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条款和条件适用。
Terms and conditions apply.
招聘，就用Indeed，做对的事。
Hiring, do it the right way with Indeed.
我是梅根·拉皮诺。
Megan Rapinoe here.
本周《更多一点》节目，内容丰富，适合每个人。
This week on a touch more, we've got something for everyone.
我们讨论了美国女子奥运选手获得的奖牌数超过男子队、美国女足国家队即将参加“她相信杯”的阵容，以及WNBA劳资协议谈判的最新进展。
We're talking about The US women Olympians taking home more medals than the men, the US women's national team roster heading into the She Believes Cup, and the latest on the WNBA CBA negotiations.
请在您收听播客的平台或YouTube上收听《更多一点》的最新一期节目。
Check out the latest episode of a touch more wherever you get your podcasts and on YouTube.
当你想到注意力缺陷多动障碍（ADHD）患者时，你会想到谁？
When you think of someone with ADHD, who comes to mind?
是那位三十多岁的女性吗？
Is it a woman in her thirties?
就是一种持续的感觉，觉得自己太过分了，太活跃、太吵闹，所有‘太过’的标签都贴在身上，总觉得别人手里有一本社交规则手册，而我却从未拿到过。
Just this constant feeling of being too much, you know, too kinetic, too loud, all of the too anything, and just really feeling like people got some kind of social rule book that I never got.
注意力缺陷多动障碍（ADHD）的面貌正在改变。
The changing face of ADHD.
本周《给我解释一下》就是这个话题。
That's this week on Explain It To Me.
新节目每周日上线，各大播客平台均可收听。
New episodes, Sundays, wherever you get your podcasts.
欢迎收听《教授G播客》的特别节目。
Welcome to a special episode of the professor g pod.
我们是在3月2日星期一录制的这期节目，距离美国和以色列在经历数月紧张局势升级后，对伊朗发动大规模军事行动仅过去三天。
We're recording this on Monday, March 2, just three days after The United States and Israel launched a large scale military campaign against Iran following months of escalating tensions.
2月28日，美国和以色列军队对伊朗境内数百个军事、导弹和指挥设施目标进行了打击。
On February 28, US and Israeli forces struck hundreds of military, missile, and command infrastructure targets across Iran.
在这次行动中，两国政府击毙了最高领袖阿亚图拉·阿里·哈梅内伊以及数十名伊朗高级领导人。
In an operation, the two governments, they killed supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and scores of Iranian senior leaders.
特朗普总统表示，这场行动可能持续四到五周，五角大楼已确认美军出现伤亡，有美国士兵在行动中阵亡，预计还会有更多。
President Trump has said the campaign could continue for four or five weeks, and the Pentagon has confirmed US military casualties with American troops killed in action and more expected.
作为回应，伊朗已向以色列城市和中东地区（包括海湾国家）的美国基地发射了弹道导弹和无人机。
In response, Iran has launched ballistic missiles and drones at Israeli cities and US bases across The Middle East, including in Gulf States.
火箭和无人机的相互攻击也牵涉了真主党和黎巴嫩，导致以色列也在那里发动了袭击。
Rocket and drone exchanges have also drawn in Hezbollah and Lebanon, prompting Israeli strikes there as well.
这场冲突现已蔓延至多个战线，扰乱了石油市场和全球航空旅行，并引发世界各国领导人对更大范围地区升级风险的警告。
The conflict now spans multiple fronts, has disrupted oil markets and global air travel, and drawn warnings from world leaders about the risk of wider regional escalation.
今天和我一起讨论这一切的是记者、作家和政治评论员弗里德·扎卡里亚。
Here with me to discuss all of this is Fried Zakaria, a journalist, author, and political commentator.
弗里德，我猜你现在可能是世界上需求最旺盛的人之一，那我们直接切入正题吧。
Fried, I imagine you're one of the most in demand people in the world right now, so let's bust right into it.
想象一下你的国务卿——顺便说一句，在当今这个时代，脱口秀主持人进入内阁已不是什么稀奇事。
Imagine your secretary of state, which by the way is not a stretch in these days when we have talk show hosts are are are now in the cabinet.
但假设你是国务卿，在可能即将发生的袭击前三天，或者三周，你被要求做一个风险评估。
But imagine you're secretary of state and three days or three weeks maybe before what might be an imminent attack, you're asked to do kind of a risk assessment.
评估对伊朗采取军事行动的潜在收益与风险。
Risks to the upside, risks to the downside of attacking military action against Iran.
从你的角度来看，逐个为我们分析一下这些情况。
Walk us through each of those in your view.
当然。
Sure.
这其实是一个令人惊讶的行动，因为别忘了，八个月前，美国和以色列成功发动了一系列袭击，摧毁了伊朗的核计划，杀死了大多数关键的伊朗核科学家——这一点常常被忽视，同时还杀死了大约20名伊朗军方高级指挥官。
So it's it's a surprising mission because remember, eight months ago, The United States and Israel did a very successful series of strikes that destroyed Iran's nuclear program, killed most of the leading Iranian nuclear scientists, something that often isn't talked about, and killed about 20 senior commanders of the of the Iranian military.
因此，积极的一面是，你能够斩首政权，导致其崩溃。
So the the upside here would be that you get a decapitation of the regime that causes the regime to collapse.
这显然是巨大的期望，不仅总统将此作为其行动目标公开宣布，内塔尼亚胡总理也在一段视频中表达了同样的观点。
That is clearly what the great hope has been, not just for the president who announced that as his the goal of his mission, but also prime minister Netanyahu who said that in a video.
他说，这是我四十年来的梦想。
He said this is a forty year dream of mine.
但请记住，伊朗的核计划本身并没有四十年的历史。
And remember, the Iranian nuclear program is not forty years old in that sense.
他真正指的是彻底铲除整个政权本身。
It's you know, what he's talking about is really getting rid of the regime itself.
所以这就是最大的收获。
So that's the big prize.
这正是他们在有利情况下主要追求的目标。
That's the main thing they're looking for on the upside.
接下来，真正削弱伊朗。
Next, really defang Iran.
这现在已经不仅仅是关于核计划，而是关于伊朗作为地区强国的地位。
So this is now not just about the nuclear program, but about Iran as a regional power.
你可以造成大量的破坏。
And you can achieve you can do a lot of damage.
你可以摧毁他们的海军。
You can destroy their navy.
你可以摧毁他们的弹道导弹能力。
You can destroy their ballistic missile capability.
你可以摧毁他们的军事工业综合体。
You can destroy the military industrial complex.
所以是弹道导弹制造设施、港口，你知道的，那些实际停泊舰船的港口设施，类似的东西。
So the ballistic missile making facilities, the port, you know, the port facilities that actually house the ships, things like that.
最后，你还可以利用这个机会重创他们，使他们经济上一蹶不振，再也无法资助真主党。
And finally, you can use this opportunity also to to destroy them and to set them back so much economically that they're not going to be able to fund Hezbollah anymore.
他们也无法再大量资助伊拉克民兵组织，至少不会像以前那样。
They're not going to be able to fund the Iraqi militias anymore, at least, you know, not in any substantial degree.
所以基本上，就是要打垮这个政权，寄希望于政权崩溃。
So basically, break the back of the regime and hope that the regime collapses.
这在我看来，似乎是最大的潜在收益。
That's the that that seems to me the to be the big upside.
但 downside 是，这是一个高度制度化的政权。
The downside is this is a highly institutionalized regime.
这并不是一个独裁者。
This is not a single dictator.
这可不是萨达姆·侯赛因。
This is not Saddam Hussein.
这甚至不是普京。
This is not even Putin.
这是一个非常复杂的制度化政权，拥有宗教阶层和军事阶层，这两者之间有着成熟的关系，有点像昔日苏联的共产党与军队，以及在一定程度上现代中国的模式。
This is a very complicated institutionalized regime with a clerical establishment, a military establishment of a worked out relationship between those two two groups, a little bit like the, you know, the communist party and the and the army in the in the old Soviet Union and to a certain extent in in modern China.
因此，这并不像看起来那么容易。
And so it's not clear that that's going to be as easy.
你知道，你总有可能走运，但这件事似乎很难，尤其是当你不会使用地面部队的时候。
You know, you can always get lucky, but it seems hard, and it's particularly hard given that you're not gonna use ground troops.
你试图仅靠空中力量来实现。
You're trying to do it from the air.
仅靠空中力量进行政权更迭非常困难。
Very hard to do regime change from the air.
人们可以看看阿富汗和利比亚，但别忘了，那里有地面部队。
People you know, you can look at Afghanistan and Libya, but remember, there were ground forces.
只是那些部队不是我们的。
They just weren't ours.
北方联盟在阿富汗境内势如破竹，一个省接一个省地推进，而中情局和美国空军则协助了他们。
The Northern Alliance was in Afghanistan sweeping through province after province while the CIA and American air power helped them.
在利比亚，曾爆发大规模起义，美国和其他国家通过空袭给予了支持。
In Libya, there was a huge insurgency that The United States and others were helped by the bombing.
在这里，我们没有任何人。
Here, we don't have anybody.
地面没有任何军队。
There there is no army on the ground.
