软件工程的第三个黄金时代——多亏了AI，与Grady Booch共同见证

毫无疑问。

No doubt about it.

但从规模上讲，别忘了二战后，尤其是在美国，人们的可支配收入增加了，这使得爱好者们能够真正从事这些事情。

But in terms of scale and also remember post World War two, you had the addition of especially in The United States, you had more disposable income, which made it possible for hobbyists to actually do these kinds of things.

最后，还有军方在生产集成电路和晶体管。

And then lastly, you had the military who was producing integrated circuits and transistors.

突然之间，尤其是在硅谷，你可以去Fry's或者Fry's的前身商店购买这些元件——那时还没有Fry's。

And all of a sudden, especially in Silicon Valley, you could go down to Fry's or the Fry equivalent, this is before Fry's, and buy these things.

它们就在那里，触手可及。

They were just they were there.

这使得人们能够去尝试，而尝试在软件历史上是非常重要的一部分。

And so it enabled people to play, and play is an important part in the history of software.

所以，在七十年代末到八十年代初，发生了一件非常美妙的事，那是一个充满实验精神的活跃时期。

So you had this wonderful thing happening in, I'd say, the late seventies and early eighties, which was a vibrant time of experimentation.

有一本名为《睡鼠说了什么》的精彩书籍，书中提出个人电脑的兴起与嬉皮士反文化运动的兴起密切相关。

There's a delightful book called What the Dormouse Said, which posits that the rise of the personal computer was also tied together with the rise of the hippie counterculture.

于是就有了这种推动——你知道的，权力归人民，还有那种‘要爱不要战争’之类的理念。

And so this this drive toward, you know, power to the people and, you know, let's, you know, love like, make love, not war, these kinds of things.

这是斯图尔特·布兰德的时代，是默里恶作剧者们的时代。

This is the era of Stewart Brand, the era of of, the Murray pranksters and the like.

这催生了像The Well这样的东西，那是最早的社交网络，今天我们将它们称为公告板，它们在硅谷兴起。

And that led to things like The Well, which was the very first social network, which was today, we call them bulletin boards, grew up in in Silicon Valley.

顺带一提，斯图尔特是个非常可爱的人。

Quick aside, Stuart, just a lovely fellow.

他实际上在那本关于这群恶作剧者的书中被提及为其中一员。

He was actually mentioned as one of the merry pranksters in, in the book about, about them.

他至今仍活跃在公众视野中，最近刚出版了一本精彩的新书，名为《维护：第一部分》，探讨了系统的问题。

He's still on the scene, and he's just released a wonderful book called Maintenance Part one, which looks at the problems of systems.

软件是其中之一，还有与之相关的种种问题。

Software is one of them and the problems of main associated with them.

总之，我们现在就在这里。

Anyway, here we are.

七十年代末，八十年代初。

Late seventies, early eighties.

这也是一个非常充满活力的时期，因为有很多酷炫的事情可以做。

Also a very vibrant time because there's a lot of cool stuff that could be done.

是的。

Yeah.

实际上，Stripe Press 正在出版这本书。

And Stripe Press is publishing this actually.

我会在下方的节目笔记中留下链接。

I'll leave a link in the show notes below.

这本书看起来非常不错。

It looks like a really nice book.

Stripe Press 以出品高质量作品而闻名。

And Stripe Press is known to produce excellent quality.

所以我真的很期待去深入了解这本书。

So I'm actually excited to look into this.

是的。

Yeah.

这是一本非常、非常棒的书。

It's a great, great book.

所以，我们意识到，我们现在开始拥有了一种新的理论视角，不是通过过程，而是通过对象和类来看待世界。

So the realization was that we now had the beginnings of theories of looking at the world, not through processes, but through objects and classes.

我们有来自分布式系统的需求拉动，也有来自试图构建越来越复杂系统的需求拉动。

We had the demand pull of distributed systems, the demand pull from trying to build more and more complex systems.

因此，当时也出现了这场完美风暴，真正开启了第二个黄金时代。

And so there was also this perfect storm that really launched that second golden age.

坦白说，我就是在那时登上这个舞台的。

And that's frankly where I came onto the scene.

我只是在正确的时间出现在了正确的地点。

I was just in a lucky place at a lucky time.

那时我还在范登堡空军基地工作，负责导弹系统和太空系统。

I was at the time working at Vandenberg Air Force Base on, missile systems and space systems.

当时有一个设想中的军用航天飞机，我也是这个项目的一员。

There was a envisioned military space shuttle, and I was part of that program as well.

那真是太棒了。

It was great.

那是个很有趣的地方，因为我们每周都会有两次发射。

It was a fun place to be because we'd have launches, like, twice a week.

这相当酷。

It was pretty cool.

你会跑过去说，哇。

You'd run up and say, wow.

看那景象。

Look at that.

那真是相当疯狂。

It was it was pretty wild.

在我工作的那栋楼里，每次有发射任务时，我都得疏散，因为那是泰坦火箭的发射。

At the building in which I work, I had to evacuate whenever there was a building or a launch because it was a Titan launch.

泰坦火箭发射台离我们非常近，如果

The Titan launch pad was really close to us, and if

它在发射时爆炸了，

it had blown up on

就会把我们的大楼炸飞，那可就太烦人了。

the lie launch pad, it would have it would have blown up our building, which would have been really annoying.

所以是的。

So yeah.

那是段美好的时光。

Good times.

还有另一个小故事。

One other one other quick story.

你总能分辨出秘密发射正在进行，比如秘密间谍卫星，因为有两个明显的迹象。

You could always tell when it was the secret launches going off, the secret spy satellites, because there were two main clear indications.

第一个迹象是所有酒店都会住满，因为会有承包商赶来。

The first is all the hotels would fill up because you'd have the contractors come in.

其次，发射当天，附近可以观看发射的高速公路会挤满前来观看的人群。

And second, the day of the launch, the highway nearby where you could see the launch would fill up with people to watch it.

所以在那个世界里，根本没什么秘密。

So there were no secrets in that world.

所以我们现在来到八十年代末。

So here we are, late eighties.

当时世界正准备迎来一种看待世界的新方式，那就是面向对象编程和面向对象设计。

The the world was poised for a new way of looking at the world, and that was object oriented programming and object oriented design.

那么，它与第一代有什么不同呢？

So how does that differ from the first generation?

不同之处在于，我们以不同的抽象层次来理解世界。

It differs in the sense that we approach the world at a different layer of abstraction.

不再是仅仅关注这里这片原始的数据海洋，以及我们用来操作这些数据的算法。

Rather than just looking at the data, which was this raw lake out here, and the algorithms we have to manipulate them.

而是将它们整合到一个地方。

We bring them together into one place.

我们将对象和过程结合起来。

We combine the the objects and the and the, processes together.

而且它成功了。

And it worked.

天哪。

My gosh.

它让我们能够完成以前无法做到的事情。

It'll label us to do things we could not do before.

它是许多系统的基础。

It was the foundation for a lot of systems.

去计算机历史博物馆看看MacWrite和MacPaint的软件吧。

Go out to the computer history museum and go look at the software for for MacWrite and MacPaint.

它是用ObjectPascal编写的，这是早期的面向对象编程语言之一。

It was written in ObjectPascal, one of the early object oriented priming languages.

我见过最美丽的软件作品之一。

One of the most beautiful pieces of software I've seen.

