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事情变得艰难时，你是如何与自己对话的？
Things get hard, how do you talk to yourself?
我是罗宾·阿肖恩，Peloton健身课程副总裁兼首席教练。
I'm Robin Arshon, VP of fitness programming and head instructor at Peloton.
本周，在我的新播客《Project Swagger》中，我将分享如何建立更积极的自我对话的策略。
And this week on my new podcast, project swagger, I'm sharing my strategies for how to build better self talk.
是时候开始学会与自己成为朋友了。
It's time to work on befriending yourself.
请在你收听播客的任何平台关注《Project Swagger》。
Follow Project Swagger wherever you get your podcasts.
对许多美国人来说，信用卡债务仿佛是生活的常态。
For a lot of Americans, credit card debt feels like a fact of life.
我认为，让人们理解信用如何为你所用或与你为敌，非常重要。
I think it's just important for people to understand how credit can work for you or against you.
为什么这张小小的塑料卡会有如此大的力量？
Why that little piece of plastic has so much power?
这就是本周的《向我解释》。
That's this week on explain it to me.
每周日可在您收听播客的平台找到新节目。
Find new episodes Sundays wherever you get your podcasts.
我是梅根·拉皮诺。
Megan Rapinoe here.
本周的《再多一点》节目，内容丰富，适合每个人。
This week on a touch more, we've got something for everyone.
我们将讨论美国女子奥运选手获得的奖牌数超过男子选手、美国女子国家队即将参加“她相信杯”的阵容，以及WNBA劳资协议谈判的最新进展。
We're talking about The US women Olympians taking home more medals than the men, the US women's national team roster heading into the She Believes Cup, and the latest on the WNBA CBA negotiations.
请在您收听播客的平台以及YouTube上收听《再多一点》的最新一期。
Check out the latest episode of a touch more wherever you get your podcasts and on YouTube.
第385期。
Episode 385.
385
385
这是美国犹他州盐湖城的区号。
is the area code covering Salt Lake City, Utah.
1985年，《早餐俱乐部》上映。
In 1985, The Breakfast Club premiered.
怀孕的青少年和胎儿有什么共同点？
What what do a pregnant teen and the fetus have in common?
他们都在想：糟了。
They're both thinking, shit.
我妈妈会杀了我的。
My mom's gonna kill me.
走吧。
Go.
走吧。
Go.
走吧。
Go.
欢迎收听Prop Two Pod的第385期节目。
Welcome to the three hundred and eighty fifth episode of the Prop two Pod.
最近怎么样？
What's happening?
快到二月了，这意味着我们已经完成或几乎完成了一个月的抵制与退订行动。
It's almost the February, which means we've completed or nearly completed a month of resist and unsubscribe.
这个计划是在一个月内，试图遏制Big Tex的订阅增长，并向市场和总统传递一个信号——我们相信，总统只有在债券市场或股票市场下滑时，才会重新审视自己那些非理性甚至堕落的政策。
The idea was over the course of a month to try and put a dent in Big Tex subscription growth and send a signal to the markets and to the president, believing that the only time the president checks back from irrational and sometimes depraved policies is when the bond market or the stock market declines.
因此，我们在ResistUnsubscribe网站上整理了一份我们称之为‘零点’的名单。
So we pulled together a list at resistant unsubscribe of what we call ground zero.
这些主要是对订阅增长或缺乏订阅增长极为敏感的公司，大多为大型科技公司。
That is companies, big tech companies mostly, that are very sensitive to subscription growth or lack thereof.
还有我们所说的‘波及区’，即直接为ICE提供支持的公司。
And then what we call blast zone, and that is companies directly enabling ICE.
我们的想法是，这条渠道是我们可以拉动的，因为标普500指数中40%的权重仅来自十家公司，而这些公司对任何增长停滞都极为敏感。
And the belief was that this was the stream we could pull where 40% of the S and P is just 10 companies, and these companies are highly sensitive to any sort of check back in growth.
两个目标分别是：第一，发出信号；第二，提供激励。
The two objectives were one, signal, and two, incentives.
发出信号，旨在教育美国公众，让他们意识到他们手中隐藏着一种武器，而这种武器是在资本主义社会中最具革命性的行为——那就是不参与。
Signal, trying to educate the American public that they have this weapon hiding in plain sight, and that weapon is the most radical act in a capitalist society, and that is nonparticipation.
第二个目标是激励，让包括蒂姆·库克、杰夫·贝佐斯和萨姆·阿尔特曼在内的科技巨头高管们重新思考，意识到这并非单向的通道——如果他们继续支持、纵容，或者干脆无视这个政府的堕落与反资本主义行为，这最终会损害股东的利益。
The second was incentives, and that is have big tech executives ranging from Tim Cook to Jeff Bezos to Sam Altman check back and realize that it's just not a one way street, that if they enable, if they are sick of fans, if they quite frankly just continue to ignore the depravity and the anti capitalist activities of this administration, that it'll be good for their shareholders.
并发出一个强烈的信号，促使他们产生激励，从而在出席首映式或公开表态支持总统之前三思——尤其是当他们私下发消息给像我这样的人，抱怨自己多么厌恶这一切的时候。
And to send a strong signal that results in an incentive where they think twice before showing up at premieres or talking about supporting the president publicly when they're texting people, including myself, on how much they hate themselves.
我们也很讨厌你。
Well, we hate you too.
这并不能起到太大作用。
That's not helping a lot.
同时也要认识到，过度支付纪录片费用，或提供直接侵犯我们隐私权和宪法权利的数据，背后存在双重激励：不仅讨好总统对股东有利，也可能对股东有害。
And also to recognize overpaying for documentaries or providing data that directly violate our rights to privacy and constitutional rights, that there is a dual incentive, and that is it not only is good for shareholders to kiss up to the president, but it could also be bad for shareholders.
让我们来回顾一下。
So let's review.
信号。
Signal.
我们的社交媒体帖子获得了超过两千两百万次观看。
We had over 22,000,000 views of our social media posts.
我们无处不在。
We were everywhere.
到二月，我们网站的独立访客将达到约两百万次。
By the February, we'll have approximately 2,000,000 unique visits to the site.
为了让你了解这有多难，如果你要推出一个电子商务网站或内容网站，并试图吸引两百万独立访客，当你向别人申请预算去推广一个无人知晓的网站时，成本大约在四百五十万到八百万美元之间。
To give you a sense of how difficult that is, if you were to launch an ecommerce site or a content site and try and drive 2,000,000 unique visits, and you ask for a budget to try and inspire 2,000,000 visits to a site that no one had heard of before, it would cost you somewhere between 4 and a half and $8,000,000.
这是第一个战术性经验，那就是我们在Prop G Media多年来一直深耕社交媒体，无论是我们早年在L2做的视频，还是十五年前我刚当父亲、半夜喂奶时坚持做推特粉丝增长策略。
And that's sort of the first tactical learning, and that is we have a very strong social footprint that we've been working on for the better part of a decade and a half here at Prop G Media, whether it was videos we did at l two, whether it was me doing a follower strategy after night feedings with my first son fifteen years ago to to build a Twitter following.
我们一直持续投资社交媒体。
We have consistently invested in social media.
尽管我认为它正在撕裂我们社会的根基，但无论如何都无法回避这一点。
And while I think it's ripping at the fabric of our society, there's just no getting around it.
社交媒体现在已成为推动流量和影响力的核心手段。
Social media is now the means of driving traffic and influence across almost everything.
如果我审视不同的媒体渠道，传统媒体确实发挥了作用，我在这方面也有很多人脉。
And if I look at the different media vehicles, the traditional media did in fact play a role, and I have a lot of contacts there.
如果你看腻了我的脸，我理解。
And if you're sick of seeing my face, I get it.
我几乎出现在所有媒体上，从CNN到NPR，再到MS Now，随便你说哪个媒体平台。
I have been everywhere from CNN to NPR to MS Now to, you know, name name your media outlet.
我可能都上过。
I've probably been on it.
我们发现，传统媒体能带来光环效应，但真正产生重大影响的是一些出人意料的因素。
What we found is that traditional media creates a halo, but what has really moved the needle was some surprising things.
一篇发布在mpr.org网站上的NPR文章，产生了巨大影响。
An article posted to their website, mpr.org, an NPR article really moved the needle.
名人转发带来的病毒式传播。
A virality of celebrities posting.
当切尔西·哈ndler发布了一段她取消订阅的视频片段时，获得了超过12万点赞，观看量可能在一百万到两百万之间，我们网站的访问量因此激增了六七千次。
When Chelsea Handler posted a video, a reel of the thing she was unsubscribing for, it got over a 120,000 likes and probably between one and two million views, and we spiked visits to the site by about six or 7,000.
如果你算一下这笔账，把实际取消订阅的数量、科技巨头因此损失的收入乘以一个倍数，仅她一个人就可能让市场估值减少了100万到200万美元。
And if you do the math, and that is conversion to actual unsubs, number of unsubs, revenue that has been lost by Big Tech times the multiple, she alone probably took a million to $2,000,000 out of the market cap.
所以传统媒体的效果没那么好。
So traditional media, not as effective.
播客非常有效。
Podcasts, very effective.
但个人在自己的社交媒体上发布内容引发的病毒式传播，可能是最有效的。
But the virality of individuals posting on their own social media is probably number one.
我们得到了一些民选代表的提及。
We got some mentions from elected representatives.
众议员AOC和金辛格都提到了这件事。
Representative AOC and Kinzinger both mentioned it.
一些参议员也提到了这件事。
Some senators mentioned it.
这带来了流量吗？
Did that drive traffic?
我们没看到任何波动。
We didn't see a blip.
在某些情况下，新媒体，尤其是社交媒体，似乎仍在从传统媒体中汲取流量并吸走其关注度。
In some, it looks as if new media continues, especially social media continues to draft off of and suck oxygen from traditional media.
我们接下来该怎么做？
What do we do moving forward?
我们面临一些选择：与其他抵抗行动合作、继续推进、维持当前策略，或集中针对一家或多家公司。
We are faced with some options to partner with other resistance efforts, to keep going, maintain the current strategy, to zero in on one or more companies.
我们认真考虑过集中针对一家或两家公司。
We seriously considered zeroing in on one or maybe two companies.
这个问题在于，我们喜欢这个运动的一点是，我们并不充当仲裁者，决定你在重新订阅时应该或不应该订阅什么。
The problem is one of the things we like about this movement is that we're not being arbiters of what you should or should not subscribe to when you resubscribe.
这原本是一场为期一个月的行动。
This was meant to be a one month effort.
因此，我们不会主动推广这个网站，但我们会保留它，并且还会突出一些其他优秀的行动，首先是GPT。
And so we are not going to actively promote the site, but we are going to leave it up, and we're also gonna highlight some other great efforts such as, first off, GPT.
Quit GPT团队认为，历史上最有效的抵制活动都有两个共同点。
The team behind Quit GPT argues that historically, the most effective boycotts have two things in common.
它们目标明确，而且简单易行。
They're narrow and they're easy.
如果你是那种喜欢采取单一行动的人，我们鼓励你取消对OpenAI的ChatGPT订阅。
If you're a one action kind of person, we encourage you to cancel ChatGPT from OpenAI.
ChatGPT是特朗普最大的科技捐赠方，也是ICE的协助者。
ChatGPT is Trump's biggest tech donor and a facilitator of ICE.
无需多言。
Enough said.