因此，主要的限制和主要的风险在于，最终你将成功定义为政权更迭。
So that's the principal limitation, and the principal danger here is at the end of the day, you have defined success as regime change.
特朗普总统在讲话中宣布了这一点，内塔尼亚胡总理也谈到了，这显而易见。
President Trump announced it in his message, and prime minister Netanyahu talked about it, and it's obvious.
对他们来说，生存就是胜利。
Survival is victory for them.
第二个挑战是地区因素，虽然我不认为这会是最重要的，但它确实存在。
The second challenge is going to be the regional element, though I wouldn't put this that high, but it's real.
他们可能在地区范围内造成重大干扰。
They could disrupt things regionally substantially.
我个人认为，这是一个短期风险。
My own view is that's a short term risk.
你注意到油价并没有飙升。
You notice oil prices have not gone, you know, through the roof.
它们确实上涨了。
They've gone up.
汽油价格没有飙升，因为所有这些设施都可以修复。
Gas prices haven't gone through the roof because all these facilities can be repaired.
伊朗并没有无限供应这类武器。
Iran does not have an unlimited supply of these kind of weapons.
真正引人注目的是，阿联酋的防空系统表现得多么出色，沙特的也是如此，尽管我们对后者了解得少一些。
What's really striking is how well the air defenses of The UAE have held up, even of Saudi, though we know a little bit less about it.
最重要的是，这是伊朗人最大的误判。
And most importantly, this was the biggest miscalculation the Iranians made.
他们让海湾国家团结起来支持这项任务。
They've united The Gulf in support of this mission.
仔细想想。
Think about it.
现在海湾阿拉伯国家支持美国和以色列对抗伊朗的任务，因为伊朗人一直在肆意报复九个不同的阿拉伯国家。
You now have the Gulf Arabs supporting an American Israeli mission against Iran because the Iranians have been, you know, retaliating willy nilly at nine different Arab countries.
这可能是他们犯下的最大单一错误。
This this was probably the biggest single mistake they made.
另一个不利因素，我认为，是你可以想象一种情况，现在该地区存在某种普遍的不稳定性，有点像也门的胡塞武装那样，你将不得不应对波斯湾变成某种危险区域。
And the other downside, I I think, is you could imagine a circumstance where there is now a kind of, you know, generic instability built into the region, a little bit like the Houthis in Yemen, you know, that you're gonna have to deal with Persian Gulf becomes a kind of dangerous territory.
保险公司不愿意去那里。
Insurance companies aren't willing to go to go there.
我认为主要危险在于生存问题。
I think the principal danger is the survival.
另外两个是合理的危险。
The other two are are reasonable dangers.
但请记住，总体而言，伊朗非常非常虚弱。
But remember, overall, Iran is very, very weak.
所以它能使用的牌并不多。
So it doesn't have a lot of cards that it can play.
让我提出另一个潜在的积极面。
Let me propose another potential upside.
我发现我其实是个悲观主义者，所以我总是会问自己，什么可能会变好。
I find I'm actually a pessimist, so I always try to ask myself what could go right.
九千万人口，拥有杰出的科学家和大学，坐拥全球第二大天然气储量和第三大石油储量，却几十年来一直未能发挥应有的实力。
90,000,000 people, incredible scientists, universities, sitting on top of the second largest natural reserves of gas, third largest reserves of oil, has been kind of punching below its weight class for a couple decades now.
也许它不会倒向西方，但会保持中立，不再以‘打倒以色列’或‘打倒美国’为行动纲领，而成为欧洲和西方的优秀贸易伙伴。
Maybe doesn't become pro West, becomes West neutral, and decides that the organizing principle isn't death to Israel or death to America, and becomes a great trading partner for Europe and the West.
波斯那辉煌的文化再次被释放出来。
And this incredible culture of Persia is unlocked again.
我们最终将实现所有人对中东所憧憬的和平与繁荣。
And we end up with kind of the peace and prosperity that we've all envisioned for the Middle East.
这是空想吗？
Is that a pipe dream?
这并不是空想，你描述的国内情况完全正确。
It's not a pipe dream, and the conditions you described inside the country are 100% right.
我确实去过伊朗。
I mean, I've been to Iran.
我总是被伊朗人民对本国的热爱所震撼。
I'm always struck by how pro Iranian people are.
不过我得小心一点。
Now I have to be careful.
通常来说，他们只让你去德黑兰，农村地区更支持政权，年长者更保守、更宗教化。
Mostly, you know, they only let you go around Tehran, And rural areas are more pro regime, more con you know, older people are more conservative, more religious.
所以我会这么说：这就是为什么我说最大的希望是政权垮台。
So the way I would put it is that's why I said the principal upside is regime collapse.
你的设想只有在政权垮台后才能实现，因为这些人立场强硬、极为压制，而且能撑得住。
You need a regime collapse for your scenario to unfold because these guys are gonna you know, they are hardline, very repressive, and they can stick it out.
他们手握枪支，而且正如他们所展示的那样，他们愿意杀人。
They've got the guns, and they're willing to kill as they showed.
所以，为了让你的梦想成真，我们需要看到政权内部出现一些裂痕。
So in order for your dream to come true, we need to see some cracks in the regime.
你需要看到军队的某些部分可能与神职机构保持距离。
You need to see some maybe parts of the armies distance themselves from parts of the clerical establishment.
这通常是你开始看到政权垮台时会看到的那种情况。
That's typically the kind of thing that you see when begin to see regimes fall.
但如果这种情况真的发生，让事情发展下去，展开‘可能顺利的一面’这个设想，你看，伊朗是世界上重要的贸易国家之一。
But if that were to happen, to play out, to spin out the what can go right scenario, look, Iran is one of the great trading nations of the world.
它在历史上一直非常务实于其外交政策。
It has always been very pragmatic in its in its foreign policy historically.
伊朗在沙阿时期与以色列是有关系的。
Iran had relations with Israel, you know, under the shah.
事实上，德黑兰的供水系统是由以色列工程师建造的。
In fact, the Iranian the Tehran's water system was built by Israeli engineers.
他们缺水的一个原因，是伊朗总统曾提到，可能不得不将首都从德黑兰迁走，因为情况实在太糟糕了。
And if one of the reasons they're they're they're running out of water the president of the the president of Iran has talked about maybe having to move the capital from Tehran because they're in such bad shape.
问题的一部分在于，他们无法请以色列人来帮忙修复，而以色列人恰恰可能是这方面的最佳专家。
And part of the problem is they can't get the Israelis to come in and help them fix it because they're the ones who who would probably be the best experts at this.
因此，波斯人务实的贸易传统完全有可能重新显现。
So there there is a tradition of Persian trading practicality that could absolutely come come to be.
但我必须提醒，这是一个非常强硬的政权。
But I would caution, it's a very tough regime.
他们体制化程度很高，我也不想完全忽视伊朗内部真实存在的宗教因素。
They are very institutionalized, and I don't want to discount entirely the there is a sheer religious element within Iran that is real.
我给你一个简单的例子。
I give you a simple example.
看看隔壁的伊拉克，那里有自由选举。
Look next door at Iraq where they have free elections.
什叶派人口，作为人口的很大一部分，投票支持那些宗教与政治合一的政党，这些政党常常由穆克塔达·萨德尔这样的毛拉领导。
The Shia population, a large part of the population, votes for parties that are religious and political, often led by mullahs like Muqtad al Sadr.
在什叶派传统中，宗教权威与政治权威是混为一体的。
So there is within the Shia tradition a conflation of religious and political authority.
这对西方人来说非常陌生。
It's very alien to those of us in the West.
顺便说一句，对于我在德黑兰遇到的那些都市自由派人士来说，这也同样陌生，他们非常推崇你所描述的那种伊朗愿景。
It's also very alien, by the way, to all the people who I met in Tehran who are like urban liberals who very much espouse the kind of vision of of Iran that you described.
但在农村地区，还存在着另一个伊朗。
But there is another Iran out there in the in the rural areas.
本着谦逊的态度，我们对它了解得还不够。
And just a matter of humility, we don't know enough about it.
但正如我所说，他们似乎更宗教化、更保守、年龄也更大一些。
But as I said, they they tend to seem to be a little more religious, a little more conservative, a little older.
当你看伊拉克时，你会发现，即使在自由选举下，人们依然会把大量选票投给宗教和宗教政治势力。
And and when you look at Iraq, you you see that even free elections, you end up with a lot of religious and religiopolitical authority being given votes.
我听到过一种观点，主要来自右翼媒体人士，尤其是播客主持人，认为这一切都是内塔尼亚胡和以色列策划的。
I've heard a theme across sort of right leaning media figures, mostly podcasters, that this has all been orchestrated by Netanyahu and Israel.
你认为以色列的影响力在多大程度上起到了作用，或者根本没有起作用？
To what extent do you think Israel's influence played or didn't play a role in this?
我认为他们那种说法我非常反感，因为它暗示有一种邪恶的以色列势力牢牢掌控着美国的外交政策，这触发了各种反犹太主义的刻板印象，我认为这些既恶劣又错误。
I I think the the kind of way they may they put it, I really dislike because it's a kind of as if there is this nefarious Israeli, you know, kind of a grip on American foreign policy, and it's raising all kinds of antisemitic tropes that I think are are both terrible and wrong.