它的结构良好，组织有序，事实上，其中所做的设计决策，你至今仍能在诸如Photoshop这样的系统中看到其延续。

It's well structured, it's well organized, and in fact, of the design decisions made in it, you still see persist in systems such as Photoshop today.

它们依然存在，这本身就是一个关于软件生命周期的有趣故事。

They still exist, which is an interesting story unto itself about the lifetime of software.

因此，通过对象的视角来看待软件被证明是非常有效的，因为它使我们能够以一种全新的、新颖的方式来应对软件的复杂性难题。

So looking at software through the lens of object proved to be very effective because it allowed us to attack software, the software complexity problem, in a new and new and novel way.

所以，就像第一个黄金时代一样，这也是一个非常充满活力的时期。

And so much like the first golden age, this was also a very vibrant time.

我想说的是，在八十年代和九十年代，当时有诸如‘三剑客’这样的人物，比如我、伊夫·阿拉加卡桑、伊芙，还有吉姆·朗博。

And I would say the the eighties and nineties where you had people such as the three amigos, me, Yves Aragakassan, Eve and, Jim Rumbaugh.

还有皮特·科德。

You had Pete Code.

拉里·康斯坦丁也重新回到了这个领域。

You had Larry Constantine was back on the scene.

埃德·约尔顿也重新回到了这个领域。

Ed Yordon was back on the scene.

很多人开始说，让我们不要从流程的角度，而是从对象的角度来看待软件，去思考它。

A lot of folks who were saying, let's look at software not from processes, but from objects and think about it.

这非常好。

Now this was great.

我们犯了一些错误。

We made some mistakes.

对继承概念的强调过度了。

There was an overemphasis upon the ideas of inheritance.

我们认为这会是，你知道的，最了不起的事情。

We thought this would be, you know, be the greatest thing.

这有点不对。

That was kinda wrong.

但从类和对象的角度来看待世界，这种理念已经根深蒂固了。

But the idea of looking at the world from classes and objects, it was kinda built in.

于是，开始发生的事情——这也是一种经济现象——当人们开始构建这些系统时，我们突然看到了平台的兴起。

And so what began to happen, this was also an economic thing, is as people started building these things, all of a sudden we saw the rise of platforms.

其实这早有先例，因为在软件的第一个黄金时代，人们就开始一遍又一遍地构建同类的东西。

Now there was precedence for this, because in the first golden age of software, people started building the same kinds of things over and over again.

这个想法是收集流程，收集那些常用的算法，比如，你知道，我该如何操作硬盘或磁鼓？

The idea of collecting processes, collecting algorithms that were commonly used, like, you know, how do I manipulate a hard drive or a drum?

我该如何将内容写入电传打字机？

How do I write things to a teletype?

我该如何，你知道，把东西显示在屏幕上？

How do I, you know, put things on a screen?

这类算法该如何分类并编码化？

These kinds how do I sort these kinds of algorithms could be codified?

于是，最初的想法——如果你愿意这么说的话——是将它们打包成可复用的组件，这便应运而生。

And so the first ideas of, if you will, packaging them up into reusable things came into be.

正是在这个时候，至少在商业系统领域，IBM Share诞生了。

This is when, at least in the the the world of, business systems, IBM Share came to be.

Share是一个由客户组织的团体，他们彼此之间完全公开地共享软件。

Share was a customer organized group that literally shared software among one another's totally clean.

在第一个黄金时代内。

Within the first golden age.

对吧？

Right?

这个第一个黄金时代。

This first golden age.

没错。

Right.

所以，这有点像一种原始的、或者从我回看的角度来看更原始的方式，就是把东西打包成，嗯，相关的模块。

So so this was kinda like a primitive or, like, by me looking back a more primitive way of just, like, packaging stuff into, like, yeah, related.

就像你所说的，可能是排序算法，IBM 也在分发一些函数之类的东西。

May that be sorting algorithms, as you said, IBM was also distributing just like functions and things like that.

IBM 并没有在做这件事。

IBM wasn't doing it.

这完全是公众驱动的。

It was perfectly it was completely public driven.

IBM支持了它，但他们是将其分发的。

IBM supported it, but was They they disagreedated it.

是的。

Yeah.

所以关键在于，这是最早的开源软件。

So the point is this was the earliest open source software.

因此开源的理念早已存在。

So the ideas of open source existed.

还要记得当时软件和硬件的经济模式，软件基本上都是由主要制造商免费提供的。

And remember too in the economics of software and hardware back in the time, software was pretty much given away free by the main manufacturers.

IBM直到后来才开始对软件收费。

IBM did not charge for software until later.

到了六十年代末、七十年代初，他们才意识到，天哪，我们可以靠这个赚钱，于是他们将软件和硬件分离，并开始为此收费。

In the later sixties, seventies, they realized, my gosh, we can make money, and they decoupled software and hardware and started charging you for it.

但在最早的时期，有一个充满活力的社区，人们可以说，天哪，我写了这个东西。

But in the earliest days, there was this vibrant community of people who could say, you know, gosh, I've written this thing.

尽管用吧。

Go ahead and use it.

没问题。

That's fine.

没问题。

No problem.

所以，那时候源代码还是后来才出现的。

So, source was, was late at that time.

在第二个黄金时代，同样的事情再次发生，我们看到了操作系统兴起类似的景象——开源软件的兴起，这一现象在第二个黄金时代再次出现，但这次是新的抽象层。

And the same thing began to happen in the second golden age, in which we saw much like the rise of operating systems, the rise of open source software, the same phenomena applied in the second golden age, but now it was a new layer of abstraction.

哦，我现在想要一个用于操作这些新潮的阴极射线管的库。

Oh, I want to have now a new, library for, you know, writing to these new fangled CRTs.

这儿就有。

Here it is.

我自己拥有它并没有什么竞争价值，但天啊，它让我能做出一些非常酷的东西。

No competitive value in me having it, but by gosh, it enables me to build some really cool things.

你也可以拥有它。

You can have it too.

因此，开源汲取了第一个黄金时代的根基与理念，并在第二个黄金时代得以应用，但形成了一种不同的抽象层次。

So open source laid its roots, took its ideas from the first golden age, applied itself in the second golden age, but a different kind of abstraction.

在幕后，谈及经济时，平台正在崛起。

Lurking in the background, speaking of economics, was the rise of platforms.

因为突然间，这些库变得越来越庞大。

Because now all a sudden, these libraries are becoming bigger and bigger.

随着我们转向分布式系统，当时出现了所谓的面向服务的架构。

And as we move to distributed systems, there was the rise of, back then, we called it service oriented architectures.

当时我们有了HTML之类的技术。

There was this need of, you know, we had HTML and the like.

我们可以互相传递链接，但有一些疯狂的人说，如果我们能做些像分享图片这样的事，会不会很酷？

We could, you know, pass links back and forth, but there was some crazy folks that said, wouldn't it be cool if we could do things like, you know, share images?

那正是其中之一

And that was one of

网景允许的那些功能，就是他们为HTML添加了可以嵌入图片的特性。

the things that Netscape allowed, which was they produced this addition to HTML that allow you to put images.

如果我们能通过HTML传递消息，那岂不是很酷？

Wouldn't it be cool if we could pass messages back and forth via HTML?

于是，互联网通过HTML协议和HTTP协议，成为了一个更高层次的抽象媒介，用于传递信息和流程。

So all of a sudden, the Internet became via HTML protocols, HTTP protocols became a medium at a higher level of abstraction for passing information and processes around.

