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本节目由Hostinger赞助。
Support for the show comes from Hostinger.
你有没有过一个商业或副业的想法，却从未真正启动过？
Ever had an idea for a business or side hustle but never actually launched it?
使用Hostinger，你可以将这个想法在几分钟内变为现实，而不是等待数周。
With Hostinger, you can turn that idea into something real in minutes instead of weeks.
Hostinger是一个一体化平台，将所有功能集中在一个地方。
Hostinger is an all in one platform that brings everything into one place.
你的域名、网站、电子邮件营销、AI工具和AI代理。
Your domain, website, email marketing, AI tools, and AI agents.
你可以通过简单的提示创建网站、在线商店和自定义应用，然后使用AI代理自动化繁琐任务，推动业务增长。
You can create websites, online stores, and custom apps with simple prompts, then use AI agents to automate tedious tasks and grow your business.
前往 hostinger.com/thepropg20，以每月不到3美元的价格将你的想法上线。
Go to hostinger.com/thepropg20 to bring your ideas online for under $3 a month.
使用促销代码 the prop g 20，还可额外享受20%折扣。
Use promo code the prop g 20 for an extra 20% off.
在一个平凡的早晨，巴布的一天突然变得
Once upon a mundane morning, Barb's day got
毫无预兆地忙碌起来。
busy without warning.
一位房地产经纪人需要一个开放日标识。
A realtor in need of an open house sign.
不。
No.
要50个。
50 of them.
而且要在九点前设计好。
And designed before nine.
我头疼。
My head hurts.
有什么强大的工具能帮上这个忙吗？
Any mighty tools to help with this punt?
巴布采取了行动。
Barb made her move.
她打开了Canva，进入了状态。
She opened Canva and got in the groove.
通过创建Canva模板，她制作了50块适合郊区街道的标牌。
Both creating Canva sheets create 50 signs fit for suburban streets.
一键完成。
Done in a click.
全部搞定。
All complete.
太棒了。
Sweet.
现在想象一下，当你在canva.com上发挥想象力时，你的梦想会变成什么样子。
Now imagine what your dreams can become when you put imagination to work at canva.com.
本节目由Odoo赞助。
Support for this show comes from Odoo.
经营企业已经够难了，为什么还要用十几个互不相通的应用程序让事情变得更复杂呢？
Running a business is hard enough, so why make it harder with a dozen different apps that don't talk to each other?
介绍Odoo。
Introducing Odoo.
这是你唯一需要的商业软件。
It's the only business software you'll ever need.
它是一个一体化、完全集成的平台，能让您的工作更轻松。
It's an all in one fully integrated platform that makes your work easier.
客户关系管理、会计、库存、电子商务等等。
CRM, accounting, inventory, ecommerce, and more.
最棒的是什么？
And the best part?
Odoo以远低于传统方案的成本，取代了多个昂贵的平台。
ODOO replaces multiple expensive platforms for a fraction of the cost.
这就是为什么成千上万家企业已经选择了Odoo。
That's why over thousands of businesses have made the switch.
那你为什么不呢？
So why not you?
前往 odoo.com 免费试用 Odoo。
Try Odoo for free at odoo.com.
就是 odoo.com。
That's odoo.com.
感谢您收听 Prop G 频道的《激烈温和派》。
Thanks for listening to Raging Moderates on the Prop G feed.
我们很快就要离开这个频道了，所以请务必在 Apple Podcasts、Spotify 以及其他平台订阅《激烈温和派》。
We'll be soon leaving this feed, so you're going to wanna subscribe to Raging Moderates on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and everywhere else.
您每天晚上都能收到新一期节目，包括您即将听到的这一期。
You'll get new episodes every weekday evening, including the episode that you're about to hear.
没错。
That's right.
《激烈温和派》的订阅用户每周五天都能听到杰西和我。
Raging Moderate subscribers get Jess and me five days a week.
如果你喜欢无广告的体验，现在就在YouTube或Substack上订阅。
Subscribe now on YouTube or Substack for ad free if you're into that.
好了，下面是今天的节目。
Now here's today's show.
我认为，目前的势头已经转变，伊朗正在获胜，这可以说是近年来地缘政治史上最不可思议的一次从胜利巅峰跌落的失败。
I would argue right now the momentum has shifted and that Iran is winning, and that this has been what I call an arguably the greatest snatching defeat from the jaws of victory in geo recent geopolitical history.
我的天啊。
So my gosh.
我们这场战争已经打了二十五六天了吧？
We are, what, twenty five, twenty six days into this war?
你们说话的样子，好像战争已经结束了。
It is you you guys are talking like it's over.
你们说话的样子，好像战争已经结束了。
You guys are talking like it's over,
而美国却夹着尾巴灰溜溜地撤退了。
and The US is walking away with its tail between its legs.
我们正在与伊朗交战。
We're at war with Iran.
我认为每个人基本上都知道这一点，即使不是每个人都因为政治原因愿意说出口。
I think everyone basically understands that even if not everyone for political reasons wants to say it out loud.
我们正在与伊朗交战。
We're in war with Iran.
这很有趣，因为你可以对俄罗斯说同样的话，但特朗普显然持不同意见，并且以行动表明他不同意，因为他认为自己的做法符合美国优先的原则。
It's funny because you could say the same thing about Russia and yet yet Trump clearly disagrees and has acted in ways that shows he disagrees for reasons that he thinks are aligned with America first.
当特朗普亲自告诉美国人，这场战争会很容易，会很快结束，不会有任何代价，别担心时，总统正在推动一种‘我们不需要耐心’的舆论导向。
And when Trump himself is telling the American people that this is gonna be easy, it's gonna be over, there's gonna be no cost, don't worry about it, the president is driving the messaging of we don't need to be patient.
我们不需要耐心，因为这场战争会很容易，而且会结束。
We don't need to because this war is gonna be easy, and it's gonna be out.
我们会搞定的。
We're gonna be done.
但他失败了。
And he failed.
欢迎来到《激进中间派》。
Welcome to Raging Moderates.
我是斯科特·加洛韦。
I'm Scott Galloway.
我是杰西卡·塔罗夫。
And I'm Jessica Tarlov.
所以我对这次节目真的很期待。
So I'm really excited about this.
今天，我们要做一点不一样的事情，我其实很喜欢皮尔斯·摩根，我也上过他的节目好几次。
Today, we're doing something a little bit different, and that is I actually really enjoy I like Pearce Morgan, and I've been on the show a few times.
但看完之后，有时候我真的想洗个澡。
But after watching it, sometimes I wanna shower.
同时，偶尔我会看CNN艾比·菲利普斯的节目，我觉得他们应该改名叫《我觉得自己变蠢了》，因为节目里通常请来一个人说些极其愚蠢的话，然后让一群三流进步派大为震惊。
And at the same time, occasionally, I watch CNN's show with Abby Phillips, which I think they should rename I feel stupider, where they basically have someone come on and say something really fucking stupid and then have a bunch of b league progressives get outraged.
天啊，我这里也掉进同样的陷阱了。
God, I'm falling into the same trap here.
总之，我想邀请两位有时观点相似、有时不同的嘉宾，进行一场深入的对话，特别是关于伊朗战争。
Anyways, I wanted to bring on two people who have sometimes similar views, sometimes don't, and have a really thoughtful conversation and especially about the war in Iran.
我想不出还有谁比他们更合适了，我不仅尊重他们，而且非常欣赏他们，甚至称他们为朋友。
And I couldn't think of anyone better or two people that I not only respect, but I I like a great deal and would call friends.
他们就是《Call Me Back》的主持人丹·塞诺尔，以及欧亚集团总裁伊恩·布雷默，当然，还有我们的搭档杰丝·塔洛夫。
And that is Dan Senor, our host of Call Me Back, and Ian Bremmer, President of the Eurasia Group, and obviously, partner in crime here, Jess Tarlov.
我们的目标很简单。
Our goal here is simple.
我们想拨开迷雾，弄清楚这场战争究竟发生了什么，它对美国、全球经济意味着什么，以及接下来会发生什么。
We wanna cut through the noise, figure out what actually is happening in this war, what it all means for The US, the global economy, and what and what comes next.
让我们先铺垫一下背景。
So let's set the table.
特朗普称，美国正在与伊朗进行非常有力的谈判，并推迟了潜在的打击行动，但伊朗否认任何谈判正在进行，并指责美国试图平息动荡的能源市场。
Trump says The US is in is in very strong talks with Iran and has delayed potential strikes, but Iran is denying that any negotiations are happening, accusing The US of trying to calm volatile energy markets.
我同意这种说法：故意制造假旗事件以便进行大规模内幕交易，但这只是其中一种理论。
I would agree sending false flags so we can engage in massive insider trading, but that's just just one theory.
与此同时，有报道称通过中间人进行间接的幕后沟通，包括贾里德·库什纳和史蒂夫·维特科夫参与其中，但这些沟通似乎仍处于初期阶段，重点在于缓和局势，而非达成解决。
At the same time, there are reports of indirect back channel communications through intermediaries, including Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff involved, but those appear to be early stage and focused on de escalation, not resolution.
今天还有新报道称，沙特王储穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼（MBS）一直在敦促特朗普继续战争，认为这是重塑该地区的机会。
There's also new reporting today that Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman MBS has been encouraging Trump to continue the war, seeing an opportunity to remake the region.
与此同时，多个战线的战斗持续升级，包括美国和以色列对伊朗的打击、伊朗的报复，以及黎巴嫩境内持续的冲突。
Meanwhile, the fighting continues to escalate across multiple fronts, US and Israeli strikes in Iran, Iranian retaliation, and ongoing conflict in Lebanon.
而全球的利害关系正在迅速上升。
And the global stakes are increasing quickly.
油价已经大幅上涨。
Oil prices have surged.
霍尔木兹海峡仍部分受阻，死亡人数现已超过两千人。
The Strait Of Hormuz is still partially blocked, and the death toll has now crossed two thousand.
我只是想提供一些背景信息。
I just tried to provide some context.
第一，我在哪些地方理解错了？你会补充哪些细微差别，或提供哪些不同的信息来为我们的对话奠定基础？
One, where do I have this wrong, and what nuance would you add or different pieces of information would you inject to try and set the table for our conversation?
