黄金刚刚发出警告，美联储无法忽视

这里是彼得·希夫为您现场带来又一期希夫黄金周五市场回顾。

This is Peter Schiff coming to you live with another Schiff Gold Friday market wrap.

今天贵金属市场经历了一个重大且波动剧烈的日子。

It was a big day and a volatile day today with the precious metals.

事实上，最高法院做出了一项备受期待但早已预料到的裁决，判定特朗普的关税违宪，这引发了市场上最大的波动。

In fact, the most volatility really of any market following the supreme court's highly anticipated yet pretty much foregone conclusion decision rendering Trump's tariffs unconstitutional.

最高法院基本上维持了下级法院的裁决。

The supreme court basically upheld the lower court's ruling.

自从特朗普提出或实施这些关税的那一刻起，我就立即表示它们是违宪的。

Now the moment Trump proposed or imposed rather these tariffs, I immediately said that they were unconstitutional.

我对这项裁决以6比3的结果感到惊讶。

And I'm surprised that the decision was six to three.

这本该是9比0的 unanimous 决定。

It should have been nine to zero.

但有三位法官表现出高度党派倾向，今天我对此几位法官的尊重有所下降，尤其是克拉伦斯·托马斯，因为他过去曾做出过一些不错的裁决。

But you had three highly partisan, justices, and I lost some respect for these justices today, particularly Clarence Thomas, because he had had some pretty good decisions in the past.

听好了，总统是共和党人，你倾向共和党，并不意味着你就该判他胜诉。

Look, just because the president is a Republican and you lean Republican doesn't mean you're supposed to decide a case in his favor.

你应该捍卫宪法，而不是支持你所属的政治党派。

You're supposed to defend the constitution, not support the political party of your affiliation.

但无论如何，这是一次预期之内的判决，市场反应最大的是贵金属。

But in any event, this was an expected decision, and the biggest reaction in the markets was in precious metals.

在消息公布前，黄金已经上涨了约50美元。

Now gold was already up about $50 before the news broke.

白银则上涨了约2美元。

Silver was up about $2.

判决公布后，黄金立刻失去了全部涨幅。

Immediately following the decision, gold lost its entire game.

它暴跌了几美元。

It sold off to down a few bucks.

白银虽然没有真正转跌，但也失去了大部分涨幅。

Silver never really rent negative, but it it lost most of its gains.

不知道为什么。

Didn't know why.

毫无道理。

Didn't make any sense.

其他市场几乎都没有什么反应。

And none of the other markets really reacted much at all.

然后黄金和白银强势反弹。

Then gold and silver came roaring back.

我录制这段内容时，大约是东部时间凌晨4点45分。

And as I'm recording this, it's about, you know, 04:45 East Coast time.

黄金每盎司上涨了102美元。

Gold's up a $102 an ounce.

几乎回到了5100美元。

It's almost back at 5,100.

这一周的涨幅很强劲，一周内上涨了超过100美元。

It's a strong gain now on the week, you know, up better than a $100,100 dollars on the week.

白银上涨了近6美元。

Silver is up almost $6.

目前交易价格为每盎司84.28美元。

It's trading at $84.28.

上涨了5.86美元。

That's up $5.86.

白银本周涨幅达到了百分之七点五。

So silver's got a seven and a half percent gain.

大幅上涨。

Big move.

我的意思是，黄金2%的涨幅也不算差。

I mean, gold's 2% gain is not that shabby either.

事实上，没有任何其他市场对特朗普或最高法院的裁决做出如此强烈的反应。

I mean, none of the markets had this bigger reaction reaction to Trump's or to the Supreme Court's decision.

在我们收到这项裁决之前，我们已经收到了大量不利的经济数据，这些本应利好黄金和白银。

Now before we got that decision, we got a lot of bad economic news that should have been very good for gold and silver.

实际上，我感到惊讶的是，黄金和白银的涨幅没有更大，因为在所有这些不利经济数据公布之前，黄金就已经上涨了约50美元，按理说这些数据应该推动黄金上涨，但它并没有。

And I'm actually surprised that gold and silver didn't move even more because gold was up about $50 before all this bad economic data came out that should have caused gold to rally, but it didn't.

现在我的猜测是，黄金和白银对这一消息的反应会延迟到下周才显现，这就是为什么你该在这周买入的原因。

Now my guess is we're gonna have a delayed reaction to the gold and silver, to this news in gold and silver next week, which is why you should buy this week.

我知道一周前，我告诉人们直接去Shift Gold网站购买黄金和白银。

Now I know a week ago, I told people to just go to the Shift Gold website and buy gold and silver.

别等到周一或周二。

Don't wait for Monday or Tuesday.

