中国解码：特朗普让步，苹果加码中国

在一个平凡的早晨，巴布的一天毫无预兆地忙碌起来。

Once upon a mundane morning, Barb's day got busy without warning.

一位需要开放日标牌的房地产经纪人。

A realtor in need of an open house sign.

不。

No.

五十个。

50 of them.

并且要在九点前设计好。

And designed before nine.

我的头好痛。

My head hurts.

有什么强力工具能帮上这个管道的忙吗？

Any mighty tools to help with this pipe?

巴布采取了行动。

Barb made her move.

她打开了Canva，进入了状态。

She opened Canva and got in the groove.

通过创建Canva模板，轻松制作出50块适合郊区街道的标牌。

Both creating Canva sheets create 50 signs fit for suburban streets.

一键完成？

Done in a click?

全部搞定。

All complete.

太棒了。

Sweet.

现在想象一下，当你在canva.com上发挥想象力时，你的梦想会变成什么样子。

Now imagine what your dreams can become when you put imagination to work at canva.com.

本节目由Ateo赞助支持，Ateo是为现代企业打造的AI客户关系管理工具。

Support for this show comes from Ateo, the AI CRM for modern businesses.

有些团队成交速度是别人的两倍，总能快人一步，时刻准备就绪。

There are teams closing deals twice as fast as everyone else, always one step ahead, always prepared.

但他们究竟是怎么做到的呢？

But how are they doing that?

结果发现，他们正在使用Attio。

Come to find out, they're using Attio.

Attio将你的邮件、通话、产品数据等连接起来，让你随时掌握每位客户的完整信息。

Attio connects your email, calls, product data, and more so you always have complete contacts on every customer.

然后你可以让Attio帮你规划下一步行动、起草 outreach、发现有风险的交易，并了解任何事项的进展。

You can then ask Attio to plan your next move, draft outreach, spot deals at risk, and find out where anything stands.

让你的CRM做更多事。

Ask more from your CRM.

问Attio吧。

Ask Attio.

你可以访问 attio.com/vox，享受首年15%的折扣。

You can go to attio.com/vox and you'll get 15% off your first year.

那就是 attio.com/vox。

That's a ttio.com/vox.

你的企业身份涵盖客户能看到和看不到的一切，比如法律文件、网站安全和州级许可证。

Your business identity is everything from what customers see to what they don't, like legal paperwork, website security, and state licenses.

现在，你可以通过西北注册代理公司为你的企业获得更多支持。

Well, now you can get more for your business with Northwest Registered Agent.

西北注册代理公司近三十年来一直帮助创业者启动和扩展业务。

Northwest Registered Agent has been helping entrepreneurs launch and grow businesses for nearly thirty years.

他们是美国最大的注册代理和有限责任公司服务提供商，拥有超过1500名企业顾问。

They're the largest registered agent and LLC service in The US with over 1,500 corporate guides.

别再拖延了。

Don't wait.

只需点击10次、花费10分钟，即可保护你的隐私、建立你的品牌，并获得完整的企业身份。

Protect your privacy, build your brand, and get your complete business identity in just 10 clicks and ten minutes.

访问 northwestregisteredagent.com/paidvox，开始打造非凡的事业。

Visit northwestregisteredagent.com/paidvox and start building something amazing.

前往 northwestregisteredagent.com/paidvox，获得更多服务，选择西北注册代理公司。

Get more with Northwest Registered Agent at northwestregisteredagent.com/paidvox.

蒂姆·库克目前正在中国。

Tim Cook is in China at the moment.

他一直在开设一家大型门店，此前他还参加了在北京举行的中国发展论坛，并在会上使用了一些措辞上的调整。

He's been opening a big store, and previous to that, he was at the China Development Forum in Beijing, and there he was using some modifying language.

他说，我们致力于与中国各地的合作伙伴以及在座各位携手，将苹果的这一进步愿景变为现实。

He said, we are committed to collaborating with our partners across China and with all of you to make this vision of progress at Apple a reality.

这并没有直接回应问题，但我认为其目的是缓和中国部分日益转向反对苹果的舆论。

It didn't really seem to address the issue head on, but I think it was supposed to mollify opinion in China that is turning against Apple to some degree.

在我看来，苹果在中国所面临的情况是，它正受到中国政府的压力，要求做出商业让步，而它已经做出了一次让步，但中国还想获得更多。

So to me, what is happening to Apple in China is that it's being pressured by the Chinese government to make commercial concessions, and it's already made one, but China wants more.

欢迎收看《中国解读》。

Welcome to China Decode.

我是韩爱丽丝。

I'm Alice Han.

我是詹姆斯·金奇。

And I'm James Kynge.

在今天这一期《中国解读》中，我们将讨论蒂姆·库克的中国之行如何凸显苹果对中国大陆iPhone销售的依赖，特朗普推迟北京峰会如何暴露了美国与中国在伊朗冲突背景下更广泛的竞争，以及中国博物馆热潮如何重塑其文化。

In today's episode of China Decode, we're discussing how Tim Cook's China visit highlights Apple's reliance on iPhone sales in the Mainland, why Trump's Beijing summit delay exposes the broader context of US China competition in the Iran conflict, and how China's museum boom is reshaping its culture.

以上内容即将展开，但首先，让我们快速了解一下中国市场的本周开局情况。

Now that's all coming up, but first, let's do a quick check-in with how the Chinese markets are starting the week.

周一，上证A股指数和恒生H股指数均下跌近4%，投资者纷纷调整策略以应对货币政策可能收紧的前景。

On Monday, both the Shanghai a share index and the Hang Seng h share index closed down nearly 4% as investors scrambled to adapt to the possibility of tighter monetary policy.

这是自解放日关税公告以来恒生指数最糟糕的一天，无疑受到伊朗危机的影响。

This was the worst day for the Hang Seng since the Liberation Day tariff announcement, no doubt affected by the Iran crisis.

由于金价暴跌，贵金属公司老铺黄金和西金矿业集团股价跌幅超过5%，科技巨头阿里巴巴和腾讯当日也收跌。

Precious metals company, Lau Pou Gold and Xi Jin Mining Group fell more than 5% after the price of gold tumbled, and tech giants Alibaba and Tencent both ended the day in the red.

