The Product Podcast - 谷歌产品副总裁谈搜索与AI模式的未来 | 罗比·斯坦恩 | E287 封面

谷歌产品副总裁谈搜索与AI模式的未来 | 罗比·斯坦恩 | E287

Google VP of Product on The Future of Search and AI Mode | Robby Stein | E287

本集简介

在本集中,产品学校首席执行官卡洛斯·冈萨雷斯·德·维利亚翁布罗西亚与谷歌搜索产品副总裁罗比·斯坦因展开对话。谷歌搜索服务数十亿用户,占据全球90%以上的市场份额,是阿尔法贝特公司年收入4000亿美元的核心引擎。 罗比正引领搜索历史上最重要的变革:向人工智能转型。他负责管理庞大的产品组合,包括已拥有7500万日活跃用户的全新AI模式。凭借在Instagram打造Stories和Reels的经验,罗比深入剖析了如何在科技巨头内部打造从零到一的产品,以及为何必须拥有坚定信念才能突破早期糟糕数据的阻碍。 你将学到: 像初创公司一样构建:在保护庞大核心业务的同时,如何保持惊人的速度并专注从零到一的项目。 真正的市场契合:为什么早期用户群体的留存曲线呈平缓或J型,才是产品真正有效的唯一可靠指标。 巨大灾难的价值:鲜为人知的故事——Instagram Reels和Close Friends早期的失败,是如何成为走向全球成功的必要步骤。 代理式搜索:谷歌如何超越提供链接,通过深度理解个人上下文,执行复杂、多步骤的任务。 关键要点: 从小处着手,赢得大成功:即使在谷歌这样的规模下,庞大的AI产品也始于仅500名可信赖的测试用户,专注于解决具体的用户痛点。 寻找高尔夫一杆:在构建AI时,寻找系统完美运行的罕见时刻,以此建立持续迭代所需的信念。 领导者必须共同创造:在大型组织中快速推进,领导者不能仅从顶层审批,而应组建工作组并深入细节参与。 鸣谢: 主持人:卡洛斯·冈萨雷斯·德·维利亚翁布罗西亚 嘉宾:罗比·斯坦因 社交媒体链接: 了解更多关于产品学校的信息,请点击这里 在TikTok上关注我们的播客,请点击这里 在LinkedIn上关注产品学校,请点击这里

双语字幕

仅展示文本字幕,不包含中文音频;想边听边看,请使用 Bayt 播客 App。

Speaker 0

作为创始人、作为领导者,每个人都需要思考:如果我们做对了最重要的事,这可能会成为未来五到十年为人们创造增长、价值和帮助的绝佳机会?

As a founder, as a leader, everyone needs to think, what's gonna be the most important thing that if we get it right, this is potentially a five or ten year opportunity of growth, of value, of helpfulness that we can give people?

Speaker 0

我们与AI模式的旅程,是从AI概览开始,逐步构建更复杂的模型,让你能够提出更复杂的问题。

Our journey with AI Mode was like starting with AI overviews, building more sophisticated models, and letting you ask these more harder questions.

Speaker 0

最初的版本,没有任何东西是完美的。

And the first versions, nothing starts great.

Speaker 0

我问了它一两个特别难的问题,它居然全都答对了。

I would ask it, like, one or two questions that were really hard, and it just nailed it.

Speaker 0

这就像是你打高尔夫球时,一杆打出了完美的击球。

It's kinda like when you you hit a golf ball, and you just hit a perfect golf shot.

Speaker 0

一切完美地融合在了一起。

It all comes together.

Speaker 0

然后你可能很长一段时间都再也打不出那样的球,但你会想:我知道,一个系统完全有可能做到这些——帮你预订餐厅,而且它还非常了解你的口味。

And then you don't do that again for a while, but you're kinda like, I know what is is possible to have a system that can get stuff done, book restaurant reservations for you, but it knows your taste well.

Speaker 0

搜索对你而言可以变得极其有用,这种程度的个性化是很多年前根本不存在的。

Search can be really useful for you specifically in a way that really just didn't exist many years ago.

Speaker 1

嘿。

Hey.

Speaker 1

我是卡洛斯,Product School的首席执行官,也是本播客的主持人。

This is Carlos, CEO at Product School and your host on the Product Podcast.

Speaker 1

今天的嘉宾是罗比·斯坦,谷歌搜索的产品副总裁。

Today's guest is Robby Stein, VP of product at Google Search.

Speaker 1

谷歌搜索可以说是21世纪最重要的产品,服务着数十亿用户,占据全球超过90%的市场份额。

Google Search is arguably the most significant product of the twenty first century, serving billions of users and holding over 90% of the global market share.

Speaker 1

随着Alphabet在2025年年收入突破4000亿美元,搜索依然是其核心引擎,贡献了其中超过50%的收入。

As Alphabet surpassed 400,000,000,000 in annual revenue in 2025, Search remains its engine, accounting for over 50% of that number.

Speaker 1

罗比目前正在引领搜索历史上最重要的变革——向人工智能转型。

Robby is currently steering the most significant shift in search history, the transition to AI.

Speaker 1

他负责管理一个庞大的产品组合,包括AI概览、谷歌镜头以及新推出的AI模式,后者已拥有7500万日活跃用户。

He oversees a massive portfolio, including AI overviews, Google Lens, and the new AI Mode, which has already scaled to 75,000,000 daily active users.

Speaker 1

在重返谷歌之前,罗比曾担任Instagram消费者产品负责人,领导了Stories和Reels的团队建设。

Before returning to Google, Robby was the head of consumer product at Instagram, where he led the teams that built Stories and Reels.

Speaker 1

在今天的对谈中,我们不会聊那些空泛的场面话,而是会深入探讨核心问题:即便身处大型企业,要如何以创业公司的思路打造产品,以及哪些才是真正有价值的具体指标。

In our conversation, we skip the high level fluff and get into the weeds of how you build like a startup, even inside a giant company, and the specific metrics that actually matter.

Speaker 1

为什么早期用户群体的留存率持平才是产品契合市场需求的唯一真正信号,还有那些不为人知的故事:Instagram Reels和“密友列表”功能曾遭遇的重大失误,是最终拿下全球市场必不可少的铺垫。

Why flat retention in your early cohorts is the only real sign of product market fit and the untold story of how colossal disasters with Instagram Reels and Close Friends were the necessary steps to eventual global success.

Speaker 1

本期内容是一堂在全球最大规模下打造产品的大师课。

This is a masterclass in building products at the largest scale on Earth.

Speaker 1

咱们马上开始。

Let's get into it.

Speaker 2

罗比,欢迎来到产品播客。

Welcome to the product podcast, Robby.

Speaker 0

谢谢邀请我来。

Thanks for having me.

Speaker 2

好的。

Okay.

Speaker 2

这么说你是回归谷歌的老员工了。

So you are a Google boomerang.

Speaker 2

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 2

他们就是这么说的。

That's what they say.

Speaker 2

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 2

目前,他是谷歌搜索的产品副总裁。

Well, currently, he's the VP of Product for Google Search.

Speaker 2

我很想多了解一些你上次在谷歌和现在这次之间发生了什么。

I'd love to learn a little bit more about kind of what happened between your previous run at Google and your current one.

Speaker 0

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 0

嗯,我2007年刚加入谷歌时是做激励项目,负责Gmail和广告。

Well, yeah, I started in Google in 2007 as an inspirational program and worked on Gmail and ads.

Speaker 0

后来我离开了,因为我一直梦想创办一家公司。

And then I left and, you know, I've always dreamed of founding a company.

Speaker 0

我想试试看。

I wanted to try that.

Speaker 0

而且,那时候我对推荐系统和排序领域的各种想法特别着迷。

And, you know, I was kind of obsessed with the various ideas around recommendations and kind the ranking space at the time.

Speaker 0

所以我创办了一家公司。

And so I founded a company.

Speaker 0

它叫Stamped,大约在2010年左右。

It was called Stamped back in 2010 or so.

Speaker 0

团队主要是前谷歌的同事,这些年下来,说白了,我一共参与了两家初创公司,另一家是最新的Artifact,我和Instagram的创始人一起打造了一款AI驱动的新闻信息流。

It was mostly a former Google team, and we basically, over the years, now that I was ended up kind of fast forward, there are about two startups that I I ended up working on, the other one being the most recent one called Artifact, which was a AI powered news feed that I worked on with the Instagram founders.

Speaker 0

此外,我也在Instagram参与消费类产品的工作,负责构建了动态、Reels、排序、私信和消息系统的大量功能。

And then I also like consumer products at Instagram, building out a lot of the kind of consumer product suite across Stories, Reels, ranking, the DM, and messaging system.

Speaker 0

因此,自从在谷歌早期那段广告经历之后,我的整个职业生涯都专注于消费类产品,致力于围绕信息和连接打造产品。

So really focused since that little ad stint at Google back at the first time around on consumer products and really building things around information and and connection over, you know, pretty much my entire career.

Speaker 2

明白了。

Got it.

Speaker 2

所以过去两年,你一直在领导谷歌的搜索业务。

So for the last two years, you've been leading search at Google.

Speaker 2

而其中最大的亮点之一,我认为就是我们现在都能看到的AI模式吗?

And one of the biggest, I would say, highlights is now this AI mode that we can all see?

Speaker 0

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 0

没错。

Exactly.

Speaker 0

我马上就要满两年了,这段时间我投入了大量精力在搜索的AI转型上,因为现在正是谷歌能够为人们做更多事情、真正实现其长期以来组织全球信息并让每个人都能获取的使命的绝佳时机。

I I I'm coming up on almost two years and, you know, really spending a lot of my time on the AI transformation of search because there's obviously this incredible moment in time where it's possible for Google to just do so much for people and really live up to this very timeless mission around organizing the world's information, making it accessible to anyone.

Speaker 0

我的意思是,只有现在才真正变得可能。

I mean, that's that's only now truly truly possible.

Speaker 0

因此,过去两年我一直在构建和拓展AI概览,也就是页面顶部的AI体验,还有镜头和视觉搜索体验,我很乐意聊聊这些。

And so spent the last two years building out and growing, you know, AI overviews, which was kind of at the AI experience at the top of the page, lens and the visual search experiences, which I'm happy to talk about.

Speaker 0

而最近的一个是AI模式,这是一个完整的对话式AI模式,应用于谷歌搜索,看到它不断成长真的令人兴奋。

And then the most recent one was around AI Mode, which was really a full conversational kind of AI mode to Google Search, which has been really exciting to see grow.

Speaker 2

为了更好地理解,目前谷歌搜索的规模有多大?

So just to put things in into perspective, what's the scale of Google Search today?

Speaker 0

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 0

我的意思是,搜索服务着数十亿用户,而我们的AI产品也已增长到拥有十亿用户。

I mean, Search serves, you know, billions and billions of users, and, you know, our AI products are have grown tremendously to be a billion users as well.

Speaker 0

有趣的是,我们看到在如此大规模的使用中,人们不再只是像以往那样进行搜索,而是开始提出这些非常自然语言的具体问题。

And so what's interesting is you kinda, what we're seeing is that at at very large scale, people are not just doing search like they usually do, but they're also asking these really natural language specific questions.

Speaker 0

这些需求正与视觉搜索同步增长,人们会拍摄他们周围自然环境的照片,比如鞋子,或者截取手机屏幕上的图片,询问在哪里可以买到类似的衣服。

And those are growing along with visual search where people are taking photos of their natural world around them, of their shoes, of they take screenshots on their phone and ask about where they could buy clothes similarly.