伊恩，你来开头吧。
Ian, kick us off.
好的。
Sure.
首先，非常高兴能加入你们大家。
Well, first of all, very happy to join, all of you.
我觉得这是一个非常有深度的群体，而且都是我通常喜欢的人，这总是很愉快的。
I I also, think this is a a very thoughtful group, and, and people I generally like, which is always nice.
所以事情就容易多了。
So it made it easier.
所以，是的，我不知道我们在这里能达成多少共识，但这没关系。
So, yes, don't know how much we're gonna agree on here, but that's fine.
我认为，过去几天最大的新闻是特朗普单方面升级局势，他打算如果伊朗不开放海峡，就摧毁伊朗所有的民用能源生产和电网能力。
I I think that, the big news, as I see it over the last, couple of days, has been Trump's unilateral escalation, that he's gonna blow up, all of Iran's, civil, energy production capability, grid capability if they don't open the strait.
每个人都明白，这是一个极其灾难性的想法，因为伊朗很可能会摧毁海水淡化厂，引发海湾地区的大规模恐慌和逃离，而他们很可能真的会这么做。
And everyone understood that that was an utterly disastrous idea because the Iranians would likely be able to take out, for example, desalination plants that would cause mass panic and exodus in The Gulf and would be likely to do so.
伊朗人没有退让。
The Iranians did not back down.
他们没有打开海峡，而特朗普自己也说，好吧。
They did not open the strait, and Trump himself said, okay.
我不打算那么做。
I'm not gonna do that.
所以这可以说是最大的新闻。
So that that's kind of the big news.
那就是找到一个退出的途径吗？
Is that finding a an off ramp?
不是。
No.
但这无疑是特朗普首次认识到，全面升级可能会给他带来比他愿意承受的更大危险和更强烈的反弹。
But it certainly is recognition for the first time by Trump that full on straight escalation is probably gonna cause greater danger for him than he wants to experience, greater backlash.
看吧。
Look.
沙特人肯定是这样，我认为阿联酋也是如此，他们越来越做好了准备，不仅希望美国不要停手，还希望美国继续削弱伊朗的能力。但他们一直在讨论是否要亲自直接参与这场战争。
The Saudis definitely, and I think the Emiratis too, they they are increasingly prepared, not just do they want The United States not to stop, but to continue to degrade Iranian capabilities, But but they've been having conversations about getting directly involved in the war themselves.
沙特人已经参与了战斗。
The Saudi's involved in the fighting.
阿联酋可能正在争夺伊朗和阿联酋之间的一些有争议的岛屿。
The UAE may be taking a couple contested islands between Iran and and The UAE.
这两件事在未来几周内都有可能发生。
That that's that both of those things might happen over over the coming weeks.
这和阿联酋与沙特说‘我们希望你们全面出击，占领霍尔木兹海峡并推翻政权’是不同的。
That's different from The UAE and the Saudi saying, we want you to go full on take the oil in Karg Island regime change.
我没有听到这样的说法。
I'm not I'm not hearing that.
我听到的，特别是强调要确保摧毁伊朗的所有弹道导弹能力。
I'm hearing, particularly, make sure you get the ballistic missile capabilities, all of them.
你知道的？
You know?
确保你对核能力采取一些措施。
Make sure you do something about the nuclear capabilities.
比如，解决这个问题。
Like, deal with that.
我们不希望每隔几个月就得回头再谈这个问题，因为这对我们的威胁太大了。
Like, don't we don't wanna have to get back, keep getting back to this every few months because this is very vulnerable for us.
我还要说，在川普阵营里，这种战争不仅在他支持者中越来越不受欢迎，虽然仍有一定支持，而且他现在也从内部听到一些声音，说：嘿。
Now I will also say that in Trumplandia, not only is this kind of war becoming more unpopular among his base, though it's still over it's still unbalanced popular, but it's also I mean, he is now hearing from people internally that, hey.
让我们暂停一下。
Let's let's really let's have a pause.
让我们暂停一下。
Let's have a pause.
据我了解，JD万斯正在向特朗普提出为期三十天的停火建议。
Like, JD Vance, my understanding, is bringing a thirty day pause suggestion to Trump.
我们不妨看看，在我们与伊朗人的对话中，双方是否都能接受这一点。
The thing let's let's see if, like, in the in the conversations we're having with the Iranians, let's see if we'd both accept that.
然后我们可以暂时安抚一下市场。
And then we can talk the markets down for a while.
顺便说一下，你所考虑的所有军事选项，我们都没有准备好地面部队，而且最晚也要到四月份才能从旧金山部署到位。
And by the way, we don't have the ground troops ready to go for all of the military options you're thinking about, and they won't be in place until, like, April anyway, the latest being sent from San Francisco.
我不确定特朗普会如何回应这一点，但既然这样的对话正在发生，就说明至少目前还有空间可以缓和局势，尽管我们离可能的停火还非常非常遥远。
And and I I don't I have I have no idea how Trump's gonna respond to that, but the fact that that conversation is happening implies that there is more scope for at least calming this down for now even if we're very, very far from a potential ceasefire.
所以我认为，我现在正在密切关注这一点。
So I think that that's what I'm watching very carefully now.
他们最终是否会在巴基斯坦展开对话，这一点目前看来越来越有可能，以及谁会直接参与。
Whether they end up having conversations in Pakistan, which look increasingly likely at this point, who is directly involved.
我猜测会是外交部长，而不是‘Call Me Back’。
I suspect it would be the foreign minister, not Call Me Back.
他亲自前往并离开的风险太高了。
It'd be too risky for him to actually go and leave.
但我们拭目以待。
But we'll see.
我们看看事情会如何发展。
We'll see where it goes.
事情进展确实非常迅速，显然，对全球经济的风险非常高，远高于过去几周人们所预估的，而特朗普将不得不
It is definitely moving very fast, and, obviously, the danger for the global economy is really high, a lot higher than I think people have been presuming over the past weeks, and Trump is gonna have
应对这一点。
to deal with that.
他将不得不
He's gonna have
应对这些后果。
to deal with the consequences.
这将从国内角度来看。
This is gonna be from a domestic perspective.
我认为，无论未来几天和几周的结果如何，只要没有政权更迭，而美国人将在国内承担经济代价，这都将不受欢迎。
This is going to be, I think, unpopular irrespective of what the outcome is in the next few days and weeks, given that there isn't regime change and Americans are gonna be paying for it, economically at home.
嗯，我一直在看到与伊恩类似的报告，关于正在向特朗普总统提出的各种提案。
Well, I've been seeing similar reports as Ian on different proposals that are being presented to president Trump.
我对这些报道持谨慎态度，建议保持健康的怀疑精神。
I would caution counsel healthy skepticism about any of these reports.
我只是想说，我并不是在否认有人向特朗普提出了不同的方案。
Simply to say, I'm I'm not saying there aren't different people proposing different things to Trump.
但如果我们对特朗普有什么了解的话，那就是他经常与很多人交谈。
But if we've learned anything about Trump is that he talks to a lot of people.
他和谁交谈、对方提出了什么建议，通常并不能反映他真正的方向。
And who he talks to and what they're proposing is typically not a a signal as to where he is heading.
他总是让人捉摸不透。
He keeps everyone guessing.
他始终保持多种选择的可能性。
He maintains optionality.
你还记得2025年6月，在对福特ow发动行动前两周，他还在进行深入谈判，当时媒体广泛猜测他想要与伊朗政权达成某种协议，结果突然之间——
You'll recall in June 2025, two weeks before the the operation against Fordow, He was deep in negotiations, and there was all this press speculation that that what he wanted was some kind of negotiated out with with the regime in Iran, and then boom.
他发动了午夜突袭行动。
He joined the mid operation midnight hammer.
快进到二月。
Fast forward to February.
谈判正在进行。
Negotiations are going on.
库什纳和惠特科夫都在场。
Kushner and Whitcoff are there.
阿曼外交部长说有一些事情正在发生，然后就这样了。
The Omani foreign minister says there's stuff happening, and then there we go.
二月、六月，爆发了巨大的愤怒。
February, June, epic fury.
所以我认为，试图解读特朗普在谈判、暂停谈判、再重启谈判之间的策略。
So I I think reading into what game Trump is playing with negotiations on, negotiations off, negotiations on again.
有这个人听到他说过这话。
This person heard him say this.
这个人正在转述这一点。
This person's presenting that.
谁知道呢？
Who knows?
特朗普身边大约有四到五个人真正知道发生了什么。
There are about four to five people in Trump's orbit that actually know what's going on.
我觉得这个圈子可能比这还要小。
And I would say maybe that circle's even smaller than that.
所以这是第一点。
So that's that's the first thing.
第二点我想说的是，斯科特，你就像在努力铺垫局面。
The second thing I would say is, you know, Scott, you are, like, kinda you try to set the table.
我们现在在哪？
Like, where are we?
嗯。
Mhmm.
我们现在知道什么，和一周前、两周前、一个月前相比又有什么不同？
What do we know now versus what we knew a week ago, two weeks ago, a month ago?
我认为有两个重大进展，伊恩，关于海湾国家的情况及其对结束这场冲突而非暂停或留下一个残缺政权的兴趣，这是一个非常值得关注的动向。
I would say the two big developments I mean, Ian, I the what's going on with the Gulf States and their interest in what appears to be finishing this and not pausing and not leaving a wounded regime in place is a very interesting development.
另外两点是，我认为在美国和西方，从右翼到左翼的分析人士和政治人物之间曾达成共识。
The two others is I think there was a consensus among analysts, among political players in The US and in the West from right to left.
在战争爆发前，各方一致认为伊朗拥有核野心，有发展核武器的意图。
There was a consensus that Iran had nuclear ambitions before this war, had nuclear weapons ambitions before this war.
各方也一致认为，伊朗是导致许多美国人和西方其他人员流血事件的幕后黑手。
There was a consensus that Iran is behind a lot of bloodshed of Americans and others in the West.
对吧？
Right?
没有人对此提出异议。
There's no no one disputed that.
我们如何应对、如何限制、如何威慑伊朗，这些是可以讨论的。
How we how we dealt with that, how we restrained them, how we deterred them, that was open for debate.
