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在交易场里别交朋友，也别留活口。
Make no friends in the pits, and you take no prisoners.
不留活口。
No prisoners.
一分钟前你还赚了五十万美元的大豆，下一秒，完了。
One minute, you're up half 1,000,000 in soybeans, and the next, boom.
你的孩子上不了大学，他们就会收回你的呼吸机。
Your kids don't go to college, they repossess your ventilator.
你明白我的意思吗？
Are you with me?
革命现在就开始。
The revolution starts now.
现在就开始。
Starts now.
我们必须通过这项法案，这样你们才能知道里面写了什么。
We have to pass the bill so that you can can find out what is in it.
把那些机器重新打开。
Turn those machines back on.
你即将进入彼得·希普秀。
You are about to enter the Peter Shipp show.
去实施霸凌吧。
Go be the bullying.
如果我们在这里失去了自由，就无处可逃了。
If we lose freedom here, there's no place to escape to.
这是地球上最后的抵抗。
This is the last stand on earth.
彼得·希普秀现在开播了。
The Peter Shipp show is on.
我不知道他们是什么时候决定把自私变成一种美德的。
I don't know when they decided that they wanted to make a virtue out of selfishness.
你的钱，你的故事，你的自由。
Your money, your stories, your freedom.
彼得·希普秀。
The Peter Shipp show.
欢迎各位。
Welcome, everybody.
嗯，希望大家都有机会听到了有史以来最长的——至少是我记忆中看过的最长的——国情咨文演讲。
Well, hopefully, everybody got a chance to listen to the longest, I think, State of the Union address ever, at least the longest one I can remember watching.
你知道，我在这里波多黎各看的时候更晚，因为我们比东部时间晚一个小时。
You know, it started even later for me here in Puerto Rico because we're an hour past, East Coast time.
所以总统十点才开始讲话。
So the president started to talk at 10:00.
等他讲完的时候，已经过了午夜。
So it was beyond midnight by the time he wrapped it up.
总之，我对整个事情特别不满，不只是因为它毫无必要地拖得太长。
And, anyway, I was particularly upset about the whole thing, not just because it was unnecessarily long.
我并不反对授予一些 deserving 人士的一些勋章。
And I don't object to some of the, medals that were awarded to some deserving people.
我不清楚什么时候这成了国情咨文的一部分。
Although I don't know when that became part of the state of the union.
我不知道他们是从什么时候开始在国情咨文中颁发这些总统奖的，我甚至不记得以前的国情咨文有过这种颁奖环节。
I don't know when they started, like, I don't know if I even remember a state of the union where they handed out, you know, these presidential awards.
但让我感到不安的是国情咨文中充斥着谎言和夸大其词。
But what bothered me about the state of the union was all the lies, the exaggerations that were were told.
我的意思不只是刻意美化。
I mean, it wasn't just spin.
我的意思是，无论谁执政，总会试图把事情往好的方面说。
I mean, they're always trying to put a good spin on stuff.
对吧？
Right?
不管怎样，你总会出来宣称经济状况良好。
No matter, you know, who you are, you know, you always come out and say that the economy is is is doing good.
国情咨文总是说国家繁荣昌盛，即使事实并非如此。
The state of the union is strong, even when that's not the case.
但这些谎言真的太过分了。
But the lies really are just over the top.
我的意思不是总统说的每句话都是谎言，但我只想聚焦于这些，因为它们实在太多了。
I mean, not that everything that the president said was a lie, but I wanna focus on those because there were were a lot of them.
我最关心的、也是今天播客中要讨论的，是那些与经济直接相关的谎言，因为这确实是我的专业领域。
And the ones that I'm most concerned about and the ones I'm gonna discuss on today's podcast are the ones that relate specifically to the economy because that's really, you know, my area of expertise.
我认为对我的听众、我的客户来说，真正相关的是经济。
What I think is relevant, to the audience, to my my clients is is the economy.
我的意思是，有些谎言根本和经济无关，但我就不一一追究了。
I mean, there were lies that had nothing to do with the economy, but I'm just gonna let those slide.
我也不太想一一讨论它们。
And I just don't really feel like discussing them all.
我一边看演讲一边记了很多笔记，现在就按我记下的顺序来聊聊，也就是总统讲这些话的顺序，因为我是在听的时候随手记下的。
I was writing down a bunch of notes as I was watching the the address, and I'm just gonna kinda discuss what I wrote down, you know, in the order that I jotted it down, which I suppose is the order in which the president spoke these these these these things because I I was writing them, you know, as I was listening.
他一开始谈到的其中一件事就是住房，而且在整场演讲中多次提到了住房。
So one of the first things he started to talk about was housing, and he talked about housing several times, during during his his talk.
但他明确说出的一件事，之前也提过，我之前就指出过这有多荒谬。
But one of the things he he flat out came out and said, and he had mentioned this before, and I pointed out the absurdity of it before.
这并不是一个谎言。
And this is not a lie.
这只是他所倡导的一种极其糟糕的政策的例子。
This is just an example of really bad policy that he's advocating.
特朗普说，他的主要目标是保持房价高位，并确保房价持续上涨。
Trump said his main goal is to keep housing prices high and to make sure they keep going up.
这对想要买房的年轻家庭有什么帮助呢？
Now, how is that helpful to young families who wanna buy a home?
阻止房地产变得更实惠，为什么会被视为总统应该追求的正确目标？
Why is preventing real estate from becoming more affordable, you know, a good objective for the president to have?
现在首次购房者平均年龄已经达到了40岁。
You know, the first time home buyer now is 40 years old.
这是有史以来最年长的，我不知道具体是什么时候。
That's the oldest, and I I don't know when.
但人们必须等到40岁才能买房，是因为买房需要更多的钱。
But the reason people have to wait until they're 40 to buy a home is because it takes a lot more money to afford one.
可能有一些年轻家庭希望在三十出头的时候就拥有自己的房子。
There may be some young families who would like to have a home, you know, in their early thirties.
让这种情况成为可能的最好办法就是房价下降。
The best way to make that possible is for the price to go down.
但唐纳德·特朗普说他不希望这样，而且他明确说明了原因。
But Donald Trump said he doesn't want that, and he specifically said the reason.
他希望拥有房产的人能保持富裕。
He wants the people who own homes to be rich, to stay rich.
他对人们拥有高价房产感到非常兴奋。
He's very excited that people own overpriced homes.
那我怎么知道这些房子价格过高呢？
Now, how do I know the homes are overpriced?
因为它们卖不出去。
Because they're not selling.
目前积压的未售出房屋数量创下了纪录。
There's a record now amount of unsold homes.
房地产交易正在崩溃，因为房价与人们的支付能力之间存在巨大脱节。
Real estate transactions are collapsing because there's a big disconnect between the price and what people can afford to pay.
最终，市场会通过价格下跌来纠正这种脱节。
Now, ultimately, the market will correct that disconnect with a drop in prices.
这是不可避免的。
That that's inevitable.
这是自由市场的解决方案。
That is the free market solution.
当房屋定价过高时，价格会下降，因为房屋的价值取决于买家的支付能力。
When you have overpriced homes, the prices come down because home prices are worth what the buyer can afford to pay.
因为归根结底，如果你必须卖房，你只能根据别人愿意并能够支付的价格来出售。
Because at the end of the day, if you have to sell your house, you can only sell based on what somebody is willing and able to pay.
如果你不想卖房，那你就不用卖。
Now, if you don't wanna sell your house, then you don't have to sell.
但你不能假装你的房子值一百万美元，如果你根本卖不出这个价格。
But you can't just pretend that your house is worth, let's say, a million dollars if you can't sell it for a million dollars.
如果你必须把价格降到六十万美元才能卖出去，那它就只值这个价。
If you'd have to drop the price to 600,000 to sell it, then that's what it's worth.
但唐纳德·特朗普希望人们继续假装房子值一百万美元。
But what Donald Trump wants is for people to keep pretending that it's worth 1,000,000.
他不希望他们直面现实。
He doesn't want them to have to deal with reality.
他希望房主活在幻想中。
He wants homeowners to live in fantasy land.
但你知道，如果他们活在幻想里，也许他认为他们会因此投票给共和党，因为他们觉得自己的房子仍然值那么高的价格。
But, of course, you know, if they're in fantasy land, maybe he thinks they'll vote Republican or something if the if they think that their homes are still worth, you know, those those high prices.
但他想通过压低抵押贷款利率来解决住房可负担性问题。
But he wants to solve the affordability problem by forcing down mortgage rates.
他还吹嘘过自己让房利美和房地美购买抵押贷款的事。
And he bragged about that, about having Fannie and Freddie buy mortgages.
对于所有持有房利美和房地美股票的人，他却没提到一件事，这可是特朗普的操盘策略之一。
Now one thing he didn't mention for all you people who own Fannie and Freddie stock, it's one of the Trump trades.
他根本没提过任何关于房利美和房地美IPO的事。
He didn't mention anything about any kind of Fannie and Freddie IPO.
显然，这并不是总统议程上的内容，因为如果真有这计划，他早就该在国情咨文中提出来了。
Or so that obviously is not something that's on the president's agenda because he would've, you know, laid it out in the in the state of the union.
但他主要关心的是把抵押贷款利率压到最低，这可能意味着他对房利美和房地美什么都不做，因为任何对它们的调整最终都会导致利率上升。
But his main concern is keeping mortgage rates as low as possible, and that probably means not doing anything with Fannie and Freddie, because anything he does with Fannie and Freddie is ultimately going to lead to higher interest rates.
他希望利率更低，因为这样能通过提供廉价信贷，让人们为房屋支付过高的价格。
And he wants lower interest rates because he wants to enable people to overpay for homes by giving them cheap credit.
但这，再次说明，是最糟糕的经济政策。
But that is, again, the worst economic policy.
我们需要更高的利率。
We need higher interest rates.
利率太低了，而房地产价格又太高了。
Interest rates are too low, and real estate prices are too high.
房地产价格过高的原因是因为利率太低。
And the reason that real estate prices are too high is because interest rates were so low.
解决这个问题的方法不是通过进一步压低利率来维持人为的高房价，从而加剧这两个问题。
The solution to this problem is not to try to maintain artificially high home prices by suppressing interest rates even more and exacerbating both problems.
正确的做法是允许房价下跌，这样人们就不需要借那么多钱就能买得起房子。
The solution is to allow, home prices to fall so that people can afford to buy them without borrowing so much money.
这样一来，房贷就没那么重要了。
So the mortgage is not as important.
如果房价大幅下降，你不需要借太多钱，月供仍然可以很低。
If the home price goes way down and you don't have to borrow as much money, you can still have lower monthly payments.
但特朗普希望通过人为压低房贷利率来实现住房可负担性，让人们对这些房子支付过高的价格。
But Trump wants to achieve home affordability by artificially suppressing the mortgage rate to make it easier for people to overpay for these homes.
