一种关于他人如何看待你的虚假认知

投资成功很少是因为你比别人懂得多。

Success in investing is rarely about knowing more than everyone else.

更多时候，是在不确定性上升时避免情绪化的错误。

More often, it's about avoiding emotional mistakes when uncertainty rises.

Davis Advisors 认同这一理念：他们以研究驱动的主动管理组合，秉持长期视角，旨在帮助投资者在不同市场周期中参与优质企业的成长。

Davis Advisors shares that philosophy: Their research driven active portfolios are managed with a long term perspective designed to help investors participate in the growth of durable businesses across market cycles.

了解更多，请访问 davisadvisors.com。

Learn more at davisadvisors.com.

投资前，您应仔细考虑投资目标、风险、费用和开支。

Before investing, you should carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses.

招股说明书或 Form ADV 包含这些及其他信息。

The prospectus or Form ADV contains this and other information.

您可拨打 1802792279 获取最新的招股说明书或 Form ADV。

You can obtain a current prospectus or Form ADV by calling 1802792279.

投资涉及风险，包括可能损失本金。

Investing involves risks, including possible loss of principal.

好的。

Alright.

在我开始之前，很快说一句。

Really quickly before I get going.

自从我们改版这个播客已经三四个月了，现在我们有视频和新格式，我会回答你们的问题，而且效果很好。

It's been three or four months since we've reformatted this podcast, Now we have video and the new format where I'm taking your questions, and it's going great.

数据也很棒。

The numbers are great.

真的很开心。

Really happy.

所以我们会继续做下去。

So we're gonna keep doing it.

而且作为其中的一部分，如果我能更多地了解你们，知道你们是谁，想听什么内容，那会非常有帮助。

And as part of that, it would be really helpful if I could learn more about you and who you are and what you want to hear and listen to.

节目笔记里有一个很简短的调查问卷，可以让我多了解你们一点。

There is a very quick survey in the show notes where I can learn a little bit more about you.

大概只需要三十秒。

It might take you thirty seconds.

如果你能帮忙填一下，那就太好了。

If you could do it, it would be helpful.

如果不行，也没关系。

If not, that's okay too.

那我们就直接开始这周的节目吧。

And we can just start this week's show.

过去几个月里，我有两件小事一直在琢磨。

Two little experiences that I had in the last couple months that I've been thinking about.

一件是，如果你知道那些电动自行车的话，就是那种看起来每个青少年都在骑，在全国各地街头乱窜、惹麻烦的那种。

One was if you're familiar with the ebikes that seemingly every adolescent teenager is riding all around and causing havoc in the streets all over the country.

我不确定这是不是全球现象，但几周前我们遇到了一件事，一个大概十五岁的男孩在路上，他来了个前轮离地，然后回头直直地看着我。

I don't know if it's a global phenomenon, but we had this experience, a couple weeks ago where a 15 year old boy or around that age was on one of the roads, and he does a wheelie, like pops a wheelie, and then he turns around and looks me right in the eye.

作为曾经也是十五岁的男孩，我知道他在想什么。

As a former 15 year old boy, I know what he's thinking.

他心想，哦，我打赌那个人肯定特别佩服我。

He's like, oh, I bet that guy is so impressed with me.

我打赌他觉得我特别酷，而且他想看看我脸上那种佩服的表情。

I bet he thinks I'm so cool, and I wanna see the look on his face when he's so impressed with me.

但实际上，我心里想的是，你这个白痴。

And, of course, the reality was I was like, you idiot.

你在干什么？

What are you doing?

你要是继续这么干，能活到下个月就算你走运了。

You're gonna be lucky if you're alive for another month if you keep doing that.

就是那种他对我看法的猜测，完全错了。

Just the general idea of, like, his perception of what I thought of him was so completely wrong.

他觉得自己特别酷，我也特别佩服他，但实际上恰恰相反。

He thought he was so cool, and I was so impressed, and it was actually the exact opposite.

我觉得世界上有很多这样的情况，你对别人怎么看待你的技能或者物质财富的猜测，往往和实际情况完全不一样。

And I think there are so many instances like that in the world where your perception of how other people view your skills or your, let's say, material possessions is totally wrong of what you think it might be.

另一个我有的……

The other that I had...

