比特币涨势为何才刚刚开始 | 汤姆·李

大家好，我是安东尼·庞普利亚诺。很多人叫我庞普。您现在收听的是庞普播客，这是我为寻找全球最有趣的人物并与之长谈数小时而发起的项目，通过提问来学习。如果您能在您喜爱的音频平台订阅本节目，在YouTube观看视频，并向亲朋好友推荐这个播客，对我而言将意义非凡。

What's up, everyone? This is Anthony Pompliano. Many of you know me as Pomp. You're listening to the Pomp podcast, which is my effort to find the most interesting people in the world and sit with them for hours while I ask questions in an effort to learn. So it would mean the world to me if you would subscribe to the show on your favorite audio platform, watch episodes on YouTube, and tell your friends and family about the podcast.

我的目标是帮助数百万人向全球最具启发性的人物学习。现在让我们开始今天的节目。

My goal is to help millions learn from the world's most interesting people. So let's get into today's episode.

安东尼·庞普利亚诺运营庞普投资公司。其本人及播客嘉宾的所有观点仅代表个人意见，与庞普投资立场无关。您不应将庞普或其嘉宾表达的任何观点视为具体投资建议或策略指引，这些仅代表其个人观点。本播客仅供信息参考。

Anthony Pompliano runs Pomp Investments. All views of him and the guests on his podcast are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of Pomp Investments. You should not treat any opinion expressed by Pomp or his guests as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his personal opinion. This podcast is for informational purposes only.

黄金价格通常先行动，然后比特币跟进。嗯。我认为黄金的网络价值最近大幅上涨。假设黄金稳定在5000美元，那么比特币的公允价值——如果达到黄金的网络价值——大概会在1.06美元到200万美元之间。

Well, gold is moves first, and then Bitcoin catches up. Mhmm. So I think that there is going to be the network value of gold just went up by a lot. And so let's say gold settles at 5,000. That puts fair value of Bitcoin, you know, like, $1.06 to 2,000,000 if it matches gold's network value.

所以我认为这实际上是在提升比特币未来的终极价格。

So I think it's actually helping Bitcoin's future terminal price.

我们预计多久能实现这个目标？伙计们，今天我们有幸邀请到汤姆·李。汤姆身兼三职：他是Funstraat联合创始人，

What's the time frame for us to get there? What's going on, guys? Today, we got a great episode with Tom Lee. Tom has three different jobs. He is the cofounder of Funstraat.

Funstraat资本首席投资官，同时还是Bitmint董事长。在这次对话中，我们讨论了股市走势、AI是否泡沫化、为何这是人类历史上最遭人诟病的牛市。他还深入解释了为何媒体灌输的大量经济数据其实不值得采信——其中存在大量偏见和问题。他将详细剖析这些现象。

He is the CIO of Funstraat Capital, and he's also the chairman of Bitmint. In this conversation, we talk about the stock market, whether AI is a bubble, why this is the most hated rally in all of human history. And then he even goes into explaining why so much of the economic data that you're being fed in the media not is something I actually listen to. And there's lot of bias and issues with it. He's gonna explain what that is.

接着我们讨论了比特币、黄金、以太坊等等。他还向我们解释了加密货币领域的现状，以及为什么创新产品通常优于传统领域的产品。比如Polymarket或Truflation这样的项目。内容非常丰富，希望大家喜欢。

And then we talk about Bitcoin, gold, Ethereum, and much, much more. And then he even explains to us what's going on in the crypto world and why the breakout products are usually better than what you see in the traditional world. Things like Polymarket or Truflation. Lots and lots of insights in this. I hope you guys enjoyed.

这是我与汤姆·李的最新对话。汤姆，我觉得可以从大家最担心的AI泡沫开始聊。我们知道AI是真实的技术，企业都在应用它，但人们仍认为当前投入过度了。

Here's my latest conversation with Tom Lee. Alright, Tom. I thought a great place to start the conversation is everyone is worried about the AI bubble. We know that AI is real technology. We know that companies are using it, but people still think that there's too much spending going on.

这个巨大的泡沫即将破裂，世界末日要来了，股市会崩盘。你怎么看？

There's this big bubble that's going to pop. The world's going to end. Stock market's going to crash. What do you think?

如果从风险回报比来衡量泡沫，我们离泡沫还很远。1998年9月的情况与现在类似——当时美联储暂停加息后又在9月降息，当时最大的公司思科市盈率是福特的56倍，18个月后达到210倍。思科生产的是有众多竞争对手的普通路由器，而如今英伟达是AI领域最稀缺的公司，他们生产的芯片是所有顶级模型开发者的必需品。

I mean, if if we're measuring bubbles based on like risk reward, we're pretty far from it because in 1998, September, which is similar to today because Fed was on pause, and then they started cutting again in September, Cisco, which was the biggest company at the time, was trading at 56 times Ford PE. 18 later, it got to 210 times. Now Cisco made a commodity router that had many competitors. NVIDIA today is the singular most scarce company in AI. They make a chip that everyone who is building a premier model needs.

现在英伟达的市盈率是福特的27倍，而好市多是50倍，沃尔玛是34倍。所以英伟达比会员制俱乐部公司还便宜。这就是为什么我说我们离泡沫还很远。

It's trading at 27 times Ford earnings. Costco trades at 50 times Ford earnings and Walmart's 34 times. So Nvidia is still cheaper than a membership club company. So I I'd say that's why we're pretty far from a bubble.

当你向那些对AI公司持怀疑态度的人提出这些时，他们如何回应？

And when you bring that up to people who are skeptical or critical of kind of the AI companies, what is their response to that?

我觉得人们会说这是普遍性的股票估值过高问题。我最近在拉美时，很多养老基金客户就这么说。但在我看来，问题在于股票正在试图贴现未来。AI不仅是劳动力替代工具——虽然我们可以计算岗位替代率，这确实是个应用场景。

I think people then say, well, there's a generalized stocks are expensive problem. Because I was just in Latin America, that's what a lot of the pension clients said. But to me, the problem people have is that stocks are trying to discount the future. And AI is not only a labor replacement. So we can calculate job replacement, and that's a use case.

但这里存在自主性和超级智能的潜力，能提升生产力。那么我们该如何在当前股价中体现这一点？实际上我认为股票仍被低估，而且我知道黄仁勋最近在纽约会见了分析师，大家的主要共识是：在AI领域，那些投入资金的企业已开始看到AI投资的回报，这意味着支出正在增加。我认为AI支出实际上正在加速。

But then there's this agentic and superintelligence potential, which creates productivity. So how do we discount that in the stock price today? I actually think stocks are still cheap, and I know Jensen was in New York recently, met with some analysts, and I think a lot of the takeaways people had is that in the AI world, companies, enterprises that are spending are starting to see payoff on the AI spend, which means spending is picking up. I actually think AI spending is actually accelerating.

有意思的是，人们总在喊泡沫，但喊的人越多，反而越不像真有泡沫。想想看，如果每次AI公司CEO开口都说'我们供不应求'，这还怎么形成泡沫？更别说财报季里，那些市值万亿的公司还在说'我们增长比预期更快'。

Well, it always is funny to me how people are yelling bubble, the but more people who yell bubble, it seems like the less likely we're in one. Yeah. Then how do you have a bubble if every time you hear an AI CEO open their mouth, they're like, we can't keep up with demand. Right? And then on top of that, the earnings reports are coming out and there's companies that are trillion plus dollar market caps that are like, we're growing faster than we thought we were going to grow.

我们用更少员工创造了更高利润，这意味着效率和生产力的提升，因此企业价值应该更高。对吧？

We're driving more profitability with less employees, which means that they're becoming more efficient, more productive, hence they should be more valuable. Right?

确实。你提到关键点了——我在三十年研究生涯中经历过三次泡沫。最近的是生物科技泡沫，之前是房地产泡沫，再往前是互联网泡沫。

Yeah. Yeah. And you you make a key point because I've experienced three bubbles in my three decades doing research. The biotech bubble was the most recent. The one before that was the housing bubble, and the one previous to that was the Internet bubble.

这三次泡沫中，人们不仅用各种理由否认泡沫存在，还出现了典型的泡沫行为。比如生物科技泡沫时，医疗对冲基金为抢占先机直接资助大学项目——这在我看来就是泡沫行为。而房地产泡沫时人们的疯狂举动，目前在AI领域完全没出现。事实上现在AI投资都太理性了，根本不像泡沫。

And three of three times, not only were people denying the existence of the bubble because they could explain it away, but we saw behaviors that were indicative of a bubble. In the biotech bubble, hedge funds, health health care hedge funds were funding university projects so they could get in front of the molecule. I mean, if that that was, like, bubble behavior to me. And as you know, in housing, people were doing ludicrous and absurd things, that's not happening in AI. In fact, everyone's so measured in AI today that it doesn't feel like a bubble.

市场上其他领域可能存在泡沫，但AI领域不会。

There could be a bubble somewhere else in the market, but it wouldn't be.

你提到估值倍数的问题。当我说这句话时，很多资深人士会气得七窍生烟——但我认为历史估值方法可能不再适用。我的逻辑是：企业现在更有价值，而且股票现在可能带有以前不存在的货币溢价。这很难量化，就像通胀调整价格那样，或许我们需要类似货币溢价调整后的市盈率指标。

So you mentioned valuation multiples. One of the things that a lot of the older crowd who's been around for a while, their kind of brains break and smoke comes out of their ears when I say this, but I actually think maybe you can't use historical valuations the same way that you can today. And my logic has always been the companies are more valuable, but also there's like a monetary premium in stocks now that maybe previously didn't exist. And it's hard to quantify. So I don't know, you know, what are the comparisons, the same way you have like inflation adjusted prices, there almost feels like there needs to be like a monetary premium adjusted share, you know, multiple or something.

是的。而且人们还在有意忽视估值实际上是动态变化的。从1940年到1967年，利率从2%升至6%，按理说市盈率应该在这27年间下降。但市盈率却从8倍涨到了27倍。换句话说，名义利率上升时，盈利增速更快，所以市盈率反而提高了。

Yeah. And also people are are willfully overlooking that valuations are actually they're they're dynamic. You know, from 1940 to 1967, the tenure went from 2% to six, And everyone should say PE should have fallen in that twenty seven year period. The PE went from eight times to 27 times. So in other words, as nominal rates rose, earnings accelerated, and so the PE went up.

那个年代70%的企业盈利还是周期性的。如今标普500指数中大部分盈利来自重复性收入，理应享受更高估值倍数。而实际上十年期国债收益率4%时，市盈率是25倍——债券市场本身就很贵。

And that was in a time when 70% of the earnings generated were cyclical. Today, most of the earnings is recurring revenue in the S and P, which is higher multiple. And in fact, the ten year bond is at 4%. It's at 25 PE. I mean, the bond market's expensive.

没错。所以我认为你是对的。更何况过去五年我们经历了六次黑天鹅事件：新冠疫情、供应链牛鞭效应、

Yeah. So I think you're correct. I mean, plus in the last five years, we had six black swans. We had COVID. We had the supply chain bullwhip effect.