但这是一种糟糕的经济政策。
But this is horrible economic policy.
你知道，这种经济政策正是导致2008年金融危机的原因，而唐纳德·特朗普却决心推行这种政策，所有共和党人都应该反对这种政策，但当然他们不会反对，因为他们几乎都亦步亦趋地追随特朗普。
You know, it's the type of economic policy that created the two thousand eight financial crisis, Yet this is the policy that Donald Trump is committed to pursuing, and all Republicans should be against this policy, but of course they won't be because they all follow Trump almost in lockstep.
如果你不这么做，就会被骂得狗血淋头。
And then if you don't, you're gonna get, you know, vilified.
你会遭到党内初选的挑战。
You're gonna get primary.
总统会不遗余力地报复任何不听话的人。
The president is gonna do everything he can, to get back at anybody who doesn't fall in line.
你知道，这不仅仅是特朗普在国情咨文里撒谎。
You know, that's why, you know, it's not just Trump that is telling lies in the State of the Union.
而是所有共和党人都在背后支持这些谎言，重复这些谎言，还为这些谎言找借口。
It's all the Republicans that are behind these lies and that repeat these lies and that make excuses for these lies.
根本没有什么借口。
There are no excuses.
我实在受不了政客撒谎，这就是我根本受不了政客的原因，因为他们几乎就只会撒谎。
I I I can't stand it when politicians lie, which is why I just can't stand politicians because that's pretty much all they do.
所以我也不会去从政，因为我讨厌撒谎。
And that's why, you know, I don't really have a career in politics because I don't like to lie.
我不但不喜欢被人欺骗，也不喜欢撒谎。
Not only I don't like to be lied to, and I don't like to lie.
所以每当我听到这些话，我都感到非常困扰。
And so it just really bothers me when I hear this stuff.
不管怎样，他接下来开始谈论的内容，一进入国情咨文就立刻吹嘘起股市，对吧？
Anyway, so the next thing he started talking about, he started bragging about the stock market almost immediately, right, into the state of the union.
他在吹嘘道指达到五万点，可实际上道指早就跌破五万点了。
He's bragging about 50,000 Dow when the Dow isn't even at 50,000 anymore.
事实上，我认为截至昨天，虽然今天市场略有上涨，但标普500指数今年至今仍是负增长。
And in fact, I think as of maybe yesterday, the market was up a bit today, but the S and P 500 was actually negative on the year.
所以我们在头两个月快结束时，几乎已经处于全年下跌的状态。
So we were we were having a down year almost at the end of the first two months.
但目前道指大约在49400点左右，因为今天它上涨了300多点。
But the Dow right now is about 49,400 and change because it was up a little over 300 points today.
但他又再次重复了这些话。
But he's he again, he repeated.
他说我们提前四年实现了道指五万点的目标。
He said that we achieved 50,000 Dow four years ahead of schedule.
首先，有什么样的时间表吗？
First of all, what schedule was there?
从来就没有过关于道指应该在何时达到什么水平的时间表。
There was never a schedule about when the Dow was supposed to go anywhere.
而且，总统的职责本不是让道指上涨。
And, of course, the president's job is not to get the Dow to go up.
我们选举总统并不是为了这个目的。
That that's not why we elect a president.
他并不负责股票市场。
He's he's he's not in charge of the stock market.
股票市场本应反映企业的价值。
The stock market's supposed to reflect the value of companies.
总统并没有什么使命，非要让股市达到某个特定水平。
It's it's not like, you know, the president has some kind of mandate to have the stock market hit a particular level.
但根据特朗普的说法，我们提前四年达到了五万点。
But according to Trump, we got to fifty thousand four years ahead of schedule.
我的意思是，根本就没有什么时间表。
Like, you know, but there was no schedule.
但实际情况是，他上任时，道琼斯指数在44000点。
But the reality is when he took office, the Dow was at 44,000.
他真的以为时间表是让道琼斯指数在四年里上涨6000点。
He really thought that the schedule, the schedule was for the Dow to go up 6,000 points in four years.
那将是道琼斯指数历史上最糟糕的四年期表现。
That'd been like the worst four year period in the history of the Dow.
我的意思是，除了像七十年代那样的大熊市之外。
I mean, other than maybe a major bear market, like in the seventies or something.
我的意思是，那根本不算什么。
I mean, that would be nothing.
那相当于道琼斯指数每年平均增长3%。
That would be like an average of 3% a year on the Dow.
那就是所谓的计划。
That was the schedule.
我的意思是，谁会认为那是计划？
I mean, who thought that that was the schedule?
我的意思是，大家都比这乐观得多。
I mean, everybody was way more optimistic than that.
他一直试图把这份功劳归于自己，声称他让道琼斯指数在一年内涨到50000点，但实际上这仅比他上任时高出约12%。
And he keeps trying to take credit for this miracle that he got the Dow to 50,000 in a year when that's only about 12% higher than it was when when he when he took office.
而这个涨幅远低于拜登第一年任期内道琼斯指数的涨幅。
And that's much less than what the Dow went up during the first year of Biden.
他说拜登是历史上最糟糕的总统，但道琼斯指数在拜登任内的表现却优于特朗普任内。
Mean, I he talks about how Biden was the worst president in the history of the world, yet the Dow did better under Biden than it's doing under Trump.
所以你知道，如果以道琼斯指数为标准，我们现在经济状况比拜登时期更差。
So, you know, if the Dow is the benchmark, we got a worse economy now than we had under Biden.
我不认为拜登时期经济很好，但特朗普时期更糟，你绝对不能仅凭股市表现就声称经济状况良好。
Now I don't think we had a good economy under Biden either, but we don't have one under Trump, and you certainly can't claim we have one based on the stock market.
而且，我之前在一期播客里也提到过这一点。
And, again, I mentioned this in an earlier podcast.
自特朗普当选以来，我们的股市表现是全球最差的。
We've got like the worst performing stock market in the world since Trump was elected.
你知道，我的海外股票基金涨了，我觉得至少涨了10%到12%。
You know, my my foreign stock funds were up, you know, I don't feel better than 1010%, 12%.
黄金基金今年涨了25%左右，但我的海外基金涨幅都是两位数。
Gold fund, you know, up 25% or something this year, but my foreign funds are up double digit.
美国市场基本持平。
The US market is flat.
所以，如果你要以股市来衡量经济，他怎么还说我们拥有全球最火热的经济？
So if you're gonna base the economy on the stock market, how is he saying we got the hottest economy in the world?
他又一次说了这话。
Which he he said again.
他重复了这一点。
He repeated that.
我们拥有世界上最强劲的经济。
We have the hottest economy in the world.
但根据股市来看，我们的情况最差，因为我们确实拥有全球表现最差的股市。
Well, based on the stock market, we've got the coldest, because we've certainly got the coldest stock market in the world.
这些数字很容易就能看出来。
You could easily see that in the numbers.
所以，如果你要根据股市来评估我们的经济——而特朗普正是这么做的——那我们的经济成绩是F。
So if you're gonna, you know, grade our economy based on the stock market, which Trump wants to do, it's an f.
股市表现很差，但特朗普却假装它很好。
Stock market performance is bad, but Trump just pretends it's great.
真相是什么根本无关紧要。
Doesn't even matter what the truth is.
他只是重复这个谎言。
He just, you know, repeats that lie.
他一遍又一遍地大声宣扬，大家似乎都默认它是真的。
He just tells it loud and and over and over again, and and and everybody just seems to accept it as if it's actually true.
总之，我们先插播一个简短的广告。
Anyway, we got a quick commercial break.
马上回来。
We're coming right back.
我还有很多关于工会炒作的内容要谈。
I got a lot more to talk about from the spin of the union.
别走开。
So, don't go away.
如果你的司机明天出了事故，你能证明到底发生了什么吗？
If your driver got in an accident tomorrow, could you prove what actually happened?
如果没有视频证据，就很难了。
Without footage, it's much harder.
于是你的保险费率飙升，只能自己承担费用。
So your insurance rates spike and you're stuck paying for it.
这就是Samsara的用武之地。
That's where Samsara comes in.
它将AI行车记录仪、车辆追踪和资产可视性整合在一个简单的平台上。
It brings AI dashcams, vehicle tracking, and asset visibility together in one simple platform.
通过Samsara保护您的司机、降低成本并实现更智能的运营。
Protect your drivers, cut costs, and operate smarter with Samsara.
Samsara的AI技术将事故率降低了近75%，已获得全球超过20,000家客户的信赖，包括运输、建筑和现场服务领域的多家大型企业。
Samsara AI helps reduce crash rates by nearly 75%, trusted by over 20,000 customers worldwide, including major companies across transportation, construction, and field services.
与独立的行车记录仪或孤立系统不同，Samsara将车辆、资产和作业现场全部连接在一个仪表盘中。
Unlike standalone dashcams or disconnected systems, Samsara connects everything, vehicles, assets, and job sites in one dashboard.
AI行车记录仪实时录制视频，证明司机在事故中无责，从而保护他们免受虚假索赔的困扰。
AI dashcams capture real time video that proves when your drivers aren't at fault, protecting them from false claims.
企业通过更好的可视性和指导，降低了燃油成本并提升了司机留存率。
Companies have reduced fuel costs and improved driver retention with better visibility and coaching.
在车队管理、资产追踪、车队维护等多个领域，Samsara均被G2评为第一名。
Rated number one by G2 for fleet management, asset tracking, fleet maintenance, and more.
这种级别的可视性，正是每位运营经理所需要的。
This is the kind of visibility every operations manager needs.
如果我经营一支车队或现场作业团队，我就会用这个。
If I ran a fleet or field operation, this is what I'd use.
别等到下一次事故发生才采取行动。
Don't wait for the next accident to take action.
前往 samsara.com/gold 申请免费演示，了解 Samsara 如何为您的运营带来可视性与安全性。
Head to samsara.com/gold to request a free demo and see how Samsara brings visibility and safety to your operations.
就是 samsara.com/gold。
That's samsara.com/gold.
Samsara 让运营更智能。
Samsara operates smarter.
好的。
All right.
现在我要逐条分析国情咨文中的各种不实之词。
So I am going over the various lies from the State of the Union address.
再次强调，特朗普声称我们拥有全世界最繁荣的经济。
So again, Trump claimed we have the hottest economy anywhere in the world.
他说在自己上台之前，国家已经死了，彻底死了。
And he said before he took over, the country was dead, dead.
我们有一个糟糕透顶、濒临死亡的国家，而他让它重获生机。
We had this horrible country that was dead, and he brought it back to life.
但这些全是胡说八道。
Now, again, this is all BS.
虽然我不太相信GDP，但很多人还是喜欢用GDP来衡量经济。
Now, not that I'm a big believer in GDP, but I mean, GDP is what a lot of people like to throw around as the economy.
去年，2025年，是特朗普担任总统的第一年。
So last year, 2025, that was the first year that Trump was president.