此外，还有很好的替代品，免费版本的市盈率高达收入的40倍，仅取消一次付费版ChatGPT订阅，就可能使该公司企业价值减少约1万美元。
Also, there's good substitutes, the free version, trading at a 40 times multiple of revenue, just one cancel, one unsubscribe from the paid version of ChatGPT likely hits this firm's enterprise value of around $10,000.
其次，是影响计算器。
Second, the impact calculator.
它将我们的宏观观点细化为具体细节，展示出我们个人消费决策所造成的估算财务影响。
It takes our high level thesis and drills down into specifics, showing the estimated financial impact of our individual consumer decisions.
如果你想了解你的行动对一家公司的确切影响，值得去探索一下。
If you wanna know the exact impact your action has on a company, it's worth exploring.
就在我们即将结束时，最后一个目标更加个人化：我对我国正在发生的事情感到极度焦虑。
And then just as we wrap up here, the final objective is a more personal one, and that is I have a tremendous amount of anxiety around what I see as happening in our country.
我认为我曾从中受益良多的诸多事物——竞争、法治、公民权利、公民之间的普遍尊重或团结、对移民的尊重——如今正受到直接攻击。
I think many of the things that I have benefited so much from, competition, rule of law, civil rights, a general respect or a camaraderie amongst citizens, a respect for immigrants, I think those things are directly under attack.
当我回溯自己所有成功的原因，发现那些并非我自身努力的结果，而恰恰是如今正遭受攻击的那些东西。
And when I reverse engineer all of my success to the things that aren't my fault, a lot of those things are in fact under attack now.
我厌倦了只在播客里空谈、生气、粗俗、向你们发泄我的愤慨。
And I'm sick of just barking from the cheap seats on podcasts or getting angry or being profane or speaking to you and expressing my indignance.
我在键盘后所采取的行动，必须与我在现实世界中的行为保持一致。
My actions behind a keyboard, if you will, need to foot to my actions in the real world.
而且，我发现行动能缓解焦虑，和他人一起做点事情让我感觉非常好。
And, also, I find that action absorbs anxiety, and it felt really good to do something with other people.
我会继续做这些事。
And I'm gonna continue to do those things.
我们将在九到十天后在明尼阿波利斯举办一场活动，表彰明尼阿波利斯那些勇敢的男女们所做的贡献。
We're gonna have an event in Minneapolis in nine or ten days highlighting the brave work of the good men and women in Minneapolis.
我搬回美国的原因之一，是我想在2026年和2028年发挥自己的作用。
And one of the reasons I'm moving back to The US is I want to play a role in '26 and in '28.
因此，我想请你们所有人做以下几件事。
So what I would ask of all of you is the following.
如果你和我一样，从美国那些美好的特质中受益良多。
If, like me, you have benefited a great deal from some of the wonderful attributes of what is makes our America American.
那些让美国成为美国的特质，那么我想问你，除了在键盘上，你实际做了什么？
Of what makes our America America, then I would ask, what are you actually doing outside of your keyboard?
你有计划帮助人们登记投票吗？
Are you planning to register people to vote?
你有在为候选人筹款吗？
Are you raising money for candidates?
你有没有自己制作标语牌并参加抗议活动？
Are you yourself making signs and going to protests?
你到底在做些什么？
What exactly are you doing?
最后，问问你自己，你是否有欠债？
And ask yourself, finally, do you have a debt?
如果你和我同龄，你是否享受了历史上前所未有的繁荣，缴纳了历史上最低的税率，并且拥有全志愿军队，从未被征召入伍，也从未真正被要求付出？
If you're of my generation, have you enjoyed unprecedented prosperity with the lowest taxes in history and an all volunteer army where you've never been drafted, never really asked to commit?
总而言之，我有欠债，我承认这一点。
In sum, I have a debt, and I recognize that.
我也恳请你们每个人都问问自己：你是否有欠债？
And I would ask all of you to ask yourself, do you have a debt?
你是否站在了过去几代美国人的肩膀上，他们做出了牺牲，才让我们拥有如此非凡的繁荣与自由？
Are you standing on the shoulders of other Americans from past generations that have sacrificed such that we could have such extraordinary prosperity and such extraordinary freedoms?
美国以前也经历过更黑暗的时期——内战、世界大战、民权斗争、瘟疫，但美国人总能挺身应对时代的挑战。
America has faced darker times before, civil wars, world wars, civil rights battles, plagues, but Americans have always equaled to the moment.
这是我们的时刻。
This is our moment.
那么，你有债务吗？你配得上这个时刻吗？
So do you have a debt, and are you equal to this moment?
我们非常感谢您对《抵抗与退订》的支持与参与。
We very much appreciate your support and your participation in Resist and Unsubscribe.
好的。
Okay.
够了。
Enough of that.
继续。
Moving on.
在今天的节目中，我们采访了卡里姆·萨吉普尔，他是卡内基国际和平基金会的高级研究员，专攻伊朗和美国外交政策。
In today's episode, we speak with Kareem Sajipur, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace specializing in Iran and US foreign policy.
我们与卡里姆讨论了当前美伊紧张局势的现状、空袭的可能性，以及达成一项成功的核协议实际上需要什么。
We discussed with Kareem the current state of play regarding US Iran tensions, odds of strikes, and what a successful nuclear deal would actually require.
顺便提一下，这次对话是在2月23日星期一录制的。
And just to note, this conversation is being recorded on Monday, February 23.
如果新闻有变动，请多多包涵。
So if headlines change, you know, forgive us.
那么，接下来是我们与卡里姆·萨吉普的对话。
So with that, here's our conversation with Kareem Sajipur.
卡里姆，这个播客现在在哪儿找到你？
Kareem, where does this podcast find you?
我在大雪纷飞的华盛顿特区，斯科特。
I'm in snowy Washington DC, Scott.
哦，雪灾来了。
Oh, Snowmageddon.
情况有那么严重吗？这是炸弹气旋吗？
Is is it as bad as ever is this a bomb cyclone?
和大家之前预测的一样糟糕吗？
Is it as bad as everyone was predicting?
还没纽约市那么严重。
It's not as bad as New York City.
我认为华盛顿特区最糟糕的时期可能已经过去了。
I think the worst is probably behind us in DC.
我们直接切入正题吧。
Let's bust right into it.
我无法想象，你一定是现在有线新闻频道里最受欢迎的人了。
I can't imagine you you you must be the most requested person in in cable news right now.
我们正处在伊朗与美国紧张局势升级的阶段，唐纳德·特朗普正在伊朗海岸附近集结美军，准备对政权采取可能的军事行动。
We're in the midst of escalating tensions between Iran and The US as Donald Trump builds up US forces off Iran's coast for possible military action against the regime.
从你的视角，给我们讲讲目前的局势如何。
Give us from your vantage the state of play right now.
所以我认为，斯科特，我们现在正处在两个人之间的胆小鬼游戏之中。
So I think, Scott, this is we're in a game of chicken right now between two individuals.
这两个人就是总统特朗普和伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊。
That's President Trump and Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei.
我认为特朗普总统以为他可以重现似乎在委内瑞拉奏效的策略，即对委内瑞拉施加巨大的经济和军事压力，作为推翻该政权并迫使其投降或妥协的前奏。
I think President Trump thought he could essentially recreate the strategy that seemingly worked in Venezuela, which is to subject Venezuela to enormous economic and military pressure as a prelude to decapitating that regime and forcing about its its capitulation or compromise.
而在伊朗的情况下，这是美国自2003年入侵伊拉克以来在中东地区最大规模的军事集结。
And in the case of Iran, this is the largest military buildup in The Middle East that The United States has had since the two thousand three invasion of Iraq.
伊朗显然正承受着巨大的经济压力，而特朗普的高级顾问们实际上对伊朗为何尚未妥协感到困惑。
Iran is obviously under enormous economic pressure, and Trump's top advisers have actually expressed confusion as to, you know, why Iran hasn't yet compromised.
我认为这与伊朗86岁独裁者哈梅内伊的意志密切相关，他过去几十年来唯一的核心理念就是对抗美国。
And I think that has to do a lot with the the will of Iran's 86 year old dictator, Ayatollah Khamenei, whose one big idea over the last few decades has been resistance against America.
这很有趣。
So it's interesting.
你称之为一场胆小鬼游戏，任何听你讲话的人都会暂缓判断，但我会将其描述为既成事实——我认为特朗普并不希望他们退让或达成核协议。
You call it a game of chicken, and anyone who's listening to to defer your judgment, but I would have described it as a fait accompli that effectively I don't think Trump wants them to back down or come to a nuclear deal.
他喜欢委内瑞拉军事行动所展现的强硬与阳刚光环。
I think he likes the flex and the macho sheen of that military operation in Venezuela.
我的感觉是，我们即将在那里展开军事行动。
And my sense is it's a go that that we are going to engage in a military operation there.
但你觉得这是下棋，还有达成协议的机会吗？
But you think that this is chess and that there's opportunity for a deal?
所以我认为，在特朗普总统内心，他更希望这件事能通过和平革命解决。
So I think in president Trump's heart, he would prefer to have a peaceful revolution to this matter.
如果他能在不发动战争的情况下，从伊朗获得重大让步，我认为这对他是更理想的选择。
If he can get a deal from Iran, major concessions from Iran without having to go to war, I think that's a preferable option for him.
而且，你知道，每一场冲突，尤其是这种性质的冲突，都可能带来巨大的风险。
And, you know, every conflict, especially one of this nature, entails potentially enormous risks.
对吧？
Right?
伊朗比委内瑞拉更强大。
Iran is a more powerful country than Venezuela.
它拥有数千枚短程导弹，并威胁要对波斯湾的美军基地发动攻击。
It has thousands of short range missile missiles, which it's threatened to use against US bases in the Persian Gulf.
它还威胁要打击石油设施，以推高油价。
It's threatened to go after oil installations to spike the price of oil.
甚至，你知道的，靠近伊朗革命卫队的个人也威胁要摧毁迪拜这样的地方。
Even, you know, individuals adjacent to Iran's revolutionary guards have threatened to destroy places like Dubai.
所以，这对特朗普总统来说并不是一个完全没有风险的举措。
So this isn't a totally risk free proposition for president Trump.
我认为，如果他能在不发射一枪的情况下达成协议，那将是更理想的结果。
And I think if he could get a deal without having to fire a single shop, that would be the preferable outcome.
现在，我同意你的看法，在我看来，目前达成协议的可能性似乎并不高。
Now I I agree with you that in my view, the likelihood of a deal at this moment appears not very high.
因此，我认为美国采取军事行动的可能性要高得多。
And for that reason, I think the likelihood that The United States takes military action is is much higher.
那我们来思考一下这个问题。
So let's think about this.
感觉有大量军事装备正被运往或送往该地区，让我印象深刻的是，我们即将在空中建立一个持续的加油站，他们正在部署基础设施和资源，以对伊朗展开持久的军事行动。
It feels like the amount of military hardware that's been floating towards or shipping towards the region, transport of the region, the thing that struck me was just the number of refueling planes that we basically gonna have this constant gas station in the sky that they are looking at putting in place the infrastructure and resources to have a sustained campaign against Iran.
如果我们达成协议，你的看法是什么？
If we come to a deal, what is your view?
有没有一个好协议，能让伊斯兰共和国继续执政？
Is there is there a good deal that leaves the Islamic Republic in power?
因为我的感觉是，只要这个政权还在掌权，中东就不可能稳定。
Because my sense is that as long as this regime is in power, there's gonna be instability in The Middle East.