通胀泡沫、美联储史上最快加息、关税恐慌，还有美国轰炸伊拉克核设施。六次黑天鹅期间市场盈利仍在增长。我倒觉得市盈率应该更高，因为股市刚刚通过了压力测试。

We had an inflation bubble, the Fed's fastest hikes in history. We had the tariff terrors and US bombing Iraq's nuclear facilities. Six black swan events. And the market grew earnings during that time. I would argue PE should be higher because we just battle tested the stock market.

话说回来，如果你回溯

Well, if you go back

到2020年，我亲身经历过那段时期。经济复苏后我和朋友们讨论：还有什么比把全民禁足在家、强制停业、货币流通速度归零更能重创美国经济？结果我们却回到了历史高点。这就引出了彼得·林奇那句名言：'如果你在研究经济学上花了13分钟，那你有10分钟是浪费的'。

to 2020, I mean, I remember living through that. And once we were on the other side of the recovery, I sat down with a group of friends, I said, Is there anything that we could do that would be more disastrous for The U. S. Economy than like lock everyone in their homes, shut down their businesses, velocity of money goes to zero? And we're back to all time highs, which then begs the question, Peter Lynch is famous for the like, if you spend thirteen minutes on economics, you spend ten minutes too long.

七八十年代可能个股基本面比宏观因素更重要。但现在感觉反过来了——虽然公司基本面仍需关注，但美联储政策、市场动能和网络情绪的影响力似乎已压倒基本面。

I don't know, in the seventies and eighties, like maybe actually the stock fundamentals were more important than macro. Today, it almost kind of feels the opposite. Like, yes, you still need to pay attention to the company fundamentals, but like what the fed does or what is happening in terms of like the momentum and, and, you know, kind of the sentiment online feels like it dominates the company fundamentals.

确实如此。但你知道，自新冠疫情以来的这六年里，盈利表现一直非常出色。

Yeah, that's true. But, you know, in that six year period since COVID, earnings delivery has been amazing.

实质性的内容一直都在。

Mean The substance has been there.

没错。就像这个季度，85%的公司业绩超预期，最终仍将实现约15%的盈利增长。这可不是周期末段的盈利增速——末期通常是个位数增长。企业仍在通过多种方式提升利润率和收益，而且估值扩张空间充足。

Yeah. So like even this quarter, 85% of companies are beating results right now, and it's still going to result in basically 15% earnings growth. I mean, so that's not late cycle earnings growth. Late cycle would be single digits. So companies are still finding ways to grow margins and earnings, And there's plenty of multiple expansion.

我是说，金融类企业的经营成果现在看起来更像科技公司，但估值仍停留在金融板块水平。因此我认为很多板块都存在重新评级的可能。

I mean, financials, business results look more like tech companies now, but they still trade like financials. So I think there's a lot of groups that can re rate

更高。你们有支ETF叫'稳赢组合'，聊聊筛选这些公司的逻辑吧。然后我们可以谈谈你们目前看好的几个不同领域。

higher. You have an ETF called Granny Shots. Talk about the like logic that goes into putting these companies in there. And then maybe we can talk through some of these different sectors of where you guys are excited right now.

是的，'稳赢组合'是我们去年十月推出的ETF，至今已运作11个月。目前资产管理规模达33亿美元，是历史上最快突破30亿规模的基金之一。年初至今回报率为27.5%。

Well, yes, Granny Shots is an ETF we launched October, so it's eleven months now. It's gathered 3,300,000,000.0 of assets, so it's one of the fastest to reach 3,000,000,000 in history. Year to date, its return is 27.5%.

这个表现算好吗？

You Is that good?

是的。如果你查看晨星数据中大盘股票基金的表现，在1330只基金中，它排名第五。只有四只基金表现更好，其中两只是黄金基金，第三只是持有黄金的宏观基金。所以实际上，它在1330只基金中位列前两名。

Yeah. If you if you look at Morningstar data for large cap equity funds, out of 13 a universe of 1,330 funds, it is the fifth best performing. There's only four funds that are doing better. Two of them are gold funds, and the third one is a macro fund that owns gold. So, actually, it's a top two out of thirteen thirty funds.

但'Granny Shots'是一只低换手率基金，信奉超级周期理论。它最初是自2019年以来发布的Fund Strat研究清单。我们相信存在超级周期，因此Granny专注于七大主题：人工智能、能源安全、货币政策、ISM等。

But granny shots is a low turnover fund that believes in super cycles. So it was originally the research list of fund strat published since 2019. What we believe is there are super cycles. So there are seven themes that Granny focuses on. AI, energy security, monetary policy, ISM, etcetera.

它会构建股票清单，但只购买涉及两个主题的股票。理念是，同时关联两个主题的股票比单一主题表现更好。比如不仅是AI股，还是千禧一代概念股。基金持有35只股票，试图买入标普500中最佳的35家公司，今年表现非常出色，大约跑赢标普1200个基点。

And it builds lists, but then it only buys stocks that are in two themes. So the idea is, like, a stock tied to two themes is a better performer than a singular idea. So it's not just an AI stock, but it's a millennial stock. It's 35 names. It's trying to buy the 35 best s and p companies, and it's outperformed really well this year, like about 1,200 basis points versus S

那么，能举例说明一家涉及多个主题的公司吗？

and What would be an example of a company that has multiple themes that it kind of touches on?

我们实际上会对股票进行排序。最具'Granny特质'的股票——即涉及最多主题的——比如谷歌和Meta，因为它们与AI相关，属于千禧一代故事，同时提供安全性并对货币政策有正向杠杆作用。摩根大通也是'Granny Shot'，因为它本质上是千禧一代金融公司，Robinhood也在名单上。

So we actually sort it. So the granniest of the stocks, meaning in the most themes, are names like Google and Meta because they are AI related, they're they're millennial stories, but they provide security and they are positive leverage to monetary policy. So that's an example. But even a name like JPMorgan is a granny shot because it's actually a millennial financial company. Robinhood is also on that list.

但它还与金融条件宽松相关联。可以说它不是单一主题基金，而是在购买七大超级周期中最核心关联的35只股票。

But then it's linked to easing financial conditions. So you can sort of say instead of being like a single theme fund, it's buying the seven super cycles and the sevens the 35 stocks most centrally linked to all the super cycles.

你们是如何确定这七大主题的？

And how did you come up with the seven themes?

嗯，它会旋转。这是我们研究团队投入大量时间研究的内容。到2026年，我们将推出一些新主题，目前还处于保密阶段。但上次我们做出重大调整是在2019年。2019年或2019-2020年期间，最初的主题之一就是通胀上升。

Well, it rotates. And it's something that we on the research side, we spend a lot of time. So in 2026, we're going to be introducing some new themes, you know, which is under wraps right now. But the last time we made a big change was in 2019. So in 2019, or say 2019, 2020, the original one of the original themes was inflation set to rise.

当时我们主张全球正进入通胀普遍上升的时期。但新冠疫情爆发后，我们迅速将焦点转向了货币政策。

So we had argued we were entering a period of generally rising inflation. But then once COVID hit, we flipped that to monetary policy.

嗯。

Mhmm.

所以我们调整了超级周期，但事实上如果我们保留通胀上升的主题，它依然具有现实意义，因为通胀上升仍是当前趋势。

So we changed the super cycles, but actually if we kept the rising inflation, it still was relevant because rising inflation is still a thing.

您能透露下新主题会是什么吗？

And do you want to tell us what the new themes are going to be?

我可以提供几个备选让大家猜猜看。好的，没问题。

I can give you some candidates so that people can guess. Okay, perfect.

对我们来说，就像用眨眼两次来暗示正确答案那样。是的。

But to us, like Blink twice for the one that it is. Yeah.

你可以花时间观察肢体语言。但对我们来说，展望未来，我认为有三件新事物虽然出现不久却至关重要。第一是国家主权安全——实际上这已成为重要证据。各国都在推进产业回流，构建自主安全体系。

You can just take time body language. But to us, if I look forward, I think there are three things that are are new, but are really important. One is sovereign security. In fact, it's evidence. You know, nations are onshoring, building their own security.

摩根大通围绕这个理念成立了1.5万亿美元的基金。我认为这非常关键。第二是长寿科技——不是GLP类药物那些，而是真正围绕延长寿命的创新。比如日本已发现牙齿再生技术，

JPMorgan created a $1,500,000,000,000 fund around that idea. So I think that's really important. The second is longevity. And not the GLPs, the GLPs, because, but it's really, there are people building things around longevity. I mean, in Japan, you know, they found a way to regrow teeth.

Altus实验室研发出能重建膝关节软骨的分子，这具有重大意义，可能形成超级周期。还有Eight Sleep这类公司。第三是Alpha世代，

Altus Labs has built a molecule that can rebuild your cartilage on your knees. That's a huge deal. That's probably a super cycle. And companies like Eight Sleep or whatever. The third is Generation Alpha.

随着千禧一代逐渐年长，我们必须关注他们之后的世代。目前这三个领域都正在形成超级周期，我们需要评估哪个最接近需要投资的阶段。

So the young millennials are becoming old enough that you got to focus on the generation behind them. So there's three potential super cycles underway. We're just we're going to determine which one is the closest to requiring us to invest into it.

明白了，很有道理。AI领域的另一个主题是具身AI或人形机器人。显然特斯拉长期让市场困惑，但零售业很早就开始理解这个业务。不过这些筹集了大量资金的私营公司，

Got it. That makes that makes sense. Another theme around the AI stuff is this, like, embodied AI or the humanoid robots. Obviously, Tesla has befuddled the market for a long time, and I think retail was very early kind of understanding that business. There's a bunch of these private companies, though, that have raised a lot of money.

他们每天都在制造机器人，几乎每天都有令人震撼的新视频出现，让人惊叹'天哪这太疯狂了'。当这些企业开始进入公开市场时，你如何分析这类赛道？

They're building these robots. It feels like every day there's a new video that comes out that you're kind of like blown away by and you're like, Oh my God, this is going to be crazy. How do you think through like that type of sector as these start to get into the public markets?

这其实是我们现有主题之一——全球劳动力供给。自2018年起我们就指出世界正面临黄金年龄劳动力短缺。AI和机器人技术恰逢我们需要填补劳动力缺口之时。新兴技术初期会消耗大量资本——在做策略师之前我是无线行业分析师，当时这个行业就筹集了巨额资金。

Well, actually that is one of our existing themes, which is global labor suppliers. So since 2018, we've been writing about how the world is actually developing a shortage of prime age workers. So AI and robotics are coming at a time when we need to supply missing labor. I think nascent technologies waste capital in the beginning. I was a wireless analyst before doing strategy, and the industry raised a lot of money.

