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本节目由Section提供支持。
Support for the show comes from Section.
OpenAI和Anthropic最近的联合项目都指向同一个结论。
The recent joint ventures from OpenAI and Anthropic point to the same thing.
企业如果只是简单地发放AI许可证，是无法从中获得实际价值的。
Enterprises are not going to get value from AI by just rolling out licenses.
如果你正在部署AI，又希望获得真正的投资回报，那就必须投入资源，改变员工的工作方式。
If you're deploying AI and you want real ROI, you need to invest in changing how people work.
如果你想快速推进这件事，而且想找一支真正懂行的团队，那就该联系我们的公司Section。
If you wanna do this fast with a team who actually knows what they're doing, you should talk to our company, Section.
说实话，这其实是个付费广告，有点儿怪。
This is actually a paid ad, it's a little bit weird.
坦白讲，我是Section的投资人，因为我相信AI领域最被忽视的部分，就是我所说的‘落地层’——帮助公司提升员工能力，更好地利用AI。
Full disclosure, I'm an investor in Section as I feel that the part of AI that is most underinvested is what I call the adoption layer, and that is helping companies upscale their employee base to better leverage AI.
Section已经帮助耐克、Autodesk、NASCAR、百威英博、阳狮集团，还有上百家企业从AI中获得了实际价值。
Anyways, Section has helped Nike, Autodesk, NASCAR, AB InBev, and Publicis, and a 100 other firms get value from AI.
他们可以帮你搞定。
They can do it for you.
访问 sectionai.com 联系他们。
Get in touch at sectionai.com.
访问 sectionai.com 了解更多信息。
That's scctionai.com to learn more.
当你终于找到了自己的方向，你就想让全世界都知道。
When you finally find your thing, you want the whole world to know about that thing.
于是你用 Canva 把它做得更出色、更亮眼。
So you use a thing called Canva to make it an even bigger and better thing.
不管是做宣传单、做演示文稿，还是设计周边产品，只要你能想到的，都能用它让别人看见、感受、爱上你的作品。
Whether you want to create flyers for that thing, make presentations for that thing, or design merch for that thing, you can do anything so people can see your thing, feel your thing, love your thing.
一转眼，它就成了热门话题。
The next thing you know, it's a thing.
Canva，让一切变得重要的工具。
Canva, the thing that makes anything a thing.
你是不是觉得卡住了？
Are you feeling stuck?
我马上要结束这段工作了，之前我是Peloton的副总裁兼首席教练。
I'm wrapping up so I'm VP and head instructor at Peloton.
我亲眼见证过数以百万计的人试图改变人生，也听过那五句话反复阻碍着他们。
I've watched literally millions of people try to transform their lives, and I have heard the same five sentences hold people back.
所以这周在《Project Swagger》里，我们要做一次自我对话的全面检查。
So this week on Project Swagger, we're doing a self talk audit.
我会逐一指出这五句有害的话，告诉你它们正在让你付出什么代价，并给你替换方案，帮你释放真正的潜力。
I am going to name each of these destructive sentences and tell you what it's costing you and give you the reframe, the swap you need to unlock your true potential.
我们开始吧。
Let's go.
现在就关注《Project Swagger》，在你常用的播客平台都能找到。
Follow Project Swagger now wherever you get your podcasts.
第四百零二集。
Episode 402.
402是美国内布拉斯加州东部的区号。
Four zero two is the area code covering Eastern Nebraska.
2002年，欧元正式作为现金投入使用。
In 2002, the euro was officially introduced as cash.
如果每有一个女人觉得我不够有魅力，我就得一欧元，那迟早女人会觉得我很有魅力。
If I had a euro for every woman that finds me really unattractive, eventually, women would find me attractive.
这估计都算仇恨犯罪了。
Pretty sure that's a hate crime.
开始吧。
Go.
开始吧。
Go.
开始吧。
Go.
欢迎收听《Profg Pod》第402期。
Welcome to the four hundred and second episode of the profg pod.
塔特兰队要来城里了。
Team Tartan is coming to town.
没错。
That's right.
我们要对阵摩洛哥。
We're up against Morocco.
我们小组里短暂地排在了第一名。
We are top of the table in our flight, in our match group for a brief time.
苏格兰队一共进过12次世界杯，但从来没突破过小组赛，是唯一一支从未出线的球队。
Scotland has been in the World Cup 12 times and has never made it past the group stage, only team to have never done so.
我想这应该是我们自1998年之后第一次重返世界杯。
It's the first time we've been there since '19, I think, '98.
是吗？
Is that right?
1998年。
'98.
我真是太兴奋了。
So I'm super excited.
你看得出来吧，我不知道你能不能看到。
As you can see, don't I know if you can see.
我都不确定这场比赛有没有直播。
I don't even know if this is televised.
我穿的是官方球衣。
I'm wearing I'm wearing the official kit.
哎呀，小丫头。
Yo wee lass.
我等不及了。
I can't wait.
我给孩子们买了球衣。
I bought jerseys for my boys.
他们不肯穿，那我就一次性穿三件。
They refused to wear them, so I'm going to wear three of them.
这下让他们瞧瞧。
That'll show them.
我特别兴奋。
I'm super excited.
明天晚上我打算去酒吧。
I'm going to go to a pub tomorrow night.
好了，再说回我这儿。
Anyways, back to me.
还是说回我。
Back to me.
当然了，如果他们被淘汰了，我就转而支持英格兰队。
If, of course, they get knocked out, I'll then be rooting for Team England.
如果这两支队伍都出局了，那我就改支持美国队。
And then if both of those teams get knocked out, I'll digress to win rooting for Team USA.
虽然是美国人，但我真有点厌倦美国队老是赢了。
Despite being American, I'm kind of sick of America winning everything.
不过话说回来，我对世界杯真是期待得不得了。
But anyways, so excited about the World Cup.
这是麦克托米奈。
This is McTominay.
如果你还不知道他是谁，到世界杯结束的时候你就肯定知道了。
McTominay, if you don't know who that is, you're gonna know who it is by the end of the World Cup.
我简直太兴奋了。
I am just so excited about this.
我觉得世界杯干了联合国本该干的事——让咱们更亲近，让战争停下来。
I think the World Cup is doing what the UN was supposed to do, and that is, I don't know, bring us closer together and stop wars.
咱们干脆每年都办一届世界杯得了。
We should just have the World Cup like every should have it every year.
为什么不呢？
Why not?
每年都办不就行了。
Just have it every year.
好吧。
Okay.
别说了。
Enough of that.
现在怎么样？
What's happening?
在本期节目中，我们采访了《金融时报》的专栏作家兼首席数据记者约翰·伯恩-默多克。
In today's episode, we speak with John Burn-Murdoch, a columnist and the chief data reporter for the Financial Times.
我们聊了聊为什么现在生孩子的人越来越少，远程办公如何改变社会结构，以及现代生活的高成本是否让建立人际关系变得更加困难。
We discuss why fewer people are having children, how remote work is changing the social fabric, and whether the cost of modern life is making relationships harder to build.
每当嘉宾第一次上我们的播客，我都觉得我们是在发掘一些别人还没注意到的人。这可不是说约翰做得不够好，或者没粉丝——他其实很有名，但我特别喜欢找到这种古怪又深刻的人，可能我们不少听众还没听过他们的声音。
And when it's his first time on the pod, I like to think we discover people that other people haven't heard of, and that's not to say that John doesn't do great work and doesn't have his own following, but I love finding kind of these wonky insightful people that maybe a decent percentage of our listenership hasn't heard from.
这家伙就是其中之一。
And this this guy's one of them.
我以后还要多请他来。
I'm gonna bring him back a bunch.
我觉得这太棒了。
I think it's fantastic.
欢迎收听我们与约翰·伯恩-默多克的对话。
Enjoy our conversation with John Burn-Murdoch.
好的。
Alright.
咱们直接进入正题。
Let's bust right into it.
对。
Yeah.
你在《金融时报》的工作，涉及的很多话题也正是我们这档节目常聊的。
Your work at the Financial Times covers a lot of the same terrain we do on this show.
今天咱们先聊一个我们经常提到、却总没机会深入探讨的话题——生育率的下降，几乎是彻底的、我不知道该怎么形容的崩塌。
Today, we're gonna start with a topic we touch on a lot, but never go as deep as we'd like, and that's the decline, almost the absolute, I don't know, collapse in birth rates.
这对我们思考解决方案意味着什么？
What does that mean for how we think about solutions?
我觉得这里特别值得深入探讨这一点，因为它彻底改变了整个讨论的方向。
I think this is such an interesting line to to draw out here and focus on because it it really changes the conversation quite significantly.
对我来说，谈到出生率下降，其实谈的是单身人群增多，以及年轻成年人中能够拥有幸福稳定关系的人数在减少。
For me, when we talk about falling birth rates, we are really talking about increasing singledom and and just a a decrease in number of young adults who are in happy, stable relationships, period.
这让我觉得，这个问题本质上是一个更广泛的社会问题。
That, for me, makes this a much broader societal question.
不再只是问：那些幸福稳定的伴侣是否觉得自己准备好要孩子了？
It's no longer about oh, do happy stable couples feel that they are in a place where they can have kids?
而是要问：年轻男女是否觉得自己有能力建立一段关系？
It's about do various do young men and women feel like they're in a place where they can couple up?
我觉得这把讨论的重点，至少部分地，从政府惯用的政策工具，转向了一个更宏观的议题——年轻人在从青春期过渡到成年期时普遍面临的困境，尤其是他们在是否能安定下来、组建家庭这件事上感到无力。
And I think it moves the question, moves the conversation, at least in part, away from a focus on the policy levers that governments are used to pushing and pulling and towards this broader conversation that shows up in all sorts of different datasets and young adults struggling in this transition from adolescence to adulthood and particularly struggling when it comes to feeling they're in a position to settle down with someone and everything that comes with that.
我特别喜欢这个话题。
I love this topic.
首先，这确实是个大问题，几乎所有的西方经济体都在经历出生率的急剧下滑。
So first off, this really is a quote unquote big deal, and that is across almost every Western economy, birth rates are plummeting.
那我们为什么要关心这个呢？
And why should we care?
上世纪70年代大家担心的人口爆炸，那颗炸弹其实已经引爆了，但不是炸开，而是塌了。
The population explosion that everyone was worried about in the 70s, that bomb has detonated, but it's imploded not exploded.
如果我们继续让老年人——那些不生产、成本高的人——占年轻有生产力人群的比例越来越高，大部分税收都会花在低效的投入上，也就是养着一群不断给自己加福利的年老体弱群体。
And if we keep increasing the ratio of old unproductive expensive people to young productive people, we're gonna see the majority of our tax revenues go to fairly unproductive investment, and that is taking care of an aging sick population that keeps voting itself more money.
这确实是个危机。
So this really is a crisis.
经济崩溃，有时候就是这么平淡无奇地发生的。
This is kind of the boring way an economy collapses.
约翰，我之前搞错了，我以为这纯粹是个经济问题，只要给年轻人多发点钱，他们就会多生孩子。
What I got wrong, John, was I thought this was simply a matter of economics, that if you put more money in young people's pockets, they'll have more kids.
