Anthropic 的疯狂估值 + 营销的未来

本节目由菲拉格慕赞助。

Support for the show comes from Ferragamo.

今年父亲节，菲拉格慕推出这一系列，致敬我从您身上学到的一切——父亲的影响体现在细节里，体现在穿衣风格里，体现在对材质的品味里，也体现在每一个深思熟虑的选择里。

This Father's Day, Ferragamo presents there the things I have learned from you collection because a father's influence is reflected in the details, in the way they dress, in the appreciation of materials, and in making considered choices.

这些点滴积累下来，最终成为我们共同的身份印记。

These elements build over time and become part of a shared identity.

菲拉格慕希望展现父亲与所爱之人日常相处中自然流露的风格、自信与从容。

And Ferragamo wants to highlight the style, assertiveness, and poise that are naturally showcased with the everyday moments between a father and the ones they love.

了解更多菲拉格慕父亲节精选礼品，请访问官网或前往门店。

Discover Ferragamo's Father's Day gifting selection at .com or in store.

本节目由雅芳赞助。

Support for the show comes from Avon.

雅芳推出了首款基于维萨卡的房屋净值信贷额度产品。

Avon built the First Home Equity line of credit on a Visa card.

刷法和普通信用卡一样，利率却低得多，每月能省下几百块。

Same swipe as a regular credit card, a fraction of the rate, saving you hundreds a month.

美国人信用卡债务总额超过一万亿美元，利率高达23%以上，而房主们手握着美国历史上规模最大的未动用房产净值。

Americans carry over a trillion dollars in credit card debt at rates north of 23%, while homeowners sit on the largest pool of untapped equity in US history.

Avon解决了这种不平衡。

Avon fixes that asymmetry.

Trustpilot上超过八千名用户给出了4.9星的高分评价。

4.9 stars on Trustpilot from over 8,000 customers.

前往 avon.com 了解更多。

Go to avon.com.

别再为资金支付过高的成本了。

Stop overpaying for capital.

Avon Financial Inc，NMLS编号2042345，卡片由Visa USA Inc授权发行。

Avon Financial Inc, NMLS number 2042345, Cards issued pursuant to a license from Visa USA Inc.

由Coastal Community Bank发行，NMLS编号462289。

By Coastal Community Bank, NMLS number 462289.

FDIC成员，平等住房贷款机构。

Member FDIC equal housing lender.

条件审核通过后方可生效。

Subject to approval terms apply.

详情请访问 aven.com。

Visit aven.com for details.

本节目由 Section 赞助支持。

Support for the show comes from Section.

OpenAI 和 Anthropic 最近的联合项目都指向同一个趋势。

The recent joint ventures from OpenAI and Anthropic point to the same thing.

企业如果只是简单地发放 AI 许可证，是无法真正获得价值的。

Enterprises are not going to get value from AI by just rolling out licenses.

如果你正在部署 AI 并希望获得实际的投资回报，就必须投入资源改变人们的工作方式。

If you're deploying AI and you want real ROI, you need to invest in changing how people work.

如果你想快速推进，并且找一支真正懂行的团队，那就该联系我们的公司 Section。

If you wanna do this fast with a team who actually knows what they're doing, you should talk to our company section.

这其实是个付费广告，有点奇怪。

This is actually a paid ad, it's a little bit weird.

坦白说，我是Section的投资者，因为我相信AI领域最被忽视的部分是我所说的‘落地层’——也就是帮助企业提升员工能力，更好地利用AI。

Full disclosure, I'm an investor in Section as I feel that the part of AI that is most underinvested is what I call the adoption layer, and that is helping companies upscale their employee base to better leverage AI.

总之，Section已经帮助耐克、Autodesk、NASCAR、百威英博、阳狮集团等上百家企业从AI中获得了实际价值。

Anyways, Section has helped Nike, Autodesk, NASCAR, AB InBev, and Publicis, and a 100 other firms get value from AI.

他们也能为你做到这一点。

They can do it for you.

想了解详情，请访问sectionai.com。

Get in touch at section a I dot com.

网址是scc t I o n a I dot com，更多内容请前往查看。

That's s c c t I o n a I dot com to learn more.

欢迎收听《Office Hours with Profg》。

Welcome to Office Hours with Profg.

这是节目里我们回答大家关于商业、大型科技创业以及任何你关心话题的环节。

This is the part of the show where we answer questions about business, big tech entrepreneurship, and whatever else is on your mind.

如果你希望在下一期提问，可以录制一段语音发送到officehours@profgmedia.com。

If you'd like to submit a question for next time, you can send a voice recording to officehours@profgmedia.com.

再次提醒，邮箱是 officehours@profgmedia.com，或者你也可以在 Scott Galloway 的 Reddit 子版块里发帖，我们可能会选你的问题放到下一期节目中。

Again, that's officehours@profgmedia.com, or post your question on the Scott Galloway subreddit and we just might feature it in our next episode.

另外，你现在可以直接打电话或发短信问问题，号码是 (201) 472-3656。

Plus, you can now call or text us a question at (201) 472-3656.

号码是 (201) 472-3656。

That's (201) 472-3656.

好了，咱们开始吧。

Alright, let's get into it.

第一个问题来自 Steve，他给我们发了邮件。

Our first question comes from Steve who emailed us.

他说：我是个投资小白，但一直听 Profg 的节目。

He asks, I'm a simpleton in investing who listens to profg regularly.

我知道沃尔玛和 Anthropic 属于不同行业，但能不能解释一下，为什么年收入约 7130 亿美元、运营利润约 300 亿美元的沃尔玛，市值反而比年收入约 700 亿美元、预计利润 22 亿美元的 Anthropic 还低？

I know both are different sectors, but can someone explain how Walmart with revenues of approximately 713,000,000,000 and operating profit of around 30,000,000,000 can have a lower valuation than Anthropic, which has revenue of approximately 70,000,000,000 and forecast a profit of around 2,200,000,000.

