投资的艺术与科学

我最喜欢的一句话来自大卫·帕卡德，他曾说过，更多企业死于消化不良，而不是饥饿。

One of my favorite quotes is from David Packard, who once said, more businesses die of indigestion than of starvation.

我经常看到这种情况。

I see this all the time.

这在金钱方面太常见了，无论是个人还是企业，人们常常陷入复杂的大项目中，却忽略了小事。

It is so common with money, whether it is for you individually or for your business, that people get so tangled up in the big complex projects that they drop the ball on the small stuff.

要想长期做得好，你必须先把简单的事情做对。

To do well over time, you have to get the simple stuff right first.

而在商业中，一个经常被忽视的基本要素就是费用管理。

And one of those fundamentals in business that often gets overlooked is expense management.

这就是为什么有25000家企业使用Ramp。

And that is why 25,000 businesses use ramp.

Ramp是一张企业卡，包含了我所见过的最好的费用追踪和报告软件。

Ramp is a corporate card that includes the best expense tracking and reporting software that I have ever seen.

它让费用管理变得非常简单，因为卡片一刷，每一笔交易都会自动被记录下来。

It makes expense management so simple by automatically capturing every transaction the moment a card is swiped.

给节目听众的福利，Ramp 在接下来的30天里提供金属卡。

For listeners of the show, Ramp is offering metal cards for the next 30.

只要访问 ramp.com/morgan。

Just go to ramp.com/morgan.

就是 ramp.com/morgan。

That's ramp.com/morgan.

卡片由 Sutton Bank 发行，该银行为 FDIC 成员。

Cards are issued by Sutton Bank, member FDIC.

适用条款和条件。

Terms and conditions apply.

史蒂夫·乔布斯最搞笑的一句话是，他告诉比尔·盖茨，如果盖茨多吸点LSD，微软的产品会更好。

One of the funniest quotes from Steve Jobs is when he told Bill Gates that Microsoft products would be better if he, Bill Gates, had done more LSD.

我不是建议你或任何人这么做，但乔布斯的观点是，微软的产品可能技术不错，但缺少了苹果产品那种艺术感和精致感。

Now I'm not recommending you or anyone else do that, but his point, Steve Jobs' point, was that Microsoft products were maybe good technology, but they lacked the artistic feel and polish of Apple products.

有些人可能不同意这一点，但乔布斯经常谈论这个话题。

Now some people might disagree with that, but Steve Jobs talked about this all the time.

他常说，苹果是在艺术与科技的交汇处打造产品的。

He used to say that Apple was building at the intersection of art and technology.

而宝丽来的创始人埃德温·兰德，对史蒂夫·乔布斯影响非常大。

And Edwin Land, who was the founder of Polaroid, was a huge inspiration on Steve Jobs.

埃德温·兰德也经常这么说。

And Edwin Land used to say this as well.

他曾说过，引用一下，工业在艺术与科学的交汇处达到最佳状态。

He once said, quote, industry is at its best at the intersection of art and science.

这当然也影响了史蒂夫·乔布斯，而这可能至今仍然是苹果的标志性特点。

And that, of course, rubbed off on Steve Jobs, and that was maybe and still is today the defining characteristic of Apple.

是的。

Yes.

它的科技确实令人惊叹，但同时，甚至可以说在更高程度上，它是一门艺术。

It is amazing technology, but at the same time, and maybe even a higher degree, it is art.

产品非常漂亮。

The products are beautiful.

它们用起来感觉很棒。

They feel beautiful.

广告讲了一个好故事。

The advertising tells a good story.

那不是技术。

That is not technology.

那全是艺术。

That is all art.

史蒂夫·乔布斯以前常说iPad很有趣，让人忍不住想拿起来玩，他谈论它的处理器、芯片和性能时，也同样会提到这一点。

Steve Jobs used to talk about how the iPad was playful, and it begged you to pick it up as much as he would talk about its processor and its chips and its performance.

iPhone当然是个技术奇迹，但史蒂夫·乔布斯花了很多时间谈论它握在手里的感觉，以及打开盒子时盖子弹开、有一小股气流涌出的体验。

The iPhone, of course, is a technological marvel, but Steve Jobs spent so much time talking about how it felt in your hand and the experience of opening the box, you know, when the lid pops off and there's a little burst of air.

太酷了。

It's so cool.

史蒂夫·乔布斯的洞察力，也许也是苹果成功的最重要因素，就是他意识到技术不仅仅是科学。

Steve Jobs' insight and maybe the most important factor in Apple success was realizing that technology is not just a science.

它同样是一门艺术。

It's just as much an art.

很多不同的行业都是这样运作的。

And so many different industries work like that.

医学当然是一门科学。

Medicine is, of course, a science.

