愤怒的温和派：特朗普政府对伊朗战争的说法前后矛盾

我们该如何理解美国、以色列和伊朗在权衡这场战争下一步行动时所面临的决策？

How can we understand the decisions facing The United States and Israel and Iran as they weigh next moves in this war?

原本旨在阻止它们获得核弹的战争，反而可能将它们推过临界点，促使它们拥有核弹。

War that was meant to prevent from, reaching a bomb eventually might push them beyond the Rubicon Con and to have that bomb.

我是约翰·费纳。

I'm John Feiner.

我是杰克·苏利文，我们是《长远博弈》的主持人，这是一档每周播出的国家安全播客。

And I'm Jake Sullivan, and we're the hosts of The Long Game, a weekly national security podcast.

本周，前以色列国防情报官员丹尼·辛赫拉诺维茨从以色列加入我们，讨论针对伊朗的战争。

This week, former Israeli defense intelligence officer Danny Sinchranowitz joins us from Israel to discuss the war against Iran.

本期节目现已发布。

The episode's out now.

请在您收听播客的平台搜索并关注《长远博弈》。

Search for and follow the long game wherever you get your podcasts.

光秃的墙壁，整洁的表面，极简主义风格正当时。

Bare walls, clear surfaces, the minimalist aesthetic is having a moment.

对一些人来说，这是一种反抗的形式。

And for some, it's a form of resistance.

我觉得很多人意识到，我们生活在一个高度消费主义的社会中，因此产生了一种想要抵制这种现状的渴望和需求。

I think a lot of people have a sense that, like, we live in this very consumerist society and feel kind of a desire and need to, like, push back against that.

如何过更少的生活。

How to live with less.

本周《向我解释》就到这里。

That's this week on explain it to me.

新节目每周日上线，各大播客平台均可收听。

New episodes, Sundays, wherever you get your podcasts.

我是梅根·拉皮诺。

Megan Rapinoe here.

本周《再多一点》，朱朱·沃特金斯加入我们，聊聊她离开球场但从未远离赛场的一年。

This week on a touch more, Juju Watkins joins us to talk about her year off of the court, but definitely not on the sidelines.

我们还将关注SEC锦标赛中出现的冷门，以及这些结果可能如何影响选拔日，还有在她相信杯赛上展现出的美国球员代际传承。

We're also looking at the upsets coming out of the SEC tournament and how that might impact selection Sunday and the intergenerational span of US players on display at the She Believes Cup.

此外，我们还有一位惊喜嘉宾。

Plus, we have a surprise guest.

你绝对不能错过。

You won't wanna miss it.

请在您收听播客的平台以及YouTube上收听我们最新一期的《A Touch More》。

Check out the latest episode of our podcast to touch more wherever you get your podcasts and on YouTube.

感谢您收听Prop G频道的《Raging Moderates》。

Thanks for listening to Raging Moderates on the Prop G Feed.

我们很快就会离开这个频道。

We'll soon be leaving this feed.

因此，如果您想在Apple Podcasts、Spotify以及其他所有平台订阅《Raging Moderates》，请尽快订阅，因为我们很快就会离开这个频道。

So if you wanna subscribe to Raging Moderates on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and everywhere else, We'll be soon leaving this feed, so you're going to wanna subscribe to Raging Moderates on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and everywhere else.

您每天晚上都能收到新 episodes，包括您即将听到的这一期。

You'll get new episodes every weekday evening, including the episode that you're about to hear.

没错。

That's right.

Raging Moderates 的订阅用户每周五天都能听到杰斯和我。

Raging Moderates subscribers get Jess and me five days a week.

如果你喜欢无广告的体验，现在就在 YouTube 或 Substack 上订阅吧。

Subscribe now on YouTube or Substack for ad free if you're into that.

现在进入今天的节目。

Now here's today's show.

欢迎收听 Raging Moderates。

Welcome to Raging Moderates.

我是斯科特·加洛韦。

I'm Scott Galloway.

我是杰西卡·塔罗夫。

And I'm Jessica Tarlov.

在今天这期 Raging Moderates 节目中，我们将讨论为什么尽管特朗普称战争已部分或完全结束，他却在加大对伊朗的军事行动。

In today's episode of Raging Moderates, we're discussing why despite Trump saying the war is partially or completely done, he is ramping up military action in Iran.

如果你还没有订阅，请务必订阅我们的 YouTube 频道，以及时了解每日政治新闻。

If you aren't already, please make sure to subscribe to our YouTube page to stay in the loop on all the day's political news.

好吧。

Alright.

我们开始吧。

Let's get into it.

伊朗战争进入第11天，特朗普的表态简直前后矛盾。

Eleven days into the war with Iran, and the message from Trump is, quite frankly, just all over the place.

周一，这位和平时期的总统暗示冲突可能很快结束，称美国和以色列的进展远远超前于计划。

On Monday, the peacetime president suggested the conflict might be wrapping up soon, saying The US and Israel are very far ahead of schedule.

那你能把这个计划跟我们分享一下吗，老板？

Well, can you share that schedule with us, boss?

