没有什么是好得或坏得长久的

投资成功很少是因为你比别人懂得更多。

Success in investing is rarely about knowing more than everyone else.

更多时候，关键在于当不确定性上升时，避免情绪化的错误。

More often, it's about avoiding emotional mistakes when uncertainty rises.

戴维斯投资顾问公司也认同这一理念。

Davis Advisors shares that philosophy.

他们以研究驱动的主动管理投资组合，秉持长期视角，旨在帮助投资者在市场周期中参与持久企业的增长。

Their research driven active portfolios are managed with a long term perspective designed to help investors participate in the growth of durable businesses across market cycles.

更多信息请访问davisadvisors.com。

Learn more at davisadvisors.com.

投资前，您应仔细考虑投资目标、风险、费用和开支。

Before investing, you should carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses.

招股说明书或适用的ADV表格包含这些及其他信息。

The prospectus or Form ADV, as applicable, contains this and other information.

您可拨打1802792279获取最新的招股说明书或ADV表格。

You can obtain a current prospectus or Form ADV by calling 1802792279.

投资有风险，包括可能损失本金。

Investing involves risks, including possible loss of principal.

好的。

Alright.

欢迎回来。

Welcome back.

今天在回答你们的问题之前，我想谈一个金融领域非常重要的理念，不管是做生意还是个人理财都适用，那就是要能识别出什么时候情况异常地好，并且假设这种情况不会持续，然后采取相应的行动。

What I want to talk about today before I get into your questions is a really important idea in finance, whether it's in business or for personal finances, which is the idea of being able to recognize when things are abnormally good and assuming that they will not last and taking actions that reflect the idea that they will not last.

我想借用自然界的一个小例子，在资源分配这类社会情境下，自然界通常比人类做得更好。

And I wanna use a little idea, from nature that usually does a better job than humans in these kind of social conditions of allocating resources.

我现在给你们看的这个小可爱叫鼠兔。

This little handsome fella that I'm showing you right here is called a pika.

这种像老鼠一样的小家伙，住在山上。

This little mouse like thing that lives up in the mountains.

挺可爱的小家伙。

Cute little guy.

而且鼠兔有一个很特别的特点，就是和很多住在山里的哺乳动物不一样，它们不冬眠。

And picas have a very unique trait, which is unlike a lot of their, fellow mammals that live up in the mountains, they do not hibernate.

它们在寒冷的冬天里一直活着，所以整个冬天都需要食物，即使冬天不生长它们吃的草、谷物和种子之类的东西。

They're alive all winter in the freezing cold winter, and so they need food all winter, even when the winter is not growing the food that they eat, grasses and grains and seeds and things like that.

那夏天食物到处都是的时候，它们会怎么做呢？

And so what does it do during the summer when there's food everywhere?

它们会收集起来，储存起来。

It collects it and it saves it.

就像你在这里看到的，它们会堆起巨大的食物堆，足够撑过整个冬天。

And as you can see here, it creates these giant piles of food that will last it all winter.

当然，如果夏天的时候它们把能找到的东西都吃光，那夏天确实会吃得饱饱的，开个大派对，但到了十二月就会饿死。

Now, of course, if during the summer months, it ate everything that it could find, it would be stuffed and full and have a grand old party during the summer, and it would starve by December.

所以它们不会那样做。

And so it doesn't do that.

它们不会以为好日子会一直持续下去。

It doesn't assume the good times last forever.

它会囤很多食物，然后存起来。

It stocks a lot of it aside, and it saves it.

这个道理很简单，就是未雨绸缪，但令人惊讶的是，人类很少这么做，他们更擅长告诉自己好日子会一直持续下去。

Now that is so simple, the idea of saving for a rainy day, but it's astounding how often you don't see that behavior among humans that are much better at telling themselves a story that the good times will last forever.

我几年前看过一项研究。

I saw the study a couple years ago.

我是在为这期播客做研究的时候翻出来的。

I just pulled it up when I was researching for this podcast.

这项研究针对的是中小型企业，也就是私营企业，不是上市公司，时间跨度从七十年代到二十一世纪头十年。

It was a study of small and medium sized businesses, private businesses, not public companies, from the nineteen seventies through the early twenty tens.

差不多四十年时间，研究了三千多家倒闭或破产的企业，还查看了它们的纳税申报表。

So a good, like, forty year period when it studied over 3,000 businesses that failed, that went bankrupt, and it looked through their tax returns.

所以它很清楚这些企业每年的盈亏情况。

So it had a really good idea of how much profit and loss those businesses had every year.

研究结果显示，大多数倒闭的企业，不一定是因为盈利能力不够。

And what it showed is that the majority of businesses that failed, it wasn't necessarily that they weren't profitable enough.

