本集简介
双语字幕
仅展示文本字幕,不包含中文音频;想边听边看,请使用 Bayt 播客 App。
我不认为机器会攻击我们,但我觉得,最终的风险在于,我们可能会因为机器人比我们更高效、更聪明而感到厌烦,以至于我们先去攻击机器,然后它们反击,最后变成人类和机器的战争。
I don't think that the machines would ever attack us, but I think, ultimately, there's a risk that we get so fed up by how productive and how much smarter the robots are than us that we end up attacking the machines, and then they attack us, and it ends up being man versus the machine.
这会不会演变成第三次世界大战,我不知道,但我确实对人工智能有很多担忧。
Whether that ends up being World War three, I don't know, but I do get a lot of concerns over artificial intelligence.
所以当我想到人工智能的崛起时,你经营着一家拥有很多实体店的公司。
So when I think about the rise of artificial intelligence, you run a company that has a lot of physical stores.
你觉得任何公司,不管是不是AI公司,怎么能在内部利用这些东西来提高效率,无论是作为CEO,还是对员工来说?
How do you think about any company, regardless of whether they are an AI company or not, can use this stuff internally to become more productive for themselves as a CEO, for their employees, etcetera?
比如,你们有没有强制要求使用?
Like, are you guys mandating anything?
你们有没有以任何方式鼓励使用这项技术?
Are you encouraging the use of this technology in any way?
我们在整个组织里大量使用它,而且它……
We're using a lot of it across the entire org, and it's...
我对这项技术发展的速度感到非常着迷。
I'm super fascinated at how quickly the technology is developing.
每次我觉得某家公司领先了,另一家公司就会推出更先进的模型。
Every single time I think one company is in the lead, another company comes out with a more advanced model.
我对这项技术感到非常担忧。
I get very worried about the technology.
很难不去想象最坏的结果,比如大规模失业。
It's hard to not imagine the worst outcome in terms of high unemployment.
而且,归根结底,我不认为机器会攻击我们,但我觉得,最终的风险是,我们可能会因为机器人比我们更高效、更聪明而感到厌烦,以至于我们开始攻击机器,然后它们反击,最终变成人类和机器的对抗。
And, ultimately, I don't think that the machines would ever attack us, but I think, ultimately, there's a risk that we get so fed up by how productive and how much smarter the robots are than us that we end up at hacking the machines, and then they attack us, and it ends up being man versus machine.
这会不会演变成第三次世界大战,我不知道,但我确实对人工智能有很多担忧。
Whether that ends up being World War three, I don't know, but I do get a lot of concerns over artificial intelligence.
你觉得你最担心的那个问题,最有可能变成现实的是哪一个?
What do you think is the most likely concern you have to actually come into fruition?
是那种物理安全的问题,还是更偏向网络方面的……
Is it something that is, like, physical security, or is it more of, like, cyber...
比如黑客攻击。
You know, there's hacks.
就是那种类型的事情。
There's, like, that type of stuff.
技术发展的速度,以及机器比人类聪明多少。
The the pace at which the technology is developing and how how much smarter the machines are than humans.
这真的让我们处于一个几乎没有用武之地的境地。
It really puts us in a position where we have very little utility.
而且,如果这导致高失业率,就会影响消费需求。
And, ultimately, if that leads to high unemployment, that affects consumer demand.
显然,这可能会产生连锁反应,结果不太好。
And, obviously, that that can have a domino effect that is not good.
但我们很难跟机器竞争。
But it's hard for us to compete against the machine.
所以它已经太先进了。
So it's already too advanced.
比如,我们能做的所有事情,机器都做得更好。
Like, everything that we can do, the machine is better at.
所以呢,
So
这挺有意思的。
So it's interesting.
我之前和Jordy Visser聊过,他有个理论,就是机器时间和人类时间的对比,机器在加速。
I was talking earlier with, Jordy Visser about, he's got this theory of, like, machine time versus human time, and the machines are speeding up.
我接触的每个高管几乎都说,感觉事情进展得太快了。
And every executive I talk to pretty much is like, I feel like things are moving very quickly here.
你提到新模型不断快速推出,等等。
You mentioned, you know, new models are coming out at a fast pace, etcetera.
你现在是怎么安排个人时间的?
How do you think about spending your personal time right now?
比如,你会改变在公司里做的事情吗?
Like, do you change what you're doing inside the business?
你会改变在业余时间做的事情吗?
Do you change what you're doing, you know, in in your time off from the business?
比如说,随着这些技术的发展,你的时间安排是怎么变化的?
Like, how is that evolving with the rise of all this technology?
嗯,我听说我们现在在公司做的所有事情都跟AI有关。
Well, everything we're doing at the business is AI, I've heard.
而且这种情况已经持续了至少几个季度了。
And it's been that way now for at least the past few quarters.
我现在几乎把所有时间都花在GameStop上,或者说大部分时间,专注于让公司尽可能高效运转。
I spent all my time on GameStop at this point or a majority of my time and focused on making the business as productive as possible.
你有没有做出什么改变?
Have you changed anything?
因为六个月前你可能会这么说,但在这段时间里,有什么变化吗?
Because you would have told me that six months ago, but has anything changed in that time period?
你是说我的时间安排方面?
In terms of my time?
就是说,比如……
Terms of Like, let...
这么说吧……
Let's just say...
