多少钱才算够？此外，为什么人工智能不会取代财务顾问——与杰克·雷恩斯对话

本节目由MongoDB赞助支持。

Support for the show comes from MongoDB.

AI辅助和智能编码正在让你以前所未有的速度开发应用。

AI assisted and agentic coding is helping you build faster than ever.

但如果数据层成了瓶颈，那再快又有什么用呢？

But if your data layer is a bottleneck, what's the point?

与其跟死板的模式或数据格式转换较劲，MongoDB的原生数据模型直接契合LLM早已熟悉的语言。

Instead of wrestling with rigid schemas or translating data formats, MongoDB's native data model mirrors the language LLMs already speak.

它能跟上AI的速度，支持ACID事务，还能扩展到处理财富500强企业的海量负载。

It ships at the speed of AI, is ACID compliant, and scales to handle massive Fortune 500 workloads.

去问问任何一位开发者吧。

Ask any developer.

这真是个出色的数据库。

It's a great database.

马上开始吧，访问 imagodb.com/ai。

Start building imagodb.com/ai.

乌克兰军方这次人事变动背后有什么原因？

What's behind Ukraine's military shakeup?

乌克兰军队在如何运用和整合战场上的自主系统方面，已经超越了美国军队，甚至全球所有其他军队的作战理念，我们真该向他们学习。

The Ukrainians have now surpassed The United States Military and basically every other military on the planet in terms of doctrine for how to fight and integrate these autonomous systems on the battlefield, and we should be learning from them.

我是约翰·费纳。

I'm John Feiner.

我是杰克·沙利文，我们是《长远博弈》这档每周国家安全播客的主持人。

And I'm Jake Sullivan, and we're the hosts of the long game, a weekly national security podcast.

这期节目，我们深入分析了乌克兰国防部长被解职的事件，他可是乌军无人机战略的总设计师。

This week, we're breaking down the dismissal of Ukraine's defense minister, the architect of their drone strategy.

本期节目已经上线了。

The episode's out now.

在你常用的播客平台搜索并关注《长远博弈》。

Search for and follow the long game wherever you get podcasts.

欢迎收听《Prop G：个人理财》，本期是特别节目，我们邀请到了《Young Money》通讯的作者、《二十岁的财富与人生指南》一书的作者杰克·雷恩斯。

Welcome to Prop G on Personal Finance, a special episode where we're joined by Jack Raines, writer of the Young Money newsletter and author of Young Money, a field guide to wealth and purpose in your twenties.

我们会一起探讨，到底有没有所谓的‘足够财富’，年轻人在高房价城市该如何存钱买房，以及财富顾问会不会被人工智能取代。

Together, we'll discuss whether there's such a thing as enough wealth, how young people should save for a house in a high cost city, and whether wealth advisors survive AI.

杰克，欢迎你。

Jack, welcome.

很高兴能来。

Happy to be here.

谢谢你的邀请，斯科特。

Thanks for having me, Scott.

谢谢你今天过来。

Thanks for being here.

大家都特别期待能请到一位年轻又懂行的理财专家。

Everyone was really excited to have a young, knowledgeable financial person on.

好。

Alright.

咱们直接切入正题吧。

Let's bust right into it.

第一个问题。

Question one.

我们第一个问题来自Instagram上的娜塔妮雅·克兰福德。

Our first question comes from Natanya Cranford on Instagram.

有没有所谓的足够财富？

Is there such a thing as enough wealth?

我仍然坐经济舱，但我能飞去任何想去的地方。

I still fly economy, but I can fly anywhere I want.

杰克，有没有所谓的足够财富？

Jack, is there such a thing as enough wealth?

我觉得答案是有的。

So, I mean, I I think the answer is yes.

确实有。

There is.

问题是，人总是追求地位，一旦达到你以为的足够，总会冒出下一个目标。

The issue is humans are kind of status chasing monkeys where, like, once you get to what you thought was enough, there's always another level.

我是从佐治亚州南部来的，你知道吧？

So, like, it's it's a question of, like, I'm from I'm from South Georgia, right?

我小时候对‘足够财富’的理解，和过去四年在纽约或旧金山的生活经历完全不一样。

So my version of enough wealth growing up is a lot different than having lived in New York or San Francisco for the last four years.

所以我的回答是，确实有这么一个程度。

So I mean, my answer to that is like, yes, there is.

关键在于，你能不能抵挡住那些比你高一级的人带来的压力？

The question is like, can you resist the, like, chasing people who are one level ahead of you?

财富有没有上限？

Because is there an upper limit to wealth?

没有。

No.

那有没有足够多的财富？

Is there enough wealth?

有。

Yes.

这取决于你如何定义‘足够’的标准，你知道的。

Depending on like where you set your standards for what enough means, you know.

对有些人来说，几万、几十万、几百万，甚至上千万才算够，但更重要的是，你能不能不总盯着那些比你稍微强一点的人。

For some people it's like several 100,000, a few million, tens of millions, But it's much more can you resist just like chasing after other people that you view to be a little bit ahead of you.

是的。

Yeah.

我经常想这个问题。

I think about this a lot.

从实际角度看，如果你每年的开销乘以二十，大概就差不多财务自由了。

I mean, on a very practical level, if you take if you take your annual burn times 20, that's when you sort of financially are probably set.

对吧？

Right?

那时候你才能真正开始享受生活。

And can can start to enjoy life.

而且我觉得很多人在这方面都犯了个错。

And I I and also, I think a lot of people make a mistake.