这个政权一直相当压迫，但我在这里看到了一些积极面，尽管这听起来很天真。
There's going to be a regime that has been pretty oppressive, and that I see an upside here, and this is Pollyanna.
我上过加州大学洛杉矶分校。
I went to UCLA.
说我的一些最好的朋友来自伊朗，这听起来很老套，但我一直觉得，我在美国遇到的伊朗人，比美国人更像美国人。
It sounds cliche to say that some of my best friends from Iran, and I've always thought Iranians that I met in The United States felt more American to me than Americans.
他们热爱教育，热爱商业和资本主义。
A love of education, a love of commerce and capitalism.
老天，我只是觉得伊朗人身上一定有种DNA，或者我对伊朗的印象是：崇尚科学、拥有顶尖大学、拥有辉煌的历史和文化。
Fam, I just I thought there's gotta be a DNA or my sense of Iran, an appreciation for science, great universities, incredible history, culture.
听我说。
Listen.
伊朗可以成为美国一个绝佳的盟友。
Iran could be a fantastic American ally.
我有一个愿景，那就是通过某种新的伊朗政权，使其成为美国的有力盟友，从而减少混乱和对恐怖主义的资金支持。
And I have this vision where we unlock through some sort of new regime in Iran that ends up being a great ally for The United States, and there's just less chaos and less funding of terrorism.
任何维持伊斯兰共和国现状的协议，从中期和长期来看，对美国都是不利的。
And then anything that leaves the Islamic Republic in place is over the medium and the long term a bad deal for The US.
请谈谈你的看法：是否存在一种未来，我们保留伊斯兰共和国，却仍能获得更好的选择？
Give me your thoughts on whether or not there is an a future where we leave the Islamic Republic in power that is a better alternative.
斯科特，我完全同意，这是一个邪恶的政权，几乎没有任何可取之处。
Scott, I wholeheartedly agree that this is a malicious regime with virtually no redeeming qualities.
我经常说，世界上没有哪个国家的政府与人民之间的愿望差距，比伊朗更大。
I've often said there's no country in the world with a greater gap between the aspirations of its government and the aspirations of its people than Iran.
对吧？
Right?
你有一个行为像朝鲜的政府，而社会却渴望成为韩国。
You have a government that behaves like North Korea society, which wants to be like South Korea.
而且，我认为，这种差距是不可持续的，尤其是在伊朗上个月对其本国人民所做的事情之后——根据一些估算，伊朗在短短48小时内就造成了多达三万人死亡。
And, you know, this gap, in my view, is not sustainable, and it's also irreconcilable after what Iran did to its own people last month, which is, according to some estimates, it it killed as many as 30,000 people in the course of forty eight hours.
所以，我完全同意你的观点。
So I I totally agree with you there.
我也同意，如今美伊关系是一种非常不自然的状态。
And I also agree with you that the state of US Iran relations today is a very unnatural state.
我经常引用亨利·基辛格的话：世界上几乎没有哪个国家，与美国拥有如此多的共同利益却如此少的争执理由，就像伊朗一样。
I always quote Henry Kissinger, who said, there are few nations in the world with whom The United States has more common interests and less reason to quarrel than Iran.
但自1979年革命以来，我们看到的是，伊朗并没有像一个遵循本国人民国家利益和经济利益的主权国家那样行事。
But what we've seen since the nineteen seventy nine revolution is that Iran hasn't behaved like a nation state following the national interests and economic interests of its people.
它一直扮演着一种革命性事业的角色。
It's behaved as a revolutionary cause.
在我看来，这种状态是不可持续的。
And in my view, that is not sustainable.
问题是，美国是否能凭借军事力量彻底改变这一现实。
The question is whether The United States has the ability with military force to totally change that reality.
你知道，过去二十年美国在中东的历史，并不能给人太多信心。
And, you know, the last two decades of American history in The Middle East doesn't lend an enormous amount of confidence.
我们在阿富汗和伊拉克投入了大量的人力和财力，却没能实现我们想要的结果。
We invested a great deal of blood and treasure in Afghanistan and Iraq, and we weren't able to dictate the outcomes that we wanted.
所以我认为，最终，伊朗的未来将由它的人民决定，斯科特。
So I believe ultimately, Scott, Iran's future is going to be decided by its people.
我应该说明，这完全基于我所观察到的零星事例。
Now I should say that this is based purely on what I observe anecdotally.
我认为目前没有关于这个问题的科学民调，但在我看来，伊朗国内反对政权的人占绝大多数，我估计大约有80%甚至更多的人口，都希望得到外部援助。
I don't think there's any scientific polling on this, but seems to me an overwhelming majority of people inside Iran who oppose the regime, and I would say it's probably around 80%, if not more, of society, would like to see outside help.
他们实际上希望特朗普总统兑现他的承诺。
They actually would like to see president Trump make make good on his promise.
特朗普总统曾八次以上承诺，如果伊朗镇压抗议者，美国将进行干预，并获得伊朗人民的支持。
President Trump promised on more than eight occasions that if Iran kills protesters that The United States would intervene, it would have the backing that America would have Iran Iran's back the backing of Iranian people.
这改变了人们走上街头时的风险评估，因为他们以为美国会支持我们，但这种支持从未到来。
And that changed people's risk calculations when they took to the streets because they thought, you know, The United States is going to support us, and that support hasn't come.
我认为这就是为什么伊朗人民 overwhelmingly 希望看到这种支持。
And I think that's why overwhelmingly people in Iran want to see that support.
但你知道，Scott，我一直谨记的一点是，你提到了你在加州大学系统的日子。
But, you know, one thing I'm always mindful of, Scott, you mentioned, you know, your days in the UC system.
我是密歇根大学的人。
I'm a University of Michigan guy.
每年三月疯狂期间，我都会填两份预测表，一份预测密歇根大学夺冠，另一份预测我認為可能发生的实际情况。
And every year during March Madness, I fill out two brackets, one with Michigan winning it all, and one with what I think might see happen.
在这里，我们必须警惕，不要把我们的希望、情感和分析混为一谈——每个人都希望看到一个能一举推翻这个政权、扶持伊朗民主并让伊朗重新成为美国朋友的神奇解决方案，这本应是理所当然的。
And here it's, you know, we have to be mindful not to conflate our hopes and emotions and analysis that I think everyone would love to see would love to see a magic bullet that just eliminates this regime and empowers an Iranian democracy, which once again becomes friends with The United States as it should be.
历史上几乎没有多少干净利落、成功的类似案例。
There's not a lot of great examples from history that there's such a clean operation that exists.
这很公平。
That's fair.
我们在中东问题上有着漫长而糟糕的历史，坦率地说，我们总是搞砸。
We have a long and storied history of just of just, quite frankly, of just fucking up in the when it comes to the Middle East.
你认为伊斯兰共和国能否在持续的军事打击下幸存下来？
Do you think that the Islamic Republic could survive a sustained military attack?
我的意思是，说说迈克·泰森会怎么说，这很容易规划。
I mean, it's easy to plan as what would Mike Tyson say.
每个人都有自己的策略，直到你挨了一拳。
Everyone has a strategy until you get punched in the face.
我想，而且我很想知道你的看法，我们是否正与以色列人和摩萨德协调，进行一系列有针对性的暗杀行动，就像他们在摧毁防空系统之前所做的那样。
You know, I would imagine, and I'm curious what you think, that we're coordinating with Israelis, with Mossad to have a series of targeted assassinations similar to what happened before they took out the air defenses.
但我支持军事行动的一个原因是，我觉得现在是一个独特的历史时刻，伊朗或伊斯兰共和国正处于劣势。
But one of the reasons I'm a fan of military action is I feel this is a unique moment in time where, where Iran or the Islamic Republic is on its heels.
它的防空系统已经被摧毁。
Its air defenses have been taken out.
它的代理人——让我感到震惊的是，这个政权有多么破坏性和危险性：如今它处于劣势，而俄罗斯又在乌克兰分身乏术，我觉得整个地区反而变得相当平静。
Its proxies I mean, one of the things that strikes me is just how damaging and dangerous this regime is is that now that it's on its heels and Russia's distracted in Ukraine, it feels to me like it's been fairly peaceful in the region.
苏伊士运河并没有发生大量袭击事件。
The Suez Canal has the Suez Canal has not had a bunch of attacks.
真主党没有向以色列发射导弹。
Hezbollah is not firing missiles into Israel.
对吧？
Right?
感觉好像就是这样，好吧。
There's it it feels like, okay.
我觉得为什么会这样呢？
I think why is that?
本质上，伊斯兰共和国已经被切断了双手。
It basically, the Islamic Republic has had its hands cut off.
它的防空系统已经失效。
Its air defenses are down.
我觉得现在是一个独特的时机，可以采取行动，我们就像站在五码或十码线上。
It feels like this is a unique moment in time to go in and kind of we're at the five or the 10 yard line.
我认为伊朗人民已经展现了非凡的牺牲精神。
I think the Iranian people have shown extraordinary sacrifice and committed here.
我们会推进到十码线，给他们机会稳定、生存、重新武装，然后寄希望于他们更好的一面能显现出来。
And we're gonna get to the 10 yard line and to give them a chance to stabilize, survive, rearm, and we're gonna hope for their better angels to show up.
这感觉起来风险是值得承担的。
It just feels like it's worth the risk.
所以风险是。
So the risk.
我们介入。
We go in.
我们会不会和以色列在这事上协调？你相信吗？
We we start would a, do you believe we're coordinating with Israel on this?
第二，你认为伊斯兰共和国能否在美军的军事行动下生存并坚持下去？
And two, you think the Islamic Republic could, in fact, survive military action, sustain military action from The US.
我想问题是，某一天我们是否必须派地面部队？
I guess the question is, at some point, do we have to put boots on the ground?
而且他们可能会向其他西方关联实体或盟友发射导弹。
And what is potentially so and they fire missiles at other Western affiliated entities or allies.
在我看来，这里的不对称性明显偏向有利的一方。
It feels to me like the asymmetry is way to the upside here.
但再说一遍，我太天真了，每次我们做出这种判断时，都低估了这里潜在的负面后果。
But, again, I'm naive, and I wanna acknowledge every time we've made that calculation, we have underestimated, the potential downsides here.
但如果你主张让伊斯兰共和国继续存在，你认为真正的负面后果会是什么？给我一个具体的场景。
But what what do you see as the real give me a scenario of the real downside here if you're arguing for letting the Islamic Republic stay in place.
嗯，我恰好同意你的直觉，斯科特，伊朗可能比以往任何时候都更虚弱。
Well, I I happen to agree with your instincts, Scott, that Iran is perhaps weaker than it's ever been.
它本质上是一个处于内外夹击之中的政府。
It's it's essentially a government which is in between two fires, an internal fire and an external fire.
它可能是世界上最为孤立的国家之一。
It's probably one of the loneliest countries in the world.
它几乎没有盟友。
It has very, very few allies.
如果你试着揣摩特朗普总统的想法，并回顾他十年来对伊朗的行事历史，你会发现，他曾三次冒险下注。
And, you know, if we try to get inside the head of president Trump and you look at his ten year history with Iran, well, on three major occasions, he's rolled the dice.
2018年，他退出了奥巴马与伊朗达成的核协议。
In 2018, he left Obama's nuclear deal with Iran.
2020年，他暗杀了伊朗最高军事指挥官卡西姆·苏莱曼尼。
In 2020, he assassinated Iran's top military commander, Qasem Soleimani.