比如,我们来聊聊瑞安·科恩的一天。
Like, let's do a day in the life of Ryan Cohen.
你有很多责任。
You have a lot of responsibilities.
你显然有员工。
You obviously have employees.
你有产品。
You have product.
你得处理融资、资产负债表,还有公司发展这类事情。
You have to deal with, you know, financing balance sheet kinda corporate development type stuff.
你得应对股东,虽然据我了解,你其实不太跟股东交流。
You gotta deal with shareholders, although you don't really do a lot of talking to the shareholders is what I gather.
你是怎么考虑分配时间的?
How do you think about spending your time?
然后在这个基础上,我给你举个例子吧。
And then inside of that, I'll give you maybe an example for me.
我建了一个定制软件,把我们的各种信息和系统整合起来,这样我就能更高效,因为我现在假装自己是软件工程师,能靠感觉写代码。
I built a custom piece of software to start to merge together a bunch of information and systems we have so I could just be more efficient because now, you know, I masquerade as a software engineer and can vibe code stuff.
比如,你有没有在公司内部建过什么工具?
Like, have you built any tools internally?
你每天做的事情有没有在变?
Are you changing what you're doing on a day to day basis?
总的来说,我尽量避免开会。
Generally, I avoid meetings.
我把日程安排得比较空,这样就能直接跟团队一起工作。
I I keep my calendar pretty open so that I can work directly with the teams.
我喜欢避开中层管理的那些杂音,直接跟干活的人一起工作。
And I like to avoid all the noise of middle management and work directly with the people that are doing the work.
AI提高了我的效率,也让我能看得更清楚。
And AI increases my productivity, and it also gives me visibility.
什么……
What...
这项技术真正有趣的地方在于,如果你几年前问我,最有价值的技能是什么?
What's really interesting about the technology is if you would have said to me a few years ago, what are one of the most valuable skills to have?
我会说是编程,是Java程序员。
I would have said being a programmer, being a Java programmer.
就像,最顶尖、最优秀的程序员都是用Java写代码的。
Like, the most advanced best coders, code in Java.
而现在我们已经到了一个不再需要那种专业水平的阶段。
And we're we're at a we're at a point where you don't have to have that level of specialization anymore.
那种专业水平,无论是编程还是完全没有编程技能,你都可以用AI来定位代码的根本原因,而且你和最顶尖的程序员处于同一水平。
That level of specialization, whether it's coding or having zero coding skills, you can use AI to identify a root cause to code, and you're at the same level as the most advanced programmers.
这真的非常了不起。
That that's that's just absolutely remarkable.
在这个世界里,我觉得每个CEO或公司都在试图弄清楚的一件事就是,好吧。
In this world, one of the things that I think every CEO or company is trying to figure out is, okay.
我想去招个人。
I wanna go and hire someone.
我不能给他们笔试,因为谁知道他们会用AI搞出什么乱七八糟的东西来。
I can't give them a written test because who knows they'd be using AI to do all kinds of crazy stuff there.
就算给他们一个项目,也挺难评估的。
It's a little hard even to give them like a project.
我们做过的一件事就是开始实行试用期。
One of things we've done is we've started to implement trials.
比如你直接来,跟我们一起工作四周。
Like you just come in, you start working with us for four weeks.
看看进展如何,也看看你是不是喜欢我们,我们是不是喜欢你。
Let's see how it goes and and kinda see if you like us, we like you.
你效率高吗?
Are you productive?
你合不合得来,文化上合不合适,等等。
Do you fit in culturally, etcetera?
既然现在的人才手里有那些工具,可能让他们在面试时表现得特别出色,但一旦进入公司,实际能力却没那么厉害,那你是怎么调整招聘流程或者评估人才的方式的?
How have you changed the hiring process or like the evaluation of talent given that now the talent has, you know, some tools that maybe could make them amazing at interviewing, But then they get inside the business and, you know, aren't all they're cracked up to be.
任务所需的专业化程度,已经不再是竞争优势或者入门门槛了。
The the level of specialization required for tasks is no longer becoming a competitive advantage or a qualifier anymore prerequisite.
所以实际上,表现最好的人就是那些最有动力的人。
So really, the best performers are the ones that are most motivated.
他们最有干劲。
They're the hungriest.
他们反应最快。
They're the most responsive.
他们能马上来面试。
They're available right away to come in for an interview.
他们想立刻开始工作。
They wanna work immediately.
这些就是我看重的品质。
Those are the things that I look for.
一般来说,那些心里憋着一股劲的人,他们总想证明自己,就是一心要赢。
Generally, people who have a chip on their shoulder, they have something to prove, and they just wanna win.
他们都想拿一半现金一半股票吗?
Do they all wanna get do they all wanna get paid half cash, half stock?
我喜欢这样。
I like that.
这个无可奉告。
That's a no comment.
好。
Okay.
什么……
What...
作为高管,你想在哪些方面提升自己?
What's something that you're trying to get better at as an executive?
我觉得很有意思的是,一直以来人们都对你很着迷。
Like, I find it very fascinating that, you know, people historically have, I think they're fascinated by you.
我觉得大家是对你的经营方式感兴趣之类的。
I think they're fascinated by the approach of the business, etcetera.
但我觉得到现在我已经足够了解你了,你一直在不断提升自己。
But I think I've gotten to know you well enough at this point where you are constantly trying to improve yourself.
那你最近想攻克的新目标是什么?