但当时需要将这些内容打包起来。

But there was a need to package it up.

因此，面向服务的架构、SOAP、面向服务的架构、面向服务的协议等应运而生。

So thus was born service oriented architectures, SOAP, the service oriented architecture, service oriented protocols, all that.

它们是我们今天所拥有技术的前身。

The predecessors to what we have today.

这在第二黄金时代为平台时代的开端奠定了基础，也就是贝索斯等人真正引领我们走向的时代。

And this was laying the foundations in the second golden age for the the beginnings of the platform era, which is, you know, what Bezos and and others have really brought us to.

在我们当前的时代，你看到的是一些由各种API围绕形成的孤岛。

We're jumping ahead in our current age where you have these islands which are sort of formed by all sort of APIs around them.

但那是第二个黄金时代，它们正在诞生。

But it was the second golden age is they were being born.

当你说到平台时，你所说的平台崛起是指什么？

And when you say platforms, what do you mean when you say the rise of platforms?

你如何理解平台？

What how how do you think of a platform?

AWS 就是一个很好的例子。

AWS would be a good one.

Salesforce 是另一个例子，它们就像被护城河环绕的经济上极具吸引力的城堡。

Salesforce would be another one in which I have these economically interesting castles defended by the moat around them.

像 Salesforce 这样的组织会允许你跨越护城河，当然，要收取一点费用。

And those organizations like Salesforce give you access across the moat for, you know, a slight fee.

甚至不只是小费用。

Well, not even a slight fee.

对。

Yes.

不是一笔小费用。

Not a slight fee.

对。

Yeah.

假设我们作为Salesforce，你自己做的成本如此之高，以至于从我们这里购买是合算的。

Under the assumption that we as like a Salesforce, the cost of you doing it yourself is so high, it makes sense for you to buy from us.

所以在第二个黄金时代，我们看到了这类企业的兴起，因为某些类型软件的成本足够高，复杂性也确实很高。

So during the second golden age, we saw the rise of those kinds of businesses because the cost of certain kinds of software was sufficiently high and the complexity was certainly high.

这促进了这类SaaS公司的商业和产业发展。

It allowed the business and the industry of these kinds of SaaS companies.

让我们看看九十年代末、两千年初。

So let's look at the late nineties, early two thousands.

那也是一个充满活力的时期，就像第一个黄金时代一样。

Also a vibrant time, much like the first golden age.

我们见证了互联网的增长。

We had the growth of the Internet.

你是什么时候拥有第一个电子邮件地址的？

When did you get your first email address?

我的第一个电子邮件地址，大概是1956年2月左右获得的。

My first email address, I got sometime in maybe 02/1956.

当Gmail推出时，这仍然非常新颖。

It was still very fresh when Gmail launched.

但你是什么时候拥有第一个电子邮件地址的？

But when did you get your first email address?

1987年。

1987.

那时候还是ARPANET时代。

When it was the ARPANET.

事实上，是的。

In fact, at yes.

那时候我们有一本小册子。

That time We had a little book.

那本小册子大概有100页长，列出了世界上每个人的电子邮件地址。

It was probably a 100 pages long that listed the email address of everybody in the world.

那感觉相当酷。

It was pretty cool.

你可以在网上找到它们，还能看到我的邮箱地址。

You could find them online, and you can see my email there.

现在已经不能用了，因为域名系统之类的已经不一样了。

Doesn't work anymore because it doesn't have the same, you know, top level domain kind of things.

所以我在电子邮件还没流行起来之前就开始用了。

So I've been on email before email was cool.

因此，当你看到像电子邮件这类结构变成大众化商品时，在软件的第二个黄金时代，软件开始渗透到文明的缝隙中。

And so as you saw these kinds of structures like email becoming a commodity thing, In the second golden age of software, this is when software began to filter into the interstitial spaces of civilization.

它不再仅仅是推动商业或特定领域发展的单一事物，而是成为了文明结构本身的一部分。

And it became not just this one thing fueling businesses or certain domains, it became something that became part of the very fabric of civilization.

这一点很重要。

This was important.

因此，我们现在不再担心第一黄金时代那些问题了，大部分都已经解决了。

And so now, the things we worried about in the first golden age, we'd solve them for the most part.

它们已经成为我们环境的一部分。

They were part of the very atmosphere.

我们很少去思考算法，因为你知道，大家基本都了解它们。

We didn't think about algorithms much because, you know, gosh, everybody kinda knows about them.

这正是技术应该达到的状态。

And this is as technology should be.

最好的技术会悄然消失，融入我们呼吸的空气之中。

The best technology evaporates and disappears and becomes part of the the air that we breathe.

而现在，这种情况正在发生。

And that's what's happening now.

但在第二黄金时代，我们今天所处位置的基础已经奠定。

But it was in the second golden age, the foundations of where we are today are here.

那么，大约在2000年左右发生了什么？

So what happened around two thousand or so?

到那时，互联网已经很发达了，许多企业正在兴起，但同时也发生了崩盘，因为从经济上讲，这根本说不通。

Well, we had, by that time, Internet was big, lots of businesses being built, but there was the crash, around that time because economically, it just didn't make sense.

于是出现了大幅回调。

So there was this great pullback.

与此同时，还发生了整个Y2K问题，人们投入了大量精力来解决这个问题。

Also happening was the whole Y2K situation where a lot of effort was put into, solving that problem.

事后人们回过头来说，哎呀，我们其实没必要为此担心。

People in retrospect say, well, gosh, we didn't need to worry about that.

但身处其中时，你会意识到：天哪，这可不得了。

But being in the middle of it, you realize, oh, no.

当时做了大量英勇的工作。

There was a lot of heroic work.

如果这些工作没有完成，就会引发大量问题。

If that hadn't been done, then lots of problems would have happened.

因此，这是一个很好的例子，说明最好的技术是你根本看不到的。

So this is a good example of how the best technology you simply don't see.

为了规避一个根本没有出现的问题，投入了大量的精力和金钱。

A lot of effort and a lot of money was spent to subvert a problem that simply did not manifest itself.

这其实是件好事。

That's a great thing.

格雷迪刚才提到，最好的技术就是你根本注意不到的技术。

Grady just mentioned how the best technology is one that you simply do not see.

这是一个被低估的观察，对于大多数关键任务软件来说都是如此：当它正常工作时，你是看不见它的。

This is an underrated observation and is true for most mission critical software: when it works it's invisible.

只有当它出问题时，用户才会注意到它的存在。

It's only when it breaks when users notice that it's there.

然而，构建可靠、无形的软件存在一个问题。

There is, however, a problem with building reliable, invisible software.

在快速推进（缺乏防护措施可能导致故障）与加强防护以确保稳定（但会降低发布速度）之间，常常存在一种张力。

There is often a tension between moving fast with few guardrails that can make things break, or putting in more guardrails for stability but then slowing down in shipping speed.

其实还有第三种方式，这正好引出了我们今天的赞助商——Statsig。

Well, there is a third way, which leads us nicely to our presenting sponsor, Statsig.

Statsig 构建了一个统一的平台，融合了两种文化的优势：持续交付和实验。

Statsig built a unified platform that enables the best of both cultures: continuous shipping and experimentation.