我以为周末买入会更便宜，但结果证明我错了。

I thought it would be cheaper to buy over the weekend, and it turned out I was wrong.

如果你等到周一再买，反而能买到更好的价格。

You would've got a better buy had you waited for Monday.

但如果你上周末已经买了，那也没关系，你仍然占了上风。

But doesn't matter if you bought last weekend, you're still ahead.

你至少在黄金上赚了100美元以上，在白银上赚了67美元以上。

You're still, you know, at least a $100 ahead on gold and $67 ahead on silver.

所以，即使你错过了周一更好的买入时机，其实也没关系。

So it didn't matter even if you missed out on a better buy on Monday.

但我认为这只是一个例外，而不是常态。

But I think that's gonna be the exception, not the rule.

总的来说，我预计周末会有很强的上涨动力。

In general, I expect a lot of strength over the weekend.

我认为，当亚洲市场周日晚上开盘时，不仅会对关税消息做出反应，还会对即将提到的糟糕经济数据做出反应，届时你将看到大幅上涨。

And I think when the Asian markets open Sunday night and react not only to the tariff news, but to the bad economic news, which I'm gonna get to in a moment, I think you're gonna see big rallies.

所以，再次强调，我建议你不要等到周一。

So once again, I would not wait for Monday.

听完或看完这段市场总结后，如果你还有多余的资金，就再买一些黄金和白银，无论是通过Shift Gold获取实物交割，还是去T Gold，我们可以为你保管。

After you finish listening to or watching this, market wrap, if you're you know, you got extra cash, buy some more gold and silver, whether for physical delivery at Shift Gold or go to T Gold, and we'll store it for you.

我仍在完善T Gold平台，但你现在就可以锁定你的黄金和白银，锁定这些价格，赶在价格上涨之前入手。

And I'm still building out the T Gold platform, but you can still lock up your gold and silver right now and and have it and and and and get these prices before we go higher.

首先，你知道，唐纳德·特朗普在最高法院否决了他的关税政策后，向全国传达了一个信息，称这对国家来说是灾难性的。

Now, first of all, you know, Donald Trump delivered, a message to the country after the Supreme Court struck down his tariffs, basically saying this is terrible for the country.

你知道吗，最高法院正在通过取消这些伟大的关税来伤害美国，这些关税让我们致富，让美国再次伟大，全是这种胡说八道。

You know, the Supreme Court is harming America by, you know, getting rid of these great tariffs that are making us rich and are, you know, made America great again, and all this nonsense.

关税并没有让我们致富。

The tariffs are not making us rich.

是我们自己在支付这些关税。

We pay the tariffs.

我们不可能通过征自己的税来让自己变富。

We can't enrich ourselves by taxing ourselves.

但这些关税甚至没有帮助我们的贸易。

But the tariffs are not even helping our trade.

我们的贸易逆差，我上一期播客里已经详细讲过了，那是昨天做的，我就不重复了。

Our trade deficits, and I went over those on my last podcast, which I did yesterday, so I'm not gonna repeat that.

回去听听那期吧。

Go back and listen to that.

那是我主频道的播客，Peter Schiff 的 YouTube 频道。

That's the podcast on my main channel, the Peter Schiff YouTube channel.

但我们的贸易逆差并没有改善。

But our trade deficits are not getting better.

事实上，最高法院通过确认下级法院的裁决，并没有损害国家利益。

In fact, they're go about to get The Supreme Court did not harm the country by validating the lower court's ruling.

事实上，这不仅有助于国家，还有助于恢复或维护对总统权力的一些宪法限制，这是好事。

In fact, not only does this help the country, but it helps restore or preserve some constitutional limitations on presidential power, which is a good thing.

即使你非常支持特朗普的做法，你也可能不喜欢下一位社会主义总统的所作所为，而特朗普攫取的任何权力，都会被他的继任者所使用。

Even if you really like what Trump is doing, you may not like what the next socialist president does, and any power that Trump usurps is wielded by whoever succeeds him.

而他的继任者可能会做出你非常反感的事情。

And the the person who succeeds him may do stuff that you really don't like.

所以这是一件好事。

So it's a good thing.

即使你认为特朗普的关税政策很好，这些关税也应由国会制定，而不是由总统单方面决定。

Even if you think Trump's tariffs are good, they need to be enacted by Congress, not by the president.

因为如果特朗普能凭借这种荒谬的权力实施关税，谁知道AOC这样的总统会利用同样的权力做出什么举动。

Because if Trump can enact these tariffs, who knows what president AOC, might be able to enact by relying on the same BS authority that Trump relies on.