但事实证明，在日本、韩国和北欧国家，经济激励措施根本没达到预期效果。
And they have found that economic incentives in Japan, and South Korea and Northern European nations actually haven't had the desired effect.
我喜欢你说的那句话，归根结底，人之所以生孩子，是因为他们发生了性关系。
And I like what you're saying about the bottom line is, at a very basic level, people have kids when they have sex.
而他们如果不发生关系，就不会有孩子。
And when they don't have sex, they don't have kids.
正如黛博拉·索所说，我们正面临‘性灭绝’的风险——年轻人在现实中和情感上都彼此疏离了。
And we're in, as Deborah So said, we risk sextinction, and that is young people aren't connecting literally metaphorically and literally.
我觉得这里头牵扯的因素太多了。
And you know, I think there's so many things going on here.
我觉得反酒精运动对生育率有负面影响。
I think the anti alcohol movement is bad for birth rates.
很多孩子都是意外怀上的，等发现以后，才说：好吧，那就生吧。
You know, lot of kids are born accidentally, and then you find out, okay, let's have the thing.
还有房价的问题。
And then housing prices.
房价实际上是一种变相的生育控制。
It ends up that housing prices are a form of birth control.
房价每上涨10%，生育率就下降1%，因为买房这件事往往让人开始认真考虑未来——比如我和前任买了房，接着就开始想：第二间卧室该刷成蓝色还是粉色？是不是该要孩子了？
That every 10% increase in housing prices, there's a 1% decline in birth rates, because housing or buying a house is sort of a my ex and I bought a house, and then we started thinking, okay, do we paint the second bedroom blue or pink, and let's pull a goalie, right?
这是一条通往为人父母的路。
It's a path towards having kids.
另一点是，我想听听你的看法：我怀疑解决办法是让生孩子变得更令人向往，变得更酷、更有面子，说白了就是更有吸引力。
The other thing is, and I want to get your response to this, is that I wonder if the solve is to make having kids more aspirational, making it more, I don't know, I don't know what the term is, prestigious cooler, for lack of a better term.
但我很好奇，你觉得真正的解决办法会是什么？因为这显然不只是钱的问题。
But I'm curious what you think a solve might be here because it doesn't appear to be just just money.
你有什么想法吗？
Any thoughts?
是的。
Yeah.
说到钱这方面，确实有一些证据表明，如果经济激励足够强，多少还是能起到一点作用的。
I mean I mean, one thing on the money side is that there is some evidence that if the financial bonuses, financial incentives are strong enough, that they do move the needle a little bit.
但总的来说，这些措施的作用只是减缓出生率下滑，而不是真正让数字回升。
But generally there, we're still talking about what they do is they slow the decline in birth rates rather than actually causing the number to go up.
所以它们或许有点帮助，但被更大的社会和文化变迁给淹没了。
So they they may be helping, but they're being drowned out by these broader social and cultural shifts.
但我确实同意你的看法。
But I do I do agree with you.
我觉得这里涉及的是各种阻碍，让人难以达到足够安心、稳定、放松的状态去生孩子。
I think we're talking here about various different barriers and frictions to that that come between someone and the point where they are sufficiently secure, stable, relaxed enough to have kids.
住房问题，就像你说的，是其中之一。
Housing, as you say, is one of those.
但屏幕、社交媒体、对异性的负面刻板印象，这些都可能是另一层阻碍，让人难以建立联系。
But screens, social media, negative stereotypes about the opposite sex, all of these things are quite plausibly another layer that is stopping people from connecting.
关于你提到的让生育变得更有声望这个说法，我确实觉得这会有帮助。
On your point about making kids more high status as it were, to use to use that framing, I definitely think that could help.
但同样，这种想法默认了我们现在的情况是有很多幸福的伴侣正等着生孩子。
But, again, I think that kind of assumes that the place we're at is there's loads of happy couples sitting around with no kids.
当然，确实有一部分人是这样。
And to be clear, there are some.
但总体来看，我们现在面临的问题其实是很多人连配对都还没做到。
But by and large, what we're talking about here is just a few people coupling up in the first instance.
或者即使他们在一起了，关系也往往是不稳定的、缺乏安全感的。
Or when they are coupling up, they're in these unstable, insecure relationships.
现在许多国家的新伴侣同居后，分手的可能性反而比生孩子还大，这在历史上是从未有过的。
Like, in many countries now, a new a couple that moves in together is more likely to break up than to have a kid, and that's never been true until now.
所以我还是觉得，我们真正该做的，是让谈恋爱变得更有面子。
So I I still think what we almost wanna do is make having a girlfriend or boyfriend high status.
这话听起来可能有点荒唐，但确实在不少社交媒体上，尤其是对女孩和年轻女性来说，有男朋友反而显得很没劲。
Like and and, you know, that sounds ridiculous to say, but on various social media platforms now, there is this idea, certainly, for girls and young women at least, that having a boyfriend is kinda lame.
坦白说，从某些角度看，这种想法或许也有它的道理，但我认为，这背后既有你提到的那些宏大叙事，也有现实中的各种障碍。
And to be clear, you know, it's it's there may even be a certain validity to that if you look at it in certain ways, but I do think it's about you're right to say it's about these big sweeping narratives as well as the sort of material frictions here.
这里其实存在一个被右翼刻意制造的误解，我认为，数据并不支持这种说法——它把不生孩子、生活不幸福的责任全推给了选择事业而放弃家庭的女性。
And there's a myth here, right, the far right fomented, in my opinion, a myth that the data doesn't support that this rests at the feet of women who opt for their career at the at the expense of family and end up childless and unhappy.
实际情况是，家庭越富裕，生孩子的可能性反而越高。
And the reality is is that wealthier the household, the more likely they are to have kids.
是的。
Yeah.
不管哪个国家，情况都一样。
From country to country to country, it's the same thing.
收入更高、教育程度更好的人，无论男女，更有可能建立稳定的关系、拥有稳定的住所，并养育孩子。
So higher income and more well educated people, men and women, are the ones who are far more likely to end up in those stable relationships, stable housing, having kids.
在伴侣数量减少、孩子数量下降这方面，绝大多数都发生在最贫穷、教育程度最低的人群中。
Almost all of the action here in terms of fewer couples and fewer kids is happening among the poorest and least well educated.
而且，我这个人总爱把什么都看成钉子，我觉得很大一部分原因是我们没能产出足够多经济上和情感上都靠谱的男性。
And also, and I'm a bit of a hammer that sees nails everywhere, I think a lot of it is we aren't producing enough economically and emotionally viable men.
女性终止妊娠最常提到的理由就是：没有可靠的伴侣。
The number one stated reason for terminating a pregnancy is that they don't have a reliable partner.
这在历史上一直如此，但如今可能变得更严重了。
This is something that has been true throughout history, but it's possibly becoming more true.
如果我们从年轻男女相对的经济地位来看，他们之间的差距现在比以往任何时候都小。
If we think about this in terms of the the relative sort of financial economic status of young men and women, that gap is now closer than it's ever been.
因此，越来越多的年轻女性，尤其是收入处于下半段的那些，环顾四周后会想：我根本看不到什么理想的选择，没人能提供经济支持，更别提其他方面的支持了，而我要做的这个决定，会深刻影响我的人生。
And therefore, there are an increasing number of young women, especially again in that sort of bottom half of the income distribution, who look around and say, you know, I don't see any brilliant options here in terms of someone who could provide the financial support, let alone other kinds of support, for me to make this really, really big decision that's gonna have a big impact on my life.
所以必须指出，这里确实存在实实在在的经济和财务因素。
So it's important to say that there are real financial and economic drivers here.
只不过我觉得，数字环境常常影响人们对这些因素的看法。
It's just that I think the digital environment often influences how those are perceived.
约翰，我有个不太常规的观点，但我想听听你的看法：我觉得远程办公和反酒精运动可能是导致生育率下降的原因。
And John, sort of less conventional thesis, but I want you to respond to them, I think that possibly remote work and the anti alcohol movement have resulted in lower birth rates.
三分之一的恋情都是在工作中开始的，但没有哪个HR愿意承认这一点。
One in three relationships begin at work, and no HR manager wants to admit that.
不过，其中99%的关系都是双方自愿的。
But 99% of those relationships are consensual.
我公司里有12对夫妻是在这儿认识的，结婚时我才知道他们原来在谈恋爱。
I've been to 12 weddings of people that met at my company, and I had no idea they were sleeping together.
但这其实是一件好事。
But it was a wonderful thing.
这简直是一种善举。
It was a mitzvah.
他们在工作中相识，相爱，然后结婚了。
They met at work, they fell in love, and they got married.
我对此也听到过一些质疑，我能理解，但我忍不住想，自疫情以来英国关闭了40%的酒吧和夜总会，这会不会是一种隐形的避孕方式？
And I've gotten some pushback on this, and I understand why, but I wonder if 40% of the pubs and nightclubs closing in The UK since COVID is a form of birth control.
是的。
Yeah.
归根结底，还是在于人们有多少机会去相互了解。
Again, it comes down to opportunities for people to get to know each other.
尤其是那些不经意间遇到潜在伴侣的场合。
And especially those situations where you get to know each other, you maybe find a potential partner accidentally.
对吧？
Right?
这同样适用于在工作中相识的人。
And that's that applies to people who get to know each other at work.
也适用于那些因为喝了一杯酒才彼此走近的人——要是没喝酒，他们可能根本不会走到一起。
It applies to people who get to to know each other after having a drink in a way that maybe they wouldn't have done if they hadn't.
而且说清楚一点，我猜你也这么觉得，我们并不是在提倡大量饮酒。
And, you know, to be clear, and I suspect you feel the same here, we're not advocating heavy alcohol use.
年轻人饮酒减少，这本身当然是好事，但我完全同意你的看法——那种非正式、偶然的社交环境特别重要，让你能遇到原本根本不会认识的人，慢慢了解对方，这一切都是从这儿开始的。
There's obviously a lot of the reduction in alcohol consumption among young people as being positive, but I absolutely agree with you that creating these kind of unstructured accidental environments where you meet someone you might never otherwise have met, you get to know them, that's the start of all this.
幸福稳定的亲密关系和孩子，都是这些随意闲逛、放松相处的后续结果。
A happy stable relationship and kids are downstream of a lot of sort of unstructured hanging out.
我觉得你说得对，由于各种原因，年轻人这种随意的社交活动，比十年前、二十年前少多了。
And I think you're absolutely right that for various reasons, that unstructured hanging out among young people is happening a lot less than it was a decade or two ago.
我特别喜欢这个话题。
I love this topic.
那我们继续往下聊。
So let's move on.
年轻人、虚无主义，还有经济机会。
Young people, nihilism, economic opportunity.
你的文章提到，年轻人心理健康状况的恶化，主要——甚至可能是唯一——发生在英语国家。
Your article makes the point that mental health deterioration among young adults is primarily, maybe exclusively, an English speaking world phenomenon.
欧洲大陆并没有呈现出同样的趋势。
Continental Europe doesn't show the same pattern.
