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当我们最终处于一个人们更关心机构、地缘政治、法币贬值这样的环境时，比特币应该会受益。
When we end up in an environment where people are more concerned about institutions, concerned about geopolitics, concerned about, fiat currency, maybe, debasement, Bitcoin should benefit.
这种环境下，股票和债券通常表现也不太好。
That's also an environment where stocks and bonds tend to generally not do so well.
所以我们相信，比特币这种根本性的分散化特性依然存在，即使过去几年投资者群体可能有所变化。
So that fundamental diversifying nature of Bitcoin, we believe, still very much holds, even as the investor base has maybe shifted over the last few years.
大家好，最近怎么样？
What's going on, guys?
今天我们和Jay Jacobs进行了一次很棒的对话。
We had a great conversation today with Jay Jacobs.
他是贝莱德美国股票ETF的主管。
He is The US head of equity ETFs at BlackRock.
他是把ETF引入这个行业的大人物之一。
He's one of the big dogs who has brought ETFs into the industry.
他们显然是iBIT的拥有者，并且把它带到了市场上，做得非常出色。
They obviously are the iBIT owners, and they've brought that to the market, done a fantastic job.
但在这次对话中，我们聊了比特币和加密货币市场。
But in this conversation, we talk about Bitcoin, the crypto market.
现在情况怎么样？
What's going on?
为什么人们要把资金配置到这些结构里？
Why are people allocating to these structures?
除此之外，我们还聊了人工智能、所有基础设施、整个价值链，他们对AI下一阶段的看法，以及投资者实际上是如何配置资本的。
On top of that, talk about AI, all the infrastructure, the entire value chain, what they think about the next leg of AI, and how investors are actually allocating their capital.
我觉得这次对话真的很有意思，因为它不仅能帮你更好地理解这些主题、这些技术和这些机会，还能让你明白为什么ETF会这么快崛起，为什么它们在人们的投资组合中变得这么受欢迎。
I think this conversation is really interesting because it's gonna help you better understand not only these themes, these technologies, and these opportunities, but it's also a little bit as to why ETFs have risen so quickly, why they've become so popular in people's portfolio.
而且我觉得，如果你听完整个对话，你不仅会对Jay印象深刻，还会发现很多值得去研究和可能放进你投资组合的机会。
And I think if you listen to the entire thing, not only will you walk away and be impressed by Jay, but I also think that you're gonna find a lot of opportunities to go and investigate and maybe put into your portfolio.
所以，这就是我和Jay Jacobs的对话。
So here's my conversation with Jay Jacobs.
好的，Jay。
Alright, Jay.
比特币ETF看起来是有史以来最成功的ETF产品。
The Bitcoin ETFs are the most successful ETF product ever launched, it seems.
你们是先行者。
You guys were a pioneer.
我记得你们提交ETF申请的时候，我就说过，这个会被批准的，而且对行业来说可能会是件大事。
I remember when you guys filed for the ETF, I said, we're gonna get it approved, and, that's probably gonna be a pretty big deal for the industry.
现在回头看，这些ETF对比特币行业实际产生了哪些可衡量的影响？
When you look back now, what has been the actual measurable impact on the Bitcoin industry from these ETFs?
我觉得最大的影响就是现在有更多的人可以参与比特币生态系统了。
I think the biggest impact has just been the amount of people that can now participate in the Bitcoin ecosystem.
想想在这些ETF出现之前，人们得去数字资产交易所注册。
So if you think about before these ETFs existed, people had to go sign up on a digital asset exchange.
这对很多人来说是个障碍。
That was a friction for many individuals.
对很多机构来说，这甚至是一种禁令，因为它们没有这个能力，或者对很多财务顾问或RIA来说，即使有能力，也需要经历一个极其漫长和繁琐的过程来搭建数字资产交易所的所有基础设施，但他们在对比特币的信心方面还没有到位。
That was a prohibition for many institutions that didn't have that ability or just an incredibly long and arduous process for even many financial advisers or RIAs that had the ability to do that and set up all the plumbing for digital asset exchanges, but just they weren't there yet from a conviction behind Bitcoin perspective.
所以一旦像iBIT这样的比特币ETP推出，就变得像在券商账户上点个按钮一样容易，就像买标普500或买个股一样。
So once the Bitcoin ETPs like iBIT came out, it just made it as easy to access as clicking a button on a brokerage account just like you buy the S and P 500 or buy an individual stock.
这意味着个人投资者，更多人能够接触到追踪比特币的工具。
And so what that meant was individual investors, so many more had access to, vehicle tracking Bitcoin.
财务顾问们也逐渐获得了准入，因为我们看到很多财务顾问平台批准了IBET，而且坦白说也批准了以太坊或以太币ETF。
Financial advisers over time got access because we saw a lot of financial adviser platforms approve IBET and frankly approve Ether or Ethereum ETF as well.
机构现在突然也有了一个流动性很强的工具来表达他们的观点。
And institutions now suddenly had a very liquid vehicle to express their views as well.
所以它增加了准入渠道。
So it increased access.
我认为它带来的另一个影响是，在iBit之前，很多顾问和机构可以回避比特币这个话题。
What I think it also did was before iBit, many advisers and institutions could kind of avoid the Bitcoin conversation.
就像，他们觉得，我不能忽视它。
Like, they it was like, I can't Ignore it.
他们他们买不了它。
They they couldn't buy it.
所以，你知道，这些机构里的人总是忙得不可开交。
So, you know, everyone has so much on their plate at all times in these institutions.
那你是花时间学习比特币，还是花时间考虑股票和债券之间的资产配置呢？
So are you gonna spend time learning about Bitcoin, or are gonna spend time thinking about, like, your asset allocation between stocks and bonds?
我觉得很多人选择了后者。
I think a lot of them focused on the latter.
一旦通过iBit可以投资比特币，这就成了他们思考这个资产类别时不得不讨论的话题。
Once exposure to Bitcoin became available to them with iBit, it had to be a part of the conversation of how do they think about this asset class?
它适合放进他们的投资组合吗？
Does it fit in their portfolio?
在更广泛的投资组合中配置比特币，他们能得到什么？
What are they getting when they allocate to Bitcoin in a broader portfolio?
所以，这确实加速了世界上一些最成熟机构内部的这些讨论。
And so it just really accelerated those conversations within some of the most sophisticated institutions in the world.
看起来比特币的波动性已经收窄了。
It seems like Bitcoin's volatility has compressed.
它以前是个高波动资产。
It was, you know, vol asset.
现在它的波动率大概在35到40之间。
Now it's like a 35, 40 vol asset.
我听有人说这是因为华尔街整体参与进来了。
I have heard people claim that it's because just Wall Street's participating in general.
也有人说是因为ETF。
Some people say it's the ETF.
还有人说不，
Some people say, no.
其实是因为上面叠加了各种杠杆、期权和其他工具。
It's actually all of the leverage and options and various other instruments being put on top of it.
你们怎么看比特币的波动率一直在压缩这件事？它会继续压缩下去吗？人们应该把它看作比特币未来故事的一部分吗？
Do you guys have a view as to, like, why Bitcoin's volatility has been, compressing, and will it continue to compress and people should think of that as part of, like, the Bitcoin story going forward?
你知道，我觉得我们没有统一的答案，但肯定有几个因素起了作用。
You know, I I don't think we have a a universal answer, but I think a few factors have certainly contributed.
你知道，首先，随着ETP的建立，以及围绕ETP的期权市场的发展，人们参与比特币的方式更多了，这让市场更加稳健。
You know, one, with the build out of of the ETPs, with the build out of the options market around the ETPs, it's created more ways for people to participate in in Bitcoin, and that creates a more robust market.
所以当人们需要流动性，或者想进行更复杂的交易时，现在有市场可以支撑这些，因为有了iBIN。
So when there's, when when people are looking for liquidity or people are looking to put on more complex trades, there's just there's a market that can support that now because of iBIN.
这应该有助于降低一些波动性。
So that should help reduce some of the volatility.
其次，我觉得，因为更多人能参与进来，研究更多了，信心更足了，长期买家也进入了这个领域，他们可以平衡那些可能在做短期波段交易的人。
I think secondly, again, because more people can participate in it, there's more research, there's more conviction, there's more long term buyers that have come into the space that can be kind of the counterbalance to people who are maybe doing more short term strider trading strategies.
这也帮助降低了波动性。
That has helped reduce volatility as well.
但总的来说，更多人参与一个流动性更强、更稳健的市场，有助于降低波动性。
But overall, having more people participate in a more liquid, more robust market can help bring down, volatility.
现在当我们看到很多波动性压缩的情况，我觉得有很多人不是华尔街的，也不是机构圈子的。
Now when we look at a lot of that volatility compression, I think that there was a bunch of people who were not part of Wall Street, not part of the institutional world.
他们对比特币非常兴奋，坦白说，因为它是在系统之外的，而且波动性极大，非常不对称。
They were very excited about Bitcoin, frankly, because it was outside the system, and it was super volatile, and it was very asymmetric.
我朋友Jordy Visser经常提到一个概念，叫“无声的IPO”。
My friend, Jordy Visser, talks a lot about, like, this idea of a silent IPO.
他的大致想法是，如果一家私人公司上市，通常会有所有权的转移。
And his general thought process is if you have a private company and it goes public, there's usually some transfer of ownership.
私募市场的投资者和早期员工，在某个时点会卖出，然后公司会迎来新的股东。
The private market investors and the early employees, at some point, they're selling, and you get kind of new shareholders in the company.
他的观点是，比特币在过去一两年里也经历了类似的过程，而ETF可能在其中扮演了重要角色，让新类型的投资者得以进入。
His argument is that Bitcoin's kind of gone through that over the last, you know, year or two, and the ETFs have probably been a big part of that story of allowing access for a new type of investor.
现在感觉比特币对利率的敏感度确实高了很多。
It does feel like Bitcoin now is much more interest rate sensitive.
它和某些资产的关联度也更高了。
It trades with higher correlations to certain assets.
比特币的一些特性确实发生了变化。
Like, things have kinda changed about Bitcoin.
那么，当你们和机构投资者或这些ETF的参与者交流时，他们是怎么看待比特币，相对于其他资产的呢？
And so when you guys are talking to institutional investors or or kind of the folks that you have in these ETFs, how are they thinking about Bitcoin compared to maybe other assets?
而以前那些人呢，他们会说，比特币就是我百分之百的投资组合。
Whereas the people before, they're like, Bitcoin is like a 100% of my portfolio.
我才不管美联储在干嘛，或者通胀报告怎么样。
I don't care what the Fed is doing or, you know, what's going on with the inflation report.
我猜现在持有ETF的人，他们真的很在意这些东西。
I have to imagine the people holding the ETF, they really care about a lot of that stuff.
所以我觉得你说的有些点我是同意的。
So I think I agree with some of those points.
确实，现在参与比特币的投资者群体已经变了，ETF在其中起了很大的作用。
Certainly, investor base, involved in Bitcoin now has shifted, and ETFs have played a huge role in that.
你会看到更多长期买入并持有的人参与进来，比如那些有模型投资组合的财务顾问，他们的策略会更偏战略性，还有那些长期买入并持有的机构。
You see more people participating who tend to be long term buy and hold from those financial advisers that have model portfolios that are gonna be more kind of strategic in nature to the institutions that are long term buy and hold.
所以所有权结构确实变了。
So the the ownership mix has certainly changed.