但不管怎样，特朗普说，尽管最高法院驳回了这些关税，他仍依据自己声称拥有的其他权力实施了新的关税。

But anyway, Trump said, okay, even though the Supreme Court has thrown out these tariffs, he's imposing new tariffs based on some other authority that he claims he has.

我查了1974年的那项法律，总统可以在紧急情况下实施临时关税，我记下来了，最高可达15%，有效期为150天。

And I checked the statute from 1974 where the president can enact an emergency and temporary, I wrote it down, a temporary tariff of up to 15%, and it lasts for a hundred and fifty days.

所以他无法永久实施。

So he can't do it permanently.

他目前实施了10%，还没达到上限。

And he imposed 10%, so not the max.

他本可以提高到15%，我想，但不可能像他之前提出的那种疯狂的50%、100%的关税。

He could go up to 15, I guess, but not the type of crazy 50, a 100% tariffs he was throwing out before.

但我读了这项法律，它只适用于紧急情况，而显然我们现在并不处于紧急状态。

But I read the statute, and it has to do with emergencies, and clearly, we are not in one.

法律所针对的那种紧急情况并不存在。

The type of emergency that the statute was written about doesn't exist.

你知道，它指的是美元的急剧崩溃，而事实上，我认为美元确实可能崩溃，但目前没人担心这个问题，所以美元并没有暴跌，而且这项法律也与贸易赤字急剧扩大、威胁美元这样的紧急状况有关。

You know, it's about an eminent collapse of the dollar, which, you know, I actually think there could be an eminent collapse of the dollar, but nobody is worried about that right now, So so it's not like the dollar is tanking, and it has to do with, you know, an emergency, like a big increase in our trade deficits that threatens the dollar.

但我们的贸易逆差与过去十年、二十年的情况相同。

But our trade deficits are the same as they've been for the last ten, twenty years.

我的意思是，是的，它们一直在增长，但很难说当前的情况构成了一种能触发这项授权的新紧急状态。

I mean, yeah, they've been growing, but it's hard to say that what happens now constitutes some kind of new emergency that would trigger this authority.

但即使如此，这些是临时关税，他不能在关税到期后一再重新征收、重新征收、再重新征收。

But even if that's the case, these are temporary tariffs, and he can't put them in, and then when they go away, reimpose them, and reimpose them, and reimpose them.

他只能实施一次。

He could do it once.

因此，无论他想如何假装，他都不能用这些临时关税来重塑全球贸易。

And so, you know, he can't try to reshape global trade with these temporary tariffs, no matter what he wants to pretend.

因此，现在大多数国家，或者说美国民众，将获得一些缓解，因为大多数进口产品的关税将下降。

So most countries now, or Americans, are gonna get some relief here because the tariffs are gonna go down on most of the the products that are being imported.

与此同时，政府需要退还所有在违宪关税下收取的钱款。

In the meantime, the government needs to refund all the money that it collected under the unconstitutional tariffs.

最高法院实际上并未讨论这一问题，但情况很清楚。

Now, the Supreme Court didn't actually address this issue, but it's clear.

如果关税是非法征收的，那么支付关税的人就应该拿回他们的钱。

If the tariffs were imposed illegally, then whoever paid them gets their money back.

我的意思是，事情本来就是这样。

I mean, that's just the way it is.

无论特朗普政府是自愿退还这笔钱，还是等着支付关税的人通过诉讼赢回款项，他们都可以这么做，但无论如何，这笔钱都必须退还。

Whether the Trump administration wants to voluntarily give it back or wait for the people who pay the tariffs to win their lawsuits, they could do that, but the money's gonna have to get refunded no matter how you look at it.

然而，不幸的是，普通消费者得不到任何补偿，因为退款只给支付关税的人，而大多数情况下，支付方是企业或进口商。

Now, of course, unfortunately, the poor consumer doesn't get anything because it's only refunded to the person who paid the tariffs, which in most cases was the business, the importer.

是的。

Yes.

他通过提高价格把成本转嫁给了消费者，但如果你因为进口商支付了关税而支付了更高的价格，即使进口商自己获得了退款，他也不会退还给你。

He passed it on to the consumer by raising prices, but if you paid a higher price because the importer paid a tariff, the importer's not gonna give you a refund, even if the importer himself gets a refund.

这意味着，未来他不必再收取那么高的费用，因为他以后不再需要支付同样的关税了。

It just means that going forward, he won't have to, charge you as much if he's not gonna pay the same tariffs in the future.

如果你是直接支付关税的消费者，比如你自己进口了某些商品。

Now if you're a consumer who directly paid a tariff, you imported something yourself.

我知道很多人因为自己进口了昂贵物品而被征收了高额关税，他们因此可以提起诉讼并获得关税退款。

I know a lot of people that got hit with huge tariffs on expensive things that they imported themselves so that they could file and they could get refunds of those tariffs.

