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你在交易场里不交朋友，也不留活口。
You make no friends in the pits and you take no prisoners.
一分钟前你还赚了五十万美金的大豆，下一秒，完了。
One minute, you're up half 1,000,000 in soybeans and the next, boom.
你的孩子上不了大学，连你的呼吸机都被收回了。
Your kids don't go to college and they repossessed your ventilator.
你明白我的意思吗？
You with me?
革命现在就开始。
The revolution starts now.
现在开始。
Starts.
我们必须通过这项法案，这样你们才能知道里面写了什么。
We have to pass the bill so that you can find out what is in it.
把那些机器重新打开。
Turn those machines back on.
你即将进入彼得·希普秀。
You are about to enter the Peter Shipp show.
去当买家吧。
Go be the buyer.
如果我们在这里失去了自由，就无处可逃了。
If we lose freedom here, there's no place to escape to.
这是地球上最后的抵抗。
This is the last stand on earth.
彼得·希普秀现在开始。
The Peter Shipp show is on.
我不知道他们是什么时候决定把自私变成一种美德的。
I don't know when they decided that they wanted to make a virtue out of selfishness.
你的钱。
Your money.
你的故事。
Your stories.
你的自由。
Your freedom.
彼得·希普秀。
The Peter Shipp show.
大家好。
Welcome, everybody.
我上一期播客是在周日晚上做的。
Well, the last podcast I did was on Sunday night.
那是一场关于 Schiff Gold 周五市场总结的现场特别节目，因为我周五还在萨尔瓦多，所以改到了周日做。
It was a live special of the Schiff Gold Friday market wrap, which I did on a Sunday because I was still in El Salvador on Friday.
而周四和周五，黄金和白银遭到了全面打压，仅周五当天，黄金就下跌了每盎司500美元。
And it was Thursday and Friday where you had the all out assault on gold and silver with gold dropping $500 an ounce on Friday alone.
对吧？
Right?
这是有史以来单日跌幅最大的一次，以美元计。
The biggest one day drop ever dollar wise.
我的意思是，我记得黄金价格还不到每盎司500美元的时候，更别说一下跌500美元了。
I mean, I remember when gold was less than $500 an ounce, let alone dropping by $500 an ounce.
白银单日下跌了30美元。
Silver dropped $30 in a single day.
前一天，两者都创下了历史最高纪录。
Both hit all time record highs the prior day.
黄金接近5600美元，白银则突破了每盎司121美元。
Gold was close to 5,600, and silver had topped a $121 an ounce.
而且，金融媒体上不乏人说：看吧，我早就跟你们说过黄金是个泡沫。
And it it wasn't a shortage of people on the financial media saying, you see, we told you gold was a bubble.
我早就跟你们说过白银是个泡沫。
We told you silver was a bubble.
对吧？
Right?
他们以为泡沫已经破了。
They thought it had popped.
他们不明白，其实什么都没变。
They don't understand that nothing changed.
但正如我提到的，我不想重复周日说过的话。
But as I mentioned, I don't wanna repeat what I said on Sunday.
所以如果你没看过那个视频，去我的Shift Gold YouTube频道看看吧。
So if you didn't see that video, go to my Shift Gold YouTube channel and watch it.
我认为那是我做过的最受欢迎的周五市场总结。
I think it was the most popular Friday market wrap I've done.
我们有超过二十万人观看了它。
We had over 200,000 people who watched it.
所以这算得上是一期及时的播客，但如果你不是那二十万人之一，那你应该去看看。
So it was, I guess, a timely podcast, but if you're not one of those 200,000 people, then you should, go check it out.
因为我讨论了抛售背后的内幕。
Because I discussed, you know, the plot behind the selloff.
我不认为这是一次随机事件。
I didn't think it was a random event.
我认为这是有策略地实施，以达成某种特定结果。
I I thought it was strategically, done to achieve, a certain result.
但那些写黄金和白银牛市讣告的人，我认为他们太急躁了。
But the people who, you know, were writing the obituaries on the gold and silver bull market, I think, were were premature.
现在我不认为你会立即创下新高，尤其是白银，因为新高要高出30%。
Now I don't think you're gonna immediately hit new highs, certainly not in silver because, you know, new highs are 30% higher.
对吧？
Right?
你现在处于90美元。
You're at $90.
你需要上涨三分之一，也就是30美元，才能回到120美元。
You need to go up a third, $30 to get back up to, a 120.
但我对更缓慢、更稳定的上涨感到非常满意。
But I'm I'm very happy with a slower, steadier increase.
当白银上涨得太快时，人们购买起来确实越来越困难。
It was getting difficult, you know, for people to buy silver when it was rising so fast.
有点吓人。
It was a little scary.
现在你知道顶部在哪里了，而且明显不是在追高，就没那么吓人了。
It's not nearly as scary now now that you know where the top was and that you're clearly not buying it.
对吧？
Right?
你是在买入一次相当显著的回调。
You're buying a very substantial pullback.
是的。
Yes.
你仍然得花90美元，这看起来可能挺贵，但毕竟不是120美元。
You're still having to pay $90, which may seem like a high price, but it's not a $120.
有些人可是花了120美元买的。
Some people paid a 120.
所以你现在90美元入手是个不错的机会。
So you're getting a good buy at 90.
黄金也是同样的情况。
And the same thing with gold.
5000美元的黄金。
$5,000 gold.
是的。
Yeah.
看起来很贵，但有人花了5550美元买的。
It seems expensive, but somebody paid 5,550.
所以你并不是在高位买入。
So you're not you're not buying a high.
当然，这些还不是高点。
And, of course, those are not the highs.
这个牛市还有好多年才能走完。
This bull market has got years and years and years to run.
所以我们还远未触及高点。
So we're not even in the vicinity of a high.
但你知道，我认为有很多人一直犹豫不决，因为他们一直在等待市场回调。
But, you know, there are a lot of people, I think, that were hesitant to come into the market because they were waiting for a pullback.
好吧，回调已经来了。
Well, we had it.
已经结束了。
It's over.
你不再需要继续等待了。
You don't have to wait for it anymore.
它现在已经过去了。
It's now behind us.
我认为这对矿业股票尤其重要，因为我觉得当黄金和白银创下新高时，矿业股票没有大幅上涨的原因之一就在于此。
I think that's gonna be particularly important in the mining stocks because I think one of the reasons that the mining stocks were not rising spectacularly when gold and silver were making these new highs.
事实上，在白银突破1月21日新高那天，大多数白银股票反而当天下跌了。
And in fact, the day that silver made its new high above, you know, 01/21, most silver stocks were down on the day.
所以投资者非常犹豫，以为会有一轮大幅回调。
So, investors were very hesitant thinking that there was gonna be a big pullback.
现在他们是对的。
Now they were right.
我们确实经历了一次大幅回调，但现在已经过去了。
We did have a big pullback, but now it's in the past.
所以我认为一些信心将慢慢重建，我相信白银股票和黄金股票会在黄金和白银创出新高之前先创出新高。
So I think some confidence is gonna slowly be rebuilt, and I do believe that silver stocks and gold stocks will make new highs before gold and silver make new highs.
这非常看涨，但也意味着现在是买入黄金和白银矿业股票的好机会。
And that's very bullish, But it also means that it's a great opportunity to buy into the gold and silver mining stocks.
所以不要只买实物金属，当然你也可以在Schiff Gold购买。
So don't just buy the physical metals, and you could do that obviously at Schiff Gold.
顺便说一下，正如我之前警告的，溢价已经扩大。
And by the way, as I was warning, the premiums have widened.
所以即使白银大幅下跌，我们出售的银币和银条价格也下跌了，但跌幅没那么大。
So even though silver went way down, the silver coins in bars that we sold, they went down too, but not as much.
跌幅没那么大是因为价差扩大了，因为有很多实物需求在抄底。
The drop wasn't as great because the spreads went up, because there was a lot of physical demand to buy the dip.
大规模的崩盘发生在没有实物的纸面市场。
The big collapse happened in the paper market where there is no physical.
所以这是你需要记住的另一个因素。
So that's another factor that you have to bear in mind.
我预计随着时间推移，需求将增长并超过供应，这将不断推高溢价，尤其是小规格的金币和金条，比如一盎司的金币。
I do expect over time the demand to increase and outstrip the supply, and so that's gonna keep pressuring the premiums on, you know, especially the smaller coins and bars, you know, one ounce, coins.
所以现在就去买吧。
So get them now.
去 Schiff Gold 买吧。
You know, go to Shiff Gold and get them.
但这些矿业股票，我确信它们会在白银反弹之前很久就创下新高。
But these mining stocks, I I'm confident they're making new highs long before long before silver.
我认为白银股会在白银重回120美元之前，就以显著优势创下新高。
I think silver stocks will make new highs by a decent margin before silver gets back above one twenty.
因为我认为让白银股投资者持观望态度的恐惧，会随着市场从下跌中修复并回升而逐渐消退。
Because I think the fear that kept the silver stock investors on the sidelines, I think that will slowly subside as, you know, the market starts to repair from the decline and and move higher.
这与比特币目前的情况形成鲜明对比。
And this is in sharp contrast to what's happening in Bitcoin.
当然，这对我观众来说显然并不意外。
And look, this is obviously not a surprise to my audience.
我一直在说这一点。
I have been saying this.
我一直在警告大家这一点。
I've been warning about this.
我一直告诉你们这些加密货币爱好者，游戏已经结束了，趁还能退出时赶紧撤吧。
I've been telling you crypto guys, that, you know, the game is over, and you gotta get out while you can.
目前比特币的价格是72,500美元。
Well, Bitcoin right now is at 72,500.
现在它下跌了。
Now it's down.
如果拿它和黄金比较，比特币现在相当于14.5盎司黄金。
If you wanna compare it to gold, Bitcoin right now is 14 and a half ounces of gold.
2021年峰值时，它相当于36.3盎司黄金。
In 2021, at its peak, it was 36.3 ounces of gold.
比特币现在下跌了60%，以黄金计价，自2021年11月高点以来已下跌60%。
Bitcoin is now down 60%, 60% priced in gold since its November 2021 high.
对吧？
Right?
现在是2026年。
This is 2026.
现在不是11月，但已经过去四年多，快五年了，下跌了60%。
Now it's not November, but it's more than four years ago, not quite five, but down 60%.
