中国解读：伊朗战争升级，中国走钢丝

从一个人的口音中，你能看出很多关于他的信息。

You can tell a lot about a person by their accent.

我真的说我养了一只猫，还有一艘游艇。

I really do say I pog my cat and have a yacht.

这里每个人都说，比如咖啡和狗。

Everyone around here says, like, coffee and dog.

我们非常依恋自己的说话方式，因为它讲述了我们是谁的一部分故事。

We're so attached to the way that we sound because it tells a part of the story of who we are.

你的口音，解码。

Your accent, Decoded.

这就是本周的《给我解释一下》。

That's this week on Explain It To Me.

每周日，无论你在哪儿听播客，都能找到新一期。

Find new episodes, Sundays, wherever you get your podcasts.

这里是梅根·拉皮诺。

Megan Rapinoe here.

本周在《再多一点》节目中，我们邀请了两位内部人士帮助我们解读WNBA的新劳资协议，三届冠军、WNBA副主席艾莉西亚·克拉克，也就是AC，以及ESPN篮球分析师安德莉亚·卡特。

This week on a touch more, we've got two insiders to help us unpack the WNBA's new CBA, three time champion and WNB PA vice Alicia Clark, aka AC, and ESPN basketball analyst, Andrea Carter.

我们还将审视我们的NCAA预测表，看看三月疯狂接下来会如何发展。

We're also gonna take a look at our NCAA brackets and check out what's next in March Madness.

请在您收听播客的平台或YouTube上收听《再多一点》的最新一期节目。

Check out the latest episode of a touch more wherever you get your podcasts and on YouTube.

AI泡沫什么时候会破裂？

When is the AI bubble gonna burst?

你该如何让自己的工作不受AI影响？

How do you AI proof your job?

大学应该如何应对AI，并为学生应对变化的就业市场做好准备？

How should colleges handle AI and prepare students for a shifting job market?

我是亨利·布洛盖特，在我的节目《解决方案》中，我一直在与真正有答案的专家探讨这些问题以及其他相关议题。

I'm Henry Blodgett, and on my show Solutions, I've been exploring all of those questions and more with experts who have actual answers.

我们已经听够了关于问题的讨论。

We hear enough about our problems.

让我们来解决这些问题。

Let's solve them.

关注亨利·布洛盖特的《解决方案》节目。

Follow Solutions with Henry Blodgett.

事实是，中国仍然非常脆弱和易受冲击。

The fact of the matter is China is still very vulnerable and exposed.

如果这场战争比目前看起来持续得更久，那么随着时间推移，它更可能演变成一场长期冲突。

If this war becomes more prolonged than it seems as every day that passes, it's more likely that it is a more prolonged conflict.

对吧？

Right?

那么，你如何看待中国为何没有更积极或更强烈地提出批评？

So what is your assessment as to why China hasn't really been as aggressive or vociferous in its criticism?

它在关于德黑兰冲突的联合国决议中投了弃权票，而且据我所知，它并没有向伊朗提供直接的军事援助。

It's abstained from the UN resolution on the Tehran conflict, and it hasn't really, to my knowledge at least, given direct military aid to the Iranians.

嗯，艾丽斯，我的意思是，首先，这是一场正在席卷中东大部分地区的悲剧。

Well, Alice, I mean, you know, obviously, first of all, this is a tragedy that is enveloping much of The Middle East now.

但与此同时，正如你刚刚指出的，这为我们提供了一个宝贵的机会，让我们深入了解中国如何开展外交，以及作为全球第二大地缘政治力量，中国的首要优先事项究竟是如何体现的。

But at the same time, as you've just pointed out, it provides us with a very valuable chance to get an object lesson in how China conducts its diplomacy and how China's overriding priorities as the world's second most influential geopolitical actor actually play out.

简而言之，这就是中国的博弈策略。

I mean, to put it in short, this is China's game theory.

欢迎来到《中国解读》。

Welcome to China Decode.

我是韩Alice。

I'm Alice Han.

我是詹姆斯·金。

And I'm James Kynge.

在今天这一期《中国解读》中，我们将讨论北京如何在伊朗冲突加剧的情况下保持中立立场，中国车企比亚迪如何有望成为全球性力量，以及一项雄心勃勃且独特的基础设施项目即将在重庆开通。

In today's episode of China Decode, we're discussing how Beijing is maintaining a neutral position as the Iran conflict deepens, how Chinese automaker BYD is poised to become a global force, and an ambitious and unique infrastructure project is ready to open in Chongqing.

我们会探讨这些如何反映中国的价值观。

We'll talk about how it reflects China's values.

接下来就为大家一一呈现。

That's all coming up.

但首先，让我们快速了解一下中国市场的本周开局情况。

But first, let's do a quick check-in with how the Chinese markets are starting the week.

周一，上证A股指数上涨了0.2%。

On Monday, the Shanghai a share index gained 0.2%.

恒生H股指数下跌了0.8%，目前较一月高点下跌了12%。

The Hang Seng h share index fell 0.8%, now down 12% from its January high.

由于伊朗袭击中东地区铝厂的消息，中国铝业和中国宏桥集团的股价分别上涨了74%。

On news of Iran striking aluminum plants in The Middle East, aluminum producers, Aluminum Corporation of China and China Hongqing Group closed up 74% respectively.

电动汽车制造商比亚迪股价下跌了近5%，但关于这一点我们稍后再谈。

And EV maker BYD fell nearly 5%, but more on that later.

在进入本期节目之前，先做一个简短公告。

Before we get to the episode, a quick announcement.

《中国解读》现在推出了每周简报。

China Decode now has a weekly newsletter.

我们会超越播客中讨论的主题，为您提供更多关于本周中国最重要新闻的数据与分析。

We go beyond the topics we cover here on the podcast and give you even more data and analysis on the most important stories coming out of China this week.

请在 chinadecode.professorgmedia.com 订阅。

Subscribe at chinadecode.professorgmedia.com.

目前是免费的，所以一定要尽快订阅。

It's free for now, so be sure you get subscribed soon.

网址是 chinadecode.profgmedia.com。

That's chinadecode.profgmedia.com.

好的。

Alright.

我们开始吧。

Let's get into it.