但主要问题是，这些关税至少为美国政府带来了收入。

But the big problem is that the tariffs were at least providing the US government with revenue.

现在，这些收入的来源是美国人。

Now the source of the revenue was Americans.

这些收入并不是来自中国、加拿大或墨西哥。

The revenue wasn't coming from China or Canada or Mexico.

这又是特朗普的一个谎言。

That's just another one of Trump's lies.

税款是由美国人支付的，但至少这些税款是由政府收取的。

The taxes were being paid by Americans, but at least the taxes were being collected by the government.

因此，这些税款在一定程度上缓解了不断膨胀的赤字。

So the taxes were somewhat mitigating the exploding deficits.

但赤字还是在持续膨胀。

But they were exploding anyway.

现在它们会变得更大。

Now they're just gonna be even bigger.

那项宏伟的法案在一定程度上抵消了影响，因为它增加了赤字。

There was some offset of the big beautiful bill because that increased the deficits.

我昨天在播客中提到，特朗普上任第一年，美国国债增加了2.6万亿美元，第二年情况会更糟。

I mentioned on the podcast yesterday, national debt's up 2,600,000,000,000.0 in Trump's first year in office, and the second year is gonna be even worse.

但关税收入不再存在，而且过去收取的关税还需要退还，这将使赤字进一步扩大。

But the fact that the tariff revenue is no longer there and that past tariff revenue needs to be refunded is going to make the deficits even bigger.

现在，是的，他会在一段时间内征收这些10%的关税，但数额比以前少多了。

Now, yes, he's gonna collect these 10% tariffs for a while, but that's not as much as he was getting before.

而且，这些关税同样是违宪的。

And again, they're unconstitutional too.

特朗普对宪法毫无尊重。

Trump has nothing but contempt for the constitution.

他认为，只要他想做的事，就是对国家有利的，最高法院不该阻拦他。

See, he thinks if he wants to do something, then it's good for the country, and the supreme court shouldn't stand in his way.

任何他想做的违宪行为，最高法院都有责任阻止他，即使他试图做的事看起来是好的。

Anything that he wants to do that's unconstitutional, it's absolutely the responsibility of the supreme court to stand his way, even if it's good what he's trying to do.

但事实上，他所做的事情并不好。

But as it, you know, so happens, what he is doing is not good.

事实胜于雄辩。

And and the proof is in the pudding.

看看这些数字。

Look at the numbers.

你知道，特朗普到处说我们拥有世界上最强劲的经济。

You know, Trump is out there talking about how we have the hottest economy in the world.

对吧？

Right?

没有什么比这更远离真相了。

And nothing can be further from the truth.

他以为我们的经济如此强劲的一个原因是道琼斯指数突破了50000点。

And one of the reasons he thinks our economy is so hot is because the the the Dow hit 50,000.

现在它甚至已经不是50000点了。

Now it's not even at 50,000 anymore.

它大约是49200点，但他一直吹嘘道琼斯指数曾达到50000点，而且从他上任总统开始只用了一年时间。

It's like 49,200, but he keeps talking about how amazing it is that the Dow hit 50,000, and it only took a year from when he started his president.

他说没人相信一年内能实现这一点。

He says nobody believed this could happen in a year.

人们以为需要四年，但我一年就做到了。

People thought it would take four years, and I did it in one.

道琼斯指数上涨了12%。

The Dow is up 12%.

自从他宣誓就职以来，上涨了12%。

12% since he was sworn in.

我的意思是，好吧，12%。

I mean, okay, 12%.

我的意思是，这确实不错，但算不上奇迹。

I mean, that's something, but it's not a miracle.

这比道琼斯指数的涨幅要少得多。

It's a lot less than the increase in the Dow.

拜登总统的第一年。

The first year Biden was president.

那是否意味着拜登是一位伟大的总统？

So does that mean Biden was a great president?

拜登执政期间经济很火热吗？

Did we have a hot economy under Biden?

因为道琼斯指数在拜登第一年期间的涨幅，远超特朗普任内。

Because the Dow did a lot better during Biden's first year than it did during Trump's.

事实上，自从特朗普当选以来，我曾经以为床垫只是家具，直到我买了GhostBed。

And in fact, since Trump's been elected, I used to think a mattress was just furniture until I got my GhostBed.

这是一种完全不同的体验。

It's a whole different experience.

我醒来时心想，原来这就是优质睡眠的感觉，因为GhostBed做的床垫根本不是普通家具。

I woke up and thought to myself, so this is what good sleep feels like, because GhostBed doesn't build mattresses like furniture.

他们打造的是工程化的睡眠系统。

They build engineered sleep systems.

