为什么人工智能股票被高估了？+ 参加社交活动真的值得吗？

有一天，借助科学的力量，你或许就能永生。

One day, with the help of science, you might be able to live forever.

永生。

Forever.

你的身体只需要偶尔做个保养就行。

Your body will just need a couple tune ups.

四十岁左右换骨髓，五十岁换肾脏，六十岁换心脏，依此类推，到了九十岁左右，甚至可能来一次全身器官移植。

Injecting bone marrow in your forties, your kidney in your fifties, your heart in your sixties, and and so on, and then potentially a whole body transplant by the time that you were 90.

本期《为你解释》节目，带你探索长寿的奥秘。

This week on Explain It To Me, the quest for longevity.

新节目每周日上线，各大播客平台都能找到。

Find new episodes, Sundays, wherever you get your podcasts.

欢迎收听《与Prop G的办公时间》。

Welcome to Office Hours with Prop G.

这是节目里我们回答你们关于商业、科技巨头、创业以及任何你关心话题的环节。

This is the part of the show where we answer your questions about business, big tech, entrepreneurship, and whatever else is on your mind.

另外，如果你想提交问题供下次使用，可以发送语音留言到 officehours@prop.com。

Anyway, if you'd like to submit a question for next time, can send a voice recording to officehours@prop.com.

再次提醒，邮箱是 officehours@propgmedia.com，或者在 Scott Galloway 的 Reddit 子版块里发帖，我们有可能会在下一期节目中选用你的问题。

Again, that's officehours@propgmedia.com or post your question on the Scott Galloway subreddit and we just might feature it in our next episode.

现在你还可以打电话或发短信问问题，号码是 (201) 472-3656。

Plus, now you can call or text us a question at (201) 472-3656.

就是 (201) 472-3656。

That's (201) 472-3656.

咱们直接进入正题吧。

Let's bust right into it.

第一个问题来自一位听众的邮件。

Our first question comes from a listener who emailed us.

嗨，Scott。

Hi, Scott.

我是 Pablo，现在住在马萨诸塞州的波士顿。

This is Pablo, and I currently live in Boston, Massachusetts.

首先，感谢你所做的工作，也感谢你始终对重要话题提出深刻见解。

First, thank you for your work you do and for consistently bringing sharp opinions to important topics.

我特别喜欢ProfG Media旗下的整个播客系列。

I really enjoy the podcast family across ProfG Media.

我从事人工智能的落地与咨询工作，发现很多公司里都出现了AI疲劳的现象。

I work in AI adoption and consulting, and I'm seeing what feels like AI fatigue across organizations.

对很多员工来说，AI现在就像每年必须完成的清单任务，除了本职工作，还得额外花时间去学习和跟进。

For many employees, AI is starting to feel like an annual checklist, something they're expected to learn and keep up on top of their actual job.

与此同时，管理者们也在为衡量AI的投资回报率而头疼，很难说清楚为什么还要持续投入，而且使用AI的往往只是少数人。

At the same time, managers are struggling to measure ROI and justify ongoing AI spending, and adoption often seems concentrating among small groups.

你怎么看？

What's your take?

人们对AI的期待，是不是已经超出了组织实际能消化的能力？

Are expectations for AI outpacing organizations' ability to absorb it?

如果是这样，这对未来的生产力、AI投入，以及整个市场和经济会带来什么影响？

And if so, what does that mean for productivity, AI investment, and for the broader market and economy over the next few years?

再次感谢。

Thank you again.

谢谢你的提问。

Thanks for the question.

我觉得这个问题很多人都在问投资者、首席财务官和用户。

And I think it's a question a lot of people are asking investors, CFOs, users.

AI的投入确实在增加。

So AI spending is up.

这很明显。

That's pretty obvious.

预计到2026年，全球AI支出将达到2.6万亿美元，同比增长47%。

Worldwide spending on AI is forecast to total 2,600,000,000,000 in 2026, a 47% increase year over year.

2025年全球AI总支出为1.76万亿美元。

And total AI spending in 2025 was 1,760,000,000,000.

所以你看，从大约1.8万亿增长到2.6万亿。

So as you can see from about 1.8 to 2.6.

对大多数工作来说，人工其实还是更划算。

For most functions, human labor actually remains more cost effective.

不过这种情况能持续多久，还得看token价格什么时候降下来。

Now, how long that lasts will be seen as token pricing comes down.

英伟达应用深度学习部门的副总裁说，他们团队用AI的成本比雇员工还高。

NVIDIA VP of Applied Deep Learning claims that for his team AI costs more than the employees themselves.