问题在于，在大多数企业盈利的那些年里，他们把所有的利润都从公司里抽走了。

It was that during the profitable years that most of them had, they extracted all the profits out of the company.

然后到了不景气的年份，他们就什么都没剩下了。

And then during the bad years, they had nothing left.

所以，举个例子，虽然这是我编的，但这就是那项研究想表达的意思。

And so, for example, just making this up, but this is the idea that it was presenting.

假设一家企业某年赚了10万美元的利润，然后它把这笔利润全部抽走了。

You had a business that would earn a $100,000 in profit during one year, and it took that profit and extracted it.

老板们就拿去享受生活了。

And the owners went and had their nice life.

结果第二年，他们亏了3万美元。

And then the next year, they lost $30,000.

因为他们在抽走所有钱之后才亏损，所以公司里什么都没剩下，就破产了。

And because they lost it after they extracted all the money, there was nothing left and the business was bankrupt.

并不是说这家企业长期来看不够盈利。

It was not that the business was not profitable enough over time.

是的。

It was.

就是说他们假装撑过去了。

It was that they pretended through.

不。

No.

这不是性格缺陷。

This is not a character flaw.

我觉得这是很常见的事情。

Think this is a very common thing to do.

但他们以为那些好日子、好年头会永远持续下去，结果对坏年头完全没有准备。

But they assume those good times, those good years would last forever, and they were completely unprepared for the bad years.

你该问的问题不是这些好日子能持续多久。

The question that you want to ask is not how long these good times will last.

你该问的问题是，我现在的做法是不是需要这些好日子永远持续下去？

The question you want to ask is, am I taking actions that require these good times to last forever?

这不仅仅是小本生意的问题。

And that's not just mom and pop businesses.

一些由世界上最聪明、最有教养的企业管理者经营的大公司也会这样做。

Some of the biggest companies run by what you would assume would be some of the smartest and most educated business managers in the world do this as well.

我给你举一个非常极端的例子。

I'll give you a very extreme example of this.

花旗集团，这家大型银行，大约在十五年前金融危机之前，我认为它是世界上最大的公司之一。

Citigroup, the huge bank, which was, I think, one of the largest companies in the world about fifteen or so years ago before the financial crisis.

在金融危机前的十年里，花旗集团回购了630亿美元的股票。

In the ten years before the financial crisis, Citigroup repurchased $63,000,000,000 of its stock.

当你回购股票时，基本上就是把钱还给股东，把钱交给公司的所有者。

Now when you repurchase stock, it's basically giving the money back to shareholders, giving the money to the owners of the company.

公司是在说，我们赚了很多利润，但业务中不需要这些钱。

The company is saying, we earned a ton of profit that we don't need in the business.

嘿，股东们。

Hey, shareholders.

这些钱现在是你们的了。

This is for you now.

他们把利润返还给了股东。

They're giving it back to the shareholders.

然后金融危机来了，他们需要政府450亿美元的救助。

And then when the financial crisis came, they needed a $45,000,000,000 bailout from the government.

正是这笔救助让他们在金融危机中活了下来。

That's what kept them alive during the financial crisis.

所以你想一想。

And so you think about that.

十年间，他们通过股票回购向股东返还了630亿美元。

In ten years, it gave $63,000,000,000 for share repurchases back to shareholders.

然后在危机期间，出现了450亿美元的资金缺口。

And then during the crisis, there was a $45,000,000,000 shortfall.

所以对于像花旗这样的公司来说，并不是业务盈利不足，无法应对这些风险。

And so so for something like Citigroup, it wasn't that the business was not profitable enough to handle those risks.

确实如此。

It absolutely was.

只是他们以为好日子会永远持续下去。

It was just that they assumed the good times would last forever.

他们把那些自认为是多余的钱、多余的利润都处理掉了。

They got rid of all that what they thought was excess money, excess profits.

然后当风险来临时，他们什么都没有了。

And then when the risk hit, they had nothing left to show for it.

所以，再说一次，好日子的危险不在于它们最终会结束。

And so, again, the danger of good times is not that they will eventually end.

而在于人们认为好日子会变成常态，或者不仅仅是常态。

It's that people assume the good times become normal or not just normal.

他们认为好日子会永远持续下去。

They assume the good times become permanent.

个人也会这样。

And individuals do this too.

他们一直这样。

They do it all the time.

如果你正在听这个节目，并且你说，我有应急基金。

And if you're listening to this and you say, I have an emergency fund.

我已经准备好了。

I'm prepared for it.

很好。

Great.

但拥有应急基金和做好准备，与心理上做好准备，还是有区别的。

There's also a difference between having an emergency fund and preparing for it and being psychologically prepared for it.

