Bitcoin Will Breakout By Summer If This Happens | Jordi Visser

对白银的需求急剧上升。

The silver needs go up dramatically.

如果你算一算数字，我们根本供不上。

And if you do the numbers, we just don't have enough supply.

只要白银、黄金或者狗狗币突破，比特币也一定会跟着突破。

If silver breaks out, if gold breaks out, if Dogecoin breaks out, then bitcoin will break out.

它们都会一起涨，我预计这会在夏天结束前发生。

They'll all go together, and I expect that to happen before the end of the summertime.

大家好。

Hello, everyone.

今天，我们有幸邀请到乔迪·维瑟进行一场深入对话。

Today, we've got a great conversation with Jordi Visser.

这次我们重点聊了可能即将来临的利率上调，以及这对各类资产的影响，包括AI投资热潮、股市整体走势、大宗商品、比特币和加密货币等等。

In this conversation, we specifically talk about the interest rate hikes that could be coming down, and we talk about what the impact is to all of the various assets, what's going on with the AI trade, the rest of the stock market, commodities, bitcoin, crypto, and much more.

乔迪的观点非常独特，他现在正根据最新情况不断调整自己的投资组合和看法。

Jordi has very unique thoughts, and he's actively changing his portfolio and his mind as we speak.

这场对话揭示了他是如何思考这些问题的，以及他为何做出这些调整。

So this conversation illuminates how he's thinking about this and why he is making certain changes.

希望你们喜欢我最近和乔迪·维瑟的这次对话。

I hope you enjoy my latest conversation with Jordi Visser.

好了，乔迪，我们从这里开始吧。

All right, Jordi, a great place to start.

过去几周，加息的可能性显著上升了。

This is the odds of an interest rate hike have increased significantly over the last couple of weeks.

很多人正在琢磨，为什么会这样，这对他们的投资组合又意味着什么。

I think a lot of people are trying to figure out why is this happening and what is the impact to their portfolio.

我们先来看看，到底发生了什么变化。

Let's first start with what has changed.

作为投资者，当你获得新信息时，必须更新自己的认知框架。

As an investor, you need to update your worldview when you get new information.

你能跟我们说说，为什么现在加息对投资者来说成了一个更紧迫的问题吗？

And so can you walk us through why interest rate hikes are now much more of a situation for investors?

是的。

Yeah.

首先，为了让大伙儿明白。

First of all, you know, so people understand.

说实话，我真不记得什么时候有过这种情况——从预期全年降息三次，突然转成全年只加息一次，而且转得这么快。

I I really honestly don't remember a time where, you went in this quickly from a period of expecting three rate cuts to one rate hike over the course of of the year.

但现在我们确实就处在这个状态。

But that's where we are right now.

那我们来一步步分析一下。

So let's break it down this way.

首先，经济确实强劲，但我认为这更多是因为企业盈利表现好，还有AI相关的投资热潮，那些因素确实存在。

First of all, the economy, has been strong, but I think this is more about the earnings being strong and the AI trade and kind of the the part of it that's there.

这部分大概占了两成。

That's probably 20% of it.

但大部分原因还是来自通胀。

The bulk of this is coming from inflation.

你和我之前聊过很多关于通胀预期和未来通胀的问题。

So you and I have talked a lot about inflation expectations and inflation going forward.

一旦伊朗局势变成现在这样，霍尔木兹海峡一关闭，市场就开始预期通胀不仅今年会继续上升，而且只要这情况持续，通胀就会在高位停留更久。

Once, the situation in Iran became what it is and the strait shut down, the market started building in the likelihood that inflation was not only going higher, this year, but the longer this has gone on, the expectations are that it's gonna stay up here for longer.

目前，克利夫兰联储对五月通胀的估算又超过了0.4%，这意味着CPI同比将达到4.2%。

So as of now, the, Cleveland Fed now casting, inflation number for May is estimated to be again above point four, which would put the year over year for CPI at 4.2.

所以我们看到通胀还在继续往上走。

So we're starting to continue moving higher.

如果你看通胀预期的变化，这基本上就是眼下所有变动的核心原因。

And if you go through the inflation expectations and you change those, that is pretty much the bulk of what has happened.

我这么说，但我也觉得，AI领域的资本支出热潮，这一点很多人可能根本没料到。

So I would put it there, but I also think that the CapEx trade in AI, and this is something that people probably didn't anticipate.

我说企业盈利占两成，不只是油价在涨，名义GDP的数据也在上升。

So when I say the earnings are 20%, you not only have the oil prices going higher, but the nominal GDP stuff has gone higher.

采购经理指数里的投入价格也在涨，而这些变化其实早在伊朗事件之前就已经开始了。

Prices paid has gone higher in the PMIs, and a lot of this was happening before Iran.

所以目前市场认为，由于通胀和远超预期的名义GDP增长，利率肯定会继续上调。

So at this point, the market is just building in that we're gonna have rate hikes because of inflation and because of much stronger than expected nominal GDP.

我再给你们提一个数据，沃伦·皮斯昨天或前天发了一篇很棒的文章，指出标普500的未来销售增长率达到了18%。

And if I give you guys one more, Warren Pies put out a a great post yesterday or the day before just highlighting that the forward sales growth for the S and P five hundred is 18%.

这是两年的累计数据。

Now that's two years.

那我们粗略算一下，平均每年大概9%左右。

So let's just take it as 9% a year type thing.

这个增速对应的是非常非常高的名义GDP增长。

That correlates to very, very high nominal GDP.

我觉得现在市场真正的问题在于AI带来的影响——它正推动名义GDP持续走高。

And I think that's where the issue is right now in the market is the AI trade, the AI impact means nominal GDP is going higher.

而眼下伊朗局势引发的通胀压力是最大的焦点，不过市场目前还能暂时忽略它。

And I think the inflation side connected to it from Iran right now is the major story, and the market is, as of now, been able to look through it.