他是说预计收入是 700 亿美元吗？

Is it forecasting revenue of 70,000,000?

这难道是泡沫的迹象吗？

Is that evidence of a bubble?

还是投资者只是在为Anthropic未来的高增长和高利润定价？

Or are investors simply pricing in much higher future growth and profitability for Anthropic?

通常来说，股价反映的是资产价值，比如零售门店的土地、知识产权，再加上未来增长机会或现金流的现值。

So typically a stock price is meant to be the asset value, so just the land underneath the retail or the intellectual property and owns plus the present value of growth opportunity or cash flow.

所有这些资产都应该能产生一系列能带来收入的资产，而且收入要高于投入成本，这才叫利润。

So all of these assets should be able to create an asset or a series of assets that create revenue that is greater than the inputs to produce that revenue, that's profits.

而你对这些利润的估值倍数，也就是市盈率，通常取决于增长有多快，或者现金流是否稳定持久。

And then your growth or the multiple you get on those earnings, the PE ratio is a function usually of how fast that is growing or how stable and durable those cash flows are.

SpaceX、Anthropic和OpenAI的估值能达到营收的30到40倍，甚至100倍，是因为人们看到的是潜在市场，觉得如果这些公司能持续快速增长，未来有可能成为全球最有价值的企业。

And the reason why SpaceX and Anthropic and OpenAI are going out at anywhere from 30 or 40 times revenues to a 100 times revenues is that people look at the addressable market and think, wow, if this company continues to grow in fairly short order, it could be the most valuable company in the world.

现在你投资这三家公司中的任何一家，其实都是在赌一个可能性——它们确实有可能成为全球最有价值的公司，因为它们的估值目前都在1万亿到2万亿美元之间。

And right now, you are buying in any of these three companies, there is you're betting in the non zero probability that this could in fact be the most valuable company in the world because these companies are going out at anywhere between 1 and $2,000,000,000,000.

目前全球最有价值的公司，我觉得大概在5万亿到5.5万亿美元左右。

The most valuable company in the world, I think, is around 5 or 5 and a half.

我记不清了，是英伟达还是苹果。

I can't remember if it's Nvidia or Apple.

最后你会遇到一些增长缓慢、不吸引人、不属于软件行业、利润率也赶不上科技公司的企业。

So you do end up with companies that are low growth, not exciting, not in software, don't have the margins of technology.

沃尔玛的潜在市场规模其实挺大的。

You know, the addressable market for Walmart is pretty big.

我觉得它在零售市场占了百分之九到十一。

I think it has a nine or 11% share of retail.

它大概永远也冲不上百分之二十，因为消费者到了某个阶段就会想要差异化，喜欢去不同的地方购物，或者受地域限制之类的。

It's probably never going to get above 20 because consumers like at some point differentiation and want to shop at different places or regional friction, whatever it might be.

咱们聊聊总可服务市场吧。

But let's talk about TAM.

我觉得Anthropic每年都在增长五到十倍。

I think Anthropic is five or 10 x ing every year.

所以人们看到这个，就觉得它未来有可能变成一家超级巨头公司。

So people look at that and think, that could be an enormous company at some point.

而且毕竟它本质上是软件，一旦达到盈亏平衡，大部分额外收入都会直接落到利润端。

And because it is in fact software at some point, when it hits breakeven, a lot of those additional revenues are going to flow to the bottom line.

那这里的关键启示是什么？

So what's the takeaway here?

我们来看看具体数据。

Let's let's look at the numbers.

2025财年，沃尔玛的净销售额为6.75亿美元，调整后的营业利润高达300亿美元，营业利润率是4.4%。

Fiscal twenty twenty five net sales of $675,000,000 to Walmart, adjusted operating income of $30,000,000,000 operating margin of 4.4%.

截至最近，其市值达到1万亿美元，大约是营收的1.5倍，或是营业利润的34倍——对一家零售商来说，这个估值其实相当高。

And the market cap as of late was $1,000,000,000,000 that's roughly one and a half times revenue or 34 times operating income, which is actually pretty rich for a retailer.

沃尔玛的营业利润率已经从2023财年的3.3%提升到了4.3%。

Walmart's operating margin has climbed from 3.3% in fiscal twenty twenty three to 4.3%.

沃尔玛的商业模式完全不一样。

Walmart is just a different business.

沃尔玛的核心理念是，凭借规模效应和卓越的运营能力，把成本节省的部分让利给消费者。

Walmart operates on the notion that their scale and their operational excellence, they can pass the savings on to a consumer.

所以真正影响股东价值的，只有三个关键因素。

So there are only three things that matter or lines that matter around shareholder value.

首先是收入线，也就是消费者感知到的价值。

There's the top line, is which perceived value.

其次是中间那条线，也就是你定价的水平，再往下是提供这项服务的成本。

The next line, the middle line is the price you charge, and the line below that is the cost to deliver that service.

所有股东价值，都取决于这三条线之间的比例或相对差距。

And all shareholder value is a function of the ratio between or relative distance between those lines.

沃尔玛的策略，就是不断压低成本线。

So Walmart is in the business of constantly pushing down the cost line.

一旦做到了这一点，就会带来一系列积极的变化。

And then once you do that, some wonderful things happen.

如果你能把节省下来的成本转嫁给消费者，降低售价——这正是沃尔玛的做法——那么你定价与消费者感知价值之间的差距就会拉大，价值主张也就更强了，市场份额自然会增长。

If you can either pass along the savings and pull down the price line that you're charging consumers, which is what Walmart does, And then the gap between the price you charge consumers and perceived value broadens, and the value proposition goes up, and you should expand share.