就像我们说的，这可能对波动性产生了影响。
And like we said, that probably had an impact on volatility.
但我们认为比特币的基本特性并没有改变，尤其是在长期来看。
But we don't believe that the fundamental characteristics of Bitcoin have shifted, particularly over the long run.
它本质上仍然是一种去中心化的全球货币替代品，不受特定政府控制，可以非常自由地跨境交易。
That inherently, it is still a global monetary alternative that is decentralized, that is not governed by, by by specific government, that can transact very freely across borders.
比特币的这种基本性质仍然是其价值的主要驱动力，坦白说，也是它相对于股票和债券应该如何表现的关键。
And that fundamental nature of Bitcoin is still what drives the majority of its value and, frankly, how it should behave relative to stocks and bonds.
当我们处于一个人们更担心机构、地缘政治、法币可能贬值的环境中时，比特币应该会受益。
When we end up in an environment where people are more concerned about institutions, concerned about geopolitics, concerned about, fiat currency, maybe, debasement, Bitcoin should benefit.
这种环境通常也是股票和债券表现不佳的时候。
That's also an environment where stocks and bonds tend to generally not do so well.
所以，我们认为比特币的基本分散化特性仍然非常有效，即使过去几年投资者结构可能发生了变化。
So that fundamental diversifying nature of Bitcoin, we believe still very much holds, even as the investor base has maybe shifted over the last few years.
从企业战略的角度来看，我认为实际上有三件事可以做。
Now from a corporate strategy standpoint, I think there's really three things you can do.
你可以选择观望，然后说，嘿。
You can sit out and just say, hey.
你看。
Look.
我们完全不参与。
We're not gonna participate whatsoever.
你可以说，我们在支持的币种数量上会有很大的广度，有些公司支持比特币、以太坊、Solana，还有他们自己都没听说过的币，说实话。
You can say, we are going to have a lot of breadth in terms of the number of coins we're gonna support, and there's some firms that are out there with Bitcoin, ETH, Solana, and then coins they never even heard of before, frankly.
或者你可以只专注于极少数币种，做得很深入。
Or you can go really deep with a very small number.
看起来你们公司的策略就是最后那种。
And it seems like that last one has been your guys' strategy.
你们有比特币和以太坊，但你们也有一些收益产品。
You guys have Bitcoin and ETH, but you also have some income.
你们有质押的和未质押的，还有一些不同的变体。
You've got some staked and unstaked and and kind of different variations.
你能谈谈，当你们坐在产品开发室或开会的时候，你们是怎么考虑哪些是任务范围内的？
Can you just talk about you know, when you're sitting in, like, the product development room or meeting, how are you guys thinking about what is, you know, part of the mandate?
然后可能还有一些你们觉得，看，
And then maybe some of the things that you're like, look.
那些机会就让别人去追吧。
We'll let other people kinda go after those opportunities.
嗯，我觉得一个重要的出发点是，记住，比特币和以太坊加起来占了整个数字资产市值的三分之二到四分之三。
Well, I think an important starting point is, remember, Bitcoin and Ethereum make up anywhere between two thirds and three quarters of the whole digital asset market cap.
所以这两个资产本身就承载了巨大的价值。
So a tremendous amount of value just in those two assets.
而且我们在数字资产被更广泛金融生态接纳的这条路上，还处于非常早期的阶段。
And we're still so early in this journey for digital asset adoption in the broader financial ecosystem.
所以我们的重点一直是，你知道，我们拥有全球最大、流动性最强的比特币ETP。
So our focus has been you know, we have the largest most liquid Bitcoin, ETP on on the planet.
我们还有一个质押以太坊的ETP，也是最大、流动性最强的。
We have a staked Ethereum ET ETP that's the largest most liquid.
我们有一个，抱歉。
We have a sorry.
我们还有一个非质押版本的ETH。
We have an unstaked version, ETH.
我们有一个质押版本的ETHB，为投资者提供额外的收益来源。
We have a staked version, ETHB, that provides an additional income stream for investors.
所以对我们来说，现在更重要的是专注于最大的领域，我们认为教育、资产配置以及拥有流动性强的工具，会对投资者产生巨大的影响。
So for us, it's much more about playing in the biggest buckets right now, where we think education, where we think portfolio allocation, and having really liquid tools is gonna make a huge difference for investors.
不过你说得完全对。
You're absolutely right, though.
我们确实也研究过这些资产的不同形式。
We have kind of looked at different flavors of some of these assets.
所以今年早些时候我们推出了ETHB，这是一个质押版以太坊ETP，这个决定很重要，目的是让人们能够通过ETP结构参与质押。
So, our bringing out ETHB, which is a staked Ethereum, ETP, earlier this year was a big decision to kind of allow for people to participate in staking through ETP structure.
然后我们还推出了BidA，这实际上是比特币敞口，其中大约30%的敞口通过备兑看涨期权覆盖，为投资者创造高收益。
And then we also brought out BidA, which is effectively, Bitcoin exposure with about 30% of that exposure overwritten with covered calls to generate a high income stream for investors.
这很大程度上是受到客户反馈的推动，客户对比特币感兴趣。
And a lot of that was driven by client feedback, that clients are interested in Bitcoin.
他们看好长期的故事，但比特币是零息、零收益的资产，这有时让它很难融入一个非常依赖现金流的投资组合。
They like the long term story, but the fact that it's a zero coupon, zero yielding asset, makes it sometimes hard to fit in a portfolio that can be very kind of cash flow based.
所以，通过期权策略给它附加现金流，可以帮助人们仍然保持比特币的多头头寸，同时还能获得收入流的实用性。
And so attaching a cash flow to it through an option strategy can help people still have largely a long position in Bitcoin, but also get the utility of having an income stream from it.
那实物申购和赎回呢？
What about, in kind, kind of contributions or or creation?
这在早期并不是审批流程的一部分，但现在既然已经进入了，似乎有很多大户在说，你看。
That was not part of the approval process early on, but now that it has, kind of entered, it seems like there are a lot of large holders who are saying, look.
有一种便捷的证券方式。
There is some sort of easy access security.
这肯定在私下讨论中出现过。
It's been definitely in private conversations.
很多人都在谈论冷钱包被黑或者物理安全之类的问题。
A lot of people are talking about cold card hacks or just physical security, whatever.
我是不是持有ETF比持有比特币更好？我觉得那些比特币的忠实拥护者会理所当然地说，这有点违背比特币的精神。
Am I better off holding the ETF than the Bitcoin, which I think the hardcore Bitcoiners rightfully so are like, well, that's kind of against the Bitcoin ethos.
那些和潜在或现有的ETF持有者的对话是什么样的？
What are those conversations like with, with with potential or actual ETF holders?
当我们最初推出iBit时，从监管角度来看，我们无法进行实物交易，但后来情况有所发展，我们现在能够进行实物交易了，也就是说，通过各种第三方，持有足够BTC的人可以有效地将其兑换成iBit。
When we when we first launched iBit, we weren't able to do in kind from a regulatory perspective, but that had evolved and and we're able to do in kind transactions, meaning, through various third parties, someone who owns enough BTC can effectively kind of exchange that for iBit.
我同意你的看法。
I was with you.
我原本以为这更多是关于安全性的问题，那些自己持有BTC的人会想，你知道，不想再这样做了。
I I thought this was more of kind of a security piece that people who are holding their own BTC are gonna think, you know, don't wanna do this anymore.
我宁愿有机构级别的托管。
I'd rather have institutional level of custody.
但我们了解到，这当然是其中的一部分，但更大的部分实际上是能够将比特币金融化。
But, what we've learned is that's certainly a part of it, but a bigger piece of it is actually the ability to kind of financialize Bitcoin.
用它来借款对于长期持有比特币但财富大部分被套牢的人来说是一个巨大的用例，他们想买房或买车。
Borrow against it is a huge use case for people who are long Bitcoin, but have so much of their wealth tied up in it, and they wanna buy a house or buy a car.
能够用它来借款是一个重要的部分。
Being able to borrow against it is a is a big piece.
那些想叠加不同期权策略的人。
People who want to overlay different option strategies.
如果你在比特币上赚了很多钱，或者你的净资产大部分都在比特币里，你可能确实想要某种保护性的期权策略，或者在上面加一个收入策略，或者你想做某种交易所复制，这样可以降低你的比特币风险，同时增加对类似标普500指数的敞口。
If you've made a lot of money in Bitcoin or have a lot of your net worth in Bitcoin, maybe you do want some sort of protective, option strategy or an income strategy on top of it, or you wanna do some sort of exchange replication where you can kind of reduce your Bitcoin risk and get more exposure to something like the S and P 500.
一旦它被放在像iBit这样的框架里，你就可以通过不同的金融平台做更多的事情。
Once it sits within a wrapper like iBit, there's a lot more you can do with it, through different, financial platforms.
所以这成了实物交易需求的一个主要推动力。
So that's been a big driver of the in kind, appetite.
另外，实物交易的最低门槛也大幅降低了。
Also, just the the minimums for in kind transactions have come down substantially.
现在，一笔实物交易的门槛大概在150万到200万美元左右。
So right now, it's sort of at the one and a half, two million dollar level for an in kind transaction.
以前这个门槛要高得多，所以这真的让更多人有机会参与进来。
Previously, it was much higher than that, and so that's really kind of opened the pool to more people to participate in that.
你们发布了一个年中主题更新。
You guys put out this, kind of midyear thematic update.
在那份报告里，你们聊了很多关于AI的内容，我觉得以前大家可能觉得AI有点抢了比特币的风头。
In it, you guys talk about a lot of AI stuff, and I think that, there was a belief previously that AI was kinda stealing the show from Bitcoin.
我觉得现在可能两者之间更平衡一些了，可以这么说。
I think now maybe there's a little bit more kind of even ground, if you will.
大家显然都相信政府会继续印钱。
People obviously are convinced the government's gonna keep printing money.
宏观环境和全球流动性方面还有一些疑问，所以比特币有点重新崛起了，推动了价格，你知道的，我觉得这两件事是有关联的。
There's some questions around the macro environment and global liquidity, and so Bitcoin has kind of, like, reemerged, helps the price, you know, and kind of those two things I think are related.
AI仍然是一个巨大的话题，而且我觉得AI现在可能正在推动美国经济。
AI is still a massive story, and I think AI is probably driving The US economy right now.
从框架的角度来看，你会怎么看待AI行业，毕竟它有很多不同的组成部分？
How do you maybe, from a framework standpoint, look at the AI industry given there's so many different components here?
说到你的观点，我们在贝莱德几个月来一直在说，AI实际上已经成为一个宏观因素，也就是说，通常人们会看GDP增长之类的指标。
So and and to your point, we at BlackRock have been saying now for a few months that AI has effectively become a macro factor, in the sense that usually people look at things like GDP growth.
他们会看利率。
They look at interest rates.
现在他们把AI的采用看作最大的影响因素之一，对。
Now they look at AI adoption as one of the biggest Yeah.
对市场走势的影响。
Influences on what's happening in the markets.
确实是这样。
It's true, though.
如果AI放缓，市场会感受到。
If AI slows down, the markets will feel it.
如果AI加速，市场会受益。
If AI accelerates, the markets will enjoy it.
它就是这么重要，尤其是对美国市场，从整体价格水平来看。
Like, it is that important to especially The US markets in terms of, overall price levels.