So, like, what's, like, the latest mountain you're trying to climb?
我想学中文。
I wanna learn Chinese.
你想学中文?
You wanna learn Chinese?
是的。
Yes.
好。
Okay.
为什么你想学中文呢?再过几个月或者一年,自动翻译技术就出来了,你根本不用学别的语言,就能说所有语言了。
Why do you wanna learn Chinese if we're months, if not a year away from some sort of, like, auto translation, you know, type technology that you don't even need to know a different language but could speak them all?
中国有超过十亿人口。
There's over a billion people in China.
这是一门重要的语言,值得学习。
It's important language to know.
好的。
Okay.
是因为中国是个重要的国家吗?
Is that It's important country.
我们是不是应该考虑一下,你和你的事业目前可能还没涉足,但未来可能会感兴趣的巨大市场?
Should we read into a large addressable market that you and your business may not be in but potentially could be interested in?
无可奉告,但确实是一门重要的语言。
No comments, but it's it's an important language to know.
瑞安·科恩是最有趣的采访对象,因为他可以对每个问题都说无可奉告,但依然很有看点。
You know, Ryan Cohen is the most interesting person to interview because he could just say no comment to every question and it's still entertaining.
这家伙在这方面真是有天赋。
You know, the guy's got like a, he's got a gift here.
说到未来,我们私下聊过几次,关于这一切会走向何方。
When you think about the future, we've had a couple of conversations in private of kind of where all this is going.
让我给你举一个极端的例子。
And maybe let me paint you an extreme example.
然后你告诉我你觉得这有多现实。我能想象这样一个世界:我从我的自动驾驶汽车里出来,那辆车是特斯拉Robotaxi车队的一员。
And then you tell me kind of how realistic you think that I could see a world where I get out of my self driving car that was part of like a Tesla Robo taxi fleet.
我走进家门,门自动打开,因为它识别出我的步态,也许还有我的生物特征。
I go to walk into my house, the door automatically opens because it recognizes my gate and maybe my biometrics.
然后我走进去,突然,那个给我做晚饭、一直在照看我孩子的人形机器人,扶我在餐桌旁坐下。
And then as I walk in, all of a sudden, the humanoid robot that cooked me dinner and has been watching my kids helps me, you know, sit down at the dinner table.
你就把这个例子展开想象一下。
And you just play this example out.
感觉就是,一切都自动化了。
And it's like, everything is automated.
一切都靠机器人。
Everything is robotics.
一切都是这种乌托邦。
Everything is, you know, this like utopia.
你是这么看待这一切的,还是你看到了一个不同的未来?
Is that kinda how you see this all playing, or do you see a different future?
现在任何坐办公室的工作,机器已经远远超过了人类,任何电脑工作。至于真正的机器人,体力劳动,我们还没到那一步。
I mean, anything right now that is a desk job, the machine as far as superior, any computer work when it comes to the actual like robots, physical labor, I mean, we're still not there yet.
我们可能离那一步不到几年了。
We're probably less than a few years away.
然后机器人在体力劳动方面也会比我们做得更好。
And then the robots are gonna be better than us at physical work also.
所以最终,问题归结为:我们的价值是什么?
So ultimately, it comes down to what is our utility?
作为人类,我们最终如何保持生产力?
How do we as humans ultimately end up being productive?
劳动力市场会是什么样子?
And what does the workforce look like?
而且如果你回顾过去的技术进步,你知道,大家都说我们最终会重新平衡劳动力,学会其他技能。
And, you know, if you look at if you look at technology technological advances in the past, they you know, everyone says that we end up rebalancing the workforce, and we end up learning other skills.
但我...
But I'm...
我...
I...
我想知道的是,一旦机器完成了你刚才提到的所有事情,我们的价值到底在哪里。
What I wanna understand is what what ends up being our utility once the machines are doing all the things that you just mentioned.
今天的节目由Arch Public赞助播出。
Today's episode is brought to you by Arch Public.
Arch Public刚刚将其代理交易平台扩展到加密货币之外,所以请注意了。
Arch Public has just expanded its agentic trading platform beyond crypto, so pay attention.
这可是个大新闻。
This is a big one.
现在他们正在股票、大宗商品和ETF上自动化策略,我觉得这将会非常巨大。
Now they are automating strategies across stocks, commodities, and ETFs, and I think that this is gonna be huge.
现在,当一个市场创下历史新高时,你可以自动获利了结,并将资金轮动到其他机会更多的市场。
You can now automatically take profits when one market hits new all time highs and rotate that capital into other markets showing more opportunity.
无论你是把资金轮动到AI股票、黄金,投资标普500,还是积累比特币,Arch Public都能为你的投资策略带来真正的纪律和自动化。
Whether you're rotating capital into AI stocks, gold, if you're investing in the S and P five hundred, or you're accumulating Bitcoin, Arch Public brings real discipline and automation to your investment strategy.
此外,他们还推出了一款强大的新税务亏损收割工具。
Additionally, they've launched a powerful new tax loss harvesting tool.
由于加密货币波动性大,且不受洗售规则约束,Arch Public可以用亏损抵消收益,而不会影响你的长期持仓。
With crypto being so volatile and its exemption from the wash sale rule, Arch Public can offset gains with losses without compromising your long term positions.
这正是每个严肃投资者都会做的事情。
It's exactly what every serious investor does.
机构级别的自动化,适用于所有主要资产类别。
Institutional grade automation that works across every major asset class.
