华尔街是否在操纵 SpaceX 的游戏？此外，投资银行真正教会你什么

本节目由Odoo赞助支持。

Support for the show comes from Odoo.

经营企业不该像应付一个软件小组作业那样吃力。

Running a business shouldn't feel like surviving a software group project.

会计用一个软件，库存用另一个，销售又用第三个，结果这些软件全都不互通。

One app for accounting, another for inventory, another for sales, and somehow none of them talk to each other.

这就是Odoo的用武之地——一款集成了销售、财务、库存、营销等所有业务功能的一体化管理平台。

That's where Odoo comes in, an all in one business management software that brings every part of your business together from sales and accounting to inventory and marketing all in one powerful platform.

不用折腾复杂的系统对接。

No messy integrations.

不用在不同页面之间来回切换。

No bouncing between tabs.

最重要的是，再也不用靠电子表格来撑场面。

And best of all, no spreadsheets.

别再花时间管理软件了，用一个统一的系统，专心经营你的业务吧。

Stop managing software and start managing your business with one unified system.

现在就去 odoo.com/propg 免费试用吧。

Try for free today at odoo.com/propg.

就是 odoo.com/propg。

That's odoo.com/propg.

我是梅根·拉皮诺。

Megan Rapino here.

本周《更进一步》节目，聚焦足球这项美丽的运动，我来到洛杉矶的工作室，与时尚设计师、DJ，同时也是华盛顿精神队首位创意总监的多莫·威尔斯面对面交谈。

This week on a touch more, the beautiful game, I am sitting down with fashion designer, DJ, and the Washington spirit's first ever creative director, Domo Wells, in her LA studio.

我们聊了聊多莫如何走上体育迷的道路，她的DJ经历如何帮助她成为更好的设计师，以及为女性运动员和她们的粉丝设计产品，真正该是什么样子。

We talk about Domo's unusual path towards sports fandom and how her work as a DJ makes her a better designer and what designing for women's athletes and their fans should actually look like.

欢迎收听《更进一步》最新一期节目，各大播客平台和YouTube上都能找到。

Check out the latest episode of a touch more wherever you get your podcasts and on YouTube.

欢迎来到《Prop G》办公时间。

Welcome to Office Hours of Prop G.

这是节目里我们回答你们关于商业、科技巨头、创业，以及任何你关心话题的环节。

This is the part of the show where we answer your questions about business, big tech, entrepreneurship, and whatever else is on your mind.

如果你想为下一期提问，可以发送语音留言到 officehours@profitimmediate.com。

If you'd like to submit a question for next time, you can send a voice recording to officehours@profitimmediate.com.

再次提醒，邮箱是 officehours@profitimmediate.com，或者在 Scott Galloway 的 Reddit 子版块里留言，我们可能会在下一期节目中选用你的问题。

Again, that's officehours@profitimmediate.com or post your question on the Scott Galloway subreddit and we just might feature it in our next episode.

另外，现在你还可以拨打或发送短信至 (201) 472-3656 提问。

Plus, now you can call or text us a question at (201) 472-3656.

号码是 (201) 472-3656。

Again, that's (201) 472-3656.

好了。

Alright.

我们直接开始吧。

Let's bust into it.

第一个问题来自一位听众的邮件。

Our first question comes from a listener who emailed us.

为什么没人对那些让 SpaceX 能够进入纳斯达克、后续公司又被迫购买股票的规则变动提出更多质疑？

Why aren't more alarm bells going off about the rule changes such that SpaceX can get into the Nasdaq and the next ones will be forced to buy shares.

这在我看来就是腐败。

It seems like corruption to me.

而且，不管埃隆的行为有多过分，都拿他没办法。

Also, the fact that there's no recourse against Elon no matter how atrocious his behavior may become.

谢谢。

Thanks.

好的。

Okay.

这里有些背景信息。

Some some context here.

主要的股票指数正在修改纳入规则，明确或不明确地为重磅IPO开绿灯。

Major stock indices are rewriting their inclusion rules specifically, if not explicitly, to accommodate blockbuster IPOs.

首先是SpaceX，但OpenAI和Anthropic也计划在2026年上市。

SpaceX most immediately, but OpenAI and Anthropic are also in the pipeline for 2026.

对于纳斯达克100指数来说，新的快速入编规则允许超级大盘股在上市后仅15个交易日就加入指数，而过去通常需要三个月的观察期。

For the Nasdaq 100, their new fast entry rules mean mega cap stocks can be added to the index just fifteen trading days after their IPO, down from the historic seasoning period of three months.

这一规定适用于市值排名在纳斯达克100指数前40名的公司，快速纳入机制不要求剔除已有的成分股，因此指数成分数量可以暂时超过100只。

This applies to companies with market cap ranking within the top 40 members of the Nasdaq one hundred, and fast entry inclusions won't require an already listed security to be dropped allowing the index to temporarily exceed a 100 constituents.

FTSE Russell也修改了规则，允许 mega cap 公司更快地被纳入指数，标普500也同样适用。

FTSE Russell also changed rules to allow faster inclusion of mega cap IPOs and the S and P 500.

标普500曾考虑缩短上市等待期、取消最低流通量要求、取消盈利门槛，但最终决定维持原状，这对SpaceX来说是个打击。

The S and P considered shortening the seasoning period, waiving minimum flow requirements, and removing its profitability requirement, but ultimately said it wasn't making any changes, dealing a setback to SpaceX.

他们仍然坚持传统标准：上市满一年，且连续四个财季实现GAAP盈利。

They're keeping the traditional bar twelve months public plus four consecutive quarters of GAAP profitability.