那么，约翰，所谓英语国家到底有什么独特之处呢？
What's unique about the Anglosphere, so to speak, John?
我的意思是，这个问题会有各种各样的答案，而且我自己也还在不断追问。
I mean, this one is there will be so many answers to this, and it's very much a question I'm still asking.
但我觉得，其中一个几乎可以确定是原因之一的因素，归根结底还是住房问题。
But one of the answers that I think is almost certainly part of what's going on comes down to housing.
而且，每个国家都在谈论住房危机。
And, well, every country talks about the housing crisis.
对吧？
Right?
你看，房租一直在涨，房价到处都在涨。
Like, rents have been rising, house prices rising all over the place.
但这种状况对年轻人住房安全的影响，在英语国家似乎确实要大得多。
But the impact that's had on young people's housing security does seem to be significantly larger in the English speaking world.
所以伦敦、纽约、旧金山，还有都柏林、悉尼、加拿大的一些地区，年轻人群——比如二十七八岁到三十出头的人——拥有自己住房的比例已经大幅下滑。
So London, New York, San Francisco, but also Dublin, Sydney, parts of Canada, the share of young people, let's say people in their late twenties, early thirties, who own their home has collapsed.
这个年龄段的人跟父母住在一起的比例却显著上升了。
The share of people in that age group who live with their parents has risen significantly.
虽然住房负担能力在欧洲很多地方也变差了，但对年轻人来说，那种从租房过渡到拥有稳定长期住所、感觉终于安顿下来的转变，受到的冲击在英语国家要严重得多。
And while housing affordability has also got worse in, let's say, across much of Europe, the impact it has had on that transition into secure, stable, long term housing to that point where you feel like I've I've got a stable base now, that impact has been seems to have been much deeper in the English speaking world.
我觉得这特别 destabilizing，而且有相当可靠的证据表明，英语国家中我们看到的幸福感下降，至少有一部分原因就在于年轻人无法搬出父母家，或者买不起自己的房子，这种不安全感在加剧。
And I think that is so destabilizing, and there is decent evidence here that at least a portion of the decline in well-being that we see in the English speaking world can be explained by that increased insecurity due to people not being able to leave the parental home or not move into their own home.
大量数据显示，如今的年轻人在很多方面拥有的东西，和三四十年前的年轻人相比，只多不少，有些方面甚至更多。
There's a lot of data showing that people today, young people today on a lot of dimensions, have as much or maybe even more on some levels than young people thirty, forty years ago.
他们过得也没像我们这一代人说的那么惨。
And they're not doing as bad as people like me would claim.
但问题在于，幸福不是看你拥有什么，而是看你拥有的一切和你期待之间的差距。
But the problem is, or the issue is happiness isn't a function of what you have, it's a function of the delta in between what you have and your expectations.
我觉得现在的期待，是被每天二十条推送不断塑造的——告诉你，要是你没有一个肌肉发达的男朋友，没在SpaceX上市时赚到三百万元，没在炒币上赚到钱，那你就是个失败者。
And my sense is the expectations are created by two ten notifications a day, telling you if you don't have a boyfriend with ripped ads and haven't made $3,000,000 on the SpaceX IPO or selling and trading East, that you have failed.
所以这些期望，当你看到周围所有人都在圣特罗佩开派对、坐私人飞机，其实全是假的。
And so the expectations, when you see what feels like everyone around you partying in Saint Tropez or flying on a Gulf Stream, which is all bullshit.
对吧？
Right?
我始终觉得，那些天天拍私人飞机照片的人，根本就不是真有私人飞机。
I was I maintained, anyone who takes pictures of a private jet does not own a private jet.
那种觉得自己失败的感觉，无处不在。
The feeling that you're failing is just everywhere.
而社交媒体又进一步加温，人们不断争吵，简直就像一台专门摧毁自尊的机器。
And then social media itself raises the temperature, and people are constantly arguing and constantly it feels like it's literally an esteem destroying machine.
而且我真的觉得，我们不能低估这些在线平台对年轻人心理健康的伤害——它们为了赚钱，故意切断他们和现实世界的联系，让他们以为线上关系也能带来满足，结果导致孤独，尤其是年轻男性，缺乏友情、导师、浪漫关系，等到三十岁，就窝在地下室，发胖、焦虑、抑郁。
And also, I just don't think we can underestimate the damage that these online platforms have done to the mental health of young people, as these platforms have an economic incentive to separate them from and their offline relationships and convince them they can have a reasonable faction of online, which creates isolation, especially among young men, and a lack of reward, lack of friendship, mentorship, romantic relationships, and they wake up at 30 kind of in their basement obese, anxious, and depressed.
感觉有太多因素在联手摧毁他们的自信、人生目标，还设下不切实际的期望。
It just senses it feels like there's so many things setting them up for a lack of self esteem, a lack of purpose, and unreasonable expectations.
在讨论可能的解决方案之前，你们还有什么想补充的吗？
Any follow on comments before we talk about potential solutions?
是的。
Yeah.
我觉得，确实如此，这又是物质世界和数字世界之间的相互作用。
I I think, again, that's that's exactly right, and it's this interplay between the material world and the digital world again.
对吧？
Right?
根据许多估算，如今年轻人的就业市场特别艰难。
So by many estimates, the labor market right now for young people is particularly tough.
每个职位都有数百人申请，所以在职场上你收到的拒绝也更多。
You've got hundreds of applications per job, so you're you're getting more rejection in the workplace.
在约会应用上，你同样面临更多拒绝。
You're also getting more rejection from dating apps.
确实存在不少现实问题，比如我们之前提到的住房状况。
So there are there are real negatives here, the housing situation we talked about.
但正如你所说，这一切都被一种滤镜放大了——这个滤镜不断展示最成功的人，或者更准确地说，是人为制造出的、你那些最成功同龄人生活的假象，同时还在不断推送各种负面新闻，这些事可能直接影响你的心理健康。
But then as you say, that's all refracted through this lens that is constantly both showing you the the most successful, or to your point, artificially artificial sense of what the most your most successful peers are doing, and it's also highlighting bad things in the world, bad things that maybe affect your mental health.
所以说你说得对，问题确实更复杂了，因为这件事牵涉的方面太多了，不过我相信我们很快就会谈到解决办法。
So that's exactly right, and and it does make the solutions a bit trickier because there are so many facets to this, but I'm sure we'll come on to that shortly.
对。
Yeah.
我想聊聊可能的解决方式。
I wanna talk potentially about some solutions.
我看过一些研究，说新加坡和以色列的年轻人抑郁率相对较低，其中一个关键原因是兵役制度。
Some of the research I've seen says that Singapore and Israel actually have fairly low levels of young adult depression, and that a big component of that is national service.
让年轻人在年纪还小的时候就找到目标和身份认同，而不是一上来就把自我价值和被排斥、被伤害的感觉绑在一起，或者让他们去敌视别人。
That at a young age giving kids a sense of purpose and identity, and not immediately having their identity being a source of like feeling persecuted or victimized, or giving them a reason to not like other people.
我是民主党人。
I'm a Democrat.
这就是我的身份认同，任何在政治上不同意我的人，不只是说我的观点错了，他们仿佛是在说我自己这个人就是错的。
That's my identity, and anyone who disagrees with me politically is not only saying my argument's wrong, they're saying I am wrong as a person.
我记得以前谈恋爱的时候——我不确定你是不是这样，但反正我那时候根本说不上来对方的政治立场。
I remember when I I don't know about you, but when I was dating I couldn't tell you what the politics were about that person.
我们那时候根本不在乎。
We just didn't care.
现在每个人都要把自己标榜成某个特殊利益群体，不幸的是，这常常意味着觉得别人要么在迫害自己，要么不如自己的群体重要。
And now everybody just identifies as a special interest group, which unfortunately often involves believing that either of them have victimized or other groups are not as worthy as theirs.
国民服务能让年轻人产生归属感和目标感，让他们走出家门，接触户外，与他人合作，找到人生方向，结交朋友、导师，甚至伴侣，学会一项技能，真正为社会做点事。
And national service gives these young people a sense of unity, a sense of purpose, gets them out of the house, outdoors, working with other people, feeling a sense of purpose, finding friends, mentors, mates, getting good at something, being in service, if you will.
所以我挺支持国民服务这个想法。
So I like the idea of national service.
我特别赞成禁止16岁以下的孩子使用社交媒体。
I really like the idea of making sure kids that we ban social media from people under the age of 16.
我觉得这其中有一部分是经济问题。
I do think some of it's economic.
我觉得你提到的，得给年轻人一条能获得住房的路子，这很重要。
I think you gotta give kids, young people, a path to housing per your comments.
我也喜欢一些非传统的解决办法。
I I like some nontraditional solutions.
任何有舞蹈活动的机构都可以享受税收抵免。
A tax credit for any institution that has dancing.
我读到一个特别有意思的说法，现在的孩子都不跳舞了。
I read this really interesting thing that kids don't dance anymore.
跳舞是求偶过程中关键的一环。
Dancing is a key component of mating.
所有哺乳动物都是这样。
It happens with all mammals.
这中间有个仪式性的过程。
There's like a ritual period.
现在没人跳舞了，因为他们怕被拍下来，而且也不喝酒了。
And no one dances anymore because they're worried about being on camera, and they're not drinking.
解决这些问题其实有一系列办法，比如为年轻人提供补贴住房、推行国民服务、鼓励设有舞蹈和饮酒活动的场所，让年轻人走出家门，同时限制青春期大脑发育阶段的屏幕使用时间。
There's just a series of solutions or fixes, whether it's subsidized housing for younger people, national service, encouraging establishments that have dancing and maybe drinking to get them out of the house, limiting the amount of screen time they have for people as their brain is getting wired through puberty.
但像这些重大的问题一样，没有哪一种办法能一劳永逸。
But like all of these big, big issues, there's no silver bullet.
这其实是一系列需要共同作用的措施，来应对整个大问题。
It's a variety of things that need to kind of attack the the larger corpus, if you will.
你觉得呢，约翰？
Any thoughts, John?
是的。
Yeah.
你刚才说的时候，我突然意识到，这些措施的共同点都是让人面对面互动的活动。
I mean, it struck me as you're saying that the common thread that runs through all of those is activities involving other people face to face.
比如国民服务，这显然是一个例子。
Like, national service is an obviously obviously an example of that.
跳舞也是。
Dancing is another.
就像我们现在这样在聊天。
And it feels like we're having this conversation.
我们现在已经能讨论国民服务这种话题了，而对你我这样偏左的人而言，几十年前这听起来还很奇怪。但如今人与人之间的直接互动已经少到这种地步，我们甚至都不觉得需要再谈这些了。
We're getting as far along as talking about things like national service, which decade or two, as you say, for for people on to the left of center like ourselves would have seemed strange, but interpersonal reaction has declined so much that we're not having to have that conversation.
这让我想起几年前我做过的一项分析，发现年轻人现在花在这些活动上的时间比过去少了很多，而这些活动恰恰都涉及与他人互动，而且他们自己也认为最有意义。
I this you also reminded me of an an analysis I did a couple years back where I found that the activities that young people are spending significantly less time on today than in the past are, a, all the ones that involve other people, and, b, all the ones that they consider the most meaningful.