不再有情绪化交易,不再错过税务机会,只有更智能、更省心的策略执行。
There's no more emotional trading, no more missing tax opportunities, just smarter, hands free execution of your preferred strategies.
现在就访问archpublic.com。
Go to archpublic.com right now.
联系他们的团队,安排个时间,如果你愿意的话可以带上你的账户,然后你就能了解自动化交易能为你做些什么。
Connect with their team, set up a time, bring your account if you'd like, then you can learn what automated trading can do for you.
Archpublic.com。
Archpublic.com.
今天的节目由Uphold赞助播出。
Today's episode is brought to you by Uphold.
你是不是厌倦了为了交易、赚取收益、质押或花掉你的加密货币而要在多个应用之间来回切换?
Are you someone who's tired of juggling multiple apps just to trade, earn, stake, or spend your crypto?
那就听好了,因为Uphold在一个统一的平台上就能完成所有这些操作。
Then listen up because Uphold does all of that in one single unified platform.
你可以访问300多种加密货币和法定货币,界面设计适合你,无论你是新手还是专家。
You can access 300 plus crypto and fiat currencies with an interface that works for you, whether you're a beginner or an expert.
Uphold还提供任意到任意的兑换功能,你可以在应用内直接将加密货币兑换成法定货币、法定货币兑换成贵金属、代币兑换成代币。
Uphold also features any to any swaps where you can swap crypto to Fiat, Fiat to metals, and tokens to tokens directly in the app.
如果你更喜欢自我托管,Uphold的保险库为你提供多重安全保护、密钥恢复、直接交易访问,让你安心,同时不牺牲便利性。
If you prefer self custody, Uphold's vault gives you multi six security, key recovery, direct trading access, and peace of mind without giving up convenience.
Uphold也是100%储备的,也就是说没有部分准备金的做法,而且储备证明每30天更新一次,所以你随时可以核实你的资产。
Uphold is also 100% reserved, meaning no fractional practices and proof of reserves are updated every 30 so you can verify your assets anytime.
对于美国用户,你甚至可以通过美元利息账户在美元上赚取收益。
For US users, you can even earn yield on dollars with a USD interest account.
没有费用,没有最低限额,而且资金通过Atomic Cash Suite计划最高可获得250万美元的保险。
No fees, no minimums, and funds are insured up to $2,500,000 through the Atomic Cash Suite program.
如果你想要一个应用来管理你的整个数字资产生活,今天就看看Uphold吧。
If you want one app for your entire digital asset life, check out Uphold today.
前往uphold.com了解更多信息。
Go to uphold.com to learn more.
Uphold.com。
Uphold.com.
今天就去看看吧。
Go check them out today.
你觉得那些机器或机器人相关的东西中,哪一个会产生最大的影响,或者你最期待哪一个?
Is there one of those machine slash robotics things that you think will have the biggest impact or, like, you're most excited about?
我对很多方面都感到兴奋。
Excited about a lot of it.
但我不太喜欢全民基本收入这个想法,我觉得那对人们的心理健康不好。
But, you know, I don't I don't like the idea of universal basic income, and I don't think that that's good for people's mental state.
比如说,人们靠自己的努力赚钱时,状态会好很多,而不是直接得到施舍。
Like, people do a lot better when they're earning as opposed to when something is given to them.
所以我想知道,当一切尘埃落定的时候。
So I wanna know when it's all said and done.
我的脑子通常会直接跳到最后一局,我想知道我们到底在做什么?
My brain usually, like, I go straight to the ninth inning, and I wanna know what are we doing?
我相信你对Neuralink技术或者脑机接口有所了解。
I'm sure you're familiar with the Neuralink technology or, like, a brain computer interface.
有一点了解。
A little bit.
这项技术在人身上成功实施多少次之后,你才会愿意去尝试呢?
How many successful implementations of that technology in a human has to happen before you'd sign up.
多少
How
多少次你才会愿意去试?
many would it take before you sign up?
是我在采访,Ryan。
I'm doing the interviewing, Ryan.
你先说,然后我再告诉你我的答案。
You go first, and then I'll tell you my answer.
我知道你正在算已经有多少人做过这个了。
And I know you're trying to calculate how many have done it already.
潘。
Pan.
什么?
What?
我想先有一些数据,然后……
I'd like to have some data and...
从成功的结果来看。
In terms of successful outcomes.
那现在轮到你了。
So now your turn.
所以你想学中文。
So you're trying to learn Chinese.
我学的都是些职场上的废话。
I'm just learning corporate bullshit.
这个嘛,无可奉告。
That's a a no comment.
我觉得对我来说,可能得几百万吧。
I think that it's gotta be for me, probably millions.
而且我觉得,如果我脑子还算好使的话,情况会大不一样。
And I think that it is very different if, you know, I've got hopefully a somewhat functioning brain.
我没有任何实质性的障碍。
I'm not, you know, impaired in any material way.
所以风险收益比可能和比如说你受了某种伤,或者有某种医疗状况时不一样,那时候可能突然之间就能说得更好了,或者类似的情况。
So the like risk reward is probably different than let's say, you know, if you had some sort of injury, if you had some sort of medical situation where could it be like a zero to one moment, you know, all of a sudden you could speak better or, know, something like that.
我觉得那是另一种计算方式。
I think it's a different calculation.