那这些变化会带来什么影响呢？

So what is some of the impact of this change?

有超过30万亿美元的资产以标普500、道琼斯、纳斯达克综合指数和FTSE Russell这些指数为基准进行配置。

More than 30,000,000,000,000 in assets are benchmarked in the S and P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq Composite, and FTSE Russell indices.

分析师估计，仅在标普500和纳斯达克100中，被动买入的金额就至少有150亿到300亿美元，如果按流通市值加权计算，实际需求还会高得多。

Analysts estimate conservative forced buying of 15 to 30,000,000,000 across S and P 500, Nasdaq 100, blah blah blah, with more aggressive float weighted scenarios running far higher or above being forced to buy these things.

高盛分析师估算，仅纳斯达克的快速纳入规则变更，就可能引发高达600亿美元的被动买入需求。

Goldman Sachs analysts estimated the Nasdaq fast entry rule change alone could trigger up to 60,000,000,000 in forced buying across Nasdaq 100.

好吧。

Okay.

我觉得很多人在这里反对，其实是拿着锤子看什么都像钉子。

So I think a lot of the pushback here is people I'm a hammer everything I see as a nail.

我觉得这背后是收入不平等的问题。

I think it's income inequality.

人们早就受够了这些人，受够了他们赚的钱，看到那些难以解释的超高估值，更觉得所有从零到一万亿的股东收益都被他们独吞了。

I think people are just so sick of these people, and the amount of money they're making, and when they see these outrageous valuations that are difficult to justify, and that all of the shareholder gains from zero to a trillion have been captured.

就拿SpaceX来说，想以1800亿美元估值面向散户募资，可这些好处早被私募和机构投资者榨干了。

In the case of SpaceX trying to go out to retail investors at 1,800,000,000,000, that all of that juice has been squeezed by private institutional investors.

现在的IPO市场，简直成了韭菜的最后一站。

And the IPO market has in fact become sort of the last stop on the chump train.

当年谷歌上市的时候，市值大概800亿美元，现在涨了500倍。

And that is when Google went public, I think it was an $80,000,000,000 market cap, it's up you know 500 fold.

散户要是能在SpaceX上市时买到，本来能赚500倍，那现在还能赚多少？

Retail investors have had a chance to garner a tremendous you know 500 extra turn if you were get that from SpaceX after it goes public, what would that be?

两万亿美元？

2,000,000,000,000?

那得是多少啊，我真说不上来。

That'd be I don't even know what what is that?

天文数字？

A gazillion?

我也不清楚那到底是什么数。

I I don't know what that is.

所以我觉得，人们自然很生气。

So I think people are naturally pissed off.

而且，只要一有变动，大家就趁机抵制这些公司。

And and another they vent their anger anyway, any change is an opportunity to ship post these companies.

我觉得没必要放宽这些规则。

I don't think waiving the rules here is necessary.

我对这个没那么激动，毕竟这些指数本意就是反映市值最大、最重要的公司。

I'm not as excised about that, because at the end of the day these indices are meant to be reflection of the most important largest market cap companies.

这三家公司本来就符合这个标准。

And all three of these companies already are that.

如果Anthropic五年前成立，而且是在欧洲，它现在已经是欧洲市值前五的公司了。

If Anthropic was founded five years ago, if it had been founded in Europe it'd be one of the five most valuable companies in Europe.

所以我觉得把它们纳入这些指数，是有充分理由的。

So I think including them in these indices, I think you can make a pretty rational reason for it.

再说，你被逼着买这些公司，好像自己是受害者似的——可你明明也被迫买过孟山都，他们可是生产橙剂的公司，Melissa，你也是啊。

And being forced to buy these companies like you're some victim, well you're forced to buy Monsanto who brought us Agent Orange, Melissa I think you are.

我不禁想，菲利普莫里斯公司是不是也在标普500里？

I wonder if Philip Morris is in the S and P 500.

总之我的意思是，这些指数里肯定包含了很多你自己根本不会去买股票的公司，这正是指数的意义所在。

Anyways my point is these indices probably include a lot of companies that on your own you wouldn't buy shares in, that's why it's an index.

这其实引出一个有意思的问题：一家新上市的公司，因为被自动纳入这些指数，就获得远超其真实市场认可的估值，这公平吗？是不是该让它先经历一段‘试炼期’，等普通投资者有时间去检验它的价值之后，再决定是否纳入指数？

It does bring up an interesting point in that is it unfair that a new public company gets juiced beyond its public market reception because it's automatically included in these indices, should it go through a hazing period where it shows its fair value once retail investors have some time to play with it before you decide whether it should go into the index?

我觉得这个说法是有道理的。

I think that's a viable argument.

我不确定你有没有意识到，这其实是另一种手段，用来在上市初期制造一波热潮。

I don't know if you know, worry this is going to this is another technique to get a first pop out of the gates.

我觉得在决定是否把一家公司纳入指数之前，应该先设个冷静期。

I would like to see sort of a cooling off period before you decide whether it should go into the indices.

过去公司上市平均要七年，现在拖到十二年，可这些公司却快得多。

But essentially companies used to take seven years to go public, now they take twelve, and these companies have gone faster.

但把这些最重要、最有价值的公司放进指数里，总体来看，我觉得还是合理的。

But having the most important companies, and these are important valuable companies in the indices, that doesn't I think on balance this kind of makes sense.

我可能还是会再等等，看看第一次交易会怎样，因为这感觉像是专门为制造需求而设计的，而其他IPO可没这待遇，结果就让首日表现显得虚假。

I probably still would have waited a little bit just to see what that first trade is, because it does feel like this is a convenient means of creating demand that hasn't been there for other IPOs, thereby creating a false print on the first print.