这一直都是沃尔玛的策略：只要他们通过优化运营，比如比别人更高效地把一托盘姜汁汽水运到阿肯色州，就会立刻把节省的成本让利给消费者，从而提升沃尔玛的价值主张。

And that's been Walmart's strategy the whole time, is they don't if they cut costs on operations such that they can ship a pallet of ginger ale to Arkansas more efficiently than someone else, they immediately pass those savings on to the consumer, and the value proposition of Walmart goes up.

有句老话这么说，开始在沃尔玛购物，就像升了职一样，生活质量明显提升——因为你现在买得起进口啤酒，而不是国产的，只要你愿意这么做。

There's an old saying that starting to shop at Walmart is like getting a promotion in terms of the change in the quality of your life because you can now afford to buy imported beer versus domestic beer, if that's if that's what you want to do.

像蒂芙尼或爱马仕这样的公司，它们的任务是通过创新、稀缺性和品牌塑造，尽可能提升消费者对价值的感知。

Other companies such as a Tiffany or Hermes, their job, they're in the they're in the job of pushing the perceived value line up as much as possible through innovation and scarcity and branding.

这很好，因为感知价值和实际售价之间的差距拉大了，市场份额自然也会扩大。

And then that's wonderful, because then the gap between the perceived value and the price they charge goes up, which should expand share.

但通常它们的做法是，一边提升感知价值，一边提高价格。

But typically what they do is they, they push the perceived value line up, they raise price.

说白了，这些公司就是在拼命抬高消费者对产品价值的预期。

Effectively, what you're doing in these companies is they're trying to they're trying to push the perceived value up dramatically.

它们还投入巨额资金，好让这些产品看起来物超所值。

They're also raising so much capital that they can offer these products at an incredible value.

据说，Claude Pro或者Claude Max，每月收费200美元。

So supposedly, Claude Pro or Claude Max, it costs $200 a month.

但据称，现在提供这项服务所需的算力和芯片成本，每月高达5000美元。

But supposedly right now, it costs them $5,000 a month for the compute and the chips to offer you that service.

所以他们就是想拼命抢占市场份额。

So they're trying to just capture a ton of share.

这些公司增长快得惊人，目标市场几乎无限大，结果就是估值高得让人难以置信。

These companies are growing incredibly fast, and their total addressable market seems almost infinite, which results in just kind of what I feel would be insane valuations.

咱们聊聊Anthropic吧。

Let's talk about Anthropic.

你听好了。

So get this.

2024年1月，他们的年收入是8700万美元，到2024年底就涨到了10亿美元，到2025年底更是达到900亿美元，到2026年4月直接冲到3000亿美元。

The annual revenue trajectory was 87,000,000 in January 2024, and it's 1,000,000,000 by 2024, and 9,000,000,000 by the end of twenty twenty five, and 30,000,000,000 by April 2026.

你看，这家公司——Anthropic，真是美国创新的一个奇迹。

So as you can see, this company I mean, Anthropic really is a miracle of American innovation.

它才成立五年而已。

It was started five years ago.

要是它在欧洲，早就跻身五大最有价值公司之列了。

And if it was in Europe, it'd be one of the five most valuable companies.

据了解公司财务状况的人士称，目前的年经常性收入约为400亿美元，今年二月G轮融资后的估值为3800亿美元，并已开始洽谈以9000亿美元的投前估值融资。

The current run rate is about 40,000,000,000 ARR according to people with knowledge of the company's financials, and the valuation was 380,000,000,000 post money at Series G in February, announcing talks to raise money at a $900,000,000,000 pre money.

内部文件预测，2026年将亏损140亿美元。

Internal documents project a $14,000,000,000 loss for 2026.

最早也要到2028年才能实现正的自由现金流。

No positive free cash flow until 2028 at the earliest.

顺便说一句，这比OpenAI预计实现正自由现金流的时间还要早个两三年。

By the way, think that's a couple years earlier than the projected positive free cash flow date for OpenAI.

以9000亿美元的估值和4.5亿美元的年收入计算，它的市销率大约是20倍，而沃尔玛才1.5倍。

So at a $900,000,000,000 valuation and 45,000,000 in ARR, that's roughly 20 times forward revenues compared to Walmart's one and a half.

这是两种完全不同的业务，市场预期也截然不同。

They're just different businesses with different expectations.

那我该说，这问题的答案到底是什么？

I would, what's the answer here?

你说，到底哪个更有投资价值？

You know, which is a better value?

答案是肯定的，我觉得你该把所有东西都投一遍。

The answer is yes, and that is, I think you want to invest in everything.

别妄想自己能挑出那根针，干脆把整个干草堆都买下来，用低成本指数基金定投，省下手续费。

I don't think you want to try and talk yourself into the illusion that you can find the needle in the haystack, buy the whole haystack, dollar cost in, low cost index funds so you don't pay fees or a lot of fees.

我确实觉得，这里头藏着一个真真切切的泡沫问题。

So I do think there is a real serious bubble question.

看空的一方说，Anthropic已经融了七百二十亿美元，但到2028年才可能有正向现金流，而AI嘛，总有一天增长会慢下来。

The bear case, Anthropic has taken in roughly 72,000,000,000 in funding and does not have free cash flow projected until 2028, and AI, you know, at some point AI is going to stop growing at the same pace.

我觉得还存在一个潜在威胁——中国那边出来的开源大模型。

I think also, I think there's some existential threat from open way open weight LLMs out of China.

监管风险也不容忽视，我觉得下一个大规模民粹运动，可能会围绕移民或者生活成本展开。

Regulatory concerns, I think the next big populist movement is in immigration or affordability.

AI监管倒是两边都有支持者，争议不小。

It's AI regulation, which has fans on both sides of the aisle.

所以，我们是不是正处在泡沫里？

So, you know, are we in a bubble?

大概是吧。

Probably.

但真很难说准泡沫什么时候会破裂。

But it's really hard to tell when the bubble's gonna pop.