功能开关让你能够自信地持续发布，先向 10% 的用户推送，尽早发现问题，必要时立即回滚。

Feature flags get you shipped continuously with confidence, roll out to 10% of users, catch issues early, roll back instantly if needed.

内置的实验功能意味着每次发布都自动成为一次学习机会，通过严谨的统计分析，清晰展示功能对指标的具体影响。

Built in experimentation means every rollout automatically becomes a learning opportunity with proper statistical analysis showing you exactly how features impact your metrics.

由于所有功能都集成在一个平台，并使用相同的产品数据，加上完整的分析和会话回放，整个组织的团队都能协同工作，做出数据驱动的决策。

And because it's all in one platform with the same product data, analytics session replays everything, teams across your organization can collaborate and make data driven decisions.

像 Notion 这样的公司，从每个季度仅进行个位数的实验，提升到使用 Statsig 后进行超过 300 个实验。

Companies like Notion went from single digit experiments per quarter to over 300 experiments with Statsig.

他们通过功能开关发布了超过 600 个功能，在快速迭代的同时有效防止了指标倒退。

They shipped over 600 features behind feature flags, moving fast while protecting against metric regression.

微软、Atlassian 和 Brex 也因相同的原因使用 Statsig。

Microsoft, Atlassian and Brex use Statsig for the same reason.

它是实现规模化下速度与可靠性并存的基础设施。

It's the infrastructure that enables both speed and reliability at scale.

他们提供慷慨的免费套餐供新手使用，团队的专业定价从每月150美元起。

They have a generous free tier to get started and pro pricing for teams starts at $150 per month.

要了解更多信息并获取三十天的企业版试用，请访问 statsig.com/pragmatic。

To learn more and get a thirty day enterprise trial, go to statsig.com/pragmatic.

好了，让我们回到格雷迪提到的千年虫事件上。

And with this, let's get back to the Y2K event that Grady was talking about.

是的，你还记得2000年临近时那段紧张的时光吗？

Yeah, remember how stressful that time was leading up to year 2000.

我觉得当时甚至有不少电影预测世界会崩溃，但人们普遍担心这些系统会不会全部瘫痪？

I think some movies even came out predicting, you know, how how the world would collapse, but there was this fear of, like, will all these systems crash?

在临近那几年的几个月里，情况变得越来越紧张，虽然我当时还是个孩子，但2000年新年那会儿，大概是我经历过的最紧张的一个新年，因为你根本不确定会发生什么。

And it it started to become pretty intense in in the few months leading up, so I I I was, you know, like a a kid at that time, but when the year 2000 like, that was probably the most stressful new year because you weren't kind of sure.

你心里盼着别出事，结果什么都没发生，你就想：好吧。

You were hoping, you know, to and then nothing happened and you're like, okay.

原来就是一场虚惊。

It was just a hoax.

所以任何经历过那段时期的人都学会了不再相信这些说法，但你说得对。

So anyone who went through their, like, kind of learned to, like, not trust these But you're right.

比如，知道不会发生。

Like, knowing what no.

当时做了大量的工作。

There was so much work.

对吧？

Right?

为了确保溢出不会在错误的地方发生。

To to make to make sure that that overflow did not, like, hit at the wrong place.

是的。

Yeah.

所以我们现在在这里。

So here we are.

试着想象自己身处二月的第一个十年。

Mentally put yourself in the the first first decade of the February.

那是个很有趣的地方，因为虽然发生过崩溃，但依然有太多有趣的事情可做，有太多优秀的软件可以编写。

Is a fun place because, well, yeah, the there was the crash, but still so much fun stuff to do, so much great software to be written.

我们当时主要受限于自己的想象力。

We were still only limited largely by our imagination.

现在我要暂停一下，补充一些之前没提到的历史背景。

Now I'm gonna pause for a moment and backfill with some history that I hadn't mentioned.

我们一直在谈论一般的软件。

We've been talking about software in general.

在人工智能领域，也存在着一条并行的历史，同样经历了几代发展。

There was a parallel history going on in AI in which we saw also some generations.

人工智能的第一个黄金时代出现在四十年代和五十年代，当时有赫伯特·西蒙、纽厄尔和明斯基等人。

The first golden age of AI was in the forties and fifties where you had people such as Herbert Simon and Newell and Minsky in particular.

那时的重点是，天啊，我们可以用符号方法人工构建智能。

The focus there was upon, gosh, we could build intelligence artificially using symbolic methods.

所以这是人工智能的第一个黄金时代，也是第一个伟大时代。

So this is the first golden age, first great age of AI.

神经网络的想法也曾被尝试过。

And the ideas of neural networks were tried.

他们构建的东西是SnarQ，这是第一个使用真空管的人工神经元。

The the thing they built was the SnarQ, which was the first, vacuum tube artificial neuron.

制造一个单一的神经元需要大约五个真空管。

It took, like, five vacuum tubes to make a single neuron.

当时英国有一份报告指出：我们在这里投入了大量资金，但说实话，这根本行不通。

And there was a report coming out of The UK at the time that said, we're spending a lot of money here, but by gosh, it doesn't work.

因此，当人们意识到确实无法构建出任何有趣的东西时，第一个黄金时代就结束了。

And so the first golden age ended when they realized, yeah, you can't really build anything interesting.

而且，神经网络是一条死胡同。

And furthermore, neural networks are a dead end.

这在很大程度上是一条死胡同，因为我们缺乏足够的计算能力来实现它们。

Largely a dead end because we didn't have the computational power to do them.

我们也没有相应的算法概念和抽象方法，来知道在规模扩大后该如何利用它们。

We didn't have the algorithmic concepts, the abstractions to to know what to do with them once we had them at scale.

人工智能的第二个黄金时代是在八十年代，当时像法尔科姆这样的学者出现，提出了一种全新的视角。

The second golden age of of AI was really in the eighties when you had people like Falconmime come along and say, hey, there's another way of looking at it.

那就是通过规则来审视问题。

And it's looking at it through rules.

于是，机器学习的概念应运而生，像MICE之类的系统也开始登场。

Thus was born the idea of machine learning, things like mice and the like came upon the scene.

但同样地，我们也见证了又一次AI寒冬的到来。

But there too, we saw the AI winter come about.

顺便说一下，当时硬件也出现了显著的发展。

By the way, there was an interesting rise in hardware at the time.

Lisp机器、思维机器都是在这一时期被研制出来的。

The Lisp machine, the thinking machine, were all built during this time.

这是计算机架构充满活力的时期。

Vibrant periods of time of a of computer architectures.

因此，你可以看到这些因素彼此相互促进。

So you see these kind of feeding into one another.

但最终它失败了，因为这些方法无法扩展。

But ultimately, it failed because they didn't scale up.

一旦你超越了几百条if-then语句，我们就真的没有能力构建能够处理它们的推理引擎了。

Once you got beyond a few 100 if then statements, we simply didn't have a means of building inference engines that could do anything with them.

所以我们再次处在一个令人兴奋的时代。

So here we are in an exciting time again.

21世纪头十年，人工智能又回到了幕后。

First decade of the 2000s, AI was kind of back in backrooms.

我们仍然有很多酷炫的事情可以做，而且越来越多的分布式系统出现了。

We still had a lot of cool things to do and more and more distributed kind of systems.

此外，推动这一趋势的还有这样一个事实：软件如今已通过个人电脑进入个人手中。

Plus, fueling that also was the fact that software was now in the hands of individuals through personal computers.