自以色列和美国对伊朗发动军事行动以来，已经过去了三十多天，这使全球陷入深深的不确定性。

It has been just more than thirty days since Israel and The US launched their military operations in Iran, thrusting much of the world into deep uncertainty.

中国约一半的石油通过霍尔木兹海峡运输，但中国既未公开支持德黑兰，也未提供安全保证或军事支持，部分原因是当前中国与美国的贸易关系处于脆弱时刻，北京因此极为谨慎。

China gets about half of its oil through the Strait Of Hormuz, but it has not offered public support for Tehran nor offered security guarantees or military backing, In part because of the current tenuous moment in China's trade relationship with The US, Beijing is being highly cautious.

称之为虚假中立也好，称之为长远布局也罢，中国显然正试图向全球观众展现一种平静的经济稳定形象，以供他们评判中国的下一步行动。

Call it a fraud neutrality or call it playing the long game, China is clearly trying to project an image of calm economic stability to a global audience looking on to judge its next moves.

詹姆斯，我认为中国在对这场冲突的批评上，相对委内瑞拉而言要低调得多。

James, China, I think, has been quite withdrawn from the criticism of the conflict relative to, say, Venezuela.

我们之前已经讨论过这一点。

We've discussed that previously.

但事实是，中国仍然非常脆弱且处于暴露状态。

But the fact of the matter is China is still very vulnerable and exposed.

如果这场战争变得更加持久，而每一天过去，都似乎让这场冲突更可能长期化。

If this war becomes more prolonged and it seems as every day that passes, it's more likely that it is a more prolonged conflict.

对吧？

Right?

那么，你如何评估中国为何没有在批评上表现得更积极或更激烈？

So what is your assessment as to why China hasn't really been as aggressive or vesophorous in its criticism?

中国在联合国关于德黑兰冲突的决议中投了弃权票，而且据我所知，它并未向伊朗提供直接的军事援助。

It's abstained from the UN, resolution on the Tehran Conflict, and it hasn't really, to my knowledge at least, given direct military aid to the Iranians.

艾丽斯，我的意思是，首先，这场悲剧正在席卷整个中东地区。

Well, Alice, I mean, you know, obviously, first of all, this is a tragedy that is enveloping much of the Middle East now.

但与此同时，正如你刚刚指出的，这为我们提供了一个绝佳的机会，让我们直观地了解中国如何开展外交，以及作为全球第二大地缘政治力量，中国的首要优先事项究竟是如何体现的。

But at the same time, as you've just pointed out, it provides us with a very valuable chance to get an object lesson in how China conducts its diplomacy and how China's overriding priorities as the world's second most influential geopolitical actor actually play out.

简而言之，这就是中国的博弈论。

I mean, to to to put it in short, this is China's game theory.

我们现在所看到的，正是中国如何运用博弈论来获取优势的实时案例。

What we're watching now is a real time example of how China uses game theory to leverage advantage.

我大致将其归纳为三个主要方面。

I I've sort of boiled it down to what I consider to be three main areas.

第一个方面，我有点富有想象力地称之为‘老虎前爪原则’，因为老虎将前爪作为主要武器，因为它力量强大。

And the first one, I'm rather fancifully calling, you know, the principle of the tiger's front paw because a tiger uses its front paw as its prime weapon because it's so powerful.

而在中国的情况下，它并非依靠军事或外交实力作为主要武器，而是依靠经济力量。

And in China's case, it uses not military or diplomatic muscle as its prime weapon, but economic power.

因此，这场中东危机中，中国必须在军事和外交行动上退后一步，集中精力发挥其经济优势。

And so this crisis, in The Middle East, is one in which China has to back off in terms of military and diplomatic initiatives and concentrate on its economic power.

在这方面，你已经提到，中国的首要任务是确保石油通过霍尔木兹海峡持续流动，以便维持国内城市和工厂的正常运转。

And so in this regard, you've already mentioned, China's main priority is to keep the oil flowing through the Strait Of Hormuz, and so that it can keep its cities and factories running back home.

同时，它需要避免过度激怒美国，以免招致华盛顿的经济报复，比如关税或其他形式的经济制裁。

And it needs to avoid antagonizing The US, you know, too much in order to avoid economic reprisals from Washington, such as tariffs or other forms of of economic sanction.

第二，我认为中国总是尽量保留实力。

Second, I think China always tries to keep its powder dry.

在这方面，我指的是中国严格优先关注其核心利益区域。

And in this regard, I'm talking about it strictly prioritizes its crucial theater of focus, crucial theater of interest.

伊朗和霍尔木兹海峡当然对中国的很重要，但中国的重点在于其周边地区，包括台湾、南海，以及日本和韩国。

Iran and the Strait Of Hormuz are, of course, important to China, but China's crucial focus is on the areas around its borders, Taiwan, the South China Sea, and, of course, Japan and Korea.

因此，中国不想把自己摊得太薄。

So China doesn't wanna spread itself too thin.

它不可能同时关注所有地方。

It can't focus on everywhere all the time.

官方对此的表述是‘周边外交’。

The official word for this is periphery diplomacy.

它专注于中国周边的国家和地区，这种情况实际上已经持续了数千年。

It's focused on the countries and the regions around China, and this has been the case for actually thousands of years.

所以我认为，这是中国外交所遵循的第二个关键指导理念。

So I think that's the second crucial, kind of guiding philosophy that China's diplomacy has.

最后，也是最重要的，是中国仍是一个高度务实的强国。

The last and probably the most important is that China is still a highly transactional power.

它除了一个国家外，没有其他盟友，那就是朝鲜。

It doesn't have allies with the exception of one, and that is North Korea.

它与朝鲜在1961年签署了一项正式条约。

It has a formal treaty with North Korea signed in 1961.

但除此之外，中国没有任何条约义务，去在其他国家遭受攻击时介入保护或防卫。

But aside from that, China has no treaty obligation to go in and protect and defend any other country were that country to be attacked.

它与世界各地的许多国家建立了所谓的战略伙伴关系，事实上，它曾与伊朗保持这种关系，但现在依然存在；但这些关系在真正关键时刻几乎毫无意义。

It has many so called strategic partnerships with countries around the world, and in fact, it had one or it has one still with Iran, but these mean really next to nothing when push comes to shove.