而且，我认为人们真的应该小心，不要做这种事。
And and, you know, I think people should really be careful not to do that kind of thing.
我认为在这种情况下，别忘了，自伊朗建国以来，美国就一直反对伊朗政府。
I think in this case, remember, The United States has been, you know, opposed to the Iranian government since its opposite since its founding.
伊朗人曾扣押美国人为人质。
The unite you know, the Iranians took Americans hostages.
伊朗人曾在世界各地多次试图攻击美国人。
The Iranians have tried to attack Americans in various places all over the world.
美国与伊朗之间一直是一种非常敌对的关系。
This is a very adversarial relationship The United States has had with Iran.
我认为可以说，内塔尼亚胡个人对特朗普有很大的影响力。
I think it's fair to say that Bibi Netanyahu has personally a lot of influence with Donald Trump.
特朗普非常容易被个性和人际关系影响，他喜欢内塔尼亚胡。
And Trump is a man very swayed by personalities, by people, and he likes Bibi.
他喜欢听内塔尼亚胡说话，也喜欢和他一起做事的想法。
And he likes, you know, listening to him, and he likes the idea of doing things with him.
我认为内塔尼亚胡向他灌输了一个梦想：你可以成为那个解放伊朗的人。
And I think Bibi Najinia, who sold him a dream that you will you can be the guy who liberates Iran.
以往的每一位总统都不得不容忍他们。
Every other president has had to tolerate them.
你可以成为那个解放他们的人。
You can be the guy who liberates them.
我认为特朗普对这种想法是接受的。
And Trump is, I think, amenable to that kind of idea.
我觉得他把自己看作一个命运之人，一个要成就大事的人，尤其是在处理委内瑞拉、伊朗或古巴这样的国家时。
I think he sees himself as a man of destiny, you know, a person who's gonna do big things, particularly when dealing with countries like Venezuela or Iran or Cuba.
你能看得出来。
You know, you can see it.
他想让他们服服帖帖。
Like, he wants to bring them to heel.
所以我认为内塔尼亚胡说服了他，认为这是一个绝佳的机会。
So I think Bibi Netanyahu convinced him that this would there was a great moment of opportunity.
伊朗从未如此虚弱。
Iran would never be weaker.
各方力量都已处于有利位置。
The forces are arrayed in the right position.
所以我认为应该这样理解，而且我认为这是准确的。
So I think that's the way to think of it, and I think that is accurate.
但我认为，说美国在为以色列效劳这一整个想法，忽略了美国长期以来与伊斯兰共和国处于生死对立的事实，而伊斯兰共和国也已与美国进行了长达四十七年的深刻、暴力的对抗。
But I think the whole idea that, you know, The United States is doing Israel's bidding misses the fact that The United States has been in, you know, existential opposition to the Islamic Republic, and the Islamic Republic has been, of course, in a deep existential and violent opposition to The United States for forty seven years.
你给我们带来了一个非常有趣的观点，你是最早指出这一点的人之一，即攻击海湾国家的民用基础设施和住宅区是一个巨大的战略失误，我认为他们已经袭击了九到十个地方。
You brought us something really interesting, and you were one of the first people to point this out that this huge strategic blunder of attacking civilian infrastructure and residential properties in different Gulf states, I think they've attacked nine or 10.
我认为伊朗人的理由是，我们要在该地区制造动荡。
I think their rationale, the Iranians' rationale, is we are going to sow instability throughout the region.
你想要一场战争。
You want a war.
这场战争不会局限于伊朗。
It's not gonna be confined to Iran.
我们会让沙特的石油设施遭到破坏。
We are gonna make it so that, you know, Saudi oil facilities are damaged.
卡塔尔的天然气设施也会遭到破坏。
The Qatar natural gas facilities are damaged.
霍尔木兹海峡的航运将开始变得极其缓慢。
Straits Of Hormuz, the the the shipping starts slowing to a crawl.
问题是，他们实际上没有足够的火力来实现这一点。
The problem is they don't actually have the firepower to pull that off.
因此，他们最终采取的是一些小规模的袭击，这些袭击在军事上几乎没有意义。
So what they've ended up doing are pinprick attacks that militarily have very little significance.
这些设施几天内，甚至几周内就能修复。
The the facilities are gonna be repaired in a few days, if not a few weeks.
但政治上的影响是让所有原本保持中立的海湾国家站到了一边。
But the political effect has been to take all the Gulf states that were neutral.
其中许多国家曾表示，你们不能使用我们的设施。
Many of them had said you can't use our facilities.
有些国家甚至表示，你们连我们的领空都不能使用。
Some of them had said you can't even use our airspace.
现在所有海湾国家都已全面支持，他们私下告诉美国和以色列：放手去做吧。
Now all the Gulf states are all in, and they're telling The United States and Israel privately, go for it.
事实上，其中一些国家甚至希望亲自参与，以向伊朗表明，你们不能这样侵犯他们的领土。
In fact, they some of them even want to participate to show the Iranians that you can't do this kind of thing to their territory.
所以我认为这是一次重大误判，正如我从一开始就所说的。
So I think it was a big miscalculation, as I've said from the start.
但他们的理由，我想大概是：我们总得打点什么吧。
But their rationale, I suppose, was, look.
我们总得找个地方下手。
We've gotta hit somewhere.
我们都知道，攻击美国军舰是不可能的。
We you know, hitting American naval ships is impossible.
它们得到了很好的保护。
They're very well protected.
所以这就是我们可以下手的地方。
So this is where we can go.
但他们没有考虑到，这一举动反而对他们产生了政治上的反噬效果。
But they didn't think through the fact that this has had a political boomerang effect on them.
所以假设特朗普政府无法实现政权更迭，似乎可以提出这样一个假设：特朗普政府或许有些天真地希望，地面上的不是士兵，而是穿着凉鞋或运动鞋的平民，伊朗民众会因美国军事攻击的掩护而揭竿而起，从而推动政权更迭。
So say that the Trump administration isn't able to affect regime change, it feels as if well, let me put forward the hypothesis that the Trump administration maybe a bit naively was hoping that the boots on the ground would be sandals or sneakers on the ground, that the Iranian public would rise up and and catalyze the actual regime change with cloud cover from American military attacks.
这个假设听起来合理吗？
Does that seem like a reasonable hypothesis?
这似乎就是他们所期望的。
It seems like that was what they were hoping.
你看。
And look.
你总有可能走运。
You you can always get lucky.
如果他们继续这样下去，不断打击这个政权，谁知道呢？
And if they keep at this and they continue to pummel the regime, who knows?
我只能说，从历史上看，这种情况——嗯，我想不出有哪个例子发生过。
All I can say is historically, that that has you know, I can't think of a case where that has happened.
这太难了。
It's it's it's tough.
对吧？
Right?
因为这些人手里还有机枪。
The because these guys still have machine guns.
他们知道你没法除掉这些武器，所以会用它们。
They see you're not gonna be able to get rid of those, and they'll use them.
他们过去就用过。
They've used them in the past.
我们马上回来。
We'll be right back.
嘿。
Hey.
我是卡拉·斯威舍。
Kara Swisher here.
我想通知大家，Vox Media 将重返德克萨斯州奥斯汀的西南偏南大会，进行您喜爱播客的现场录制。
I wanna let you know that Vox Media is returning to South by Southwest in Austin for live tapings of your favorite podcast.
请在3月13日至15日前来参加《今日解析》《塔菲谈话》《教授G市场》以及当然还有您的两档播客《转折点》和《与卡拉·斯威舍同行》的现场录制。
Join us from March 13 through the fifteenth for live tapings of Today Explained, Tuffy Talks, Prof G Markets, and of course, your two podcasts, Pivot and On with Kara Swisher.
舞台还将呈现蕾妮·布朗和亚当·格兰特、马尔克·布朗利、基思·李、维维安·图以及罗宾·阿尔赞的专场活动。
The stage will also feature sessions from Renee Brown and Adam Grant, Marques Brownlee, Keith Lee, Vivian Tu, and Robin Arzan.
这一切都是由Odoo赞助的Vox Media播客舞台在西南偏南大会上的组成部分。
It's all part of the Vox Media podcast stage at South by Southwest presented by Odoo.
请访问 voxmedia.com/sxsw 预注册并获取您的创新通行证专属折扣。
Visit voxmedia.com/sxsw to preregister and get your special discount on your innovation badge.
注册请访问 voxmedia.com/sxsw。
That's voxmedia.com/sxsw to register.
真的，你应该去注册。
Really, you should register.
我们总是满员，期待在那里见到你。
We sell out, and we hope to see you there.
嘿，大家。
Hey, guys.
我是塔菲，《塔菲谈话》的主持人。
It's me, Tuffy, the host of Tuffy Talks.
本周的节目，我们将进行一场状态总结，但更准确地说，是关于2026年流行文化的状态，从奥司他韦到传统妻子。
On this week's episode, we're doing a state of the union, but more state of pop culture 2026 from Ozempic to trad wives.
真吓人。
Spooky.
为什么流行文化的中心现在在犹他州？
And why the center of pop culture is in Utah now?