无论如何，市场短暂地松了一口气，但几小时后，特朗普警告说，如果伊朗威胁全球能源供应，美国将做出强烈回应，让该地区‘永远无法恢复’。

Anyways, markets briefly breed the sigh of relief, but hours later, Trump warned that if Iran threatens global energy supplies, The US would respond so forcefully, the region would, open quote, never recover.

与此同时，世界上最重要的石油咽喉要道——霍尔木兹海峡的航运受到了严重干扰。

Meanwhile, shipping through the Straits Of Hormuz, one of the most important oil choke points in the world, is heavily disrupted.

因此，即使特朗普声称胜利近在咫尺，这场战争的实际结局以及它给美国人带来的痛苦，仍然非常不明朗。

So So even as Trump talks about victory being close, the actual endgame of the war and the pain it's causing for Americans is still pretty unclear.

让我们看一下昨天记者会上那个传递出矛盾信号的片段。

Let's watch a moment from the presser yesterday giving mixed signals.

总统先生，您曾说这场战争已经‘非常彻底’，但您的国防部长却说这仅仅是开始。

Mister president, you've said the war is, quote, very complete, but your defense secretary says this is just the beginning.

那么到底哪一种说法才是真的？美国人应该为这场战争做好多长时间的准备？

So which is it, and how long should Americans be

准备迎接战争。

prepared for war?

这只是开始。

The beginning.

这是建设一个新国家的开始，但他们确实没有海军。

It's the beginning of building a new country, but they certainly They have no navy.

他们没有空军。

They have no air force.

他们没有防空装备。

They have no anti aircraft, equipment.

一切都被炸毁了。

It's all been blown up.

他们没有雷达。

They have no radar.

他们没有通信设备，也没有领导层。

They have no telecommunications, and they have no leadership.

一切都消失了。

It's all gone.

所以，你知道，你可以看看那个说法。

So, you know, you could look at that statement.

我们现在离开时，可以称之为巨大的成功，我可以这么说，或者我们可以更进一步，而我们确实会更进一步。

We could we could call it a tremendous success right now as we leave here, I could call it, or we could go further, and we're gonna go further.

看似疯狂，实则精明。

Crazy like a fox.

对吧？

Right?

我喜欢他说这是个全新的国家，但这个国家实际上是由你除掉的那个人56岁的儿子在掌控，据说这个人更加极端，而且确实如此。

I love that he's saying it's in totally new country, but that is just being run by the 56 year old son of the guy that you took out Who's supposedly more extreme and has Yeah.

他有正当的复仇理由，因为你不仅杀了他全家，还叠加了他原本就有的信念。

A legitimate axe to grind that you killed his entire family on top of the beliefs that he already had.

特朗普在这场记者会上表现得非常活跃，我想谈谈这一点。

Trump was so all over in this press conference, and I wanna talk about it.

但我也想把马可·卢比奥昨天说的话引入讨论，因为亲眼目睹目标在实时 shifting 真是令人震惊。

But I also wanna bring what Marco Rubio said yesterday into the conversation because watching the goalpost shifting in real time is astounding.

这次任务的目标很明确，重要的是要不断提醒美国人民，为什么世界上最强的军队正在参与这项行动。

The goals of this mission are clear, and it's important to continue to remind the American people of why it is that the greatest military in the history of the world is engaged in this operation.

其目标是摧毁这个政权发射导弹的能力，包括摧毁他们的导弹和发射装置、制造这些导弹的工厂，以及摧毁他们的海军。

It is to destroy the ability of this regime to launch missiles, both by destroying their missiles and their launchers, destroy the factories that make these missiles, and destroy their navy.

根本没有提到推翻政权。

Doesn't mention removing a regime.

也没有提及核计划。

Doesn't talk about the nuclear program.

没有提到摧毁伊朗通过代理势力投射权力的能力。

No mention of destroying Iran's ability to project power via proxy forces.

我们不再谈论真主党或哈马斯或其他任何组织了。

We're not talking about Hezbollah or Hamas or anything anymore.

所以他们只是想收拾玩具走人。

So they're trying to just clean up their toys and go.

对吧？

Right?

因为他们无法实现最初的目标，于是只是抛给我们一堆话术，说这会是一个全新的国家，我们会支持这些受压迫的人——但顺便说一句，我们根本看不到街头有任何集会喊着‘美国，来帮帮我们’。

Like, cause they can't do what they set out to do, and they just fed us a bunch of talking points about how it actually would be a completely new country, how we would be supporting these oppressed people who by the way, we don't see any rallies in the streets saying, America, come help us.

我们看到的只有‘打倒美国’、‘打倒以色列’，而且我们知道，到目前为止已有1300名无辜的伊朗人丧生。

We just see death to America, death to Israel, and we know that between a 1,300 innocent Iranians have been killed at this point.

除了摧毁伊朗海军外，他们似乎已经击沉了大约42艘伊朗主要舰艇。

It it feels like except for taking out the navy, they've taken down, I think, 42 major Iranian vessels.

小型船只并不是优先目标，但海军部分确实属实。

Smaller ships has been not as much of the priority, but the navy part of that is definitely true.