1997年的时候，我们明显看得出互联网泡沫，可纳斯达克指数后来还是涨了两倍多。

It was obvious we were in a .com bubble in 1997, and yet the NASDAQ, I think tripled.

所以想精准择时根本不可能。

So it's very hard to time the market.

我觉得你应该做的，就是一直留在市场里，持续存钱、投资，分散配置低成本的指数基金，别费劲去琢磨沃尔玛和Anthropic谁更值得买。

And I think what you want to do is just always be in the market, always continue to save money and invest in the market and be diversified in low cost index funds such that you don't have to try and figure out if Walmart or Anthropic is the better value.

说实话，我不知道。

The honest answer is I don't know.

这算是坏消息。

That's the bad news.

好消息是，不会。

The good news is no.

还是说别人也有这种看法？

Or does anybody else?

对。

Yeah.

这是泡沫吗？

Is it a bubble?

还是说这些公司会因为巨大的潜在市场而上涨？

Or are these companies going to go up because of the incredible TAM?

我觉得答案是肯定的。

I think the answer is yes.

第二个问题。

Question number two.

你好，斯科特。

Hi, Scott.

我是来自达拉斯的马克。

This is Mark from Dallas.

我女儿今年秋天要去上大学，主修广告学。

My daughter is heading to college this fall as an advertising major.

她打算将来从事品牌管理或活动策划，但我听这个播客，听到你们的提醒。

She's looking at a career in brand or events management, but I listen to the pod and I hear your warnings.

你们说得清楚，像唐·德雷珀那种老派广告已经过时了，品牌时代结束了，AI正朝创意行业袭来。

You've made it clear that Don Draper's version of advertising is dead, that the brand era is over, and that AI is coming for the creative class.

我想问的是，现在学广告专业，还能不能通往高薪职业？

My question is, is an advertising degree still a viable path to a high earning career?

还是说，到2026年，这学费根本就是白花？

Or is it a waste of tuition in 2026?

如果这是你女儿，你会建议她现在转行吗？

If this were your daughter, would you tell her to pivot now?

还是说，这个领域里还有办法让职业不被AI取代？

Or is there a way to AI proof a career in this field?

感谢你们所做的一切。

Thanks for everything you do.

谢谢你的问题。

Thanks for the question.

这个问题我经常被问到。

I get this question a lot.

我觉得很多问题其实出在用词上。

So I think a lot of it is words.

我觉得这个专业应该改个名字，比如市场营销、客户获取之类的，听起来更贴近当下一些。

I think that they should change the name of the degree to marketing or customer acquisition or I don't know, something that feels a little bit more due age.

因为一听到‘广告’，人们就会想到电视里六十秒的广告，比如在CBS新闻中间插播那种治疗阿片类药物引起的便秘的广告。

Because advertising, when people hear advertising, they think of a sixty second spot telling you you have opioid induced constipation ads in the middle of CBS News.

传统广播电视广告行业正在结构性衰退。

The broadcast advertising business is just in structural decline.

事实就是如此。

It just is.

我觉得真正标志这个转折点的，是史蒂夫·乔布斯决定把六十亿美元从广播电视广告中撤出来，转而往下游走，开了五十家苹果专卖店，把品牌变成了一种信仰。

And probably the, I would argue the kind of pivot moment that illuminated it was that Steve Jobs decided to take $6,000,000,000 out of broadcast advertising and go further down the stack and open five fifty temples to the brand, and that was Apple Stores.

所以他投资的是渠道，而不是购买前的品牌宣传。

So he invested in distribution as opposed to pre purchase branding.

从1945年到1995年，打造品牌的方式基本上是美国人每天坐在电视前五小时，只看一两个频道。

Effectively the way you build brands from kind of 1945 to 1995 was Americans were sitting in front of a TV five hours a day and watching one or three channels.

所以你只要在两三个晚上投个广告，就能覆盖整个公众。

So you could literally reach the entire public with two or three nights of advertising.

但这种情况显然已经支离破碎了。

That has obviously fragmented.

现在有成百上千个频道，还有无数其他平台在争夺你的注意力。

There are now hundreds of channels and hundreds of other options where vying for your attention.

此外，尽管观众人数减少了三分之二，但超级碗广告的费用却涨了五倍。

In addition, the cost to advertise on the Academy Awards has gone up fivefold despite the fact the audience has declined by two thirds.

所以发生了两种情况中的一种。

So one of two things has happened.

要么现在的电视广告根本不值这个价，要么我小时候那会儿，广告的性价比简直高得离谱。

Either broadcast advertising is a terrible value now, or back when I was growing up, it was an unbelievable value.

事实上，情况更多是后者——你哪怕卖一双糟糕的鞋、一辆烂车、一包咸得要死的零食、一瓶糖分爆表的饮料，只要能跟欧洲的优雅、美国的阳刚、父爱或母爱这些情感挂上钩，比如‘妈妈的选择，Jif花生酱’，就能用有限的广告预算，抓住全国大多数人的感情，把成本才两三毛钱的花生酱卖到两美元。

And the reality is it's mostly the latter, and that is you could have a shitty shoe, a shitty car, a shitty salty snack, a shitty sugary beverage, And if you created these associations of European elegance or American masculinity or paternal love or maternal love, choosing mom's choose Jif, you could put out a mediocre market, capture all of the emotions of the majority of the nation on a fairly limited, you know, advertising budget, and then sell 30 to 20¢ of peanut butter paste for $2.

这就是过去创造股东价值的套路。

So that was the kind of algorithm for creating shareholder value.

但自从谷歌出现，再加上像TripAdvisor这样的平台和人工智能的兴起，资本大规模从广告转向了渠道、物流、苹果式的产品体验，或者售后的品牌建设，比如网红营销、保修服务、客户服务、客户关系管理这些真正能提升体验的环节。

And then with Google and weapons of mass diligence that came out from TripAdvisor to AI, you've seen a vast migration of capital out of advertising into distribution, suburb, Apple, or post purchase branding, which is either influencer social media, warranties, customer service, CRM, all that good stuff.