去年夏天，发生了‘午夜锤’行动。
And then last summer was Operation Midnight Hammer.
他向伊朗投下了14枚钻地炸弹。
He dropped 14 bunker busters on Iran.
在这些决定中的每一个，人们都预测这将引发第三次世界大战，或至少是一场大规模地区战争。
Now on every single one of those decisions, people predicted that it would would trigger World War three or or, at the minimum, a major regional war.
但这些情况都没有发生，我认为特朗普总统每次都觉得自己的判断得到了证实。
That didn't happen in any of those occasions, and I think president Trump feels that he was vindicated each time.
而现在，当伊朗甚至无法控制自己的领空，你提到的其地区代理力量也已被摧毁，我认为他坚信，如果再次冒险，伊朗不过是一只纸老虎。
And now when Iran doesn't even control its own airspace, you alluded to, their regional proxies have been decimated, I think he feels very confident that if he rolls the dice again, Iran is a paper tiger.
归根结底，这是一个以维持政权为最高目标的政权。
And it it ultimately it's a regime whose paramount goal is to to stay in power.
他们凶残，但不会自取灭亡。
They're homicidal, but they're not suicidal.
因此，出于这个原因，他们不太可能以大规模方式对美国做出回应，因为他们知道，如果向美国或我们的盟友发射大量导弹，可能会引发美国的猛烈反击。
And so for that reason, their willingness and an ability to respond in a major way against The United States is is not likely to to happen because they know if they were to unleash massive amounts of missile fire against America in the region or against our allies that it could trigger a massive US response.
而且，斯科特，我同意你所说的，美国百分之百会与以色列协调行动。
And and I agree with what you said, Scott, that 100% The United States is gonna be coordinating this with Israel.
但我同时也同意你提到的那句话。
But I I also agree with the the quote you mentioned.
你知道吗？
You know?
劳伦斯·弗里德曼撰写了关于战略的权威著作，这本书约700页，开篇就是迈克·泰森的那句话：每个人都有计划，直到被打得嘴啃泥。
Lawrence Friedman wrote the definitive book on strategy, and that book, which is about 700 pages, starts with that sentence from Mike Tyson that everyone has a plan until you get punched in the mouth.
我们不知道伊朗这次会对潜在的美国袭击做出何种反应。
And we don't know how Iran is going to respond this time to a potential US attack.
也许他们会保持克制，像刺猬一样缩起来，因为他们最想要的是维持政权。
It may be that they exercise restraint and they're gonna hunker down like a hedgehog because they want to stay in power.
或者，他们从以往的冲突中学到的教训是：没有进行有意义的报复，反而显得软弱，也没有让美国付出代价，现在是时候对这个美国霸凌者站出来反抗了。
Or it may be that their lesson from the previous conflicts was that by not really retaliating in a meaningful way, they projected weakness, and they didn't exact any cause from The United States, and it's now a moment to to stand up to to this American bully.
我们并不确定。
We don't know that.
因此，我想强调，这存在风险。
And so I want to emphasize that it is a risk.
如果你是特朗普总统，你或许对自己的胜算感到乐观，因为过去美国的军事力量曾取得过胜利，而且美国离伊朗有数千英里之遥。
And if you're president Trump, you perhaps like your odds because American military power has prevailed in the past, and United States is several thousand miles away from Iran.
但如果你身处离伊朗不远的阿联酋或沙特阿拉伯，你对伊朗的能力以及美国是否会维持强大的军事存在来保护你，会感到更加犹豫不决。
But if you're sitting not that far from Iran in The United Arab Arab Emirates or Saudi Arabia, you have much greater ambivalence about what Iran is capable of doing and whether The United States will maintain that massive military presence to to protect against them.
我们稍后马上回来。
We'll be right back after a quick break.
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拼写是nutrafol.com，促销码是PROF G。
That's spelled nutrafol.com, promo code PROF G.
就是nutrafol.com，促销码是PROF G。
That's nutrafol.com, promo code PROF G.
本节目由Fora赞助。
Support for the show comes from Fora.
如果你喜欢在群聊中规划旅行，忍不住比较酒店、精心拼凑完美行程，那你已经具备了旅行顾问的思维。
If you're the kind of person who loves to plan a trip in a group chat and can't help but compare hotels and piece together the perfect itinerary, then you already think like a travel adviser.
好消息是，通过Fora，你可以将这份热情转化为收入。
And the good news is with Fora, you can turn that passion into income.
Fora 是一家为热爱规划旅行并乐于帮助他人旅行的人打造的现代旅行社。
Fora is a modern travel agency built for people who love to plan travel and help others travel as well.
作为 Fora 的顾问，你将获得顶尖的培训、强大的预订技术，以及一个充满活力的全球专家和同行顾问社区，他们分享真实的内部信息，帮助你启动并发展自己的旅行业务。
As a Fora advisor, you get best in class training, powerful booking tech, and a vibrant global community of experts and fellow advisors who share real insider knowledge to help you launch and grow your own travel business.
没错。
That's right.
通过 Fora，你可以将对旅行的热爱转化为一项真正的事业。
With Fora, you can turn your passion for travel into a real business.
作为 Fora 顾问，你每预订一家酒店、一艘邮轮或一项活动，都能获得预订费用的一定比例作为佣金，而你可以从为已经认识的人预订旅行开始，而这本来就是你会做的事。
Every hotel, cruise, or activity you book as a Fora adviser earns you a percentage of the booking cost as a commission, and you can get started by booking trips for people you already know, which knowing you is what you'd be doing already.
立即前往 foratravel.com/propg 成为 Fora 顾问。
Become a Fora advisor today at foratravel.com/propg.
网址是 foratravel.com/propg。
That's foratravel.com/propg.
别忘了告诉他们是我们介绍的。
And make sure you tell them we sent you.
foratravel.com/propg
Foratravel.com/propg.
嘿。
Hey.
我是卡拉·斯威舍。
Kara Swisher here.
我想通知大家，Vox Media 将重返德克萨斯州奥斯汀的西南偏南大会，进行您喜爱播客的现场录制。
I wanna let you know that Vox Media is returning to South by Southwest in Austin for live tapings of your favorite podcast.
请在3月13日至15日期间前来，参与《今日解析》《Tuffy Talks》《Prof G 市场》以及您最喜爱的两档播客《Pivot》和《On with Kara Swisher》的现场录制。
Join us from March 13 through the fifteenth for live tapings of Today Explained, Tuffy Talks, Prof G Markets, and of course, your two favorite podcasts, Pivot and On with Kara Swisher.
舞台还将呈现来自蕾妮·布朗、亚当·格兰特、马奎斯·布朗利、基思·李、维维安·图和罗宾·阿尔赞的专场活动。
The stage will also feature sessions from Renee Brown and Adam Grant, Marques Brownlee, Keith Lee, Vivian Tu, and Robin Arzan.
这一切都是由Odoo赞助的Vox Media播客舞台在西南偏南大会上的精彩内容。
It's all part of the Vox Media podcast stage at South by Southwest presented by Odoo.
请访问 voxmedia.com/sxsw 预注册，并获取您的创新通行证专属折扣。
Visit voxmedia.com/sxsw to preregister and get your special discount on your innovation badge.
注册请访问 voxmedia.com/sxsw。
That's voxmedia.com/sxsw to register.
真的，你该去注册一下。
Really, you should register.
我们场场爆满，期待在那里见到你。
We sell out, and we hope to see you there.
那我们来谈谈这个吧，因为我的理解是，以色列和约旦都坚定地站在盟友阵营，会提供基础设施支持。
So let's talk about that because it feels like my understanding is Israel and Jordan are firmly in the ally camp who will who will provide infrastructure support.
奇怪的是，我们过去依赖的盟友，包括英国，基本上都说：我们不会为你提供基础设施支持，也不会让你使用迪戈加西亚的着陆权，这非常不寻常。反而可能有一些海湾国家更支持美国的军事行动，还有一些七国集团国家，我觉得这反映了美国荒谬至极的地缘政治策略——不过这是另一个谈话节目了。
And what's strange is the allies we used to rely on, including The UK, have basically said, we're not gonna provide you with infrastructure support, landing rights to Diego Garcia, which is really unusual, that we might have some Gulf nations who are more supportive of The US's military actions and some g seven, which I think speaks to just crazy head up your ass geopolitical strategy of The US, but different talk show.
给我梳理一下这个地区的情况。
Run us through the region.
在你看来，中东各方对总统说了些什么？
In your mind, what do you think the various players in The Middle East are saying to the president?
他们支持这个策略吗？还是在试图协调并提供帮助？
Do they endorse the strategy, or are they are they trying to coordinate and help?
他们是束手无策，只是说他会这么做，但希望获得某种安全保证，还是在试图劝阻他？
Are they bereft and just saying he's gonna do this, but we want some sort of security guarantees, or are they trying to talk him out of it?
我们来逐个分析主要玩家，看看你认为他们对可能针对伊朗的打击持什么态度。
Go go across the biggest players and what you think their view is on a potential strike on Iran.
我们可以从以色列开始说，以色列一方面公开支持这次打击，私下里也在鼓励总统，而且很可能参与任何针对伊朗的美国行动。
Well, we can start with Israel by saying that Israel is both, you know, publicly supportive of a strike, they're privately encouraging the president, and and they will very likely be part of any US operation against Iran.
然后，如果我们转向波斯湾的合作伙伴，比如阿联酋、沙特阿拉伯、卡塔尔。
And then if we move to our partners in the Persian Gulf, countries like The United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Qatar.
正如我所说，他们的态度要复杂得多。
As I said, there there's much more profound ambivalence.
公开上，他们会反对美国的打击行动，并明确表示不会允许美国使用其领空攻击伊朗，因为他们不想成为任何行动的共犯，他们害怕伊朗伊斯兰共和国。
Publicly, they're going to oppose a US strike, and they publicly said they're not going to allow The United States to use their airspace to attack Iran because they don't want to be complicit in any operation because they fear the Islamic Republic Of Iran.
伊朗过去曾袭击过这些国家。
Iran has attacked them in the past.
他们还利用地区代理势力，比如也门的胡塞武装，这些势力仍然是对这些国家构成威胁的隐患。
They've used their regional proxies like the Houthis in Yemen who are still, you know, still a menace to to attack those countries.
我从这段经历中学到的一个教训是，斯科特，二十多年前我曾在贝鲁特进行富布赖特研究，那一年的最大感悟是：建设东西需要几十年，甚至几个世纪，而摧毁它却只需几周。
And one of the lessons I learned, Scott, I did a Fulbright in Beirut about over twenty years ago, and my big takeaway from that year is that it takes decades, if not centuries, to build things, and it takes weeks to destroy them.
这些国家，尤其是阿联酋，我由衷地敬佩。
And those countries, I take my hat off to them, in particular, The United Arab Emirates.
我常跟人说，1979年的时候，伊朗和阿联酋就像在同一部电梯里。
You know, I tell people in 1979, Iran and The United Arab Emirates went to the same elevator.
伊朗按了向下键，而阿联酋按了向上键。
And Iran pushed down, and The United Arab Emirates pushed up.
这两个国家之间的差距实在巨大。
And the gap between these two countries is really enormous.
当你想到伊朗的面积是阿联酋的二十多倍时。
When you think about Iran is more than 20 times the size of UAE.
伊朗拥有人力资源、自然资源和历史底蕴，本应成为二十国集团级别的强国。
Iran has the human resources, the natural resources, the history to be a G 20 power.