当我们展望即将来临的加息周期时，一个有意思的现象是，凯文·沃尔什上任后明确表示支持降息。

Now when we go and we see the interest rate hikes kind of on the horizon, one of the interesting parts is that Kevin Walsh is coming in, and, you know, explicitly wants interest rate cuts.

他在参议院听证会上就这么说过。

He's been saying that during his confirmation hearings.

大家都觉得特朗普特意安排他进来就是为了降息，但经济数据和市场显然在说不一样的事。

Everyone believes that Trump is putting him there specifically to cut interest rates, but the economic data or the market is obviously saying something different.

那么，会不会出现市场最终占上风的情况？还是说沃什和特朗普，或者说整个政治团队，会干脆无视数据，直接降息，就因为他们想这么做？

And so is there a world where the market wins out, or could we see Warsh and Trump and, you know, kind of more the political regime actually went out and say, even though the data says one thing, they just start cutting because that's what they wanna do?

我觉得现阶段，政府不会公开谈论降息的事。

I I don't think the administration is going to be, talking about rate cuts at this point.

我觉得他们更倾向于寄希望于利率维持现状，认为这只是暂时的现象。

I think I think they're gonna run with the hope that rates stay here, and this is a transitory belief.

就我所见，政府现在正在全力推动霍尔木兹海峡重新开放，尽量避免再发动新的空袭行动，毕竟现在油价已经到了一个非常关键的节点。

The administration is, from what I can see, I mean, they're trying everything to get the strait reopened, and not have to go do any more bombing campaigns because I think we're at a very, very critical point with gas prices where they are.

更重要的是——我们待会儿肯定会谈到——石油市场的格局已经完全不一样了。

More importantly, and I'm sure we'll get into this, the dynamic in the oil market is is a much different stage.

我是说，这一轮情况其实从二月底就开始了。

I mean, we're now, this started in February, at the end of February.

现在距离这件事开始已经快三个月了，库存正在持续减少。

So we are now almost three months into this or two you know, the full three months getting there, and inventories are being drawn down.

我觉得美联储对这件事的态度是：第一，他们根本不知道这事儿什么时候能结束。

So I think where the Fed is on this is number one, they don't know when this is gonna end.

他们也搞不清这场动荡会有多严重。

They don't know the disruption.

正是这种不确定性开始显现——不只是对美联储，我觉得投资者也该留心了，因为我们现在更关注过去已经发生的财报，而不是未来三个月可能发生的事。

And this is where the uncertainty kicks in, not only for the Fed, but my gut tells me that investors need to start paying attention because we're now focused more on trailing news, meaning the earnings that just happened, more than what's likely to happen over the next three months.

但问题是，未来三个月内，石油局势不会好转。

And the problem is the oil situation will not get better over the next three months.

霍尔木兹海峡也许会重新开放。

The strait may might reopen.

但关键在于，它能完全恢复通行吗？

The question is, will it fully reopen?

在未来这三个月里，我们才能真正看清到底有多少石油被消耗掉了，有多少产能会长期停摆。

But only over the next three months, we're really gonna see the situation in terms of how much oil has been drawn down, how much the destruction has gone on for some of the production that'll be offline for a period of time.

现在油价一涨，不管哪天油价再往上走，长期债券收益率就跟着往上蹿。

And any rise in oil price where we are right now, guys, as any day oil goes higher, you see bond long term bond yields go higher.

别光盯着美联储了，我觉得沃什会尽全力避免加息。

So forget the Fed, which I think Warsh is gonna try his best not to raise rates.

埃德加·丹尼倒是说过，他觉得七月可能有一次加息。

Edgar Denny did, say he thought there'd be a rate hike possibly in July.

埃德加·丹尼是市场上最乐观的策略师之一，他认为我们现在正处在类似咆哮的二十年代那样的局面——关于人工智能这一点，我正好也同意。

Edgar Denny's one of the most bullish strategists out there and believes we're in a, you know, a roaring twenties style situation, which I happen to agree with with regards to AI.

但我认为，在未来三个月里，投资者和美联储都处在非常不确定的时期。

But I think we're in a very uncertain period here for, investors and the Fed over the course of the next three months.

这其中一个关键因素显然是能源价格，很多人觉得，只要战争结束，能源价格就会立刻回归正常，通胀预期和实际通胀也会随之回落。

Now one aspect of this, like, inflationary pressure is obviously energy prices, and there's a belief that if the war ends, then all of a sudden there will be, a return to more normalized energy prices and inflation expectations and inflation itself will come back down.

但我感觉，你并不认同这种看法。

I get the sense that that is not your belief.

你能说说看，如果伊朗战争缓和、达成停火协议，或者出现某种和平解决方案，情况会怎样？

Can you talk a little bit as to a situation where the Iran war is wound down or there is a ceasefire or some sort of peace deal?

那你对通胀的具体走势有什么预期？

What is your expectation for what happens with inflation specifically?

停火已经持续一段时间了。

I mean, we we've had a ceasefire now for a while.

所以，你得把眼光放得更长远一点。

So, you know, I you gotta extend this further.

我们得看看那些船什么时候才能恢复正常航线。

I we have to go back to all of the ships going back to normal from where they were.

你得了解我。

So you've got to know me.

我每周都会做一期视频。

I mean, I do a video each week.

全是事实。

It's all facts.

事实是，海峡封闭后，船只至今仍没有恢复通行。

The facts are when the strait was closed, ships are still not going through.

所以我们现在老是纠结‘要是当初’‘本可以’‘应该’，这啊那啊的。

So, we can play woulda, coulda, shoulda, maybe this, that.

如果他们真重新开放了，而且持续了一个月，我觉得一旦进入这种市场状况，很明显，第一点就是盈利远超预期，这种程度我们以前从没见过。

If they did reopen it and it lasted for a month, I I think when you get into these situations with the market, it's very clear to me that number one, the earnings blew away expectations in a way that we've never seen before.

