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我觉得现在推动加密货币的主要因素，就是新玩家不断涌入。
I think most of what's driving crypto right now is a combination of new players coming in.
这就是牛市的样子，你说得对。
This is what a bull market is about, and you're right.
FOMO很快就会开始蔓延，非常快。
FOMO is gonna start to kick in very, very soon.
我之前说过，比特币突破82000的时候，就是牛市趋势的确认。
I said before when Bitcoin got above 82,000, that was the confirmation of the bull trend.
我觉得我们现在就处在这个阶段。
I think we're in that.
基本面每天都在变得越来越强。
The fundamental side's getting stronger and stronger by the day.
我觉得我们现在正处于一个即将爆发的节点，尤其是今天发生的那些事。
I I think we're at a point where this stuff is about to kinda take off, particularly with what happened today with the
大家好，最近怎么样？
What's going on, guys?
今天我们和Jordi Visser进行了一场精彩的对话。
Today, we got a great conversation with Jordi Visser.
在这一期里，我们要聊聊宏观世界正在发生什么。
In this one, we're gonna talk about what's going on in the macro world.
为什么数据明明显示应该看涨，大家却这么害怕？
Why are people so fearful when the data actually says you should be bullish?
AI那边情况怎么样？
What's going on in AI?
为什么个人AI助手的兴起对代币消费非常利好？
Why is the rise of personal AI assistants very bullish for token consumption?
那些大型模型实验室到底有没有面临压力？
Are the big model labs actually coming under pressure or not?
我和Jordi意见不合，但后来我们又在某个重要话题上达成了一致，我觉得你们会喜欢这个部分。
Jordi and I disagree, and then we agree on a big topic that I think you're gonna enjoy.
然后我们聊了加密货币、公开股票，还有他看到的大家投资组合的变化，年底应该怎么走，明年我们往哪儿去，也许他还会透露一点内幕消息，他称之为“微时刻”，我觉得你们所有人都会非常感兴趣。
And then we talk about crypto, public equities, and what he sees going on in people's portfolios, how the end of the year should go, where we're going next year, and maybe he even gives a little bit of alpha, something he calls the micron moment, which I think that all of you will be very interested in.
这是我与Jordi Visser的最新对话。
Here's my latest conversation with Jordi Visser.
好的，Jordi。
Alright, Jordi.
好像我遇到的每一个传统行业的人都在为宏观因素抓狂。
It seems like every single person I talk to from the traditional world, they are freaking out about macro factors.
他们说利率在上升。
They're saying interest rates are going up.
油价到了100美元。
Oil's at a 100.
十年期国债收益率一直在涨。
The ten year keeps going higher.
他们非常担心大崩盘，也就是迈克尔·伯里时刻即将来临。
They are so worried that the big crash, the Michael Burry moment is coming.
我不明白
I don't get the
感觉你并不认同。
sense that you agree.
其实我觉得这很愚蠢。
I actually think it's stupid.
播客到此结束。
Podcast over.
我的意思是，这周我在X上发了不少关于这个的帖子。
I mean, I've posted in x a bunch about this this week.
我做了个订阅者视频，里面大概有25页幻灯片，讲的就是为什么这不过是又一条末日论调，比如关税、战争、油价要涨到天上去，还有所有这些乱七八糟的东西。
I did a subscriber video, and I had, like, 25 slides of of why this is just added to the list of doomer stuff that comes out, tariffs, and the war, and oil's going to infinity, and all of these things.
所以，经济就是这么运作的。
So this is the way the economy works.
美国的经济非常多元化。
We have a very diverse economy in The US.
理论上，我们的股市也是多元化的。
We have a diverse stock market, theoretically.
标普500里有500家公司。
We have 500 names in the S and P 500.
在金融危机之前，利率的影响非常大。
Rates mattered a lot before the great financial crisis.
在金融危机期间，利率的影响也很大，因为当时经济主要靠汽车和房地产，所以我们才搞出了像领先经济指标这样的东西。
They mattered a lot into the great financial crisis, because the economy was built on autos, housing, that's why we created things like the leading economic indicators.
我们有一个叫金融状况指数的东西。
We have what's called financial conditions index.
金融危机之后，一切都变了。
Everything changed after the great financial crisis.
所以关于利率，大家首先想到的是，利率处于二十年来的高位。
So the first thing about rates are everyone's like, we're at twenty year highs for rates.
那我们先来看看这意味着什么。
Well, let's just go back to what that means.
这意味着，按照定义，利率水平正好回到金融危机之前的样子。
That means, by definition, rates just before the great financial crisis.
我不确定有没有人注意到，但为了让我们摆脱金融危机，他们不得不把利率降到零。
I'm not sure anyone got the memo, but to save us from the great financial crisis, they had to move rates to zero.
然后我们在零利率上停留了很长时间，才把问题解决。
And then we stayed at zero for a long time to get us out of the problem.
所以，实际上，利率的变化就是回归正常了。
So, really, what's happened to rates is they've normalized.
名义GDP是百分之六点多。
Nominal GDP is six and change percent.
从历史上看，十年期利率应该高出200个基点。
Historically, ten year rates should be 200 basis points above.
现在假设大概是……
Now let's say it's about...
它……
It...
那是在1997年改变的。
That changed in 1997.
所以假设利率就持平了。
So let's say it just goes to even.
相对于名义GDP，我们还是便宜的。
We're still cheap relative to nominal GDP.
这很重要，因为GDP在以6.5%的速度增长。
Now that matters because GDP is growing at six and a half percent.
理论上，如果你只看这个数字，那就意味着利率必须高于GDP增速，那样的话，无论是投资、交易还是做生意，都很难赚到钱。
Theoretically, if you just take what that is, that means you'd have to have rates above it where it'd be difficult to make money if that's kind of how much money you can make investing wise or transaction wise, business wise.
但事实并非如此。
But that's not the case.
所以标普500指数里有很多僵尸公司。
So with inside the S and P 500 are a lot of zombie companies.
我不想这么说，但现在的建筑商确实赚不了多少钱。
I mean, I hate to say it, but homebuilders don't make much money these days.
汽车公司，比如福特、通用。
Auto companies, Ford, GM.
这些只是受利率影响，还是你觉得这是市场结构性的变化，比如说房屋建筑商，未来二十年都会很难熬？
Is that stuff just interest rate driven, or do you think that is like a structural change in the market, and homebuilders, as an example, are going to have a tough time for the next twenty years?
我觉得房屋建筑商永远都会很难熬。
I think homebuilders are gonna have a tough time forever.
我觉得经济在变。
I think the economy is changing.
我觉得人口结构在变。
I think demographics are changing.
我觉得人们看待流动性的方式变了，比如在不同州、不同国家之间搬家的灵活性，这种变化在年轻一代中已经持续一段时间了。
I think the way people view mobilization, having the flexibility of moving from state to state, country to country, that's been a change with the younger generation for some time.
以前那种，我上大学，找工作，然后买房，你知道，有了孩子之后，就在那儿住上三四十年。
The old, I go to college, I get a job, I buy a house after I, you know, I have kids, and then I stay there for thirty, forty years.
那种情况已经不存在了。
That doesn't exist anymore.
所以，虽然我们国家住房不够，但你觉得未来会有更多公寓之类的吗？
And so we don't have enough housing in the country, so do I think there'll be more apartments and things like that?
我觉得Airbnb会不会……
Do I think Airbnb will be...
我觉得所有这些都会发生，但要比较经济，这是最好的方法，这也是我这周视频里要讲的内容。
I think all of those things will happen, but to compare the economy, and this is the best way to do it, and this is what I'm including in this week's video.
如果你拿美光和英伟达2015年的收入，也就是11年前，和福特、通用汽车以及房屋建筑商相比，你会发现福特、通用和房屋建筑商的年收入几乎是美光和英伟达的20倍。
If you take the revenue for micron and NVIDIA in 2015, so eleven years ago, and you compare that to Ford, GM, and the homebuilders, you're talking about Ford, GM, and the homebuilder being, like, almost 20 times the size of the annual revenue for micron and NVIDIA.
现在快进到现在，光美光和英伟达的收入就超过了那些……
And now you fast forward, micron and NVIDIA alone have more than those those...
房屋建筑商加上福特和通用汽车。
The homebuilders plus Ford and and GM.
但更糟糕的是，英伟达下一年的收入增长预期几乎相当于它将要产生的全部收入。
But even worse than that, the expectations of revenue growth for the next year for NVIDIA are almost the entire size of the revenue that will be generated.
我们的经济已经完全不一样了，所以当人们拿出这些数据，一开始说，哦，过去五十年每次发生这种情况，都会出现什么什么。
We just have a completely different economy, and so when people roll this stuff out, once it starts with, oh, every time this has happened over the past fifty years, x happens.
这不是同一个经济了，我就……
This is not the same economy, and I'll just...
作为体育迷，他们改变了NFL的规则。
As both being sports fans, they changed the rules in the NFL.
你知道，以前你可以用它们粘在手上，然后去抓……
You know, you used to be able to use stick them on your hands to, you know, grab...
拦截球。
Intercept the ball.
你可以抓住一个人不放手。
You could hold on to someone you wouldn't let go.
有很多不同的规则。
A lot of different rules.
现在NFL里你不能再碰任何人了。
You can't touch anyone in the NFL anymore.
你不能碰四分卫。
You can't touch the quarterback.
把七十年代和八十年代的数据和今天相比，公平吗？
Is it fair to compare stats of the nineteen seventies and eighties to today?
当然不是。
Of course not.
但不知怎么的，那些五十多岁、从不接触AI的宏观经济学家们——这就是我最不满的地方——如果你真的用过AI，看到它的发展方向，看到生产力提升，你就会意识到经济已经变了。
But somehow or another, macro people that are in their fifties that never touch AI, and that's my big beef, is that if you actually used AI and you saw where things were going, you actually saw the productivity gains, you'd recognize that the economy has changed.
所以不管是石油还是利率，现在的经济和2007年之前已经不一样了，这都是因为iPhone。
So that's why whether it's oil, whether it's rates, it's not the same economy as before 2007, and that's because of the iPhone.
你有没有……
Do you...
你知不知道有没有什么指标，是看按行业划分的资金流向的？
Are you aware of any measurement that basically looks at, sector based dollar flows?
就像，大家关注宏观的时候会看资本流动、流动性周期之类的。
So, like, you know, there's capital flows that people pay attention to macro in terms of, liquidity cycles and things like that.
但用这种方式来思考很有意思，比如，有多少资金流向了房地产开发商，那里的收入和利润在增长，而其他一些行业又是怎样的。
But it's a very interesting way to think about, okay, how much aggregate dollars are going towards homebuilders and the revenue and profit that's growing there versus maybe some of these other sectors.