我的意思是，他并没有全年都在执政，因为他是在一月上任的，不过大概就是1月20日左右。
I mean, he wasn't president for the whole year because he took office in January, but, you know, January 20.
但我们就当是全年来看吧。
But let's just take the whole year.
在特朗普的第一年，也就是2025年，GDP增长了2.4%。
GDP was up 2.4% during Trump's first year, 2025.
好的。
Okay.
这是一个经济复苏的典型案例。
Well, that's an example of a hot economy that has come back to life.
拜登执政期间，那个低迷的经济是什么情况？
What was the cold economy we had under Biden?
在2024年，也就是拜登执政的最后一年，GDP增长了2.8%。
Well, in 2024, Biden's last year, GDP was up 2.8%.
所以，经济在‘死亡’时的增长速度，比特朗普让它复苏后的增长还要快。
So the economy grew faster when it was dead than it did when Trump brought it back to life.
那你该怎么说2024年的经济是低迷的，而现在却是全球最火热的，实际上2024年的增长比2025年更高呢？
So how are you supposed to say that the economy was dead in 2024, and now it's the hottest in the world when it actually grew more in 2024 than it did in 2025.
我不知道2026年会怎样，但我知道2025年的预估GDP增长率是1.4%。
Now I don't know what it's gonna be, in 2026, but I know that the 2025, or the estimate was 1.4% GDP growth.
还是说那是对的。
Or is that yeah.
我的意思是，这些数字正在下降。
I mean, so the numbers are coming down.
经济很疲软。
The economy is weak.
是的。
Yes.
在拜登时期经济就疲软，现在在特朗普时期依然疲软。
It was weak under Biden, but it's still weak under Trump.
这全是幻想，特朗普或许相信这些，也可能根本不信。
This is all a fantasy, that Trump is has somehow believes, or maybe he doesn't believe in.
这不过是撒谎的艺术而已。
It's just, you know, the art of the lie.
我不知道。
I don't know.
我不确定他是否相信自己，或者这只是他一贯的宣传方式。
I don't know whether he believes in himself or, you know, this is just how he's, you know, promoting everything.
他谈完所谓的火热经济后，又开始说，人人都跑来对他说：‘先生，我们赢太多了，先生。’
And then after he talked about that, about how, you know, we got this hot economy, He then started talking about how everybody keeps coming up to him and saying, sir, we're winning so much, sir.
我不知道该怎么应对这么多胜利。
I don't know how to handle all this winning.
求你了，求你了，别再这样了好吗？
Can you please, please stop?
我真的受不了了。
I can't take it anymore.
我们能不能别赢得这么频繁？
Like, we can't we just win a little less often?
我们偶尔也得输一次。
We gotta lose once in a while.
我的意思是，我真的受不了这种持续不断的胜利。
I mean, I can't handle this constant winning.
我们简直一直在赢。
Like, we're winning all the time.
我不知道他到底在说什么。
I don't know what the hell he's talking about.
是的。
Yeah.
我知道我们，你知道的，赢了那场冰球比赛。
I know we, you know, we won the hockey game.
对吧？
Right?
我们赢了那场。
We won that.
我不确定特朗普是不是想把冰球金牌归功于自己，但没错，我们确实赢了几场。
I don't know if Trump's trying to claim credit for the, the the hockey gold medal, but yeah, we won a few things.
真的有人会跑去向唐纳德·特朗普抱怨我们赢太多了吗？说我们现在赢得太频繁，简直荒谬，不公平，总是赢个不停？
But is anybody really coming to Donald Trump complaining about excessive winning that we're just winning so much now that it's just ridiculous, that it's unfair, that we're just winning constantly?
我们到底赢了些什么？
What exactly have we won?
什么都没有，什么都没有。
Nothing, nothing.
特朗普说的这一切根本没发生。
All of this stuff that Trump is talking about is just not happening.
他吹嘘自己的减税政策，说这是我们国家历史上最大的减税。
Now, he bragged about his tax cuts, and he said that we had the largest tax cuts in the history of the country.
这不对。
That's not true.
我的意思是，我们之前有过比那个宏伟法案更大的减税。
I mean, we've had plenty of tax cuts that were bigger than the big beautiful bill.
是的。
Yes.
那确实是一次重大的减税。
It was a significant tax cut.
问题在于，我们在已经存在巨额赤字的情况下还减了税。
That was a problem because we cut taxes when we already had big deficits.
所以我们根本负担不起减税，但还是减了。
So we couldn't afford a tax cut, yet we got one anyway.
所以减税并不是一件好事。
So cutting taxes was not a good thing.
当然，我并不是支持高税收，我不是。
Now, not that I am in favor of high taxes, I'm not.
但我明白，如果我们不削减支出，那么减税就是一种谎言。
But I recognize that if we're not going to cut spending, then a tax cut is a lie.
政府的成本不是由它征收的税收决定的，而是由它的支出决定的。
That the cost of government is not measured by what it collects in tax revenue, but by what it spends.
所以我想要真正的减税，这意味着要削减政府规模，让政府花的钱更少，因为我们必须为政府买单。
So I want real tax cuts, which means you cut government so that government costs less money because we have to pay for government.
无论我们是通过税收、债务还是通货膨胀来支付，我们终究都是在为此买单。
Whether we pay for it through taxation or through debt and inflation, we're still paying for it.
税收实际上是为政府筹资最便宜的方式。
Taxation is actually the cheapest way to pay for government.
特朗普的做法更加昂贵。
Trump's way is even more expensive.
由于这些减税措施，公众为政府支付的费用将比不减税时更多。
The public is gonna pay more for government because of these tax cuts than they would have paid had we not cut taxes.
所以他并没有真正帮到任何人，但人们却以为自己得到了好处。
So he didn't do anybody any favors, but people think they got something.
对吧？
Right?
但事实上，这甚至都不是最大的减税。
But the fact that it's it's not even the biggest tax cut.
他连这一点都不愿坦诚面对。
He can't even be honest about that.
他为什么不直接说，哪些才是最大的减税？
Why doesn't he just say, what are the biggest tax cuts?
那样才是真实的。
That would be true.
我的意思是，我甚至不觉得它排在前五，但可能在前十左右。
I mean, I don't even think it was in the top five, but it's it's probably somewhere in the top 10.
对吧？
Right?
也许是第六、第七、第八名。
Maybe it's the sixth, the seventh, the eighth.
我不知道。
I don't know.
我的意思是，这确实是个不小的减税，但并不是最大的。
I mean, it's definitely a decent sized tax cut, but it's not the biggest.
但对特朗普来说，每件事都必须是最大的。
But, you know, for Trump, everything has to be the biggest.
所以如果不是，我们就干脆撒谎。
And so if it's not, we just lie about it.
对吧？
Right?
就直接说它是最大的。
Just just say it's the biggest.
然后他过去说，你知道的，小费不用缴税，加班费不用缴税，社会保障金也不用缴税，但首先这又是谎言，因为社会保障金仍然要缴税。
And then he went over and said, you know, no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, no tax on Social Security, which first of all is also a lie because there's still taxes on social security.
很多人其实还在为社会保障金缴税，但确实有一部分人享受了社会保障金的减税。
A lot of people are paying taxes on social security, but there was a tax cut for some people on social security.
不过，加班费在一定限额内确实免税，小费在一定限额内也免税。
But yes, it is no tax on overtime with certain limits, and no tax on tips, again, with certain limits.
但这些都没什么好处。
But none of that is good.
这不是好的经济政策。
That is not good economic policy.
这是凯恩斯式的刺激经济。
That is Keynesian pump priming.
这是以增加总需求为目标的减税。
That is demand focused tax cuts that increases aggregate demand.
这并不会增加供给。
It doesn't increase supply.
这些并不是针对供给侧的经济增长减税措施。
These are not supply side targeted economic growth tax cuts.
这些减税措施旨在刺激消费，而如果你试图对抗通胀，这是最糟糕的做法。
These are tax cuts designed to stimulate spending, which is the worst thing that you would do if you're trying to fight inflation.
因为对抗通胀意味着减少支出、降低需求，而不是通过赤字支出来刺激需求。
Because fighting inflation means reducing spending, reducing demand, not goosing it with deficit spending.
所以这是糟糕的经济政策。
So it's bad economic policy.
他还吹嘘说，购买美国制造的汽车时，汽车贷款利息可以抵税。
He also bragged about the tax deductibility of auto loans when you buy a car that's made in America.
但同样，这并不是谎言，这是事实。
Now again, that's not a lie, That's the truth.
但这是一项糟糕的政策，因为它通过允许人们借入比原本更多的钱来购买汽车，从而刺激了汽车需求。
But it's bad policy because it's stimulating demand for cars by allowing people to borrow more money than they otherwise could have borrowed and spend it on cars.
所以这在刺激需求，并加速通货膨胀。
So it's it's stimulating demand, and it's, accelerating inflation.
我们来看看。
Let's see.
他谈到了特朗普账户。
He talked about the Trump accounts.
他声称自己与命名这些账户为特朗普账户毫无关系。
Now he claimed that he had nothing to do with naming them the Trump accounts.
是别人自己决定叫它们特朗普账户的。
Somebody else just decided to call them the Trump accounts.
但同样，这是个糟糕的主意，因为政府的钱从哪里来支付这些特朗普账户？
But, again, a bad idea because where does the government get the money for the Trump accounts?
它必须借钱。
It has to borrow it.
那么，谁来偿还这些贷款呢？
Well, who's gonna pay back the the loans?
嗯，那些 supposedly 能得到这些账户的人。
Well, the very people that are supposedly getting these accounts.
所以我们正在为那些 supposedly 应该设立这些账户的年轻一代增加债务。
So we're running up the debt for the for the young kids that we're supposedly, setting aside these accounts for.
如果我们直接处理债务，他们会过得更好。
They'd be better off if we just went after the debt.
现在，是的，像迈克尔·戴尔这样的私人人士正在向这些特朗普账户投入大量资金，所以我想这并不增加纳税人的负担。
Now, yeah, there are some private people like Michael Dell is putting a bunch of money into these Trump accounts, so I guess that doesn't cost the taxpayer anything.
但政府应该这么做这个想法本身就是错误的。
But the whole idea that the government should do this is is wrong.
而且，这又是来自特朗普政府，共和党在背后支持。
And again, it's coming from the Trump administration, and the Republicans are behind it.
你知道，如果拜登和民主党提出这个计划，共和党会反对的。
You know, if if Biden, the Democrats came up with this plan, the Republicans would oppose it.
对吧？
Right?
他们全都是伪君子。
They're they're all a bunch of hypocrites.
然后特朗普谈到了经济的复苏。
Then Trump talked about the turnaround in the economy.
他重复了自己说过的话。
He repeated himself.
对吧？
Right?
州情咨文之所以那么长，其中一个原因就是总统一直在说同样的话。
That's one of the reasons that the state of the year was so long is because the the the president kept saying the same stuff.
