毫不留情 / 毫无恶意：对年轻人的战争

本节目由西北注册代理公司赞助支持。

Support for the show comes from Northwest Registered Agent.

你的企业身份，决定了你的业务是否正规、专业。

Your business identity is everything that makes your business legitimate and professional.

通过西北注册代理公司，你不仅注册公司，更建立了一套专为隐私、信誉和成长打造的完整基础。

With Northwest Registered Agent, you don't just form a business, you start a complete foundation built for privacy, credibility, and growth.

包括注册代理服务、企业地址、运营协议、域名、网站、专业邮箱、电话号码，以及内置的隐私保护。

That includes registered agent service, a business address, operating agreement, domain, website, professional email, phone number, and built in privacy.

换句话说，你的家庭住址、个人邮箱和电话号码都会被严格保密。

In other words, your home address, personal email, and phone number stay private.

别花几百甚至上千美元去买那些西北注册代理公司免费提供的服务。

Don't pay hundreds or thousands of dollars for what you can get from Northwest for free.

访问 northwestregisteredagent.com/profgfree，立即免费使用这些资源，打造属于你的非凡事业。

Visit northwestregisteredagent.com/profgfree and start using free resources to build something amazing.

更多服务，尽在西北注册代理公司：northwestregisteredagent.com/profgfree。

Get more with Northwest Registered Agent at northwestregisteredagent.com/profgfree.

很多公司都在投资人工智能，但真正使用它的人只占一小部分，而能真正看到价值的更是少之又少。

A lot of companies are investing in AI, but most only have a small group actually using it and an even smaller group who are really seeing the value.

Superhuman 解决了这个问题。

Superhuman fixes that.

由 Grammarly 团队打造的 Superhuman AI，直接融入你们团队已经在用的每一个工具里。

From the makers of Grammarly, superhuman AI lives in every tool your team already uses.

比如自动草拟、内容总结等功能，让使用习惯和熟练度自然而然地形成。

For instance, with drafts, summaries, and more, so habits and proficiency form naturally.

当团队里的每个人都能发挥出最佳状态，你的AI投资才会开始产生复利效应。

When every person on your team works at their best, that's when your AI investment starts to compound.

去 superhuman.com 看看 Superhuman 能做什么。

See what Superhuman can do at superhuman.com.

本节目由毕马威赞助。

Support for the show comes from KPMG.

在任何组织里，变革都是不可避免的，但没必要为此苦苦挣扎。

In any organization, disruption is inevitable, but struggling through it doesn't have to be.

KPMG适应力指数为您提供了一份蓝图，帮助您培养应对未来挑战的能力。

The KPMG Adaptability Index is your blueprint for building capabilities to handle what comes next.

它基于真实数据，分析您的企业文化、战略和合作伙伴关系如何协同作用，推动业务成长。

It uses real data to look at how your culture, strategy, and partnerships all work together to help your business thrive.

别再被动应对了，主动适应起来吧。

Stop reacting and start adapting.

立即访问 kpmg.com/us/adaptability，了解适应力指数和实时调研报告。

Visit kpmg.com/us/adaptability to explore the adaptability index and pulse surveys today.

两个月前，我就对所谓AI导致大规模失业的说法提出了质疑。

Two months ago, I called bullshit on the AI jobs apocalypse narrative.

最近，萨姆·阿尔特曼、达里奥·阿莫迪等AI领域的领军人物也放缓了关于白领岗位大洗牌的预言。

More recently, Sam Altman, Dario Amodi, and other AI leaders pumped the brakes on their claims of a coming white collar bloodbath.

然而，这种过时的论调仍在传播，错误地把年轻人面临的就业困境归咎于AI。

The zombie narrative marches on, however, supporting the incorrect conclusion that AI is to blame for the bleak job market young people face.

但根据伦敦政经学院、牛津大学和纽约联储的最新研究，一旦考虑到远程办公的影响，AI的作用几乎就消失了。

But according to new research from LSE, Oxford, and the New York Fed, the AI effect nearly disappears when you control for remote work.

你孩子找不到工作，根本不是AI的错。

Translation, the reason your kid can't find a job isn't AI.

是你自己窝在沙发上不动。

It's your couch.

去看看我最近对这个话题的深度分析。

See my recent deep dive on this topic.