想想比特币这期间发生了多少事，因为那时候还没有比特币ETF。
And think about all the things that have happened with Bitcoin because back then, there weren't you know, we didn't have the Bitcoin ETFs yet.
那时候也没有比特币总统。
You know, we we didn't have the Bitcoin president.
那时候也没有比特币战略储备。
We didn't have the Bitcoin strategic reserve.
我们那时候还没有MicroStrategy，我马上就会谈到它，还有其他那些效仿比特币储备的公司。
We didn't have micro strategy, and I'm about talk about them in a minute and all the other copycat Bitcoin treasury companies.
对吧？
Right?
尽管如此，以黄金计价，它还是下跌了60%。
Despite all that, it went down by 60% in terms of gold.
但即使你用美元来衡量，比特币现在的价格也只比2021年的高点高出不到6%。
But even if you wanna price it in dollars, Bitcoin is less than 6% above its 2021 high in dollars.
以美元计。
In dollars.
比特币的回报真是差劲透了。
What a lousy return on Bitcoin.
记住，它所有宣传的卖点、你之所以该买比特币的全部理由，都是因为它是最具回报的资产，但事实并非如此。
And remember, its whole claim to fame, the whole reason you're supposed to buy Bitcoin is because it's the best returning asset, yet it hasn't been.
而最能证明比特币对大多数人来说是多么差劲的资产的证据，当然不是对所有人而言。
And the best proof of what a lousy asset Bitcoin has been for most people, not for everybody.
是的。
Yeah.
如果你足够早地买入，赶上了起步阶段，那当然赚得盆满钵满。
If you bought it early enough, if you got in on the Ground Floor, yeah, you cleaned up, of course.
但如果你是在最近一两年、三四年、甚至五年前才入场的——而绝大多数人正是在这个时候进场的——那收益就惨不忍睹了。
But if you got in in the last one, two, three, four, five years, which is when the vast majority of people got in, it's been lousy.
最好的例子就是MicroStrategy。
And the best example is MicroStrategy.
MicroStrategy在购买比特币上总共投入了约550亿美元，平均买入价超过6万美元，达到6.7万美元。
MicroStrategy's average price on about 55,000,000,000 spent buying Bitcoin is over 60,000 67,000.
抱歉。
Excuse me.
刚刚超过6.7万美元。
Just over 67,000.
我的意思是，7.6万美元。
I mean, 76,000.
不好意思。
Excuse me.
刚刚超过76,000。
Just over 76,000.
我们现在刚刚高于72,000。
We're now barely above 72,000.
所以他每枚比特币亏损了大约4,000。
So he's down about 4,000 per Bitcoin.
我的意思是，这算什么？
I mean, what is that?
大约6%左右？
6% or something like that?
他在比特币上亏钱了。
He's lost money on the Bitcoin.
世界上最大的比特币买家亏钱了。
The biggest Bitcoin buyer in the world has lost money.
微策略，抱歉，要是做任何其他事情，情况都会好得多。
Microstrategy or strategy, excuse me, would have been much better off doing just about anything else.
我的意思是，显然，如果他买了黄金和白银，那简直是天壤之别。
I mean, obviously, had he bought gold and silver, I mean, it'd be night and day.
但策略公司本可以把所有用于购买比特币的资金都投入货币市场，这样就能获得正收益。
But strategy could have just taken all that money that is spent buying Bitcoin and just put it in a money market, and it would have had a positive return.
每年能获得4%的利息。
Would have got 4% interest a year.
五年4%的利息，那就是额外增加20%。
So 4% for five years, that's plus 20%.
但如今却下跌了6%。
Instead, it's down 6%.
当然，如果你持有微策略的股票——顺便说一句，今天它创下了52周新低，相比去年的高点已经下跌了75%以上。
Now, of course, if you owned MicroStrategy stock, which by the way, hit a new fifty two week low today, It's now down more than 75% from its peak price, last year.
策略公司的股票下跌了75%。
75% down on strategy stock.
今天下跌了4.7%。
Was down 4.7% today.
所以现在是129美元。
So it's at a 129.
在Sailer开始大举买入比特币之前，这只股票的价格还低于20美元。
Now, yes, before Sailor went on his Bitcoin buying binge, the stock was below $20.
我记不清具体是多少了，但我肯定低于20美元。
I forget exactly where it was, but I'm pretty sure it was less than $20.
所以如果你当时持有MicroStrategy的股票，无论在什么时候卖出，包括今天卖出，你都赚了。
So if you happen to own MicroStrategy back then and you sold out, you know, at any point, including even selling out today, you did good.
对吧？
Right?
你赚了钱，因为MicroStrategy买入了这么多比特币。
You made money because MicroStrategy strategy bought all this Bitcoin.
但买入比特币这个决定本身是错误的，因为公司在这笔比特币投资上亏了钱。
But the actual decision to buy Bitcoin was a bad one because strategy lost money on the Bitcoin.
正如我所说，如果公司直接购买货币市场基金，情况会更好。
As I said, strategy would have been better off had it just bought a money market.
但话说回来，如果赛勒说：‘我们卖股票给你们，是为了用这笔钱去买货币市场基金’，那就没人愿意为他的股票支付溢价了。
But then again, had Saylor said, Hey, the reason we're gonna sell you all this stock is so we can take the money and buy money market, nobody would've paid a premium for his stock.
我老是说错成‘微策略’，实际上之所以策略公司的股价上涨这么多，是因为它能够利用股价溢价来购买比特币，从而获得相当于免费的比特币。
The reason that micro strategy, I keep saying micro, the reason that strategy has gone up so much is because it was able to leverage the fact that it could sell stock at a premium to buy Bitcoin, and therefore get what amounted to free Bitcoin.
而它之所以能这样做、积累这么多比特币，是因为购买策略公司股票的人想要对比特币的敞口。
And the reason it was able to do that, to accumulate all this Bitcoin, was because the people who were buying strategy stock wanted exposure to Bitcoin.
他们希望获得比特币的上涨收益，同时降低下行风险，而且他们认为自己确实得到了这种保护，尤其是可转换优先股的投资者。
They wanted the upside of Bitcoin with less downside risk, and they thought they were getting that, especially the convertible prefers.
但过去五年证明，那些想要比特币敞口的人是错的。
But what the last five years have proven is that the people who wanted exposure to Bitcoin were wrong.
其实根本没有必要对比特币有敞口，因为比特币是个糟糕的投资。
There was no reason to have exposure to Bitcoin because Bitcoin was a lousy investment.
过去五年里，这个策略一直在买入比特币。
Over the last five years, that strategy has been buying it.
但购买Strategy股票的人并没有意识到这一点。
But the people who bought stock in strategy didn't realize that.
他们以为比特币会是一个不错的投资。
They they thought Bitcoin would be a good investment.
结果发现它是个糟糕的投资。
Turned out it was a lousy investment.
现在派对结束了，对吧？
And now the party's over, right?
比特币泡沫正在泄气，而Strategy也不再拥有可行的商业模式。
The air is coming out of the Bitcoin bubble, and strategy no longer has a viable business model.
问题是，他必须继续维持这些优先股的假象，如今股息已从10%上调至11%，现在又提高到11.25%。
The problem is he has to maintain the fiction of these preferreds, where he's now raised the dividend from 10% to 11%, and now to 11 and a quarter percent.
当然，公司根本没有收入来支付这些股息，所以他只能不断消耗公司的本金。
Of course, there's no income to pay these dividends, so he just has to eat into the principle of his company.
但我认为，Strategy正陷入一场缓慢的死亡螺旋。
But I think we're, you know, in a slow death spiral for strategy.
但随着比特币价格进一步低于他们的平均成本，问题将会加剧。
But as the price of Bitcoin goes further and further below their average cost, it is going to compound the problems.
我知道Sailor会说，你知道，我永远都不必卖出比特币。
Now I know Sailor says, well, you know, there's no point where I'm ever gonna have to sell Bitcoin.
但终将有一个时刻，因为某些债券到期了，对吧？
There will come a point because at some point, the notes are due, Right?
那些有明确到期日的债券，他必须凑出资金来偿还。
The ones that actually have a set maturity, and he's going to have to come up with the money.
因此，他资产负债表上唯一的资产就是比特币。
And so the only asset that he's gonna have on his balance sheet is Bitcoin.
所以比特币最终不得不被卖出。
So Bitcoin is gonna have to be sold eventually.
但可能迫使他卖出部分比特币的另一个因素是大幅折价于净资产价值，我认为这种情况将会发生。
But the other thing that might force the sale of some Bitcoin is a big discount to NAV, which I think is going to happen.
我认为你会看到Strategy的股价跌至其比特币价值的一半，这将给Sailor带来巨大压力，迫使他通过卖出比特币来回购Strategy股票，以缩小这一折价。
I think you're gonna see strategy trading for half of the value of his Bitcoin, and that will put a lot of pressure on Sailor to close that discount by selling Bitcoin to buy back strategy stock.
我的意思是，显然，他要是不这么做就是傻瓜，但话说回来，他要是这么做了也是傻瓜，因为一旦他开始抛售比特币，价格就会崩盘。
I mean, obviously, he'd be a fool not to do it, but then again, he'd be a fool to do it, I guess, because the minute he started to sell Bitcoin, the price would implode.
所以他将陷入一个无解的困境。
So he's gonna be boxed in a no win situation.
所以这完全是输局。
So it's just all lose.
你想要抛掉你的比特币。
So you wanna get rid of your Bitcoin.
你想要抛掉你的策略。
You wanna get rid of your strategy.
是的。
Yes.
尽管策略股现在处于52周低点，但别忘了它当初是从哪里起步的。
Even though strategy is on a fifty two week low, remember where the stock came from.
它曾经低于20美元，现在又将重回20美元以下，因为它唯一的资产就是比特币，而比特币正在下跌。
It was below $20, and it's going back below $20 because the only thing it's got is Bitcoin, and Bitcoin is going down.
所以如果你持有比特币，你就想把它卖了。
And so if you got it, you wanna sell it.
但显然，你最好的做法是努力把钱赚回来。
But the best thing you could do, obviously, is to try to to make back the money.
现在有些人会说，彼得，我买比特币的时候价格是八万、九万甚至十万。
Some people now are gonna say, well, Peter, you know, I bought my Bitcoin at at 80,000 or 90,000 or a 100,000.
我不想亏钱。
I don't wanna lose money.
你已经亏钱了。
You've lost money.
对吧？
Right?