对吧？
Right?
他不断找新的说法来重复他已经说过的内容。
He he kept finding new ways to to repeat what he had already said.
但他称这是历史上最大的经济逆转。
But he said it was the biggest turnaround in history.
所以，我们经历了历史上最大的经济复苏，意思是经济从最糟糕的状态跃升至最繁荣的状态，这简直是史上最大的逆转。
In a so so we we had the biggest economic turnaround in history, meaning going from the worst economy to the greatest economy, and it was like the biggest turnaround ever.
而且他又提到了道琼斯指数提前四年突破五万点。
And again, he fell back on the Dow hitting 50,000, four years ahead of schedule.
但根本不存在什么时间表，而且五万点也仅仅略高于他上任时的水平。
Again, there was no schedule, and 50,000 was barely above where it was when he inherited it.
但既然GDP从2.8%增长到2.4%，这又怎么能算是最大的逆转呢？
But again, how was it the biggest turnaround when 2.8% GDP became two point, 4% GDP?
在他第一年期间，经济增长速度比拜登最后一年还要慢。
The economy grew slower during his first year than it did during Biden's last.
到底什么被逆转了？
What got turned around?
什么都没有。
Nothing.
根本没有任何逆转发生。
Nothing got turned around.
什么都没变好。
Nothing got any better.
这全部又是幻想。
This is all again a fantasy.
这根本算不上转折，即使算得上，也绝对称不上历史上最大的转折，而他却把这转折归功于自己。
It's not even a turnaround, and if it were, it certainly isn't even close to the greatest turnaround in history, and he credits the turnaround.
特朗普说，我们之所以有这一历史性转折——尽管这种转折根本不存在——是因为他的关税，而这些关税后来被最高法院正确地否决了。
The reason we had this historic turnaround, according to Trump, the turnaround that that doesn't exist, but the reason that we had this turnaround was because of his tariffs that were just, you know, struck down correctly by the Supreme Court.
所以他声称，我们取得了这一巨大的转折，尽管它根本没有发生，而原因是他那些实际上有害的关税。
So he's saying, we got this great turnaround that didn't happen because of his tariffs that were actually harmful.
因此，如果没有这些关税，经济本会比现在更好，虽然它本身谈不上有多好。
So the economy would have been better than it was, not that it was great, but it would have been better than it was without the tariffs.
然而，他却声称，正是这些关税带来了这一不存在的历史性经济转折，而我们根本没经历过这样的转折。
Yet he's claiming the tariffs are the reason we had this nonexistent historic economic turnaround, which we did not have.
好了，还有一个广告，敬请继续关注。
Anyway, got one more commercial, so stick around.
我们马上回来。
We're coming right back.
如果你缺少了一半的信息，就无法管理好你的心脏健康。
You can't manage your heart health if you're missing half the info.
常规检查只关注基础指标，却忽略了可能改变一切的关键标志物。
Standard tests check the basics, but they skip over key markers that could change everything.
现在是心脏健康月，我本人最近更多地思考了我的心脏健康，尤其是长寿问题。
It's National Heart Month, and I've personally been thinking more about my heart health, especially longevity.
让我惊讶的是，直到我真正看到我的实验室结果时，才发现自己原来知道得这么少。
What surprised me was how much I didn't know until I actually saw my lab results.
这就是我喜欢Function的原因。
That's what I like about Function.
它能让你看到身体内部真实发生的情况。
It shows you what's actually happening in your body.
Function由世界级医生设计，并受到数十万会员的信任。
Function is designed by world class physicians and trusted by hundreds of thousands of members.
像博士这样的健康领袖。
Health leaders like Doctor.
马克·海曼博士。
Mark Hyman, Doctor.
安德鲁·胡贝尔曼博士
Andrew Huberman, and Doctor.
杰里米·伦敦支持它，因为一旦你了解自己的健康状况，一切都会改变。
Jeremy London support it because once you understand your health, everything changes.
你不再需要猜测，不再被动应对，而是开始根据真实的洞察来做出决策。
You stop guessing, you stop being reactive, and you start making decisions based on real insights.
这就是我正在使用的服务，你也应该试试。
It's what I use, and you should too.
掌控你的健康，从心脏健康开始。
Own your health and start with your heart.
Function每年为你提供超过160项实验室检测，涵盖心脏健康、炎症、压力、激素和毒素等高级指标，年费为365美元。
Function gives you access to over 160 lab tests each year, including advanced markers for heart health, inflammation, stress, hormones, and toxins for $365 a year.
每天只需一美元。
That's a dollar a day.
点击我的链接了解更多并加入。
Learn more and join using my link.
访问 functionhealth.com/peter，使用优惠码 peter25 可获得 25 美元的会员抵扣。
Visit functionhealth.com/peter and use gift code peter25 for a $25 credit towards your membership.
好吧，我要来揭穿那些谎言，以及特朗普在国情咨文演讲中吹嘘的一些糟糕政策。
All right, I'm going over the lies and just some of the bad policies that Trump was bragging about in the, State of the Union address.
你知道吗，我刚发现我漏掉了一个要点。
And, you know, I just noticed I I missed one of my bullet points.
那其实是我列表上的第三个要点。
That was actually the third one on my list.
我刚刚漏掉了，所以我要回去补上这一点。
I just missed it, so I'm gonna go back and hit that one.
那就是通货膨胀。
And that was inflation.
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特朗普声称，他已经结束了从拜登那里继承的创纪录的高通胀。
Trump claimed that he has already ended the record high inflation that he inherited from Biden.
他说，在拜登执政期间，我们经历了我国历史上最严重的通货膨胀。
He said that under Biden, we had the worst inflation in the history of our country.
然而，根据政府的衡量方式，这显然不属实。
Now, the way the government measures it, that's certainly not true.
我们有史以来单年最高的通胀率是9.1%。
The highest rate we got in any one year was 9.1.
但在七十年代，我们曾多次出现两位数的通胀率。
Now we had plenty of years in the double digits, in the seventies.
过去，我们对通胀的衡量方式更真实、更诚实。
Now, we used to measure inflation differently, more honestly.
所以我认为，如果我们当时更准确地衡量通胀，那一年或许确实可能是最严重的通胀。
So I think had we measured inflation accurately, it is possible that we may have had the worst inflation that one year.
但特朗普并没有这样表述。
But Trump didn't phrase it that way.
他只是在谈论消费者价格指数。
He's just talking about the CPI.
所以从现代经济学家的角度来看，这并不是最糟糕的，但他也没有继承到9.1%的通胀率。
And and so it it wasn't the worst as far as modern economists would consider it, but he also didn't inherit 9.1%.
到拜登离任的最后一年，即2024年，消费者价格指数已降至2.9%。
By the time Biden left office during his final year, 2024, the CPI was 2.9.
因此，特朗普实际上从拜登那里继承的是一个自2022年达到峰值后已连续几年下降的消费者价格指数趋势。
So what Trump actually inherited from Biden was a declining CPI that peaked out in 2022 and had been declining for a couple of years.
所以他继承了这个下降趋势。
So he inherited that downtrend.
拜登从他那里继承的则是上升趋势。
What Biden inherited from him was the uptrend.
通胀的大幅飙升始于2020年，并持续到2021年和2022年。
The big spike in inflation began in 2020 and went through 2021 into 2022.
拜登从特朗普那里继承了这一趋势。
Biden inherited that from Trump.
导致我们出现大幅价格上涨的原因，是2020年和2021年的货币和财政刺激政策。
That that that started the the reason we had the big price increases was because of the monetary and fiscal stimulus of 2020 and 2021.
所以拜登继承了一个严重的问题，并且还让它变得更糟，但他确实从特朗普那里继承了一个比特朗普从拜登那里继承的通胀问题更大的通胀难题。
So Biden inherited a big problem and helped make it worse, but he did inherit an inflation problem from Trump that was in fact bigger than the inflation problem that Trump inherited from Biden.
特朗普第一年期间，CPI衡量的通胀率发生了什么变化？
What happened to inflation as measured by the CPI during Trump's first year?
它从2.9下降到了2.7。
It fell to 2.7 from 2.9.
这有什么大不了的。
Big deal.
我的意思是，即使哈里森赢了，通胀率可能也还是2.7。
I mean, it probably would have been 2.7 anyway if if Harrison won.
2025年的情况也不会有多大不同。
Wouldn't have been much different for 2025.
至于2026年，我打赌今年CPI衡量的通胀率会超过3%。
Now 2026, I bet that CPI measured inflation this year will be north of 3%.
三点多，可能四点。
Three something, maybe four.
所以情况会更糟。
So it's going to be worse.
因此，通货膨胀不再呈下降趋势。
So inflation is no longer trending down.
而是在上升。
It's trending up.
那么特朗普是怎么解决通胀问题的呢？
So how did Trump, you know, solve the inflation problem?
显然，他并没有解决。
Obviously, he didn't.
后来他经常提到的是低油价。
Now what he pointed to a lot later was these low gas prices.
你知道，他声称有个加油站油价低至1.85美元。
You know, he claimed that there was a station where it was a dollar 85.
我忘了是哪个州。
I forget what state.
不是。
No.
这不真实。
It's not true.
价格远没有那么低。
It it's nowhere near that price.
他更多提到的是1.99美元。
He talked more about a dollar 99.
是的。
Yes.
汽油价格比他上任时低，但并没有低太多，而且也不会长期保持低位。
Gas prices are lower than they were when he took office, but they're not that much lower, and they're not gonna stay lower.
它们会变得更高。
They're gonna be higher.
我认为到今年年底，汽油价格将高于特朗普上任时的水平。
I think by the end of this year, prices for gas will be higher than they were when Trump took office.
现在我们回到他谈论经济的时候。
Now getting back to when he talked about the economy.
在他谈到这种从历史上最糟糕的经济状况到历史上最繁荣的经济状况的惊人逆转后，他又吹嘘自己有多正确，说22位诺贝尔经济学奖得主都错了，因为没人相信他能如此扭转经济。
After he talked about this record transformation in a turnaround, going from the worst economy in history to the greatest economy in history in a matter of months, He then went on to brag about how he got it right and how 22 Nobel laureates, right, Nobel Prize winners in economics got it wrong because nobody believed that he could turn the economy around the way he did.
你知道吗？
Well, you know what?
也许他们才是对的，因为他根本没扭转任何局面，因为什么都没变。
Maybe they're right because he didn't turn anything around because nothing has changed.
这一切都只存在于总统的想象中。
It's all in the president's mind.
但显然，他认为自己是个经济天才，应该获得诺贝尔经济学奖，因为所有真正的诺贝尔奖得主都错了。
But apparently, he thinks he's this economic genius, and he should have the Nobel Prize in economics because all the actual Nobel Prize winners got it wrong.
而他是唯一正确的。
And he's the only one.
他是唯一一个知道在自己的领导下经济会如此繁荣的人。
He's the only one that knew how great this economy was gonna be under his leadership.