在进入本期节目之前，先做一个简短公告。

Before we go to the episode, a quick announcement.

《中国解读》现在推出了每周简报。

China Decode now has a weekly newsletter.

我们将超越播客中讨论的主题，为您提供更多关于本周中国最重要新闻的数据与深度分析。

We go beyond the topics we cover here on the podcast and give you even more data and analysis on the most important stories coming out of China this week.

请前往 chinadecode.profgmedia.com 订阅。

Subscribe at chinadecode.profgmedia.com.

目前是免费的，所以一定要尽快订阅。

It's free for now, so be sure you get subscribed soon.

网址是 chinadecode.profgmedia.com。

That's chinadecode.profgmedia.com.

好的。

Alright.

我们开始吧。

Let's get into it.

上周，蒂姆·库克前往中国成都参加了一场高调的苹果商店活动，庆祝公司成立五十周年。

Last week, Tim Cook was in Chengdu, China for a high profile Apple Store event marking the company's fiftieth anniversary.

他的到访凸显了中国对苹果公司依然至关重要，尽管中美关系紧张，且中国监管机构正推动更开放的 App Store 生态系统。

His visit underscored how crucial China remains for Apple even as The US China tensions rise and regulators in China push for a more open App Store ecosystem.

在中国大陆，iPhone 销售额持续飙升，2026 年迄今已增长 23%，而整个智能手机市场却在萎缩。

IPhone sales are booming in The Mainland, up 23 so far in 2026, while the broader smartphone market shrinks.

与此同时，苹果已将中国地区的App Store佣金从30%降至25%，但北京方面正暗示希望获得更多的让步。

Meanwhile, Apple has cut its App Store fees in China from 30% to 25%, though Beijing is signaling it wants more concessions.

尽管苹果依赖iPhone实现增长，但其在人工智能领域仍难以取得突破。

Despite Apple leaning on the iPhone for growth, Apple is still struggling to find traction in AI.

詹姆斯，这是一个令人兴奋的话题，因为正如你所记得的，我们曾经邀请过帕特里克·米吉，他写过《苹果在中国》。

James, this is an exciting topic because we did have, as you recall, Patrick Magee, who wrote Apple in China.

所以，这是我们之前讨论过的话题。

So this is a topic that we've discussed previously.

但让我感到有趣的是，与一两年前的讨论相比，苹果在中国并没有彻底衰落。

But what has been interesting to me relative to, I would say, the discussion a year or two ago is that Apple is not quite dead in China.

你知道，尽管我们听到了一些故事，也看到了数据，显示制造正进一步向印度或东南亚转移，而中国国内市场正更强烈地转向本土品牌，比如华为或OPPO，但今年的强劲表现以及蒂姆·库克的中国之行表明，苹果依然拥有市场空间。

You know, even though we have heard stories and seen data of manufacturing moving further south to India, for instance, or Southeast Asia, and that the market within China is is shifting more strongly to the local variants, whether it's Huawei or Oppo, it seems that the strong performance this year and Tim Cook's trip to China suggests that there still is a market for Apple.

我只是不太确定这种势头能持续多久，但确实，从中国社交媒体上看，尤其是新推出的橙色iPhone 17，因为被称为‘爱马仕橙’——就像爱马仕设计师品牌那样——已经火遍全网。

I'm just not really sure how sustainable it is, but certainly, I've seen from Chinese social media that this especially the orange cased iPhone that came out, iPhone 17, has been viral because it's known as the Hermes orange, like the Hermes designer brand.

那么，詹姆斯，你对此有什么看法？

But what what's your take on this, James?

是的。

Yes.

我认为中国对苹果公司仍然至关重要。

I think China remains highly important to Apple.

对我来说，这个故事远不止是苹果在中国的业务那么简单。

And to me, this story is really bigger than just Apple in China.

这个故事表明，在这种情况下，当中国说跳，苹果就会跳，至少在某种程度上是这样。

This is a story that says, in this case, when China says jump, Apple will jump, at least to some degree.

这是因为苹果在中国市场投入了大量资源，并且从中国获得了很大比例的全球收入。

That's because Apple has invested so much in the China market and because Apple gets such a large proportion of its global revenues from China.

我认为这是一个重大问题的原因是，苹果并不是唯一一家在中国市场经历这种动态的公司。

And the reason why I think this is such a big issue is because Apple is not the only company experiencing these types of dynamics in the China market.

事实上，有许多美国公司和欧洲公司也面临同样的情况：中国对它们如此重要，以至于当中国政府要求它们这样做或那样做时，完全忽视这些指示将是鲁莽的。

In fact, there are lots of US companies and lots of European companies that are in the same boat that China is so important to them that when the government of China says you've gotta do this or you've gotta do that, they would be rash to ignore such instructions completely.

正如你提到的，我们曾邀请帕特里克·米吉做客播客，他说中国实际上已经掌控了美国最著名的企业。

And as you mentioned, we had Patrick Magee on the podcast, and he said that basically China has captured America's most famous company.

一个令人震惊的事实是，苹果在股票市场的估值约为3.7万亿美元，但真正掌控局面的并非公司的股东，至少在中国不是。

It's an extraordinary realization that Apple is worth about 3,700,000,000,000.0 US dollars on the stock market, but it isn't really the company's shareholders that actually call the shots, at least not in China.

在中国，掌握决策权的是中国政府。

In China, it's the Chinese government that calls the shots.

因此，正如你开头提到的，艾丽斯，苹果不得不降低其面向中国用户的应用商店抽成比例。

And that's why, as you mentioned at the top, Alice, Apple had to bring down, the commission it earns on the Apple, App Store for Chinese users.

正如我所说，苹果并不是唯一一家从中国获得巨大比例全球收入的公司。

As I mentioned, Apple is not the only company that derives a huge proportion of its total global revenues from China.

在美国，还有其他公司处于类似境地。

In The US, there are other companies in the same bracket.

半导体制造商高通就是其中之一。

Qualcomm, the semiconductor maker is one.

德州仪器是另一家。

Texas Instruments is another.

特斯拉，当然，它生产汽车，同时也生产能源生成与存储技术。

Tesla, which of course makes cars and also energy generation and storage technology.

