of times, it's subjective.

有时候很难判断。

Sometimes it's a close call.

也许有效，也许没效。

Maybe it worked, maybe it didn't.

有很多药物可能对很多人有效，但因为对足够多的人无效，从未获得批准。

There's a lot of drugs that probably would work for a lot of people, but they never got approved because it didn't work for enough people.

人们因此从未有机会使用可能极大改善他们生活的药物。

And people never got a chance to use a drug that may have really improved their lives.

也许它本可以救他们的命，但他们从未有机会使用。

Maybe it would have saved their lives, but they never got a chance.

所以在1962年之前，情况就是这样。

And so up until 1962, that was it.

那么，如果在1962年之前，制药公司不需要证明药物有效，为什么现在就必须证明呢？

So if it worked back then, if drug companies didn't need to prove their drugs were effective before 1962, why do they have to prove it now?

我的意思是，那时候我们有一个相当不错的医疗体系，药物也很多，但我还可以更进一步。

I mean, people we had a perfectly good health care system back then, plenty of drugs, but I'll go one better.

因为在1938年之前，你甚至不需要证明药物是安全的。

Because up until 1938, you didn't even have to prove that the drugs were safe.

在1938年之前，任何人都可以推出一种新药。

Before 1938, anybody could introduce a new drug.

你不需要证明它是安全的。

You didn't have to prove it was safe.

你也不需要证明它有效。

You didn't have to prove it worked.

你只要推出一种药，想出来就直接宣传。

You just launched it, come up with a drug, and advertise it.

你只需要做这些。

That's all you had to do.

那是一个自由市场。

It was a free market.

那么，这是否意味着人们会因有毒药物而死亡呢？

Now, did that mean that people were dropping dead from poisonous drugs?

当然不是。

Of course not.

哪家公司会想要推出一种开始致人死亡的药物呢？

What company would want to introduce a drug that starts killing people?

我的意思是，那会毁掉他们的声誉。

I mean, there goes their reputation.

再也没人会信任他们了。

No one's gonna trust them anymore.

在政府介入之前，我们有的是自由市场。

Before the government got involved, we had the free market.

我的意思是，如果一家信誉良好的公司推出一种新药，你就会去尝试。

I mean, if a trustworthy company introduced a new drug, you tried it.

但医生们，你知道的，通常你不会使用一种新药，除非你信任的医生了解这种药，也许他和制造商有过交流，他看过他们的数据。

But the doctors, you know, usually you wouldn't use a new drug unless your trusted doctor who knew something about the drug, maybe he was talking to the manufacturers, he looked at their own.

我的意思是，难道你认为公司在把自己的品牌放在某种产品上之前，不会自己做研究吗？

I mean, they you don't think the companies would do their own studies before they wanna put their brand on something?

他们不会只是卖，你知道的，垃圾东西。

They're not just gonna sell, you know, you know, crap.

他们不是卖假药的骗子。

They're not snake oil peddlers.

并不是说那时候就没有这种人。

Not that there weren't any of those.

当然有。

Sure.

总有一些骗子在兜售那种东西。

There's always gonna be some fraudsters out there selling selling that.

但一家有信誉的公司不会拿自己的声誉冒险。

But a reputable company is not going to put its reputation on the line.

它不会推出未经测试、缺乏信心会有效的产品。

It's not gonna bring out products that it hasn't tested, that it isn't confident will work.

它们不能保证一定有效，但他们认为可能有效。

They're not guaranteed to work, but they think they might work.

而且他们会确保至少不会对你造成伤害。

And they're gonna make sure that at a minimum, they're not gonna harm you.

对吧？

Right?

你不会，你知道的，不会想拥有那样的声誉。

You don't you know, you don't wanna have that reputation.

所以直到1938年之前，我们一直都很好。

So we were fine up until 1938.

这个国家始于1789年。

The country started in 1789.

我们一直顺利发展到1938年，期间有公司研发药物。

We made it all the way to 1938, and we had companies developing drugs.

你不需要证明它们是安全的。

You didn't have to prove they were safe.

你不需要证明它们是有效的。

You didn't have to prove they were effective.

你只需要拥有它们即可。

You just had to have them.

这取决于公众、医生和患者。

And it was up to the public, up to the doctors, up to the patients.

他们自己判断药物是否有效。

They decided if the drugs were effective.

如果无效，他们就不会服用。

If they weren't effective, they didn't take them.

如果有效，人们就会继续服用。

If they were effective, they kept taking them.

更多人服用，对吧？

More people took them, right?

如果有效，你会告诉朋友：嘿，我刚吃了这种药，特别好，你也去买一些吧，对吧？

If it works, you tell your friends, hey, I just took this drug, it's great, you should get some, right?

以前就是这么运作的。

That's how it worked.

你知道吗，直到1906年我们才有了FDA。

And you know, we didn't even have an FDA at all until 1906.

所以我们整个十九世纪都挺过来了，就是唐纳德·特朗普常提到的1880年代和1890年代，那时我们最富裕，FDA根本还不存在。

So we made it through the entire nineteenth century, The century that Donald Trump talks about, the eighteen eighties, eighteen nineties, when we were our richest, the FDA did not even exist.

