金银暴跌：为何此次抛售无关紧要（逢低买入）

大家好。

Hi, everybody.

我是彼得·希夫，为您带来希夫黄金周五黄金市场综述。

This is Peter Schiff for the Schiff Gold Friday gold market wrap.

当然，现在是周日晚上，我正在现场直播周五的市场综述。

Of course, it is Sunday night, and I'm doing the Friday market wrap live.

我甚至在X平台上同步直播。

I'm even simulcasting it on X.

我上周五没能做更新，并不是因为黄金和白银大幅下跌而躲着不敢露面。

The reason I wasn't able to do the, the update on Friday, it's not because I was hiding because of the big decline in gold and silver.

我当时在萨尔瓦多参加Plan B会议和Tether会议，今天下午刚回来，实在不想在酒店房间里做更新，而且在萨尔瓦多还有其他事情要处理，所以我决定改到周日晚上做。

I was in El Salvador for the Plan B conference, Tethers conference, and so I just got back earlier this afternoon and I didn't really feel like doing the update from my hotel room and I had other things that I was doing down in El Salvador, so I decided to do it on Sunday night.

你知道吗？我周四上午搭飞机前往萨尔瓦多时，白银价格还在120美元以上。

You know, when I got on the plane to fly down to El Salvador late Thursday morning, silver was above 120.

当时白银价格曾涨到121美元以上。

It had traded above 121.

事实上，白银在周四创下了历史最高纪录。

In fact, silver made its all time record high on Thursday.

黄金也是如此。

Same with gold.

它曾高于5550美元，我记不清确切价格了，但当我登机时，由于长达三个半小时的航班没有网络，飞机也没有Starlink，所以我完全处于信息隔绝状态。

It was above $5,550 I can't remember the exact price, but when I landed, because I had no internet for the three and a half hour flight, the jet didn't have any Starlink, so I was kind of blind.

所以当我落地后打开手机，才看到周四黄金和白银发生了什么变化。

So when landed and I went on my phone, I saw what had happened to gold and silver on Thursday.

大约有十分钟的时间，黄金价格暴跌了300美元。

There was about a ten minute period where gold dropped like 300.

我记不清具体跌幅了，但白银的跌幅更大。

I forget exactly how much, but it was a huge drop and an even bigger drop in silver.

因此，黄金和白银当天收盘价都大幅下跌。

So both gold and silver closed way down on the day.

我记不清白银具体收盘在什么位置。

I forget where silver closed.

当时仍然在100以上，我认为，但只是勉强高于。

It was still, I believe it was above 100, but barely.

黄金收于5,100美元以上，但仍比高点低了大约500美元。

Gold closed above 5,100, but still about, what, dollars 500 off of its high.

到了接下来的星期五，情况更糟，黄金和白银再次暴跌，黄金收盘低于5,000美元。

And then the following day, on Friday, it was even worse, and gold and silver got killed again, Gold closing below 5,000.

我认为它收盘在大约4,900美元。

It closed at about $404,900, I think.

大约4,900美元。

$4,900, approximately.

所以，是的，黄金一定是收盘了，抱歉。

So, yeah, gold must have closed excuse me.

它一定是收盘在5,100美元以上。

It must have closed well above 5,100.

可能是50.52或53美元。

Must have been $50.52 or 53.

我忘了。

I forget.

但价格更低了。

But and it was lower.

白天的时候价格更低。

It was lower during the day.

收盘时没有跌到最低点，但已经很接近了。

It didn't close on the low, but it closed pretty close.

白银一度跌至80美元以下。

Silver got all the way down to below 80.

事实上，就在直播前一个小时，白银还下跌了近8美元。

In fact, about an hour before I just went live, silver was down almost $8.

当时交易价格约为每盎司77美元，比周四创下的历史高点低了约36%。

It was trading at around $77 an ounce, so about 36% below the record high that it hit on Thursday.

现在我直播录制时，白银实际上已经反弹，上涨了1.5美元。

Now as I am recording this live, silver has actually bounced back, and it's now up a buck and a half.

所以现在又回到了大约86.5美元。

So it's back at around 86 and a half dollars.

而黄金，早些时候几乎下跌了200美元，我记得看到它跌了大约1.70到1.80美元，现在则下跌了57美元。

And gold, which was almost down $200 earlier, I think I saw it down about $1.70, $1.80, is now down about 57.

事实上，五分钟前它只下跌了20美元。

And in fact, five minutes ago, it was only down 20.

所以这是一个非常波动的交易时段，但这是在黄金和白银价格经历前所未有的暴跌之后发生的。

So it's it's a very volatile session, but it follows an unprecedented collapse in gold and silver prices.

这种在短期内以美元计价的账面损失规模是前所未有的。

Unprecedented in the dollar value that's wiped out on paper during the decline, and the magnitude in such a short period of time.

是的。

Yes.

你知道，白银下跌了36%，但从未这么快过。

You know, silver has dropped 36%, just not this quickly.

黄金也是如此。

Same thing with gold.

对吧？

Right?

黄金下跌了大约15%，但绝不是在两天内就跌了这么多。

Gold gold has fallen, by, you know, 15%, but just not in two days.

对吧？

Right?

这确实是一次前所未有的大幅下跌。

This this is really an unprecedented move down.

那么问题来了，为什么会发生这种情况？

Now the question is, why did this happen?

而且，这改变了什么吗？

And and and does it change anything?