居家办公，跟我们社会接受的许多其他选择一样，正是我们针对年轻人的又一战线。

Work from home, like so many other choices our society embraces, is yet another front in our war on the young.

这场战争是我2024年TED演讲的主题，去年那场是全年播放量第一，每周更新。

That war was the subject of my 2024 TED Talk, which was the number one presentation last year, week flex.

可惜的是，这场战争还在继续。

Sadly, the war continues.

这周我们重播一期旧内容。

This week, we share a rerun.

《针对年轻人的战争》，原发布于2024年4月19日。

War on the Young, originally published 04/19/2024.

我是斯科特·加洛韦，欢迎收听《不仁不恶》。

I'm Scott Galloway, and this is No Mercy, No Malice.

我们真的爱自己的孩子吗？

Do we love our children?

嘴上说爱，可社会的所作所为却恰恰相反。

We say we do, but as a society, our actions suggest otherwise.

《对年轻人的战争》，由乔治·哈恩朗读。

War on the Young, as read by George Hahn.

这周我参加了TED 2024，庆祝这个标志性项目诞生四十周年。

This week, I spoke at TED twenty twenty four, the iconic program's fortieth anniversary event.

我在温哥华的舞台上，和鲁保罗、凯莎，还有两位天体物理学家同台演讲。

I joined RuPaul, Kesha, and two different astrophysicists on the stage in Vancouver.

主办方给了我十五分钟，我却用了十七分钟，翻完了四十七页幻灯片，讲清楚我认为美国面临的最大挑战。

I was given fifteen minutes and took seventeen to rifle through 47 slides, articulating what I believe is the greatest challenge facing The US.

不是贫富差距，不是气候变化，也不是中东战争，而是一个把这些问题全都串起来的危机——美国对年轻人的战争，一场相互毁灭的战争。

It's not inequality, climate change, or war in The Middle East, but an issue that threads these threats together, America's war on the young, a war of mutually assured destruction.

衡量一个社会是否成功的合理标准，是它如何对待孩子，不是看个别家庭怎么育儿，而是看那些负责防止公共资源悲剧的制度、激励机制和领导层是否有效。

A decent proxy for the success of a society is how it treats children, not how individuals parent, but the success of the structures, incentives, and leadership charged with preventing a tragedy of the commons.

简单来说，我们能回答一个最基本的问题吗？

In sum, can we answer a simple question?

我们真的爱自己的孩子吗？

Do we love our children?

在2024年的美国，这个问题的答案令人沮丧。

In 2024 America, the rejoinder is disheartening.

我们已经毁掉了维系美国社会的那份契约。

We've broken the social contract that binds America.

以前人们相信，只要努力工作、遵守规则，就能比父母过得更好。

Work hard, play by the rules, and you'll be better off than your parents were.

但这是美国历史上第一次，这句话不再成立。

For the first time in our nation's history, this is no longer true.

如今25岁的年轻人，收入比他们父母和祖父母同龄时还低，却背负着上一代人根本无法想象的助学贷款。

Today's 25 year olds make less than their parents and grandparents did at the same age, yet they carry student debt loads unimaginable to earlier generations.

最低工资和中位数工资都没跟上通胀和生产率的增长，而房价却远远超过了它们。

Neither the minimum nor median wage has kept pace with inflation or productivity gains, while housing costs have outpaced them.

关于儿童和年轻人福祉的数据令人震惊。

The statistics on children's and young adults' well-being are staggering.

年轻人对这一切心知肚明，社会契约的崩塌让他们感到愤怒和羞耻。

None of this is lost on young people, and the shattering of the social contract has left them feeling rage and shame.

超过五十五岁的美国人中，有一半表示他们为自己是美国人感到无比自豪。

Half of Americans older than 55 say they are extremely proud to be American.

而在十八到三十四岁的人群中，这个比例降到了百分之十八。

That number drops to 18% among eighteen to thirty four year olds.

这削弱了美国社会的免疫力，使得原本微小的裂痕都可能引发致命的连锁反应。

This weakens the immunity system of America, allowing minor cuts to US society to bring on deadly opportunistic infections.

就像你身边的人突然对你发火，表面上看是为了一件事，其实根本不是那回事。

Just as when someone in your life blows up at you, it's about the issue at hand, and it isn't.