我之所以立刻对这个感兴趣，是因为不仅仅是美光和英伟达以前股价低，现在高了。
And the reason I immediately am intrigued by that is it's not just that, oh, micron and NVIDIA were low, and now they're high.
它们其实是在加速增长。
It's that they're actually accelerating.
所以如果你不把它看作静态的，而是看作动态趋势，它们应该会在这里非常猛烈地拉开差距。
And so if you look at this not as a static thing, but a dynamic trend, they should pull away very aggressively here.
然后问题就变成了，好吧。
And then the question becomes, okay.
那么，哪些行业正在遭受重创呢？
Well, what are the sectors that are getting hammered?
你提到了房地产，还有汽车制造业。
You mentioned housing and, you know, car manufacturing.
但我不太确定。
But I don't know.
我可能很快就能想到十几种不同类型的业务，它们未来都会处于某种停滞不前的状态。
I could probably think of very quickly 10 or 12, you know, different types of businesses that are all going to be in somewhat of a static, you know, kind of environment going forward.
我的意思是，把资本从这些行业撤出来是个巨大的机会。对。
I mean, there's a huge opportunity to just take capital out of those sectors Yep.
然后把资金转过去。
And rotate them over.
而且几乎不看具体公司，就是纯粹看哪里有机会和增长，就像巴菲特那种做法。
And almost indiscriminate of names, it is just literally where is the momentum and growth coming from, like a Buffett style approach.
我觉得买便宜货永远不会过时。
I don't think that buying things for less than they're worth is ever gonna go out of style.
但只是买那些所谓的好公司、现金流强的公司，感觉那种价值投资者以后可能会很难做。
But just like buying, quote, unquote, good, strong, cash flowing businesses, feels like that type of value investor may have a tough time going forward.
那我们回到2015年。
So let's go back to 2015.
我做的另一件事是……
So the other thing that I did is...
让我们回到iPhone那时候。
And let's take it back to the iPhone.
所以当iPhone……
So when the iPhone...
信不信由你，iPhone 发布的时候，别忘了，那是在科技股七年熊市的尾声。
Believe it or not, when the iPhone came out, remember, that was at the end of a seven year bear market in technology.
所以我们经历了互联网泡沫，花了整整七年，一直到金融危机，才基本上回到原来的水平。
So we had the .com bubble, and it took seven years all the way into the great financial crisis to basically get back to where we were.
那时候，科技股在标普500里大概占13%，这就涉及到你问的营收问题，大家要明白，一个行业可以有很高的营收，但如果它不增长，标普500是不会给它高估值的。
At that time, technology was about 13% of the S and P 500, and this is where your question on revenue, and so people understand, you can have a lot of revenue in a sector, but if it's not growing, the S and P 500 is not gonna value it.
但标普500确实关心营收，不过它更关心增长。
But S and P 500 does care about the revenues, but it cares about the growth.
现在，标普500里，如果你把科技板块算上，包括软件和半导体，再加上像Netflix、谷歌、Meta、亚马逊和特斯拉这些公司，因为它们本质上是科技公司，但被归在其他板块。
And right now, the S and P 500, if you take technology sector, which is gonna include software and semis, you add in basically companies like Netflix and, Google and Meta and Amazon and Tesla because they're technology companies, but they're in other sectors.
现在这些加起来已经占到标普500的56%了，五十六。
You're up to 56% of the S and P 500 now, five six.
哇。
Wow.
所以我们已经把其他所有板块都挤掉了。
So we've already hurt all of these others.
这就涉及到大家讨论的另一件事了。
This is what gets into the other thing people are talking about.
所以有创新高、创新低，还有市场广度。
So there's this new highs, new lows, and the breath.
市场广度非常糟糕。
The breath is horrible.
好的。
Okay.
我们来分析一下这意味着什么。
Let's go through what this means.
如果七家公司表现强劲，而科技板块现在占56%，每当科技占主导时，这些公司就会……
If seven companies are winning and the tech side is now 56%, whenever tech is dominating, these companies are...
市场广度自然就会很差。
The breath is gonna be bad by definition.
但如果利率上升，科技对利率不敏感，而这是人们犯的另一个错误。
But if you move rates higher, tech is insensitive to rates, and this is the other mistake people are making.
现在那些悲观的人会跟你说，天哪。
Now the doomers will tell you that, oh my god.
我们需要资金，这是在借钱。
We need capital, and this is borrowing money.
而且我在所有演讲中都反复说过，AI交易对利率完全没有敏感性。
And I've said repeatedly on everything I speak at, there is absolutely no sensitivity for rates in the AI trade.
一点都没有。
None.
你可以大幅提高利率。
You can move it up a lot.
如果算力价格不下降，英伟达，那真的无所谓。
If compute prices don't come down, Nvidia, it it just doesn't matter.
我知道人们很难相信这一点，但现实是美光的利润率，他们这周刚发布了财报，是87%。
I mean, I know it's hard for people to believe that, but the reality is the margins for micron, they just released earnings this week, 87%.
Anthropic和OpenAI做的事情有巨大的利润空间，他们以高价出售算力，因为人们需要它。
There is so much margin in what Anthropic does and what OpenAI does that they're selling compute at prices because people need it.
这是智能。
It's intelligence.
太不可思议了。
It's incredible.
他们需要它。
They need it.
我可能不同意其中的一些观点。
I may disagree with some of this.
好的。
Okay.
好吧，我们先把话说完。
Well, let's let's finish the the statement first.
所以当你看到新高和新低时，每个人都说，看看那些新低。
So when you look at new new highs and new lows, and everyone goes, look at all the new lows.
你知道新低出现在哪些领域吗？
You know what the new lows are in?
必需消费品。
Consumer staples.
对。
True.
公用事业。
Utilities.
房地产。
Real estate.
你知道这些是什么股票吗？
You know what those names are?
它们都对利率很敏感。
They're all interest rate sensitive.
它们都……
They all...
它们从AI热潮中得不到任何好处，因为AI推高了利率。
They have no benefit from the AI situation because AI is driving rates higher.
这正在伤害这些板块，所以它们才会跌到52周低点。
It's hurting these groups, and that's why they're trading at fifty two week lows.
因为当债券收益率上升时，谁还想持有那些基本上就是合成债券头寸的必需消费品和公用事业股呢？
Because who wants to own a consumer staples and a utility when they're basically just synthetic bond positions when bond rates are going higher?
我同意，对利率敏感的行业百分之百承压，而且在情况改变之前会一直承压。
I agree that the rate sensitive businesses 100% are under pressure, going to be under pressure until things change.
任何不同意这一点的人，我觉得这其实是悲观派和AI派之间的一个共识点，就是经济中有一部分。
Anyone who disagrees with that, I think that that's actually a agreement point between the, like, doomers and the AI folks is there's a certain part of the economy.
如果利率上升，它们就会受到冲击。对于科技股，具体到个股，我同意。
If rates go up, they're gonna get On tech, the individual businesses, I agree.
不过，我确实认为，利率上升和2021年11月的顶部之间是有联系的，举个例子。
I do think, though, there is a connection between rates going up and the top in November 2021 as an example.
所以美联储出来说，嘿。
So the Fed comes out and says, hey.
我们要开始加息了。
We are going to start raising rates.
他们直到2022年3月才真正动手，但差不多那时候就是顶了。
They don't do it till March '22, but that pretty much marked the top.
再看看2000年，那时候的互联网泡沫。
Go back to 2000 and, 2000 kind of bubble.
也是一样的道理。
Same thing.
利率方面，他们有点像在预告，嘿。
Rates, they kinda forecast, hey.
我们要加息了。
We're gonna raise rates.
市场就掉头了。
Market turns over.
所以奇怪的是，这并不直接影响那些企业本身，但从整体宏观层面看，一旦他们说要加息，通常就意味着某种顶部出现了，我觉得悲观派就是抓住这一点。
So in a weird way, it doesn't impact the actual businesses, but on an overall, like, almost macro basis, when they say they're gonna raise rates, usually, that has marked some sort of top, which I think is what the doomers are kind of pulling back to.
我理解你的意思是，现在利率在涨，市场也在涨，这好像跟那个观点有点矛盾。
I think your point, it sounds like, is, well, rates are going up right now, and the market is going up too, which kinda, like, violates that that viewpoint.
所以先把这个放一边。
So put that aside for one second.
我现在……
I am...
我之前觉得Anthropic、OpenAI这些是世界上最好的公司，但现在我觉得我越来越倾向于认为它们可能会远远低于人们的预期。
I went from Anthropic OpenAI, etcetera, being the best businesses in the world to now I think I'm in the camp of there's an increasing chance that they are going to be way underperform what people think.
有三个数据点，我想听听你的看法。
And there are three data points I'd love your reaction to.
第一个是每个客户的token消耗量似乎激增了，但现在开始在一些方面出现回落。
First is token consumption per customer seems to have exploded and now is starting to turn over in a number of things.
我们在Ramp AI指数中看到了这一点。
We see this in the Ramp AI Index.
支出在下降。
Spending is down.
我们也在一些类似的指标中看到了这一点，比如OpenRoute之类的，这些指标……
We also see this in a number of these kind of metrics that look at, you know, whether it's OpenRoute or whatever that that...
这个数字在下降。
That's coming down.
我们还知道，Grok最近发布了他们最新的模型，并且展示了一张性能和价格的图表。
We also know, Grok recently released their latest, model, and they showed a chart of performance and price.
性能越来越好，价格却在下降。
Everything is getting better performance, and price is coming down.
所以看起来一切都在向右下方倾斜。
So it looks like everything's kinda diving down into the right.
如果你把这两个数字相乘，处理的token数量乘以每个token的价格，那最终就是模型实验室的收入。
Well, if you take those two numbers, number of tokens processed times price of token, that is ultimately the revenue of the Model Labs.
这周我和Dan Ives聊过，我说，你看，如果这两个数字都在下降，Anthropic...
I was talking to Dan Ives this week, and I said, look, if those two numbers are both coming down, Anthropic...
最新的图表只是显示出轻微的增长，但收入趋于平稳。
The latest charts are just showing slight growth, but to plateau revenue.
所以随着企业意识到，也许我们需要自己掌握更多，而不是把所有东西都外包给这两家公司，感觉那里有一些压力。
And so as businesses realize, like, maybe we need to own more of this ourselves and not just outsource everything to these two companies, it feels like there's some pressure there.
现在整个市场在增长。
Now, the overall market is growing.
也许AI领域有广度，收入流向各处。
Maybe there's like breadth in AI where like the revenue flows.
但模型实验室可能表现疲软，它们上市可能面临压力，而更广泛的AI交易还在继续？
But could there be weakness in the Model Labs and maybe some pressure of them get actually getting public, yet the AI trade more broadly continues?