但他们仍在像以前一样生产无人机，而现在鲁比奥告诉我们，我们被灌输的整个故事根本不会成为现实。

But they're still producing drones like they were before, and now Rubio is telling us that none of the story that we were sold is actually what we're gonna get out of this.

是的。

Yeah.

我们到底要检查哪些目标呢？

There's it's like what boxes are we looking to check here?

这甚至不是关于任务完成。

It's not even about mission accomplished.

问题是，任务到底是什么？

It's what is the mission?

我们正站在可能失去这场行动最重要目标或收益的边缘，我认为这个目标就是：战争初期，伊朗革命卫队犯下了迄今为止最大的错误——向每个海湾国家发射弹药。

And we are on the precipice of potentially losing what was, I would argue, the biggest objective or benefit of this action, and that is it seemed like early in the war, and this is a war, when the IRGC made the what I think is the biggest blunder so far of sending projectiles into every Gulf nation.

我们因此形成了美国、以色列和海湾地区温和国家之间更紧密的非正式联盟。

We had the formation of a a stronger informal alliance between The US, Israel, and moderate, nations in The Gulf.

这本会是一个巨大的胜利。

That that would have been actually a really big win.

而现在，我们正在失去他们的支持，因为霍尔木兹海峡的封锁对海湾国家造成了巨大的干扰。

And now we're losing their support because the Straits Of Hormuz being blocked is just an enormous disruption for the Gulf States.

迪拜，作为阿联酋乃至全球最成功的城市型主权中心之一，堪称二十一世纪的新加坡，现在人们都想离开，纷纷外迁。

Dubai, arguably one of the most successful urban sovereign centers in the world in The UAE, kind of the the twenty first century Singapore, people want out, people are leaving.

它看起来比以往任何时候都更加脆弱。

It looks much more vulnerable than it ever has.

而且你并不能简单地关掉阀门就把这些石油储存起来。

And it's not as if you can just turn off the tap and store this oil.

你知道，石油积聚会带来实际的问题。

You know, there are real issues to oil buildup.

它们会变得危险。

They get dangerous.

这些油井一直在持续出油，而石油必须找到去处。

These wells just they're they have oil flowing, and the oil needs to go somewhere.

他们可以把油装上船，但那些船又该怎么办呢？

And they can put it on ships, but then what do do with the ships?

他们正在讨论派遣海军舰队护送船只通过霍尔木兹海峡，但还没完全想清楚。

They're talking about, naval armadas to escort ships through the Straits Of Hormuz, but they haven't quite figured it out.

这感觉又像是半吊子的计划。

It just feels like, again, it was half baked.

而现在，为了挽救我认为本可能在这场战争中获得的巨大收益，他们需要与海湾国家更紧密地合作，明确告诉我们：如何让大家都做出的牺牲转化为你们的胜利，并实现本地区的长期可持续和平？

And it feels as if right now, in order to salvage what I think was, again, an enormous upside to potentially to this war, they need to be more tightly knit with the Gulf nations and say, how do we make the sacrifice we've all made here a win for you and a more sustainable peace across the region long term?

似乎我们正在缓慢但坚定地侵蚀所有这些善意，开始将海湾国家重新推回伊朗革命卫队的怀抱，因为我们甚至都无法清晰表达我们当前究竟想达成什么目标。

And it feels as if slowly but surely we're eroding all of that goodwill and starting to throw Gulf nations back into the arms of the IRGC because we can't even seem to articulate what it is we're trying to accomplish right now.

另外，我想问你的是，那些关于德黑兰附近油田被轰炸的画面，那种酸性黑雨和熊熊烈火，感觉非常恐怖。

And the other thing I wanted to ask you was that those images, it felt post apocalyptic of the bombing of oil fields near Tehran, and that kind of raining acidic black rain and those fires felt very, very frightening.

此外，我认为真正的危险在于伊朗可能走向分裂并爆发内战，因为在那种情况下，你通常得不到你真正想要的结果。

And, also, I would argue that a real danger here is the balkanization in a potential civil war within Iran because, typically, you don't get who you want in those situations.

而眼下彻底摧毁伊朗的经济生计，很可能会让你失去一个巨大的谈判筹码，只会制造更多不稳定，这长期来看对地区恐怕并非好事。

And, also, to gut the economic livelihood of Iran right now is probably you lose an enormous bargaining chip and just creates further instability, which probably isn't good long term for the region.

当特朗普或总统出来声称，据称他因以色列的行动而愤怒时，这完全是荒谬至极的谎言。

And then when Trump came out or when the president came out and said that, quote, unquote, it got leaked that he was angry that Israel did this, that is such enormous bullshit.

我认为以色列国防军现在基本上就像是美国军队的第六个分支。

I think the IDF is essentially kind of the sixth branch of the US military right now.

他们目前完全在协同行动。

They are coordinating a 100% right now.

这种说法，比如‘这些以色列人失控了，但我是个好人’，

And this notion like, oh, I'd these guys, these Israelis are out of control, but I'm the good guy.

我们来谈判吧。

Let's negotiate.

这简直太荒谬了，我必须说清楚。

It's just such I I just think that is such extraordinary bullshit that this is that be clear.