所以市场上涨是有道理的。

So it's justified for the market to go higher.

事实是，我们现在面临一个问题：能源价格比以前高了很多。

The facts of the matter are that we have a problem where energy prices are significantly higher than they were.

所以我们不知道，如果油价回到每桶98美元左右，会怎么样。

So we don't know if a move back to let's just say WTI is right around 98 right now.

我们也不知道，如果油价回到88美元，然后接下来三个月都维持在80美元上下，这到底是好是坏。

We don't know if a move back to 88 where it stays at 80 eight over the next three months, honestly, is good or bad.

目前我觉得市场已经预期到了，因为市场是根据过去的盈利在买，而且相信未来一切都会好起来。

At this point, I would say the market expects it because the market is buying things on trailing earnings and believing that everything is gonna be fine going forward.

但这里还有另一个问题，这是我最近在市场里开始注意到的另一个基于事实的现象。

But there's another issue here that comes in, and this is the other fact based thing that I'm starting to notice in the markets.

市场内部的相关性正在瓦解。

Correlations are breaking down with inside the markets.

标普500指数，现在确实接近历史高点。

The S and P 500, yes, is right up near all time highs as we start this.

只是稍微低了一点。

It's slightly below.

全球很多市场，尤其是欧洲和亚洲，过去三个月大幅下跌。

There's a lot of markets around the world, particularly in Europe and Asia, that are down significantly over the course of the last three months.

它们根本没跟上这波涨势。

They have not participated in this rally.

那些原本和美国市场高度联动的市场，比如日本和韩国——这些属于AI交易主线的地区——内部也出现分化，机械和建筑板块都不行了。

With inside markets that have been very correlated to The US, and I would say are very much part of the AI driven trade, which would be mainly Japan and Korea, internally, they're they've got things breaking down, machinery and construction.

日本的建筑指数即将跌破200日均线。

The construction index for the or for the topics, in Japan is about to break the 200 moving average.

油价正在对市场产生影响。

So oil is having an impact on markets.

这可能还没影响到美国市场，但我认为有两个原因。

It may not be having an impact on The US, but I think there's two reasons for that.

第一，我们是全球最大的能源生产国。

One is we are the world's largest energy producer.

第二，我觉得人们现在过于聚焦于我们的AI板块了——也就是那些大型云服务商和半导体公司，光是这些股票，几乎就撑起了标普500的走势。

And number two, I think, people have probably become ultra fixated on the fact that our AI market, meaning these positions, whether it's the hyperscalers plus the semis, if you just use that, that is pretty much driving the S and P 500.

标普500里其实也有很多股票在下跌，主要集中在消费领域。

You have a lot of stocks down in the S and P 500 as well, mainly on the consumption side.

所以在我看来，油价在市场内部确实已经产生了影响。

So I think within the market, oil has had an impact.

只是这种影响还没波及到眼下推动美国市场的那些板块，但全球其他地方已经开始出现下滑了。

It just hasn't had an impact on the types of things driving the market here, but it is starting to break down around the globe.

如果我们再加息，不妨回头看看2022年那次的情况。

Now if we have rate hikes let's just go back to the last time that we did this in '22.

我记得那是2021年11月，美联储开始暗示可能要加息。

We saw I think it was November 2021, the Fed started talking about potentially hiking rates.

那时候差不多就是市场的高点。

That was pretty much the top of the market.

随后美联储以史上最快的速度加息，股市、大宗商品、加密货币等全线下跌，甚至有多家银行因为风险管理不当而破产。

Then they hiked interest rates at the fastest pace in history, and the market sold off across stocks, commodities, crypto, etcetera, literally to the point where we had multiple banks that ended up going bankrupt because they didn't, kind of manage their risk correctly.

你觉得加息的速度和力度可能会有多快、多猛？

How fast and how aggressive do you think the rate hikes could be?

这会对资产价格的下跌幅度产生多大影响？

And does that matter for how much of a sell off there would be in asset prices?

我觉得不会再加息了。

I don't think there's gonna be rate hikes.

让我把这一点说清楚。

So let let me let me be clear on this.

我们上周可能提过，但对那些没听到或者没留意的人，2022年的情况现在完全不同了。

So let's we may have done this last week, but for people who maybe didn't hear it or they didn't pay attention, this is a very different situation in 2022.

我们还是回到2021年来看。

Let let's put it back to 2021.

2021年，美联储一直说这是暂时的。

2021, the Fed continually said this was transitory.

对。

Okay.

结果确实只是暂时的，但在这期间利率还是上调了。

It ended up being transitory, but it ended up being transitory with rate hikes.

不过那时候的投机热潮退得慢，而现在的关键区别就在于此。

But it took a while for the yoloing to get out of play, and the yoloing is the major difference right now.

那时候有两个因素同步上升，都对通胀或核心通胀贡献很大。

Back then, we had two parts that were moving at the same pace that both contribute heavily to the inflation or the core inflation side.

第一，工资在大幅上涨。

Number one is wages were going higher.

工资上涨的速度是我们以前没见过的。

Wages were going higher at a pace we hadn't seen before.

劳动力市场完全掌握主动权。

The labor market had complete control.

资本陷入了困境。

Capital was in trouble.

他们拼命想让人回办公室上班，可那时候人人都在躺平，根本拉不回来。

They were trying to beg people to come back to the office and at least get them back to work, and it was hard with all the yolo ing going on.

首先，工资在持续上涨。

So the first thing is wages were going higher.

其次，还有很多人在争相搬离城市。

The second thing was we still had people scrambling to get away from cities.

房地产市场一片火热。

Housing market was on fire.

各种问题蔓延到了家电领域。

You had, all kinds of situations that were spreading into appliances.

房地产火爆对很多消费品影响巨大，再加上供应链还卡着，情况更糟。

And when you have a housing market that's booming, that has huge implications for a lot of consumer related goods, and we still had bottlenecks.