但伊朗是否应对大量无辜美国人、美军士兵的遇害负责，这一点从未被质疑过。
But whether or not Iran was responsible for the slaughtering of a lot of innocent Americans, Americans in uniform, innocence was not disputed.
我认为在伊朗的非核军事能力方面并没有达成共识。
I do think there was not a consensus on Iran's non nuclear military capabilities.
我认为人们说，伊朗声称他们的弹道导弹射程不超过2000公里。
I think people said, oh, Iran is saying the range of their projectiles, their missiles, can't go farther than 2,000 kilometers.
他们一直这么声称，而我们只是需要持续关注他们，继续与他们达成类似伊核协议的安排，相信他们不会突破这些限制。
That's what they've said, and we and we just kind of gotta stay on top of them and continue to reach, you know, JCPOA like accommodations with them, and they they won't spring out of that.
而我们在这场战争中了解到的是，他们一直在撒谎，而且是严重的撒谎，我认为这并不该让人惊讶。
And what we've learned in this war is they have been lying, like, really lying, and that is I think it shouldn't be a surprise.
但这对很多人来说却是个意外。
It's a surprise to many.
当他们袭击迪戈加西亚时，人们才如梦初醒：等等，不对劲。
When they hit Diego Garcia, there's a wake up call that, wait a minute.
他们一直隐瞒并谎报自己的能力。
They have capabilities that they've been hiding and lying about.
这些能力未必关乎核武器，但足以对地区和西方利益构成恐怖威胁。
They're not necessarily about their nuclear weapons capability, but they can just be as terrorizing to the region and to Western interests.
我认为这又是一个全新的警醒。
And I think that is a whole new wake up call.
如果我们进入谈判，与伊核协议不同，非核武器能力将成为谈判的重要组成部分。
And if we head into negotiations, unlike the JCPOA, you can expect that the the non nuclear weapons capabilities will be a big part of the negotiation.
你们刚才说的非常有趣，非常感谢你们能加入我们。
Super interesting what you guys have said so far, and so thankful that you could join us.
我知道大家的日程都很紧张。
I know schedules are crazy.
我想谈谈什么是成功，因为斯科特和我过去一个月一直在讨论这个问题，努力为可能出现的好结果留出空间。
I want to talk about what success looks like, because Scott and I have been obviously talking about this over the course of the last month and trying to make room for the potential of what could go right.
我的政治立场非常明确。
And, you know, my politics are very clear.
我并不是唐纳德·特朗普的粉丝，这次感觉仓促匆忙，关于内塔尼亚胡施压特朗普按他的日程行事、而非最符合美国利益的种种报道，都蒙蔽了我的判断。
I I am not, you know, a big fan of Donald Trump, and this felt, you know, rushed, and all the reporting around the pressure that Netanyahu was putting on Trump to do it on his schedule versus what might have been best for The United States, etcetera, was clouding my vision of this.
所以你们能谈谈，所谓‘任务完成’——不是布什那种意义上的，而是真正让我们感到成功的模样吗？
So could you guys talk a little bit about what mission accomplished, not necessarily in the bush sense, but really a a feeling of success for us looks like.
并且平息那些声称或强化——如果你认同的话——这种观点的人。
And quiet those, I guess, who are saying or maybe amplify if if that's what you agree with.
那些认为我们不可能真正削弱他们能力的人，认为这种威胁会再次出现，我们必须反复面对这场噩梦，或者像你提到的，丹，他们将在一两年内重新拥有弹道导弹能力。
Those that are saying there is no way that we can actually degrade their capabilities, that this won't crop up again, and we'll this will have to be a recurring nightmare that we come back, or they will, to your point, Dan, have these ballistic missile capabilities again in a year or two.
然后，当我们回家时，要么不得不重返战场，要么就再次把海湾伙伴留在一团乱局中。
And then, you know, we're back home and either have to go back or we leave our partners in The Gulf, with a huge mess again.
我认为，以色列领导层和美国领导层对什么是成功有着不同的衡量标准，杰丝。
I think that the Israeli leadership and the American leadership have two different measures of what is success, Jess.
应该关注什么？
What should be the focus?
两者有一些重叠，但他们对成功的定义确实不同，也就是说，我认为以色列的经验是，伊朗一直是对以色列、对地区、对西方、对世界的威胁，与这个政权无法进行谈判。
There are some overlap, but but they do have two different measures of success, which is to say, I think Israel's experience is the Iran has been a menace to Israel, to the region, to the West, to the world, and there's no negotiating with this regime.
这个政权必须被推翻。
The regime has to go.
至于它如何被推翻、以及由什么取代它，这仍有待讨论，显然也是以色列领导层内部正在探讨的问题。
Now what how it goes and what replaces it is open for debate and, obviously, is a is a subject of discussion within Israeli leadership.
以色列领导层并没有明确表示成功或失败是以政权更迭为标准，但事实上他们正是这么想的。
And the Israeli leadership is not explicitly saying success or failure is determined based on regime change, but that's effectively where they're at.
而美国领导层，我认为尤其是特朗普，如果不需要一场漫长拖沓的数月战争，他是愿意接受这种可能性的。
Whereas the American leadership, I think Trump in particular, is open to that if it doesn't require a long drawn out multi month war.
但他也对一种类似委内瑞拉的模式持开放态度。
But he's also open to a version of Venezuela.
对吧？
Right?
德莉西·罗德里格斯。
Delcy Rodriguez.
我们的德莉西·罗德里格斯是谁？
Who's our Delcy Rodriguez?
这并不是传统意义上的政权更迭，而是像尼尔·弗格森所提出的术语那样，是政权的调整。
You know, it's not it's not regime change as, instead as as Neil Ferguson has coined the term, it's regime alteration.
我们只是将政权调整为一个更容易掌控、更便于应对的版本。
We just alter the regime into one that's much more manageable and that we can deal with.
所以，你知道，我认为如果特朗普能实现这一点，而到目前为止，这似乎比许多人想象的要难得多。
So that's you know, I I I think if Trump could accomplish that and I think so far it appears it's gonna be harder to do that than many thought.
但如果特朗普能实现这一点，那就是成功。
But if Trump could accomplish that, that would be success.
我认为美国和以色列的重叠之处在于，正如你所提到的，仅仅是削弱其能力。
Where I think there's overlap between The US and Israel is, as you suggested, just the degradation of the capabilities.
我们可能在最终结果上不完全一致，但至少要确保从这场战争中在德黑兰出现的任何——无论是政权还是后政权——都完全不具备制造混乱的能力。
We may not agree entirely on the outcome, but let's just make sure that whatever Frankenstein emerges from this war in Tehran in the in in the form of a regime or a post regime, they simply don't have the capabilities to wreak havoc.
所以，简单来说，这正是他们一直在做的。
So let's just literally which is what they've been doing.
他们一直在摧毁伊朗的海军能力。
They've been taking out their navy capable naval capabilities.
他们一直在消除伊朗的大量进攻能力和防御能力。
They've been taking care of a lot of their offensive capabilities and their defensive capabilities.
而如今，他们真正试图做的，尤其是以色列，是摧毁支撑导弹和无人机生产的整个工业基础。
And, really, now the whole what they're trying to do, especially the Israelis, is taking out the whole industrial base that supports the production of missiles and drones.
因此，系统性地摧毁伊朗的威胁性武器基础设施，即使没有发生政权更迭，变成一个更具建设性和负责任的政府，至少在战争结束时，任何现存的政权都无法对美国和以色列构成威胁。
And so just systematically take out the menacing weapons infrastructure of Iran so that even if there is not regime change to something much more constructive and responsible, at least whatever exists will not be able to pose the threat to The US and Israel at the end of this.
顺便说一下，在这方面，我们可以聊聊直接行动。
And by the way, on that front, we can get into conversation about the straight.
但在这一点上，我认为他们已经取得了很大进展。
And on that front, though, I do think they're making a lot of progress.
我认为特朗普现在正在进行的这些谈判，我会再等几天。
And I and I think Trump doing what he's doing right now with this negotiations, I'll wait a few days.
这为他赢得了时间。
It's buying him time.
如果你看看目前每天发生的军事行动，实际上，针对伊朗武器生产工业基础的打击仍在继续，即使特朗普正在谈论谈判。
If you look at the military operations that are happening day to day, right now, it's these the the taking out the industrial base that supports weapons production in Iran is still happening right now even though Trump is talking about negotiations.
你认为这会是一个持久的解决方案吗？还是说几年后，当神权政体再次出现时，问题又会回来？
Do you think that that can be an enduring solution, or is it a question of in a few years when you have a theocracy?
我的意思是，德尔西·罗德里格斯可不是一位大阿亚图拉。
I mean, Delsy Rodriguez isn't an Ayatollah.
对吧？
Right?
她就是一个小女孩。
She's she's just a girl.
哦，一个
Oh, one
天。
day.
是的。
Yeah.
给她点时间。
Give her time.
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
她只在那里待了，你知道的，几个月。
She's only been in there for, you know, a couple months.
但这种情况会不会像中东地区发生的许多事情一样，再次重复呢？
But is this doomed to repeat as so much of what goes on in The Middle East?
你知道，以色列人有一个术语叫‘割草’，这基本上概括了他们在过去几十年里对哈马斯的政策核心——讽刺的是，这一切都发生在10月7日之前。
You know, the Israelis have this term that they use, mowing the lawn, which has basically been the the essence of their policy with regard to Hamas, ironically, over the last couple decades, which is they are never gonna get this is all pre October 7.
他们永远不会与哈马斯打一场漫长、正面、全面的战争，试图彻底消灭哈马斯。
They're never get gonna get into a long drawn out full frontal war against Hamas and try to eliminate Hamas.
显然，这种态度在10月7日之后发生了变化。
Obviously, that attitude changed after October 7.
所以，从大约2005年到2023年2月，以色列一直在‘割草’。
So everything between basically 2,005 and February 2023 was Israel mowing the lawn.
每隔几年，比如2008年、2012年、2018年、2021年。
Every couple years, the 2008, 2012, 2018, 2021.
而且，每隔几年，以色列和哈马斯之间就会发生这些小规模冲突。
And, I mean, every couple years, there were these skirmishes between Israel and and Hamas.