要知道，经济好只存在于他的幻想中。
When, you know, it's it's only great in his dreams.
现实中并不好。
It's not great in in reality.
接着他谈到了最高法院令人遗憾的裁决。
Then he talked about the unfortunate ruling by the supreme court.
对吧？
Right?
那并不遗憾。
It wasn't unfortunate.
那是幸运的，而且是正确的。
It was fortunate, and it was it was correct.
但我想，他还是会像我说的那样，把经济中的任何问题都归咎于最高法院，因为他声称关税非常有效。
But he's, I guess, gonna try to blame, as I said, the Supreme Court for, any problems in the economy because he claimed the tariffs were so great.
因此，一旦这些关税现在被取消，当然，他已经非法实施了更多关税，这些全面的15%关税同样是违宪的。
And so to the extent that the tariffs go away now, of course, he's already illegally imposed some more tariffs, these 15%, across the board tariffs that are also unconstitutional.
问题是，还要多久才会有人对此提出挑战呢？
The problem is how long is it gonna take for somebody else to challenge this, right?
但与此同时，这些关税只是暂时的，而最高法院花了这么长时间才对这些违宪关税作出裁决，这本不应该发生。
But meanwhile, they're only temporary and how it took so long for the Supreme Court to rule on these unconstitutional tariffs, which it should not have done.
法院本应立即作出裁决，因为这太明显了，他们本应在所有公司支付这些非法关税之前几个月就做出裁决。
The court should have given this ruling because it was so obvious, and it, you know, they should have ruled it months and months ago before all these companies paid all these illegal tariffs.
因为现在，我们面临一个问题：如何退还这些钱？人们该如何申请退款？以及各种各样的问题。
Because now, you know, we've got a problem of how do you refund the money, and how are people going to gonna put in for these refunds and all the problems.
你知道，不幸的是，我把手机落在房间的另一边，有人一直给我打电话，我没办法让它停止响铃。
You know, I got unfortunately, I left my phone on the other side of the room, and somebody keeps calling me, so I have no way to to stop it from ringing.
所以希望他们打累了就不打了。
So hopefully, they'll get tired of calling me.
他们已经打了两次了，但我懒得起身走到房间的另一边去。
They've called me twice now, but I don't want to get up and walk to the other side of the room.
但无论如何，他肯定会把最高法院当作一个非常方便的替罪羊。
But anyway, so yeah, he's going to be using the Supreme Court as a very convenient scapegoat.
然后他谈到他谈成的所有那些伟大交易都将保留，尽管最高法院做了这件不幸的事。
Then he talked about all the great deals that he had negotiated are gonna remain in place, even though the Supreme Court did this unfortunate thing.
听好了，根本没有什么伟大的交易。
Look, again, there are no great, great deals.
我的意思是，实际上什么都没发生。
I mean, nothing has really happened.
你知道，贸易赤字基本没变。
You know, the trade deficits are pretty much exactly the same.
我想自从他当上总统以来，赤字也没变得更糟，但也没好转。
I guess they didn't get much worse since he became president, but they didn't get any better either.
还是和以前差不多。
It's about where they were.
而且这还是在所有关税都实施的情况下。
And and that's with all the tariffs.
所以我们没有任何改善。
So we haven't had any improvement.
我们也没有大规模的产业回流。
We haven't had a bunch of reshoring.
我们并没有把制造业带回国内。
We haven't brought manufacturing back.
制造业岗位已经流失。
Manufacturing jobs have been lost.
事实上，去年一整年，我们总共只增加了十几万个就业岗位。
In fact, all of last year, we only gained about a 100 and something thousand jobs for the entire year.
在特朗普的第一年，我们几乎没创造任何就业机会。
We barely created any jobs during Trump's first year.
但他却在吹嘘所谓的招聘热潮。
Yet he's bragging about, you know, this boom in, in, in hiring again.
你根本不可能用关税来取代所得税。
There is no way that you can replace the income tax with tariffs.
这是不可能的。
It's impossible.
但这就是我们不依赖关税的原因，因为你无法通过关税筹集到政府支出所需的那笔钱。
That but that's the reason we don't rely on tariffs because you can't raise the kind of money that the government spends with tariffs.
这就是问题所在。
That's the problem.
一百年前我们能靠关税运转，是因为当时还没有社会保障。
The reason we could run on tariffs a hundred years ago is because we didn't have Social Security.
我们还没有医疗保险。
We didn't have Medicare.
我们还没有医疗补助。
We didn't have Medicaid.
我们还没有《平价医疗法案》。
We didn't have the Affordable Care Act.
我们也没有如此庞大的国防开支。
We didn't have this massive defense.
所以，如果我们想要保留所有这些项目，那就只能接受所得税，因为唯一能负担这些开支的方式就是征收所得税。
So if we're gonna have all this stuff, then we're stuck with the income tax, because the only way you can afford this stuff is if you have an income tax.
所以，如果你不喜欢缴纳所得税，想废除所得税，那就必须接受一个事实：我们必须废除所有这些项目，因为它们是相互关联的。
So if you don't like paying income taxes and you wanna get rid of income taxes, then you gotta accept the fact that we gotta get rid of all those programs because they go together.
没有资金来源，就不可能维持这些项目。
You can't have the programs without a way to pay for them.
如果政府不直接从人们的工资中扣款，就根本不可能获得这些资金。
And if the government wasn't taking money directly out of people's paychecks, there's no way they would get it.
但就我个人而言，是的，我想废除所得税。
Now personally, yeah, I wanna get rid of the income tax.
我也想废除所有那些由所得税资助的、违宪的项目。
I also wanna get all get rid of all those programs, those unconstitutional programs that the income tax is funding.
但他在演讲后期明确表示：我们绝不会削减社会保障，绝不会削减医疗保险，绝不会削减医疗补助。
But later in his speech, Donald Trump specifically said, we'll never cut Social Security, we'll never cut Medicare, we'll never cut Medicaid.
我会保护这些项目。
I'm gonna protect those programs.
我一定会确保这些项目不会被削减。
I'm gonna make sure there are no cuts to those programs.
好的。
Okay.
那么他永远不可能取消所得税。
Well, then he's never gonna be able to eliminate the income tax.
这不可能实现。
It's impossible.
我们不得不接受更大的赤字。
We're gonna have to have bigger deficits.
我们不得不承受更多通胀，因为唐纳德·特朗普拒绝削减任何政府开支。
We're gonna have to have more inflation because Donald Trump refuses to cut any government spending.
但他却称马西为犀牛，还说他是真正想要大政府的共和党人。
Yet somehow, he calls, you know, Massey the rhino, and he's supposed to be the true Republican who wants big government.
而任何希望缩小政府规模的共和党人，反而被说成是犀牛。
And any Republicans who want smaller government, well, they're they're supposedly the the rhinos.
现在他还对价格撒了谎。
Now he also lied about prices.
对吧？
Right?
他声称所有价格都比他上任时低得多。
He claimed how all the prices are so much lower than when he took office.
你知道，他喜欢谈鸡蛋，鸡蛋价格曾大幅上涨。
Now, you know, he likes to talk about eggs, which had gone way up.
我的意思是，鸡蛋价格确实涨了很多，后来才降下来。
I mean, the egg prices went way up, so then they came down.
确实有一些价格现在比他上任时低，但这只是选择性地举例。
And there are some prices that are lower now than they were when he took office, but that's just cherry picking.
我根本不知道樱桃现在多少钱。
And I have no idea what cherries cost.
它们大概也涨价了。
They probably went up.
但如果你去超市购物，即使购物车里有些商品比一年前便宜了，更多的商品却更贵了。
But if you go grocery shopping, even if some of the items in your cart are cheaper than they were a year ago, more items are more expensive.
当你去结账时，你现在为食物支付的钱比一年前更多了。
And when you go and check out, you're paying more money for food now than you were a year ago.
有些商品便宜与否并不重要，因为平均价格已经上涨了。
It doesn't matter that some of the items are cheaper when on average the prices went up.
因此，当总统试图声称现在所有东西都比他上任时便宜时，他并没有说实话，事实并非如此。
And so the president is not being honest when he's trying to claim that everything is cheaper now that he's president, they're not.
然后他又说，他说过这样的话。
And then and then he said he said this.
他说，没人能相信物价下跌的数据竟然这么好。
He said, no one can believe how good the numbers are on falling prices.
是的。
Yeah.
你知道为什么没人会相信吗？
You know why no one could believe it?
因为这并不真实。
Because it's not true.
对吧？
Right?
这显然说得通。
That is obviously it makes sense.
他说，没人能相信我们关于价格下跌的数据。
He says, no one could believe our numbers on how much prices are falling.
没错。
Exactly.
为什么有人会相信虚假的数据？
Why would somebody believe fake numbers?
对吧？
Right?
任何买东西的人都知道价格在上涨。
Anybody who's buying stuff knows that prices are going up.
那我们为什么要相信这些数据呢？
So why should we believe, these numbers?
对吧？
Right?
这就是为什么没人会相信它们。
And that's why no one could believe them.
对吧？
Right?
现在他认为，哦，这是因为它们太出色了。
Now he thinks, oh, it's because they're so great.
没人会相信它们竟然这么出色。
No one could believe how great they are.
不。
No.
我们不相信，是因为它不真实。
We don't believe it because it's not true.
对吧？
Right?
我们大多数人正在努力变得更健康。
Most of us are trying to get healthier.
更好的饮食，更好的习惯，也许再加上一些补充剂。
Better diet, better habits, maybe a few supplements.
但说实话，有一半的时间我们只是在猜。
But let's be honest, half the time we're just guessing.
如果你能测量出你的身体实际老化程度，并根据真实数据获得一个清晰的计划，会怎么样？
What if you could measure how your body is actually aging and get a clear plan based on real data?
这就是True Diagnostic所做的。
That's what true diagnostic does.
他们检测你的生物年龄，以及维生素、炎症和营养水平等关键健康指标，然后为你制定一个个性化的90天计划，明确告诉你身体需要什么。
They test your biological age, plus key health markers like vitamins, inflammation, and nutrient levels, then give you a personalized ninety day plan showing what your body needs.
没有猜测，只有科学。
No guesswork, just science.
在线订购，试剂盒会直接寄到你家门口。
Order online and the kit ships right to your door.
我最近自己做了这个测试。
I recently took the test myself.
很简单。
It was easy.
只需在家做个指尖采血，滴入预付邮资的信封里，就完成了。
A simple at home finger prick, drop it in the prepaid envelope, and that's it.
现在我正在等结果，我真的很想知道自己的状况，尤其是炎症和营养吸收方面的情况。
Now I'm waiting on the results, and I'm genuinely curious to see where I stand, especially when it comes to things like inflammation and nutrient absorption.
知道哪些改变真正有效，哪些只是干扰信息，会很有帮助。
It'll be good to know what's actually worth changing and what's just noise.