但它却什么都不是。
But it's none of those things.
它是一个全球性的孤岛。
It's a global pariah.
而阿联酋在五十年前还只是一个偏远落后的地方，如今却已成为全球交通、科技和地缘政治的枢纽。
And The United Arab Emirates, which was really a backwater five decades ago, has emerged as this global hub for transport, for for technology, for for geopolitics.
它们在这里有很多东西需要保护，因为它们知道伊朗可能在一周内就发动导弹、火箭和无人机袭击，摧毁它们花费数十年才建成的一切。
And they have a lot to lose here because they know that Iran could come by in a week or so unleashing its missiles, rockets, and drones, and destroying what has taken them many decades to build.
因此，海湾地区的这些国家都不会公开支持美国对伊朗的军事行动。
And for that reason, none of those countries are going in the in The Gulf are going to publicly support US military action against Iran.
我认为，私下里它们给出的建议可能略有不同。
I think privately, the advice they give is is probably a little different.
但我想强调的是，它们都担心所谓的‘打了就跑’式袭击。
But one of the things I would argue that they are all worried about is what they call a hit and run attack.
它们担心特朗普总统可能会攻击伊朗，但一周或两周后，他的注意力又转向了委内瑞拉、台湾或其他问题，而它们则暴露无遗、毫无防备，而且它们无法像其他国家那样远离伊朗数千英里。
They're worried that president Trump could could attack Iran, and then a week or two later, his attentions are diverted back to whether it's Venezuela or Taiwan or another issue, and they're left naked and vulnerable, and they don't have the luxury of being many thousands of miles away from Iran.
你之前提到过，人们可以在网上看到如今中东地区美国军事力量的惊人部署图。
Now you you mentioned earlier, and people can look online at this map of this incredible American buildup right now in The Middle East.
如果你与五角大楼的人交谈，他们会告诉你，大部分兵力部署都是出于防御目的。
If you talk to people at the Pentagon, they will tell you that most of that buildup is for defensive purposes.
我们并不是要对伊朗动用所有这些火力。
It's not that we're gonna unleash all of that firepower against Iran.
这种兵力部署在很大程度上是为了保护我们的盟友和基地，以防伊朗的报复。
That buildup is there in great part to protect our allies, protect our bases against an Iranian retaliation.
但现实是，这些部队不可能永远留在中东，也没有任何保证美国的军事行动能推翻伊朗政权。
But the reality is that those forces aren't going to be able to remain in the Middle East forever, and there's no guarantee that any US military action will topple the regime in Iran.
因此，我认为特朗普总统和绝大多数伊朗人都愿意承担这种风险。
And so that is a risk that I think President Trump and and vast majority of Iranians are prepared to live with.
他们愿意在这种方式上赌一把。
They're prepared to roll the dice in that way.
这些海湾国家损失的东西要多得多。
Those Gulf countries have a lot more to lose.
孙武说过什么来着？除非你想屠杀所有人，否则总要给敌人留一条退路。
What was it Sun Tzu said, unless you wanna slaughter everybody, you always wanna give your enemy an out.
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你有没有听说过，或者目前是否存在这样一种情况：我们对伊朗伊斯兰共和国的领导人说，你们已经杀害了数万人，但现在请立即下台。
And have you heard of or what's the state of is there a situation where we say to the leaders of the Islamic Republic, you've murdered tens of thousands of people, but get out now.
坐飞机去俄罗斯，就像我们在卢旺达所做或他们所做的一样。
Get on a plane to Russia similar to what we did or what they did in Rwanda.
他们称那场大屠杀为种族灭绝，并给了它一个名字。
They said the genocide they had a name from the genocide.
我们会赦免你，或者给你一个出路。
We're gonna exonerate you or come up.
换句话说，给他们一些激励，让他们不要拼死抵抗，不至于最后绝望地向迪拜发射无人机。
In other words, give them incentives so they don't fight to the death and start launching drones against Dubai and just, you know, last gasps of desperation.
首先，你认为这有可能吗？
A, do you think that's a possibility?
是否存在这样一种情境：我们对领导层，甚至包括他们下面一级的人说，好吧。
Is there a scenario where we say to the leadership, and I would think the the one level down, alright.
这是给你们的一个潜在退出方案，以免你们像一只被逼到角落的野兽那样，令人恐惧。
Here's a potential exit plan for you, such that we don't you know, a cornered animal is is frightening.
对吧？
Right?
你怎么看？
Thoughts?
我这么说吧，波斯语里有个说法正好印证了这一点：如果一只野猫被困在房间里，你得留一扇门开着，好让它自己出去。
I mean, there's a Persian expression that that corroborates that, which is if you have a wild cat trapped in a room, you need to leave a door open to to allow it to go out.
而且，我真的认为特朗普总统和他的核心顾问们，如果能按个按钮，他们也希望看到一个外交解决方案。
And, again, I actually do think that president Trump and his top advisers on this issue, if they could push a button, they would like to see a diplomatic outcome.
他们不希望我们陷入战争。
They would like us not to have to go to war.
目前的挑战在于，我看不出美国的要求和伊朗的让步之间有任何交集。
The challenge at the moment is I don't see a Venn diagram in which American demands and Iranian concessions currently intersect.
因为我们向伊朗提出的要求——不谈太技术性的问题——是要求他们不再 enrich 任何铀，而这是伊朗坚决坚持的。
Because what we're demanding from Iran, not to get too technical, but we want we're demanding that they don't enrich any uranium, something that they insist on.
同时，我们还要求他们大幅削减导弹项目。
And we're also demanding that they significantly curtail their missile program.
他们必须停止对真主党、胡塞武装等破坏性地区代理势力的支持，并改善对本国人民的待遇。
They cease their support for these destructive regional proxies like Hezbollah and the Houthis, and that they treat their population better.
伊朗方面表示，我们只愿意与你们讨论核问题。
What the Iranians have said is we will only speak to you about our nuclear program.
其他所有事项都不在谈判桌上，我们坚决拒绝接受零浓缩的要求。
None of those other things are on the table, and we refuse outright to agree to zero enrichment.
因此，目前我们提出的要求与他们愿意提供的条件之间没有任何交集。
So at the moment, there is no overlap in what we're demanding and what they're prepared to offer.
而且，我再次回到哈梅内伊这个人身上。
And again, I go back to the person of Ayatollah Khamenei.
他86岁了。
86 years old.
在过去的几十年里，他唯一的核心理念就是抵抗。
His only big idea over the last decades has been resistance.
他长期以来一直认为，如果因为压力而屈服或妥协，这并不会真正延长你的生存时间。
He's long believed that if you capitulate or you compromise as a result of pressure, that's not going to ultimately prolong your shelf life.
这会向你的对手传递并展现软弱，他们会趁机进一步推进。
That's going to convey and project weakness to your adversary, and they're going to take a step forward.
因此，我认为以他这个年纪，目前他更愿意以殉道者的方式死去，而不是以妥协者的身份死去。
And so I think at his age, at the moment, he seems prepared to die a martyr more than he is to die a capitulator.
我们面临的另一个挑战是，与伊朗革命前的巴列维政府不同，当时的伊朗政府和军方精英大多在美国或欧洲接受过教育，会说外语，可能拥有外国护照，可以在洛杉矶和伦敦重新开始生活。
The other challenge we have, Scott, is that in contrast to the government that existed in Iran before the revolution, the Shah's government, in which most of the governments and militaries elite had studied in America or Europe and spoke foreign languages and potentially had foreign passports and can remake their lives in Los Angeles and London.
正如我所说，这些人可能是世界上最为孤立、最无盟友的政权之一，他们几乎没有可以寻求备选方案的地方。
These guys, as I said, they're probably one of the most isolated, friendless regimes in the world, and there's not a lot of places they can go to for plan B.
因此，出于这个原因，我们看到他们在内部采取的措施是，宁愿杀死数以万计的本国人民，也不愿交出权力。
And so for that reason, what we've seen from them internally is they're prepared to kill tens of thousands of their own people rather than seed power.
而对于外部对手，最高领袖的心态是：如果我们向这种压力屈服，这并不能拯救我们。
And vis a vis external adversaries, the mindset of the supreme leader is that if we give in to this pressure, it's not going to save us.
这只会招致更多的压力。
It's going to invite even more pressure.
我的意思是，没人想谈论地面部队的部署。
I mean, no one wants to talk about boots on the ground.
你觉得现在军事打击仅仅意味着，据我理解，从空中实施政权更迭非常困难。
Do you think that right now, a military strike just involves my understanding is it's very hard to execute a regime change from the air.
必须出动他们的特种部队。
There has to be their special ops.
而且，我认为伊斯兰共和国的优势在于，他们可能早就预料到这一点。
And, also, I think the Islamic Republic has the benefit of believing this is probably coming.
你觉得，至少预测市场显示，三月之前有大约60%到三分之二的可能性会发生某种军事行动，这感觉会是什么样？
Do you think what do you think it feels like, at least the prediction markets are saying, before the March, there's about a 60% or two thirds likelihood that there's gonna be some sort of military action.
但坦白说，从空中轰炸——他们的防空系统大多已被摧毁——和派遣地面部队是完全不同的。
But there's a difference between, quite frankly, bombing from the air, where their air defenses have been mostly wiped out, and putting boots on the ground.
许多军事专业人士会说，你可以在空中制造混乱，但无法仅靠空中行动促成变革。
And a lot of military, professionals will say, you can wreak havoc, but you can't foment change from the air.
你觉得实施地面部队战略的可能性有多大？
What do you think are the chances of some sort of boots on the ground strategy?
我认为派遣地面部队的可能性非常小。
I think the likelihood of boots on the ground is very slim.
我看民主党内部对此没有任何支持，共和党内部我也真没看到有这种支持。
I don't see any support within the Democratic party for that, nor do I really see it among Republicans.
我觉得就连副总统万斯这样的人也会强烈反对。
I think even people like vice president Vance would probably profoundly oppose that.
我觉得MAGA阵营中有很多人甚至反对对伊朗动用空中力量，担心被拖入另一场中东战争。
I I think you have a lot of people in the MAGA base who even oppose air power against Iran and the threat of getting pulled into to another Middle Eastern war.
所以我认为地面部队介入的可能性非常非常低，但有一个可能性——我跟美国和以色列的很多人聊过——如果美国决定采取军事行动，有很大可能我们会试图除掉伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊。
So so I think the likelihood of boots on the ground is very very low, but one possibility, which, you know, I've spoken to a lot of people both within The United States and Israel, is that if The United States does decide to take military action, there's a decent likelihood that we will try to take out Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei.
你知道，他在危机时刻会躲进地下，也许在地下150英尺的掩体里，但这也没能保护真主党领导人哈桑·纳斯鲁拉。
And, you know, he he goes underground in these moments of crisis, perhaps, you know, a 150 feet underground in a bunker, but that didn't protect the leader of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah.
你知道，以色列轰炸了他的掩体，有趣的是，他是因窒息而死的。
You know, the Israelis bombed his bunker, and what's interesting is he he he died from suffocation.
他并不是因为炸弹直接砸中头部而死的。
He didn't die because the bombs dropped on his head and killed him.
他的身体完好无损，但他是因窒息死亡的。
His body was intact, but he he died from suffocation.
因此，这无疑是一个可能性。
And so that is certainly a possibility.