宪法里根本没提过FDA。

There's nothing in the constitution about the FDA.

那我们为什么要有FDA？

Why do we have an FDA?

我想彻底废除整个体系。

I'd like to get rid of the entire thing.

让我们回到1905年，那时还没有FDA。

Let's go back to 1905, when the FDA did not exist.

那样我们会有一个好得多的医疗体系，药物也会便宜得多、丰富得多。

Then we'll have a much better healthcare system, and our drugs will be a lot cheaper and a lot more plentiful.

我们会有很多选择。

We'll have a lot of stuff to choose from.

但至少，让我们回到1962年之前，那是我出生前一年。

But at a minimum, let's go back to before 1962, which is the year before I was born.

但在1962年，你不需要证明药物有效，只需要证明它安全。

But in 1962, when you didn't have to prove that it worked, you just have to prove that it's safe.

我的意思是，循序渐进，我也能接受。

I mean, one step at a time, I'd be okay.

我的意思是，唐纳德·特朗普已经取消了必须进行两项研究的要求，对吧。

I mean, Donald Trump got rid of the requirement to do two studies, Okay.

现在，让我们取消对疗效研究的要求。

Now let's get rid of the requirement to do any studies on efficacy.

让市场来决定。

Let the market decide.

让医生来决定。

Let the doctors.

让患者来决定。

Let the patients.

你知道，在1938年之前，FDA确实有作用，那就是如果政府能证明你的药物不安全，FDA就可以下令将其撤出市场。

You know, before 1938, the FDA did have a role, and that was if the government could prove that your drug was unsafe, the FDA can order it off the market.

所以你不需要证明它是安全的。

So you didn't have to prove that it was safe.

举证责任在政府，需要证明它不安全、有害。

The onus was on the government to prove that it wasn't safe, that it was harmful.

这就是FDA当时所做的。

That's what the FDA was doing.

FDA当时在审查药物、进行检测，如果发现某种药物有害，就能下令将其撤出市场。

The FDA was looking at drugs, testing them, and if they found a drug that turned out to be harmful, they were able to order it to be removed.

但他们无法强制你证明它无害。

But they couldn't force you to prove that it wasn't harmful.

他们必须证明它确实有害。

They had to prove that it was.

你知道吗？

And you know what?

这说得通。

That makes sense.

我的意思是，如果没有证据表明某物有害，为什么人们不能使用它呢？

I mean, if there's no proof that something is harmful, why can't people take it?

在一个自由国家，政府怎么能强迫制药公司说：‘证明你的药不会伤害人’呢？

And how can the government force the drug company in a free country, hey, prove your drug doesn't hurt people?

嗯，我不知道。

Well, I don't know.

我不这么认为。

I don't think it does.

我们你知道吗？

We you know?

你要证明它有害。

You know, prove that it's harmful.

那样才更合理。

That that makes more sense.

对吧？

Right?

你无罪直到被证明有罪。

You're you're innocent until proven guilty.

不。

No.

在政府看来，这些制药公司都是有罪的，必须证明自己的清白。

As far as the government's concerned, all these drug companies are guilty, and they have to prove their innocence.

你开发了一种新产品。

You came up with a new product.

很好。

Great.

在你证明它既不会伤害人，又确实对人有帮助之前，我们不会让你销售它。

We're not gonna let you sell it until you can prove, a, it doesn't hurt people, and b, it actually helps people.

你知道为什么吗？

You know, why?

在一个自由的国家，制药公司应该有自由开发任何他们想开发的药物，而我也应该有自由根据自己的意愿购买它们。

In a free country, drug companies should be free to develop whatever drugs they want, and I should be free to buy them if I want.

我不需要政府。

I don't need the government.

我不需要一个保姆来保护我。

I don't need a nanny to protect me.

不，我不会随便把任何东西往嘴里塞。

And no, I'm not just gonna shove anything down my throat.

是的，我会做研究，如果我不亲自做研究，我也会去咨询那些做过研究的医生。

Yeah, I'm gonna do research, and if I'm not gonna do the research myself, I'm gonna talk to doctors who have.

我不会仅仅因为某样东西在那里就随便使用，对吧？

I'm not just gonna take something just because it's there, right?

我会这么做，而这正是自由市场的美妙之处。

I'm gonna And that's the beauty of a free market.

但现在，我的意思是，一切都乱七八糟了，但至少唐纳德·特朗普朝正确的方向迈出了一步。

But right now, I mean, it's all screwed up, but at least Donald Trump made a step in the right direction.

这不可能。

There's no way.

问题是，我们政府太多了，哪怕少一点都不够。

The problem is we got so much government that even a little less is not enough.

我们需要少得多。

We need a lot less.

我们不能只是在边缘上修修补补。

We can't just, you know, tinker around the edges.

我们必须彻底拆毁整个体系。

We have to dismantle this entire thing.

总之，今天的内容就到这里。

Anyway, that's it for today's podcast.

别忘了，如果你喜欢这个播客，给个赞吧。

Don't forget, you know, if you like the podcast, give it a thumbs up.

订阅这个YouTube频道。

Subscribe to this YouTube channel.

