如何在其他人之前找到下一个10倍股 | 埃里克·杰克逊

显然，比特币在八月份出现了大幅上涨。

You know, obviously, Bitcoin had the big jump in August.

我当时说我们的模型有点转向了，在8月14号转为看涨。

And I said our model kinda flipped on, said, you know, get bullish on August 14.

8月12号，在Polymarket上，比特币在8月底达到7万美元的概率只有3%，只有3%。

On August 12, on Polymarket, you, there was 3% odds on Polymarket that Bitcoin would would end the month of August at 70 k, 3%.

显然，比特币经历了一波上涨，最终在月底达到了7.9万美元。

Obviously, like, Bitcoin had a had a run, and it ended the month at 79 k.

所以，群体的智慧并不总是正确的。

So the wisdom of crowds is not always correct.

我们先来谈谈散户投资者，散户投资者的崛起，我认为已经完全改变了公开市场。

Let's talk first about the retail investor and the rise of the retail investor has completely changed, I think public markets.

大多数人会提到Opendoor、GameStop以及其他一些公司。

And most people will point to the Opendoor, the GameStops, you know, a variety of other companies.

但我觉得大家没有意识到，很多上市公司的CEO都会主动联系我。

But I don't think folks realize that a lot of public companies, CEOs reach out to me.

他们可能也会联系你。

They probably reach out to you.

还有另外几个人。

There's a couple of other folks.

他们想和散户投资者互动。

And like, want to engage with the retail investor.

我该怎么做呢？

How do I do that?

我的感受是，现在散户投资者对他们来说很重要。

What, what, and it's my takeaway is just like the retail investor is important now to them.

你看到了什么？

What have you seen?

你做这行已经有一段时间了。

You've been doing this a while.

在你的职业生涯中，这种情况是怎么变化的？

How has that changed throughout your career?

对，我确实觉得是这样。

Yeah, I definitely think that's the case.

我觉得在我加入Silvia董事会之前，我们就聊过这个话题，以及如何与这个重要的利益相关群体互动。

I mean, I think we had that conversation before I joined the board of Silvia about that and how to engage that important stakeholder group.

所以有很多公司都是这么想的。

So there are a lot of companies thinking that way.

我觉得……

I think that...

他们让我上了两次当。

They got me twice.

小心点。

Be careful.

这些瓶子在往外喷。

These bottles are popping.

所以我觉得每个人都想争取散户的支持。

So I think everybody wants to get retail on their side.

我觉得没有一种固定的方法或者现成的智慧来做这件事。

I don't think there's a cookie cutter way to do that or, you know, established wisdom.

但我的意思是，一些基本的事情就是开放、真诚、透明，就像对政客一样，对公司的CEO也是如此。

But I mean, some pretty basic things are be open, be authentic, be transparent, you know, just like, you know, it goes for politicians as much as it does for CEOs of companies.

你要让人们觉得你是个有血有肉的人。

You wanna make people feel you're a human being.

所以，比如开视频财报电话会议，而不是只躲在音频电话后面，我觉得这是与人互动的一个轻松得分的方式。

So doing things like having video earnings calls, as opposed to just hiding behind an audio only earnings call, I think is like an easy layup way to engage with people.

但另一方面……

But the other...

还有一点是关于散户的崛起。

I mean, there's another point about the rise of retail.

我觉得人们会想，哦，现在有了AI。

I think people assume like, oh, AI exists now.

散户要集结支持，从来没有像现在这么容易。

It's never been easier for retail to kind of rally support.

我觉得这不完全对。

I don't think that's totally true.

我的意思是，归根结底，对于任何线上活动或股东群体来说，要想真正对公司产生强大影响，

And what I mean by that is that at the end of the day, for any online campaign, group of shareholders to really have a powerful effect on companies.

需要领导力。

It takes leadership.

领导力在军队里很重要，在社区组织里也很重要，在线上同样重要。

Leadership matters in the military, leadership matters in community organizations and leadership matters online too.

光有AI很厉害，并不意味着事情就会自动发生。

Just because AI is great, doesn't mean that things automatically happen.

比如我有多少多少订阅者，对吧？

Like I have x, you know, subscribers, right?

我每周会做一次那种AMA，就是“嘿，大家随便问”，加入空间，上来，走到麦克风前，直接问我一个问题。

And I, once a week I do this like AMA, like, hey guys, you know, ask me anything, join the spaces, you know, come up, step up to the mic and just ask me a question.

我经常感到惊讶的是，很多人其实更喜欢躲在后面，退一步，然后发文字提问。

And I'm often surprised that people, a lot of people prefer to kinda hide, stand back and ask a text question.

不只是简单地问问题，我觉得散户要聚集起来，还是需要有人站出来带头说，嘿，我们来做这个，我们来做那个。

Not even like just ask know, And talk to the I think, you know, so the opportunity for retail to gather, it still needs somebody to kind of wanna step up on the soapbox and say, Hey, let's do this, let's do that.

这不会像乌合之众那样自然而然地发生。

It doesn't just like happen amorphously, like from the mob, like getting together.