我觉得很多人，在个人生活、股市、经济中经历经济波动时，完全措手不及。

I think a lot of people, they experience economic volatility in their personal life, in the stock market, in the economy, are completely taken off guard.

他们心里隐隐觉得这种事根本不会发生。

And they kind of implicitly assume this never would have happened.

或者也许这种事发生在别人身上，但不会发生在自己身上。

Or maybe it happens to other people, but not to them.

所以很多时候，当我在这个播客里回答这些问题时，你会问一些类似“经济衰退时会发生什么”或者“熊市来了你会怎么做”这样的问题。

And so a lot of times when I'm answering these questions on this podcast and you will ask some version of what happens when there's a recession, what are you going to do when there's a bear market, some version of that question.

通常，我的回答都是那种轻描淡写的，比如“没什么大不了的”。

Usually, my answer is some kind of a flippant, not much.

我基本上不会做什么。

I won't do much of anything.

我完全预料到这种情况会发生在我个人身上，也会发生在经济中的所有人身上。

I fully expect it to happen to me personally and for all of us throughout the economy.

而且，有几个心理上的怪癖会让你以为好日子会永远持续下去。

And there's a couple of psychological quirks that cause you to assume the good times will last forever.

第一，我很喜欢《华尔街日报》的杰森·茨威格说过的一句话。

One, I love this quote from Jason Zwag of The Wall Street Journal.

他写道：“正确是保持正确的敌人，因为它会让你忘记世界是如何运作的。”

He writes, being right is the enemy of staying right because it leads you to forget how the way the world works.

所以，也许在你的个人工作中，你得到了一个大晋升。

So maybe in your personal job, you get a big promotion.

你会觉得自己现在正处在上升期。

You assume that you're now on the upward trajectory.

你可以稍微退一步想想。

You can take a step back.

你不需要再像以前那样拼命努力了。

You don't have to have the hard work that brought you there.

比如，你会给自己松绑，让自己放松一下之类的。

Like, you're giving yourself permission to chill out and whatnot.

而正是那些让你成功的特质，现在却不再适用了。

And then the traits that led you to being right have now been removed.

所以说，成功往往是保持成功的大敌。

And so being right is the enemy of staying right.

我觉得很多时候，人们会把暂时的趋势误当成永久的优势。

I think there's a lot of times when people mistake a temporary trend for a permanent advantage.

所以你会经历像房地产泡沫或者股市繁荣这样的时期，人们把两三年的上涨行情当作常态，甚至更糟糕的是，他们把这归因于自己有多聪明、作为投资者有多睿智。

And so you go through periods like the housing bubble or stock market booms when people associate two or three years of a rising market with this is just how the way things are or even worse, they mistake two or three years of a rising market with look at how intelligent I am and look at how smart I am as investor.

所以他们只是把趋势误认为是优势。

And so they're just mistaking a trend for an advantage.

所有这些都归结于金融中的一种心理特征，那就是要认识到事情异常好时，并说服自己它们不会永远持续下去。

And so all those fall under this psychological trait in finance of recognizing when things are abnormally good and assuming, convincing yourselves that they will not last forever.

这很难做到，因为没有人愿意承认未来会有多艰难，会有多糟糕，或者自己将来会有多失败。

It's a very difficult thing to do because no one wants to admit how things are gonna be hard in the future or how bad they're gonna be or how much they're personally gonna fail in the future.

但当你认识到生活的波动性和周期性时，这就会成为最重要的金融技能之一。

But when you just recognize the volatility of life, the cyclicality of life, it is one of the most important financial skills that exists.

接下来回答你们的一些问题，请继续把更多问题发送到pod@longtermwords.com。

To get into some of your questions, and please send me more of them at pod@longtermwords.com.

在回答第一个问题之前，我想先回应一下你们寄来的问题，我非常喜欢和珍视这些问题，也希望收到更多。

Before I get into this first question, I wanna answer two things about the questions that you send me, which I love and adore and want more of them.

我收到的最常见的问题之一就是：为什么你不同意我的个人世界观？

Two of the most common questions that I get are, why don't you agree with my personal worldview?

这个问题我经常被问到，我一点也不觉得被冒犯。

That's a question that I get a lot, and I'm not offended by that whatsoever.

我觉得这很有意思，而且这正好反映了我们节目里经常聊到的那个观点，就是每个人都是自己世界、自己经历、自己那一代人和自己人生见闻的产物。

I think it's fascinating, and it is just a reflection of what we've talked about a lot on this show, which is that everyone is a product of their own world and their own experiences and their own generation and what they've seen in life.

很多时候，当你看到有人和你的世界观不完全一致时，我觉得你该问的问题不是“你为什么不认同我？”

And oftentimes, when you see someone who doesn't perfectly align with your own worldviews, the question that I think you should be asking is not why don't you agree with me?