而且，斯科特，现实是，没人能预测那之后会发生什么。
And the the reality, Scott, is that no one can predict what comes the day after that.
而对于伊朗伊斯兰共和国的未来，一个关键问题是其安全部队的凝聚力。
And the big question for the the future of the Islamic Republic Of Iran is the cohesion of its security forces.
到目前为止，我们看到了大规模的民众抗议和广泛的民众不满，但政权的安全部队——革命卫队和巴斯基民兵——加起来可能有数十万人。
Up until now, we've seen enormous popular protests, enormous popular discontent, but the regime's security forces, the revolutionary guards, the Basij militia, who collectively probably number in the hundreds of thousands.
革命卫队大约有15万人。
Revolutionary guards are probably 150,000 men.
如果实施封锁，人数可能翻倍。
By siege, perhaps double that.
我们尚未看到他们内部出现分裂或裂痕的迹象。
We haven't seen yet signs of splinters or fissures amongst them.
问题是，如果美国决定并实施对伊朗最高领袖的暗杀，这些部队的凝聚力会发生什么变化？
And the question is, if The United States decides and carry out carries out an assassination against Iran's supreme leader, What happens to the cohesion of those forces?
他们会团结一致，认为要么杀人，要么被杀，然后躲起来，等待时机再反击吗？
Do they do they rally together, and and and do they believe it's either killer be killed and and hunkered down and and and survive to kill another day?
还是说哈梅内伊是维系他们团结的纽带，而最终他们会解散？
Or is Khamenei the glue that holds them together, and they eventually disband?
对此坦诚的回答是我们不知道，Scott，因为我认为他们自己也不知道。
And the honest answer to that is that we don't know, and then we don't know, Scott, because I don't think they know.
你知道，我们常常低估了当人们陷入危机时，往往无法预知自己会如何反应——每个人都在进行心理权衡，这是一场赌博，可能朝多个方向发展。
You know, we oftentimes underestimate the extent to which when people are put in these crisis situations, you oftentimes don't know how you're going to react, you know, how how you're every every person is making mental calculations, and this is a gamble, and it could go in multiple directions.
我认为特朗普对自己的胜算感觉相当不错。
And, I think president Trump feels probably pretty good about his odds.
我认为伊朗人民会欢迎美国的这种赌博，但该地区其他国家则担心由此带来的反噬。
I think the Iranian people would welcome that gamble from The United States, but other countries in the region, you know, are are concerned about the blowback against them.
我们谈到了钻地炸弹。
We talked about bunker busters.
特朗普称我们针对核设施的军事行动是一次巨大的成功。
So Trump calls the military operation where we went after the nuclear sites a resounding success.
在你看来是这样吗？
Was it in your view?
哦，你指的是去年夏天吗？
Oh, you're talking about last summer?
是的。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
这取决于你的衡量标准是什么。
So it depends what your metric is.
我的意思是，特朗普总统曾说他彻底摧毁了伊朗的核计划，事情就此结束。
I mean, president Trump had said that he had obliterated Iran's nuclear program, and it was end of story.
你知道，那个计划已经终结了。
You know, the the program was done for.
但现在他又说我们需要和他们达成一项核协议。
Now he's saying that we need to get a nuclear deal with them.
他的特使史蒂夫·维特科夫最近表示，伊朗可能距离生产武器级铀仅剩数周，但这一点其实并不明确，我认为他们对自己被赋予的谈判议题并没有真正清晰的理解。
And his envoy, Steve Witkoff, recently said that Iran is perhaps weeks away from weapons grade uranium, which it's not really clear that I think they don't actually have a great grasp of the issues that they are tasked with negotiating.
所以，你知道，很多时候语言表述有些模糊，但这里确实存在一种张力，因为他曾宣布成功。
So, you know, oftentimes, the language is a little bit muddy, but there is a tension there because, you know, he declared success.
该计划已被彻底摧毁。
The program was obliterated.
那么问题来了：如果我们已经彻底摧毁了伊朗的核计划，为什么现在还要与伊朗就其核计划进行谈判呢？
And now question is, well, why are we negotiating, wanting to negotiate with Iran over its nuclear program if we already obliterated it?
在这里，我的观点是，这里缺失的是罗纳德·里根对苏联所采用的一种战略——如果你回头看看里根的演讲，他的语言非常简洁明了。
And, you know, here, my view is that what's lacking here is one of the strategy that Ronald Reagan applied to the Soviet Union, which is if you go back and read Reagan's speeches, the language was quite simple.
他相信，世界上最具力量的要素之一，就是人类渴望自由、渴望生活在自由社会中的愿望。
He believed that one of the most powerful forces in the world was the desire of human beings to live freely, to live under free societies.
他将美国的力量和外交政策与俄罗斯人民追求自由的目标相一致，并坚定地站在俄罗斯那些追求自由的人、那些持不同政见者一边。
And he aligned American power and American foreign policy with that goal of of Russians to live under freedom, and he stood with those freedom seekers in in in Russia, those those dissidents.
美国曾拥有整套机构体系，多个机构如美国之音、自由欧洲电台、国家民主基金会等，都致力于支持这些理想与目标，帮助那些民主与自由运动。
And we had a whole kind of institution, multiple institutions in The United States, places like, you know, Voice of America, Radio Free Europe, National Endowment for Democracy, which stood for those aspirations and those goals and helped those democratic and freedom movements.
而目前并不存在这样的机制。
And that doesn't really exist at the moment.
这些机构已经严重萎缩。
Those institutions have really atrophied.
我不认为特朗普总统曾发出过警告，要求伊朗不要杀害抗议者。
And I I don't think, you know, president Trump is he he issued these warnings against Iran not to kill protesters.
但住在华盛顿，我能感受到，现在无论是国务院还是其他非政府组织，都缺乏足够的人手去思考如何推动伊朗的变革。
But, you know, living in Washington, I can see that there aren't a lot of people right now, whether in the State Department or other NGOs, that are empowered to be thinking about, you know, how do we advance the cause of change in Iran?
我们该如何支持伊朗的反对派？
How do we potentially help Iran's opposition?
你最终说得对，斯科特，你之前提到的观点是：在我看来，这场持续了四十七年的美伊冷战，不会由美国谈判代表或美国的炸弹来终结。
And you're ultimately correct, Scott, what you said earlier that, you know, it's my view that the US Iran Cold War, which has now persisted for forty seven years, it's not going to be ended by American negotiators or even American bombs.
只有当伊朗出现一个反映本国人民追求繁荣与安全这一国家利益的政府时，它才会终结。
It's going to be ended when you have a government in Iran that reflects the country's national interests of wanting to advance its own prosperity and security.
正如我们在许多其他地方看到的那样，我们确实可以用军事力量摧毁很多东西。
And, you know, we can we can destroy a lot with military power as we've seen in a lot of other places.
但我认为，那些本应在这些国家帮助稳定局势、维持后续发展的机构，如今在美国已经严重衰退。
But I think those institutions that help kind of solidify the day after and the day after the day after in those countries, those institutions have atrophied in The United States.
我们马上回来。
We'll be right back.
唐纳德·特朗普国情咨文中关于外交政策的主要观点是什么？
What are the main takeaways of the foreign policy section from Donald Trump's State of the Union address?
我认为，随着中期选举临近，他们已决定将重点放在国内议题上。
I do think they've made a decision to elevate domestic issues as we head towards the midterms.
我们会看看这种策略能否持续，因为他总是会被拉回到外交政策议题上。
We'll see if that sticks because he keeps getting drawn back to the foreign policy issues.
我是约翰·费纳。
I'm John Feiner.
我是杰克·苏利文，我们是每周国家安全播客《长远博弈》的主持人。
And I'm Jake Sullivan, and we're the hosts of The Long Game, a weekly national security podcast.
本周，我们将对特朗普总统的国情咨文、伊朗局势以及墨西哥贩毒集团爆发的暴力事件作出回应。
This week, we'll react to president Trump's state of the union address, the situation with Iran, and the eruption of violence involving cartels in Mexico.
本期节目现已发布。
The episode's out now.
请在您收听播客的平台搜索并关注《The Long Game》。
Search for and follow the long game wherever you get your podcasts.
随着数百万份与杰弗里·爱泼斯坦案相关的文件被公开，那些富人和名人终于开始感受到压力。
In the wake of the release of millions of documents related to the Jeffrey Epstein case, the rich and famous are finally feeling some pain.
但即便有企业高管辞职，英国前安德鲁王子也被逮捕，问题依然存在：当几乎所有人都知道他所作所为时，杰弗里·爱泼斯坦为何还能几十年如一日地在精英圈中如鱼得水？
But even with corporate resignations here and with former prince Andrew being arrested in The UK, the question remains, how did Jeffrey Epstein remain a thriving member of the elite for decades when everyone seemed to know what he was up to?
我认为，如果你是杰弗里·爱泼斯坦的朋友，而他的惯用手法明显是与未成年少女发生性关系——即使特朗普曾说他偏好‘年纪更小的’——你不可能不知道他的所作所为。
I don't think you could be friends with Jeffrey Epstein whose MO was obviously having sex with young girls, even as Trump said, on the younger side and not know his MO.
揭开爱泼斯坦阴谋的真相。
Untangling the Epstein conspiracy.
本周《今日解析》为您呈现。
That's this week on Today Explained.
工作日每日更新，现在周六也更新。
Every weekday and now on Saturdays.
本周《财富与闲聊》节目中，我邀请到了她的第一位十万粉丝——托里·邓洛普，一位正在改变整个世代对金钱认知的个人理财创作者。
This week on Net Worth and Chill, I'm joined by her first 100 k, aka Tori Dunlop, a fellow personal finance creator who's changing how an entire generation thinks about money.
托里的经历堪称将个人理财的胜利转化为赋能数百万人平台的典范课程。
Tori's journey is a master class in turning personal finance wins into a platform that empowers millions.
她坦诚分享了在没有典型特权和盲目建议的情况下实现六位数目标的真实策略，以及她如何重新定义2026年‘富有女性’的含义。
She opens up about the real strategy behind hitting that 6 figure milestone without the typical privilege blind advice and how she's redefining what it means to be a wealthy woman in 2026.
我们将深入探讨适合普通人、有实际预算的投资策略，并说明为什么财务女权主义不仅仅是一个流行词，而是一场运动。
We're diving deep into investment strategies for real people with real budgets and why financial feminism isn't just a buzzword, it's a movement.
准备好迎接一场关于金钱、创业以及真正构建个人财富与商业帝国所需付出的坦诚对话吧。
Get ready for an unfiltered conversation about money, entrepreneurship, and what it really takes to build both personal wealth and a business empire.
请在您收听播客的平台收听，或在 youtube.com/you'rerichbff 观看视频。
Listen wherever you get your podcasts or watch on youtube.com/you'rerichbff.
我们继续带来卡里姆的更多内容。
We're back with more from Kareem.
当某些冲突发生时，为什么会让左翼情绪激化，而另一方面，坦白说，我是丹·切诺夫，您觉得这是为什么？
What are your thoughts around why, when there's certain conflicts, it inflames elements of the left, and yet there seems to be I mean, quite frank I'm I'm Dan Chenoweth.
我把左翼或极左翼看作不是反战，而是反西方。我发现这种观点存在一种虚伪，正如艾拉·克莱伯恩所说的‘道德色码’：当压迫者是棕色人种时，我们称之为文化；
I see the left or or the far left as being not antiwar but anti West that I find that there's such a hypocrisy of what I Ella Klaibon refers to a moral color code that when the oppressors are, are seen as brown, we call it culture.