因此，对软件的需求变得更大了。

So the demand for software was even greater.

我认为——这可能有点争议——我们正处在软件工程的第三个黄金时代，但实际上它始于千禧年之交。

I would claim, and this may be a little controversial, we are in the third golden age of software engineering, but it actually started around the turn of the millennium.

不是现在，而是那时。

It's not now, but it's then.

其崛起的第一个迹象是，我们看到了抽象层次的新一轮提升，从软件程序的单个组件到构成我们平台的整个库和包。

And the first indication of the rise of it is we saw a new rise in levels of abstraction from individual components of our software programs to whole libraries and packages that were part of our platform.

哦，我需要处理消息传递吗？

Oh, do I need to do messaging?

嗯，我不会在自己的机器上做这个。

Well, I'm not gonna do that on my own machine.

我可以去这个处理消息传递的库。

I can go out to this library which does messaging.

我需要管理这整块数据。

I need to manage this whole chunk of data.

我们用Hadoop或类似的东西吧。

Let's use Hadoop or something like that.

当时它还不存在，但种子已经播下，正在生长。

It wasn't around the time, but the seeds where it was growing.

因此，我们再次看到抽象层次的增长，从简单的程序发展到系统的子组件。

So we again saw a growth in levels of abstraction from just simple programs to now subcomponents of systems.

这是我们的方法论、语言以及随之而来的一切发生的下一次重大转变。

And that was the next great shift that happened in our methodologies, in our languages, and all that began to follow.

所以第三个黄金时代，我们已经身处其中好几年了。

So the third golden age, we've been in for several years already.

不过我们先别跑得太快，目前在编码领域中AI助手等技术的发展，从很多方面来看，正是对这类事物增长的一种回应，因为我们希望加速它们的使用。

And not to get ahead of ourselves, what's happening with AI assistants and the like in the coding space is in many ways a reaction to the growth of those kinds of things because we want to accelerate their use.

我们有这么多这类库，但懂得它们的人却不够多。

We want to we have so many of those kinds of libraries out there and not enough people who know about them.

我们希望通过辅助工具来加速它们的使用。

We want to accelerate the use of them by having aids that help us do so.

因此，这就是我将Kershur和ChatGPT等AI代理所处的背景，它们在某种程度上是推动我们进入第三个黄金时代的力量的延续。

So that's the context in which I put AI agents such as Kershur and ChatGPT in, and that they are in a way a follow on to the forces that have already led us to this third golden age.

所以我们现在正处于一个非常活跃的时期，但问题与第一代和第二代已大不相同。

So we are now in a very vibrant time, but the problems are different from the first and second generations.

现在的问题是什么？

What are the problems now?

首先，我们有太多的软件。

First, it's problems of we have so much software.

我们该如何管理它？

How do we manage it?

我们还必须应对安全和保密性问题。

And we have to deal with issues of safety and security.

别人会不会偷偷注入一些我无法信任的东西？

Can somebody sneak in something that I can't trust?

我该如何保护自己免受这种威胁？

How do I defend myself against that?

在软件供应链中注入恶意内容实在太容易了。

It is so easy to inject something in the software supply chain.

我该如何阻止坏人往里面塞东西？

How do I prevent the bad guys from putting stuff inside there?

我该如何防御它？

How do I defend against it?

关于僵化瓶颈之类问题的整个历史，很适合用来说明间谍活动与软件的关系。

The whole history behind stuck necks and the like is a good one to show, you know, espionage and software.

于是，我们过去在软件发展史上长期面临的那些人为问题，曾经因为它们深深融入文明而被我们忽视了。

And so all of a sudden, the human issues that we had for much of the history of software, we were insulated about because it was so much part of civilization.

这些人为问题如今变得突出而紧迫，直接影响着我们的世界。

These human issues became front and center, clear and present for our world.

另一个方面是其经济问题。

And the other element is to the economic issues of it.

我们现在有了那些大到不能倒的公司。

We had now companies that were too big to fail.

如果微软倒闭了，会发生什么？

What would happen if a Microsoft were to go under?

如果谷歌倒闭了，会发生什么？

What would happen if Google were to go under?

它们对全球经济如此重要，只要它们一打喷嚏，世界某个地方就会感冒。

They're so economically important to the world that the things they do, they sneeze and some part of the world catches a cold.

因此，我们如今在软件的第三个黄金时代所面临的问题，与第一代和第二代不同，但同样令人兴奋。

And so the problems we have now in this third golden age of software are different than they were than the first and second generations, but equally as exciting.

最后，我们还有伦理问题。

And then last, we have the ethical issues.

因为我能开发这种软件，所以我有能力追踪你在一天中每一个时刻的位置。

Because I can do this kind of software, it is possible for me to track where you are in every moment of the day.

我确实能做到这一点。

I can do that.

我应该这么做吗？

Should I do that?

有些人会说，应该，因为这对人类来说是好事。

Some will say, yes, I should because it's, you know, it's a good thing for humanity.

另一些人则不太确定。

Others will say, not so sure

关于这一点。

about that.

我很喜欢你这样的阐述方式。

So I like how you laid it on.

这非常有趣，尤其是通过你的个人经历以及分享的历史——我想我们很多人都没有真正反思过这段历史，即这一切是如何开始的，坦白说，这个领域是多么年轻。

It's very interesting, especially through both your experience and also sharing the history that I think a lot of us don't really reflect on, which is how it all started and just honestly how young it is.

我的意思是，你知道，七八十年可能很长，这取决于你的年龄，但它甚至算不上一个世代，或者说勉强算一个世代。

If if I mean, you know, like seventy or eighty years can be long depending on how old you are, but it is it's it's not even a generation or a barely generation.

这已经经历了几代发展了。

It's a couple of generations.

是的。

Yeah.

但我在整个行业观察到的一个现象是，虽然这种架构设置很有道理，但对于当今许多软件工程师来说，似乎存在一种与之相悖的普遍感受，那就是一种正在加速蔓延的生存焦虑，尤其是在寒假期间。

But one thing that I'm seeing across the industry right now, which feels very like, this setup makes sense, but one thing that kinda feels it contradicts it for a lot of software engineers today is there seems to be an existential dread that is especially accelerating, especially over the winter break.

寒假期间发生的情况是，在假期之前，这些人工智能语言模型在自动补全方面已经相当不错了。

What happened over the winter break is before the winter break, these AI LMs were were pretty good for autocomplete.

有时候它们能生成这样或那样的东西。

Sometimes they could generate this or that.

在寒假期间，我不确定你有没有试过一些新模型，我试过了，它们生成的代码真的很好，好到我开始信任它们了。

And over the winter break, I'm not sure if you played with some of, I have with the new models, they actually generate really good code to the point that I'm starting to trust them.

是的。

And Yes.

就软件发展的历史而言，我的理解是，软件开发者一直都在编写代码，这是一件很难的事情，我们中的许多人需要多年才能学会，甚至更长时间才能变得出色。

As far as the history of software has been, my understanding is that software developers have written code and it's a hard thing to do and a lot of us, you know, it takes years for us to learn and to be excellent at it even longer.

因此，我们很多人开始陷入一种深刻的生存危机：好吧，机器居然能写出非常非常优秀的软件代码，首先这到底是怎么回事？为什么在过去的几个月里突然就发生了？

And so a lot of us are starting to have this really existential crisis of, okay, well the machine can write really, really good software code, first of all, like WTF and how did this happen over the last few months?