在这些行动结束时，以色列通常会说，非正式地讲，我们已经割过草了。
And what Israel would say at the end of any of these operations is I mean, the the unofficially, they'd say we've mowed the lawn.
他们一直在削弱对方的能力。
They've been degrading their capabilities.
对方可以重建能力，然后我们又会迎来另一场小规模冲突。
They can rebuild their capabilities, and we'll have another skirmish again.
我感到担忧，我认为这正是你问题所指向的方向——我们正朝着伊朗的局势发展。
I'm concerned, and I think this is where you're going with your question, that that is where we're heading with Iran.
是的。
Yes.
这总比什么都不做要好吧？
So is it better than doing nothing?
是的。
Yes.
如果我们能严重削弱他们的能力，然后几年后以色列或美国或两者再次介入，只要这能带来某种程度的平静，抑制伊朗威胁地区和我们的能力，那总比什么都不做要好。
If we seriously degrade their capabilities and then Israel or The US or both have to go back in in a few years, well, if that gets us some semblance of quiet and and and and and it sort of rains in Iran's ability to to to threaten the region and threaten us, that's better than doing nothing.
但我确实担心，正如你所说，这会让我们再次陷入以色列或美国或两者必须不断‘修剪草坪’的境地。
But I do worry that it's gonna, to your point, wind us up back in a situation where Israel or The US or both have to keep mowing the line.
丹关注的是到目前为止对美国和以色列最有利的方面，
Dan is focusing on the part of this that is going the best for The US and Israel so far,
那就是
which is
伊朗的常规军事能力正被显著削弱，非常显著地削弱。
that the military, the conventional military capabilities of Iran are being very significantly degraded, very significantly.
海军能力、弹道导弹能力。
The naval capabilities, the ballistic missile capabilities.
他们实际拥有的能力超过了美国当初的估计。
They had more than the Americans had believed going in.
虽然花费的时间比他们预想的要长，但他们确实在取得进展。
It's taken longer time than they thought it was going to take, but they are making that progress.
这是这件事中积极的一面。
That is the positive side of this.
你不能就此止步。
You cannot stop there.
对吧？
Right?
我想补充两点，这让我对当前发生的事以及未来的发展感到不那么乐观。
I want I wanna add two components here that make me feel less less upbeat about what is happening and what the future will bring.
第一点是，尽管如今美国和以色列对政权更迭的看法不同，但特朗普当初曾希望事情会走向政权更迭。
The first component is that while it is true that today, The United States and Israel have different thoughts on regime change, Trump was kinda hopeful that this was gonna go to regime change.
我的意思是，是他曾说，我们会拯救伊朗人民。
I mean, he was the one that said, you know, we're gonna rescue the Iranian people.
是他最初说的：伊朗人民，推翻你们的政府。
He was the one that said at the beginning, Iranian people take your government.
但几天前，他又说：我理解为什么他们不推翻政府，因为那样他们会遭到毁灭。
And then a few days ago, he's like, well, I understand why they're not taking their government because they're gonna get blown up.
这两者是完全不同的。
Those are two different things.
对吧？
Right?
因此，更可能的情况是，将继续执政的政权是一个残暴、压迫性的政权，而在战争前、战争期间和战争后承受最大痛苦的，仍然是伊朗人民，这是一场失败。
So the fact that it is more likely than not that the regime that is going to continue to be in place is a brutal, repressive regime and that the people that will suffer the most before the war, during the war, and after the war will continue to be the Iranian people is a loss.
也许你知道，我不是说很多美国人或以色列人很在意这一点，但我们应该在意，这很重要。
Maybe you know, I'm not saying a lot of Americans or Israelis care that much about that, but we should, and it matters.
所以，这是第一个方面。
So that's one component.
第二个方面，也就是这个问题的另一面是，尽管伊朗的常规军事能力已大幅削弱，但其经济能力，尤其是在对西方的杠杆和地位方面，却比以前高得多，而且他们通过出口石油赚了更多钱。
The the second component, which is the other side of this, is that although Iran's conventional military capabilities have been significantly degraded, Their economic capabilities today are a lot higher, in terms of leverage and position over the straight than it was before, and they're making a lot more money from exporting oil.
这来自同一个特朗普政府，他们曾反复抨击奥巴马政府，说他们在伊核协议中获得了大笔现金。
Now this is coming from the same Trump administration that hammered repeatedly the Obama administration for the pallets of cash that they were able to get as part of the JCPOA, the Iranian deal.
而现在，由于特朗普如此专注于确保尽可能多地输出石油，他允许伊朗以高于中国买家的溢价向非中国来源出售石油。
And now because Trump is so focused on we need to make sure that we get as more much oil out as possible, he's allowing the Iranians to sell their oil at a premium to non Chinese sources.
印度刚刚同意了。
The Indians just agreed.
雷力公司以每桶7美元的溢价购买了这些石油，价格从110美元涨到120美元。
Reliance just bought that oil at a $7 premium, 110 to a $120 a barrel.
据估计，伊朗因此将赚取大约140亿美元。
And the Iranians the estimates are they're gonna end up making, like, $14,000,000,000 on the back of that.
即使这些被解除的制裁在30天内重新生效，也没有理由假设同一政权会因此改变。
And that's if the if the sanctions that have been lifted snap back in thirty days, and no presumption that's actually going to happen with the same regime.
我们知道他们可能会如何使用这笔钱，因为这个政权并未被推翻。
And we know what they're likely to do with the money because the regime hasn't been removed.
所以这是一个真正的问题。
And so that's a that's a real problem.
我认为事态的发展方向是，特朗普在国际上单方面采取了两次重大过度行为。
Where I see this going is I think there have been two big places of major overreach that have been unilaterally brought by Trump on the Americans internationally.
第一是所谓的‘解放日’，针对中国。
The first was Liberation Day, China.
美国利用IEPO对全球所有国家加征关税，而正如最高法院所显示的，他们实际上并没有这个法律权利。
The United States puts tariffs on every country around the world using IEPO, which they didn't really have the legal right to do as we've seen from the Supreme Court.
许多国家对此非常担忧，纷纷退让，对特朗普先生说：我们能做些什么？
A lot of countries, very, very concerned about that, backed down, said, mister Trump, what can we do?
我们愿意和您达成协议。
We'll cut a deal with you.
中国人却不这样。
The Chinese don't.
中国人说：实际上，我们拥有真正的筹码。
The Chinese say, actually, we've got real leverage.
我们的筹码，尽管你们的经济体量比我们大，但关键矿物才是我们的核心优势。
Our leverage even though you're a bigger economy than we are, our leverage is critical minerals.
我们愿意承受痛苦，因为我们能比你坚持得更久。
And we will take the pain because we can outlast you.
我们比你们更有耐心。
We are more patient than you are.
我们能承受的痛苦比你们多。
We can take more pain than you will.
因此，我们将迫使你们坐到谈判桌前，并获得更大的影响力。
And as a consequence, we're gonna force you to the table, and we're gonna have more influence.
我亲眼见过这种情况发生。
And I've seen that happen.
在过去一年里，中国在与美国的双边交往中获得了更多筹码，因为中国向美国人展示了他们比美国或特朗普更能承受长期的经济痛苦。
Over the last year, China has more leverage with The United States now in bilateral dealing because the Chinese showed the Americans that they are more prepared to take long term economic pain than the Americans are or than Trump is.
我认为伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡所采取的行动，正是类似的策略。
And I think that what the Iranians have just shown on the Strait Of Hormuz is a similar strategy.
规模小得多，但伊朗说的是：是的。
Much smaller scale, but Iran is saying, yeah.
我们在能力上远不如你们。
We're a lot less capable than you are.
从军事上讲，你们刚刚把我们炸了个粉碎。
Militarily, you just blew blew us up.
但我们相信我们能比你们撑得更久，而你们最终会撑不住，因为我们能制造更多痛苦，而且我们能承受你们杀死的每一个人。
But we believe that we can outlast you and that you're gonna taco eventually because we can cause more pain, and we can handle all the people you're killing.
我们可以应对所有常规军事打击，因为我们能够阻止这些油轮通过。
We can handle all the conventional military strikes because we can stop these tankers from going through.
我们现在还不知道特朗普会如何应对这一点。
Now we don't yet know how Trump is gonna respond to that.
我们不知道。
We don't know.
也许他会动用这些部队，占领海峡沿岸地区和岛屿，最终夺取霍尔木兹岛。
Maybe he's gonna use these troops, and he's gonna take coastal areas and take islands in the strait and eventually take Karg Island.
也许这对他会奏效。
And maybe that'll work for him.
也许在中长期，美国会像控制委内瑞拉一样控制伊朗的石油和海峡。
Maybe maybe in the medium to long term, The US will control Iran's oil and the strait the way they control Venezuela.
也许这正是特朗普想要的。
Maybe that's what Trump wants.
但这极其危险。
But that's enormously risky.
这可能行不通。
It might not work.
这将在经济上付出巨大代价，并会导致更多美国人丧生。
It'll cost immensely economically, and it's gonna lead to a lot more Americans getting killed.
他会做出决定。
He'll make the decision.
这是特朗普的决定。
It's Trump's decision.
正如丹所说，没人知道。
Nobody knows, as Dan said.
但他也可能退让。
But he also might back down.
我认为他很可能退让，就像他对中国所做的那样，因为他明白，最终宣布胜利比这一切后续发展要好。
And I think it's wholly plausible that he will back down as he has with the Chinese because he understands that ultimately declaring a win is better than what ends up following from all this.
我并没有强烈的看法，我当然没有水晶球，我完全同意丹的观点，即特朗普在这事上始终独断独行。
I I don't have a strong I I certainly don't have a crystal ball, and I agree completely with Dan that ultimately Trump is keeping his own counsel on this.
这不会是JD、马尔科或拉德克利夫进来告诉他或建议的内容。
It's not gonna be what JD or Marco or Radcliffe come in and tell him or suggest.
他们提出的建议只是他们向自己团队声称将要提出的建议中的一部分，因为对特朗普来说，他们总是说：‘好的，长官。’
And and what they suggest will only be a piece of what they're telling their people they're gonna suggest because with Trump, they're like, yes, sir.
您要我们多高，长官？
How high, sir?