这些公司在上市第一天就获得了其他公司根本享受不到的额外需求。

These companies are getting that additional demand right out of the gates that every other company going public hasn't enjoyed.

但与此同时，大家常抱怨的一点是，散户根本没机会接触到这些公司。

At the same time, you know, one of the big complaints is that retail investors haven't had access to these companies.

如果你不想持有这些公司，又不想碰标普指数基金，那大可卖掉它，转投其他不包含‘十巨头’的基金，我相信这样的基金多的是。

And also if in S and P indices or index funds and you don't want to own these companies, then sell your S and P index fund and go into I'm sure there's a lot of funds that don't include the magnificent 10.

我猜应该已经有个ETF，专门跟踪标普指数剔除这十家公司的表现，因为很多人觉得它们被高估了，现在占了标普指数将近四成的权重。

My guess is there's probably even an ETF that is the S and P minus these 10 companies, because a lot of people think they've been overweighted and now they're responsible for 40% of the S and P.

所以你一买标普指数基金，实际上就等于买了这十家巨头，占比接近四成甚至四成三。

So when you buy the S and P, you're effectively buying the magnificent 10 to almost 40 or 43%.

我觉得这不算危险，但绝对不够聪明。

I think that is not dangerous, but not smart.

买指数基金的初衷本来就是分散风险，可现在的标普指数正变得越来越集中。

And that is the whole point of buying index funds was diversification, and the S and P is becoming dramatically less diversified.

总的来说，这些指数本该反映最具价值和最重要的公司。

So in sum, these indices are supposed to reflect the most valuable and important companies.

这些公司就算还没上市，也毫无疑问属于这一类。

These are those companies even distinct to the fact they're not public yet.

但提前制造人为需求，导致首日交易无法真实反映市场反应，这一点确实让人担忧。

But the idea of creating artificial demand upfront, which is doesn't give you a fair litmus test on the initial trade, I can see some concern there.

我至少会要求有个三十到六十天的观察期，确保这些公司真的配得上被纳入。

I would have asked for at least a thirty or sixty day cooling off period to make sure that these companies still qualify.

但这反映了一个更普遍的趋势：标普500已经不再是真正的分散投资了，因为你现在把大部分资金都集中在了这十家公司身上。

But what this reflects is a broader trend that the S and P 500 is no longer really diversification as you're concentrated now amongst 10 companies.

那这对你会有什么影响呢？

And what does that mean for you?

如果你不喜欢麦当劳，那就别吃麦当劳呗。

If you don't like, you know, you don't like Chick fil A, don't eat a Chick fil A.

如果你不想被迫投资SpaceX、Anthropic和OpenAI这些公司，那就卖掉你的标普指数基金，转投其他基金吧——肯定有不少基金专门避开这些公司。

You don't want to be an enforced investor in SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI, then sell your S and P index funds and go into other funds, which I'm sure there's a ton of them that don't that that avoid these companies.

但说实话，这里的关键教训是：你以为买标普或者类似的指数基金就等于分散投资，其实根本不是。

But really, I think the learning here is that to believe you're diversified in an S and P or SBY index fund, you're not.

你其实全押在美国市场。

You're all in America.

而且主要押在科技板块。

You're mostly in tech.

你可能真该考虑一下其他类型的指数基金，比如投向不同资产类别或不同地区的。

And you may wanna think about other index funds that look at other asset classes and other geographies.

谢谢你的提问。

Thanks for the question.

第二个问题来自Reddit。

Question number two comes from Reddit.

Spellsad八三五二说：嗨，斯科特，我27岁，过去三年半一直在做建筑设备销售，成绩还不错。

Spellsad eighty three dash fifty two says, hi Scott, I'm 27 years old and have spent the last three and a half years in construction equipment sales and had lots of success.

再过几周，我就要开始一份新工作，也是做销售，但是一家完全远程的软件初创公司。

In a few weeks I will be starting a new job, also in sales, at a software startup working fully remote.

你对刚转型到完全远程销售岗位的人，有什么建议？另外，对在初创公司工作的人，又有什么建议？

What advice would you give to someone, number one, on transitioning to a fully remote role, specifically sales, and number two, working at a startup.

天哪。

Gosh.

好吧。

Okay.

27岁的时候，我觉得办公室反而是个优势，而不是负担。

At twenty seven boss, I would argue the office is a feature, not a bug.

尽量多和同事待在一起。

And do everything you can to get around other coworkers.

有研究显示，在办公室工作的人升职几率高出40%。

There's evidence saying you're 40% more likely to get promoted if you're in the office.

我觉得你正处在最不该远程工作的年龄段。

And I think you're in the kill zone, and that is I think you're in the exact wrong demographic to be working remotely.

你需要导师，也需要交朋友、建立人脉。

I think you want mentors, you want to find friends, mates.

HR不爱听这个，但每三个关系里就有一个是在职场开始的，而且99.9%都是双方自愿的。

HR hates this, but one in three relationships begin at work, and 99.9% of them have been consensual.

所以对一个27岁的男性来说，办公室不是缺陷，而是优势。

So I think the office is a future, not a bug for a 27 year old male.

不过话说回来，远程工作的话，你得严格管好自己的时间表和截止日期。

Now having said that, working remotely, I think you gotta be pretty disciplined about a schedule and deadlines.

给自己设定目标，比如每周打多少个新客户电话，参加多少场线下会议。

Setting up deadlines for the number of new business calls you're gonna make, number of meetings you're gonna go to in person.