他们提供两种核心选项：TrueAge，用于测量你的生物年龄与实际年龄的差异，并包含器官层面的衰老情况；还有TrueAge，检测超过100项指标，聚焦于你的新陈代谢、能量和免疫健康。
They offer two core options, TrueAge, which measures your biological age versus your real age and includes organ level aging, and TrueAge, which tests over 100 markers focused on your metabolism, energy, and immune health.
或者选择组合套装，获得全面的健康画像。
Or get the combo kit for the full picture.
你的长期趋势和当前基线。
Your long term trajectory and your current baseline.
你唯一要做的就是坚持九十分钟内最重要的三项行动，然后重新检测以查看进展。
Your only job, follow the three most important actions you can take for ninety days, then retest to see progress.
被顶级长寿诊所和医疗专业人士信赖，而不仅仅是家庭消费者。
Trusted by top longevity clinics and health professionals, not just consumers at home.
现在，我的听众可以在 truediagnostic.com 上使用代码 GOLD20 享受八折优惠。
Right now, my listeners can get 20% off at truediagnostic.com using code GOLD20 at checkout.
访问 truediagnostic.com，结账时使用代码 GOLD20 即可享受八折优惠。
That's truediagnostic.com and use code GOLD20 for 20% off today.
选择 TrueAge、TrueHealth 或组合套件，可一次性购买或订阅。
Choose TrueAge, TrueHealth, or the combo kit as a one time purchase or subscription.
然后他谈到了《平价医疗法案》，他称之为《负担不起的医疗法案》，这确实没错。
Then he talked about how the affordable care act, he called it the unaffordable care act, which is true.
我同意他对《平价医疗法案》的批评，但他表示他的计划是政府直接向民众提供资金，让他们购买医疗保险。
I agree with him in criticizing the affordable care act, but he said his plan is for the government to give money directly to the people so they could buy health insurance.
为什么不一开始就让钱留在人民手中？
How about just leaving the money with the people in the first place?
让他们自己做主。
Let them do what they want.
让他们在自由市场中自行决定是否购买医疗保险。
Let them buy or not buy health insurance in the free market.
我不希望政府进行财富再分配。
I don't want the government redistributing wealth.
我不希望政府从一些人那里拿钱，然后再给其他人去购买医疗保险。
I don't want the government taking money from some people and then giving it to people to buy health insurance.
一开始就让钱留在私营部门。
Leave the money in the private sector in the first place.
别从我的右口袋拿钱，然后再塞回我的左口袋。
Don't take money from my right pocket, and then hand it, and then try to slip it back into my left pocket.
就别管它了。
Just leave it alone.
就让它留在原地。
Leave it where it is.
让政府退出医疗保健。
Get the government out of health care.
问题是特朗普并不想这么做。
The problem is Trump doesn't wanna do that.
这就是我们从未废除《平价医疗法案》的原因，因为包括特朗普在内的那些懦弱的共和党人没有胆量去做。
That's why we've never repealed the Affordable Care Act because the gut Republicans, including Trump, don't have the guts to do it.
他们不想取消免费午餐，尽管这份免费午餐非常昂贵。
They don't wanna take away the free lunch, even though the free lunch is very expensive.
现在他吹嘘通过特朗普药房降低了药品价格。
Now he bragged about bringing, drug prices down with Trump Rx.
而且，就像之前的特朗普账户一样，他说他与此名称毫无关系。
And again, just like the Trump accounts, he's like, I had nothing to do with that name.
我不明白为什么它叫特朗普药房。
I don't know why why it's called Trump Rx.
你知道，有人决定这么命名的。
You know, somebody decided to name it that.
是的。
Yeah.
但这跟我没关系。
But that had nothing to do with me.
但他却吹嘘政府现在正与产业合作降低药品价格。
But he's bragging about how the government is now working with industry and lowering drugs prices.
看，选择更低的价格。
Look, opt for lower prices.
我们应该通过取消对制药行业的监管来降低药价。
We should get them by deregulating the drug industry.
我在上一期播客中提到过特朗普做的一件好事，我就不重复整个内容了，去听我上期播客吧，我在那里谈到了，那就是FDA将药品有效性的要求从需要两项研究放宽为只需一项。
Now, I mentioned on my last podcast, a good thing that Trump did, and I'm not gonna repeat the whole thing, go listen to my last podcast, I talked about it there, and that's the FDA relaxing their requirements on efficacy from requiring two studies to just one.
这是一个正确的方向。
That is a step in the right direction.
那如果没有研究呢？
But how about no studies?
不如回到1962年，或者更早的时候，那时根本不需要证明药物的有效性？
How about going back to 1962, wherever it was, where you didn't have to prove efficacy at all?
你只需要证明药物不会对你造成伤害即可。
You only had to prove that the drugs didn't harm you.
甚至可以再往前追溯，连这一点都不需要证明。
Or go back even earlier, where you didn't even have to prove that.
正如我所说，最初FDA成立后——我们直到二十世纪才有了FDA——当时FDA的授权只是下架被发现有害的药物，意味着你可以把任何药物投放市场。
As I said, initially, after we started the FDA, which we didn't even have until the twentieth century, but when they initially started the FDA, the FDA was authorized to take drugs off the market that it found to be unhealthy, meaning you could put whatever drug you wanted on the market.
你不需要证明它无害，也不需要证明它有效，你可以销售任何东西，因为这是一个自由的国家，人们有权尝试任何他们想试的东西。
You didn't have to prove it didn't hurt you, you didn't have to prove it worked, you could sell whatever you wanted because it was a free country, and people were free to try whatever they wanted.
这并不意味着你可以欺诈，你不能对药物撒谎，但如果你认为它有效并想销售，你就可以卖。
Now that doesn't mean you could commit fraud, you can't lie about the drug, but if you think it works and you wanna sell it, you could sell it.
FDA可以对药物进行研究，如果发现任何有害的药物，就可以下令将其下架。
The FDA was able to take drugs, study them, and if there's any drugs that they found harmful, they could order them off the market.
让我们回到那个话题。
Let's go back to that.
让我们回到一个自由的国家，在那里我们有很多廉价的药物，因为研发成本低得多。
Let's go back to a free country where we have a lot of drugs that are inexpensive because it's a lot cheaper to develop them.
你不需要支付所有这些研究费用。
You don't have to pay for all these studies.
让医生和患者自己决定他们想要什么药物。
Let's let doctors and patients decide what drugs they want.
别把这件事外包给政府，因为一旦外包，成本就会急剧上升。
Let's not outsource that to the government because when you do that, you really run up the costs.
这就是处方药如此昂贵的原因。
That's why prescription drugs are so expensive.
政府才是导致高成本的罪魁祸首。
It's the government that is responsible for the high cost.
政府并不是解决高药价的办法。
The government is not the solution to high drug prices.
政府是药价高昂的原因。
The government is the reason drug prices are high.
所以我们应该摆脱政府的干预。
So let's get out of the government.
顺便说一下，有一个播客，我记不清是哪一个了，我在我的播客里讲了很多关于总统日的精彩内容。
And by the way, one of the podcasts, I forget, I had a lot of good stuff on my podcast about Presidents' Day.
但不知为什么，那个播客——你知道的，那不是总统日，而是华盛顿的生日——没获得多少观看量，可能是因为人们觉得标题全是政治内容，不想看。其实我谈了很多话题，华盛顿生日的部分只是开头十二到十三分钟，如果你不了解这段历史，这部分也值得听。
But for some reason, that podcast, you know, it's not President's Day, it's Washington's birthday, didn't get a lot of views, maybe because people thought, oh, the title, it's all politics, I don't wanna I got into a lot of stuff, that the Washington's birthday stuff is just the first, you know, twelve, thirteen minutes, which was also worth listening to if you don't know your history.
但那个播客里有很多精彩内容，我很遗憾很多人错过了。
But there's a lot of great stuff in that podcast, and I feel bad that a lot of it got missed.
所以如果你因为标题而没看那个视频，不管什么原因，都回去听听吧，里面有很多有价值的内容。
So if you didn't watch that one because the title turned you off or whatever, go back and listen to it because there's a lot of good stuff on there.
特朗普还谈到了这个电价保护承诺。
Trump also talked about this rate payer protection pledge.
他似乎正在说服科技公司自己建造发电厂，而不是从电网购电，因为那样会导致电价上涨。
He's getting tech companies apparently to agree to build their own power plants and not to buy power off the grid because that's going to run up prices.
听好了，如果我们能让审批流程不那么繁琐，从而建造更多发电厂，我是没问题的。
Look, I'm fine if we can make the permitting process less onerous so that we can build more power plants.
是的，让我们让公司更容易建造发电厂，但美国政府不应当这么做。
Yeah, let's make it easier for companies to build power plants, but the US government should not be doing this.
试图骚扰或胁迫企业建造发电厂，这并不是宪法赋予的职能。
This is not a constitutional function trying to harass or intimidate companies into building a power plant.
他们完全有权利购买电力。
They have every right to buy power.
这才是自由市场。
That's the free market.
消费者没有权利不去面对企业的竞争。
The consumer doesn't have a right not to have to compete with a business.
我的意思是，我们希望自由市场能够正常运作，让市场力量发挥作用。
I mean, we we want free market to to operate, market forces.
我们希望资源能得到高效配置。
We want efficient allocation of resources.
所有这些都属于社会主义政策，结果适得其反，根本行不通。
All this is socialist type policies that backfire and don't work.
无论推动这些政策的是唐纳德·特朗普、AOC还是伯尼·桑德斯，都无关紧要。
And it doesn't matter if it's Donald Trump or AOC or Bernie Sanders who is, promoting it.
社会主义就是社会主义。
Socialism is socialism.
不管是共和党还是民主党，这种政策都行不通。
Whether it's Republican or Democratic, it doesn't work.
如果你支持共和党人倡导的社会主义政策，那么你就不能因为它是社会主义而反对民主党人提出的同样政策。
And if you support socialist policies when they're advocated by a Republican, then you can't oppose them when they're advocated by a Democrat on the basis that it's socialism.
因为一旦你接受了社会主义是好的，你又如何批评它呢？
Because once you've accepted that socialism is good, how do you criticize it?
正如之前在播客中提到的，我讨厌说谎的人。
Again, mentioned earlier in the podcast, I hate liars.
我也讨厌伪君子。
I also hate hypocrites.
所以我最讨厌的就是虚伪的骗子，对吧？
And so what I hate the most is hypocritical liars, right?
当你同时是骗子和伪君子时——就像特朗普反对伯尼·桑德斯、AOC或马德琳时，说他们是社会主义者，自己却提出并吹嘘类似的社会主义政策，他不仅在撒谎，还犯了虚伪的罪过。
So when you're both at once, when you're both a liar and a hypocrite, which is what Trump becomes when he is against Bernie Sanders or AOC or Mandame's because they're supposedly socialists, and then he proposes socialist programs himself and brags about them, he's not only lying, but he is guilty of hypocrisy as well.