但对于一般的健康人来说,我觉得大家可能得看到几百万个实际应用案例,才会觉得,好吧,这不再是那种边缘的、反主流的观点了。
But for like the average healthy person, I think people are gonna wanna see probably millions of implementations before they're like, okay, this is like no longer kind of fringe contrarian.
这就是完全达成共识了。
This is just like full on consensus.
这是安全的。
This is safe.
这是好的。
This is good.
你明白吗?
You know?
而且几乎感觉我要落后了。
And almost like I'm falling behind.
如果其他人都开始做了,而我没做,那我就会落后。
If everyone else starts to get it and I don't, then I'm gonna be behind.
我觉得这会促使很多人开始去做这件事。
I think that's a huge catalyst for people to start to do it.
我在采访的时候,有很多话想说,但我得忍住不说。
I could be in interviews, and there's so much stuff I wanna say, and I have to stop myself from saying it.
所以我会说,为什么?
So I'd be Why?
这是一个
This is a
安全的地方。
safe place.
没人,没人会听,或者
Nobody's nobody's listening or
看。
watching.
安全的地方。
Safe place.
没人听,也没人看。
Nobody's listening or watching.
就像有个开关,一按就变傻,一按就恢复正常。
Just like a retard on, retard off button.
你看。
Look.
这就像……
This is...
虽然……
As much...
虽然这很好笑,但如果你开始想想大脑的处理能力,我们……
As funny as it is, like, if you start to think about the processing power of your brain, we...
我……
I...
我一直很喜欢……
I'm always a fan of...
我记得Naval Ravikant说过,要像狮子一样工作。
I think Naval Ravikant says, like, work like a lion.
就是那种白天节省能量,然后在关键时刻全力冲刺的感觉。
You know, kind of like go through the day, you're conserving energy, and then in these moments, like, it's like a full on sprint.
仔细想想,我们的大脑其实也是这样运作的。
And when you think about that, our brains kinda do that.
不管人们是担心刷手机刷个不停,还是看些无聊的电视节目,或者就是出去散散步,什么都不想,洗澡的时候,对吧?
And whether people are worried about doom scrolling or watching some stupid TV show, or just like going for a walk and not really thinking about anything, shower time, right?
人们洗澡的时候会有灵感,诸如此类的。
People get ideas in the shower, whatever.
你的大脑需要那种,不是完全满载的状态。
Your brain kind of needs the, I'm not fully at capacity.
不知道脑机接口是怎么处理这个的。
Don't know how that works with a brain computer interface.
比如说,那会让人享受吗?
Like, is that enjoyable?
如果你的大脑里一直有源源不断的智能,那你可能确实需要一个关闭按钮。
If you just, like, have a constant stream of intelligence in your brain, maybe you do wanna off button.
那会非常有帮助。
That would be very helpful.
我的大脑有时候运转得太快了。
My brain sometimes works too quickly.
如果我能让它进入第二或第三年,最终会更有生产力。
And if I get it into, like, second or third year, it ends up being more productive.
所以我想要一个减速开关。
So I'd like a slow down switch.
好的。
Okay.
所以就是减速开,减速关的按钮。
So retard on, retard off button.
明白了。
Got it.
在接入电脑界面之前,你脑子里都在想些什么?
What goes on in your brain before the computer interface?
比如,你整天都在想些什么?
Like, what what do you think about all day?
所有可能出错的事情,怎么提高效率,以及任何可能打乱我计划的事情,从现在到审判日之间。
Everything that can go wrong, how to create more efficiency, anything that can interrupt my plans between now and judgment day.
你觉得
Do you
你觉得审判日那天会发生什么?
do you think happens on judgment day?
很多……
A lot...
有很多不同的可能结果。
There's a lot of different possible outcomes.
听着。
Listen.
既然你提起来了,我觉得说说也无妨。
If you're gonna bring it up, I think it's fair game.
好。
Alright.
那我们就聊聊公开市场,还有散户投资者的崛起吧。
Let's let's talk about public markets and, like, the rise of the retail investor.
在座的各位,我觉得大多数都可以算是独立投资者,或者自主投资者。
Most people in this room are what I would call, like, an independent investor or self directed investor.
我觉得特别有意思的一点是,他们不仅想要对自己的财务有更多掌控,还在以各种不同的方式改变着市场的运作。
And one of the things I think is fascinating is not only do they want more control over their finances, but they are changing the way that the market works in a variety of different ways.
一方面,你可以说他们是在从那些大型机构手里分走资金。
In one hand, you could argue that you're taking money away from some of these larger players.
所以像代理投票这类事情,可能会受到影响。
And so things like voting's proxies, things like that could, you know, be swayed.
更重要的是,我跟很多对冲基金团队的人聊过,他们现在都在说,我们想看看大家在X上都在聊什么。
Maybe more importantly is when I talk to a lot of folks on hedge fund teams, they're now talking about, like, we're trying to see what people are talking about on x.
我们想看看散户的势头在哪里,然后机构就跟着这股劲走,这跟主流说法很不一样,主流说法是散户就是傻钱,华尔街才是聪明钱。
We're trying to see where the momentum in retail is, and then the institutions are following that energy, which is very different than I think kind of the the mainstream narrative of, like, the retail investor is, you know, dumb money, and there's smart money on Wall Street.
你觉得这会发展成什么样?
What do you see that developing into?
你可能是离这事儿最近的人之一了。
Like, you you are probably one of the people closest to this.