你知道，刚入职就得一上来就表现得特别出色，因为所有人都在盯着你，而且他们的考核标准特别精细。

You know, you gotta come out of the gate strong because you're gonna have to impress everybody, and they're gonna have very, very adroit anodyne metrics.

比如你打了多少电话、约了多少次会谈、成交率有多高。

Number of calls you make, number of deals or conversations you set up, and your close rate.

我觉得你得尽量多和客户、同事面对面相处。

And I think you want to figure out a way to be in person with clients and coworkers as much as possible.

我觉得光待在家里刷领英、拼命约线上会议，对一个27岁的男生来说，真不是个好办法。

And you may I don't know, you know, I don't know how I think just being at home, just trolling LinkedIn, trying to set up meetings, I don't think that's good for a 27 year old man.

所以我的建议是，尽量多离开办公室、离开家，多去见客户、见老板、见同事，能当面就别线上。

So I I think that one, try and figure out a way to get out of the office or get out of your home as much as possible such that you can meet with clients face to face, meet with your boss, meet with your coworkers as often as possible.

这真的特别重要。

I think that's hugely important.

要是我像你这么大的时候远程办公、一个人待在家里，那肯定完蛋。

And in order to do I would have been a disaster remote work at your age home alone.

我可能只会特别擅长遛狗、多运动，这倒也不是坏事。

I just would have been really good at walking my dog and, you know, getting more exercise in, which isn't necessarily a bad thing.

但你得非常自律，每天晚上睡觉前，或者什么时候，给自己定好要完成的事项。

But you're gonna have to be very disciplined and set metrics for yourself every night before you go to bed or whenever saying I need to do the following things.

在销售这行，尤其是远程工作的情况下，公司确实很擅长给你设定指标。

And I guess in sales, especially with remote work, they're good at creating metrics for you.

不过我要提醒你，别只顾着赚钱，陷进那种日子里。

But I would be would be careful not to fall into a world of making good money.

我又在说教了，毕竟我的方式未必对，但这确实是我自己的做法。

Again, I'm preaching here, because my way isn't necessarily the right way, but it's my way.

我觉得真正能让你进步的，只有关系，而远程工作根本没法帮你建立或维系深厚的人际关系。

But I think the only way you really get ahead is through relationships, and remote work doesn't set yourself up for relationships or strong relationships.

所以现实是，我觉得情况并不乐观，你得想办法先做出点成绩，然后争取转到更多面对面沟通的岗位——无论是和同事还是客户。

So the reality is I see the glass is half empty here, and I would try and figure out a way to show a certain level of performance and then such that you can get to a position that involves more peer to peer contact and peer to client contact.

如果你非得待在家里，那就得给自己排好日程、设好截止日期，逼自己负责，这点我觉着，你这个年纪特别难做到。

And if you're gonna be at home, you just gotta set up a schedule and deadlines to hold yourself accountable, which is difficult, I find, at your age.

我这个年纪，也觉得很难。

I find it difficult at my age.

总之，抱歉我在这事儿上没那么乐观，不过还是恭喜你拿到这份工作。

Anyway, sorry I'm not more optimistic there, but congratulations on the job.

只要你懂销售，赚的钱永远比你该得的多。

If you know how to sell, you can always make more money than you deserve.

任何公司里收入最高的都是销售，人人都嫉妒他们，因为他们愿意做别人不肯做的事——咽下那些难堪的委屈。

The most overcompensated people in any company are the salespeople, and everyone resents them because they're willing to do one thing other people aren't, and that is get out a big spoon and eat shit.

打电话给根本不想听你说话的人，人家让你别再打来了，你反而觉得这是暗示三个月后再打回去。我不知道销售是不是从小玩错了玩具，还是自尊心特别强或者特别弱。

And that is call people who don't wanna hear from you, and when they say don't call me again, you say, oh, I think that means I should call you back in three months and just have I don't know if salespeople played with the right toys or the wrong toys or if they have exceptionally high or exceptionally low self esteem.

这都不重要。

It doesn't matter.

只要你能卖得动，就总能过上不错的生活。

If you can sell, you can always make a good living.

你会练就最核心的能力——承受拒绝的本事。

And you develop the ultimate skill set, which is the ability to endure rejection.

所以，如果你在销售上做得不错，那显然你已经具备了这种能力。

So clearly, you have that skill set if you're doing well in sales.

总之，恭喜你，祝你好运。

Anyways, congratulations to you and best of luck.

短暂休息后，我们马上回来。

We'll be right back after a quick break.

本节目由Upwork赞助支持。

Support for the show comes from Upwork.

扩大业务需要时间，但这条路并不是一帆风顺的。

Scaling a business takes time, but it's not entirely a straight line.

过程中会有停顿、反复，有时你得全力冲刺，快速引进人才。

There are stops and starts and times when you need to sprint and bring in talent fast.

Upwork能帮你快速扩充团队，引入专业自由职业者，让你抓住时机，把业务推向新高度。

And Upwork can help your team grow quickly by bringing in specialized freelancers so you can meet the moment and take your business to the next level.

Upwork是一个一站式平台，帮你找到、雇佣并支付来自网页与软件开发、数据分析、商业运营等领域的专家自由职业者。

Upwork is a one stop platform to find, hire, and pay expert freelancers across web and software development, data and analytics, business operations, and more.

Upwork还能通过提供120多个领域的专业人才，帮你加速业务增长。

Upwork also helps grow your business by giving you fast access to specialized talent across a 125 plus categories.