Speaker 0

因此,你正在见证搜索和信息获取方面前所未有的巨大变化——这些全新的使用场景,即使在几年前都还不存在,如今却已达到十亿用户的规模。

So you're seeing this tremendous and this, again, these are a billion user kind of product scale, new use cases for for search and for information that really didn't exist even a couple years ago.

Speaker 2

我认为这正是我非常好奇的一点。

And I think that's one of the things that I I'm very curious about.

Speaker 2

听起来,这在很大程度上是全新的使用场景。

It sounds like new use cases in many ways.

Speaker 2

同时,它也可能取代某些人的现有使用场景。

At the same time, it can be a replacement of an existing use case for some people.

Speaker 2

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 2

我很想知道你是怎么看待这个问题的。

So curious to know how you're thinking about this.

Speaker 2

如今,AI模式基本上是一个开关。

Today, AI Mode is basically a toggle.

Speaker 2

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 2

你可以在这两种体验之间切换。

You can switch between both experiences.

Speaker 2

这是长期的规划吗?还是你认为AI模式最终会成为默认选项?

Is that a forever intention, or do you see a situation where AI mode becomes the default?

Speaker 0

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 0

我认为我们对它的看法是,搜索为人们做了很多事情。

I think the way we think about it is, you know, search does so much for people.

Speaker 0

它涵盖的范围非常广。

It's so broad.

Speaker 0

从有人试图报税、寻找表格,到查找一张他们看到的地毯的特定图片,无所不包。

It's everything from someone trying to, you know, file their taxes and file find a form to looking up a very specific image of a carpet they found.

Speaker 0

你知道的。

You know?

Speaker 0

它的范围实在太广了。

It's it's so broad.

Speaker 0

实际上,对于许多问题,人工智能并没有特别大的帮助;系统会学习到,当你只是快速搜索某样东西或想找一张图片时,直接获取到那个内容才是最有用的。

And for many questions, actually, AI isn't even particularly helpful, and the the model the system actually learns if you're just doing a very quick search for something or you're trying to find an image, actually just getting directly at that piece of content is is most useful.

Speaker 0

所以你知道吗?

And so you know?

Speaker 0

但在事物发展和扩展的方向上,现在人们可以提出任何脑海中的问题,并获得相关信息。

But in terms of where things are growing and expanding, now it's possible for people to ask, you know, really anything that's on their mind and get information.

Speaker 0

因此,这些使用场景增长得最快。

And so those use cases are growing the fastest.

Speaker 0

所以我们发现,AI模式非常适合这些场景,但你想想看。

And so what we found is that AI Mode is really great for those, but actually, think about it.

Speaker 0

这是一个非常特定的使用场景。

It's a very specific use case.

Speaker 0

我想人们通常能意识到自己是否在思考一个更复杂的问题。

You kinda I think people kinda know when they have a more complicated question in mind.

Speaker 0

对于这些情况,我们认为AI模式特别有帮助,因为你能够提出后续问题。

And for those, we think AI mode is particularly helpful because you can ask for follow-up questions.

Speaker 0

你可以输入,你知道的,多句话。

You could put in, you know, multiple sentences.

Speaker 0

比如说,我要去旅行。

Say, I'm taking a trip.

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我有个朋友。

I have a friend.

Speaker 0

比如,一个人有过敏,

Here's you know, one has an allergy.

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另一个人养了狗。

The other has a dog.

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我们想坐在外面。

We wanna sit outside.

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我们想住在这里,这是我们的酒店。

We wanna live here's our hotel.

Speaker 0

比如,我们现在可以通过谷歌地图、旅行等实时信息系统来处理这类问题。

Like, we can Google can handle those kinds of questions now using all of, you know, the real time information systems in Google Maps with travel, etcetera.

Speaker 0

这真的很棒,但这是一个非常具体的使用场景。

And that's really neat, but that's a very specific use case.

Speaker 0

因此,我们的目标是,对于有这些高级用户需求的人,他们可以直接使用AI模式,而且有办法做到这一点。

And so our goal is that for people who have these power user kinda needs, they can go right to AI Mode, and there's a way to do that.

Speaker 0

但对于其他人,你只需直接在谷歌搜索中输入你想问的任何内容即可。

But for other people, you should be able just to put in, you know, whatever you want right into Google Search.

Speaker 0

如果AI有帮助,您会在页面顶部看到一个小的预览。

And if AI is helpful, you'll see that little preview show up at the top of the page.

Speaker 0

而且,我们正越来越多地推动这一功能,我刚刚宣布了一项实验,让这一点对用户来说更加简便。

And increasingly, we actually I just announced an experiment that makes this even easier for people.

Speaker 0

一旦您点击这个AI预览,您就能几乎无摩擦地进入AI模式,进行流畅的来回对话。

Once you click into that AI preview, you're effectively gonna be able to go into AI mode and have a back and forth conversation with very little friction.

Speaker 0

所以您不需要去想,哦,我该不该用AI模式?

So you don't need to know, like, oh, should I use AI mode?

Speaker 0

我该不该把这个放进搜索里?

Should I put this in search?

Speaker 0

您只需把任何想问的内容直接输入搜索框即可。

You can just put anything you want right into the search box.

Speaker 0

您会看到这个小小的AI预览。

You'll get this little AI preview.

Speaker 0

如果您点击它,就可以在AI模式下继续进行后续的来回对话。

And if you click on it, you can have a follow-up and a back and forth in AI Mode.

Speaker 0

这一切都是一个连续的体验。

And that's all one continuous experience.

Speaker 0

所以我认为我们不会对默认体验的思维方式做出任何改变,因为目前这种体验已经被数十亿用户所使用。

So I don't think we're gonna view any change, you know, in terms of how we're thinking about the default experience because that's what 's used at at kind of the billions of user scale, you know, at this point.

Speaker 0

而且它在所有这些使用场景中都表现得非常好,但事实证明,AI 对于这一代新的问题非常有用。

And so and it works great for all of these use cases, you know, but it turns out AI is useful for these this new generation of questions.

Speaker 0

因此,如果能在需要时直接让用户接触 AI,那将是最强大的模式。

And so if you can give people direct access to AI when it's needed, that's gonna be the most powerful model.

Speaker 0

这对我们来说只是一个非常广阔的扩展机会。

It's just really kind of expansionary opportunity for us.

Speaker 2

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 2

而我对于未来 AI 更加普及后的思考是,我们可能不再去区分这是不是一个 AI 使用场景。

And and the way I'm thinking about this in the in the future as AI become even more mainstream is that we probably stop thinking about, is this an AI use case or a non AI use case?

Speaker 2

最终,我只是有个问题。

Ultimately, I have a problem.

Speaker 2

我过来,找到我的解决方案。

I come and I find my solution.

Speaker 2

而如何协调这个解决方案,取决于产品设计者来决定。

And it's kind of up to the product builder to decide how they are going to orchestrate that solution.

Speaker 0

我觉得这是对的。

I think that's right.

Speaker 0

我认为,目前人工智能还是一种面向高级用户的技术。

And I think that that, right now, AI has been a power user focused type of technologies.

Speaker 0

但这种情况正在迅速改变,现在每个人似乎都期望能够用自然语言提问。

That's very increasingly not the case, where everyone kinda, I think, has the expectation that you can ask natural language questions.

Speaker 0

你可以提出后续问题。

You can have a follow-up question.

Speaker 0

技术能够处理并理解这些需求。

Technology can handle that and can understand that.

Speaker 0

因此,我认为在未来,人们会越来越直接地输入信息。

And so I do think that increasingly in the future, people will just put in information.

Speaker 0

内容可能很短,也可能很长,可能是一张照片,也可能是一个上传的文档,上面写着:嘿。

It could be short, it could be long, it could be a photo, it could be uploaded document that says, hey.

Speaker 0

帮我理解一下这个。

Make sense of this.

Speaker 0

这对我来说太技术性了。

It's too technical for me.

Speaker 0

我不明白。

I don't get it.

Speaker 0

你可以把所有这些直接输入到谷歌搜索框里。

And you put all of that right into the Google search box.

Speaker 0

根据可用的工具,AI和类似AI聊天的体验可能最有助于帮你解决问题,但你也可能希望浏览一下,看看有什么可用的信息、图片,从而获得一种不同的体验。

And depending on the tools available, it's possible AI and an AI chat like experience is most helpful in helping you resolve your issue, but it's also possible that you wanna actually browse, see what's out there, see images, and and you have a different kind of experience.

Speaker 2

我想和你深入聊聊AI模式,结合你自己的经验——不仅是在谷歌的经历,还有你在Instagram领导消费类产品时的经验。

Well, I want to geek out with you on AI Mode and and based on your own experience, not only at Google, but also drawing connections to your experience leading consumer products at Instagram.

Speaker 2

我非常好奇的是,背后真正的成功指标是什么。

And one of the things that I'm very curious about is the real success metrics under the hood.

Speaker 2

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 2

比如,除了在一定数量的查询后有多少人找到了他们想要的内容之外,

Like beyond, okay, how many people find what they're looking for after x amount of queries.

Speaker 2

如果我们深入查看内部,对你来说,哪些是关键的指标?

If we were to look under the hood, what would be some of those leading indicators for you?

Speaker 0

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 0

我认为,每当你开发一个新产品时,无论我是在创业还是在开发新功能,无论是在Instagram还是在Google,这一点都成立。

I think whenever you build a new product, and this has been true whether I've been working on startups or working on new features, whether at Instagram or at Google.

Speaker 0

我的意思是,你最需要关注的是,有一群人,你为他们清晰地解决了某个需求。

I mean, I think that the main thing that you wanna look for is that there's a group of people, and there's a need that you're solving for them really clearly.

Speaker 0

而最好的体现方式,虽然听起来有点傻,但AI模式最初就是这样起步的。

And the best manifestation of that is first it sounds silly, but you like, even AI Mode started this way.

Speaker 0

我们把它提供给了500个人,其中很多是朋友和家人,我们可以与他们交谈并互动。

We gave it to 500 people, and many of them were friends and family, and there were people that we kinda could talk to and and engage with.

Speaker 0

所以,你知道,这就像是一个受信任的测试者环境,参与人数相对较少。

And so, you know, it's like it's like a trusted tester kind of environment where it's it's relatively small n.

Speaker 0

尽管听起来很疯狂,但对于像谷歌这样庞大的产品来说,每一个伟大的新事物都是从最初的十位用户开始的。

And as crazy as it sounds for a product as big as Google, every great new thing starts with the first 10 people that use it.

Speaker 0

如果连十个人都不喜欢,那你绝对不可能让十亿人喜欢它。

And if they don't like it and you can't get 10 people to like it, you're certainly not gonna get a billion people to like it.

Speaker 0

所以我们实际上是从一个非常小的群体开始的,而且是公司内部的人。

And so we actually started with a really small group and with people internally.

Speaker 0

第一个关键时刻是,人们从向我抱怨转变为告诉我它有多有用。

And the first kind of moment is when people went from complaining to me to telling me how useful it was.

Speaker 0

有一个明确的时刻,我当时就想:哇。

And there was a distinct moment where I was like, wow.

Speaker 0

大多数在走廊里找我聊天的人,或者我们早期邀请的几位外部用户,他们给我发反馈、报告问题时,都说:哇。

Most of the people who were talking to me in the hallway or, you know, we had a couple external people who were on it early who were sending me bugs and things it didn't do were like, wow.