对吧？

Right?

因为这次大幅下跌，我现在就看空黄金或白银了吗？

Am I now bearish on gold or silver because of this this big drop?

首先要注意的是，我们刚刚经历了黄金和白银的暴跌。

Now the first thing to keep in mind is we just had this crash in gold and silver.

对吧？

Right?

但目前白银价格仍在每盎司86美元以上。

But silver is right now over $86 an ounce.

几周前，这个价格会创下历史新高。

A couple of weeks ago, that would have been an all time record high.

所以，是的，我们确实经历了一次惊人的下跌，但这只是让白银回到了几周前的水平。

So, yes, we've had this spectacular decline, but all it did is bring silver back to where it was a couple of weeks ago.

对吧？

Right?

它抹去了此前那波大幅上涨，但我认为这并没有对牛市造成真正的损害。

It erased this, you know, major, move up, but I don't think it's done any real damage to the bull market.

它可能对一些高杠杆、近期入场的投机者造成了影响，他们现在被止损出局，亏了钱。

It may have done some damage to some speculators who were highly leveraged and maybe got in recently and now got, you know, you know, stopped out and and lost money.

黄金也是同样的情况。

Same thing with gold.

黄金仍然接近5000美元。

Gold is still close to 5,000.

现在是4800美元。

It's 4,800.

你知道，他们上周播出了塔克·卡森或塔克播出的我们采访的第一部分。

You know, they ran my Tucker Carlson or Tucker ran the the first part of our interview last week.

当他们播出或在X平台上发布时，黄金价格还在5000美元以上。

And when they aired it or, you know, put it on twi on X, gold was above 5,000.

当时接近高点，大约在5200到5300美元之间。

It was close to its high with maybe 5,200, 5,300.

但我录制时，金价刚刚触及4000美元，那是几周前的事了。

But when I recorded it, it had just hit 4,000, you know, like, weeks earlier.

所以我们仍然高出不少，高出20%以上。

So we're still considerably above, 20% above.

事实上，尽管黄金在周五——也就是本月的最后一天——下跌了500美元，但我认为一月仍然是有史以来表现最好的一个月，即使每盎司亏损了500美元，而这500美元甚至超过了我刚入手黄金时的整个价格。

In fact, even though gold was down $500 on Friday, which was the last day of the month, I think January was still the best month ever despite losing $500 an ounce, and $500 an ounce is more than gold was worth when I first started buying it.

白银也是同样的情况。

Same thing with silver.

白银一天之内就下跌了每盎司30美元。

Silver just lost $30 an ounce in a day.

就在一年多前，我还在以每盎司30美元的价格买入白银，而它在一天内就跌掉了不久前的全部价格。

It was just a year or so ago I was buying silver for $30 an ounce, and it lost in one day the equivalent of what its entire price was, you know, not too long ago.

对吧？

Right?

所以这是一次巨大的下跌。

So it was a huge, huge move down.

但从长远来看，几年后，根本没人会在意这一点。

But in the scheme of things and years from now, nobody's even gonna notice this.

它在图表上只会是一个小小的波动。

It's just gonna be a small blip on on the chart.

所以问题是，这有什么不同吗？

So the the question is, does this change anything?

没有。

No.

事实上，人们应该趁这个回调买入。

In fact, people should be buying this dip.

这是个绝佳的机会。

This is a great opportunity.

我个人在周五账面上亏损的钱，比这辈子任何一天都多。

I lost more money on paper personally on Friday than I've ever lost on any day of my life.

我的意思是，根本没法比。

I mean, it's not even close.

我一点都不为亏了这么多钱而烦恼，因为几周前，我根本还没有这笔钱。

It didn't even bother me that I that I lost all that money because a couple of weeks earlier, I didn't even have that money.

对吧？

Right?

来得容易，去得也快。

Easy come, easy go.

但就我而言，我并没有损失什么，因为我一周前对价格将大幅上涨的信心，现在依然丝毫不减。

But as far as I'm concerned, I haven't lost anything because I'm just as confident as I was a week ago that prices are going much higher.

所以，那些我根本无意出售的资产下跌了，我一点也不在意。

And so it doesn't bother me that assets that I had no intention of selling went down.

事实上，我对此感到高兴，因为还有很多人在观望，我正努力说服他们买入黄金和白银。

In fact, I'm happy about it because there are still a lot of people that I am trying to get to buy gold and silver.

所以这是一个机会。

And so this is an opportunity.

我宁愿我的追随者、我的观众在86美元时买入白银，而不是在120美元时。

I would much rather my followers, my audience, buy silver at 86 than a 120.

所以价格下跌真是太好了。

And so the fact that it's come down is great.

事实上，我对白银反弹得这么快有点失望。

In fact, I'm a little upset that silver bounced so quickly.

我本希望在我做这次更新时，价格还在80美元以下，因为我想鼓励大家去Schiff Gold购买。

I was hoping it was still below 80 when I when I did this, you know, update because I wanted to encourage people to go to Schiff Gold and buy.

我现在仍然会买，但说实话，如果价格还能再便宜每盎司89美元，我会更开心。

Now I still would buy, but, yeah, I would have liked it if, you know, it was still $89 an ounce cheaper.

那会更好。

That would have been great.

事实上，我查了Schiff Gold网站，核对了我们的价格，我们是所有知名黄金和白银公司中价格最低的，白银每盎司至少便宜三四美元。

And in fact, I checked on the Shift Gold website, and I checked our prices, and we've got the best prices of any of the reputable known gold and silver companies by at least 3 or $4 an ounce on silver.