你也是这股劲的大受益者。
You've been a big beneficiary of that energy.
在你看来,未来几年这会怎么发展?
How does this play out over the next couple of years in your vision?
我们看到的情况是,散户对的时候可能比错的时候多。
What we've seen is there's probably been more cases where retail investors have been right and then retail investors have been wrong.
所以,就像你说的那样。
And so, like, it's exactly what you said.
人们基本上把散户当成傻瓜钱。
People look at basically retail as being dumb money.
然后你看看对冲基金,举个例子。
And, you know, then you look at hedge funds as an example.
我猜他们应该被认为是聪明钱,但他们全都跑不赢标普500。
And I guess they're supposed to be considered the smart money, but they all underperform the S and P 500.
而且他们可以说能接触到更多的数据。
And they have access to arguably more data.
他们能更多地接触到管理层,结果还是跑不赢。
They have greater access to management teams, and they underperform.
所以真的很难一概而论,很难给散户投资者和机构资金贴标签。
So it's really hard to speak and to, like, make stereotypes in general and, like, talk about a basket of retail investors versus institutional money.
但总的来说,如果你看看……
But in general, I mean, if you look at...
我们有一个……
We have a...
我们在GameStop有一个非常了不起的股东群体。
We have an incredible shareholder base at GameStop.
我不知道标普500里有多少公司能拥有我们这样的社区。
Now I don't know how many companies that are traded in the S and P five hundred have that kind of community that that we have.
有趣的是,你看很多这些股东,他们投资GameStop基本上就是基于对我的信任。
And what's interesting is, you know, you look at a lot of these shareholders, and they underwrote GameStop basically just based on believing in me.
就像,那就是他们的尽职调查,这很令人钦佩,因为如果是机构,他们会看着说,这根本说不通。
Like, that was their diligence, which is admirable because like an institution would look at it and say, this doesn't make any sense.
但他们最终还是相信了。
But they ultimately believed.
再看看公司今天的财务业绩,和过去相比,和2021年或2020年公司大量亏损的时候相比,已经大不相同了。
And you look at the financial results of the company today, and it looks a lot different than than it did in the past than than it did in 2021 or 2020 of what the company was losing a lot of money.
所以在很多方面,散户投资者拥有机构没有的优势,因为他们可以投资很多机构不会碰的东西,这本身就构成了竞争优势。
So in a lot of ways, retail investors have a lot of advantages that the institutions don't have because they can invest in a lot of stuff that the institutions won't, and that creates a competitive advantage in itself.
所以我正在和你们团队的一些人发消息,我跟他们说,我差点以为你要跟我解释一下审判日了。
So I'm messaging with some people on your team right now, and I told them I thought I was gonna you to explain judgment day there for a second.
那会挺好的。
That would have been, that'd been great.
但我想问一些更私人的问题。
But I wanna ask more personal questions.
如果我和你的团队聊聊,他们会说你最大的优点和最大的缺点是什么?
If I was to talk to your team, what would they say your greatest strength and your greatest weaknesses?
那得问他们了。
Would have to ask them.
你给我点信息吧。
You give me something.
我觉得言语可能很有欺骗性。
You know, I look like words can be very deceiving.
所以我看人的时候,真的会尽量忽略言语,只看他们的行动,因为有些人就是很会说话。
So when I look at people, I really try to filter out the words and just look at their actions because some people just have a way with words.
无论我告诉你什么,那都是我想让你相信的,但不一定就是事实。
And whatever whatever I tell you is what I want you to believe, but it doesn't necessarily mean that that's the truth.
所以,我是回答这个问题的最佳人选吗?
So am I the best am I the best person to answer that question?
希望他们会
Hopefully, they would
说些好话。
have nice things say.
瑞安。
Ryan.
他们最好别说好话。
They better not have nice things to say.
你的团队最好别说
Your team better not have
那说明我做错了什么。
means I'm doing something wrong.
好吧。
Alright.
当时……
When...
我看到你发的一条推特,你在招工程师,说直接跟我工作,但后面又写的是在德克萨斯州格雷普韦恩现场办公。
I saw a tweet that you put out where you were asking for engineers, and you said work directly with me, but then you said on-site in Grapevine, Texas.
你现在住在德克萨斯吗?
Are you living in Texas?
你住在佛罗里达吗?
Are you living in Florida?
你住在加利福尼亚吗?
Are you living in California?
还是你住在世界上某个偏远的地方,不想告诉我们?
Are you living somewhere remote around the world where you don't wanna tell us?
不是。
No.
我一般住在佛罗里达,但我也到处跑。
I'm I'm generally in Florida, but I'm I'm all over the place also.
而且我正在招移动端工程师,直接跟我一起工作。
And I'm hiring mobile engineers to work directly with me.
那你认识什么人吗?
So you know anyone?
嗯,他们想知道一半现金一半股票。
Well, they wanna know half cash, half stock.
好的。
Okay.
我
I
意思是,如果你提供这个,那你就有……
mean, if you if you offer it, then you got...
你也得付得起。
You gotta also pay it.
多少次……
How many time...
你觉得过去半年里,有多少人跟你开过“一半现金一半股票”的玩笑?
How many jokes do you think people have made to you about half cash, half stocks in the last six months?
那不是玩笑,但确实有很多人这么说。
It wasn't a joke, but there's been a lot of them.
这
It's
简直是史上最不搞笑的玩笑。
the greatest non joke of all time.