我问过一些退休的人，关于他们生活开销的事，他们问我花了多少钱。

I I had some questions from some people who are retired about how much money I asked about their life.

我说，你们真该多花点钱。

I'm like, you should be spending more money.

只要不是干了什么特别蠢的事，你们根本不用担心。

You know, you're not unless you really do something stupid, you're fine.

我感觉你们根本不太出门旅行。

And you got my sense is you guys don't travel.

该花的钱就花吧。

You know, spend some money.

点瓶好酒没什么大不了的。

Order the good wine.

我经常在想这个问题。

And I think about this a lot.

我觉得，囤积财富就像一种在美国蔓延的病毒。

I think hoarding wealth is a virus that infects America.

我觉得，财富积累到一定程度后，就没必要再多了。

I just don't think there's any reason to have over a certain amount of wealth.

再多的钱，也未必能带来多少额外的快乐。

I don't think you're gonna get much happiness, any if any, incremental happiness.

但你也不会因为钱少就更不开心。

I don't think you'd be less happy.

说亿万富翁比百万富翁更不快乐，这其实是个误解。

I think this notion that billionaires are less happy than millionaires is also a myth.

你刚才说的那句话，具体是哪一句？

But what you said, what is it?

人天生容易互相比较，我们很少因为自己拥有的而感到满足。

Humans are mimetic, and that is we don't think about satisfaction from what we have.

我们总是拿自己跟别人比。

We compare ourselves to others.

我的钱比大多数人都多，但大概十年前我就不再刻意追求积累更多财富了。

And I have more money than most citizens, but I would like, and I stopped aggregating wealth or purposely trying to aggregate wealth after about ten years ago.

我现在要么花掉，要么捐出去，但偶尔还是会后悔当初没早点投身人工智能领域，没努力赚个十亿美金——毕竟我想资助NPR。

I either spend it or I give it away now, but I still occasionally regret not getting going more in on AI and trying to become a billionaire because I would like to fund NPR.

我希望能有更大的政治影响力，支持更多候选人。

I would like to have more political influence and candidates.

你总能找到各种理由。

You can always find reasons.

我依然感到不安，即使生活在一个资本主义社会，不管你多有钱，系统总会不断给你制造欲望，逼你继续工作、保持高效，对吧？

I still feel insecure and I would love to have live in a capitalist society, no matter how wealthy you are, they're always gonna create incentives to want more to keep you working, right, and keep you productive.

但我确实觉得，到了某个阶段，学会对自己说：至少我要把重心放在人际关系上，从这个永不停歇的轮子上下来，这是一门艺术。

But I do think there's an art to saying at some point I at minimum want to focus on my relationships and get off this hamster wheel.

但这并不容易。

And it's not easy.

顺便说一句，这其实是一种特权的体现——因为绝大多数人只是在拼命攒钱，好让子女上大学，别背上医疗债务。

And by the way that's a story of privilege because I think the vast majority of people are just trying to figure out a way to save enough to send their kids to college and not have medical debt.

但‘足够’这个词真的很有力量，它意味着你要主动去定义：什么时候才算够？如果我真的幸运地达到了那个‘足够’，又会怎样？

But, yeah, that that word enough is is so powerful, and it's it's consciously deciding yourself when is enough and what would happen if I were fortunate enough to get to enough.

关于这个，你还有什么想说的吗？

Any closing thoughts on this?

是的。

Yeah.

我说吧，我有两点想补充。

I mean, there's I I have two things to add.

你认识尼克·马吉利吗？

One, do you know Nick Maggiulli?

对。

Mhmm.

几年前，他在博客上提到过一个很有意思的数据：很多人担心退休后钱不够用，但实际上大多数美国人退休后花的钱，比他们每年领的还要少。

Anyway, he had in a blog post, like, four or five years ago, a really interesting stat talking about how, like, you know, most people are worried about not having enough money in retirement, but most Americans actually are spending less than, like, they're earning more each year than what they're actually spending down in retirement.

所以你提到囤积财富像是一种病，我觉得如果你已经攒了几百万，却根本花不完，那这其实是种浪费。

So to your point of like hoarding wealth being a virus, I think it's actually an inefficient use of money if you have like several millions saved up, and there's just no chance.

就算你打算给子女或孙辈留点钱，如果你七十、八十岁还在靠复利疯狂攒钱，根本花不完，那其实早该多花一些了。

Like, even accounting for what you wanna leave for your kids or grandkids, if you're rapidly accumulating more and more money just from compounding in your seventies and eighties that you can't spend down, you probably should have spent some sooner.

说到底，财富的意义在于总得有人把它花出去，不管是你自己、你的孩子，还是捐给慈善机构去花。

And the other the other point I have on that is like the whole point of wealth at the end of the day is somebody has to spend it on something, whether it's you, your kids, you give it away to like a philanthropic organization to spend.

明明已经足够了，却还总担心不够，这种匮乏心态只会让你错过本可以用来享受生活的开销。

And having like a scarcity mindset where you're constantly worried about not having enough even when you objectively have enough is just depriving yourself of things you could spend money on to enjoy.

不管是物质享受、人生体验，还是人际关系，你能用钱买到的快乐，其实会随时间不断变化。

Again, whether it's material things, experiences, relationships, and like the the things that you can spend that money on that you will enjoy are just gonna change a lot.