Speaker 0

我突然意识到,我现在已经随时随地都在使用AI模式了,它已经变得完全自然了。

I just realized that I'm using AI mode all the time, and it's just, like, completely natural now.

Speaker 0

它解决了我以前根本无法从谷歌获得的十多个问题。

And it solved, like, 10 things I would have never been able to get from Google before.

Speaker 0

然后我们就真正开始看到这种变化了。

And I just started real we started seeing that.

Speaker 0

你也可以看看调查数据,看看有多少人表示他们喜欢并愿意回来使用。

You know, you can look at surveys as well and just the percentage of people who said that they would enjoy it and come back.

Speaker 0

你就会渐渐感觉到,这已经变成一种默认习惯了。

And we just kinda you just kinda see a sense that you're kinda default.

Speaker 0

你给的人似乎都喜欢它并愿意回来使用,而且这种情况还在改善。

The people you give it to seem to like it and come back, and and that's improving.

Speaker 0

然后你可能想更定量地验证这一点。

Then I think you kinda wanna verify that more quantitatively.

Speaker 0

从那时起,我们实际上在实验室进行了一个小规模的美国实验室发布,人们可以自愿参与。

So from then, we actually went to labs, and it was a very small US labs launch where people could opt into it.

Speaker 0

但我们并没有大力推广。

But we weren't really pushing it.

Speaker 0

我们并没有真正试图推广它。

We weren't really trying to market it.

Speaker 0

这纯粹只是为了了解人们对它的看法。

It was purely just to get a read on on what people thought.

Speaker 0

所以我们把它提供给了,比如说,成千上万甚至上百万的人。

And so we made it available, you know, to, let's say, the, you know, thousands or or hundreds of thousands of people and then millions.

Speaker 0

但当然,相对于使用谷歌的数十亿人来说,这仍然是一个相对较小的数字。

But, again, it's a relatively small number relative to the billions of people that use Google, of course.

Speaker 0

在这一点上,你实际上是在关注几件事。

And for there, you're really looking at a few things.

Speaker 0

我认为,当你有产品市场契合度时,会有一个明显的特征:如果你观察在第零天使用它的人群,并追踪他们在第30天、第60天、第90天的行为,你希望看到使用率先下降,然后趋于平稳,最终再次上升。

There's a distinct signature, I think, you have product market fit, where if you you look at the group of people who are using it, you know, on day zero and you follow them through day thirty, sixty, 90, and you do you wanna see that tapering, and you wanna see that curve flatten, and then eventually go back up again.

Speaker 0

这被称为J型曲线留存率,或者说是平缓型留存率。

So this is called j curve retention or kind of flat retention.

Speaker 0

这表明用户每天都有一定的概率愿意回来使用它,而如果产品随着时间推移不断改进,这种概率会不断增强。

And what that shows is that there's some probability per day that the user wants to come back and use it, and then if the product gets better over time, it's actually an intensifying probability.

Speaker 0

所以,有一部分人不再使用它,或者他们使用,但可能一周后才用一次;另一部分人六天后使用一次,还有一小部分人每天都使用。

And so some group of people don't use it again, or they do, but they use it maybe a week later, and then another group of people use it six days later, and a small group of people use it every single day.

Speaker 0

自然发生的情况是,使用频率更高的人越来越多,流失的人越来越少,最终你会看到回访用户的百分比趋于平稳,甚至略有上升。

And what'll happen naturally is more people use it more frequently, and less people bail, then you actually end up seeing flat or slightly up towards the end percentage of people coming back.

Speaker 0

这实际上就是你第一次真正实现市场契合的时刻。

And that's really your your first real market fit moment.

Speaker 0

接下来,我认为你会进入增长阶段:你将产品提供给特定群体,将其整合到系统中,然后你是否真的看到每周的用户数和使用量都比前一周有所增长,而无需做任何不自然的推动?

And then I think the the next phase is you kinda graduate into growth where, you know, you give it to a certain group of people, you put it in a system, and just are you actually seeing more users week over week and more usage week over week than the week before without really doing anything unnatural to get that?

Speaker 0

只是因为人们喜欢它。

It's just people like it.

Speaker 0

他们觉得它很有用。

They find it useful.

Speaker 0

我们在最近的财报中宣布,AI模式的日活跃用户数已达到约七千五百万。

You know, and we announced in the in in our recent earnings that we're at about 75,000,000 DAU on AI Mode.

Speaker 0

它发布得非常快,而且你必须主动点击才能使用它。

You know, it just just released really pretty quickly, and you have to kinda click in to use it.

Speaker 0

所以,显然有非常有前景的早期证据表明,人们从这些AI产品中获得了大量价值,你可以在此基础上继续发展。

So, you know, there's obviously very promising early early evidence that people are getting a lot of value from these AI products, and you kinda build from there.

Speaker 0

现在你有了这个基础,产品进入了一个更成熟的阶段,在这个阶段,你希望它对所有使用谷歌的人都真正有用。

And now you have this base, and then the product enters a more mature phase where, you know, you want it to be really useful to everyone who's using Google.

Speaker 2

我记得以前采访Instagram负责人时,他的一项关键指标是通过私信分享的图片或帖子,这比人们点击点赞或评论更能衡量成功,因为主动将内容分享给朋友显然需要更高的投入程度。

I I remember one of the interviews with the head of Instagram back in the day, one of the leading indicators for him was the the images or the posts that are being shared via DM as a much better measure of success than people clicking on likes or comments because the level of commitment for you to share something with a friend obviously is much higher that way.

Speaker 2

所以,在你们的情况下,我很好奇是否也有类似的非显性指标,能让你知道:嗯,这确实有效,甚至超越了传统的搜索模式。

So in your case, I'm I'm curious if there's any of of these additional parallels where it's like a non obvious metric for you to know that, okay, this is actually working and it's outperforming even the traditional search mode.

Speaker 0

我认为,这仍然取决于我们每天看到的问题数量,以及人们是否进行后续追问——我们发现,当能与AI进行对话时,人们进行后续追问的倾向明显更高。

You know, I think it still comes down to the amount of questions that we're seeing per day, and then maybe looking also at if people are following up, which we're seeing a much larger propensity to do, obviously, when you can have a conversation with AI.

Speaker 0

所以,关键在于这种参与的深度和持续的互动。

So it's, like, really that depth of engagement and the recurring engagement.

Speaker 0

我认为,这与Instagram不同,Instagram上刷屏很容易,你只需轻轻一划就能获得一次曝光。

So I think unlike Instagram where it's fairly easy to scroll, like, you just flick it a little and then you can get an impression.

Speaker 0

所以,如果你看像曝光量这样的指标,那还行。

So, like, if you look at something like impressions, like, you're okay.

Speaker 0

获得更多的曝光量挺酷的,但这并不需要用户做出很大的投入。

It's kinda cool to get more impressions, but it's not a huge user commitment.

Speaker 0

用户需要主动去操作,比如……

Like, the user someone needs to, like, go proactively.

Speaker 0

这就像是给朋友发消息,或者直接给谷歌发消息来获取信息。

It's like sending a message to a friend and, like, send a message to Google, basically, to get information.

Speaker 0

实际上,这相对于消费类产品或基于媒体的应用来说,门槛相当高。

It's a pretty high bar, actually, relative to, like, a consumption product or a consumption app, media based product.

Speaker 0

所以,我认为这仍然是一个相当有用的指标。

And so that is, I think, still a pretty useful metric.

Speaker 0

你观察一群人,然后基本上会说:好吧。

And you're looking at a group of people, and you basically say, okay.

Speaker 0

对于某个特定用户来说,他们是否随着时间推移使用得更频繁了?

For a given person, are they using it more intensely over time?

Speaker 0

我认为这实际上比仅仅让更多人浅尝辄止地使用更有指导意义。

And I think that actually has been the most instructive versus you get, like, a lot of people to use it a little bit.

Speaker 0

这通常会创造某种条件,我们在Instagram上也看到过类似情况:它最初规模很小但非常集中,然后随着时间推移,越来越多的人开始使用。

And that usually, I think, creates conditions, and we see how saw that in Instagram too, where it kinda started small but intense, and then, like, more and more people use it over time.

Speaker 2

另一个有趣的故事,我觉得和你在Instagram的背景有关,那就是Reels的推出。

Another interesting story, I think, connects with your some of your background at Instagram is the launch of Reels.

Speaker 2

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 2

或者你当时也参与了这个项目。

Or or you you were part of of that.

Speaker 2

我的意思是,你在其中扮演了关键角色。

I mean, you played a key role in that.

Speaker 2

当我思考这个功能或产品,以及现在的AI模式时,我认为你们都不是第一个推向市场的。

And as I think about that that feature or that product as well as now AI Mode, both cases, I would say you weren't the first one to market.

Speaker 2

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 2

Snapchat最初推出了类似的功能。

Snapchat originally launched similar feature.

Speaker 2

在AI模式的世界里,有些公司之前并没有搜索功能,因此他们的唯一选择就是AI模式。

In the AI Mode world, there are some companies that didn't have a search functionality before, so their only option was AI Mode.

Speaker 2

你是如何看待那些并非被迫进入市场,却依然能找到制胜之道的情况的呢?

How are you thinking about that those situations where you are not forced to market, but somehow then you find ways to win?

Speaker 0

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 0

我的意思是,这归根结底是关于为用户解决问题。

I mean, I think it's all about solving a problem for your users.

Speaker 0

我认为,在技术领域,常常会出现一些关键时机,用户的期望会发生巨大变化,并迅速成为新的标准。

And I think what happens quickly in technology is there's kind of opportune moments where user expectations shift a lot in terms of what they expect, and they become new standards quickly.

Speaker 0

所以对于Instagram的故事功能或短视频来说,这些其实都是非常基础的元素。

So for Stories on Instagram or short form video, I mean, these are they're fairly basic primitives.

Speaker 0

它就像一个三十秒或十秒的短视频,许多初创公司和其他企业已经在这一领域创造了出色的形式。

It's like a short thirty second video or a ten second video, and there's been a lot of innovation for startups and other companies that have created awesome formats in that space.

Speaker 0

但它本质上是一个信息流,Facebook有信息流,LinkedIn有信息流,我的DoorDash也有信息流。

But it's like a feed where Facebook had a feed, and then LinkedIn has a feed, and my DoorDash has a feed.

Speaker 0

所以,这逐渐变成了标准。

And so, like, it kinda becomes standards.

Speaker 0

因此,问题就不再是你们有没有一个信息流了。

And so it becomes less, do you have a feed or not?

Speaker 0

在当今世界,问题变成了:你们有没有使用人工智能?

In the world now, it's like, well, do you have AI or not?

Speaker 0

可以说,几乎所有东西都会具备某种程度的人工智能。

It's like, well, kind of everything's gonna have some level of AI.

Speaker 0

关键在于,人工智能如何让你们的产品变得出色?

It's gonna be, well, how does AI make your product amazing?

Speaker 0

但实际上,在很多情况下,它并没有。

And actually, in many cases, it doesn't.

Speaker 0

它可能会更慢、更差,或者更昂贵。

It might be slower or worse or more expensive.

Speaker 0

所以我认为人们需要认真思考并仔细审视这一点。

So I think people need to think about it and scrutinize for that.

Speaker 0

但对我们来说,想想Instagram的动态故事,人们已经越来越多地发布我们当时认为更像精选内容的方形照片。

But for us, in terms of, you know, think about Stories to Instagram, people are already posting more of what we thought were more highlights at the time, square kind of photos people would like.