当时进行了大量实验。所有股票都参与其中，涉及无线领域共有八个细分类别——从手机基础设施、软件、运营商、基站到传统企业，但它们都同步经历周期并集体崩盘。所以我认为这种实验现象很正常。而且我认为，当自主机器人结合超级智能时，会释放出巨大潜力，这些都将通过区块链技术实现验证或赋能。

There were a lot of experiments. All the stocks moved in. There were in wireless, there were eight distinct categories from handset infrastructures, software, carriers, towers, incumbents, but they all moved in a cycle together and they all crashed together. So I think that it's okay to see all this experimentation. And I and, yeah, I think it I think there's a huge amount that gets unlocked with agentic robots, coupled with superintelligence, and it is powered or verified on the blockchain.

因此我认为人工智能和机器人正在大幅拓展加密货币的应用场景。

So I think AI and robots is really increasing the use case for crypto.

在这些视频中我不断注意到，这些机器人的应用场景完全超出我的想象。对吧？大家都知道它们会出现在仓库里搬运箱子这类工作。我们似乎都默认了两点：第一这必将发生，第二这没什么问题。对吧？

One of the things that, I keep seeing in these videos is, the use cases for these robots are things that I wouldn't have thought of. Right? I think everyone knows, like, it's going to be in the warehouse, it's going be moving boxes around. Like, I think we've all kind of accepted the fact, one, it's going happen and two, it's okay. Right?

要知道，你不在仓库工作，我也不在仓库工作。如果我在那里工作，可能会更担忧些。但大多数人反应都是'好吧，明白了'。最近Figure AI的视频显示，酒店前台的机器人会在客人走近时主动问候'电梯在这边'。

You know, you don't work in a warehouse. I don't work in a warehouse. If I did, maybe I'd be a little bit more worried. But for the most part, people are like, okay, got it. A recent video from Figure AI had the robot at the desk of the hotel and somebody walked up and it greeted and said, you know, elevator's over here.

我还看到One X展示用吸尘器的场景。当时我就想——等等，这些机器人能做的事情可能远超我们预期。那么你们会提前多久预判应用场景？是直接关联收入预测，还是说'听着，我们主要关注这七个主题方向来选公司，并不试图预测所有应用场景或全部收入潜力'？

I saw another one, One X had where they were using a vacuum. Yeah. And he started like, hold on a second here. Like these people might come for a lot more than what we thought they were going to do. And so how far in advance do you guys try to see, you know, what like use cases will be or how that ties to revenue versus you just say, look, these are the seven kind of thematic inputs and we're trying to pick companies but actually not predict, you know, all of the use cases or all of the revenue they can drive?

是的，我们的Fun Strat研究部门虽然追踪前沿科技，但最终要落实到公开市场的投资建议上。'奶奶策略'的决策周期更长，它只关注大盘股——只有当某项技术开始影响大盘股世界时，才会被纳入奶奶组合。

Yeah. Well, within so there's Fun Strat Research, which we track leading edge technology, but then we have to make investment ideas in the public space. Granny waits a little longer. It only cares about stocks that are in large cap. So it only when it becomes influencing the large cap world that it becomes part of the granny portfolio.

但你实际上提出了一个极其重要的问题——你描述的正是取代所有人类工作的场景。这就意味着在社会政策层面，我们必须重建税基，因为人们将失去工资收入。要知道政府2.8万亿税收主要来自个税。补偿方案就是要开始对机器人活动征税。我认为我们必须建立一套...

But you're you're actually raising a really big question because you've literally described things that replace every job. And, and that's where I think that as a social policy, we have to replace the tax base because now people don't have wage income. You know, 2,800,000,000,000.0 of the government's revenues come from people paying taxes. The offset is you have to start taxing robotic activities. I mean, I think we have to basically have a VA-

我们该怎么做？多年前我看到比尔·盖茨谈论这个话题时，说实话觉得他简直疯了，对吧？他在说什么啊？要给机器人征税。现在看这想法并不那么荒谬了。

How do we do this? I saw Bill Gates years ago talk about this and, to be fair, was like, this guy's lost his marbles, right? Like, what is he talking about? We're going to tax the robots. Now it's not so crazy.

那你觉得具体会是什么形式？

So what do you think that looks like?

我认为是微支付。会引入增值税。就像大多数国家都有消费税一样，我认为机器人执行每项活动时我们都会征税。由于美国家庭缴纳的2.8万亿美元税收中——抱歉是2.3万亿——其中1.8万亿来自前10%的富人，所以政府无需征重税就能获得可观收入。

I think it's micro payments. I think there's going to be a VAT. Like, there's just the same way that where there's a consumption tax in most countries, I think when robots do something, we're gonna tax every activity. And it doesn't have to be a lot for the government to raise a lot of revenues because of the $2,800,000,000,000 of tax revenues paid by households I'm sorry, dollars 2.3. Dollars 1.8 is paid by the top 10% of Americans.

实际上需要替代的税收约5000-6000亿美元。关税收入是3000亿。所以在30万亿规模的经济体中，仅对机器人活动征税就能轻松创造万亿税收。但这需要微支付系统——这就是加密货币的优势，比如泰达币支持12位小数，而美元最小单位只有美分。

So really, it's like 500 or $600,000,000,000 of tax revenues that have to be replaced. The tariffs are 300,000,000,000. So basically, just taxing robot activity on a 30,000,000,000,000 economy can easily generate a trillion of tax receipts. But I it it's gonna require a micro payment system. I mean, that's why crypto is better because, know, Tether is 12 digits, whereas the dollar is only in cents.

我们可能对每个动作征收0.00001美分的税，但这足以产生巨额...

I mean, we might be taxing everything at 0.00001¢ for every action, but that's enough to generate a lot

资金。就像每次机器人在仓库里移动货箱时都会被扣税，企业也愿意支付，毕竟不用再付人工费了。

of money. And that would be like every time the robot moves the box from one side of the warehouse to the other, there's that tax that gets hit and the company is willing to pay because they're not paying the human worker to do that.

没错。每次机器人完成创收活动——比如仓库作业、交易、甚至机器人出租车服务——都是可追踪的。嗯。

Yeah. So every time a robot's completed what's considered like a revenue activity, like in a warehouse, you can track it, In a transaction, you can track it. Mhmm. I mean, in a robot taxi ride, you could track it. Mhmm.

那些人会认为我们只是在此基础上加征了一项政府机器人税。

All those will think we'll have just a government robot tax put on top of that.

有意思。今天的节目由Arch Public赞助播出。市场变幻、头条频出、利率波动，但有一点始终不变：机会无处不在。Arch Public助您超越简单的买入持有策略。

Interesting. Today's episode is brought to you by Arch Public. As market shift, headlines break, and interest rates swing, one thing stays true. Opportunity is everywhere. At Arch Public, they help you do more than just buy and hold.

没错。他们的动态累积算法专为长期投资者打造，但真正出彩的是那些套利算法——专为收割波动性并加速核心头寸增长而设计。Arch Public产品最棒的部分是完全免费。对，您没听错。

Yes. Their dynamic accumulation algorithms are built for long term investors, but where they really shine, there are arbitrage algos designed to farm volatility and turbocharge your core positions. The best part of Arch Public's products is they're free. Yeah. You heard that right.

免费试用Arch Public。利用Solana、Sui和Doge等资产的剧烈波动，全自动地增持更多比特币。Arch Public已是Coinbase、Kraken、Gemini和Robinhood的首选合作伙伴，其团队随时助您在任意市场更智能地投资。立即访问archpublic.com，您的投资组合会感谢您。另外您提到过大量经济数据——

Try Arch Public for free. Take advantage of wild moves in assets like Solana, Sui, and Doge, and use them to stack more Bitcoin completely hands free. Arch Public is already a preferred partner with Coinbase, Kraken, Gemini, and Robinhood, and their team is here to help you build smarter in any market. Visit Arch Public today at archpublic.com, and your portfolio will thank you. Another thing that plays into this, you've mentioned quite a bit of economic data.

您还详细介绍了团队的分析。节目开始前您展示过，密歇根大学调查结果未来可能较难取信。能否以此为例说明为何人们开始质疑看到的经济数据？

You've also mentioned quite a bit of, I think, analysis that you guys have done. You were showing before we started that the UMichigan survey results may be a little bit harder to trust moving forward. Talk about this as one example of why people are starting to have questions about some of the economic data that they're reading? Yeah.

人们想当然地认为调查始终客观进行或已修正抽样偏差。密歇根调查是黄金标准，因其持续五十多年，衡量从「是否该买股票/买房」到通胀等消费者预期，并拥有庞大研究团队——简直像密大的一个企业。我们曾花两小时与其探讨方法论。

People have taken for granted that surveys have always been done objectively or adjusted for what could be sampling bias. The UMich survey is the gold standard because it's been run for more than fifty years and it's a measure of consumer expectations on everything from is it a good time to buy stocks to buy a house, inflation. And it has an army of researchers. It's like a business at UMich. We've tried to contact them before and we spent two hours walking through the methodology.

这是个庞大工程。不过他们提供原始数据，您能看到受访者情况。例如当前一年期通胀预期为4.3%，这个

It's an extensive operation. However, they provide the data and so you can see the survey respondents. For instance, on the one year inflation, that currently stands at 4.3%, which is So

从现在起一年后，人们认为通胀率将超过4%，

one year from now, people think that inflation will be over 4%,

是的。这与2022年通胀飙升时期的水平相同。换句话说，密歇根大学的调查显示消费者预期会出现像2022年那样的恶性通胀。但问题在于：细看数据会发现，民主党受访者给出的数字是4.5%或5.1%。

Yeah. And that's the same level it was during 2022, during the inflation surge. So in other words, the UMich survey says consumers are expecting hyperinflation just like 2022. But here's the problem. If you look at the breakdown, Democratic respondents say it's 4.5 or 5.1.

而共和党受访者则说是1%。明白吗？显然人们在回答时带有政治倾向。比如，不喜欢特朗普的人会夸大数字。在民主党受访者中，有4%的人认为通胀率高达30%。

Republican respondents say it's one. Okay? So obviously it's political when people answer. Like, people who don't like Trump are going to say it's through their effect. Of the Democratic respondents, 4% say inflation is 30%.

在回应密歇根大学调查的民主党人中，有4%认为明年通胀率将达到30%。

4% of Democrats who respond to the UMich survey say they think inflation next year will be 30%.

30%啊。这太荒谬了，对吧？

30%. So it's absurd, right?

我们真想找到这些人并做反向交易。

We would love to find those people and trade against them.

没错，这些人正在买黄金。但问题在于，这项调查没有根据整体人口结构进行调整。美国基本是共和党与民主党五五开，但过去一个月密歇根大学调查中65%的受访者是民主党人，而18个月前这个比例是49%。所以现在调查结果越来越反映民主党观点，这当然推高了通胀预期——但实际上通胀并未飙升。

Yeah, they're the ones buying gold. But the problem with this, this survey's not adjusting it for the generalized population. The US is essentially fiftyfifty Republican Democrat, but the UMich survey now, 65% of the respondents in the past month were democratic, and it was forty nine percent eighteen months ago. So now the survey is increasingly reflecting the results of democratic views, which of course is causing the inflation expectations to spike, but it's not really spiking.