我已经看过这部纪录片好几遍了，因为它真的太好看了。

I've I've watched the documentary a couple of times now because it's that good.

这部纪录片叫《最后之舞》，讲的是迈克尔·乔丹的职业生涯，特别是九十年代那段时间。

The documentary, The Last Dance, which is about Michael Jordan's career, particularly in the nineteen nineties.

真的好看得不得了。

It's unbelievably good.

它是一部十集的纪录片。

It's like a 10 part documentary.

就算你不喜欢篮球，你也会爱上它的。

Even if you don't like basketball, you'll love it.

里面有几个镜头，迈克尔·乔丹开着他的红色法拉利。

And there's a couple scenes in there where Michael Jordan is driving his red Ferrari.

我当时就有一种很本能的感觉，想都没想，就是觉得，天哪，他太酷了。

And I had this just visceral, like, didn't even think about it, but this feeling when I saw that of just like, gosh, he's so cool.

看看那个。

Look at that.

看看那家伙。

Look at that guy.

那是法拉利。

It is Ferrari.

他太酷了。

He's so awesome.

先不说这个。

Put that aside.

还有，几个月前在我老家，我遇到一个不认识的人。

I also had this situation a couple months ago in my hometown where I saw a guy who I didn't know.

我不知道他是谁，开着红色法拉利在城里转，几乎和迈克尔·乔丹的那辆一模一样。

I don't know who he is driving around town in a red Ferrari, almost exactly like Michael Jordan's.

我当时又有那种本能的反应，就是不喜欢。

And I have this other, like, visceral reaction of, like, I just didn't like it.

就是感觉他只是在炫耀，好像他很不自信。

It it just felt like he was just trying to show off, like he was insecure.

如果我有任何感觉的话，那就是，哦，这有点像中年危机的表现。

And if I had any feeling, it was like, oh, there goes a midlife crisis kind of thing.

后来我想，这两种感觉为什么会有这么大的差别呢？

And I thought later, I'm like, what's the divergence in those feelings?

迈克尔·乔丹开那辆车？

Michael Jordan in the car?

太酷了。

Awesome.

很喜欢。

Love that.

另一个陌生人开那辆车？

This other stranger in the car?

讨厌。

Hate it.

不喜欢。

Don't like it.

而且好消息是。

And good news.

这些只是我大脑里像原始人一样的直觉反应。

These are just like caveman feelings from my brain.

就是说，我并没有深思熟虑，而且我也不想评判任何人，但那就是我的感觉。

Like, I'm not thinking this through, and I don't wanna judge anyone anyways, but that was the feeling.

我觉得如果要总结一下，大概就是这样。

And I think if I had to sum it up, it's something like this.

迈克尔·乔丹开法拉利看起来很酷，因为他是迈克尔·乔丹，因为我知道他有多厉害，因为我知道他有多有本事，因为我知道他在自己的领域里比我和所有听这个节目的人都强上百万倍。

Michael Jordan looks cool in the Ferrari because he's Michael Jordan, because I know how amazing he is, because I know how skilled he is, because I know that he is a million times better than me or anyone listening to this doing what he does.

他配得上那样的成功。

He deserves that success.

而那个开同款车的陌生人，我对他做什么一无所知。

The stranger who I see driving the same car, I don't know anything about what he does.

我还没有……

I have not...

说不定他就是个靠信托基金的。

For all I know, he's a trust fund.

我完全不知道他是干嘛的。

I have no clue what he does.

也许他确实很成功、很厉害，也许不是。

Maybe he is super successful and impressive, maybe not.

所以很容易把那个人想成：你觉得你比我强，就因为你开这车？

And so it's much easier to frame that guy as you think you're better than me because you're a car?

因为我觉得你并不比我强。

Because I don't think you are.

然后这就变成了一场较量。

And then it just turns into almost like a a battle.

所以，这又回到了那个问题：他可能以为我怎么看他，和我实际上怎么看他，差别很大。

And so that again, if just like there was a big difference in what is likely his perception of what I think of him and what it actually is.

而且我觉得，就像我们在国内关于财富不平等的辩论一样，这场辩论已经持续了很久，可能还会继续下去。我一直觉得有趣的是，如果有一群非常富有的人，他们基本上能逃脱那种因为富有和过着奢华生活而受到的批评，那往往就是运动员和艺术家。

And I think as we'd have a much larger debate as we have and probably will continue for a while about wealth inequality in the country, I've always thought it interesting that if there is a group of very wealthy people who by and large escape that criticism of being wealthy and living ostentatious lives, it tends to be athletes and artists.