他们的床是严肃的健康设备。

Their beds are serious health equipment.

这些床专为缓解与恢复而设计，而非追求外观或花哨。

Beds designed for relief and recovery, not looks or fluff.

你的身体在睡觉时应该在自我修复，而不是为舒适而挣扎。

Your body should be healing while you sleep, not fighting for comfort.

我立刻就感受到了差异。

I noticed the difference right away.

如果你醒来时身体僵硬、辗转反侧、睡觉时过热，甚至睡前还要吃止痛药，希望今晚能好一点。

If you're waking up stiff, tossing and turning, sleeping hot, even reaching for a pain reliever before bed, hoping tonight will be different.

这并不是衰老。

That's not aging.

这可能是你的床垫在发出信号。

That could be your mattress talking.

我还喜欢GhostBed的另一点。

And here's another thing I love about GhostBed.

你可以在家试用101晚。

You get one hundred one nights to try it at home.

如果你感觉不到差异，可以无风险退货。

If you don't feel the difference, you can send it back risk free.

GhostBed正在为我的观众提供本季最低价格，外加额外10%折扣。

GhostBed is offering my audience their lowest prices of the season, plus an extra 10% off.

前往ghostbed.com/peter并使用促销码peter。

Go to ghostbed.com/peter and use promo code peter.

就是ghostbed.com/peter，促销码Peter。

That's ghostbed.com/peter, promo code Peter.

几乎全球每一个股票市场表现都远超道琼斯指数。

Just about every single stock market in the world has done way better than the Dow.

我的意思是，翻倍、三倍。

I mean, double, triple.

我的意思是，根本没法比。

I mean, it's not even close.

自特朗普上任以来，美国一直是全球表现最差的股市之一。

The US has been one of the worst performing stock markets in the world since Trump took office.

所以，如果你用股市来衡量经济有多强劲，当我们拥有全球最冷清的股市时，我们怎么可能拥有全球最火热的经济呢？

So if you're going to measure how hot an economy is by its stock market, how do we have the hottest economy in the world when we have the coldest stock market in the world?

显然，我们不可能。

Clearly, we don't.

但看看今天公布的其他经济数据。

But look at the other economic data that came out today.

情况更糟，因为经济数据远弱于预期，而通胀数据却远强于预期，这完全背道而驰。

Worse that you could get because the the data on the economy was much weaker than expected, and the data on inflation was much stronger, the opposite of what you would want.

所以我们有了GDP数据，这是2025年第四季度的，也就是上个季度。

So we got the GDP numbers, and this is for a q four twenty twenty five, so last quarter.

所有右翼人士都声称，我们拥有一个繁荣的经济，因为我们有如此强劲的GDP增长。

And everybody, all the people on the right are claiming that we've got this great booming economy because we have all this GDP growth.

他们一直在谈论5%的GDP增长率。

They keep talking about 5% GDP growth.

根本没到那个水平。

It ain't even close to that.

没错，去年，准确说是上个季度，我们达到了4.4%。

Now, yes, last year, last quarter rather, we got 4.4%.

如果你还记得，我说过，我不相信这些数据。

And if you remember, I said, I don't believe these numbers.

这只是一个偶然现象。

It's a one off thing.

等等看更多数据出来吧。

Just wait until we get some more data.

市场普遍预期第四季度会放缓至2.8%。

Well, the consensus was for a slowdown in q four to two point eight percent.

我们实际得到的是1.4%。

We got 1.4.

1.4。

1.4.

就这么多。

That's it.

这只有预期的一半。

That is half of what was expected.

但想想这个放缓幅度。

But think about the slowdown.

一个季度内整整下降了三个百分点。

Three full percentage points quarter over quarter.

经济在一个季度内从4.4%的增长率跌至1.4%。

The economy went from 4.4% growth rate to 1.4 in one quarter.

所以如果经济之前很热，现在正以极快的速度降温。

So if the economy was hot, it's cooling off super fast right now.

唯一符合预期的是个人消费，为2.4%，但这完全是受通胀驱动的，我认为。

The only thing that came out as expected was personal consumption at 2.4, which is all, you know, driven by inflation, I think.

但即使是这个数字，也比上个季度的3.5%大幅下降了。

But even that was a big decline from the 3.5 in the prior, quarter.

所以这是疲软的经济数据。

So this is weak economic data.

经济几乎没有任何增长。

The economy is barely growing.

而且，我根本不相信这些数据。

And again, I don't even believe the data anyway.

我认为通胀数据被低估了。

I I think the inflation numbers are being understated.

我认为物价上涨的速度远超GDP平减指数所反映的水平。

I think prices are rising much more than the GDP deflator recognizes.