而是“你经历了什么，让你相信那个，而不是我相信的这个？”

It's what have you experienced that leads you to believe that rather than this thing that I believe?

很多你的问题都是这样。

That's a lot of your questions.

还有一个问题更针对节目本身，就是有人问：摩根，你能把节目做长一点吗？

Another question that I got that's a little more specific to the show is, Morgan, can you make the show longer?

现在只有二十分钟。

It's only twenty minutes.

大多数播客都比这长得多。

Most podcasts are a lot longer than that.

我的回答是：非常感谢。

And my answer is thank you very much.

不。

No.

我来告诉你为什么。

And I'll tell you why.

很多内容，你在书里经常看到，但在所有形式的内容里，人们常常把长度和深度挂钩，但往往并不是这样。

So much content you see this a lot in books, but in all forms of content is that people associate length with insight, and it's often just not the case.

而且，如果你硬要让人拉长内容，不管是作者、播客还是其他什么，你并不会增加深度。

And often, if you try to force somebody into length, an author or a podcast or whoever it might be, you're not gonna increase the insight.

你只会增加更多的废话或者填充内容。

You're just gonna increase the amount of rambling or just fluff that gets in there.

我并不是说我自己做得完美，但我绝不会为了长度而追求长度。

Now I don't I don't think I do a perfect job of that, but I'm never gonna target length for the sake of length.

如果我觉得二十分钟能讲清楚一个不错的观点，我就只给你这些。

If I feel like I can get a decent idea out in twenty minutes, that's all I'm gonna give you.

好了。

Alright.

第一个问题。

First question.

这个问题来自Gabe，他问：在好日子里，你怎么知道你是真的在建立韧性，还是仅仅在依赖有利条件？

This one's from Gabe who asks, during good times, how can you tell whether you're building genuine resilience or merely becoming dependent on favorable conditions?

这个问题跟我们刚才在开头聊的非常相关。

That question is very much related to what we just talked about in the intro.

我觉得有一种方法可以真正衡量你是否在这么做，是真正在建立长期韧性，还是只是在随波逐流，享受暂时的稳定。

I think there's one way to actually measure whether you're doing this, whether you're actually building long term resilience or you're just going along with temporary stability.

那就是，我觉得，你生活中拥有的稳定资产的数量。

And that is, I think, the amount of stabilizing assets that you have in your life.

你持有的现金、债券，那些非风险资产，用来保护和稳定的。

The cash that you hold, the bonds that you hold, kind of the nonrisk assets that you have for protection, for stability.

在好日子里，应该感觉这些资产太多了。

During good times, it should feel like it's too much.

应该感觉有点过度。

It should feel excessive.

你应该有点不好意思告诉别人你资产中现金、债券、黄金或房地产的比例，不管你怎么配置。

You should be a little bit embarrassed to tell people what percentage of your assets you have in cash or bonds or gold or real estate, however you wanna do that.

应该感觉有点过度。

It should feel a little bit excessive.

如果感觉不过度，那么你很可能没有为那些你无法预见或不愿承认的风险做好准备。

If it doesn't feel excessive, the odds that you are not prepared for the risks that you cannot envision or don't wanna admit is a risk in your life are very high.

所以你会听到有些人很自豪地说他们的应急基金能覆盖两个月的开支，比如说。

And so you hear people who will be very proud of their emergency fund that can cover two months of their expenses, let's say.

那很好。

And great.

你做得不错。

You've done a good job.

你存了一点钱。

You've saved a little bit.

那很棒。

That's awesome.

在经济大衰退中，有多少人会失业超过两个月？

How many people in a deep recession will be unemployed for more than two months?

答案是相当多的人。

And the answer is quite a bit.

你存的钱应该让你觉得有点疯狂。

The amount that you save should feel a little bit crazy.

不是完全疯狂。

Not completely crazy.

凡事都要有个平衡。

There's always a balance to it.

但多年来，我一直都在谈论我持有的现金量。

But I've talked about this for years with the amount of cash that I hold.

这个数字高得让别人都皱眉。

It makes other people wince how high it is.

可能占到15%到25%。

It might be 15 to 25%.

假设就在这个范围内。

Let's say it's in that range.

很多人会说这太疯狂了。

And a lot of people will say that's crazy.

每当我听到这种反应，我反而觉得这正是我想要的。

And whenever I hear that, I'm kind of like, that's the response that I want.

因为在下一场大灾难来临时，无论是珍珠港事件、911、新冠疫情，还是其他什么，我可能真的有机会挺过去。

Because during the next big catastrophe, whatever it might be, the equivalent of Pearl Harbor or nine eleven or COVID or whatever it might bring, then I might actually have a chance of enduring it.

就像你需要极度的安全来应对极度的风险。

Like you need crazy safety to endure crazy risks.