他还吹嘘自己颁布的行政令，禁止华尔街公司购买独栋住宅，并希望国会将其永久化。
Now, he also bragged about his executive order banning Wall Street companies from buying single family homes, and he wants that to be made like permanent by Congress.
他说，房子是给人住的，不是给公司用的。
He said that homes are for people, not for corporations.
他到底在说什么？
What the hell is he talking about?
我的意思是，首先，公司其实就是一群人的集合。
I mean, first of all, corporations are just a collection of people.
但如果组成公司的那些人想买房子，就让他们买吧。
But if the people who form a corporation wanna buy houses, let them buy houses.
我的意思是，他们买房子到底想干什么？
I mean, what are they doing with the houses?
他们在出租这些房子。
They're renting them out.
我的意思是，他们增加了租赁房源。
I mean, so they're adding to the rental stock.
很多人买不起独栋住宅，不仅因为价格昂贵，现在更是被炒得过高，而且独栋住宅的维护成本也很高。
A lot of people can't afford to buy a single family home, not just because they're expensive, and now they're overpriced, but there's a lot of maintenance involved in a single family home.
那如果你负担不起怎么办？
What if you can't afford that?
我的意思是，有可以出租的独栋住宅，这满足了一部分特定需求。
I mean, the fact that there are single family homes that you can rent, that serves a niche.
有很多人想住在独栋住宅里，但他们要么买不起，要么不想花这笔钱去购买，却愿意租一套。
There are a lot of people who wanna live in a single family home, but either can't afford to buy one or don't wanna spend the money on buying one, but they'd like to rent one.
而且，有些住在城市里的人，发现城市的学校质量很差，孩子只能上私立学校。
And you know, sometimes too, some people that live in a city, they got lousy schools in the city and they'd have to go to private school.
所以，避开让孩子上私立学校的一种方式就是搬出去，搬到郊区住进一栋房子，这样或许可以省下私立学校的学费，转而租一套房子。
So one of the ways to get around having to put your kids in private school is you move out, you know, to the suburbs to a house, and so maybe you rent a house instead of paying tuition at a private school.
因为当你租房子时，孩子可以免费上学。
Because when you rent the house, you get to school for free.
房东在缴纳房产税时，实际上已经承担了这些费用。
The landlord is covering the costs when he pays the property tax.
现在，是的，这部分费用其实已经包含在你的租金里了，对吧？
Now, yes, that's kind of embedded in your rent, right?
房东必须收取足够的租金来获得回报，这其中包括他需要缴纳的房产税。
The landlord has to charge enough rent to make a return, which would include covering the property taxes he has to pay.
但如果你禁止这些公司收购这些独栋住宅，人们将更难租到房子。
But, you know, if you ban these companies from buying up these single family homes, people are gonna have a harder time renting homes.
但再说一遍，这全是社会主义政策，试图利用政府权力来阻止自由市场的自愿交易吗？
But again, this is all socialist policy, trying to use the power of government to stop free market, voluntary transactions?
如果我自己拥有这栋房子呢？
What if I own the home?
而愿意出最高价买下它的人或买家，是一家大公司。
And the person or the buyer who's willing to pay me the most money is a big corporation.
你是在告诉我，我不能接受这笔交易吗？
You're telling me I can't accept that deal?
不行，首先，他一开始就说自己多么关心房主，好让房主能卖个高价，对吧？
I can't No, first of all, he starts off by saying how much he cares about the homeowner so that they could have a high price for their house, right?
如果我想卖房子，而政府却说，你不能卖给这些公司，那你就限制了潜在买家。
Well, if I wanna sell my house, and the government says, well, you can't sell it to these corporations, You're limiting the potential buyers.
如果不能卖给出价最高的人，而你又要把这些人排除掉，那我的房子只能卖得更便宜。
I'm gonna get a lower price for my house if I can't sell it to the highest bidder, if you're gonna eliminate those.
他这是自相矛盾。
He's talking out of both sides of his mouth.
是的。
Yeah.
然后他提到，我漏掉了一段，但他说，他总是会保护社会保障。
Then he talked, I wrote I skipped this out of order, but he said, yeah, he's always gonna protect social security.
他总是会保护医疗补助。
He's always gonna protect Medicaid.
他总是会保护医疗保险。
He's always gonna protect Medicare.
是的。
Yeah.
这就是问题所在。
That's the problem.
我不想为了保护这些项目而去支持一位总统。
I don't wanna protect a president to protect those programs.
我们需要削减这些项目。
We need to cut those programs.
现在，我真正想保护的是那些不幸极度依赖这些项目的人。
Now, what I would like to protect is the people who unfortunately really depend on those programs.
如果没有这些项目，他们会挨饿，或者流落街头。
But for those programs, they'd be starving, or they'd be out on the street.
但要保护那些不幸现在依赖政府提供援助的人，唯一的办法是对这些项目进行经济状况调查，做出切实的改革，减少受益人数并降低福利水平。
But the only way that you can protect the people who unfortunately now depend on the government provided crutch is by means testing the programs, making meaningful changes to these programs that mean paying lower benefits to fewer people.
这必须发生。
That's what has to happen.
如果你承诺绝不触碰这些项目，那你就是毁了所有人。
If you're gonna pledge never to touch these programs, then you've doomed everybody.
甚至那些真正需要这些项目的人也会被摧毁。
Even the people who really need the programs are gonna get wiped out.
是的，你承诺给他们钱，但你并不承诺给予他们购买力。
Yes, you're committed to giving them money, but what you're not committed to doing is giving them purchasing power.
是的，每个人都会拿到社会保障支票，但这些支票会跳票。
Yes, everybody's gonna get a social security check, but the checks are gonna bounce.
不是说那种无法兑现的跳票，而是当你去商店时，发现买不了多少东西，因为货架上什么都没有，价格又太高了。
Not that, you know, bounce in the sense that you can't cash them, bounce in the sense that when you go to the store, not gonna be able to buy much because there's gonna be nothing there because the prices are gonna be too high.
特朗普说的另一个谎言是关于平衡预算的。
Then another lie Trump told was about balancing the budget.
他说我们能平衡整个预算，而现在的年度赤字高达2.5万亿美元。
He said that we could balance the entire budget, which is now 2 and a half trillion a year deficit.
他说，只要我们能消除欺诈行为，就能实现预算平衡。
He said if we could just get rid of the fraud, we would balance the budget.
我的意思是，这根本就差得远了。
I mean, well, that's not even close.
预算中每年的欺诈金额不可能达到2万亿美元。
There's not $2,000,000,000,000 a year of fraud in the budget.
是的。
Yeah.
欺诈行为确实很多，但没那么多。
There's a lot of fraud, believe, but not that much.
我肯定有好几百亿美元。
I'm sure there's several 100,000,000,000.
是的。
Yeah.
如果我们能消除所有欺诈行为，确实能显著减少赤字，但我们做不到。
We can make a decent dent in the deficit if we could eliminate all the fraud, but we can't.
我的意思是，埃隆·马斯克曾试图消除一部分欺诈行为，结果却被赶出了 town。
I mean, Elon Musk tried to eliminate some of it, and they ran him out of town.
但即使我们试图消除所有欺诈，也做不到。
But even if we tried to get rid of all the fraud, we couldn't do it.
我相信我们可以消除很多，但我们连这点都没做到。
We could get rid of a lot of it, I believe, but we're not even doing that.
但你无法彻底消除所有欺诈的原因是，政府中永远都会存在欺诈。
But the reason you can't get rid of all of it is because there's always gonna be fraud in government.
这就是政府的问题所在。
That's that's the problem with government.
这就是事物的本质。
That's the nature of the beast.
这就是为什么你希望政府越小越好，因为这样也能把欺诈控制在最小范围。
That's why you wanna keep government as small as possible because you also keep fraud as small as possible.
但政府规模越大，欺诈就会越多。
But the more government you're gonna have, the more fraud you're gonna have.
这不过是生活的现实而已。
That that's just a fact of life.
所以你永远无法彻底消除所有欺诈行为。
So you can never eliminate all the fraud.
但即使我们能做到，也只会对赤字产生很小的影响。
But even if we could, it would just make a small dent in the deficit.
我们需要的是真正削减开支，而不仅仅是消除欺诈——而这一点我们其实根本做不到。
What we need is actual cuts to spending, not just getting rid of the fraud, which we can't really do.
我们必须取消那些实实在在的项目。
We gotta get rid of the, you know, the actual programs.
我们必须削减，但他不会这么做。
We gotta cut, and he won't do that.
然后他说政府停摆可能让我们损失了2%的GDP。
Then he said that the government shutdowns probably cost us 2% of our GDP.
2%。
2%.
我的意思是，根本就没什么可说的。
I mean, there's no there's look.
就我而言，政府停摆对我们反而更有利。
As far as I'm concerned, we're better off with the government shutdown.
当我们不再被政府拖后腿时，我们的GDP增长应该会更强劲。
We should have stronger GDP growth when we don't have the government in our way.
所以，那些他归咎于民主党的政府停摆，并不是经济无法实现4%或5%增长的原因。
So the government shutdowns, which he blames on the Democrats, are are not the reason that the economy is not growing, you know, at four or 5%.
也许我们衡量GDP的方式，政府停摆只让GDP减少了15到20个基点。
Maybe the way we measure GDP, the government shutdowns are shaving 15 or 20 basis points off the GDP.
这只有总统声称数额的十分之一。
So one tenth of the amount that the president claims.
总之，这是我之前列的清单。
Anyway, that was the list of that I had made.
但你知道，我想在结束这个播客前，聊聊那些没被提到的事。
But, you know, I wanna end the podcast just talking a little bit about what wasn't said.
这才是关键。
That was the key.
我的意思是，根本没人提到失控的赤字支出，自从通过那项宏伟的法案后，情况变得更糟了。
I mean, was really no talk about the out of control deficit spending that has gotten worse since they passed the big beautiful bill.
也没人提到美元的疲软将持续下去。
No talk about the weakness in the dollar that's going to continue.
没人提及劳动力市场和经济的根本疲软，债务利息已经失控，我们现在支付的债务利息甚至超过了医疗保险或医疗补助的支出。
No talk about the underlying weakness in the labor market, in the economy, in the fact that interest on the debt has spiraled out of control, and that we're now paying more for interest on the debt than we are for Medicare or Medicaid.
对吧？
Right?
目前唯一比债务利息支出更大的项目只有社会保障，但我们正朝着财政悬崖、货币危机和主权债务危机前进。
The only program that's still bigger than interest on the debt for now is social security, but we are heading towards a fiscal cliff, heading for a currency crisis, a sovereign debt crisis.
而他只谈论一切有多美好，说国情咨文多么出色，而我们正临近建国二百五十年纪念日。
And all he talks about is how great everything is, how the State of the Union is great, as we're nearing our two hundred and fiftieth anniversary.