现在这些瓶颈都没了。

We don't have the bottlenecks.

现在全球的货船都在航行。

Ships are going around the globe right now.

但就是不经过霍尔木兹海峡。

They're just not going through the Strait Of Hormuz.

这确实只是暂时的现象。

So this is legitimately a transitory thing.

但我们又不清楚这‘暂时’会持续多久。

We just don't know how long transitory is again.

不过正如你提到的，因为这跟大宗商品有关，所以不是结构性问题。

But because it's commodity related, to your point on the question, this is not structural.

等油价回落——迟早会的——我们就不知道伊朗到底打的什么算盘。

When oil prices come back down, which they eventually will, we just don't know if Iran has a goal in mind.

这一直僵持着。

This has been a stalemate.

美国一直在努力让海峡恢复通航，但伊朗似乎毫无松动的迹象。

The US has been trying now to get the strait open, and Iran doesn't seem to be budging.

那问题来了，为什么呢？

And the question is, why?

目前我只能基于事实来看，事实就是我们短期内不可能快速开放这个海峡。

All I can deal with are the facts at this point, and the facts are that we're not opening this quickly.

所以我预计不会降息，因为另一个问题是，2022年时的赤字根本没现在这么严重。

So I don't expect any rate cuts to happen because the other issue that is here is back in 2022, the deficit was not a big situation as big a situation it is now.

债务当然涨了，但现在我们每年的利息支出，按当前趋势看，大概会达到11.4万亿美元。

The debt has obviously gone higher, but right now we have interest expense, which annualized for this year is probably gonna be about $11,400,000,000,000.

那时候，利息才六千亿左右。

Back then, it was about 600,000,000,000.

所以现在利息负担已经大到惊人了。

So we're talking about a huge interest expense.

如果加息，情况只会更失控，这可不是他们想看到的。

If they raise rates, unfortunately, they lose control over this.

我们已经聊了很多关于赤字的问题。

So we've talked a lot about the deficit.

我们已经谈了很多关于他们能否做到这一点的问题。

We've talked a lot about the ability of them to do this.

这真是一个极其困难的处境。

This is a very, very difficult situation.

所以当人们坐在这里看着股市，觉得一切都很不错的时候，我就想说——

And this is why when people sit here and look at the stock market and like, well, this is all great.

我多次说过，美联储其实没有能力去打压股市。

I've said many times that the Fed's not in a position to hurt the stock market.

政府倒是能试着做点什么。

The government can try to do things.

去年年初他们还试图平衡预算，但很快就放弃了。

They tried to balance the budget, at the beginning of last year, gave up on that real quickly.

我觉得现在大家得接受一个现实：通胀正在往上走。

I think at this point, people have to deal with the fact that inflation is trending higher.

伊朗那边的情况并不乐观。

The situation in Iran is not there.

如果你问我，今年年底更可能的情况是通胀年率10%还是2%，我会选10%。

And if you ask me what's a higher likelihood by the end of this year, 10% inflation year over year or two, I'll take 10.

目前我们还在3.8%。

We're currently at 3.8.

现在的问题是，如果伊朗那边不解决石油问题，又打算拖很久，油价迟早会猛涨。跟2022年俄乌冲突那会儿不一样，那时候我们刚从疫情中出来，油库存本来就不够，因为之前关停了太多设施。

That's the issue right now is when you get into those situations where if Iran if we don't fix the oil problem and they wanna hold this out for a long time, oil prices eventually will start to shoot higher because unlike when we went through this situation in 2022 with Russia and Ukraine, we had a problem coming out of COVID where we had an issue with oil inventories because we had shut so many things down.

那时候我们还有富余库存。

We had a surplus.

现在库存快耗完了，大家开始讨论全球，尤其是美国的石油消耗量，还有我们从战略储备里释放了多少。

We're burning through the surplus, and now everyone is starting to talk about the draws globally, but especially in The US and how much we've released from the SPR.

到目前为止，我们已经撑过了那些石油悲观派常说的两三个月危机窗口期，但情况并没有变得更糟。

So at this point, we've kinda run through that two to three month window that all the oil doomers talk about that this would get really bad.

现在该轮到油价开始快速飙升了。

This needs to turn now where oil is gonna start to move much higher, much faster.

如果油价真这么猛涨，美联储就得面对难题了，但我还是觉得，他们不太可能加息。

And if it does move much higher, much faster, at that point, you're gonna have a problem for the Fed, and I I still don't think they're gonna be in a position to raise rates.

本期节目由Figure赞助播出。

Today's episode is brought to you by Figure.

如果你关注比特币，你肯定懂。

If you're into Bitcoin, you already know.

卖币绝对是最后才该做的选择。

Selling's the last thing you want to do.

但生活总会有意外，对吧。

But at the same time, life happens, man.

机会来了，账单也得付，市场还在动。

Opportunities arise, bills come up, and markets move.

这时候，Figure就派上用场了。

That's where Figure comes in.

它让你用比特币做抵押借钱，不用卖币就能拿到现金，还能保住你的持仓，说不定还能避掉税务问题。

Instead of selling your bitcoin, Figure lets you borrow against it so you can get cash without losing your position and may also avoid triggering a tax event.

目前他们的贷款利率大概在8.91%左右。

Right now, their loans are around 8.91% interest.

这是50%贷款价值比下9.9%的年利率。

That's 9.9% APR at a 50% loan to value.

所以你既能保留上涨空间，又能拿到现金。

So you keep your upside, but still get liquidity.

我知道大家第一个问题肯定是：但这安全吗？

And I know the first question people ask is, yeah, but is it safe?

这是个好问题。

It's a good question.

Figure使用MPC托管技术，简单说就是你的比特币会留在独立的钱包里。

Figure uses MPC custody, which basically means your bitcoin stays in its own segregated wallet.

它不会被借出、混用，也不会放在任何交易所里。

It's not being lent out, pooled, or sitting on some exchange.