所以，在这次主题年中更新中，我们做的就是，很多人大概知道我们现在在AI方面的进展。
So, what we did with this thematic midyear update was, you know, a lot of people kind of know where we are with AI today.
这次更多是展望未来，看事情会怎么发展，包括一些挑战、AI建设中的瓶颈，以及下一阶段，当我们从这种大规模资本支出热潮转向推理和采用热潮时，可以期待什么。
This is much more looking at the future of where things are going to evolve, some of the challenges, some of the bottlenecks in the build out of AI, some of the next phases in terms of what can we expect once we move out of this kind of major CapEx boom into more of a inference and, an adoption boom.
而且说实话，你知道，这对不同行业意味着什么呢？
And frankly, you know, what what does this mean for different industries?
我觉得太多人仍然把AI看作一个科技主题。
Too many people, I think, still view AI as a tech theme.
很多科技公司都在开发AI，但它其实是一个医疗健康主题。
A lot of the tech companies are building AI, but it's a health care theme.
它也是一个法律主题。
It's a legal theme.
它也是一个消费主题。
It's a consumer theme.
它基本上会以某种方式触及每一个行业或领域，我们必须在投资组合中开始考虑这一点。
It's gonna touch basically every industry or sector in one way or another, and we have to start thinking about that in across our portfolios.
比如说，你投资了一个医疗健康基金，并不意味着你就一定脱离了AI交易。
Just because you allocate to a health care fund, for example, doesn't mean you've necessarily, moved away from the AI trade.
本期节目由Lava赞助播出。
This episode is brought to you by Lava.
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The Lava Card is the first credit card that allows you to earn up to 5% back in Bitcoin on every single purchase.
大多数信用卡都有高昂的年费和复杂的积分计划，但Lava卡提供了更好的选择。
Most cards have steep annual fees and unclear points programs, but the Lava Card offers a much better deal.
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Earn real Bitcoin every time that you spend.
而且，没有年费。
Plus, there's no annual fee.
国际消费时，零外汇手续费，零汇率差价。
There's zero FX fees and zero spread when you spend internationally.
此外，Lava还提供比特币信用额度、现金收益、即时稳定币存取款，以及银行账户的进出通道，还有更多功能。
On top of that, Lava gives you access to a Bitcoin line of credit, yield on cash, instant stablecoin deposits and withdrawals, on and off ramps to and from your bank account, and much, much more.
使用Lava，你可以以最低利率借入比特币，赚取收益，全球转账，并且每次购物都能积累比特币。
With Lava, you can borrow against your Bitcoin at the lowest rates, earn yield, move money globally, and stack Bitcoin with each and every purchase you make.
大多数金融服务通过高额费用和复杂的奖励计划来压榨你。
Most financial services squeeze you with high fees, confusing rewards programs.
Lava 让一切变得简单，他们帮你通过日常消费来积累长期储蓄。
Lava keeps it simple, and they help you build your long term savings via your everyday spend.
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Visit lava.xyz/pomp to get started in just a few minutes today.
lava.xyz/pomp，今天就开始吧。
Lava.xyz/pomp to get started today.
我觉得这很有意思，因为科技界对 AI 的反应很早，毕竟他们离技术进步最近。
It's fascinating to me because I think, the tech community was very early to the AI stuff because they're kinda closest to, to the advancements.
但科技行业在提供资本时，思维方式非常偏向长期持有，也就是基于股权的思路。
But the tech industry is very much long only, you know, kind of, equity based thought process when it comes to providing capital.
这是那种同时涉及软件和硬件的趋势之一。
This is one of those trends where you have software and hardware.
而且说到硬件，你做的可不是什么小玩意儿。
When you get to hardware, it's not like a a trinket that you're building either.
那是发电、数据中心、芯片这些。
It is power generation, data centers, chips.
你知道，你得把整个产业链都过一遍。
You know, you kinda go through this whole stack.
所以现在你谈的是房地产。
And so now you're talking about real estate.
你谈的是债务。
You're talking about debt.
你谈的是股权。
You're talking about equity.
你谈的是对冲风险。
You're talking about hedging exposures.
我的意思是，你开始想，等等。
I mean, you start to then play, well, wait a minute.
不是所有公司都在美国。
Not all the companies are in America.
我得去了解一家在韩国或日本的公司，或者世界任何地方的公司。
I've got to go learn about a company in South Korea or in Japan or, you know, wherever in the world.
所以确实感觉金融化也在科技和金融领域逐渐显现出来。
And so it does feel like the financialization is actually emerging as well of tech and finance.
这两者几乎要融合在一起了，大家都在说，我需要像了解技术怎么运作一样，去了解公司是怎么融资的，以及有哪些不同的工具可用。
It's almost coming together, and people are saying, like, I need to be as smart on how are companies being funded and what are the different tools available as I need to be on, like, just how does technology work?
对我来说，这首先是一个机会。
And that to me feels like, one, it's an opportunity.
如果你能快速跟上节奏，你就能占据一些优势。
If you get up to speed quickly, you can, you know, kind of have an advantage.
但我之前提到过，在大公司里这非常困难，因为你几乎要把不同专业背景的团队聚在一起，共同解决这些问题。
But I kind of mentioned it's super difficult inside of a a large firm because you're almost bringing together different teams with different expertise and trying to collaborate on these problems.
嗯，我觉得这正是像贝莱德这样的地方的巨大优势之一，它可以审视像人工智能这样的整个资本结构，试图理解哪里有機會，贝莱德及其客户能在哪些方面发挥作用。
Well, I think this is one of the incredible benefits of a place like BlackRock is it can look at the entire capital stack of something like artificial intelligence and try to understand kind of where's the opportunities, where can BlackRock and its clients play a role.
但你说得对。
But you're right.
当你谈论一个涉及数万亿美元的主题时，比如人工智能所需的资本支出，以及人工智能潜在的经济影响，这不一定只是美国大盘股的投资机会。
When you when you talk about a theme that's in the trillions of dollars, which is where artificial intelligence is in terms of the capital expenditures that are needed, the potential economic impact of artificial intelligence, it's going to it's it's it's not necessarily just a US large cap equity play.
这会广泛得多。
It's gonna be much broader.
我们现在在股票生态系统中就能看到这一点。
We see that just within the equity ecosystem right now.
所以我们构建了AI价值链这个概念，试图识别这个价值链中的不同公司和不同层级。
So we, sort of built out this concept of the AI value chain and trying to identify the different companies and the different layers of this value chain.
从电力公司和数据中心（属于房地产领域）到芯片制造商，再到数据所有者、大语言模型开发者、采用人工智能的应用，以及支持人工智能的平台。
And it runs from power companies and and data centers in the real estate space to chip manufacturers to data owners to large language model developers, applications that are adopting artificial intelligence, platforms that are enabling it.
我们突然发现全球有几十家公司正在参与人工智能，跨越了各个行业。
We're suddenly in the dozens of companies globally that are participating in artificial intelligence across a whole range of sectors.
所以我们跟客户做的很多教育就是告诉他们，你今天看到的是科技主题。
So a lot of the education that we're doing with clients is saying, you see this as a tech theme today.
明天这就不只是科技主题了，要大得多。
This is much bigger than a tech theme tomorrow.
真的要放眼整个价值链，去理解最好的机会在哪里。
Really look across the entire value chain to understand where the best opportunities are.
事实上，我们认为目前一些最好的机会其实在科技领域之外。
And in fact, some of the best opportunities we think sort of sit outside of tech right now.
比如一些物理限制、材料和公用事业，还有房地产领域。你知道，软件很容易扩展规模，
Some of these physical constraints and materials and utilities, in real estate where, you know, it's it's easy to scale a software.
它没有额外的成本，但计算能力就不那么容易扩展了，因为它有巨大的物理足迹。
It doesn't have any incremental cost, but it's not so easy to scale compute, which has a tremendous physical footprint.
当你看这个行业时，我们显然看到，比如DRAM ETF，这是历史上最成功的ETF发行。
When you're looking at, this sector, we obviously see let's take an example of, the DRAM ETF, best ETF launch in history.
大家都对它非常兴奋。
Everyone's all excited about it.
对我来说，我有点惊讶，这样一个非常具体的、垂直的ETF应用，竟然只针对少数几家公司。
To me, I think I was a little surprised at such a specific, you know, kind of vertical application of ETF into a very small number of companies.
但我觉得，作为市场观察者，人们已经分析出一些原因，比如提供准入渠道，以及做各种不同的事情。
But there's some reasons I think people have unpacked just as kind of market observers of you're giving access and and kind of doing these different things.
你认为这些投资工具能细分到什么程度？
How fragmented do you think these investment vehicles can get?
比如，内存是一部分，但如果你能细分到几乎具体的组件，那可能会有成千上万种，对吧，就看你怎么定义了。
Like, memory is one piece, but, like, if you're gonna be able to go down to almost specific, you know, components, I mean, there could be thousands, right, depending on how you know, okay.
那太空呢？
Well, what about the space?
数据中心呢？
What about data centers?
芯片呢？
What about chips?
所有这些呢？
What about all of this?
比如，芯片里面，液冷芯片呢？
Like, within chips, what about liquid cooled chips?
还有那些东西，你们怎么看这种能细分到具体领域，还是更偏向宏观主题或行业主题的能力？
What about, you know, all the stuffs like, how do you guys think about the the ability to drill down into specificity versus maybe more like macro themes or like industry themes?
嗯，我们对创新的思考方式主要基于三大支柱。
Well, a lot of the way that we think about innovation is is based off of three pillars.
第一，这是否解决了客户的需求？
One is, is this solving a client need?
这是否让你接触到价值链中其他方式难以触及的部分，或者我们需要定义这部分价值链？
Is this, you know, exposure to to a piece of the value chain that is otherwise hard to get exposure to, or do we need to define this part of the value chain?
主题ETF的很多价值，坦白说，就在于定义主题是什么，涉及哪些公司，这可以成为投资者一个非常重要的进入工具。
A lot of the value of thematic ETFs is really, frankly, defining what is the theme, what are the companies involved in it, and that can be a really important access vehicle for investors.
我觉得第二点是，是否有正的预期回报？
I think the second thing is, is there positive expected return?
这对投资组合是否有用？
Is this gonna have utility to portfolios?
你可以把东西归在一起，但如果它没有价值，那对我们的客户也没帮助。
You you could bucket things together, but if it's not worth anything, that's not really gonna help our clients either.
第三点，其实就是质量保证。
And the third is really a stamp of quality.
我们能否围绕这种策略或敞口构建一个好的ETF？
Can we build a good ETF around this type of strategy or exposure?
当你深入到人工智能的子子主题，只有少数几家公司时，它就不再像ETF了，实际上在很大程度上也无法以ETF的形式实现。
And when you get really narrow into the sub sub themes of artificial intelligence and there's only a couple of names, it doesn't really resemble an ETF anymore, and in fact, largely is not doable in an ETF anymore.
它看起来更像是一个很小的、细分的篮子。
And it looks a little bit more like, you know, just a very kind of small granular basket.
所以我们在贝莱德的思考方式就是这三个支柱：客户的使用场景、对投资组合的影响，以及我们能推出的产品质量。
So the way we think about it at BlackRock is really those three pillars, the the client use case, the portfolio impact, and the quality of a product we can bring out.
回到内存，内存是整个AI价值链中非常重要的一部分，而且今天它确实非常重要。
Back to memory, memory is a super important part of the whole AI value chain, and it's a really important part today.