大多数人不会嫉妒NBA球员、棒球运动员、橄榄球运动员或者他们最喜欢的音乐家赚多少钱。

Most people are not jealous of how much money an NBA player, baseball player, football player, their favorite musician makes.

泰勒·斯威夫特从巡演中赚了大约20亿美元，我觉得大多数人都会觉得，哇，太厉害了。

Taylor Swift made, like, $2,000,000,000 from her tour, and I think by and large, people are, like, amazing.

勒布朗·詹姆斯、斯蒂芬·库里，大多数人也不会介意他们赚那么多钱。

LeBron James, Steph Curry, people don't mind, by and large, that they're making that much money.

我觉得部分原因是，在这些情况下，运动员和艺术家能做一些你做不到的事情，这一点非常明显。

And I think part of the reason is that it is so clear in those instances, athletes and artists, that they can do something that you can't.

比如，大多数人真的相信精英主义，认为拥有非凡技能的人应该得到非凡的回报，过上非凡的生活。

Like, most people really believe in meritocracy, that people who have exceptional skills should get exceptional results and live exceptional lives.

那些人对此完全没问题。

Those people are totally okay with that.

我觉得当遇到那些你不知道他们怎么赚到钱，或者你知道但觉得他们对社会没有好处的人时，情况就变得模糊和复杂多了。

I think it gets much more gray and murky when you have people who you either don't know how they made their money or you know and you don't think it's beneficial in society.

这就是很多嫉妒，或者说负面情绪的来源。

That's where a lot of the envy, if you wanna call it that, or just the ill feelings tends to come from.

关于这一点，我最后想说的是，当我们谈论观察别人、拿自己和别人比较、别人的生活和自己的生活比较时，我觉得这是不可避免的。

The one last point that I would make on this is when we're talking about looking at other people, comparing yourself to other people, their life versus your life, which I think is unavoidable.

人就是这样。

It's just kinda how people work.

一个普遍的观点是，财富是你看不见的东西。

The general idea that wealth is what you do not see.

你能看到别人的车、房子和衣服。

You can see somebody's car and their house and their clothes.

但你完全看不到他们真实的财务状况。

You cannot see anything about how well they're actually doing financially.

你看不到他们的净资产。

You can't see their net worth.

你看不到他们的银行账单、收入报表。

You can't see their bank statements, their income statements.

所以很有可能，你真正羡慕的那个人，如果你认识他，他的生活是完全不为人知的。

And so there's a very good chance that the person whose life you actually admire the most, if you got to know them, is completely hidden from view.

这不是你能看到并感觉到的那种，比如，他们过得很好。

It's not something that you can see and have a good sense of like, oh, they're living a great life.

我最想以之为榜样的人，可能是一个我永远都看不到的人。

The person who I would actually wanna role model my life off of the most is probably somebody who is and will remain completely invisible to me.

财富是你看不到的东西。

Wealth is what you don't see.

好的。

Alright.

现在开始回答你们的一些问题。

Getting into some of your questions now.

这个问题来自Gabby。

This one's from Gabby.

她说，你经常谈论运气在生活和成就中的作用。

She says, you often talk about the role of luck in lives and accomplishments.

这让我不禁思考，我们的成功到底有多少是真正靠运气，又有多少是来自我们自己的主动选择和决定。

It made me wonder how much of our success is really driven by luck and how much comes from our own agency and the choices that we make.

这些年来，运气对你有什么影响？

How has luck influenced you over the years?

你觉得你自己算幸运吗？

Do you consider yourself lucky?

加比，问得好。

Gabby, good question.

我觉得很多人都有一种近乎励志自我安慰的说法，比如“我越努力，我就越幸运”。

I think it's very common for people to have this almost quasi motivational self hope quote of, like, the harder I try, the luckier I get.

就是那种话。

Like, you know, that that kind of thing.

我觉得这其实是对运气的误解。

And I think that's always a misdefinition of what luck is.

如果你能通过技能提高获得好运的几率，那就不叫运气了。

If you can put skill into something to improve your odds of getting lucky, it's not luck.

那只是技能。

It's just skill.