美光、科沃、博通，这些美国的芯片制造商都属于同一类别，这只是其中几个例子。

Micron, Corvo, Broadcom, all chipmakers from The US are in the same bracket just to name a few.

来自欧洲的有ASML——这家庞大的荷兰半导体设备制造商，德国的汽车制造商大众和宝马，德国的大型工业公司如巴斯夫和西门子，瑞士的奢侈品公司历峰集团，以及矿业公司力拓，这些公司都从中国获得了很大比例的全球收入。

From Europe, ASML, the huge Dutch semiconductor equipment manufacturer, the carmakers from Germany, v VW and BMW, the big German industrial companies like BASF and Siemens, the Swiss luxury company Richemont, Rio Tinto, the mining company, all of these companies derive a very large proportion of their global revenues from China.

因此，当中国政府对这些公司发表意见、发布命令或指示时，它们若公然拒绝，将是极其鲁莽的行为。

And therefore, when the Chinese government says something or issues an order or an instruction to these companies, they would be very rash to refuse that instruction point blank.

我认为，这是西方公司在中国大量投资时所陷入的整个商业和地缘政治动态中的关键方面。

And I think this is this is a crucial aspect of the whole commercial, and geopolitical dynamic that you that the western companies get into when they start investing so much in China.

但让我们回到苹果公司的问题上。

But let's just return to the question of Apple.

事情的经过是，本月早些时候，作为中国共产党喉舌的《人民日报》批评了苹果的垄断行为。

What happened, in order was that earlier this month, the People's Daily, which, of course, is the mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party, criticized Apple for its monopolistic behavior.

这发生在苹果宣布将中国大陆App Store的常规佣金从30%降至25%后的几天内。

This came just days after Apple said it would drop its typical commission on the Mainland App Store purchases from 30% to 25%.

这对苹果来说是一个重大让步，因为这使其App Store佣金低于美国用户的水平。

This was a big concession by Apple because it drops the App Store commission to below what it is for US users.

但这对中国来说还不够。

But it wasn't enough for China.

《人民日报》的社论指出，中国用户和开发者仍面临许多北京认为具有反竞争性质的限制。

The People's Daily editorial said that Chinese users and developers still face many restrictions that Beijing believes are anticompetitive.

我们只能拭目以待苹果未来会如何行动。

And we'll have to see what Apple does in the future.

正如你提到的，蒂姆·库克目前在中国。

As you mentioned, Tim Cook is in China at the moment.

他正在开设一家大型门店，此前他还参加了在北京举行的中国发展论坛。

He's been opening a big store, and previous to that, he was at the China Development Forum in Beijing.

在那里，他使用了一些措辞较为委婉的表达。

And there, he was using some modifying language.

他说：我们致力于与中国各地的合作伙伴以及各位共同努力，实现苹果这一进步愿景。

He said, we are committed to collaborating with our partners across China and with all of you to make this vision of progress at Apple a reality.

这并没有直接回应问题，但我认为其目的是为了缓和中国部分日益转向反对苹果的舆论。

It didn't really seem to address the issue head on, but I think it was supposed to mollify opinion in China that is turning against Apple to some degree.

所以在我看来，苹果在中国所经历的是，它正受到中国政府的压力，要求做出商业让步，而它已经做出了一次让步，但中国还想获得更多。

So to me, what is happening to Apple in China is that it's being pressured by the Chinese government to make commercial concessions, and it's already made one, but China wants more.

是的。

Yeah.

这很有趣。

It's interesting.

詹姆斯，我同意你所有的观点。

I agree with all these points, James.

我只是想换一个角度来分析这个问题，从中国消费者的视角来看。

I would just take another, you know, vector of analysis to this and and look at it from the vantage point of Chinese consumers.

因为如果我们两年前聊这个话题，我会说，苹果的前景已经很明显了。

Because if we had this conversation two years ago, I would have said, you know, the writing is in the wall for Apple.

中国正在推出配备卓越摄像头的出色手机。

You know, China is making amazing phones with amazing cameras.

你看看小米，再看看华为。

You know, you just look at Xiaomi, you'll go to Huawei.

而且它们以极低的价格生产出性能出色的手机，还配备了AI芯片。

And they're making great phones for a fraction of the price, and they have, you know, AI chips installed as well.

因此在人工智能领域也极具竞争力。

So super competitive in the AI domain as well.

如果我是苹果，我会感到担忧，但我认为这又引出了一个问题：这种趋势能否长期持续？

I would be worried if I were Apple, but I think, again, this is begs the question, is this sustainable long term?

似乎仍然存在对苹果产品的需求。

There seems to be still a market for Apple.

也许并非来自有抱负的中产阶级。

Maybe it's not the aspirational middle class.

也许是中国社会上层仍能负担得起苹果iPhone的人群。

Maybe it's the upper echelons of of Chinese society that can still afford to buy an Apple iPhone.

但这种现象的传播性让我感到非常有趣。

But the virality of it was really interesting to me.

在中文里，‘橙’字与‘成’字谐音，意味着成功。所以在马年，很多人谈论这款橙色手机，认为它非常幸运、吉祥。

So in in Chinese, the which is the the word for orange, sounds like the word for success, So, you know, in the year of the horse, every a lot of people were talking about this this this orange colored phone was seen as being very lucky or auspicious.

因此，这无疑是iPhone 17之所以成为一款非常成功机型的部分原因。

So that was part of the virality certainly of the iPhone 17 that made it very, successful as a model.

但从长远来看，我担心的是苹果在人工智能生态系统中的地位。

But longer term, what I worry about is Apple's place in AI ecosystem.

因为在美國，苹果在这一轮竞赛中也落后于人工智能提供商，比如大型语言模型公司、Frontier Labs，像OpenAI、Claude，甚至包括数据中心提供商如甲骨文或Salesforce。

Because in The US too, I mean, Apple is behind in this horse race compared to the AI providers, but the, you know, the AI downstream and upstream providers, whether it's, you know, the LLMs, Frontier Labs, like OpenAI, Claude, or even if it's the, you know, the data center providers like Oracle or Salesforce.

我不清楚他们是否会真正利用人工智能。

It it's not clear to me that they're going to take advantage of AI.

更重要的是，在中国语境下，这究竟会如何运作？

And more importantly, in the Chinese context, how is it actually gonna work?