你25岁喜欢的东西，和35岁、45岁的时候，肯定不一样。

Like, the thing you'll enjoy at 25 is different from 35 or 45 or whatever.

我觉得最难的一点是，年轻时钱不多，却愿意花一点，因为你清楚，自己的财富还会持续增长。

So I actually think one of hardest things is like being willing to spend some money in your twenties when you probably don't have as much knowing that like you'll keep compounding over time.

对吧？

Right?

但真的很难。

But it's tough.

别人还在拼命赚钱，而你总觉得自己将来需要的会更多，可实际上，我们对未来的预期往往远远高出了真实需求。

It's like it's a very tough thing to spend money when everybody else still making money and thinking through like, our idea of what we're gonna need later is always so much higher than what it actually is, I think.

说得有道理。

Fair enough.

好，咱们接着看第二个问题。

Alright, let's let's head on to question number two.

这个问题也是来自Instagram。

It also comes from Instagram.

Jay Kim问：在生活成本很高的城市，年轻人该怎么存钱买房？

Jay dot Kim asks, how should young people go about saving for a house on a high cost of living city?

Jack？

Jack?

我觉得第一个问题其实是：你真的想买吗？

So I think the first question is, do you even want to?

现在很多人因为AI热潮搬到纽约，尤其是旧金山。我去年住在旧金山，一间像样的单间公寓租金大概已经涨到四千美元了。

Because there's a lot of people who will move to New York or especially San Francisco now with the AI boom, where like I lived in SF last year and the going rate for like a decent studio apartment is around probably $4,000 now.

这还是那种五百平方英尺的鸽子笼。

Like that's for a, you know, 500 square foot shoebox.

所以问题来了，就算你算得出来这笔账，但将来结婚生子，突然就得需要至少三居室的房子，真要在旧金山市区，价格可能得三百万美元起。

So the question is, okay, you can make the math work on that, but then you get married and you wanna have kids, and all of a sudden you probably need at least a three bedroom home, which is gonna cost like, if you're actually in San Francisco proper, probably $3,000,000.

我之前也在看纽约的三室两卫房源，就是为准备这个问题。

I was looking at some three bed, two baths in New York to like prep for this same thing.

在像样的地段，起码得三百万美元起步。

Call it $3,000,000 minimum in a decent neighborhood.

如果你真这么干了，那私立学校的费用怎么办？那又得花多少钱？

And then if you're doing that, okay, are you gonna pay for private schools, and what's that gonna cost?

你打算买车吗？

Are you gonna have a car?

停车费又得多少？

What's the parking gonna cost?

到最后你会发现，为了维持这种生活，每年得花掉一大笔钱。

Like, you you end up in this thing where you're gonna be spending so much money per year to keep up.

所以第一个该问的问题是：你真有必要在纽约或者旧金山买房吗？

Like, the first question to ask is, should you even buy a home in, like, New York or San Francisco?

还是说，你应该先住在那里赚钱，找到伴侣，攒钱租房？

Or should you live there to make money, meet your spouse, like, save cash and rent?

等你打算要孩子，或者开始考虑学校的时候，再搬到郊区，或者新泽西、长岛，随便你选个类似的地儿。

And then once you're at the point that you're having kids or thinking about school, you move to the suburbs, or you move to New Jersey, or Long Island, or pick your version of that.

是的。

Yeah.

说实话，你说得对。

Look, I think you're right.

我觉得很重要的一点是，别以为买房就永远不会亏钱。

I think it's important to do the math that this, you never lose money in real estate.

美国梦其实是房地产经纪人协会推动的，他们总能找到理由让你不断买房，好拿你5%到6%的佣金。

The American dream is brought to you by the National Association of Realtors who always find a reason for you to keep just buying and give them their five or 6% commission.

除非你真有大把闲钱，否则很多情况下买房根本不合算。

There are a lot of instances where it doesn't make any sense to unless you just have a lot of money Yep.

买房和租房之间，得好好算清楚。

To buy versus rent.

在纽约和旧金山，租房通常更划算。

New York and San Francisco almost always it makes more sense to rent.

租房其实有种特别的优雅——把钥匙往桌上一放，随时能搬走，保持经济上的灵活性。你最不想看到的，就是房贷压得你喘不过气，或者变成房奴，整天只想着还贷，连生活都顾不上了。

And there is a certain, you know, elegance to renting and slamming your keys down and being economically mobile because what you don't want is to end up underwater on your mortgage or to be house poor and just so focused on making your mortgage that you can't enjoy life.

我觉得迟早有一天，我会在这事上动摇。虽然从资产角度看，房产的回报跟大盘差不多，甚至可能还略低一点，但它确实是积累财富的好方式，因为很多人会乖乖还房贷，而不是把两三千块拿去存钱或买股票。

I do think at some point, I mean I'm torn on this because while as an asset class homes have done the same or even maybe slightly underperformed the broader market, it is a great way to build wealth because people have a tendency to make that mortgage payment as opposed to maybe spending 2 or $3,000 saving and buying stocks.

他们就是会习惯性地按时还贷。

They have a tendency to make that payment.

而且我觉得，心理上也有实实在在的好处，尤其是当你开始组建家庭、找伴侣、生孩子的时候，这些经历真的很有价值。

Also, I think there are some real psychic benefits, specifically moving towards a family or mating or having kids and procreating, which I think are rewarding.

我之前看到一项研究特别有意思，说房价其实是一种变相的生育控制——房价每上涨10%，出生率就下降1%。

And that is I looked really was fascinated by the study that said that housing prices are a form of birth control, and that is for every 10% housing prices go up, the birth rate has declined by 1%.