事实上，现在如果你去Schiff Gold网站，单买一枚一盎司的银水牛币，价格是93.90美元。

In fact, right now, if you go at at to Schiff Gold, the one ounce silver buffalos, if you're only buying one, are $93.90.

一小时前，我们还是88美元。

Now an hour ago, we were at 88.

对吧？

Right?

价格就是这么波动的。

That's how they've moved.

这比现货价格高出约10%，比平时要高。

It's about 10% above the spot price, which is higher than it normally is.

但如果你去最大的黄金和白银在线零售商那里看看，你会发现他们的价格每盎司至少高出三四美元。

But if you go to the largest online retailers of gold and silver, you'll see they're 3 or $4 higher per ounce minimum.

这在白银购买上可是相当大的节省。

And that's that's, you know, a big a big savings when it comes to silver.

黄金也是如此。

And the same thing with gold.

你知道，现在我们正在以每盎司正好5000美元的价格出售一盎司枫叶金币，而黄金的现货价大约是每盎司4830美元。

You know, gold right now, we're selling one ounce maple leafs right about exactly $5,000, an ounce, and gold's around $48.30.

所以这个价差比我们平时的要高，但你很难找到别人卖得更便宜的。

So that's a higher spread than we would normally have, but good luck trying to find somebody else selling it cheaper.

但关键是，这比周四时低了10%。

But the point is that's 10% lower than it was Thursday.

所以我觉得这是个绝佳的机会。

So I think it's a great opportunity.

黄金和白银的价格还可能继续下跌吗？

Is it possible that gold goes lower and silver goes lower?

当然可能。

Of course.

当然有可能，但谁在乎呢？

Of course, it's possible, but who cares?

关键是尽可能多地囤积黄金和白银。

The point is to accumulate as much gold and silver as you can.

更好的买入机会其实是在矿业股票上。

And the even better buying opportunities are in the mining stocks.

它们被严重打压了。

They got decimated.

我周五账面上亏了这么多，其中一个原因就是我持有大量黄金和白银矿业股票。

That's one of the reasons I lost so much on paper on on Friday is because I have so much gold and silver mining stocks.

所以我也会鼓励大家在周一买入这些股票。

So I would also encourage people to be buying these stocks on Monday.

别担心它们还会再跌。

Don't worry if they go any lower.

看看我的黄金基金，欧洲太平洋黄金基金，EPG IX。

And look at my gold fund, the Euro Pacific Gold Fund, EPG IX.

不过，不管怎样，让我来讲讲我认为发生了什么。

But, anyway, let me get into, you know, what I think happened.

当然，我没有任何证据。

And of course, I don't have any proof.

对吧？

Right?

我只是试图理解一些看似毫无道理的事情，除非你从我所处的这个‘牢笼’视角来看。

I am just trying to make sense out of something that really doesn't make any sense unless you view it from the prison that I'm looking at.

黄金和白银的价格此前已创下纪录涨幅，美元指数则跌至四年低点，美元对瑞士法郎也创下历史最低纪录，而债券市场也开始反转。

So gold and silver prices had been moving up by record amounts, And the dollar had just fallen to a four year low, the dollar index, and this dollar had fallen to an all time record low against the Swiss franc, and the bond market was starting to roll over.

我认为斯科特·贝森特和其他一些接近总统的人向总统反映，我们这里出了问题。

I think that Scott Bessent and some other people close to the president talked to the president and said, we got a problem here.

对吧？

Right?

也许杰罗姆·鲍威尔认为黄金市场的变动无关紧要，但其实并非如此。

Maybe Jerome Powell thinks what's happening in gold is irrelevant, but it's not.

这非常相关。

It is very relevant.

我认为，黄金和白银价格持续上涨存在真正的风险，这种上涨可能会以更具破坏性的方式波及外汇市场和债券市场。

And I think there was a real danger of the gold price and the silver price continuing to rise, but have that spillover in a more damaging way in the foreign exchange market and in the bond market.

所以我认为，特朗普政府意识到他们必须采取行动来阻止这种情况。

So I think the Trump administration realized that they needed to do something to stop this.

对吧？

Right?

他们必须想办法让这列火车脱轨，放慢速度，做点什么，争取一些时间。

They had to figure out a way to kind of derail this train, slow it down, do anything, buy some time.

所以我认为，他们与一些空头进行了协调，比如大型银行，在周四针对白银进行打压。

And and so what I think they did is they coordinated with some short sellers, you know, whether it's big banks about, you know, going after silver on the Thursday.

因为如果你看看发生了什么，对，黄金和白银价格在短短几分钟内大幅下跌，是因为一个巨大的卖单突然在期货市场上以市价成交。

Because if you look at what happened, right, the huge drop in the price of gold and silver in just a few minutes is the result of a huge sell order hitting the futures market, like, randomly, like, at the market.

如果你手上有大量白银或黄金想卖，你是会一下子全砸到市场上，还是会慢慢出货，尽量不干扰价格，或者把价格影响降到最低，以便获得尽可能高的售价呢？

Now if you had a lot of silver or gold that you wanted to sell, would you just dump it on the market all at once, or would you try to slowly get out without impacting the price or impacting it as little as possible so that you could get the highest possible price for the gold and silver that you're selling.