所以你几乎看到价值在重新分配。
And so like you're almost getting like a reallocation of where value is accruing.
那么让我……
So let me...
我要反驳你很多观点。
I'm gonna disagree with a lot of what you said.
是的。
Yes.
但不是事实部分。
But not the facts.
好的。
Okay.
所以你刚才提到的那些事情
So the the things you highlighted
哦，太好了。
Oh, great.
直接说我笨得了。
Just call me dumb.
不是。
No.
但你掉进了一个陷阱……
But you're falling into the trap of...
大多数人都会掉进去的陷阱，就是想着，好吧，我们来看看这些数据，我们过一遍。
That most people get into, which is, well, let's look at this data, let's go through.
那我们……
So let's let's...
救救我，Jordi。
Save me, Jordi.
不。
No.
所以今年上半年主要是在疯狂消耗token。
So the first part of this year was about token maxing.
就是不管效率，先扔一大堆token去试所有东西，看看会有什么结果。
Let's just throw tons of tokens inefficiently at everything and see what happens.
好。
Okay.
不过我们知道那迟早会结束。
Well, we knew that was gonna end.
所以你看那个ramp指数之类的，token成本会……
So when you look at the ramp index and all this stuff, the token cost will...
是通缩的。
Is deflationary.
它会继续往下降。
It's gonna continue to come down.
现在有些模型，三个月前……
There's models now that three months ago from...
我的意思是，就连OpenAI三个月前的模型，现在都比当时更好，或者更便宜了。
I mean, even even OpenAI has the models from three months ago, which are better today than three months ago or cheaper than they were back then.
所以一切都在朝那个方向发展。
So everything is moving that way.
那我们就先不管这个了。
So let's leave that alone.
我们已经进入了智能体时代。
We've entered the agentic side.
token的数量会爆炸式增长。
The token numbers are going to explode.
我们将会看到……
We are going to see...
所以我们之前只有企业级的智能体。
So all we had were enterprise agents.
全球80亿人什么都没用。
8,000,000,000 people on the planet didn't use anything.
现在，Grok、Instinct、Muse才刚刚开始。
Well, now, Grok, Instinct, Muse are just starting.
但是有多少那些……
But how many of those...
所以这就是我觉得噪音所在的地方。
So this this is where I think the noise is.
有多少那些使用OpenAI或Anthropic的模型？
How many of those use OpenAI or Anthropic models?
嗯，不是。
Well, no.
不是。
No.
不是。
No.
不是……
Not...
那我直接说结论吧，因为……
So let let me get to the end because there...
咱们走吧……
Let's go...
你一开始说的，我不是对OpenAI和Anthropic持乐观态度的人。
What you said at the beginning, I am not some bull on OpenAI and Anthropic.
但是
But
你是看空吗？
Are you a bear?
不是。
No.
在这个……
At this...
但问题是这样的。
But here's the thing.
你觉得他们的增长速度是不是已经过了最快的阶段？
Do I think their growth rate has already passed the fastest point?
绝对是。
Absolutely.
所以，记得两个月前我们聊的时候，他们的年化收入已经很高了，Anthropic 现在都超过一千亿了。
So the conversation, remember, two months ago was they're they're on an annualized run rate, which is still there for Anthropic of a 100 plus billion.
好的。
Okay.
不错的生意。
Nice business.
顺便说一句，我不是说我不羡慕有这样的生意。
Like, by the way, I'm not, I'm not saying I'm not jealous of having that business.
咱们先把话说清楚。
Let's just get something straight.
对于那些想唱衰这些公司的人。
For everyone who's, like, wants to fade these guys.
今年年底，OpenAI 和 Anthropic 的总收入将超过整个软件行业的收入。
The total revenue for this year that OpenAI and Anthropic will have at the end of this year will be greater than the entire software revenue.
所以，咱们先把话说清楚。
So let's let's just get something straight.
这些可是史上增长最快的公司。
Like, these are the most...
这些是历史上增长最快的公司。
These are the fast growing companies in the history.
Anthropic 曾经是一家市值 500 亿美元的公司。
Anthropic was a $50,000,000,000 company.
现在一年半内就变成了数万亿美元的公司。
It's now a multi trillion in a year and a half.
你没法忽视现在正在发生的事情。
Like, you can't fade what's going on.
你觉得他们能达到一万亿美元的收入吗？
Do I think they're gonna get to a trillion dollars in revenue?
绝对不可能。
Absolutely not.
但我觉得人们低估了生物技术公司想用的、纳米技术公司想用的，还有……
But do I think people are underestimating what the biotech companies wanna use, what the nanotechnology companies wanna use, what the...
物理科学领域的一切都会为前沿智能买单。
Everything in the physical science will pay for frontier intelligence.
如果你觉得他们会用更便宜的模型，那你就是疯了。
You're crazy if you think they're gonna use cheaper models.
在我所在的对冲基金行业，这已经发生了。
Like, in the hedge fund industry where I'm from, this has already happened.
像Jane Street、Millennium，他们都在用Anthropic。
Like, Jane Street, Millennium, they're all using Anthropic.
所以大家都疯了。
So everyone's crazy.
但我想说的是，今天的节目由Figure Markets赞助。
But but here's my thing is, today's episode is brought to you by Figure Markets.
好了，各位。
Alright, everyone.
谁想分到16万美元中的一部分？
Who wants a slice of a $160,000?
我们的合作伙伴Figure正在举办一个活动，回馈他们的社区。
Our partner Figure's running a promo where they're giving back to their community.
从7月27日到8月27日，任何从未在他们那里完成过加密货币抵押贷款的用户都有资格参加这个赠品活动。
From July 27 to August 27, any user who's never completed a Crypto backed loan with them can qualify for this giveaway.
查看我简介中的链接了解更多信息。
Check out the link in my bio for more information.
我们生活在一个利率长期居高不下、信贷收紧、真正能获得收益的地方越来越少的世界。
We're living in a world of higher for longer rates, tighter credit, and fewer places to earn real yield.
这就是为什么Figure很有意思。
That's why Figure is interesting.
Figure是美国最大的非银行房屋净值信贷额度贷款机构，已经为房主释放了超过220亿美元的资金。
Figure is the largest nonbank HELOC lender in The United States with over $22,000,000,000 unlocked for homeowners.
他们现在把同样的理念和创新应用到加密货币抵押贷款和现实世界资产收益上。
They're now applying that same concept and innovation to crypto backed loans and real world asset yield.
如果你持有加密货币，Figure让你可以以8.91%的利率借款，这相当于9.999%的年利率，贷款价值比为50%，这样你就能在不卖出、不触发税务、也不退出市场的情况下获得流动性。
If you're holding crypto, Figure lets you borrow against it at 8.91% interest, which is 9.999% APR with a 50% loan to value, giving you liquidity without selling, without triggering taxes, and without stepping out of the market.
他们使用去中心化的MPC托管，所以资产存放在隔离钱包中，免受rug pull的影响，并且他们引入了清算保护来帮助管理下行波动。
They use a decentralized MPC custody, so assets stay in segregated wallets, protected from rug pulls, and they've introduced liquidation protection to help manage downside volatility.
对于寻求收益的投资者，Democratized Prime提供高达9%的年利率，按小时支付，背后有现实世界的私人信贷、真实现金流支持，而不是投机性的代币发行。
And for investors looking for yield, Democratized Prime offers up to 9% APY paid hourly, backed by real world private credit, real cash flows, and not speculative token emissions.
Figure正在区块链上构建一个新的资本市场，现在你有机会分享其中的收益。
Figure is building a new capital market on blockchain, and now you have access to the upside.
点击下面的链接去了解一下吧。
Check them out using the link below.
我要说的是，我不确定前沿智能这个标签现在还适不适合OpenAI和Anthropic。
I'm gonna argue that I don't know if frontier intelligence is the actual right label for OpenAI and Anthropic anymore.
我会给你……
And I'll give you...
让我给你举两个例子。
Let me give you two examples.
我觉得每个人一开始都是想用AI。
I think everyone starts with, I wanna use AI.
我觉得AI可能很有价值。
I think AI could be valuable.
所以你要做的就是去找现成的最聪明的东西来用。
And so what you do is you outsource to what is the smartest thing I could use that's kind of off the shelf.
然后你就直接去找这些公司。
And you go right to these guys.
在Sylvia，我们的工程团队不到10个人，我们绝对不可能比那些万亿美元的公司做出更准确、更好的个人理财模型，而Jane Street也搞不定怎么为他们的特定用例打造更好的模型，包括定制AI框架、数据管道、所有模型权重、训练等等。
There is no way in hell that at Sylvia, with less than 10 people on an engineering team, we are able to build better models that are more accurate than these trillion dollar companies for personal finance, and Jane Street can't figure out how to build a better model for their specific use case in terms of custom AI harnesses, data pipelines, all the model weights, and and the training, etcetera.
所以我觉得……
And so what I think...
再说，我们现在正进入一个我称之为“概率思维”的世界。
And again, this is where we are now entering a world of, I call it Jordi theme, probabilistic thinking
就是……
Of...
我不能百分之百确定，但我知道这绝不是零。
I can't say this with a 100% truth, but I know this is not zero.
我觉得对于很多企业来说，OpenAI和Anthropic是完美的入门选择。
I think that OpenAI and Anthropic for many businesses are the perfect on ramp.
这样每个客户都能获得加速的体验。
So you get this acceleration on a per customer basis.
然后客户就会开始问，我们能不能获得更智能的服务？
And then the customer starts to say, well, can we get better intelligence?
能不能更便宜一些？
Can we get cheaper intelligence?
他们开始尝试优化。
They start to try to optimize.
这个优化点，几乎每个我聊过的私营市场CEO都说，我们正在内部开始做这件事。
That optimization point, almost every CEO I talk to in the private market is saying, we are starting to do this internally.
所以对我来说，这意味着他们未来的增长在于如何让更多目前不使用AI的人开始使用。
And so to me, what that means is their future growth is about how do we go get more of the people who do not currently use AI to get onboarded?
因为他们几乎是在流失现有用户，每次使用的token量在下降。
Because they're almost like leaking their existing users, the per token usage is going down.
所以他们必须去获取新客户来弥补流失，或者说在一定程度上维持留存。
So they have to go get new customers to replace the, like, leakage or the, like, retention almost to some degree.
你明白吗？
Does that make sense?
但这又回到了
But this gets back into
我们意见不同。
We disagree.
我我……
I I...
我不同意的部分在于，对于你所说的所有观点，如果我说最关键的一点是我们目前的使用量只占1%，对。
The part I disagree with is for everything that you've said, if I told you the most important point is that we're in the 1% Mhmm.