那么这是方法论中的失职行为吗？是故意的吗？还是说随着时间的推移自然演变，有时会偏向民主党或共和党？比如你如何看待这一点——我想在你的研究或投资策略中使用这个数据点，你是现在全盘否定说‘我们不能用这个’，还是怎么看？

So is that something that is like malpractice in the methodology? Is that intentional? Is that just like naturally kind of flows over time and sometimes you get a little bit more Democrat, Republican? Like how do you view that as, okay, I want to use this data point in your research or kind of in your investment strategy, do you throw it all out now and say, hey, we can't use this? Or how do you view Yeah.

问题之一当然是算法系统和量化系统会采纳这些调查结果并进行交易。美联储必须对此作出反应，因为美联储关注的是预期锚定。他们主要参考纽约联储、世界大企业联合会和密歇根大学的三项调查——密歇根大学最近改变了方法，他们过去采用电话调查。

So one of the issues is, of course, algorithmic systems and quant systems take that survey result and they put on trades. And the Fed has to react to that because that's the Fed cares about anchored expectations. And there's just three surveys they look at that the New York Fed and Conference Board. UMich changed their methodology. They used to do telephone calls.

现在完全转为线上——通过邮件发送问卷。这些调查是否只针对特定人群发放？是否存在人为操控？我们不得而知，但整个过程我认为已经被污染了。

They now do it 100% online. They mail it out, email it to people. Are the surveys only being emailed to certain people now, or are they only you know, is there a finger on the scale? We don't know, but the process has, I think, become polluted. Yeah.

所以你们

And so do you

现在就直接取消资格不看那份调查了？好吧，

guys now just disqualify it and don't look at that survey? Well,

我们仍然会参考它，因为信不信由你，大多数客户都会指着说‘汤姆，通胀失控了，看看密歇根的数据’。当我试图向他们解释调查方法时，他们会反问‘为什么只有你指出这个问题？你真聪明’。

we still reflect it because believe it or not, most of our clients will point to the say, Tom, inflation's out of control. Look what the Umesh says. And then as I try to explain to them the methodology from them, they're like, how come you're the only one pointing this out? You're smart. Yeah.

我认为预测市场才是答案。像Polymarket这类平台询问‘一年后的CPI会是多少’可能比这些调查更能提供有效信号。这将会推动我们转向替代数据——甚至用Truflation都比看CPI强。

So I think prediction markets are the answer. So I think poly markets of the world where they're like, what is the CPI a year from now might be better signal than using these surveys. I mean, I think that's it's going to push us towards alternative data. Like even using Truflation is better than looking at CPI.

让我们简单聊聊这个。说实话，我对体育博彩中预测市场的爆发式增长感到惊讶。这很合理，对吧？你不是在和庄家对赌，也不是在和玩家对赌，赔率对你更有利。操作也更简单。

Let's talk about this for a second. So I am surprised at the explosion, let's say, prediction markets in sports betting. It makes sense, right? You're not betting against a house, you're not betting against a peer, The odds are a little bit better in your favor. It's easier.

对吧？而且存在这些深度流动性池。透明度更高。原因显而易见。但我也很惊讶，为什么在商业和金融领域没有看到更多这类预测市场的兴起。

Right? And there's these deep liquidity pools. There's more transparency. Very clear to see why that is. But I'm also surprised that we have not seen more uptick of these prediction markets in kind of business and finance.

举个例子，你提到CPI类通胀预期，但就像我常说的特斯拉交付量。人们会因预期交付量超预期而买入股票，结果交付量达标后股价反而下跌。预测市场能把这个数据点单独剥离出来。现在你可以纯粹就这一个因素进行投机，但金融界对此的接受度确实不高。

For example, you're talking about CPI type inflation expectations, but also just things like I always talk about like the Tesla delivery number. People will go buy the stock with the view that they're going to beat on deliveries, but they'll beat on deliveries and stock will go down. Yeah. The prediction market isolates the data point. And so now you can just simply speculate on that one thing, but we haven't really seen as big of an uptick in the finance community.

为什么

Why do

你认为会这样？情况即将改变，因为直到最近Kalshi还是美国机构能透明交易的唯一市场，毕竟Polymarket之前是离岸的。今年Polymarket也进入了美国市场。它将与代币化股票世界同步发展。随着股票代币化，你描述的现象就是我所说的股票因子化——代币化后我们将开始拆分股票因子。

you think that is? It's going to start changing because I think up until recently, Kalshi was the only market US institutions could trade with transparency because Polymarket was offshore. So, like, this is the year where Polymarket is now also available in The US. It'll move in sync with the tokenized stock world. So as we tokenize equities, and what you're describing is what I call factorization of a stock, we're going to start factoring stocks once they're tokenized.

以特斯拉为例，你可以用两种方式拆分：一种是把特斯拉股票解构成AAA级债券加上股权峰值分层（类似2026年收益），每年做远期收益拆分，剩余部分作为债券——这就是国债TIGRS和STRIPS的创造方式。另一种拆分方式是特斯拉中国销量、Model X销量等，结合预测市场能提供完全的透明度，还能看到押注金额。对发行方来说也获得了透明度。

Because for instance, if you take Tesla, you can do two ways to factor it. One is Tesla as a stock can be deconstructed into a triple a bond and then an equity peak tranche, which is like earnings for 2026, and you do one year forwards for every earnings, and the rest is a bond. That's how Tigers and Strips were created with treasuries. But the other factoring of of a stock you can do is Tesla sales in China, Tesla Model x sales, and with combining it with prediction markets provides all the transparency you have, plus you can see the dollar amount bet. And for the issuer, they have transparency.

现在市场对交付量或收益的预测数据就在这里，企业现在可以超预期或不及预期。所以我认为随着股票代币化，这将释放巨大潜力。

This is what the market's now predicting for deliveries or earnings, and they can now surprise or beat expectations. So I think it's a huge unlock coming as we tokenize stocks.

我们一直在讨论的一个重点就是监管机构将如何适应这种情况。比如说，如果你在特斯拉工作，并且知道公司将超出交付预期，这时你去购买股票就是违法的。你这是在利用未公开的重要信息进行交易，这很不好。

One of the things that we've been talking a lot about is how the regulatory bodies will adapt to this. So for example, it would be illegal if you worked at Tesla and you knew that you were going to beat the delivery number. You went and bought the stock, right? You're trading on material non public information. That's not good.

历史上早有先例禁止这种行为。但如果突然之间你说：等等，我是一家生产挡风玻璃的公司员工，通过数据研究发现，每次我们看到特斯拉挡风玻璃产量激增时，三个月后交付量就会上升。这时我不去买股票，而是去预测市场押注交付量会上升。这就开始进入一个奇怪的领域了——作为挡风玻璃制造商员工，你会有经济动机去'告诉'市场你知道的信息。

Very long history and precedent for not doing that. But if all of a sudden now you say, wait a second, I am somebody who works at the company that manufactures the windshields, and I have been able to do some data research, and I know that our private company, every time that we see spikes in manufacturing of windshields for Tesla, there happens to be three months later a rise in the number of deliveries. I'm going to go not buy the stock, instead I'm going to go into the prediction market, and I'm going to bet they're going to be done deliveries. Again, like you start getting in this weird world, right? Where you are financially incentivized, if you're the person who works at that windshield manufacturer, to quote unquote tell the world what you know, by expressing it in the market.

这种行为的边界在哪里？监管机构该如何划定红线？

Where does that end? Like where do the regulators put the box?

是啊，这让很多界限变得模糊。就像预测市场里有人赌WNBA比赛中谁会扔出绿色滤光片那样的笑话。

Yeah, well it's blurring a lot of things. You know, it's like the joke, like, you know, with the prediction markets, they were having a bet of, like, which in WNBA game is someone gonna throw, you know, a program. Green filter. Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

然后下注的人就真往场上扔了个按摩棒

Then the person who put the bet on would just throw a dildo on

。

the court.

你说得对。但流动性市场体量庞大，个人难以影响结果。但人们能否通过作弊手段领先？这是个好问题。要知道，如今这个定义本身就有些模糊——如果某公司使用另类数据，发现一个准确率90%的先导数据点，这算内幕交易还是

So you're right. But then liquid markets are big, so people can't influence outcomes. But then can people cheat have a cheat code to get ahead of that? That's a great question. You know, today, like, that definitionally is a little blurry anyways because, like, if some company is doing alternative data and then they find a precursor data point that's like 90% correct, is that insider trading or is that just

只是优秀分析，

like good analysis,

对吧？所以SEC采用马赛克理论来判定是否构成内幕交易。我认为在预测市场中，如果采用区块链技术，监控不会成为问题——他们可以直接追踪钱包。如果有人下重注且不参与其他类型投注，这个异常赌注就会...你懂我意思吗？法务上很容易判定是否涉及内幕交易。

right? So that's why the SEC uses the mosaic theory to determine if it's insider trading or not. I think surveillance won't be a problem, in prediction markets if they use the blockchain because then they can just track the wallets. And if someone made a big bet and they don't do other kinds of bets and their bet stands out strange or, you know what mean? Like, it it would be easy to actually forensically determine if it's an insider.

嗯。嗯。

Mhmm. Mhmm.

所以在代币化区块链的世界里，特别是采用白名单地址交易时，内幕交易会更容易被抓到。

So I think in in a tokenized blockchain based world, especially with whitelisted addresses trading, it'll be easier to catch insider trading.

你提到过这个观点：那些突破进入主流的加密公司或产品往往优于传统竞争对手。Polymarket、Tether，还有Coinbase等公司都符合这个模式。

You've mentioned, this idea that the crypto companies or products that break out into the mainstream tend to be better than their analog slash legacy competitors. So Polymarket, Tether, many companies that I think are kind of along this. Yeah, Coinbase.

Coinbase。Truflation。

Coinbase. Truflation.

Truflation是另一个例子。简单解释一下这个理论是什么。

Truflation is another one. Like talk through kind of what this theory is.

嗯，是的。我只是在做一个观察，加密货币充满了实验性。但偶尔会有少数公司脱颖而出进入主流，并最终成为更优秀的企业。稳定币就是一个例子。代币化的美元目前比美元本身功能更优。

Well, yeah. I was just making an observation, which is, crypto is full of experimentation. But then once in a while, a handful of these companies break out into the mainstream and they've turned out to be great better businesses. Stablecoin is an example. A tokenized dollar functions better than the US dollar right now.

以Tether为例，该公司目前仅有150名在职超过12个月的员工（实际可能更多）。据媒体报道，他们当前估值5000亿美元，相当于每位资深员工创造33亿美元价值，年盈利200亿美元，这使他们成为全球十大最盈利银行之一。5000亿美元的估值仅次于摩根大通（8690亿美元），而摩根大通拥有31.3万名员工。

Exhibit A on companies is Tether because Tether today has only 150 employees that have been there more than twelve months. I think they might have more, you know, more than that now. But they're valued currently, according to the media, 500,000,000,000, dollars 3,300,000,000.0 per tenured employee, and they earned $20,000,000,000, which would make them a top 10 most profitable bank. At $500,000,000,000, they're second only to JPMorgan, which is valued at 869,000,000,000. JPMorgan has 313,000 employees.