我不太喜欢‘广告’这个词，但‘营销’或者你叫它客户互动、客户投资回报率也好，我们确实需要更准确的表达。

So I don't like the term advertising, but marketing or whatever you would call customer engagement, customer ROI, we need better terms.

我觉得真正值得学习的是如何跟人沟通——‘沟通’这个词其实更贴切，目标是通过情感连接，带来利润。

I do think it's a decent education, learning how to communicate with people, and actually communication is a better word, and try to create emotion that results in margin.

说白了，品牌这个词，本质上就是拉丁语里‘利润’或‘情感’的意思。

And that is brand is kind of Latin for margin or emotion.

你真正想要的，是让消费者心甘情愿为非理性溢价买单。

And what you want is irrational margins from consumers.

所以我想要一辆车头挂着骏马标志的车，比如法拉利——虽然我其实根本没车，但那代表了某种关于我的东西。

So I want to drive something with a stallion logo on the hood of my car, a Ferrari, I don't own a car actually, because it says something about me.

它让我显得阳刚、成功、充满欧洲优雅，还有钱买法拉利，求你和我约会吧。

It says I'm masculine, successful, European grace, have the money to buy a Ferrari, please have sex with me.

我觉得，真正高利润的品牌，无非在做两件事：让你感觉离神更近，或者让你觉得自己对更多异性更有吸引力。

And I think the majority of really high margin brands are doing one of two things, making you feel closer to God or giving you the sense that you'd be more attractive to a broader selection set of mates.

但我觉得，沟通这门技能才是核心——学会洞察市场、理解什么能打动人心、掌握渠道和科技，找到触达人群的不同方式。

But I think that the skills you get in communications is the strong one, how to figure out a market, to figure out what moves people, figure out distribution, figure out technology, different channels to reach them.

所以我认为，这行虽然不再是过去那种默认的职业路径，但它确实能培养出非常扎实的能力。

So I think that you have, I think this is what I call it's not the default career path it used to be, but, you know, it is, it does teach, I think, really strong skills.

我刚从商学院毕业那会儿，广告界的巨头是莫里斯·莱维、马丁·索雷尔、约翰·伦佐，还有IPG、奥美康、WPP这些公司，可现在它们几乎没人提了。

So, the ad model, when I was coming out of business school, the the titans of industry were Maurice Levy, Martin Sorrell, John Renzo, IPG, Omnicom, WPP, and these companies are kinda meaningless now.

以前去戛纳创意节，它们才是主宰一切的王者。

When I go to Cannes Lions, they used to be the masters of the universe.

现在呢？是谷歌、Meta、Pinterest、Spotify这些公司，它们就像在开小酒馆，只招待十来个人。

Now it's Google, Meta, Pinterest, Spotify, and these guys are basically like running Irish bars and hosting 10 or 12 people.

如果你不到四十岁，我劝你别碰广告支持的这套生态，趁早抽身吧。

You know, it's just not if you're under the age of 40, I would just not going or getting out of the ad supported ecosystem.

我觉得这个体系每年都在变得越来越难，谷歌和Meta一直在吸走所有的资源。

I just think that system is getting harder and harder every year, and the oxygen continues to get sucked out by Google and Meta.

如果你已经在那些仍然运转良好的行业里站稳脚跟，要知道，广告公司早就不再做广告了，现在他们做的是客户管理，帮客户应对这个复杂的世界，帮他们做好媒体投放。

If you're already doing well in one of those businesses that still, you know, agencies aren't in the advertising business anymore, and they're in the kind of client management business, helping them navigate a very complex world and helping them do good media buys.

你女儿提到的领域，我觉得增长空间巨大，那就是线下活动和品牌体验。

What your daughter is talking about where I think there's huge growth is events, and that is activations.

所以我经常在各种活动中发言，最近刚在加拿大温哥华的加拿大皇家银行讲过一场。

And so I speak at a lot of these events, and I just spoke at RBC in Vancouver, Canada.

他们为一场持续36小时的活动，光是给最重要的客户办的，就轻松花了两三百万美元。

They easily spent 2 or $3,000,000 on a thirty six hour event for their most important clients.

所以我还会去Dreamforce演讲，他们可能砸了上千万美元。

So I'll speak at Dreamforce, They probably spent 10,000,000.

我刚结束一场为Profg Markets举办的全国巡回活动。

I just got off a live tour for profg markets.

整个活动的场地、流程、灯光和嘉宾接待，全靠六个人在操持。

There were six people managing the venues, the events, the lighting, the guests.

我觉得现在大家越来越想走出家门，参加一些线下活动，实实在在地感受一下。

You know, I think activations and people wanting to get out and touch grass, if you will, in events.

奈飞会在坎城广告节搞快闪活动，展示他们最新的剧集，花大量时间、金钱和精力去布置。

Netflix will do a pop up at Cannes Lions featuring their latest shows, and they'll spend a ton of time and money and energy.

我们会搞出一些特别酷的装置，他们直接包下一个大木屋。

So we'll snap, we'll have something really cool, they'll take over a big chalet.

所以我觉得，如果你有条理、有创意、善于管理，那活动营销肯定会大有可为。

So I think that if you're organized, creative, a good manager, I think event marketing is going to boom, if you will.

至于传统广告？那真是没戏了。

But traditional advertising, wow.

下面可有得瞧了。

Watch out below.

顺便说一句，我会告诉我女儿：别只跟着你的天赋走。

And by the way, what I would tell my daughter is don't follow your talent.

我不会说：‘你就做让你开心的事就行了。’

I wouldn't be like, oh, just do what makes you happy.

我觉得你应该找一件自己特别擅长的事。

I would say find something you're really good at.

那就是你的方向。

That's your job.