许多这样的战略伙伴关系，实际上只是为了讨好中国希望从其那里获取利益的国家。

A lot of these strategic partnerships are really just to flatter countries that China wants something from.

就伊朗而言，中国想要的是廉价石油，而它确实得到了。

And in the case of Iran, China wanted cheap oil, and it got it.

而且它可能也想利用伊朗在国际舞台上削弱美国，尤其是在过去。

And it also probably wanted to use Iran somewhat to undermine The US on the world stage, certainly in the past.

我不太确定现在是否还是这样。

I'm not so sure about the present.

因此，这些考量，或者说如果我们更愿意称之为中国的博弈策略，意味着我认为中国在这场战争中的反应是以下几种因素的混合，其中一些你已经提到过。

So these considerations or if we prefer China's game theory means that I think China's response in this war has been a mix of the following things, some of which you've already mentioned.

它缓和了对美国的批评。

It's moderated its criticism of The US.

它使用了克制且相对低调的语言来批评美国。

It's been using measured relatively low key language to criticize The US.

它表示美国的袭击是不可接受的。

It said that The US attack was unacceptable.

它称华盛顿正在采取丛林法则。

It said that the Washington is adopting a lure of the jungle.

它正在制造一个恶性循环。

It's creating a vicious cycle.

但这些在外交术语中其实算是相当温和的批评。

But these are fairly mild criticisms really, in diplomatic terms.

而且，至关重要的是，中国从未以任何形式——无论是资金、技术还是军事支援——向伊朗提供过军事支持。

And, crucially, at no point has China ever offered military support to Iran either in terms of money or technology or combat reinforcement.

因此，中国在这一关键方面始终保持超然态度。

So China's remained aloof in in that really important sense.

最后，中国仍在推进与特朗普总统的延期峰会。

And lastly, China's going ahead with the delayed summit with president Trump.

该峰会现已重新安排在五月举行，这显然不是一个对美国深感不满、企图打击美国或严厉批评美国的国家会采取的行动。

That is now on again for May, and that's hardly the action of a country that would be really annoyed with The US or wanting to score points against The US or harshly criticize The US.

因此，我认为通过所有这些举动，我们可以看到中国专注于自身利益，主要是经济利益，专注于保持对周边国家的专注与纪律，因为中国的命运正是在这里决定的，同时以务实的态度看待其与世界其他地区的外交关系。

So I think what we can see through all of these is China focusing on its own interests, mainly economic interests, focusing on keeping its focus and discipline on the countries that surround it where China's destiny really can be made or lost, and lastly, maintaining a transactional view of its relationship with the rest of the world.

换句话说，就是获取所需，不做出过多承诺，也不被任何地方的军事冒险所拖累。

In other words, getting what it needs and not pledging too much and not getting bogged down in any kind of military adventures anywhere in the world.

艾丽丝，你同意这个观点吗？还是你有不同看法？

Would you agree with that, Alice, or or do you have a different take on this?

我喜欢你这样用博弈论来框架这个问题，詹姆斯，借用博弈论的术语来说。

Well, I like the way that you framed this, James, as game theory, you know, to to borrow the vernacular of game theory.

我认为中国的主导策略——也许你和我在这个问题上意见一致——是让霍尔木兹海峡保持开放，但要按照中国的条件，最好通过外交手段实现。

I think China's dominant strategy, and maybe you and I agree in this respect, is to have the Strait Of Hormuz open, but on its own terms, and ideally through diplomatic means.

对吧？

Right?

我认为，华盛顿和德黑兰之间通过巴基斯坦建立的幕后渠道，是一个关键迹象，表明中国很可能深度参与其中。

I think the fact that you have a back channel between Washington and Tehran via Pakistan is a key indication that China is is probably strongly involved.

对吧？

Right?

别忘了，巴基斯坦本质上是中国的附庸国，受到北京的大量资金支持和军事援助。

Remember, because Pakistan is effectively a client state of China, heavily funded and and military aided by Beijing.

因此，如果出现某种和平协议，我认为中国可能会发挥重要作用。

So I could see China playing a big role in if there is some kind of a a peace agreement.

现在伊朗拒绝了特朗普的15点计划，未来几天可能会升级，特朗普计划在卡格岛部署军队，以美国的方式打通海峡。

Now Iran is rejecting Trump's 15 plan, and there may be escalation in the coming days where Trump is gonna put troops on the ground starting in Karg Island to open the strait on American terms.

但我觉得，正如你所指出的，詹姆斯，中国的策略是将中美贸易谈判和关系与伊朗问题脱钩，从而让海湾国家乃至七国集团都视中国为一个关键且诚信的调解者。

But I think China's strategy to your point, James, is to disassociate The US China trade talks and relationship from the Iran issue, and then be seen by both the Gulf states, but even the g seven countries as being a key diplomatic honest broker.

因为请记住，这不仅仅是与德黑兰的关系在起作用。

Because remember, it's not just the relationship with Tehran that's at play.

这还涉及与海湾国家的关系，这些国家一直是向中国供应石油和天然气的关键来源，而中国希望与沙特阿拉伯等国家保持良好关系。

It's also the relationship with the Gulf States that have been key suppliers of oil and natural gas to China, and China wants to be on good terms with the Saudi Arabias of the world.

所以我认为，未来我们得看看北京在谈判中会有多深入的参与。

So I think that that, you know, moving forward, we'll have to see how involved Beijing is in the talks.

我理解你的观点，詹姆斯，伊朗不是俄罗斯，我想反问你的是：为什么中国在俄中关系上投入了如此多的资源？

I take your point, James, that, you know, Iran is not Russia, and I would note the question back to you is is why is it that China has invested so much in the Russia relationship?

她个人在与普京的关系上投入了大量精力。

She personally has invested a lot in the relationship with Putin.

我不认为这种情感同样存在于中国与伊朗之间，例如。

I don't think that same sentiment is shared, with the Iranians, for instance.

但我同意你的看法，詹姆斯，伊朗被视为中国在该地区的一个关键战略伙伴和立足点。

But I agree with you, James, that Iran is seen as a key strategic partner and foothold for China within the region.

伊朗还为美国和中东地区制造了更多的冲突和困难。

Iran also creates more, conflict and difficulties for America and The Middle East.