这才是合理的做法。

That's what would make sense.

但如果你直接把巨额卖单砸向市场，把价格打压下去，结果你卖黄金和白银的价格远低于你如果低调逐步出货时本可以拿到的价格，那就很明显，你真正目的不是为了卖个好价钱，而是为了压低你所售资产的价格。

But if you just dump a huge order on the market, knocking the price down, meaning that you end up selling your gold and silver at a much lower price than you might've got had you been more quiet about gradually selling, it's clear that the real intent of the sale was not to get a good price on what you're selling, but to drive the price of what you're selling lower.

所以这是一次试图打压市场的行动，而且成功了。

So it was an attempt to move the market down, and it worked.

对吧？

Right?

市场确实大幅下跌了。

The market went down a lot.

但随后政府的行动是，特朗普在周五早上提前现身了，比原计划要早，因为原计划本该是下周或这周才进行。

But then what the government did is Donald Trump ended up on Friday morning sooner than was anticipated because it was supposed to happen next week or this week.

他宣布提名凯文·沃尔什担任新的美联储主席。

He announced his pick, Kevin Walsh, to be the new Fed chair.

当这一提名公布时，似乎有一场有组织的公关活动，声称这是一个意外人选，尽管实际上他一直以来都是热门候选人。

Now when that pick was announced, there seemed to be a coordinated, you know, PR campaign around that pick that it was a surprise pick even though, you know, he had been a front runner, you know, all along.

他并不是最热门的人选，但他一直是个不错的选择，有30%到40%的胜算。

He wasn't the front runner, but he was, you know, you know, a pretty good bet, like 30%, 40%.

我的意思是，从一开始他就被看好。

I mean, you know, he you know, from the beginning.

所以他并不是一个极端的异类。

So it's not like he's a major outlier.

他一直是潜在人选之一，是美联储主席的前三名候选人之一。

He's somebody that was out there as, you know, one of the guys, you know, one of the top three candidates for Fed chair.

因此，这并不是一个完全出人意料的决定。

So it's not like this, you know, is a complete shock.

对吧？

Right?

但他们试图营造一种印象，仿佛提名凯文·沃什意味着特朗普做了一件出人意料的事。

But they try to spin it as if nominating Kevin Warsh means that Trump has now done something that was unexpected.

而这是因为现在他们把沃什塑造成一个严重的通胀鹰派，他不喜欢量化宽松，也不喜欢低利率，声称在他之前担任FOMC成员时（大约2008年左右），他是少数主张加息并批评量化宽松的成员之一。

And that's because they're now positioning Warsh as this major inflation hawk who doesn't like quantitative easing and who, you know, doesn't like low interest rates, saying he's one of the few FOMC members when he was there before, you know, around 2008 timeframe, who was arguing for higher rates and was a critic of quantitative easing.

因此，所有这些媒体报道——我认为政府背后推动了这种叙事，华尔街也跟进炒作——都说沃什将是一个鹰派人物，不会成为特朗普的傀儡。

And so all of their media reports, and I think the administration was behind this narrative, and Wall Street ran with it, that, you know, this is gonna be you know, Walsh is gonna be a a a hawk, and, you know, he's not gonna be a Trump puppet.

他不会是特朗普操控的提线木偶，特朗普不会操控他，他会比鲍威尔更鹰派，可能比鲍威尔更不愿意降息，甚至可能开始主张加息。

He's not you know, Trump's not gonna, you know, be pulling the strings, and that he's gonna be more hawkish than Powell, that he's probably less likely to cut interest rates than Powell, and maybe even he's gonna start advocating for rate hikes.

他也许还想重回量化紧缩政策。

And he's maybe he's gonna wanna go back to quantitative tightening.

对吧？

Right?

他们就是这么包装的。

This is how they're spinning it.

对吧？

Right?

那么他就是一个真正独立的人，硬通货派，奥地利学派经济学家，简直就像他们提名了我一样。

Then he's a real independent guy, hard money guy, Austrian economist, you know, almost like they they they nominated me.

对吧？

Right?

彼得·希夫。

Peter Schiff.

或者，他们虽然没提我的名字，但会说，嗯，也许像朱迪·谢尔顿那样的人选，或者像这种非常规的提名，但这个人是个硬通货派，真的想对抗通胀。

Or, you know, they're not using my name, but, you know, they say, well, maybe it's like Judy Shelton or, you know, like like like it's an unconventional pick, but this guy, you know, is gonna shake up the fed in that he's a hard money guy, who really wants to fight inflation.

对吧？

Right?

他们就是这么说的。

This is what they're saying.

对吧？

Right?

这助长了黄金和白银的抛售。

And so that helped fuel the selloff in gold and silver.

我认为周四开始抛售的那个人，掌握了内部信息，知道这件事很可能会发生。

And I think whoever it was that started the selling on Thursday had the inside information that that was probably gonna happen.

这整个计划就是先在周四打压黄金和白银，然后来个一击制胜。

And it was all part of the plan to first hit gold and silver on Thursday, and then, you know, that like a one two punch.

你知道，先制造一天的技术性反转，再抛出这个所谓的意外重磅消息，说：嘿，你们之前担心的一切。

You know, get the technicals like a reversal of one day, and then come out with this supposed surprise game changer to say, hey, everything you were worried about.

对吧？

Right?

人们担心美联储会失去独立性。

People were worried about a loss of Fed independence.