为人父母能给人带来无比强烈的意义感。
So parenting gives people an incredible sense of meaning.
我家里现在有个快两岁的孩子，他每天早上提醒我该做什么，该为什么而活。
I, you know, I've got a almost two year old at home at the moment, and that tells you what to wake up and do every day.
他让我清楚自己今天是谁。
It tells you who you are today.
也让我明白，明年、二十年后我会成为什么样的人。
It tells you who you're gonna be next year in or in twenty years.
我确实担心，这里存在一个恶性循环：我们不断给人更多理由去怀疑自己。
And I do want I do worry that there's this negative feedback loop here where we give people more reasons to feel insecure about themselves.
于是他们觉得自己不够安全，不敢建立关系，不敢生孩子，结果就失去了那些本可以带来意义和安全感的来源。
They therefore don't feel secure enough to have a relationship, have kids, and that is depriving them of where a lot of that meaning and security would come from.
我们稍后回来，插播一段简短的广告。
We'll be right back after a quick break.
本节目由Z Biotics赞助支持。
Support for the show comes from Z Biotics.
说实话吧。
Let's face it.
我们谁都没以前那么快恢复了，尤其是大醉一场之后。
None of us bounce back like we used to, especially after a great night out.
一个办法是喝Z Biotics的餐前饮品。
One solution, pre alcohol by Z Biotics.
Z Biotics的餐前益生菌饮品是全球首款基因改造益生菌产品。
ZBiotics pre alcohol probiotic drink is the world's first genetically engineered probiotic.
它由博士科学家研发，专门应对饮酒后的难受早晨。
It was invented by PhD scientists to tackle rough mornings after drinking.
原理是这样的。
Here's how it works.
喝酒后，酒精会在肠道里转化成一种有毒的代谢物。
When you drink, alcohol gets converted into a toxic byproduct in the gut.
让人第二天难受的，不是脱水，而是这种代谢产物的积累。
It's a buildup of this product, not dehydration that's to blame for rough days after drinking.
Pre Alcohol 能产生一种酶，把这种代谢物分解掉。
Pre alcohol produces an enzyme to break this byproduct down.
记住，晚上喝酒前先喝 Pre Alcohol，适量饮酒，第二天才能状态更好。
Just remember to make pre alcohol your first drink of the night, drink responsibly, and feel your best tomorrow.
我经常聊酒精这事儿。
I speak about alcohol a lot.
我是喜欢喝酒的。
I enjoy alcohol.
年纪越大，我越想控制一下。
As I get older, I'm trying to moderate it.
说实话，现在我的肝脏，已经不像年轻时那样能扛得住酒了。
And so let's be honest, my liver can't process it the way it used to when I was a younger man.
但只要我出去喝酒，知道今晚要喝，我都会先喝上一瓶 Z Biotics。
But when I do go out and know I'm gonna be drinking, I start the night with Z Biotics.
在他们成为播客的广告商之前，我就已经在用了。
And I was doing this before they were an advertiser on the podcast.
访问 zbiotics.com/galloway 了解更多，结账时输入代码 Galloway，首单立享八五折。
Go to zbiotics.com/galloway to learn more and get 15% off your first order when you use Galloway at checkout.
Z Biotics 现在提供全额退款保证。
Z Biotics is back with a 100% money back guarantee.
如果你有任何不满意，他们都会把钱退给你。
So if you're unsatisfied for any reason, they'll refund your money.
绝对不问原因。
No questions asked.
别忘了去 zbiotics.com/galloway，结账时用代码 Galloway，享受八五折优惠。
Remember to head to zbiotics.com/galloway and use the code Galloway at checkout for 15% off.
本节目由 Odoo 赞助。
Support for the show comes from Odoo.
经营企业已经够难了，没必要再被一堆互不相通的软件拖累。
Running a business is hard enough, and you don't need to make it harder with a dozen different apps that don't speak to each other.
一个用来管销售，另一个管库存，还得再用一个专门做财务。
One for sales, another for inventory, a separate one for accounting.
不知不觉间，你被一堆软件和流程淹没了，反而没心思去关注真正重要的事——把生意做大。
Before you know it, you find yourself drowning in software and processes instead of focusing on what matters, growing your business.
这时候，Odoo就派上用场了。
That's where Odoo comes in.
这是你这辈子唯一需要的商业软件。
It's the only business software you'll ever need.
Odoo是一个全集成的一体化平台，什么都能搞定。
Odoo is an all in one fully integrated platform that handles everything.
包括客户关系管理、财务、库存、电商、人力资源，还有更多功能。
That means CRM, accounting, inventory, ecommerce, HR, and more.
再也不用被一堆应用压得喘不过气。
No more app overload.
也不用来回切换登录账号。
No more juggling logins.
只有一个流畅的系统，让工作变得更轻松。
Just one seamless system that makes work easier.
最棒的是，Odoo 用不到几分之一的价钱，就取代了多个昂贵的软件平台。
And the best part is Odoo replaces multiple expensive platforms for a fraction of the cost.
它能随着你的业务一起成长，不管你刚起步，还是已经在扩张。
It's built to grow with your business, whether you're just starting out or you're already scaling up.
而且它操作简单，支持自定义，专为优化每个流程而设计。
Plus, it's easy to use, customizable, and designed to streamline every process.
是时候把杂乱的东西放一边，专心做好真正重要的事——经营你的生意。
It's time to put the clutter aside and focus on what really matters, running your business.
成千上万的企业已经换了系统，你还在等什么？
Thousands of businesses have made the switch, so why not you?
去 odoo.com 免费试用 Odoo。
Try Odoo for free at odoo.com.
就是 odoo.com。
That's odoo.com.
本节目由领英广告赞助。
Support for the show comes from LinkedIn ads.
再没有什么比花大价钱买一样东西，结果却发现根本没达到宣传的那般效果更让人沮丧的了，比如买了一台高端科技产品，最后却束之高阁，积满灰尘；或者参加一个商业培训，最后收获的不过是几句励志口号。
There's no worse feeling than making a major investment in something only to realize it didn't exactly live up to the hype, such as buying a nice piece of tech that ends up in storage collecting dust or taking a business workshop where your main takeaway was little more than a few motivational words.
如果你做市场营销，广告也常会遇到这种情况。
If you work in marketing, this can happen with ads.
你拼命优化那些看起来漂亮的数字——曝光量、覆盖人数、互动数。
You optimize for the numbers that look great, impressions, reach, reactions.
可一旦这些广告没带来实际收入，跟CFO解释起来可就头疼了。
But when they don't show revenue, well, that can turn into an unfun conversation with the CFO.
领英管这叫‘无效投放’。
LinkedIn has a word for that, bull spend.
用领英广告精准触达目标客户，把钱花在能让CFO点头的地方。
Reach the right buyers with LinkedIn ads and invest in what looks good to your CFO.
根据《2026梦想数据基准报告》，领英广告在所有主流广告平台中，投资回报率最高。
According to the 2026 Dream Data Benchmark Report, LinkedIn ads generated the highest ROAS of all major ad networks.
这些平台。
Networks.
提升了121%。
It's a 121%.
你可以按公司、行业、职位头衔等多种条件精准定位。
You can target by company, industry, job title, and more.
是时候停止浪费预算了。
It's time to cut the bull spend.
在LinkedIn上做广告，选择真正为你服务的平台。
Advertise on LinkedIn, the network that works for you.
在LinkedIn广告上首期投放250美元，即可获得下一期250美元的广告抵扣。
Spend $250 in your first campaign on LinkedIn ads and get a $250 credit for the next one.
前往 LinkedIn linkedin.com/scott 即可。
Just go to LinkedIn linkedin.com/scott.
就是 linkedin.com/scott。
That's linkedin.com/scott.
条款细则适用。
Terms and conditions apply.
所以你把千禧一代参与加密货币高风险行为，不是看作不负责任，而是视为他们被排除在房产市场之外后的理性反应，这种现象被称为财务虚无主义。
So you frame the Gen Z crypto risk taking behavior not as irresponsibility, but as a rational response to being locked out of housing, a phenomenon called financial nihilism.
数据显示，工作投入减少、休闲支出增加，以及对高风险资产的投资，在那些几乎不可能买房的年轻人中尤为普遍。
The evidence suggests that reduced work effort, increased leisure spending, and investment in risky assets are all disproportionately common among young adults with little realistic prospect of buying a home.
你详细说说看。
Walk us through that.
对。
Yeah.
这个研究最初让我注意到这个现象时，就觉得特别有意思。
So this was a really interesting study initially where I saw this identified.
还有‘财务虚无主义’这个说法，我得归功于德米特里·科菲纳斯，他是几年前最早提出这个概念的人。
And the the term financial nihilism as well, I should credit to Dmitry Coffinas, who who originally coined out a couple years back.
但这里的数据显示得非常有意思。
But the data here is super interesting.
如果你仔细看消费数据，按年龄、住房状况、婚姻状态这些维度细分，就会发现，那些说千禧一代和Z世代乱花钱——比如投加密货币、炫富消费、天天点贵的外卖——这类负面标签，其实主要集中在那些明显没希望买房的人身上。
So if you look at detailed consumer spending data, which splits people by age, housing tenure, relationship status, all of that kind of stuff, what we see is that a lot of these sort of negative stereotypes of millennials and Gen z about wasting money on crypto, on conspicuous consumption, on takeout, like, expensive takeout every day, that kind of thing, that is happening much more among people who we can see are have no realistic prospects of buying a house.
而那些正接近买房能力、或者已经买上房的人，反而很少这么做。
For those who are on the brink of affording a house or they've managed to buy a house, they're doing that much less.
我们眼下这种状况，让人能理性地看待自己的财务和住房环境，再加上可能还没伴侣、不用养家糊口，于是就想：既然如此，不如赌一把，把钱投进去试试？
So we've created this situation where people really can rationally look at their finances and the housing situation around them, and maybe the fact that they don't have a partner either, that they're not worried about supporting, a household with kids mouths to feed, and they think, why don't I just throw roll the dice here, throw some money at it?
而且这里其实包含两个层面。
And and it is simultaneously there's there's two things there.
对吧？
Right?
一方面，他们觉得，在这个对自己极不友好的经济环境中，唯一翻身的机会就是下高风险的注。
One is that they're saying, well, my only my only chance of succeeding in an economy that feels as stacked against me as it is is to take high risk bets.
另一方面，他们也觉得，反正没有买房或养家这种长期大额支出，省着花钱也没意义。
And simultaneously, they're thinking there's no point in me being sensible with my finances because I don't have one of these big long term looming costs like a house or a family.
因此，大量关于挥霍和赌博的刻板印象，其实都源于同一个根本原因。
So there's decent evidence that a lot of these stereotypes of waste and gambling really are downstream of that same mechanism.
是的，我记得有一次去音乐节，看到好多年轻人在VIP区，门票要两千五百美元。
Yeah I thought that maybe I I was at a music festival and I saw so many young people in the VIP section where the tickets were $2,500.
我就问了一个人：你怎么付得起这个钱？
And I asked someone, I said, how can you afford to be here?