Speaker 0

而动态故事为人们提供了一个释放压力的渠道,让他们可以更随意地发布内容,因为这些内容会消失,你也不会感受到点赞的压力,可以随意发布自己想发的东西。

And Stories created this pressure release valve for people to post more casually because they disappeared, and you weren't kind of didn't feel the pressure of a like, and you could just post what you wanted.

Speaker 0

你可以想发多少就发多少。

You could post as much as you wanted.

Speaker 0

你不会占满朋友动态信息流的整个空间。

You wouldn't take up a whole feed from your friend.

Speaker 0

它们只是会堆叠在信息流里。

It would just kinda stack in the feed.

Speaker 0

因此,这种格式最终成为了一种非常适合用户需求和Instagram定位的优秀形式。

So those are also turned out to be a great format that aligned naturally to the use case and job of what people wanted Instagram to be.

Speaker 0

当时我们还做了很多其他事情,让动态故事更适合Instagram。

And then there's a lot of things that we did at the time to make it great for Instagram.

Speaker 0

它内置了Instagram的创意工具。

It had Instagram creative tools.

Speaker 0

它带有一种略微提升的视觉美感,并且与私信和消息体验相契合——正如你之前提到的,人们已经习惯通过私信发送照片和其他转发内容,他们还可以回复。

It kinda had this slightly elevated kinda visual aesthetic, and it was kind at the DM and the messaging experience people were already using to send photos and other re reshares to your point earlier, sharing posts with each other, and they could write back.

Speaker 0

因此,这对Instagram来说是适用的。

And so it worked for Instagram.

Speaker 0

我认为每个人都需要思考这个产品对他们意味着什么。

And I think everyone would need to think about what that product meant for them.

Speaker 0

而关于我们如何理解AI搜索,我们的目标并不是创建另一个通用聊天机器人。

And the equivalent for, you know, how we think about AI search is we're not trying to create another general purpose chatbot.

Speaker 0

它们已经存在了。

They exist.

Speaker 0

它们很棒。

They're great.

Speaker 0

市面上已经有很多了。

There's plenty of them.

Speaker 0

但你知道,对于搜索来说,人们是带着信息需求来的,他们希望从谷歌那里获得非常具体的东西。

But and, you know, I think for for search, people are coming for informational needs, and they want very specific things from a Google.

Speaker 0

他们想购物。

They wanna shop.

Speaker 0

他们想了解地点。

They wanna understand location.

Speaker 0

他们想查看餐厅。

They wanna look at restaurants.

Speaker 0

他们想规划旅行。

They wanna know plan a trip.

Speaker 0

他们想了解世界对某个话题的看法。

They wanna, you know, they wanna understand what the world has to say about a certain topic.

Speaker 0

这些需求对谷歌来说非常具体,而我们相信AI可以让这些需求变得极其简单顺畅。

They're very specific to Google, and there's ways that we think AI can make those really easy and frictionless for people.

Speaker 0

因此,获取信息变得轻松许多,尤其是当这些信息在网页或其他地方根本不存在时。

So it's a lot more effortless to get information, especially when that information may not exist anywhere else, you know, on the web or elsewhere.

Speaker 0

所以我认为,正是如此,才催生了这样的产品——尽管AI模式还比较新,但它感觉很自然,因为人们本来就已经希望从谷歌获得这类问题的答案。

And so I think that, you know, that's kinda how you end up with products that I think even though, you know, AI Mode is relatively new, it feels natural because people are kinda want these kinds of questions out of Google already.

Speaker 0

事实上,我们确实观察到,在使用AI概览(即顶部的小型AI预览)时,人们提出的问题越来越复杂,甚至会在提问末尾加上‘AI’这个词来触发它。

And in case, and in fact, we actually saw this where in a with AI overviews, which was the little AI previews at the top, people were asking harder and harder questions, and they were actually adding the AI word at the end to to trigger it.

Speaker 0

因此,这实际上是一种潜在的需求,就像我在Instagram上感受到的一样。

And so it's actually this latent demand in the same way that I felt like on Instagram.

Speaker 0

我认为人们其实希望能在动态中多发一些内容,但他们总是犹豫不决、反复斟酌。

I think people wish they could just post more on their feed, but they were always sitting there scrutinizing.

Speaker 0

哦,我不想显得太奇怪,连续在Instagram上发九条内容。

Oh, I don't wanna, like, be weird and put nine things direct on Instagram in a row.

Speaker 0

别人会以为我太渴望点赞之类的。

People are gonna think I'm too hungry for likes or whatever.

Speaker 0

所以大家并没有更深入地参与互动。

And so it kinda just didn't engage more deeply.

Speaker 0

但当动态故事功能推出后,哦,好吧。

And then when Stories came in, like, oh, fine.

Speaker 0

可以随便发了。

Can just do it.

Speaker 0

我想发在哪里都可以。

I can just post it wherever I want.

Speaker 0

谷歌的情况也是一样。

And same thing for Google.

Speaker 0

就好像,哦终于,我可以把我想要完成的这件事直接告诉谷歌,让谷歌帮我搞定一切。

It's like, oh, finally, I can just ask this exact thing I was looking to do, put it into Google, and have Google figure it out for me.

Speaker 0

所以这项功能和谷歌的各类使用场景都很契合,而其他产品呢,我觉得它们会聚焦在别的方向上。

And and so it feels natural to Google's use cases, whereas, you know, I think other products will focus elsewhere.

Speaker 2

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 2

你说得没错。

You're right.

Speaker 2

而且我认为,部分这类潜在的新应用场景会迅速商品化。

And I and I think some of these potentially new use cases become commoditized very quickly.

Speaker 2

我们眼下就正在AI领域见证这种情况。

I mean, we're seeing this with AI.

Speaker 2

就比如,我甚至都不会去纠结这到底是不是AI搜索。

Like, I don't even think if this is an AI search or not.

Speaker 2

我现在已经习惯了只用很少的提示词就能得到我想要的答案,基本上是这样。

I just I'm just now used to getting my answer with way less prompts, basically.

Speaker 2

有些时候我都能偷会儿懒了,因为我知道这些系统对我了解得足够多,它们会自动补全我要输入的提示词,至少也能用更聪明的方式接下去交互。

In in some cases, I can allow myself to be lazy because I know that the system knows so much about me that they are auto auto complete my own prompt or at least follow-up in in in smarter ways.

Speaker 2

那如果我们展望未来——我不是说十年之后那种长远的未来,而是短期的未来——搜索领域接下来会有什么发展呢?

So as you think about the the future, and I'm not talking ten years or anything like that, like, short term future, what is next in terms of search?

Speaker 0

嗯,我觉得有几件事让我挺期待的。

Well, I think there's a a few things that I'm excited about.

Speaker 0

你懂的,其中一件就是我认为搜索领域迎来了一个机会,可以变得比其他现有方案都要博学实用。

You know, one is there's an opportunity for search, I think, to be just so knowledgeable relative to, you know, what else is possible.

Speaker 0

举个例子,搜索凭借它对互联网上所有内容的接入能力和感知度,能把你和任何内容都连接起来,这样你就能深入钻研、学习知识,接触到各式各样的观点。我觉得知识真正的立足之处就在于此——你未必一定要全盘采信人工智能给出的说法,而是想要和真实的人建立连接。

So for instance, search, because of the access and and and awareness of what is on the Internet and can connect you to any piece of content so you can go deeper, learn, see a diversity of perspectives, I think that's where really where knowledge lives is really like, you don't really wanna take an AI's word for it necessarily, but you wanna connect to people.

Speaker 0

你想要和可靠的信息建立连接。

You wanna connect to information.

Speaker 0

所以你打算买点东西。

So you're trying to buy something.

Speaker 0

人们是怎么评价它的?

What are people saying about it?

Speaker 0

你如何理解这一点?

How do you understand that?

Speaker 0

评论怎么样?

What have the reviews been?

Speaker 0

创作者们是怎么说它的?

What are creators saying about it?

Speaker 0

价格是多少?

And what's the price?

Speaker 0

而且,这个价格准确吗?真实吗?能实时更新到最近十秒的情况吗?

And, like, is that price accurate and real to update it as to the last, you know, ten seconds?

Speaker 0

有没有优惠?这个优惠相对于它的历史价格来说划算吗?

And is there a deal, and is that deal good relative to its history?

Speaker 0

这些操作需要你进行数十次搜索。

These are like this would take you, like, dozens of searches.

Speaker 0

没有人会做到这种程度,也许除了你最昂贵的那些购买决策之外。

No one would have done this to to to that level, maybe except for the more the most expensive purchases you would make.

Speaker 0

但我们其实可以直接做到这一点,后台的AI每天都在通过查询扩散和推理为用户完成这些工作。

But we could just do that, and the AI under the hood is actually doing that with query fan out and how it's reasoning for users every day.

Speaker 0

但我认为你可以把这一点提升到下一个层次。

But I think you can take that to the next level.

Speaker 0

所以它真正深度整合了所有这些实时存在的信息,并为用户理解这些信息。

So it's really deeply integrating into all of this real time knowledge that exists and making sense of that for the user.

Speaker 0

所以这是一大要点。

So it's like that's one big thing.

Speaker 0

另一个是人们如何与它互动。

The other one is how people interact with it.

Speaker 0

它现在仍然很像是:嘿。

It's very much still, hey.

Speaker 0

我正在网上。

I'm, like, on online.

Speaker 0

我想去问问谷歌这个问题。

I wanna go, like, ask Google this question.

Speaker 0

但越来越多地,我们看到了这一点。

But increasingly, we're seeing it.

Speaker 0

你知道,我开车时,想直接开启实时对话,和同一个模型交流。

You know, I'm driving, and I wanna go live and just have a conversation with the same model.

Speaker 0

因此,交互方式正迅速转变为能在各种不同环境中灵活使用的模式。

So the modality is very quickly shifting to being one that's flexible in all these different environments.

Speaker 0

它会伴随你在手机上。

So it's with you on your phone.

Speaker 0

所以,如果你截屏或在安卓上,可以圈选进行搜索。

So if you screenshot or if you're on Android, you circle to search.

Speaker 0

AI就如伴侣般陪伴在你身边。

You have the AI right there with you as a companion.

Speaker 0

如果你使用 Chrome,现在可以连接到 AI 模式,获得一种非常棒的体验,它能理解页面上下文并帮助你处理相关内容。

And if you're in Chrome, you can connect to AI mode now and have this really nice experience where it can understand the page context and help you with that.

Speaker 0

就像我说的,如果你在车里,现在可以使用 Google 应用,并进行实时搜索。

If you're the car, like I said, you can use the Google app now, and you can use search live.

Speaker 0

你只需问一句:嘿。

And you can just ask, hey.

Speaker 0

这个运动队现在怎么样?

What's going on with this sports team?

Speaker 0

我听说他们有球员受伤了。

I heard there was some injury.

Speaker 0

给我讲讲具体情况。

Tell me about it.

Speaker 0

那这对我的幻想球队有什么影响?

Well, what's the implication for my fantasy team?

Speaker 0

帮我查一下。

Go research that for me.

Speaker 0

它会自己去弄清楚,让你在回家的路上就能安排你的幻想球队。

It'll like, go figure that out, and you can have a can play on your fantasy team on the drive home.

Speaker 0

第二个主要主题是,它真的无处不在。

And so the second big theme is that it's it's really ubiquitous.

Speaker 0

第三个是,我觉得它真的显得可行。

And the third is I think that it feels really like it's possible.