这样你就能填补技能缺口，更快启动项目，并根据需要灵活增减支持人员，而无需雇佣全职员工。

So you can fill skill gaps, launch projects faster, and scale support up or down without committing to full time headcount.

成千上万正在成长的企业已经信赖Upwork，为从单次项目到长期支持的各种需求，招聘灵活且高质量的自由职业者。

Thousands of growing businesses already trust Upwork to hire flexible, high quality freelance talent for everything from one off projects to ongoing support.

你可以浏览个人资料，查看过往作品，还能获得岗位需求的建议，让你放心 hiring，快速上手。

You can browse profiles, review past work, and get help scoping the roles so you can hire with confidence and get started quickly.

注册完全免费，发布职位也很简单。

It's free to sign up, and posting a job is easy.

现在就访问 upwork.com/professorg，免费发布你的职位。

Visit upwork.com/professorg right now and post your job for free.

访问 upwork.com/professorg，今天就与准备帮助你业务成长的顶尖人才建立联系。

That's upwork.com/professorg to connect with top talent today ready to help your business grow.

访问 upwork.com/propg。

That's upwork.com/propg.

upwork.com/propg。

Upwork.com/propg.

本节目由SoFi赞助支持。

Support for the show comes from SoFi.

作为家长，如果你正在帮孩子应对大学开销，你一定知道费用有多快就累积起来了。

If you're a parent helping your child navigate college, you know just how fast the cost can pile up.

学费、住宿费、教材费，还有日常生活开销，高等教育的投入是一笔不小的财务负担。

Between tuition, housing textbooks, and everyday living expenses, funding higher education is a major financial commitment.

这时候，今天的赞助商SoFi就派上用场了。

That's where today's sponsor, SoFi, comes in.

SoFi提供私人学生贷款，最高可覆盖学校核定的全部费用。

SoFi offers private student loans that can cover up to a 100% of school certified costs.

不仅涵盖本科和研究生的学费，SoFi还能帮你支付住宿、教材、伙食以及其他与学业相关的开销。

Not just undergrad and graduate tuition, but SoFi can also help cover housing, books, food, and other education related expenses.

SoFi的私人学生贷款主打灵活灵活。

SoFi's private student loans are all about flexibility.

它们提供有竞争力的固定或浮动利率、多种还款期限，以及按月还款方案，方便你根据预算来安排。

They offer competitive fixed or variable rates, multiple term options, and monthly payments so you can build around your budget.

申请流程全程在线，几分钟内就能查看你的利率。

The application process is completely online, and you can check your rate in minutes.

对于一家人一起考虑选项的情况，加上一位符合条件的共同借款人，可能有助于获得更低的利率。

And for families exploring their options together, adding a qualified cosigner may help improve chances of securing a lower interest rate.

而且完全没有任何费用。

And there are zero fees required.

也就是说，没有申请费，也没有逾期费，绝无隐藏收费。

That means no origination fees or late fees, no surprises.

你看到的，就是你最终要还的金额。

What you see is what you pay back.

前往 sofi.com/profgstudent 查看你的选项，用更聪明的方式为教育筹资。

Head to sofi.com/profgstudent to check your options and get your education funded the smarter way.

网址是 sofi.com/profgstudent。

That's sofi.com/profgstudent.

由 SoFi 银行，NA 会员，FDIC 保险机构发放。

Originated by SoFi Bank, NA member FDIC.

条款和条件适用。

Terms and conditions apply.

请理性借贷。

Please borrow responsibly.

本节目由Gevity赞助支持。

Support for the show comes from Gevity.

大多数做体检的人，都会遇到同样的问题。

Most people who get blood work done hit the same wall.

报告出来了，医生点点头，说一切正常。

Results come back, you get a nod, and everything looks fine.

然后你就继续过你的日子。

And then you go about your day.

但要是真出了问题，你又该找谁帮忙呢？

But what happens when something does come up and you're still left to your own devices?

体检报告发现了异常，可接下来你该怎么做？

Your blood work flags something, but now you need to figure out what to do about it.

Gevity 就是为了填补这个空白而设计的。

Gevity was made to close that gap.

这是首个全方位精准健康会员服务。

It's the first all in one Precision Health membership.

成为会员后，你能获得一个由三人组成的专属护理团队，包括功能医学专家和抗衰老临床医生。

As a member, you get access to a dedicated three person care team, including a functional health expert and longevity clinician.

他们会仔细分析你的血液检测结果，并为你量身定制一套方案。

They review your blood work and build a plan personalized to you.

之后，无论你需要什么，比如补充剂或处方药，都会每月直接寄到你家。

Then whatever you need, such as supplements prescriptions, are shipped to your door every month.

他们的全身检测范围远不止血液检查。

And their full body testing goes beyond blood work.

比如，你还可以做肠道菌群分析、基因检测、癌症筛查等等。

For example, you can get gut microbiome analysis, genetic testing, cancer screening, more.

这是一站式服务，整合了检测、临床支持和干预措施。

It's testing plus clinical support plus intervention all in one membership.

这里有一些数据。

Here's some data.

93%的会员在第一次和第二次验血之间都看到了明显的改善。

Ninety three percent of members see meaningful improvements from their first to second round of blood work.

目前，听众可以通过 gogevity.com/profg 享受会员费八折优惠。

Right now, listeners can get twenty percent off membership at gogevity.com/profg.

访问 gogevity.com/profg，即可享受会员费20%的折扣。

That's gogeviti.com/profg for 20% off your membership.

欢迎回来。

Welcome back.

第三个问题。

Question number three.

嗨，斯科特。

Hey, Scott.