因此，从这个角度看，它某种程度上像是中国的附庸国。

So in this respect, it is somewhat like a client state for China.

但展望未来，我们得看看新最高领袖上台后，德黑兰和北京之间会建立怎样的关系。

But moving forward, we'll have to see, you know, what happens with the new Ayatollah, what kind of a relationship we're gonna have between Tehran and Beijing.

到目前为止，我们尚未看到中国直接或间接向伊朗政权提供财政或军事援助。

To date, we haven't seen any Chinese direct or indirect financial or military aid to the Iranian regime.

我认为，在冲突爆发前，我们观察到伊朗使用的导航系统发生了变化。

I think before the conflict started, we had a change we saw a change in the navigation systems used by the Iranians.

他们现在使用的是中国的北斗卫星导航系统。

They now use the Chinese Beidou satellite navigation system.

有消息称，美国在发动打击前，曾试图摧毁该系统并进行渗透，以掌握该地区各类资产的具体位置。

There was word on the street that the Americans, you know, before they started striking, were trying to take down some of the system and infiltrate it in order to pick up on where different assets were in the region.

在此之前，还有传言称中国向伊朗出售了精确制导导弹技术。

And then before that, there was talk about China selling precision missile technology to the Iranians.

我们得看看中国未来是否愿意这样做，但到目前为止，我认为他们一直不太情愿。

We'll have to see moving forward if China is willing to do that, but thus far, I think they've been reluctant to.

最后我想指出的是，尽管我认为中国从这种地缘政治博弈中获益，但我们仍不应低估这对中国的能源和化肥方面带来的困难。

And then one last point that I will make is that even although I think China benefits from this geopolitical game theory, multiplayer game theory, I think we still shouldn't understate the difficulties this puts China in in terms of the energy fertilizers sides of things.

对吧？

Right?

因为，你知道，你实际上只有大约一百天的战略储备。

Because, you know, you effectively have about a hundred days of strategic reserves.

中国现在几乎已经停止了所有石油和化肥的出口，我认为甚至可能包括石化产品。

China is now cutting down pretty much on all exports of oil and fertilizers, and I think potentially even petrochemicals.

目前，他们正在实施油价上限，以保护普通消费者和企业。

And right now, they're putting in oil caps to protect everyday consumers and corporates.

如果这场冲突持续更久，特别是如果海峡在未来两个月以上无法得到保障，我认为这将使中国陷入困境。

I you know, if this conflict drags on for longer and the straight in particular is not securitized for, you know, more than two months moving forward, I think that that puts China in a difficult position.

这对经济会产生影响，因为经济增长本身已经相当脆弱。

It has ramifications for the economy where, again, growth is quite fragile.

但我想最后问你一个问题，詹姆斯。

But I wanna end on one last question for you, James.

我觉得这概括了我的想法。

I think this sort of sums up my thinking.

为什么中国与伊朗的关系和与俄罗斯的关系如此不同？

Why is it that this relationship with Iran is so different from the relationship with Russia?

表面上看，这两个国家都是大型石油生产国。

On the surface, these are both huge oil producing countries.

它们都属于所谓的敌对轴心。

They're all part of the axis of ill will.

它们都给西方制造麻烦。

They all cause troubles for the West.

为什么我认为中国更紧密地与俄罗斯站在一起，并在冲突中比支持伊朗更坚定地支持俄罗斯？

Why is it that I think China's more hitched to Russia and has supported Russia throughout the conflict much more than Iran?

完全正确，亚历克斯。

Absolutely, Alex.

在回答这个问题之前，我想说，你指出可能存在我们不了解的幕后情况，这一点非常正确。

And before I answer that, let me just say that I think you're dead right to point out that there could be things happening behind the scenes that we don't know about.

你提到了导弹技术。

You mentioned missile technology.

目前我们没有任何证据表明中国在任何方面向伊朗提供帮助。

We don't have any evidence that China is helping Iran in any regard like that at the moment.

但如果这种情况真的发生，那我们就进入了一个不同的领域。

But if that was to happen, then I think we would be in different territory here.

目前，我们假设这种情况并未发生。

For the moment, we assume it's not happening.

不过，无论如何，俄罗斯与伊朗相比，我认为这完全属于我之前提到的边缘外交范畴，而这显然是中国的核心考量。

But, anyway, Russia versus Iran, I think this, very much falls into the kind of category that I mentioned in terms of periphery diplomacy, which is obviously China's, core criteria.

俄罗斯和中国有数千英里的边界，因此俄罗斯对中国来说比伊朗重要得多。

Russia and China have a border of several thousand miles, so that makes Russia much more important to China than Iran.

中国还通过管道从俄罗斯获得大量液化天然气，这些是实际存在的固定基础设施。

China also gets a huge amount of, liquefied natural gas from Russia through pipelines, which are actual fixed infrastructure.

所以这是俄罗斯如此重要的另一个原因。

So that's another reason why, Russia's so important.

但同时，俄罗斯还为中国提供了通往北极等关键供应链的通道。

But, also, Russia, provides China's access to crucial other supply lines such as the Arctic.

你知道，北极航线在夏季可以通航，如果全球变暖持续下去，未来在部分冬季也可能通航。

You know, shipping through the Arctic goes, goes ahead in the summer months, and it's possible that in the future, it could also do so in some of the winter months if global warming continues.

我也认为，这稍微违背了我之前试图阐述的观点，即习近平和普京总统之间有一些个人关系。

I do also think, and this slightly goes against the argument that I was trying to make, that Xi Jinping and president Putin have a bit of a personal relationship.

我说过，我认为中国的外交主要是交易性的，聚焦于周边外交，而俄罗斯正属于这一类别。

I said that I thought China was mainly transactional, and it was and it focuses on its periphery diplomacy, and and you can see that Russia falls into those categories.

俄罗斯对中国供应链至关重要，对中国液化天然气供应也至关重要，但我认为普京和习近平之间确实存在一点情感因素。

Russia's vital for China's supply lines, vital for China's LNG supplies, but there is a little bit of an emotional content, I think, between Putin and Xi.

所以，这或许与我关于中国外交动因的总体观点相矛盾。

So, you know, perhaps that goes against my sort of framing argument of what I think motivates, Chinese diplomacy.