他们说：我们本来就没打算存钱买房。
And they said, well, we're not saving for a house.
他们已经放弃这个念头了。
They've given up.
我像他们这么大的时候，一毕业就开始攒钱，目标就是买房。
When I was that age, the first thing I did out of graduate school is I started packing all my money away for a house.
那是我当时的头等大事，可他们连想都不想了，直接去参加科切拉音乐节。
That was the next thing, and they've just given up on that, so they go to Coachella.
我还想，我刚进入收入高峰期的时候，正好赶上金融危机，资产价格暴跌。
And also I wonder if when I came into my prime income earning years, it was the great financial recession, and we let asset prices fall.
我们没有出手救市。
We didn't bail out.
我们救了银行，却没有救经济。
We bailed out the banks, but we didn't bail out the economy.
所以我当时以每股8.1美元和12美元的价格买进了苹果、亚马逊和奈飞。
And so I got to buy Apple, Amazon, and Netflix at, you know, $8.10, and $12 a share respectively.
现在资产价格一跌，我们就决定去救那些既得利益者，这等于剥夺了年轻人低价购入资产、实现突破的机会。
Now when asset prices fall, we decide we're going to bail out the incumbents, which is robbing opportunity from young people who want an opportunity for disruption to buy assets on the cheap as they're starting to make money.
所以他们觉得，这游戏根本就是被操纵的。
And so they feel as if, well, the game is rigged.
你们老用我的信用卡，去抬高你们自己早就拥有的资产，那我就自己创造一种新资产。
You guys just keep using my credit card to prop up your assets artificially that you already own, So I'm gonna invent my own asset class.
你觉得这话有道理吗，约翰？
Do think there's any truth to that, John?
是的。
Yeah.
这说法确实让我很有共鸣。
That certainly rings true to me.
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目前英国的情况特别糟糕，那些现在三十多岁的千禧一代，想买房时遇到了极大的困难，因为他们在经济低迷、房价高企的时候进入了市场。
And and in The UK at the moment, we have this particularly unpleasant twist where millennials, people in their thirties today had a incredibly tough time trying to buy a house because, again, they landed into that weak economy with high house prices.
但当他们好不容易买下一套价格适中的公寓，真正上车之后，这类房产的价值却大幅下跌了。
But then when they did manage to get on the housing ladder by, like, an apartment that was modestly priced, that class of housing is now lost value.
所以，这一代人其实被同一套机制从两个方向狠狠地伤害了。
So in I think there are so many ways in which that generation has suffered from almost both sides of the same mechanisms.
我们当初就让他们很难买到第一套房。
Like, we we made it hard for them to get on the housing ladder.
现在他们好不容易买了，又面临房产价值跌破贷款余额的风险。
Now that they're on the ladder, they're at risk of falling into negative equity.
是的。
Yeah.
我完全认同，2010年前后那段时间，发生了太多变化，彻底让这一代人处于不利的位置。
I I absolutely think that period around the twenty tens, so many things changed, so many things happened, which absolutely meaningfully meant that the the deck has been stacked against people of that generation.
这确实很惊人。
It's really striking.
我还想跟你分享一件事，昨晚我看了日本对荷兰的世界杯比赛，除了日本队和球迷赛后主动清理球场这一幕——我觉得这绝对是体育史上最强的品牌宣传，它让我忍不住想，我真的特别喜欢日本。
The other thing I'd love to give you a view on, I was watching Japan versus the Netherlands last night in the World Cup, and other than the fact that the Japanese team and fans stick around to clean the stadium, which I think is the greatest brand building activity in the history of sport, it just makes you think, wow, I really like Japan.
抛开这个不说，我简直惊呆了，感觉每两个广告里就有一个是博彩广告。
Putting that aside, I could not get over it felt like every ad, so maybe it was 50%, was an ad for gambling.
我当时就想，天啊，这东西无处不在。
I just I thought, oh my god, it's everywhere.
真的是到处都是。
It's literally everywhere.
你对赌博怎么看？它对年轻人造成了什么影响，或者正在造成什么影响？
Thoughts on gambling and what it's done or is doing to our youth?
我是太紧张了，还是说这威胁真的像我想的那么严重？
Do am I am I panicking about this, or is it the is it the threat that that I think it is?
没那么严重。
No.
我的意思是，这方面的数据其实挺明确的。
I mean, the data on this seems pretty solid.
对吧？
Right?
美国的一些研究显示，当不同州将在线赌博或在线体育博彩合法化后，低收入人群的支出出现了严重问题，很多人把所有积蓄甚至更多钱都花在了这些平台上。
So there've been a bunch of studies in The US showing that when different states legalized online gambling or online sports betting, it led to really significant negative impacts in terms of people, very low incomes, spending money either every penny they had or even more on these platforms.
在英国，针对国内足球联赛中赌博广告的监管正在加强，这确实是个正在热议的话题，但毫无疑问，这种现象正在四处蔓延，毁掉无数人。
In The UK, the there's increasingly been regulation of what gambling adverts can be shown during our domestic soccer leagues, So there's definitely a live discussion here, but, yeah, I mean, this is something that destroys destroys lies left, right, and center.
自2018、2019年以来，我们在美国看到的情况，现在正逐渐在广大发展中国家重现。
And what we've seen in The US since twenty eighteen, nineteen, we're now seeing in large parts of the developing world.
如今，一些非洲国家的赌博收入已经占到了GDP的相当大比例。
So there are now African countries where gambling revenues are a significant proportion of GDP.
所以，我完全认同，这已经成为许多社会的一大祸害。
So, yeah, I I absolutely think this has been a real a real scourge of many, many societies.
正如你所说，如今年轻人看体育比赛时，总是不断被引诱去参与这些活动，这确实非常成问题。
And as you say, the fact that so much of just consuming sport as a young person now is just you're constantly being baited into this stuff, I think it's, yeah, it's hugely problematic.
我们来聊聊性别差异吧。
Let's talk a little bit about the gender divide.
你记录了美国和德国年轻男女之间在短短六年内出现的30个百分点的意识形态差距。
You document a 30 ideological gap between young men and women in both The US and Germany, opening in just six years.
历史上，一代人通常在政治上步调一致，因为他们有共同的成长经历，但这种一致性似乎已经被打破了。
Historically generations move together politically because they share formative experiences, but that movement or congruence seems to have been broken.
你觉得是什么导致了这种断裂？
What do you think broke it?
这一点我也觉得，如果不考虑社交媒体的影响，真的很难解释清楚。
This is another one where I just think it's very difficult to explain this without social media having some role.
从时间点上看，无论是在美国、德国、韩国还是英国，情况都是一样的。
So both in terms of the timings, we see this whether we're looking at The US, Germany, South Korea, The UK.
这种现象几乎在所有地方都是从2010年代开始出现的。
It happens pretty much everywhere starting in the twenty tens.
也就是说，年轻女性平均比年轻男性更倾向于左翼或右翼。
That is to say young women ending up significantly further to the left and right on average compared to young men.
对我来说，最简单的解释就是，年轻男女越来越多地生活在互联网的不同世界里。
And for me, the easiest way to explain this is that to an increasing extent, young men and young women exist in different parts of the Internet, different online worlds.
已经有一些很有趣的分析证实了这一点。
There's been really interesting analysis done to prove this out.
比如，看看美国年轻人在TikTok上被推荐的视频，就能明显看到两类截然不同的内容群体。
So when you look at what videos are shown to young men and women on TikTok in The US, for example, you do get these quite distinct clusters.
有些视频几乎全是年轻女性在看，另一些则几乎全是年轻男性在看。
There are certain clips that will be seen almost entirely by young women and certain clips seen almost entirely by young men.
这些视频里经常包含政治相关内容——不一定非得是那种大写的‘政治’，但会潜移默化地引导你往某个方向走。
And among those clips, you often see either political content, and that doesn't need to be explicitly capital p political, but the kind of content that nudges you in a certain direction.
偶尔还能看到对另一性别的负面刻板印象。
You also occasionally get negative stereotypes about the other sex.
我觉得，人们的政治立场，和以往一样，很大程度上是由他们接触的信息塑造的。
So I think we we we're moving towards this place where people's political ideology, as has always been the case, is shaped in part by the information they consume.
现在有大量年轻男性和女性在接触完全不同的内容，这必然会导致我们今天看到的这种分化。
You have a large number of young men and women consuming very different types of information, different types of content, and that inevitably I think leads to what we see.
感觉两性都特别擅长把责任推给对方，网上充斥着大量恶劣的厌女言论。
It feels as if the genders have done a great job convincing themselves it's the other gender's fault, and there's a lot of misogyny online, really ugly misogyny.
这是坏消息。
That's the bad news.
好消息是，很多人其实早就看穿了，比如那场UFC比赛，有个蠢货上台说第一夫人是男人，结果社交媒体立马群起而攻之，把他怼得体无完肤。
The good news is that I think a lot of people correctly call it out and say, you know, I think of this UFC fight where that fucking idiot gets up there and says the first lady is a man, and and social media just weighs in and bats him correctly down.
但我也注意到，对男性的歧视同样不少。你看那些有两个女主持的播客，几乎都暗含一个主题：男人是无可救药的，或者根本靠不住，甚至女人天生就被诅咒，忍不住被他们吸引。
What I also see is a decent amount of misandry, and that is if you look at I would argue that the majority of podcasts where there's two female cohosts, there's this underlying theme that men are irredeemable or incompetent, and that maybe they, the women, are cursed biologically to be attracted to them.
但说白了，这诅咒其实就是离不开男人。
But be clear, it's a curse needing men.
问题是，这种说法从来没人站出来批评。
And the difference is it doesn't get called out.
如果你说男人有多堕落、多危险，我见过不少TikTok视频，教女生别去约会，因为太危险了。
If you talk about just how depraved and predatory men are, and I've seen this trend on TikTok where women are coaching other women not to go on dates because it's just too dangerous.
说年轻男性约会就是为了杀人，这种说法根本站不住脚。
So the idea that men are these young men are these violent people looking to kill the women they go on dates with, the data just doesn't support that.
你说话得特别小心，只要稍微暗示这些恐惧被夸大了，立马就有群起而攻之，说你是在包庇男人什么的。
You have to choose your words so carefully, because if you in any way say these fears are exaggerated, you yourself, the mob comes for you, that you're protecting these men or what have you.
但我希望你能验证或反驳这个观点：真正阻碍两性关系的，不是厌女或厌男，而是我认为，大多数情况下，厌女更容易被察觉，而厌男却常被忽视。
But I wanna ask you to validate it or nullify that thesis, but any thoughts on this notion that what isn't helping the connection is misogyny and misandry, but I would argue in most cases, the misogyny is more readily identified than the misandry.
对。
Yeah.
我完全同意，你看在讨论两性分歧时，普遍情况是：过去几十年，年轻男性并没有变得更保守。
I I think that's clearly true, and you see this around the on the conversation around the gender divide in general, which is that in most countries, what we've seen actually is young men have not become any more conservative over the last couple of decades.