如果你稍微研究一下长期历史，你就会知道，历史就是一连串突如其来的疯狂风险。

And if you make yourself a little bit of a student of long term history, you know that what it is is a continuous chain of crazy out of the blue risks.

所以，Gabe，这就是我的答案。

And so, Gabe, that's my answer.

相对于你的净资产来说，这个比例应该让人觉得有点过高。

It should feel a little bit excessive when you're measuring it relative to your net worth.

下一个问题。

Next question.

这个问题来自Gabby。

This one's from Gabby.

她说，我注意到，随着经验越来越丰富，你在工作和生活中就越容易被自己的偏见所束缚。

She says, I've noticed that the more experience you gain, the more hostage you become to your own biases, both at work and in personal life.

你是怎么处理自己的偏见的？

How do you deal with yours?

我自己的个人偏见。

My own personal biases.

Gabby，我觉得没有人能完全做到这一点，因为从定义上讲，你亲身经历过的，就是你最相信的。

Gabby, nobody, I think nobody is perfect at this because by definition, what you've experienced firsthand is what you believe the most.

你可以试着去理解别人的观点和他们的经历，但没有什么比亲眼所见、亲耳所闻更有说服力了。

And you can try to be empathetic with other people's views and what they've experienced, but nothing is gonna be more persuasive than what you have seen with your own eyes and heard with your own ears.

所以，尽管做得不够完美，我一直在尝试的是，多花时间和那些跟我经历不同的人在一起——不同年代、不同国家、不同文化、不同社会经济背景、不同职业的人——而不是只待在自己的小圈子里。

And so what I have tried to do, even though it is imperfect, is spend more time with people who have been in different situations than I have, different generations, different countries, different cultures, different social economic groups, different professions than I do with people inside of my own bubble.

即使你不是把大部分时间花在和与你非常不同的人相处上，意识到你能从那些人身上学到的东西比从你自己圈子里的人、你自己的公司、你自己的行业、你自己的同龄人、你自己的家乡那里学到的更多，这一点非常重要。

Even if you're not spending the majority of your time with people who are very different than you, realizing that you can learn more from those people than you will people within your own bubble, your own company, your own industry, your own generation, your own town is really important.

我从不住在美国的人那里学到了更多关于通货膨胀的知识，因为大多数其他国家经历的通货膨胀比我们严重得多。

I've learned more about inflation by people who don't live in America because most other countries have dealt with more inflation than we have.

我从生活在拉丁美洲的人那里学到了更多关于金融危机的知识，因为他们经历的金融危机比我们多得多。

I've learned more about financial crises from people who live in, say, Latin America because they've dealt with way more of them than we have.

我从我这一代人之外的人那里学到了投资股市的风险，因为他们经历过比我们更深的熊市。

I've learned about the risks of investing in the stock market from people outside of my generation who experience deeper bear markets than we have.

再说一次，在这种情况下，同理心永远不可能做到完美。

And again, empathy is never perfect in this situation.

但是，意识到我的信念是由我的经历塑造的，而唯一能拓宽它的方法就是敞开心扉，去接受那些你未曾经历过的其他可能性，我认为这是唯一的办法。

But realizing that my beliefs are shaped by what I've experienced and the only way to increase that is to open your mind to other possibilities that you haven't experienced, I think is the only way that you can do it.

好了。

Alright.

下一个问题。

Next question.

这个问题来自Kong，他问：你觉得未来十年或二十年，职业体育会不会像蓝领工作那样，也被AI颠覆或取代？

This one's from Kong who says, do you think that in the next ten or twenty years, professional sports could also be disrupted or replaced by AI in the same way we're seeing with blue collar jobs?

这个问题挺有意思的，因为很多人听到后会想：足球和篮球怎么可能被AI取代呢？

It's an interesting question because I think a lot of people will hear that and say, what do you think football and basketball can be replaced by AI?

我跟你讲一个我和我十岁儿子的经历，他玩《Madden NFL》这个橄榄球电子游戏。

I'll tell you an experience that I've had with my 10 year old son who plays Madden NFL video game.

圣诞节的时候，我父母，也就是我儿子的爷爷奶奶，过来看他玩。他们真的分不清游戏画面和真实比赛的区别。

And my parents, my son's grandparents, were over, during Christmas watching him play, and my parents genuinely could not tell the difference between the Madden video game and real life.

他们以为他在看真实的NFL比赛。

They thought he was watching a real NFL game.

如果你不了解电子游戏从《吃豆人》时代以来进步有多大，你可能不知道现在游戏画面有多逼真。

That's how good it's become if you're not familiar with how good video games have become since the days of Pac Man.