在这方面，中国的博弈论实际上与中国古代历史中的某种理念非常相似。

Chinese game theory in this regard actually is rather similar to something that goes right back into China's ancient history.

中国大约2500年前的典籍中就确立了外交原则。

There are principles of diplomacy set out in Chinese canons from about 2,500 ago.

这些原则被称为三十六计，全部讲述了一个国家如何运用心理战、诡计和欺骗来获得对对手的优势。

They're called the 36 stratagems, and they're all about how one state can use psychological warfare, ruses, deception to gain the advantage over your rivals.

我仔细查阅了这三十六计的列表。

And I was looking through, this list of these 36 stratagems.

我强烈推荐给还不了解这些内容的听众。

I would definitely recommend this to any listeners that don't know about these.

你可以在互联网上任何地方找到它们，它们非常生动且引人入胜。

You can find them anywhere on the Internet, and they are really, colorful and really interesting.

这些计谋的一个关键特点是，战斗始终被视为最后的手段。

And one of the key aspects of this of these stratagems is that fighting is always considered a last resort.

我认为这突显了我之前所说的，经济发展对中国外交策略至关重要。

And I think that underlines what I was saying about economic development being so crucial to China's sense of statecraft.

如果我们把一些计谋应用到当前中国、伊朗与美国之间的局势中，我认为有几条计谋确实有助于我们理解正在发生的事情。

And, if we apply some of the stratagems to what's happening now between China, Iran, and The US, I think there's a couple of stratagems that actually could do some work to help us understand what's happening.

其中一个叫做借刀杀人。

One of them is called kill with a borrowed knife.

用中文说。

In Chinese.

我不是说中国在利用伊朗去打击美国，但我确实认为，中国与伊朗的紧密关系正在削弱美国的地位。

I'm not saying that China's using Iran to kill The US, but I certainly think that it is disadvantaging The US by its tight relationship with Iran.

另一个引起我注意的计策是‘舍卒保车’。

And the other stratagem that jumped out at me was, which means sacrifice the plum tree to preserve the peach tree.

这基本上意味着为了实现长远目标而牺牲短期利益。

And this is basically a sense of sacrificing short term objectives in order to gain the long term goal.

换句话说，要盯住最终目标。

In other words, keep your eye on the on the prize.

在这方面，我认为中国正在牺牲短期内对美国的严厉批评——尽管这正是中国内心真正相信的立场——以换取更长远的目标：促使特朗普前往北京，从而在中国看来，争取到一些让步，或许能缓解中美之间的贸易争端。

And in this regard, I would I would say that China is sacrificing the short term objective of being highly critical of The US, which is what China really believes in its heart, in order to gain the longer term objective of getting Trump to come to Beijing and hopefully, in China's eyes, to win some concessions from Trump, maybe some deescalation in the trade war between China and The US.

是的。

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

我觉得我同意这一点。

I think I agree with that.

你引用中国历史，这挺有趣的。

It's funny that you quote Chinese history.

我会说，我们正在研究的一个类比是1956年的苏伊士运河危机，当时英国和法国试图阻止埃及国有化运河并控制它。

I would have said that one of the analogies that we're looking into is the Suez Crisis in '57 in which the Brits and the French were involved in trying to stop NASA from nationalizing the canal and controlling it.

在艾森豪威尔总统领导下，当外交手段失败后，美国通过经济施压迫使英国和法国退让，从而为美国取代大英帝国铺平了道路。

And The US under Eisenhower came in after diplomacy failed and basically economically coerced the Brits and the French to back down, thus paving the way for America overtaking the British Empire.

因此，展望未来，一个重大问题是：伊朗是否是今天的苏伊士危机？这是否意味着中国正在崛起，而美国正在衰落？

And so the big question as we look forward is is is Iran the Suez crisis of today, and does that mean that China is ascended and The US is in decline?

所以，我就留下这个宏大的思考吧。

So I'll I'll leave that big epic thought

给嗯。

for Mhmm.

留到未来的一期节目吧，但我认为这一点值得牢记。

For a future episode, but I I think that's something worth bearing in mind.

好的。

Okay.

短暂休息后，我们马上回来继续。

We'll be back with more after a quick break.

请继续关注。

Stay with us.

本节目由HIMSS赞助。

Support for the show comes from HIMSS.

你还有许多地方要去。

You've got places to be.

坐在等待脱发治疗的候诊室里，可不是你的选择。

Sitting in a waiting room for hair loss treatment isn't one of them.

HIMSS让你能按自己的时间安排获得专家护理，无需排队，专注于重拾自我。

HIMSS makes expert care accessible on your schedule so you can skip the line and focus on feeling like yourself again.

HIMSS 提供便捷的处方生发治疗方案，包含多种有效成分，如咀嚼片、口服药物、精华液和喷雾。

HIMSS offers convenient access to a range of prescription hair loss treatments with ingredients that work, including chews, oral medication serums, and sprays.

这些产品采用医生信赖的成分，如非那雄胺和米诺地尔，可能在短短三到六个月时间内阻止进一步脱发并促进头发再生。

These are products that use doctor trusted ingredients like Finasteride and Minoxidil, which may be able to stop further hair loss and regrow hair in as little as three to six months.

把 HIMSS 想象成通往更好头发健康的数字入口。

Think of HIMSS as your digital front door that leads to better hair health.

他们通过完全在线的方式，为您提供个性化的治疗方案，将您的目标放在首位。

They bring expert care straight to you with a 100% online access to personalized treatment plans that put your goals first.

如需便捷在线获取针对脱发、勃起功能障碍、减重等的个性化且可负担的护理，请访问 himss.com/provg。

For simple online access to personalized and affordable care for hair loss, ED, weight loss, and more, visit himss.com/provg.

访问 himss.com/provg，即可免费在线问诊。

That's himss.com/provg for your free online visit.

himss.com/provg。

Himss.com/provg.

推荐产品包括复合药物，这些产品未经美国食品药品监督管理局（FDA）批准或验证其安全性、有效性或质量。

Featured products include compounded drug products, which the FDA does not approve or verify for safety, effectiveness, or quality.

需处方：请访问网站查看完整详情、限制和重要安全信息。

Prescription required: see website for full details, restrictions, and important safety information.