那已经发生了。
That that that's already happened.
如果你想把亏掉的钱赚回来，别以为非得靠比特币来赚回，因为你很可能只会亏得更多。
If you wanna make back the money that you lost, don't think you have to make it back with Bitcoin because you'll probably just end up losing more.
你可以在黄金和白银，或者黄金和白银矿业股票中挽回你在比特币上损失的钱。
Where you can make back the money you lost on Bitcoin is in gold and silver or gold and silver mining stocks.
我认为你越早做出这个转变，就越容易弥补之前的损失。
And I think the sooner you make that switch, the easier you'll be able to make up that loss.
总之，我们马上要插播一个简短的广告，敬请留意。
Anyway, we got a quick commercial break coming right back, so stick around.
如果你正在经营任何类型的企业，无论是在线销售产品、管理库存，还是只是想让运营更有条理，你都知道同时使用多个互不兼容的软件平台有多复杂。
If you're running any kind of business, whether you're selling products online, managing inventory, or just trying to keep your operations organized, you know how complicated it can get juggling multiple software platforms that don't talk to each other.
这就是今天赞助商Odoo的用武之地。
That's where today's sponsor, Odoo, comes in.
Odoo是一个一体化的企业管理平台，将所有功能整合在一处。
Odoo is an all in one business management platform that brings everything together in one place.
我们说的是网站搭建、电子商务、库存管理、会计、客户关系管理，全部集成并无缝协作。
We're talking website building, e commerce, inventory management, accounting, CRM, all integrated and working seamlessly together.
再也不用在彼此孤立的工具之间来回切换，也不用处理数据不同步的问题。
No more switching between disconnected tools or dealing with data that doesn't sync properly.
我真正欣赏Odoo的地方在于它的可扩展性。
What I really appreciate about Odoo is just how scalable it is.
你可以从所需的基本功能开始，随着业务增长，只需添加更多应用即可。
You can start with just what you need, and as your business grows, you simply add more applications.
重点来了。
And here's the kicker.
第一个应用永久免费，包括无限的托管和支援。
The first application is completely free for life, including unlimited hosting and support.
之后，只需每月24.90美元，即可访问他们所有的应用。
After that, it's just $24.90 per month to access all of their applications.
与支付多个独立平台的费用相比，你就能明白为什么这么多企业都在转向Odoo。
Compare that to paying for multiple separate platforms, and you'll see why so many businesses are making the switch.
界面非常直观，自动化功能帮你省去了许多重复性任务。
The interface is very intuitive, and the automation saves you from many of your repetitive tasks.
所有设置都会根据你的地区、税收、货币和法规自动配置。
And everything is configured for your location, taxes, currencies, regulations, handled automatically.
所以，如果你想开始优化你的业务运营并因此节省开支，请点击描述中的链接了解Odoo。
So if you want to start streamlining your business operations and actually save money doing it, check out Odoo using the link in the description.
你知道吗，就在我现在做这个播客的这十五分钟里，黄金涨势就消退了。
You know, just in the, fifteen minutes that I was doing this podcast, the gold rally fizzled out.
之前黄金价格还在5000美元以上，现在却跌到了4950美元，四十九四十六。
And so gold was just above 5,000, and now it's below $49.50, forty nine forty six.
所以黄金转为下跌了。
So gold's turned negative.
而白银，之前高于89美元，跌幅更加剧烈，现在已跌至87.40美元。
And silver, which was above 89, has had an even sharper reversal, and it's now at eighty seven forty.
因此，金属市场波动很大，但我认为低点已经出现，我觉得我们正朝着相反的方向回升。
So a lot of volatility in in the metals market, but I think the lows are in, and I think, you know, we're headed we're headed back in the other direction.
不过，我刚才听到了一位记者问唐纳德·特朗普关于比特币的问题，你知道，他为什么如此关注加密货币和比特币。
But, you know, I was listening to a, I guess, as a reporter asking Donald Trump questions about about Bitcoin and and, you know, you know, why he wants to, you know, focus so much attention on on crypto and Bitcoin.
他提到的一点是：我相信加密货币，这就是我这么做的原因。
And, you know, one thing he said is, well, I believe in crypto, you know, that's why I'm doing it.
我相信它。
I I believe in it.
但他说的是，如果我们不这么做，如果美国不在加密货币领域领先，如果我们不是比特币之都，中国就会抢先一步。
But what he said was that if we don't do this, if America doesn't lead in crypto, if we're not the Bitcoin capital, China's gonna get there.
中国会超过我们。
China's gonna beat us.
因此他说，我们必须在加密货币领域获胜，以阻止中国获胜。
And so he said the reason that we have to win in crypto is to prevent China from winning.
我在心里想，中国人都快笑疯了。
And I'm thinking to myself, I mean, China's like they're they're laughing hysterically at this.
如果他们认为自己必须赶在我们之前抢占比特币，那他们根本不在乎比特币。
If they think that, you know, they they gotta they gotta beat us to the Bitcoin, They they don't they don't care about Bitcoin.
我的意思是，他们早就禁止了比特币。
I mean, they banned it a long time ago.
他们知道这根本就是个骗局。
They know it's it's a scam.
中国人对比特币毫无兴趣。
The Chinese have no interest in in Bitcoin.
对吧？
Right?
所以，我们非得抢先中国、别无选择地浪费所有稀缺资源、误导资本去成为加密货币领导者，只是为了赶在对中国毫无兴趣的中国前面，这合理吗？
So the idea that we have to preempt China, that we we have no choice but to, you know, waste all of our scarce resources and and misdirect our capital to becoming the leader in crypto just to beat China to it when China has absolutely no interest?
我的意思是，从他们的角度看，这简直太好了，因为我们忙着创造模因币的时候，他们把资源用在哪儿了？
I mean, you know, this is great for them as far as they're concerned because where are they putting their resources while we're creating meme coins?
他们在建工厂。
They're building factories.
当美国人购买比特币和垃圾币时，他们却在购买黄金和白银。
And while Americans are buying Bitcoin and shitcoin, whatever, they're buying gold and silver.
对吧？
Right?
他们用钱做聪明的事，而我们却在做蠢事，因为据说如果我们不做这些蠢事，中国就会去做。
So they're doing smart things with their money, and we're doing dumb things with our money because supposedly, if we didn't do these dumb things, then China would do the dumb things.
不。
No.
你知道，只有我们在做这些事。
You know, we're we're we're the only one doing them.
Anyway，今天公布了一些就业数据，还有ADP的数据。
Anyway, so we got some jobs numbers that came out today, And, you know, we got the ADP.
这是私营部门的就业数据。
This is the private jobs numbers.
通常周五我们会收到一月的官方非农就业数据，但他们推迟了。
Now, normally on Friday, we would be getting the the main government non farm payroll number for January, but they've postponed it.
我忘了具体什么时候公布。
I forget when it's coming out.
可能还要再等几周。
It's maybe another couple of weeks.
你知道，我猜，这些新的政府停摆 somehow 阻碍了他们按时发布那份总是被向下修正的、极不准确的报告。
You know, I guess, you know, whatever these new government shutdowns are is somehow preventing them from coming out with their highly inaccurate and always downwardly revised report on time.
所以我想，他们得花更长时间才能得出一个不准确的数字，之后再进行修正。
So I guess it's gonna take them longer to come up with an inaccurate number that can be revised at a later point.
但我们还是拿到了ADP的数据，因为这不是来自政府的。
But we did get the ADP numbers because that's not coming from the government.
这些数据很糟糕。
And these are bad numbers.
我的意思是，首先，设定的门槛非常低。
I mean, first of all, it was a very low bar that was set.
所以市场共识预期是4.5万个岗位。
So the consensus was for 45,000 jobs.
这已经是一个很低的门槛了。
That's a pretty low bar.
你本来以为能轻松越过这么低的门槛。
You figure you're gonna clear a bar that low.
结果并没有。
Nope.
22,000个就业岗位。
22,000 jobs.
就这么多。
That's it.
这实际上低于最低预测值，因为预测区间是从30,000个就业岗位到65,000个就业岗位。
That was actually below the low estimate because the range went from 30,000 jobs on the low end to 65,000 jobs on the high end.
而我们最终的数据是22,000。
And we came out at 22,000.
这低于最低区间。
That's below the low end.
这不到预测值的一半。
That's less than half of what was forecast.
更糟糕的是，前一个月的数据也不好，原本是41,000个就业岗位，后来被下调至37,000。
And to make it worse, the prior month, which was also not a good number, it was 41,000 jobs, that was revised down to 37,000.
所以一个本来就不好的数字变得更差了。
So a week number got even weaker.
接着，一月份的数据比十二月份还要更差。
And then consecutively, the January number was even weaker than the December number.
数据这么弱，趋势也很疲软。
So weak numbers, the trend is weak.
这份报告没有任何好的地方。
There's nothing good about this report.
但你知道，与此同时，特朗普政府却一直在谈论我们拥有有史以来最强劲的经济、全世界最强的经济、美国历史上从未有过的最强经济。
But, you know, meanwhile, the Trump administration keeps talking about how we have the strongest economy in history, strongest economy in the world, the strongest economy America has ever had.
如果经济真的这么强劲，对吧？不是稍微强一点，也不是仅仅还不错，而是有史以来最强——前所未有的好，那为什么就业数据会这么糟糕？
Well, if the economy is so, so strong, right, not not just slightly strong or not just, you know, pretty strong, but the strongest ever, like never been better in all of history, How can the job numbers be this bad?
我的意思是，这该怎么解释？
I I mean, how do you explain that?
根本无法解释这一点。
There there is no way to explain that.
对吧？
Right?
我的意思是，他们或许会尝试，但这毫无道理。
I mean, they could try, but it doesn't make any sense.
经济如此强劲，而就业增长却如此疲软，这根本说不通。
It doesn't pass the smell test that the economy could be that strong, yet the job growth could be this week.
对吧？
Right?
现在再说通胀问题，他们仍然声称通胀已经消失了。
Now also on the inflation front, right, they're they're they're still claiming that inflation is gone.
通胀根本不存在。
Inflation is nonexistent.
与此同时，油价——这正是特朗普一直依赖的论据。
You know, meanwhile, oil prices, which is the main thing that Trump's been hanging his hat on.
对吧？
Right?
据说那种每加仑99美分的汽油， somewhere 存在。
Supposedly, this dollar 99 gas, that exists somewhere.