现在掌权的是特朗普。

Trump's in charge here.

但我认为，在这个时候袭击伊朗的油田是个巨大的错误。

But I think it was a huge mistake to go after the oil fields in Iran at this point.

你有什么看法？

What are your thoughts?

好吧，了解美国和以色列之间幕后沟通的激烈程度非常重要，这不仅限于我们的政府，还包括像贾里德·库什纳这样的人——昨天特朗普举行的那场记者会就明确提到，他是根据贾里德·库什纳告诉他的信息，才认为伊朗会攻击我们。

Well, having a better understanding of how intense the backchanneling is between The US and the Israelis and not just our government, but someone like Jared Kushner and that wide ranging presser that Trump gave yesterday, he actually said, based on what Jared Kushner told me, I thought Iran would attack us.

而不是基于我们情报机构提供的信息，而是基于我女婿的说法，他有很多朋友在该地区帮他赚大钱。

Not based on what our intel agencies were telling us, but what my son-in-law, who has a lot of friends who help him make a lot of money in the region, is telling us.

你说得完全对。

And you're completely right.

我的意思是，当他们看到德黑兰陷入火海时，和我们所有人一样，都震惊了，心想：天哪，这次真的严重了。

I mean, I think that they had the same reaction that we all did when they saw Tehran engulfed in flames and thought, holy shit, this one is bad.

对吧？

Right?

尤其是这场战争的第几天来着？

Especially on day what was it?

战争的第八天。

Day eight of this war.

但有趣的是，正如大卫·伊格纳修斯昨天在《华盛顿邮报》上所写的，似乎以色列有几位高级官员开始对持续升级、无休止地攻击伊朗表示担忧。

But what has been interesting to see, and David Ignatius wrote about this in the Washington Post yesterday, that apparently a few senior officials in Israel are voicing concerns about the escalating open ended attack on Iran.

这意味着他们认为行动本可以更精准。

So that would imply that they thought it could be more surgical.

我不知道他们是否在轻视我们的军事能力，然后说，我们已经把一切都给了你们。

I don't know if they're being dismissive of our military capabilities and then kind of saying, we gave you everything.

对吧？

Right?

比如，我们告诉你们他们在哪里吃早午餐。

Like, we told you where they were having brunch.

我们几乎在他们额头上打了个红灯，以便能够实施这次行动。

We had a, you know, a red light on their forehead, essentially, to be able to do this.

而你们没有达到我们的期望，或者只是承认，所有人都没能准确评估伊朗对此的反应，因为我们有这种好胜心理。

And you guys are not living up to our expectation or just an acknowledgment that everybody failed in assessing how Iran would react to this because there's this machismo that we have.

没错。

Right.

彼得·海格塞斯，你知道的，拍着胸脯说，没人能比得上我们。

Pete Hegseth, right, you know, beating his chest saying, there's nobody like us.

我们独一无二，而且真的无人能及。

There's nobody like us, and there is nobody like us.

但伊朗政府、伊斯兰革命卫队和新任最高领袖并不急于与我们坐到谈判桌前。

But Iranian government, the IRGC, and the new supreme leader are not hankering to get to the table with us.

他们会拖时间。

They're gonna run out the clock.

他们在玩命赌一把。

They're YOLO ing this.

他们让其他海湾国家承受痛苦。

And they're making the other Gulf states suffer.

我的意思是，现在有14个国家卷入了这件事，而当初他们宣传这是一次精准打击。

I mean, there are 14 countries involved right now for something that they marketed at the beginning as a surgical strike.

对。

Right.

对吧？

Right?

我们本可以离开这里

That we could be out of here

在未来。

in future.

作战行动。

Combat operation.

对。

Right.

这可能会非常不确定，但我们说的是14个国家。

Which can be very open ended, but we're talking about 14 countries.

是的。

Yeah.

他们却只是让人挺起腰板，穿越霍尔木兹海峡，而那里简直是必死之地。

And they're just telling people to pull up their big boy pants and go through the Strait Of Hormuz when that's certain death.

对吧？

Right?

只要让你们的油轮通过就行。

Just get your tankers through.

我认为特朗普昨天与普京通了一小时电话，这一点既有趣又重要。

And I think it is interesting and important that Trump spent an hour on the phone with Putin yesterday.

所以当他们出来表示，俄罗斯不仅提供无人机，还似乎在为美军提供目标信息，他们对此并不在意时。

So when they came out and said, we're not bothered by the fact that the Russians are not only supplying drones, but are apparently giving targeting information for Americans.

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

他去找了普京，我的意思是，谁知道他到底说了什么？

He's gone to Putin, and, I mean, who knows what he actually said?

但佩特·海格塞斯说，那是一次非常尖锐的对话。

But Pete Hegseth says, you know, it was a very sharp conversation.

他让普京退后，还说我们希望乌克兰获得和平，仿佛这真的重要似的。

He told him back off, and also we want peace for Ukraine as if that matters.

你知道，这正在演变成一个全球性问题。

You know, this is turning into a global problem.

对吧？

Right?

这里发生的事情绝非小事。

There is nothing small time about what's going on here.