我很喜欢你的播客，不知道你是否会回头深入探讨某个问题，我想接着聊聊早期从事投资银行工作的价值。

I enjoy your podcast, and I don't know if you ever come back to a question and drill down further, but I wanna follow-up on the value of an investment banking career early in one's path.

我之前在你的一期播客里听到你说，投行经历的价值主要在于学会吃苦、注重细节、与人相处，你还提到一种工作方式。

I heard you tell somebody on a recent podcast that the value of an investment banking experience basically was learning to work hard, attention to detail, getting along with others, and you also referred to an approach to work.

我的问题是，如果你已经认真读完大学，也在大学里付出了努力，那你大概早就知道怎么吃苦了。

My challenge for you is if you're somebody who's applied himself and gone to college and applied himself in college, you know, you you probably know how to work hard.

你也早就懂得注重细节。

You probably know attention to detail.

你也清楚怎么和别人相处。

You probably know how to get along with others.

所以从我的角度看，如果你一毕业就去干几年投行，最后带走的就只是这些能力，那感觉有点重复，甚至可能是浪费时间，还不如去学点更实用、能用一辈子的技能。

So from my perspective, if you came out of college and did investment banking for a few years, and that were those were really the primary skills that you walked away with, that just feels sort of redundant and maybe even a loss or a waste of time relative to learning something more applied that you could use in the rest of your life.

当然，你可能也学到了一些真正实用的技能。

Now maybe you do learn some really important applied skills.

比如对你来说，做固定收益业务时学到的那些东西——像表格、资产负债表，或者其他经济方面的知识——确实对以后的职业有帮助。

Maybe there's something about, for in your case, doing fixed income that actually is useful for the rest of your career, whether it's spreadsheets or balance sheets or other economic considerations.

但我希望你能再澄清一下这一点。

But I would love for you to clarify that.

到底是哪一个呢？

Like, which is it?

是软技能吗？

Is it the soft skills?

还是硬技能？

Is it the hard skills?

那到底是什么让投资银行这份工作有价值呢？

But what makes the value of an investment banking career?

谢谢你的问题。

Thanks for the question.

我现在越来越意识到，以我这个年纪，很多时候我根本不知道自己不知道什么，因为世界变化实在太大了。

So I'm I'm trying to increasingly recognize that at my age, a lot of times I don't know what I don't know because the world has obviously changed a lot.

我1987年刚到摩根士丹利的时候才21岁，当时唯一拿得出手的本事就是会面试。

I was 21 when I showed up at Morgan Stanley in 1987, and my only skill set was I interview well.

我当初为什么会选择投资银行呢？

Why did I go into investment banking?

我当初之所以进入投资银行，就只有一个原因。

The only reason I even went into investment banking.

如果你在我刚去那天问我投资银行是干嘛的，我真说不上来。

If you asked me what investment banking was the day I showed up, I don't think I could have told you.

我大四那年有个室友，很多年轻男生都会这样。

But I was I had a roommate my senior year, as a lot of young men are.

我和他互相较劲，他的梦想就是当投资银行家。

I was very competitive with him and him with me, and his dream was to be an investment banker.

所以他想干这个，我就决定也要干。

So I thought if he wants to do it, I'm going to do it.

这就是我想当投资银行家的原因。

That's why I wanted to be an investment banker.

我还觉得这能让我妈觉得有面子，也能吸引那些陌生女生。

Also I thought it would impress my mom, and I thought it would impress strange women.

我当时根本不知道自己想干嘛，就想着不如干脆装酷，当个投资银行家吧。

I had no fucking idea what I wanted to do, so I thought I'll just be awesome and be an investment banker.

然后就拿到了这份工作。

And got the job.

我觉得你说得对。

And I think you're right.

如果你真的具备很强的金融能力和自律性，可能就不会有我这样的意外收获了。

I think if you have a really strong skill set around finance and discipline, then you wouldn't have registered or there wouldn't be the same upside as I received.

我那时候什么都没有。

I didn't have those things.

在加州大学洛杉矶分校，我主要学会的是怎么用家里的东西做烟枪。

At UCLA, my primary skill set garnered was how to make bongs out of household items.

我也不够自律。

And I was not disciplined.

我根本没怎么认真干活。

I was not you know, didn't work hard.

所以摩根士丹利对我来说就像海军陆战队，简直是当头一棒。

And so Morgan Stanley was kind of like the Marines for me, and that is a really sort of was a swift kick in the ass.

还有，关于资本市场，这些东西光靠看书是学不会的。

And also just learning about the capital markets, you can't learn that strictly from a book.

我刚去的时候，大概是两个月后，或者六周后，正好是1987年10月的黑色星期五，投资银行部的一位董事说，咱们得去交易大厅看看，他知道那天会很不寻常。

When I showed up, I think two months later or six weeks later, it was Black Friday, October I forget it was 1987, and one of the MDs in the investment bank group said we should go down to the trading floor because he knew it was a big day.

交易大厅里乱成一团，我拼命想弄明白到底发生了什么。

And it was just mayhem on the trading floor and trying to understand what was going on.

那天标普指数一个早上就从1400点跌到900点，所有人都觉得世界末日来了。

I think the S and P went from, you know, 1,400 to 900 in one morning, and everyone thought it was the end of the world.

我只是想搞清楚到底发生了什么，人们是怎么反应的。

But just trying to understand what was happening and how humans reacted to it.

交易部门后来裁掉了一些人。

And there were some layoffs in the trading department.

你这才真正感受到了商业的脉搏。

You just got a feel for business.