它可能是最重要的科学，但作为好医生的 bedside manner 和与患者的沟通，那是一门艺术。

It is maybe the science that's most important, but the bedside manner of being a good doctor and communicating with your patients, that is an art.

这一点极其重要。

And that is that is so incredibly important.

造车是工程科学，但设计车是曲线、线条和美丽色彩的艺术。

Building cars is the science of engineering, but designing cars is the art of curves and lines and beautiful colors.

还有一个例子，肯·伯恩斯关于越南战争的纪录片里有个令人震撼的故事，那部纪录片是你所能看到的最有力量的纪录片之一。在越战期间，当时的国防部长罗伯特·麦克纳马拉想把一切都量化。

One other example of this, there was this incredible story from Ken Burns' documentary on the Vietnam War, one of the most powerful documentaries you can watch, where during the Vietnam War, Robert McNamara, who was the secretary of defense at the time, he wanted to quantify everything.

他想把战争变成科学，于是他制作了大量图表和数据，涵盖了你能想到的战争中每一个可想象的统计指标。

He wanted to turn war into science, and so he just had reams and reams of charts and data on every imaginable statistic that took place in the war that you could think of.

我们有多少兵力，杀了多少敌方战斗人员，等等等等。

How many troops we had, how many enemy combatants were killed, etcetera, etcetera.

他想把一切都变成精确的统计数据。

He wanted to make everything a a precise statistic.

有一天，中央情报局的一个人来了，他看了所有这些统计数据，说，你的图表里少了点什么。

And somebody from the CIA came in one day, and he looked at all these statistics, and he said, there's something missing from your charts.

麦克纳马拉部长问，少了什么？

And reverend McNamara said, what is that?

他说，越南人民的感受。

And he said, the feelings of the Vietnamese people.

那是无法量化为统计数据的。

You could not quantify that to a statistic.

那是一种艺术，但却是天壤之别。

It was an art, but it made all the difference in the world.

我觉得很多其他领域也有类似的道理。

And I think so many other fields have an analogy just like that.

这可能会让人抓狂，因为一个领域越重要，我们就越想让它变得科学、可预测。

This can drive people crazy because the more important a field is, the more scientific and predictable we want it to be.

所以人们认真对待科学家，因为他们可以依赖和信任他们，但艺术就没那么被重视了，因为它总是随着潮流来去。

So people take scientists seriously because they can rely on them, count on them, but art is taken much less seriously because it comes and goes in fads.

但学术严谨之外的大多数领域，其实都是艺术和科学的结合。

But most fields outside of the rigors of academia are both art and science.

我觉得金钱也是如此，尤其是当我们谈论投资的时候。

And I think that is also true with money, especially if we're talking about investing.

我认为投资很大程度上是艺术，甚至可能超过科学，这个说法可能会让人反感，甚至比形容iPhone还要有争议，因为投资的教学和思考几乎完全围绕数字、数据、图表和公式。

I think with investing, the idea that it is a big part art, maybe more than it is a science, can be off putting and controversial even more than describing something like an iPhone because investing is taught and thought about almost exclusively in terms of numbers and data and charts and formulas.

所以，认为投资应该是科学，应该有一个公式告诉你该怎么做，这种想法太有吸引力了。

And so the idea that it should be a science, that there should be a formula that tells you how to do it is so appealing.

而且，因为投资对人们的福祉如此重要和根本，它关系到你将来能否退休，或者能否供孩子上大学，所以人们不愿意说这只是门艺术。

It's also the case that because investing is so important and fundamental to people's well-being, You know, it's your ability to retire someday or put your kids through college that people don't wanna say this is just an art.

它是一门轻飘飘的小艺术。

It's a floofy little art.

他们想把它当成一门科学，因为科学能带你到达目的地。

They wanna think it's a science because science can get you to places.

科学能带你上月球。

Science can take you to the moon.

你希望自己将来能退休，是因为那些非常聪明的人已经摸清了规则，他们会告诉你这些规则。

That, like, that's how you wanna think of your ability to retire someday is that these are very smart people who figured out the rules, and they're gonna tell you the rules.

但事实是，投资中有太多艺术成分。

But the truth is that there is so much art to investing.

我可以说，这些数字顶多是我编的。

I would say at best, I'm making these numbers up.

我觉得投资大概是半科学半艺术。

I I would say investing is probably half science, half art.

一半是数字、数据、事实和统计，剩下的就是艺术。

It is half numbers and datas and facts and statistic, and the rest is art.

而说到艺术，这里面有很多变数。

And by art, there's a lot of moving parts to that.

艺术的一部分是心理学。

Part of art is psychology.

还有一部分是情绪、行为、潮流，以及那些来了又走的时尚。

Part of it is emotion, behavior, trends, fads that come and go.

这些在投资中都扮演着重要角色。

All of that plays a big part in investing.