到目前为止，苹果推出的Apple Intelligence——即它在所有iPhone上提供的生成式AI产品——在西方市场已上线，但在中国尚未推出。

So as of yet, Apple's Apple Intelligence, so it's AI you know, generative AI product that it offers on all its iPhones, which are available in the West, is not available yet in China.

它需要获得批准。

It's subject to approval.

据称，这一审批流程去年夏天因贸易争端而被推迟。

Now, apparently, that approval process was delayed by the trade disputes last summer.

所以我们得看看今年他们是否最终能获得批准，因为截至目前，其他中国手机在设备端AI市场上的表现将更为先进。

So we're gonna have to see whether this year they will finally get the green light, because as of yet, these other phones, these other Chinese phones are gonna be more advanced in in the on device AI market.

接下来的问题是，苹果将如何整合我们所看到的这些新出现的代理式AI技术？

And then the next, you know, question is, how will Apple integrate some of the new moves in Agenic AI that we're seeing?

我们刚刚看到，腾讯的OpenClaw个人助手或代理式AI表现不及预期，因此其股价显然受到了冲击。

You know, we've we've just seen announcement that Tencent's OpenClaw personal assistant or Agenic AI has disappointed to the downside, and so, you know, that's obviously taken a hit in terms of stock price.

但随着AI的发展，正如我们之前讨论过的，詹姆斯，下一个问题是设备将如何嵌入这些个人助手和代理式AI平台。

But I think the next question as we see AI evolve, and we've talked about this previously, James, is how a device is gonna embed these personal assistants, these agentic AI platforms.

我不确定苹果是否处于这一领域的前沿。

And I'm not sure if Apple is at the forefront of it.

我认为许多其他中国厂商已经走在前列，但我觉得相关数据非常惊人。

I think that a lot of the other Chinese providers are, but I think the statistics are pretty dazzling.

今年头两个月，同比增长率达到26%。

26% year on year growth in the first two months of this year.

以苹果的标准来看，这已经相当不错了。

That's pretty good by Apple standard.

你关于苹果和中国人工智能的见解非常精彩。

Those are great points you're making about Apple and AI in China.

中国公司在人工智能领域正迅速前进。

Chinese companies are really moving ahead quickly in AI.

全国各地有大量应用、各种用途以及人工智能初创企业。

The number of applications, of of of different uses, startups in AI all over the country.

目前在中国，这简直成了一种狂热，正如你所提出的可能性一样，如果苹果的AI产品因任何原因延迟进入中国市场，它确实有可能被甩在后面。

It's just it is a fever at the moment in China, and it's quite possible, as you raise the possibility that Apple could get left behind, particularly if its AI products are delayed for whatever reason, from coming into the China market.

我确实认为你指出的这一点是一个风险。

I really do see that as a as a risk, that you point out.

是的。

Yeah.

非常有趣。

Super interesting.

为了继续你刚才提到的，中国对苹果的制造仍然至关重要。

And just to continue what you said about how China still is really important for Apple's manufacturing.

苹果全球约80%的制造产能仍在中国，其中55%的MacBook产品、80%的iPad以及超过80%的iPhone都在中国生产。

It manufactures still about 80% of Apple's manufacturing capacity globally, and that's 55% of the MacBook products, 80% of the iPads, and over 80% of the iPhones.

现在正大力推动印度提升其份额，但在未来几年的短期内，苹果似乎仍需依赖中国来制造全线产品。

Now there's a big push to get India to increase its share, but at least in the next few years, in the short term, it seems like they really still need China to manufacture Apple goods across the board.

好的。

Okay.

短暂休息后，我们马上回来继续。

We'll be back with more after a quick break.

请继续关注。

Stay with us.

本节目由Gusto赞助。

Support for the show comes from Gusto.

当你创业时，也意味着你要独自应对薪资和人力资源等繁琐复杂的事务。

When you start a business, you're also signing up for figuring out a bunch of tedious complicated stuff involving payroll and HR often on your own.

但使用Gusto，你就不用在晚上和周末猜税表或到处寻找入职文件了。

But with Gusto, you don't have to spend your evenings and weekends guessing on tax forms or tracking down onboarding docs.

Gusto 是专为中小企业打造的在线薪资与福利软件。

Gusto is online payroll and benefits software built for small businesses.

所有功能一体化，支持远程使用，极其易用，让你可以随时随地支付薪资、招聘、入职和支持团队。

It's all in one, remote friendly, and incredibly easy to use so you can pay, hire, onboard, and support your team from anywhere.

如果你曾因重复的行政事务而感到困扰，心想一定有更简单的方法，那正是 Gusto 设计来解决的问题。

If you've ever been stuck working on repetitive administrative tasks and thought to yourself there has to be an easier way, that's the kind of thing Gusto was built to solve.

他们表示，可以提供自动薪资报税、简便的直接存款、健康保险、通勤福利、工伤保险、401(k) 等等，应有尽有。

They say they can provide automatic payroll tax filings, simple direct deposits, health benefits, commuter benefits, workers' comp, four zero one k, you name it.

Gusto 让这一切变得简单，并提供适合几乎每种预算的方案。

Gusto makes it simple and has options for nearly every budget.

借助内置的自动化工具，节省时间，包括录用信、入职文件、直接存款等。

Save time with built in automated tools, offer letters, onboarding docs, direct deposit, and more.

使用 Gusto，你可以直接联系认证的人力资源专家，帮助你应对任何棘手的人力资源问题。

With Gusto, you can get direct access to certified HR experts to help support you through any tough HR situation.

立即在 gusto.com/provg 试用 Gusto，首次发放薪资时可享受三个月免费。

Try Gusto today at gusto.com/provg and get three months free when you run your first payroll.

在 gusto.com/profg 获取三个月的免费薪资服务。

That's three months of free payroll at gusto.com/profg.

再强调一次，gusto.com/profg。

One more time, gusto.com/profg.

你好。

Hi.

我是布琳·布朗。

I'm Brene Brown.

我是亚当·格兰特。

And I'm Adam Grant.

我们在这里邀请你来参加《好奇心商店》。

And we're here to invite you to The Curiosity Shop.