Speaker 0

它是为你量身打造的,能为你做事。

It's made for you and can do things for you.

Speaker 0

人们已经讨论了很多关于它如何变得具有主动性,我们已经宣布正在大力开发这两类系统工具,以及个性化体验,让你拥有一个能帮你完成任务的系统,比如帮你预订餐厅、告诉你信息,而且非常了解你的喜好。

And, you know, people have talked a lot about how it can become Agentic, and, you know, we we've announced that we're working a lot on both these kinds of system tools and also these personalization experiences where, you know, for you to have a system that can get stuff done, book restaurant reservations for you, tell you what's but knows your tastes well.

Speaker 0

搜索对你个人而言可以非常有用,这是很多年前根本不存在的——比如你搜索今晚约会吃饭的地方,得到的信息和别人搜索时大体相同。

You know, search can be really useful for you specifically in a way that really just didn't exist many years ago, where if you search for where to get you know, eat and for date night tonight, you get largely the same information than someone searching.

Speaker 0

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 0

显然,它可能在地理上有限制,但假设走廊那头有个人,和我完全不同。

Obviously, maybe it's geographically constrained, but let's say someone down the hall who's totally different from me.

Speaker 0

而现在,这种情况不再成立了。

And now that's no longer true.

Speaker 0

它真的让我感觉是为我量身打造的,而且深刻理解我。

It really feels like it's for me, and it deeply understands me.

Speaker 0

所以,这些是我对搜索未来发展方向感到兴奋的几个关键方面。

So those are a couple kind of big pieces that I'm excited about in terms of where where search is heading.

Speaker 2

我想要重点强调最后一个——智能代理体验,因为我已经在购物、餐厅预订和航班安排中看到一些早期版本。

I'm going to double down on the light latest one, the Agentic experience, because I've seen some early versions in shopping, in restaurant reservations, in in flights.

Speaker 2

但不知为何,它仍然感觉需要大量人为干预。

But for some reason, it still feels like there's so much human in the loop.

Speaker 2

所以我想知道,从你的角度来看,要让这种体验更加自主,需要满足哪些条件?

So curious to know from your perspective, what needs to be true in order for this experience to be more self sufficient?

Speaker 2

当然,人类仍然可以在关键时刻介入,但我们可以让机器更强大一些,让它让我们的生活更轻松。

So, of course, the human can still be in the loop for critical moments, but, like, we can empower the machine a little more so it can make our life a little easier.

Speaker 0

我认为在这方面有几个关键因素。

Well, I think there's a few things with this.

Speaker 0

我的意思是,这还处于早期阶段,首先。

I mean, it's early, first of all.

Speaker 0

我认为计算机与计算机之间的交互、代理式连接仍是一个早期的协议。

Like, I think computer to computer interaction, agentic connection is still an early protocol.

Speaker 0

就其无缝获取信息的能力而言,这整体上仍是一个年轻的平台。

I think just in terms of its ability to seamlessly tap into information, it's just it's a it's a young platform overall.

Speaker 0

所以其中一部分是让这个系统真正运行起来,因为这确实需要时间。

So one part of it is just making the thing work, because it it does take time.

Speaker 0

我认为在某些情况下,它可能花费了过多的时间,而且你还希望它每次都能正常工作。

I think it probably takes a fair probably too much time in some cases, and you also want to work every time.

Speaker 0

但让我们假设我们生活在一个稍微未来的时代,那时这些事情变得更简单、更成熟、更快。

But let's assume that we live in the future slightly in the future where these things are easier, more mature, and faster.

Speaker 0

实际上,我认为这个领域中的很多问题在于更深入地理解你,以及帮助你以正确的方式理解在流程中保留你参与的潜在考量,而不是完全将你排除在外。

I actually think a lot of the problem in this space is more in understanding you deeply, and in helping you understand the potential considerations with actually you in the loop in the right way versus fully taking you out of the loop.

Speaker 0

比如,当你考虑购买某样东西时,整个过程中的大部分其实都发生在考量阶段。

Like, if you think about buying something, so much of the process is actually in the consideration phase of that.

Speaker 0

虽然在最后输入信用卡信息有点烦人,但我觉得这并不是最大的问题。

And while it's kind of annoying to put your credit card in at the end, it's actually not, I think, the largest problem.

Speaker 0

我认为,如果人们想买一台电视,买电视最大的问题并不是付款。

I think a lot of people if you wanna buy a TV, I don't think that the largest problem of buying a TV is paying for it.

Speaker 0

我觉得真正的问题是:这台电视是什么尺寸?我的房间有多大?

I think it's actually like, well, what's the TV, and how big is my room?

Speaker 0

如果我拍下我的房间,电视能放得下吗?

And if I take a picture of my space, is the TV gonna fit there?

Speaker 0

还有,我该怎么把它挂起来?

And how who how do I hang it up?

Speaker 0

另外,如果我想把它装在墙上,谁能帮我安装呢?

And by the way, if I wanna mount it, who could mount that for me?

Speaker 0

这些才是关键问题,假如我只是想买台电视,而这个系统能让我拍一张客厅的照片。

Like, those are the things that if I if I just if I just was like, I wanna buy a TV, and maybe the thing was like, take a picture of your living room.

Speaker 0

你拍下客厅的照片。

You take a picture of your living room.

Speaker 0

然后呢,好吧。

And it's like, okay.

Speaker 0

而且它了解我其他的购买记录。

Well and it understands other purchases I've made.

Speaker 0

它了解这段历史,基本上会说:嘿。

It understands this history, And it basically says, hey.

Speaker 0

这是每款电视的摘要。

Here's the TLDR for each of these TVs.

Speaker 0

这是你可以了解详情的地方。

Here's where you can read about it.

Speaker 0

这是你可以查阅的评价。

Here's reviews you could research.

Speaker 0

顺便说一下,这些是实时价格。

And by the way, these are the live prices.

Speaker 0

现在是网络星期一或者刚过不久。

It's Cyber Monday or recently.

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Speaker 0

根据我分析的价格历史,这确实是个很划算的交易。

Based on the price history that I analyzed, this is, like, a legitly good deal.

Speaker 0

而且像这位本地商家就可以帮你安装。

And like this person who's a local business could install it for you.

Speaker 0

你要我去做这件事吗?

Do you want me to go do that?

Speaker 0

而且答案可能是:不用了。

And it's possible that the answer is like, no.

Speaker 0

我其实想要一台小一点的电视,或者你想做个调整。

I actually want a smaller TV or you'd wanna modify it.

Speaker 0

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 0

然后你就想自己去处理。

And then you'd wanna to do it.

Speaker 0

所以我只是把它看作一种极大的优势。

So I just view it as, like, super leverage.

Speaker 0

这就像是你有一个非常了解你、能为你做很多事情的东西,你只需要稍微干预一下。

It's like you had this thing that knew you so well and could do things for you that you just need the littlest bit of intervention.

Speaker 0

对。

Like, yeah.

Speaker 0

我想要这台电视。

I want this TV.

Speaker 0

也许它还能预测你未来也需要一台电视。

That's like all maybe it predicts you need a TV in the future too.

Speaker 0

我不知道,但我认为短期内不会发生。

I don't know, but I don't see that anytime soon.

Speaker 0

然后你稍微调整一下,就完成了。

And then you just zhuzh it a little bit, and it's done.

Speaker 0

在以前的世界里,这可能需要你花上好几个小时来做研究。

And that would have taken you, like, hours of research kind of in the prior prior world.

Speaker 0

所以,这仅仅是我个人的看法。

So that's that's just personally how I see it.

Speaker 0

我觉得人们有点着迷于计算机能够代劳很多事情,但我更倾向于思考哪些才是真正有用的。

I think people are a bit enamored with the fact that computers can do a lot of things on your behalf, but I I kinda think a little bit more about, like, what's really useful.

Speaker 0

如果你认真考虑自己的时间,就会明白它对那些最繁重的任务有多大的帮助。

And if you really think about your time, how it can be helpful for those things that are the most burdensome.

Speaker 2

这项新功能如何影响你的商业模式?

How does that new functionality affect your own business model?

Speaker 2

意思是,现在你能让用户更深入地参与他们的决策过程。

Meaning, now you are able to allow the user to go further into their decision making process.

Speaker 2

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 2

所以这不仅仅是你提供信息,然后让他们选择。

So it's not just you present information and let them choose.

Speaker 0

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 0

我的意思是,我认为这是谷歌已经做过的所有事情的自然延伸。

I mean, I think it it's a natural extension of everything Google's already done.

Speaker 0

我的意思是,如果你想想人们今天做什么,首先,这是一种扩展。

I mean, if you think about what, you know, people do today, first of all, it's expansionary.

Speaker 0

比如,我以前没法拍张照片然后问关于我房间的事。

Like, I couldn't take a picture and ask about my my room.

Speaker 0

但今天,你可以轻松做到这一点,它甚至可能为我测量空间。

But today, it's you could easily do that, and it could probably measure the space for me.

Speaker 0

因此,你获得了更多的互动、更多的使用频率,以及为用户带来更大的价值,因为你能为他们做更多事。

And so you get more interactions, more usage, and more value to the user because you can do more for them.

Speaker 0

第二点是,从理论上讲,我向谷歌提供了更多有用的信息。

The second is, theoretically, I'm giving, you know, a lot more information for Google to be helpful.

Speaker 0

因此,要理解产品规格,或者理解我想要购买的东西——我以前可能只是搜索一下‘平板电视’。

And so to understand the spec or to understand what I'm trying to buy with the I may have before just Googled, like, flat screen TVs.

Speaker 0

你知道的?

You know?

Speaker 0

比如,那是一种典型的查询。

Like, that's kind of like a typical query.

Speaker 0

但在一个谷歌拥有所有这些宝贵上下文的世界里——包括你确切的需求、尺寸、空间、参数、品味,以及你过去提到过的各种考量——这种方式能自然地帮助你购买这件商品,因为许多购物旅程本质上都是商业性质的。

But in a world where you Google has all of this incredible context in terms of exactly what you need, the size, the space, the parameters, taste, you know, different considerations you may have said in the past, is a very nice and natural way to help you buy that thing in that in this example, given many journeys are, you know, commercial in nature.

Speaker 0

但这些只是自然的延伸,就像现在如果你搜索电视,可能会看到关于黑色星期五或网络星期一的优惠广告。

But these are natural extensions just like how now if you were to ask for TVs, you might see an ad that has a great deal for Black Friday or for Cyber Monday.

Speaker 0

在人工智能的世界里,情况完全一样。

In the AI world, is exactly the same.

Speaker 0

你还可以告诉你,这个电视优惠也给你准备好了。

You could say, also have got you this TV deal.

Speaker 0

你知道的?

You know?

Speaker 0

我的意思是,你几乎可以做任何事。

Like, I mean, you could do anything.

Speaker 2

所以当你思考如何分配自己和团队的精力去应对这些不同举措时,有些看起来是全新的,就像有些人所说的从零到一的创新,但你同时也需要保护和增强核心业务。

So as you think about allocating your own efforts, your team's efforts into all these different initiatives, some of them feel new and of like what some people would call zero to one, but then you also have a core business to protect and augment.

Speaker 2

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 2

而且你也曾经是个创始人。

So and you you've been a founder as well.

Speaker 2

你知道,当你是初创公司时,你的竞争优势基本上就是速度。

And you know that when you're a startup, your competitive advantage is pretty much speed.