2024年麻省理工的一项研究发现，在77%的视觉类任务中，用人比用AI更便宜。

The 2024 MIT study found that 77% of vision based tasks, it is cheaper to employ humans than AI.

上个月，微软在开放Cloud Code服务仅六个月后，就取消了大部分直接授权。

And last month Microsoft began canceling most of its direct Cloud Code licenses just six months after opening access to it.

我不禁想，这背后是不是他们在故意抹黑Anthropic，好为自家或者OpenAI的模型造势。

I wonder how much of that is I'm trying to, I don't know, shitpost anthropic in, you know, in favor of their own or OpenAI's LLMs.

我觉得这里面可能有些政治因素。

I think there might be some politics there.

不管怎样，市场上的情况是，一项针对六千名企业高管的调查显示，90%的公司表示，过去三年AI对生产力没有任何明显影响。

Anyways, what we're seeing in the market, a survey of 6,000 senior business executives found that 90% of firms report AI having no impact on productivity over the last three years.

69%的企业正在积极使用AI，其中年轻且生产效率更高的企业使用率更高。

69% of firms actively use AI with higher usage rates at younger, more productive firms.

三分之二的高管定期使用AI，但平均每周使用时间只有一个半小时。

And two thirds of execs regularly use AI, but their average usage is just one and a half hours a week.

根据Apollo首席经济学家、本节节目的朋友托尔sten·斯拉赫的说法，目前除了科技行业外，其他公司还没有看到AI提升利润率的迹象。

According to Apollo chief economist, Thorsten Slach, a friend of the pod, there are no signs of AI boosting profit margins for companies outside of the tech sector.

然而，摩根士丹利的研究显示，采用AI的企业其现金流利润率的增长速度是全球平均水平的两倍。

Yet according to Morgan Stanley research, AI adopters are seeing their cash flow margin expansion outpacing the global average by two x.

AI工具将程序员在单个文件上的生产力提升了290%，但仅使公司整体代码产品的效率提高了30%。

AI tools increased coder productivity on individual files by 290%, but only uplifted a company codes product by 30%.

我们确实看到美国经济的生产力有所提升，我认为这确实与AI有关，但我目前对AI股票持谨慎态度。

We have seen an increase in productivity in The US economy, which I do think is a function of AI, but I'm a bear around AI stocks right now.

我对AI技术持乐观态度。

I'm bullish on AI technology.

我觉得这项技术会持续下去，虽然未必能达到人们预期的那样，但一定会极大释放生产力。

I think the technology will survive, and it will, I don't want to say live up to the expectations, but be an incredible unlock for productivity.

我不认为会出现人们预测的那种劳动力危机，很多这类说法其实只是投资者关系在吹嘘自己的技术有多颠覆，声称会引发劳动力市场的混乱。

I don't think we're going to have the labor apocalypse that's being predicted, and I think a lot of those predictions are just investor relations saying my technology is so disruptive, it's going to create chaos in labor markets.

请给我下一轮融资，估值随便开高点。

Please fund my next round at ridiculous valuation.

我觉得接下来会迎来一段ROI低迷期，结果很可能导致市场出现显著回调。

So I think you're going to see a kind of a desert or an era of disappointment around ROI that will result in a pretty serious drawdown.

但不会像2000年那样彻底崩盘，因为这些公司的收入已经增长了五倍到十倍。

Not a collapse that we saw in 2000, because these companies are five and 10x ing their revenues.

可现在来看，他们的增长和盈利几乎不可能达到当前估值所预期的水平。

But at this point it feels almost impossible for their growth and earnings to meet the expectations built into the current valuations.

所以我认为，我们马上就要进入注重回报的阶段了。

So I think we're about to enter into the ROI phase.

比如，在设计领域，就已经出现了负回报的情况。

So for example, an area where there has been negative ROI is in the design space.

IBM和科技公司中设计师占员工总数的比例实际上还在上升，因为这种以用户为中心、独特且有辨识度的设计，比以往任何时候都更重要。

The number of designers at IBM and tech companies as a percentage of total employees has actually gone up, because this sort of human centered, interesting, differentiated design is more important than ever.

AI在视觉和设计方面其实并没有表现出很强的能力。

And AI hasn't proven to be great at visuals and design.

还记得可口可乐那支AI做的广告吗？还有Sora设计的东西，结果Sora后来被停掉了。

Remember that Coca Cola doing the AI commercial, and Sora designing things, and you know Sora was shut down.

与此同时，我觉得你会看到很多没什么意思的领域，比如供应链。

At the same time, I think you're going to see a lot of, I don't know, boring shit like supply chain.