个人效果可能因外用和口服米诺地尔及非那雄胺的研究而异。

Individual results may vary based on studies of topical and oral minoxidil and Finasteride.

本节目由Jule赞助。

Support for the show comes from Jule.

说实话。

Be honest.

今天早上你吃了什么早餐？

What did you have for breakfast this morning?

一个快餐鸡蛋三明治，一些变软的剩菜，或者根本没吃？

A fast food egg sandwich, some soggy leftovers, maybe nothing at all?

那可是我最爱的早餐。

That's my favorite breakfast.

你可以吃得更好一点。

You can do better than that.

即使你时间紧张，尤其是当你选择Huel时。

And even if you're strapped for time, especially if you reach for Huel.

Huel是高蛋白饮食支持和忙碌日子的完美解决方案。

Huel is the perfect solution for high protein routine support and busy days.

我们的制作人克莱尔·米勒已经试过Huel。

Our own producer, Claire Miller, has tried Huel.

克莱尔，你来介绍一下。

Claire, take it away.

Huel寄给了我66磅的蛋白产品。

Huel sent me 66 pounds of protein product.

我想我这一辈子都够用了。

I'm set for a good decade, I think.

我和你一样，斯科特。

I'm like you, Scott.

我整天都会忘记吃饭，所以他们给我寄了这些饮料，味道真的不错，能让我保持饱腹感，一整天都精力充沛。

I forget to eat throughout the day, so they send me these shakes that are honestly tasty and they keep me full and, fueled up for the day.

所以我真的很喜欢这种能量补给，我会在很长很长的时间里继续使用它，毕竟我有66磅呢。

So I really love fuel and I will certainly be having it for a long, long time with 66 pounds of it.

我其实真的很想试试。

I'm actually I actually would like to try it.

我正在努力不这么做。

I'm trying to no.

我替自己感到难过。

I feel sorry for me.

我正在努力——但我很难保持体重。

I'm trying to I'm having trouble keeping it on weight.

我有多余的，所以我会寄一些到你公寓。

I have more than enough, so I'll send it over to your apartment.

好消息来了。

Well, here's the good news.

限时优惠：今天在 huel.com/provg 使用代码 provg，即可享受在线购买Huel的15%折扣。

For a limited time, you get Huel today with our exclusive offer of 15% off online with the code, prov g, at huel.com/provg.

仅限新客户。

New customers only.

感谢Huel与我们合作并支持我们的节目。

Thank you to Huel for partnering and supporting our show.

本节目的赞助来自LinkedIn广告。

Support for the show comes from LinkedIn ads.

没有什么比对某样东西进行重大投资后，却发现它并未达到宣传中的效果更糟糕的感觉了，比如买了一件高档科技产品，结果却束之高阁、积满灰尘，或者参加了一个商业研讨会，最后收获的不过是几句激励人心的话。

There's no worse feeling than making a major investment in something only to realize it didn't exactly live up to the hype, such as buying a nice piece of tech that ends up in storage collecting dust or taking a business workshop where your main takeaway was little more than a few motivational words.

如果你从事营销工作，广告也可能出现这种情况。

If you work in marketing, this can happen with ads.

你专注于那些看起来很漂亮的数字：曝光量、覆盖范围和互动反应。

You optimize for the numbers that look great, impressions, reach, and reactions.

但当这些数据没有带来收入时，那就可能变成和CFO的一场不愉快的对话。

But when they don't show revenue, well, that can turn into an unfun conversation with the CFO.

LinkedIn管这叫‘无效支出’。

LinkedIn has a word for that, bull spend.

通过LinkedIn广告触达正确的买家，投资于让CFO满意的广告效果。

Reach the right buyers from LinkedIn ads and invest in what looks good to your CFO.

根据2026年梦想数据基准报告，LinkedIn广告在所有主要广告网络中实现了最高的投资回报率。

According to the 2026 Dream Data Benchmark Report, LinkedIn ads generated the highest ROAS of all major ad networks.

网络。

Networks.

达到了121%。

It's a 121%.

你可以按公司、行业、职位头衔等进行精准定位。

You can target by company, industry, job title, and more.

是时候停止无效支出了。

It's time to cut the bull spend.

在LinkedIn上投放广告，选择真正为你服务的平台。

Advertise on LinkedIn, the network that works for you.

在LinkedIn广告的首个活动中投入250美元，即可获得下一次广告250美元的抵扣额度。

Spend $250 in your first campaign on LinkedIn ads and get a 250 credit for the next one.

直接访问 LinkedIn：linkedin.com/scott。

Just go to LinkedIn linkedin.com/scott.

就是 linkedin.com/scott。

That's linkedin.com/scott.

条款和条件适用。

Terms and conditions apply.

欢迎回来。

Welcome back.

比亚迪，北京最大的汽车巨头之一，正在采取重大举措。

BYD, the largest of Beijing's auto giants, is making serious moves.

它最近向分析师表示，有望超出其2026年出口目标的15%。

It recently signaled to analysts that it is on pace to beat its 2026 exports target by 15%.

今年早些时候，该公司报告全球销量增长了7.7%，尽管2025年国内销量下降了近8%。

Earlier this year, the company reported a 7.7% increase in global sales, even as domestic sales declined by almost 8% in 2025.

但来自其他中国制造商的竞争以及国内需求疲软，使其在国内市场的巨头地位有所削弱。

But competition from other Chinese manufacturers along with weakened demand at home has made them less of a behemoth domestically.

比亚迪去年净利润下降了19%，至47亿美元，这是自2021年以来的首次利润下滑。

BYD's net earnings declined by 19% to 4,700,000,000.0 US dollars last year, the first profit decline since 2021.

但在海外，比亚迪正在崛起，而此时特斯拉在美国的市场主导地位仍在持续下滑。

But abroad, BYD is ascendant, and this comes at a time when Tesla's market dominance continues to decline in The US.

特斯拉正在大力投资人工智能和机器人出租车，而比亚迪则在推动电池超快充电技术及海外扩张。

Tesla is investing heavily in artificial intelligence and robotaxis, while BYD is pushing ultra fast charging technology in batteries and overseas expansion.