摩根大通每位员工创造280万美元价值，Tether则是33亿美元。他们比全球任何银行都赚钱，估值是高盛的两倍——这是真正的突破。预测市场Polymarket的功能远超芝加哥商品交易所，但真正的突破点是2024年大选预测。

Okay. So JPMorgan's valued at 2,800,000.0 per employee. Tether's valued at 3,300,000,000.0, and they're making more money than every bank in the world and twice as valuable as Goldman. That's a breakout. Polymarket as a prediction market functions far better than the CME, but the real breakout was the twenty twenty four election.

Polymarket预测市场准确预测了50个州的结果。内特·西尔弗的模型、《纽约时报》等所有模型都相去甚远，只有Polymarket全数命中。正如我们提到的，Truflation——我观察过它与收益率、利差甚至曲线的相关性——能更好预测市场反应。这个基于区块链的通胀工具比CPI更有效。

The prediction market for polymarket called 50 of 50 states correct. Nate Silver's model, New York Times, none of these models were even close. Only polymarket called election in 50 of 50 states. And as we mentioned, truflation, to me, and I've watched its correlation to yields and spreads and even the curve, it's a better predictor of how markets are reacting. So TruFlation, which is a blockchain based inflation tool, works better than CPI.

而且Truflation每天都会更新数据。

And TruFlation comes out every day.

是的。在我看来，Truflation的价值不在于最终那个容易比较的数字，而在于其理念。CPI是静态的滞后数据，很多时候会采用诸如打电话询问'你的房子能租多少钱'这种荒诞的统计方式。

Yeah. The TruFlation thing, I think, is to me, not so much like the end number that's easy to kind of compare, but it's just the philosophy. CPI is a backwards looking static data. A lot of times, like we're going call you and ask you how much you could rent your house for kind of crazy stuff. Yeah.

如果你从零开始设计，就会意识到我们绝对不能那样做。而Truflation采用更基础的方法论，主张直接通过Right平台查看房屋租赁价格。每年获取数百万个实时数据点，比如超市数据。为什么不派人实地考察超市？为什么不直接查看线上价格呢？

If you're designing from scratch, be like, well, we definitely can't do it that way. Whereas Truflation kind of more first principles approach says, why don't we just look at what houses rented for by looking on the Right. And get a real time feed of millions of data points per year and, you know, grocery stores. Why don't we send people physically into the grocery store? Why don't we just look at the prices online?

或者寻找其他类似的数据源。这确实让人感觉是自动化大趋势的一部分，也是社会的实时化潮流。但奇怪的是，股市出现了分化——世界上最顶尖的对冲基金掌握着信息优势对吧？他们不断监测，拍摄储油罐、沃尔玛停车场等各种疯狂的数据。

Or, you know, find other data feeds and things like this. And so it does feel like it's part of this big automation trend a real time trend in society. But in a weird way, there's like a bifurcation in the stock market. Some of the greatest hedge funds in the world, they have access information, right? They constantly are seeking, they're taking pictures of the oil tanks or, you know, Walmart parking lots or whatever crazy thing they're all doing.

但想想散户投资者。他们连电子表格都没有，全凭市场情绪追涨杀跌。可对比这两类群体，实际上散户的业绩跑赢了很多对冲基金。你如何看待这两类投资者之间的差异？

But think of retail investors. And retail investors, they don't have a spreadsheet. Like they're just momentum vibes and buying the dip. And if you look at those two groups, actually retail investors have been outperforming, many of the hedge funds. How do you kind of settle that, you know, that difference between these two groups?

我有两个理论假设，不确定哪个正确。第一，如果房间里全是天才，那么普通人就是天才——或者说你最多只能达到平均水平。当所有对冲基金都花重金购买相同供应商的另类数据时，他们得出的结论会趋同，最终都只能获得平均收益，毫无优势可言。第二，阿尔法收益是有限资源。过去对冲基金从散户身上获取阿尔法，这就是1980年代至2000年代中期对冲基金辉煌的原因。

I have two possible theories, and I don't know which one is correct, okay? The first theory I would point out is that if you have a room of geniuses, then the average person's a genius, Or the best you can do is to be average. So if every hedge fund employs expensive tools, buys alternative data, but from the same vendors, they're all going to have the same conclusion because they all were geniuses and get an average result, which means there's no edge. The second explanation is that alpha is a finite source, And in the past, hedge funds took alpha from retail. And that's why hedge funds did so well from the 1980s through the mid 2000s.

但现在对冲基金在互相掠夺阿尔法收益，导致最终净结果趋于平均。究其原因就是他们采用相同的时间框架。而散户的操作更像永久资本——他们折现未来。我们很多量化客户的时间跨度最多六周，谁能真正预测六个月后的信号与噪声？

But now the hedge funds are stealing alpha from each other, so the net result is average results. And the reason they're stealing alpha from each other is that they all employ the same timeframe. Retail actually operates more like permanent capital, right? They're discounting the future. A lot of our quant based clients, six weeks is the outer limit of their time horizon, but how can anyone really decipher signal from noise six months forward?

这确实很难。就像比特币信仰者会以十年为维度思考，坦然承受波动——而这种波动性是对冲基金无法忍受的。

It's really difficult. Like, that's why anyone who's a Bitcoiner like, thinks decades ahead, and then they just ride through the volatility. That volatility is not what hedge funds can endure.

没错。想想很有意思，他们本质上是在互相PVP（玩家对战），这是场相对业绩竞赛。就像霍华德·马克斯说的：别追求当年度最佳投资者，因为这意味着你承担了可能沦为最差的风险。你只需要保持中上水平就够了，对吧？

Yeah. It's fascinating when you think about, they're basically like PVP against each other, and it's a relative performance game. And so everyone actually gets into this world of like, I think it's Howard Marks, like, don't want to be the top investor in a year because you took so much risk. You could have been the bottom. You kind just want to be like above average, right?

就这样持续三十年，你终将成为高手。而散户们，我不确定他们是否在意波动性，也不清楚他们是否关心回撤，我认为他们根本不在乎相关性或投资组合构建，他们只追求绝对收益和超额回报。奇怪的是，这某种程度上正是投资的本质，就是那个'而'

Just do that over and over again for thirty years and then then you'll end up being good. Whereas retail folks, I don't know if they care about volatility, I don't know if they care about drawdowns, I don't think they care about correlations or portfolio construction, it's just pure outperformance and alpha generation. And in a weird way, like that's kind of what investing was, is the And

这正是许多早期对冲基金的核心理念。懂我意思吗？他们以不同视角看待世界，敢于承担巨大风险。比如迈克尔·贝瑞在最初做空次贷时，本质上就是个散户投资者。

that's what a lot the original hedge funds were. Know what I mean? They saw the world differently. They took big risks. I mean, Michael Burry is arguably in his early days was a retail investor when he made the big short.

这些都是需要长期坚持的大周期押注，明白吗？

I mean, all these were big, long cycle bets, you know?

这很有意思。黄金呢？黄金正处于历史性上涨中。你觉得这是真实行情还是人为操纵？

That's pretty interesting. What about gold? Gold's been on this historic run. Do you think it's real? Do you think it's manipulated?

你认为

Do you think

涨势能持续吗？黄金上涨确实有很多原因。但FundStrip不涉足大宗商品领域。我有点后悔没推荐黄金，这波行情实在太猛了。因为你知道，我总希望能帮客户抓住上涨趋势。

it can continue? I mean, there's a lot of reasons gold probably is going up. And at FundStrip, we don't do commodities. I kind of regret not recommending gold because it's been so great. I mean, because, know, like generally, I like to be helping our clients be involved with things that are going up.

所以我觉得黄金这波行情就像

So I think gold's move is like

好策略。对，没错。

A good strategy. Yeah, exactly.

我不想对抗它，而且

I don't want to fight it and like

你从事什么业务？我帮客户提升投资组合价值。是的。

What kind of business do you have? I help our clients' portfolios go up. Yeah.

黄金表现一直很惊人。我认为最突出的是，仅凭技术面就能解释黄金的走势。比如昨天我和技术分析师马克·牛顿讨论，他说黄金形成了杯柄形态，突破点在七月。按测算目标位应该就是现在这个价位。不过可以说价格领先于基本面。

So gold's been amazing. I think what's really stood out is that you can explain gold's move by just pure technicals. Like, I was talking to our technician, Mark Newton, yesterday, and he says that gold had a cup and handle pattern that the breakout was July. And so the measured move should have taken it up to where it is now. But let's say price leads fundamentals.

我认为七月也是稳定币行业开始大量增发的时点。如你所知，既有黄金稳定币也有美元稳定币，但很多美元稳定币发行方都存在超额抵押。所以稳定币行业印了大量美元，它们超额抵押，我认为他们也在大量购入黄金。有意思。我觉得稳定币行业已成为黄金的最新买家。

I think that July is also the time that the stablecoin industry started printing a lot more creations. And as you know, there's been gold stablecoins and dollar based stablecoins, but a lot of the dollar based stablecoin issuers are over collateralized. So I think the stablecoin industry has been printing a lot of dollars, they're over collateralized, and I think they've been buying a lot of gold. Interesting. I think that the stablecoin industry has been the newest bid for gold.

甚至比中国央行还厉害？是的，因为他们早已入场。

More so than even like a China central bank? Yeah, because they've already been present.

各国央行入场已有时日，但现在除了散户之外还有新买家在购入黄金。我认为这可能就是原因，因为现在已经有七八种黄金稳定币，再加上大型稳定币发行商。这些可能就是黄金的买盘力量。但这是否意味着黄金上涨空间无限？我不知道。

The central banks have been present for some time, but there's somebody new buying gold on top of the retail buying gold. And I think that would be my guess because, you know, like I've, now there's like seven or eight gold stable coins plus, you know, there's big stable coin issuers. And so that could be the bid to gold. Now, does that mean gold is unlimited on the upside? I don't know.

我是说，我没有研究过这个，我不清楚。但我认为这对比特币和以太坊非常利好。为什么呢？因为黄金总是先行动，然后比特币跟上。所以我认为黄金的网络价值已经大幅上涨。假设黄金稳定在5000美元。

I mean, I'm not studying it, I don't know. But I think it's very bullish for Bitcoin and Ethereum because Why? Well, gold is moves first, and then Bitcoin catches up. So I think that there is going to be the network value of gold just went up by a lot. And so let's say gold settles at 5,000.

这意味着比特币的公允价值，你知道，如果匹配黄金的网络价值，可能在106美元到200万美元之间。所以我认为这实际上有助于比特币未来的终极价格。

That puts fair value of Bitcoin, you know, like $1.06 to 2,000,000 if it matches gold's network value. So I think it's actually helping Bitcoin's future terminal price.