感觉所有不该笑的人都在为他们所看到的而微笑。

And it feels like all the wrong people are smiling at what they're seeing.

我不知道你有没有注意到，CNN请了一名记者进入伊朗，受邀与新最高领袖的外交政策顾问交谈。

And I don't know if you caught this, but CNN got a journalist into Iran, invited in to talk to a foreign policy adviser to the new supreme leader.

因此，你也在见证一场宣传与营销活动的展开。

And so you're watching a communications and marketing campaign play out as well.

是的。

Yeah.

对吧？

Right?

因此，在多个方面，似乎警报都在拉响，我们并没有朝着最初设定的任何目标前进。

So on multiple fronts, it seems like flares are going up, that we are not moving towards any of the mission goals that were originally outlined.

也许卢比奥的较低目标能够实现，但总体而言，吉姆·希姆斯是对的，我们正试图找到一条退出路径，尽量减少羞辱，而特朗普则会发一条盛大的Truth Social帖子，然后转向古巴。

Maybe Rubio's lower grade goals will be accomplished or could be accomplished, but mostly that Jim Himes was right, and that we are going to try to find an off ramp with as little humiliation as possible, and Trump will do a big, you know, truth social post and move on to Cuba.

好的。

Okay.

我们短暂休息一下。

Let's take a quick break.

请继续关注。

Stay with us.

大使拉姆·伊曼纽尔曾担任奥巴马总统的幕僚长，那届政府不得不应对相当多的全球冲突。

Ambassador Rahm Emanuel served as president Obama's chief of staff, an administration that had to deal with its fair share of global conflicts.

他直接与以色列总理打交道，并深入思考过伊朗的威胁。

He dealt directly with Israel's prime minister and thought plenty about the threat from Iran.

但伊曼纽尔告诉我，这位总统在中东的行动节奏让他感到头晕目眩。

But Emmanuel told me that the pace of action from this president in The Middle East is giving him whiplash.

在十五个月内，这位总统对八个国家采取了军事行动。

In fifteen months, this president has taken military action against eight countries.

现在才过了十五个月，我们还剩下三年时间。

I just just in fifteen now we got three more years to go.

在十五个月内，伊朗就遭遇了两次，还有叙利亚、伊拉克、索马里、委内瑞拉。

In fifteen months, Iran twice, but you have Syria, Iraq, Somalia, Venezuela.

我本来以为尼日利亚也会失去。

You I was now I'm losing Nigeria.

《今日解读》，工作日和周六都会出现在你的信息流中。

Today Explained, in your feed every weekday and on Saturdays too.

在《版本历史》这档关于科技史上最重要、最有趣产品的聊天节目中，本周我们要聊的是1998年最热门的玩具。

This week on Version History, our chat show about the most interesting and important products in the history of technology, we're talking about the hottest toy from 1998.

没错。

That's right.

当然，我说的就是毛绒玩具费比。

Of course, I mean, the Furby.

那个小东西放在你桌上，没有关机按钮，不说英语，让所有你认识的人都烦透了，但你还是爱它爱得不行。

The little thing that sat on your desk and didn't have an off button and didn't speak English and annoyed everyone you knew, but you loved it to pieces anyway.

事实证明，在毛绒玩具佛宝的兴起背后，有着一段引人入胜的技术甚至人工智能故事。

It turns out there is a fascinating technology and even AI story behind what happened with Furby and why it took off.

这就是本周《版本历史》的全部内容，无论你在哪儿听播客，都能找到。

That's the story this week on Version History wherever you get podcasts.

是的。

Yeah.

看来市场对这场战争即将结束持更乐观的态度。

It does appear that the market is more optimistic about this war coming to a close.

我的意思是，油价已经从大约每桶112美元的高点回落，目前交易价约为83美元。

I mean, essentially, oil has come back from, I think, a high of $112 to approximately I think it's right now trading at about $83.

所以降幅相当明显。

So it's come down substantially.

仅在昨天一天，就下跌了12%。

It's off 12% just on the last day.

你认为这是因为特朗普的评论吗？还是你觉得这背后的原因是什么？

Do you think that's because of Trump's comment, or what what do you think that's a result of?

你知道吗？

You know what?

这是个正确的问题。

That's a correct question.

老实说，我不知道。

I the honest answer is I don't know.

我认为，局势越来越像是这个政权将会在这里幸存下来，同时，也存在越来越大的压力，要求你所谓的宣布胜利并撤出。

I think that it it's looking increasingly like the regime is gonna survive here, and also that there's increasing pressure to, if you will, declare victory and leave.

但市场吸收了数百万个信息点，它们是无情感、非政治性的，只受纯粹的恐惧与贪婪驱动，似乎在暗示霍尔木兹海峡最终或很快就会重新开放。

But the markets which absorb millions of points of information and are unemotional, nonpolitical, it's just pure fear and greed, seem to be saying that the Straits Of Hormuz will eventually or sooner rather than later be open.

而这将取决于一两件事：要么是我们有能力组建护航船队安全护送船只，要么是这场冲突将走向某种解决或开始缓和。

And that would be a function of one or two things, our ability to create convoys to escort ships safely, or that this conflict is going to come to some sort of resolution or start to wind down.