所以，问这样的问题并不疯狂：像这样的东西能不能取代真实的体育比赛？你可以做出最精彩的NFL比赛、NBA比赛，然后观看，虽然全是假的，但你乐在其中。

And so it's not a crazy question to ask, could something like that replace real sports where you have you can make the greatest NFL game, NBA game, and watch it, and it's all fake, but you're enjoying it.

这个想法并不疯狂。

That's not a crazy proposition.

但我认为这未必会发生。

Here's why I don't think it will necessarily happen.

我给你举个更现代、更贴近当下的例子。

I'll give you the more modern, current example of this.

谷歌有一款AI产品叫NotebookLM，你可以用它来制作自定义播客。

Google has an AI product called NotebookLM, and what you can do with NotebookLM is create a custom podcast.

你可以说，我想听一个关于这个主题的播客。

You can say, I wanna listen to a podcast about this topic.

你可以上传一篇科学论文，然后说，用播客的形式给我解释一下。

You can upload a scientific paper and say, explain this to me in a podcast.

它制作合成播客的能力简直不可思议，无论你想听什么主题，它都能做得非常好。

And it is so unbelievably good at making a synthetic podcast about any topic that you want.

它有两个主持人，会就你能想到的任何话题进行对话。

It has two hosts that talk to each other about any topic you can possibly imagine.

我记得两年前第一次看到这个功能时，心想，播客这下完了。

And I remember when I first saw this two years ago thinking that's the end of podcasts.

就是说，如果AI机器人能完美流畅地讨论任何你想聊的话题，那谁还会去听一个真人磕磕绊绊地讲呢？

Like, why would anyone listen to a human stumble their way through imperfectly if an AI bot can perfectly seamlessly discuss any topic that you want?

我当时就是这么想的。

That was my thought.

那从那时起，我自己听过多少期NotebookLM的播客呢？

And how many Notebook LN podcasts have I personally listened to since then?

答案是零。

And the answer is zero.

而且我也不知道以后会不会听。

And I don't know if I ever will.

看它怎么运作确实是个很酷的炫技，但我觉得我不会真的去用，因为无论是读书还是听播客，我真正想要的是去理解一个同样在生活里跌跌撞撞的普通人。

It was a really cool party trick to watch how it works, but I don't think I'll actually do it because what I want out of learning, whether it's a book or a podcast, is to try to empathize with a fellow human working their way imperfectly through their own imperfect life.

我想要的是原汁原味，包括那些不完美。

I want warts and all.

我想要所有的挑战，所有的一切，去试着理解那个人。

I want all of the challenges, everything to try to empathize with that person.

而且我觉得大多数人也都想要这样。

And I think most people want that, too.

将来会不会有一本由AI写的畅销书？

Will there ever be a best selling book written by AI?

可能会有，但我觉得不会成为主流。

Probably, but I don't think it'll be mainstream.

我觉得未来几十年，人类还是会继续写书。

I think humans will still be writing books for decades.

我这是在为自己说话吗？

Am I talking my own book there?

好吧。

Okay.

也许吧。

Maybe.

播客也一样，电视节目也一样，我觉得体育也是一样。

Same for podcasts, same for TV shows, and I think same for sports.

人们想要的并不一定是学习或者观看体育娱乐。

What people want is not necessarily learning or watching the entertainment of sports.

而是看别人踢足球、打篮球或打棒球，然后感叹：我真不敢相信，一个人类同胞能做到这样。

It's to watch someone play football or basketball or baseball and say, I can't believe they can a fellow human can do that.

我永远做不到那样。

I could never do that.

这就是这些东西的价值所在。

That's the value of all of that stuff.

所以AI会取代很多东西。

And so AI will replace a lot.

也会增强很多东西。

It will enhance a lot.

我不认为它能完全替代人们对艺术的期待，那就是与他人共情。

I don't think it's ever gonna be a full substitute for what so many people want out of art, which is empathizing with somebody else.

好的。

Alright.

下一个问题来自杰里迈亚。

Next question from Jeremiah.

他说，好像每个理财播客都在追踪自己的净资产。

He says, it seems like every financial podcast tracks their net worth.

我注意到这让我很抓狂，我老盯着这个数字，我最好还是别追踪了。

I noticed it makes me crazy, and I obsess over this number, and I'm better not even tracking it.

你怎么看？

What are your thoughts?

杰里迈亚，关于追踪和过度关注净资产这个普遍想法，我大概从17岁左右起，就几乎精确到每一块钱都知道自己的净资产。

Jeremiah, on the general idea of tracking and obsessing over your net worth, I've known my net worth down to nearly the dollar, let's say, since I've been, I don't know, 17 years old, something like that.

我追踪它，可以说有点痴迷。

I track it, you might say obsessively.

我觉得追踪它的涨跌是件有趣的事。

I think it's a fun thing to track up and down.