尽管在社会正义问题上已经取得了显著进展，但美国年轻人的合理担忧仍会无缝转化为愤怒。

American youth's warranted concern on social justice issues, despite remarkable progress on all these issues, turns seamlessly into rage.

我们并不缺资源来提升年轻人的处境，像我们那一代人曾经拥有的机会，而是那些从二十世纪战后经济繁荣中获益最多的人，把梯子抽走了。

We don't lack the resources to level up young people and present the opportunities afforded my generation, but the cohorts who benefited most from the extraordinary postwar economic boom of the twentieth century have pulled the ladder up behind them.

1989年，40岁的成年人拥有家庭财富的12%，而70岁的人则拥有19%。

In 1989, adults 40 held 12% of household wealth, while those 70 held 19%.

如今，40岁的人只掌握着家庭财富的7%，70岁的人却控制着30%。

Today, those 40 command just 7% of household wealth, while those 70 control 30%.

高等教育是缩小代际差距最有效的途径。

Higher education is the most effective means of closing the generation gap.

但既得利益者人为限制了准入，把机会牢牢锁在富裕家庭手里，只给底层90%中少数几个特别出众的孩子留点缝隙，好让高等教育看起来没那么排外。

But the incumbents have artificially constrained access, sequestering opportunity largely to wealthy households peppered with a few freakishly remarkable kids from the lower 90% to smear Vaseline over the casting of higher ed.

顶尖学校总吹嘘自己的助学政策，强调中等收入家庭的学生学费很低甚至免费，但这只是障眼法。

Elite schools tout their financial aid, emphasizing that students with median household incomes pay little or no tuition, but it's a head fake.

对少数低收入学生多给点帮助，不过是用一层薄薄的墙纸盖住排他性的本质，而真正的目标应该是彻底消除这种排他。

Being more generous with a select few low income students only wallpapers over exclusivity when the goal should be to eliminate it.

我们只是重新洗牌了精英阶层。

We have simply reshuffled the elites.

半个世纪以来，哈佛本科生的规模一直维持在1600人，而它的捐赠基金却增长了近五倍。

Harvard's undergraduate class size has been static at 1,600 for half a century, while its endowment has grown nearly 500%.

当你收入涨了六倍，却故意不扩大招生，你就不再是公共服务者，而变成了一只香奈儿手袋。

When your top line revenue is up sixfold, but you purposefully do not increase production, you are no longer a public servant, but a Chanel bag.

个位数的录取率，根本就是一种虚荣的指标。

Single digit admissions rates are the ultimate vanity metric.

这些校长和捐款人聚会上吹嘘的东西，本该是让人羞愧的事。

Something deans and donors brag about at cocktail parties when they should be a mark of shame.

正如我之前提出的，我们应该给高等教育来个彻底的改革方案。

As I've proposed before, we should offer higher ed a grand bargain.

把原本用于补贴三分之一上过大学的美国人的钱，转用来增加新生名额、降低学费。

Redirect the money earmarked for bailing out the one third of America that has attended college to increasing freshman seats and reducing costs.

拜登政府提出的助学方案只是把肿瘤缩小了，却没有根治根本问题——教育越来越买不起、越来越难进。

The Biden administration's proposed student bailouts shrink the tumor but don't address the underlying cancer, declining affordability and accessibility.

我们把资本看得比努力还重要，这不对。

We have elevated capital over sweat, I.

资本，而非劳动。

E, labor.

公众对这套神话已经麻木了，而受益的正是那些制造这套神话的既得利益者。

The public is numb to this mythology, benefiting the incumbents who've created it.

2008年市场崩盘时，像我这样刚步入收入黄金期的年轻人，正好能以低价买入成长型股票。

Back in 2008, when the market crashed, young ish people, like me, coming into our prime income earning years, were able to buy growth stocks at low valuations.

我经济安全的基石，是用7美元买下亚马逊（如今涨到179美元），用7美元买下苹果（如今涨到167美元），还有用12.61美元买下奈飞（如今涨到11美元）。

The foundation of my economic security was buying Amazon at $7 (one hundred and seventy nine dollars today), and Apple at $7 (one hundred and sixty seven dollars today), and Netflix at $12.611 dollars today.