所以你认为如果黄金稳定在5000美元，你用黄金市值除以比特币数量，就能得到每枚160万到200万美元的价格？我们大概需要多久才能达到这个水平？

So you think that if gold settles at 5,000 Bitcoin, you you take the gold market cap divided by the number of Bitcoin, then you get 1.6 to $2,000,000 per coin. What's the timeframe for us to get there?

嗯，我是说，我觉得比特币可能在五年内实现这个目标。五年吧。对。我觉得比特币不会被黄金限制住。

Well, I mean, I can see that in five years for Bitcoin. I think Five years. Yeah. Think yeah. Bitcoin think Bitcoin Bitcoin doesn't get capped by gold.

实际上它会被黄金带动上涨。

It actually gets pulled up by gold.

嗯。

Mhmm.

然后因为它正在扩大货币基础。对吧？

And then Because it's growing the monetary base. Right?

嗯，嗯。今年黄金上涨了约60%。比特币则每日波动在18%到20%之间。你认为到2025年12月31日时，回顾起来比特币是否有可能在2025年超越黄金的表现，尽管目前黄金领先优势很大？

Mhmm. Mhmm. And then this year, gold's up 60 ish percent. Bitcoin's up 18 to 20% depending on the day. Do you think that on 12/31/2025, we'll actually look back and could Bitcoin have outperformed gold in 2025, even though it has such a big lead right now?

是的。我是说，我们还有很长时间。我们有十周时间。你知道比特币每年有十天会有大动作。那么比特币的最佳表现期是否在第四季度？

Yeah. I mean, we have a lot of time. We have We have ten weeks. As you know, Bitcoin makes its move in ten days a year. So are Bitcoin's best days in the fourth quarter?

可能是因为我们有催化剂，美联储的宽松政策。政府停摆带来的避险情绪。每次有关于中国的头条新闻时，中美紧张关系看起来都会让比特币遭受重击，对吧？因为涉及资金流动和去杠杆化。但这些因素会消失的。

Probably because we have catalysts, the Fed's easing. We have a shutdown that's been risk off. We have China US tensions that look, every time there's a headline on China, like Bitcoin takes a gut punch, right? Because it is money flows and deleveraging. So that goes away.

季节性因素也利好股市上涨，股市上涨有助于比特币。所以在我看来，比特币在第四季度表现强劲的概率非常高，而这些因素并不都利好黄金。所以我不会排除比特币年底前涨到20万美元的可能性。

We have seasonality that favors stocks moving up, stocks moving helps Bitcoin. So to me, the chances of Bitcoin having a huge fourth quarter are really high and not all of these would be tailwinds for gold. So I wouldn't count, I still think it's possible for Bitcoin to hit 200,000 by the end of the year.

那四年周期呢？你认为这个规律仍然成立，还是说ETF的机构参与已经打破了这个周期？

And what about the four year cycle? Do you think that that holds or do you think that that was something that was broken by the institutional participation in the ETFs?

我接触的大多数加密货币从业者都预期四年周期。他们坚信比特币可能会在明年初见顶。但你知道当某种观点被过分坚信时，往往不太可能是真的。所以要么比特币已经见顶，要么我们面临更长的周期。我更倾向于认为这是个更长的周期。

Well, most of the crypto people I speak to expect a four year cycle. And they're adamant, you know, that maybe Bitcoin peaks early next year. But as you know, when something is so strongly held, it's very unlikely to be true. So either Bitcoin's already peaked or we have a longer cycle. I'm more in the camp that it's a longer cycle.

但未来仍可能出现50%以上的跌幅，或者这种周期已经被打破，你会...得到某种结果

But there would still be 50 plus percent drawdowns in the future or there's a kind of cycle is broken and you Yeah, get something

我确信会出现50%的回撤，因为股市更频繁地出现25%的回撤。尽管人们意识到过去六年股市取得了很大进展，但我们经历了异常多的25%跌幅。嗯。明年标普指数很可能再跌20%。所以如果标普跳水20%，比特币可能会跌40%。

I think I'm sure there'll be 50% drawdowns because the stock market has more frequent 25% drawdowns. I mean, that's when, even though people realize, I mean, the stock market has made a lot of progress last six years, We've had an unusually large number of 25% drawdowns. Mhmm. And we probably have another S and P decline of 20% next year. So if the S and P jump is down 20, you know, Bitcoin could be down 40.

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他们并不真正理解比特币和加密货币。这些人永远在说：'你们不懂，大崩盘要来了''你们不知道真正的市场低迷是什么'等等。而我总在想：这些人难道没意识到比特币持有者在四年内经历了两次超过80%的暴跌吗？

They don't really get the Bitcoin and crypto thing. They have forever been saying, you guys don't understand. There's a big crash coming there. You don't know what a real market downturn is, whatever. And I always just think, I'm like, do these people realize that the people holding Bitcoin have seen two drawdowns of over 80% in four years?

这在股市从未发生过。对吧？所以从某种疯狂的角度说，加密投资者其实比股票投资者对市场波动准备得更充分。但如果你没经历过那种痛苦，就会觉得那根本不存在似的。

That's never happened in the stock market. Yeah. Right? And so like in this crazy way, actually the crypto people are more prepared for market volatility than the stock people. But it's like if you haven't, like, gone through the pain, you just don't think that exists or something.

而且股票投资者不愿承认一个事实：能承受加密货币所有波动的人，某种程度上必须是个疯子。

And like, stock people don't acknowledge the fact that you kind of have to be insane to hold to all the volatility in crypto.

是的。实际上我注意到——虽然不是所有人——但有些加密领域的熟练交易员，其中一部分人也是出色的股票交易员。很有趣。他们对市场情绪的把控如此出色，以至于在股票上也游刃有余。当然不是所有加密交易员都这样，毕竟很多加密交易者只是，你知道的，投机客。

Yeah. And actually what I've noticed, and it's not true of every, but I've met some crypto skilled traders and a percentage of them are exceptional equity traders. Interesting. They've become so good at the EQ of, like, market moves that they're great at stocks. Not not every crypto trader because a lot of crypto traders are just, you know, degens.

但是，但是，所以它确实有共通之处。我觉得，我觉得股票投资做得好不是在哈佛能学到的技能。有些人就是天赋异禀

But but so I it it really does cross over. I I think people I think stock being good at stock investing is not a skill that's learned at Harvard. Some people are just really good

在这方面。对我来说，我一直认为加密货币市场更像是一个纯粹的、自由的市场宏观体系，正如它最初设计的那样。没有营业时间限制，没有熔断机制，你知道，所有这些算法交易都较少，就像我认为市场过去运作的方式一样。

at it. Well, to me, I've always thought the crypto market is much more of a like a pure free market kind of macro thing as to how it was originally designed. There's no hours of operations, there's no circuit breakers, you know, all these less algorithmic trading, you know, it's just like very, very much how markets, I think, used to operate.

场外交易。场外交易市场。

Over the counter. Over the counter market.

而如今的股票市场并非如此。所以你必须在纯粹的市场中掌握这种技能。这能让你在这个某种程度上被操纵的游戏里表现得更好。

And today the stock market is not that. And so you kind of have to like pick up the skill, in a pure market. And then that makes you better at the somewhat manipulated game.

是的。所以我发现，确实有些加密货币玩家甚至很擅长把握市场时机，你知道，他们总能在正确的时间离场。嗯。

Yeah. So I've, I've found some really, yeah, some crypto guys are really even good at timing the market, you know, they've been getting out at the right time. It's Mhmm.

他们确实很擅长识别银行挤兑。所以每个在硅谷银行存钱的加密货币玩家肯定都把资金撤出来了。这次股票反弹，你称之为最不受欢迎的反弹。最近因特朗普推文引发的抛售，你称之为皮肉伤。

Well, they're definitely good at recognizing the bank runs. So every single crypto person who had money in Silicon Valley Bank, they got it out for sure. Yeah. This stock rally, you've called it the most hated rally. The recent sell off because of Trump's tweet, called a flesh wound.

你超级看涨。我也是，所以我可能有偏见。但为什么你觉得这次反弹如此不受欢迎？为什么这些人希望市场下跌？

You're like uber bullish. I am as well, so I'm biased. But why do you think it's so hated? Why? Like, why do these people want the market to go down?

他们为什么希望美国经济崩溃？

Why do they want The US economy to tank?

是的。我的意思是，我可以从经验上证明这是最不受欢迎的。衡量大型投资者情绪的最佳指标之一是AAII净多头指数（多头减去空头），因为这个指数已经运行了四十年。今年平均值为负11.7，所以今年每周的数据...在过去四十年里，只有其他三次出现过负11.7或更低的情况，分别是1990年、2008年2月和2022年。

Yeah. I mean, I can empirically show it's the most hated. One of the best measures of cent of large investor sentiment is the AAII net bulls index, bulls less bears, because it's been run for forty years. This year, it's averaged minus 11.7, so every week, the weeks through this year. There's only three other times in the last forty years it's registered negative 11.7, 1990 or more.

1990年、2008年2月和2022年。这些都是熊市年份。所以情绪指标显示我们仿佛处于熊市，但今年迄今市场却上涨了15%。为什么说这是最不受欢迎的？我们的研究表明这与政治分歧有关。

1990, 02/2008, and 2022. All were bear market years. So sentiment reads as if we're in a bear market and the market's up 15% year to date. Why is it the most hated? I think we show this in our research that it's based on political divide.

这个国家共和党与民主党支持者各占一半。但在股票市场领域——皮尤研究中心有相关数据——57%的职业基金经理是民主党人，66%的对冲基金从业者是民主党人，约69%的风险投资基金从业者也是民主党人。有趣的是，风险资本界没有投票给特朗普。他们认为特朗普的政策会导致经济不稳定。

So the country is fiftyfifty Republican Democratic, But in the stock market world, and there's Pew Research, data on this, 57% of professional money managers are Democratic. 66% of hedge funds are democratic and something like 69% of venture capital funds are democratic. Interesting. So the risk capital world didn't vote for Trump. So they view his policies as that of someone who is destabilizing to the economy.

债券市场情况则相反。80%的信贷经理是共和党人。这就是为什么今年债券市场表现平稳——高收益债利差稳定，信贷利差稳定，但股票市场却波动剧烈。

In the bond market, it flips. 80% of credit managers are Republican. So that's why this year the bond market hasn't been high yield spreads have been stable, credit spreads have been stable, but the stock market's been volatile.

这个观点很有意思。通常人们笼统地认为共和党代表商业和投资者利益，他们应该会因为政策而全力冒险。但你的论证恰恰相反——多数对冲基金经理和风险投资家其实是民主党人，他们采取非常防御的姿态，实际上对潜在前景持负面看法。

I mean, it's fascinating to think about, you know, think the generalization is like the Republicans or the business and the investors and, you know, stuff like that. And they're the ones who are kind of going full risk on because of these policies. But you're actually making the argument is no way. Majority of hedge fund managers and venture capitalists are Democrats and they are just very defensive. They're actually negative on the potential outlook.