好吧。
Alright.
说到企业沟通,我觉得你们在这方面也做得很好。
When when you think about corporate communications, another thing that I think you guys have done a great job.
你们确实有一个沟通团队。
You you do have a communications team.
他们非常出色。
They are very good.
但我觉得你比大多数人更懂得如何直接跟在场的人沟通,也懂得如何直接跟网上的股东沟通。
But you, I think, understand better than most how to communicate directly to the people in this room, communicate directly to shareholders online.
你有没有学到什么?
Are there any things that you've learned?
比如,让……
Like, let...
咱们反过来聊聊。
Let's do a little reverse here.
你指导我。
You you mentor me.
作为一家上市公司的CEO,你会怎么教我以瑞安·科恩的方式跟股东沟通?
What would you tell me as the CEO of a public company on how to communicate with shareholders the Ryan Cohen way?
用我们的业绩和财务表现来评判我们。
Judge us by our results and our financial performance.
所以我们一直避免讲故事,而是专注于我们的……
And so we've stayed away from storytelling and and really focused on our...
关于业务的业绩表现。
On the performance of the business.
而且还有……
And there's...
我想,我尽量不被噪音干扰。
I try not to get distracted, I guess, by by noise.
你看,大多数上市公司的管理层,比如CEO和CFO,他们大部分时间都花在投资者关系和公关上。
And, like, if you look at most public company executives, the CEO and the CFO, they spend the majority of their time on investor relations and public relations.
但你想一想,这除了安抚股东之外,对公司的盈利能力到底有什么实际价值?讽刺的是,如果你花很多时间和股东相处,他们会喜欢你,但这并不会让业务更高效,而且
And when you think about what value that actually adds to the earnings capacity of the business aside from, like, gating shareholders, And and that's the irony is that if you invest a lot of the time with shareholders, they're gonna like you, but that's not gonna make the business more efficient, and
这
it's
也不会为股东创造最大价值。
not gonna maximize value for shareholders.
所以,从效率的角度考虑我的时间,最好的利用方式就是专注于做实事,真正关注业务本身,无论是和工程团队沟通,还是和供应商交流。
So when I think about my time in terms of productivity, the best time that I could spend is focusing on, like, doing real work and actually focusing on the business, whether that's talking to the engineering team, talking to suppliers.
但我觉得那是……
But, I mean, I I think about that's the...
时间是我们拥有的最宝贵的资源。
It's the most valuable commodity we all have is our time.
而且时间是有限的,我们想尽可能高效地利用它。
And it's finite and we want to use it as productively as possible.
那么,当你考虑这些财务业绩时,显然有很多不同的因素会影响它。
So when you're thinking about those financial results, there's obviously many different things that can contribute to that.
你可以增加收入,削减成本,或者进行收购。
You can grow revenue, you can cut costs, you can acquire things.
关于你的业务、你本人以及你的做事方式,有很多不同的说法。
There are many stories told about your business, about you, about your approach.
有时候这些说法来自你们自己。
Sometimes it is coming from you guys.
其他时候则来自别人。
Other times it's coming from others.
展开剩余字幕(还有 89 条)
你是直接忽略那些噪音,然后就说,看,结果会说明一切,你愿意在中间这段时间被误解吗?
Do you just ignore kind of all that noise and you just say, look, the results will speak for themselves and you're willing to be misunderstood for periods of time in between?
还是你觉得回应谣言或者错误说法很重要?
Or do you think that addressing rumors or, you know, maybe misstatements is important?
不。
No.
绝对是前者。
It's definitely the former.
而且……
And the...
我觉得,很多人希望被人喜欢,所以很容易被噪音分心。
I guess, like, lot of people want to be liked, and so it's easy to get distracted by the noise.
所以这就回到你最初的问题,比如,我的员工会怎么形容我?
And so it goes back to your original question in terms of, like, how would my employees describe me?
我希望他们不喜欢我。
I hope they don't like me.
比如说,我父亲是我见过的最优秀的运营者。
Like, my my father was the the best operator I have ever met.
他一天工作都没落下,早上六点打卡上班。
He didn't miss a day of work, clocked in at six a.
下午六点下班。
M, six p.
他熟悉每一个SKU。
M, knew every single SKU.
成本是多少。
It was costs.
利润是多少。
It was margin.
直接和供应商沟通。
Communicated directly with suppliers.
他讨厌那些只坐办公室的人,只喜欢干体力活的人。
Hated people who are doing desk jobs only like the people who are doing physical work.
而且员工们都很喜欢他们。
And employees like them very much.
但实际上,他的员工们并不喜欢他。
Like, his employees really didn't like him.
他经常把员工弄哭,因为这就是生意。
He made his employees cry most of the time because it's business.
如果员工表现不好,他会直接说出来。
And if they weren't doing a good job, he wasn't shy about it.
所以我没有那种想要被人喜欢的渴望。
So I don't have the the desire to, like, to be liked.
我觉得如果你总想着被人喜欢,那你在生活中走不远。
I think that when you wanna be liked, I mean, it doesn't take you very far in life.
最终,人们关心的还是生意好不好。
Ultimately, what people are gonna like is is is the business is the business doing well?
他们喜欢的是结果。
They're gonna like the results.
所以这就是我花时间做的事情。
So that's that's what I spend my time on.
过程中感受到的那些东西……
What what what kind of feels along the way is...