而当压迫者是西方人或白人时，我们就称之为种族灭绝。
And when the oppressors are seen as Western or white, we call it genocide.
我想知道，对于那三万人——在我看来，他们是被国家支持的恐怖行动杀害的——为何在美国几乎没有抗议或关注？为什么没有所谓的抗议运动？
I'm curious on your thoughts around the lack of protest or concern around these 30,000 people who, in my opinion, have been murdered by, or state sponsored terror and the lack of what I'll call a protest movement in The United States.
你知道，我总是想起那句常被归于丘吉尔的话——我这里是在转述，也许不完全准确：如果你18岁还不是左派，那你没有良心；如果你30岁还是左派，那你没有头脑。这说明长期以来，年轻人一直有反抗帝国主义的倾向，而这种倾向的表现就是反对与美国结盟的政府。
You know, I'm always reminded of that old quote attributed to Winston Churchill who said, I'm paraphrasing here perhaps, but if you're 18 and not a leftist, you have no heart, and if you're 15 and still leftist, you have no brain, which is that there's long been this tendency among young people to want to stand up against imperialism, and, you know, how that's manifested is to, you know, oppose governments, the conduct of governments that are allied with The United States.
而对于那些反对美国的政府——比如现代的伊朗伊斯兰共和国或巴沙尔·阿萨德的叙利亚——当它们屠杀自己数以万计的人民时，却很少受到批评。
And those governments who are opponents of The United States, whether that's the Islamic Republic Of Iran or or Bashar I said Syria in modern times, there's very little criticism when they kill tens of thousands of their own people.
在上一代人中，像斯大林和苏联、毛泽东这样的独裁者杀害了数百万人，但当时的反帝国主义者显然只反对美国的权力及其盟友的行为。
And, you know, in a previous generation, it was it was dictators like Stalin and the Soviet Union or Mao who who killed millions of their people, and yet, I think the anti imperialists were were obviously opposed to to American power and the the conduct of American allies.
对此，我只能无奈接受，这正是许多大学校园的现实。
And that's just something that I've kind of resigned myself to, that that's that's the reality of of college campuses in in a lot of places.
我想，如果现在有代表这种观点的人和我们通话，他们会说：问题在于，我们根本无法影响伊朗、阿萨德的叙利亚或普京的俄罗斯如何行事，因为它们是美国的对手；但我们确实能影响我们盟友的行为。
And I guess if someone who represents that point of view were on the call with us now, they would say, well, the issue is that we don't have any ability to influence how Iran or Assad's Syria or Putin's Russia conducts themselves because, you know, they're US adversaries, but we do have influence over how our allies conduct themselves.
这将是他们的反驳观点。
That that would be their their counterargument.
但说实话，斯科特，对我来说，这纯粹是一堆噪音。
But I've just kind of to to be honest, Scott, for for me, that's just a lot of noise.
目前，这实际上并不会影响美国将要做出的选择，我认为它也不会深刻影响伊朗国内的民意。
It doesn't really, at the moment, have any impact on what The United States is going to choose to do, and I don't think it profoundly impacts popular opinion inside Iran.
伊朗的大学校园里，绝大多数人都希望美国能进行某种干预。
The college campuses inside Iran are are overwhelmingly hoping for some kind of US intervention.
是的，人们对那些对伊朗伊斯兰共和国表示同情的左派人士充满怨恨。
And, yes, there's a great deal of resentment towards those on the left who have shown sympathy for the Islamic Republic.
但我认为这种噪音并没有真正的重要意义或影响力。
But I don't think that noise is really that meaningful or impactful.
它在社交媒体上获得了大量关注，但在我看来，它并不会对人们在政策选择上的倾向产生任何实质性影响。
It gets a lot of attention on social media, but it doesn't really move the needle one way or the other in my view when it comes to the policy choices people are going to make.
我只是觉得，如果回到两三年前，说伊朗基本上已被削弱，而该地区明显的超级大国似乎是以色列，如今局势变化之大真是令人惊讶。
It just strikes me that if you were to go back two or three years and say that Iran had basically been emasculated and that the clear superpower in the region appears to be Israel, just how much things have changed.
你有什么想法吗？
Do you have any thoughts?
我的意思是，你经常被最高层征询建议，我想象人们一直在让你猜测。
I mean, you're you're called on at the highest levels to provide advice, and I imagine people are constantly asking you to speculate.
你有没有用博弈论分析过中东的现状，以及未来几年不同权力中心可能会如何变化？
Have you game theoried out where you think The Middle East is and how the different centers of power will likely change over the next several years?
我去年秋天在《外交事务》上发表了一篇文章。
So there is an essay I wrote in Foreign Affairs that came out last fall.
这篇文章题为《阿亚图拉的秋天》，探讨了霍梅尼去世后伊朗的几种可能情景。
It's called entitled The Autumn of the Ayatollahs about scenarios for post Khamenei Iran.
我认为，这个政权只是在借来的时光中苟延残喘。
And it is my view that this is a regime on borrowed time.
无论美国是否选择采取军事行动，这个政权都像苏联的最后几年一样。
Whether or not The United States chooses to take military action, this is a regime which I think it's like the last years of the Soviet Union.
它最终会因自身的经济困境和不受欢迎而崩溃。
It'll eventually crumble under the weight of its own economic malaise and unpopularity.
你知道吗，我经常告诉人们，斯科特，这是一个神权政体。
You know, one of the things I I tell people, Scott, is that this is a regime which is a theocracy.
它以道德高地自居，却深陷腐败与压迫之中。
It rules from a moral pedestal, and it's elbow deep in corruption and repression.
这尤其令人愤慨，因为如果你发现你的拉比、牧师或伊玛目在偷你的钱，这比你本地杂货商偷你钱要令人反感得多。
And that is especially insulting to people because, you know, if you find out your rabbi or priest or imam is stealing from you, that's much more offensive than your local grocer stealing from you.
因此，这个群体真的非常愤怒，这种情绪是显而易见的。
And so this is a population which is really outraged, and that's palpable.
这种现状在伊朗是不可持续的。
And this status quo is not sustainable in Iran.
问题是，未来几年会发生什么？
The question is, what happens in the years to come?
在我和我的研究中，有一个统计数据特别引人注目：从二战至今，只有大约五分之一的威权政权更迭最终走向了民主。
And one of the statistics that has jumped out at me and my research is that from World War II to the present, only around one in five authoritarian transitions lead to democracy.
超过80%的情况下，结果是另一种形式的威权政权。
More than 80% of the time, it leads to another form of authoritarian regime.
所以，正如我所说，我多么希望可以说，我看到伊朗正在向挪威或丹麦转型。
So, as I said, I would love to be able to say I see Iran transitioning to Norway or Denmark.
但从统计概率来看，这种情况成功的可能性并不大，但这并不意味着伊朗内部的变革不会改善伊朗人民和美国的处境，因为归根结底，我认为这个政府一直在违背其国家利益——也就是其人民的经济繁荣与安全。
The statistical odds, you know, aren't great for that, but that doesn't mean that change inside Iran won't be an improvement for the Iranian people and for The United States because, ultimately, this is a government which has been acting against its own national interest, in my view, the national interest of its people, meaning the economic prosperity and security of its people.
因此，即使你看到这个政权被一个不再喊着‘打倒美国’、‘打倒以色列’，而是高呼‘伊朗万岁’的政府取代，那也将是一场地缘政治的转折点。
And so even if you see this regime replaced with a government whose ethos is not death to America and death to Israel, but long live Iran, that is a geopolitical game changer.
在我看来，只要这个政权继续掌控伊朗，中东就不会发生根本性变化，就像当年德国由激进分子统治时，欧洲也无法改变一样。
The Middle East, in my view, is not going to change so long as this regime remains in power in Iran, just as long as Germany was ruled by radicals, Europe was not going to change.
这种影响将不仅限于伊朗境内。
And it's the impact will be felt beyond just Iran.
这种影响将波及全球能源市场。
The impact will be felt on global energy markets.
你知道，伊朗本应是一个能源超级大国。
You know, Iran should be an energy superpower.
它拥有全球第二大天然气储量和第三大石油储量，却由于孤立和经济制裁，远未发挥出应有的实力。
It's got the second largest reserves of natural gas, the third largest reserves of oil, and it's punching way below its weight because of its isolation and economic sanctions.
所以这将是一场地缘经济的变革。
So that would be a geoeconomic game changer.
然后，伊朗在世界各地所做的一切破坏行为——比如支持美国的几乎所有对手，无论是委内瑞拉和朝鲜的政府，还是支持普京对乌克兰的战争——在我看来，这些都不反映伊朗的国家利益。
Then all of the mischief that Iran is up to in places like, you know, supporting essentially all American adversaries throughout the world, whether that's governments in Venezuela and North Korea supporting Putin's war against Ukraine, none of that, in my view, is a reflection of Iran's national interests.
因此，我认为，如果伊朗从革命政权过渡到民族主义政权，将会有巨大的积极前景。
And so I do think there is great upside if we see a transition in Iran from revolutionary government to nationalist government.
但我们从历史中也知道，斯科特，专制政权垮台后，民众的意愿并不总是能获胜。
But what we also know from history, Scott, is that the popular will doesn't always prevail after dictatorships collapse.
我给你举几个这样的例子。
I'll give you a couple examples of that.
1990年，当人们抗议苏联时，可能没有人会说：‘我们希望被一名中层克格勃官员统治。’
In 1990, when people were protesting against the Soviet Union, probably no one said that we want to be ruled by a mid ranking KGB agent.
但几年后，弗拉基米尔·普京上台时，情况正是如此，他已统治俄罗斯二十多年。
But that's exactly what happened when Vladimir Putin came to power several years later, and he's he's been ruling Russia for more than two decades.
2011年在埃及，当人们抗议穆巴拉克政府时，可能也没有人希望最终由另一位军事将领来统治。
In Egypt in 2011, where people were protesting the government of Hosni Mubarak, probably no one's preferred outcome was to be ruled by another military general.
而这一结果最终体现为塞西将军，过去十年来他以铁腕手段统治着埃及。
And that's the outcome that prevailed in the form of the General Sisi who's been ruling Egypt with an iron fist over the last decade.
所以，你知道，不幸的是，这正是我在工作中一直关注的问题：抱最好的希望，同时始终思考，我们有哪些方式可以促进美国的国家利益？
So, you know, unfortunately, this is something I'm mindful of in my work is hoping for the best and and, you know, always looking what what are ways in which we can advance US national interest?
哪些工具能够促进美国的国家利益。
What tools advance US national interests.
我认为，伊朗正是一个美国价值观与美国利益高度重合的绝佳例子。
And I think Iran is a very good example of a place in which American values and American interests intersect.
也就是说，如果我们能在伊朗实现代议制民主，那对伊朗人民来说将是非常美好的事。
Meaning, if we did have a representative democracy in Iran, That would be fantastic for the people of Iran.
这对美国的国家利益也将大有裨益。
It would be fantastic for US national interests.
我认为我们应该努力推动这一结果，但同时也要认识到，很遗憾，我们并没有能力按下某个按钮来强制实现我们理想的结果。
And I think we should try to work towards that outcome, at the same time recognizing that, you know, we don't unfortunately have the power to push a button and dictate our ideal outcomes.
卡拉姆，你上一次去伊朗是什么时候？
Karim, when was the last time you were in Iran?