明天，价值链可能会有不同的机会领域。
Tomorrow, the value chain could have a different area of opportunity.
可能是在大宗商品领域。
It could be in the commodity space.
如果铜短缺，可能一切都围绕铜。
It could all be about copper if we have copper shortages.
所以我们处理这个问题的方式是，我们确实有细分的ETF。
So the way that we've approached this is, we do have granular ETFs.
我们确实有一只铜矿ETF，叫iCOP。
We do have a copper mining ETF, iCOP.
但对很多客户来说，他们就是想要一个主动管理人替他们做决定，比如现在想投内存，就投那些内存公司，或者想转到电力领域，因为那里有机会，然后真正替客户调整投资组合，这样他们就不用自己去研究、去把握交易时机了。
But for many clients, they just want an active manager to sit on top of this and decide for them, I wanna be in memory now, and I wanna be in these memory companies, or I wanna move into the power space because that's where the opportunity is, and really adjust that portfolio for clients on their behalf so that they don't have to try to research and time these trades themselves.
这确实感觉像是短缺。
It does feel like take a shortage.
在很多行业里，一旦出现短缺，人们就会有动力进来投入资本，解决这个短缺。
In many industries, when there is a shortage, people are incentivized to come in and bring in capital investment and solve the shortage.
价格上涨的全部意义就在于这种经济激励。
That is the whole point of the price going up is this economic incentive.
所以如果这种情况持续下去，几乎就有这么一种想法：你们得去预测或者思考，下一个短缺会是什么，或者下一个领域是什么。
And so if that is going to continue, there's almost this idea of you all have to kind of predict or or think about, like, what is the next shortage or what is the next area?
但也许也正因为你们够大，资源够多，公司有足够的洞察力和智慧，所以你们就直接说，行。
But maybe also just you're big enough and you have enough resources and the firm has enough insights and and intelligence where you're just like, okay.
那我们干脆为整个价值链都开发产品吧。
Why don't we just go and build products for the whole value chain?
然后随着那些微观趋势或者轮动出现，我们什么都能覆盖。
And then as the, like, you know, kind of micro trends or or rotations happen, we can serve everything.
我们不用老是追着市场跑。
We don't have to constantly be trying to, like, play catch up to to this.
我觉得如果资源够的话，最后那种策略肯定要好得多。
I I would assume that last strategy is much better when you've got the resources to do it.
对，我们也在这么做。
So so we're doing that too.
你知道吗，我们有个电力ETF，叫POWR。
You know, we have a power ETF, POWR.
这个ETF专门关注那些真正在提供燃料、发电、配电，并且能从人工智能中受益的公司。
That's just looking at companies that are really trying to provide the fuels, the power generation, the power distribution that could benefit from artificial intelligence.
我们还有个数字基础设施ETF，叫IDGT，关注的是那些会因为数据中心需求增加而受益的房地产。
We have a digital infrastructure ETF, IDGT, that's looking at the real estate that is gonna benefit from more need for data centers.
所以我们确实是从价值链的各个细分领域来看的，但你也可以一直往更细的方向去分。
So we we do look at this at a at a kind of a sleeve basis across the value chain, but you could always take it narrower and narrower and narrower.
在某个时候，我们必须在贝莱德的框架内做出决定。
At some point, we have to say within the BlackRock wall.
所以，你知道，这就是我们认为在ETF中可行且对客户有价值的精确度。
So if, you know, this is kind of the the amount of precision that we think is doable in an ETF and valuable to clients.
所以我们有BAI这种一站式解决方案。
So we we have kind of the one ticker solution with BAI.
那是主动管理型AI ETF。
That's the actively managed AI ETF.
然后我们有价值链上的各个部分，比如POWER、IDGT、还有Copper、iCop，这样人们如果想自己操作，就可以更精细地选择。
And then we have the sleeves of that value chain like POWER, like IDGT, like Copper, iCop, that allow people to get more granular if they wanna play it themselves.
你提到的关于瓶颈和供应链困难的那个点。
Your your point on, your your point though on the on the on the choke points, on the, on the difficulties with the supply chain.
我认为这是当今人工智能领域最大的不匹配之处。
This is where I think the biggest, mismatch is in artificial intelligence today.
因为在大语言模型的开发中，它们正在为自己编写代码来改进模型。
Because what's happening on the large language model development is they're writing the the large language models are writing code for themselves to improve the models.
这正在全天候持续发生。
This is happening constantly around the clock.
需求正在以指数级的速度增长，世界各地的公司在几天、几周内就决定增加对人工智能的投入以及他们要花费的代币。
You have demand accelerating in an exponential way with companies around the world making decisions in days, weeks to up the amount of money they're gonna allocate to artificial intelligence and the tokens they're gonna spend.
但在供应方面，如果我们需要更多的铜来支持更多数据中心的建设或重建美国的电网，你可能要等四到八年才能等到那个铜矿投产。
But on the supply side, if we need more copper to support the build out of more data centers or to rebuild the grid in The United States, you could be looking at four to eight years until that copper mine comes online.
如果你需要更多的铟，因为铜不再是数据中心传输数据的最佳方式，而你需要用光子学和激光来代替，那么你就需要去建一个锌矿，加工锌，铟是锌的副产品，然后这些铟会用于你的激光和光子学设备。
If you need more indium because copper no longer is the best way to transmit data across a data center and you need photonics and lasers to do it instead, you need to go build a zinc mine, process that zinc, a small byproduct of that is indium, and then that's gonna feed into your lasers and photonics.
这也可能需要数年时间。
That could also take years.
即使你只是想制造更多的芯片，你知道，我们只是需要更多的GPU。
Even if you just wanna build more chips, you know, we just we just need more GPUs.
对它的需求太大了。
There's so much demand for it.
我们想加速。
We wanna accelerate.
现在，即使在美国，即使你想加速建设，芯片工厂大概也要四年才能投产。
Today, the fabs take about four years to bring online even in The United States, even if you're trying to accelerate this build out.
所以模型进步得非常快。
So the models are getting much better very quickly.
需求在指数级增长，但供应端却落后了好几年。
The demand is growing at an exponential rate, but the supply side is lagging by years.
我觉得我们很快就能感受到这一点，无论是在投资机会的分布上，还是在某种程度上AI未来的发展方向上。
And I think we're gonna start to feel that in terms of where some of the investment opportunities are, but also maybe in certain ways about how AI evolves from here.
其实这个问题我还真不知道答案。你刚才说的那些，各种股票和策略，基本上都是基于规则的，比较被动。
I actually don't know the answer, to this, which is, everything you're describing, all of the different tickers and strategies are very much, either rules based, kind of passive.
嘿。
Hey.
我们想给你提供敞口，所以我们构建了一个投资组合。
We wanna give you exposure, and we've constructed a portfolio.
但并不是说贝莱德有个人坐在那儿，今天觉得该卖，明天觉得该买，这样更主动地去管理。
But there's not somebody at BlackRock, like, sitting there being like, today, I think we should sell, and tomorrow, I think we should buy, you know, and kind of more actively managing.
你们有没有一些主动管理的基金，涉及这些行业，还是说大部分AI和加密货币的东西本质上都是被动型的？
Do you guys have a a family of active management that are in some of these industries, or or most of, like, the AI and crypto stuff just more kind of passive in nature?
是的。
Yep.
我们绝对有主动管理的。
We absolutely have active.
比如BAI，就是由Tony Kim管理的主动型AI ETF。
So BAIs are actively managed AI ETF run by Tony Kim.
他是一位基本面股票经理，在BlackRock管理科技投资组合多年。
He's a fundamental equities manager who's run technology portfolios at BlackRock for years.
他会做硅谷巴士之旅，拜访所有主要的AI公司。
He does a Silicon Valley bus tour meeting all the major AI companies.
他非常擅长选股，挑选AI公司的投资组合，并且在整个价值链上进行轮动。
He's very much a stock picker picking a portfolio of AI companies, and he's rotating across that value chain.
这和POWER或POWR这样的产品很不一样，那些是基于指数的方法，关注的是为发电提供燃料的公司、发电的公司，以及参与电力分销的公司。
That's very different from something like POWER, POWR, which is, it's an index based methodology that is looking at companies, or or, companies providing the fuel for electric generation, companies generating electricity, and companies involved in the distribution of that electricity.
那是一个指数。
That's an index.
它还是会根据那些指数规则随时间变化，但背后并没有人在做基本面选股。
It can still evolve over time based off of those index rules, but there's not someone behind the scenes kind of doing fundamental stock picking.
所以我们有各种类型的产品。
So we have the whole range.
我觉得这对投资者来说很重要，因为有些人想把那些决策外包给托尼·金和BAI。
And I think that's important for investors because some people wanna outsource those decisions to Tony Kim and BAI.
有些人想自己选，就像你说的，有些人想更细致地自己挑选各个部分。
Some people wanna pick this as you were saying, kind of some people wanna get granular and pick the sleeves themselves.
在很多情况下，基于指数的方法可能是一种非常高效的方式。
In many cases, an index based approach can be kind of a very efficient way of doing that.
我觉得很有意思，你们在命名和代码方面也很擅长，比如BAI，挺不错的。
It's fascinating to me, how good you guys are at also the naming and the, the tickers, like b a I, pretty good.
Power，P，是什么来着？
Power, p what is it?
P O D O W R。
P o d o w r.
你不会想知道
You don't wanna know how much
那些代码背后花了多少时间，但我们是很认真的。
time was spent behind the scenes on some of those tickers, but we take it seriously.
嗯，我也猜这里面肯定有一整套游戏，比如谁拿到哪个代码，怎么去争取，你知道的，还有公司之间可能有一些讨价还价。
Well, I also am assuming that there's a whole game of, like, who gets what ticker and how do you jockey for, you know, getting them and and some horse trading probably going on between firms or whatever.
所以，我猜构建投资组合，任何人都能在电子表格里建一个。
So, I've got to imagine, that building the portfolio anyone can build a portfolio in a spreadsheet.
任何人都能想出，哦，我觉得应该叫这个名字。
Anyone can come up with, oh, I think it should be named this.
就像，这背后有很多聪明的、有意的设计。
Like, there there's a lot of, intelligent kind of intentionality behind that.
那从分销的角度来看呢？
What about from a distribution standpoint?
对，挺酷的。
Like, cool.
你打造了一只很棒的ETF。
You built a great ETF.
名字也起得好，但现在你得让人们来投资它。
It's got a great name, but now you gotta get people to invest in it.
其中一部分就是，嘿。
And some of that is like, hey.
我们把它推向市场，也许媒体会报道一下什么的。
We just can put it out in the world and, you know, maybe the media writes about it or something.
但你们在分销方面也很擅长。
But you guys also are very good at distribution.
那你觉得这部分怎么样？怎么和客户聊这些话题，回答他们的问题？
And so how do you think about that component and having conversations with clients on these topics and answering questions?
而且，你知道，这行还有另一大块业务。
And, you know, there's, like, a whole another part of this business.
嗯，分销策略中很大一部分就是帮助我们的客户。
Well, a huge part of the distribution strategy is just what helps our clients.
他们在找什么？
What are they looking for?
他们需要什么？
What do they need?
我们怎么用正确的方式触达他们？
How do we reach them in the right way?
我们怎么提供他们需要的教育？
How do we provide the education that they need?