但从那以后，我们通过低企业税率和由年轻人买单的救助政策，给资产价格打了大量激素和强心针，把价格推得越来越高。

Ever since, however, we've inflated asset prices by pumping them full of steroids and stimulus using low corporate tax rates and bailouts that are financed on the backs of young people.

每一个50岁以上的美国人，都在对更年轻的人说：请用你的信用卡继续养着我。

Keep me rich on your credit card, said every American over the age of 50 to citizens younger than them.

自1974年以来，实际中位劳动收入上涨了40%，而标普500指数却暴涨了4000%。

In sum, real median income from labor is up 40% since 1974, while the S and P 500 is up 4000%.

我们通过税收政策保护了资本积累的财富，牺牲了劳动所得——因为税法明显偏向投资收益。

We've protected the wealth created by ownership at the expense of income earned by labor through the tax code, which favors gains from investments.

股票买卖的收益按较低的资本利得税率征税。

Gains from stock sales are taxes at lower capital gains rates.

房地产可以免税增值，出售之后还能把收益再投资到其他项目里。

Real estate holdings can appreciate tax free, and once sold, the gains can be rolled into another investment.

这又是一轮从劳动者、年轻人向资产所有者、老年人转移财富的过程。

Again, a series of transfers of wealth from earners, youth, to owners, seniors.

而征收上来的税，也越来越倾向于分配给最不需要这些钱的那一代人。

And what taxes are collected are increasingly redistributed to the generation who needs them least.

1985年，联邦政府人均在老年人身上的支出是儿童的三倍。

In 1985, the federal government spent three times more per capita on seniors than it did on kids.

到了2019年，这个比例已经涨到了八倍。

By 2019, that ratio has risen to eight times.

我们成功把老年人的贫困率从上世纪70年代的17%降到了现在的9%，这确实值得肯定。

We've cut senior poverty from 17% in the 1970s to 9% today, which is admirable.

但同一时期，儿童贫困率却从16%上升到了19%。

But child poverty has risen over that same period from 16% to 19%.

民主党的体制正在让我们失望，老年人投票选出老年人，而这些人又为自己争取更多利益。

The demo in Democratic is failing us, as seniors vote seniors into office who then vote themselves more money.

既没有年龄限制，也没有任期限制，加上现任议员的连任率超过九成，国会席位已经变成了终身职位。

With neither age limits nor term limits, and incumbent reelection rates over 90%, congressional seats have become lifetime appointments.

南希·佩洛西或许是国会里最精明的83岁老人，但她的时代已经过去了。

Nancy Pelosi may be the sharpest 83 year old in congress, but her time has passed.

她女儿出生在约翰逊总统时期，那时候不到三分之一的家庭有彩色电视机。

She has a daughter who was born during the Johnson administration when less than one third of homes had a color TV.

我们的领导层，真的能理解一个15岁女孩正被Meta推送极端节食信息，或者年轻男性沉迷手机赌博APP的危机吗？

Does our leadership really relate to the challenges facing a 15 year old girl being sent messages on extreme dieting by Meta or the budding addiction crisis of young men on phone based gambling apps?

我们需要新陈代谢来重新调整资源分配，但现在这些机制却被各种拖后腿的政策拖住了，代价高达数万亿美元。

We need churn to recalibrate and transfer wealth, but it's been dampened with retardants that cost trillions.

华盛顿已经成了《行尸走肉》和《黄金女孩》的混合体。

DC has become a cross between the walking dead and the golden girls.

那里的人把活着的年轻人看作是养料，而不是未来。

Its denizens see the living, young, as nutrition versus the future.

为了取悦克里特岛的米诺斯国王，古雅典每年都要献上七名少年和七名少女，供他关在宫殿地下的弥诺陶洛斯吞噬。

To appease king Minos of Crete, ancient Athens sacrificed seven young men and seven young women to the minotaur he kept under his palace.

后来，忒修斯杀死了这只怪物。

Then Theseus slew the minotaur.

如今在美国，我们正把整整一代人献给科技巨头们的弥诺陶洛斯，而我们的忒修斯——国会——却只能站在一旁发表演讲。

Today in America, we're offering an entire generation to the minotaurs of big tech, and our theseus, congress, can only stand by and make speeches.