根据我所听到的信息，更可能是后者。

And given what I've heard, it's more of the latter.

我认为，特朗普政府未能让人们相信，如果这场冲突继续以当前的激烈程度发展，他们能够确保安全通行。

I don't think, the Trump administration has been able to instill a great deal of confidence that they'll be able to create safe passage if this conflict continues at the same level of intensity it is right now.

但市场似乎在传递这样的信息：标普指数在过去几天里保持平稳，几乎显得毫无波澜，这意味着这场冲突会很快结束。

But the market seemed to be saying, and the S and P is flat and almost looks pretty boring over the last few days, that this will be over sooner rather than later.

问题是，再次强调，我不明白为什么他们不设定一系列明确的目标，并宣布——正如总统所说——他们已经达成了这些目标。

The issue is, again, and I don't understand why they aren't creating a series of objectives declaring, you know, that they could say they've already met as the president said.

而最重要的是，问题是这位总统并不擅长通过外交手段，把所有海湾国家聚集在一起，说：我们都做出了巨大的牺牲。

And then the most important thing and the problem is this isn't a president that appreciates diplomacy to get all of the Gulf nations together and say, we've all made huge sacrifices here.

我们如何才能让你们所有人今后都能从中获益？

How do we make this a win for all of you moving forward?

你们最想确保的是什么？

What is it you wanna make sure?

他们可能会说：赶紧滚蛋。

And they might say, just get the fuck out of here.

还是说，你们希望我们确保他们的发射能力被进一步削弱？

Or is it do you want us to ensure that the launch capabilities are further neutered?

你希望确保海军完全丧失在霍尔木兹海峡布雷或部署水雷的能力吗？

Do you wanna make sure that the Navy is totally is unable to have any sort of mining capability or to, deploy mines in the Straits Of Hormuz.

但我认为，卢比奥国务卿应该把所有海湾国家召集到一起，问他们：我们如何才能让这场行动对我们所有人，包括你们，都成为一场胜利？

But I would argue that that secretary Rubio should be getting all the Gulf States in a room and saying, how do we make this a win for all of us, including you?

因为在我看来，这场冲突最大的收益，莫过于通过与所有海湾国家——包括以色列——结成联盟，孤立伊朗，让它们相信我们确实是一个强大而负责任的伙伴。

Because to me, again, the biggest benefit coming out of this would be if we isolate Iran through an alliance with all the Gulf countries, including Israel, and such that they have faith that we are, in fact, a really strong responsible partner.

因为现状感觉每天都在恶化，我们正在把它们重新推回伊朗的怀抱，从外交政策的角度看，这在我看来，是特朗普政府和卢比奥国务卿犯下的最根本性错误。

Because it feels as if it feels as if every day that is weakening, and, again, we are shoving them back into the arms of Iran, which is really from a foreign policy perspective, in my view, on a meta level, the biggest mistake of the Trump administration and secretary Rubio.

他们误以为，凭借占全球三分之一的GDP，就能对抗另外三分之二。

And that is they're under the impression with a third of the world's GDP, we can take on the other two thirds.

过去我们能做到这一点，是因为我们彼此合作，曾是全球约60%到70%的军事力量和GDP的运营核心。

We used to be able to do that because we cooperated, and we were the operating system for call it 60 or 70% of the world's military and GDP.

但单打独斗违背了地缘政治中所有基本的战略原则——最成功的地缘政治行动，都是通过合作与西方团结一致，实现整体大于部分之和。

But going at it alone is contrary to every basic notion of strategy in geopolitics, and that is the most successful geopolitical action are where the whole is greater than the sum of its parts because of cooperation and a unified West.

我们曾经拥有这样一个契机，我认为现在依然拥有：我不愿说‘西方’，但称其为资本主义阵营或现代世界，能联合起来，向伊朗及其他问题国家展现一个包括海湾国家在内的统一阵线。

And we had a we had a moment, and I think still think we have that moment, where I don't wanna say the West, but call it capitalist or, you know, the modern world comes together and presents a united front to Iran and other rogue nations that includes the Gulf States.

那就是那个时刻。

And that was the moment.

感觉那个时刻正在流逝。

It feels like that moment is passing.

在我们继续之前，杰斯，你有什么想法吗？

Any thoughts before we move on here, Jess?

没有。

No.

我同意你的看法，我在想，下个月特朗普要去北京，或者说是应该去。

I I I agree with you, and I'm I'm thinking about, you know, next month, Trump goes to Beijing or is supposed to.

到那时，我们看起来会是什么样子？

And what do we look like for that meeting?

我的意思是，这件事必须在那之前完成。

I mean, this has to be done by then.

对吧？

Right?

我推测是这样。

I would presume.

而且看起来，那些退出机制正在发生。

And it seems like, you know, the off ramps are are happening.

但我担心的是，外界对我们能力的观感、我们领导力的强弱，以及他们是否充分思考了全球范围内能够制衡中国影响力的重要联盟，确保北京无法掌握我们的底牌。

But I am concerned about that, like, what the perception is of our capabilities, how strong our leadership is, how much they're thinking through important alliances all over the world that can counteract the influence of China and make sure that, you know, Beijing doesn't have our proverbial number.