Speaker 2

当你变得更大时,你的竞争优势之一应该是渠道和数据。

When you are much larger, your competitive advantage of one of them should be distribution and maybe data.

Speaker 2

那么,你如何在保护核心业务的同时,仍然保持惊人的速度来推动未来?

So how are you able to still maintain crazy speed to push for the future while protecting your core business?

Speaker 0

我的意思是,其中一个答案是,模型已经变得如此强大,添加新功能变得容易多了。

I mean, think one answer is that the models have gotten so good that it's a lot easier to add new functionality.

Speaker 0

因此,我认为你正看到功能数量的激增,因为以前需要专门定制模型调优或训练后处理的事情,现在你只需给模型一些信息和上下文,它就能自动完成。

And so I think you're seeing this ramp up in the amount of features impossible because something that would need, like, special custom model tuning or post training, you can just give the model some information and some context, and it'll just do it.

Speaker 0

所以我认为,其中一部分原因是,现在构建和尝试新事物变得容易多了,因为构建AI所需的工作量比以往任何时候都少。

So I think it's all it's it's one one part of the story is it's much easier to build and to try new things because it's less work to build an AI than ever before.

Speaker 0

第二点是,我认为作为创始人、作为领导者,每个人都需要思考:什么是最重要的一件事?如果我们做对了,这可能是一个五到十年的增长、价值和助人机会。

The second is, I think, like, as a founder, as a leader, everyone needs to think, you know, what's gonna be the most important thing that if we get it right, this is potentially a five or ten year opportunity of growth, of value, of helpfulness that we can give people.

Speaker 0

如果我们有一个其他领域没有达到我们预期的效果,但还算可以,可能也不会造成太大影响。

Whereas if we kind of had some other area that didn't go exactly as well as we wanted it to, but it was okay, probably wouldn't make too much of a difference.

Speaker 0

所以,这是一方面。

So that's, like, one thing.

Speaker 0

第二点是,我能独特地帮助什么,而组织或团队可能不会自己去追求,因为这很难、有风险,或者跨越组织的方式很不自然?

And the second thing is what can I uniquely help with that the organization or the team wouldn't potentially pursue themself, either because it's hard, it's risky, it traverses the organization in a way that's unnatural?

Speaker 0

当这两者交汇时,就是最好的机会——既有巨大的未来价值,又不会自然发生,因为这可能以奇怪的方式跨越组织,或者团队知道,这是一次转型,而作为初创公司,这并非团队最初想法的一部分。

And those are the best opportunities where those two intersect, where there's a lot of opportunity for future value and then also where it wouldn't naturally occur because, like, this maybe cuts across the org in weird ways or the team you know, it's a pivot, and if you're a startup, and it's not how the team has thought about their wed to their kind of first idea.

Speaker 0

我认为,正是在这种情况下,领导层的介入最有用。

And that's where I think leadership intervention is the most useful.

Speaker 0

所以,这就是我至少对专注力的理解。

So that's how I at least think of focus.

Speaker 0

而且,你知道,最终并不是每件事都需要同等程度的关注和投入。

And, you know, and then eventually, not everything is in its in its needs a level of attention and and love.

Speaker 0

一旦某件事达到一定的成熟度,维持它就容易多了,而启动它通常却非常困难。

Like, once the thing gets to be at some level of maturity, it's a lot easier to maintain it versus getting things going is usually really hard.

Speaker 0

所以我认为,对于领导者和创始人来说,关键在于找到那些正在运作并为人们创造价值的引擎,而让这些引擎启动起来是最困难的工作。

So I think for leaders and founders, it's usually about finding those engines that are working and creating value for people, and getting those up and running is the hardest work.

Speaker 2

而对于你来说,作为一名前创始人,我也是一个创始人。

And for you, I mean, as a as a former founder, I'm a founder as well.

Speaker 2

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 2

所以我深知深入细节的重要性。

So I know how important it is to be in the details.

Speaker 2

在很多方面,我坚信这一点:现身现场、走进厨房,与团队一起烹饪,能传递一种关怀,而不仅仅是压力,这种关怀是会传染的。

I believe in in that in many ways, and showing face, being in the kitchen, cooking with the team applies a level of care, not just pressure that it's contagious.

Speaker 2

所以当你无法亲临所有厨房,而厨房又太多的时候,

So when you cannot be in all the kitchens, you have way too many.

Speaker 2

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 2

那么,你该如何选择这些投资方向,以确保领导者仍能给予足够的关注,同时又让其他人、其他领导者也能自主做出他们的决策呢?

So how do you pick those bets to ensure that there's still that level of attention by the leader while, obviously, you also let other people, other leaders place their own bets?

Speaker 0

是的

Yeah.

Speaker 0

我的意思是,这又回到了我之前提到的框架。

I mean, think it comes back to the framework I was mentioning before.

Speaker 0

当你选择要专注的领域时,我会把它们看作是我真正要培育的项目。

And when you pick the area you wanna focus, I kinda think of them as projects like I'm really gonna nurture.

Speaker 0

我们会和团队见面。

And, like, we'll meet with the team.

Speaker 0

我每周会和团队见面好几次,如果需要的话甚至每天见面,直到这件事走上正轨。

I'll meet with the team multiple times a week, potentially daily if it needs to happen until that thing feels like it's on track.

Speaker 0

并且尽量以共同创造的方式进行。

And try to do it in a way that feels like co creation.

Speaker 0

我不认为这在于让团队中的领导者难以发挥影响力,而是感觉我们是在一起打造这个东西。

I don't think it's about, you know, making it challenging for leaders on your team to, you know, have influence, but it feels much more like we're building this thing together.

Speaker 0

这些工作小组、虚拟团队,当你在像AI模型这样的项目上冲刺时,感觉层级没那么明显,也不会出现一层层审批、反对、再审批的流程。

And these these working groups, these virtual teams, if you're sprinting on something like an AI mode, it feels a lot less like there's levels of hierarchy, and there's, like, an approval, then another approval, and unapproval, and another approval.

Speaker 0

要推出这样的东西,就像是你有一个庞大的协作团队,有些人负责关键部分,大家聚在一起,交流进展。

To get something like that out, it's kinda like you have this big coworking team, and you have some people steering key aspects of it, and you all come together, and you explain how it's going.

Speaker 0

而且,是的,你需要一个领导者来理清头绪,但我认为最终会形成一种更协作的氛围,这会带来很大帮助。

And and like, yes, you need a leader to kinda cut through, but I think it ends up being this more collaborative vibe, and that ends up helping a lot.

Speaker 0

每个人都正在做一件非常重要的事情。

It's like everyone's doing a really important thing.

Speaker 0

在这个工作组里,比如负责项目语音和音频部分的人,他们会把这一块做到极致,做到最细致。

And within that working group, people are like like, so whoever's working on, let's say, the voice and audio component, right, of that project, like, they're gonna make that incredible and be the most detailed in that particular piece.

Speaker 0

当你把所有部分整合起来时,我认为领导者必须深入细节,这就是为什么你必须谨慎选择项目。

And then when you bring it together, I think you have enough level of I do think leaders need to be deeply in the details, and so that's why you have to pick projects carefully.

Speaker 0

当你选定一个项目时,作为领导者,你必须深刻理解它。

And when you pick a project, you as a leader, you deeply understand it.

Speaker 0

但你不可能了解每个工程师所负责的每一个细节,这显然是不可能的。

But you're never gonna know every single detail down to the level of every engineer, obviously.

Speaker 0

因此,总会有一定的空间。

And so there's always that room.

Speaker 0

你希望这种协作感觉是,离工作最近的人对它了解得最深。

You want kinda it to feel like this this collaboration where the person closest to the work knows the most about it.

Speaker 2

产品文化是我非常感兴趣的另一个话题,因为每个公司都有自己的工作方式。

Product culture is one of the topics that also are very interesting to me because every company in a way has their own ways of working.

Speaker 2

而你,你见识过Instagram。

And for you, you've seen Instagram.

Speaker 2

你创建过自己的文化。

You've you've created your own cultures.

Speaker 2

你现在已经是第二次加入谷歌了。

You've been part of now Google twice.

Speaker 2

你过去在不同文化环境中的经历,现在如何影响了你在谷歌的建设方式?

How did your previous experiences in different cultural environments are now affecting how you build at Google?

Speaker 0

你知道,这很有趣。

You know, it's interesting.

Speaker 0

我觉得塑造我思维方式的很多东西,其实是以创始人的视角去思考,你知道,说起来很简单,但当你真正问自己,作为创始人到底意味着什么?

Like, I think a lot of what shaped my thinking is is really thinking as a founder and thinking as, you know, it's it's kind of obvious to say, but I think when you kind of ask, like, what does it actually mean as a founder?

Speaker 0

那到底是什么意思?

What like, what is that?

Speaker 0

意思是,没人会替你解决这个问题,你必须成为那个在每个时刻决定做什么最有用的人。

Kinda means that, like, no one else is gonna solve the problem, and you need to be the force of, like, what is gonna be the most useful thing for you to go do any moment?

Speaker 0

而且这其实是递归的。

And it kinda works recursively.

Speaker 0

所以,领导者从他们的高度和视角来思考,而每个正在构建东西的个人也会从自己的角度来思考。

So, like, the leader thinks about it from their altitude level and perspective, but then every individual who's building something thinks about it from their world.

Speaker 0

比如,即使你只是在处理我们举的音频这个例子,他们也会想,好吧。

Like, even if you're working just on as we're using this example of audio, you know, they're thinking, okay.

Speaker 0

我做出的哪些决策、哪些行动,才能带来最好的音频体验?

Well, what are the decisions I'm making that what are the moves I have to make to make the best audio experience?

Speaker 0

他们完全承担起这个结果,而不是说,是的。

And they're, like, owning that outcome fully instead of being like, yeah.

Speaker 0

唉,这很难,你知道的,哦,我还得和另一个团队合作,那也很困难。

Well, it was hard, and, you know, oh, I had to work with this other team, and that was hard.

Speaker 0

一切都很难。

Everything's hard.

Speaker 0

这就像一种近乎自然的力量,我想这是拥有明确目标并清楚知道自己认为应该是什么的结合。

It's like this kind of just force of nature of I guess it's a combination of having an outcome and being clear about what you think it should be.

Speaker 0

所以你基本上会有一种观点,即你的产品应该是什么,增长来自哪里,价值是如何创造的,并且专注于这一点。

So you kinda have that point of view of, like, what your product should be, where the growth is coming, where the value is being created, and being really focused on that.

Speaker 0

然后你就会被逼着去推动它前进,把它完成。

And then you're, like, kinda forced to just, like, driving, moving it forward, getting it done.

Speaker 0

说到底,没有任何借口。

Like, not there is no excuse, ultimately.

Speaker 0

你对结果负责。

Like, you own the outcome.

Speaker 0

高度的内在控制感,是人们讨论过的一种表述方式。

Like, a high internal locus of control is, like, one way of framing it that people have spoken about.

Speaker 0

你掌控着自己的命运。

Like, you're in control of your destiny.

Speaker 0

你就得自己想办法解决。

Like, you just need to figure it out.

Speaker 0

我认为这些要素最能体现我所参与过的团队的成功,无论是在初创公司还是大公司。

I think those pieces feel like they most correspond to success from teams I've worked on, both at startups and big companies.

Speaker 0

它们几乎适用于所有情况。

They kinda transcend all things.

Speaker 0

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 0

有些人就是那种,把球给我,我知道我们该做什么。

There's people who are kinda like, give me the ball, and I know where what we need to do.