所以，在人类历史上，从来没有比现在更好的时机让散户产生影响，因为AI让这一切变得如此容易，也让了解一家公司的优势和劣势变得更加容易。

And so there's never been a better time in human history for retail to have an impact because AI makes it so easy and AI makes getting to know a company and its strengths and weaknesses easier.

但归根结底，我们每个人都需要站出来，自己做出改变，并发挥领导作用。

But at the end of the day, like we individually have to kind of step up and make a difference ourselves and lead.

这个房间里坐满了独立投资者。

This room is full of independent investors.

现在有成千上万的人在线上观看。

There are thousands of them watching online right now.

你可能是使用AI最频繁的人之一，无论是在研究、投资策略、识别机会，还是在对这些机会进行尽职调查方面。

You are probably one of the most prolific users of AI in your research and your investment strategy in the identification of opportunities, but also the diligence of those opportunities.

你能给我们讲讲你是怎么使用这项技术的吗？也许这个房间里的人也能用这项技术来更好地提升他们的投资方法？

Can you just walk us through how are you using the technology and maybe how could people in this room use the technology to better enhance their investment approach?

嗯，我确实用得很多。

Well, like I use it a lot.

当然。

Absolutely.

而且，这大概在座的大多数人也不会觉得意外。

And you know, this is not gonna be a surprise probably to most people in this room.

但显然，你可以在令牌上浪费很多钱。

But obviously, like you can waste a lot of money on tokens.

我也浪费过。

And I have.

那些简单的问题，比如下一个Opendoor是什么？

And the simplistic queries, like what's the next Opendoor?

比如给我看看下一个我能参与的Opendoor，或者下一个Carvana之类的，通常没什么收获。

You know, like show me the next Opendoor that I can get behind, the next Carvana or something, usually doesn't yield much fruit.

所以我在自己的研究里，用它来尝试解决更复杂的问题。

So the way that I've used it in my own research is to try to get at the more complicated questions.

比如你看到一个领域，有很多玩家在竞争，你真的理解他们之间有什么区别。

Like if you see a space where there are a bunch of players going after it, and you really understand like what differentiates one versus the other.

试着去拆解这些，用AI来分析，比如，A公司是这样做的，B公司是那样做的。

Like trying to unpack that and do some use AI to try to say, Hey, company A is doing it this way, company B is doing it that way.

为什么他们采取不同的方式？

Why are they doing it, going at it differently?

第二家公司相比第一家有什么优势？

What advantage does the second company have over the first?

我发现问这类问题对我来说更有收获。

I find like there's like much more like unlocks for me in asking those kinds of questions.

另外我想说的是，大家可能也意识到了，市面上不同的语言模型之间差别很大，对吧？

And the other thing I'd say is, people again probably have realized this, but there's a big difference between the different LLMs out there, right?

我个人觉得ChatGPT是最有艺术感的。

I personally find ChatGPT is the most like artistic of them.

比如，如果我想写一条推文，或者想做一个PPT。

Like, so if I wanna write a tweet or, hey, I wanna put a PowerPoint together.

我通常发现这样能得到最好的结果。

Like I usually find I get the best results from that.

Claude 也不错，像个能干的老黄牛，我经常用它。

Claude is good and it's kind of like a good workhorse and I use it a lot.

但它没有那种让我眼前一亮的感觉。

But I don't find that same pizzazz with it.

但如果我考虑编程、实际写代码，或者重新设计我正在做的网站之类的，出乎意料的是，我发现 Kimi 是最好的。

But if I'm thinking about programming and actually coding or redesigning like a website that I'm working on or something like that, Surprisingly, I find Kimmy to be the best.

它最全面，最注重细节。

You know, it's the most thorough, the most kind of detail oriented.

所以，要知道用什么工具来达到什么效果，这就是我想说的。

And so you know what tools to leverage, you know, to get what kind of outcome is, you know, what I'd say.

你参与过的公司之一就是 Hut 8，他们看起来做得非常好。

One of the companies you've been involved in is Hut 8 and they seem to be doing very well.

他们的股价显然大幅上涨，但你最近去看了他们正在建设的一个数据中心园区。

They obviously have seen significant move in their stock price, but you recently went down and saw one of the data center campuses that they're building.

我们刚才还在聊，亲眼看到这些东西有多鼓舞人心，甚至可以说是多震撼。

And we were just talking about how inspirational, maybe how incredible it is to actually see it.

你能跟大家描述一下，当你去参观这些地方时，到底发生了什么吗？我们一直在说用AI，但实际上背后有硬件、施工、电力、土地等等，这些都是实实在在为了让我们能用上AI而建起来的。

Can you describe to people like what's happening when you go and you visit one of these sites and, you know, we talk about using AI, but like there is hardware and construction and power and land and all this stuff that is really being built to empower us to use it.

对，确实。

Yeah, for sure.

这就像是一个很好的例子，说明你可以整天坐在屏幕后面，觉得自己好像很了解Iron、Cypher、Hut，还有Nebius和Core Weave的区别。

Was like, I mean, it's a good example of how you could sit behind a screen all day and you could think that, you know, oh, I know iron, Cypher, Hut what differentiates Nebius, Core Weave.

我大概在过去一年半里一直在投资这些公司。

And I've been investing in those names for probably the last year and a half.