每个人都应该听《中国解读》这个节目。

Everyone should listen to China Decode.

他们经常讨论这个问题，这是另一个以中国为主题的媒体播客。

They talk about this all the time, which is another proxy media podcast.

但我确实怀疑，在他们试图缓和局势时，是否在心里想着：还有更大的鱼要钓，可以通过外交手段更好地约束伊朗，而这种外交需要结合商业合作，因为每个人都只想变得更富有，如果可能的话，他们愿意在许多问题上做出妥协。

But I definitely wonder if that's in the back of their minds as they're trying to deescalate from this, that there are, proverbially speaking, bigger fish to fry, and there would be a way to keep Iran more in check through diplomacy, and it's diplomacy plus business deals because everybody just wants to get richer, and they're willing to compromise on a whole host of things if that's possible.

但你刚才提到的那次重要会晤，应该是在两周前的周六袭击发生之前。

But the time for that big meeting that you were just talking about was before these strikes happened two Saturdays ago.

你知道的。

You know?

如果我能更早地让海湾国家了解美国和以色列的真实想法，而不是仅仅通过社交媒体公开宣示，而是与他们进行真正有信任的外交对话，讨论我们对导弹能力、核能力等各方面的担忧，同时配合与阿曼和伊朗就达成新的核协议展开的谈判，这对我们会更有利。

And I wonder if cluing in The Gulf States more as to what The US and Israel were thinking, trusted partners, not just, you know, broadcasting it over social media, but having, you know, real diplomatic conversations about the concerns that we have about missile capabilities, nuclear capabilities, whatever it is, on top of the talks with the Omanis and the Iranians to try to get a new nuclear deal would have been to our benefit.

等一切尘埃落定后，我们要弥补这些国家将变得非常困难，毕竟我们花掉了他们数十亿美元，因为他们不得不自卫。

And it's going to be very hard to make it up to these countries after all is said and done when we have spent billions of their dollars because they've had to defend themselves.

我们确实在提供弹药和资金援助，但这些国家仍承受着巨大代价——我认为，他们原本以为自己只是在和这个人以及我们在经济合作上的新盟友以色列做些生意。

And we're helping with munitions and money, but there's still a great cost to each of these nations who I think thought, generally speaking, were just making business deals with this guy and our new allies in Israel as well as as far as economic cooperation goes.

但现在却发生了流血事件，我们的资金大量外流，而谁来补充我们的军火库存呢？因为我们根本没预料到会与伊朗在三月爆发战争。

And now there's bloodshed, and there's a whole lot of money flying out of our door, and who is going to refill our stockpile because we didn't plan on a March war with Iran.

对吧？

Right?

这根本不在我们的计划之内。

That that wasn't on our schedule.

我不知道该如何修复这类关系，尤其是当它们还如此新近的时候。

And I don't know how you repair those kinds of relationships, especially when they're so new.

像我们长期以来建立的那些联盟确实有其价值，我依然相信，欧洲联盟、北约等联盟将继续与我们携手走向未来。

You know, there's something to these long term alliances that we've had, and I hold out faith that the European alliance, the NATO alliance, etcetera, that that will carry on with us far into the future.

但海湾国家在很大程度上是新朋友。

But Gulf nations are new friends to a large degree.

我认为我们在应对冲突时并没有表现出应有的姿态。

And I don't think that we're showing up properly when it comes to conflict.

也许我们在商业开发和建造新度假胜地方面做得不错，但过去十天表明，我们是一个相当不可靠的伙伴，我们会花你的钱，而你则为我们流血。

Maybe we are in business development and building a new resort wherever, but I think the last ten days have shown that we're a pretty unreliable partner, and that we will spend your money, and you will shed blood for us.

我不确定你在另一边能得到什么。

And I'm not sure what you get on the other side.

是的。

Yeah.

所以，看看一些民调，36%的美国居民对特朗普处理伊朗问题的方式表示认可。

So just looking at some of the polls, 36% of US residents approve of how Trump is dealing with Iran.

更准确的说法是，64%的人不认可。

A better way to say that is 64% don't approve.

86%的民主党人和超过61%的独立选民反对美国对伊朗采取军事行动。

86% of Democrats and more than 61% of independents oppose US military action in Iran.

再说说这个分裂的国家。

And talk about a nation divided.

84%的共和党人要么强烈支持要么支持美国在该地区的军事介入。

84% of Republicans either strongly support or support American military involvement in the region.

70%的共和党人认为伊朗是一个主要威胁，高于2025年的64%。

70% of Republicans, up from 64% in 2025, perceive Iran to be a major threat.

只有27%的民主党人持此观点，低于之前的38%。

27% of Democrats, down from 38% share this view.

所以，再次问你，你对此有何看法？

So, again, how do you feel about this?

如果你是民主党人或共和党人，问我吧

Ask me if you're a Democrat or Republican or

不过所有人都反对地面部队进驻。

Though everyone is against boots on the ground.

是的。

Yeah.

这似乎是某种

That seems to be something that's

根深蒂固的东西。

part of the in the sand.