而且杰文斯悖论是真实存在的，这一点我完全同意，OpenAI和Anthropic不可能不继续增长。
Right now of usage, and that Jevan's paradox is a real thing, which I completely agree with, there is no way that OpenAI and Anthropic don't continue to grow.
所以，早期那种飞速增长和持续稳定增长之间是有区别的。
So there's a difference between growing as fast as they did for the early inception and continuing to grow.
作为我个人，我不是说他们不会增长，顺便提一下。
As someone I'm not saying they're not gonna grow, by the way.
我同意他们会继续增长。
I I agree that they're gonna keep growing.
只是现在的微妙变化在于
It's just the Nuance dynamics now
我同意。
I agree.
情况在变化，因为现在还有像JEV这样的因素。
Are changing because you also have, like, JEV.
出现了。
Shows up.
就像，嗯...
Like like, there...
现在发生了很多事情，你三个月前说过一句话。
There's a lot of stuff that are happening where, you made a comment three months ago.
AI领域轻松赚钱的时代已经结束了。
The easy money in AI is over.
我们现在...
We are now...
我完全同意这个观点，而且我觉得这越来越明显了。
Like, I'm fully on board with that, and I think that it's becoming very obvious.
你不能只是说，大型模型实验室就能拿到所有钱。
You can't just be like, the big model labs get all the money.
对。
Correct.
这一点，我同意。
And and that part, I agree with it.
作为用户，我觉得……
The thing the thing that as a user...
拿我儿子举例，我们俩都会吐槽Gemini。
And using my son as, like, an example, we both will crap on Gemini.
我不……
I don't...
新模型出来的时候，嗯，这个不错，但它犯的错误，我经常得靠OpenAI和Claude来修正。
When the new model comes out, well, this is good, it makes mistakes that I have OpenAI and Claude Fix constantly.
所以我觉得，那些经常用、又担心出错和幻觉这些问题的人，都知道哪些模型更容易出这种问题。
So I think people that use it all the time and that are scared of mistakes and hallucinations and things like that know the models that are more likely to do this.
我觉得当你决定用开源模型的时候，根据我自己的经验，最好是用在不那么重要的事情上。
I think when you make the decision to go to open source and you go to these, I I personally believe on my own experience, it better be for stuff that isn't super important.
所以我提到了Jane Street和Millennium。
That's why I brought up the Jane Street in Millennium.
我不认为这些模型都差不多。
I don't agree that all these models are even close to the same.
我用过……
I've used...
我停用了我的OpenClaw和Hermes，因为我在Claude和Anthropic里能做到一些事情……
I I stopped my OpenCLaw and my Hermes because I was able to do things in Claude and Anthropic that...
或者说在Claude和OpenAI里，那些是不同的。
Or in in Claude and OpenAI, which were different.
然后当Grockbach和Muse这些出来的时候，它们并没有那么好，跟OpenAI的差距很大。
And then when Grockbach came out and Muse came out and everything else, is not as good a model, anything close to what OpenAI...
但也不需要那么好。
But it doesn't need to be.
它只是帮我处理一些基本的事情。
It's just doing basic stuff for me.
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所以我觉得我们说的是同一件事。
So I think we're saying the same thing.
就是觉得我们在这点上是一致的。
Just think We agree on this.
我觉得最难让人理解、也是我最想传达给大家的一点，就是你们听说过杰文斯悖论。
I think the hardest thing for people to understand and the most important thing that I wanna get across people, you've heard Jevan's paradox.
我们现在就处在那个节点上。
We're at that point right now.
过去两个月发生的事情，可能只是单方面的空档，也就是这个代币成本的问题，但接下来一年，我们正在进入一个非常非常危险的时期。
What happened the last two months may have been a air pocket on one way, which is this token cost thing, but we're entering a very, very dangerous period now for the next year.
使用量会暴涨，而我们的算力不够。
The usage is gonna skyrocket, and we don't have enough compute.
所以这就回到了OpenAI和Anthropic拥有的另一项东西。
So this gets back to the other thing OpenAI and Anthropic own.
我听了那个Instinct创始人的采访。
I listened to the interview with the Instinct founder.
你听了吗？
Did you listen to
听了。
it?
就是《Invest Like The Best》里诺亚那期。
Noah on, Invest Like The Best.
他特别提到，他低估了自己对算力的需求。
He specifically highlighted that he underestimated his compute needs.
他说……
He said...
我记得他说，他大概有40%的时间都花在想办法搞算力上，而且他每天增长10%，所以特别难搞。
I think he said 40% of his time is being spent trying to accumulate compute, and he's having a hard time because he's growing 10% per day.
所以他就想，这怎么预测呢？
And so he's like, how do I project out?
就算我把算力翻倍，基本上几个星期就用完了，那怎么估算我到底需要多少呢？
If I double my compute, you know, I basically use it all up in a couple of weeks, and then how do I kinda project how much I'm gonna need?
所以可怕的地方在这里。
So here's the scary thing.
我们正在进入一个炒作期……
We're entering the hype...
效率和算力的抛物线，还有Verirubin也是一样。
The the the parabola of efficiency and compute as well with Verirubin.
Blackwells芯片确实很棒。
So Blackwells were great.
你……
You...
芯片的效率。
The efficiency of the chips.
嗯，现在我们到了Verirubin。
Well, now we're getting to Verirubin.
这些都由谁掌控呢？
Who owns all of that?
大公司呗。
The big guys do.
我是说，这……
I mean, it's...
根据Semi Analysis的分析，还有我在Olin播客上听到的消息，OpenAI和Anthropic加起来会控制未来上线算力的50%。
The speculation between semi analysis and what I've heard on the Olin Pod is that OpenAI and Anthropic combined will own up to 50% of all the compute coming online.
这不就是某种算力垄断或者双头垄断吗？
I mean, isn't that a monopoly or a duopoly of some sort on compute?
所以我觉得，不能因为他们有算力，就假设明年某个时候他们不会再次涨价。这其实意味着两件事。
And so this is where I I don't think you can make the assumptions that they won't actually go up again sometime next year just because they have the compute, which means two things.
第一，他们能服务更多人和更多公司。
Number one, they can service more people, more companies.
第二，他们的模型会越来越好，因为要真正达到他们最终在物理科学领域想要的那种智力水平，就需要更多的算力。
And number two, their models start getting better and better because you need more computing power to actually get to the level of the IQ that they eventually wanna get to for the physical sciences.
那我们来聊聊个人智能体吧，我觉得这个领域token用量会继续增长。
So let's talk about the personal agents, maybe as an area where I think tokens are going to continue to expand.
就在上周，Robinhood宣布推出了一系列智能交易功能。
We now have, just this past week, Robinhood announced a bunch of agentic trading.
OpenAI也推出了Dots。
We have OpenAI launched Dots.
还有……
We have...
Ryan Serhant在他的简易应用里推出了一个AI代理，这又是一个非常应用型的AI案例。
Ryan Serhant launched an AI agent within his simple app, which, again, is like a very applied AI type thing.
还有Muse，虽然之前已经推出了，但现在开始瞄准小企业市场。
We have Muse, which was already out, but now is going after small business.
还有Instinct的创始人Noah，他公开表示他们的交易额已经超过十亿美元。
We have Noah, the founder of Instinct, who's basically come out and said they're doing over a billion dollars of transactions.
其中大约40%来自旅游领域。
40%, I think, is on travel.
他们公布了很多数据，关于……
They gave a bunch of numbers in terms of what...
现在的情况怎么样，他们是怎么做到的，每天增长10%。
What's going on, how they're doing it, growing 10% day over day.
关于Sylvia，我们宣布了现在你可以用更智能的方式发短信，而不必进入老式的仪表盘去操作。
With Sylvia, we announced now you can text it in a more argentic way than have to go into an archaic dashboard and use it that way.
然后我就不...
And then I don't...
我都数不清了。
I've lost count.
如果我们花一个小时来列举我看到的每一个新产品发布，包括那些新推出的代理，那都说不完。
We would spend an hour of me rattling off every single product launch that I saw from some net new agent that got released, including...
不知道你有没有看到这个。
I don't know if you saw this one.
有一个...
There is one...
我不想提名字，因为我不确定它是否靠谱，就是你可以从一个婴儿代理开始养大它。
I don't wanna say the name because I don't know how legit it is, that you can start with the agent as a baby and raise it.
这个我还没听说过。
I I haven't heard that.
发布视频拍得真棒。
Launch video was awesome.
看起来挺酷的。
Looked cool.
太搞笑了。
Hilarious.
我敢肯定他们肯定有一套说辞来解释为什么那样更好。
I'm sure they've got some pitch as to why that's better.
但是，说实话，我们现在在AI代理这块已经有点走火入魔了。
But, like, we're we're we're in Banana land a little bit on the AI agents already.
你是怎么评估个人代理的？
How are you evaluating personal agents?
你都在用什么，你觉得哪里会……
What are you using, and where do you think...
那会不会有整合，还是说你会针对20个不同的使用场景搞20个代理？
You is there a consolidation, or like, are you gonna have 20 agents across 20 different use cases?
好的。
Okay.
这个问题有两部分，我想确保大家先听到第二部分，也就是你回头再谈的那个。
So there's two parts to this, and I wanna make sure the second part everyone hears first, in terms of you getting back to it.
自从我把Muse装到手机上，我每天都买更多的加密货币。
Every day since I put Muse on my phone, I have bought more and more crypto.
每天都是。
Every single day.
是因为Muse告诉你的，还是你自己越来越确信了？
Because Muse told you, or because you just become more convinced of it?
因为对我来说……
Because this to me...
所以我……
So I I...
大家已经一起看这个有一段时间了。
People have watched this together now for a while.
去年，我因为听别人不理解代币增长的微故事、Muse 的代理功能等等而感到沮丧，但每天它都让我惊叹，因为它能做的事情越来越多。
Last year, when I was frustrated by just, like, listening to people not understand the micron story about token growth, the agent stuff with Muse and all of this, it just blows me away every day with more things that I can do with it.
所以让我先回答那个问题。
And so let me answer that part.
我想谈谈加密货币的联系，因为我觉得如果任何人……
I wanna get to the crypto connection because I think if any...
每个人都应该要求他们的富达、罗宾汉等平台，至少具备考虑这个的能力。
Everyone should be demanding from their fidelity, their Robin Hood, everything that they have the ability of at least thinking about this.
我真的相信我们正在进入一个令人惊叹的领域，加密货币与代理相结合。
I really do believe that we're entering something that is just breathtaking crypto connected to agents.
在代理方面，一切始于 Grokbot，那对我来说是个改变游戏规则的东西。
So on the agent side, it started with Grokbot, and that was a game changer for me.