说白了，你虽然还年轻，但一般情况是，你一买房，就开始装修，接着想着要不要多弄个房间，然后自然而然就琢磨：要不，我们该找个伴儿了？

Because, I mean, you're you're a kid, Jack, but generally what you find is when you buy a house, you start fixing it up, and you start fixing up a second bedroom and decide, well, maybe we should find someone to live in the second bedroom.

对。

Yep.

我明白。

I know.

咱们干脆别犹豫了，要个孩子吧。

Let's let's let's pull the goalie and have a kid.

对吧？

Right?

免费的。

Free one.

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

而且我觉得，总的来说，这对你、对你的财富、对你的婚姻都有好处。

So and I think, generally speaking, that's good for you, good for your wealth, good for your marriage.

不过，我也不打算去劝别人。

Well, I I don't wanna tell people.

我把话说明白。

Let me be clear.

生孩子并不能挽救婚姻。

You can't save a marriage having kids.

这恐怕不是个好主意。

That's probably not the thing to do.

但我确实认为，拥有房产能带来心理上的回报。今天早上我和一位民主党参议员见了面，讨论了一个不错的政策。

But I do think there is psychological return, psychic return in homeownership, and that I think a decent policy I met with a Democratic senator this morning.

很多人觉得竞选总统是正事。

A lot of people think is running for president.

我们主张大力开采石油。

I we consider drill baby drill.

我们也应该大力建房，通过税收优惠来释放私营建筑商的活力，并改革 zoning 法规，让我能回到以前的那种生活状态。

Should be build baby build, and we should have tax incentives and unleash the private homebuilder sector and and Yimbi laws such that we go back to where I was.

我以前在旧金山的商学院读书。

I was living in San Francisco at a business school.

我当年在珀彻山买了一套两居室，花了28万5千美元。1992年哈斯商学院毕业生的平均年薪才10万，那房子相当于我年薪的2.8倍。

I bought a two bedroom house in Perchero Hill for $285,000 The average graduate of the Haas School of Business in 1992 was making a $100, so it was 2.8 times my salary.

现在哈斯毕业生的平均年薪涨到了20万，这确实是不错的收入。

Now the average Haas grad is making $200, which is a great income.

但去年湾区的平均房价已经到了220万美元左右。

But the average home I think in the Bay Area as of last year was 2,200,000.

现在可能更接近300万了，因为房价涨得太快了。

It's probably closer to three now because you've seen this acceleration.

所以这个倍数是多少？15倍？

So what is that 15?

从2.8倍涨到了15倍，翻了五倍多。

It's gone from 2.8 to to to 15 times.

就像社会上很多事一样，住房成了财富从新进入者向既得利益者转移的过程——他们通过限制建房许可，把审批权交给现有房主，人为制造了住房短缺。

And like so many things in our society, housing has been a transfer of wealth from the entrance to the incumbents, where they create artificial scarcity through sequestering housing permits by putting housing permits or the authority in the house of current homeowners.

这种情况，权力应该重新交还给政府部门。

This is an instance where it should go back to bureaucrats.

你需要增长。

You need growth.

你需要更多的住房。

You need more housing.

像你这样的人很难找到房子，因为像我这样的人太担心交通问题，故意阻挠新建住房，好让自己的房子升值。

And people like you are having a tough time finding a house because people like me get very concerned with traffic and make it more difficult to build more housing such that the price of my house goes up in value.

我觉得这是美国的一个大问题。

I think this is a big issue for America.

你需要一群能坐下来跟你好好谈的人，说：好吧。

You need a kitchen cabinet of people who can sit down with you and say, alright.

把数据给我看看。

Give me the math.

把数字摆出来。

Give me the numbers.

你该不该买房？

Should you buy a house?

难道不应该吗？

Should you not?

就算从经济角度不合算，如果你爸妈有钱，又有个想娶的姑娘，那就买房吧。

And even if it doesn't make economic sense, if you got rich parents and you got, you know, a a dude you wanna marry, buy a house.

你懂的。

You know?

这里面有很多细节，我觉得人们往往花很多时间纠结该买哪款iPhone，却不愿花点心思去考虑这1500美元的开销。

It's just there's a lot of nuance here, and I think people this is one of those things where people will spend so much time deciding which iPhone they're gonna buy, and they don't spend enough time for $1,500.

他们没花足够的时间去思考，这可能是人生中最大的一笔支出。

They don't spend enough time thinking about what is arguably the largest purchase of their their life.

我还觉得——抱歉用词有点乱——现在像Live Nation这么火、泰勒·斯威夫特演唱会票都卖到六千块，说明你们这一代人已经放弃存钱买房了。

I also think, and I'm sorry for the word salad here, that the IRL movement where Live Nation is booming and Taylor Swift tickets are going for, you know, $6,000, is that a lot of people of your generation have just given up on saving for a home.

我年轻那会儿，每一分钱都存着，就为了攒够六万美元付首付买房。

Tip, when I was your age, every dollar I had was going towards a little fund where I could save $60,000 for the down payment on a home.

现在我觉得很多年轻人心里想的是：我这辈子根本买不起房。

And now I think a lot of kids or young people are saying, there's no fucking way I can buy a home.

我就想去科切拉音乐节。

I'm just I'm gonna go to Coachella.