但我确实担心，尽管伊朗的能力已严重受损，但随着我们从这一切中走出来，仍会有一些重大问题持续存在。
But but I do worry that even though Iran's capabilities have been seriously degraded, there are other big issues that will that will persist on the back of where we are where we're likely to be coming out of all of this.
所以，针对伊恩的几点回应。
So just sort of couple things in response to Ian.
首先，他刚才提到了，您也再次提到了地面部队的部署。
One, he mentioned it a sec and you mentioned a second time this the deployment of ground forces.
我只是说，或者说是部队。
I just or troops.
我只是想为观众明确一下，当我们提到这些部队时，您和我具体指的是什么。
I just think we should establish just for the for the audience what you and I are talking about when we refer to these troops.
因为我们觉得现在人们听到这个，就会想到伊拉克，比如2003年、2004年及之后的情况，但其实并不是那样。
We because I think people hear this now, and they think Iraq, you know, 2003, 2004 and beyond, and it is not that.
那不是一回事。
It is not that.
对吧？
Right?
说的是总共七千名士兵。
Talking about 7,000 troops total.
对吧？
Right?
是的。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
没错。
Exactly.
所以在伊拉克战争爆发前，我们在该地区拥有的海军和空中力量资产，与现在为这场战争部署的规模相当。
So so in the lead up to the Iraq war, we had the equivalent of the naval and air power assets that we have now in the region for this war.
但在伊拉克战争爆发前，我们还拥有二十五万兵力。
But the one other thing we had in the lead up to the Iraq war was a quarter of a million troops.
我们现在没有这么多兵力，对吧？
We do not have that Right.
在该地区没有，而且这样做是明智的。
In the region and and wisely so, by the way.
伊朗的面积大约是伊拉克的四倍，人口也超过伊拉克的两倍。
Iran is about four times the size of of Iraq, and it's about, you know, more than double the size in terms of population.
伊朗的人口是伊拉克的两倍多。
Iran's population is more than double the size of Iraq's.
所以我们不会派兵去占领伊朗。
So we're not sending troops to occupy Iran.
可能会有一些有针对性的行动，比如海军远征部队，可能会部署在沿海地区，以应对无人机、快艇和水雷对油轮的袭击。
What there there may be some targeted operation, the targeted operations, like the marine expeditionary force that are is gonna probably wind up there on the on the coast there to deal with the the hits on the tankers by the drones and these boats and the mines.
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所以这是非常有针对性的，人数很少。
So it's very targeted, small number.
我不是说这没有风险。
I'm not saying it's not a risk.
这并不是一种升级行为。
It's not a form of escalation.
当然，正如伊恩所说，即使部署的总兵力较少，仍然存在生命危险，但这绝不是一场大规模地面行动。
And, obviously, as Ian said, there's a risk to lives even if the total number of forces deployed is smaller, but it is not some massive ground operation.
这是第一点。
That's the first thing.
第二点，伊朗人民在过去几十年的各个时期都曾勇敢地反抗这个政权，而我们在西方对此关注不够，他们理应获得极大的尊重、支持，我们本应呼吁总统给予支持和公开承认，以引起对这一事件的关注。
Second thing, the Iranian people have been courageously fighting against this regime at various points over the last couple of decades in ways that we in the West don't pay enough attention to and deserve extraordinary respect and and support and should have should have called for presidential support and presidential acknowledgment to put a spotlight on it.
2009年曾发生大规模抗议，2018年也是如此。
In 2009, there was a big uprising in 2018.
2022年也爆发了大规模抗议。
In 2022 was a big uprising.
伊朗人民一直走上街头，冒着生命危险反抗一个残暴而强大的政权。
There there have the the Iranian people have been taking to the streets and risking their lives against a regime that was brutal and strong.
我想说，我同意你的观点，伊恩，无论这个政权还剩下什么，如果它继续掌权，其意图必将是残暴的，甚至可能比以往更加激烈和极端——如果你能想象的话，比伊朗人民过去所经历的还要更甚。
And I would say, I agree with you, Ian, that this whatever's left of this regime, if it remains in power, will its intentions will be to be brutal and perhaps even more strident and more ex you know, than than what if you can believe that, than what the Iranian people have had to deal with.
但有一个重大区别是，我认为他们会变得更弱。
But one big difference is, I think they will be weaker.
对吧？
Right?
伊朗镇压工具和手段正因美国和以色列的行动而每天都在削弱。
The principal tools and instruments of repression in Iran are being weakened every single day as a result of what The US and Israel are doing.
他们正在摧毁被围困的国内安全部队的指挥官、基础设施和基地。
They're taking out the commanders and the infrastructure and the bases of the besieged domestic security force.
他们正在清除伊斯兰革命卫队的领导人、基础设施和人员。
They're taking out the leaders and the infrastructure and the personnel of the IRGC.
正如你所知，关于起义的历史——它们何时成功、何时失败——我们总是判断错误。
Now as you know, the history of uprisings and when they're successful and when they're not, we always get it wrong.
没人能预料到。
No one ever sees it coming.
谁知道呢？
Who knows?
你知道吗，当俄罗斯入侵乌克兰时，每个人都预计基辅会在72小时内沦陷。
You know, everyone was anticipating that Kyiv would fall, you know, after seventy two hours when Russia invaded Ukraine.
每个人都说，美军在9·11事件后进入阿富汗，塔利班永远不会垮台。
Everyone was saying that the Taliban, you know, would would never fall after The US went into Afghanistan after nine '11.
我的意思是，这个情报界也没能预见苏联的崩溃。
I mean, this intelligence community didn't see the fall
的
of the
苏联
Soviet Union
有人预见到阿萨德的倒台吗？
in the Did anyone see Assad's fall coming?
不。
No.
绝对不可能。
Absolute absolutely not.
所以准确地预测这件事非常困难。
So getting it right is very hard to to anticipate.
这背后有一整套联动机制，需要各种条件到位。
It there's a whole flywheel of, like, what has to be in place.
但我相信，如果伊朗人民有这种冒着巨大风险挑战政权的历史，当他们看到这个政权如今已沦为残影，而美国和以色列正在此刻对其施压时，他们很可能会被激发得更加奋起反抗。
But I gotta believe if the Iranian people have this history of being taking enormous risks to challenge this regime, they probably will be more inspired to do so when they see that what is left of this regime is a shadow of itself as a result of what The US and Israel are doing right now.
对他们来说，现在采取行动推翻这个政权，可能比几个月前更容易了。
And it may be easier for them to do something about that regime than it was just a few months ago.
我们才刚看到两个月前发生的事。
We saw what happened just two months ago.
在短短几天内，超过三万名伊朗人被屠杀。
Over 30,000 Iranians were slaughtered in, like, a couple of days.
好吧，谁知道他们现在的实力会怎样呢，a。
Well, who knows what their capabilities will be now, a.
而且，b，谁知道那些负责镇压的机构人员的士气会如何，毕竟这么多同事和上司都被杀了。
And, b, who knows what the morale is of the of the personnel in these institutions that that do the repression in the country will be after so many of their colleagues and supervisors have been killed.
我担心的是，尽管伊朗政府在军事上不断被削弱和打击，但他们由于在边境的行动以及所赚取的钱财，仍展现出很强的能力。
My fear is that this Iranian government, as much as it is being eroded and hit militarily, they are showing a lot of capacity because of what they're doing in the straight and because of the money they're making.
所以，再次强调，我认为这里存在一种权衡，如果你的说法是特朗普有一个统一的战略，即不惜一切代价确保这个政权被削弱，那我会对你的观点更放心一些。
So, again, I I think that there is a give and take there, and this is not if if Trump had a uniform strategy that was we're gonna do everything possible to ensure that this regime will be degraded, then I'd feel more comfortable with what you're saying.
我认为这完全不是真的。
I don't I don't think that's true at all.
如果你还没有的话，请务必订阅我们的YouTube频道，以及时了解所有政治新闻。
If you aren't already, make sure to subscribe to our YouTube page to stay in the loop on all the politics news.
我们短暂休息一下。
Let's take a quick break.
请继续关注我们。
Stay with us.
本节目由以下赞助支持：经营企业已经够难了，为什么还要用十几个互不相通的应用程序让事情变得更复杂呢？
Support for this show comes from Running a business is hard enough, so why make it harder with a dozen different apps that don't talk to each other?
介绍Odoo。
Introducing Odoo.
这是你唯一需要的商业软件。
It's the only business software you'll ever need.
它是一个一体化、完全集成的平台，让您的工作更轻松：客户关系管理、会计、库存、电子商务等等。
It's an all in one fully integrated platform that makes your work easier CRM, accounting, inventory, ecommerce, and more.
最棒的是什么？
And the best part?
Odoo以远低于传统方案的成本，取代了多个昂贵的平台。
ODOO replaces multiple expensive platforms for a fraction of the cost.
因此，成千上万家企业已经选择了Odoo。
That's why over thousands of businesses have made the switch.
那您又何不呢？
So why not you?
前往 odoo.com 免费试用 Odoo。
Try Odoo for free at odoo.com.
就是 odoo.com。
That's odoo.com.
在一个平凡的早晨，巴布的一天
Once upon a mundane morning, Barb's day
突然变得忙碌起来。
got busy without warning.
一位房地产经纪人需要一个开放日标识牌。
A realtor in need of an open house sign.
不。
No.
要50个，而且得在九点前设计好。
50 of them and designed before nine.
我头疼。
My head hurts.
有什么强大的工具能帮上这个忙吗？
Any mighty tools to help with this pint?
巴布采取了行动。
Barb made her move.
她打开了Canva，进入了状态。
She opened Canva and got in the groove.
通过创建Canva模板，她制作了50个标志，
Both creating Canva sheets create 50 signs fit
适合郊区街道使用。
for suburban streets.
一键完成？
Done in a click?
全部搞定。
All complete.
太棒了。
Sweet.
现在想象一下，当你在canva.com上发挥想象力时，你的梦想会变成什么样子。
Now imagine what your dreams can become when you put imagination to work at canva.com.
本节目由Public提供支持，这是一款为认真对待投资的人设计的平台。
Support for the show comes from Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously.