我以为自己很了解它们，但这次是我第一次真正亲自去参观一个正在开发中的园区。

And I think I thought I knew them, but this was the first time that I actually went down physically and toured a campus that was being developed.

它有649英亩。

It's six forty nine acres.

叫River Bend。

It's called River Bend.

它在路易斯安那州巴吞鲁日以北大约半小时车程的地方。

It's about a half an hour north of Baton Rouge in Louisiana.

我之前跟安东尼说，你到了巴吞鲁日，机场很小，城镇也很小，虽然那里有路易斯安那州立大学什么的。

And I was saying to Anthony before this, you know, you get in Baton Rouge, pretty small airport, like, you know, pretty small town, even though they've got LSU there and everything.

但当你开车出去三十分钟，你会看到旧世界和新世界，对吧？

But when you drive out thirty minutes outside, like you see the the the old world and the new world, right?

你会看到一个郊区小镇，然后突然看到壳牌或埃克森美孚的炼油厂，它们很大，但你知道，已经生锈了，也不是很新。

You see like a suburban town and then you all of a sudden you see these like oil refineries from Shell or ExxonMobil or whatever that are big, but you know, rusting, you know, and not all that new.

显然，那是那些社区里很多人过去赚钱的老方式。

Obviously the old ways that a lot of people in those communities made money.

然后你继续开，继续开，基本上就到了荒郊野外，突然之间，六百四十九英亩的土地在森林中间展开，他们那里有猫，到处都在清理土地，平整地面，几百人在忙碌，建设这个园区，一个巨大的场地。

And then you keep going and going and you're basically in the middle of nowhere and all of a sudden six forty nine acres opens up, just in the middle of a forest that they are with, you've got cats everywhere, clearing land, leveling hundreds of people, teaming, building out this site for this campus, a massive site.

雅各布斯是那里的首选工程承包商。

And Jacobs was like the engineer contractor of choice there.

你会看到一整块区域专门给维谛，就是做冷却系统那家公司。

You see like a whole section devoted to Vertiv, the company that does the cooling systems and stuff.

Hut公司大约有15个人，从二月份起就一直住在工地上。

Hut's got about 15 people who live physically have been on the site since February.

他们住在巴吞鲁日。

They live in Baton Rouge.

他们每天通勤到园区。

They commute every way to the campus.

他们有点像指挥者。

And they're kind of like the conductors.

他们得协调从工人到管理层等各个层面的人，知道怎么建这个项目。

Like they've got to coordinate all these different folks from the workers on on up to know how to build it.

在我去那里之前，我从未见过那么大的变压器或变电站。

And until I was there, I'd I'd never seen transformers that big or substations that big.

这类场地所需的电力真是惊人。

Like the power that these kinds of sites need is truly phenomenal.

而且规模如此庞大。

And just how massive this was.

而这还只是第一个园区的第一期工程。

And this was just phase one of the first campus.

而且那里来了好多政客。

And there were a ton of politicians there.

我开着租来的车过去。

Like I drove up in my rental car.

那里有个大帐篷，联合租赁公司靠这些项目赚翻了。

There was like some big tent that United Rentals is making bank, you know, off of these things.

就是联合租赁和卡特彼勒。

Like United Rentals and CAT.

现在我明白为什么过去五年它们的股价涨得那么高了，都在建这些数据中心。

Now I understand why their stocks are way up in the last five years, building out these data centers.

但我走进一个帐篷，我以为我走的是正确的入口。

But I go into this one tent, I thought I was going in the right entrance.

结果我走的是后门。

It turns out I was going in the back entrance.

突然，小唐纳德出来了，身边围着大概八个特勤局的人，全都上下打量我，好像我要袭击他似的。

All of a sudden, Don Junior comes out with like about eight Secret Service surrounding him, all kind of looking me up and down like I'm gonna jump him or something.

路易斯安那州的州长也在场，那场面简直是一片欢腾。

The governor of Louisiana was there, and it was a total love fest.

社区里的人都很高兴，因为这么多人来这里建设这个园区。

Like, you know, the community was happy that all these people were there building out this campus.

首席执行官阿舍·格努特，今年32岁。

The CEO, Asher Gnute, who's 32.

他是个非常聪明的人。

He's like a super smart guy.

他不太出名。

He's not that well known.

所以我觉得Hut最终会成为一个被误解的公司。

So I think Hut ends up being kind of a misunderstood company.

他……

He...

他讲话完全像个政客。

And he spoke like a total politician.

他说的都是……

He was talking...

他根本没谈工程。

He wasn't talking about engineering.

他完全没提AI。

He wasn't talking about AI at all.

他整场演讲都在讲人。

He spent his whole speech talking about people.

讲社区里的人什么的。

People in the community and so forth.

还说这个项目只是他们在路易斯安那州计划开发的十个左右地点之一。

And how this thing was just one of like 10 sites that they looked forward to developing in Louisiana.

所以如果你是从外星来的，然后参加了这个活动，你肯定会……

So if you were dropped in from a spaceship, you would have, and then you attended this event.

然后那天晚些时候，有人过来跟你说，嘿，你知道吗，大家都讨厌AI数据中心？

And then later on that day, somebody come up to you and said, hey, did you know that everybody hates AI data centers?