所以我不认为经济增长了1.4%。

And so I don't think the economy grew by 1.4%.

我认为增长幅度更小。

I think it grew by less.

事实上，经济可能已经萎缩了。

In fact, it may have even contracted.

如果那份报告中的通胀数据是真实的，那么本季度的GDP可能是下降的。

If we had honest inflation numbers in that report, it's possible that GDP fell for the quarter.

现在我们又获得了更多关于通胀的经济数据。

Now we got more economic data on inflation.

个人收入和支出数据基本符合预期。

Personal income and spending numbers came out pretty much in line with expectations.

个人收入月增0.3%，支出月增0.4%。

Personal income up point three on the month and spending up point four.

对吧？

Right?

储蓄率略有下降，但没什么异常。

So savings rate slipped a little bit, but but nothing out of the ordinary.

看看PCE，即个人消费支出指数。

Look at the PCE, the personal consumption expenditure index.

这据说是美联储衡量通胀最偏爱的方式。

This is supposedly the Fed's favorite way to measure inflation.

对吧？

Right?

现在，原本预计十二月的数值会上涨百分之零点三。

Now it was supposed to rise by point three in December.

实际上涨了百分之零点四。

It rose at point four.

不仅涨幅超过了预期，而且增幅是十一月百分之零点二的两倍。

And not only did it rise more than expected, but the increase was double the increase from November point two.

记住，如果你把百分之零点四年化，假设我们每个月都像十二月那样上涨百分之零点四，那就是百分之五的通胀率。

Now remember, if you annualize point four, assuming that we had the PCE going up point four every month like it did in December, that's 5% inflation.

百分之五，而美联储的目标是百分之二，我们现在年化水平却达到了百分之五。

5% the Fed's target is two, and we're, you know, now we're annualizing at five.

我知道这只是一个月份的数据，但也许这个月的意义非同寻常。

Now I know it's just one month, but maybe it's one month that means something.

也许这种情况会再次发生。

Maybe this is gonna be repeated.

美联储正在谈论降息。

The Fed is talking about cutting rates.

我知道本周早些时候公布了FOMC会议纪要。

Now I know we got the minutes of the FOMC minutes earlier in the week.

我上一期播客里没对此发表评论。

I never commented that on my last podcast.

我忘了谈会议纪要，所以现在在这里说明一下。

I did I forgot to talk about the minutes, so I'll address them here.

但在会议纪要中，基本上有三个派别。

But in the minutes, there's basically three camps.

你有真正的鸽派，或者说，他们都是鸽派。

You've got really the doves or I mean, they're all doves.

对吧？

Right?

这只是一个程度问题。

It's just a degree.

但你有支持降息的一派，有想暂时维持利率不变的一派，因为他们也不确定。

But you got the the camp that wants to cut rates, the camp that kinda wants to leave rates where they are for a while because they're not really sure.

然后还有一派认为我们可能需要加息。

And then you have the camp that thinks that maybe we have to raise rates.

他们也不确定。

They're not sure.

他们并没有说我们应该加息，但他们认为我们需要保留未来可能加息的可能性。

They're not saying that we should raise rates, but they're saying that we need to leave open the possibility that we might have to.

对吧？

Right?

另外两派甚至认为不应该讨论加息的可能性。

The other two camps don't even think rate hikes should be discussed as a possibility.

而第三派则认为我们至少应该讨论未来可能加息的可能性。

And then you have a third that think we should at least discuss the possibility that we might have to raise rates.

现实是他们必须提高利率。

The reality is they need to raise rates.

这很明显。

That's obvious.

通胀率太高了，而且他们越迟迟不提高利率，通胀就会越高。

Inflation is much too high, and it's gonna go higher and higher the longer they refrain from raising rates.

事实上，单独谈论降息本身就是在助长这一趋势。

And in fact, talking about rate cuts, on its own is fueling this fire.

所以如果你看年同比的PCE数据，它上涨了2.9。

So if you look at the PCE on a year over year basis, it rose 2.9.

所以不是5%，而是2.9。

So not 5%, but 2.9.

更重要的是，十一月时它还是2.7。

And what's more important is that in November, it was 2.7.

而现在它已经升到了2.9。

And so now it's 2.9.

所以情况正在朝错误的方向发展。

So it's going in the wrong direction.

我们远高于2%，而且还在上升。

We're well above two and going up.

我们不是高于2%然后下降。

We're not above two and coming down.

我们高于2%并且正在上升。

We're above two and going up.

但当你看核心数据时，情况变得更糟，因为美联储更青睐核心数据。

But it gets worse when you look at the core because the fed likes the core better.

他们最偏爱的指标就是核心数据。

That's their their favorite measure is the core.