这是一档专注于倾听、探索、思考、感受与质疑的播客。

A podcast that's a place for listening, wondering, thinking, feeling, and questioning.

一定会很有趣。

It's gonna be fun.

我们很少意见一致。

We rarely agree.

但我们几乎从不意见相左，而且总是在学习。

But we almost never disagree, and we're always learning.

确实如此。

That's true.

你可以在YouTube上订阅《好奇心商店》，或在你喜欢的播客应用中关注我们，每周四自动接收新 episodes。

You can subscribe to the Curiosity Shop on YouTube or follow in your favorite podcast app to automatically receive new episodes every Thursday.

本节目由领英赞助。

Support for the show comes from LinkedIn.

当最好的B2B营销用在了错误的受众身上时，真是太可惜了。

It's a shame when the best b to b marketing gets wasted on the wrong audience.

比如，想象一下在周六早间的卡通节目上投放白内障手术广告，或者在关于Roblox的视频里推广这个节目。

Like, imagine running an ad for cataract surgery on Saturday morning cartoons or running a promo for this show a video about Roblox or something.

并非针对我们的Gen Alpha听众无礼，但这无疑是在浪费任何人的广告预算。

No offense to our Gen Alpha listeners, but that would be a waste of anyone's ad budget.

所以当你想触达正确的专业人士时，可以使用LinkedIn广告。

So when you wanna reach the right professionals, you can use LinkedIn ads.

根据他们的数据，LinkedIn已经发展成为一个拥有超过10亿专业人士和1.3亿决策者的网络。

LinkedIn has grown to a network of over 1,000,000,000 professionals and a 130,000,000 decision according to their data.

这正是它与其他广告投放方式的不同之处。

That's where it stands apart from other ad buys.

你可以根据职位、行业、公司角色、职级、技能、公司营收等精准定位你的买家，从而避免在错误的受众身上浪费预算。

You can target your buyers by job title, industry, company role, seniority, skills, company revenue, all so you can stop wasting budget on the wrong audience.

因此，LinkedIn广告拥有所有在线广告网络中最高的B2B广告投资回报率之一。

That's why LinkedIn ads boast one of the highest b to b return on ad spend of all online ad networks.

真的，所有的广告网络里都是最高的。

Seriously, all of them.

在LinkedIn广告上为你的首个活动投入250美元，即可获得下一次活动250美元的免费额度。

Spend $250 on your first campaign on LinkedIn ads and get a free $250 credit for the next one.

只需前往linkedin.com/Scott即可。

Just go to linkedin.com Scott.

那就是linkedin.com，Scott。

That's linkedin.com Scott.

条款和条件适用。

Terms and conditions apply.

欢迎回来。

Welcome back.

特朗普推迟了与习近平的北京峰会，这在国际外交和市场中引发了连锁反应。

Trump's postponement of his Beijing summit with Xi Jinping is sending ripples through global diplomacy and markets.

中国官员感到沮丧，而《环球时报》等官方媒体则嘲讽这一延迟，暗示美国正利用这场冲突迫使中国参与波斯湾霍尔木兹海峡的维稳工作。

Chinese officials are frustrated, and state run outlets like the Global Times are mocking the delay, suggesting The US is using the conflict to pull China into policing the Strait Of Hormuz.

与此同时，北京在幕后将伊朗危机视为以牺牲美国利益来获取政治资本的机会。

Meanwhile, behind the scenes, Beijing sees the Iran crisis as a chance to make political capital at the expense of The US.

詹姆斯，我很多从事石油交易或一般交易的朋友都彻夜难眠。

James, it's been sleepless nights for a lot of my friends who are oil traders or just traders in general.

我很好奇你最近几周情况如何，但我注意到中国媒体对伊朗的报道非常少，甚至比对委内瑞拉的报道还要少。

I'm I'm curious how you've been faring in the last few weeks, but I have been struck by the lack of real Chinese media coverage on Iran, I think even relative to Venezuela.

显然，最近发布的五年计划和一些国内数据受到了大量关注。

There's been a lot of focus obviously on the new five year plan that's come out on some of the domestic data that have come out.

但我注意到，中国媒体对伊朗的讨论并不多，而且中国也没有对美国的行动表现出强烈批评。

But I've been struck how there hasn't been a lot of talk within Chinese media about Iran and how China actually hasn't been that vocally critical of The US's campaign.

如果我们在未来几天看到特朗普增加地面部队，试图稳定海峡或甚至打击德黑兰的领导层，这种情况可能会改变。

Now that may change if we, in the coming days, see Trump escalate in terms of boots on the ground to try to stabilize the strait or even decapitate the leadership in Tehran.

但目前，我感觉中国正在采取观望态度，等待事态发展。

But right now, I sense that the Chinese are playing a wait and see game to see what pans out.

他们刚刚派遣了一名特使前往中东地区，与海湾国家和伊朗进行会谈。

They've just sent a special envoy to the Middle East, to the region to talk to the Gulf States, to the Iranians.

我感觉中国可能在早期就试图参与一个长期的外交和平进程。

I sense that maybe there are moves early on to see if they can be involved in a in a longer term diplomatic peace process.

但目前来看，北京仍在采取观望态度。

But right now, it seems like Beijing is playing a wait and see game.

你有什么看法？

What's your view?

是的。

Yes.

当然。

Absolutely.

我认为，中国目前的策略是利用美国的行动来获取舆论上的优势。

I think China's strategy for the moment is to make rhetorical capital out of The US actions.

特别是最近，总理李强在中国发展论坛上发表了一次演讲，这个论坛是中国版的达沃斯。

I thought, in particular, recently, Li Qiang, the premier, made a speech at the China Development Forum, which is China's version of Davos.

这是一个西方企业首席执行官与中国官员以及西方学者聚集的地方，这些人都会可靠地赞扬中国。

It's a place where CEOs of companies from the West who can be relied upon to praise China, collect with Chinese officials and academics from the West who can also be relied upon to lavish praise on China.

这个活动上周末在北京举行。

And this took place over the weekend, in Beijing.