他们担心美联储会大幅降息并实施量化宽松。

They were worried about, you know, a Fed that's gonna be slashing rates and doing QE.

而他们一招就化解了这个炸弹，说：瞧，怎么样？

And in one, you know, swoop, they diffuse that bomb and say, oh, look.

特朗普做了一件完全出人意料的事。

Trump did something completely unexpected.

所以所有因为预期宽松货币、降息、大量印钞和通胀而买入黄金和白银的人，你们都错了，因为你们看特朗普选了谁当美联储主席。

So all the people who are buying gold and silver because they expected easy money, right, rate cuts, lots of money printing, inflation, you're all wrong because look who Trump picked to be the Fed chairman.

他选了凯文·沃尔什。

He picked Kevin Walsh.

对吧？

Right?

他是个超级鹰派。

He's he's an ultra hawk.

他就像保罗·沃尔克那样。

He's like it's like, you know, Paul Volcker.

对吧？

Right?

媒体上现在流传的就是这种说法。

This is what is out there in the media.

但我认为这全是胡说八道。

And I think it's all a bunch of BS.

我不认为特朗普会任命凯文·沃尔什，如果他以为凯文会那样做的话。

I don't think that Trump would have appointed Kevin Walsh if he thought that's what he was going to do.

特朗普在其整个总统任期内都在批评鲍威尔太晚行动。

Trump has spent his entire presidency criticizing too late Powell.

为什么特朗普要批评鲍威尔？

Why is Trump criticizing Powell?

因为他认为我们应该进行比已实施的更大的降息。

Because he thinks we should have bigger rate cuts than the ones that we've already had.

他想赶走鲍威尔，因为鲍威尔降息不够多。

He wants to get rid of Powell because he hasn't cut rates enough.

他告诉所有人，他想任命一位会降息的人担任美联储主席。

And he told everybody that he wants to put somebody at the Fed who's gonna cut rates.

现在黄金和白银市场相信了这一点，这就是为什么黄金和白银创下历史新高。

Now the gold and silver market believed that, which is why gold and silver hit record highs.

但我们现在却被要求相信情况并非如此，认为特朗普改变了主意，不再想要一位会降息的美联储主席。

But now we're expected to believe that that's not the case, that Trump has had a change of heart, that he no longer wants a Fed chairman who is going to cut rates.

他想要一个会加息的人。

He wants one who's going to raise rates.

而你知道，鲍威尔并没有加息，所以我们把他换掉，找一个会提高利率的人来接替。

And, you know, Powell is not raising rates, so let's get rid of him and put somebody in there who's going to hike interest rates.

这根本不可能是真的。

There is no way that that is the case.

也许他们真正想做的是制造一种假象，即他们任命了一位坚定的货币紧缩型通胀鹰派人士进入美联储，这样当此人最终降息时，人们就会想：嗯，看来降息确实是合理的，否则这位通胀鹰派人士沃什怎么会降息呢？

Now maybe what they're trying to do is create the false impression that they put a hard money inflation hawk at the Fed so that when he does cut rates, people will think, well, I guess, you know, rate cuts are appropriate because otherwise, Warsh, you know, this this inflation hawk, right, wouldn't have cut rates.

对吧？

Right?

也许这是为了提供掩护，因为我相信凯文·沃尔什是奉命行事，他会完全按照唐纳德·特朗普的意愿去做，因为如果不是这样，他根本不会被选中担任这个职位。

Maybe it's to provide cover because I believe that Kevin Walsh has his marching orders, and he is going to do exactly what Donald Trump wants him to do because if that wasn't the case, he would not have been picked for the job.

所以别再相信他们对外宣传的那些关于他独立、他是鹰派的说法了。

So forget about what they're portraying to the public about how he's independent and how he's a hawk.

如果真是那样，早就该有别人得到这个职位了。

If that were the case, somebody else would have got the job.

但我觉得他们想把他塑造成这样是有道理的，因为之前他在贵金属市场上的立场明显出了问题。

But it makes sense to me that they wanna position himself that way because it was clear in the precious metals market that the way he had previously positioned it was a problem.

当他讲真话时，市场相信了他，而我们当时正濒临美元崩溃。

When he was telling the truth, the markets believed him, and we were, you know, on the verge of a dollar collapse.

所以他必须想出一个办法，让市场相信他不会做他实际上打算做的事。

So he had to come up with a way to fool the markets into believing that he wasn't going to do exactly what he is going to do.

我的意思是，你认为特朗普对鲍威尔的所有批评都只是作秀吗？他其实并不希望鲍威尔降息，只是想责备他没有降息，从而在美联储找个替罪羊，万一情况恶化，就可以说是因为鲍威尔没降息。

I mean, you think that all of Trump's criticism of Powell was just an act, that he secretly didn't want Powell to cut rates, but he just wanted to chastise him for not doing it, so he would have a scapegoat in the Fed, you know, to blame things on if, you know, things turn south and say it's because Powell didn't cut rates.

但我觉得我不该过度解读这一点。

But I don't think you know, the I'm not gonna read that much into it.

我认为特朗普对鲍威尔的批评是真诚的。

I think Trump was being honest in his criticism of Powell.

他想要更低的利率。

He wanted lower rates.

毫无疑问他希望利率更低，因为他想给泡沫充气。

There's no question that he wants lower rates because he wants to blow air into the bubble.