真正变化的是年轻女性大幅向左倾斜，但关于性别分歧的讨论，却总默认是年轻男性转向了右翼。
What's changed is young women have moved very, very significantly to the left, and yet the conversation about the gender divide, typically, there's a premise that what's happened is young men moving to the right.
他们被说成是原始人。
That they become Neanderthals.
没错。
Exactly.
没错。
Exactly.
再说回到我们之前聊的生育率和亲密关系，让我觉得特别有意思的是，数据显示，男性，尤其是父亲们，如今承担的家务和育儿责任比以往任何时候都多。
And and, again, the thing I find striking in the context of the earlier in the context of our discussion about birth rates and relationships is that the data show that men well, fathers are doing a larger share of domestic work and childcare than ever before.
不过再说一遍，我们还没达到百分之五十，也许永远也达不到，但根据现有的所有数据，普通男性作为伴侣或潜在伴侣的表现，比以往任何时候都要好。
Now, again, that's we're not at 50% yet, and that may never happen, but the the average man is actually, by any measure we have, a better partner or potential partner than we've than we've ever seen in the data.
但正如你所说，确实还存在一些极端案例，而社交媒体放大了这些声音，这就让人总能找到实实在在的例子，证明有些男人真的很糟糕。
But as you say, there are still genuine extreme cases which social media amplifies, which means that there is always evidence that someone can point to legitimately as an example of men being terrible.
所以我完全理解你的沮丧，不仅是因为整体叙事有问题，更因为谈论这个话题时，稍有不慎就会被攻击，好像你是在夸大其词。
So I I completely share your frustration that both with the the narratives in overall and the fact that it's so tricky to talk about this in a way that doesn't lead one to get attacked for suggesting that there is sort of exaggeration going on.
不幸的是，世界上一些最著名、最富有的男性，根本没给男性群体树立好榜样。
Unfortunately, some of the most famous and wealthiest men in the world have not been exactly brand ambassadors for men as a whole.
但我认为，年轻男性总是被贴上非常负面的标签，现在似乎成了一种潮流，把男人描绘成一无是处好像理所当然。
But I do think young men get get painted with a really ugly brush, and it gets and it's sort of in vogue or fair game to portray men as just awful.
可当你这么做的时候，尤其是在网上，这种言论往往会遭到反驳。
And whereas when you do that, and there's a lot of that online, it gets called out.
关于这个性别分歧，顺便说一句，我总喜欢从讨论中提炼出一个最重要的观点。
In terms of this gender divide and by the way, I just think I always like to take one big insight away.
就是你刚才说的那番话。
It's really what you just said.
我有这种感觉，但没像你这样清晰地表达出来：不是男人变保守了，而是女人变得更进步了。
I felt it, but I didn't know it the way you articulated it, and that is men haven't moved to the right, women have moved more progressive.
事实上，大多数年轻男性依然支持身体自主权。
And that is there's still the majority of young men still believe in bodily autonomy.
他们支持女性权益。
They believe in women's rights.
是女人走得更远了，这没什么可指责的。
Women have moved much more progressive, which is neither and you can't fault them for it.
每个人都有自己的选择权，有权做决定。
People have their own agency and get to decide.
差距拉大的原因，是女人往左走得更远，而不是男人往右偏。
But the movement in the divide has been a function of women going further left, not men going further right.
你觉得英国和美国之间，这种差异有区别吗？
Do you see any differences in this delta between The UK and The US?
我觉得情况差不多。
I think it looks relatively similar.
这部分原因在于政治体制，不同派别为人们提供了左右两端的选择。
So some of this is a function of, like, political systems in which sort of parties are available for people to support on the left and right.
在英国，现在政治格局比较分散，女性更倾向于支持激进进步的绿党，而年轻男性则更可能投票给激进右翼的改革党。
So in The UK, we now have this fragmented system where you see, yeah, women more likely to vote for the sort of radically progressive green party and young men more likely to vote for the radical right reform party.
但总体来看，跨大西洋两岸的趋势其实很相似，这说明我们正在经历一场更广泛的社会转变。
But we do, by and large, see pretty similar pattern on both sides of the Atlantic, and that for me suggests that this is a broader sort of shift that's happening.
我还想强调，英语国家的社交媒体生态已经形成了一个相对独立的圈子，这一点在过去社交媒体兴起之前是不存在的。
I'd also emphasize that the sort of English speaking world has its own corner of the of social media in a way that was much less true before we had social media.
十五年前，美国的年轻人和英国的年轻人接触的媒体内容几乎是完全不同的。
So fifteen years ago, young men and women in The US would have been consuming very different media to young men and women in The UK.
但现在，两者之间的重叠非常大，比如‘黑人的命也是命’运动，就迅速从美国蔓延到英国、爱尔兰、澳大利亚、新西兰和加拿大，但在其他国家影响较小。
Today, there's a huge amount of overlap, and, you know, we saw that with how the Black Lives Matter movement rapidly spread, from The US to The UK, Ireland, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, and less so to other countries.
不过，我们在讨论的这些其他趋势中，确实也能看到类似的现象。
But, yeah, I I think we absolutely see it in some of the other shifts we're talking about here.
某种潮流一旦在美国或英国兴起，就会跨越大洋，迅速在不同国家、不同群体中引发相似的反应。
Something is take sort of takes hold in The US or maybe The UK and goes across the across the ocean, and we suddenly see similar patterns working their way through very different groups of people in different places.
马上回来。
We'll be right back.
一、二、三。
One, two, three.
我是脱口秀演员，吉安·马尔科·塞拉奇。
I'm stand up comedian, Gian Marco Serraci,
我是演员兼模特，拉塞尔·丹尼尔斯。
and I'm actor penis model, Russell Daniels.
《生活的阴暗面》是我们做的播客，每期请嘉宾聊聊他们有多惨。
The Downside is our podcast where we bring on guests to talk about how miserable their lives are.
说白了，日子没见好转。
Because let's face it, things are not getting better.
每期我们都聊生活、嘉宾的生活、这个世界哪儿出了问题，但方式挺轻松的。
Every episode, we talk about what's wrong with our lives, our guests' lives, the world, but in a fun way.
总之，听完你会觉得自己的生活其实还不错。
Bottom line is you're gonna walk away feeling better about your life.
我们请过好多有趣的嘉宾，比如凯莱布·赫伦。
We've had so many cool guests, Caleb Huron.
布西·菲利普斯。
Busy Phillips.
斯塔夫罗斯·哈尔基亚斯。
Stavros Halkias.
拉弗恩·考克斯。
Laverne Cox.
哈桑·派克。
Hassan Piker.
阿拉娜·格拉瑟。
Alana Glaser.
我保证你一定会觉得特别有趣。
I promise you're gonna have a good time.
现在在沃克斯媒体播客网络播出。
Now on the Vox Media Podcast Network.
欢迎收听《Downside》。
This is the Downside.
本节目由菲拉格慕赞助播出。
Support for the show comes from Ferragamo.
父亲节之际，菲拉格慕想致敬那些父亲与所爱之人之间历久弥新的瞬间——那份从容、自信与优雅，往往无需言说，自然流露。
For Father's Day, Ferragamo wants to celebrate the moments that last a lifetime between a father and the ones he loves, where style, confidence, and grace are naturally communicated.
菲拉格慕推出‘我从你身上学到的事’系列，展现最深沉的爱与品位，因为父亲教给我们的许多东西，从不靠说教，而是藏在日复一日的细微举动里，悄然沉淀成一生的印记。
Ferragamo presents there are things I have learned from you collection, where the deepest forms of love and sophistication are showcased because very few lessons from fathers are not normally taught, but rather absorbed through the small everyday gestures that define a lifetime.
不妨看看菲拉格慕男装系列，比如他们的香氛线，每一缕气息都精准捕捉了男性优雅与奢华的精髓。
Discover things from Ferragamo men's selection, like their fragrance collection, an olfactory journey that captures the essence of masculine elegance and luxury in every detail.
每一款产品都选用顶级原料，精工细作，只为满足最挑剔的品味。
Each creation is crafted with premium ingredients and meticulous attention to detail designed to satisfy even the most refined tastes.
或者看看他们那双优雅的意大利弗朗西斯卡鞋，杏仁形鞋头配以缝线鞋盖，细窄鞋沿搭配真皮鞋底，尽显经典质感。
Or check out their beautiful Italian Francesina shoes with almond tips that feature a stitched toe cap, which is crowned by a slim welt and finished with a leather sole.
无论你选择哪一件，菲拉格慕的产品都仿佛天生属于你的故事——它们经得起时间考验，代代相传，因为这个品牌所诠释的，是一种永恒、真实而纯粹的男性气质。
No matter what you select, Ferragamo products naturally fit into your story as items designed to last and accompany different generations because the brand expresses a timeless, authentic, and essential idea of masculinity.
了解更多法拉利父亲节精选礼品，上官网 faragamo.com 或前往门店。
Discover Ferragamo's Father's Day gifting selection faragamo.com or in store.
我们继续带来约翰·伯恩-默多克的更多内容。
We're back with more from John Burn-Murdoch.
我想聊聊人工智能和工作。
I want to talk about AI and work.
在你的研究中提到，关于人工智能导致失业的说法可能搞错了原因。
In your work you suggest that the AI job loss narrative may have been misattributed.
初级岗位招聘减少其实始于2020年远程办公兴起之时，远在ChatGPT出现之前。
The junior hiring pullback started when remote work took off in 2020, well before ChatGPT.
有趣的是，Z世代反而是最不支持完全远程办公的一代。
In Gen Z, counterintuitively, are the generation most opposed to fully remote work.
那么正确的政策方向应该是什么？
What is the right policy implication?
是要求更多面对面办公，还是别的办法？
More in person mandates or something else?
这一点，我觉得特别有意思，但大家普遍理解得不够。
This one, again, I think is super interesting and relatively poorly understood.
人们花了大量时间和精力去研究AI是否影响了年轻人的就业状况，但对过去六年远程办公兴起这一巨大变化，却关注得少得多。
So a huge amount of time and effort has been put into looking at whether AI is impacting the labor market state situation for young people, but much less work has been devoted to this massive shift over the last six years in terms of the rise of remote work.
你想想看，这彻底改变了员工和雇主之间的关系。
When you think about it, that it transforms the relationship between worker and employer.
它也改变了招聘流程。
It transforms the hiring process.
它还改变了日常工作的本质，可这方面几乎没什么深入的研究和分析。
It transforms how well, the nature of day to day work itself, and very little analysis and study has been done on this.
现在我们开始看到一些研究出来了，它们似乎都表明，远程办公，尤其是完全远程的工作，确实是年轻人招聘数量大幅下降的重要原因之一。
And now we're starting to see a couple studies done, and they do seem to suggest that it is more likely that remote working, especially fully remote jobs, have been a big part of the decline in hiring, the disproportionate decline in hiring of young people.
不过，这里得出的普遍结论并不是说每个人都该回去每周上五天班。
Now, again, the the fairly consistent conclusion here is not that that means everyone should go back to doing five days a week.
但有充分的证据显示，混合办公模式对各方——无论是老板还是新人——都挺有效的。
But there's really solid evidence that hybrid working has been pretty good for everyone involved, for the bosses, for the juniors, for everyone.