后来我还去见了洛杉矶的县议员，参与提案，试着理解为什么销售额提高百分之零点五，就能支撑起洛杉矶这条至今还在陆续开通的地铁。

And then meeting with, you know, the county commissioners for LA and proposing and trying to understand how a quarter percent increase in sales tax was going to fund this subway in LA that is now still opening stops.

我慢慢开始把金融和债券市场跟资本形成、项目建设联系起来，比如免税债券、房地产债券，还有信贷市场这些事。

You start to connect, at least I did finance and the bond market to capital formation and building things, and tax free bonds versus bonds for real estate and the credit markets.

我觉得我学到了很多东西。

So I think I learned a lot.

公司里的层级结构，学校里根本没法模拟，我觉得。

And there's nothing about the hierarchy of the corporate sector that you can replicate in school, I don't think.

如果你上的是更好的学校，或者更认真对待学业，你的能力会不会更强？

Could you have shown up with stronger skills if you went to a better school or took school more seriously?

当然会。

Absolutely.

不过我那时候读的是个两年制的项目。

But I think those kind of it was a two year program when I went.

读完两年，就回商学院继续深造。

You went two years and then went back to business school.

我那一届有87个分析师，说实话，我觉得有84个人都回商学院了。

There was 87 analysts in my class, and literally I think 84 of us went back to business school.

我觉得这种路径，或者说这种导师制、培训项目——你拼命干活，拿还不错的薪水，最后还得个金字招牌，我很认同这种模式。

I think that path or that sort of mentorship or training program where you work your ass off and you get decent pay or good pay and you get that stamp on your forehead, I like that model.

但遗憾的是，我觉得很多投行，比如高盛，现在根本不再从商学院招人了。

And unfortunately, I think a lot of investment banks Goldman doesn't doesn't even hire out of business school anymore.

他们直接从本科生里挑人，还说：别回去读MBA了，我们更愿意在这儿花两年时间把你培养成自己人。

They find people out of undergrad, and they'd say, don't go back to business school because we'd rather just morph, you know, train you in the two years here.

我们会给你更多技能。

We'll give you more skills.

所以我回过头来看。

So I I look back.

从那以后，这是我唯一做过的工作。

It's the only kind of job I've ever had since then.

我干得并不出色，也没取得什么成就，更没本事在大公司里周旋。

I wasn't very good at it, and I wasn't very successful at it, and I didn't have the skills to navigate a large organization.

我这话是什么意思呢？

What do I mean by that?

我当时真的太没有安全感了。

I was literally too insecure.

别人走进会议室，我就觉得他们是在议论我。

People would go into a conference room, and I would think they were talking about me.

我对那些比我资历深、我觉得和我一样聪明的人，心里特别不服气。

I resented anybody senior to me that I think was as smart as me.

事实上，他们可能比我聪明，或者至少不比我差。

And the reality is they're probably as smart or smarter.

我当时太不成熟了，根本应付不了公司里的那些复杂关系。

I was just too immature to navigate a corporate environment.

如果你能以风险调整后的视角在大公司里游刃有余，那才是积累财富更好的途径。

And if you can navigate a corporate environment on a risk adjusted basis, it's a better place to get wealthy.

当年我的上司，现在已经是副主席了，我估计他赚了上亿美金，经历的波折和压力，远比我这个创业者要少得多，我可是起起落落，没一天安稳。

You know, the guy who was my boss is now the vice chairman, and I think he's probably made hundreds of millions of dollars and had much less tumult and indigestion than I've had as an entrepreneur, up and down and up and down.

所以，美国的大公司依然是历史上最强的财富创造机器，但你真得有本事才能在里头混得开。

So the American corporation is still the greatest wealth generator in history, and you do need skills to navigate it.

你得够成熟。

You've got to be mature.

偶尔总会遇到不公平的事。

Occasionally there's going to be injustice.

那些没你聪明、没你有才华的人，反而可能比你先升职。

Someone not as smart or talented than you is going to get promoted over you.

你得忍着那些糟心事。

You're gonna have to put up with bullshit.

你还会收到邮件告诉你，我们调整了做法。

You're gonna have to get emails telling you that we've changed this approach.

你根本不知道为啥，也完全说不通。

You don't even know why, and it makes no sense.

但这就是代价，没办法。

It just, there's that in exchange.

他们会帮你把那个痣去掉的。

They'll remove that mole for you.

他们会给你买医疗保险。

They'll give you health insurance.

你得慢慢积累财富。

You get rich slowly.

他们有强大的平台来创造股东价值。

They have their incredible platforms for creating shareholder value.

你会遇到很多聪明人。

You meet a lot of smart people.

所以我觉得创业被过分吹捧了，而大公司却被严重低估了，因为自己创业听着更酷、更吸引人，却没人提六七成的企业在七年左右就倒闭了，尤其是小企业。

So I think that entrepreneurship is vastly overrated and the corporate world is vastly underrated because it's just cooler and sexier to start your own business, ignoring the fact that six out of seven businesses aren't around in about seven years, or small businesses.

所以我从中学到了很多。

So I got a lot out of it.

这就像——再说一遍——当过海军陆战队队员那样。

It's kind of like, again, serving in the Marines.

我很庆幸自己当初做了这个选择。

I'm glad I did it past tense.

我觉得刚毕业就进大公司工作，尤其是有正规培训体系的，是认识同龄人、接受良好训练、获得严厉鞭策、提升专业能力的绝佳方式。

I still think that working for a corporation right out of school, if they have some sort of formal training program, is a fantastic way to meet peers, get a good training, get a good swift kick in the ass, deepen your skills.

如果你像我一样，发现并不喜欢这种生活，那也是一种幸运。

And if you're like me and you don't like it, that's a blessing too.