你可以把这一切都拿走。

You can take all of it.

比起你有多少钱，更重要的是你需要多少钱。

More important than how much money you have is how much money that you need.

所以我更喜欢的一个更好的指标是净资产除以你的年度支出。

And so the better number that I like is kind of net worth divided by your annual expenses.

净资产除以你的开销。

Net worth divided by your burn.

与其追踪你的净资产，不如想想：靠我的净资产我能撑多久？

Rather than tracking your net worth, how long could I last off my net worth?

那才是更重要的数字。

That's a more important number.

你也会对这个数字着迷的。

And you become obsessed with that number too.

我觉得这个数字更能激励人，因为它真正让你明白你追求财富的目的是什么，那就是独立。

I think it's way more motivating because it really puts into context the idea of what I think you want wealth for, which is independence.

而且它让你不再纠结于为什么你想要更多钱。

And it gets away from the idea that why do you want more money?

为了拥有更多。

To have more.

就是，就是，只是想看着数字往上涨。

Like like, the idea is just to watch the number go up.

如果你只盯着净资产，那才是重要的。

If you're just obsessed with net worth, that's what's important.

你会说，我想要一百万美元。

You say, I I want a million dollars.

我想要一千万美元。

I want $10,000,000.

我想要十亿美元。

I want a billion dollars.

可是你看，有些拥有十亿美元的人，他们的生活方式、品味和负担太昂贵了，所以那笔钱对他们来说并不算多。

Well, look, there are people who have a billion dollars who have such an expensive lifestyle and tastes and obligations that it's not that much money for them.

而有些人的净资产只有一万美元，但他们已经拥有了很长时间所需的一切，还有介于两者之间的各种情况。

And there's people whose net worth is $10,000, and they have all that they will need for a very long period of time and everything in between.

所以别太在意你的净资产。

So don't obsess over your net worth.

要在意的是你的净资产能为你做什么。

Obsess over what your net worth is able to do for you.

好的。

All right.

下一个问题。

Next question.

这个问题来自E，他说有一个领域，美国人明显比世界其他地方更不乐观，那就是A。

This one's from E, who says one area where Americans are decidedly less optimistic than the rest of the world is A.

大多数民意调查显示，美国人对此的担忧程度远高于其他国家。

I, with most opinion polls showing that Americans are significantly more worried about it than other countries.

你觉得这是为什么？

Why do you think this is?

我听过一个解释，说是因为大多数美国人工智能公司都想竞相实现超级智能。

I've heard one theory for why this is, which is that most American AI companies wanna race towards superintelligence.

他们想造一个比任何人都聪明的机器人，OpenAI和Anthropic都是这样。

They wanna create a bot that is smarter than any human, open AI, and anthropic.

这基本上就是他们的目标。

That's by and large their goal.

而很多其他国家，特别是中国，发展AI的方式更实际，主要是让工人、工厂和企业提高生产力。

Whereas a lot of other countries, particularly China, are developing AI in a more practical way of making workers and factories and businesses more productive.

所以我们是想要造一个超级智能的AI神。

So we wanna create an AI super intelligent god.

他们想要更好的软件来运行工厂里的机器人。

They want better software to run their robots in their factories.

所以在这种情况下，他们的发展确实令人兴奋。

And so in that situation, theirs is really exciting.

我们的则有点吓人。

Ours is a little bit more terrifying.

这是其中一个解释。

That's one theory for it.

但我觉得更好的解释是，不管是AI还是其他话题，人们并不是用分析的方式来看待风险的，不是看看发生了什么、看看数字、处理一下数据，然后得出结论。

But I think a better explanation for this is that whether it's AI or any other topic, people do not think about risk in an analytical way where you just look at what's happening, you look at the numbers, you crunch the data, and you come up with a conclusion.

没有人那样想风险。

Nobody thinks about risk that way.

他们想认为自己是这样想的。

They wanna think they think of it like that.

但大多数人是从文化角度看待风险的。

But most people think about risk in a cultural way.

你觉得什么有风险、你愿意怎么应对那个风险、你怎么保护自己，这些都深受你读过的内容、你交谈过的人、还有现在你的社交媒体算法的影响，所有这些因素。

And everything that you think is risky and what you are willing to do about that risk and how you try to protect yourself is heavily influenced by what you've read, who you've talked to, your social media algorithm these days, all of these things.

这不是分析性的。

It's not analytical.

这是文化性的。

It's cultural.

所以如果你告诉我，很多关于AI的恐慌——这个词可能挺合适的——就在最近两周爆发了，这其实是一种文化传染，当然其中也有真实的风险，我会相信你。

And so if you told me that a lot of the AI hysteria is probably a fair word that's been going around just in the last, like, two weeks, it's exploded, that that was just a cultural contagion, among other things, among them real risks of something like that happen, I would believe you.