但人们在办公室待的时间越少，工作就越变成一系列数字任务，而这些任务如果能由几百英里外的人完成，那也许就能由自主型人工智能来接手。
But the less time people are spending in the office, the more that work becomes this digital task or set of digital tasks, which, you know, if they can be done by someone hundreds of miles away, then maybe they could be done by agentic AI.
于是，把员工调到远方、用屏幕取代面对面交流，这两件事就重叠在了一起。
So you get this overlap between moving someone far away, moving moving away from face to face to interacting through a screen.
这正好赶上人工智能兴起的时期，人们自然而然地开始想：我们真有必要留那么多人，天天在Slack上给我发文档吗？
That happens at the same time as I I as AI comes up, and suddenly it becomes almost almost second nature to think, well, you know, do we really need that many people who are doing who are just gonna be pinging me documents over Slack?
所以我觉得这里面确实有道理，但解决办法可能不是要求大家每周五天全在办公室，而是回到每周三到四天在岗的模式，这样才不会越过临界点，引发其他问题。
So so I think there's there's certainly something there, but the the way to solve this is probably to go back to more firms where you have three or four days in the office rather than saying five, which is where you then go over the peak and start getting into other problems.
目前关于生产力或人工智能对生产力影响的研究特别混乱。
The productivity research or AI productivity research is especially noisy right now.
各种报道和研究结论大相径庭，方法论也五花八门，而且背后还有巨大的经济利益驱动。
You have wildly conflicting headlines, studies with different methodologies, people with enormous financial incentives.
作为一个以数据驱动的叙事者，你该怎么从这些噪音中理清头绪？
How do you as a data driven storyteller cut through that?
你到底怎么分辨哪些是真正有价值的信号，哪些只是干扰？
Like how do you discern signal from noise?
这事儿挺复杂的。
I mean, it's tricky.
每次问这个问题，我们都要努力找到信噪比最高的数据。
It's it's about trying to find the best data with the highest sort of signal through noise ratio for every time we ask this question.
几个月前，我们手头最好的数据是使用和不使用智能代理工具的软件工程师的活跃程度。
So a few months ago, the best data we had was the amount of activity that software engineers were performing, those using Agentic IO versus those that weren't.
这让我们觉得，确实能提升生产力。
And that gave us a sense that, well, this does seem to be boosting productivity.
人们交付的代码变多了。
People are shipping more code.
但几个月后，我们现在能从头到尾看整个流程了：从写了多少行代码，到发布了多少软件，再到这些AI辅助开发的软件到底被用了多少。
But a few months later, we're now able to look at that full pipeline as it were from lines of code written, pieces of software released to how much those new pieces of AI assisted software are actually getting used.
结果发现，当你追踪到真正创造价值的终点时，提升其实微乎其微。
And it turns out that when you follow that pipeline to its end where where you really are capturing value, there's been very little uplift at all.
这一直是个挑战，我在自己的工作中也深有体会。
So it's it's constantly challenging, and I see this in my own work as well.
我本人就是AgenTiC这些AI工具的重度使用者，确实感觉效率提高了不少。
Like, I'm a fairly heavy user of the AgenTiC AI tools, and I definitely feel more productive.
我和Claude或者Codex合作的时候，产出的东西多得不得了。
I'm between me and and Claude or Codex, we're producing loads of stuff.
但到了周末回头一看，我还是只写了两篇文章。
But at the end of the week, I look back and I think, well, I still did two articles.
我觉得很多工作都是这样，低层次的活跃度，并不总能转化成真正有价值的结果——比如对我而言，是读者真正会看的内容；对别人来说，是客户真正会用的产品。
And there are so many jobs, I think, where that is true, where activity sort of low level activity does not always translate or frequently doesn't translate into high value that your, in my case, readers or in someone else's case, customers, clients will consume.
所以，AI到底带来了多少真正的额外价值，这个问题恐怕还会继续让人捉摸不透，再过几年，我们肯定能比现在看得更清楚。
So, yeah, I I think the question of how much real additional value is being generated by AI is gonna continue to be this quite elusive beast, and we will have much better answers even in a couple years than we do today.
有一件事特别有意思，你的研究也指出了：社交媒体制造的是两极分化，而AI聊天机器人反而加剧了深层的极化与温和化——每个主流模型都会悄悄引导用户倾向更中立、更贴近专家的观点，即使考虑了奉承因素也是如此。
Something that's super interesting, and your research has highlighted, is that while social media creates polarization, AI chatbots actually create deep polarization, moderation, and that every major model nudges users towards more moderate expert aligned views, even accounting for sycophancy.
你能再详细说说这个现象吗？
Can you say more about this?
是的。
Yeah.
所以我觉得，这是一个非常重要的问题：每当一种新的媒体形式出现并迅速普及时。
So I find this stuff I think this is a really important question to ask is any new sort of new media form comes in and and spreads across society.
某种类型的媒体往往会把人们拉向中间，这一点在历史上一直如此。
So certain types of media tend to bring people towards the middle, and this has been true across histories.
而另一些媒体则会放大边缘声音。
Other ones sort of elevate fringe voices.
比如，想想印刷术刚出现时的书籍和报纸，由于创办报社或出版社需要大量资金，主流声音自然就占了上风。
So if you think about things like books or newspapers back when the printing press first came around, you were essentially because of the capital costs of starting up a newspaper publication or a book publisher, you are, by default, favoring, like, establishment mainstream voices.
这并不是说这种现象好或不好，但它确实带来了这样的影响。
And that that's not to make a value judgment about whether that's good or bad, but that's kind of the impact that that had.
同样，电视刚出现的时候，频道数量很少，也是因为成本和监管因素，所以最初还是偏向主流声音。
Similarly, when television first came out, you had a small number of channels, again, because of the costs involved and because of regulation, so they tended to elevate mainstream voices, at least at first.
但社交媒体完全不同，它本质上是加剧分裂的。
What we what we then had with social media is something that is fundamentally polarizing.
因为它打破了原有的主流屏障——任何人都能随时随地发帖。
It breaks through that establishment layer because anyone anywhere can post to social media.
因此，那些边缘观点被放大了。
It therefore elevates those fringe views.
它对负面内容的放大程度，远超以往任何其他媒体形式。
It amplifies negativity far more so than many other media forms in did in the past.
AI 是一个特别有意思的情况，我们似乎正在回归一种偏向主流、具有调和作用的媒体形态，这背后有几个不同的原因。
AI is this really interesting case where we seem to be going back to a moderating establishment favoring media, where this seems to be happening for a few different reasons.
首先，这些模型所依赖的训练数据，很大一部分来自主流且可信的渠道。
So one is that the information that these models are trained on, a huge amount of that has come from mainstream trusted sources.
另外，AI 工具的商业模式和社交媒体也大不相同。
Additionally, you have the fact that the business model for AI tools is quite different to social media.
社交媒体，就像过去十五年里大多数数字媒体创新一样，最终主要靠广告收入支撑。
So social media, like most of the digital media innovations of the last fifteen years, ended up being predominantly ad funded.
它的核心就是吸引注意力。
So it was all about attention.
一切为了眼球，所以你自然会被激励去说那些夸张、震撼的内容。
It was all about eyeballs, and therefore, you're you're incentivized to say sensationalist things, shocking things.
AI目前最成功的商业模式，是让它在商业领域变得特别有用。
AI, the winning business model seems to be making it very useful for people in the business world.
这意味着这项技术的内部机制更看重准确性。
That means the the inner workings of this technology reward being correct.
如果一个AI工具只是说你爱听的话，却告诉你错误的信息，那根本没什么价值。
There's not much point having an AI tool which tells you what you want to hear if that's gonna mean it tells you the wrong thing.
你要是把错误的内容写进报告里，
You put the wrong thing in your report.
你给投资者的信息要是错了，
You you give your investors the wrong information.
所以，这些技术差异带来的种种细节意味着，当你向这些AI工具提问，或者在对话中不经意提到政治和意识形态问题时——我不是说你直接问它们，而是这些问题偶尔在对话中出现时——它们通常会给出中立、主流、平衡的回答。
So all of these subtleties about how the technology differs mean that when you ask or when you talk to these AI tools and different models about issues of politics and ideology and I don't necessarily mean explicitly asking them these questions, but as these issues come up from time to time in different conversations, they tend to give you fairly mainstream, straight down the middle moderate answers.
因此，如果这些对话真的影响了人们对世界的看法，那么根据现有证据来看，它们有望把人们从极端边缘的观点拉回来，回归更贴近事实的世界观。
And, therefore, to the extent that these conversations do end up shaping how people think about the world, they will hopefully, and the evidence suggests, they will bring people back away from those fringe extreme views and towards a more factual view of the world.
你的图表几乎和你的署名一样广为人知了。
Your charts have almost become as recognizable as your byline.
人们会把图表单独转分享，根本不看原文。
People share them without the article.
成功的秘诀在于讲好故事，或者说，这背后是一种核心自信，而你的图表确实特别会讲故事。
The key to success is great storytelling, or I would argue that's a core confidence, and you seem to tell great stories through your charts.
你选图表的时候，是怎么决定哪个放前面的？
What's your selection process for which chart you're gonna sort of lead with?
说实话，我每做一张图，都会想：这东西为啥能让人感兴趣？到底有多少人会觉得它有意思。
Honestly, I'm always trying to think why would this be interesting to someone, and how and how many people would find this interesting.
我在做分析的时候，通常会顺手生成二十来张图，就跟着整个过程一路走下来。
So I will as I'm doing my analysis, I'll be generating, like, I don't know, 20 charts per piece of work that I'm working on just as I go through that process.
然后每一张图我都会问自己：这图真有意思吗？
And then with each of those charts, I'm thinking, well, is this interesting?
这图只是我觉得有意思，还是别人也会觉得有意思？
Is this is this only interesting to me, or could this be interesting to more people?
这图是在重复大家已经知道的事，还是在传递新信息？
And is this telling people something they already know or telling them something new?
如果它只是把人们原本模糊的想法变得更清晰了，那也不是坏事。
And and if it is telling someone something they already knew, that's not necessarily a bad thing if it's really crystallizing this vague idea they had.
但确实，这里面有很多权衡和选择，归根结底，我还是想让这些东西能引起更多人的共鸣。
But, yeah, all all sorts of trade offs and decisions around that, but fundamentally based on this idea of thinking, how can I make this speak to as many people as possible?
你多年来一直在关注这些代际趋势，说实话，整体基调显得相当黯淡。
You've been covering these generational trends for years, and the through line, quite frankly, feels pretty bleak.
我要说的不是你，而是我自己——作为所谓的思想领袖或学者，陷入悲观、夸大危机的诱惑实在太强了，因为说这些事确实更容易吸引人。
And I would argue, and I won't say this about you, I'll say it about me, the temptation to catastrophize and be bleak is really seductive for quote unquote thought leaders or academics, because quite frankly it just makes for more interesting talk.
如果完全忠于历史，我们的讨论可能就只是：你知道吗？
Sort of if you were just to be have fidelity to history, our talks would be, you know what?