问题是，当他向市场表明他想要那样做时，美元相对于黄金和白银出现了崩盘，并即将波及外汇市场，因此他必须采取行动。

The problem was by telling the markets that that's what he wanted, we were getting a crash in the dollar relative to gold and silver that was about to spill over into the foreign exchange markets, and so he had to do something.

他必须阻止这个警报响起。

He had to stop this alarm from sounding.

于是他们想出了一个计划，把沃什塑造成一位独立的抗通胀斗士，并协调在黄金期货市场上进行大规模做空，而这一切正是在这里发生的。

And so they came up with this plan to position Warsh as this independent inflation fighter, and coordinate, this massive short selling in in gold futures, which of course is where everything took place.

对吧？

Right?

这并不发生在实物市场。

This was not in the physical market.

所有卖出这些黄金和白银的人根本并不拥有任何黄金或白银。

The people who sold all this gold and silver don't own any gold and silver.

他们卖出了自己并不拥有、也无法交付的东西。

They sold what they do not own and what they cannot deliver.

我认为，问题就在这里，因为这个市场将会上涨，而且我认为它的涨幅会远超空头们的预期。

And there, I think, is gonna be the problem because this market is going to rise, and I think it's gonna rise a lot faster than the shorts believe.

买黄金和白银的人，那些真正的买家，他们当初在90美元时买入白银，现在价格涨到100、110，他们还在买。

The people who are buying gold and silver, the real buyers who were buying it at 90 they're buying silver at 90 and a 100 and a 110.

价格跌回86，他们不会停止购买。

They're not gonna stop buying because it's back down to 86.

他们会买得更多。

They're gonna buy more.

那些当初在5500美元时买入黄金的真正实物买家，不会因为价格跌到4800就停止购买。

The real physical buyers who were buying gold at 5,500 are not gonna stop buying it because it's 4,800.

他们会买得更多。

They're going to buy more.

对吧？

Right?

别管投机者和期货交易员在做什么。

Forget about what the speculators and the futures traders are doing.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，那些只是想通过价格波动投机赚钱的人。

I mean, people that just, you know, trying to gamble and make money off of the price fluctuations.

是的。

Yeah.

他们可能会改变主意。

They they're they may change.

我觉得刚刚发生的事，很多人亏了钱，下次再买黄金或白银的期货时可能会三思而后行。

I think what just happened, you know, a lot of people got burned and they may think twice before buying futures on gold or silver again.

而且我觉得有些人可能因为市场波动而被吓出了现货市场，这可能是特朗普政府的一个目标，即试图减缓价格上涨。

And I think some people may have been scared out of the spot market, you know, by the volatility, which is probably one of the goals of the Trump administration is to try to slow down the rise.

对吧？

Right?

这就像你想让煤矿工人死掉，却想让金丝雀活着一样。

It's like if you're trying to kill the coal miners, you wanna keep the canary alive.

对吧？

Right?

你不想让金丝雀死掉，那样矿工们就有机会逃出来了。

You don't want the canary to die, and then the miners have a chance to get out.

如果你的计划是让他们死，你就得让金丝雀活着。

If you if your if your plan is for them to, you know, die, you gotta keep that canary alive.

如果它看起来快要死了，你就得想办法，你知道的，我们能做点什么？

And if it and if he looks like he's gonna die, you gotta figure out, you know, you know, what can we do?

我们该怎么帮助这只金丝雀，让它继续唱歌，这样矿工们就不会察觉到矿井里的毒气了，对吧？

How can we help this canary, keep, you know, keep chirping along so the miners don't get wise to the poison gas, right, that that's in the mine.

我听了上周晚些时候特朗普关于房地产市场的一次采访。

And, you know, I was listening to an interview that Trump had last week, late last week, about the housing market.

对吧？

Right?

他们谈论的是住房可负担性危机。

You know, they talk about an affordability crisis in housing.

而显而易见的自由市场解决方案是，当房价高得买不起时，价格就会下跌，因为最终决定房价的，是人们能负担得起多少，对吧？

And the obvious free market solution, when home prices are unaffordable, they go down, because ultimately what determines the price of a home is what people can pay, Right?

你知道的。

You know?

如果你卖了你的房子，总得有人买吧。

If you sell your home, somebody has to buy it.

如果没人买得起，那你就卖不出去，除非把价格降到别人能负担得起的水平。

And if nobody can afford to buy it, then you can't sell your home unless you lower the price to a level where somebody can afford it.

所以，最终，自由市场会通过降价来解决住房负担不起的问题。

So, ultimately, the free market is going to solve the problem of housing unaffordability by lowering prices.

现在，唐纳德·特朗普被问到这个问题，他的回应是，他最重要的优先事项是确保房价不会下跌。

Now Donald Trump was asked about that, and his response was his number one priority is to make sure housing prices don't go down.

然后他说，事实上，我希望房价继续上涨。

And then he said, in fact, I want housing prices to keep going up.

他说这是因为不想让现在拥有房产的人变得比现在更穷，我想这其中包括他自己。

And he said that that is his goal because he doesn't want to make people who own homes less rich than they are right now, which I guess would include himself.

他本人也拥有大量房地产。

He owns a lot of real estate too.

但他谈论的是普通婴儿潮一代，他们拥有房产，而这套房产由于升值成为了他们大部分的财富。

But he was talking about, you know, average baby boomers, who own a home and where that home is the majority of their wealth because of the appreciation.

他的目标是确保房价不会下跌。

And and his goal is to make sure that prices don't decline.