自从社交媒体全天候缠上青少年以来，抑郁、自残、欺凌、孤独和肥胖问题急剧上升。

Teen depression and self harm, bullying, loneliness, and obesity have shot up since social media began haunting them twenty four seven.

自2017年以来，国会就儿童与社交媒体问题举行了40场听证会，却未通过任何实质性的解决方案。

Since 2017, Congress has held 40 hearings on children and social media and passed nothing to address the problem.

无论是民主党还是共和党，都提出过立法提案，比如设置年龄门槛、改革第230条——该条款让互联网平台免于大多数诉讼——但始终一事无成。

Democrats and Republicans have introduced legislation, including to age gate social and to reform section two thirty, which immunizes Internet platforms from most litigation, but nothing gets done.

在上一次《我们的问题何在》的戏剧性朗读会上，参议员迪克·德宾承认了失败。

At the last dramatic reading of What Ails Us, Senator Dick Durbin admitted to failure.

科技行业本身，并非我们当前困境的唯一罪魁。

Quote, the tech industry alone is not to blame for the situation we're in.

我们这些在国会的人，该好好照照镜子了。

Those of us in Congress need to look in the mirror.

这话没错。

Unquote.

我们必须让科技平台为其造成的伤害承担责任。

We need to make tech platforms liable for the harms they cause.

我们应该取消第230条对算法推送内容的免责保护。

We should eliminate section two thirty's liability shield for algorithmically elevated content.

言论自由不是免费的。

Freedom of speech isn't free.

在美国，60岁以上的人幸福感排在全球第10位，而30岁以下的人却只排在第62位。

The US is the tenth happiest country in the world for people 60 and the sixty second happiest for people 30.

年轻人经济上处于劣势，面临气候危机的威胁，又因我们政治体制的失灵而无人倾听。

Young people are economically disadvantaged, threatened by climate change, and voiceless thanks to our dysfunctional politics.

他们从小就被一种有毒的混合物操控着——原始的本能、中世纪的制度，还有近乎神力的技术。

And they've been manipulated from childhood by a toxic cocktail of paleolithic instincts, medieval institutions, and godlike technology.

我们破坏了社会契约，年轻一代不会再履行他们的那份责任。

We have broken the social contract, and younger generations aren't going to fulfill their end of it.

1993年，60%的30到34岁人群至少有一个孩子。

In 1993, sixty percent of thirty to thirty four year olds had at least one child.

如今，这个比例降到了27%。

Today, that number is twenty seven percent.

年轻人既不社交也不恋爱，后果将十分严重。

Young people aren't meeting or mating, and the consequences will be dire.

年轻人的劳动支撑着经济，他们的税收则用于支付老年人享受的服务。

Young people's labor powers the economy, and their taxes pay for the services consumed by old people.

如果没有强劲的青年就业，社会保障将破产，债务利息将吞噬联邦预算，国家也将崩溃。

Without robust youth employment, Social Security will go bankrupt, debt service will consume the federal budget, and the Commonwealth will collapse.

我们创造的未来如此无望，年轻人干脆选择退出。

We've created a future so unappealing, youth is opting out.

当权者会像八岁小孩一样甩手不管，拒绝承担责任。

The incumbents will throw their arms up like an eight year old who refuses to take responsibility.

所谓的复杂性只是个假象。

The plea of complexity is an illusion.

我们给年轻人带来的每一个问题，其实都是可以解决的。

Every problem we have levied on young people can be addressed.

最难的部分我们已经搞明白了——如何实现经济的持续增长，来支撑那些可能扭转局面的项目。

We have the hard part figured out, how to grow the economy at a sustained rate to pay for programs that might turn things around.

在经济、科技、社会政策和心理健康这几个领域，我们其实只需要尝试几项具体的措施和改进。

There are just a few programs and fixes we could try in economics, technology, social policy, and mental health.

我42岁才生了第一个孩子，那彻底改变了我的人生。

I had my first child at 42, and it changed my life.

我变得更有责任感，更专注，更关心未来，也更有同理心。

I became more responsible, focused, concerned about the future, and empathetic.

总的来说，我成了一个更好的美国人。

In sum, I became a better American.

孩子让我们变得更好。

Children make us better.