现在我用 Grokbot 更多是处理工作上的事情。
Now I use Grokbot more for the work stuff.
我有一个首席幕僚，当我想和智能体开会或者派它们出去时，我会去找他。
I have one chief of staff who I go to when I wanna have a meeting with the agents or I wanna send off the agents.
但在那个首席幕僚之下，我现在有两个中层管理幕僚。
But underneath that chief of staff, I now have two middle management chief of staff.
哎呀。
Uh-oh.
中层管理者。
Middle managers.
中层管理者。
Middle managers.
嘿，拉把椅子过来。
Hey, pull up a chair.
让我给你讲讲自动化。
Let me tell you about automation.
所以我有一个负责AI的。
So I have one for AI.
天哪，你这个资本主义的猪。
Man, you capitalist pig.
你这是在针对中层管理者吗？
You going after the middle managers?
在摩根士丹利待太久了。
Too much time at Morgan Stanley.
所以一边是，有一个……
So one one side is, has got a...
一个AI方向。
An AI side.
另一边是加密货币方向，我派他们出去跟进最新动态。
The other side has a crypto side, and I send them out to keep up on what's going on.
Muse为我做的事情，我觉得这正是人们需要听到的，当他们说Meta赢了的时候。
What Muse did for me, and I think this is what people need to hear when they go Meta won.
Meta什么都没赢。
Meta didn't win anything.
这还不算...
It's not even...
就是说，将来会有很多个人AI，这是个大趋势，这也是为什么它这么重要——等苹果推出的时候，我们会有很多这样的东西。
Like, there's there's gonna be so many personal AI, and that's the big thing, and that's why it matters so much is that when Apple comes out, we're gonna have a ton.
那我觉得谁在安全方面会更厉害呢？
And who do I think is gonna be better at security?
苹果还是Meta？
Apple or Meta?
我会选苹果。
I'm I'm gonna go with Apple.
这只是我的猜测。
It's just my my guess.
但不管怎样，Muse和其他的那些，如果你还没用过，我觉得你就像我们之前聊到不理解token一样，会错过一些投资机会。
But regardless of that, Muse and all of them, if you haven't used them yet, I think you're missing the same way that when we talked about not understanding tokens, you're gonna miss out on some activity to invest.
我觉得说到智能体，我脑子里只有一个想法，就是现在的系统根本没法处理这种速度和能力。
I think with agents, my brain only goes one place, is there is no way for the current system to handle the speed and the ability to do things like this.
这根本不可能，我给你讲一个重要的思考过程。
It's just impossible, and I will give you one important thought process on this.
我们听说过智能体集群。
So we've heard about agent swarms.
那我们来看看智能体的两个部分。
So let's take the two parts of agents.
现在有智能体集群的原因，和我们有个性化智能体的原因是一样的。
The reason there's agent swarms now is the same reason that we have personal agents.
除非我们发展到有智能体集群的地步，否则我们不可能有个性化智能体。
We couldn't have personal agents unless we got to the point where we had agent swarms.
因为归根结底，你就是在做这件事。
Because at the end of the day, that's kind of what you're doing.
你需要有足够的智能来处理所有这些不同的任务，有记忆，有这些能力，而智能体集群也有同样的东西。
You need to have enough IQ to be able to do all these different tasks, have the memory, have it, and agent swarms have the same thing.
这之所以重要，是因为当前系统，当你给某人电汇时，如果你在周五下午三点电汇，要到周一才会结算。
The reason this is important, the current system, when you go to wire money to someone, if you go to wire money to someone on a Friday at 03:00, it'll settle on Monday.
那你的钱这两天去哪儿了？
Where's your money for the last two days?
它待在哪儿呢？
Where is it sitting?
我敢说，没人真正知道自己的钱在哪儿。
And I challenge anyone to actually know where their money is.
用信用卡买东西的时候，钱从你的银行账户通过信用卡转到商家那里，我一直听人说，Visa和万事达会是这场竞争中的赢家。
When they use a credit card to go buy something and it goes from your bank account to the merchant through the credit card, I keep hearing people tell me, well, Visa and Mastercard are gonna be the winners in this.
我就觉得，不是这样的。
I'm like, no.
他们赢不了。
They're not.
他们根本没戏。
They have no chance.
我都不知道这种想法是从哪儿来的。
I I don't even know where this comes from.
这个争论经常出现。
And this argument comes up all the time.
从买东西到结算之间的步骤越多，耗时越长……
The amount of steps between buying something and settling something, the longer it takes...
哪怕只是二十秒对一秒，这期间就足够让代理集群多次介入，把钱偷走……
Even if it's twenty seconds versus one second, that's multiple times for an agent's swarm to come in and steal the money along...
每一步都必不可少。
You need every single part of it.
你还记得冷钱包的故事吧。
So you remember the cold wallet story.
加密货币基于密码学。
Crypto is based on cryptography.
所以，即时结算将成为必然，因为这是最好的防御手段。
Like, this is going to be a necessity to make sure that it's instant because that is the best defense on anything.
如果你担心有人趁你不在家时入室抢劫，那最好的办法就是出去一下再回来。
If you're worried about someone robbing your house, but they only rob it when you're not there, well, best the thing would be to go outside for a second and come back in.
你离开的时间越长，比如去度假，风险就越高。
The longer you leave, you go on vacation, the higher the probability.
我觉得大家需要开始明白，密码学和AI的结合，不仅仅是因为他们想做得快。
I think people need to start understanding that the the the lineup of cryptography to AIs is not just about them wanting to do things fast.
也不仅仅是成本的问题。
It's not just the cost.
还有面对代理集群时的风险时间，我觉得这以后会成为一个更受关注的话题。
It is also the time of risk against agent swarms, and I think that's gonna become more of a story.
这就是为什么每次我用它的时候，我都会想，天哪。
This is the reason why every time I use it, I'm like, oh my gosh.
这太明显了，第一，我们根本不需要加密货币。
This is so obvious that number one, that we didn't need crypto.
我们不需要那些代币。
We didn't need the tokens.
我们也不需要那些山寨币。
We didn't need the altcoins.
我们需要第一层网络来吸引资金，建设必要的基础设施。
We needed the layer ones to kind of draw capital in to build out the infrastructure that was necessary.
所以当第一层网络不断壮大，越来越大，那就意味着整个生态系统在扩大。
So when you have the l ones growing and continuing to get bigger and bigger, well, that means the ecosystem's getting bigger.
正如迈克尔·塞勒所说，资本结构现在可以改变，因为我们确实有了数字抵押品。
And as Michael Saylor says, the capital structure can now change because we actually have digital collateral.
我们有比特币。
We have Bitcoin.
我们有以太坊，所以我们有了可编程的一面。
We have Ethereum, so we have the programmable side.
但你需要那个真正让它发挥作用的东西……
But you need that thing that actually makes it...
嗯，这就是它的用途。
Well, this is the use case.
我也说过同样的话。
And I said the same thing.
如果你回头看看优步刚起步的时候，优步并不是一开始就有这个想法的，直到应用商店出现之后才有的。
If you go back and look when Uber started, Uber didn't start as a company in terms of the idea until the App Store happened.
然后他们就想，哦，我们可以这么做。
Then they went, oh, we can do this.
所以我觉得你会看到围绕这个的不断创新。
So I think you're gonna see innovation after innovation related to this.
所以我花时间在听很多播客上，作为一个每周听很多播客的人，现在很少听那些天马行空的想法了。
So what I've spent my time on as someone who listens to so many podcasts a week, very seldom now do I listen to moonshots.
这些我很少听了。
Very seldom do I listen to any of these.
为什么？
Why?
因为它们现在都被加密货币主导了，而且不是那种盲目跟风的加密货币。
They've been dominated by crypto now, and not rah rah hoodie crypto.
我的意思是，实际的应用场景和不同的估值方式，因为我一直在……
I mean, the functional use cases and different ways to value these because I am getting constantly...
我是说，这周已经发生三次了。
I mean, this has happened three times this week.
和对冲基金的电话，还有……
Calls with hedge fund and as...
还有资产管理……
And asset man...
就说是资产管理公司吧。
Let's just say asset managers.
他们问我为什么应该投资加密货币。
Tell me about why I should be investing in crypto.
以前从来没有过这样的对话。
These conversations never existed.
你和我聊的时候，你跟我讲过你走进那些房间时的各种恐怖故事。
When you and I talked, you gave me all the horror stories of walking into rooms.
他们是在问你，比如，我听说你在谈加密货币，但我不同意，所以你说服我，或者他们说，我感兴趣。
They are asking you in terms of, I hear you talking about crypto, and I disagree, so convince me, or they are saying, I am interested.
帮我更好地理解一下，你知道的，我想投资的钱应该放在哪里。
Help me better understand, you know, where to put the money that I want to invest.
最好的比喻是，门本来是关着的，你得使劲撬开它。
The best analogy is, the door was closed and you had to pry it open.
他们现在正透过门往里看。
They're looking through the door.
明白了。
I see.
明白了。
I see.
他们……
They...
他们感兴趣了，原因是……
They're they're interested, and the reason is...
这就是……这
And this is the This
是不是华尔街的FOMO情绪在升温。
is the Wall Street FOMO building up.
我不太...
I I don't...
我...
I...
所以我觉得这来自两个方面。
So I think it is coming from from two directions.
一个是每天，高盛、摩根士丹利、花旗银行，它们都参与其中。
One is every day, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Citibank, they're all involved in it.
全都参与了。
All of them.
它们都在争抢代币化。
They're racing for tokenization.
它们都在争抢稳定币，这才是关键。
They're racing for stablecoins, and that's the key thing.
但还有另一个观点，就是智能体与加密货币的结合是有道理的。
But then there's another argument, which is the connection of agents to crypto makes sense.
就像，关键就在于，这里面有一种‘哦，这说得通’的感觉。
Like, that's the whole point is that there's an element of, oh, this makes sense.
而我之所以如此强调，拍桌子说这件事非常重要，是因为……
And the reason I'm so emphatic and pounding the table that this is so important is...
而且我不知道怎么念Near那个伊利亚的姓。
And I don't I don't know how to pronounce Ilya's last name from Near.
但如果你回去听他在2023年接受的一个叫No Priors的播客采访，
But if you go back and listen to an interview with him in 2023 on a podcast called no priors
那个播客很棒。
Great podcast.
确实很棒。
Great podcast.
而且……
And...
但这在当时是非常前瞻性的看法，放到今天来看依然如此。
But this was a very futuristic look of where we are today.
所以如果在2023年，我跟你说，他做了这个采访。
So in 2023, if I said to you, okay, he did this interview.
那时候距离生成式AI兴起才过了六个月。
It was only six months after Gen AI started.