但石油已经触底了。
But, oil has bottomed.
我一直这么说。
I've been saying that.
现在石油价格大约是每桶64美元。
And, you know, it's about $64 a barrel now.
之前曾跌到56美元左右，我想那是最低点，差不多吧。
It was down around 56, I think, was the low, something like that.
所以石油价格确实已经反转了。
So we've definitely turned around on the oil.
是的。
Yeah.
54美元。
54.
所以价格曾跌破55美元。
So it got below 55.
所以目前油价已经从低点上涨了近每桶10美元。
So we're almost $10 a barrel now off the low.
但我认为更重要的是石油股票，我一直在这个播客里谈论它们。
But I think more importantly, the oil stocks, and I've been talking about them on this podcast.
你知道，我之前谈过我大量买入石油股票的原因，因为当时黄金股票和白银股票都被抛售了，而我没有买入，因为我已经持有大量这些股票，所以我把新资金投入了石油和能源股票，因为能源是当时唯一下跌的大宗商品。
You know, I I I talked about when I bought a lot more oil stocks myself because, you know, gold stocks and silver stocks were taken off, and I wasn't buying because I had so much already in those stocks that I was putting new money in oil, energy stocks, because energy was like the one commodity that that was down.
其他所有东西都在上涨。
Everything else was going up.
而且我也在工业金属股票上投入了很多资金，比如铜之类的。
And I also have a lot of money in industrial metal stocks, you know, copper and stuff like that.
这些股票表现非常好，已经创下了新高。
And and those stocks were doing really well, and they've hit new highs.
但能源股票却很便宜。
But the energy stocks was were cheap.
油价也很便宜。
Oil was cheap.
所以我当时买了很多这类股票，我们在我们的管理账户和基金中增加了仓位。
So I was buying a bunch of those stocks, and we, you know, we increased our position in in in our in our managed accounts, in our in our funds.
几乎每只石油股票今天都创下了52周新高。
Well, just about every oil stock hit a new fifty two week high today.
我的意思是，最近它们的表现非常强劲。
I mean, they've been on fire recently.
所以我认为石油股票现在已经成为领先指标。
So what I think is happening with oil stocks is they are a leading indicator now.
我们看到的这种强势表现。
The strength that we're seeing.
当我开始买入时，这些股票正处于低位。
When I started buying more, these stocks were near their lows.
这正是促使我买入的原因。
That's, you know, kind of what prompted me to buy them.
不仅油价低，石油股票也真的处于低位。
Not only was oil low, but the oil stocks were really low.
但现在情况反转了，它们表现得非常强劲，比黄金股票强得多，因为它们是先行指标。
But now they've turned around, and they, you know, they've been very strong, a lot stronger, let's say, than the gold stocks were, because they were leading.
即使油价没涨的时候，它们也在上涨。
They were going up even when oil wasn't.
但现在油价开始上涨，证实了我们之前在油价上看到的强劲势头。
But now oil prices are moving up, confirming the initial strength that we had in oil prices.
所以请原谅我这一点。
So you gotta excuse me on that.
我会把铃声关掉。
I'll turn off my ringer.
但我提出油价强劲这个点，是为了说明总统关于通胀的整个论点站不住脚了，因为我们有了便宜的汽油。
But the point I'm making by bringing up the strength in oil is the president's whole narrative of inflation is gone because we got cheap gas.
这一点正在消失。
That's going away.
对吧？
Right?
我的意思是，选举，中期选举要到十一月才举行。
I mean, the elections, the midterm elections are not until November.
到十一月时，汽油价格会比现在高得多。
Gas prices are going to be much higher come November than they are now.
所以这一点站不住脚。
So that's not gonna play.
他没法再声称我们有便宜的汽油了。
He's not going to be able to claim that we got cheap gas.
接下来我主要想谈谈斯科特·贝森斯。
And that's pretty much I'm gonna talk, you know, about Scott Bessence.
我听了他作证，我想那是参议院银行委员会的听证会。
I was listening to him testify before the I guess this was Yeah, it was the Senate Banking Committee.
但你知道，他们对所有问题的回答都是指向汽油价格。
But, you know, their answer for everything is to point to, but gas prices.
是的，但这一切都被便宜的汽油抵消了。
Yeah, but it's all offset by cheap gas.
对吧？
Right?
因为如果你指出其他任何上涨的价格，是的，但你的汽油价格是下降的，对吧？
Because if you point to any other price that's up, yeah, but your your gas is down, right?
好像这就能弥补所有其他方面一样。
As if that makes up for everything else.
但这是他们唯一能拿得出手的了。
But it's all they got.
对吧？
Right?
但他们也撑不了多久了。
But they're not gonna have that for much longer.
这些中期选举将给共和党带来大麻烦。
And these midterm elections are gonna be a big problem for the Republicans.
如果你注意到了，最近几次选举中，在职者都输了。
If you notice, right, the last several elections, the incumbents have lost.
当特朗普第一次当选时，实际上并没有现任总统，因为奥巴马完成了他的任期。
When Trump won the first time, there was no incumbent per se, because Obama served out his term.
但希拉里·克林顿是王位的天然继承人。
But Hillary Clinton was the heir apparent to the throne.
她，你知道的，曾在他的内阁中任职。
She was, you know, in his cabinet.
她是国务卿，对吧？
She was secretary of state, right?
她还是比尔·克林顿的，你知道的，第一夫人。
And she was Bill Clinton's, you know, she was the first lady.
所以她就像现任者，但特朗普赢了。
So she was like the incumbent, but Trump won.
当特朗普以现任总统身份寻求连任时，他输了。
Then when Trump ran for reelection as the incumbent, he lost.
当哈里斯参选时，没错，不是拜登竞选第二个任期，而是哈里斯代表了作为副总统的执政党。
Then when Harris ran, yes, it wasn't Biden running for a second term, but it was Harris representing the incumbent party who was the vice president.
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她实际上是现任者，但却输给了特朗普。
She was de facto the incumbent, and she lost to Trump.
所以，不是执政党的政党连续赢得了三次全国大选。
So the party that was not in power won three consecutive elections, national elections.
为什么会这样？
Why is that?
这很简单。
It's very simple.
执政党试图以经济为口号，要求选民再给他们四年时间，承诺继续维持这个繁荣的经济，但选民根本不买账。
The incumbent party tried to run on the economy and asked the voters for four more years based on this great economy that they were going to continue, and the voters weren't buying any of that.
选举中的挑战者提出了变革的主张。
The challenger in the election had a message of change.
挑战者说：我理解你的痛苦。
The challenger said, I feel your pain.
对吧？
Right?
经济并不强劲。
The economy isn't strong.
政府在欺骗你。
You're being lied to by the government.
对吧？
Right?
选我吧。
Elect me.
我会解决的。
I'll fix it.
而挑战者赢了。
And the challenger won.
所以大选和中期选举也会发生同样的情况。
So that's what's gonna happen in the midterms and in the general election.
如今在美国，当经济状况是谎言时，你不可能靠宣传经济强劲来赢得选举。
You don't win elections in America today trying to sell the voters on a strong economy when it's a lie.
对吧？
Right?
他们不喜欢这样。
They don't like that.
他们不喜欢被人说有多好，而且他们根本不够聪明，无法意识到这一点。
They don't like being told how great it is, and they're just not smart enough to realize it.
对吧？
Right?
你们就是太蠢了，根本意识不到自己过得有多好。
You you guys are just too dumb to realize how good you have it.
经济很好，不管你知不知道。
The economy is great whether you know it or not.
对吧？
Right?
那并不是能赢得选举的东西。
That's not, something that that that wins.
对吧？
Right?
赢得选举的方式是承认选民所知道的事实。
The way you win an election is you acknowledge what the voters know.
感受他们的痛苦。
You feel their pain.
是的。
Yes.
经济很糟糕，而经济糟糕的责任在于现任者。
The economy is bad, and it's the incumbent's fault that the economy is bad.
所以你要如实说出经济有多糟糕，然后谎称你会让它变得更好。
So you tell the truth, right, about how bad the economy is, and then you lie about how you're gonna make it better.
这才是能赢的方式。
That's what wins.
不要撒谎说经济很好。
Don't lie and tell people the economy is good.
撒谎说你会让它变好，但说实话它很糟糕。
Lie and tell them that you're gonna make it good, but tell the truth that it's lousy.
所以这就是中期选举会发生的事。
And so that's what's gonna happen in the midterms.
共和党人必须告诉选民一切都很美好，而选民会知道他们在说谎。
The Republicans are gonna have to tell the voters that everything is great, and the voters are gonna know that they're being lied to.
民主党人会说，我们能解决这个问题。
The Democrats are gonna say, we could fix it.
这是个谎言。
That's a lie.
但承认情况糟糕才是真相。
But admitting that it's bad will be the truth.
你知道，有意思的是，我刚才在看，等我们下一个广告之后，我会谈一谈这个。
And, you know, it's funny because I I I was watching, and and I'm gonna talk about this after this next break that we have.
但你知道，看着斯科特·贝塞特在那些民主党人面前作证。
But, you know, watching Scott Bessett testify before all these Democrats.
对吧？
Right?
他完成了一件我根本没想到有人能办到的事。
And he accomplished something that I didn't even think anybody could could accomplish.
他实际上让民主党看起来像是理解经济学的政党。
He actually makes the Democrats look like the party that understands economics.
我的意思是，他们根本不可能让自己看起来像那样，因为他们根本不懂任何经济学。
I mean, there's there's no way that they could have made themselves look like that because they don't understand anything about economics.
但现在，当共和党试图为特朗普的政策辩护时，他们反而让民主党相比之下显得更聪明。
But now the Republicans, when they're trying to defend Trump's policies, they actually make the Democrats in a way look smart by comparison.
对吧？
Right?
所以，这可不是一件小事。
So that that that's not a small feat.
对吧？
Right?
这并不容易，尤其是考虑到他们对经济学完全无知，但这表明共和党为了支持某些特朗普主义政策已经偏离了多远。
That's not that's not, you know, easy to do considering how completely ignorant they are of economics, but that shows you how far the Republican party has drifted in order to get behind some of these Trumpian policies.
但鉴于情况将会变得如此糟糕，共和党必须全力以赴才能赢得中期选举。
But given how bad things are going to be, the Republicans are gonna have to really pull out the stops to try to win the midterms.
我的意思是，他们不会轻易认输。
I mean, they're not gonna just surrender.