顺便说一下，不仅整体PCE月度上涨了0.4个百分点，核心PCE也是如此。

And by the way, not only did headline PCE go up point four on the month, so did the core.

核心数据上涨了0.42个百分点。

The core was up point four two.

这又年化到了5%。

That annualizes again 5%.

很大的数字。

Big number.

但核心指标的同比数据现在是3%且仍在上升，因为上个月，也就是十一月，同比增幅为2.8%。

But the year over year core is now 3% and rising because last, month, November, the year over year increase was 2.8.

2.8%虽然已经高于2%，但现在我们离2%更远了。

So 2.8 was still above two, but now we're further above two.

我们现在是3%。

We're at three.

我们已经比2%高出整整一整个百分点。

We're an entire handle above two.

50%。

50%.

美联储怎么还能看着他们最青睐的通胀指标——核心PCE——高出目标50%，却还在讨论降息呢？

How is the Fed gonna look at their favorite inflation indicator, the core PCE, running 50% above their target, and they're talking about cutting rates?

你怎么做得到？

How do you do that?

如果你的目标是这个，嘿，我们的目标是2%。

If that is your goal, hey, we have a target of 2%.

好吧，我们远远高于你们的目标，而且还在继续上升。

Okay, well, we're way above your target and we're heading higher.

你们打算怎么办？

What are you gonna do?

美联储正在失去所有抗击通胀的公信力，因为他们担心经济疲软。尽管特朗普怎么说，我们的经济确实疲软，而且还会变得更糟。

The Fed is losing all of its inflation fighting credibility because they're worried about the weak economy, And we have a weak economy despite what Trump says, and it's gonna get a lot weaker.

问题是，通胀正在削弱经济。

And the problem is inflation is going to weaken the economy.

这是滞胀。

It's stagflation.

这就是我们面临的状况。

That's what we've got.

美联储拖延加息的时间越长，我们就将面临越多的通胀，这意味着经济将变得更加疲软。

And the longer the Fed drags its feet on hiking rates, the more inflation we're gonna get, which means the weaker the economy is going to get.

事实上，今天我们又获得了一些经济数据。

And in fact, we got some, you know, more economic data today.

我们得到了综合PMI指数，结果弱于预期。

We got the PMI, composite index, which came out weaker than expected.

虽然仍高于50，但趋势正朝着错误的方向发展。

Is still above 50, but it's heading in in in the wrong direction.

制造业为51.2。

Manufacturing at 51.2.

上个月是52.4，服务业也从52.7下滑至52.3，还有二月份的消费者信心指数。

It was 52.4, the prior month, and the services weakened too from 52.7 to 52.3 and consumer confidence for February.

也略微下降了。

That also inched lower.

上个月是57.3，现在是56.6。

It was at 57.3 last month, and now it's at 56.6.

所以消费者变得稍微更担心了。

So consumers getting a little bit more worried.

当然，他们需要担心得多得多。

Of course, they need to be a lot more worried.

他们根本不知道事情即将变得有多糟。

They have no idea how bad things are about to get.

同比通胀预期从3.5%略微下降到3.4%，但他们仍然预期3.4%的通胀率。

The year over year inflation expectations cooled a bit from 3.5 to 3.4, but they're still expecting 3.4% inflation.

你知道，美联储一直说通胀预期稳定在2%。

Now, you know, the Fed keeps saying that inflation expectations are well anchored at 2%.

在哪里？

Where?

谁他妈的预期通胀是2%？

Who the hell expects 2% inflation?

只有美联储。

Just the Fed.

没人了。

Nobody else.

但事实上，我认为消费者比美联储更接近真相，但我认为他还是低估了情况。

But the reality is I think that the consumer is closer to being right than the Fed, but I think he is likely still understating it.

顺便说一下，我注意到黄金和白银的价格还在调整。

By the way, as I'm watching, you know, the gold and silver prices are still adjusting.

黄金现在上涨了110美元。

Gold is now up a $110.

我们已经超过了51。

We're above 51.

我们现在是51.05，白银则上涨了超过6美元。

We're at 51.05, and silver's up over $6 now.

6.09美元。

$6.09.

白银我们现在是84.50美元。

We're at $84.50 on on silver.

我的意思是，现在这些资产当天的涨幅百分比是多少？

I mean, what are these percentage the percentage gains here now on the day?

黄金上涨了百分之二点二五，白银当天上涨了百分之七点八，接近百分之八，但没人谈论这个。

Gold's up two and a two and a quarter percent, and silver's up 7.8%, almost 8% on on the day, and nobody's talking about it.

你知道，我一整天都在看财经新闻，他们正在报道关税消息的反应。

You know, I was watching the financial news again all day as they're covering the reaction to the news on the tariffs.