你从一开始就提到了这一点，而且你提到的另一点我觉得非常有趣，我之前从未考虑过：自9/11以来，你们这一代很多人参军，却觉得自己吃了亏，因此特别反对地面部队介入。

You brought you brought that up from the very beginning that, also, what you brought up, I thought was really interesting I hadn't considered, was that your generation since 09/11 where a lot of people signed up and felt like they got a bad deal, is especially opposed to boots on the ground.

还有一则刚刚出炉的消息。

There's also this story that just came out.

我认为Axios率先报道了这件事：今年八月，乌克兰人一直恳求我们提供更多支持，比如能帮助我们应对困境、并对俄罗斯产生影响的战斧导弹，但他们还试图向我们推销一种经过实战检验、可用于击落伊朗无人机的技术。

I think Axios had the scoop, that back in August, the Ukrainians who had been begging us for more support, right, for the Tomahawk missiles that would have really helped when we got into trouble even because of the effect on Russia, that they tried to sell this battle proven tech for downing Iranian drones.

他们做了一整套PowerPoint演示，但我们基本上回绝了。

They did a whole PowerPoint presentation, and we basically said, no.

谢谢。

Thank you.

但他们说：不行。

And they said, no.

如果你需要对抗中东地区的国家比如伊朗，这将会非常有效，但他们却忽视了这一点。

This is gonna be really good if you need to go up against folks in the Middle East like Iran, and they were dismissed.

而且显然，政府内部对此感到非常后悔，这完全说得通，真是早知如此、悔不当初。

And apparently, there's a lot of regret within the administration, which totally makes sense, like, coulda, woulda, shoulda.

但我不知道其他国家是如何更关心我们的福祉，或者比我们更早地做好规划的。

But I don't know how other countries are thinking more about our well-being or planning ahead better than we were.

当然，最讽刺的是，居然是乌克兰人。

And it's just so ironic, of course, that it's the Ukrainians.

对吧？

Right?

正是他们主动来找我们，说：如果你们陷入这种困境，我们可以用这种方式帮你们脱身。

That we're the ones that came to us and said, if you get into this kind of mess, this is the way that we can help you get out of it.

而现在，我们却在最后一刻不得不向他们求助，而他们也前来援助我们。

And now last minute, we've had to call them, and they have come to our aid.

但今天早上让我震惊的是，他们竟然真的做了一份完整的PPT。

But the fact that there was literally a PowerPoint presentation is blowing my mind this morning.

我认为，从这次事件中得出的一个教训，和从乌克兰战争中得出的教训是一样的，那就是非对称战争。

Well, I think one of the learnings that's gonna come out of this is the same learning that's coming out of the Ukraine war, and that is asymmetric warfare.

我们的战斧导弹价值数百万美元，而沙希德无人机，我认为，成本是

And that is our Tomahawks cost millions and the Shaheed drones, I believe, cost

2万美元。

20 k.

2万？

It's 20?

2万美元。

20 k.

我们花了400万美元来对抗价值2万美元的武器。

We've spent $4,000,000 for $20,000 to to combat.

是的。

Yeah.

而且这让我也不知道怎么说。

And it's I don't know.

比如，那到底是什么？

Like, what is it?

复仇是

Revenge is a

一个残酷的情人。

A cruel mistress.

复仇是一道凉了才更美味的菜。

Revenge is a dish bester cold.

我只是很喜欢美国人向乌克兰人寻求军事建议这个想法。

It I just love the idea of the Americans leaning on the Ukrainians for for military advice.

总之，好了，杰西。

Anyways alright, Jess.

在我们结束之前，有个大新闻。

Before we go, some big news.

这个周末我们会参加西南偏南大会。

We'll be at South by Southwest this weekend.

太好了。

Yay.

是的。

Yeah.

对吧？

Right?

在伟大的德克萨斯州。

In the great state of Texas.

我太兴奋了，而且气温会达到80度。

I'm so excited, and it'll be 80 degrees.

过去几天这里天气很不错。

It's been nice here the last couple of days.

知道这个感觉真好。

It's been beautiful to know.

没什么比得上八。

Nothing like eight.

我知道。

I know.

所以我们会在西南偏南活动上。

So we'll be at South by Southwest.

如果你在那里，看到杰斯或者我，请打个招呼。

If you're down there and you see either Jess or me, please say hi.

我们真的很友好。

We do we're friendly.

此外，除了现在每周五天之外，《激进的中间派》现在也在Substack上提供。

Also, in addition to now being five days a week, Raging Moderates is now available on Substack.

订阅者将获得无广告的节目、直播，以及与杰斯、我和其他听众互动的平台。

Subscribers will get ad free episodes, livestreams, and a place to engage with, Jess and me and other listeners.

请访问 ragingmoderates.propmedia.com 找到我们。

Find us at ragingmoderates.propmedia.com.

再次提醒，是 ragingmoderates.prop2media.com。

Again, that's ragingmoderates.prop2media.com.

本期节目就到这里。

That's all for this episode.

非常感谢您今天加入我们。

Thank you for so much for joining us today.

待会儿见。

See you later.