我的意思是，特朗普并不想输掉中期选举。
I mean, Trump does not wanna lose the midterm elections.
我的意思是，否则他就只能面对弹劾了。
I mean, because I mean, otherwise, he's just gonna be fighting impeachment.
对吧？
Right?
如果民主党掌控了众议院，那将是他们的首要任务。
If the Democrats are in the house, that's gonna be the first order of business.
而且，你知道，有很多理由可以试图弹劾他。
And, you know, there's a lot of stuff that you could try to impeach him for.
你知道的。
You know?
我会说到这一点的，因为今天与贝森特的听证会上出现了大量这类情况。
And I'm I'm I'm gonna get to that because a lot of that stuff came out at the the the hearing today with with with Bessent.
但特朗普不想处理这些事。
But but Trump doesn't wanna have to deal with that.
所以，你知道，他会把它当成个人的事。
So and and, you know, he's gonna take it personally.
对吧？
Right?
我明白，如果共和党输了，这将是对他总统任期的否定。
I I get, you know, if if the Republicans lose, right, it'll be a repudiation of, you know, of his presidency.
如果他输了，尤其是参议院也输了，众议院和参议院都丢了的话。
If he loses, especially the the senate too, the house and the senate, if he loses both chambers.
对吧？
Right?
当然，他会试图合理化，因为‘我并没有出现在选票上’，就是这样。
Now, of course, he'll try to rationalize because, well, I wasn't on the ballot, that's why.
对吧？
Right?
你知道，特朗普的名字并没有出现在选票上，但这并不重要。
It was you know, Trump's name wasn't on the ballot, but that doesn't matter.
我的意思是，他的名字其实本来就在选票上。
I mean, his name's on the ballot anyway.
我的意思是，我认为大多数人在中期选举投票时，都会投支持特朗普或反对特朗普的票。
I mean, I think most people, when they go to vote for the midterms, are gonna be voting pro Trump or anti Trump.
我甚至觉得选票上具体是谁根本无关紧要。
I don't even think it really is going to matter who's actually on the ticket.
每个共和党候选人都打着鲜明的‘特朗普’标签，而另一个候选人只是‘非特朗普’。
Every republican has got a big t for Trump, and the other guy is just not Trump.
对吧？
Right?
所以这基本上就是情况，焦点会放在经济上。
And so that's basically what it's gonna be, and it's gonna be about the economy.
如果你觉得自己过得更好了，那你就会投特朗普。
If you feel that you're better off, then you're voting Trump.
如果你觉得自己没过得更好，那你就会投不支持特朗普的人。
And if you feel you're not better off, then you're voting not Trump.
人们不会过得更好。
And people are not gonna be better off.
你知道，物价会高很多。
There's just, you know, prices are gonna be a lot higher.
我的意思是，可负担性才是主要问题。
I mean, affordability is the main issue.
这在上一次竞选中就是主要问题。
It was the main issue in the last campaign.
这也会是这些竞选中的下一个主要问题。
It will be the next issue in these campaigns.
而且你知道，如果美元持续下跌，在我看来它确实会跌，那么长期利率并不会下降。
And, you know, if the US dollar keeps falling, which it looks to me like it will, interest rates, long term rates, they're not falling.
它们正在缓慢上升，而且这种趋势可能会加快。
They're they're inching higher, and that could pick up the pace.
就业市场正在崩溃。
And the jobs market is collapsing.
它正在转向下行。
It's rolling over.
我们可能会出现负数数据。
We could be printing negative numbers.
所以他们将会尝试各种疯狂的举措。
So they're going to try to do all kinds of crazy things.
我的意思是，特朗普可能做的就是寄出一些关税红利支票。
I mean, what Trump may do is put some tariff dividend checks in the mail.
本集由美国最大的预测市场CalSheet赞助。
This episode is sponsored by CalSheet, the largest prediction market in The US.
CalSheet 允许用户进行点对点交易，覆盖全国，包括加利福尼亚和德克萨斯。
CalSheet allows users to trade event contracts peer to peer, available across the country, including California and Texas.
下载 CalSheet 并使用代码 SB 60，交易满 10 美元即可获得 10 美元。
Download CalSheet and use code SB 60 to get $10 when you trade $10.
CalSheet 是美国最大的预测市场，它让你能够做一件独特的事。
CalSheet is the largest prediction market in The United States, and it lets you do something unique.
交易某事是否会或不会发生。
Trade on whether things will or won't happen.
别再像在普通在线体育博彩网站上那样与庄家对赌了。
Forget playing against the house as you would on typical online sports books.
CalSheet 是点对点交易。
Calshy is peer to peer trading.
你可以这样理解：
Think of it like this.
如果你认为某事件会发生，比如今年海鹰队会赢得总决赛吗？你就买入‘是’合约。
You buy a yes contract if you think an event will happen, like will the Seahawks win the big game this year?
如果你认为某事不会发生，就购买‘否’合约。
You buy a no contract if you think it won't happen.
你是在与其他用户交易，类似于买卖股票，可以随时进出仓位，锁定利润或止损。
You're trading with other users, similar to buying or selling a stock, and you could jump in or out of your position at any time to lock in a profit or cut a loss.
此外，你可以通过组合投注最大化潜在收益，通过正确预测多个不同事件来倍增你的 winnings。
Plus, you can maximize your potential payout with combos, multiplying your winnings by correctly predicting multiple events across different events.
简而言之，CalSheet 是你把钱押在预测上的地方。
In short, Calcchi is where you put your money where your prediction is.
以下是它的运作方式。
Here's how it works.
用户必须存入 10 美元，将 10 美元投入交易，然后会获得 10 美元奖励。
Users must deposit $10, put $10 on a trade, and then are rewarded $10.
下载 CalSheet 应用，使用代码 SB 60 存款即可获得 10 美元。
Download the Calshy app and get $10 when you deposit with code s b 60.
注册时使用促销代码 SB 60，交易 10 美元即可获得 10 美元。
Use promo code SB 60 when you sign up to get $10 when you trade $10.
所以我想谈谈今天参议院关于斯科特·贝塞特的证词。
So I wanna talk about the, the testimony today on you know, in the senate with Scott Bessett.
而且，你知道，你可以看到整个过程。
And, you know, you you could see the whole thing.
它，你知道，在YouTube上可以找到。
It's, you know, I it's on YouTube.
显然，这一切都是政治作秀。
And, obviously, this whole thing is political theater.
但我认为民主党看起来比共和党好得多。
But I think the Democrats, you know, look a lot better, than the Republicans.
我的意思是，他们显然对特朗普感到愤怒，并且把问题提到了贝塞特面前。
I mean, they're obviously they're outraged at at Trump, and they're, you know, bringing it to the attention of Bessett.
但贝塞特不得不为一些无法辩护的事情辩护，这就是他看起来如此荒谬的原因。
But Bessett is in a position of having to defend things that are indefensible, which is why he looks so ridiculous.
特别是其中一个要点就是关税。
So one of the points in particular are the tariffs.
对吧？
Right?
民主党人一直在指责共和党人的关税政策，这对民主党来说是个很好的议题，因为关税推高了物价。
The Democrats are all over the Republicans about tariffs, and that's a great issue for the Democrats because the tariffs are making things more expensive.
这是无法回避的。
There's no way around that.
现在，贝塞特却坚持认为，从定义上讲，关税不会导致通货膨胀，这没错，对吧？
Now, Besson wants to cling to the idea that tariffs by definition are not inflationary, which they're not, right?
因为通货膨胀是货币或信贷供应的扩张。
Because inflation is an expansion of the money supply or the credit supply.
我们确实在单独进行货币扩张，但关税会推高一些价格，同时压低另一些价格。
We're doing that separately, But the tariffs increase some prices and decrease others.
但没错，关税从技术上讲不算通货膨胀，但确实让很多东西变得更贵了。
But yes, they're not technically inflation, but they do make a lot of things more expensive.
所以，如果问题在于可负担性而非通货膨胀，那么关税会让大量产品变得远不如以前可负担。
And so if the issue is affordability more so than inflation, tariffs make a lot of products a lot less affordable.
这就是现实。
That is a reality.
你无法回避这个事实。
You can't get around that fact.
但看着斯科特·贝塞特试图回避这个事实，反而让他显得非常可笑。
But watching Scott Bessett try to get around that fact is what makes him look so ridiculous.
民主党人中，比如马克斯ine·沃特斯，我认为她一直在强调这一点，他们承认打算降低某些食品的关税，无论是咖啡、香蕉还是其他东西，因为他们希望价格下降。
So one of the things, that the Democrats, you know, Maxine Water, I think was one that was really harping on this, is that they admitted that they were going to lower tariffs on certain food items, whether it was coffee or bananas or whatever, because they wanted the prices to go down.
所以他们说，我们会降低关税，这样价格就会下降。
And so they said, well, we're going to lower the tariffs, and that will lower the prices.
她问：你在说什么？
And she's saying, what are you talking about?
你之前告诉我们，关税不会导致价格上涨。
You told us that the tariffs wouldn't cause prices to go up.
你之前告诉我们，关税会由外国人承担。
You told us that foreigners were gonna pay the tariffs.
那为什么这很重要呢？
So why should it matter?
取消关税怎么会降低价格呢？
How should getting rid of the tariffs lower prices?
对吧？
Right?
取消关税降低价格的唯一方式，就是征收关税推高了价格。
All the only way getting rid of the tariffs lowers prices is if imposing the tariff raise prices.
但他们告诉我们，这种情况不会发生。
But they told us that that wasn't gonna happen.
显然，那是个谎言，但他们仍然无法为关税辩护。
Well, obviously, it was a lie, but they still can't defend the tariffs.
他们也不能说，是的，我们关心可负担性。
And they can't say that, yeah, we care about affordability.
他们一直做的只是指向汽油价格。
All they keep doing is pointing to gas prices.
好吧。
Okay.
所以汽油价格下降了。
So gas prices are down.
这是否意味着其他所有价格都必须上涨？
Does that mean that all these other prices need to go up?
如果你没有征收这些关税，其他所有价格会不会本来就可以更低？
How about if all those other prices were lower because you didn't put the tariffs on there?
对吧？
Right?
当然，政府需要税收收入。
Now, of course, the government needs the tax revenue.
对吧？
Right?
这是另一个问题，但不会成为政治争论的一部分。
That's another issue, but that's not gonna, you know, be part of the the political argument.