说到这个，我还想提一下你刚才说的Gimbi和Nimbism的区别，我完全同意。

I mean, well, something else that's funny that you headed on there was and I totally agree on the, like, Gimbi versus Nimbism.

归根结底，我们该多建点房子，这样大家才买得起。但很多选民不希望房价下跌，就像我们之前说的，房子对他们来说更像是投资品。

At the end of the day, we should build more homes, and then people could, like, afford to move into a home, but a lot of the voters don't want their home prices to drop because of what we were saying earlier about it's a lot of people treat it like an investment asset.

即使很多26岁的年轻人能买得起房了，你也不希望你那套四百万的房子跌到二百五十万。

You don't want your 4,000,000 home to be worth 2,500,000 even if a lot of 26 year olds can then buy homes.

这种现象在纽约尤其明显。

But this is especially true in New York.

很多住房其实都靠有富裕父母的人在补贴。

So much of the housing is, like, subsidized by people who do have rich parents.

说实话，我以前没太注意这点，直到我也去读了商学院。

Like, you know, you like, I didn't really pick up on this until, like, I I also went to business school.

我在哥伦比亚大学的时候，看到有人为了上学贷了十几万美元的助学贷款。

I was at Columbia, and, like, you have people who are taking out couple $100,000 in student loans.

有些人日子过得还行，但不是那种靠遗产过活的富二代。

You have people who are, like, fine, but not, like, trust fund kid.

还有些人，生活开销全靠父母补贴，比如父母直接给他们买公寓或联排别墅。

And then you have people whose lifestyle is subsidized or, like, parents will, like, buy them an apartment or townhouse.

大家都在抢同样的住房资源。

And everybody's competing for the same housing supply.

对于现在在高房价城市自己攒首付买房的人来说，本就稀缺的房源，还有一部分是靠家庭经济支持才买得起的——这点我完全理解。

So, like, for the I guess, the people who are, like, making their own down payment for a home right now in a high cost of living city, so much of the already scarce supply is also subsidized by, like, family income, which I'm, like, all for.

如果父母有能力帮孩子承担买房这类大额开支，那当然很好。

Like, if your parents can, like, support and help with, like, big life costs, awesome.

但这让本就紧张的房源变得更加供不应求。

But it makes that really tight supply even tighter.

所以情况真的很棘手。

So it's just tough.

这简直是个供需极度失衡的市场。

You have, like, a really tough supply demand market.

你面临的不利因素太多了。

You have a lot of factors against you.

而且确实有种财务上的虚无感，很多人觉得，这辈子都买不起房，至少在这两个城市没戏，那还不如把钱花在购物、消费和体验上呢。

And, yeah, there's a little bit of financial nihilism where people are like, I'll never afford a home, at least not in one of these two cities, so why not blow it on, you know, material goods, consumerism, experiences?

这就形成了一个恶性循环。

And it's just a pretty vicious cycle.

明白了。

Okay.

稍后我们马上回来，插播一段广告。

So we'll be right back after a quick break.

本节目由BUILT赞助播出。

Support for the show comes from BUILT.

你租房或还房贷的时候，能拿到奖励吗？

Are you getting rewards for paying your rent or mortgage?

我的意思是，除了有个遮风挡雨的家之外？

I mean, aside from having a roof over your head?

如果答案是否定的，那就去看看 BUILT 吧。

If the answer is no, then check out BUILT.

BUILT 会员无论住在哪里，每次支付房租或房贷都能累积积分。

Built members earn points on every housing payment no matter where they live.

你可以用这些积分兑换航班、酒店、Lyft 打车、亚马逊购物、未来的住房付款，还有更多选项。

You can redeem Built points for flights, hotels, Lyft rides, amazon.com purchases, future housing payments, and more.

BUILT 还为每位会员提供内置的智能社区管家服务，通过 Build 应用即可使用。

Built also gives every member access to its agentic neighborhood concierge in the Build app.

这就像一个能连接你家和五万多家合作商户的助手。

It's basically an assistant that's connected to both your home and over 50,000 merchant partners.

你可以让它帮你交房租、订餐厅、预约健身课程、叫车，等等。

So you can ask it to pay your rent, make a dinner reservation, book a fitness class, schedule a lift, and more.

它不仅能帮你办事，还会自动帮你应用会员权益。

It can help you out while automatically applying your member benefits along the way.

抛开这些权益不谈，如果你一直好奇智能 AI 到底是怎么用的，这正是一个真实的例子。

Benefits aside, if you've been curious about what AgenTic AI actually looks like in practice, this is an example of just that.

这不只是给租客用的。

It's not just for renters.

Built 也适用于房贷。

Built works for mortgages too.

住房支出往往是每月最大的开销，能顺便赚积分何乐不为？

When your housing payment is one of your biggest monthly expenses, you might as well earn points on it.

你可以下载 Built 应用，通过 joinbuilt.com/propg 注册你所在地区的会员。

You can download the BUILT app and join the membership for where you live at joinbuilt.com/propg.

就是 joinbuilt.com/propg。

That's joinbilt.com/propg.

用我们的链接注册，让他们知道是你通过我们来的。

Use our link so they know we sent you.

本节目由 Superhuman 赞助。

Support for the show comes from Superhuman.

现代工作的节奏简直让人喘不过气。

The pace of modern work can be relentless.

你每天收到无数来自各种应用的消息。

You're getting a constant influx of messages from a ton of different apps.

你已经一年没关过浏览器标签页了。

You haven't closed all your browser tabs in a year.