其实没什么大不了的。
Doesn't really make a difference.
你觉得这是从哪儿来的?
Where does that come from, you think?
就是说,你为什么不在乎别人喜不喜欢你?
Like, why do you not care if people like you?
因为我在乎什么呢?
Because why should I?
我要是干得好,他们自然会喜欢我。
They'll like me if I do a good job.
你知道你什么时候最讨人喜欢吗?
You know when you're most like?
你死的时候最受欢迎。
You're most like when you're dead.
那时候大家才真的喜欢你。
That's when people really like you.
确实是这样。
That is true.
我父亲以前常说,没有什么比赢更让人开心的了。
You know, my father used to always say, there's nothing more fun than winning.
所以只要你赢了,大家就都开心。
So if you just win, then everyone has fun.
所以等我不在了,埋到六尺地下的时候。
So when I'm no longer here and I'm six feet under.
什么?
What?
无所谓了。
It doesn't matter.
这很公平。
It's fair.
可能是真的。
Probably true.
你觉得你从哪次失败中学到了东西?
What's a failure that you think you've learned from?
伟大的瑞安·科恩,那个全能的大神。
The great Ryan Cohen, the almighty power.
你大概也搞砸过一两次吧。
You probably screwed up once or twice.
你觉得你从中学到了什么?
What what do you think you've learned from?
嗯,我搞砸过很多次。
Well, I've screwed up many times.
投资GameStop就是一次搞砸。
I mean, investing in GameStop was a screw up.
哥们,让我先简单说一下背景,然后你再告诉我们你从失败中学到了什么。对于那些不了解的人,Ryan 算是买入了 GameStop,觉得挺有意思的。
Dude, give the, I'm gonna give the quick synopsis, then you tell us the failure you learned from is, for those that don't know, Ryan kinda bought into GameStop, thought it was fun.
然后不知怎么的,他们邀请他加入董事会,接着他们就说,好吧。
Then somehow, they asked him to be on the board, and then they were like, okay.
现在你要当 CEO 了。
Now you're gonna be the CEO.
所以时间快进,现在他是 GameStop 的 CEO。
And so fast forward, now he's the CEO of GameStop.
但这并不是他一开始的计划。
But that was not his plan to, to start.
所以那是个错误。
I mean, so that was a mistake.
我犯过很多错误。
I've made a lot of mistake.
但当我陷入像接管 GameStop 这样的局面时,失败是选项之一吗?
But when I end up in a situation, like, you know, taking over GameStop failure, was it an option?
如果是的话,我就跟船一起沉了。
If it was, I was gonna go down with the ship.
所以当你处于没有退路的境地时,那才是成就伟大的时候。
So when you're in a position where there's no exit hatch, that's when that's when greatness is achieved.
当你处于生存模式,没有备选方案时,人们才会发挥出最大的生产力和成果。
That's when you get, like, maximum productivity and results of people is when you're in survival mode, and there's no plan b.
所以我不确定。
So I don't know.
也许我潜意识里把自己置于这样的境地,但那就是人生中收获最大成果的时候。
Maybe I subconsciously put myself in situations like that, but that's when that's when you get the best results in life.
我先提前道个歉。
I apologize in advance.
现在有个记者正在写报道。
You know, a reporter's right in the story right now.
关于瑞安·科恩投资GameStop的最大失败。
Ryan Cohen's biggest failures investing in GameStop.
百分之百。
100%.
我最后一个问题是,当你入土为安时,你希望自己的遗产是什么?
My last question for you is, what do you want your legacy to be when you're six feet under?
人一旦死了,大家也就假装关心几天,然后所有人就继续过自己的日子了。
Once you're dead, people pretend to care for, like, a few days, and then everybody moves on.
所以,是的,我爸爸会说,你只能活一次……
So, yeah, my dad would say, you know, you you only you only go around...
人生只有一次,不如好好享受。
You only go on the ride once, so you might as well enjoy it.
所以我不知道。
So I don't know.
我觉得遗产这东西被高估了。
I think that legacies are overrated.
但你终究会留下一个。
But you're still gonna have one.
那你希望是什么?
So what do you want it to be?
让GameStop扭亏为盈。
Turning around GameStop.
这里长眠着那位让GameStop扭亏为盈的人。
Here lies the man that turned around GameStop.
好。
Alright.
在座的各位除了捧场你的笑话、享受你有趣的采访之外,还能帮你做些什么?
What can people in this room do to help you other than laugh at all your jokes and enjoy your entertaining interviews?
那些跟我们作对的人。
That against us.
这里长眠着那个人。
Here lies the man.
在所有人都不看好他的时候,他让GameStop扭亏为盈。
Turned around GameStop after everyone bet against him.
没错。
Exactly.
好的。
Alright.
感谢你来做这个。
I appreciate you doing this.
我知道你日程很满,听起来是这样。
I know you got a very busy schedule, it sounds like.
所以谢谢你抽出时间,从德州、佛罗里达、月球,或者不管你在哪儿,把自己传送过来。
So thanks for taking the time to to beam yourself in from Texas, Florida, the moon, wherever you are.
我们很快再聊。
We'll do it again soon.
总是很愉快。
Always a pleasure.
好的。
Alright.
再见。
Bye.
关于 Bayt 播客
Bayt 提供中文+原文双语音频和字幕,帮助你打破语言障碍,轻松听懂全球优质播客。