今天一切又稍微好了一点。
Today everything just got a wee bit better.
但这种话听起来实在没意思。
And that's just not that interesting.
相比之下，谈论问题当然更吸引人——我不是说这些问题不真实，但我自己就是个容易沮丧、容易愤怒的人，所以悲观很容易；而且这背后还有经济上的驱动力。
It's much more interesting to talk about, and I'm not suggesting these issues aren't real, but I find myself, one, I'm naturally depressed and angry person, so it's easy for me to catastrophize, but there's economic incentive in it.
而且，谈论问题确实听起来更有意思。
And that is, you just sound more interesting to talk about the problems.
你一直都在讨论一些大趋势，比如年轻人的孤独、认知能力下降、经济脱节、出生率下滑这些事。
You've been talking about the general trend lines in, you know, mostly about youth isolation, cognitive decline, economic dislocation, falling birth rates.
你觉得情况在变得更糟吗？还是说你看到了一些迹象——我不会用‘希望’这个词，因为一说这个词，大家马上就会跳出来：‘我是乐观派’——但你真觉得年轻人的幸福感现在处于什么阶段？
Do you think it's getting worse, or do you think that there are signs I won't say hope, because everyone will bust into their thinking, well I'm an optimist, but do you think things really where do you think we are in the curve of youth well-being?
说实话，我觉得我们可能已经过了最低点。
I honestly think we're probably past the bottom.
我觉得部分原因在于，人工智能或许能以更健康的方式，至少是没那么有害的方式，重塑社交对话这类东西。
I think that partly for the reasons we said about how AI could potentially shape the sort of social discourse and that kind of things in a healthier way or at least a less unhealthy way than social media.
我也写过，已经有初步迹象表明，人们的屏幕使用时间和社交媒体使用时间正在减少，如果大家能把这些时间用在面对面交流上，那会非常有益。
I've also written about how there's early suggestive evidence that people's screen time and social media time may be falling, which I think would be very beneficial if people then start using that time to interact face to face.
至于住房问题，当然情况还可能更糟，但我感觉现在大家终于开始认真讨论这个问题了，意识到这确实是个必须解决的难题，世界各地的政府和政策制定者也正越来越重视起来。
I think on housing, you know, it's always possible for things to get even worse, but I do think we're now having a conversation where there's an appreciation that this this is something we really need to address and fix, and and there are governments and policymakers in all sorts of different parts of the world starting starting to increasingly take this seriously.
是的。
Yeah.
我对这一点持乐观态度。
I I'm optimistic about that.
我担心的另一面是，如果人工智能真的对年轻人的就业造成长期负面影响，那将是一个重大的负面转变，很难被这些更微妙的社会文化变化所抵消。
I guess the pessimistic side that I'm competing against there is if AI does turn out to have this sustained negative impact on young people's employment, that would be a a material negative shift that it would be very hard for all of these more subtle sociocultural shifts to to wave away.
不过，说实话，我完全同意你的看法。
But, yeah, look, I I try I I completely agree with you.
现在的趋势是人们更爱讲一些出人意料的负面故事，但我一直提醒自己要保持清醒，主动寻找那些真实存在的积极和乐观的迹象。
It's the incentives here are to tell sort of surprising negative stories, but I do try to remain fully aware of that and look for the positive and more optimistic stories where they exist.
我肯定你经常被问到这个问题，我也经常被人问起。
I'm sure you get this question a lot, and it's one I get.
我想谈的是关于英国的情况。
And it's the following regarding The UK.
这里到底出了什么问题？
What's wrong here?
很多支撑强劲经济增长的支柱——优质的教育、丰富的文化、全球影响力——这些并不是欧洲独有的。
So many of the pillars of a stronger growth economy, great education, great culture, global influence, it's not a uniquely European thing.
瑞典正在增长。
Sweden is growing.
荷兰的生产率已经提升了。
Productivity in The Netherlands is up.
英国却严重落后了。
The UK is a real laggard.
如果你要找英国问题的根源，到底哪里出了问题？
If you were to attempt to identify what ails The UK, you know, what is wrong here?
你怎么回答这个问题？
How do you answer that?
你看啊。
Look.
这类问题答案肯定很多，但我马上能想到两个关键原因，第一个就是这里的规划和审批制度，简直让美国那种也在讨论这个问题的国家都显得像新手一样。
Again, there's there's gonna be so many answers to a question like this, but certainly two big ones that I would point to immediately are, one is the sort of planning and permitting system here, which has which really makes countries like The US, where that's also a conversation, look like rookies.
英国对住房建设的限制真是到了离谱的地步。
You know, the restrictions on house building in The UK are extraordinary.
伦敦、曼彻斯特、伯明翰这些主要城市周边都有大片土地，根本不允许建房，叫做绿带。
There are huge areas of land around London, around Manchester, around Birmingham, our major cities, where you are simply not allowed to build, called the Green Belt.
我们在基础设施建设上也施加了类似甚至更严格的限制。
We we apply similar restrictions, or similarly severe restrictions to building infrastructure.
我们的基础设施成本是全球最高的之一，项目延误也是全球最严重的，影响交通，也影响能源。
We have some of the highest infrastructure costs in the world and the longest delays in the world affecting transport, affecting energy.
这些因素导致我们的能源价格在发达国家中位居前列。
That gives us some of the highest energy prices in the developed world.
所有这些问题都让个人、企业，不管是谁，都更难在英国，或者英国最富生产力的地区落地。
All of these make it harder for people, companies, you name it, to locate in The UK or in the most productive parts of The UK.
第二个因素，我觉得是国家事务的过度集中化。
The second factor, I would say, is that over centralization of how things are done in the country.
美国做得不错的一点是，州和地方政府可以自行征税。
So one of the things I think The US does pretty well is state and local governments can raise their own taxes.
这给了他们很强的动力去建设、创新，努力把本地管理得比邻州更好。
That gives them strong incentives to build, to innovate, to try and run things better than the neighboring state.
在英国，我们基本上没有这种机制。
In The UK, we, by and large, don't have that.
即使是地方事务，也基本由中央政府掌控。
Overwhelmingly, things even at the local level are effectively run by the central government.
这使得各个城市很难彼此采取不同的做法。
That discourages one city to try to do things differently from another.
大部分税收筹集方式也都大同小异。
Most of the tax raising mechanisms, again, happen in a similar way.
因此，英国的地方政府不像美国那样，有动力去建房以增加收入。
So local governments in The UK are similarly not incentivized to build housing to raise revenue in the way they are in The US.
我觉得，审批流程和中央集权，可能是两个最关键的问题。
So I think permitting and centralization are probably the biggest two I would point to.
我对SpaceX到底是好是坏，一直拿不定主意，想听听你的看法。
I struggle with, and I wanna get your thoughts on this, I struggle on whether SpaceX is a good or a bad thing.
答案可能是：两者都是。
And the answer is probably yes.
财富创造、创新、经济增长，还有那种激励人心的力量，真的让人深受鼓舞。
The wealth creation, the innovation, the economic growth, the inspiration is just inspiring.
但与此同时，我觉得很多东西其实是人为制造的稀缺，英雄主义的刻板印象，最终导致大量财富从普通投资者流向极少数人，加剧了收入不平等，也让经济越来越像在为某种背景故事服务。
At the same time, I feel a lot of it is manufactured scarcity, the archetype of heroism, resulting in what feels like could be a pretty big transfer of wealth from retail investors to an even smaller group of people, thereby increasing income inequality and an economy that seems to be more about finding a way to do ultimately a backdrop.
我想听听你的看法，关于SpaceX和首位万亿富翁这件事——它的正面和负面究竟在哪里。
I'm curious to just get your views on the, if you will, SpaceX and the first trillionaire, the goods, the, you know, the positives and the negatives of that.
作为一个英国人，我觉得挺有意思的是，很多美国人确实都参与了股市投资。
I will just say as a as a Brit here, it's interesting that at least for a large number of Americans, they are invested in the stock market.
SpaceX取得了巨大的成功。
So SpaceX is a huge success.
他们确实把部分收益分享给了广大投资者，但在英国，这种情况要少得多。
They're gonna share to that sharing that to an extent, whereas in The UK, that is much less true.
所以如果马斯克和SpaceX赚了大钱，英国和欧洲的普通人通过股市分到的好处，会比在美国少得多。
And so if Musk and, if Elon Musk and SpaceX make a huge amount of money, that is gonna be much less shared via the stock market for people in The UK and Europe.
但说实话，这事儿真的很难评判。
But, yeah, it's it's a really tricky one.
一个万亿富翁的存在，其象征意义显然非常巨大，我能理解为什么人们会对这个数字、对跨越这条界限的事件产生如此强烈的反应。
Like, the the rhetorical impact of the existence of a trillionaire is obviously enormous, and I can understand why there has been such a reaction to that number and that event as crossing that line.
但与此同时，我对不平等和财富问题的总体看法是，如果大家都能分享到成果，那少数人拥有大量财富本身并不该成为问题。
But at the same time, my general view on things like inequality and wealth is that if people do share in the proceeds, I don't think it should matter that a small number of individuals hold a large amount of that wealth.
不过我刚才也提到，我认为这种财富集中在极少数人手中的趋势不该继续加剧。
Now I said I don't think the concentration that the the amount hold held by that small number should keep going up.
但我的基本立场是，如果创新、财富积累以及激励创新的机制最终能让所有人都变得更富裕，那我对这个过程总体上是持中立态度的。
But my general view is that if innovation, wealth, and the incentives of creating innovation, wealth, lead everyone to get richer, then I'm broadly agnostic about that.
而且有相当多的证据表明，近几十年来，美国最底层10%人群的生活水平也有了不错的改善，至少比英国最底层10%的人群要好得多。
And I would say there's decent evidence that living standards for those at the in the bottom 10% of The US have also been doing reasonably well over the over the relatively recent years, certainly better than the bottom 10% of The UK.
所以我理解为什么第一个万亿富翁的出现会引发这么大的愤怒和不公感，但我希望，通过合理的监管和再分配，能让尽可能多的社会成员从中受益。
So, yeah, I understand why the existence of the first trillionaire causes so much anger and sense of injustice, but my hope would be that regulation redistribution ensures that as broad a section of society as possible can still benefit from this.
约翰·伯恩-默多克是《金融时报》的专栏作家兼首席数据记者。
John Burn-Murdoch is a columnist and a chief data reporter for The Financial Times.
约翰，我很喜欢这场对话。
John, I love this conversation.
谢谢您今天抽出时间。
Thanks for your time today.
非常感谢您邀请我参加。
Thank you so much for having me.
本期节目由詹妮弗·桑切斯和劳拉·詹纳制作。
This episode was produced by Jennifer Sanchez and Laura Jenner.
卡米·里克负责社交媒体运营。
Kami Riek is our social producer.
比安卡·罗萨里奥·拉米雷斯担任视频剪辑。
Bianca Rosario Ramirez is our video editor.
德鲁·伯罗斯是我们的技术总监。
And Drew Burrows is our technical director.
感谢您收听来自profgmedia的《Profg Pod》。
Thank you for listening to the profg pod from profgmedia.
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