他们还提供可选的清算保护，市场剧烈波动时能帮你应对。

They also have optional liquidation protection, which helps if the market gets volatile.

如果你是另一方，手头有现金想赚点收益，他们还有一个叫‘民主化主经纪业务’的产品。

And if you're on the other side, like you've got cash and you want a yield, they've got something called Democratized Prime.

年化收益率最高可达9%，按小时结算，背后有真实资产支撑，而不是靠代币通胀驱动。

It's earning up to 9% APY, paid hourly, and is backed by real world assets, not just token inflation.

所以不管你打算长期持有比特币，还是想让资金真正产生收益，这个安排都挺吸引人的。

So whether you try to hold your Bitcoin long term or actually put capital to work, it's a pretty interesting setup.

如果你想了解详情，简介里有个链接，或者你直接访问 figuremarkets.co/pump 就行。

If you wanna check it out, I've got a link in the description that you can go to, or you can go to figuremarkets.co/pump.

明白了。

Okay.

假设他们既不加息，也不降息，会怎么样呢？

So let's say that they don't raise rates, but they don't cut rates.

咱们不妨顺着资产价格来捋一捋。

Maybe let's go kind of through asset prices.

这对AI概念股和软件股其他部分分别会有什么影响？

What is the impact on the AI related stocks versus the rest of software?

你对之前特别看好的AI领域，以及不太看好的软件领域，有没有改变看法？

Have you changed your mind about anything that you've been very bullish on the AI side and not so bullish on software?

还是原来那样吗？

Is that still the same?

这周我提过，相关性出现了破裂。

So this week has been I mentioned the the breakdown in correlations.

这周早些时候，市场还出现了相当剧烈的转变。

We've also had a a pretty dramatic shift earlier in the week.

从上周五开始，我们通常都是在周五做分析，但那天情况不一样。

So between Friday of last week, you know, we we did our our normally do our stuff on on Fridays.

到周五收盘时，动量受到重创，因为软件股的表现超过了半导体股。

By the close of Friday, momentum had been hit hard, and that's because software had outperformed semis.

这其实就是市场之前在做空软件股、做多半导体股。

That's kind of the, you know, people being short software being long semis.

后来这种仓位开始反转。

We saw that unwind.

这种反转一直持续到周一，甚至周二早上。

That continued into Monday and into Tuesday morning.

在两天加上一个早盘的时间里

Over the course of two days and a morning open,

发生了

it was

一次剧烈的动量反转。

a dramatic movement in momentum.

市场上的动量因子，简单说就是，之前涨得好的跌了，跌得惨的反而涨了，也就是那些过去有效和无效的策略发生了逆转。

Now momentum as a factor factor for the market just means the winners went down, the losers went up over the course, you know, what had worked and what hadn't worked.

我之前已经说过，我卖掉了美光的股票。

I've I've mentioned that I've gotten out of Micron.

我完全不打算再买回来，除非股价出现大幅下跌，而我对AI板块出现大幅下跌并不抱期望。

I have no intention of getting back in at any price, unless it was a significant fall, and I don't expect a significant fall in the AI trade.

我之所以卖出美光，是因为我觉得市场正进入一个新阶段，而市场有时需要一点时间来适应这种变化。

But the reason I got rid of Micron is because I think we're entering a new regime, and sometimes it takes a little time for the market to deal with that.

如果我的判断没错，我们之前讨论过的那些因素——油价上涨、美联储加息风险上升——都会促使投资者平掉之前持有的头寸。

If I'm right, a lot of the things we've already talked about, rising oil prices, rising risk of a Fed rate hike, would lead to an unwind in positions that people are in.

你提到过DRAM内存ETF的成功。

You've mentioned the success of the round till DM memory ETF.

这个周末我想强调一下，一年前的今天，我写过一篇关于推理的论文。

I'm highlighting this weekend that I wrote a paper on inference a year ago to this week.

那时候正好是谷歌I/O大会去年举办的时候，他们展示出令牌数量大幅增长。

That was when Google IO had their event last year, and they showed that tokens had gone up significantly.

我当时点出了好几家公司。

And I highlighted a bunch of names.

现在，这些公司大多都纳入了DRAMETF里。

Now most of those names are in the DRAM ETF.

我提这个是因为，这个投资机会已经走了一年了。

The reason I bring it up is we're a year into that trade.

这些公司股价大多涨了四到八倍，不只是美光和SK海力士。

Most of those names are up four to eight eight times, and it's not just Micron, SK Hynix.

还包括希捷、西部数据这样的公司。

It's things like Seagate, Western Digital.

所以我们在一个已经涨得很厉害的领域里待得太久了，对我来说，未来的风险收益比已经变了。

So we're long in the tooth in something that has worked, and for me going forward, the risk reward has changed.

我觉得现在上行空间没一年前那么大了，通常这种情况意味着我该做些轮动了。

I don't see as much upside as I did a year ago, And normally, that means there's a rotation that should go on for me.

我已经像之前说的那样，把资金转到了加密货币和白银上。

I've rotated, as I've said, into crypto and silver.

我仍然保留了一部分半导体股票，主要是跟光通信更相关的，比如美满电子。

I've kept some of the semiconductors on, which are still more related to the optical side, Marvell.

这周英特尔跌到110美元以下时，我趁机买了一点，还会继续关注这个价位。

I actually bought a little bit of Intel in the weakness this week when it got under 1 10, and I'll continue to look down there.

我觉得未来三个月最可能的情况是，AI这条赛道大概率会维持现状，没什么大动静。

So I think there's very likely gonna be a scenario that best case scenario over the next three months, I think the AI trade will be unchanged type thing.

最坏的情况是，市场开始回调，那时候我们得给泡沫放点气。

Worst case scenario is we start to see a correction where we probably need to take some air out of the bubble.

你提到过美满电子，还有康宁，你之前几周也提过这家公司。

You mentioned Marvell, and Corning was another one that you had talked about for a few weeks there.