所以当我想到运气时，我想到的是完全、彻底不受任何人控制的事情。

And so when I think of luck, I think of things that are completely and utterly outside of anyone's control.

其中最突出的就是你出生在哪里、什么时候出生、以及出生在什么样的家庭。

The most prominent of those being where, when, and to whom you were born.

这些事情显然没有人能控制，但它们却对你的生活有着巨大的影响。

Things that you obviously nobody has any influence over at all, but, of course, have a massive influence over your life.

所以如果迈克尔·乔丹出生在不同的时代、不同的国家，他就不可能取得他现在的成就。

And so if Michael Jordan was born in a different era in a different country, he would not have been able to achieve what he did.

他可能会取得一些非凡的成就。

He may have achieved something spectacular.

他显然有一些惊人的特质，但不会是他现在所取得的那些。

He obviously had some amazing traits, not what he did.

我觉得几乎任何你视为榜样的人，你可能会说，哦，他们成就了伟大的事情。

And I think almost anyone who you might look at as a role model and say, oh, they've accomplished great things.

他们无法控制的外部环境，对他们产生了巨大影响。

There are circumstances outside of their control they had no influence over that had a massive impact on that.

当然，反过来想，有多少像爱因斯坦、迈克尔·乔丹、史蒂夫·乔布斯这样的人，可能因为出生在错误的时代、错误的国家，或者错误的父母，而没能获得那些他们完全无法控制的机会。

And, of course, there's a flip side of this of trying to wonder how many Albert Einstein's, Michael Jordan's, Steve Jobs, whoever it might be, are out there in the world who were born in the wrong era or in the wrong country or to the wrong parents and didn't have those opportunities that they had no influence over whatsoever.

对我来说，这就是运气，而且它非常强大。

That to me is what luck is, and it is powerful.

它无处不在。

It is all over the place.

对我而言，一个实际的启示是，当我敬佩那些取得了我想取得的成就的人时，我觉得很重要的一点是，要区分他们生活中哪些是可以重复、可以模仿的，哪些是完全超出他们控制范围的。

And to me, one of the the practical takeaways from that is when I do look up to people and admire people who have accomplished something that I would like to accomplish, I think it's really important to separate what they did in their life that they could repeat and I could copy versus what is something that was just completely outside of their control.

我觉得这常常是描述运气的方式。

I think that's often the way to phrase luck.

运气通常是个不中听的词。

Luck is usually a four letter word.

人们不喜欢用它。

People don't like using it.

看起来你在嫉妒别人。

It seems like you're jealous of someone else.

我觉得更好的说法是，生活中什么是可以重复的？

I think the better way to phrase it is what is repeatable in life?

什么技能是你能够持续去做的？

What is a skill that you can do that you can keep on doing?

它并不特别依赖于某个特定的时间段或时代。

It doesn't specifically rely on a certain time period or era.

它是你可以一遍又一遍继续做的事情。

It's something that you can keep doing over and over again.

所以，认识到运气在你生活中扮演的角色，并且意识到那是你无法控制的，这一点总是非常重要的。

So taking that and being cognizant of the luck that played a role in your life that was outside of your control is always very important.

下一个问题。

Next question.

这个问题来自马塞洛。

This one's from Marcelo.

他说，从很简单的层面来看，历史上推动经济增长的一个关键因素似乎是人口增长。

He says, at a very simplified level, it seems that one of the key drivers of financial growth throughout history has been population growth.

然而，在现代历史上，全球人口可能首次开始下降。

For the first time in modern history, however, it appears that the global population may actually begin to decline.

我们应该预期这会如何长期影响经济呢？

How should we expect this to affect the economy over the long term?

它可能对房地产、股票和其他资产类别产生什么影响？

What impact could it have on real estate, equities, other asset classes?

你看。

Look.

在未来五十年里，所有将影响我们生活的重大新闻中，最大的那些是无法预知的。

Of all the biggest news stories that are gonna impact our lives over the next fifty years, the biggest ones are unknowable.

这就像珍珠港、911、新冠疫情一样，没人能预测。

It's the equivalent of the Pearl Harbor nine eleven COVID that nobody can predict.