举个例子，比如BAI，我们当时就是从客户的角度出发，我们知道大家看到了人工智能的机会，但他们想把怎么在AI领域布局这件事外包给一个信誉良好的管理人。
So a good example of this, you know, BAI, we really approached it from the perspective of we knew people saw the opportunity in artificial intelligence, but they wanted to sort of outsource to a, to a well regarded manager how to play within the AI space.
除此之外，客户最常问我们的问题是，这个在我的投资组合里该怎么处理？
And then on top of that, the question we were getting most often from clients was like, what do I do with this in my portfolio?
我的投资组合里AI是不是太多了？
Is AI too much in my portfolio?
是不是我的投资组合里AI太少了？
Is it too little in my portfolio?
如果我要配置BAI，我该卖掉什么？
Where if I'm gonna allocate to BAI, what do I sell?
所以从一开始，我们就从产品设计和分销两个角度考虑，要把事情说清楚。
And so from the beginning, we really thought both from the product design and from the distribution perspective of let's be really clear.
BAI的设计初衷是，你卖掉科技板块，然后配置到BAI，总体上保持行业和地域敞口相对中性，但你会偏向当今科技领域最好的部分，同时舍弃那些未来不太有吸引力的部分。
BAI is designed to be you're selling your tech sector and you're allocating to BAI to really overall, you're gonna keep your sector and geography exposure relatively relatively neutral, but you're gonna be leaning into the kind of best parts of technology in today, and leaving behind some of the parts that are not the most interesting parts of technology going forward.
所以，有这种明确的目标，有传达这些决策的分销策略，对我们来说非常重要。
And so having that intentionality, having a distribution strategy that communicates those types of decisions is really important to us.
拥有工具和教育，才能真正完善新产品的生态系统。
Having the tools, the education, that really kind of completes the ecosystem for a new product.
这不仅仅是有一个好记的代码。
It's not just about having a, you know, a memorable ticker.
那当然有帮助。
It helps.
有个好代码是好事，但你真的得用投资组合的视角和解决客户需求的视角来支撑它。
It's good to have a good ticker, but you really have to support it with that portfolio lens and really kind of solving the client need lens.
独立投资者的崛起会带来什么变化呢？
How does the, like, the rise of the independent investors change things?
我们显然看到很多精品ETF发行商直接说，嘿。
We've obviously seen a lot of boutique ETF issuers just say, hey.
我们就要走独立路线。
We're just gonna go independent.
如果你听各家公司的财报电话会议，包括你们在内，我觉得有很多讨论。
If you listen to the earnings calls of various companies, including you all, I think there's a lot of talk.
每个人叫法不一样，自主投资、私人财富、独立，随便什么。
Everyone calls it something different, self directed, private wealth, you know, independent, what whatever.
但这感觉是个大机会，不过公司们还在摸索，怎么跟这些人打交道，他们想要的东西是不是一样的？
But that feels like it's a big opportunity, but firms are still trying to figure out, you know, how do we interface with these people, and and do they want the same things, not the same things?
跟我们说说，现在这情况是什么样的。
Just talk about, you know, what what that looks like today.
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这是一个巨大的机会，也是增长最快的客户渠道之一。
It's a tremendous opportunity, and it's a it's one of the fastest growing client channels.
重要的是，首先，ETF一直是一种民主化的工具。
The important part is, one, ETFs have always been this democratizing vehicle.
普通投资者在他们的在线经纪账户上可以买到和世界上最大的机构一样的敞口，比如标普500或者比特币。
An end investor on their online brokerage account can buy the same exposure that one of the largest institutions in the world can buy to get the S and P 500 or to get Bitcoin.
但是普通投资者做决定的方式可能和大型成熟机构非常不同。
But the way that the end investor makes that decision is probably gonna look very different from a very large sophisticated institution.
我们不得不变得更擅长的一件事，就是真正去思考普通投资者，他们是谁，他们怎么考虑该投资什么，那个过程，以及他们需要什么工具。
One of the things we've had to get much better at is really thinking about the end investor and who they really are, how they think about what investments, they should be investing in, that process, what tools do they need.
普通投资者的范围很广。
There's a wide range of end investors.
有些人更偏向交易导向。
Some people are more kind of trade oriented.
他们追求非常精准的敞口，而且对自己的操作非常有信心。
They're looking for laser specific exposures, and they have really high conviction in what they're doing.
其他终端投资者可能刚攒下第一笔100美元，想投到类似401k退休账户的东西里。
Other end investors have just saved their first $100 amount to put it to work in something that resembles their four zero one k retirement account.
产品差异很大，投资者类型也各不相同。
Very different products, very different types of investors.
他们需要不同类型的教育。
They need different types of education.
所以我们思考了很多，就是做出优质的产品，但这些优质产品不一定适合同一个投资者群体。
And so a lot of, ways that we've thought about it is let's make incredible products, but let's make incredible products that might not necessarily be for the same, investors.
不同的产品对不同的人有不同的用途，我们要确保帮助这些投资者了解他们投资的是什么。
Different products are gonna have different use cases for different people, and let's make sure we help those investors understand what they're getting into.
说到ETF这种产品结构，显然，共同基金行业曾经很了不起。
When you think about the ETF wrapper itself, obviously, the mutual fund industry was, was incredible.
但现在它有点被边缘化了。
And now it's kind of fallen to the wayside.
实际上，我觉得很有意思的是，当我跟那些经验丰富、来自传统金融界的前辈们交流时。
And I actually think, it's very interesting when I talk to, older people with more experience that come from the traditional finance world.
他们觉得共同基金是默认选项，而ETF到今天还是新事物。
They think mutual funds are, you know, the the default, and ETFs are this new thing even today.
我跟年轻人聊的时候，他们就说，共同基金？
When I talk to anyone who is young, they're like, mutual funds?
那完全是另一回事了。
Like, you know, that's like a whole different ballgame.
我只知道ETF。
Like, all I know is ETFs.
这感觉就像是一次技术变革。
It feels almost like it is a technology shift.
你在AI上也能看到这种情况。
And you see this with AI.
就像有AI之前和AI之后。
Like, there's pre AI, and, you know, now there's a post AI.
加密货币也是类似的情况。
Crypto, thing.
那在内部，大家是怎么讨论ETF这种产品结构的兴起，以及它给投资者带来的价值的？
What is the conversation internally of just, like, the ETF wrapper, the rise of it, and maybe the value that that brings to investors?
对，我完全同意。
So, I I completely agree.
ETF确实是一种技术，它让更多投资者在投资中获得了更高的流动性、透明度和税收效率。
ETFs are a technology that helped bring more liquidity, more transparency, more tax efficiency to investing for so many more investors.
回到共同基金，现在对共同基金结构的需求依然很大。
Just to go back to the mutual fund, there's still plenty of demand for the mutual fund structure.
在退休金领域，它仍然是主导结构，因为在那里税收效率和流动性没那么重要。
It's still largely the predominant structure in the retirement space where tax efficiency and liquidity are not as important.
你知道，人们每两周就把钱存进去。
You know, people are putting away money every two weeks.
他们不会频繁交易。
They're not trading.
他们也不会做空。
They're not shorting.
你知道，他们只是做多，这对退休来说是个高效的机制。
It's you know, they're just long only, and that's an efficient mechanism for, for retirement.
另外，在市场某些领域，如果不需要每日透明度，共同基金可能仍然有价值。
Also, in certain areas of the market where maybe not having transparency on a daily basis, it could still be valuable to have a mutual fund.
但对许多投资者来说，ETF 是他们未来默认的投资工具，原因就是我刚才提到的那些。
But for many investors, the ETF is their default investment vehicle going forward for all the reasons I mentioned.
再说一遍，流动性、透明度、税收效率。
Again, liquidity, transparency, the tax efficiency.
这些都非常重要。
That all really much matters a lot.
所以当我们考虑产品开发时，在很多情况下，默认答案会是，如果能在 ETF 中高质量实现，这个策略可能应该做成 ETF。
So when we think about product development, in many cases, the default answer will be this strategy should probably be in a in an ETF if it's doable in an ETF at high quality.
这并不意味着所有东西都会变成 ETF，但尤其是在流动性好的市场，ETF 会占上风。
Doesn't mean everything will be an ETF, but especially in in kind of liquid markets, that's you know, tie would go to the ETF.
今天的节目由 TOKEN2049 赞助，这是加密货币领域最大的会议，又回来了。
Today's episode is brought to you by TOKEN2049, The largest conference in crypto is back.
TOKEN2049将在10月7日和8日在新加坡滨海湾金沙举办，预计会有25000人参加，300位演讲者，还有超过一千场周边活动。
TOKEN2049 will host 25,000 people, 300 speakers, and a thousand plus side events in Singapore on October seventh and eighth at Marina Bay Sands.
演讲嘉宾阵容绝对豪华。
The speaker list is absolutely stacked.
包括Polymarket的Shane Copeland、Hyperliquid的Jeff Young、纳斯达克的Adena Friedman、Arthur Hayes、Balaji，还有Eric Trump。
Shane Copeland from Polymarket, Jeff Young from Hyperliquid, Adena Friedman from Nasdaq, Arthur Hayes, Balaji, and Eric Trump.
加密货币和传统金融界的人士齐聚一堂，这很能说明未来的趋势，而且会议正好赶上F1周末，所以整个活动会变成超级热闹的一周。
Crypto and traditional finance in the same building, which tells you a lot about where this is going, and the conference runs right into F1 weekend, so the whole thing turns into one giant week.
如果你要去新加坡，使用代码POMP10可以享受门票九折优惠。
If you're headed to Singapore, use code POMP10 for 10% off your ticket.
TOKEN2049，10月7日和8日在新加坡举行。
TOKEN2049, October seventh and eighth in Singapore.
去看看吧，链接在描述里。
Go check them out in the link in the description.
今天的节目由Simple Mining赞助。
Today's episode is brought to you by Simple Mining.
比特币挖矿一直给人感觉又复杂又高风险，而且很难当作真正的投资来评估。
Bitcoin mining has a reputation for being complicated, risky, and hard to evaluate as a real investment.
如果你考虑在2026年挖矿，真正重要的不是表面的盈利数字。
If you're considering mining in 2026, what actually matters isn't headline profitability.
而是运行时间、维修，以及整个运营是不是像真正的生意那样管理。
It's uptime, repairs, and whether the operation is run like a real business.
这就是为什么我一直在用Simple Mining。
That's why I've been using Simple Mining.
他们总部在爱荷华州的锡达福尔斯，提供白手套托管服务，矿机归你所有。
They're based in Cedar Falls, Iowa, and they run a white glove hosting operation where you own your miners.
你可以自己选矿池，比特币直接打到你的钱包。
You choose your own pool, and you have Bitcoin sent directly to your wallet.
他们入选了Inc. 5000榜单，是爱荷华州增长最快的公司，管理着超过4万台矿机。
They were featured on the Inc 5,000 list as the fastest growing company in Iowa with over 40,000 machines under management.
我最看重的是他们的执行力。
What stands out to me is execution.
他们拥有排名第一的ASIC维修中心，而且前十二个月的维修费用都包含在内。
They have the number one rated ASIC repair center, and for the first twelve months, repairs are included.
如果挖矿利润空间变紧，你可以随时暂停，不会有任何罚款。
If mining margins get tight, you can pause with no penalties.
如果你想调整或升级你的矿机群，他们还有一个市场可以转售设备，不会让你被困住。
And if you wanna resize or upgrade your fleet, there's marketplace to resell equipment instead of being stuck.