他们都在抵制这些数据中心，觉得它们是邪恶的，你要是当时在路易斯安那，你简直不敢相信。

And they're banning them, you know, and they think they're evil and they're, you know, you just wouldn't have believed it had you been down there in Louisiana.

因为那些政客们对这事儿简直爱不释手。

Because like these politicians, you know, they couldn't get enough of this.

所以，但我有点更明白了，对于所有这些公司，比如Navias之类的。

So, but I sort of better understood that, you know, for all these companies, Navias or whatever.

我们都听到这些新闻稿，说他们拿到了微软或谁给的200亿美元、五年期的合同之类的。

I mean, we all hear these these news releases that they're getting these like $20,000,000,000 five year contracts and so forth from Microsoft or whoever.

但这里真的有个协调上的挑战。

But there's a real coordination challenge.

而且，这也不是千篇一律的。

Like, and it's not just cookie cutter again.

所以我觉得像Hut这样的公司有机会，而且我觉得他们比大多数公司做得更好，可以向世界展示，因为现在这还算是未经验证的。

And so I think the opportunity exists for companies like a Hut, and I think they do it better than most, to show to the world, because it's sort of like unproven right now.

这就像是他们正在开发的大型园区中的第一个，他们可以……

This is like the first of like a big campus that are developing, that they can...

他们……

They...

他们……

They're...

他们可能是这场协调游戏中最擅长的。

They could be the best at this coordination game.

因为协调游戏的关键在于如何点亮兆瓦级甚至吉瓦级的电力。

Because the coordination game is how you light up megawatts and then gigawatts of power.

以及如何经济地做到这一点。

And how you do it economically.

另外一点是，他们为这个河床项目筹集了35亿美元的无追索权债务，而不是稀释股东的股份。

That's the other thing is that they had raised for this one riverbed site, they raised 3,500,000,000 in non recourse debt instead of diluting their shareholders.

现在还有其他玩家，我提到过他们，他们进行了大规模的股权融资，比如60亿美元，这会稀释……

Now there've been other players, I mention them, they've done big, you know, dollars 6,000,000,000 like equity offerings and stuff like that diluting to...

他们解释说，你知道，从长远来看，我们都会过得更好。

Justified it saying like, know, this is gonna be, you know, we'll all be better off in the long run.

他们……

They...

Hut承担了风险。

Hut's taken a risk.

这就像一场竞赛，看你能多快建成这个园区。

And it's a race to like, how quickly can you get this campus built?

你能多快把所有这些不同的人协调起来，让这个项目启动？

How quickly can you coordinate all these different people together to get this thing lit up?

一旦你做到了，整个项目的风险就降低了。

And then once you do, you've de risked the whole project.

所以对他们来说，他们可能一开始就得借大约100亿美元来筹备。

So for them, they'll probably have to borrow something like $10,000,000,000 from the beginning to line up.

而且有谷歌在财务上兜底。

And they've got Google backstopping financially.

他们还有FluidStack。

They got FluidStack.

他们为这个地方找到了主要租户Anthropic。

They landed their anchor tenant in Anthropic for this place.

一旦这些要素都到位，项目启动后，我估算他们可能创造了大约150亿美元的新增价值。

And then once all those pieces are in place and the things lit, my calculations are they probably have created like a $15,000,000,000 of extra value that didn't exist before.

所以除了要还的那100亿之外。

So on top of the 10,000,000,000 that paying that back.

他们的计划是，好，现在我们额外创造了150亿。

So their plan is, okay, now we create an extra 15,000,000,000.

好，我们把它投入到下一个项目。

Okay, we're gonna put it in the next project.

所以他们还有在德克萨斯州，我想是东德克萨斯，有个叫Beacon Point的项目。

So they got something Beacon Point in Texas, East Texas, I think it is.

然后，一旦他们从那个项目拿到150亿或200亿，就会投入到下一个项目。

And then it'll, and once they get the 15,000,000,000 or 20,000,000,000 from that project into the next one.

而且整个过程都没有通过增发股票来稀释股东权益。

And all the while not diluting the shareholders with these like equity offerings.

所以我离开时就想，嘿，这是市场上最被误解的股票之一。

So I came away thinking like, hey, this is one of the most misunderstood stocks out there.

通常这是个好兆头，因为Carvana也有这个特点。

Usually, that's a good sign because that's that's what Carvana had in common.

Opendoor也有这个特点，对于……

That's what Opendoor had in common for the...

这些股票能连续多年大幅上涨。

These stocks that can go on these big, like, runs over multiple years.

今天的节目由Arch Public赞助播出。

Today's episode is brought to you by Arch Public.

Arch Public刚刚将其智能交易平台扩展到加密货币之外，所以请注意。

Arch Public has just expanded its agentic trading platform beyond crypto, so pay attention.

这可是个大新闻。

This is a big one.

现在他们正在把策略自动化应用到股票、大宗商品和ETF上，我觉得这会非常厉害。

Now they are automating strategies across stocks, commodities, and ETFs, and I think that this is gonna be huge.

现在你可以自动在一个市场创下历史新高时锁定利润，然后把资金转到其他更有机会的市场。

You can now automatically take profits when one market hits new all time highs and rotate that capital into other markets showing more opportunity.