所有事情都显得十万火急，想把一切都管好简直不可能。

Everything seems urgent, and staying on top of it all feels like an impossible task.

Superhuman Go 是一个随时在线的AI助手，它了解你正在做什么，不用你从头开始。

Superhuman Go is an AI chat that's always there when you need it, already aware of what you're doing, and doesn't ask you to start from zero.

Superhuman Go 由 Grammarly 团队打造，帮你成为工作中更出色的自己。

Superhuman Go from the makers of Grammarly help you be the best version of yourself at work.

它帮你处理那些重复性工作，让你专心做只有你能完成的事。

It handles the repetitive stuff so you can focus on the work that only you can do.

无论是总结一条拉得很长的邮件链，还是准备五分钟后就要开的会议，Superhuman Go 都能直接嵌入你正在用的工具里——浏览器、邮箱、文档和项目管理平台。

Whether you need to summarize an endless email thread or prep for a meeting that's happening in five minutes, Superhuman Go works inside the tools inside you already use, your browser, inbox, docs, and your project tools.

它的AI聊天窗口就固定在浏览器边侧，随时待命。

And its AI chat is available on the side of your browser, and it's always ready.

不用开新标签页，不用切换应用，也不会丢掉当前的进度。

No new tabs, no switching apps, no losing your place.

这是真正陪你一起工作的AI，而不是压在你头上让你喘不过气，让你有时间和精力去解决真正重要的问题。

This is AI that works with you, not on top of you so that you have the time and brain space to solve the problems that matter.

去试试看吧。

Check it out.

了解更多，请访问 superhuman.com。

Find out more at superhuman.com.

本节目由Vanta赞助支持。

Support for the show comes from Vanta.

你们团队每注册一个新工具，每个供应商启用AI功能，每接入一个新系统，都可能出问题。

Every new tool your team signs up for, every vendor that turns on AI features, every new integration has a chance for something to go wrong.

大多数安全方案根本跟不上AI的快速发展节奏。

And most security programs weren't built for AI's pace of growth.

这时候，Vanta就派上用场了。

Enter Vanta.

Vanta 是目前使用最广泛的智能信任平台，已有超过一万六千家快速发展的企业，包括 Ramp、Cursor 和 Harvey，依赖它确保随时都能通过审计。

Vanta is the number one agentic trust platform used by over 16,000 fast moving companies, including Ramp, Cursor, and Harvey, to ensure they're always audit ready.

现在，Vanta 还能帮企业——包括你所在的公司——在两次审计之间，持续监控供应商、AI 工具和整个环境中的潜在风险。

And now Vanta is helping companies, including yours, watch for the risks that show up between audits across your vendors, your AI tools, and your whole environment.

怎么做呢？

How?

Vanta 的代理程序就像一位 24/7 在线的 GRC 工程师，默默在后台发现问题、帮你起草解决方案，把供应商评估时间缩短一半。

The Vanta agent works like a 20 fourseven GRC engineer in the background, finding issues, drafting fixes for you, and cutting vendor assessment time by to 50%.

无论你是快速增长的初创公司，还是全球性大企业，Vanta 都能帮你自动化安全与合规流程，提升信任度，让你的业务更快、更安心地扩张，抓住更高阶的增长机会，同时节省宝贵的时间。

Whether you're a fast growing startup or a global enterprise, Vanta is here to help you automate your security and compliance and earn improved trust, helping your business scale quickly and with confidence, opening doors to next level growth opportunities and freeing up valuable time.

立即前往 vanta.com/profg 开始使用。

Get started today at vanta.com/profg.

就是 vanta.com/profg。

That's vanta.com/profg.

欢迎回来。

Welcome back.

今天我们请到了杰克·雷恩。

We're here with Jack Raines.

第三个问题来自德克萨斯州的科多瓦。

Question number three comes from Cordova, Texas.

随着人工智能工具的发展，未来还需要理财顾问吗？

Will there be a need for wealth advisors as AI tools develop over time?

当然需要。

Oh, yeah.

百分之百需要。

A 100 a 100%.

你找理财顾问，根本不是为了跑赢市场。

I mean, like, you don't you don't get a wealth adviser to, like, help you outperform the market.

现在有成千上万种智能AI工具。

There's a million, like, Agentsic AI things.

Robinhood刚推出了一款AI交易助手。

Robinhood just rolled out some AI agent trading tool.

至于实际下单交易，AI确实能搞定。

Like, to actually place trades, yeah, AI can do it.

但理财顾问真正的价值，在于告诉你不该做什么，帮你纠正情绪化的投资行为。

But wealth advisers are really there to, like, tell you what not to do and to fix behavioral problems.

说得很对。

Great point.

市场一暴跌，你就慌了，想赶紧抛售。

Market tanks, you panic, you wanna sell.

想想看，2020年市场崩盘时，有多少人忍不住清仓了？2022年第四季度纳斯达克暴跌时，又有多少人割肉离场？如果有顾问提醒你坚持不动，甚至趁着股价便宜多加仓，结果就完全不同了。

Like, the amount of people who would have sold the bottom in 2020 when the market tanked or would have sold in 2022, q four when like the Nasdaq was cratering, where if they had a financial adviser who was like, stay the course, if anything, like, increase your contributions now while stocks are on sale.

那些因为恐慌而冲动卖出的人，错失的可是市场从低点翻倍的机会。

You know, for somebody who would have, like, impulse sold because they panicked, they would have missed out on the market doubling from those bottoms.