是啊。所以诡异的是，政治立场正在某种程度上影响人们客观看待市场的能力。

Yeah. And so in a weird way, politics kind of is breaking some people's brains in terms of objectively looking at the market.

是的。你或许能在今年的经济评论中看到这一点。有多少经济学家说过，关税将导致经济衰退或引发通胀飙升？这实际上是非常主观的论点，因为关税就是一种税收。而如果我们将其视为税收，税收本身并不会引发通胀。

Yes. And you can see it in maybe in the economic commentary this year. How many economists have said, oh, tariffs are going to cause a recession or tariffs are going cause an inflation surge? That is actually a very subjective argument because tariffs are a tax. And if we treat it as a tax, taxes are not inflationary.

所以我们绝不会说关税具有通胀性，但那些将其描绘成通胀因素的经济学家，我认为他们是持特定观点才得出通胀结论的。换句话说，这种说法存在某种偏见。

So we'd never say it's inflationary, but the economists who are portraying it as inflation are, I think it's, they're taking a specific view that makes it an inflation argument. So in other words, there's some sort of bias in that statement.

早在三四月份时，我就大声疾呼过关税不会引发通胀。几周后我才发现，那些我认识的记者们没人愿意直接问我，而是去问我们办公室的同事：他真的相信这些吗？他是不是疯了？

Back in March and April, I was very loud about the fact that tariffs were not going to be inflationary. And I found out weeks later that reporters, people that I knew, no one wanted to ask me directly. So they're asking people who work here in our office, does he actually believe this stuff? Is he, you know, is he crazy? Right.

诸如此类。而我只是在看数据，明白吗？我把观点摆在那里。现在回想起来，我意识到这是从政治角度进行的评估。当时有人写了篇文章，用了‘MAGA走狗’之类的字眼。

Or whatever. And I was like, I'm just looking at data, right? Like, you know, I laid it out there or whatever. And now in hindsight, I realize that it was the political viewpoint of evaluating it. And there was an article that was written and somebody wrote, you know, MAGA shill or whatever the terminology was.

而我心想，我明明是最独立的好吗？我一直在强调独立性，但只要你认为关税政策是好的，就立刻被划入政治阵营。他们对人们配置资本方式的看法真是耐人寻味。

And I was like, I'm like the most independent, you know I mean? I've like constantly said about independence, whatever, but it was just like, if you believe that the tariff policy was good, you immediately got put in a political bucket. It's like kind of fascinating to them thinking about people allocate their capital.

没错。这实际上会腐蚀量化系统的判断，因为量化系统会抓取公开评论。当它们看到通胀字眼时，这些被训练的机器就会认为具有通胀性，并据此解读所有信息——这完全污染了整个分析视角。

Yeah. And it actually creates brain rot in the quant systems because quant systems pull off published commentary. So they see inflation. So the machines are trained to think it's inflationary it's And they interpret everything. So it's polluting the whole lens.

我认为这已经影响了风险经理们——特别是股票风险经理——进行风险管理的方式。

And I think it's affected how risk managers, equity risk managers did risk.

是的，这很吸引人。除了推出这个轰动一时的"祖母级"ETF之外，你们还做了BMNR项目。我记得你说过要收购5%的以太坊供应量。没错。

Yeah. It's fascinating. Another thing that you've done other than have this blowout granny shots ETF is BMNR. I think you said that you were going to buy 5% of the ether supply. Yes.

我想你们已经快达到了吧？差不多完成了？

I think you're there. Right? Almost.

对，那将是600万枚以太坊。好的。Bitmine周一宣布我们已持有323万枚以太坊。

Yeah. So there's that would be 6,000,000 Ethereum. Okay. Bitmine on Monday announced that we're at 3,230,000.00 Ethereum.

所以已经完成150%的目标了

So 150% of the way

是的，占以太坊总供应量的2.7%。

there. Yeah. 2.7% of the Ethereum supply.

好的。这家公司的业务目的是什么？简单介绍一下吧。

Okay. What is the purpose of the business? Just tell us a little bit about it.

Bitmine的核心战略是以太坊作为储备资产。虽然仍保留小规模比特币挖矿作为运营业务，但现在主要储备资产是以太坊。增持以太坊的意义在于：作为智能合约平台，以太坊的质押机制让大持有者能享受幂律效应——既能成为生态中的良性实体推动DeFi发展，又能随着支付通道在以太坊上搭建而引导这一进程。我们正与以太坊基金会合作。目前Bitmine持有的323万枚以太坊使其成为全球最大持有方，超过了以太坊基金会和其他任何单一持有者。

Well, Bitmine is an Ethereum primary strategy is an Ethereum as the treasury asset. It still has a small Bitcoin mining business as its operating business, but now its primary treasury asset is Ethereum. And the reason it makes sense to grow the Ethereum holdings is that Ethereum as a smart contract platform with staking means that large holders of Ethereum can benefit from the power law dynamics, meaning, you can have you can be a benevolent entity in the community helping see DeFi and also as payment rails get built on Ethereum, help guide, that process. And so we're working with the Ethereum Foundation. Today, Bitmines two point 3,230,000.00 Ethereum tokens makes it the largest holder of Ethereum in the world, more than the Ethereum Foundation, more than other any other single holder.

当我们开始进行原生质押时，大约140亿价值的ETH能产生3%的收益，这相当于近5亿美元的税前收入。这将使比特币成为美国盈利前800强的企业之一，本质上相当于罗素1000指数成分股。对机构投资者而言，他们大量配置微策略公司股票，因为这是他们接触比特币的途径。而我们一直在撰文指出，以太坊很可能正处于类似1971年华尔街经历的超级周期中。

When we begin our staking, native staking, that's about a 3% yield on roughly 14,000,000,000 worth of ETH, and that's nearly 500,000,000 of pretax income. That would make Bitcoin one of the 800 most profitable companies in America. So it's basically going be a Russell one thousand company. And for institutional investors, they've put a big allocation into micro strategy because that is the way that they get exposure to Bitcoin. But Ethereum, we've been writing about, is probably in a super cycle similar to what happened to Wall Street in 1971.

因为在1971年，美国退出了金本位制。美元实际上变成了完全合成货币。华尔街介入确保美元保持储备货币地位，于是他们建立了期货、存单、货币市场等工具，并取得了成功——十年内，尽管美元仅占GDP的27%，却占据了央行储备的53%和金融市场报价的80%。日元没能胜出，

Because in 1971, The US withdrew from the gold standard. So the dollar became actually synthetic, completely synthetic. So Wall Street stepped in to make sure the dollar stayed the reserve currency. So they built futures, CDs, money markets, and it succeeded because within ten years, even though the dollar was only 27% of GDP, it became 53% of central bank reserves and 80% of all financial market quotes. So the yen didn't win.

德国马克和法国法郎也未能胜出。到2025年，我们将实现远超美元的代币化。稳定币作为突破性产品，本质是代币化的美元。但如你所知，拉里·芬克、Robinhood等希望将所有资产区块链代币化，他们将在中立公链上构建——目前70%的相关建设正发生在以太坊上。因此以太坊正在经历1971年式的历史时刻，华尔街正在区块链上重建一切，而我们相信这个区块链就是以太坊。

The Deutsche Mark didn't win with the French franc. In 2025, we're tokenizing more than just the dollar. The stablecoin is the breakout product, which is a tokenized dollar. But as you know, Larry Fink, Robinhood, they want to tokenize everything on the blockchain, and they're going to build it on a neutral public chain, which is right now, 70% of that is happening on Ethereum. So Ethereum is experiencing that same 1971 moment where Wall Street's rebuilding everything onto a blockchain, which we think it'll be Ethereum.

以太坊有望恢复其与比特币的2021年价格比率高点，这意味着每个以太币可能达到21,000美元左右。因此我认为这是被低估的资产。通过持续增持和质押，我们将受益于幂律效应。目前进展顺利——比特大陆如今是美国交易量第三十大的股票，日交易额达21亿美元。

Ethereum could recover its Bitcoin Ethereum ratios twenty twenty one highs, that would put Ethereum at around 21,000 per token. So it's, I think, an undervalued asset. And by acquiring more and staking it, we benefit from the power law. And so it's been successful so far. Bitmain is the thirtieth most traded stock in America today, trading $2,100,000,000 a day.

我认为这得益于我们清晰的沟通策略。我们每月发布主席信，阐述关于以太坊处于超级周期的理论，以及比特大陆持续增持质押以太坊的原因。

And it benefits from, I think, our clear communication. We publish a monthly monthly chairman's message that explains our thesis around why Ethereum is in a super cycle and why Bitmain is continuing to acquire and stake its Ethereum.

现在我要扮演反对者角色，因为很多听众中，以太坊支持者会认为你是天才、完全赞同你的观点。他们会问：为什么只说到21,000美元？我本来想说10万美元呢！

Now, I'm gonna play devil's advocate for you because a lot of people are going to listen to this and the people who like Ethereum, he's a genius. I agree with everything he said. Why do you only say 21,000? I was going to a 100. Right?

或者随便什么夸张数字。而不喜欢以太坊的人主要分两类：只认比特币的极端派，以及支持Solana、Avalanche等其他智能合约平台的人——他们本质上相信智能合约概念，只是押注了不同的赛马。对于那些声称所有山寨币都没价值的比特币极端派，你如何论证他们的错误？

Or whatever crazy number. I think the people who don't like Ethereum fall in $2. There's the Bitcoiners who don't like anything other than Bitcoin, and then there will be the like Solana or Avalanche or whoever like, you know, they believe in kind of this smart contract thing, but it's just I have a different favorite horse. Right? To the Bitcoiners who say all of the altcoins are not valuable, how do you kind of talk through with them why they're wrong?

你知道，我自己就是个比特币信徒。我认为比特币——我们在演示中也解释过——就是数字黄金。它能极好地存储和转移价值，比特币确实是健全货币。我对此深信不疑。

You know, I mean, I'm a Bitcoiner myself. I think Bitcoin, and we explained this in our presentation, is digital gold. So it's storing value, and it stores value and it moves value exceptionally well. I mean, bitcoin is really sound money. I'm a believer in that.

但华尔街将会开发各种产品并进行代币化。他们不会基于比特币区块链来构建，因为需要智能合约平台。正如你所知，无论是观察Solana还是以太坊，锁定总价值中约三分之一的总量会成为链的内在价值。这已成为Solana和以太坊的底线。全球经济规模达80万亿美元，但这还是低估的，因为GDP只是最终销售概念。

But Wall Street is going to be building products and tokenizing products. They're not going to be building on the Bitcoin blockchain, you know, because they need a smart contract platform. And as you know, if you look at whether Solana or Ethereum, if you look at the total value locked, about a third of that value, gross value, becomes the intrinsic value of the chain. Like, that's been the floor for Solana and Ethereum. The global economy is $80,000,000,000,000 but it's understating because, you know, GDP is a final sales concept.