ChatGPT刚推出。
ChatGPT was launched.
他怎么可能对智能体世界及其连接有如此深刻的远见？
How could a guy have this much vision on the agentic world connecting to it?
实际上，那就是Near……
Literally, that's what near...
那就是他当时在谈论的内容。
That's what he was talking about.
他怎么可能有那样的远见？
How could he have that vision?
因为他就是那篇引发生成式AI的Transformer论文的合著者之一。
Because he was one of the coauthors on the transformer paper that led to generative AI.
所以这里有两件事值得说。
So there's two things about that.
我是个讲逻辑的人。
So I'm a logical guy.
我看事情的时候，会想，我喜欢听这个人说话。
Like, I I look at things and go, I like listening to this guy.
这太棒了。
This is great.
作为Transformer论文的合著者之一，当AI崛起，人们愿意为人才支付数亿甚至数十亿美元时，你觉得伊利亚会没接到电话吗？他本可以离开Near，去那边，但他相信这里。
His value as one of the transformer page coauthors when AI took over and people were paying hundreds of millions, if not billions of dollars for humans, you don't think Ilya got a call and could have left near and gone there, but he believes in this.
这里……
There...
作为一个创始人，有很多方面让我喜欢听这些人说话，也喜欢去了解他们。
There's a lot of elements for me as, like, a founder that I like listening to and getting to know the people.
所以我觉得如果大家回去听听那个，先别管投资Near的事。
So I think if people go back and listen to that, forget investing in Near.
就去听听那个故事，听听一个早在那个时候就坚信智能体必须成为加密货币一部分的人怎么说。
Just go listen to the story and go listen to someone who believes agents have to be part of crypto back in...
而且那会儿加密货币还在走下坡路。
So this was also when crypto was on its way down.
一切都在崩盘。
Everything was breaking down.
他当时就说，等智能体来了，连接点就到了。
He was saying when agents are here, that's when the connection will be.
他原话就是，它们将成为未来的经济主体。
And literally what he said is they will be the economic actors of the future.
所以这就是为什么我每天坐在那儿，心里就想，哦，我现在明白怎么回事了。
And so that's why every day that I sit there, I'm like, oh, I know what's happening now.
所以如果我挂掉电话，这周我就遇到过一次，我马上要跟一个人吃早餐，他有两份投资组合。
And so if I get off the call, and this happened to me once this week, I'm meeting someone for breakfast coming up soon, has two portfolios.
他在AI方面关注了我，是我的订阅者。
Follows me in AI as a subscriber.
他做得不错，手里有一堆这些名字。
He's been doing well, and he's got all these names.
但与此同时，他也有很多加密货币，他跟我提过。
But then at the same point, he's got a lot of crypto, which he told me about.
他说，我不需要更多加密货币了。
He's like, I don't need any more crypto.
我还有2021年和2022年的那些东西。
I still have stuff from 2021 and 2022.
这挺有意思的，因为我记得在互联网泡沫之后也听到过类似的话。
And that was an interesting thing because I remember hearing that after the .combubble.
我认识的那些买了很多这些东西的人，他们都没有再往里投钱，因为他们还对那段经历心有余悸。
All the people that I knew that bought a lot of these things, they didn't put more money into it because they still had PTSD from what they went through.
我觉得现在有一个阶段，资产管理者们正在寻找投资机会。
I think there's a a period here where the asset managers are looking to invest.
我觉得现在推动加密货币上涨的主要是新玩家入场。
I think most of what's driving crypto right now is a combination of new players coming in.
这就是牛市的样子，你说得对。
This is what a bull market is about, and you're right.
FOMO很快就会开始发酵，非常快。
FOMO is gonna start to kick in very, very soon.
我之前说过，当比特币突破82000时，那就是牛市趋势的确认。
I said before when Bitcoin got above 82,000, that was the confirmation of the bull trend.
我觉得我们现在就处于这个阶段。
I think we're in that.
基本面每天都在变得越来越强。
The fundamental side's getting stronger and stronger by the day.
我觉得我们正处在一个即将爆发的节点，尤其是今天失业率低于预期。
I I think we're at a point where this stuff is about to kinda take off, particularly with what happened today with the unemployment rate being lower than expected.
如果你把本周所有关于利率的消息综合起来看，你会发现，大卫·泽尔沃斯加入了美联储……
If you take everything that happened this week from the rate picture and you look at it and you're like, David Zervos brought into the Fed...
被带进了财政部。
Brought into the treasury.
他想……
He wants...
他是个非常有创意的人。
He's he's a very creative guy.
我们将会……
We're gonna...
他被请来是为了帮助压低长期利率。
He's he's being brought in to help get long term rates lower.
他们又进行了一次回购，又一次，你知道，国债收益率曲线，国债，扭曲操作，随便你怎么叫，就是后端和前端之间的扭曲。
They did another buyback, another, you know, treasury yield curve, treasury, twitch, whatever you wanna call it in terms of the twisting of the back end versus the front end.
我们得到了低于预期的核心PCE。
We got a lower than expected PCE core.
现在失业率数据低于预期，时薪也低于预期。
Now we got an unemployment number that came in weaker than expected with an hourly earnings that came in weaker than expected.
所以利率可能会在这里稳定下来。
So maybe rates settle here.
它们不一定非得下降，各位。
They don't have to go down, guys.
它们只需要不再每天上涨，我觉得中期选举结束后，我们可能会看到一种局面，大家会想，我们当初为什么在等？
They just need to not be a story where every day they go up, and I think we could be staring at a a position coming out of the midterms where people are like, why were we waiting?
盈利增长很快，而且两周后我们就要进入财报季了。
Earnings are just growing rapidly, and we're entering earnings season in two weeks.
今天的节目由GalaxyOne赞助播出。
Today's episode is brought to you by GalaxyOne.
很多人都在让钱为自己工作。
A lot of people got their money working for them.
但现在的问题是，钱工作得有多努力？
But the question now, how hard is it working?
GalaxyOne那边的人，他们采取了一种非常不同的方法。
Well, the folks over at GalaxyOne, they're taking a very different approach.
每个人使用GalaxyOne现金都能赚取3.5%的年化收益率。
Everyone earns 3.5% APY using GalaxyOne cash.
如果你年收入超过20万美元，那你很可能就是合格投资者，然后你的现金最高可以获得8%的收益，由Galaxy Digital担保。
And if you make over $200,000 a year, that means you're probably an accredited investor, and then you can earn up to 8% on your cash guaranteed by Galaxy Digital.
不过最棒的是，你可以设置让收益立即再投资到你最喜欢的股票、加密货币或ETF中。
The best part, though, is that you can actually set it so that your yield immediately is reinvested into your favorite stocks, crypto, or ETFs.
你不需要每个月都操心这件事。
You don't gotta think about it every single month.
它会自动帮你完成。
It just automatically does it for you.
这就是我喜欢GalaxyOne的原因。
That's why I love GalaxyOne.
所以，如果你的现金没有像你一样努力工作，那就是时候行动了。
So if your cash isn't working as hard as you are, then it's time to make a move.
点击描述中的链接，今天就开始赚钱吧。
Check out the link in the description and start earning today.
本期节目由Lava赞助播出。
This episode is brought to you by Lava.
Lava Card是第一张让你每次消费都能获得高达5%比特币返现的信用卡。
The Lava Card is the first credit card that allows you to earn up to 5% back in Bitcoin on every single purchase.
大多数信用卡年费高昂，积分计划也不清晰，但Lava Card提供了更好的选择。
Most cards have steep annual fees and unclear points programs, but the Lava Card offers a much better deal.
每次消费都能赚取真实的比特币。
Earn real Bitcoin every time that you spend.
而且，没有年费。
Plus, there's no annual fee.
国际消费时，零外汇手续费，零价差。
There's zero FX fees and zero spread when you spend internationally.
此外，Lava还提供比特币信用额度、现金收益、即时稳定币存取款，以及银行账户的进出通道，还有更多功能。
On top of that, Lava gives you access to a Bitcoin line of credit, yield on cash, instant stablecoin deposits and withdrawals, on and off ramps to and from your bank account, and much, much more.
使用Lava，你可以以最低利率借入比特币，赚取收益，全球转账，并在每次消费中积累比特币。
With Lava, you can borrow against your Bitcoin at the lowest rates, earn yield, move money globally, and stack Bitcoin with each and every purchase you make.
大多数金融服务都会用高额费用和复杂的奖励计划来压榨你。
Most financial services squeeze you with high fees, confusing rewards programs.
Lava 让一切变得简单，他们帮你通过日常消费来积累长期储蓄。
Lava keeps it simple, and they help you build your long term savings via your everyday spend.
今天就访问 lava.xyz/pump，几分钟内就能开始。
Visit lava.xyz/pump to get started in just a few minutes today.
lava.xyz/pump，今天就开始吧。
Lava.xyz/pump to get started today.
你去过高中橄榄球赛吗？
You ever gone to a, high school football game?
去过很多次。
Many times.
然后你会看到场边的年轻球员，到了第四节，他们就会像这样举起四根手指。
And, you see the the young men on the sidelines, fourth quarter comes, and they start holding up the four fingers like this.
对。
Yep.
你可能不知道，但那些最早看我们播客的老观众，每到第四季度，我们就会这样。
You don't know this, but the, the OG podcast viewers, every fourth quarter, we go like this.
你知道为什么吗？
You know why?
为什么？
Why?
因为加密货币特别喜欢第四季度。
Because crypto loves the fourth quarter.
非常喜欢。
It loves it.
就像高中橄榄球队那样，他们觉得第四季度是他们的天下。
Like, just like the high school football team's like, we win the fourth quarter.
加密货币也一样，觉得第四季度是它的主场。
Crypto's like, we win the fourth quarter.
今天是10月3号。
It's October 3.
你知道吗，你有没有见过公牛在冲刺前，会把蹄子往地里刨，扬起一些尘土？
You know, like, you ever seen a bull right before he stampedes, he kinda digs his feet into the ground and throws up some dust?
10月3号，公牛就是这么做的。
October 3, that's what the bulls do.
然后就是第四季度了。
And then it's fourth quarter.
就像，我们来了。
Like, here we go.
我觉得是在夏天的时候，第一次……
I think it was over the summer that when it first...
当我们经历那次“七西格玛”波动时，我提醒过观众和你，今年的观点是，基于机构投资者所做的工作，当我们到年底时，会发生一些非常重要的事情。
When we had the Seven Sigma move that I reminded both the audience and you that the viewpoint for this year was that based on the work being done by institutional investors, that when we came to the end of the year, something very important happened.
所以这会和你说的第四季度对上，但我觉得这个最重要。
So this will match up with your fourth quarter thing, but I think this one's the most important.