我们生活中能预测到的最大的新闻，几乎已经板上钉钉的，就是生育率下降，人口结构衰退，这不仅发生在美国，而是全世界都在发生。

The biggest news story of our lives that we can predict that is almost written in stone at this point is the fall in fertility, the decline in demographics that is happening not only in The United States, but all over the world.

而且你看西方那些工业化国家，美国的情况几乎算是最好的了。

And if you look at the Western kind of industrialized world, The United States is almost in the best scenario.

再看看欧洲大部分国家、韩国、俄罗斯的人口结构，比我们糟糕多了，人口增长简直是断崖式下跌。

If you look at the demographics of most of Europe, South Korea, Russia, it is so much worse than what we have, and it is an absolute collapse in population growth over time.

关于这个，我想说几点。

Couple things I'll say about this.

第一，在美国，人口结构有个很有意思的趋势，确实生育率下降了，而且这些年降得很厉害。

One, in The United States, there's a very interesting trend in demographics where, yes, fertility is down and it's way down over the years.

但如果你仔细分析生育率下降的原因，很大一部分是因为15到19岁的年轻妈妈数量骤减。

But if you break apart where that decline in fertility comes from, a large percentage of it comes from a collapse in mothers who are aged 15 to 19.

过去四十年里，少女怀孕和少女妈妈的数量大幅下降。

Teenage pregnancy, teenage mothers has collapsed in the last forty years.

光是这一部分，也就是年轻妈妈数量的减少，就占了这些年整体生育率下降的大约三分之一。

That alone, that cohort of teenage mothers declining accounts for about a third of the fall in overall fertility over the years.

而且我不做任何评判，但我觉得大多数人都会说，这是好事。

And without passing any judgment, think most people would say, good.

青少年怀孕率下降是件好事。

The decline in teenage pregnancy is is a good thing.

当然，怀孕率下降的原因并不是因为他们买不起房子，或者担心气候变化，或者其他什么原因。

And of course, the the reason that there's a decline in that pregnancy is not because they can't afford homes or they're worried about climate change or whatever it might be.

而是因为避孕措施的普及和教育的提升。

It's because there's an increase in access in contraceptives and increased education.

但这只占了三分之一的原因。

Now that's only a third of it.

另外百分之七十是二十多岁和三十多岁的母亲生育率实际下降。

The other seventy percent is an actual decline of mothers who are in their twenties and thirties.

确实有下降，但我觉得这部分往往被忽视了。

There is a decline, but I think that section of it tends to go unnoticed.

现在整体生育率也在下降。

Now there is an overall decline as well.

问题是，这对经济有什么影响？

And the question is, what does that do to the economy?

要让经济长期增长，只有两条路。

There are two ways to grow any economy over time.

要么增加人口，要么提高生产力。

You increase the population or you increase the productivity.

让这些人变得更高效。

You make those people more productive.

所有经济增长都来自这里。

That's where all economic growth comes from.

在几乎整个人类历史中，这个方程式的第一部分，人口增长不仅不是问题，反而常常快得让人跟不上，这在很多历史时期正是贫困的根源。

For almost all of history, the first part of that equation, not only was it not a problem to grow the population, if anything, it was you were growing it at faster than you can keep up with, which for a lot of history was where a lot of poverty came from.

但就在过去二三十年，甚至可以说过去十年里，这部分几乎停滞了。

Now it's just been in the last twenty or thirty years, and you could say even in the last ten years, that that part of the equation virtually stopped.

美国的人口增长率，在过去一两百年里，通常是每年2%左右，有时甚至达到3%，而现在只有大约0.5%。

And population growth in The United States has historically for the last hundred, two hundred years been something like 2% per year, sometimes 3% per year, and now it's about a half of 1% per year.

用不了多久，就会持平，然后开始下降。

And before long, it'll be flat and then decline.

所以，经济增长的那一部分就停止了。

And so that whole section of economic growth stops.

到那时，所有的经济增长都依赖于生产力的提升。

And then so all economic growth at that point relies on productivity.

如果没有更多的人口，就需要让现有的人变得更高效，才能推动经济增长。

If you're not adding more people, you need to make the people who you have more productive in order to grow the economy.

好消息是，现在我们每天在新闻里看到什么，比以往任何时候都更让人热议？就是人工智能。

The good news is what do we have right now in the news every day that we can't stop talking about more than ever, AI.