为了帮助大家判断现在挖矿是否真的划算，他们准备了一份简短的资料，叫做《20.26比特币挖矿蓝图》。
To help people think it through whether mining actually makes sense right now, they put together a short resource called the $20.26 Bitcoin mining blueprint.
这份资料详细介绍了投资者在分配挖矿资源时常犯的五个错误，并解释了如何在投入资金之前避免这些错误。
It walks through the five mistakes investors make when allocating the mining, and they also explain how to avoid them before deploying capital.
如果你感兴趣，可以免费在simplemining.io/pomp获取。
If it sounds interesting to you, you can get it for free at simplemining.io/pomp.
网址是simplemining.io/pomp。
That's simplemining.io/pomp.
今天就去看一看，看看你是否应该加入挖矿的行列。
Go check it out today and see if you should get into the mining game.
你们在考虑整个行业格局和你们打造的产品线时，遇到了哪些挑战？
When you guys think about, the landscape, the product suite that you have built, what what are the challenges?
比如，有哪些事情让你们夜不能寐，让你们觉得，嘿，
Like, what are what are the things that, you keep you awake at night and you're like, hey.
这个问题我们还得解决。
We still gotta solve this.
因为我觉得从外面看，大家会觉得，哇，他们在比特币ETF上做得太成功了。
Because I think on the outside, people are like, man, they killed it with Bitcoin ETF.
他们在整个ETF领域都做得非常出色。
They killed it with the ETF game in general.
公司发展得很好。
The firm is doing very well.
正在不断壮大。
It's growing.
你知道，它已经是华尔街的领军者之一了。
It's you know, it's one of the leaders on Wall Street.
那故事的另外一面是什么呢？
What's the other side of that story?
比如，有哪些事情让你们夜不能寐？
Like, what what are the things that keep you guys awake?
什么让我们夜不能寐？
What keeps us awake?
我觉得，第一，我们在教育方面总是可以做得更多，帮助人们以最好的方式使用我们的产品。
I think, one, I think we can always do more on the educational side to help people use our products the best possible ways.
我们得接触到很多投资者。
That just we have to reach a lot of investors.
我们在提供评论时必须非常用心。
We have to be really thoughtful in the types of commentary we're providing.
我觉得这真的很重要。
I think that's really important.
另一部分是，现在市场上的选择太多了。
The other piece is there's so much choice out there now.
现在ETF的数量比美国上市的股票还多。
There's so many there's more ETFs than there are stocks listed in The United States.
真是疯狂。
Crazy.
今年会是ETF发行创纪录的一年。
This is gonna be a record year for ETF launches.
我们看到现在主动型ETF比指数型ETF还多。
We're seeing there's more active ETFs now than index based ETFs.
市场上有这么多选择，投资者确实更难决定该买哪只ETF了。
And with that amount of breadth on the market, it does make it much harder for investors to make the decisions of what ETF they should buy.
而且更麻烦的是，名字可能都一样。
And making it further harder, you know, the names can be the same.
你可以有很多听起来都像AI ETF或电力基础设施ETF的基金。
You you can have plenty of ETFs that all sound like an AI ETF or a power infrastructure ETF.
那里面到底装的是什么？
What's going on under the hood?
你投资的公司有哪些？
What are the companies you're invested in?
过程是怎样的？
What's the process?
你是怎么把那个产品设计得那么用心、那么周到的？
How did you structure that product to be really, designed in a way that was really thoughtful?
其中一个例子就是Bidda。
One example of that is is Bidda.
Bidda是我们的比特币溢价收益ETF，我之前稍微提到过。
So Bidda is our our Bitcoin premium income ETF, as I was mentioning a bit earlier.
我们在设计它的时候做了一个非常刻意的选择，这里我要深入讲一下。
And we made a very intentional choice to structure it, and this I'm gonna nerd out.
抱歉。
I'm sorry.
我们把它设计成了33法案产品，而不是40法案产品。
But, we structured it as a 33 act, product instead of a 40 act product.
33法案的结构和比特币、黄金ETF是一样的。
33 act is the same structure that you have for, for Bitcoin, for gold ETFs.
但相比40法案结构，这有点不寻常，因为几乎所有其他ETF都是40法案的。
But it's a bit unusual compared to the 40 act structure, which is for predominantly almost all ETFs otherwise.
但我们这么做是因为对投资者有一些税务上的优势。
But we did that because there are certain tax advantages, to investors.
不过它会附带K-1表格，这可能会稍微复杂一些。
It does come with a k one form, which can be a little bit more complex.
但归根结底，对投资者来说，税后收益可能更高。
But at the end of the day, it can be more after tax efficient for investors.
所以，我们研究了这两种不同的结构。
And so, you know, we looked at these two different structures.
我们看了33法案。
We looked at the 33 act.
我们不得不做出决定，虽然这可能会稍微复杂一点，但如果我们能教育大家为什么这么做，以及这是为了税后投资者，那最终对很多人来说可能是更好的选择。
We had to make the decision of it might be a little bit more complicated, but if we educate people on why we did this and it's for after tax investors, that can ultimately be a better choice, for for for many people out there.
所以ETF背后其实有很多细微的差别。
So there's so much nuance that goes under the hood with ETFs.
我想对大家说的是，不要只看名字。
I guess my message to people out there is don't just look at the name.
名字好听当然不错。
The catchy name's great.
但ETF提供商在设计和质量上投入了很多心血，这些都在表面之下。
There's a lot going on under the hood of the decisions and the quality that an ETF provider is putting into their ETF.
再举一个例子。
One other example.
这不仅仅是ETF本身的设计问题。
It's just, it's not just about the design of the ETF itself.
还涉及到它在市场上的交易方式。
It's also about how it trades on the market.
这在很多方面其实跟我们有点距离。
That's something that in many ways is a bit, arm's length from us.
我们不是做市商。
We're not a market maker.
我们不会为某一只ETF设定市场，但我们和做市商有合作关系。
We're not setting out markets on an individual ETF, but we have relationships with market makers.
在设计ETF时，我们会仔细考虑做市商在为我们ETF提供最佳市场时会遇到的痛点。
And when we design an ETF, we're thoughtful about what are the pain points for market makers in terms of how they can make the best possible markets for our ETFs.
所以，再说一次，你可能会有两只听起来完全一样的ETF。
And so, again, you could have two ETFs that sound exactly the same.
其中一只ETF得到了很多做市商的支持。
One ETF is supported by a really wide range of market makers.
如果我们遇到流动性挑战或者市场有点动荡的情况，我敢打赌，有更强大的做市商群体和更好关系的ETF，其流动性体验可能会比没有这些支持的ETF更好。
If we end up in an environment where there's liquidity challenges or markets are getting a bit shaky, I'm gonna bet the ETF that has a more robust market making community around it and better relationships is probably gonna have a better liquidity experience than one where that doesn't exist.
你们一直非常自律，不去做某些事情，这真的很令人着迷。
It's it's fascinating how, you all have been very disciplined as well to not go do certain things.
你提到，在实物创建过程中，你们不会参与。
You mentioned, in the in kind, creation process, you all don't do it.
第三方来做，然后参与其中。
A third party does it and then participates.
你们不是做市商。
You're not a market maker.
很多人可能会说，如果我做得那么大，管理那么多资产，最终进入这个领域也是合理的。
A lot of people who would say, well, if I got that big and I had that many assets, like, it would make sense to eventually get into that game.
所以，这种自律几乎感觉像是公司的核心竞争力，无论是决定进入哪些业务，还是在基金发行上。
And so, it the discipline almost feels like that is a core competency of the firm, whether it is, you know, what businesses do we get into, but even in the fund launches.
比如，你们不会去碰第三、第五、第十、第二十种加密货币。
Like, you're not going to the third, fifth, tenth, twentieth cryptocurrency.
你们只是说，看。
You're just kinda saying, look.
行业的三分之二到四分之三就在这里，我们就把这件事做好，解决客户的问题，而不是试图向人们展示我们能创造多少个代码。
Two thirds to three fourths of the industry is right here, and let's just be really good at doing this and solving the client's problems rather than trying to, you know, just show people how many tickers we can create or something.
这感觉像是日常对话中会提到的事情吗？
Like, does that feel like something that comes up during the day in in regular conversation?
确实如此。
It does.
说清楚一点，我们在美国仍然有超过480只ETF。
Just to be clear, we still have over 480 ETFs in The US.
所以我们的产品线非常广泛。
So we we have a very wide, library.
你知道，就像你图书馆里的所有书一样，我们都有对应的ETF。
You know, for all the books in your library here, we have an ETF.
但我们也可能拒绝了同样多，甚至更多的概念。
But we've also probably said no to just as many, if not more Mhmm.
概念。
Concepts.
而围绕产品创新的思考框架保持这种纪律，
And having that discipline around what is our framework for thinking about product innovation
是确保我们为投资者推出优质产品的绝佳指引。
Is a great north star to make sure we're bringing out great products for investors.
在我和ETF行业的人交流时，有一件事我一直很感兴趣，这有点像投资。
As I've talked to people in the ETF industry, one thing that I'm always, interested in, it's kinda like investing.
大家都觉得买对投资产品是最难的部分。
Everyone thinks that buying the right investment is is the hard part.
我现在确信，卖出以及知道何时卖出、怎么卖出，是一次性全部卖出还是分批卖出。
I'm now convinced selling and knowing when to sell, how to sell, you know, all at once over time.
你知道，所有这些环节，比如卖出，对我来说其实比买入难多了。
You know, all these components like, selling is actually way more difficult to me than buying.
推出ETF看起来也是这样。
Launching ETFs seems like that.
我的意思是，现在你只要舔舔手指，往空中一伸，就能碰到一堆供应商。
Mean, you could just lick your fingers, stick it in the air at this point, and there's all these providers.
人们都能做那些事。
People can do that stuff.
当你关闭一个ETF或者发现它不行的时候，感觉整个行业的人都有不同的看法。
When you shut one down or you realize it's not working, that feels like people all across the industry have different views.
而且，我有一个朋友。
And, I have one friend.
他有一只ETF。
He had an ETF.
那只ETF一直没什么起色。
It wasn't really going anywhere.
然后疫情来了。
COVID happened.
结果他恰好持有的那种ETF突然就变得人人关注，就是航空类的ETF。
And he happened to have the exact type of ETF that all of a sudden everyone cared about, and it was for airlines.
然后它就暴涨了，大家都觉得，哇，他真是个天才。
And it exploded, and it was like, oh, he's a genius.
我心里想，这可不好说。
And I'm like, I don't know, man.
他之前可是苦撑了两三年呢。
He kinda ate it for two years or three years or whatever.
他一直在亏钱，还坚持这么做，结果因为没关掉反而得到了回报。
And he was losing money and and doing this, and so he got rewarded for not shutting it down.
如果疫情没发生的话。
COVID never happens.
其实他可能并不明智，本来应该关掉的。
Like, he probably was not being smart and should have shut it down.
那你们是怎么考虑的？你们有400、500种不同的ETF。
So how do you guys think about, you know, you have 400, 500 different ETFs.
我相信你们肯定有推出过一些，最后又关掉了。
I'm sure one time you launched one and, you know, you ended up shutting it down.
那这个决策框架是什么样的？
So what does that framework look like?
这很大程度上还是取决于客户需求。
So a lot of it has to do again with client demand.