告诉你的朋友们。

Tell your friends about it.

另外，别忘了在Shift Sovereign订阅我们的通讯。

Also, again, don't forget to subscribe to our newsletter at Shift Sovereign.

最近我们发布了很多优质内容，我注意到越来越多的人注册了。

We've been putting out a lot of really good content recently, and I've noticed, you know, more people have been, signing up.

所以这真是太好了。

So that is that is great.

而且，再强调一下，去 Shift Gold。

And, again, you know, go to shift gold.

黄金价格现在又回落到了下方。

Gold has now dropped back below.

不。

No.

它又回到了5000以上。

It's back above 5,000.

它一直在上下波动。

It's been, you know, bouncing around.

它已经回升到5006了。

It's back up to 5,006.

我上次查看时，它大概是49.95美元左右。

When I checked it last, it was like $49.95 or something.

所以，我认为它现在正好在支撑位上。

So but it's I think it's right on support.

在接近5000美元的时候买入黄金，我认为，到今年年底之前，金价会涨到6000美元。

Buying gold anywhere near 5,000, I think, you know, we're going to 6,000 before the year is over.

可能会比那高很多，但至少6000美元，我会把这当作最低目标。

Maybe quite a bit higher than that, but at least 6, I'd say, would be my minimum target.

而且，你知道，白银还在80美分以下。

And, you know, silver's still below 80¢.

七十几美分的低位是支撑位。

Around low seventies is the support.

但你知道吗？

But you know what?

谁在乎呢？

Who cares?

如果它下跌，迟早还会涨回去。

If it goes down, it's going back up.

而且again，你得担心的是溢价。

And again, it's the premiums you gotta worry about.

这不仅仅是白银的价格问题，因为所有这些波动都发生在纸面市场上。

It's not just the price of silver because all this noise is in the paper market.

实物市场的走势完全不同。

The action in the physical market is totally different.

这些溢价正在上涨。

These premiums are going up.

我能看出来。

I can see it.

所以你得趁还有货的时候赶紧买。

And and so you gotta buy them while while the supplies are there.

去 Shift Gold 买吧。

So go to Shift Gold.

我们现在的白银价格依然很划算。

We still got great prices on silver.

还有去 Europe Pacific Asset Management。

And go to Europe Pacific Asset Management.

看看我们的投资策略。

Check out our investment strategies.

看看我们的共同基金。

Check out our mutual funds.

资金将继续从美元和美国股票流出，流入外国股票。

The money is gonna keep on flowing out of US dollars, out of US stocks, into foreign stocks.

你知道，特朗普一直说我们的经济是最热的。

You know, Trump keeps talking about how we got the hottest economy.

但我们确实有着最冷清的股市。

Well, we definitely have the coldest stock market.

即使股市有所上涨，涨幅也很小，与美国以外地区的情况相比几乎可以忽略不计。

And even though the stock market is up, it's up small, barely up compared to what's going on outside The United States.

真正的机会在那里，随着美元进一步走弱——这正是我的预期——那里的活动将会显著升温。

That's where the action is, and the action is gonna really heat up as the dollar cools off more, which is what I expect.

所以去看看我们所有的投资策略。

So check out all of our investment strategies.

我们可以在欧洲太平洋资产管理公司提供单独管理账户，或者您也可以购买这些基金。

We can do separately managed accounts at Europe Pacific Asset Management, or you can buy the funds.

我们预计在今年年中左右推出一只ETF课程。

We are gonna have a ETF class launching hopefully by the middle of the year.

当然，我们正在等待政府批准我们的申请。

We're waiting for the government, of course, to approve our application.

证券交易委员会必须批准这项申请，而长期以来，他们甚至不允许这样做。

The SEC has to approve this, and for a long time, they didn't even allow it.

现在他们终于允许我实现多年来一直想做的事情了，只要获得批准——而我应该能拿到批准——我就会立即推进。

And now they finally allowed us to do something that I've wanted to do for years, and now I'm gonna do it, assuming I get this approval, which I should.

一旦实现，我所有的基金都将推出ETF版本，因为有些平台根本无法购买开放式共同基金，但您却可以购买这些由我管理的ETF基金。

And once that happens, then I'll have ETFs of all of my funds, and there are a lot of platforms where you can't even buy open ended mutual funds, but you will be able to buy the ETFs that will be managed ETFs that will you know, I'll be able to manage them with the funds.

因此，我不必增加成本。

So I won't have to increase the cost.

所以在那之前，您仍然可以通过任何免佣经纪公司购买这些无销售费用的开放式基金。

So but between now and then, you could still buy the open ended funds, no load at any discount brokerage firm.

目前就这些了。

That's it for now.

我明天，也就是周五，会回到Schiff Gold的YouTube频道。

I will be back tomorrow, actually, Friday on the Schiff Gold YouTube channel.

如果你还没有订阅，请现在就去订阅。

If you're not a subscriber, go there now and subscribe.

我明天将直播Schiff Gold周五市场综述，别错过了。

I'm gonna be doing the Schiff Gold Friday market wrap live tomorrow, so don't miss it.

暂时再见。

Bye for now.