Speaker 0

不管你是不是创始人,或者你在大公司里,我都见过这种态度在各种情境下都有效。

And and, like, whether you're a founder or you're at a big company, I've seen the that that kinda attitude just kinda works in all of these different contexts.

Speaker 0

你对什么是好的、什么是坏的有自己的判断,而且你的判断与现实一致。

And you have a view of, like, what's good and what's bad, and that view is in sync with the world.

Speaker 0

你正在与用户的反馈、团队成员的反馈建立联系,每周不断迭代,让产品变得越来越好,直到达成目标。

It's like you're getting in touch with the feedback loop of your users, of your people, of the team, and you're, like, just looping on making it better and better each week until that outcome is achieved.

Speaker 0

而你就是推动这一切发生的那股小小力量。

And, like, you're that little force making that happen.

Speaker 0

如果每个人都这样,你们一定会打造出出色的东西。

And if everyone does that, you're gonna build great stuff.

Speaker 2

你知道吗,当一些人听到像你这样的领导者讲话时,他们会说,天啊,你们来自谷歌、Instagram。

You know, and when some people hear leaders like you talk, like, oh my god, they come from Google, Instagram.

Speaker 2

当然,他们肯定会赢。

Of course, they're going to win.

Speaker 2

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 2

因为他们拥有庞大的分发平台,以及无与伦比的人才和资本资源。

Because they have these large distribution platforms, incredible access to talent and capital.

Speaker 2

所以如果一件事不成功,他们会去找别的事,最终总会有一件成功。

And so if something doesn't work, they'll find something else and eventually that that will work.

Speaker 2

因此,我总是试图从这里学习的是那些巨大的失败。

So one of the things that I always try to to learn from here is colossal disasters.

Speaker 2

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 2

比如那些你没有赢的情况,你从这些经历中学到了什么,最终找到了获胜的方法。

Like situations where you didn't win And kind of what you actually learned from those experiences to then eventually finds find ways to win.

Speaker 2

所以我很想知道,你在谷歌经历这场人工智能之旅时,甚至在之前在Instagram的时候,有哪些重大的失败帮助你提升了自己?

So curious to know as you go through this AI journey at Google or even before at Instagram, what are some of those colossal disasters that help you improve?

Speaker 0

你知道吗,有趣的是?

Well, you know what's interesting?

Speaker 0

我参与过很多彻底失败的项目。

I worked on plenty of projects that have straight up failed.

Speaker 0

这些项目虽然有点意思,但我认为它们不如那些看似失败却最终成功的项目更有启发性。

And those are somewhat interesting, but I actually think less interesting than the projects that failed.

Speaker 0

我们本可以就此放弃,但我们坚持了下来,最终它们变得成功了。

And we could have just stopped, but then we kept going and they became successful.

Speaker 0

因为尽管我希望我参与的每个项目都能有这种特质,但这是不可能的。

Because that's actually even though I wish every project I work on had that signature, it's impossible.

Speaker 0

比如,我记得好像在哪里看到过,有人说你需要创办三家初创公司,才有一家成功的概率,或者要四家,因为实在太难了。

Like, I saw on so I I wanna say I saw somewhere about someone saying something like you need to do three startups to have the probability of one working or four startups because it's just so hard.

Speaker 0

某种程度上,你必须坚持下去,直到时间耗尽,然后你再带着差不多的团队重新来一次。

Like, you you have to just keep going at some level and run out of time, and then you kinda do it kind of again with a slightly similar team.

Speaker 0

所以,我觉得有趣的是,每个人都有一个由多次尝试组成的组合,总会有几次完全打偏了。

And so, like, I I actually think what's interesting is, like, everyone has this portfolio of shots on goal, and, like, you're always gonna have a couple just swings and misses.

Speaker 0

但如果你的态度是:我会一直尝试,直到做对为止,并且给予足够的时间,其中一些最终真的会成功。

But if your attitude is, I'm gonna try to keep going until I get it right and you give it enough time, some of them actually win.

Speaker 0

然后有趣的是,你只需要那么一两个大赢家,而所有人都只谈论这些大赢家。

And then it's funny because you need just a couple of those big winners, and everyone just talks about those big winners.

Speaker 0

这才是真正重要的。

That's all that really matters.

Speaker 0

这有点像长打率和打击率的区别。

It's kind of the slugging percentage versus batting average.

Speaker 0

我们当时在Instagram和那里的领导团队也讨论过这个概念,那是一个非常关键的想法。

And and I think that we talked about that at Instagram with Instagram leadership at the time, and that was a really crucial concept.

Speaker 0

举个例子,Instagram的‘亲密好友’功能在动态和Reels上刚推出时都彻底失败了,这其实很有趣。

And so an example is, actually, Close Friends on Stories and Reels for Instagram both were colossal failures when they started, which is really interesting.

Speaker 0

比如,‘亲密好友’功能让你能只与一小群人分享内容,因为人们感到被太多人评判的压力。

Like, on on on Close Friends, you know, we made this way for you to share with just a small group because people felt this pressure that they were being judged by lots of people.

Speaker 0

所以,好吧,我们允许你只向更小的群体分享。

So, okay, let's share to a smaller group.

Speaker 0

我们让你可以在动态和故事中分享,还添加了个人资料中的一个部分。

So we allowed you to share on feed and in Stories, and and it had this part of your profile.

Speaker 0

这些内容也是私密的,并且明确标注为私密项目。

It was also private, and they were marked these were private items.

Speaker 0

整个系统设计得极其混乱。

And the whole system was just so confusing.

Speaker 0

不仅如此,在许多国家,这个功能还被翻译错了。

And not only that, it was even mistranslated in a bunch of countries.

Speaker 0

所以,原本‘亲密好友’可能被翻译成了‘最爱’。

So instead of saying close friends I think it was called favorites originally.

Speaker 0

在一些国家,它被称为‘我的最爱’。

And in some countries, it was called, like, my favorite.

Speaker 0

所以人们只会把一个人放在列表里,实际上是在发送一条私信。

And so people would just put, like, one person on the list and share effectively a DM.

Speaker 0

但由于没有推送提醒——因为它不是私信,而是动态——他们根本看不到。

But because they didn't send you a push alert, because it's not a DM, it's a story, they would never even see it.

Speaker 0

因此他们根本不知道,也没有反馈机制,没人会从他们的动态收到私信回复,结果就直接死了。

And so they wouldn't know, and so there was no feedback loop, no one got a DM back from their story, and it was just like, died.

Speaker 0

这个功能简直是一场灾难。

And the thing was a disaster.

Speaker 0

但我们本可以就此放弃,说:‘这太糟了。’

But we could have just walked away from it, and been like, that sucked.

Speaker 0

但发生了两件事。

But two things happened.

Speaker 0

第一,我们询问用户为什么觉得分享不舒服,最主要的原因几乎总是:我担心谁会看到这个,我会因此被评判,或者这里有我的老师、阿姨、叔叔,而我发的却是和朋友瞎玩的视频之类的内容。

One, we asked users why they felt uncomfortable sharing, and the number one thing was almost always, I'm worried who's gonna see this thing, and I'm gonna get judged for it, or I have a teacher on here, or my aunt, or my uncle, and it's like me goofing off with my friends or whatever.

Speaker 0

因此,我们坚信这是一个严重的问题,阻碍了人们从产品中获得更多的快乐和价值。

And so we just had such conviction that this was a serious problem that was preventing people from getting more joy out of and and value from the product.

Speaker 0

第二点是,我们其实并不理解其中的机制会如何运作。

And the second was you you know, we didn't understand just, like, how the physics would work.

Speaker 0

我们实际上查看了数据,发现故事功能确实有轻微增长,但只限于一小部分用户。

And we actually looked at the data, and it turned out that the stories part of it was kinda growing a little bit, but only with a small group of people.

Speaker 0

那么,这背后到底发生了什么?

So, like, what's going on with that?

Speaker 0

我们对此进行了研究。

We studied it.

Speaker 0

结果发现,如果用户在列表中添加了足够多的人,比如二十到三十人,然后发布他们的故事,就会感觉像一个私密的小故事,让人感觉很好。

It turns out if people added enough people to their list, like 20 or 30, and they posted their story, it felt like this little private story that felt good.

Speaker 0

而且我们还在上面加了一个绿色圆环,所以用户能意识到自己发布的是一个与众不同的故事。

And then we also have this green ring on it, so it felt like you could see that you had a different, like, kinda story on there.

Speaker 0

如果你添加了二十个人,就有一定概率会有人给你发私信回复说:太棒了。

And then if you had if you posted 20 people, you have some probability one of them is gonna DM you back and go, sweet.

Speaker 0

太棒了。

That's awesome.

Speaker 0

而且如果它感觉像一件私密的事。

And if it feels like a private thing.

Speaker 0

所以它确实奏效了。

So it kinda it worked.

Speaker 0

于是我们删除了其他所有功能,只保留了故事功能。

And so we deleted everything else we did, and we just made it a Stories thing.

Speaker 0

我们把名称从‘收藏’改为了‘亲密好友’。

We changed the name from favorites to Close Friends.

Speaker 0

我们加了那个绿色标识,并明确提示用户将人添加到列表中,还让添加二十、三十个人变得很容易。

We added that green thing, and we we made it clear people add people to your list, and we made it easy to add, like, twenty, thirty people.

Speaker 0

而且你必须添加到一定数量才算完成,那时功能就起作用了。

And it was like, you're not done until you that's kind of at a sufficient number, and then it worked.

Speaker 0

在Reels上也有类似的情况,我们最初在巴西推出时,将其与故事功能整合了。

And there's an equivalent thing with with Reels where we launched, I think it was in Brazil, and it was integrated to Stories.

Speaker 0

我们的想法是,嘿。

The thought was, hey.

Speaker 0

这是一个全屏查看器。

It's a full screen viewer.

Speaker 0

这是视频。

It's video.

Speaker 0

我们认为年轻人会对它感到兴奋,而且他们很喜欢动态消息。

It's something we think, like, younger people are excited about, and they love Stories.

Speaker 0

这看起来就像一个动态消息功能。

It seems just like a Stories feature.

Speaker 0

我们为什么要单独开发一个完整的新功能?

Why are we building a whole separate thing?

Speaker 0

你看,Instagram 已经太复杂了。

It's like there's art Instagram's already so complicated.

Speaker 0

我们不如做个简单点的东西。

Let's just make something simple.

Speaker 0

结果发现这也是个糟糕的主意,因为你为什么要花这么大的力气去发布一个一天后就消失的故事呢?

Turns out that was also a bad idea because why would you put all of this effort into, you know, building like, posting a story when it goes away in a day.

Speaker 0

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 0

你是个创作者。

Like, you're a creator.

Speaker 0

你希望它能长久留存。

You want it to live.

Speaker 0

你希望它能走红。

You want it to go viral.

Speaker 0

你希望有大量人看到它。

You want lots of people to see it.

Speaker 0

因此,这引发了一系列相当重要的改动。

And so that led to a set of whole set of changes that were pretty meaningful.

Speaker 0

在这两种情况下,我认为正是这种信念——你正在做的东西必须有意义、很重要——才让你有动力继续推进。

And in both cases, I think it was this belief that the thing you're working on is pretty it needs to matter and be important that gives you the desire to keep pushing.

Speaker 0

然后你会发现,这实际上就跟人工智能和机器学习的工作方式一模一样。

And then you you kinda like it's actually just like how AI works and machine learning.