我跟FlexBoard的CEO聊过，他们很大一部分工作就是有人不停地跟踪货运、打电话问：这个货现在什么情况？

I was speaking to the CEO of FlexBoard, and so much of their efforts are people just tracking shipments and calling people and saying what is the status of this?

还要谈合同、解决问题。

And negotiating agreements and solving problems.

我觉得让AI之间互相沟通，或者大模型之间互相协作，很可能就能解决这些问题。

And it feels like AI speaking to each other, or know LLM speaking to each other, can probably solve a lot of that.

我发现真正能带来改变的，反而是这些枯燥的事。

I find that it's the boring stuff that moves the needle.

那我到底想表达什么呢？

So what am I saying here?

我觉得我们正从实验阶段和信号阶段过渡到更切实的回报阶段。

I don't, I think we are entering or leaving the experimental phase and the signaling phase, and are moving to the more tangible ROI phase.

这势必会导致人工智能股票估值大幅下调，我认为目前的估值根本不可持续。

And I think that is going to involve substantial drawdown in the valuation of AI stocks, which I believe are at unsustainable valuations right now.

话虽如此，当像我这样的人一致认为东西被高估时，价格往往反而会暴涨。

Now having said that, when people like me all agree that things are overvalued, they usually go up dramatically from there.

等到大家彻底放弃，说‘这次不一样了，这是个新时代’的时候，泡沫才真正破裂。

And then when people throw in the towel and say, oh, it's a new world and it's different this time, that's when it crashes.

不过现在这感觉真的很像1999年。

Although it is feeling very 99 to me.

总的来说，期望值已经远远超出了企业实际能消化的能力。

So in sum, yeah, expectations have outpaced organizations' ability to absorb it.

毫无疑问，这已经远远超过了所有人的预期。

No doubt, you know, I think it's outpaced every single expectation.

那么，这对一家公司来说到底意味着什么？

So, you know, does that mean what does that mean for a corporation?

我觉得 CFO 很快就要出台更多管控措施了，而不是让 CEO 只是不断空谈，想靠这个抬高股价，或者掩盖管理层的糟糕决策。

I think the CFO is about to implement more guardrails, rather than the CEO just talking about it more and more to improve their stock price or wallpaper over management's poor decision making.

我认为我们正从实验阶段进入所谓的回报期，这会对 AI 各个层面的估值带来压力，但同时也会大幅扩大我所说的‘采用层’。

I do think we're entering into quote unquote the ROI era from the experimentation era, which will put pressure on every component or layer of AI relative to the current valuations, but also expand substantially what I call the adoption layer.

我觉得现在正是帮助公司判断该在哪些地方投入 AI、哪些地方不该投入的好时机。

I think it's going to be a very good time to be in the business of helping companies make decisions around where to spend on AI and where not to spend on AI.

谢谢你的提问。

Thanks for the question.

第二个问题来自 Reddit 用户 definition l5196，他说：嗨，斯科特，我今年 25 岁，住在伦敦，今年初自己开了家体育营销公司。

Question number two comes from Reddit, definition l5196, who says, hi Scott, I'm a 25 year old male from London and set up my own sports marketing business at the beginning of this year.

目前我只有一个客户，是内部合作的，主要跟全球品牌谈体育赛事的赞助事宜。

I have one client who currently I work for in house, and I speak to global brands about sponsorship of sports events.

我想知道你对戛纳国际创意节怎么看？

I want to know what's your opinion on Cannes Lions?

对于像我这样还没什么名气的年轻人来说，参加这个活动真的有助于拓展人脉、建立关系吗？

Is it actually any good for networking and building relationships for younger people who don't have much credibility yet?

今年他们专门搞了一个狮子奖的体育项目。

This year they have a specific Lions sport program.

问题是得花两千五百欧元，我现在还没法拿出这笔钱来投资到业务里做人脉拓展。

The problem is it costs €2,500, and I don't have that type of money to invest back into the business yet for relationship building.

那就算不去，光是去戛纳碰碰运气，认识点人，还值不值？

Is it still worth going to Cannes and trying to meet people whilst out there?

听我说，兄弟，没钱就是没钱，别硬撑。

Well look my brother, if you don't have the money, don't have the money.

说白了，市场已经替你做了决定。

So you know, my sense is the market has made that decision for you.

我和你处在不同阶段，我现在是该花钱的时候了。

I'm in a different stage than you, and that is I'm now in the spending part of my life.

我去戛纳狮子奖，根本不是为了搞人脉。

I don't go to Cannes Lions to network.

我一般是去讲几场演讲。

I usually get a couple speaking gigs.

可惜今年我没有任何演讲邀约了。

Unfortunately, I don't have any speaking gigs this year.

天哪。

Oh my god.