在Public上，你可以构建一个包含股票、债券、期权和生成式资产的多元化投资组合，而生成式资产能让你用人工智能将任何想法转化为指数。
On Public, you can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, and options, and now generated assets, which allow you to turn any idea into an index with AI.
前往 public.com/podcast，转移你的投资组合即可获得无上限的1%奖励。
Go to public.com/podcast and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio.
那就是 public.com/podcast。
That's public.com/podcast.
本广告由Public投资经纪服务提供，服务方为Open to the Public Investing Inc.，成员受FINRA和SIPC监管。
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投资顾问服务由Public Advisors LLC提供，该公司为美国证券交易委员会注册的投资顾问。
Advisory service by Public Advisors LLC, SEC registered adviser.
生成式资产是一种交互式分析工具。
Generated assets is an interactive analysis tool.
本内容仅作信息参考，并非投资推荐或建议。
Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice.
完整的披露信息可在public.com/disclosures查看。
Complete disclosure is available at public.com/disclosures.
欢迎回来。
Welcome back.
我今天想稍微聊一聊这里的运营执行情况。
I just wanna talk a little bit about operational execution here.
所以我认为当时确实存在站得住脚的合理理由。
So I think there was a really there was real valid justification.
从来就没有什么正义的战争，战争就只是战争而已。
There are no good wars, but there's just wars.
当时我对有限度的军事行动抱有更多期待，也认可这类行动的合理性，我就称其为有限军事行动吧。
And I I was more hopeful about and saw the justification for at least what I'll call limit military operation.
敌方防空系统瘫痪，这是千载难逢的时机：对方政权本就动荡不稳，我们还能借此进一步削弱其对在全球各地作乱的恐怖组织及代理势力的关联与支持，摧毁他们的弹药储备、军工产能、武器生产的工业能力，破坏他们的导弹发射能力，甚至有可能推翻该政权，同时把控住核设施的安全。
Air defenses are down, unique moment in time, a wobbly regime, the ability to further neuter connection and support for terrorist groups and proxies wreaking havoc all over the globe, take their munitions capability or production capability, industrial capacity for producing weapons down, destroy their missile launch capability, perhaps topple the regime, secure the nuclear sites.
我认为这么做、现在这么做，有很多非常合理的理由。
I think there was a lot of very valid reasons for why to do this, why now.
坦白说，这感觉像是操作上的卓越与战略上的无能并存。
And quite frankly, it feels like operational excellence with strategic incompetence.
我先从你开始，丹。
And I'll start with you, Dan.
我们现在在哪？
Where are we?
好吧。
Okay.
信息不明确。
No clear messaging.
美国人很难清楚地识别出我们正在做什么、为什么现在做，以及何时会宣布胜利并撤离的目标。
Hard to hard for Americans to identify a set of objectives around what we're doing, why now, and when we're gonna declare victory and leave.
在我看来，这对以色列和犹太人的全球形象是一场灾难，因为特朗普政府及前特朗普政府官员的沟通出现了错误、无知和失当，他们几乎在说以色列在主导局势，我认为这将对以色列造成长期的灾难性后果。
To a disaster in my view for global opinion of Israel and Jews, communications that I think have been errant and ignorant and misplaced from the Trump administration and former Trump administration officials essentially saying that Israel is the is wagging the tail here, which I think is gonna be disastrous for Israel over the long term.
无法进行任何情景规划，竟然没有预见到霍尔木兹海峡这一关键瓶颈，而这很可能将全球经济拖入衰退。
An inability to do any sort of scenario planning that didn't see the choke point of the Straits Of Hormuz, which will likely put the world into a recession.
甚至连最基本层面的撤离西方人计划都未能制定出来。
Inability even at the most basic level to extract Westerners or a plan for extracting Westerners out of the region.
向美军和以色列部队的军事执行力致敬，但我认为目前的战略无能已经让局势转向，伊朗正在取胜。
So hats off to the to the military execution of US and Israeli forces, strategic incompetence that I would argue right now the momentum has shifted, and that Iran is winning.
伊朗方面基本上说：敌人也有发言权。
And that Iran has basically said, you know, the enemy gets a voice.
敌人在战争中也有发言权，而目前看来，他们的声音正在占上风。
They get a say in a war, And right now, it feels like their voice is winning.
这可以说是我所知的近期地缘政治史上最严重的从胜利巅峰跌入失败深渊的案例。
And that this has been what I call an arguably the greatest snatching defeat from the jaws of victory in geo recent geopolitical history.
丹，我先让你回应这些评论。
Dan, I'll let you respond to those comments first.
所以
So
我的天啊。
my gosh.
我们已经进入这场战争二十五六天了吗？
We are, what, twenty five, twenty six days into this war?
你们说话的样子，好像战争已经结束了。
It is you guys are talking like it's over.
你们说话的样子，好像战争已经结束了，而且
You guys are talking like it's over, and The
美国正夹着尾巴撤退。
US is walking away with its tail between its legs.
我只是觉得，如果我们用这种方式报道其他重要的战争，想象一下。
It's just I think every imagine if we were were commenting on other very important wars.
想想看，如果二战也是像这场战争这样被报道，每天都有成千上万条推文、帖子和播客，逐小时分析比如某某人刚见了罗斯福，罗斯福的情绪如何。
Think about if World War two was being covered like this war, where every day there were a thousand twees tweets and posts and podcasts analyzing, you know, hour by hour every you know, this person just met with FDR, and FDR's mood is this.
我的意思是
And I mean
我能说一下吗？因为我非常喜欢你所说的，而且这很重要。
Can I just like, because I love what you're saying, and it's important?
我只是想补充一点。
I just wanna add inject into it.
那些战争也是我们参与进去的，而且是被推销给我们的。
Those were also wars that we bought into and that were sold to us.
没错。
And this Right.
事实上，每个人都醒过来后惊呼：天哪，发生什么事了？除了政府最高层的人之外。
Literally, everyone woke up and was like, WTF is happening except for, you know, people in the highest levels of government.
所以，这难道不会影响吗？
So don't doesn't that affect
支持率吗？
the support?
实际上，我认为自二战以来，你很难找到一场美国参与的战争，不是在美国社会和政治中引起严重分裂的。
I I I actually think since World War two, you'll be hard pressed to find wars fought by The US that weren't deeply wound up being deeply divisive in in American society, in American politics.
但但但但几乎这并不重要。
So but but but but it almost that doesn't matter.
关键是
The point is
好的。
Okay.
我理解你和斯科特的观点。
I take your and Scott's point.
总统每天都需要出来，每周都持续地解释和说服我们正在做什么以及我们试图实现的目标。
The the the president needs to do be out there explaining and persuading every day, every week what we're doing and what we're trying to achieve in a consistent way.
我不确定这是否能团结国家，我持怀疑态度，因为我认为许多左派人士希望美国在对伊朗的战争中失败，因为他们想让特朗普遭遇政治挫折。
I I you don't whether or not that could unite the country, I'm dubious because I think many on the left are rooting for failure in the war against Iran because they want Trump to have a political setback.
而且很多右派人士也
And That many on
如此。
the right.
狭窄。
Narrow.
更狭窄。
Much narrow.
少得多。
It's far less.
如果你看看MAGA共和党人，民调显示他们 overwhelmingly 支持特朗普所做的事。
You if you look at MAGA Republicans, vote the polling shows the overwhelming support for what Trump is doing.
并没有出现国会、众议院、参议院、总统候选人等所有方面一致支持的情况，他们只是在暗中希望失败。
There's not this consistent across the board, congress, the house, the senate, people running for president, and, you know, are they're just, like, rooting for failure.
所以我不知道在这种高度两极分化、高度政治化的环境中，这会产生什么效果。
So I don't know if that would have the effect in this environment, in this highly polarized, highly political environment.
我不知道，杰丝，这是否能达到我们期望的效果，但无论如何我们还是应该去做。
I don't know, Jess, if it would have the effect that we want it to, but it's still we should do it anyways.
总统无论如何都该这么做，因为从战略上讲，我们首先需要不断向美国公众解释我们在做什么。
The president should be doing it anyways because, strategically, we need to just be explained to the American public constantly what we're doing, first of all.
其次，伊恩说，你知道的，我列出了哪些有效，而他列出了哪些无效。
Second of all, Ian said that the the thing you know, I I laid out what what is working, and he laid out what isn't working.
我想补充一点，海湾国家对我的反应非常有趣。
I I do wanna add, the reaction of the Gulf States to me is really, really interesting.
我一直关注着以色列与海湾国家之间关系的升温、降温，可能再次升温，然后又降温的过程。
I I have been following for some time relationships warming, cooling, maybe warming again, then cooling again between Israel and the Gulf States.
我们今天看到的情况，我以前从未见过：以色列国防军总参谋长每天多次与该地区阿拉伯国家的同行通话，以色列已完全融入中央司令部，与这些阿拉伯国家紧密合作，正如你所说，穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼、阿联酋人，我认为巴林人，和以色列一样，积极推动对伊朗在这场战争中行为的强硬回应。
What we are seeing today, I have never seen before, where the chief of staff of the IDF is on the phone multiple times a day with his counterparts in Arab countries across the region, where Israel is fully integrated into CENTCOM with all these Arab states, where the Arab states, as you said, MBS and and the Emiratis and I think the Bahrainis are as pushing for as an aggressive response to what is how Iran has fought this war as Israel has.
因此，这场战争结束时的情况将非常有趣。
And so that'll be very interesting to see when this war ends.
但从以色列在该地区的角度来看，以色列不再感到如此孤立。
But I I think from Israel's perspective in the region, Israel is not feeling so alone.
你知道吗？
You You know?
在10月7日之后，由于加沙战争，他们在过去几年里感到孤立。
After October 7, they were feeling alone last couple of years because the war on Gaza, they were feeling alone.
以色列在加沙的作战方式，使这些阿拉伯国家在政治上陷入了困境。
It made life complicated politically for these Arab states the way Israel was fighting the war on Gaza.
我支持这场战争，但毫无疑问，许多逊尼派海湾国家的首都都做出了非常政治化的、有算计的回应。
I supported that war, but there was no doubt that there was a very political calculated response for many capitals in the Sunni Gulf.
我认为现在情况已经不同了。
I do not think that is the case now.