我们深入探讨了克洛伊和拉马尔。
We do a deep dive on Chloe and Lamar.
我们聊了希拉里·达夫。
We talk Hilary Duff.
你知道吗？
You know what?
在Tuffy Talks的全平台都能找到我们。
Find us everywhere at Tuffy Talks.
在YouTube、所有播客平台、Instagram和TikTok上订阅我们，这样你就可以分享给你的工作闺蜜，以及希望你认识的每一个人。
Subscribe on YouTube and all the podcast platforms and Instagram and TikTok so you can share with your other work bestie and, hopefully, everyone you've ever met.
你好。
Hi.
我是卡拉·斯威舍。
This is Kara Swisher.
本周在我的播客《与卡拉·斯威舍同行》中，我采访了加利福尼亚州州长加文·纽森。
And this week on my podcast, on with Kara Swisher, I talked to California governor Gavin Newsom.
尽管他尚未正式宣布参选总统，但他一直在频频释放这一信号。
While he hasn't officially announced to run for president yet, he's telegraphing it all the time.
这让人精疲力尽。
It's exhausting.
他还出了一本新书，这正是你竞选总统时会做的事。
He's also got a new book out, which is what you do when you're running for president.
这本书叫《急躁的年轻男子》。
It's called young man in a hurry.
我最近在旧金山对他进行了现场采访。
I recently interviewed him live in San Francisco.
听听看。
Have a listen.
民主党经常面临的问题是我们显得软弱，我们必须变得更强大、更果断。
The problem with the Democratic party so often is we appear weak, and we've gotta be stronger, and we've gotta be more assertive.
因此，我认为，这是这个时代所需要的精气神。
And so that's you know, it's the spirit, I think, that is required of this moment.
我认识加文·纽森很久了，从他一百万年前还是旧金山市长时，那时他用了一百万瓶发胶，他是一位非常有趣且富有魅力的政治家。
I've known Gavin Newsom since he was mayor of San Francisco a million years ago, a million hair gels ago, and he's a really interesting and compelling politician.
他在职业生涯中做了很多事情。
He's done a lot of things in his career.
而这一次，即将发生的总统竞选，是最有意思的之一。
And this one, this run for presidency, which is going to happen, is among the most interesting.
你可以在任何收听播客的地方以及YouTube上找到完整的对话，这是显而易见的。
You can find a full conversation wherever you get your podcast and on YouTube, obviously.
请务必关注并订阅卡拉·斯威舍的节目，获取更多内容。
Be sure to follow and subscribe to on with Kara Swisher for more.
我把这些军事行动描述为一部邦德电影。
I've described these military operations as a Bond film.
开场总是令人惊叹。
The openings are always amazing.
邦德电影的开场总是非常出色。
Bond films always nail the opening.
然后我们继续看，到底是科索沃还是科威特，结局才真正圆满，像一部出色的邦德电影，还是伊拉克或阿富汗？
And then we go on to see, alright, is it Kosovo or Kuwait that it ends really well, that it's a great Bond film, or is it Iraq or Afghanistan?
你知道，总是第二个结局才常常有些出人意料。
And, you know, it's it's the second ending that is always sort of a bit unpredictable.
从我的角度来看，我对有关‘鲍威尔准则’——即始终要有明确目标——的沟通混乱感到非常震惊。
I have been struck at what, from my perspective, seems like really poor inconsistent messaging around, I think it was the Powell doctrine of always have objectives.
比如，如果没有具体的目标，一旦完成就能宣告胜利并撤出，就不要轻易介入。
Like, don't go into something unless there are specific objectives that once you accomplish, you can declare victory and leave.
你对特朗普政府所宣称的、或根本未明确的目标有什么看法？
What are your thoughts so far on the stated or lack thereof stated objectives from the Trump administration?
是的。
Yeah.
这是他们最大的错误。
This is their biggest mistake.
他们没有清晰的目标。
They don't have clear objectives.
就他们拥有的目标而言，这是一个非常难以实现的目标，即政权更迭。
To the extent they have one, it's a very hard one to achieve, which is regime change.
而且，除了这个目标之外，很难理解他们会将什么定义为成功。
And it's very hard, short of that, to understand what they would define as success.
他们本应列出一系列目标，比如我们希望削弱伊朗的弹道导弹能力，使其不再威胁邻国。
They should have laid out a series of, you know, this is what we would like to degrade Iran's ballistic missile capability so that it no longer threatens its neighbors.
我们希望削弱伊朗的海军力量，使其不再对霍尔木兹海峡的石油安全运输构成威胁。
We want to degrade Iran's navy so that it no longer poses a threat to the sea safe flow of oil in and out of the Straits Of Hormuz.
我们想要削弱伊朗的指挥控制能力，让他们无法再在中东地区运营这些民兵组织。
We want to degrade Iran's command and control so that they can no longer run these militias around the Middle East.
这些本应是你可以理解的目标。
Those would have been, you know, goals that you could understand.
坦率地说，他们可以某种程度上定义成功，因为你知道，很多信息都是机密的。
Frankly, they could kind of define success because, you know, a lot of the information would be classified.
但通过将成功定义为某种非常宏大且公开可见的东西，我们都能看到，对吧？
But by defining success by something very large and very public, we can all see, right?
很难说他们实现了这一目标，因为政权并未垮台。
And it's hard to say that they've achieved that goal because the regime has not fallen.
而且同样地，他们或许会走运，但到目前为止政权仍未垮台。
And again, they may get lucky, but so far the regime has not fallen.
你认为成功的一种策略可能是说：好吧。
Do you think one strategy for success might be saying, alright.
我们要在军事上、动能上、政治上和经济上解除他们的武装吗？
We're gonna neuter them militarily, kinetically, politically, economically?
在我看来，如果你同意的话，目前阻碍中东实现相对稳定的关键因素就是伊朗。
And it sounds to me tell me if you agree with this, that the only thing standing between the Middle East and relative stability right now is Iran.
似乎在私下里，海湾国家的大多数国家已经某种程度上与以色列达成了和解。
It seems like in in kind of under under their breath, if you will, the majority of the Gulf States have sort of made peace with Israel.
是的。
Yeah.
所以，如果特朗普政府真的能够实现：好吧，现在它曾经是一只老虎。
So if in fact, if the Trump administration was able to accomplish, alright, it's now it used to be a tiger.
现在它就像一只昏迷的老虎，对任何人都不构成威胁。
Now it's a comatose tiger and poses no threat to anybody.
即使没有政权更迭，他们难道不能干脆宣布胜利然后撤出吗？这样我们可能会拥有一个更加稳定的中东？
Even without regime change, couldn't they just sort of declare victory and leave, and potentially we'd have a much more stable Middle East?
是的。
Yes.
我认为这是对的。
I think that that's true.
我认为重要的是要记住，伊朗是一个破坏稳定的因素。
I think it's important to remember Iran is a destabilizing factor.
它一直支持这些民兵组织。
It has been supporting these militias.
在许多方面，它一直在试图恐吓。
It has been, in many ways, you know, trying to intimidate.
我一直认为，它的核计划主要是为了恐吓，而不是为了实际使用。
You know, I've always thought its nuclear program was designed to intimidate more than to use that.
他们一直希望在核武器前一步之遥，以此表明：我们本可以拥有这些武器。
They always wanted to be one step before nuclear weapons as a way of saying, you know, we could have these.
而且他们是一种极其残酷、压迫性的、千禧年主义的政权。
And they are, you know, a kind of very brutal, repressive, millenarian regime.
请记住，伊朗唯一一项军事创新就是无人机，名为‘沙希德’，这种无人机已被俄罗斯用于乌克兰。
Remember, this is a the the only military innovation that Iran has has produced is a drone, the name of which is Shahid, which is used by the Russians in Ukraine.
而‘沙希德’的意思是殉道者。
And a Shahid means martyr.
所以，就连他们的无人机，他们都称之为殉道者。
So even their drones, they call martyrs.
对吧？
Right?
但这种做法背后有一种殉道崇拜，也就是说，我们愿意付出这样的代价。
There but that is there's a kind of cult of martyrdom about it, which is, you know, we're willing to pay these prices.
你说得对。
And you're right.
中东没有其他国家像这样，这是一个巨大的转变。
Nobody else in The Middle East is like that, and that's very big transformation.
你知道吗？
You know?
仅仅二十年前，沙特人还曾为他们称为巴勒斯坦烈士的巴勒斯坦恐怖分子举办电视筹款活动。
It's only twenty years ago that the Saudis used to host telethons for Palestinian terrorists whom they called Palestinian martyrs.
海湾阿拉伯国家已经发生了彻底的转变。
The the Middle the Gulf Arabs have been totally transformed.
埃及也已经发生了转变。
Egypt has been transformed.
土耳其仍然是一个复杂的权力体。
Turkey is still, you know, kind of a complex power.
但总的来说，如果没有伊朗这个特定政权，中东会更加稳定、可预测。
But but, yeah, in general, you would have a much more stable, predictable Middle East if you didn't have this particular regime in Iran.