我的职业生涯完了。

My career is over.

我就像件过时的裙子一样被扔在一边。

I've been cast aside like an old dress.

但我还是去，因为我真的喜欢。我确实会认识些人，但主要是去我最爱的酒店——卡普酒店，下午一点钟就开始喝玫瑰酒。

So, but I go because I love it, and that is I do some networking, but I go, I hole up at my favorite hotel in the world, the Hotel Du Cap, and I start drinking rose around 1PM.

然后我坐上快艇，一路驶向海边，总像凯旋的英雄一样，走到Facebook或Meta海滩的那片区域。

And then I take a zodiac into the palate and I roll up, and I always pull up to the Bronx side of Facebook or Meta Beach and walk through like a conquering hero.

所以如果你才25岁，手头紧，或者负担不起，我建议别去。

So if you're 25 and don't have the money, or it's a stretch, I wouldn't do it.

我觉得你现在最该做的，就是埋头专注做自己的事业。

I just think you want to be focused on your business heads down.

我觉得在伦敦，有更多便宜的方式来建立人脉和参加相关活动。

I think there's probably less expensive ways to network and networking functions in London.

那里一大半都是广告行业的高管。

It is a lot of ad executives.

内容和人脉交流确实不少。

There is a lot of content and networking.

但戛纳狮子奖这事儿，价格真的高得离谱。

But the thing about Cannes Lions is it's pretty damn expensive.

大家都挤在卡尔顿酒店，喝着十八到二十四欧元一杯的红酒。

Everyone ends up at the Carlton Hotel drinking 18 or 24 Euro glasses of wine.

说白了，别光顾着到处跑，真正消耗你的不只是钱，更是时间。

A word salad to say keep your head down, and it's not even the economic cost, it's the time cost.

你不如专心做好产品、做出好内容，找些本地便宜点的方式慢慢建立关系，等经济宽裕了再去——那两千五百欧元，只是戛纳狮子奖开销的起步价。

I would keep your head down trying to produce great product, great content, and find other less expensive local ways to build relationships, and wait until you're more comfortable because that €2,500 is just the start of your expenses in Cannes Lions.

住个Airbnb都贵得吓人，啥都涨价，简直是在宰人。

I mean, it's expensive to get an Airbnb, everything you can't you know, it's just they jack up the prices.

法国南部消费很高。

The South Of France is expensive.

所以你现在最好低调一点，先把公司做起来，等将来条件更成熟了，再去参加像戛纳狮子奖这样的活动。

So I would I would keep your head down right now so that's how you can build your company and be in a more comfortable position to go to something like Cannes Lions at some point in the future.

另外，也可以查查有没有给年轻人的奖学金。

And and also investigate if they have scholarships for young.

他们有个叫‘青年狮子’的项目，说不定你刚才说的就是这个，他们会补贴你的差旅费用。

They have something called Young Lions, and maybe that's what you're already talking about, where they will subsidize subsidize your trip.

不管怎样，我希望能在那儿见到你，只是别今年去，也许五年或十年后吧。

Anyways, I hope to see you there, but not this year, in maybe five or ten years.

谢谢你的提问。

Thanks for the question.

短暂休息后，我们马上回来。

We'll be right back after a quick break.

本节目由BUILT赞助支持。

Support for the show comes from BUILT.

这事儿没别的办法。

There's no way around it.

住房成本太高了。

Housing is expensive.

不管是房租还是房贷，每个月都得掏一大笔钱。

Rent, mortgage, it doesn't matter which one you're paying.

谁也不乐意每个月都花这么多钱。

Nobody likes letting go a big chunk of change every month.

BUILT 就是为了减轻这种负担而推出的。

BUILT was created to help ease that sting.

BUILT 最初是给租房用户返现的。

BUILT started out rewarding members on their rent.

他们当初就是靠这个出名的。

That's what they were known for.

但到了2026年，就不只是针对租客了。

But now, as of 2026, it's not just for renters.

现在，BUILT会员无论住在哪里，都能在还房贷时累积积分。

BUILD members can now earn points on mortgage payments wherever they live.

每一次住房付款都能让你赚取积分，这些积分可以兑换与联合航空、凯悦等顶级旅行伙伴合作的航班，还能用于Lyft打车、亚马逊购物，以及其他更多用途。

Every housing payment earns you points you can use toward flights with top travel partners, including United and Hyatt, Lyft rides, amazon.com purchases, and much more.

但最被低估的其实是这一点。

But here's the most underrated part.

BUILT会员还能享受他们称之为社区管家的服务。

BUILT members also get access to what they call a neighborhood concierge.