是的，我的意思是，七月那个数字确实会很大，但我们面临着一些严重而严重的经济问题，总统不仅声称这些问题不存在，还说美国的黄金时代已经回归。
And yes, I mean, that is going to be a big number in July, but we have some serious, serious economic problems that the president claims not only don't exist, but that the golden age of America has returned.
他在国情咨文中多次提到这一点。
And he mentioned that several times during the State of the Union.
就在这里。
It's here.
这就是美国的黄金时代。
This is the golden age of America.
美国达到了有史以来最鼎盛的时期。
America is the greatest it's ever been.
我们达到了有史以来最富裕的状态。
We're the richest we've ever been.
我们表现得最好，最辉煌的未来就在前方。
We're doing the best, and our greatest days are ahead of us.
但愿如此。
And hopefully they are.
但它们并不就在我们眼前。
They're just not right ahead of us.
也许它们在遥远的未来某个时候会到来，但在他的任期内，根本不可能，差得远了。
Maybe they're ahead of us in the distant future somewhere, but they are not ahead of us during his term, not even close.
我们正走向一些黑暗的日子。
We're headed for some dark days.
我们正面临一场真正的经济危机，其严重程度远超2008年。
We're headed for a real economic crisis, worse than 2008, on an order of magnitude.
而这场可怕危机中最糟糕的部分之一，就是它会被归咎于谁。
And one of the worst parts about this horrible crisis is who it's gonna be blamed on.
它将100%被归咎于特朗普和所有共和党人。
It's gonna be blamed a 100% on Trump and all the Republicans.
所有站出来为他加油助威的共和党人，你们都将一起完蛋。
Every Republican who's stood in line and cheer led, you're all going down.
你们都会被归咎。
You're all gonna get blamed.
你们知道还有什么会被归咎吗？
And you know what else gets blamed?
资本主义。
Capitalism.
因为共和党与资本主义联系在一起，尽管共和党内也有不少社会主义者。
Because the Republicans are associated with capitalism, even though there's a bunch of socialists in the Republican Party.
共和党，你知道的，是社会主义和资本主义的品牌。
Republican, you know, is the brand for socialism capitalism.
所以当共和党搞垮经济，或在共和党执政期间经济崩溃时，承受后果的却是资本主义。
And so when the Republicans tank the economy or tanks on the Republicans' watch, it's capitalism that takes it on the chin.
然后民主党可以说，不仅我们早就告诉过你了，对吧，把责任归咎于共和党，现在他们还能把责任推给资本主义——而他们本来就不喜欢资本主义。
And then the Democrats get to say, not only did we told tell you so, right, blame it on the Republicans, but now they get to blame it on capitalism, which they don't like anyway.
这让他们得以提出自己的社会主义解决方案，而这些方案只会让由伪装成资本主义的社会主义所引发的问题变得更糟。
And it enables them to offer up their socialist solutions that will just make the problems caused by socialism disguised as capitalism even worse.
但这就是我们正在走向的未来。
But that's where we're headed.
我认为，尽管民主党问题重重，但今年晚些时候的中期选举中，他们将取得重大胜利，而在总统大选中更是会赢得更大的胜利。
And I think the Democrats, as screwed up as that party is, are headed to big victories in the midterms later this year, and an even bigger victory in the presidential election.
那你得做什么？
So what do you gotta do?
你得大量买入黄金和白银。
You gotta load up on gold and silver.
你知道吗，今天早些时候白银价格又突破了90美元。
You know, silver earlier today got above 90 again.
我们刚刚回调了一下，现在是89.5美元。
We've pulled back, we're at 89.5.
黄金一度突破5200美元，今天晚些时候有所回落，但目前仍交易在5191美元。
Gold is got above 5,200, pulled back, late today, but it's still trading now at $51.91.
你得买黄金和白银，去Schiff Gold购买。
You gotta buy gold and silver, go to Schiff Gold.
白银，我不确定，你看，90美元时，它会不会跌回80美元？
Silver, I don't I guess, look, at $90, could it fall back down to 80?
是的。
Yeah.
我想是吧。
I guess so.
但谁知道呢？
But who the hell knows?
但黄金在5200美元，你没什么下行空间。
But gold at 5,200, you don't got much downside.
再说一遍，5000美元是底部。
Again, 5 thousand's the floor.
也许会跌到4900美元，稍微低一点，但也可能只是继续上涨。
Maybe it goes 4,900, you know, a little bit below, but it it may just be going up.
你看看黄金股吧。
You know, look at the gold stocks.
我一周或两周前在我的播客里做过这个预测。
I made this prediction on my podcast a week or two ago.
我说过，黄金矿业股，也就是GDX和GDXJ，会在黄金和白银创出新高之前先创出新高。
I said that gold mining stocks, the GDX and GDXJ will hit new highs before gold and silver hit new highs.
许多黄金和白银股票，尤其是黄金股（不是白银股），许多知名股票今天都创下了52周新高，而黄金价格仍比其高点低350美元。
And a lot of the gold and silver stocks, particularly the gold stocks, not the silver stocks, the gold stocks, a lot of the big names hit new fifty two week highs today, and gold is still $350 below its high.
白银比其高点低30美分，而许多黄金股已经创下了新高。
Silver is 30¢ below its high, and many gold stocks have hit new highs.
GDX和GDXJ尚未完全创下新高。
The GDX and GDXJ have not quite hit new highs yet.
它们可能在本周末前就会创下新高。
They probably will by the end of this week.
我认为到本周末，这两个指数都将创下新高，实现我的又一个预测。
I think by the end of the week, those two indexes will have hit new highs, fulfilling another one of my predictions.
但这对黄金和白银来说是看涨信号。
But this is bullish for gold and silver.
股票已经先于黄金和白银创下新高，这是一个领先指标。
The fact that the stocks have now made new highs ahead of gold and silver is a leading indicator.
当下一次黄金涨到5500美元时，它会继续冲高；而当黄金再次达到5500美元时，黄金股的涨幅将远超上一次达到5500美元时的水平，白银则会更高。
And the next time gold gets to 5,500, it's going there and beyond, but when it gets to 5,500 again, the gold stocks are gonna be a lot higher than they were when it hit 5,500 the first time, and silver even more so.
当白银突破121美元的高点时（它一定会突破），下一次白银回到120美元时，白银矿业股的表现将远超上次水平。
By the time silver takes out that $121 high, which it will, the silver stocks will substantially higher the next time silver's at 120 than it was the last time.
所以你仍然有机会通过访问我的网站europac.com，开设独立管理账户，购买我的黄金基金——欧洲太平洋黄金基金（EPGIX），这只基金最近几天终于开始跑赢GDX和GDXJ了。
So you still got an opportunity to load up on these mining stocks by going to, you know, my europac.com, getting a separately managed account, buying my gold fund, the Euro Pacific Gold Fund, EPGIX, which is finally now over the last couple of days starting to outperform now the GDX and GDXJ.
我们持有的部分小型股票现在也开始表现得更好了。
Some of the smaller stocks that we own are now starting to outperform.
所以现在就加仓吧。
So load up.
我们一直在等待这一刻。
I we've been waiting for this.
我们整个投资组合都建立在这些小型矿业股启动的基础上。
Our whole portfolio was predicated on these junior minors kicking in.
去年它们没有启动，但我认为今年它们会启动。
They didn't kick in last year, but I think they're gonna kick in this year.
所以你现在有一个绝佳的机会来买入黄金基金。
So you have a great opportunity to buy the gold fund.
EPGIX 是无销售费用的代码。
EPGIX is the no load symbol.
此外，如果你只是想做一些研究，想自己购买黄金和白银股票，一定要看看我通讯稿中的高级研究报告。
And also, if you're just looking for some research, if you wanna buy some gold and silver stocks on your own, you gotta check out our premium research at my newsletter.
我们可以免费注册 Shift Sovereign 的通讯，但我们还有战略资产服务，价格非常低廉，却提供大量研究报告，并在矿业领域给出许多建议。
We have a free newsletter that you can sign up for at Shift Sovereign, but we also have strategic assets, which is very inexpensive, but we give you a lot of research and we come up with a lot of suggestions in the mining space.
你必须买入这些股票，还要买入海外股票。
You gotta get into these stocks, and you gotta get into the foreign stocks.
特朗普是错的。
Trump is wrong.
表现最好的股票市场都在美国以外，这一趋势将继续下去。
The best performing stock markets are outside The United States, and that trend is gonna continue.
这不仅仅是尽管特朗普如此，某种程度上甚至是因为他推行的政策正在削弱我们的市场。
Not just, in spite of Trump, but in some ways because, because of the policies that he's pursuing are actually undermining our markets.
这正导致资金从美国撤出。
And they're causing money to be withdrawn from The U.
他一直在谈论涌入美国的所有资金。
He keeps talking about all the money that's coming into America.
但如果你看看全球股市，资金其实正在外流。
Well, if you look at the global stock markets, the money's leaving.
人们正在撤出美国市场。
People are pulling money out of The U.
美国。
S.
去海外投资。
To invest it abroad.
这一趋势将持续并加速。
That trend is gonna continue and it's gonna accelerate.
所以你应当大量买入这些外国股票。
So you wanna load up on these foreign stocks.
因此，再次提醒，查看我网站 europac.com 上的所有共同基金，我的全球价值基金、新兴市场基金和股息支付基金。
So again, look at all of my mutual funds at my website at europac.com, my global value fund, my emerging market fund, my dividend payers fund.
我认为在未来几年里，这些投资将带来惊人的回报，尤其是当美元真正开始走弱时，我认为今年余下的时间里就会发生这种情况。
I think these are gonna be delivering, phenomenal returns over the next several years, especially as The US Dollar really begins to decline, and I think that's gonna be happening for the balance of of this year.
无论如何，我这周五会再做一期播客。
Anyway, I'm gonna do another podcast this time on Friday.
又是一期‘Shift Gold 周五市场回顾’。
Again, another Shift Gold Friday market wrap.
所以，如果我对黄金和白银股票的看法正确，GDX 和 GDXJ 将创下新高，至少 GDXJ 不会，
And so if I'm right about the gold and silver stocks, the GDX and GDXJ hitting new highs, new record highs, at least not well, not the GDXJ.
那将是自 2011 年以来的多年新高，你知道的。
It'd be a new multi year high, you know, since 2011.
但 GDX 有可能创下历史新高。
But on the GDX, it could be a record high.
如果真的发生这种情况，我将在周五对此做个总结。
But if that happens, I will wrap that up on Friday.
所以请务必订阅‘Shift Gold’YouTube 频道，这样你就能收到我发布‘Shift Gold 周五市场回顾’的提醒。
So make sure you're also a subscriber to the, Shift Gold YouTube channel, so you get an alert when I'm gonna do the Shift Gold Friday market wrap.
那先这样，再见。
Bye for now.
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