假设是120万亿美元规模，你不可能把120万亿都放在一条公链上。以太坊可能承载2000万，因为已有大量价值锁定其上。所以会有多条L1链的空间。但以太坊已占据所有创新三分之二以上的份额，保持着100%正常运行时间，几乎所有宣布的项目都是以太坊的二层方案。我并不反对Solana或Avalanche等其他链，但作为机构级区块链，华尔街选择在以太坊上构建。

So let's say it's $120,000,000,000,000 You can't put $120,000,000,000,000 onto one public chain because know, Ethereum would be like, you know, 20,000,000 because there's just so much value locked up on it. So there's going to be room for more than one L1. But Ethereum has been the place that's been capturing more than two thirds of all the creations. It's had 100% uptime, but almost every project that's been announced is a layer two on Ethereum. So, I mean, it's I'm not against Solana or Avalanche or these other chains, but as an institutional grade blockchain, Wall Street's building it on Ethereum.

好的。那么你认为质押收益率和以太坊价格上涨哪个更重要？虽然两者相关，但如果必须二选一呢？因为前者更像国库思维——我们认为资产被低估将持续升值，而收益率则更接近上市公司模式，涉及现金流、收入等常规指标。

Okay. And then how do you think about what's more important, the staking yield or the price of Ethereum going up? Now they're related, but if you had to pick one or the other, right? Because one is more of kind of a treasury, we just think that this thing is undervalued and will continue to appreciate versus the yield itself is much more akin to a public company where there's cash flow and revenue and these kind of normal metrics.

我认为加密货币确实迫使我们重新思考何为真正的租金寻求。比特币社区正在捕获价值，比特币区块链增值的原因在于所有能源消耗都体现在价格中。对于智能合约，我认为它正在证明自己是个'厚协议'。不同于TCP/IP作为基础层，在以太坊上无论质押还是操作，价值都被区块链本身捕获，它充当着货币基础的角色。

Well, I think crypto really has forced us to rethink what I call rent seeking really looks like, you know, because Bitcoin, the community is capturing the value. That's why the the Bitcoin blockchain grows in value is because it's all the energy required is reflected in the price. In smart contracts, I I think it's proving that it's a fat protocol. So instead of TCPIP being the base layer for Ethereum, whatever you're staking and operating on Ethereum, the value is captured on the blockchain itself. It's acting as a monetary base.

因此在我看来，以太坊价格未来可能会大幅上涨——这是个简单的机械逻辑。如果贝莱德和高盛发行稳定币并实现股票代币化，虽然作为L2运行但基于以太坊L1，他们必然关心L1的升级。最终他们会持有以太坊。如果20家投行像持有比特币储备那样将以太坊纳入资产负债表储备，其价格必将大幅攀升。

So to me, the price of Ethereum probably goes up a lot in the future because I mean, this is a simple mechanical measure. If BlackRock and Goldman launch stablecoins and they have tokenized stocks and it's an l but it runs on ethereum's l one, they'll want to care how the l one upgrades. So they're going to eventually own ethereum. So then if 20 investment banks buy ethereum as a balance sheet reserve, much as they hold Bitcoin as reserve, then the price of Ethereum is going go up a lot.

有道理。你对2026年有什么看法？或许可以就此收尾。你之前提到标普指数会有20%回调，而一切似乎都在持续上涨。

That makes sense. What is your view 2026? Maybe there's a place where we can close. Everything keeps going up. You mentioned S and P correction of 20% earlier.

我觉得人们不喜欢听这个。是啊，某种程度上，你知道的，可能是加密货币

I don't think people like hearing that. Yeah. Kind of, you know, maybe crypto

股票等等。我的意思是，从某种意义上说现在还为时过早，我可以给你一些笼统的看法，但实际上我对下一年的情况要到12月初才能有概念，因为那时离前一个市场结束只剩一个月了。比如今年，我认为标普指数会达到7000点，对吧？但如果达到9000点，那就会透支明年的涨幅。所以价格存在不确定性，但我认为2026年有很多乐观因素：首先货币政策正在宽松，抵押贷款利率有下降空间。

stocks, etcetera. Mean, it's early in a sense I can give you some of my generalized thoughts, but like, I don't really have an idea of what the following year looks like until early December, because then we're only one month left in the prior market. Because this year, for instance, I think SP gets to 7,000, right? But if we get to 9,000, then it pulls from next year. So price being a little unknown, I think there's a lot to be optimistic about in 2026 because, one, monetary policy is easing and that's room for mortgage rates to come down.

而且我们知道市场存在巨大的压抑需求——不仅希望住房变得更可负担（比如通过允许资本建造更便宜的房子等方式），还希望人们能从抵押贷款压力中获得缓解。ISM制造业信心指数已连续32个月低于50，这是历史最长记录。但一旦美联储开始降息，企业信心就会增强，ISM指数就会回升。这对美国经济是好事。我们知道明年会有产业回流。

And we know there's a huge pent up market for not only housing to become more affordable, like through allowing capital to build cheaper homes and stuff, but for people to have relief from mortgages. The ISM, which is the benchmark of manufacturing confidence, has been below 50 for thirty two months, the longest stretch in history. But once the Fed starts cutting, companies can get more confident so that ISMs recover. That's great for The US economy. We know there's onshoring next year.

这属于GDP活动范畴。而人工智能，正如你提到的机器人、AgentTik、超级智能这些，明年将出现重大创新，有利于盈利增长。所以我认为盈利前景不错，但股价已经反映了多少？

That's GDP activity. And then AI, I think, is becoming, as you just pointed out, like robots, AgenTik, superintelligence. These are huge innovations coming next year that are good for earnings growth. So I think the earnings picture looks good. But how much is reflecting the stock price?

我们还不清楚。比如如果我们今年以7000点收官，那明年股票还有很大上涨空间。如果以8000点结束，那可能会出现30%的回调。所以我...

We don't know yet. Like if we exit this year at 7,000, then there's plenty of room for stocks to do well next year. If we end the year at 8,000, then we're going to have a 30% drawdown. So I

好的。其实Lad，我还有个问题想问你。你对Opendoor的零售维权运动怎么看？这种业务模式让房地产与宽松货币政策产生了交集。

Okay. Yeah. Actually, Lad, I have one more question for you. Opendoor, what is your read on the retail activism campaign and kind of the, a business like that where you've got all the real estate, kind of intersecting with monetary policy that's easing?

是啊，我支持Opendoor能成功。虽然我没深入研究，但我欣赏Eric Jackson，我觉得他是个很有见地的人。

Yeah. I mean, I'm rooting for Opendoor to work. I haven't done the work. I mean, I'm a fan of Eric Jackson. I think he's really thoughtful guy.

我是说，他看起来...首先他几年前就搞定了碳问题。所以，就像，当我...你懂吧？所以我觉得埃里克非常聪明。Opendoor，我不了解他们的商业模式。

I mean, he's look. First of he nailed the carbon a couple years ago. So, like, when I, like you know? So I I think Eric's very smart. Opendoor, I don't know the business model.

据我理解，他们好像是买卖房屋的。这方面我没有专业见解。但股东们能尝试让公司觉醒并改变商业模式，我完全支持。这就是激进投资者的作用。所以我希望他们能成功。

I think what I understand to be is like you buy homes and you're selling it. So that I don't have expertise. But the idea that the shareholders can try to get the company to wake up and then change their business model, I'm all for that. That's what activists do. You know, so I'm rooting for it to be successful.

只是我还没深入研究，所以不太清楚。

I just don't, I haven't done the work, so I don't know.

是啊。在我看来，这可能是近期最成功的股东积极主义运动了吧？我是说，不知道还有哪个激进投资者能让CEO辞职、管理层停止抛售股票，还把Shopify的前CEO请回来。经历这一切后你会觉得，或许不该让单打独斗，而是该组团行动。

Yeah. To me, it's probably is the most successful activist campaign in recent memory, right? I mean, I don't know if an activist has been able to get the CEO to quit, got the management to stop selling shares, bring in, you know, the former CEO of Shopify. You just like go through all this and you're like, maybe the whole thing was don't have one person go activist, have like a group of people.

没错。而且这些都对股东有利，对吧？因为你是在利用公司可能存在的良好架构。我只是说我自己还没深入研究。当然是这样。

Yeah. And it's all doing good things for shareholders, right? Because you're, you're, you're taking what's maybe a good structure of a company. I just, I'm just saying I haven't done the work, so. Yeah, of course.

但我，你觉得...

But I, you know Do you think

你认为这种情况会更多吗？随着散户投资者资金更充裕、信心更强，这会成为一种趋势吗？他们开始挑选公司并真正推动变革？

we'll see this more? Like, as the retail investors get more capital and almost get more confidence, do you see that this kind of becomes a trend where they start to pick companies and actually advocate for change?

是的，我认为如果是公众信任的对象，比如某个人，我会完全支持这种做法。因为你看，如今社交媒体为可信的人提供了很好的平台。当然，如果是不靠谱的人，你肯定不希望他们成功。但公众自会分辨真伪。如果有人不认同，他们可以做空股票。所以我觉得随着事态发展，这是健康的资本主义运作。

Yeah, I think if it's something that the public trusts, like a person, I'd be absolutely supportive of it because, you know, today social media gives people that are credible a good platform. Of course, if it's not a credible person, you don't want that to succeed. But, you know, the public can figure those things out. And then, of course, if someone disagrees, they can short the stock. So, I mean, I think as it plays out, healthy capitalism.

没错，我同意。你想把听众引向哪里？今天所有聆听你高见的人，你希望他们关注什么？

Yeah. I agree. Where do you want to send people? All the people who listen to your genius thoughts today, where would you like to send them?

有几个方向值得关注。如果你对市场感兴趣，可以查看Fundstrat，在Twitter上搜索fundstrat就能找到我们，或者访问我们的研究服务平台fsinsight.com。如果有人关心以太坊和我们的资金策略，他们应该关注Bitmine。Bitmine官网是bitminetech.io，Twitter账号是b I t m n r（Bitminer）。当然在Bitmine上有很多关于以太坊超级周期和比特大陆资金策略的研究报告，这些内容能帮助你获得更高的每股以太坊收益。

Well, there's a couple of places. You know, if you care about markets, you want to check out Fundstrat and you can find us fundstrat on Twitter, or we have a research service called fsinsight.com. But if someone cares about Ethereum and our treasury strategy, they should be focused on Bitmine. And Bitmine has a website, bitminetech.io, and a Twitter handle, b I t m n r, so Bitminer. And of course, on Bitmine, there's a lot of research on explaining the Ethereum super cycle and really the treasury strategy of Bitmain and how it's helping you get more Ethereum per share.

太棒了。汤姆，非常感谢你抽空参与这次对话，我们下次再约。

Amazing. Well, Tom, thank you so much for taking the time to do this. We'll do it again in the future.

好的，谢谢。

Yep. Thanks.