我上一次去伊朗是在2025年，当时差点被监禁。
The last time I was in Iran was twenty two thousand five, and I was nearly imprisoned.
我那时常驻德黑兰。
I had been based in Tehran.
我与一个名为国际危机组织的机构一起在那里工作。
I was with a based there with an organization called International Crisis Group.
我当时二十多岁，他们没收了我的护照，禁止我离开国家好几个月。
I was in my my twenties, and they had taken away my passport and prohibited me from leaving the country for several months.
我接受了审讯，有一次当我试图离开时，几个小时后，我觉得自己即将被送往监狱。
I was subject to interrogation, and and there was a moment when I was trying to leave when, you know, a couple hours I thought I was about to be be taken to prison.
幸运的是，我最终被允许离开，后来伊朗官员警告我，如果我回去，一到机场就会被逮捕。
And, you know, fortunately, I was let allowed to leave, and and I was later warned by Iranian officials that if I go back, I would be arrested upon arrival at the airport.
于是我听从了这个警告，再也没有回去过。
And so I heeded that warning, and I and I haven't been back.
但我的许多密友没有听从这个警告，其中一些人被扣押在伊朗长达多年。
But many of my close friends didn't heed that warning, and some of them were taken hostage in Iran for for many years.
所以，你知道，斯科特在开头就提到了这一点。
And so, you know, Scott, alluded to it at the beginning.
伊朗拥有全世界最成功的侨民群体之一。
Iran has one of the most successful diasporas in the entire world.
美国工业界的领袖人物，比如优步的首席执行官达拉·科斯鲁沙希。
Captains of American industry, people like Dara Khostrushahi, the CEO of Uber.
这些人对自己的文化遗产感到非常自豪，他们非常希望为伊朗的积极变革做出贡献。
These are people who are very proud of their heritage, and they would love to contribute to positive change in Iran.
但你面对的是一个将侨民视为敌人的政权，他们不寻求利用这些人的支持，反而把劫持人质变成了这项政权的生意。
But you have a regime which essentially views its diaspora adversaries, and rather than, you know, enlisting their support, hostage taking has become a business for this regime.
所以，你知道，在可预见的未来，只要这个政权还在掌权，我就不会再去伊朗了。
And so, you know, for the foreseeable future, certainly as long as this regime is in power, you know, I'm not going to be visiting Iran.
所以，再次说明，这可能有点天真，但我们这个环节就到这里，感谢你抽出时间。
So, and again, this might be Pollyanna, and we'll wrap up in a segment, but generous for your time.
几年前的一个夏天，我在米科诺斯岛，去了家顶级餐厅，那里人人都在桌子上跳舞，年轻人花几千美元，炫耀、示意，诸如此类。
I was in Mykonos a couple summers ago, and we went to one of those super high end restaurants where everyone ends up dancing on tables and, you know, young people are spending thousands of dollars and signaling and, you know, all the rest.
那里有很多来自海湾地区的孩子。
And there were a lot of kids from The Gulf.
我知道这有点刻板印象，但他们都在大把花钱，而且都非常有礼貌。
And and I'm making stereotypes here, but they all spending a ton of money, all incredibly respectful.
我感觉他们的父母基本上告诉他们：这是一张没有限额的信用卡。
I I got the sense they were basically told by their parents, here's a credit card with no limit.
只要别给我们丢脸就行。
Just don't embarrass us.
这就是我的感受。
That's the vibe I got.
有些人对此发表了负面评论，说这些海湾富家子弟太张扬了。
And there were some negative comments from people about, oh, all these golf kids are so glad.
但我却觉得，这是一种希望的迹象。
And I'm like, this is a sign of hope.
这些是来自该地区的年轻资本家。
These are kids from the region who are capitalists.
他们想要一些西方社会的附属品。
They want, you know, they want some of the accoutrements of Western society.
这是积极的，因为他们希望成为其中一员——无论你觉得这令人反感还是做作，总比他们走向极右或成为憎恨西方的宗教原教旨主义者要好。
This is a positive, that they wanna be, you know, part of whether you find it obnoxious or douchey, whatever, it's better than them going hard right or becoming religious fundamentalists who hate the West.
我是不是太乐观了？在伊朗，是否正涌现出一代年轻人，他们向往西方，更倾向于资本主义，希望享受生活——我甚至不敢说‘自由’，因为在海湾地区，我们通常不会走向民主，这里也不太可能走向民主。
Am I being Pollyanna in that there is an emerging younger generation in Iran that wants to look West and is more capitalist and wants to enjoy I won't even say the freedoms because in The Gulf, we don't usually end up with democracies, and it's unlikely we'll end up with a democracy here.
我明白你的观点。
I heed the point.
但伊朗是否正涌现出一代人，他们真心希望向西方看齐，享受资本主义带来的种种便利，希望利用伊朗本可以开发的惊人资源和经济潜力？
But is there an emerging generation of people in Iran that quite frankly wanna look West, wanna take advantage of some of the capitalist accoutrements, that wanna take advantage of the incredible resources and economy that Iran could start producing?
这种对未来的展望是否不切实际？
And is that is that an unrealistic vision of what could happen here?
因为我要再回到之前的话题。
Because I'll go back.
我会从我最初开始的地方结束。
I'll start I'll finish where I started.
你提到一些人。
You mentioned some people.
当我还在旧金山时，我的一位导师叫哈米德·莫加达姆，他在革命期间来到这里，是普洛格里斯的首席执行官，可能是全球最大的房地产投资信托基金。
One of one of my mentors when I was at San Francisco, guy named Hamid Mogadam, who came over during the revolution, CEO of Prologis, probably the biggest REIT in the world.
而且，你知道，我可以继续说下去。
And, you know, I can go on.
我兄弟会里的朋友们，比如大卫·阿塞尔和卡里亚苏，他们给我的感觉甚至比美国人还像美国人。
My friends in the fraternity, David Aseel, Carriasu, they all just literally struck me as being more American than Americans.
是否有一代新兴的人，真的会接受资本主义的西方理念呢？
Is there an emerging generation of of people who really would, know, would embrace the capitalist Western mentality?
当然，斯科特。
100%, Scott.
现在这可能是中东最世俗的社会，四十七年的神权统治留下的遗产，就是一群迫切希望将清真寺与国家分离、而非融合的人口。
This is probably the most secular society now in The Middle East, and that's what forty seven years of theocracy, that's the legacy that's left for Iran, that you have a population desperate to separate mosque and state rather than join it.
这可能是世界上最具反美色彩的政权。
It's the most anti American regime probably in the world.
这可能是中东地区最亲美的群体。
It's probably the most pro American population in The Middle East.
我认为伊朗的每个人，或者绝大多数年轻人，都意识到只要伊朗的官方口号还是‘打倒美国’，伊朗就永远无法实现其作为国家的巨大潜力。
I think everyone in Iran or the vast majority of young people recognize that Iran will never fulfill its enormous potential as a nation so long as their official slogan is death to America.
但你知道，说到你提到的海湾国家，我认为中东地区有两类角色。
But, you know, I say there's kind of two kinds of actors in The Middle East to go to your mentioning of the Gulf countries.
比如阿联酋和沙特阿拉伯，它们有着前瞻性的愿景，即2030愿景和2031愿景。
So you have countries like The UAE and Saudi Arabia, and they have forward looking visions, vision 2,030, vision 2,031.
伊朗伊斯兰共和国的愿景是1979年的愿景。
The vision of the Islamic Republic Of Iran is vision nineteen seventy nine.
这是一种倒退的愿景。
It's a backward looking vision.
海湾国家的愿景迎合了人们的抱负和希望。
The the The Gulf visions are appealing to people's aspirations and hopes.
伊朗伊斯兰共和国则试图迎合人们的不满情绪。
The Islamic Republic Of Iran is trying to appeal to people's grievances.
我把它们称为鹰和秃鹫。
I call them falcons and vultures.
鹰想要建设高飞的社会、城市和企业。
The falcons want to build soaring societies and cities and companies.
秃鹫则只是试图从他人的苦难中获利。
The vultures are just trying to feed off the the misery of others.
这种模式在伊朗内部已被彻底证明是失败的。
And that model has been totally proven bankrupt inside Iran.
没有人愿意生活在这种模式下。
No one wants to live under this model.
我甚至认为，在政权内部，绝大多数人也意识到这是一种行不通的失败模式。
I would even argue within the regime, the vast majority realize that this is a broken model that's not going to work.
因此，我对伊朗的未来充满希望。
And so I am I am hopeful about Iran's future.
我说，隧道尽头有光，挑战在于打造这条隧道，让人民能够实现他们作为国家所拥有的巨大抱负和潜力。
You know, I say there's light at the end of the tunnel, and the challenge is to create that tunnel so people can fulfill the enormous aspirations, enormous potential they have as a nation.
因此，我想强调，我认为这同样符合美国的国家利益。
And so I just wanna emphasize, I think that that is also a US national interest.
伊朗可能是美国价值观——无论是民主、自由市场还是自由社会——与美国利益最完美的交汇点，让我们看到一个不同的伊朗。
This is Iran is probably the best example in where American values, whether it's democracy or free markets or liberal societies, intersect with American interests to see a different kind of Iran.
我认为我们一直低估了自身的软实力，以及与人民愿景产生共鸣的能力。
And I think we've been underestimating our soft power and our ability to align ourselves with the aspirations of of people.
在我看来，这正是冷战时期的一个重要教训。
And and, you know, that was, in my view, one of the great lessons of of the Cold War.
我们之所以获胜，是因为我们的价值观取得了胜利，现在我们也应以同样的热情应对伊朗问题。
We prevailed because our values prevailed, and think we should muster that same kind of energy vis a vis Iran now.
卡里姆·萨吉普是卡内基国际和平基金会的高级研究员，专攻伊朗和美国外交政策。
Kareem Sajipur is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace specializing in Iran and US foreign policy.
他今天从一个被大雪覆盖的国家首都加入我们。
He joins us from a snowy nation's capital today.
卡里姆，很高兴你来参加节目。
Kareem, I love having you on.
我之所以欣赏你，是因为我能明白你为何如此有效。
I find you just so I can see why you're so effective.
你非常理性、冷静，能够与双方沟通。
You're just very reasoned, very rational, have an ability to speak to both sides.
我喜欢这一点：我根本看不出你的政治倾向。
I love the fact I can't discern your political leanings.
在这个时代，我特别尊重那些我完全猜不出他属于哪个政党的人。
I have a special respect for people in this day and age from, like, I have no idea what political party this guy belongs to.
我认为，我们的智库或像你这样有影响力的位置上，更需要这样的人。
I I think we need more of that in our in our think tanks or, in in, you know, in positions of influence such as yourself.
非常感谢你抽出时间，卡里姆。
Very much appreciate your time, Karim.
谢谢你，斯科特。
Thank you, Scott.
你这么说真是太客气了，和你对话非常愉快。
It's very kind of you to say, and all is great being on with you.
本集由詹妮弗·桑切斯和劳拉·詹纳制作。
This episode was produced by Jennifer Sanchez and Laura Jenner.
卡米·里克是我们社交媒体制作人。
Kami Riek is our social producer.
比安卡·罗萨里奥·拉米雷斯是我们视频编辑。
Bianca Rosario Ramirez is our video editor.
德鲁·伯罗斯是我们技术总监。
And Drew Burrows is our technical director.
感谢您收听Prop G Media的Prop G播客。
Thank you for listening to the Prop G Pod from Prop G Media.
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