你只是看到共和党支持对中产阶级、劳动穷人和非劳动穷人征税。
You've just got the Republican Party in favor of taxing the middle class and the working poor and the nonworking poor.
关税是对普通美国民众征税。
Tariffs are taxes on everyday Americans.
它们让普通美国选民购买的商品价格变得更贵。
They make the price of the things that ordinary American voters buy more expensive.
对吧？
Right?
所以民主党完全可以采取更高尚的立场，说我们不想对挣扎中的美国人征税。
So the Democrats could just take the high road on that and say, we don't wanna tax struggling Americans.
我们不想像共和党那样让他们的食品账单变得更贵。
We don't wanna make their grocery bills more expensive like the Republicans do.
共和党希望美国人为食物支付更多费用，而他们确实如此，因为关税加在了食品上。
The Republicans want Americans to pay more for their food, which they do because the tariffs are on the food.
对吧？
Right?
比如说，我记得有人指出，当各州征收销售税时，通常会将某些商品排除在销售税之外。
Even like, you know, I think somebody pointed out that when they have sales taxes, a lot of states, you know, they exempt certain things from a sales tax.
因为这些都是生活必需品。
Well, because they're essentials.
所以，好吧，我们不会对你购买食品征税。
So, all right, we're not gonna tax you when you buy groceries.
如果你去餐厅吃饭，好吧，我们会对餐厅的食物征税。
If you go and eat in a restaurant, okay, yeah, we're gonna tax restaurant food.
但如果你去超市买牛奶和面包，就不会有销售税。
But if you go and, you know, you buy milk and bread at the supermarket, you know, there's not gonna be a sales tax.
但在这里，所有进口商品——所有的水果、蔬菜、所有进入国内的东西，所有的肉类、海鲜，全都加征关税。
But here, all the imported stuff, all the fruit, all the vegetables, everything that's coming, all the meat, all the seafood that's coming in from other countries, all tariff.
但还有另一点，我想可能是马西·沃特斯提到的。
But also another thing, I think maybe it was Maxine Waters.
她谈到了对婴儿用品征收关税。
She was talking about tariffs on baby products.
我觉得她当时说的是汽车安全座椅。
I think she was talking about car seats.
她说，为什么不能对这些婴儿用品实行免税呢？
And she was saying, why don't, you know, why don't you have an exemption for, you know, all these baby products?
贝西德的回答是，这些产品都是在中国制造的。
And Bessid's answer was, well, all those products are made in China.
好吧。
Well, okay.
那是不是意味着我们不需要它们了？
So does that mean we don't need them?
这意味着刚生完孩子、需要为婴儿购买汽车安全座椅的女性，就必须因为中国是唯一生产者而支付更高的价格吗？
Does that mean women who just had babies and who now need to go out and buy a car seat for their baby, they should be forced to pay a higher price because China's the only one that makes them?
我们的国家根本不会生产这些产品。
I mean, we don't make them.
如果我们对一种我们自己根本无法生产的商品加征关税，你觉得会发生什么？
Mean, what do you think is gonna happen if you put a tariff on a product that we don't even have the ability to produce?
对吧？
Right?
所以你只能支付关税。
So you just gotta pay the tariff.
中国人并没有说：‘哦，这些汽车座椅有关税，那我们最好降价，让美国人不用多花钱。’
The Chinese are not saying, well, you know, there's a tariff on these, car seats said, so we better cut our prices so that the Americans don't have to pay more.
不。
No.
他们不会降低价格，他们会按照他们所需的利润，继续把婴儿汽车座椅卖给我们。
They don't they don't they're gonna sell their, their baby, you know, their car seats to us at the margin they need.
现在价格更高了，那是我们自己的倒霉。
And the fact that they're more expensive now, that's our tough luck.
是我们自己在对自己征税，对吧？
We're the ones that are imposing the taxes on ourselves, right?
这可不是中国人的错。
It's not the Chinese.
我们想买他们的汽车座椅，那就得付我们的关税。
We wanna buy their car seats, then we gotta pay our tariffs.
所以马克斯ine沃特斯问，你会否对此豁免？
And so Maxine Waters say, well, are you gonna exempt that?
他只能说不行。
And he's like, you know, he can't say no.
他主要的观点是，我们需要惩罚中国。
And his main thing was like, well, you know, we need to punish China.
好的。
Okay.
所以你通过提高美国人必须购买的产品价格来惩罚中国。
So you're punishing China by making the products that Americans need and have to buy more expensive.
这怎么算是惩罚中国呢？
How does that punish China?
这根本算不上惩罚中国。
It doesn't.
他们还在卖我们汽车座椅。
They're still selling us car seats.
现在也许他们卖得没那么多了，因为我们再也买不起了。
Now maybe they're not selling as many because we can't afford them anymore.
所以也许我们更多地在使用二手汽车座椅。
So maybe we're using more secondhand car seats.
也许它们没那么安全，但他们把这些汽车座椅卖到了其他地方。
Maybe they're not as safe, but they're selling those car seats to someplace else.
有人在购买它们。
Somebody else is buying them.
也许加拿大人、南美人，或者中国人在买它们，对吧？
Maybe somebody in Canada is buying them or in South America or somebody in China is buying them, right?
但共和党人试图为这些关税辩护，样子却显得极其荒谬。
But the Republicans look completely ridiculous to try to defend these tariffs the way they are.
而且这确实是一个民主党在选举中将占据优势的真正议题。
But and and so it's a it's a real winning issue that the Democrats are gonna have in in in in the elections.
当然，他们谈到了总统暂停关税时出现的大规模股市上涨。
And of course, you know, they talked about the big market, the big stock market rally that we had when the president paused his tariffs.
对吧？
Right?
每次市场对关税做出积极反应，都是因为关税根本没有实施。
Every every time the markets react positively to tariffs is when they don't happen.
对吧？
Right?
特朗普一威胁要加征关税，市场就下跌。
Trump goes in and threatens tariffs, and the market goes down.
然后他说，好吧。
And then he says, okay.
不加关税了，市场又回升了。
No tariffs, the market goes back up.
这说明了什么？
What does that tell you?
市场也不喜欢这些关税。
The market doesn't like them either.
我的意思是，你不能先用锤子猛打一个人，然后停止击打，接着就说你看，我不打你了，你现在感觉好多了吧，对吧？
I mean, you basically can't beat somebody up with a hammer, and then you stop hitting them, and now they're relieved that you're not hitting them anymore, and you say, see, I made you feel a lot better, right, because I stopped hitting you.
但不对，你一开始就是你打我的。
But no, you you hit me in the first place.
当你自己制造了痛苦，就不能因为痛苦缓解了就 claiming功劳。
You can't claim credit for the relief when you're the one that caused the pain.
这就是特朗普的做法。
That's what Trump does.
他制造了大量的痛苦，然后在痛苦缓解时，把功劳归于自己——而这些痛苦本来就是他造成的。
He causes a lot of pain, and then he takes credit when there's some relief from the pain that he caused on his own.
但我认为最糟糕的部分之一是腐败、自我交易和利益冲突。
But I think one of the worst parts about it is like the graft and the self dealing and the conflict of interest.
共和党人为了替特朗普辩护，看起来完全就是虚伪的傻瓜。
The Republicans look like complete hypocrites and fools defending Trump.
现在，其中一个问题是，这出自我认为是《纽约时报》或《华尔街日报》的报道。
Now, one of the issues now, because this was in a, I think, a New York Times or a Wall Street Journal report.
所以，总统的公司，也就是世界自由金融公司，由总统家族拥有。
So the president's company, right, World Liberty Financial, which is owned by the president's family.
我认为是埃里克或者小唐纳德，不管是谁，总统只是个名誉创始人，但这是他的家族企业。
I think it's Eric or Don Jr, whatever the president, he's like an honorary founder, but it's his family business.
而且，就在就职典礼前大约三四天，我想是四天。
And like, three or four days, I think it was four days before the inauguration.
所以，显然选举结果已经出来了。
So, obviously, the election results are in.
所有人都知道特朗普将是下一任总统。
Everybody knows Trump's the next president.
一家阿联酋公司购买了该公司一半的股份，价格约为五亿美元。
And a company in The United Arab Emirates, right, bought half of the company for about $500,000,000.
当时这家公司基本上是全新的。
Now the company was pretty much brand new.
对吧？
Right?
他们刚成立的。
They just started it.
他们以五亿美元买下了一半股份，其中约一亿八千七百万美元直接进了特朗普家族的口袋。
And they bought half of it for 500,000,000, And about 187,000,000 of the 500 went directly into the pockets of the Trump family.
对吧？
Right?
这笔钱没有留在公司里。
It didn't stay in the company.
钱直接转走了，特朗普一家把这笔钱全装进了自己的口袋。
It just went out, and the Trumps just put that money right in their pockets.
对吧？
Right?
现在，你可能会说，唐纳德·特朗普即将成为下一任总统这件事，对阿联酋这家公司的决策根本无关紧要，即使特朗普输了，他们也会投资。
Now, look, you can argue that, well, the fact that Donald Trump was gonna be the next president was totally irrelevant to the decision by this company in United Arab Emirates, that they would have bought into it even if Trump had lost.
对吧？
Right?
他们根本不在乎这笔钱进了美国总统的口袋，对吧？
That they it didn't matter to them that it was the president of The United States whose pocket they were putting all this money in, right?
如果他不是总统，只是一个普通公民，他们还是会愿意投同样的钱，对吧？
If he was not the president, if he was just an ordinary citizen, they would have been willing to put the money in, and the same amount, right?
就是这个估值，对吧？
That the valuation, right?
他们支付的5亿美元投资，即使特朗普输掉选举、没有任何政治权力，这个数字也是一样的，对吧？
What they paid, the $500,000,000 investment, that that dollar figure would have been the same even if Trump had lost the election and he was gonna have zero political power, right?
即使他最终进了监狱，别忘了，如果特朗普没赢选举，他本来可能会入狱，对吧？
Even if he had ended up in jail, because remember, if Trump didn't win the election, he could have gone to jail, right?
当时他面临很多指控，还有各种各样的问题。
There were all these charges against him and all kinds of stuff like that.
所以，如果你想辩称，无论选举结果如何，这家公司的售价都会是一样的。
So if you wanna try to argue that the sale price of this company would have been the same regardless of the outcome of the election.