它可以帮你预订餐厅、预约健身课程，发现本地新去处，同时在超过四万五千家合作商户那里继续累积奖励。

It can make restaurant reservations, book fitness classes, and find new local spots, all while being rewarded at more than 45,000 merchant partners.

这就好比你住的地方自带了一个私人助理。

It's basically like having a personal assistant baked into where you live.

很简单。

It's simple.

无论是租房还是买房，有了BUILT都更划算。

Being a renter and now owning a home is better with BUILT.

下载BUILT应用，并通过joinbuilt.com/propg加入会员，享受你所在社区的专属服务。

Download the BUILT app and join membership for where you live at joinbuilt.com/propg.

网址是joinbilt.com/propg。

That's joinbilt.com/propg.

记得用我们的链接注册，这样他们就知道是我们推荐你来的。

Use our link so they know we sent you.

感谢对本节目的支持

Support for the show

这来自NetSuite。

comes from NetSuite.

当竞争对手动作越来越快，各行各业都开始采用人工智能时，我们到底该怎么跟上节奏呢？

When competition is moving faster and businesses in every sector are starting to adopt AI, how do we even begin to keep up?

NetSuite Next。

NetSuite Next.

大家应该都听说过NetSuite吧，这是一款由人工智能驱动的业务管理平台，能够安全地整合你所有的数据。

You probably know NetSuite, the AI powered business management suite that securely connects all of your data.

这是一个统一的平台，把财务、库存、电商、人力资源和客户关系管理全都整合在一起，形成唯一可信的数据源，已有超过四万三千家企业在使用。

It's a unified suite that brings your financials, inventory, commerce, HR, and CRM into a single source of truth, trusted by over 43,000 customers.

NetSuite Next 是商业运作方式的又一次巨大飞跃，因为人工智能已经深度融入你做的每一件事。

NetSuite Next is the next huge leap in how business gets done because AI is built into everything you do.

它会自动在你日常工作中提炼出个性化的洞察。

It automatically surfaces custom insights throughout your day.

AI助手会像同事一样陪你工作，帮你解决问题，处理日常事务。

AI agents work alongside you to solve problems and handle routine work.

无论你有什么疑问，随时像跟同事聊天一样问出来就行。

And anytime you have a question about anything, just ask like you're talking to a colleague.

不管你公司年收入是几百万还是上亿，现在都该试试 NetSuite Next，让你的业务真正与人工智能结合。

Whether your company earns millions or even hundreds of millions, it's time for NetSuite Next, where your business meets AI.

历史上第一次，你可以免费试用 NetSuite Next。

For the first time ever, you can try NetSuite Next for free.

如果你的年收入达到七位数以上，就去 netsuite.ai/propg 注册吧。

If your revenues are at least in the 7 figures, go to netsuite.ai/propg.

适用于各个行业，随时准备进入董事会，访问 netsuite.ai/propg。

Built for every industry, ready for every boardroom, netsuite.ai/propg.

本节目由 Lisa 赞助支持。

Support for the show comes from Lisa.

一张合适的床垫，每次躺上去都像重新开始一样，尤其在长途通勤、旅行之后，或者站了一整天的时候。

The right mattress feels like a reset every time you lay on it, especially after a long commute or travel day or spending all day on your feet.

没有什么比陷进一张柔软又承托得当的床里更舒服的了。

There's nothing like sinking into a soft and supportive bed.

如果你想找一张床垫来给自己来个彻底重启，那就去看看 Leesa 吧。

If you're looking for a reset button in the form of a new mattress, then check out Leesa.

Leesa 提供一系列精心打造的床垫，专为你的睡眠习惯量身设计。

Leesa has a lineup of beautifully crafted mattresses tailored to how you sleep.

每一张床垫都根据常见的睡姿和个人偏好进行了专门优化。

Each mattress is designed with specific sleep positions and a field preference in mind.

Leesa 床垫在美国精心设计和组装，品质卓越，还提供免费配送、无忧退换，以及 120 天的试睡保障。

Leesa mattresses are meticulously designed and assembled in The USA for exceptional quality, and they back it all up with free shipping, easy returns, and a hundred and twenty night sleep trial.

Lisa的床垫被《纽约时报》Wirecutter评为最佳混合床垫和最佳记忆棉床垫。

Lisa has been awarded best hybrid and best memory foam mattress by New York Times wire cutter.

从第一晚开始，你就能感受到明显不同。

From the first night, you'll feel the difference.

舒适感十足，全身都能得到充分支撑。

It's serious comfort with full body support.

只需完成Leesa的睡眠测试，两分钟内就能找到最适合你的床垫。

Just take the Leesa sleep quiz, and you'll find the perfect match in two minutes or less.