如果说有哪项技术能比工业革命以来的任何技术都更能提升生产力，那就是人工智能。

And if there is a technology that has the ability to increase productivity more than any technology that maybe we've had since the industrial revolution, it's AI.

那么，人口下降会被生产力提升所抵消，这是否是一个充满希望的展望呢？

And so is that a hopeful outlook that the decline in population will be offset by a rise in productivity?

当然。

Sure.

这确实充满希望。

It's hopeful.

这一点完全没有保证。

It's not guaranteed in the slightest.

但如果让我看这两件事的净影响，我可能比几年前对人口增长下降对社会的影响没那么悲观了。

But if I were to look at the net impact of those two things, I'm probably less pessimistic on the impact that falling population growth will have on society than I was a couple years ago.

这不是必然的，但至少现在有机会去抵消一部分人口增长的下降。

It's not guaranteed, but at least there's a fighting chance now to offset some of that decline in population growth.

下一个问题。

Next question.

这是来自里奥斯的问题。

This is from Rios.

他说，我21岁，有远大的目标和梦想。

He says, I'm 21 years old and I have big goals and dreams.

我常常为了学习、读书和经营自己的事业而错过和朋友家人聚会的机会。

I tend to miss hanging out with friends and family to study and read books and work on my business.

社交媒体让我觉得自己在人生中落后了。

Social media has made me feel that I'm behind on life.

我知道拿自己和别人比是不对的，但把大部分甚至全部时间都花在工作、为家人和自己拼一个更好的未来上，这样明智吗？

I know it's not right to compare myself to other people, but is it wise to spend most of, if not all of my time working and hustling for a better future for my family and myself?

问得好。

Great question.

我想回答这个问题，是因为我觉得我在你这个年纪的时候，和你过着非常相似的生活。

The reason why I wanna answer this is because I felt like you and I lived very similar lives at that age.

我二十岁左右的时候，醒着的大部分时间都在工作、学习，努力往前赶。

When I was in my late teens, early twenties, I spent the vast majority of my waking hours working and studying and trying to get ahead.

这是我个人的经验之谈。

I say this from my experience.

我回想那些因为忙于学业和未来而错过的社交活动，有多少呢？

How much do I look back at that at the social interactions that I may have missed because I was working on building my education and future?

事后看来，我有多后悔呢？

How much of that do I do I regret in hindsight?

答案是：一点都不后悔。

And the answer is 0.0 regret.

我还想说一点，这非常……

And I would say this too, and this is a very...

每个人的性格也不同，但我那些相反的朋友，他们年轻时把时间都花在社交和玩乐上，现在到了四十多岁，有多少人后悔了，可能希望自己当初多花点时间学习、提升自己、在事业上更进一步？

Everyone has different personalities too, but how many of my friends who are the opposite, who spent their waking hours socializing and having a great time and doing things, how many of them, now that they're in their forties, they regret that and probably wish that they had spent more of their time learning, educating, getting ahead in their careers?

有不少。

Quite a few.

所以每个人在这件事上都不一样。

So everyone is different in this.

我觉得总的来说，如果做某件事让你觉得是在牺牲，那你可能就不该做。

I think overall, if it feels like a sacrifice when you're doing it, you probably shouldn't be doing it.

如果我在二十多岁时少学习、少读书、少努力，多和朋友出去玩，那对我来说才是牺牲。

If I had in my twenties stopped studying so much and stopped reading so much and stopped trying to learn so much and spent more time parting with my friends, that would have felt like the sacrifice.

那会……

That would...

那对我来说显然是不对的。

It would have felt obviously wrong to me.

我当时在做的事情，对我来说就是理所当然的。

I was doing the thing that felt obviously right to me.

我从来没有觉得那是牺牲。

It never felt like a sacrifice.

我觉得我那些爱玩的朋友也会这么说。

And I think my friends who were partying would have said the same thing.

如果他们花更多时间学习，少去玩，那对他们来说才是牺牲。

If they spent more time studying and learning and less time partying, that would have felt like a sacrifice.

那会让他们觉得不对劲。

It would have felt wrong to them.

大多数人只是在反映自己内在的性格。

Most people are just reflecting what their innate personality is within them.

所以如果你觉得这样做是对的，而且你能想到自己在为未来打拼，我觉得这没什么不对。

So if it feels right for you and you can think about the life that you're building for yourself, I don't think it's the wrong thing to do.