如果这种变化具有持久性，如果这场战争结束后这种态势还能维持，我不确定我们还会认为以色列如此孤立。
And if that has durability, if that has a shelf life after this war, I'm I'm not so sure we're gonna look at this as Israel's so isolated.
我最后想说的是，沃尔特·拉塞尔·米德今天在《华尔街日报》上发表了一篇非常深刻的评论，他说的正是我一直在想的事情。
The last thing I'll say here is Walter Russell Meade has a has a very thoughtful piece in the Wall Street Journal today that, like, he said what I've been thinking.
所以，尽管这是我自己的想法，但我还是想给他应有的认可。
So even though I was thinking it, do wanna give him credit.
他基本上说，鹰派和鸽派都搞错了。
He basically said the hawks and the doves both got this wrong.
明白吗？
Okay?
他说，鹰派低估了这会有多困难，特别是那些针对伊朗的鹰派。
He says the the hawks underestimated how hard it would be, the Iran hawks.
伊朗的鸽派则高估了，如果我们通过谈判和伊核协议等机制与伊朗合作，该政权会有多大的让步意愿。
The Iran doves overestimated how accommodating Iran the regime would be if we just worked with them in mechanisms like negotiations and the JCPOA.
正如我开头所说，对伊朗鸽派而言，醒悟的时刻来了：伊朗根本不会妥协。
And the wake up calls, as I said at the beginning, for the Iran doves is there's no accommodation with Iran.
所以我们正在与伊朗交战。
So it's we're at war with Iran.
我认为每个人基本都明白这一点，即使并非所有人都因政治原因愿意公开说出来。
I think everyone basically understands that, even if not everyone for political reasons wants to say it out loud.
我们正在与伊朗交战。
We're in war with Iran.
问题只在于这场战争何时爆发，或者是否会时断时续地持续下去。
It's a matter of when that war happens or whether it goes on and then off and then on again.
关键在于我们如何打这场战争，如何解释这场战争。
It how we fight the war, how we explain the war.
但我认为任何人都不可能再对我国正在与伊朗交战这一事实抱有幻想，这场战争揭示了这一点。
But I don't think anyone could have any illusions that we are at war with Iran, and this war revealed it.
这很有趣，因为你也可以说俄罗斯的情况类似，但特朗普显然持不同意见，并以行动表明了他的立场，他认为这些做法符合美国优先的原则，这一点非常重要。
Oh, it's funny because you could say the same thing about Russia, and yes yet Trump clearly disagrees and has acted in ways that shows he disagrees for reasons that he thinks are aligned with America first, which is it's important point that I wanna make.
但让我先回应前两点，你说这场战争只有二十五天，所以美国民众应该保持耐心。
But I'll let me address the first two first, which is that, you know, you said that it's only twenty five days, and so the American people should show patience.
你说得对。
You're right.
当然。
Of course.
但特朗普总统在与七国集团领导人通话时称，这场战争将在几天内结束，伊朗即将无条件投降。
But president Trump, on the phone with the g seven leaders, said that they the war was gonna be over within days and that the Iranians were about to surrender unconditionally.
当特朗普本人告诉美国民众这场战争会很简单、很快结束、没有任何代价、不必担心时，总统就在传递一种信息：我们不需要耐心。
And when Trump himself is telling the American people that this is gonna be easy, it's gonna be over, there's gonna be no cost, don't worry about it, the president is driving the messaging of we don't need to be patient.
我们不需要耐心，因为这场战争会很简单，很快就会结束。
We don't need to because this war is gonna be easy, and it's gonna be out.
我们就要结束了。
We're gonna be done.
他失败了。
And he failed.
他彻底失败了，因为他以为事情会这么简单。
He utterly failed because he thought it was gonna be that easy.
所以才没有耐心。
So that's why there's no patience.
并不是因为美国人民无法承受，或者战争不是为了正当理由。
It's not because the American people can't handle it for the right reasons, war for the right reasons.
美国人民愿意为正当的理由而战。
American people can fight for the right reasons.
但总统没有以诚实或可信的方式与民众沟通，因此在这件事上，以及在其他问题上，他已经失去了很多美国民众的支持。
But but this is the president is not has not been communicating with his people truthfully or trustfully, and therefore, has lost a lot of the American people on this and on other issues.
所以这就是我要说的一点。
So that's that's a point.
我同意。
I agree.
毫无疑问，海湾国家在军事和情报上与美国和以色列合作以对抗伊朗的紧密程度已经上升为一种必然需求。
There's no question that the the level of Gulf alignment with The United States and Israel militarily and on intelligence in fighting Iran has become of necessity, but has become higher.
当然，海湾国家对当前西岸局势的感受，与它们对黎巴嫩实地局势的感受是完全不同的。
That is, of course, very different with the way the Gulf states feel about what's happening in the West Bank right now, but the way the Gulf States feel about what's happening on the ground in Lebanon right now.
在我看来，这些因素将给以色列带来麻烦。
And those things are going to be problematic for Israel in my view.
我也认为，从长远来看，以色列在全球范围内将面临重大后果。
And I also think that there's gonna be big consequences for the Israelis long term globally.
我们已经看到，在这场战争之前，反犹主义就已经在上升。
We've already seen how much antisemitism was picking up before this war.
这显然还会继续下去。
That's obviously gonna continue.
我对此感到担忧。
I worry about that.
不同的故事，更长的观点。
Different story, longer point.
最后一点是关于特朗普是否能成功说服美国民众支持这场战争，其后果最终将显现。
The final point is on, like, whether or not Trump is gonna succeed in selling this war to the American people, and the consequence will eventually have it.
我认为特朗普在很多方面准确把握了美国民众的心态，因为他明白美国人对边境不安全感到厌倦，于是他承诺要确保边境安全。
I I think that Trump Trump got the American people right in a lot of ways because he understood that Americans were sick of not having secure borders, said I'm gonna secure the border.
他们也对被灌输自由贸易理念却无人投资美国制造业感到不满，所以他承诺要对此采取行动。
And they were sick of being sold a free trade message without people investing more in US manufacturing, so I'm gonna do something about that.
但在这两件事的执行上，他的做法在某些方面并不理想。
And his implementation was poor on both of those things in some ways.
他在关税问题上过度施压，在移民执法上也过于激进。
He over over egged it in tariffs, and he over egged it with ICE.
但他的核心信息，确实抓住了美国民众的心声。
But the baseline message, he got the American people.
他在乌克兰问题上也抓住了美国民众的心理：我厌倦了美国人为了并非美国核心利益的战争而战斗。
And he also got the American people with, I am sick and tired of Americans fighting for wars that aren't actually in the primary interest of The United States, and he did that on Ukraine.
我相信美国应该支持乌克兰人。
I believe The United States should be supporting the Ukrainians.
是的。
I do.
以特朗普不支持的方式。
In a way that Trump does not.
对吧？
Right?
我相信这很重要，因为俄罗斯入侵了乌克兰。
I I believe it matters because the Russians invaded Ukraine.
乌克兰是一个主权国家，而且是民主国家。
It's a sovereign nation, democratic.
俄罗斯是一个独裁国家。
Russia's a dictatorship.
我们曾邀请他们加入北约。
We want we invited them to NATO.
我们的言辞应该有分量，我相信这一点。
Our words should matter, and the I believe that.
对吧？
Right?
然后特朗普单方面说：不行。
And then Trump unilaterally says, no.
那地方很远。
It's far away.
相隔数千英里。
It's thousands of miles away.
欧洲人应该花所有的钱。
The Europeans should spend all the money.
我们一分钱都不该花。
We shouldn't spend any of it.
你知道吗？
And you know what?
这在美国民众中相当受欢迎。
That's pretty popular among the American people.
你知道，我现在看到以色列和伊朗的情况，这场战争在以色列非常受欢迎，就像支持乌克兰在波兰、波罗的海国家和北欧国家非常受欢迎一样。
And, you know, I I now see on on Israel, Iran, it's this war is very popular in Israel because, of course, you know, in the same way that supporting Ukraine is very popular, like, in Poland and the Baltic States and the Nordics.
但这在美国并不受欢迎。
But it ain't popular in The United States.
为什么呢？
Why not?
因为你两次选举了一位总统，他说我们要停止这样做。
Because you've elected a president twice that said we're gonna stop doing this.
所以你可能会认为特朗普在这个问题上的立场完全错误，但关键是，他的立场与美国民众的走向是一致的。
And so now you might think that Trump is completely misguided in that message, but the point is he's aligned with where the American people are going.
你们已经忘了我们，所以别再这样了。
It's you've forgotten about us, so stop this.
别为乌克兰打仗。
Don't fight for Ukraine.
不要为欧洲而战。
Don't fight for Europe.
不要为以色列而战。
Don't fight for Israel.
不要为海湾国家而战。
Don't fight for the Gulf States.
不要为台湾而战。
Don't fight for Taiwan.
不要为日本而战。
Don't fight for Japan.
停止吧。
Stop this.
我认为，这种情况持续得越久，虽然只有七千名士兵，但每一位士兵都很重要。
And I think that the longer this goes, yes, only 7,000 troops, but every troop matters.
是的。
Yes.
他只是要求拨出2000亿美元用于五角大楼的特别分配，但过去三年用于乌克兰的资金只有1810亿美元。
Only $200,000,000,000 he's asking for in the special dis distribution for the Pentagon, but only a 181,000,000,000 was spent on Ukraine over three years.
然而，美国人却在问：你们为什么不先照顾好国内的我们？
And yet Americans are like, why are you doing this when you're not taking care of me at home?
而且，是的，我认为关于他们弹道导弹射程达4000公里的这种说法，对普通美国特朗普选民来说根本站不住脚。
And, yeah, I don't think 4,000 kilometer lying about their ballistic missiles is a credible ex post argument for the average American Trump voter.
我也不觉得。
I don't.
我就只是不觉得。
I just don't.
你现在和我可以进行一场非常理智、高深的对话，讨论战略大计、现实政治，以及这对美国长期意味着什么，但我谈的是让特朗普当选的真正原因。
Now you and I can have a very intelligent pointy headed conversation about, like, you know, grand strategy and realpolitik and what it means for America long term, but I'm talking about, like, what got Trump elected.
这根本不是让特朗普当选的原因。
This did not get Trump elected.