不管你是把资金转到AI股票、黄金，还是投资标普500，或者积累比特币，Arch Public都能给你的投资策略带来真正的纪律和自动化。

Whether you're rotating capital into AI stocks, gold, if you're investing in the S and P five hundred, or you're accumulating Bitcoin, Arch Public brings real discipline and automation to your investment strategy.

另外，他们还推出了一个很强大的新工具，叫税务亏损收割。

Additionally, they've launched a powerful new tax loss harvesting tool.

因为加密货币波动大，而且不受洗售规则限制，Arch Public可以用亏损来抵消收益，同时不影响你的长期持仓。

With crypto being so volatile and its exemption from the wash sale rule, Arch Public can offset gains with losses without compromising your long term positions.

这正是每个认真投资者都会做的事情。

It's exactly what every serious investor does.

机构级别的自动化，适用于所有主要资产类别。

Institutional grade automation that works across every major asset class.

不再有情绪化交易，不再错过税务机会，只有更聪明、更省心的策略执行。

There's no more emotional trading, no more missing tax opportunities, just smarter, hands free execution of your preferred strategies.

现在就访问 archpublic.com。

Go to archpublic.com right now.

联系他们的团队，约个时间，如果你愿意的话带上你的账户，然后你就能了解自动化交易能为你带来什么。

Connect with their team, set up a time, bring your account if you'd like, then you can learn what automated trading can do for you.

archpublic.com。

Archpublic.com.

每个收听这个节目的人，你大概都持有比特币，而且你获得它的方式都一样。

Every person listening to this show, you probably own Bitcoin, and you got it the same way.

你在交易所按全价买的。

You paid full price on an exchange.

但有一小部分企业主、家族办公室和拥有精明会计师的投资者，他们正悄悄地用另一种方式获得比特币。

But there's a smaller group of business owners, family offices, and investors with sharp CPAs, and they're quietly getting theirs a very different way.

他们拥有制造比特币的机器。

They own the machines that make it.

挖矿。

Mining.

它的运作方式是这样的。

Here's how it works.

你购买矿机，Simple Mining 会在他们位于爱荷华州的设施里托管并运行这些矿机，使用的是你自己永远拿不到的工业电价。

You buy the miners, and Simple Mining hosts and runs them at their facilities in Iowa on industrial power rates you could never get on your own.

他们挖出的比特币会直接从你的矿机转到你的钱包里。

The Bitcoin they mine goes straight from your machine to your wallet.

现在我觉得这件事有意思，有两个原因。

There's two reasons I find this interesting right now.

第一，经济账。

One, the economics.

便宜的电价让你能以折扣价或现货价把电转换成比特币。

Cheap power lets you convert electricity into Bitcoin at a discount or spot.

你是在以低于其他人支付的标价来获取这个资产。

You're acquiring the asset below the sticker price that everyone else pays.

但第二点，请仔细听，你今年收入不错。

But second, and listen closely, you've got a big income year.

矿机被归类为计算机设备。

Miners are classified as computer equipment.

设备就意味着折旧。

Equipment means depreciation.

符合条件的买家可以在第一年就全额抵扣购买费用。

Qualifying buyers can write off the entire purchase in year one.

这和房地产投资者几十年来用的策略一样，只不过现在用在了比特币上。

It's the same playbook real estate investors have run for decades, pointed at Bitcoin.

你的会计师会在年底前想看到这个，而且现在有很吸引人的融资方案，你可以在不出售任何资产的情况下部署这些设备。

Your CPA will want to see this before the end of the year, and so with attractive financing available, you can deploy these assets without selling any of your assets to do it.

这不是什么小打小闹的作坊。

This is not some garage operation.

Simple Mining 运营着超过四万台矿机，并且刚刚被 Inc. 评为爱荷华州增长最快的公司。

Simple Mining runs over 40,000 machines and was just ranked the fastest growing company in Iowa on the Inc.

5000强。

5,000.

他们整理了一份很有价值的资料，叫做《2026年比特币挖矿蓝图》。

They put together a valuable resource called the twenty twenty six Bitcoin Mining Blueprint.

里面涵盖了投资者在配置挖矿资产时常犯的五个错误，以及如何在投入资金前避免这些错误。

It covers the five mistakes investors make when allocating to mining and how to avoid them before deploying capital.

你可以在simplemining.io/pump免费获取。

You can access it for free at simplemining.io/pump.

网址是simplemining.io/pump。

That's simplemining.io/pump.

今天就去看一看吧。

Go check it out today.

我喜欢你这样的描述，因为我觉得，说起来有点奇怪，散户投资者其实对的时候比错的时候多得多。

I like that you describe it this way because I think, in a weird way, the retail investors have been right way more than they've been wrong.

现在我觉得华尔街也开始意识到，他们不得不跟随或者关注散户投资者，这和主流说法正好相反。

And now I think Wall Street is waking up to the fact that they have to follow or pay attention to the retail investor, which is the opposite of the narrative.

当你发现这些被误解的东西时，你怎么建立信心，确信自己是对的，而不是仅仅觉得自己与众不同、自己是对的？

When you find these things that are misunderstood, how do you build the conviction to know that you are right and not just like, it's not that I'm different and right.