Speaker 0

你先初始化第一个版本,观察它的损失,看到它有多糟糕,然后你继续改进——真正决定成败的,往往是你接下来那两到三次迭代的调整。

It's like you initialize the first thing, you see its losses, you see how it's sucking, and then you go and it's actually in those the next two to three moves you make, the iteration cycles, that actually produce whether the thing's gonna work or not.

Speaker 0

当然,有时候你也会选择放弃。

And then at some point, give up, of course.

Speaker 0

但有些项目花了好几年才成功,可能经历了四五次尝试,当人们只看到你最终推出的产品并说‘哦,你一发布就成功了’时,他们往往感到震惊。

But it took years for some of those projects to go, and maybe four or five attempts, which is, I think, shocking to a lot of people when they they just see it, and they're like, oh, you launched this thing, and it was successful, or whatever.

Speaker 0

就像Instagram或者Google那样。

Like, you're Instagram or you're Google.

Speaker 0

但很多这样的故事,其实都是从这种方式开始的。

But, you know, many, many of the stories kinda started that way.

Speaker 2

我的一个体会是,有时候在数据出现之前,你需要有疯狂的信念。

I mean, one of my takeaways just from hearing you share this is that it takes crazy conviction sometimes before the numbers.

Speaker 2

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 2

尤其是当你在运营一个规模较大的业务,已经有其他项目在为你创造价值时,为什么要过度专注于一个不奏效的事情呢?

Because especially when you're operating a scale where you have other things that are working for you, why would you over rotate on something that is not working?

Speaker 2

我特别喜欢这一点,因为这正是我作为创始人一直在做的事情。

And and I love that because that's one of these things that I I do as a as a founder.

Speaker 2

我的意思是,我们当然也有B计划,所以这件事必须成功。

I mean, it's not that we also don't have a plan b, so it has to work.

Speaker 2

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 2

但在一个采取更分散风险策略的环境中,你依然能看到,专注于那些不奏效的事情,并不计一切代价去推动,直到至少达到某种程度的成功,是多么了不起。

But like in a place where you have a more diversified risk approach, it's still incredible to see that you can focus on things that are not working and pushing however it takes until at least you get to some level of success.

Speaker 2

我的意思是,我们可能已经看到了Meta在AR和这些领域上的极端案例。

I mean, we've seen the extreme case maybe with meta, with AR, and all of these things.

Speaker 2

但事实上,好事终究会以某种方式发生。

But but in reality, something good will eventually happen one way or the other.

Speaker 0

完全同意。

Totally agree.

Speaker 0

比如,我们回顾一下AI模式的发展历程,最初是从AI概览开始,逐步构建更复杂的模型,让你能够提出更复杂的问题。

Like, you think about our journey with AI Mode was like starting with AI overviews, building more sophisticated models, and letting you ask these more harder questions.

Speaker 0

而最初的版本,你知道的,没有什么东西一开始就是完美的。

And the first versions, you know, they're not nothing starts great.

Speaker 0

所以你一直在改进它,心里想着:‘我不确定这能不能行。’

And so you're kinda working on it, and you're like, oh, I don't know.

Speaker 0

比如,它有点让人困惑,或者对这类问题反应混乱,又或者没有理解并回应我之前告诉它的内容,这时候你可能就直接放弃了。

Like, it's kind of confusing, or it's getting confused with these kinds of questions, or it's not thinking or reacting to what I already said it told it to do, and you could just give up right there.

Speaker 0

但我认为,通常你会有一种强烈的信念。

But I think what happens is usually you have this intense conviction.

Speaker 0

对我来说,对我们来说,就是你应该能够向谷歌提出那些关于旅行、学习或作业的难题,我们应该充分利用谷歌海量的上下文和知识,准确回答并帮助你。

Like, for for me and for us, it's like, you should be able to ask Google these questions that are hard and that are about travel or learning or homework, and we should use all of this incredible context and knowledge at Google and get it right and help you.

Speaker 0

因此,这是一种非常坚定的信念。

And so it was this very high conviction.

Speaker 0

然后,通常你会看到某个突破性的进展。

And then usually, you have this spark of working.

Speaker 0

所以我就会问它一两个特别难的问题,而它竟然完全答对了。

So I would ask it one or two questions that were really hard, and it just nailed it.

Speaker 0

然后你就想,天哪。

And you're like, oh my god.

Speaker 0

这就像是打高尔夫球一样,如果有人打过高尔夫,当你打出一记完美的击球时。

It's kinda like when you you hit a golf ball, if anyone has played golf, and you just hit a perfect golf shot.

Speaker 0

一切完美地结合在了一起。

It all comes together.

Speaker 0

然后你就再也打不出那样的球了。

And then you never do that.

Speaker 0

你可能很长一段时间都打不出那样的球,但你会想,我知道这是可能做到的,当整个系统顺利运行时,感觉实在太棒了。

You don't do that again for a while, but you're kinda like, I know it's what what is is possible, and it feels so good when the whole system works.

Speaker 0

而这种感觉就会激励你继续前进,基本上就是这样。

And then you're just that motivates you to keep going, basically.

Speaker 0

每当我参与的项目达到那种突破临界点的水平时,我都会看到这两个可靠的起点。

Those are the two reliable things that I've seen every time anything, like, that I've been a part of working on that's that's gotten to that level of escape velocity, had those two starting points.

Speaker 0

因为再说一遍,一切起初都不怎么样,是领导者、创始人或最初的创始团队——那些真正做事的人——让这一切成为可能。

Because, again, everything starts not great, and it's up to the leader to make it great, or the founders or the initial the founding team that, you know, the real people doing the work to make it possible.

Speaker 2

我喜欢这个高尔夫的比喻。

I love that golf analogy.

Speaker 2

我称之为高尔夫球场,因为我绝对是那种人。

I got it I call it the golf course because I'm definitely one of those people.

Speaker 2

每个人都很疯狂。

Everyone's wild.

Speaker 0

这也是对的。

That's also true.

Speaker 2

我想稍微换个话题,谈谈分发问题。

I want to switch shift gears for a second and and talk about distribution.

Speaker 2

我的天,谷歌的这次翻身简直太了不起了。

I mean, what an incredible comeback story at Google.

Speaker 2

当我们看到新AI工具崛起时,网上到处都是文章说谷歌完了。

Like, when we saw the rise of new AI tools, there were articles out there about Google is dead.

Speaker 2

它会死掉的。

It's going to die.

Speaker 2

但突然间,经过几次迭代后,情况变了。

And suddenly, it took a few iterations.

Speaker 2

我的意思是,尤其是现在有了Gemini 3,一下子就起来了。

I mean, especially now with Gemini three, boom.

Speaker 2

它开始真正运转起来了。

It starts clicking.

Speaker 2

作为用户,我开始获得实实在在的价值。

And, like, you as a user, I start getting real value.

Speaker 2

而且,我还看到了一些推动更多用户使用的机制,比如现在你把这项功能打包进了Google Workspace。

And, like, I see also the mechanisms that are encouraging more users such as, now you're bundling that bundling that as part of Google Workspace.

Speaker 2

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 2

所以我无需额外付费就能使用它。

So I don't have to pay more to use that.

Speaker 2

你正在更好地与其他谷歌产品整合。

You are better better integrating with other other Google products.

Speaker 2

所以我看过这个场景,可能在微软的世界里,当互联网浏览器已经预装在一些电脑上时,微软团队在Slack需要为新用户单独安装之后,也开始获得更多用户。

So I've seen that movie, maybe in the Microsoft world, when Internet Explorer was already installed in some computers and and how even Microsoft Teams started taking more headwinds headwinds after Slack had to be installed for new users.

Speaker 2

所以我很想知道,你们是如何利用自身的分发优势来推动你们自己的AI产品获得更多采用的。

So I I'm curious to know about how you're leveraging your own distribution advantage to get more adoption of your own AI products.

Speaker 0

我的意思是,好消息是人们正在主动来到谷歌,并提出这类问题。

I mean, the good news is people are coming to Google, and they're asking these kinds of questions.

Speaker 0

所以我认为,关键其实在于如何在用户所在的地方满足他们,并真正很好地解决他们的问题,坦率地说。

So I think it's more actually about how do you meet people where they are and solve their problem really well, honestly.

Speaker 0

因为你知道,我参与过很多项目,如果你把一个产品摆在别人面前,他们也不会用。

Because, you know, I've been part of many things where if you put a product in front of someone, they won't use it.

Speaker 0

如果它不能为他们正在做的事情增加价值,那就只是死路一条。

Like, if it doesn't add value to what they're doing, it's just dead.

Speaker 0

我们曾经尝试过对产品进行非常激进的改动,但结果就是,没人会在意。

There's been many experiments where we've tried making really radical changes to products before, and there's just no reason why anyone would care.

Speaker 0

所以我认为很大一部分在于,人们正在寻找越来越复杂的信息,而我们正好具备这一特点。

And so I think a lot of it is, you know, you know, we have the signature where people are looking for information with increasing complexity.

Speaker 0

当你找到那个适合你的信息呈现形式的时刻时,事情就会变得更好,比如我们提到的Instagram和动态消息,还有AI概览和搜索中的AI模式——这就是人们想要的信息型AI,因为他们希望获得上下文,能够用自然语言提问并继续追问。

And then the more that you find that moment where you've invented the format that works for you, like we talked about Instagram and Stories and, you know, AI overviews and AI Mode for search, It's like the informational AI that people want because they want this context and ability to ask natural language and ask follow-up questions.

Speaker 0

只要你让这一切变得可行且易于使用,好事自然会发生。

You make that possible and easy for people to use, good things happen.

Speaker 0

所以我认为其中一点是让这个系统运行得非常出色,而我们现在已经开始看到AI概览和AI模式在这方面取得成效,尤其是它们正以更流畅的方式融合,这正是我们当初设想这些实验时的思路。

So I think that one piece is having that system work really well, and I think we're starting to see that now with AI overviews and AI Mode, especially how they're coming together in a more fluid way, in the kind of ways that we're thinking about these experiments.

Speaker 0

我认为另一点是模型本身的持续不懈改进。

And I think the other piece of it is this relentless continued improvement in the models themselves.

Speaker 0

你自己也说过,想想三年前的模型是什么样子,两年前、一年前,再到现在,模型已经能编程、能生成小规模模拟来为你解释事物,还能即时为你创建房贷计算器。

I mean, said yourself, think about where models were three years ago, and then two years ago, and then one year ago, and then now you're in this world where the model can code and can produce little simulations that explain things for you and create mortgage calculators for you on the fly.

Speaker 0

于是,当有人正试图计算自己的房贷时,

And so you have someone coming trying to figure out their mortgage.

Speaker 0

你拥有一个能完成所有这些惊人任务的模型。

You have a model that can do all this incredible stuff.

Speaker 0

你如何将这些结合起来,满足用户的需求?

How do you bring those together and match that that user need?

Speaker 0

这确实是我认为我们一直全力追求的最关键机遇。

And that's really that's really, I think, the the most critical opportunity that we've been, you know, really pursuing.

Speaker 2

罗比,能和你深入探讨所有关于AI的话题,以及你从一线构建的过程,真是非常愉快。

Robby, it's been a pleasure to geek out with you on all things AI and how you are building from the trenches.

Speaker 2

非常感谢你抽出时间。

Thank you so much for your time.

Speaker 0

当然。

Absolutely.

Speaker 0

非常感谢你邀请我。

Thanks so much for having me.

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