也许你会发现，斯科特，这是另一种可能走向好的情况：该政权得以生存，但形式上更像一个军事独裁，而非神权军事独裁。
And maybe you will find that what ends up happening, Scott, this is one another kind of what could go right scenario, that is that the regime survives, but in a form that it essentially becomes more of a military dictatorship than a theological military dictatorship.
因此，这种情况更加务实。
And as a result of that, it is more practical.
而且，你知道，也许国内稍微开放了一点，但最重要的是，它在海外的干涉少多了。
And, you know, maybe it's a little bit more open at at home, but most importantly, it it is much less meddlesome abroad.
它意识到这场游戏已经结束了。
It it realizes that that game is over.
很难想象还有哪个国家像伊朗这样，在国内、地区和国际上的实力下降得如此迅速。
It's hard to think of a of a nation that has fallen further faster in terms of its power or the power it can exert domestically, regionally, and internationally than Iran.
这不仅对伊朗国内和中东地区有影响，而且影响更远。
And there are ramifications not only within the country and in The Middle East, but beyond that.
我了解到，伊朗80%的石油都出口到了中国。
My understanding is 80% of the oil from Iran was going to China.
他们显然在各地都有代理人，而且曾与俄罗斯结盟。
They obviously have proxies all over the you know, they were allies with Russia.
你提到过乌克兰，他们曾向俄罗斯提供无人机，支持其对乌克兰的战争。
You mentioned Ukraine that were supplying drones for Russia in their war against Ukraine.
你认为伊朗的崩溃或被削弱会对中东以外的国家产生什么影响？
How do you think the collapse or the defanging, if you will, of Iran affects nations outside of the Middle East?
他们在中东以外并没有太大的影响力，但确实与俄罗斯有着相当密切的联系。
They haven't had a large footprint outside the Middle East, but they did have this one fairly close connection with with Russia.
现在俄罗斯自己就能制造无人机了。
The Russians now make the drones themselves.
实际上，伊朗已经将这项技术许可给了俄罗斯。
Effectively, the Iranians have kind of licensed the technology to Russia.
但你看，我认为这对所谓的俄中伊朝轴心构成了沉重打击。
But, look, I think it's a it's a blow to that whole idea of a kind of Russia, China, Iran, North Korea axis.
这些家伙都是不良行为者。
And these guys are bad actors.
只要他们被挫败一点，就会对这个不稳定轴心以及它所代表的反西方阵营造成打击。
And to the extent that they get, you know, taken down a notch, it is a, you know, a kind of blow to that axis of instability and the anti Western axis that it represents.
问题是，特朗普的做法是未经联合国、未援引任何更广泛的准则或国际法、未利用美国传统盟友、甚至没有咨询国会就采取了行动。
The challenge is the way that Trump has done it, you know, without going to the UN, without using any kind of invocation of broader pinprinciples, international law, without using any of America's traditional allies, without even consulting Congress.
当然，特朗普希望如此，因为他讨厌任何限制他的东西。
It it you know, which, of course, Trump wants because Trump hates anything that constrains him.
任何需要依赖国际原子能机构核查人员、联合国安理会决议，或与英国、法国协商的做法，在特朗普看来，都是对他权力的制约。
Anything that involves relying on, you know, the IEA inspectors or a UN Security Council resolution or consulting with the British and the the French, all that for Trump, these are constraints on his power.
这些做法本可以为这一行动赋予更大的合法性。
Those would have given a lot greater legitimacy to this.
这会营造出一种基于规则的氛围，让人觉得伊朗才是那个违背规则的国家。
This that would have created more of a kind of rule based sense of, like, Iran is the one that's outside of the rules.
是他们一直在违反各种规定。
They are the ones violating things.
目前，我们是以一种相当随意的方式完成此事，脱离了大多数被广泛接受的规则和程序。
Right now, we have done this in a fairly ad hoc way that is outside of, you know, most accepted rules and such.
我真希望当初能轻易地那样做，因为伊朗确实是一个流氓政权。
And I wish that, you know, it would have been easily easy to do that because Iran is a is a rogue regime.
它一直以违反各种国际准则和法律的方式行事，而要证明这一点本不难。
It has been acting in in ways that are violations of all kinds of international norms and and laws, and it wouldn't have been difficult to do that.
但我认为，唐纳德·特朗普的外交政策中有一个核心的杰克逊主义元素，那就是一切都由我独自决定。
But I think that there's a core kind of Jacksonian element to Donald Trump's foreign policy, which is about I get to decide everything on my own.
我们可以单方面采取行动。
I we get to act unilaterally.
我们永远不会被任何人所约束。
We're never gonna be constrained by anybody else.
我们来谈谈盟友吧，因为我从没想过会看到澳大利亚和加拿大表态，我称之为并非全力支持，但至少是支持。
Let's talk about allies because I never thought I would see, well, Australia and Canada have weighed in with what I'd call not full throated support, but support.
但我真的震惊于斯塔默首相所表现出的支持，我认为那只是极其勉强、有条件且犹豫不决的支持。
I was really shocked though to see prime minister Starmer offer what I thought is just really reluctant, conditioned, hesitant support.
比如，我们会允许你们使用我们的空军基地，但要明确，这只用于防御目的。
Like, we'll let you use our air base, but be clear, it's only for defensive purposes.
谈谈我们在哪里获得了支持，又在哪里没有获得支持，这反映了特朗普政府以及美国当前在世界上的地位。
Talk about where we have received and where we have not received support and what it says about the Trump administration and America's place in the world right now.
首先，我们来谈谈建立合法性这个问题。
So first, let's let's talk about this issue of, you know, building legitimacy.
我认为，那些非常关注这一点的欧洲国家，也就是关心这是否维护了以规则为基础的国际体系的国家，
I think the countries in Europe, which care a lot about that, which care a lot about, you know, does this seem to uphold a rules based international system?
这是否符合某种我们能够理解并支持的更广泛原则？
Is this within some kind of broader principles that we can understand and support?
它们是最犹豫不决的国家，
They're the ones who have been the most, you know, who've had the greatest degree of reluctance.
正如你准确描述的那样，吉斯特罗默们，那种痛苦、挣扎、勉强的支持，
And as you put it exactly right, Gierstromers, you know, tortured, pained, quasi support.
请记住，这些国家绝大多数——除了法国——都支持了伊拉克战争，因为布什当时去了联合国，
And remember, all these countries, for the most part, with the exception of the French, supported the Iraq war because Bush did go to the UN.
他获得了决议，
He did get resolutions.
他去了国会，
He did go to congress.
他还从更宏观的角度来阐述这个问题。
He did frame it in larger terms.
他组建了一个由40个国家组成的联盟，共同前往伊拉克。
He did assemble a coalition of 40 countries that went to that went to Iraq.
人们有时会误以为这是美国单方面的行动。
People sometimes think of remember it as unilateral American action.
其实并不是。
It wasn't.
所以，这就是那个群体。
The the the so that's that group.
在全球南方国家中，一个非常有趣的现象是，有一大批国家本能地谴责这一行动，认为这是强权即公理，是美国违背国际法的单边行为。
What's very interesting to watch among the global south is you have a whole bunch of countries that have condemned it, you know, instinctively because it's might makes right, it's The United States acting unilaterally in violation of international law and such.
但还有一大批国家并没有这样做。
But then there's a whole bunch of countries that have not quite done that.
例如，印度就非常有意思。
For example, very interestingly, India.
印度没有这样做，因为它们与海湾国家有着非常密切的关系。
India has not done that because there's very close relations with the Gulf States.
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尤其是在这位总理领导下，印度与以色列保持着非常良好的关系。
It has a very good relationship, particularly under this prime minister, with Israel.
从某种意义上说，印度作为新兴经济强国，正着眼于自身的经济利益，希望与以色列建立紧密关系以获取技术支持。
And in a sense, India is looking to its economic equities as an emerging economic powerhouse and saying, we want close relations with Israel for technological reasons.
我们希望与海湾国家保持紧密关系，因为我们需要石油，也需要资本，希望获得资本准入。
We want close relations with Gulf states because we need the oil, and we need we wanna have the capital, access to the capital.
因此，你所看到的印度现象非常有趣：印度谴责了伊朗对针对其境内袭击的回应，但基本上试图置身事外——至少在我最后一次看到的情况中，它既未庆祝也未谴责美国和以色列对伊朗的袭击。
And so what you're not you know, what you're seeing in in India is a very interesting phenomenon where India has denounced Iran's response to the attacks on Iran, but has essentially tried to stay out of the you know, it has neither neither celebrated nor condemned the the American Israeli attacks on on Iran, at least the last I saw.
我认为，这反映了一种非常有趣的现象，即一些新兴强国正在践行现实政治，它们在问自己：我们的利益究竟在哪里？
And that, I think, it reflects a very interesting, you know, kind of rise of realpolitik amongst some of these emerging powers that are saying to themselves, you know, what is our where are our equities here?
它们认为，未来的国家是海湾国家和以色列。
And what they're saying is, you know, the countries of the future are the Gulf States, Israel.
伊朗是一个属于过去的国家。
Iran is a country of the past.
让我们把话题拉回国内吧。
Let's bring it back or let's come home domestically.
在我看来，这让民主党措手不及。
It strikes me that this has caught Democrats flat footed.