我其实就是又不一样又笨。

I'm just different and dumb essentially.

因为市场定价的是别的东西，而我分析错了。

Because the market is pricing something else and I misanalyze this.

我觉得这就是试错。

I mean, I think it's just trial and error.

你得……

I mean, you got...

而且你得接受自己有时候会错，或者太早进场。

And you gotta accept the fact that you're gonna be wrong, you know, sometimes or too early.

你知道，Opendoor就表现得很棒。

You know, I've you know, Opendoor worked great.

去年，股价经历了一段疯狂的两年……

You know, last year, stock went on a, you know, killer like two year...

两个月的上涨，从大概50……

Two month run from like 50...

哦，我大概是在去年九月我们在这儿的时候，从70美分左右买到了差不多11美元，几乎接近最高点。

You know, oh, I got in like in the 70¢ range to like $11 almost in September when we were, you know, here last year, I think.

差不多就在最高点附近。

It was pretty close to the top.

然后显然从那以后股票就一直在挣扎。

And then obviously the stock struggled since then.

股票本身没什么问题。

Nothing's wrong with the stock.

CAS也没什么问题，你们可能也知道，我觉得没有人能做得更好了。

Nothing's wrong with CAS, as you guys probably know from, I don't think there's anybody that could be doing a better job.

但有时候整个行业会被一起拖下水，就像把婴儿和洗澡水一起倒掉一样。

But there are these times where the baby gets thrown out with the bathwater in the sector.

就像今年早些时候我们看到的那样，按照传统观点，所有SAS股票现在都应该已经死了。

Like we saw earlier this year, like all SAS stocks were gonna be, should have been dead by now according to the conventional wisdom.

但最后我看了一眼，CrowdStrike今年涨了125%。

And yet, you know, last I looked CrowdStrike's up 125% on the year.

Twilio今年涨了100%。

You know, Twilio is up 100% on the year.

但那个领域里有些股票，比如Zoom。

But there are some stocks in that space like Zoom.

Zoom Info跌得很惨。

Zoom info is down a ton.

所以传统观点里确实有点道理，但同时也存在机会，可以从中筛选出真正的赢家，抓住那个大家都挤到船一边的时刻。

So, I mean, there was a kernel of truth in the conventional wisdom, but then there was the opportunity to kind of like, you know, sort through and find the real winners and take advantage of that, you know, moment in time where like everybody got to one side of the boat.

所以我觉得，Opendoor会成为那种案例，等过一两年或三年回头看，会发现它当时确实被不公平地惩罚了。

So I think, Opendoor is gonna be proven to be one of those cases of that when we look back in a year or two or three that, yeah, was unfairly punished during this.

我想这也有道理，因为当时收益率飙升之类的，但他们做的一切都是对的。

I guess it made sense because the tenure was really ripping and all that kind of stuff, but they were doing all the right things.

你知道，对于有耐心的人来说，我觉得他们会得到回报。

And you know, for the patient ones, I think they'll be paid off.

我觉得很多人对你很感兴趣，因为你敢于公开说出自己的想法。

I think a lot of people are fascinated by you in that you're not scared to publicly state what you think.

你对的时候比错的时候多。

You've been right more than you've been wrong.

你出了很多很棒的说唱解说视频，不是真的说唱，而是用商业视角来解读嘻哈和说唱世界。

You put out amazing explanatory rap videos, not, not rapping, but explaining the hip hop and rap world via a business lens.

而且你显然也在管理资金。

And then you also obviously manage money as well.

而且你实际上也在投资这些东西。

And then you're actually investing in these things.

你不仅仅是在创作内容之类的。

You're not just, you know, creating content or something like that.

你每天的生活是什么样的？

What's your day like on a on a daily basis?

比如，埃里克·杰克逊平常的一天都做些什么？

You know, like what what do you do in kind of the average day of Eric Jackson?

我通常第一件事就是做我的每日视频。

I usually do my like daily videos, like first thing.

如果我早上五点起来，前一天晚上没做的话，我就会想，今天到底要聊什么呢？

So if I'm up at like five or something, if I haven't done it the night before, I'm trying to like, okay, what the heck am I gonna talk about today?

我最好的视频点子。

My best ideas for the videos.

这个想法是慢慢演变出来的。

It's kind of evolved over time.

我儿子朱利安就坐在前排，穿着蓝衬衫，他今年17岁。

I have my son Julian here in the front row in the blue shirt, who is, he's 17.

我在做Opendoor宣传的时候，站在德雷克家门口的那个主意就是他想的。

He was the one who came up with the idea when I was doing the Opendoor campaign about like standing in front of Drake's house.

因为他基本上就是说，爸，大多数人都不看CNBC、福克斯商业频道或者彭博。

And because basically he was like, dad, most people don't watch CNBC or Fox Business or Bloomberg.

那你怎么才能让那些人知道Opendoor有多好呢？

So how are you gonna reach those people and try to keep, you know, tell them how great Opendoor is?

所以我就那么做了，而且他还说，你应该每天都这么做，直到德雷克买一股或者什么的。

And, you know, so I did that and he was the one who said, you know, you should do it every day until like Drake does, you know, buys a share or something.