如果你觉得对，那可能就是你该做的事。

If it feels right, probably is the right thing for you to do.

好的。

Alright.

下一个问题，来自洛根。

Next question from Logan.

他问，你怎么看待网红的崛起以及他们对社会的影响？

He says, what do you think about the rise of influencers and their effect on society?

在我看来，他们跳点小舞或者在网上发点无聊内容就能赚大钱。

It seems to me like they are making astronomical amounts of money for doing little dances or making other silly content online.

这看起来是个很吸引人的职业道路，尤其是对年轻人来说，但似乎对整个社会几乎没什么价值。

It looks like an enticing career path, especially to young people, but it appears to provide little to no value to society as a whole.

关于这个，我有很多想法。

Lots of thoughts on this.

首先，如果你问现在大多数年轻人，他们长大后想做什么，最常见的回答就是当网红。

The first is if you ask most young people today what they want to be for their career, what do you wanna be when you grow up, the most common answer that they get is influencer.

而如果你在六十年代问同样的问题，他们会说想当宇航员。

And if you were to compare that to if you ask them in the nineteen sixties, they would have said astronaut.

如果问我小时候，他们会说投资银行家或者对冲基金经理之类的。

If you ask them when I was a kid, they would have said, investment banker or hedge fund manager or something like that.

可能十年前，是科技工作者、科技创业者。

Maybe ten years ago, it was tech worker, tech entrepreneur.

现在变成了网红。

Now it's influencer.

这对社会健康吗？

Is that healthy for society?

当然不健康。

Of course not.

当然不健康。

Of course not.

网红对社会造成的一个影响是，你看，我们一直都有在媒体上崇拜的人，为了娱乐或者获取信息。

One of the things that influencers has done to society is, look, we have always had people in media who we looked up to for entertainment or information.

这种情况一直存在，不管是报纸、广播，还是汤姆·布罗考和沃尔特·克朗凯特那个时代。

That has always existed, whether it was in the newspaper or the radio or Tom Brokaw and Walter Cronkite.

这些人一直都存在。

Those people have always existed.

但当我们知道那些人，比如沃尔特·克朗凯特这样的，是专业人士时，我们知道他们不一定和我们一样是普通人。

But when we knew that those people, the Walter Cronkites of the world, were professionals, we knew that they were not necessarily peers.

我们知道，不管出于什么原因，沃尔特·克朗凯特掌握的信息比我们多，而且他能以我们做不到的专业方式呈现出来。

We knew that for whatever reason, Walter Cronkite had more information than we did, and he was able to present it in a professional way that we could not.

所以这带来了一种信任感，因为你会想，我们知道他是谁。

And so there was a level of trust coming from that because you're like, we know who that is.

网红所做的一件事是，它利用了同样的动态，就是这个人有信息和见解，但因为不是专业人士，给人的印象是他们和我们一样是普通人。

One of the things that influencers has done is it takes the same dynamic of like, this is a person who has information and insight, but because they're not professionals, it gives the impression that they're peers.

如果他们是普通人，那就会觉得，嗯，我也应该能做到那样。

And if they're peers, it's like, well, I should be doing that too.

所以回到职业运动员的类比，如果你看到职业运动员的豪宅和生活方式，你知道你不应该过那样的生活。

And so back to like the professional athlete analogy, if you were to look at a professional athlete's amazing mansion in their lifestyle, you know that you should not be living that life.

他们和你不一样。

They're different than you.

他们在做你做不到的事情。

They're doing something you can't.

但如果你看到一个社交媒体网红过着看似风光的生活，然后你心里想，那应该是我。

But if you see a social media influencer living what looks like a big life, and then you think to yourself, that should be me.

他们是我的同龄人。

They're a peer of mine.

我也应该那样。

I should be doing that too.

至少人们只是对自己的生活感到难过。

At least people just feeling bad about their own lives.

你在问题中提到，他们似乎都赚了很多钱。

Now you mentioned something in the question which is it seems like they're all making a ton of money.

让我打消你这个念头。

Let me disabuse you of that thought.

不，他们并没有。

No, they are not.

只有不到百分之一的极小一部分人真正赚到了钱，而赚大钱的人更是少到几乎可以忽略不计。

A tiny microscopic fraction of 1% is making any money and an even much smaller percentage that rounds to zero is making lots of money doing it.