如果你看看李强总理在钓鱼台国宾馆面对这些齐聚的贵宾所讲的话，他说中国致力于成为确定性的基石，以及在贸易保护主义上升和基于规则的国际秩序动荡的世界中的稳定港湾。

And, if you look at what premier Li Qiang said in front of all of these assembled dignitaries in the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse, he said that China was committed to being a cornerstone of certainty and, quote, a harbor of stability, in in a world that is dominated by rising trade protectionism and up heavals in the rules based international order.

他从未点名提及美国，但很明显，他是在将中国的角色与美国的角色进行对比。

He did not mention The US by name at any point, but it was very clear that he was making a contrast between China's role and the role of The US.

他还谈到贸易时表示，希望优化和平衡贸易发展，扩大与全球其他地区的经济贸易联系。

He also said, talking about trade, that he wanted to optimize and balance the development of trade and expand global economic and trade ties with the rest of the world.

在我看来，尽管这是对美国的间接提及，但确实强烈地批评了华盛顿。

And to me, you know, although this was an oblique reference to The US, it really struck a very strong point, against Washington.

我认为中国发展论坛上另一件非常引人注目的事是，央行行长潘功胜指出，他针对美元发出了批评，虽然没有点名美国，但他将一些国家持续的贸易逆差归因于一个由单一主权货币主导的国际货币体系。

The other thing I thought was really fascinating about what went on at the China Development Forum was that the governor of the central bank, Pan Gongsheng, said that, he he sort of took aim at The US, dollar, and he described, without naming The US, he described some countries' persistent trade deficits as being the result of a, quote, international monetary system dominated by a single sovereign currency.

换句话说，他是在说，美国所有的贸易逆差部分源于美元的强势，借此为中国的1.2万亿美元贸易顺差开脱。

So basically he's saying that all of The US trade deficits are partly the result of the strength of the US dollar, and he wanted to deflect criticism of China's 1,200,000,000,000.0 US dollar trade surplus in doing this.

因此，我认为这算得上是对美国相当直白的批评。

So I would say that this is a fairly blunt criticism of The US.

中国仍然不喜欢直接点名美国，我认为即便特朗普明显推迟了原定于4月1日的访华行程，中国仍希望他能访问中国。

China still doesn't like to call The US out by name, and I think it still wants president Trump to visit China even after he obviously postponed the visit that had been expected to take place on April 1.

但毫无疑问，目前中国正试图将自己描绘成全球的稳定之港，而美国却在参与对伊朗的战争，且这场战争有蔓延至伊朗以外地区的风险。

But certainly, I I would say at the moment that China's trying to portray itself as this harbor of stability for the world as The US engages in the war in Iran, and the war in Iran threatens to spread beyond Iran itself.

这很有趣。

It's interesting.

当我们之前讨论五年规划和两会时，我们谈了很多关于自主自给和供应链去风险化的内容。

When we talked about the five year plan and the two sessions in in a previous episode, we talked a lot about self sufficiency and and derisking in supply chains.

说到你的观点，当你引用中国人民银行行长的话时，我认为现在正发生一系列事件，共同指向去美元化这一主题——无论是央行行长提及，还是在中国媒体上频繁出现。

To your point, when when you quoted the PBOC governor, there is, I think, a sort of a collision of events right now pointing towards this theme of dedollarization, whether it's, you know, the PBOC governor talking about it, it's coming up in Chinese media.

我认为，无论伊朗局势如何发展，这一趋势早在五年规划中就已显现，即推动人民币的使用和贸易结算。

I think in in irrespective of what's happening in Iran, it came out of the five year plan as well to increase, you know, CNY usage and trade settlements.

我注意到一个特别有趣的数据显示。

I picked up on a particularly interesting data point.

过去几年，中国一直与香港、泰国、阿联酋和沙特阿拉伯等主要央行合作，这些国家和地区属于中东的海湾国家，旨在通过央行间桥梁增加以数字代币形式进行的跨境贸易结算。

So China over the last few years has been working with the major central banks of Hong Kong, Thailand, UAE, and Saudi Arabia, so some of these Gulf states in The Middle East, to increase trade settlements via these central bank bridges, you know, digital tokenized cross border transactions.

自2022年以来，通过这些央行桥梁使用的代币数量增长了2500倍。

And since 2022, we've seen 2,500 fold increase in the use of these these tokens through the these m bridges, so to speak.

这大约是550亿美元，其中约95%的结算金额是以人民币完成的，因为中国在外交和金融体系层面一直是这一举措的主要推动者。

That's about 55,000,000,000, and around, I think, 95% of that settlement of that sum is in yuan because China's been the big proponent of it diplomatically and and through these financial institutions.

在最近几天，中国宣布扩大将使用数字货币和人民币的商业银行数量。

And in the last couple days, we've seen China announce that they've expanded the number of commercial banks that are gonna use EC and Y.

我认为，这场危机的一个长期趋势可能是，海湾国家将越来越像俄罗斯。

I think that one of the longer term themes maybe from this crisis is that The Gulf States will become more and more like Russia.

如果我们回顾2022年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰以来俄中之间本币结算的增长，这显然有利于人民币的使用。

So if we think about the increase in UN settlement between Russia and China since 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine, that has been very favorable to CNY usage.

我们虽然没有确切的实地数据，但可以确认的是，人民币在跨境贸易结算中的使用，尤其是在石油和天然气领域，已经有所增加。

We we know we don't have the exact data on the ground, but there has been an increase in CNY usage in cross border trade settlement, notably for oil and gas.

我记得几年前，普京和习近平曾达成一项协议，由加兹普罗姆公司以50.50的人民币与卢布比例进行结算。

I believe a couple years ago, there was a Gazprom deal agreed by Putin and Xi in which there would be a $50.50 yuan ruble split in terms of settlement.

我认为，中国可能会因美国深陷财政困境而受益，通过推动人民币在全球贸易结算中的使用。

So I could foresee China actually benefiting from the morass and quagmire that The US has gotten itself into financially by increasing CNY usage in global trade settlement.

目前，根据SWIFT的数据，人民币在全球贸易结算中的占比约为8%。

Currently, according to Swift, it's about 8% of global trade settlement.

我认为，在未来几年内，这一比例很容易再上升几个百分点，这得益于人们对美国霸权、美国不稳定性及其引发的全球其他地区动荡的担忧。

That number could easily rise, I think, a couple of percentage points in the next couple years, helped along by, you know, concerns about US hegemony, concerns about US instability, and and the instability it's causing in other regions around the world.