事实上，他希望房价继续上涨。

In fact, he wants them to keep going up.

所以他并不希望房屋变得可负担。

So he doesn't want houses to be affordable.

他希望房屋变得更加昂贵，比现在还要难负担。

He wants them to become even more unaffordable than they are right now.

那么唐纳德·特朗普的解决方案是什么？

But what is Donald Trump's solution then?

那些现在都买不起房子的人，怎么买得起特朗普还想进一步涨价的房子？

How are people going to buy houses that they can't afford now, and Trump wants them to get even more expensive?

他的办法是维持低利率，非常低的利率，这样人们就能以低廉的成本借贷，从而为这些房屋支付过高的价格。

Well, he wants low interest rates, very low interest rates so that people can borrow money cheap so that they can overpay for these homes.

但如果他任命了一位反通胀鹰派人物，后者会开始大幅加息，那他该怎么做到这一点呢？

But how's he gonna do that if he appoints an inflation hawk who's gonna start jacking up rates?

他需要有人降低利率，因为他的目标是吹大这个泡沫。

He needs somebody to lower rates because his goal is to inflate the bubble.

对吧？

Right?

目前房地产是一个泡沫，但特朗普不希望这个泡沫破裂，因为这意味着房主会亏钱。

Right now, housing is a bubble, but Trump doesn't want the bubble to deflate because that means that people that own houses will lose money.

当然，他们必须面对现实。

Of course, they have to.

这些房子的实际价值并没有人们以为的那么高。

The houses are not worth what they think they're worth.

但特朗普希望房主们能继续假装那些根本没人买得起的房子，依然值他们以为的价值。

But Trump wants homeowners to be able to continue to pretend that houses that nobody can afford to buy are worth what they think they're worth.

而实现这一点的唯一方式就是通过大规模的通货膨胀。

And the only way to do that is through massive inflation.

所以任命一位通胀鹰派完全不符合总统的目标。

So appointing a inflation hawk is completely inconsistent with the president's goal.

对吧？

Right?

通胀鹰派会推高物价。

An inflation hawk is gonna be raising prices.

看看上周公布的生产者价格通胀数据。

Look at the inflation data that came out last week on producer prices.

远高于预期。

Much hotter than expected.

很明显，利率需要上调。

It's clear that rates need to go up.

如果凯文·沃尔什真如宣传的那样，他将是第一个投票支持加息的人。

And if Kevin Walsh was everything that he's being marketed to be, he would be the first vote to hike rates.

但与此同时，美联储董事会中另外两位特朗普任命的成员才是投反对票的人。

But meanwhile, the other two Trump appointees who are on the board, they're the ones that dissented.

就是他们上周投票决定降息，而其他人都投票维持利率不变。

They're the ones who last week voted to cut rates when everybody else voted to leave them where they are.

那么，沃什为什么就会和这些其他人有这么大不同呢？

So why is Worsch gonna be so much different than these other guys?

他不会的。

He's not.

这整个事情就是一个炒作，但别被它迷惑了。

This whole thing is a campaign, but don't buy into it.

别因为恐慌而抛售你的黄金或白银。

Don't get scared out of your gold or your silver.

相反，应该多买一些。

If anything, buy more.

继续买入。

Keep on buying.

利用空头制造的这个机会。

Take advantage of the opportunity that short sellers have presented.

对吧？

Right?

现在黄金下跌了约107美元，至47.82美元，而白银目前仅下跌了91美分。

And right now, gold is down about a $107 at $47.82, and silver is only up about now now silver's down 91¢.

所以白银价格已跌至84美元。

So it's down to $84.

这意味着，Schiff Gold上的价格可能在一分钟内更新，或者已经更新了。

So that means, this the prices on on Schiff Gold are gonna get updated probably in, in a minute or so, if not already.

是的。

Yeah.

银币现在又回落到90美元，金币则在49.46美元。

The silver rounds are now back down to 90, and the gold coins are at 49, 46.

对吧？

Right?

我刚才看的时候，它们还在5000美元。

They were at 5,000 when I I looked at them a bit ago.

我敢肯定它们马上就要下调了，因为系统一直保持在相当实时的水平。

I'm sure they're about to tick down because it keeps it keeps in pretty good to pretty good real time.

但我之前提到过，溢价会上涨，而且已经上涨了，还会继续上涨，因为价格的下跌将推动现实世界对实物金属的需求增加。

But I mentioned before that the premiums are gonna go up, and they've already gone up, but they're gonna keep going up because this decline in price is going to fuel more demand in the real world for the physical metal.

而空头无法交付实物金属。

And the short sellers can't deliver physical metal.

他们只能在纸面上卖出。

They can only sell it on paper.

因此，我认为即使黄金和白银的价格下降，溢价仍会继续上升。

And so I think that the premiums are gonna continue to increase even if the price of gold and silver decreases.

所以你越早拿到实物产品越好，因为即使期货市场价格下跌，实物市场价格仍可能上涨。

So the sooner you can get your hands on physical product, the better because it's possible that even if prices go down in the futures market, they can still go up in the physical market.

如果你的目标是积累实物硬币，那就必须买下来。

And if your goal is to accumulate the physical coins, then you gotta buy them.

金条和硬币，一旦有货就得买。

The bars and coins, you gotta buy them when they're available.