你对这两只股票怎么看？

What what are your thoughts on those two?

是的。

Yeah.

如果回顾一下AI的发展历程，最早显现的是内存需求，就像我之前说的，当推理需求上升时，我写过一篇论文，讨论内存和GPU之间的需求比例。

I'd so I I think if you go through the the cycle of where AI has been, memory was the first thing that became obvious, and that was, you know, like I said, when inference became a higher demand, I wrote this paper about the amount of memory that's needed relative to GPUs.

所以，当我能写出一篇论文的时候，其实我并不是半导体专家。这篇论文是一年前的这周写的，我觉得这意味着大部分利好已经兑现了，价格的二阶导数很可能开始下行。

So again, when I can write a paper, I'm not a semi specialist and I wrote this paper a year ago to this week, I think that means that a lot of the good news, is over, and I think the second derivative of price is gonna start to move down.

Marvell 是大约两个月前才突破的，所以还没涨太久。

Marvell only broke out about two months ago, so it's not as long in the tooth.

我个人认为，未来两年内，Marvell 有潜力成为像美光这样的公司。

And I actually happen to believe Marvell has a chance to be like a Micron type name over the course of the next two years.

在我看来，光子技术这一块的重要性不容小觑。

That's how important the optical side is in my opinion.

康宁手握一笔巨大的订单。

Corning has a massive order.

他们的收益还是会有的。

Their earnings are still gonna be there.

关键问题是，他们的其他业务会不会迎来加速？

The question is, are they gonna get an acceleration in any other part of their business?

我仍然认为，未来两年他们的股价会有显著上涨。

I still think that they're gonna be going higher over the course of the next two years in a very meaningful way.

不过我觉得内存板块的公司也会涨。

But I also think the the memory names will too.

但我感觉内存板块可能需要先歇一歇，风险也更大，因为竞争对手理论上更容易追上来，毕竟效率提升就能赶超。

I just think the memory names probably need more of a pause, and they actually have more risk because it's easier for competitors theoretically to catch up in memory just because efficiency can do that.

另一方面，我也觉得中国已经着手布局自己的产能了。

But also on the other side, I think, China has already started to build out their own side.

我并不是说这事一定会发生。

So I'm not saying that's gonna happen.

我还是相信这些公司未来五年都有潜力，只是得对那些已经涨得太多的保持警惕。

I still believe in all of these names over the course of the next five years, but I just think you gotta be, wary of things that have had a big run.

那个ETF，你提到它的交易量创了纪录。

And that ETF, you talked about the record volume.

我觉得它在很短的时间内吸引了六百亿的资金流入，可以说是历史上最成功的ETF之一。

I think it had 6,000,000,000 in inflows, in a very short amount of time, like one of the most successful ETFs in history.

SMH这个ETF已经存在很久了，我觉得它的资产管理规模大约有六千亿。

The SMH, which has been around a long time, I think it has about 60,000,000,000 in AUM.

内存股数量不多，但散户参与度很高，我觉得这里最可能出现回调。

So the memory names, which there's not that many of them, that means there's a lot of retail involvement in there, and I think that's where you'd probably see a correction.

DRAMETF现在的资产规模刚超过一千亿，我记得它们大概是五周前才推出的。

The, DRAM, ETF has, just over 10,000,000,000 in assets now, and I think they launched maybe a month, you know, five weeks ago, something like that.

这表现确实非常惊人。

So it's been pretty, pretty impressive.

咱们聊聊大宗商品这边的情况吧。

Let let's talk about, what's going on in commodities.

很明显，大宗商品市场最近一直在上涨。

Obviously, there's been this commodity bull market.

现在这些商品严重短缺。

There are these huge shortages.

你之前已经多次提到过这些情况。

You have been all over calling out a number of these.

我觉得像汤姆·李、丹·艾维斯这些人，其实也对这些情况非常了解。

I think other folks like, you know, the Tom Lees or the Dan Ives, I think they also intimately understand some of this.

从宏观环境的角度来看，你怎么看这个问题？

What is your view there in relationship more to the macro environment?

这些因素是独立于利率、通胀这些宏观变量的，更多是驱动因素而不是被动反应？

Is is it insulated and so you don't really have to pay attention to interest rates, inflation, etcetera, because this is more of a driver than a reactor?

你是怎么看待这个的？

Or how do you look at it?

对我来说，商品类标的和股票的区别在于，只要没有形成趋势，大家就提不起兴趣。比如白银，人们总在问：我该怎么买白银？

So the commodity names to me, the only difference between them and the stocks is until they have momentum going, again, people don't have any interest because the narrative on silver is, well, how do I just buy silver?

别人问我的问题，跟问美光科技的时候完全不一样。

The questions I get for silver are very different than than Micron.

大宗商品的交易量大得多，人们的思维方式更像比特币，得先讲出一个故事来。

Commodities trade a lot more, and the thought process is a lot more like bitcoin, where you have to create a narrative around it.

想想去年的黄金。

So think about gold last year.

那时候我们天天都在讨论黄金还会涨。

I mean, every day we talked about gold going higher.

现在比特币跟黄金、白银都搅在一起了。

Well, now bitcoin is with gold and with silver.

它们现在处于盘整阶段。

They're in this consolidation pattern.

我看到的结构性变化是，历史上只要CPI超过4%，股市就不太妙。

The regime shift that I see happening, and like I said, historically, when you're above 4% in CPI, it is not good for stocks.

标普500指数，只要CPI连续高于4%，回顾一下从1928年到现在，差不多一百年来的数据。

So the S and P 500, when the CPI is above 4% over the last I think I did this back to 1928, so figure approximately a 100.

CPI超过4%的时候，它的回报率一直是负的。

It has a negative return when the CPI is above 4%.

当通胀低于4%时，回报率大约在12%左右。

When it's below 4%, it has a return of about 12%.