然后接下来的问题是：接下来会怎样？

And then the question is, what next?

我觉得这可能会动摇整个职业，因为我觉得编程与软件工程一直紧密相连，但现在可能不再如此了。

It feels that it could shake the profession because I feel coding has been so tightly coupled to software engineering and now it might not be.

你知道，先深吸一口气，回顾一下历史，你对当前正在发生的事情有什么看法？

You know, looking at, I guess, you know, like taking a breath out first and looking through both the history what is your take on what's happening right now?

让我这么说吧，这并不是开发者们第一次面临存在危机。

Well, let me say that this is not the first existential crisis the developers have faced.

再多说一点。

Tell us more.

他们在第一代和第二代时就经历过类似的存在危机。

They have faced the same kind of existential crisis in the first and the second generation.

所以我看到这种情况时会说，你知道的，当我和那些为此担忧的人交谈时，这种危机也会过去。

So that's why I look at this and say, you know, this too will pass when I talk to people who are concerned about it.

别担心。

Don't worry.

专注于基础知识，因为这些技能永远不会消失。

Focus upon the fundamentals because those skills are never gonna go away.

我有幸见过格蕾丝·霍珀。

I had a chance to meet Grace Hopper.

她真是个令人愉快的人，就像一个精力充沛的女性。

She was just delightful, you know, fire plug of a woman.

太惊人了，真是了不起。

Just amazing, amazing thing.

对于你们的读者，去谷歌搜索一下格蕾丝·霍珀和大卫·莱特曼，她曾登上过大卫·莱特曼的节目，你们就能感受到她的个性。

For for your readers, go Google Grace Hopper and David Letterman, and there's this she appeared on the David Letterman show, and then she you'll get a sense of her personality.

我们会把相关链接放在下方的节目笔记里。

Well, we're gonna link her to the show notes below.

当然，是她第一个认识到，在五十年代，将软件与硬件分离是可能的。

She, of course, is the one who recognized that it was possible here we are in the fifties, It was possible to separate our software from our hardware.

这对当时制造早期计算机的人构成了威胁，因为他们说，天哪，你永远无法构建出高效的东西，因为你必须紧贴着机器来设计。

This was threatening to those who were building the early machines because they said, you know, gosh, you can never build anything efficient because you have to be a tide so closely to the machines.

那个领域中的许多人写文章表达了担忧，认为这会毁掉我们的工作，本该如此。

And many in that field, and they wrote about it, expressed concerns that, you know, this is going to destroy what we do, and it should have.

于是，我们在这里见证了首批编译器的诞生。

So we had here the beginnings of the first compilers.

Fortran语言的发明也发生了同样的情况，当时人们说，天哪，我们写的紧凑汇编语言比任何人都强，比任何机器都强。

The same thing happened with the invention of Fortran, where people were saying, gosh, you know, we can write tight assembly language better than anybody else, better than any machine can kinda do.

但当我们将抽象层次从汇编语言提升到更高性能的语言时，这一观点被证明是错误的。

But that was proved wrong when we moved up a level of abstraction from the assembly language to the higher performing languages.

因此，有一群人同样对抽象层次的变化感到担忧和不安，因为他们意识到自己当时所掌握的技能将会消失，并被他们自己创造的事物所取代。

And so you had a set of people who were similarly concerned and distressed by the changes in levels of abstraction because they recognized that the skills they had in that time were going to go away, and they were going to be replaced by the very thing themselves created.

当时你并没有看到那么大的危机，因为在那段时间里，我们的人数并不多。

Now you didn't see as much of a crisis because there weren't that many of us back in that time frame.

我们谈论的，你知道，也就几千人。

We're talking, you know, a few thousands of people.

现在，我们面对的是数以百万计的人，他们非常合理地提出这个问题：这对我意味着什么？

Now we're talking millions of people who ask quite legitimately the question, what does it mean for me?

所以，就像我相信你也遇到过一样，我遇到过不少，尤其是年轻的开发者，他们来找我说：格雷迪，我该怎么办？

So I've had, as I'm sure you have had, a number of, you know, especially young developers come up to me and say, Grady, what should I do?

我是不是选错了领域？

Am I choosing the wrong field?

我是不是应该，你知道，去做些不同的事情？

Should I, you know, do something different?

我向他们保证，现在正是从事软件行业的激动人心的时刻，原因如下。

And I assure them that this is actually an exciting time to be in software because of the following reasons.

我们正在向更高层次的抽象迈进。

We are moving up a level of abstraction.

就像从机器语言到汇编语言，从汇编语言到高级编程语言，再从高级编程语言到库的演变一样。

Much like what happened in the rise from machine language to assembly language, from assembly language to to higher order programming languages, from higher order programming languages to libraries.

同样的事情正在发生，我们正目睹抽象层次的又一次变革。

The same kind of thing happened, and we're seeing the same change in levels of abstraction.

现在，作为一名软件开发者，我不必再操心那些细节了。

And now, I, as a software developer, I don't have to worry about those details.

因此，我认为这极大地解放了我，让我摆脱了以往必须处理的繁琐工作，但核心原则依然不变。

So I view it as something that is extraordinarily freeing from the tedium of which I had to do, but the fundamentals still remain.

只要我选择构建经得起时间考验的软件，也就是说，我不是建完就扔掉。

As long as I am choosing to build software that endures, meaning that I'm not gonna build it and I throw it away.

如果你打算建完就扔，那你想怎么做都行。

If you're gonna throw it away, do what you want.

那太好了。

That's great.

而且我看到很多人正是为此目的使用这些智能体。

And I see a lot of people using these agents for that very purpose.

这真是太棒了。

That's wonderful.

你将能够去自动化那些你目前无法承担的事情。

You're gonna go off and automate things you could not have afforded to do today.

而如果你只是为自己使用，那更是再好不过了。

And if you're a single user for it, then more power to you.

这可以说是软件领域的爱好者时代或爱好者层面，就像我们在个人电脑最早期的日子里看到的那样，人们构建了这些东西。

This is the hobbyist era and the hobbyist side of software, if you will, much like we saw in the earliest days of, personal computers where people have built these things.

非常棒。

Great stuff.

伟大的想法将由此诞生。

Great ideas will come from it.

我喜欢这个比喻。

I like the comparison.

对。

Yes.

是的。

Yeah.

伟大的想法将由此产生。

Great ideas will come from it.

你知道，人们会培养出新的技能。

You know, people will build skills.

我们将做以前无法做到的事情。

We'll do things we could not have done before.

我们会自动化那些在经济上不可能实现的事情，但这些事情未必能持久。

We'll automate things that were economically not possible, but they're not going to endure necessarily.

但无论如何，它们已经产生了有价值的影响。

But still, will have made a valuable impact.

我想就像在第一个时代，个人可以购买它一样，现在也会有与这个行业毫无关联的人进入，但他们可能会带来惊人的想法。

And I guess just like in the first era where personal people could buy it, you will have people come into the industry who have honestly nothing to do with it, they might bring amazing ideas.

对吧？

Right?

就像那时候，你知道，一位小学老师可能会买一台个人电脑。

Like back then, you know, school school teacher might have bought a personal computer today.

我刚刚跟楼上的邻居聊了，他是个会计师。

I I just talked to my neighbor upstairs, an accountant.