詹姆斯，我想知道你对此有何看法？因为我确实在金融市场中听到了越来越多关于这方面的讨论。

I'm curious if you have a view on this, James, because I certainly am seeing that more chatter about this in in financial markets.

是的

Yeah.

我的意思是，艾丽丝，你说得完全正确。

I mean, I think you're dead you're dead right there, Alice.

我认为，中国正在利用伊朗的这场危机——显然，冲突现在已经蔓延到伊朗之外——来损害美国在全球舞台上的信誉，将美国描绘成全球的破坏者，正如你正确指出的，艾丽丝，同时获取商业利益。

I think, China is using this crisis in Iran, and, obviously, the conflict is spreading beyond Iran now, to damage US credibility on the global stage, to portray The US as a global wrecking ball, and as you rightly say, Alice, to make commercial capital.

他们试图获取商业利益的一个领域，虽然不是立竿见影，但从长远来看，是逐步以人民币取代美元的主导地位。

And one area that they're trying to make commercial capital, it's not immediate, but in the longer term is to slowly replace the dominance of the US dollar with the renminbi.

这些变化本质上是结构性的。

And, you know, these movements are kind of tectonic in nature.

它们发生得很缓慢，但一旦发生，整个全球经济和地缘政治体系就会随之改变。

They happen slowly, but once they do change, then the whole global economic and geopolitical system changes in their wake.

世界用什么来进行贸易和投资流动，这真的至关重要。

It really does matter a great deal, what the world uses to, you know, to transact its trade and investment flows.

目前仍是美元，但人民币正在相当强劲地崛起。

At the moment, it's the US dollar, but the renminbi is rising fairly, fairly strongly.

我认为我们可以预见一个未来，在这个未来中，人民币在全球贸易和投资结算中的份额将大大增加。

And I think we can now envisage a future in which the renminbi has a much greater, share of global settlement, both for trade and for investment.

所以，是的，我的意思是，这些已经被释放出来的力量非常巨大。

So, yeah, I mean, these are these are very big forces that have been unleashed.

中国并不可以说是享受美国的不幸，但它确实正在利用美国的不幸以及美国对其声誉造成的损害。

China is, I wouldn't say enjoying The US's misfortune, but it is certainly capitalizing on The US's misfortune misfortune and the damage that The US is doing to its reputation.

是的。

Yeah.

你知道，在石油和能源领域，美国也处于劣势。

You know, it goes without saying on the oil and energy front, it it is also at a disadvantage, is.

对吧？

Right?

在石油和能源领域，如果WTI价格继续上涨超过100美元，这将带来压力。

On the oil and energy front, you know, if if WTI goes north continues to go north of a 100, that is gonna cause pressure.

如果供应链和石油供应持续紧张，这将给北京带来压力。

If supply chains and oil continue to be constricted, that is gonna cause pressure for Beijing.

但你说得对。

But you're right.

从地缘政治和外交角度来看，如果纯粹从这个维度来看，我认为美国犯了一个明显的错误，这为中国创造了机会，不仅在中东，也在仍在进行的中美贸易谈判中获得了更多筹码。

Geopolitically and diplomatically, if we look at it from that vector purely, I think this has been a an unforced error by the Americans in which that has caused an opportunity for China to gain leverage, not only just in The Middle East, but also in potentially US China trade talks that are still ongoing.

因为，你知道，美国在中东越分心、越陷越深，就越不可能在贸易和技术出口管制方面对中国施压。

Because, you know, the more that The US is distracted and bogged down in The Middle East, the less likely they're gonna be firing shots at China, you know, in trade and technology export controls.

这让我想起一篇非常有趣的《环球时报》文章，我觉得是3月15日左右发表的。

It seems and this is I'm just citing a Global Times piece that was really interesting that came out, I think, about March 15.

《环球时报》的一篇社论说，美国自己放了火，现在却要求全世界帮忙灭火并分摊费用。

That one op ed in the Global Times says, The US has set the fire, now they're asking the world to help it put it out and split the bill.

我觉得这个比喻很有趣，它恰恰揭示了中国人如何看待这场危机——这是美国自己制造的乱局，而中国并不想参与任何协同应对的努力。

I thought that that was an interesting image, and it sort of goes to the heart of how the Chinese perceive this as a mess of the American making, and that the Chinese do not wanna get involved in any collaborative effort.

这让我想起1956年苏伊士运河危机的某些情形。

And it reminds me to some extent what happened in '56 of the Suez Crisis.

当时英国和法国试图控制苏伊士运河——另一个位于埃及的关键咽喉要道。

You know, you had Britain, France trying to, you know, take control of the Suez Canal, another major choke point in Egypt.

他们并没有获得当时美国总统艾森豪威尔的批准，艾森豪威尔决定不支持旧的帝国政权，而是支持埃及总统纳赛尔。

And they did not get the approval of then US president Eisenhower who decided to not back, you know, old imperial regimes, but back the Egyptian president Nasser.

我认为现在中国也做出了类似的决定，他们不会支持美国，也不会参与合作清除海峡水雷或疏通海峡并对伊朗施压。

I think a similar thing is happening now with the Chinese deciding that they're not gonna back the Americans and and collaborating to demine the strait or to unblock the strait and put pressure on the Iranians.

这很有趣。

So that's interesting.

到目前为止，我还没看到美国方面有真正的反应。

Thus far, I haven't seen the Americans really react.

我认为他们深陷于中东正在发生的事情中。

I think that they're very much bogged down in what is happening in The Middle East.

是的。

Yes.

我也这么认为。

I think so.

而且我认为，这给了中国一个机会，使其能够扮演政治家和和平调解者的角色。

And I think, this gives China an opportunity to, act as the statesman, the peacemaker.

根据中国外长王毅的说法，当前的当务之急首先是遏制冲突蔓延，防止其他国家卷入，比如沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋——这两个国家都是中国的朋友，且都曾遭到伊朗导弹的袭击。

According to Wang Yi, China's foreign minister, he said that the urgent priorities now are firstly to curb the spread of the conflict and prevent other countries from becoming involved, other countries like Saudi Arabia and The UAE, both of which are friendly nations, with China and both of which have been struck by, missiles from Iran.