尽管他们表达了我认为确实合理的关切——反对未经国会协商就采取行动的做法，但我的意思是，现在国会感觉更像是特朗普政府时期的橡皮图章。
And while they voiced what I think is really legitimate concerning opposition to the fact that congress wasn't consulted on this I mean, at this point, the congress feels more like the doomma under the Trump administration.
但与此同时，我个人认为，特朗普和卢比奥目前展现出了领导者的风范。
But at the same time, I I, you know, I personally think Trump and Rubio come across as as leaders right now.
我认为，如果一切顺利，这可能会成为本世纪地缘政治上的重大突破。
I think that this could potentially be arguably, if things go right, the kind of geopolitical unlock of the century.
民主党人必须在表态时走钢丝，既要表示认可，
And Democrats have to walk a fine line between saying, okay.
又要坚持政府各部门权力平等，而美国民众——显然两党中都有很多人，民主党方面比共和党方面更甚——都不希望这场战争，尤其不希望派遣地面部队。
We're supposed to have coequal branches of government and the American people pretty much across both parties, obviously, much more so on the Democratic side than the Republican side, do not want this war and especially do not want boots on the ground.
但请谈谈这对美国政治产生了怎样的影响，如果可能的话，甚至可以展望一下2026和2028年的背景。
But talk a little bit about the how this has affected politics in The US, and if you can, just even in the context looking forward to '26 and '28.
感觉现在一切都变得有点混乱，我们不知道最终会如何收场。
It feels like everything's been kinda thrown up in the air right now, and we don't know where it's gonna land.
是的
Yeah.
我同意这一点。
I agree with that.
事情进展得太快了，很难预测，很大程度上取决于事态如何发展。
It's moving very fast, so it'd be hard and and a lot depends on, you know, where things go.
是的
Yeah.
我认为民主党应该对美国总统以近乎专制的方式行事这一做法提出有原则的反对。
I think what the Democrats should do is have a principled opposition to the idea that the president of The United States can act in an almost authoritarian fashion.
我的意思是，你看。
I mean, look at it.
现在，他下令击沉加勒比海的船只。
Right now, he is you know, he's ordered boats to be shot out of the Caribbean.
他下令对委内瑞拉发动实质性的入侵，并抓捕该国国家元首。
He's ordered essentially an invasion of Venezuela and the capture of the of the of the head of state.
他已下令对伊朗发动了两次攻击，而国会却完全没有参与其中。
He's ordered this attack on two attacks now on Iran, none of which have has there been any congressional involvement.
请记住，宪法赋予国会宣战的权力。
And remember, you know, the constitution vests with congress the power to to declare war.
所以，我认为他们应该对这种行为表现出强烈的反对态度。
So, you know, they they they should have, I think, you know, a a strong sense of opposition to that.
他们还应该对不以更广泛的国际法、联合国原则等为依据的做法表示强烈反对。
They should have a strong sense of opposition to not doing it with some sense of the broader principles of, you know, international law in the UN and things like that.
但他们必须立场明确。
But they should be clear.
伊朗是美国的敌人。
Iran is an enemy of The United States.
它曾对美国造成过严重的伤害。
It has done very bad things to to The United States.
他们曾是资助武装民兵的主要支持者，这些民兵在伊拉克杀害了数十名美国人。
They were one of the principal sponsors of the militias that killed Americans in Iraq by the dozens.
而且，你知道，如果能削弱伊朗的实力，限制其影响力，那将是一件非常好的事。
And that, you know, it would be a very good thing if Iran's wings were clipped, if its power was degraded.
而且，如果伊朗政权能够转变为一个更加多元化、民主化、更具代表性并能反映伊朗人民意愿的政府，那将是非常好的事情。
And it would be a very good thing if the Iranian regime had to was transformed into something more pluralistic, democratic, you know, and and representative and reflective of the will of the Iranian people.
我认为这不是一个很难向民众解释的立场。
I don't think that's such a hard position to explain to people.
我觉得大多数人应该都能理解，就是说，你知道，你可以承认自己将会有一个对手。
I think most people would be able to understand it that, like, you know, you you you you can do you that you're gonna have a you're gonna have an adversary.
你可以认同对手是邪恶的，但同时你也认为总统在行使权力时不应表现得像个独裁者。
You can you can agree that the the adversary is bad, but you also don't think the president should be a dictator in the way he wields power.
我们稍作休息后马上回来。
We'll be right back after a quick break.
唐纳德·特朗普国情咨文中外交政策部分的主要要点是什么？
What are the main takeaways of the foreign policy section from Donald Trump's State of the Union address?
我确实认为他们已决定在国内议题上加大力度，因为我们正临近中期选举。
I do think they've made a decision to elevate domestic issues as we head towards the midterms.
我们看看这种说法是否能站得住脚，因为他总是被拉回到外交政策议题上。
We'll see if that sticks because he keeps getting drawn back to the foreign policy issues.
我是约翰·费纳。
I'm John Feiner.
我是杰克·苏利文，我们是《长远博弈》这档每周国家安全播客的主持人。
And I'm Jake Sullivan, and we're the hosts of The Long Game, a weekly national security podcast.
本周，我们将对特朗普总统的国情咨文、伊朗局势以及墨西哥贩毒集团爆发的暴力事件做出反应。
This week, we'll react to president Trump's state of the union address, the situation with Iran, and the eruption of violence involving cartels in Mexico.
这一集现已发布。
The episode's out now.
在您收听播客的平台搜索并关注《长远博弈》。
Search for and follow the long game wherever you get your podcasts.
所以大家都知道我们的政治是分裂的。
So everyone knows our politics are divided.
存在着左右之分，以及基于年龄、性别或种族的分歧。
There's left versus right and dividing lines on age, gender, or race.
但也许我们政治上最大的分歧根本不是关于身份认同。
But maybe our biggest divide in our politics isn't about identity at all.
而是体制内人士与体制外人士之间的对立。
It's insiders versus outsiders.
至少，国会议员罗·康纳会这么认为。
At least, that's what congressman Roe Conner would say.
真正的问题在于美国存在两种司法体系。
The real issue is two tiers of justice in America.
真正的问题在于有权有势的人利用他们的地位，凌驾于法律之上，逃避调查甚至起诉。
The real issue is people with power and wealth using it, to be above the law and escape even investigation or prosecution.
最近几个月，随着 Epstein 文件和人工智能等问题的出现，精英阶层与普通大众之间的对立变得更加明显。
And it's only gotten more noticeable in recent months as issues like the Epstein files and artificial intelligence have seemed to pit the elites against everybody else.
加利福尼亚州国会议员罗·康纳直面 Epstein 一派。
California congressman Ro Khanna takes on the Epstein class.
《今日解读》每天工作日都在你的信息流中更新，现在周六也有更新了。
Today Explained in your feed every weekday and now on Saturdays too.
我们继续为您带来法里德·扎卡里亚的更多内容。
We're back with more from Fareed Zakaria.
我曾经认为我们入侵伊拉克是本世纪最严重的地缘政治失误，但现在我开始觉得——当然这里有些偏见，所以我得自我纠正——真正的冠军是10月7日。
I used to think that our entry into Iraq was the geopolitical first ballot hall of fame screw up of the century, and now I'm beginning to think that, and there's some bias here, so I'm to push back, that the the new winner is October 7.
如果你告诉辛纳、萨达特、霍梅尼，他们三年内都会去世，他们的制度会被严重削弱，要知道，我们过去曾称中东为超级大国。
That if you had told Sinmar, Sadat, Khomeini that they you're all gonna be dead in three years, and your institutions are gonna be so dramatically weakened that I mean, we used to call around the superpower of the Middle East.
每个人都对真主党怕得要死，它本应是沉睡的军事巨人。
Everyone was scared to death of Hezbollah, supposedly the sleeping military giant.
哈马斯一直是个威胁。
Hamas was always a threat.
所有这些事情，你知道，你知道，阿萨德正在莫斯科打电子游戏。
All of these things, you know, you know, Assad is playing video games in Moscow.
其他我们熟知的人都已去世，这些组织要么被消灭，要么被严重削弱。
Everyone else that we know their names is dead, and these organizations are either eliminated or incredibly neutered.
10月7日会不会成为本世纪其支持者所犯下的最重大的地缘政治灾难？
Will October 7 go down as arguably the biggest geopolitical disaster of its sponsors of the last of this century?
我认为这可能是任何组织所犯过的最大误判之一。
I think it's probably one of the biggest miscalculations that any group has made.
我的意思是，当人们说这一切都是哈马斯所希望的，是为了引起人们对巴勒斯坦事业的关注时，我觉得这完全是胡说八道。
I mean, Hamas when people say this was all Hamas wanted this because we draw attention to the Palestinian cause, I think this is nonsense.
我的意思是，这导致哈马斯作为一支武装力量、甚至作为一个政治实体，基本上被彻底消灭了。
I mean, this resulted in the essential elimination of Hamas as a as a fighting force and even as a political entity.
我的意思是，它现在只是一个微弱的组织残影，完全丧失了能力。
I mean, it is now a, you know, a faint shadow of an organization with absolutely no capacity.
真主党基本上已被解除武装。
Hezbollah has been largely defanged.