这是为了进口……
It's for import...
让大家听到。
For people to hear.
这就是我的想法。
This is my mindset.
Jordi 毫不在意。
Jordi's unbothered.
他就觉得，别拿第四季度来烦我们。
He's just like, get out of here with this fourth quarter.
直接给我们一个四就行了。
Just give us a four.
咱们开始吧。
Let's put it on.
周期，我不在乎，这个我也不在乎。
Cycle, don't care about, and this I don't care about.
但我知道一件事。
But I do know this.
大型资金分配者和决策者在第四季度为下一个日历年做出非常重要的决定。
Large allocators and decision makers make really important decisions for the following calendar year In the fourth quarter.
在第四季度。
In the fourth quarter.
这之所以重要，尤其是在最后两个月，是因为他们的薪酬与业绩挂钩，而业绩结算大约在十一月末到年初之间。
And the reason that's important, and particularly in the final two months, they get paid on performance, which crystallizes sometime around that end of the, you know, November and into the beginning of the year.
哦，外面有人。
Oh, there's somebody out there.
他们现在赚大了。
They're up big right now.
他们在卖出，而且直到十二月都不会碰他们的仓位。
They're selling, and they're not gonna touch their till December.
没错。
Exactly.
所以如果你想参与加密货币，他们正在做功课。
And so if you wanna get involved with crypto, they're doing their homework.
他们遇到的问题是这样的……
The problem they're running into...
很多人问过我这个问题，那我能买什么呢？
I've been asked this many times, so what can I buy?
我就说，你可以买……
And I go, well, you can either buy out...
可以买那些ETF，或者各种相关的债务，也可能有五家公司……
Buy the, you know, the ETFs or the, you know, the debts of the various ones, or maybe there's five companies...
公开交易的股票，你
Public stocks you
可以买。
can buy.
确实很难，但他们还是想买。
It's really hard, but they wanna do it.
所以我觉得，那些L开头的东西开始变得……你知道，它们不会主导市场，但……
So I think that's where the l ones start to become, you know, they're not gonna drive things, but there...
这些资产会有一个潜在的买盘，让整个生态系统保持稳定，这意味着波动性还是会出现在所有通讯中，但在代币化开始之前，这种波动性不会由机构管理者来驱动。
There's gonna be an underlying bid for these things that keeps the ecosystem grounded, and that means that the beta is gonna continue to show up in the all comms, but the beta is gonna be driven not by the institutional managers until the tokenization starts to happen.
这就是为什么代币化如此重要。
That's why tokenization is so important.
所以我有两个数据点要分享。
So there's two, two data points that I will, I will share.
我记得在五月或六月，我发了一条推文，让所有看好AI的人都失望了，我说当AI的利润回流到比特币时，那将会非常壮观。
I think back in May or June, I tweeted much to the disappointment of all the AI bulls, and I said, it's gonna be glorious when the AI profits rotate back into Bitcoin.
我当时有点挑衅，但确实。
And I was trolling a little bit, but Mhmm.
我确实相信，很多加密货币的收益都流向了AI。
I do believe that, you know, a lot of the crypto gains went into AI.
人们继续。
People continue.
你有这个势头，现在你会看到这种资金回流。
You got the momentum, and now you're gonna kinda see this rotation back.
确实感觉这种情况开始有点出现了。
It does feel like that's starting to happen a little bit.
你说得对，我觉得对AI的兴趣不会消失。
To your point, I don't think that the interest in AI is going away.
我只是觉得人们对比特币和加密货币的兴趣越来越大了。
I just think that people are becoming a little bit more interested in Bitcoin and crypto.
对。
And Mhmm.
所以现在你就有这两项技术。
So now you kinda have these two technologies.
第二件事，我真的很震惊。
The second thing, I am shocked.
现在，我相信Sylvia是唯一一家把AI和比特币结合在一起的上市公司。
Right now, I believe Sylvia is the only public company that has AI and Bitcoin kind of married together.
我们这样做的方式有点奇怪。
It's a it's a little bit of a weird way that we've done it.
是的。
Yep.
我非常非常震惊，可能你能想到的只有像Coinbase或Robinhood这样的公司，他们有加密货币产品，然后他们也在以某种方式使用人工智能。
I am very, very shocked that maybe the only ones you could assign to are like a Coinbase or like a Robinhood who have crypto products, and then they're, like, using AI, you know, in some form or fashion.
但我感觉这正在成为一种共识，这两种技术会互相受益，而且会一直存在。
But I feel like this is becoming somewhat of a more consensus view that these two technologies are gonna benefit from each other, and it's gonna be there.
我对2027年的一个预测是，你会开始看到公开市场受到冲击，人们……
One of my predictions for 2027 is you're gonna start to see an assault of public markets where people...
他们可能是人工智能相关的业务。
They may be an AI, you know, related business.
他们会开始尝试做加密货币的事情。
They're gonna start trying to do crypto stuff.
加密货币会更多地涉足人工智能。
Crypto will do more AI.
所以我认为投资者需要弄清楚的是，价值到底在哪里积累？
And so I think what investors are gonna have to try to figure out is, like, where does the value accrue?
所以你看……
So if you look at...
就拿Coinbase和Robinhood来说吧。
Take take maybe Coinbase and Robinhood.
Coinbase是从加密货币领域起家的。
Came from the crypto world.
而Robinhood是从券商领域来的。
Robin comes from the brokerage world.
他们最后好像都在争夺成为那个全能交易所的地位。
They kinda have ended up in this, like, know, war over who's gonna be, like, the everything exchange.
两家都是很棒的公司。
Both great businesses.
我觉得未来两家都会发展得很好，但它们的公司基因有点不一样。
I think both will do very well going forward, but they have kind of, like, the DNA of the company is a little bit different.
所以如果你说，嘿。
And so if you were like, hey.
我更倾向于七成加密货币、三成人工智能，那你可能会去买Coinbase。
I wanna be more like seventy thirty crypto to AI, you probably would go and buy a Coinbase.
如果你想七成股票、三成人工智能，那你就更倾向于Robinhood。
If you wanna be like seventy thirty, you know, equities, then...
或者偏向AI，你也会更倾向于Robinhood。
Or AI, you'd go like more Robinhood.
我觉得这对人们来说其实更难把握。
That I think is actually much harder for people to navigate.
再说回刚才说的，所有容易赚的钱都没了。
Again, going back to this, like, all the easy money's gone.
对。
Yep.
如果你是机构投资者，你会想，好吧。
If you're an institutional allocator and you're like, okay.
好的。
Cool.
我相信Jordi说的每一句话。
I believe it in everything Jordi is saying.
那我该把钱投到哪里呢？
Where do I go put my money?
现在你几乎要面对更复杂的决策了。
You're now almost getting, like, the the more intricate decisions.
所以第一点，我觉得就像我们之前聊到的，律师的建议会比单纯填文件更有价值。
And so one, I think that similar to how we talk about, like, lawyers' advice will become more valuable than the action of just, like, filling out the documents.
你的理念会变成共识，而现在更重要的是具体选哪些标的。
Your philosophy is going to become consensus, and now it is gonna become much more about, like, what are the specific names?
怎么考虑投资组合的构建？
How do I think about portfolio construction?
是一次性买入还是定投？
How do I think about one time purchase for dollar cost averaging?
我的意思是，非常具体的，你知道的，那种
I mean, like, very specific, you know, kind
一些战术性的东西。
of tactical things.
这就是...
This is where...
所以我...
So I'm...
而且你和我还没聊过这个，但我会，我会，我会，我会提一下。
And you and I haven't talked about this, but I'll I'll I'll I'll bring in.
因为我有订阅者想投资我创建的46个名字的指数，他们想。
So because I have subscribers that want to invest in the 46 name index that I created, they want to.
关于代币化？
Around tokenization?
嗯，它...
Well, it...
关于...
Around...
这其实真的是加密货币生态系统。
It's really the crypto ecosystem.
所以这真的是，嘿。
So this is really, hey.
代理们会去做一些事情。
Agents are gonna do things.
好的。
Okay.
这是整个生态系统都应该受益的。
This is the entire ecosystem that should benefit.
与其你自己去挑五个代币，我觉得我这样组合的美妙之处在于它是等权重的，包含了那些一级币，还有一堆二级币。
And rather than you go out and pick five tokens, I think the beauty of the way I put it together is equal weight, it's got the l ones, and then it's got a bunch of l twos.
46个名字。
46 names.
就只是，你不该说这个，但我这里有一份报告。
For for just, you're not allowed to say this, but I have a report here.
让我确认一下我没搞错。
Let me look to make sure I got this right.
VisserLabs 四十六个名字的指数，顺便说一句，我们得给你起个更好的名字。
The VisserLabs forty six name index, which, by the way, we gotta get you a better name.
VisserLabs 四十六个朋友。
VisserLabs forty six friend.
就像，你知道，不管人们对特朗普怎么说，好也罢坏也罢，这家伙很会搞品牌，超级智能可能有个更好的名字。
It's like, you know, for for whatever people say about Trump, good or bad, the guy's good at branding, and superintelligence probably has a better name.
VisserLabs 四十六个名字的指数今年至今上涨了 50%。
The VisserLabs forty six name index is up year to date 50%.
比特币截至昨天收盘下跌了 3.2%。
Bitcoin is down 3.2% as of the close yesterday.
所以我觉得这很清楚地表明，这跑赢了比特币这个基准。
So that I think gives a a pretty clear this is outperforming Bitcoin as a benchmark.
如果你看前一年，或者你知道，当比特币达到顶峰时，比特币表现更好，而所有的山寨币都表现不佳。
And if you would have looked the prior year or, you know, when Bitcoin peaked, Bitcoin was outperforming, and all of the altcoins were were underperforming.
这就是为什么这件事这么重要。
That's what makes this so important.
它跟AI联系起来了。
It ties it back to AI.
我想说的是，我现在正在联系资产管理公司。
What I was gonna say is I'm reaching out now to asset managers.
所以，任何在做相关业务的人，我管理过ETF。
So anyone out there who's doing anything, I ran ETFs.
只要你还活着。
If you breathe.
我在摩根士丹利管理过ETF。
I ran ETFs at Morgan Stanley.
我做过程序化交易。
I traded programs.
我交易过衍生品。
I traded derivatives.
未来是要让个人投资者和资产管理公司都能在一年内做到的事情，也就是某种代币化的方式，用智能代理来操作。
The future is to give both individual investors and asset managers what they're going to be able to do within a year, which is some kind of tokenized way to do this agentically.
这个比较……
This compares...
所以我要自己来设置这个。
So I'm gonna set this up myself.
我要来做这个。
I'm going to do this.