如果这个产品对客户来说仍然是一个重要的配置或策略，他们需要这种类型的敞口，那我们完全有规模去支持这些产品，即使市场需要一些调整，才能让这种敞口策略真正有价值。
If this is continuing to provide an important allocation or strategy to clients and they're looking for this type of exposure, we have plenty of scale to support those products even if the market has to evolve a little bit to be, to make that exposure strategy really valuable.
有时候这并不总是能成功。
Sometimes that doesn't always work out.
我觉得我们推出产品的成功率挺高的，大家都喜欢，但耐心确实很重要，尤其是如果你关注主题投资领域，这些主题可能需要很长时间才能显现出来，真正变得有价值。
I think we have quite a high hit rate of bringing out products that that people love, but being patient, do think is important, especially if you're looking at the thematic investing space where these themes can just take quite a long time to to play out and and to be really valuable.
我觉得你说得对，我真的很喜欢你的观点，就是卖比买难。
I think to your point I I really like your point though around it can be harder to sell than to buy.
我们经常从客户那里听到这个。
We hear this from clients all the time.
比如，我去找客户说，这是人工智能里一个很酷的部分，很容易。
Like, it's easy to for for me to come to a client and say, here's a really cool part of AI.
但我要卖什么来资助那个真正有趣的部分呢？
What do I sell to fund that really interesting part
人工智能的？
of AI?
我们围绕这种纪律开发产品的方法之一，就是建立轮动策略，由我们的系统化投资团队运行，他们不断吸收全球数百个不同的数据点和信号，基本上是为了理解代表客户的买入和卖出信号。
And one of the ways that we've developed products around that type of discipline is to build out rotation strategies, which are run by our systematic investing team, which is ingesting hundreds of different data points and signals around the world constantly to basically understand what are the buy and sell signals on behalf of clients.
这样做有两个好处。
And there's two benefits to this.
第一，如果你自己想去挑这些主题，你得把握好时机。
One is if you were trying to pick these themes yourself, you have to get the timing right.
比如说，你想卖掉科技股去买AI相关的，那你最好能精准地把握交易时机。
So if you were thinking sell tech by AI, you'd you'd ideally wanna time that trade appropriately.
但第二，就算你时机把握对了，最后可能还是要交税，因为你卖出了有收益的资产，又买了别的。
But then two, even if you get that right, you might still have a tax liability at the end of that because you've sold something at a gain and you're buying something else.
把轮动策略包装成ETF，它就能帮你自动把握交易时机，而且利用ETF的结构，可以有效地延迟资本利得税，直到有人决定卖出这个ETF。
By wrapping a rotation strategy in an ETF, it's timing those trades for you, and we're able to use the ETF structure to, effectively defer those capital gains until someone, decides to sell that ETF.
所以这已经成为我们主动型ETF策略中非常重要的一部分。
And so this has become a really important part of of our, active ETF strategy.
它把主题、因子、国家这些人们喜欢做战术性操作的东西，但往往在时机把握上很纠结，而且快速交易时还可能面临税务问题，都整合在一起。
It's taking things like themes, like factors, countries, where people like to be tactical, but struggle with timing and and can struggle with some of the the tax implications of trading those very quickly.
这真的很吸引人，因为现在也出现了很多，比如351交易所之类的，对吧？基本上你可以利用ETF这个外壳来作为税务减免或延迟纳税的策略。
It's it's fascinating because, there's also been a rise of, what is it, three fifty one exchanges or something, right, where basically you you can use the ETF wrapper as a tax, you know, mitigation strategy or a tax deferment strategy.
对我来说，你知道，一旦开始涉及税务问题，就说明这个行业已经成功了。
And to me, you know something has become, successful as an industry once you start getting to the tax stuff.
2012年，没人讨论比特币和税务。
2012, no one has talked about Bitcoin and taxes.
2021年，很多人都在讨论比特币和税务。
2021, there's a lot of people talking about Bitcoin and taxes.
然后就像，嘿。
And just like, hey.
我该怎么办？
What do I do?
税务影响是什么？
What is the tax implications?
诸如此类的事情。
All this kind of stuff.
现在关于ETF，我确实听到不少税务方面的讨论，不管是看到一些个人持有投资组合。
ETFs now I actually do hear quite a bit of tax, whether it is I've seen individuals who have a portfolio.
那我是不是应该，比如，设立一个ETF，然后把我自己的所有股票都放进去？
So should I just, like, set up an ETF and put all my own stocks in there?
我不知道人们这样做是不是特别成功，但确实有人这么干。
I don't know if people have been super successful doing that, but, like, that's been something.
还有351条款，这种轮动策略。
Three fifty ones, this rotation strategy.
在我看来，这说明你有一个成熟的市场，现在已经准备好进入大舞台，而且会以相当健康的速度继续增长。
That to me tells me you have a mature market that now is, like, ready for the big time and and is gonna continue to grow at a pretty healthy clip.
嗯，我觉得税收效率一直是ETF的核心。
Well, I I think tax efficiency has always been core to ETFs.
一开始，早期的ETF只是基于指数，交易量不大。
It started with early ETFs just were index based and didn't have a ton of turnover.
后来演变成ETF结构本身，以及它如何利用所谓的定制实物篮子，实际上可以递延部分资本利得，尤其是在美国股票市场。
It evolved into the ETF structure itself and how it can use the called custom in kind baskets, but effectively, defer some of the capital gains, especially in US equity markets.
但这并不是说ETF就一定是税收效率最高的工具，这不是什么普遍规律。
But it's not, it's it's not, some universal constant that ETFs have to be the most tax efficient vehicle.
人们也在寻找其他方式来减轻税务负担。
There are other ways that people are looking to mitigate taxes.
有不同的策略。
There's different strategies.
我不打算深入讲这个，但我觉得重要的是，随着越来越多的ETF进入市场，不能简单地说ETF就是最节税的工具。
I won't get too far into that, but I think what's important is as you see more ETFs coming to market, it's not as simple as saying ETFs are the most tax efficient vehicle.
比如说，某些策略使用不同的底层金融工具，可能就不具备同样的税收效率。
For example, certain strategies using certain different underlying financial instruments might not have the same tax efficiency.
如果你买期权或期货，那和买股票的情况会很不一样。
If you're buying options or futures, it's gonna look very different from buying stocks.
如果你买债券而不是股票，在税务影响上也会很不同，比如票息支付和股息支付的区别。
If you're buying bonds instead of equities, it's gonna be very different in terms of how you see the implications of, you know, coupon payment versus a dividend payment.
所以我觉得对投资者来说，这又是一个需要自己做功课的情况，ETF可能更节税。
So I think for investors, it's again a do your homework situation of ETFs can be more tax efficient.
但随着ETF被应用到越来越多的策略中，需要做的功课也更多了。
But as we see the ETF vehicle being pushed into more and more strategies, there's more homework to be done.
展望未来十二个月、二十四个月，围绕利率、通胀、选举、地缘政治、科技，以及什么是真实的、什么不是、什么是炒作，有很多问题。
When you look over the next twelve months, twenty four months, there's a lot of questions around interest rates, around inflation, around the election, around geopolitics, around technology, and what is real, what is not, what is hype.
你个人怎么看市场，其中有多少是噪音，又有多少是真正重要的？
How do you personally think about the market, and how much of that stuff is noise versus just, like, You know?
而且，就让一切自然发生，但这里有一种以长期心态驾驭这一切的能力。
And, like, let it all happen, but he here's kind of the ability to navigate this with a long term mindset.
所以我一直认为，第一，建立一个以核心资产为基础的组合非常重要。
So I've always thought about it as, you know, one, really important to build a portfolio anchored on the core.
核心应该基于你的长期目标和投资计划。
The core should be based off of what are your long term goals in your investments.
如果你在为退休储蓄，拥有低成本、税务高效、流动性好的工具来实现这一目标，是构建投资组合的一个很好的起点。
If you're saving for retirement, having low cost, tax efficient, liquid vehicles to be able to achieve that is a great place to start your portfolio.
我个人一直关注长期结构性转变，我认为如果你能以正确的方式抓住这些转变，会有很多机会。
I, for one, have just long been someone who's thought about long term structural shifts, and I think there's plenty of opportunity if you can capture those shifts the right way.
所以当我们考虑人工智能、地缘政治时，我倾向于关注我们正在看到的主要拐点是什么。
So when we think about AI, when we think about geopolitics, I tend to look at kind of what what is the what is the major inflection point that we're seeing.
这不是关于每天的新闻。
It's not about the news on a day to day basis.
也不是关于某个传言，或者某家公司只是推出个新产品升级。
It's not about some rumor or some company with necessarily just kind of a new product upgrade.
什么变了？
What's changed?
当我们看人工智能的时候，很明显，这是一个转折点。
And when we look at artificial intelligence, I mean, clear inflection point.
2022年11月的ChatGPT。
ChatGPT in November 2022.
什么变了？
What changed?
从很多方面来说，那个版本的GPT其实并不算多新或多有趣。
In many ways, that version of of GPT was was not that new or interesting.
它已经存在好几年了，但他们引入了一个聊天框，这意味着更多的人可以使用它，它成为了有史以来增长最快的在线平台。
It was a couple years old already, but they introduced a chat box, which meant that so many more people could participate in it, and it became the fastest growing online platform of all time.
那显然是一个转折点。
That's obviously an inflection point.
如果通过了一些新法规，那也可能成为一个重大的转折点。
If there is some new regulation that passes, that can be a major inflection point.
你知道，我们看到了那个庞大的基础设施法案。
You know, we saw the huge infrastructure bill.
那是什么时候？
What was it?
我想想，大概是2017年吧。
2017, I I wanna wanna say.
这对美国基础设施的建设来说是一个巨大的转折点。
Huge inflection point for the build out of infrastructure in The United States.
所以转折点可能来自各种不同的方面，但当你看到重大的技术突破、重大的法规变化或重大的社会变革时，那就是我们想要基于的洞察点，来考虑为投资组合添加主题。
So it can it can come from a variety of different sources, but when you see that major tech breakthrough, that major new change in regulation, major societal change, that's what we wanna anchor our insights on to think about kind of adding themes to a portfolio.
我觉得金融领域的故事现在真的转向了主权和去中心化，现在有这么多公司。
The I think the story in finance has really shifted now to sovereignty, decentralization of now there's so many firms.
它正在推动这些独立投资者的发展。
It's pushing towards these independent investors.
确实感觉AI和比特币，它们的理念，比单纯的技术更具代际性。
It really does feel like AI and Bitcoin, like the ethos, is more generational than just the technologies.
我觉得你和我可能，我们的想法，跟我们的父母或祖父母在投资上确实不一样。
I I think you and I probably, we think differently than maybe, you know, our parents or our grandparents do about investing.
我一直好奇，这就像先有鸡还是先有蛋。
And I always wondered, it's like chicken or egg.
比如，我们想法不同是因为行业在变化，还是因为有一群人，大概20到50岁，他们想法不同，所以市场开始转变。
Like, do we think differently because the industry was changing or because there's a bunch of people who are, you know, I don't know, 20 to 50 years old, They think differently, so the market starts to shift.
我也不知道答案。
And I I don't know the answer.
但这让我很着迷。
But it's fascinating to me.
随着这种变化，就出现了Robinhood和金融科技公司等等。
As this changes, you get the Robin Hoods and the fintechs and all that.
但我给你举个具体的例子。
But I'll I'll give you a concrete example.