我的意思是，你不可能提出这样的论点。
I mean, you know, there's no way you can make that argument.
但就在交易完成后不久，特朗普就签署了一项协议或采取了某种行动，允许阿联酋购买此前被禁止的这些芯片，即人工智能类型的芯片。
But then also, also shortly after the deal is done, Trump signs something or does something to allow The UAE to buy these chips, these AI type chips that were previously not allowed.
所以总统把数百万、上千万、超过一亿美元装进了自己的口袋，然后几乎立刻就为那些把钱放进他口袋的公司和国家做了一件巨大的好事。
So the president puts, you know, millions, tens of millions, over a 100,000,000 in his pocket, And then almost immediately does a huge favor for the company and the nation that put that money in his pocket.
对吧？
Right?
现在你可能会说，这纯粹是个巧合。
Now you could say, well, you know, it's it's a total coincidence.
对吧？
Right?
我非常客观。
I I it was very objective.
我并不在意这些人刚刚给了我五亿美元。
I didn't care that these guys just gave me $500,000,000.
我不管怎样都会这么做。
I I'd I'd have done it anyway.
对吧？
Right?
我本来就会，你知道的，这符合良好的经济逻辑。
I I'd I'd have you know, this was good, you know, economics.
这是一个正确的决定。
It was a good decision.
拜登政府错误地实施了这一限制。
The Biden administration was wrong to impose this limitation.
所以，这么做才是正确的。
And so it was just the right thing to do.
我完全没有因为它们刚刚给了我这么多钱而受到影响，对吧？
And I was not in any way swayed by the fact that they just gave me all this money, right?
我们大多数人都是在努力变得更健康。
Most of us are trying to get healthier.
更好的饮食，更健康的生活习惯，也许再加一些补充剂。
Better diet, better habits, maybe a few supplements.
但说实话，我们有一半时间只是在猜。
But let's be honest, half the time we're just guessing.
如果你能测量出身体实际的衰老程度，并根据真实数据获得一个清晰的计划，那会怎样？
What if you could measure how your body is actually aging and get a clear plan based on real data?
这就是True Diagnostic所做的。
That's what true diagnostic does.
他们检测你的生物年龄，以及维生素、炎症和营养水平等关键健康指标，然后为你制定一个个性化的90天计划，明确告诉你身体需要什么。
They test your biological age, plus key health markers like vitamins, inflammation, and nutrient levels, then give you a personalized ninety day plan showing what your body needs.
没有猜测，只有科学。
No guesswork, just science.
在线订购，检测套件会直接寄到你家。
Order online and the kit ships right to your door.
我最近自己做了这个检测。
I recently took the test myself.
很简单。
It was easy.
只需在家做个指尖采血，放进预付邮资的信封里，就完事了。
A simple at home finger prick, drop it in the prepaid envelope, and that's it.
我现在在等结果，真的很想知道自己的状况，尤其是炎症和营养吸收方面的情况。
Now I'm waiting on the results, and I'm genuinely curious to see where I stand, especially when it comes to things like inflammation and nutrient absorption.
知道哪些地方真正值得改变，哪些只是干扰信息，会很有帮助。
It'll be good to know what's actually worth changing and what's just noise.
他们提供两个核心选项：TrueAge 测量你的生物年龄与实际年龄的差异，并包含器官层面的衰老情况；TrueHealth 则检测超过100项指标，专注于你的新陈代谢、能量和免疫健康。
They offer two core options, TrueAge, which measures your biological age versus your real age and includes organ level aging, and TrueHealth, which tests over 100 markers focused on your metabolism, energy, and immune health.
或者选择组合套装，获得全面的评估。
Or get the combo kit for the full picture.
你的长期趋势和当前基线。
Your long term trajectory and your current baseline.
你唯一要做的，就是按照最重要的三项行动坚持九十天，然后重新检测以查看进展。
Your only job, follow the three most important actions you can take for ninety days, then retest to see progress.
被顶尖长寿诊所和医疗专业人士信赖，而不仅仅是家庭消费者。
Trusted by top longevity clinics and health professionals, not just consumers at home.
现在，我的听众可以通过在 truediagnostic.com 使用代码 GOLD20 获得 20% 的折扣。
Right now, my listeners can get 20% off at truediagnostic.com using code GOLD20 at checkout.
访问 truediagnostic.com，并在结账时使用代码 GOLD20 即可享受 20% 折扣。
That's truediagnostic.com and use code GOLD20 for 20% off today.
选择 TrueAge、TrueHealth 或组合套件，可一次性购买或订阅。
Choose TrueAge, TrueHealth, or the combo kit as a one time purchase or subscription.
即使那是真的，对吧？
And even if that's true, right?
即使这一切确实都是正当的，你仍然不会去做，因为外界观感不好，它看起来绝对不像正当的。
Even if it's completely true that all of this is on the up and up, you still don't do it because of the optics, because it certainly doesn't look like it's on the up and up.
当然，这很可能不是真的。
Of course, it's probably not.
根本不可能。
There's no way.
如果没有特朗普获胜，这些东西根本不可能发生，毫无疑问，他受到了这笔投资的影响。
There's no way that this stuff would have happened but for Trump winning, and there's no question that he was influenced by this investment.
事实上，这很可能是一笔权钱交易。
In fact, it probably was a quid pro quo.
他们很可能早就知道这件事要发生，所以才做了这笔投资。
They probably knew that this was coming, and that's why they make the investment.
因此，民主党人有理由指责共和党人这种行为。
And and and so the Democrats are rightly calling out the Republicans for this.
而共和党人却只是说：至少我们是公开做这件事的。
And the Republicans, all they do is like, well, you know, but at least we're doing it out in the open.
你不需要去某个笔记本电脑里找证据。
You don't have to find it in in a laptop somewhere.
对吧？
Right?
是的。
Yeah.
我们没有通过空壳公司洗钱。
We're not laundering it in shell companies.
是的。
Yeah.
他们也没有。
They're not.
他们简直就是明目张胆地做这件事。
They're, like, right out in our face with it.
对吧？
Right?
他们基本上是在更大规模上重复拜登家族的做法，而且还不隐瞒。
They're they're basically doing what the Biden's did on a much bigger scale, and they're not hiding it.
据说，这正是让它变得可以接受的原因。
And supposedly, that's what makes it okay.
他们的整个辩解就是：既然我们没有隐瞒，那肯定没什么问题。
Their bay their whole defense is, well, obviously, there can't be anything wrong with it because we're not hiding it.
它就明明白白地摆在那里。
It's just right out there.
但你知道，你只是不打算隐藏它，并不意味着这样做就是对的。
But, you know, that doesn't make it right just because you don't bother to hide it.
我的意思是，你敢这么做，简直太厚颜无耻了，你就是这么狂妄，但我想也只能这样了。
It I mean, it I mean, it's it's complete chutzpah that you could do that, that you're you're you're just so cocky, but I guess that's it.
你就直说吧，你知道的？
Just say, look, you know?
不。
No.
是的。
Yeah.
人人都看得见，我们只是说这一切都光明正大。
We're we're everybody can see, and we're just saying it's all on the up and up.
显然，这对共和党来说并不是一个有利的议题。
And obviously, this is not a winning issue for the Republicans.
我的意思是，当他们提出拜登家族的贪腐问题时，那是个不错的议题，我完全支持共和党，支持他们针对拜登及其全家的行动。
I mean, it was a good issue when they raised the graft issue about the Bidens, and I I completely stood behind the Republicans, and I supported, the Republicans when they went after Biden and his whole family.
很明显，拜登应该被弹劾，他们确实犯了罪。
And it was clear that, you know, Biden should have been impeached, that they they were committing crimes.
特朗普政府现在也在做同样的事情。
Well, Trump administration is doing the same thing.
因此，我们现在树立的先例是，相信我，民主党将在下一次总统大选中获胜。
And so the precedent that we're now setting, because believe me, right, the Democrats are going to win the the next presidential election.
他们正摩拳擦掌，因为再也不用隐藏他们窃取的钱财了，可以直接公然行事，毕竟，对公鹅管用的，对母鹅也该管用。
And they are licking their chops about the fact that they no longer have to hide the money they're stealing, that they could just do it all right out in the open because, you know, what's good for the goose.
对吧？
Right?
你树立了这个先例。
You set the precedent.
现在这事儿被认可了。
This is now okay.
所以总统可以设立公司，从外国政府和国家拿钱，然后签署有利的交易来获利——他们可以利用总统的权力。
So presidents can set up companies, and they can take money from foreign governments, foreign countries, and then they can sign favorable deals that enrich I mean, they can use you can use the power of the presidency.
我的意思是，唐纳德·特朗普特别强调这一点。
I mean, Donald Trump makes a big deal over the fact.
我不拿薪水。
Well, I don't take my salary.
是的。
Yeah.
为什么？
Why?
那点钱算不了什么。
That's small potatoes.
谁会在乎一年四五十万美元的薪水？
I mean, who cares about 4 or 500,000 a year salary?
当你一年赚几亿甚至几十亿美元的时候。
I mean, when you're making hundreds of millions or billions of dollars.
而且，你知道，看看所有这些来白宫的人。
And, you know, you look at all these people that come, to the White House.
你知道，瑞士人就在那里。
You know, the Swiss were there.
他们送他们劳力士手表，还有那些金条之类的。
They give them a Rolex and, you know, all the, you know, gold bars.
现在呢，我觉得他应该把这些东西都留在白宫，也许会放进他的图书馆里。
Now I I I I, you know, I think he's supposed to leave all that stuff at the White House, like, maybe it gets put into his library.
我不是说你可以直接把这些东西拿走。
I'm not thinking you just take it.
虽然我读到过，如果你保留所有这些礼物，就得为这些礼物缴纳所得税，但即便如此，这仍然是个不错的交易，对吧？
Although, I read somewhere that if you keep all those gifts, you have to pay income taxes on the gift, but that's still that's still like a good deal, right?
如果你得到一块免费的劳力士手表，只需要为它缴纳所得税，对吧？
If you get a free Rolex, and all you have to do is pay the income tax on it, right?
比如说，你得到一块价值六万美元的劳力士手表，然后你缴纳三万美元的所得税。
So let's say you get a $60,000 Rolex, and you pay, you know, $30,000 in income tax on it.
所以你用半价得到了这块劳力士。
So you got the Rolex for half price.
这仍然是个不错的交易。
That's still a pretty good deal.