上大学的时候，就选那些你觉得特别有天赋的科目。

And going to college, just find subject material you think you're great at.

多选几门平时不会碰的课，看看有没有什么让你意外的发现。

Take a bunch of classes you otherwise wouldn't take to see if something surprises you.

试着选一些理工类的课程。

Try and throw in some STEM.

尽量选一些逼着你写英文或者练沟通的课，因为我觉得这才是所有叙事的基础，也是我一直认为最持久的技能。

Try I would very much try and figure out a way to take classes that force you to write English or communication because I think that's the basis of all storytelling, which I still think is the enduring skill.

不过说真的，咱们不管怎么劝女儿，都只是说说而已。

But boss, let's be honest, we can tell our daughters whatever we want.

她们最终还是会按自己的想法来。

They're gonna do what they want.

但如果你女儿面临这些问题，那其实是好事。

But if your daughter these are good problems.

如果你女儿准备上大学，那说明你是个很用心的父亲。

If your daughter's headed to college, you're obviously an engaged father.

我觉得，光是这一点，就已经成功了九成。

You know, I think that's kinda 90% of success right there.

谢谢你的提问。

Thanks for the question.

稍后我们广告结束后马上回来。

We'll be right back after a quick break.

本节目由Odoo赞助播出。经营企业已经够难了，何必再用十几个互不相通的软件让自己更累呢？

Support for this show comes from Running a business is hard enough, so why make it harder with a dozen different apps that don't talk to each other?

推出Odoo。

Introducing Odoo.

这是你一生中唯一需要的商业软件。

It's the only business software you'll ever need.

这是一个一体化的完整平台，能让您的工作变得更轻松。

It's an all in one fully integrated platform that makes your work easier.

客户关系管理、财务、库存、电子商务，还有更多功能。

CRM, accounting, inventory, ecommerce, and more.

最棒的是什么？

And the best part?

Odoo 以不到十分之一的成本，取代了多个昂贵的系统。

Odoo replaces multiple expensive platforms for a fraction of the cost.

所以，已经有成千上万家企业选择了切换到 Odoo。

That's why over thousands of businesses have made the switch.

您为什么不试试呢？

So why not you?

前往 odoo.com 免费试用 Odoo。

Try Odoo for free at odoo.com.

就是 odoo.com。

That's odoo.com.

本节目由Fetch宠物保险赞助支持。

Support for this show comes from Fetch Pet Insurance.

你养宠物吗？

Do you have a pet?

在美国，每六秒就有一位宠物主人收到一张超过一千美元的兽医账单，而且几乎都是突如其来的意外。

Every six seconds, a pet owner in The US gets hit with a vet bill of over a thousand dollars, and it's almost always an unwelcome surprise.

这时候，Fetch宠物保险就派上用场了。

That's where Fetch Pet Insurance comes in.

Fetch是保障最全面的宠物保险。

Fetch is the most complete pet insurance.

兽医费用最高可报销90%。

Get paid back up to 90% of vet bills.

全美和加拿大任何一家兽医诊所都能用。

You can use any vet in The US and Canada.

所有兽医都包含在保险网络内。

All vets are in network.

现在就去 fetchpet.com/save 领取你的免费报价。

Go to fetchpet.com/save right now for your free quote.

就是 fetchpet.com/save。

That's fetchpet.com/save.

本节目由 Odoo 赞助支持。

Support for this show comes from Odoo.

做生意已经够难了，干嘛还用十几个互不相通的软件给自己添堵？

Running a business is hard enough, so why make it harder with a dozen different apps that don't talk to each other?

介绍下 Odoo。

Introducing Odoo.

这是你这辈子唯一需要的商业软件。

It's the only business software you'll ever need.

它是一个全功能、一体化的平台，能让你的工作轻松不少。

It's an all in one fully integrated platform that makes your work easier.

客户管理、财务、库存、电商，还有更多功能。

CRM, accounting, inventory, ecommerce, and more.

最棒的是什么？

And the best part?

Odoo 以远低于其他平台的价格，取代了多个昂贵的软件系统。

Odoo replaces multiple expensive platforms for a fraction of the cost.

所以才有成千上万家企业选择了切换到 Odoo。

That's why over thousands of businesses have made the switch.

那你为什么还不试试呢？

So why not you?

去 odoo.com 免费试用 Odoo。

Try Odoo for free at odoo.com.

就是 odoo.com。

That's odoo.com.

欢迎回来。

Welcome back.

第三个问题。

Question number three.

嘿，斯科特。

Hey, Scott.

我叫塞思。

My name's Seth.

我刚满四十岁。

I just turned 40.

我有一个一岁的女儿，马上又要迎来一个儿子，说不定之后还会再要一个。

I have a one year old daughter, a baby boy on the way, and maybe one more kid after that.

我很享受当爸爸的感觉，更看重家庭而不是工作。

I love being a dad, and I'm more family oriented than work centric.

但事业对我来说依然很重要，我希望在这十年里从中级管理晋升到高层领导。

But career's still really important to me, and I want to move from middle management to executive leadership this decade.

现在我正值事业黄金期，孩子还穿着尿布，我在想，比起三十岁就当爸爸的人，我是不是在职业发展上落后了。

As I enter my prime earning years with my kids in diapers, I wonder if I'm at a career disadvantage compared to fathers who had started their families at 30 versus 40.

生活把节奏给打乱了。

Life pushed things back.

职业受挫，找对伴侣，多年做试管婴儿。

Career setbacks, finding the right partner, years of IVF.

但我现在站在这里了。

But here I am.

我觉得现在更得陪在孩子身边。

I feel I need to be more present with my kids now.

不是少陪，但这样可能会拖慢我的职业发展。

Not less, but this may limit my professional growth.

你四十二岁才有了大儿子，六十多岁还在带孩子，你后悔没早点生吗？

Having had your first son at 42 and raising young men while you're in your sixties, do you wish you had kids earlier?