我觉得二十多岁最重要的，是搞清楚自己不仅喜欢什么，更不喜欢什么。

I think your twenties are about figuring out not only what you like, but what you don't like.

你应该好好利用二十多岁，去摸索自己擅长什么。

You wanna workshop your twenties to figure out what you're good at.

能和摩根士丹利那样顶尖的人才共事，对我而言受益匪浅。

So, and to just be around that quality of human capital that Morgan Stanley was able to attract was hugely beneficial for me.

当时我所在的洛杉矶部门有三位分析师。

And my two, had, there were three analysts in my department in Los Angeles.

一位去了私募，另一位进了渔业，把芝加哥几家鱼类分销公司整合起来，后来卖给了私募股权公司。

One went into private, one went into the fish business and rolled up a bunch of fish distribution companies in Chicago and then sold to private equity.

另一位现在是康涅狄格州的一名私人财富管理顾问。

The other guy is a personal wealth manager in Connecticut.

我班上另一个分析师，后来在四十多岁的时候成了海曼和弗里德曼公司的首席执行官。

And then one of my other analysts in my class went on to be the CEO of Hellman and Friedman at the age of 40 or 45.

我觉得他可能是我们当中最成功的。

I think he's probably the most successful among us.

我肯定还有不少人后来也走上了这条路。

And I'm sure a lot of people went on to do it.

还有一个人现在是我的合伙人。

Another guy owns my stall mate.

另一个人做私募股权，还拥有一家船务公司。

Another guy is a private equity guy, and he owns, god, a boat company.

我一时想不起名字了。

I forget what it's called.

唉，真头疼。

Ugh.

我快崩溃了。

I'm kill myself.

辛克利。

Hinkley.

他拥有辛克利的野餐艇。

He owns Hinkley's picnic boat.

不管怎样，我觉得我当年参加的那两年或三年分析师项目，对我而言收益巨大。

Anyways, so I I think these two year or three year analyst programs, at least for me, were hugely accretive.

我明白你说的，关于更有条理地投入工作。

I get what you're saying around showing up with more discipline.

如果我刚去的时候具备你描述的那些技能，我可能会更成功。

If I'd shown up with some of the skills you described, I would have been more successful there.

但我还是觉得，在顶尖公司参加这种正规培训项目，收获真的很多。

But I still think you get a lot from those formal training programs at high caliber companies.

这些公司和年轻人之间的基本约定就是：我们全权掌控你。

The basic compact with those companies and young people is we own your ass.

你的生活将完全失去平衡。

You're gonna have no balance in your life.

你得拼命工作。

You're gonna work insanely.

简直有点过分了。

It's almost borderline abusive.

但作为交换，你的薪水会比你父母在比你现在大十岁的时候挣得还多。

But in exchange, we're gonna pay you more than your parents made when they were ten years older than you.

你猜怎么着？

And guess what?

很多年轻人会举手表示愿意接受。

A lot of young people will raise their hand, and they want that.

他们愿意做这个交换。

They want that trade off.

我也想要过这种生活。

I wanted that.

我当时就只想赚钱，还想积累技能和经验，好赚更多钱。

I just wanted to make money, and I wanted to develop the skill set and context so I could make more money.

所以，世界上最有成就的公司，通常在经济上都和员工达成了这样的默契。

So the most successful organizations in the world typically have that type, at least economically, that compact with their employees.

也就是说，你会付出很多，但我们会让你更快地成长、晋升。

And that is you're going to sacrifice a lot, and we're going to move you further faster here.

有很多人愿意接受这样的条件。

And there's a lot of people who'll sign up for that.

我不在乎是迪士尼、高盛，还是麦肯锡。

I don't care if it's Disney, Goldman Sachs, McKinsey.

你去Meta看看，尤其是在公司成长初期，工作时间有多长。

You know, these are, you know, go to Meta and see what your hours are like, at least in the growth stages or the early days.

这种模式能长期维持下去吗？

Is that sustainable?

长期来看，通常不行。

Typically not over the long term.

对吧？

Is it?

我不确定。

I don't know.

这完全是另一种文化。

It's just a different culture.

这取决于你想要什么。

It's just what you're looking for.

但我认为，这种学徒文化对顶尖品牌来说是行得通的。

But I think that apprentice culture are going to work for a great brand.

如果你有机会进入高盛或贝恩这样的公司，说实话，你该答应下来，毕竟你四十岁的时候不可能再去参加贝恩为期两年的分析师项目。

If you have access to those platforms, if you can get into a JPMorgan or a Bain, quite frankly, I think you need to opt towards yes because you're not gonna go do a two year analyst program at Bain when you're 40.

这正是个特殊的机会。

It's a unique time.

你还没养孩子，也没结婚。

You don't have dogs or kids or spouses.

你可以拼命工作，积累大量经验。

You can work your ass off, get a lot of experience.

这么多年来，我一直带着这个品牌标签。

And I've carried that brand on my forehead for several decades now.

我觉得它确实帮了我不少忙。

I think it's served me well.

我聊起信贷市场时，人们更愿意认真听，毕竟我曾在一家投行的固定收益部门工作过。

I think people take me more seriously when I talk about the credit markets because I did work in fixed income at a in a management bank.

哎呀。

Whew.

刚才那番话真是乱七八糟。

That was a word salad.

谢谢你的提问。

Appreciate the question.

本期就到这里了。

That's all for this episode.

如果你想提问，欢迎把语音留言发送到 officehours@Prop2.com。

If you'd like to submit a question, please email a voice recording to officehours@Prop2.com.