詹姆斯，我觉得这个故事很有时效性，而且在某种程度上与伊朗危机问题有关。

James, I think this story is timely, and it somewhat links to the Iran crisis issue.

对吧？

Right?

因为如果美国的油价继续上涨，比如我听说加油站的油价每加仑上涨了一美元，

Because if we see oil prices continue to rise in The US, for instance, I'm hearing they're up a dollar a gallon, at the pump for consumers.

这可能会激励全球许多消费者考虑：也许我该买一辆电动车了。

This may incentivize a lot of consumers across the world to go, maybe I'll buy an EV instead.

而且，事实上，这些中国电动车非常非常有竞争力，而且能效很高。

And, actually, these Chinese EVs are very, very competitive, and energy efficient.

对吧？

Right?

所以我认为，除了地缘政治上的中国，中国电动汽车也是赢家之一。

So I think maybe one of the winners, beyond China geopolitically is is Chinese EVs.

你对此怎么看？

What's your take on that?

完全同意，爱丽丝。

100% agree, Alice.

我认为，比亚迪的现象确实是一个真正的现象。

I think that, you know, the BYD phenomenon is a true phenomenon.

我的意思是，比亚迪在中国以外的销量增长如此迅速，但我真的认为它的影响只会越来越大，并且正借助你所描述的伊朗危机以及全球汽油价格上涨的顺风而加速发展。

I mean, the growth of BYD sales outside China has just been so rapid, but I really do think that its impact is only going to grow, and it's gathering a following wind by you know, from the crisis as you described in Iran and obviously the rising cost of, petrol, gasoline around the world.

但我认为这里更重要的观点是，比亚迪只是众多企业中的第一个，或者至少是最早的一批之一。

But I think the bigger point here is that BYD is just the first of many or or or one of the first of many.

一波中国公司正发现，在海外赚钱比在竞争激烈的中国国内市场更容易。

A wave of Chinese companies are finding it easier to make money abroad than back in the hypercompetitive Chinese domestic market.

因此，在我看来，今年中国的出口额很可能超过4万亿美元。

And this is why Chinese exports this year are likely to rise, in my view, above 4,000,000,000,000 US dollars.

这比去年的约3.8万亿美元有所增长，根据我的研究，这将是历史上全球出口总额中占比最高的纪录。

That's up from about 3,800,000,000,000.0 last year, and that will be the biggest proportion of total world exports ever in history according to my research.

所以我认为，BYD这一现象与一个更宏大的、真正具有划时代意义的全球性现象紧密相连。

So I think, you know, this BYD phenomenon is connected to a much bigger phenomenon, which is truly epoch making in terms of global history.

关于BYD本身，我认为你所描述的那些特点才是关键。

When it comes to BYD itself, I think the salient characteristics are the ones that you've described.

它的技术世界一流，但定价却低到让西方汽车公司完全无法匹敌。

Its technology is world class, but it comes in at a price point that really blows Western car companies out of the water.

几年前，我在德国开过一辆BYD电动车。

I drove a BYD EV in Germany a couple of years ago.

在我看来，这是一辆非常出色的车。

It seemed to me like an excellent car.

我遇到的最大问题是看不懂说明书，因为车会语音提示，但我完全不会德语，而所有提示都是德语的。

The biggest problem I had was understanding the instructions because of course the car speaks to you, but I don't speak in in any German, and this was all in in German.

所以这有点麻烦。

So that was a bit of an issue.

但我骑的是比亚迪ATTO二。

But the one I rode was the BYD ATTO two.

它的售价大约是22,000欧元，比欧洲市场上销售的特斯拉和其他一些电动车便宜得多。

That costs about 22,000, €990, which is a lot less than, you know, the Teslas and some of the other, EVs on sale in Europe.

正如你已经提到的，爱丽丝，现在关键的方面和新的进展是充电技术，因为比亚迪本月刚刚推出了一种名为刀片电池2.0的技术。

And as you've already mentioned, Alice, the key aspect now and the new news here is the charging technology because BYD this month has just unveiled something called the Blade Battery two point zero.

这是一场革命，彻底的革命。

This is a game changer, complete game changer.

这意味着你可以在短短五分钟内将电量从10%充至70%。

This means that you can charge from 10% of the charge to 70% of the battery charge in just five minutes.

仅仅需要五分钟。

It just takes five minutes.

这相当于一个人给汽车加油所花费的时间。

That's equivalent, I think, to about the same amount of time that somebody, spends at the pump putting gas into their car.

所以这完全是一个革命性的改变。

So that is a complete game changer.

我记得我们在德国开过的那辆比亚迪汽车。

I remember that BYD car that we drove in Germany.

我们花了大约三十五分钟试图给它充电。

We had to spend about thirty five minutes trying to charge it.

那段时间我们一直担心会不会错过航班。

All the time we were fretting about whether or not we were gonna miss our plane.

所以我真的认为，比亚迪如今在全球市场的渗透才刚刚开始。

So I I I really do think that what we're seeing now in terms of BYD's penetration into global markets is just the beginning.

我来提供几个数字，让情况更具体一些。

Just a couple of numbers to put a little bit of flesh on the bones.

与一年前相比，比亚迪在德国2026年1月的注册量增长了十倍，并且比亚迪如今在全球汽车总销量中排名第六。

BYD's registrations in Germany have jumped 10 times in January 2026 compared to a year ago, and BYD now ranks sixth globally in terms of total auto sales.

这包括电动车和非电动车，而且这使比亚迪首次超越了福特，我们不必提醒任何听众，福特已经存在了一百多年。

So that's EVs and non EVs, and that puts it in in ahead of Ford for the first time ever, and we don't have to remind any of our listeners that Ford's been around for more than a hundred years.

所以我们正在描述的这是一个真正的现象。

So this is a true phenomenon that we're trying to describe here.

你喜欢比亚迪还是特斯拉吗？或者你开过这些车吗？

Do you like BYD Teslas or, you know, have you driven any of these cars?

我实际上开过特斯拉和比亚迪。

I've actually driven both Tesla and a BYD.

你知道，这两款车都很棒，但至少从乘客的角度来看，我觉得比亚迪的体验更好。

I you know, they're both great cars, but I think at least from a standpoint of of, you know, being a passenger, I think BYD was a better experience.