四十多岁当爸爸，是怎么影响你的抱负和对工作的态度的？

How did becoming a father in your forties shape your ambitions and relationship with work?

谢谢你，Scott，也感谢你帮助塑造了更健康的公众讨论，关于如何做一个男人、一个父亲。

Thanks, Scott, and thank you for helping shape a healthier public discourse on being a man and father.

谢谢你的提问，也恭喜你。

So thanks for the question and congrats.

如果能重来，我会回到孩子还小的时候，那时候对我来说才是最踏实的日子。

If I could go back, it would be to when I had little kids and, you know, those were the solid days for me.

我觉得将来回望这段人生，会特别怀念周日早上孩子们冲进我们房间，跳上床跟我们挤在一起的时光。

Think I'll look back and I have this time in my life and I'll be when our kids used to bomb into our room on a Sunday morning and jump into bed with us.

说实话，根本没什么标准答案，只有适合你自己的路。

Look, there's no right way, there's your way.

所谓的平衡，根本就不存在。

And that is, there's no such thing as balance.

有的只是取舍。

There's just trade offs.

我最受不了那些专家或人生导师动不动就说：‘永远把家庭放在第一位，你绝对不会后悔。’

And I can't stand it when thought leaders or people giving advice or whatever say, you know, always prioritize family, you won't regret it.

也许吧。

Yeah, maybe.

我们生活在一个资本主义社会，钱不只是自由和选择权，更是健康。

We live in a capitalist society and money is not only freedom and optionality, it's health.

收入最高的那10%的家庭，平均寿命比最低的10%长七到十年。

People in the upper decile of income earning homes live seven to ten years longer than people in the lowest decile.

所以我觉得，你得和伴侣达成共识，明白根本不存在所谓的平衡，只有取舍。

So I think you just have to get alignment with your partner and recognize there is no balance, there's just trade off.

你可能会选择搬到生活成本更低的地方，精打细算，和妻子一起决定把家庭放在首位，每周工作四十小时，带孩子打棒球，去教堂，做个典型的美国普通人，过上挺不错的生活。

So you might decide that you want to move to a lower cost part of the world, manage your finances tightly, and you and your wife decide that you're gonna prioritize family and you're gonna work forty hours a week and coach Little League and go to church and be a good American and have a really nice life.

很多人确实这么做了，过得挺开心，还能用三十万美元买套房子。

And a lot of people do that and are happy and move to a place where they can buy a house for $300,000.

所以啊，有不少人过着这样的日子，过得非常满足。

So that is, you know, there's a lot of people are very happy living that life.

但我并不想过那样的生活。

I didn't want to live that life.

我想要更多的钱。

I wanted more money.

我想住在纽约。

I wanted to live in New York.

我想要更多，说不上具体是什么，反正不是想追求所谓的‘重要性’，而是希望有更大的社会影响力吧。

I wanted to be more, I don't know what the terms, don't want say call it, more relevant, but I wanted more curb success if you will.

我一直对钱的事特别没安全感。

And I've always been very insecure about money.

所以我做了这个取舍的决定，和伴侣达成一致：会有很长一段时间我得在外奔波，两三周不回家。

So I made the decision for that trade off, and that is I got alignment with my partner and I said, there's gonna be times when I'm on the road for two or three weeks.

以前我经营一家叫L2的公司，帮奢侈品牌评估他们的数字能力，而这些品牌大多集中在巴黎、米兰，我还要飞去首尔见三星，再到德国因戈尔施塔特见奥迪。

Used to, I was running a company called L2, which helped luxury brands benchmark their digital competence, and luxury brands happened to be located a lot in Paris or Milan or, you know, I would travel to Seoul to meet with Samsung, and then to Inglesstadt, Germany to meet with Audi.

有几次我出差两三个星期回家，偷偷探头进孩子房间，那时候他们跟你差不多大，我才发现，他们又长高了。

And I remember coming home a few times after being on the road for two or three weeks, and I'd look and peer my head into my kid's room when they were your age, and I'd noticed they physically had grown since I left.

每次看到这个，心里就特别不是滋味。

I'm gonna get all bummed out.

但我和伴侣商量好了，我们想要的是，将来老了之后，能有金钱带来的选择自由。

But me and my partner decided that we wanted the optionality later in life that money affords you.

我现在真的特别平衡。

I tremendous have amount of balance right now.

你知道的，我可以随时飞回纽约，然后去陪陪孩子们。

You know, can fly home whenever I want them in New York, and then I'm going to go spend some time with my kids.

我一个孩子正和他妈妈在多洛米蒂徒步，接下来我们全家还要去看世界杯，能有这样的经历真的特别棒。

One of my kids is in the Dolomites hiking with his mom, and then we're all, you know, we're going to World Cup, and we just get to do these amazing have these amazing experiences.

我这会儿有点炫耀了，但这一切都是有代价的。

We I mean, I'm boasting now, but it came at a cost.

我现在有这么多自由和乐趣，是因为当年他们还小的时候，我每天工作十四个小时，错过了很多。

I don't I have so much optionality now and fun things in my life because, boss, I was working like fourteen hours a day when they were babies, and even kids, I missed a lot.

我真的错过太多了。

I don't wanna I missed a lot.

但对我来说，这一切都值得。

Now for me, it was worth it.

但你拼了命地干，最后却没成功，那真的会很遗憾。

And there's always a risk you work that hard and you don't get there, and then you're like, that's really a bummer.

但我决定，我能掌控的只有自己有多努力，所以我选择了付出这个代价。

But I decided the one thing I could control was how hard I worked, and I made that sacrifice.

最重要的是，我和伴侣在这点上达成了一致，我们都打算这么走，她也特别支持我。

And most importantly, I had alignment with my partner that that's what we were gonna do, and she was very supportive of that.

但这确实是有代价的。

But it comes at a cost.