前往leesa.com，精选床垫立减30%，再使用促销码prop g，额外再减50美元，仅限我们的听众专享。

Go to leesa.com for 30% off a select mattress, plus get an extra $50 off of promo code prop g, exclusive for our listeners.

就是leesa.com，促销码prop g，精选床垫享30%折扣，再额外减50美元。

That's leesa.com, promo code prop g, for 30% off select mattress plus an extra $50 off.

使用我们的代码，就是在支持我们的节目。

And when you use our code, you're supporting our show.

leesa.com，促销码prop g。

That's lisa.com, promo code prop g.

欢迎回来。

Welcome back.

第三个问题来自原始号码191-99。

Question number three is from original one ninety one dash 99.

你好，Scott，我以前是大学生运动员。

Hi, Scott, former college athlete here.

你提到过在加州大学洛杉矶分校划船的经历。

You've talked about your experience rowing at UCLA.

首先，你是怎么开始这项相对小众的运动的？它又如何影响了你的个人和职业发展？

First off, how did you get into that sport since it's somewhat niche, and how did it shape you personally and professionally?

我从小就开始打球。

So I played sports growing up.

我九岁的时候达到巅峰，那时候是圣费尔南多谷地最出色的投手。

I was I peaked at the age of nine, I was like all San Fernando Valley pitcher.

后来我经历了一段持续大约八年的长高期，个子变得特别高，但体重没怎么变，整个人看起来像伊卡博德·克兰。

Then I hit a growth spurt that lasted about another, I don't know, eight years where I became exceptionally tall, but my weight stayed the same, so I looked like Ichabod Crane.

我当时皮肤特别差，整个人简直就是个灾难现场。

I also had really bad skin, which made for just a cocktail of just sexy.

但我的运动能力下滑了，因为个子太高，人又太瘦。

But my athletic skills waned because I was just so tall and skinny.

到了高中快结束的时候，情况才稍微好了一点。

And then they sort of caught up a little bit towards the end of high school.

我进了高中的棒球队，结果没多久就被淘汰了。

I made the baseball team at my high school, then got cut.

我上加州大学洛杉矶分校后，心想，我真想成为一级运动员。

And I got to UCLA and I thought, I would really like to be a D1 athlete.

我开始增肌，心想：好吧，我确实没有那些真正顶尖运动员的本事，但我听说过划船队。

And I started putting on some muscle and thought, okay, I don't have the skills that these real athletes have at UCLA, But I'd heard about crew.

我个子高，身体也算过得去，就去试训了划船队。

I was tall, and I thought of reasonably good shape, so I tried out for crew.

我成功入选了。

I made the team.

我很容易就被选上了，这可不是我吹牛。

I was easily I'm not exaggerating.

那时候，赛艇是校队项目。

So crew at that point was a varsity sport.

但现在不是了。

It no longer is now.

它变成社团活动了。

It's a club sport.

不过说实在的，不管从什么角度看，它在学校的体育体系里都排在最末尾。

But it was kind of, you know, in terms of prestige anyway, it was on the low end of the totem pole.

我们没法从人那儿筹到几百万美元，人家也不图个前排座位。

We weren't raising millions of dollars from people who wanted to get front row seats.

他们更愿意去看雷吉·米勒打球，或者去看特洛伊·艾克曼踢足球。

You know, they would rather go see Reggie Miller or see Troy Aikman at the basketball or football games.

我们赛艇队一共有31个人，赛艇这项目特别讲究数据指标。

And there were 31 people on our crew team, crew is very much about metrics.

他们一直在测你的划船时间、引体向上，还有绕校园跑五点四英里的速度，就是在加州大学洛杉矶分校。

They're constantly measuring your your row time, your pull ups, your how fast you run the perimeter, five and a quarter miles at UCLA.

幸好有个叫大卫·诺克顿的人——我想他应该是这个名字。

And thank God this guy's name, think it was David Naughton.

不对，那个演多乐士汽水广告、还在《美国狼人在伦敦》里演过的家伙。

No, that's the guy from the Doctor Pepper commercials who was in American Werewolf in London.

算了，就叫他大卫·诺克顿吧。

Well, let's just call him David Naughton.

不过幸好有大卫，他每次都排第31名，而我总是第30名。

But thank God for David, because David always came in thirty first and I always came in thirtieth.

我是队里倒数第二差的，说白了就是最没天赋的那个人。

I was the second least, I would say worst, least talented person on the crew team.

我不喜欢这项运动。

I didn't like it.

我觉得又累人又无聊透顶。

I thought it was an enormous pain and monotonous.