没人提到贵金属，而那里却出现了大幅波动。

Nobody talked about precious metals, and that's where you had a big move.

是的。

Yeah.

美元略微走弱。

The dollar was a a little weaker.

债券也略微走弱。

Bonds were a little weaker.

股市略微上涨。

Stock market went up a little bit.

你知道什么毫无动静吗？

You know what did nothing?

比特币。

Bitcoin.

对吧？

Right?

比特币还是67700美元。

Bitcoin is still 67,700.

是的。

Yeah.

它当天上涨了约11.3%。

It was up like 11.3% on the day.

没有黄金涨得那么多。

Not as much as gold was up.

它确实上涨了，但你知道，还是差得远。

It was up, but it was, you know, it's still nowhere.

它仍然低于7万美元。

It's still below 70,000.

它仍然低于2021年11月达到的69,000美元高点。

It's still below the 69,000 peak that it hit in November 2021.

对吧？

Right?

而且媒体仍然对这个加密货币泡沫着迷。

And and the media is still fascinated with this crypto bubble.

他们甚至没有意识到泡沫已经破裂，所有气泡即将泄出，他们的观众即将血本无归，但这就是即将发生的事。

They don't even realize that it's popped and all the air is about to come out and all their viewers are about to get wiped out, but that's what's gonna happen.

再说一遍，如果你还在持有比特币，就听我一句劝，这个周末把它卖了吧。

And again, if you're still holding Bitcoin, do yourself a favor and sell it this weekend.

你知道，你很幸运，它还没已经跌到地板价。

You know, you you're lucky that it hasn't already, you know, dropped through the floor.

我不明白为什么它拖了这么久。

I don't know what's taking it so long.

看看图表。

Look at a chart.

放大视野。

Zoom out.

这些加密货币爱好者总是让我放大视野。

All these crypto guys are always telling me to zoom out.

那就放大视野吧。

Well, zoom out.

很难看。

It's ugly.

是的。

Yes.

曾经有过大幅上涨，但现在正在崩盘。

There was a big rise, but it's crashing now.

看看图表上它是什么样子，然后告诉我，它难道不会继续下跌吗？

Look at look look at what it looks like on a chart, and you tell me that that's not gonna keep falling.

看。

Look.

如果比特币突破5万美元——在我看来这概率很高——你就看看这张图。

If Bitcoin breaks 50,000, which seems like a high probability event to me, you look at that chart.

没有什么能阻止它跌到2万美元。

There's nothing that's gonna stop it from going to 20,000.

所以，我的意思是，为什么要在2万美元时写下来呢？

So, I mean, why write it down at 20,000?

我的意思是，如果你非得这么做，你可以在那里买回来。

I mean, if I mean, if you have to, you could buy it back down there.

我不会这么做，但你知道，现在就退出吧。

I wouldn't, but, you know, get out now.

去买一些黄金和白银。

Get into some gold and silver.

我们通过BitPay在Shift Gold让这件事变得很简单。

We make it easy at shift gold with BitPay.

我的意思是，你知道，你可以轻松卖掉你的比特币，去买一些黄金或白银。

I mean, you know, you you you could you you know, you can easily sell your Bitcoin and get some gold or silver.

而且，你知道，我们不会止步于20,000。

And, you know, we're not gonna stop at 20,000.

我的意思是，也许在20,000附近，可能会出现反弹。

I mean, maybe around 20,000, maybe there'll be a bounce.

也许它会再涨回30,000。

Maybe it'll go back up to 30,000.

大家都兴奋起来吧。

Everybody be excited.

哦，我们要上天了。

Oh, we're going to the moon.

然后你还没反应过来，我们又要跌到10,000了。

Then the next thing you know, we're gonna be 10,000.

而且，你知道，每次比特币创出新高，他们都会说同样的话。

And, you know, every time Bitcoin makes a new high, they say the same thing.

对吧？

Right?

嗯，波动性已经是过去的事了。

Well, the the volatility is a thing of the past.

你再也不用担心大幅下跌了。

You don't have to worry about the big drops anymore.

现在风险已经降低了。

It's been derisked now.

现在买它风险更小了，因为所有机构都入场了，政府也参与了，所以你不用再担心出现百分之五十、六十甚至八十的大跌。

It's it's less risky to buy it now because, you know, all the institutions are in, the government is in, so you don't have to worry about, big fifty, sixty, 80% drops.

那些都是比特币作为新兴资产时的往事了，但现在它已经成熟了。

Those were in the past when it was a new asset, but now it's matured.

它的覆盖面更广了。

It's broadened out.

它的采用率更高了。

It's got more adoption.