他是马上就听了，还是跟你争了一下？

Did listen right away or did he fight you?

他跟你争了？

He fought you?

他马上就听了？

He listened right away?

哦，那挺有意思的。

Oh, that's interesting.

头几天他是我的摄像师，因为那时候正好是夏天。

He was my cameraman for the first few days because it the middle of summer.

社交媒体经理就在这儿呢。

Social media manager right here.

我以前常听他说

I used to hear him

有时候会这么说。

say that sometimes.

但后来就有点无聊了。

But then, you know, kind of boring.

所以我得做点别的来保持大家的兴趣什么的。

So, you know, I gotta do something more to keep people's interests and stuff.

然后事情就慢慢发展了，今年夏天早些时候Drake出了新专辑。

And then it sort of evolved and Drake came out with a new album earlier this summer.

所以我想，也许我应该开始聊聊，我不能像Joe Budden那样对押韵的措辞发表评论。

So I thought, well, maybe I should like start talking about, I can't be Joe Budden sort of given my critiques on the eloquence of the rhyme.

所以也许我可以多谈谈嘻哈的商业方面，比如像这样的问题：Drake会不会和环球音乐续约？

So maybe I could talk more about the business of hip hop and some of these questions like, is Drake gonna resign with Universal Music?

然后它就自己发展起来了。

And it kind of took on a life of its own.

现在我在社交媒体上有了一群追随者，他们不关注股票，但主要对嘻哈感兴趣。

And there's been this whole like community of followers now that I have on social media that don't follow stocks, but they're primarily interested in hip hop.

但现在，因为他们有时听我谈论股票和市场，他们就说，嘿，我想投资股市。

But now, because they hear me sometimes talk about stocks and markets, they're like, hey, you know, I wanna invest in the stock market.

我想让我的家人过上好日子。

I wanna raise my family up.

所以这就像是两个世界碰撞在一起，就像我们去年讨论的那些关于散户股东崛起的想法，比如你会花时间做研究，然后支持几只股票，像Opendoor或Carvana这样的，它们真的能对生活产生很大的影响。

And so it kind of like worlds collide and like all the rising dynasty ideas that we talked about last year of like, you know, where retail shareholders, where you're gonna try to spend some time doing research and getting behind a few stocks, like an Opendoor or Carvana that could really make a big difference in their lives.

这其实是一个很普遍的事情。

Like that's kind of like a universal thing.

所以我试着在早上发一个有趣的视频，然后马上跳出来，进入市场话题，看看今天发生了什么，十年期国债怎么样了？

So, you know, I try to put an interesting video out like right in the morning and then immediately kind of jump out of that, get into the markets, what's going on, what's happening with the tenure today?

我怎么能用AI来更好地理解十年期国债到底发生了什么？

You know, how can I use AI to kind of better understand exactly what's going on with the ten year?

更重要的是，它涨得这么快意味着什么？

And more importantly, you know, what does it mean that it's gone up so quickly?

这会对Opendoor产生什么影响？

How's gonna affect Opendoor?

这会对我的投资组合里的其他股票，比如Hut，产生什么影响？

How's that gonna Hut and any other stocks in my portfolio?

试着问这类问题。

Try to ask those kinds of questions.

当然，还要观察市场在一天中的走势。

And obviously watch how the market's progressing during the day.

我在想，能不能做一些长篇的文字或视频内容，更好地解释市场正在发生什么，诸如此类的事情。

Trying to think of long form written or video pieces I could be doing to kind of better explain what's happening in the markets and stuff like that.

所以我有点像那种注意力不太集中的人。

So I'm kind of like an ADHD guy.

我喜欢在不同事情之间跳来跳去，而不是连续八小时死磕一个问题，而是来回切换。

So like I like jumping around and not just like spending like eight hours straight on one problem, but like hopping back and forth.

而且这种方式对我来说挺有效的。

And it's that works for me.

当你考虑在当前市场投资时，感觉我们即将迎来全天候交易。

When you think about investing in today's market, it feels like we're gonna get twenty four seven trading.

感觉我们即将看到股票、公司、收入和利润增长的速度出现快速加速。

It feels like we are going to get this like rapid acceleration in how fast stocks, companies, revenue profits can grow.

而且我们还有个大背景，就是政府永远不会停止印钱。

And then we also have the backdrop of the governments are never gonna stop printing money.

那你现在怎么看投资或者怎么构建投资组合？

How do you think about investing or constructing a portfolio today?

你的投资组合里都是什么？是不是百分之百全是股票？

What's in your portfolio, you know, in terms of are you a 100% equities?

你还有其他资产吗？

Do you have other assets?

你就大概说说你构建投资组合的思路吧。

Just kind of talk through, you know, your approach to that portfolio construction.

我算是比较偏向风险高的那一类。

I'm more on the like riskier side of the spectrum.

所以我的投资组合比大多数人能接受的更集中。

So I'm more concentrated than, you know, probably most people would be comfortable with.

我更倾向于把很大一部分集中投资放在一些小盘股、成长股上，比如像Hut或者Opendoor这样的公司。

I'm more comfortable, you know, having a good chunk of that concentrated portfolio more smaller names, smaller cap, growthy names like a Hut or Opendoor.