现在社交媒体上的信息太杂了，让人越来越难静下心来投资。这时候，一个能帮你稳住情绪、防止你犯情绪性错误的专业顾问，比以往任何时候都更重要。

So I actually think there's more and more and more noise that's causing people to feel more and more distracted when it comes to investing, and having a professional that can actually just manage your emotions and stop you from making like behavioral screw ups is more important now than it was at any other point because of like so much noise on social media.

对。

Yeah.

这挺有意思的。

It's interesting.

大约四分之三的Z世代和三分之二的千禧一代会在线上或通过社交媒体寻求理财建议，而只有七分之一的Z世代表示，遇到财务问题时会首先找专业理财顾问，相比之下，婴儿潮一代中有39%的人会这么做。

About three quarters of Gen Z and two thirds of millennials seek financial advice online or via social media, and only one in seven Gen Zs say they would turn to a financial professional first when faced with a question about finances compared with 39% of boomers.

有意思的是，让我接着你刚才说的讲。

What's interesting is that, well let me go to your point.

我发现自己致富的时候根本没用过理财顾问，也许我该用的，但我没用。

I have found, I didn't use a financial advisor, maybe I should have, but I didn't to get wealthy.

我现在用理财顾问，是为了守住财富。

I use them now to stay wealthy.

没错。

Yep.

我对他们推荐的股票其实并不感兴趣。

And that is I'm not really interested in their stock recommendations.

我觉得他们对股票的了解并不比我多，也不比我少。

I just don't think they know any more or any less than me about stocks.

而且说实话，我觉得这些人有些在推自家的基金，这类基金费用通常更高，而费用确实是复利收益的天敌。

And also to be fair, I think some of these guys are pushing their internal funds, which tend to have higher fees, and I think fees are the enemy of compounding returns.

我觉得你应该选低成本的指数基金，还要做好分散投资。

I think you want be on low cost index funds, you want to be diversified.

我在理财顾问身上花了不少钱，但主要不是为了选股，而是为了分散风险、税务优化——说白了就是合法避税，还有信托这些安排，比如想办法让我孩子将来能拿到足够多的钱做任何事，但又不能多到让他们啥都不用干。

I spend a lot of money on financial advisors, but mostly it's about diversification, tax efficiency, which is Latin for legal tax avoidance, and then things like trusts and trying to figure out a way, like, that I give my kids enough money someday so that they can do anything but not enough money so so they can do nothing.

如果你运气好，有了一定的经济保障，那你更需要的是怎么聪明地守住它，别亏掉，看看自己是不是把所有鸡蛋都放在一个篮子里。

You know, if you're blessed with some level of economic security, you want advice on how to be smart, how not to lose it, to find out if you're too concentrated.

我是不是该卖了？

Should I be, oh, I should sell.

我需要一笔钱。

I need money.

我该不该把这些股票卖了？

Should I sell these stocks?

理财顾问可能会说，别卖。

A financial adviser might say, no.

别卖股票。

Don't sell the stock.

拿它去抵押贷款，让它继续增值。你可以用股票价值的20%来借款，不至于杠杆太高，而且还不用为资本利得缴税。

Borrow against it, and let it continue to compound because we can borrow against your stocks, you know, 20% of their worth and not be that worried about getting too over levered, and you don't have to pay taxes on your gains.

说白了，等你资产达到一定规模，这做法就特别合理。

I mean, there's just it makes sense once you have a certain amount.

可以用AI，但别全信，得用它来帮你做判断，然后去找真正懂钱的人聊聊——不管是理财顾问，还是那些真正会投资的有钱人。

Use AI, but use it to inform you, and then talk to people who understand money, whether it's a financial adviser or just other rich people who really understand how to invest money.

有意思的是，我本身是看好AI的，觉得它创造的就业会比消灭的多，十年后理财顾问的人数只会比现在更多。

What's interesting is that while AI I'm an AI optimist and think it's gonna create more jobs than it destroys, and I think you're going to have more financial advisers in ten years than you have now.

到时候人手会不够。

And there's gonna be a shortage.

未来十年，将近四成的理财顾问要退休，缺口大概有十万个人。

Nearly forty percent of financial advisors are expected to retire within a decade, creating a shortfall of roughly a 100,000 professionals.

AI工具可能不得不补上个人投资者咨询的空缺，但这些大模型都有固有的偏见，不太擅长给长期财务建议，而且AI给你的答案质量，完全取决于你提的问题有多到位，也取决于你自己的财商。

And the AI tools may not, you know, may be structurally required to step in and fill the gap for retail guidance, but these LLMs have, you know, they have real biases, and they're generally not good at giving long term financial advice, and the quality of what AI tells you is based on the quality of the prompt, is based on your financial literacy.

年轻一点、对财务不太懂的人会问，那我怎么才能在接下来十二个月里把钱翻十倍呢？

Younger people who are not as financially literate are asking, yeah, like, how can I get 10 x my money in the next twelve months?

结果AI就会回复说，

And it'll come back.

它会说，你看，

It'll say, look.

这种可能性很低，但最不稳定的资产就是加密货币，它还建议你试试这个。

That's unlikely, but the most volatile assets are crypto and try this.

所以很多问题其实出在提问方式上。

So a lot of it's prompt.

还有研究显示，这些语言模型存在性别偏见，对女性的建议往往比对男性更保守，导致女性长期收益更低。

It also, there's a study showing that these LMs appear to be sexist and that their recommendations tend to be more conservative towards women than men, resulting in them not making over the long term as much money.