她让ChatGPT帮她编写了一些Apps Script，来稍微改善他们会计团队的工作流程，因为她知道这东西怎么运作。

She has instructed Chad GPT to build some Apps Script to help their accounting team's process a bit better because she knows how that thing works.

她跟软件完全没关系，但如今却在为自己创建属于个人的临时性软件，顺便说一句。

Nothing to do with software, but now creating their own personal throwaway software, by the way.

是的，完全相同的类比。

Yes, absolutely the same parallels.

而且我为此感到欣喜。

And I celebrate that.

我支持这一点。

I encourage it.

我认为这是最棒的事情，这正是我们处于这个充满活力时期的原因。

I think it's the most wonderful thing, which is why we're in this vibrant period.

在个人电脑的早期，同样的事情也发生过。

In the early days of the personal computer, the very same thing happened.

你发现艺术家们被吸引，尤其是当时的个人电脑和Amiga。

You found artists drawn to, especially the PC and the Amiga at the time.

你发现游戏玩家意识到：我拥有了一个以前没有的新表达媒介。

You found gamers who realized, I've got a new medium for expression that I did not have before.

这就是为什么那是一个非常充满活力的时期。

And that's why it was a very vibrant time.

同样的事情正在发生。

The same thing is happening.

而那么多关于‘天啊，我们面临存在危机’的抱怨，都来自那些只狭隘关注自己行业的人，他们没有意识到，这里发生的事情实际上正在拓展整个行业。

And so much of the lamenting of, oh gosh, we have an existential crisis, are those who are narrowly focused upon their industry, not realizing that what's happening here is actually expanding in the industry.

我们将看到更多由非专业人士编写的软件。

We're gonna see more software written by people who are not professionals.

我认为这是最了不起的事情，因为现在我们正经历着与个人计算机反文化时代相似的情形，今天也在发生同样的事情。

And I think that's the greatest thing around because now we have software much like in the in the counterculture era of of the personal computer, the same thing is happening today as well.

我喜欢你所说的。

I like what you're saying.

不过，有一个但是。

However, one However.

不过，我也关注一个人，那就是Entropic的首席执行官达里奥·阿莫代伊，我关注他的原因是，我通常不关注首席执行官，但他大约一年前说了一些有趣的话。

However, one thing that I also pay attention to, one person I pay attention to is Dario Amodei, the CEO of Entropic, and the reason I pay attention to him is I I try I tend not to pay attention to CEOs, but he actually said about a year ago, said something interesting.

他说他认为大部分代码将由AI生成，可能一年内达到90%，之后还会更多，我们当时觉得这很荒谬，但他是对的，代码确实被生成了。

He says he thinks most code will be generated by AI, about 90% of it maybe in a year, and then more, and we thought that's silly, and then he was right, and code was generated.

是的。

Yes.

现在，他又说了一件有趣的事。

And now, he said another thing interesting.

这听起来很有趣，但下一个听起来有点吓人。

That sounded interesting, but the next one sounds scary.

他说，引述一下，软件工程将在十二个月内实现自动化。

He said, I quote, software engineering will be automatable in twelve months.

这个说法听起来更吓人，因为我们都知道编程是软件工程的一个子集。

Now, this sounds a lot more scarier for reasons we know coding is a subset of software engineering.

但他说了这个，你怎么看？

But he said this, what is your take on this?

而且你已经给出了强烈的回应，所以。

And you've had a strong response already, so.

关于这一点，我有一两点要说。

I have one or two things to say about it.

首先，我使用Claude。

So first off, I use Claude.

我使用Anthropic的工作。

I use Anthropics' work.

我认为这是我的首选系统。

I think it's it's my it's my go to system.

我用它来处理JavaScript、Swift、PHP，甚至Python的各种问题。

I've been using it for problems with JavaScript, with Swift, with PHP, of all things, and Python.

所以我用它，它对我来说非常有用，主要是因为我有一些特定的库想用。

So I use it, and it's it's been a great thing for me primarily because, you know, there are certain libraries I wanna use.

谷歌搜索太差了。

Google search sucks.

这些东西的文档也很烂。

Documentation with these things suck.

所以我可以借助这些助手来加速我对它们的理解。

And so I can use these agents to accelerate my understanding of them.

但也要记住，我在这些领域至少有一两年的经验基础。

But remember also, I have a foundation of at least one or two years of experience in these spaces.

好的。

Okay.

几十年来，我对这些基本原理有了一定的理解。

A few decades where I sort of understand the fundamentals.

这就是我之前说基本原理不会消失的原因。

And that's why I said earlier that the fundamentals are not gonna go away.

这在每一个工程领域都是如此。

And this is true in every engineering discipline.

基本原理不会消失。

The fundamentals are not gonna disappear.

我们所使用的工具会改变。

The tools we apply will change.

所以，达里奥，我尊重你的观点，但也要认识到，达里奥的看法和我不一样。

So Dario, man, I I respect what you're saying, but recognize also that Dario has a different point of view than I do.

他领导着一家需要盈利的公司，并且需要向他的利益相关者传达信息。

He's leading a company who needs to make money, and it's a company who he needs to speak to his stakeholders.

因此，会说出像这样的极端言论。

So outrageous statements will be said like that.

我想他在达沃斯论坛上说过这类话，如果

I think he said these kind of things at Davos, if

我没记错的话。

I'm mistaken.

那番话其实非常合理。

It it was very reasonable.

是的。

Yes.

而且，我会礼貌地说，嗯，我会用一个科学术语来描述达里奥所说的话，并将其置于背景中。

And and I'd say politely well, I'll use a scientific term in terms of how I would characterize what what Dario said and put it in context.

这完全是胡说八道。

It's utter bullshit.

这是技术术语。

That's the technical term.

因为我认为他大错特错，而且我认为他错的原因有很多。

Because I think he's profoundly wrong, and and he I think he's wrong for a number of reasons.

首先，我接受他的观点，即它会加速某些事物的发展。

First, I accept his point of view that it's going to accelerate some things.

它会淘汰软件工程吗？

Is it going to eliminate software engineering?

不会。

No.

我认为他对软件工程是什么存在根本性的误解。

I think he has a fundamental misunderstanding as to what software engineering is.

回到我一开始说的。

Go back to what I said at the beginning.

软件工程师就是平衡这些力量的工程师。

Software engineers are the engineers who balance these forces.

所以我们把代码作为一种工具，但它不是驱动我们的唯一因素。

So we use code as one of our mechanisms, but it's not the only thing that drives us.

他或他任何同事所谈论的内容，都没有触及软件工程师必须处理的那些决策问题。

None of the things that he or any of his colleagues are talking about attend to any of those decision problems that a software engineer has to deal with.

我们在自动化领域所看到的这些，都不属于那些问题。

None of those we see within the within the realm of automation.

他的工作主要集中在最低层次的自动化，我认为这类似于当年编译器所发生的情况。

His work is primarily focused upon the automation at the lowest levels, which is, I would put akin to what was happening with compilers in these days.

这就是为什么我说，这又是另一个层次的抽象。

That's why I say, it's another level of abstraction.

别担心，各位开发者。

Fear not, oh developers.

你们的工具在变化，但你们的问题没有变。

Your tools are changing, but your problems are not.

我反对他观点的另一个原因在于。

There's another reason why I I push back on what he's saying.

如果你看看Cursor之类的东西，它们主要是在我们反复遇到的一系列问题上训练出来的。

And that is if you look at things like cursor and the like, they have mostly been trained upon a set of problems that we have seen served over and over again.