在我们的消费者平台Sylvia上，当你查看资产分布时，仍然有一些永恒的东西。
On Sylvia, the, the consumer platform that we have, when you look at the asset breakdown, you still have some timeless things.
大约有20%左右的资产是主要住所或房地产。
There's, I don't know, 20 ish percent or so of assets, primary residence, or real estate.
这很合理。
Makes sense.
当你想到，哦，人们在使用金融科技产品时。
When you think of, like, oh, people are using a fintech product.
你会觉得，显然大家都在追最新的网红股。
You're like, everyone is obviously, you know, on the latest meme stock.
这就是我听到的，你知道，那些头条新闻。
Like, that's what I'm hearing, you know, the headlines.
不，兄弟。
No, man.
他们仍然拥有房产。
They still own a real they still own real estate.
只有10%是加密货币。
Only 10% is crypto.
所以你会以为，我的听众们肯定90%都是加密货币。
So you would think that, you know, people coming from my audience are like, oh, they must be 90% crypto.
10%比普通美国人的比例要高，但相对而言还是低的。
10 is a higher number than I think the the average American, but it's still, like, a relatively low number.
再看看公开股票。
You look at public equities.
那才是他们投资组合的大头。
That is the bulk of their investment portfolio.
所以这总是让我觉得很有意思。
And so it always is fascinating to me.
就是当你看到数据和人们说的故事对比的时候，对吧。
It's like when you look at the data versus the narratives Mhmm.
我们知道事情在变化，但实际上变化有多大呢？你知道，人们还是会按照某种方式分配资产。
We know things are changing, but how much do they really you know, people still are going to allocate in a certain way.
我觉得这就是为什么你们作为一家企业这么有趣——你们以比特币为先导。
I think that's why maybe you guys are so interesting as a business is you are leading with Bitcoin.
你们在人工智能领域领先。
You are leading in AI.
你们在很多这些领域都领先，而且你们在拥抱新事物。
You are leading in many of these areas, and you're, like, embracing the new stuff.
但如果你去看资产，你们仍然有很多核心资产，以及那些普通的资产，也许早期采用者的大部分资金都放在那里。
But if you go and you look at the assets, you still got a lot core and, you know, these, like, normal, assets that maybe the, the early adopters, you know, that's where the bulk of their capital is.
完全正确。
Absolutely.
你知道，我想回到之前提到的代际话题。千禧一代是第一代真正的数字原生代，但社交媒体并不是所有千禧一代都天生熟悉的，对我们很多人来说是这样。
You know, I think going back to the generational comment, you know, millennials were the first real kind of tech native generation, but social media wasn't necessarily native to all millennials, for many of us.
你什么时候有手机的？
When did get a cell phone?
高中。
High school.
我高中时就有了，那时候是
I got in in high school, and it was
翻盖手机。
a flip phone.
我还记得，得按四次数字键才能打出T9的字母。
And I remember still, like, punching the number four times to get, like T nine.
按七次才能打出P之类的。
Seven to be a p or whatever it was.
真是老古董了。
Like, so Boomer.
我的大拇指现在还疼呢。
My thumbs are still sore.
顺便说一下，
I by way,
我最近跟办公室的一个人说了。
I told somebody in our office recently.
我就说，对。
I was like, yeah.
你知道，我们有那种T9短信手机，他们问，T9是什么？
Know, t we had a t nine, texting phone, and they were like, what's t nine?
我就说，天哪。
I'm like, oh my god.
感觉我们真的老了。
Like, I'm we're getting old.
你懂吗？
You know?
Randall，我有那个翻盖的。
Randall, I I had the flip.
我有那个滑盖的。
I had the slider.
我用的那款是带键盘的。
I had the one that had the keyboard.
它就像那样翻过来。
It, like, flipped that way.
感觉那时候的手机，样子跟现在完全不一样。
Like, it used to just, like, the generation looked completely different.
就是那种侧滑盖的，你知道吧，翻盖什么的。
Sidekick, you know, flip or whatever.
转过来，然后就有个键盘。
Turn it, and it would, like, have a keyboard.
你可以用两个大拇指打字。
You could do you use two thumbs.
你就觉得，对。
You were like, yeah.
我打字可快了。
I'm moving.
然后就是黑莓手机上的那个轨迹球。
And then it was and then having a a trackball on the BlackBerry.
就像，
Like,
范围很大。
Huge range.
但基本上还是在社交媒体出现之前，因为那时候还没有4G网络，在早期的手机上很难看视频或者发照片。
But it was it was still pre social media, basically because it was pre four g connectivity where it was really hard to watch a video or send a photo on these early cell phones.
Z世代的人，出生在社交媒体时代，他们知道另一种生活。
The Gen Z generation, like, born in social media, like, know another life.
我觉得看看阿尔法世代，他们体验金融世界的方式会和他们的父母以及祖父母非常不同。
And I think you look at, Gen Alpha, and a lot of how they're gonna experience the financial world is gonna look very different from how their parents and their parents' parents interacted with it.
所以我确实认为，理解这些差异很重要。
So I do think, it's it's important to understand these differences.
这对我们考虑业务也很重要，我们很多业务是把ETF带给服务这些世代的财务顾问，而在很多这样的关系中，他们必须同时和父母以及孩子沟通。
It's also important for when we think about our business, a lot of it is, is, is bringing our ETFs to financial advisers who are serving those generations, and they have to talk to the parent and the child in a lot of those relationships.
所以父母会说，你跟我讲讲你的大盘成长基金，而孩子会说，你跟我说说你的比特币基金。
And so the parent's saying, you know, talk to me about your large cap growth fund, and the kid is saying, tell me about your Bitcoin fund.
所以很多时候，我们做的很多教育工作就是帮助理财顾问跟两代人沟通，尤其是在婴儿潮一代向千禧一代转移大量财富的背景下。
And so oftentimes, a lot of the education we do is helping advisors communicate to both generations, especially amid this tremendous amount of transfer of wealth that's gonna happen from the boomer to the millennial generation.
所以我认为iBIT之所以这么成功，其中一个原因就是理财顾问们意识到，他们跟婴儿潮一代客户讨论的产品类型，不一定跟他们跟千禧一代客户讨论的产品类型一样，他们需要弥合这个差距，至少要对这些话题有所了解。
So one of the one of the reasons why I think iBIT has been so successful is advisers have recognized the types of products that they spoke about with their with their baby boomer generation clients does not necessarily resemble the types of products they'll talk about with their millennial clients, and they need to bridge that gap and be at least conversant in some of these topics.
确实有道理。
I mean, it makes sense.
而且，我也不知道。
And and, I don't know.
我经常听到，好像他们称之为“银色海啸”，就是说所有这些资产都会转移过来，然后年轻人会卖掉那些东西，把钱投到他们喜欢的东西上。
I I hear all the time, like, the I think they call it the silver tsunami of, like, all these assets are going to come, and the young people are gonna, like, sell whatever, and they're gonna move it into the things they like.
我觉得这种情况会有一些。
And I think there will be some of that.
我觉得很多企业都在考虑，我们的计划是什么，我们的过渡计划是什么。
I think that there's a lot of businesses that are kinda what is our, you know, our plan, our transition plan.
农民们现在压力很大，因为他们通常是第四代或第五代的农民，他们会把农场传给自己的孩子，但孩子们不想当农民。
Farmers are coming under a lot of pressure because usually they're a fourth or fifth generation farmer, and they would hand the farm to their kids, and their kids don't wanna be a farmer.
所以，你知道，这种情况我觉得在很多行业里都在发生。
And so, you know, that's happening, I think, with, like, businesses.
看着这些资产怎么转移会很有意思。
It's gonna be fascinating to watch the assets.
比如说，如果你是个孩子，你没有继承到一大笔钱。
Like, if you're a a kid who you don't inherit, you know, some an incredible amount of money.
也许你父母只有一个小股票投资组合。
Maybe your parents just had a small stock portfolio.
你会不会卖掉那些股票去买你喜欢的东西？
Like, do you go and sell those stocks to buy something else you like?
也许你父母持有可口可乐和沃尔玛的股票，而你会想，嗯，我想持有Palantir或者特斯拉之类的。
And maybe your parents had Coca Cola and, you know, Walmart, and you're like, well, I wanna own, you know, Palantir and Tesla or something.
我也不太清楚。
I I don't know.
但我觉得这可能是很多理财顾问面临的挑战，因为他们可能是这场对话中唯一不变的因素，要帮忙想办法处理这些资产。
But I think that's probably the challenge for a lot of these financial advisers is, like, they may be the only constant in that, you know, conversation and try to figure out what to do with the assets.
他们必须管理好这个过渡期。
They they have to manage that transition.
他们还得应对一个事实，就是千禧一代和Z世代在很多方面都更倾向于用科技手段来管理财务，所以得为顾问们开发工具。
They have to manage the fact that many ways that millennials or Gen Z wanna interact with their, finances is gonna be, you know, in a more kind of technology driven way as well, so building tools for advisors.
这确实是一个重要的转变。
It's it's it's an important shift for sure.
不过我认为构建投资组合的基本原则是不分世代的。
I do think the fundamental principles of building a portfolio aren't generational.
这些原则归根结底就是风险和回报的基本原理。
These are these go back to just basics of risk of return.
可用的工具在变化。
The instruments available are shifting.
工具的结构、不同类型的资产类别都在演变，但投资组合管理的基本原则不会变。
The the, know, the the structure of those instruments, the different types of asset classes, those are evolving, but the fundamental principles of portfolio management don't change.
所以我觉得对顾问来说，重要的是，你知道，管理资金时要保持清晰，但也要能和每一代人进行对话，主要是从行为的角度，让他们专注于最终目标。
And so I think the important thing for advisers is, you know, stay clear with how you manage money, but be able to have the conversations, with each generation mostly from a behavioral perspective to keep them focused on their end goals.
我刚才说了那些，然后那些五十岁以上的西尔维亚怪咖们，有几个会评论说，我持有Palantir。
Now I said all that, and the, the Sylvia misfits that are, like, over the age of 50, there's a couple of them that, they'll comment, and they'll say, I own Palantir.
我持有特斯拉。
I own Tesla.
我持有其他什么的。
I own whatever.
他们会说，你知道，我和我同龄人不一样。
And they'll they'll say, you know, I'm not like the rest of, of the of my cohort.
所以显然也有很多独特的人。
So there there's obviously a lot of, unique ones as well.
人们可以去哪里了解更多关于你们管理的基金，或者在网上找到你们？
Where can we send people to find, find more about the, the funds that you guys have or find you online?
简单。
Easy.
在iShares.com，具体是ishares.com/insights，那里有我们的主题年中更新。
Ishares.com, specifically ishares.com/insights is where we have our thematic mid year update.
那里基本上有10张非常有趣的幻灯片，讲的是人工智能下一阶段会是什么样子，可能会有哪些瓶颈，以及我们在科技以外的各个行业看到的一些机会。
That's where we have basically 10 really interesting slides on what the next phase of artificial intelligence is gonna look like, what some of those choke points might be, where we see some opportunity in various different sectors that live outside of technology.
所以欢迎大家去那里看看，ishares.com/insights。
So encourage people to go there, ishares.com/insights.
太棒了。
Amazing.
好的，非常感谢你来做这个。
Well, thank you so much for doing this.
我一直很喜欢和你聊天，期待以后还能再聊。
I always enjoy talking with you, and, look forward to doing it again in future.
谢谢你的邀请。
Thank you for having me.
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