绝对不是。
Absolutely not.
我认为他会付出代价。
And I think he's gonna pay.
在特朗普选民中，我确实认为很多人倾向于关注少数几个声音最大、最活跃的自称MAGA右翼传道者，听他们说什么，并过度解读这些言论所代表的特朗普选民群体和特朗普联盟的真实情况。
Among Trump voters, I really think that there's a tendency among many of us to fixate on a handful of very loud, high volume self appointed evangelists for the MAGA right and listen to the things they're saying and over interpret what that means where the where the Trump electorate where Trump's coalition is.
事实上，如果你看一项又一项民调，CBS刚刚发布了新的民调数据。
The reality is if you look in poll after poll after poll, CBS just came out with a new poll.
支持率超过80%。
It's over 80%.
特朗普选民中，超过80%的人支持他所采取的行动，支持他在伊朗的所作所为。
Trump voters well over 80% support what he's doing, support what he's doing in Iran.
我告诉你，
I'm telling
我认为会的。
you, I think it will be.
我不是说这不会改变，但支持率确实很高。
I'm not saying it can't change, but but I but I but but the support is high.
我认为，伊恩，人们有一种倾向，尤其是在九一一事件后的过去几十年里，将战争和国家安全方面的决策视为非黑即白。
I think there is this tendency, Ian, to to think about decisions in war and national security, particularly post nine eleven in the last couple of decades in very binary terms.
所以我们要么认为战争是无休止的。
So we either think of of of war as endless war.
一旦介入，就再也无法脱身。
If we get involved, we'll never get out.
一旦介入，就会陷入泥潭。
If we get involved, it's quagmire.
这就是对伊拉克和阿富汗战争的描述。
So that was the characterization of Iraq and Afghanistan.
或者就是什么都不做。
Or it's do nothing.
是的。
Yes.
世界上正在发生各种糟糕的事情，但我们唯一的选择、唯一负责任的选择就是什么都不做。
There's bad things happening around the world, but our only option, the only responsible option is to do nothing.
奥巴马在叙利亚划下了红线。
Obama draws the red line in Syria.
60万人被屠杀。
600,000 people are slaughtered.
更多人被迫永久流离失所，而我们却什么也没做。
Many more permanently displaced, and we do nothing.
他使用了化学武器，而我们却什么也没做。
And he uses chemical weapons, and we do nothing.
所以，这两种就是极端情况。
And so so those are, the two extremes.
我认为特朗普所采取的是一种可能的第三条道路，即并不声称我们永远不使用武力。
I do think where Trump is is this possible model of a third way, which is not saying we're never gonna use military force.
但如果我们使用武力，就会非常精准、非常有限，不会让自己陷入泥潭。
But if we use it, we are gonna be very targeted, very surgical, and we're not gonna get ourselves bogged down.
现在我们就看看这在伊朗会如何发展。
Now we'll see how this goes in Iran.
过去一年里，他已经在世界多个地区多次采取此类行动，最近的显然是年底的委内瑞拉，当然还有2025年6月的伊朗。
He's been doing this a number of times over the last year in various parts of the world, most recently, obviously, Venezuela at the end of the year, but and, obviously, in Iran in in in June '25.
是的。
Yeah.
我们还不知道最终会如何发展，但我的观点是，就他在竞选期间承诺的国家安全方针而言，特朗普离违背这一核心承诺还差得很远。
We'll see where this lands in that, but we are we are my only point is we are so far from Trump violating the the core commitment from his campaign in terms of how he would conduct national security.
我不是说情况不会变糟，我们可能走上某种岔路，但目前我们还没到那一步。
I'm not saying it can't get bad, and we could go on some kind of detour, but we're just not there now.
我想补充一点。
I just wanna add.
你确实说得对。
You're definitely right.
我的意思是，根据一些民调，支持率高达90%。
I mean, it's 90% in some polling in terms of support for this.
但当你提到地面部队时，支持率就会急剧下降。
But when you mentioned boots on the ground, it plummets.
你正在看到它以其他方式体现出来，比如人们对总统在经济、移民问题上的看法，以及他是否关注影响到你的议题。
You are seeing it show up in other ways of judging the president, like how they think about him on the economy, how they think of him on immigration, you know, whether he's paying attention to issues that affect me.
超过70%的人认为他并不关注这些问题。
Over 70% say he's not focused on that.
所以，它正在不同的领域显现出来。
So, you know, it's manifesting in different pockets.
这就是我们目前的状况。
Here's where we are.
无法保障核武库的安全。
Can't secure nuclear stockpiles.
如果没有地面部队，不太可能实现政权更迭。
Unlikely to register regime change without boots on the ground.
有两栖战舰。
There are amphibious warships.
海军陆战队正在部署。
There are marines being deployed.
六十秒或更短。
What sixty seconds or less.
如果没人能预知未来，伊恩，你先说。
If no one has a crystal ball, Ian, you go first.
你认为未来三十天会发生什么？
What do you think happens here in the next thirty days?
总体来看，我认为这是一场非常接近的较量。
On balance, I think it's really close call.
我认为他确实会部署地面部队，因为他觉得在核问题上需要采取更多行动，而且让霍尔木兹海峡如此脆弱地暴露在伊朗面前，对海湾国家、乃至全球经济来说都是极其危险的处境。
I I think he does actually deploy these ground troops because he feels like he needs to do something more on the nuclear side and because leaving the straits this vulnerable to the Iranians is a really bad place to put the Gulf States and to eventually and to put the global economy.
所以，是扣押货物，用它来换取开放或确保霍尔木兹海峡的安全通行吗？
So is it take cargo and trade it for opening the or securing safe passage through Hormuz?
你觉得会是什么样子？
What do think it
看起来会怎样？
looks like?
如果你这么做，没错，我只想说，你采取COG行动，伊朗做出严重反击的可能性很高。
If you do that, right, all I'm saying is you take COG and the Iranian the likelihood that the Iranians respond in really damaging ways is high.
因此，部分决定是否采取行动，取决于他们认为自己对伊朗的打击到底有多彻底。
So maybe in part, the the decision on taking card comes to how much they think they've really degraded Iran.
即使他们想这么做，等他们到达时，也已经无法造成太多报复性伤害了。
So even if they want to, they can't do that much damage in return by the time they get there.
再说一遍，这真的很难判断，但我们讨论的是极其重大的利益。
Again, I this is it is really hard to make a call on this, but we're we're talking about really big stakes.
丹？
Dan?
我认为这场战争可能会在开战后大约六十天内结束，这意味着我们还剩下几周时间。
I think this war will probably go approximately approximately sixty days from when it started, which means we still have a few more weeks.
我同意伊恩的看法。
I I agree with Ian.
我认为首先，谈判不会有任何进展。
I don't think well, first of all, I don't think negotiations are gonna go anywhere, a.
而且，第二，我认为特朗普仍然觉得他手中还有一些军事工具，可以在结束冲突前使用。
And, b, I I think Trump still thinks he has some tools in his toolkit that he can use militarily before he wants to wind things down.
我想再回到伊恩说过的一点。
And I will say that I I I I just wanna come back to something Ian said.
他谈到了俄罗斯和乌克兰，我同意他的观点。
He talked about Russia and Ukraine, and I agree with him.
如今，对美国构成四大威胁的是：中国、俄罗斯、朝鲜和伊朗。
There are four major threats to The United States today, China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran.
这四大威胁中的三个都拥有核能力，这使得美国最终难以直接对抗它们。
Three of those four have a capability that makes it a nuclear capability that is makes it very hard for The United States to ultimately confront them.
伊朗目前还没有核武器，但它渴望拥有。
Iran doesn't have one yet, and it wants one.
我认为，经过这场冲突后，伊朗距离实现这一目标将比三周前更遥远。
And I think they are gonna wind up coming out of this much farther from that reaching that goal than they were three weeks ago.
令人不安的是，我认为我们还处于早期阶段。
Scarily enough, I believe we are early days.
所以，伊恩和丹，非常感谢你们抽出时间。
And so Ian and Dan, thank you so much for your time.
我希望你们能再来，我们再做一次。
I hope you'll come back and we can do this again.
我非常喜欢这次对话。
It was I loved it.
有你们在真是太好了，非常有价值。
To have you It's great was super valuable.
伊恩和我是朋友，这很有帮助。
It helps that Ian and I are friends.
丹·塞诺尔，伊恩·布雷默，非常感谢。
Dan Senor, Ian Bremmer, thanks very much.
杰斯，你有什么看法？
Jess, thoughts?
我喜欢理性的分歧。
I love civil disagreement.
不过，这是我谋生的方式。
I do it for a living, though.
有时的情况远比我们刚才看到的更不文明。
Sometimes it's way less civil than what we just saw.
我觉得他们提出了非常重要的观点。
I thought they brought really important points to it.
相比我们刚开始的时候，我现在为今天的五点准备得更充分了。
And I'm better prepared for the five today than I was when we started.
非常感谢这场对话。
So thankful for that conversation.
你呢？
What about you?
是的。
Yeah.
我认为，作为社会，我们迫切需要一场有思想的、文明的对话，这种对话能缓和对立，让你愿意倾听，因为你不再专注于指责对方是傻瓜。
I think we as a society are desperate for a thoughtful civil conversation that softens the beach where you're willing to listen because you're not focused on them basically calling each other idiots.
而且我真的很喜欢他们两个人。
And also I just have a lot of affection for both of them.
我觉得他们是好人，也很聪明，虽然我在很多问题上不同意他们的观点，但每次交流后我都学到了更多。
I think they're good men and and smart, and I learn from both of disagree with both of them on on a lot, but I just always come away smarter.
Anyway，我要去玩了。
Anyways I'm gonna go play.
祝你五号顺利。
Good luck on the five.
我要用割草这件事来跟以色列人说。
I'm gonna use that mowing the lawn thing with the Israelis.
重要的是，他们已经承诺继续参与这类活动。
That's important that they have signed up to continue to do these kinds of things.
问题是，我们是否也会承诺继续参与这些活动，以维持该地区的安全。
And the question is whether we are going to sign up to continue to do these things to keep the region safe.
祝你节目顺利。
Have a good show.
谢谢。
Thank you.
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