不过，这也不是全是坏事。

Now it's not all bad.

我觉得网红带来的一个好处是，它让那些偶尔有幽默感或独到见解的人有了出头之日。

I think one of the good things that influencers has done, it is it's given rise to people who have humor or insight at a very low frequency.

要成为专业的脱口秀演员、音乐人或者政治评论员，你需要每天都有见解和热点评论。

Now to be a professional stand up musician or comedian or political commentator, you need to have insight and hot takes every day.

你需要每天都有真本事，但大多数人做不到，所以他们没法靠评论或喜剧谋生。

You need to have skill every single day, but most people don't have that, so they have no career as a commentator or a comedian.

他们做不到，但有些人一年能有一两次绝妙的想法或特别搞笑的段子，这些人现在就能火起来。

They can't do it, but some people get a great idea or a very funny joke once or twice a year, and those are the people who can now go viral.

在以前的时代，这些人会被遗忘，根本没人注意到，因为他们不够搞笑，没法每晚都在舞台上逗乐观众。

People who in any other era would have been forgotten and never noticed because they're not funny enough to be funny every single night on stage.

他们一年只搞笑两次。

They're only funny twice a year.

但现在，如果他们一年搞笑两次，并且发到TikTok或Instagram上，真的能有几亿人看到。

But now if they're funny twice a year and you post it on TikTok or Instagram, literally hundreds of millions of people can watch it.

我觉得这很棒。

I think that's great.

它让很多以前只有极少数拥有非凡技能的人才能享受的东西变得大众化了，也让更多人意识到，没错，世界上有些人确实非常有才华。

It has democratized a lot of things that used to be reserved for only a very small subset of people who had extraordinary skill, and it has given more spotlight to the idea that yes, some people in the world are extremely talented.

但大多数人，甚至可以说几乎所有人，偶尔都会有点才华。

But most people, if not everyone in the world is pretty talented once in a while.

我觉得这对社会其实有积极的影响。

I think that's actually a positive impact on society.

好了，这周我推荐什么呢？

Alright, what am I recommending this week?

我听了一个播客。

I listened to a podcast.

上周我在达拉斯机场被困，天气不好，航班延误，我听了Acquired播客讲Vanguard历史的节目。

I was stuck in the Dallas Airport with lots of bad weather and delays last week, and I listened to the acquired podcast on the history of Vanguard.

这其实是我第二次听了。

It's actually the second time I've listened to it.

我强烈推荐。

I cannot recommend it enough.

这是一个三个半小时的播客，讲的是先锋集团低成本指数基金的历史，它对散户投资者的积极影响可能比现代投资史上任何其他事情都要大。

It's a three and a half hour podcast on the history of the Vanguard Group low cost index funds that has probably done more positive impact for retail investors than anything else in the history of modern investing.

描述《Acquired》这个播客最好的方式就是，它其实不算是播客。

And the best way to to describe the podcast acquired is that it's not really a podcast.

它是一部音频纪录片。

It's an audio documentary.

这两者之间有很大的区别。

There's Like, a big difference between the two.

它做得太好了，研究得也太深入了，它展示了先锋集团的历史中有多少是未曾预料到的，有多少是纯属偶然，还有多少是约翰·博格尔近乎圣人的品质，他创办了这家公司，是少数几位企业家之一，当然也是少数几位金融企业家之一，他说，与其自己发财，不如为别人降低费用，而他确实做到了。

It is so well done and so well researched, and it goes to show how much of the history of Vanguard was not really foreseen of what impact it was gonna have, how much of it was purely by accident, and how much of it was the near sainthood of John Bogle who started the company and is one of the only entrepreneurs and certainly one of only financial entrepreneurs who said, rather than getting rich myself, I want to lower fees for other people, which is effectively what he did.

他自己也做得很好。

He still did great for himself.

他并没有过贫穷的生活，但这是一个把权力还给个人投资者、降低成本而不是为自己攫取更多利润的精彩故事。

Did not live a life of poverty, but it's an amazing story of giving the power back to the individual investors and lowering costs versus taking more of the profits for himself.

这太迷人了。

It's fascinating.

强烈推荐你去读一读。

Highly recommend you read it.

这就是本周的内容，我们下次再见。

And that's it for this week, and we'll see you next time.