而这些其他公司收取如此高溢价的事实，也表明他们已经快卖断货了。

And the fact that, you know, these some of these other companies are charging such a high premium is also indicative of the fact that they're running out of the product.

但我不知道市场需要多少天才能修复这些损伤，因为它们造成的破坏确实很大，但这些空头仍然存在。

But I you know, I don't know how many days it's gonna take, you know, for this market to repair the damage because they they did a lot of damage, but these shorts, they're still there.

他们还没有平仓。

They haven't covered.

显然，如果他们已经平仓，价格会高得多，但所有卖出白银的人最终都不必买回，因为他们根本交不出实物。

Obviously, if they'd covered, the prices would be a lot higher, but all the people who sold silver, they don't have ultimately have to buy it back because they can't deliver it.

所以他们必须买回这些合约。

So they gotta buy back those contracts.

我们会看到当他们这么做的时候，价格会发生什么变化。

And, you know, we'll see what happens to prices when they do.

我认为，最大的输家并不是那些做多黄金却被扫出局的人，而是那些被套在黄金和白银空头位置的人。

And, you know, ultimately, I think the biggest losers are not the people who were long gold and got flushed out, but I think the people who are gonna be trapped short gold and silver.

因为我觉得很多这些空头，是的，他们现在可能正在庆祝，但我认为这是过早的庆功，真正的买家，我认为会现身，我们拭目以待。

Because I think a lot of these short sellers, yeah, they may be celebrating now, but I think it's premature victory dance because the real buyers, I think and we'll see.

你知道吗，中国市场的交易还没开始，但主要的购买力量一直来自那里，我全程都观察到了，对吧？

You know, the Chinese market hasn't even opened yet, but that's where the main buying has been coming from, and I've been observing that the entire time, right?

亚洲地区有大量的买入行为。

You've got a lot of buying in Asia.

当你进入欧洲或美国交易时段时，就会出现抛售。

You get selling when you come into the European or The US time zone.

所以西方一直在抛售，而东方一直在买入，但显然，买入黄金和白银是正确的选择，看看现在的价格就知道了。

So the West has been selling and the East has been buying, but clearly buying gold and silver had been the right thing to do because look at where the prices are.

即使经历了大幅下跌，即使抛售还会持续一段时间，价格也不会回到这个市场刚开始时的水平。

Even after those big drops, and even if the selling continues for a bit, the prices aren't gonna go anywhere near where this market started.

对于那些持有比特币的人，我仍然认为，尽管比特币也下跌了，但抛掉比特币去买黄金仍然非常合理。

Now, for those of you who are in Bitcoin, I would still Bitcoin is down too, but it still makes a lot of sense to get rid of your Bitcoin and buy gold.

你知道，当黄金上涨时，比特币并没有跟着涨，但当黄金下跌时，比特币却下跌了。

You know, Bitcoin didn't go up when gold was going up, but Bitcoin did go down when gold went down.

所以它不会随黄金上涨，但会随黄金下跌。

So it's not going up with gold, but going down with gold.

你知道，它并没有随着风险资产上涨。

You know, it didn't go up with risk assets.

哦，顺便说一下，如果沃什真的像外界描绘的那样，是一个在贵金属和美元前景上坚决抗击通胀的鹰派人物的话。

Oh, and by the way, if, Warsh really was this inflation fighting hawk that he's being presented to be when it comes to the outlook for precious metals and the dollar.

美元确实上涨了，因为之前美元已经跌到很低水平，而且昨天在推动黄金和白银的同一因素作用下，美元出现了一次不错的反弹。

The dollar did have a rise because the dollar was way on the lows, and it had, you know, a nice rise yesterday on the same story that was driving gold and silver.

所以美元指数，你知道，又回到了97点。

So the dollar index, you know, got back up to 97.

它之前跌到了96点左右。

It was down, you know, 96.

但如果情况真的如此，股市也应该崩盘才对。

But if it really was the case, the stock market would be crashing too.

我的意思是，股市的定价已经预期了降息和宽松货币。

I mean, the stock market is priced for rate rate cuts and easy money.

所以，如果沃什真的是一个完全出人意料、会推行紧缩货币政策的极端人物，股市也该崩盘了。

So if Warsh really was this complete, you know, wildcard, completely unexpected, who was gonna pursue a tight monetary policy, the stock market would be crashing too.

但显然，特朗普并不想让股市崩盘，所以他不会任命一个鹰派人物。

But obviously, you know, Trump's not trying to crash the stock market, which is why he's not gonna appoint a hawk.

他只想打压黄金和白银市场，因为那是让他担忧的市场。

He only wanted to crash the gold and silver market because that was the market that was worrying him.

那是发出警报的信号，可能会对美元、债券，乃至整个美国经济造成问题。

That was the alarm that was sounding that was gonna be problematic for the dollar, for the bonds, you know, for the whole US economy.

所以他必须在炸弹引爆前将其拆除。

So he had to diffuse that bomb before it went off.

但如果你持有比特币，即使你以77000美元左右的价格卖出，你可能会想，这比高点低了40%。

But if you've got Bitcoin, you know, even though you're selling your Bitcoin at 77,000 and change, and you might think, well, you know, that's 40% below the peak.

而白银目前也比高点低了大约30%。

Well, silver is about 30% below the peak.

所以别再持有比特币了，转而买入白银吧。

Buy so get out of your Bitcoin and get into silver.

你现在就可以去shiftgold.com进行操作。

You could do that right now at shiftgold.com.