我觉得你得和伴侣坐下来好好聊聊，搞清楚什么对你来说才是真正重要的，同时也要认清现实——在现在的资本主义社会里，如果你有经济保障，很多事情对你和孩子都会容易得多。

I think you just got to sit down with your partner, establish what is really important to you, recognizing the realities of capitalist society where there's a lot of things that are just gonna be easier for you and your kids if you have a certain amount of economic security.

要达到这种保障，就必须做出真正的牺牲和取舍。

That comes at a, in order to achieve that it requires real sacrifice and real trade offs.

我觉得你得来一场清醒的对话。

And I just think you have to have a sober conversation.

我有时候跟年轻人聊天，觉得挺让人沮丧的，我会问他们，三十岁、三十五岁的时候，打算赚多少钱。

And what I find a little bit disheartening sometimes when I talk to young people is I ask them how much money they expect to be making at 30 or 35.

这可能有点近因偏差，因为我接触的这些孩子都在商学院，个个都很有抱负。

And some of this is proximity bias, because the kids I'm around are very ambitious at a business school.

但我觉得，有八成的人都觉得自己至少能进前10%，甚至冲进前1%。

But I'd say 80% of them expect to be in the top 10%, if not the top 1%.

然后他们还老提什么‘平衡’。

And then they use the word balance.

老兄，除非你运气好，生在有钱人家，否则别再想这事儿了。

Like, bitch, unless you're smart enough to be born smart enough to have rich parents, get over that.

我不认识任何一个人，能进入前10%，更别说前1%的，而不付出巨大的代价——牺牲关系、健康、生活质量，还有心理状态。

I don't know anyone who gets to the top 10%, much less the top 1%, without making a huge sacrifice in their relationships, their health, their quality of life, their mental well-being.

这事儿真的很难。

Shit is hard.

你知道吗，工作这事儿，全球人均收入大概就在一万六到一万八美金左右。

You know, work is really there's a lot of there's what is it the average income per capita globally at 16 or $18,000.

所以如果你想要的比这多，那你要么更创新，要么更拼命，要么生在比他们更好的地方。

So if you want more than that, you're gonna have to be more innovative or work harder or be born in a better place than those people.

所以我觉得，得冷静地谈一谈这些取舍，然后搞清楚自己想在哪个位置，再跟伴侣坦诚沟通，达成共识。

So, you know, I just think it requires a sober conversation about the trade offs, and then to get alignment, decide where you want to be on that spectrum of trade off, and then to have an honest conversation and get alignment with your partner.

但老兄，我真没法告诉你该选哪条路。

But boss, I don't, I can't tell you which way to go.

我觉得这是个非常个人的选择。

I think it's a very personal decision.

我选择了追求经济上的稳定。

I went the way of trying to maximize economic security.

这其中一部分，可能也跟自尊心有关。

And you know, some of that is probably also ego.

我的自我价值感来自工作，说起来有点可悲，但确实是实情。

I get my identity from work, which is sort of pathetic, but it's true.

对我而言，这条路是走通了的。

And it worked out for me.

所以我常常劝年轻人，趁年轻时先吃点苦。

So I have a tendency to tell people to sacrifice when they're young.

但你要想想，什么叫成熟？就是懂得为未来做打算。

But if you think about what it means to be mature, it's prioritizing the future.

而这就意味着现在要做出牺牲。

And that is sacrifice now.

想想现在的教育体系。

Think about the education system.

全球的教育体系本质上都在做同一件事：教孩子们学会现在吃苦，未来才有回报。

The education system is basically everywhere trying to do one thing, and that is trying to help kids connect, sacrifice now with reward later.

别跳过这一步。

Jump it.

现在去打游戏吧。

Play video games now.

好好准备化学考试，这样成绩才能好，才能进更好的学校，获得更多机会，找到更靠谱的伴侣，晚年过上安稳日子，而不是一辈子都被焦虑和挫败感折磨。

Study for your chemistry exam because you'll get better grades, get into a better school, have better opportunities, find a higher character mate, and die in a nice home as opposed to having frustration and anxiety your whole life.

说到底，所有这些都在教人优先考虑未来。

Everything is about trying to prioritize the future, if you will.

那这说明了什么？

So, you know, what does that lend to?

大概就是：现在吃点苦，换来以后的好处。

Probably sacrifice now versus later.

但很多人回头一看，都会后悔没多陪陪孩子。

But, a you lot of people look back and regret not spending more time with their kids.

我后悔吗？

Do I regret it?

我不后悔，我只是想念那段时光。

No, I miss it.

我当然希望当时能多陪陪他们，但现在我和孩子们相处的时间已经很多了。

I would have liked to have had more, but I have a lot of time with my kids now.

说得有点乱。

Word salad.

人生就是各种取舍。

Life is trade offs.

根本不存在什么平衡。

There is no balance.

你得想清楚，自己想站在哪一边。

Decide where you wanna be on the spectrum.

和你的伴侣保持步调一致。

Get alignment with your partner.

本期节目就到这里。

That's all for this episode.

如果你想提问，请把语音留言发送到 officehours@prop.com。

If you'd like to submit a question, please email a voice recording to office hours of prop dot com.

再次提醒，邮箱是 officehours@prop.com。

Again, that's office hours of prop gmedia dot com.

如果你更喜欢在 Reddit 上提问，就去 Scott Galloway 的子版块发帖，我们可能会在下一期节目中选用你的问题。

Or if you prefer to ask on Reddit, just post your question on the Scott Galloway subreddit, and we might feature it in an upcoming episode.

本期节目由詹妮弗·桑切斯和劳拉·詹纳制作。

This episode was produced by Jennifer Sanchez and Laura Jenner.

塔米·里克负责社交媒体运营。

Tammy Rick is our social producer.

布拉德·威廉姆斯担任剪辑。

Brad Williams is our editor.