叙利亚政权的崩溃，在很大程度上正是由于这一切。
The Syrian regime collapsed in no in no small part because of all this.
如今，伊朗也被削弱了。
And now Iran has been neutered.
你看。
Look.
我写过一段时间，一直说以色列是中东的超级大国。
I've I've been writing for a while and saying Israel is the superpower of the Middle East.
我已经这么说了一段时间了。
I've been saying it for a while.
10月7日事件解除了对以色列的限制。
What October 7 did was it unlocked the restraints on Israel.
以色列决定不再愿意继续被动应对，一点一点地反击，而是要全面出击。
Israel decided that it no longer was willing to, you know, to stay on the back foot and react on a point by point, pinprick by pinprick basis, that it was gonna go all out.
内塔尼亚胡和贝内特可能正确地解读了以色列公众的情绪，认为这是他可以最大限度推进政策的时机，而且不会出事。
That it felt, you know, Bibi and Netanyahu felt probably correctly reading the Israeli public that this was the moment he could lean as far forward as he wanted, and he would fine.
地缘政治现实也发生了变化，即海湾国家不再与以色列处于生死对立状态。
And there was a changed geopolitical reality, which was that the Gulf States were no longer in, you know, existential opposition to Israel.
事实上，正如你所说，我们正与以色列形成一种针对伊朗的默契联盟。
In fact, as you say, we're kind of in a tacit alliance with Israel against Iran.
所有这些因素汇聚在了一起。
And so all those things come together.
10月7日事件解开了束缚，以色列放手一搏，而海湾阿拉伯国家则在暗中欢呼。
October 7 allows the unlock, and Israel goes for it and the Gulf Arabs silently cheer on.
这就是整个故事的核心。
That's the big story.
正如我所说，以色列军队已成为中东地区的超级大国。
And the Israeli military has become, as I said, the superpower of the Middle East.
你知道吗，它在这里展现的能力非常惊人。
Can you know, its capacities here have been extraordinary.
话说回来，同样非同寻常的是，情报部门居然知道这些人的藏身之处。
What's also extraordinary, by the way, is the intelligence to know where these people are.
我认为这确实是一个未被充分讲述的故事，真的非常了不起。
And I think that is a really untold story that that is really extraordinary.
伊朗已经在太多不同方面被渗透了。
Iran has been penetrated in so many different ways.
它的核机构、军事机构，甚至某些部分都未能幸免。
Its nuclear establishment, its military establishment, even some parts.
所以，这甚至包括其宗教阶层的一些部分。
So this is the least, even some parts of its clerical establishment.
谈谈这对俄罗斯和中国的影响。
Talk about how this impacts Russia and China.
对于俄罗斯人来说，我认为最重要的影响是他们原本存在军事合作关系，但不确定这是否会产生重大影响。
For the the Russians, I think the most important impact is there was an ongoing military relationship, and one wonders whether whether it it has much of an impact there.
短期来看，这对俄罗斯当然是好事，因为油价上涨，而俄罗斯正需要这一点。
The short term effect, of course, is good for the Russians because the price of oil goes up, and Russia needs needs that.
对于中国人来说，我认为情况更复杂一些。
For the for the Chinese, you know, I think it's more complicated.
正如你所指出的，中国一直在从伊朗购买石油，并且由于伊朗的孤立状态，他们获得了很好的价格。
The Chinese were getting Iranian oil as you pointed out, and they were they were getting a good deal because of Iran's isolation.
他们能够以大幅折扣获得这些石油。
They were able to get it highly discounted.
但我认为，中国的核心利益与俄罗斯的核心利益之间存在根本性差异。
But there is a fundamental difference between what I think are the core interests of China and the core interests of Russia.
这是一个更广泛的问题。
And this this is sort of a broader issue.
它甚至关系到我们与俄罗斯和中国的关系。
It even relates to our relations with Russia and China.
俄罗斯是一个流氓国家。
Russia is a rogue state.
它喜欢不稳定。
It likes instability.
它想摧毁以规则为基础的国际秩序。
It wants to destroy the rules based international order.
为什么？
Why?
因为从根本上说，它反对这一秩序。
Because fundamentally, it is in opposition to that order.
它认为这一秩序主要是在苏联解体的背景下扩张和建立起来的。
It believes that that order has been largely expanded and created on the back of the collapse of the Soviet Union.
而且它是一个大宗商品和石油超级大国，这意味着动荡对它有利。
And it is a commodities and oil superpower, which means instability is good for it.
对吧？
Right?
动荡意味着石油价格上涨，汽油价格上涨，其他大宗商品的价格也常常上涨，这对它来说全是好事。
Instability means the price of oil goes up, the price of gas goes up, often the price of other commodities go up, and that's all good for it.
中国则非常不同。
China is very different.
中国是一个需要整合的全球市场、需要贸易、需要资本和商品自由流动的国家。
China is a country that needs integrated global markets, that needs trade, that needs a free flow of capital, free flow of goods.
因此，中国应该希望伊朗是你所描述的那种国家——一个可以与之做生意的贸易大国。
So China should want an Iran that is the kind you were describing, a great trading nation with whom you could they could do business.
也许它们对西方的态度不像现在这么敌对，但会保持中立，并可能对中国持友好态度。
And maybe they're, you know, not as hostile to the West as they are now, but they would be neutral, and they might, you know, look favorably on the Chinese.
你可以想象，一个与现在截然不同的伊朗和中国，仅基于经济利益就能结成联盟。
You could imagine an alliance between a very different Iran and China just based on their economic interests.
但俄罗斯是一个渴望混乱的流氓政权。
But Russia is a rogue regime that wants instability.
我认为这是我们应当努力利用的一个重大地缘政治现实，即中国并不从一个混乱的世界中获益。
I think this is one of the big, you know, larger geopolitical realities we should be trying to exploit, which is that China does not benefit from a world in chaos.
我们应该更细致、更坚定地向他们阐明这一点。
And we should be trying to make that case to them much more carefully and strongly.
而俄罗斯则恰恰相反。
Russia does.
归根结底，俄罗斯是一个很难开展业务的国家，因为它的根本利益与美国所追求的方向背道而驰。
And Russia is, at the end of the day, a very tough country to do business with because they have this fundamental interest, which is opposed to the way America wants.
他们不希望欧洲稳定。
They don't want a stable Europe.
他们不希望与欧洲建立繁荣的贸易关系，因为那样会使他们变得越来越小、越来越不重要。
They don't want, you know, trading prosperous relations with Europe because that means they become smaller and smaller and less and less important.
俄罗斯的力量源于其制造混乱的能力，作为流氓国家，利用其核威慑恐吓其他国家，运用混合战争手段破坏民主。
Russia's strength derives from its ability to cause chaos, to be a rogue state, to use its nuclear umbrella to intimidate countries, to use its hybrid warfare, to undermine democracies.
你知道，中国是不同的。
You know, China is different.
中国之所以变得强大，是因为融入了全球经济体，这是巨大的不同。
China is growing strong because of an integrated global economy, and that's a big difference.
我们应该努力在两国之间制造裂痕。
And we should try and drive a wedge between those two countries.
我注意到，如果我们还在谈论伊朗，还在向伊朗派遣飞行任务，仍然有这类视频画面，那么在任何战争中，都会有一个未知因素。
It strikes me that if we're still talking about Iran and we're still flying sorties over to Iran and there's still this kind of video footage and there's in any war, there's gonna be an x factor.
美国的军人将会阵亡。
American servicemen and women are gonna are gonna be killed.
我们的盟友也会遭受打击。
Our allies are gonna take hits.
如果这种情况一直持续到十月，我认为这对特朗普政府以及寻求连任或参选的共和党人来说恐怕不利。
If this is still going on in October, it strikes me that it's probably bad for the Trump administration and Republicans running for reelection or election.
第一，你同意这一点吗？
One, do you agree with that?
第二，如果你要为特朗普政府提供建议，关于在那之前如何制定理想的沟通策略和退出方案，你认为应该怎么做，法里德？
And two, if you were advising the Trump administration around kind of an ideal messaging and strategy for an off ramp before then, what do you think alright, Farid.
明确你们的目标，并找到最理想的退出路径，既要承认美国不支持地面部队介入，也要意识到，如果这场冲突再持续三个月甚至六个月以上，‘永久战争’这个词就会出现在每一位民主党候选人的竞选广告中。
Align what you think the objectives are and the probably the most the optimal off ramp that recognizes that America does not support boots on the ground, and that if this goes on much longer than, say, three or six months, the term forever war is gonna be in every campaign ad of every Democrat come November.
是的。
Yeah.
首先，我同意你的观点。
So first, I agree with you.
我想说的是。
I think look.
让我们记住。
Let's remember.
总体而言，外交政策在美国选举中通常并不起太大作用。
Foreign policy, by and large, does not usually play much of a role in American elections.
想想老布什吧，他是冷战的胜利者，见证了苏联的解体和柏林墙的倒塌，又以近乎完美的军事表现赢得了海湾战争，当时支持率高达91%，却还是输给了比尔·克林顿。
Remember Bush, the the you know, Bush senior, the victor of the Cold War, presided over the collapse of the Soviet Union, the the the collapse of the Berlin Wall, then wins the Gulf War on, you know, almost technically perfect terms, had a 91% approval rating, and then lost the election to Bill Clinton.