我们照顾自己的孩子。

We care for our kids.

但我们真的爱孩子吗？

But do we love children?

不知从什么时候起，整个社会都丢了方向。

Somewhere along the way, we lost the script as a society.

如果我们有资源解决这些问题——而我们确实有，NVIDIA在财报发布后短短五分钟就为经济增加了整整一万亿美元。

If we have the resources to address these issues, and we do, NVIDIA added a quarter of 1,000,000,000,000 to the economy in five minutes post earnings.

可我们却依然选择视而不见。

But continue to look the other way.

那我们就得问了：美国还值得投资吗？

Then we have to ask, is America worth investing in?

我们真的爱自己的孩子吗？

And do we really love our children?

生活如此丰盈。

Life is so rich.

大家好，我是瑞安·雷诺兹，来自Mint Mobile。

Hi, Ryan Reynolds here for Mint Mobile.

这个夏天想找本轻松的书读读吗？

Are you looking for a beach read this summer?

我建议你看看你的手机账单。

May I suggest your big wireless bill?

里面有悬疑、有神秘感，情感线稍微平淡点，但结局有个惊天反转——你突然发现，自己一直被多收钱了。

It's got suspense, mystery, a slightly flat emotional arc, and a shocking twist where you realize you've been overpaying the entire time.

不过好消息是，Mint Mobile的故事要好得多。

Fortunately, though, Mint's story is better.

所有套餐，每月15美元，不限流量。

Every plan, $15 a month, even unlimited.

就这么简单。

That's it.

完美结局。

Happy ending.

零烦恼

Zero tears.

立即前往 mintmobile.com/switch 试试看

Give it a try at mintmobile.com/switch.

需预付45美元享三个月，90美元享六个月，180美元享十二个月，相当于每月15美元，另加税费

Upfront payment of $45 for three months, $90 for six months, $180 for twelve month plan required, $15 per month equivalent, taxes and fees extra.

初始套餐流量必须超过50GB

Initial plan term only greater than 50 gigabytes.

网络繁忙时速度可能会下降

May slow when network is busy.

详见条款

See terms.

我们都得喝水，保持水分充足是让自己状态最好的最简单方法之一

We all have to drink water, and staying hydrated is one of the simplest ways to feel your best.

但说实话，你和水的关系到底怎么样？

But come on, how is your relationship with water really?

你喝够了吗？

Are you getting enough from it?

它让你感到满足吗？

Is it satisfying you?

还是说喝水已经变成了一种负担？

Or is drinking it becoming a chore?

这里有个小妙招，能让喝水更有趣。

Here's a tip to spice things up.

Hint水。

Hint water.

有西瓜、佐治亚桃子，甚至柠檬皮冻等多种美味风味，Hint水能让你爱上喝水。

With delectable flavors like watermelon, Georgia peach, even lemon zest freeze, Hint is water that will make you desire water.

不含糖，不加甜味剂，零卡路里。

No sugar, no sweeteners, no calories.

这正说明，选对了补水搭档，一切都会不一样。

It just goes to show, sometimes the right hydration partner changes everything.

试试Hint吧。

Try Hint.

可在drinkhint.com或全国各大门店购买。

Available at drinkhint.com and in stores nationwide.

本节目由Vetch宠物保险赞助。

Support for this show comes from Vetch Pet Insurance.

您养宠物吗？

Do you have a pet?

在美国，每六秒就有一位宠物主人接到一张超过一千美元的兽医账单，而且几乎都是突如其来的意外。

Every six seconds, a pet owner in The US gets hit with a vet bill of over $1,000, and it's almost always an unwelcome surprise.

这时候，Fetch宠物保险就派上用场了。

That's where Fetch pet insurance comes in.

Fetch是保障最全面的宠物保险。

Fetch is the most complete pet insurance.

最高可报销90%的兽医费用。

Get paid back up to 90% of vet bills.

你可以在美国和加拿大的任何一家兽医诊所使用这项保险。

You can use any vet in The US and Canada.

所有兽医都包含在保险网络内。

All vets are in network.

现在就去 fetchpet.com/save 获取你的免费报价吧。

Go to fetchpet.com/save right now for your free quote.

网址是 fetchpet.com/save。

That's fetchpet.com/save.