是的。

Yep.

这没什么关系。

And that's okay.

就像我在第一代、第一个黄金时代所说的那样，我们有一组特定的问题，因此库就是围绕这些问题构建的。

Much like I said in the first generation, first golden age, we had a certain set of problems, and so libraries are built around them.

这里正在发生同样的事情。

The same thing is happening here.

如果我需要在CRUD之上构建一个UI，比如某种以Web为中心的东西，我完全可以做到。

If I need to build a UI on top of CRUD, it's sub winter or some web centric kind of thing, I can do it.

就像你的朋友一样，他们能做就再好不过了。

And much like your friend, more power to them.

他们可以自己去做，因为有这样的能力。

They can do it themselves because the power is there to do so.

他们可能不会以此为基础建立一个企业。

They're gonna, you know, probably not build a business around it.

只有一小部分人可能会这么做。

Some small percent of them might do so.

但它让他们能够做以前无法做到的事情，因为他们现在处于更高的抽象层次。

But it's enabled them to do things they could not do before because they're now at a higher level of abstraction.

达里奥忽视了这一点，我稍微化用了莎士比亚的一句话：计算世界中的事物，达里奥，远比你哲学中所能想象的要多。

What Dario neglects, and I used a bit of a paraphrase from Shakespeare, there are more things in computing, Dario, than are dreamt of in your philosophy.

计算的世界远比以网络为中心的系统要广阔得多。

The world of computing is far larger than web centric systems of scale.

因此，我们今天在这些以网络为中心的系统上看到了许多应用。

So we see many of the things applied today on these web centric systems.

我认为这很棒、很美好，但这意味着还有很多东西尚未被自动化。

And I think that's great and wonderful, but it means that there's still a lot of stuff out there that hasn't yet been automated.

所以我们不断将这些边缘领域向远处推移。

So we have we keep pushing these fringes away.

所以我开头跟你讲了那些故事，因为历史正在重演，或者说，正如一些人所说，历史正在再次押韵。

So I told you those stories at the beginning because history is repeating itself, or as some will say, history is rhyming again.

同样的现象今天正在发生，只是处于不同的抽象层次。

The same kinds of phenomena are applying today, just at a different level of abstraction.

所以这是第一个。

So that's the first one.

软件比这个软件世界更大，比他所关注的要大。

Software is bigger than this world of software is bigger than what he's looking at.

它比软件密集型系统更大。

It's bigger than the software intensive systems.

然后第二，如果你看看这些代理所处理的系统类型，它们实际上是在自动化我们反复看到的模式，而这些模式正是它们被训练所依据的。

And then second, you know, if you look at the kinds of systems that most of these agents deal with, they are in effect automating patterns that we see over and over again for which they have been trained upon.

模式本身是新的抽象，它们不仅仅是单个算法或单个对象，而是代表了协同工作的对象和算法的群体。

Patterns themselves are new abstractions that are in effect not just single algorithms or single objects, but they represent societies of objects and algorithms that work together.

这些代理在自动化模式的生成方面非常出色。

These agents are great at automating generations of patterns.

我想做这样的事情，我可以用地道的英语告诉你，因为这就是我描述模式的方式。

I want to do, you know, this kind of thing, and I can tell you in English because that's how I describe the pattern.

所以，总之，我认为他是错的。

So, anyway, that's why I think he's wrong.

他有这个能力很好。

More power to him.

但你知道，我认为这更是一个令人兴奋的时代，而不是存在主义的担忧。

But, you know, I think this is an exciting time more than things to worry about existentially.

让我再讲一个故事，关于我们如何看待抽象层次的转变。

Let me offer another story with regards to how we see a shift in levels of abstraction.

英语是一种非常不精确的语言，充满歧义和细微差别。

English is a very imprecise language, full of ambiguity and nuance and the like.

因此，人们会好奇，我怎么能将它用作一种有用的语言呢？

So one would wonder, how could I ever make that as a useful language?

答案是，我们软件工程师已经这样做了。

And the answer is, we already do this as software engineers.

我去对某人说：嘿，我希望我的系统做这件事。

I go to somebody and say, Hey, I want my system to do this.

它看起来有点像这样。

It kinda looks like this.

我会给他们一些示例。

And I give them some examples.

我早就这么做了。

I do that already.

然后有人会把这些转化为代码。

And then somebody goes and turns that into code.

我们已经提升了一个抽象层次，可以说：我希望它能做这个。

We've moved up a level of distraction to say, I'd like it to do this.

我给你一个具体的例子。

I'll give you a concrete example.

我正在使用一个以前从未接触过的库。

I'm working with a library I'd never touched before.

它是JavaScript的D3库，让我能够实现一些非常有趣的可视化效果。

It's the JavaScript D3 library, which allows me to do some really fascinating visualizations.

去搜索一个叫 Victorian Engineering Connections 的网站。

Go off and search for a site called Victorian Engineering Connections.

这是一个非常棒的小网站，这位先生为博物馆做了这个，安德鲁，你可以输入一个名字，比如乔治·布尔。

It's this lovely little site where the gentleman did this for a museum, Andrew, and you can put in a name like George Boole.

你会看到他的名字，找到关于他的信息，以及他周围的社会关系网络。

And you see his name, you find things about him, and you find his social network around him.

你可以点击并探索。

And you can go touch and explore.

这非常非常酷。

It's very, very cool.

我说，我想要这样的东西。

And I said, I want that kind of thing.

但天哪，我不知道该怎么实现。

But my gosh, I don't know how to do that.

那么，我能做些什么呢？

So, what can I do?

他把他的代码给了我。

He gave me his code.

我意识到它使用了 D3 库。

I realize it uses the d three library.

我对 D3 库一无所知。

I knew nothing about the d three library.

于是我让 Cursor 给我构建一个最简单的版本。

So I said to Cursor, go build me the simplest one possible.

就用五个节点，给我演示一下。

Go do it out of, you know, five nodes and show me.

这样我就能研究它的代码。

So I could then study the code.

然后我就能说，他们想做的其实是这个。

Then I could say, Well, what they wanted to do is this.

让节点根据类型呈现不同的样子。

Go make the nodes look like this, depending upon their kind.

就像我对人类表达需求一样，我现在用英语表达需求，就突然不需要再费力地将其转化为现实了。

Just like I would do with a human, I was expressing my needs in an English language, that now all of a sudden, I didn't need to labor to turn that into reality.

我可以直接和我的工具对话来帮助我完成这件事。

I could simply have a conversation with my tool to help me do that.

因此，它缩短了我想做的和我能做的之间的距离。

So it reduced the distance between what I wanted and what I could do.

我觉得这太棒了。

And I think that's great.

这是一次突破。

That's a breakthrough.

但请记住，正如我对达里奥说的，这只在我做那些人们已经做过成百上千次的事情时才有效。

But remember, as I said to Dario, this only works in those circumstances where I'm doing something that people have done hundreds and hundreds of times before.

我本可以自己学习，就像费曼会说的，你自己去做吧，因为只有这样你才能真正理解。

I could have learned it on my own, as Feynman would have said, you know, go do it yourself because then that's the only way you're gonna understand.

我的反应是，这很好，但世界上有太多我感兴趣的东西。

And I my reaction is that's great, but there's so much in the world I'm curious about.

我无法理解所有东西。

I can't understand it all.