我当时在兄弟会里，几乎每晚都喝得烂醉，也不是每晚，但三四晚是常事。

I was in a fraternity getting fucked up every night, or not every night, but three or four nights.

他们管我叫‘Up Chuck Norris’，因为每天早上五点半在博洛尼亚溪和马里纳德尔雷伊开始划船后，大概十分钟内我就得吐。

They used to call me Up Chuck Norris because within about ten minutes of starting to row at 05:30 in the morning in Bologna Creek and Marina Del Rey, I would chow.

像我这样坐在前排的人，大家划船经过的时候，都能清清楚楚看到我吐的东西。

And if you're as I was, if you're, I think I was bowman, that means everybody gets to see your vomit as we rode past it.

划船队里的人挺特别的，我那条船上有一半人都是医学生。

And crew attracts an unusual breed, a very like half my boat was pre med.

他们都是特别认真、自律的年轻人，而我完全不是那种人。

They were like a very serious, disciplined group of young men, and I was none of those things.

所以我根本不喜欢划船。

So I did not enjoy crew.

不过话说回来，这段经历对我帮助特别大，因为它给了我两样东西。

Now having said that, it was hugely beneficial to me, because crew gave me a couple things.

第一，它让我拿到了摩根士丹利的工作。

One, it got me my job at Morgan Stanley.

我到处去面试，没拿到几个offer，结果去摩根士丹利面试时，固定收益部门的负责人一进来就说：你可以回去了。

I interviewed everywhere, I didn't get many offers, and I walked into my interview at Morgan Stanley, and the head of the fixed income department or the department came in and said, you can go home.

划船队的人能直接被录用，因为你愿意拼命。

Oarsmen and Oarswomen get an automatic hire because you're willing to kill yourself.

所以我基本上是因为参加了划船队才拿到这份工作。

So I basically got a job offer because I was on crew.

但划船真正给我的，是让我明白：绝大多数人——尤其是在这个极力回避痛苦的时代——99%的人都根本不知道自己的极限在哪。

But the thing it really gave me was that the majority, 99% of people, especially in a modern age where we try to screen out the pain in our lives, 99% of people will never know their true limits.

他们总觉得：我受不了这种心碎。

They think, oh I can't endure this heartbreak.

我扛不住工作里的身体折磨。

I can't endure this physical pain at work.

我应付不了孩子表现不好带来的焦虑和压力。

I can't endure the anxiety and the stress of my kid not doing well.

但当你真正去划船时，你会意识到，你根本不清楚自己到底能承受多少。

What you realize when you row crew is that you have absolutely no real sense of your limits.

在划船比赛过程中，某个时刻你的腿会完全没知觉，因为血液根本来不及流到那里。

And that is during crew at some point you can't feel your legs when you're in a race, because the blood isn't getting there fast enough.

你吸进来的空气像火一样灼烧食道，你得靠各种心理暗示才能不晕过去，因为实在太累了。

The air you're intaking, breathing in feels like fire going down your esophagus, and you have to deploy mental tricks to not pass out because you're that exhausted.

这种状态通常在800米左右出现，但每次你都能想办法撑到2000米。

That happens at about 800 meters, and every time you figure out a way to go to 2,000 meters.

划船教会我的是，哪怕我只是一个普通的划手，它也让我受益无穷——每当我觉得自己扛不住创业的挫败和焦虑，扛不住离婚带来的情感压力，或者觉得家里、孩子、妈妈那边的事实在压得我喘不过气，觉得自己已经到极限了，其实你才刚走到真正极限的40%。

So what crew has taught me, and has paid off immensely despite the fact that I was just an inferior oarsman, is that whenever I think I can't take this frustration and anxiety of being an entrepreneur, I can't take, you know, the emotional stress of my divorce, or I think, wow, I just can't handle what's going on with my family or my kids, or you know, my mom being whatever it is, whatever faces you that really you think is testing you, when you think I can't take any more, that means you're about 40% of your way to your actual limit.

知道只要坚持下去，自己一定能挺过来，这种信心带来的优势，简直无可估量。

And having that confidence that you're going to be fine, that you can get through this as long as you just keep growing, is an unbelievable advantage.

我刚在摩根士丹利上班的时候，还住在妈妈家。

I used to, when my first job at Morgan Stanley, I was living at home with my mom.

那时候我还没女朋友。

I didn't have a girlfriend.

也没养狗。

I didn't have dogs.

说实话，我当时的文化水平还不如摩根士丹利那另外85个分析师。

And quite frankly, I wasn't as well educated as the other 85 analysts at Morgan Stanley.