在某些方面，我觉得它能起到辅助作用。

In some, I think it'll be an enhancement.

它能让理财建议更易获取，这当然是好事，也是AI的一大优势。

It'll make financial advice more accessible, which is great, and it's a good thing about AI.

但AI不会取代人类顾问，因为理财建议的质量取决于你的个人情况、具体背景、细节以及税务问题。

But it won't replace human advisors since the quality of guidance depends on who you are and context and nuance and tax.

所以我觉得未来金融顾问反而会更多，而且必须有正规资质，懂会计，尤其得精通税务。

So I think we're actually gonna see more financial advisors, and I would say that it's probably with the right credentialing, understanding accounting, very much you need to understand tax.

如果你擅长维系关系、善于社交，那你就得接受一个现实：当金融顾问头十年简直是世界上最糟糕的工作——得参加所有活动，讨好每个人，坐下来跟他们聊未来财务规划，市场一跌还得当他们的情绪垃圾桶。

If you have good relationship skills, if you're good at networking, if people know being a financial adviser is the worst job in the world for ten years because it means to going every fucking event and kissing everyone's ass and sitting them down and talking to them about their financial future and being their therapist when the market goes down.

但熬过十年，要是你能撑下来并积累起客户群，那它就成了世界上最棒的生意，因为你手里握着一群持续给你付费的人，资产管理规模的千分之十、二十、五十，甚至一百个基点，都会源源不断地进账。

And then after ten years, if you can survive it that long and build a book, it becomes the best business in the world because you basically have an asset base of people who keep paying you, you know, ten, twenty, 50, a 100 basis points on the assets under management.

投资组合还是会朝着这个方向走。

Portfolios keep going that way.

但愿如此吧。

Hopefully, right?

是的。

Yeah.

但愿如此。

Hopefully.

对于考虑成为财务顾问的人来说，你对这个职业前景有什么最后的建议吗？

But any closing thoughts on the career prospects of someone thinking of of being a financial advisor?

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，归根结底，这始终是个靠关系吃饭的行当。

I mean, I I think it's I think it's one of those things where at the end of the day, it's always gonna be a relationship game.

硅谷很多人没搞明白的一点是，技术没法取代人与人之间的关系。

And something that a lot of the Silicon Valley world misses is you can't just replace human relationships with technology.

技术确实能帮你放大很多东西。

You can like amplify a lot of stuff.

但当市场波动剧烈、情绪高涨的时候，人们需要的不只是数据，而是一个能让他们安心的声音，一个能把他们从悬崖边拉回来的人。

But when people are in, like, markets are volatile, people are emotional, they both like, they want, like, a comforting voice to rely on on stuff or somebody walking back from the cliff.

所以我的真实建议是，别纠结该不该入这一行，别对人工智能冲击以关系为核心的服务行业太悲观。

So, you know, I my my real advice is it isn't about, like, should you go into this job or that job or whatever, but just don't, like, I would not be pessimistic about AI's impact on relationship driven industries.

财务咨询就是这类行业之一。

You know, financial advice being one of those.

是的。

Yeah.

所以，归根结底，最持久的核心能力还是建立人际关系的能力。

So, again, everything everything still comes back to the core skill, which seems to be most enduring, and that is the ability to establish establish relationships.

杰克·雷恩斯是通讯《年轻财富》的作者，也是即将出版的《年轻财富：二十多岁如何找到财富与人生意义》一书的作者。

Jack Raines is the writer of the newsletter Young Money and author of the forthcoming book Young Money, a field guide to wealth and purpose in your twenties.

他正把书举起来。

He's holding it up.

杰克，非常感谢你参与我们的节目，恭喜你取得的成功。

Jack, thanks so much for joining us, and congratulations on your success.

谢谢。

Thank you.

感谢邀请我。

Thanks for having me.

本期节目由詹妮弗·桑切斯和劳拉·詹纳制作。

This episode was produced by Jennifer Sanchez and Laura Jenner.

我们的社交媒体制作人是卡米·里克，编辑是布拉德·威廉姆斯，技术总监是德鲁·伯罗斯。

Cami Riek is our social producer, Brad Williams is our editor, and Drew Burrows is our technical director.

感谢收听来自预言传媒的《预言播客》。

Thank you for listening to the Prophecy Pod from Prophecy Media.

经营企业不该像应付一个软件小组项目那样累人。

Running a business shouldn't feel like surviving a software group project.

一个软件管财务，另一个管库存，再一个管销售，结果它们全都不互通。

One app for accounting, another for inventory, another for sales, and somehow none of them talk to each other.

这时候就轮到Oto登场了，这是一款一体化的商业管理软件，能把你的整个业务整合在一起。

That's where Oto comes in, an all in one business management software that brings every part of your business together.

从销售、财务，到库存和营销，所有功能都集中在同一个强大的平台上。

From sales and accounting to inventory and marketing, all in one powerful platform.

不用折腾各种集成，不用在不同标签页之间来回切换，最重要的是，再也不用碰电子表格了。

No messy integrations, no bouncing between tabs, and best of all, no spreadsheets.

别再管软件了，用一个统一的系统，专心经营你的生意。

Stop managing software and start managing your business with one unified system.

现在就去 odoo.com/vox 免费试用吧。

Try for free today at odoo.com/vox.

访问 odoo.com/vox 就行。

That's odoo.com/vox.