我还会连接API密钥，以便进行加密货币的研究。
I'm also gonna connect to API keys to be able to do the research on crypto.
到这个时候，你应该能把所有东西变成一个投资仪表盘，里面有那46个名字的指数。
At this point, you should be able to turn everything into an investment dashboard that has the 46 name index.
你只需按一下按钮，就能用智能代理进行交易。
You trade it with a push of a button with agents.
我要……
I'm gonna
我自己来做，然后我会把它设置好。
do that on my own, and I'm gonna set it up.
我不知道Robinhood现在能不能做到。
And I know don't if Robinhood can do it yet.
我也不知道Coinbase现在能不能做到。
I don't know if Coinbase can do it yet.
但其他任何人，我已经联系了Bill Bartide。
But anyone else out there, I reached out to Bill Bartide.
我正在联系。
I'm I'm reaching out.
如果有人想来找我合作，我不想推出ETF，但我确实希望我的订阅者能够以这种方式投资，因为这就是未来的趋势。
Anyone wants to come to me and work with me on this, I don't wanna launch an ETF, but I do want my subscribers to have the ability of investing that way because that's the way the future is gonna be.
一个代理可以出去把全部46个名字都处理掉，整个等权重，然后几秒钟内就完成了。
An agent can go out and do all 46 names, equal weight the whole thing, and then you have it done within seconds.
我们已经到了应该能完成这个的阶段。
We're at that point where it should be able to get done.
唯一的细节是，有42个代币，还有四只公开股票。
The only nuance is there's 42 tokens, and then there's four public stocks.
所以在代币化融合的世界里，这是一场看谁能先处理Jordi投资组合的比赛。
So in the world of the merging of tokenization, it's a race to see who can handle Jordi's portfolio first.
我喜欢这个想法。
I like this idea.
我确实认为这就是世界的发展方向。
I do think this is where the world is going.
我不认为它会像大家说的那样快实现。
I do not think it will happen as fast as everyone claims it will.
而且，我会介绍你认识几位律师，因为在我们走这条路的过程中，嗯。
And, I will, introduce you to a couple lawyers, because as we've gone down this path Uh-huh.
有很多非常过时的规则，关于他们如何推动这件事实现。
There are a lot of very antiquated rules around how they will empower this to happen.
所以，我是一家叫Autopilot的公司的投资者。
And so, I'm an investor in a company called Autopilot.
他们做的事情有点类似……
They do something similar...
不太一样，但本质上差不多。
Different but but similar.
我觉得他们做得很好。
I think they've done a great job.
现在你看到智能交易了，eToro、Robinhood、Coinbase。
You now are seeing the agentic trading, eToro, Robinhood, Coinbase.
他们都在往那个方向发展。
Like, they're all going into that.
Public 有这个功能，你描述一下，它就会帮你创建一个指数，有点像自定义指数。
Public has this, like, describe something, and it will then create an index for you, kind of a custom index.
我觉得你也许可以在产品里基于它进行交易。
I think maybe you can kinda trade off of it in the product.
Supertake，我们最近聊过，你知道，我觉得 Snow 的……
Supertake, we we recently talked about in terms of like, you know, I think snow's...
山上会下很多雪。
It's gonna snow a lot in the mountain.
那我该怎么围绕这个主题来投资呢？
Like, how do I invest along that theme?
这绝对是世界发展的方向。
Like, this is definitely where the world is headed.
我觉得最有趣的地方有两点。
What I think is maybe most interesting is twofold.
创建它并上线，这很容易。
Creating it and putting it on, easy.
但人们怎么卖出、怎么调仓之类的，我觉得是……
How do people sell or rotate or that type of stuff, I think is...
我们只需要想办法解决。
We just need to figure it out.
我觉得大家在这方面花的时间真的不多。
I don't think people have really spent a lot of time there.
第二件事就是，规则得跟上这种投资方式，因为坦白说，现在的规则都是针对ETF、共同基金这类东西制定的。
And then the second thing is the rules have to catch up with this type of investing because the rules are frankly situated for ETFs, mutual funds, like that stuff.
这才是未来。
This is the future.
但如果我跟你说，嘿。
But, like, if I said to you, hey.
你得先成为注册投资顾问才能做这个，你可能会说，我没兴趣。
You gotta go become an RIA to do this, you probably would be like, I'm not interested.
我不确定你是不是非得这样。
I don't know if you have to.
但平台肯定得，如果它们要支持这些东西，就得做一些法律上的准备。
But the platforms, for sure, if they're gonna empower this stuff, there are legal things that they needed to do.
我们正在进入一个奇怪的世界，比如，如果代理在做交易，那代理需要被监管吗？
We're entering a weird world where, like, if the agents are doing the trading, like, are the agents regulated?
你知道，我一直说的一个事情就是，以前在加密货币领域，交易所必须向SEC提交某些文件。
You know, one the things I've always talked about is, in crypto back in the day, there's certain things that exchanges have to file with the SEC.
那如果是去中心化的，它怎么申报呢？
Well, if it's decentralized, how does it file?
还有，规则怎么执行呢？
And then, like, also, how do you enforce the rules?
所以交易所的去中心化一直是个有意思的话题，因为监管机构并不是说你们在恶意操作。
So decentralization for exchanges is always an interesting thing because regulators weren't like, you're not even trying to be malicious.
只是说，我们之间怎么对接呢？
Just like, how do we interface with each other?
我觉得这个问题现在以一种奇怪的方式出现了。
I think this is now coming in a weird way.
你说的这种，几乎就像是一个去中心化的ETF。
What you're talking about is almost like a decentralized ETF.
监管机构怎么……
How do how does the regulators...
规则怎么对接呢？
How do the rules interface?
我觉得他们还没有答案。
I don't think they have an answer yet.
他们还在摸索中，
They're they're trying to figure it out,
但他们
but they
还没有
don't have
答案。
an answer.
所以一年后会发生什么呢。
So here's what's gonna happen a year from now.
我一直说一年后，是因为我觉得我们现在正处于我所说的‘微瞬间’，人们总是低估了事情发展的速度。
And I keep saying a year from now because my mindset is that we are at the micron moment, as I call it, where people just underestimate how fast this stuff goes.
如果我说对了，一年后，所有的理财顾问和财富管理公司都会陷入非常非常困难的境地。
And if I'm right, every wealth advisor, every wealth management firm is gonna be in a very, very difficult position a year from now.
他们的客户会开始听说有人在加密货币上赚了很多钱。
Their clients are gonna start hearing about how people are making a lot of money in crypto.
他们会听到加密货币，但与其说是加密货币，我希望大家就把它想成是在代币上赚钱。
And they're gonna hear crypto, and rather than crypto, I want everyone to just think they're making money in tokens.
当然，股票肯定会被代币化。
Well, stocks are gonna be tokenized for sure.
那它们会以同样的方式运作吗？
Now will they be the same way?
这里会有新兴的东西，但如果人们说，嗯，我听说，你知道，我听说乔和玛丽在这里赚了30倍的钱。
There's gonna be emerging here, but if people go, well, I I heard, you know, I heard Joe and Mary just made 30 times their money over here.
如果我对正在发生的事情的判断是对的，这就是奇怪的地方，你得回到微米那个例子。
This is the weird part about if I'm right about what's happening, and you have to go back to the micron example.
在我的经历中，我从未见过像我的智能体投资组合基础设施那样的现象，我以为微米会翻倍。
Never in my time have I seen what I saw with my agentic portfolio infrastructure, which is I thought micron would double.
我以为它可能会翻三倍。
I thought it might triple.
14倍？
14 times?
那完全是基于盈利增长。
Now that was totally based on the earnings growth.
我看到加密货币交易量、代币交易量因为代币化、稳定币支付和AI代理而飙升。
I see the crypto volumes, the token volumes going through the roof because of tokenization and because of stablecoin payments, because of AI agents.
如果不是因为代理，它们会加速这个过程，让它更容易，我就不会这么乐观了。
If it wasn't for agents, which will speed this process up to make it easier, I wouldn't be as optimistic on it.
所以现在开始了，我觉得每个定期看我们节目的听众，我们有不少观众，这是你们需要提前关注的问题。
So it started now, and I think everyone listening who watches us regularly, of which we have a good sized audience, this is a problem you wanna be ahead of.
无论是作为个人投资者，
Both as an in...
你都需要开始做研究。
Personal investor, you wanna start doing your research.
这个周末，我会再做一个关于加密货币的视频，加上我每周的常规视频。
This weekend, when I go through, I will do another video on crypto plus my regular weekly video.
我会重点介绍七个单独的播客。
I am gonna highlight seven separate podcast.
我不仅和伊利亚聊过，还和威廉聊过，你之前也请过他上节目。
I not only spoke to Ilya at near, I spoke to William who you've had on.
他表现非常出色。
He was amazing.
太棒了。
Brilliant.
真是个了不起的人。
Brilliant guy.
他有一本新书要出版。
He's got a new book coming out.
我觉得他的书大概还要三到六个月才能出来。
It's gonna take another three to six months, I think, for his book to come out.
你得密切关注这些人。
You have to be on top of these guys.
约瑟夫·查拉姆，或者查拉姆，他之前在贝莱德工作。
Joseph Chalam or Chalam, who was at BlackRock.
他们都在关注这个。
All over it.
好的。
Okay.
他……
He...
他们都在关注这个，而且他们在告诉你为什么要投资，以及为什么现在这个时刻很重要。
They're all over it, and they're telling you why to invest in it, and they're telling you why this moment matters now.
其中很大一部分原因和监管有关，但最主要的是，这三个人很久以前就看到了这个愿景正在实现，而且他们都是来自不同背景、值得尊敬的人。
And a lot of it has to do with the regulatory side, but most of it has to do with the three of them saw this vision a long time ago playing out, and they're all respectable people with different backgrounds.
一个来自传统华尔街，一个来自Napster，一个来自谷歌。
One traditional Wall Street, one Napster, one Google.
真的。
Seriously.
我的意思是，当我遇到一群非常非常聪明、背景各异的人时，我这个周末会上传他们三个的六期播客，你们一定要去看看这些内容，跟上节奏。
I mean, when I get a diversity of people that are very, very bright, and I'm gonna be putting six podcasts from the three of them up this weekend, you gotta go watch this stuff and be on top of it.
女士们先生们，今天就到这里。
Ladies and gentlemen, that's it.
感谢大家观看。
I appreciate all of you guys watching.
最近有很多新朋友一直在看我们的节目。
We got a lot of new people who've been watching this lately.
我们很感激你们。
We appreciate you.
记得订阅我们的频道。
Make sure you subscribe to the channel.
告诉你的朋友们。
Tell your friends.
把这个节目分享给别人。
Text us to somebody.
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