而且你会发现，人们担心的事情往往是一窝蜂地出现。

And I think you see a lot of that where what people are worried about tends to go en masse.

大家同时都在担心。

It happens at the same time.

这是一种传染效应，你担心是因为别人也在担心。

It's a contagion effect where you are worried about it because other people are worried about it.

也就是说，你的恐惧和我的恐惧，我不是说它们不理性，但它们确实深受媒体文化、我们和谁在一起、我们读什么的影响。

And just that idea that your fears and my fears, I'm not saying they're irrational, but they are very much influenced by the dynamic of our media culture and who we spend our time with and what we read.

这一点很重要。

That's pretty important.

好了。

Alright.

最后一个问题。

Last question.

我换个说法来问。

Paraphrasing this one.

如果你有足够的钱可以解决所有问题，你会选择保留生活中的哪个问题？

It is what problem in your life would you choose to keep even if you had enough money to eliminate every problem?

这个问题问得非常好。

It's a very, very good question.

我觉得我希望永远保留、永远不想摆脱的，是那些创作上的问题。

And I think the problems that I hope I never get rid of and want to have forever are the creative ones.

所以我希望我的余生都在为写书而挣扎，抓耳挠腮，撞破头也在所不惜。

And so I hope for the rest of my life, I am struggling and pulling my hair out and hitting my head against the desk trying to write books.

有这样的问题其实是件好事。

That's a very good problem to have.

我觉得如果没有这类问题，很多人会感到无聊。

And I think in the absence of those kind of problems, a lot of people get bored.

而一旦无聊，他们就会变得沮丧。

And when they get bored, they get depressed.

我想要的是创作上的挑战。

I want creative problems.

无论你的创意追求是什么，不管是写作、园艺、绘画还是其他什么，那都很重要。

Whatever your creative endeavor might be, whether it's writing or gardening or painting or whatever it might be, that's important.

另一个我想的是，我希望我永远都要为孩子们操心。

The other one I thought about is I hope I always have to worry about my kids.

这个有点复杂，因为我当然希望他们能成长为自给自足、稳定、独立的成年人。

Now that's a more tricky one because I want them to grow up to be self sufficient, stable, independent adults, of course.

但我喜欢这个说法：悲伤是爱的凭证。

But I love the idea that grief is the receipts of love.

一个人去世后，你有多悲伤，就证明你当初有多爱他们。

However much you grieve someone after their passing, that's the receipt that you actually love them to begin with.

我觉得这大概也适用于担心——你对一个人的担心程度，也反映了你有多爱他们。

And I think there's probably a a corollary there with how much you worry about someone reflects how much you love them as well.

所以我永远不想对家人变得冷漠。

And so I never wanna become indifferent to my family.

我想我永远都会为他们操心，因为那正是我真正爱他们、在乎他们的表现。

I think I always wanna worry about them because that is a sign that I actually love and care about them.

好的。

Alright.

给你推荐一本书。

A recommendation for you.

我不确定我能不能每周都推荐一本书。

I don't if I can recommend a book every single week.

我打算开始翻翻我身后的书架了。

I'm gonna start digging deep into my bookshelves behind me.

但这本凯文·凯利写的《生活的卓越建议》真的很棒。

But this book called excellent advice for living by Kevin Kelly is fantastic.

它不仅名副其实，确实是关于生活的绝佳建议。

Not only true to its name is it excellent advice for living.

它的形式我觉得更多书应该采用，就是凯文·凯利总结的一系列关于如何过上更好生活的语录。

It is a format that I think more books should be, which is just a collection of quotes that Kevin Kelly came up with on how to live a better life.

我随便挑一条给你听听。

I'm gonna pick a random one for you.

这不是我特意挑的。

I didn't pick this out.

我就随便翻开一页，现在给你读一条。

I'm just gonna open up to a random page and read one for you right now.

学概率和统计比学代数和微积分有用多了。

Learning probability and statistics is far more useful than learning algebra and calculus.

我再翻到另一页，读一下这条。

I'm gonna open to another random page and read this.

想成为英雄，就感谢一位改变你人生的老师。

To become a hero, thank a teacher who made a difference in your life.

这本书里有几百条这样的小智慧，都是关于怎么把日子过好的，真的特别棒。

The book is hundreds of those kind of little nuggets on how to live a better life, and it is fantastic.

你花几个小时就能读完。

You can read the whole thing in a couple hours.

在飞机上就能看完。

You can read it on a plane.

你会把大部分内容都划上重点。

You'll highlight most of them.

真的很好。

It's really good.

好了。

Alright.

这周就到这里。

That's it for this week.

我们下次再见。

We'll see you again next time.