还有，我现在也很喜欢Nextdoor这家公司。

Also like Nextdoor is one I like a lot right now.

有一家公司叫Dave，他们通过Plaid的集成，给人们提供大概200美元的小额发薪日贷款。

There's a company called Dave that does like small $200 kind of payday type loans to people using like a Plaid integration.

所以我喜欢那些比较非传统的公司。

So I like those kind of more unconventional names.

而且，我也非常喜欢加密货币。

And, but I do love crypto as well.

我对加密货币很热衷，花了很多时间研究它。

I'm big on crypto, spent a lot of time focused on crypto.

所以对我来说，这大概占了我投资和思考的90%。

So for me, that's probably 90% of what I play in and think about in terms of my exposure.

我觉得我在构建这些投资组合时犯的最大错误，就是太早进入一个故事。

And I think the biggest mistakes that I've made, like in constructing those kinds of names is just being too early to a story.

你可能对一个故事完全判断正确，但市场真正注意到它可能还需要两年的时间。

You could be totally right about a story, but we might be like two years away from it really starting to play out in a way that the market's gonna notice.

所以我大部分时间都在想，一旦我说服自己，好吧，这是个有趣的故事。

And so probably like I spend most of my time saying, once I convince myself like, okay, this is an interesting story.

它有独特性。

It's differentiated.

比如，现在是不是合适的时机？

Like, is right for right now?

是不是快要爆发了？

Is about to inflect?

这家公司的增长率有没有什么变化，我们会不会看到营收增长从10%突然跳到30%，以及为什么会出现这种情况，诸如此类的问题。

Is there something in the growth rates of this company that we're gonna stop seeing 10% revenue growth, 10% and suddenly like 30% revenue growth and why and all that kind of stuff.

所以，这些问题的答案，只有在你真正踩过坑、在选股上犯过错误之后才能学到。

So that's if, you know, and you only learn those kinds of questions, like just from obviously like stubbing your toe and making mistakes on names.

我知道这个问题有点难回答，但你是怎么卖出的？

So I know this is a loaded question, but how do you sell?

我确信这比买入难多了。

I'm convinced that's way harder than buying.

我能挑出很多会涨的股票，但有时候你会来回折腾。

You know, I can pick a lot of names that are gonna go up, but sometimes you round trip it.

有时候你卖了，有时候你卖了之后它还在涨。

Sometimes you sell, sometimes you sell and then it keeps going.

就是有各种不同的情况。

I mean, there's all these like variations.

那你大概是怎么判断什么时候卖、怎么卖的呢？

So what is your maybe approach to knowing when and how to sell?

对，首先你得了解自己。

Yeah, first of all, you gotta know yourself.

而且，我算是比较乐观的人，世界上有些人比较悲观，对吧？

And like, so I'm more of the optimist, you know, and there are some people in the world that are more of the pessimist, right?

所以我们都有对的时候，但也不是永远都对。

And so, we can both have our moments to be right, but we're not always right either way.

所以当你是个乐观主义者，你显然会持有太久。

And so when you're an optimist, you obviously hang on too long.

你太相信这个故事了。

You believe in the story too much.

所以在个股上，就是要搞清楚，比如，我对CEO、管理层的判断是对还是错？

So in individual equity names, it's trying to understand like, hey, did I get it right or wrong about the quality of the CEO, quality of the management?

我是不是进场太早了？

Was I early here?

跟我六个月或八个月前进场时相比，这个故事有没有发生实质性的变化？还是说只是最近一个季度发生了什么？

Has something changed materially in this story compared to when I got into it, I don't know, six months ago, eight months ago versus like what just happened in the last quarter?

如果上个季度他们没达标，那是一次小失误，还是业务开始走下坡路的征兆？

Was that last quarter if they missed, was it a blip or is it the beginning of something like more ominous here in terms of the business changing?

不过，对我这种比较乐观的人来说，有个好处是，过去几年我花了很多时间在AI模型上，特别是围绕比特币的。

What's been positive though, for a guy like me, who's more optimistic and helpful in answering that question of when you get out is I've been working, spending a lot of time over the last few years on AI models, specifically around Bitcoin.

所以我把这些模型卖给了叫SRXH的公司，我记得是去年12月宣布的。

And so I sold those models to a company called SRXH, you know, I don't know, six I guess last December we announced it.

但交易到六月才完成。

And the deal only closed in June.

现在我们开始把它落实到位。

Now we're starting to put it into place.

这周我们宣布了要把它做成一个ETF。

We made an announcement this week that we're going to turn it into like an ETF.

但我们一直在实时运行这些模型。

But we've been running the models obviously in real time.

基本上就是一个判断比特币市场处于什么状态的模型。

And it's basically a kind of what kind of Bitcoin market are we in model.

也就是说，我们现在是处于比特币的牛市吗？

So are we in a bull market for Bitcoin?

还是处于一个涨跌互现的震荡市场？

Are we in a mixed choppy market?

或者我们正处于熊市？

Or are we in a bear market?

而且当市场从一个状态切换到另一个状态时，它会提前大约三十天给你提示，告诉你价格可能会往哪个方向走。

And it gives you about a thirty days advance notice when you sort of flip from one of those regimes into the next one about where the price is gonna go.