我的意思是，如果特朗普想要另一块劳力士，他应该自己去买。
I mean, if if Trump wants another Rolex, he should go buy one.
他有的是钱。
He's got plenty of money.
我的意思是，如果我是总统，我不会拿这些东西。
He should I mean, I wouldn't take if I was the president, I wouldn't take any of this stuff.
我的意思是，我根本不会让人来贿赂我。
I mean, I I would just make it a don't don't come bribing me.
对吧？
Right?
别给我送东西。
Don't don't give me stuff.
你难道不需要向我致敬吗？
Don't you have to pay homage to me.
他虽然不是国王，但大家都知道，如果你想找特朗普帮忙，就得哄着他，对吧？
He I you know, he's not a king, but people, you know, people know that, you know, you want something from Trump, you butter him up, right?
你给他送东西，夸奖他。
You give him stuff, you flatter him.
这一切都太荒谬了，但这些丑闻、关税，再加上经济疲软，都会在选举中严重拖累他。
This whole thing is ridiculous, but all of this is going to play very badly at the polls, the graft, the tariffs, and then you're gonna have the fact that the economy is weak.
而特朗普不得不声称经济并不疲软，而是很强劲。
And Trump is gonna have to say that it's not weak, that it's strong.
正如我所说，这是一个非常容易获胜的策略。
And we know, as I've said, it's a very easy winning formula.
当你的对手谎称经济多么美好时，你只要说出真相就能赢，对吧？
When your opponent is lying about how great the economy is, all you have to do is tell the truth and you win, right?
但现在，他们并不知道你在隐瞒自己实际打算怎么做。
Now, they don't know you're lying about what you're gonna do about it.
这不重要，对吧？
That doesn't matter, right?
很明显，你才是那个真诚的人。
What's obvious is that you're the genuine one.
人们第一次喜欢特朗普，就是因为他谈论了那些虚假的政府数据，以及媒体和华尔街灌输给人们的种种胡言乱语。
And that's what people really liked about Trump the first time, was that he talked about all the fake government numbers and all the bullshit that were being fed by the media and by Wall Street.
是的，这个信息引起了共鸣，他赢得了一场没人预料他会赢的选举。
Yeah, that message resonated, and he won an election that nobody expected him to win.
但对我来说，我觉得他会赢，因为我明白这个信息会引起共鸣，因为我一直在说同样的话。
But me, I thought he was gonna win because I knew that that message would resonate because I was saying the same thing.
我的意思是，特朗普早期的竞选演讲，我觉得那些人可能在听我的播客，所以才写出那样的内容，因为他的风格真的和我非常像。
I mean, a lot of Trump's early stump speeches, I thought maybe the guys were listening to my podcasts, and that's why they were writing them, because he really sounded a lot like me.
他说的很多话和我说的一样，而且确实奏效了。
He was saying a lot of the same things that I was saying, and it worked.
但一旦他当上总统，他就变了。
But then the minute he became president, he changed.
所有那些虚假的经济数据都变成了真实的，因为他想躲在这些同样的虚假数据背后。
All the fake economic numbers became real because he wanted to hide behind those same fake numbers.
他想宣称：看看一切有多美好。
He wanted to claim, look how great everything is.
那么他是怎么做到的呢？
And so how did he do that?
他指向了那些他在奥巴马时期还说是虚假的相同数据。
He pointed to the same numbers that he said were fake when they were out under Obama.
但这种方式行不通，因为你知道，它在三次选举中都没成功。
And so that's not gonna work because, you know, it hasn't worked in three elections.
真正有效的是对公众坦诚，承认他们心里清楚的事实。
What works is leveling with the public and admitting what they know.
情况很糟糕。
Things are bad.
情况变得更糟了。
Things have gotten worse.
生活成本正在上升，而不是下降。
The cost of living is going up, not down.
人们正陷入更深的债务中。
People are going deeper into debt.
特朗普做的另一件荒谬的事，还有贝塞特，贝塞特又一次被这种荒唐事牵扯进去了。
The other ridiculous thing that Trump is doing, and Bessett, Bessett, again, got caught up in this nonsense.
特朗普说，谈到住房问题时，他想解决可负担性问题，但对他来说最重要的是房价不能下跌。
Trump said, when it comes to housing, right, he wants to solve the affordability problem, but the most important thing to him is that housing prices don't go down.
如果那些原本负担不起的东西没有变得更便宜，你就无法解决可负担性问题。
Well, you can't solve the affordability problem if the things that are unaffordable don't get less expensive.
这才是让它们变得可负担的原因。
That's what makes them more affordable.
住房之所以负担不起，是因为价格太高了。
Housing is unaffordable because the prices are too high.
然而，唐纳德·特朗普不仅说他不希望价格下跌，还明确表示他希望价格继续上涨。
Yet not only did Donald Trump say that he doesn't want the prices to come down, he specifically said he wants the prices to keep going up.
那么，如果原本就买不起的房子变得更贵了，你打算怎么解决住房可负担性问题呢？
Well, how are you gonna solve housing affordability if the unaffordable houses become even more expensive?
当然，斯科特·贝森今天还在批评移民，说房价上涨的一个原因就是这些非法入境者竞相抬高价格，但实际上根本不是这么回事。
And then, of course, you know, Scott Besson was criticizing today the immigrants, saying, you know, one of the reasons that housing prices are up is because of all these illegals that were coming in here bidding up prices, which they really weren't.
但如果真是这样，那我们为什么还要责怪他们呢？
But if that was the case, then why aren't we thanking them?
因为唐纳德·特朗普说，他喜欢高房价，因为现在房主都变富了。
Because Donald Trump says he loves these high home prices because people are rich now, homeowners are rich.
那么，如果他们是因为大量非法移民涌入抬高房价而变富的，为什么他又对这些人不满呢？
Well, if they're rich because a bunch of illegals came in and bit up the prices, then why is he mad at them?
因为这正是他想要的。
Because that's exactly what he wanted.
他希望高房价能让那些已经拥有房产的人变得更富有。
He wanted these high home prices to enrich the people that already own homes.
但如果你让已经拥有房产的人变富，就会让那些没有房产的人根本买不起房子。
But if you enrich the people who already own homes, you make it impossible for the people who don't own homes to buy them.
但那些买不起房子的人根本无法购房，这意味着拥有房子的富人其实只是自以为富有。
But the fact that it's impossible for the people who don't own homes to buy them means the people who own homes and are rich only think they're rich.
只要他们不卖房，他们才算是富有的。
They're only rich if they don't sell their home.
他们可以假装自己很富有。
They they they can pretend they're rich.
他们有一栋非常昂贵却卖不出去的房子。
They have a very expensive house that they can't sell.
对吧？
Right?
所以只要他们不打算卖房，就能继续假装自己很富有。
So as long as they don't try to sell the house, they can keep pretending they're rich.
现在，对于一栋卖不出去的房子，他们可以拿它去抵押贷款。
Now, what they can do with a house they can't sell is they could take out a loan against it.
对吧？
Right?
但如果你以一栋没人买得起的高价房屋作为抵押贷款，谁会受损？
But if you take out a loan against a house that nobody could buy because the price is too high, who's gonna lose?
贷款方，也就是银行，因为最终房价一定会下跌，这是自然发生的趋势。
The lender, the bank, because ultimately, the house price is gonna come down, because that's gonna happen naturally.
如果人们买不起房子，市场就会降低房价，直到房子变得可负担为止。
If people can't afford to buy houses, the market will reduce the price of a home until they're affordable.
但贝松，你知道，他无法反驳这一点。
But Besson, you know, couldn't argue that.
我的意思是，他试图论证我们必须保持房价高位，但同时又要让房价可负担，而他们只谈论我们需要降低按揭利率，但我们不可能获得更低的按揭利率，因为利率正在上升，因为我们背负着巨额债务。
I mean, he's trying to argue that we gotta keep home prices high, but we have to make them affordable, and all they can talk about is what we need lower mortgage rates, but we're not gonna get lower mortgage rates because interest rates are rising, because we have so much debt.
这才是问题所在。
That is the problem.
这就是美元走弱的原因。
That's why the dollar is falling.
这就是黄金创下历史新高原因。
That's why gold is at record highs.
你对美国的信心已经严重丧失。
You've got this huge loss of confidence in The United States.
我的意思是，现在外国央行对美国的信心正在下降。
I mean, right now, you've got a loss in confidence in foreign central banks.
他们在购买黄金，对吧？
They're buying gold, right?
外国投资者正在购买他们的股票。
Foreign investors, they're buying their stocks.
贝塞特对此拒不承认，但眼下正在丧失对美国信心的是外国人。
Bessett is in denial of this, but right now it's foreigners who are losing confidence in America.
但在十一月的中期选举中，失去信心的将是美国人。
But in November, in the midterms, it's gonna be Americans.
美国选民正在对政府和共和党失去信心，因为正是他们在掌舵国家，而他们正把这艘船驶向悬崖，选民们都知道这一点。
American voters are losing confidence in the administration, in the Republican party, because they're the ones that are steering the ship of state, and, you know, they're they're steering it, you know, off this cliff, and the voters know that.
总之，今天就到这里。
Anyway, that's it for, for today.
我可能还会做一期周五市场总结。
I'm probably gonna do another, Friday market wrap.
这将是本周的第二期播客。
That'll be the second podcast of the week.
所以请务必订阅这个频道，点赞视频，留下评论，然后前往Shift Gold的YouTube频道。
So make sure you, subscribe to this channel, like the video, comment on it, and then go to the Shift Gold, YouTube channel.
订阅那个频道，因为周五我们会对本周进行总结。
Subscribe to that, because on Friday, we'll wrap up this week.
接下来的周四和周五，黄金和白银市场可能还会经历几日剧烈波动。
Probably gonna have another, couple of volatile days in the gold and silver market over the next, you know, Thursday and Friday.
所以你一定要关注Shift Gold频道的更新。
So you wanna make sure and, and check that out on the Shift Gold, channel.
同时，如果你还没订阅我们在Shift Sovereign Strategic Assets的通讯，那就赶紧免费注册一份简报，再看看我们的付费简报《战略资产》。
In the meantime, also, if you're not yet a subscriber to our newsletter at, Shift Sovereign Strategic Assets, Well, make sure and sign up for the free letter at Shift Sovereign, and then check out the premium letter, Strategic Assets.
暂时再见。
Bye for now.
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