所以一个是负收益，一个是12%，而我们现在正好要突破4%了。

So negative verse 12, well, we're just about to cross above 4%.

同时，目前三个月期国债的收益率是3.7%。

And at the same time, we have three month bills at three seventy right now.

除非美联储加息，否则CPI会比三个月期国债高出50个基点。

So CPI is gonna be 50 basis points above three month bills unless the Fed raises rates.

就算他们真的加息，问题在于能加多少呢？

And even if they do raise rates, the question is, how much would they raise?

我觉得我们现在处于一种低利率但有增长的环境里。

I I think we're in a negative, yield regime, but with growth.

关键在于，美联储不会再像过去高通胀时期那样大幅加息，但与此同时CPI又更高了。我认为真正的风险在于——我这周刚写了一篇论文，AI相关的投资进展太快，囤积行为也太猛，一旦出现供应链瓶颈，这些公司未来的业绩很可能达不到预期，尤其是当原材料成本持续上涨的时候。

So the difference is if the Fed's not gonna raise rates like it did when inflation was high, but at the same point, you have CPI that's higher, I think the real risk, and I wrote a paper about this this week, the AI trade is moving so fast, and the hoarding that's going on is so big that the issue that comes in is if we have bottlenecks, you're gonna see some of these companies not meet their numbers going forward, especially if the input costs are going higher.

到时候，利润率就会被压缩。

You'll see margins get compressed.

我觉得股市的风险就在这里。

And that's where I think the risk is in stocks.

大宗商品可没这么大的风险。

I don't see the same risk in commodities.

我觉得大宗商品有基本面支撑，尤其是铜和银，因为地缘政治需求，黄金也还在这个范畴里。

I think commodities, there's an underlying bid by geopolitical, needs on copper, on silver, and I think gold is still fitting in there.

我再补充一点，因为我刚才提到了银。

And I'll just add one thing since I've talked about silver in this group.

银在太阳能产业里占了很大一部分。

Silver is a major part of solar.

它在人工智能产业链的每个环节都必不可少，而且需求还在持续增长。

It's needed in every single part of the AI trade, but there's also a growing trade going.

三月份中国进口的白银创下了历史最高纪录。

March was the largest import month for China in history on silver.

固态电池——我跟机构圈的人反复说过，如果你不想落后，除了化工之外，最该花时间研究的就是电池。

Solid state batteries, which I've said repeatedly to people on the institutional side that if there's one place that you should be spending a lot of time outside of chemicals to make sure you're up to speed, it is batteries.

原因很简单，如果我们想解决美国的能源和电力问题，最直接的办法就是大规模部署电池，接入电网的每一个环节。

And the reason is if we wanna solve our energy and power problem in The US, the easiest way to do it is to have massive batteries, connected to every part of the grid.

因为只要能把电存下来，我们就能用掉更多平时过剩的发电能力——毕竟我们有很多日子发电量是用不完的。

Because if we can store the energy, then we can use up more of the excess capacity we have because we do have a lot of capacity on days where we don't need it.

真正麻烦的，只是那些用电高峰的日子，那时候才得靠存下来的电撑着。

It's only on those days where we have to keep the excess in there.

所以电池特别关键，尤其是中国，在固态电池领域已经取得了巨大突破。

So batteries are really important, and China in particular has made huge advances in solid state batteries.

这一点至关重要，但固态电池用的银，比锂离子电池多得多。

This is critical, but the difference is it uses a tremendous amount of silver relative to lithium batteries.

如果未来五年内固态电池全面取代锂电，银的需求会急剧飙升。

And so if solid state replaces lithium over the course of the next five years, the silver needs go up dramatically.

你算一算数据就知道，我们现在的供应根本跟不上。

And if you do the numbers, we just don't have enough supply.

所以银是那个一旦爆发，就会有巨大影响的品种——我上周说过的话，今天再说一遍。

So silver is the one that when it breaks out, and I'll say the same thing I said last week.

如果白银暴涨，黄金暴涨，狗狗币暴涨，那比特币也一定会暴涨。

If silver breaks out, if gold breaks out, if Dogecoin breaks out, then bitcoin will break out.

它们会一起涨，我预计这事会在夏天结束前发生。

They'll all go together, and I expect that to happen before the end of the summertime.

你能再详细说说，为什么非得是夏天结束前吗？

So explain a little bit more as to why before the end of the summertime.

你为什么觉得加密货币会在那个时间点有动作？

Why why that timeline that you're looking at for crypto?

根据我多年交易市场的经验，所谓市场 regime shift，其实分两种。

So in all my experience of trading markets, when I say a regime shift, there's there's two types of regime shifts.

一种是持续很久的那种，比如疫情结束后，一开始是通缩，接着央行大水漫灌，但大家要过一阵子才意识到通胀来了。

One is, let's say, one that lasts for a long period of time, and that would be something like coming out of COVID, where you go into it, it's a deflationary situation, and then you print money, and it takes a while for people to grasp the inflationary situation.

我早在2020年5月就开始谈疫情后的通胀了，就是因为当时印的钱实在太多了。

I started talking about inflation post COVID in May 2020, and that was because of the enormous amount of money printing.

这次的情况，从某个角度看，跟疫情后很像，也算是一次重大的市场转折。

In this case, I think we're in a COVID type situation from one level that equates this to a regime shift.

如果你去听那些长期交易原油市场的人怎么说，我不确定你有没有请过这类人，但他们都一致提到，他们早就把霍尔木兹海峡的情况建模分析过了。

If you listen to anyone on the oil markets, and I don't know if you've had people on that have traded oil markets for a long time, the one thing they all say as a group is they had all modeled the Strait Of Hormuz.

霍尔木兹海峡对全球经济至关重要。

Strait Of Hormuz is really important to the global economy.

它简直就像一个独立的中央银行。

It's kind of like its own central bank.

石油关乎全世界的运转。

Oil matters to the whole world.