中国还呼吁国际社会统一行动，立即实现停火，并进一步开展调解努力。

And China's also called for a unified international push for an immediate ceasefire and further mediation efforts.

这又回到了你之前说的，爱丽丝。

And this goes back to what you were saying earlier, Alice.

我认为中国会把自己塑造为结束这场冲突的调解者，或者在冲突结束后，作为地区国家之间的调解者介入。

I think that China will portray itself as the mediator to end this conflict or perhaps after the conflict has ended to step in as a mediator between the nations in the region.

从而，中国会进一步把自己塑造成和平使者，而美国，正如我之前所说，则会试图扮演破坏者的角色。

And thereby, it will portray itself even more as the peacemaker, whereas The US, as I said earlier, it will want to be, portraying as a kind of a wrecking ball.

所以我认为中国的战略非常明确。

So I think China's strategy is pretty clear.

特朗普当然呼吁中国协助保障霍尔木兹海峡的航运安全。

Trump, of course, called on China to help, assure the shipping through the Straits Of Hormuz.

我认为，中国会直接与美国合作，以推动美国在伊朗战争相关事务上的目标，这种想法完全是不切实际的空想。

And I think that I the idea that China would cooperate directly with The US to further The US objectives in anything to do with this war in Iran is completely pie in the sky.

中国不会愿意这样做，因为它希望把自己描绘成与美国发动的这场不义战争相对立的角色。

China will not want to do that because it wants to portray itself as separate and in opposition to what it calls an unjust war, which has been started by The US.

我认为，对中国来说，他们正在关注从美国在伊朗的战争中能获得的宣传利益。

I think, you know, for China, they are keeping their eye on the propaganda gains that they can make from The US war in Iran.

是的。

Yeah.

为了支持你关于中国是地区和平使者的观点，这背后是有历史渊源的。

And just to back up your point of China being a peace peacemaker in the region, there is a history of this.

对吧？

Right?

早在2023年，中国就促成了沙特与伊朗之间的和解，促成了外交缓和与关系改善。

China back in 2023 was responsible for the rapprochement between the Saudis and the Iranians that led to a diplomatic detente and a rapprochement.

所以他们是有先例的。

So they have a track record.

詹姆斯，我同意你的观点，鉴于中国在海湾地区和伊朗诸多关键角色中巨大的商业、经济和外交影响力，他们将在任何地区和平谈判中发挥重要作用。

I am on the side that you are on, James, is that they will play a part in in in any peace negotiation in the region given the outsized commercial economic and diplomatic influence they have with a lot of The Gulf and Iranian players.

你知道吗，如果我从现实主义的角度来看，比如阿亚图拉、约翰·米尔斯海默或格雷厄姆·艾利森的观点，我会担心你所使用的‘破坏球’比喻实际上增强了邪恶轴心的力量。

You know, if I'm looking at this from a realist perspective, you know, Allah, John Mirshaima, or Graham Allison, I am I am worried that the wrecking ball analogy that you used has actually empowered the axis of ill will.

如果你想想，这个术语最初所指的国家是俄罗斯、中国、伊朗和朝鲜。

If you think about the countries the original countries within that nomenclature were Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea.

你知道，考虑到未来可预见的油价上涨，这对俄罗斯有利。

You know, with oil prices going up for the conceivable future, that benefits Russia.

伊朗很难被彻底铲除。

Iran is hard to decapitate.

我们可能只是用一个更强硬的领导人取代了前任。

We've probably replaced one leader with a more hardline leader.

而中国，正如你之前提到的，詹姆斯，似乎在外交上受益了。

And China, to to your earlier point, James, looks to be benefiting diplomatically.

如果基辛格从坟墓里复活，看到华盛顿正在做的事，我会替他感到担忧。

I I'm I'd be worried if I were Kissinger come back from the grave and looking at what Washington's doing.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，我觉得现在下结论还为时过早，因为我们还不知道这场战争的结局会怎样。

I mean, you know, I I I think it's too early to say because we don't know what the end of this war will be.

有可能美国获胜，然后由美国来决定战后和平或后续局势的条款。

It could be that the US wins, and then the US gets to set the terms of whatever peace may follow that or whatever situation may follow that.

在这种情况下，美国或许会比现在看起来状态更好一些。

And under those circumstances, maybe The US emerges from this looking slightly better than it does at the moment.

如果美国能恢复霍尔木兹海峡的航运，油价下跌，特朗普在国际舞台上显得更像一位政治家，那么国际舆论对这一行动的看法可能会再次向美国倾斜。

If the US can restore shipping in the Strait Of Hormuz, the price of oil comes down, Trump gets to sound more like a statesman on the world stage, then maybe the pendulum swim swings back again in The US favor in terms of international opinion on this action.

但目前，毫无疑问，中国正在利用此事进行宣传。

But at the moment, I think there's no doubt that China is making propaganda capital from this.

说得好。

Great point.

而且正如你所说，未来一两周内很多事情都可能发生变化。

And and to your point, a lot can change in the next week or two.

所以我们得随时关注最新消息。

So we will stay braced for the news.

好的。

Okay.

我们来做最后一次短暂的休息。

Let's take one last quick break.

请继续关注我们。

Stay with us.

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多年来，共和党政治圈里基本上只有一人一直主张对伊朗进行政权更迭，并呼吁美国采取积极的军事行动来实现这一目标。

There's basically been one guy in Republican politics who's argued for a regime change in Iran for years and for America to take a proactive military role in making it happen.

前总统特朗普的国家安全事务助理约翰·博尔顿大使。

Ambassador John Bolton, president Trump's former national security adviser.

但如今，就连博尔顿也表示，唐纳德·特朗普把事情搞砸了。

But now, even Bolton says Donald Trump is messing it up.

据我们所知，他根本没有在伊朗境内为反对派做任何准备。

As far as we can tell, he did no preparation of the opposition actually inside Iran.

没有协调，没有努力去了解他们会做什么，也没有提供任何支持——无论是资源、资金、武器，还是电信支持，完全没有任何协调。

No coordination, no effort to, see what they would do, no no effort to support them to provide resources, money, arms if that's what they wanted, telecommunications, just just no coordination at all.