所以，你知道，外交事务通常没有我们想象的那么大的影响。
So, you know, foreign foreign affairs often does not have as big an impact as we would think it it would.
但我同意你的看法。
But I agree with you.
如果感觉这件事持续拖延、毫无头绪，而且他们始终找不到脱身之法，那就会产生非常重要的影响——这是第一次，你可能会看到特朗普的支持者群体出现分裂。
If it feels like this is going on and meandering and, you know, they haven't been able to find a way to to get out, What it does is very important, which is it for the first time, you could imagine it dividing Trump's base.
因为特朗普的支持者中有很多人认为，美国不应该花时间去操心这些国外的国家。
Because Trump's base does involve a lot of people who think that The United States should not be spending time worrying about any of these countries out there.
如果你听塔克·卡尔森、安·科格尔这些人说的话，而且这样的人越来越多，这种声音是真实存在的。
And if you listen to the Tucker Carlsons of the world and the Ann Colgers of the world, and there are more and more of them, that voice is is real.
所以，我认为这对共和党来说是主要的危险，而民主党则会完全按照你所描述的那样去做。
So that's, I think, the principal danger for for the Republicans, and the Democrats will do exactly what what you described.
我想说的是。
I think what look.
如果我是他们，我会开始设定一系列目标，比如伊朗不能威胁其邻国、制造分裂、资助民兵组织，并列出那些已被摧毁的设施，然后说：我们认为，伊朗的进攻性军事能力已减少了70%，其军事工业综合体也已摧毁了50%，具体列出被摧毁的工厂和设施，然后宣布：我们已认为此次行动取得了成功。
What I would do if I were them is start setting out a series of goals about Iran not being able to threaten its neighbors, sow discord, fund militias, and, you know, itemize the things that have been destroyed and saying, we have now achieved, we believe, you know, a 70% reduction in Iran's offensive military capacity and a 50%, you know, destruction of its military industrial complex, list the factory, you know, the things that have been destroyed, and say, we, you know, we we we now regard this operation as as successful.
我会这么做。
I would do I would do that.
我会看看。
I would look.
自二战以来，美国发动的每一场战争最初都充满热情。
The United States has started every war The United States has started since World War two started with great enthusiasm.
除了第一次海湾战争，之后的战争都很难确定如何结束，也就是说，什么时候才能宣布胜利并回家。
And then you start off with the exception of the first Gulf War, it has been very hard to figure out how to how to end them, you know, what is the point at which you can declare victory and go home.
我认为，越早做到这一点，就越好。
And the lesson, I think, is the the soon the sooner you can do it, the better.
你知道吗？
You know?
设定一些可以明确宣称已经达成的标志。
Have some have some identifiable markers that you can say you achieved.
指出来。
Point to them.
它们是真实的。
They are real.
然后离开。
And get out.
你知道，我忍不住感到一种非理性的乐观，而且这很多都是个案。
You know, I can't help but feel irrationally optimistic here, and a lot of this is anecdotal.
我去了加州大学洛杉矶分校，经常闲逛，结识了很多伊朗人。
I went to UCLA, and I just hung out a lot and got to know a lot of Iranians.
我注意到，与我遇到的其他移民相比，包括加拿大人、印度人，我觉得伊朗人比许多我认识的美国人更像美国人。
And it struck me that more than any immigrants I had met, including Canadians, people from India, I felt like Iranians were more American than many Americans I know.
对资本主义、教育、科学的热爱，还有一种很棒的商人文化。
A love of capitalism, education, science, a super sort of merchant culture, like, in a good way.
我只是觉得，他们仿佛自然而然地融入了美国文化。
I just felt these they just they they felt like they just slipstreamed into American culture.
我不知道你有没有这种感觉？
And I wonder if you know?
据我了解，实际上在伊朗，有一代年轻人，他们对神权政治的认同更少，对西方的敌意更低，不接受‘打倒美国、打倒以色列’这种组织原则。
And my understanding is that the that actually in Iran, there's actually a huge population of next generation that's less theocratic, less anti West, doesn't buy into this organizing principle of end of death to America, death to Israel.
在如此丰富的教育资源、无与伦比的文化底蕴之下，而这种敌意与混乱可能成为中东最后的残余，
With that type of resources sitting on sitting beneath education, unbelievable culture, and this potentially being the kind of the last remnant of hostility and chaos in The Middle East.
这让人感觉欧洲作为贸易伙伴将获得巨大的收益。
It feels like Europe could be an enormous winner as a trading partner.
无论我怎么努力去想，战争总存在未知因素，但我总觉得，我们可能正站在一个对中东乃至全世界都极其美好的转折点上。
It's just as hard as I try, and there's always an x factor with war, I feel like this could be we could be on the precipice of something something really wonderful for for The Middle East and for the world.
你来反驳我吧。
Prove me wrong.
首先，伊朗侨民群体，你说得完全正确，非常了不起。
Well, first of all, the the Iranian Daspora, you're a 100% right, is amazing.
我的意思是，他们不仅具备你提到的所有特质，还极其崇尚资本主义，而且他们热爱美国。
I mean, they're they are not only all the things you said, they are amazingly capitalistic, and, you know, they love America.
他们热爱民主。
They love democracy.
即使那些身在欧洲的人，也热爱西方民主。
Even the ones that are in Europe, they love Western democracy.
他们非常文明。
They're very civilized.
他们不仅受教育程度高，而且极具文化素养。
They have, you know, like, high levels, not just of education, but they're very cultural.
他们具有很强的文化意识。
They're very culturally aware.
我认为他们也非常希望自己的国家再次成为世界舞台上重要的角色。
I think they're also they have a real desire for their country to once again be the, you know, the kind of the kind of player it was in the world.
请记住，伊朗可能是世界上历史最悠久的国家之一，如果问哪个国家五千年前就存在，地理范围大致相同，城市也差不多，那就是伊朗。
Remember, Iran is probably one of the oldest countries in the world with continuous if you ask yourself what country in the world was around five thousand years ago, roughly the same geography, roughly the same, you know, cities and things.
伊朗和埃及可能是你所能想到的两个最古老的地方。
Iran and Egypt are probably the, you know, the two oldest places you can think of.
因此，伊朗侨民完全代表了这种非凡的传统。
And so there's there's there's this extraordinary tradition that the Iranian diaspora does absolutely represent.
每当这些话题出现时，我总是被伊朗人发给我的大量邮件和短信所触动，他们参与讨论的热情令人惊叹。
And, I mean, I'm always struck by a lot of the the emails and texts I get out from Iranians anytime some of this issue comes up, and the passion that with which they engage is is amazing.
正如我对你所说的，那就是目标。
As I said to you, that's the goal.
我的问题是，我们该如何实现它？
My question is how do we get there?
而要实现这一点，这个政权必须垮台。
And to get there, this regime has to collapse.
我只是觉得，这正是困难所在。
And I just you know, that's the difficulty.
你怎么能让一个高度专制、压迫性强、拥有大量武器、并且已经掌权四十七年的政权轻易垮台？
How do you get a, you know, highly authoritarian, repressive regime with a lot of guns and forty seven years to dig itself into power to collapse easily?
不容易，但突然之间就垮了。
Not easily, but but, you know, all of a sudden.
但我至今还没看到这样的迹象。
And I I haven't seen the signs of that yet.
你知道，当我说这话时，我知道很多伊朗侨民并不喜欢听。
That's that's you know, I know when I say that, I know that a lot of people in the Iranian diaspora don't like it.
但我只是试图保持诚实，并如实地看待这个世界，而不是按照我希望的样子。
But what I'm just trying to do is to be honest and look at the world as it is, not the way I would like it to be.
我很希望看到一个世俗化的伊朗，你知道，能够在世界上扮演你所描述的那种角色。
I would love to see a secular Iran that, you know, was was playing the kind of role that you're describing in the world.
我所说的只是，要实现这个目标，这个伊斯兰政权必须垮台或被推翻。
All I'm saying is to get there, this Islamic regime needs to collapse or be toppled.
扎卡里亚是一名记者、作家和政治评论员。
Zakaria is a journalist, author, and political commentator.
弗里德，我说的是真心话。
Fried, I I meant what I said.
我不能和你争论，你大概是现在全球最受欢迎的评论员了。
I can't you argue over there, the probably the most in demand commentator in the world right now.
非常感谢你的时间。
Very much appreciate your time.
总是这么愉快。
Always such a pleasure.
谢谢你，斯科特。
Thank you, Scott.
本集由詹妮弗·桑切斯和劳拉·詹纳制作。
This episode was produced by Jennifer Sanchez and Laura Jenner.
卡米·里克是我们社交媒体制作人。
Kami Riek is our social producer.
比安卡·贝萨里奥·拉米雷斯是我们视频编辑。
Bianca Bersario Ramirez is our video editor.
德鲁·伯罗斯是我们技术总监。
And Drew Burrows is our technical director.
感谢您收听Prop G Media的Prop G播客。
Thank you for listening to the Prop G Pod from Prop G Media.
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