他们考虑了很多细节，比如车内的设计和外观，感觉非常好。

They just have thought of a lot of the, you know, internals, the look of the car, and it feels very good.

甚至车内的操作系统也非常直观。

Even the operating systems within the car dashboard are pretty intuitive.

我确实非常非常印象深刻。

I I've actually been very, very impressed.

而且在这个价位上，如果单纯从每单位使用成本和能效来看，我觉得对很多人来说，比亚迪是毫无疑问的选择。

And and for that price point, I just think that it's a no brainer for a lot of people if they're just purely thinking about, you know, cost per use as well as energy efficiency, BYD is a no brainer.

但当你在说话的时候，詹姆斯，我在想，比亚迪在二月份海外销量首次超过国内销量，这确实意义重大。

But when you were talking, James, I was thinking that it actually is really significant that a company like BYD in February finally saw its overseas sales, its exports exceed its domestic sales.

我认为这对于一家中国汽车制造商来说是一个非常关键的转折点。

That is I think a very critical turning point for a Chinese automaker.

我们现在正处于这样一个阶段：它可以向世界其他地区出口的数量，超过了国内的消费量。

We're at a point now where it can export more to the rest of the world than it can, you know, be consumed domestically.

具体来说，二月份海外销量大约为10万辆，而中国国内销量约为9万辆，一月至二月的海外销量同比飙升了50%。

So just for the numbers, a 100,000 around a 100,000 units were sold abroad in February versus about 90,000 sold in China, and overseas sales in January to February jumped 50% year on year.

这让我觉得，比亚迪在海外市场将有持续的增长潜力。

That suggests to me that there is gonna be legs in terms of an external overseas market for BYD.

别忘了，他们正在全球各地建厂，比如匈牙利、拉丁美洲和东南亚，显然为了规避一些关税问题，同时也应对销售国的产业政策。

And remember they're, you know, building plants all over the place, you know, in Hungary, in Latin America, and Southeast Asia to obviously avoid some of these tariff concerns, but also some of these, you know, industrial policies in in countries that they're selling into.

如果他们能在当地建立制造能力，我认为有助于减轻针对比亚迪这样的中国电动车制造商的贸易反制。

If they can build local manufacturing, that helps, I think, reduce some of the trade backlash against a Chinese EV maker like BYD.

但詹姆斯，你关于电池的观点至关重要。

But your point, James, about the batteries, that's gonna be crucial.

你知道，像比亚迪这样所有环节都自给自足、拥有完整垂直供应链的公司，在油价可能长期维持高位的时期，将继续保持成本优势。

You know, a company like BYD where everything's done in house, it has a fully closed supply chain, will continue to carry the cost advantage in a time where we could see gas prices being at sustained highs.

对吧？

Right?

你知道，未来几个月内，WTI油价可能会持续高于100美元。

You know, WTI might be north of a 100 for at least the foreseeable next couple of months.

我想说的最后一点非常有趣，那就是国内环境。

And then the last thing that I will say that I think is super interesting is the domestic environment.

对吧？

Right?

今年年初，比亚迪和电动车制造商的股价有所回落，这是因为国内持续的成本压力和价格战。

So the stocks have, I think, seen some dampening, BYD stocks and EV maker stocks early this year because of the cost pressures, the price wars that are still happening domestically.

从政府工作报告和五年规划来看，我的理解是，政府仍然重视这场反内卷行动，也就是试图遏制经济和各行业中的恶性价格战和通缩性定价。

And, you know, my takeaway from the government work report in the five year plan is that the government still cares about this anti involution drive, you know, the so called drive to stop these aggressive price wars and deflationary prices in the economy and in sectors.

因此，这可能会在今年减轻比亚迪的部分成本和利润压力。

So potentially, maybe that will reduce some of the cost pressures and profit pressures for BYD this year.

但迄今为止，最重要的观点是你提出的，詹姆斯，那就是他们在海外市场需求方面正享受到强劲的顺风。

But by far, the most important point is the point that you're making, James, is that they are, you know, really enjoying positive tailwinds in terms of overseas market demand for the cars.

是的。

Yeah.

我现在在香港，爱丽丝，今天我刚体验了一次比亚迪的车。

I'm I'm in Hong Kong at the moment, Alice, and, I just had a a BYD experience today, actually.

严格来说不是比亚迪，但绝对是一次中国电动车的体验。

Well, not really a BYD, but certainly a Chinese EV experience.

我在参加的一个活动上跟一个人聊天，他问我：我猜你开的是电动车吧？

I was talking to somebody, at an event that I was at here, and they said to me, so I'm assuming that you drive an EV.

但实际上，我不是。

And, actually, I don't.

我在英国开的是内燃机汽车，就像那种老式汽车，他听到后几乎表现出被冒犯的样子，你知道，居然在这个油价飙升、环境问题如此重要的时代，我还敢开这种油老虎。

I, back in The UK, I drive internal combustion engine car, like an an an old style car, and they looked almost offended, you know, that I would have the temerity to be using a gas guzzler at a time like this when oil prices are rising so so much and the and the the environment is such a big topic.

所以我也认为，同辈压力在未来也会对这个话题产生越来越大的影响。

So I I also think that peer pressure is gonna have an increasing influence on this topic as well.

比亚迪在全球汽车销量方面已经全面超越特斯拉。

BYD has comprehensively overtaken Tesla now in terms of vehicles sold around the world.

2025年，比亚迪售出了226万辆汽车，而特斯拉为164万辆。

In 2025, it sold 2.2, 6,000,000, vehicles against Tesla's 1,640,000.

所以，是的，比亚迪在全球电动汽车领域正迅速领先。

So, yeah, BYD is really streaking out ahead now when it comes to EVs globally.

是的。

Yeah.

还有一个最后的要点，就是电池方面，中国持续占据主导地位。

And then one last point, just the battery side of things, China continues to dominate.

对吧？

Right?

目前，中国的动力电池约占全球市场的70%，负极材料则超过90%。

So China's power batteries, currently have about 70% of the global market and the anode materials over past 90%.

所以，如果我们看看电动汽车供应链的其他方面，中国确实一直保持主导地位。

So if we just think about the other aspects of the EV supply chain, China has really continued to dominate.