不是因为我上的学校差，而是我上的是那种容易被忽略、能躲起来混日子的学校，我在加州大学洛杉矶分校就是如此——那时候我太不成熟，每周多半会吸个两三回大麻，喝不少酒，然后就光顾着看《人猿星球》。

Not because I went to an inferior school, but I went to a school where you could get lost and hide and learn almost fucking nothing, which is what happened to me at UCLA because I was immature and more focused on, you know, watching Planet of the Yapes after getting ridiculously fucking high two or three times a week and drinking a lot.

我几乎什么都没学到，就记住了齐柏林飞艇每张专辑的歌词，这倒挺棒的，真的挺棒。

And I was able to learn almost nothing other than, you know, the words from every Led Zeppelin album, which is awesome, which is awesome.

但到了摩根士丹利，我就想明白了：什么是策略？

But I decided when I got to Morgan Stanley, all right, what is strategy?

策略就是利用自己独特的长处或资源，在市场上把自己和别人区分开来。

Strategy is applying a unique strength or asset to try and differentiate yourself in the marketplace.

于是我决定，作为第一年的分析师，每个周二我都早上九点到公司。

So I decided as a first year analyst, every Tuesday I would go in at nine a.

上午九点。

M.

然后一直待到晚上六点。

And I would stay till six p.

点。

M.

周三。

On Wednesday.

我会通宵工作。

I would work through the night.

基本上，你知道的，我会连续工作三十三个小时。

I would work basically, you know, kind of thirty three hours straight.

大家都注意到了，觉得我疯了或者怎么样，但那时候的公司文化就是那种互相折磨的类型，他们还挺吃这一套的。

And people noticed and thought I was crazy or whatever, but it was an abusive culture back then, and they kind of liked that.

但我想证明我是来真刀真枪干活的。

But I wanted to show that I came to play.

我知道凌晨三点的时候，

And I knew that at three a.

我累得半死，还在看招股书或者做表格，反正就是那时候我们干的那些活儿，大多数人肯定心想，哎，我受不了了，得回家睡觉。

When I was just fucking exhausted and reading a prospectus or doing a spreadsheet or whatever it was we did back then, that most people would think, oh I can't take it, I've to go home and sleep.

我知道自己当时才跑了800米。

I knew that I was at 800 meters.

离我的极限还远着呢，我完全能撑到下午六点。

I wasn't even close to my limit, and that I could get through to six p.

是的。

M.

第二天基本一点事都没有。

The following day pretty much no problem.

我觉得自己比大多数遇到的人都更有韧劲，更能坚持。

And I have, I think, I have more grit and more perseverance than most of the people I've run across.

但现在我会随时都这么拼吗？

Now do I deploy that all the time?

不会。

No.

年纪大了，我就更喜欢偷懒了，你知道的。

As I get older I love being lazy and, you know?

但到了关键时候，真正该拼命的时候，我能拼得比谁都狠，这份韧劲是划船带给我的。

But when it counted, when it was go time, I could go as hard or harder than anybody, and I got that from crew.

这对我来说是一次巨大的成长。

So it was an enormous learning for me.

我看待划船经历的方式，大概就跟很多人看待自己当兵的经历一样——他们不后悔做过这件事。

And the way I look at my experience at crew or on crew is similar to, I think, the way a lot of people look at their experience in the marines, and that is they're glad they did it.

都是过去的事了。

Past tense.

但能分清自己以为的极限和真正的极限之间的差距，这其实是一种福气。

But, yeah, the ability to the ability to know just the delta between what you think are your limits and your actual limits is a blessing.

谢谢你的问题。

Thanks for the question.

本期就到这里。

That's all for this episode.

如果你有想问的问题，欢迎把语音留言发送到 officehours@profmedia.com。

If you'd like to submit a question, please email a voice recording to officehours@profmedia.com.

再次提醒，邮箱是 officehours@prof2media.com。

Again, that's officehours@prof2media.com.

如果你更喜欢在 Reddit 上提问，就去 Scott Galloway 的子版块发帖，我们可能会在下一期节目中选用你的问题。

Or if you prefer to ask on Reddit, just post your question on the Scott Galloway subreddit, and we might feature it in an upcoming episode.

本期节目由詹妮弗·桑切斯和劳拉·詹纳制作。

This episode was produced by Jennifer Sanchez and Laura Jenner.

卡米·里卡负责社交媒体，布拉德·威廉姆斯担任剪辑，德鲁·伯罗斯是技术总监。

Cami Rica is our social producer, Brad Williams is our editor, and Drew Burrows is our technical director.

感谢收听 Prophecy Media 出品的《Prophecy Pop》。

Thank you for listening to the Prophecy Pop from Prophecy Media.