根本不可能摆脱对它的依赖。

There's no way to get off of this.

柴油才是驱动经济的关键。

Diesel drives the economy.

如果全球经济突然出现下滑——我之前提到过，这种迹象已经在日本的建筑市场显现，也在日本和韩国的机械市场出现了。

If all of a sudden, we see a downshift in the global economy, which I said is showing up in Japan with inside the construction market, showing up with inside, the machinery markets both in Japan and in Korea.

这两国都在出现这种情况，而DRAM价格却还在上涨。

This is happening in both countries while the DRAM stuff is still going up.

长期利率正在上升，尤其是在英国和日本。

You've got long term rates which are going higher, and in particular, in The UK and Japan.

我的意思是，我们现在看到的长期收益率，是二十到三十年来的最高水平，而这些国家的债务本来就高得吓人。

I mean, we're talking about twenty five, thirty year highs that we're making in long term yields in countries that have a ton of debt.

这些担忧其实以前都出现过。

These have all been fears at some point.

所以我觉得，一旦市场技术面开始崩溃——不管什么时候发生，可能得持续几周——这就是 regime shift 的开始。

So I think the regime shift is once the technical market starts to break down, whenever that happens, and it can take weeks.

所以我之前说，到夏天结束的时候，情况可能会出现两面性。

That's why I said by the end of the summertime, I think there's a two sided thing here.

一方面，我觉得市场必须得回调一次。

One is I think markets have to have a correction.

但具体会到什么程度，我不确定，因为石油价格会怎么走，谁也说不准。

I don't know to the extent because I don't know what's gonna happen to the oil price.

如果你告诉我油价涨到每桶210美元，那我现在就可以说，股市已经扛不住了，因为那时候我们早就用光了多余的库存，经济增速必然放缓。

If oil if you tell me oil's 2 100, I'm telling you at this point, the stock market can't deal with it anymore because we'd be up at that point, which would also mean slowing growth because we've been using excess inventories.

不过交易的另一方面是，如果美联储按兵不动，突然又有了刺激措施，也就是说，政府开始放开，油价从150或200美元而不是100美元回落，我认为这对大宗商品和比特币都会非常利好，但我认为股市不会立刻上涨，因为大宗商品市场会涨得更多。

The second part of the trade though is if the Fed doesn't move and all of a sudden, there is a stimulus thing, meaning, okay, the government we the straight starts to open up and oil prices come down not from a 100, but they come down from a 150 or 200, I think that's gonna be extremely positive for commodities and extremely positive for bitcoin, but I don't think you're gonna see the stock market immediately go higher because we'll be significantly higher, but in the commodity markets, we will.

股市的另一个方面，我觉得大家开始慢慢理解了，就是市场上会有相当多的新股供应。

One other aspect of the stock market that, I think people are starting to to wrap their head around is there's quite a bit of supply that is coming.

比如SpaceSpace的IPO，还有Anthropic，甚至可能还有OpenAI。

Obviously, SpaceX IPO, there's Anthropic, potentially, OpenAI.

SpaceX肯定是最大、也最实在的一个，因为我们现在已经有星舰了。

And SpaceX is, you know, probably the largest and the one that is most tangible because we we've got the s one now.

跟一些大型私营企业相比，我们大概能猜到他们什么时候会这么做。

We we kinda know, you know, when when they're gonna do this compared to maybe some of the larger private businesses.

但如果市场上供应量大增，再加上宏观环境的影响，虽然很多人非常看好，但也指出未来几个月可能会面临一些阻力。

But if there's tons of supply coming and you've got, you know, kind of the macro environment, there's many people who are quite bullish that are saying, look.

你觉得供应增加会不会成为一个问题？

For the next couple of months, there could be some headwinds here.

你同意供应可能会成为问题吗？

Do you agree that that supply could become an issue?

这一侧的供应量肯定是个问题，至少一开始是这样。

Supply of this side has to be an issue, at least initially.

我觉得，如果这些公司不能这么快就纳入ETF和被动市场，那现在的规则简直是在专门为它们开绿灯。

You know, I think if these names weren't gonna be allowed to go in the ETFs, the passive markets, as quickly as they are, it seems like all the rules are being changed to allow them to go in.

不过，总体来看，对咱们讨论的这个事儿影响可能没那么大。

It probably has a little bit less of an effect, in general for what we'd be talking about.

意思是，如果人们为了买这些新发的股票，不得不抛售标普500之类的资产，那指数和这些股票就会承压。

Meaning, if people have to get out of, let's just say, the S and P 500 because they have to raise cash to go buy these issuances, then it would be negative for the indexes and these stocks would go on.

过去一直都是这么发生的。

That's what normally has happened in the past.

这些数字的规模实在太大了。

So the size of the numbers is huge.

我觉得，只要供应量达到这种级别，就必然会引发市场的疑虑。

I do believe that anytime you have supply this magnitude, it just adds to the question that's in the marketplace.

但看起来，这些供应好像都集中提前释放了。

But it's also gonna it seems like it's being front loaded.

他们几乎是抢着要把这个推出来。

They're almost in a race to get this out.

我觉得这本身也带来不少问题。

And I think there's issues with that as well.

关键问题是，他们为什么这么急着推出？

The question is why are they trying to get it out?

如果你一下子把太多新发产品扔进市场，大家肯定会更犹豫，宁愿再等等看。

If you come to the market with too much issuance, I think it definitely gets people to be a little bit more I can wait a little while before I buy things.

所以接下来三个月，所有时间点凑在一起，难免出问题。

So I think the timing of everything for the next three months just leads to an issue.

我们的预期已经拉得太高了。

We we've got expectations very high.

不管看哪个指标，市场情绪都已经被推回了年初的高点。

We've taken the sentiment back up depending on which risk you know, which indicator you look at, back up towards the highs where we started the year.

我关注的那些指标，也都回到了那个水平。

The ones that I use were back up there.