所以，投资确实有数字、公式和规则，但那些无法衡量甚至难以描述的软性因素，比如商业的艺术和投资的艺术，才是真正决定成败的关键。

Then, yes, investing has numbers and formulas and rules, but the soft stuff that you cannot measure or you can hardly even describe it, like the art of business and the art of investing, makes all the difference in the world.

收集信息是一门科学。

Gathering information is a science.

过滤噪音是一门艺术。

Filtering out noise is an art.

观察股市、跟随市场可以是一门科学。

Watching the stock market, following the market can be a science.

理解它做了什么、涨了多少。

Understanding what it did and how much it's gone up.

理解你在玩什么游戏，你的目标是什么，以及股市今年的表现是否与你的操作相关，这本身就是一门艺术。

Understanding what game you are playing and what your goals are and how what the stock market did this year may or may not be relevant to what you're doing, That is an art.

这完全是另一种技能。

It's a totally different skill.

比如说，如果你是个选股者，在Excel里建估值模型来算一家公司值多少钱，那是科学。

If you are a stock picker, let's say, building a valuation model in Excel to tell you how much a company is worth, that is a science.

但调整模型去反映不确定性带来的心理因素，那就是艺术了。

But calibrating it to reflect the psychology of uncertainty, that is an art.

净现值是科学。

Net present value is a science.

就像你读MBA时学的那样。

Like, you know, they teach that when you get your MBA.

识别一个CEO经营企业时的信任和激情，那是艺术。

Identifying the trust and the passion of a CEO running a business, that is an art.

你没法把它简化成一个公式。

You cannot distill that down to a formula.

衡量过去哪些做法有效，这是科学。

Measuring what worked in the past is a science.

理解为什么现在情况不同了，那是……

Understanding why things are different now, that's...

那非常像一门艺术。

That is very much an art.

所有这些都算艺术，因为你无法量化它们，也不能依赖一套固定的规则。

All these things are art because you can't measure them or rely on a repeatable set of rules.

所以科学有公式，但艺术有潮流。

So science has formulas, but art has fads.

科学有计算。

Science has calculations.

艺术有感觉。

Art has feelings.

科学有规律。

Science has laws.

艺术有时代。

Art has eras.

科学可以教，但我觉得艺术得亲身经历才能真正理解。

Science can be taught, but I think art has to be experienced firsthand before you actually get it.

你可能花一辈子去证明某件事应该或不应该发生的科学道理，结果却被艺术那部分彻底打脸。

You can spend a lifetime proving the science of why something should or shouldn't be, only to have the art part of the equation completely humble you into the ground.

这不就是整个投资史吗？

And isn't that the whole history of investing?

非常聪明、受过高等教育的人，手里有公式和数据告诉他们接下来会发生什么，结果却被我所说的投资艺术给打趴下，甚至羞辱得体无完肤。

Very smart, very educated people who had a formula and data showing them what should happen next, and then they get humbled, if not humiliated into the ground by what I would call the art of investing.

心理、行为、狂热、趋势、潮流，这些都起着巨大的作用。

Psychology, behavior, manias, trends, fads, all of that plays a huge role.

真正重要的是，当你真正理解投资的艺术以及它和科学的区别时，你会发现投资中很多号称是科学的东西，其实是自相矛盾的。

So much of what matters here and when you really understand the art of investing and how it differs from the science is when you see how much of investing, what is purported to be science, can contradict itself.

有数据显示，最好的投资方式是买你能找到的最便宜的一批公司，也就是便宜的價值股。

There is data showing that the best way to invest is to buy the cheapest set of companies that you can find, the cheap value stocks.

但也有同样有说服力的数据显示，最好的投资方式是买那些增长最快的公司，而这些公司往往价格不菲。

There is though equally persuasive data showing that the best way to invest is to buy the fastest growing set of companies which tend to be expensive.

这是完全相反、相互矛盾的信息。

The opposite conflicting information.

而且很多这种矛盾其实并不真的是矛盾。

And a lot of this is not even a contradiction.

这归根结底取决于你愿意承受多大的波动，你的投资期限是多久，过去的情况为什么和现在不同，以及为什么过去表现好的股票曾经很便宜。

It comes down to like how much volatility you're willing to endure, what your time horizon is, why and how things were different in the past, why stocks that outperformed used to be cheap.

那是有原因的，也许现在不再是这样了，因为现在表现好的不再是钢铁公司、铝业公司、银行和铁路公司。

There was a reason for it, and maybe they're not anymore because they're not, you know, steel companies and aluminum companies and banks and railroads.

它们是科技公司，完全不一样。

They're technology companies totally different.

理解这种细微差别是一门艺术。

Understanding the nuance of that is an art.

这不是一门能简单套进公式的科学。

It's not a science that you can cleanly put into a formula.

有些投资者特别看重品牌和无形资产。

Some investors out there obsess over brands and intangible assets.

但也有同样聪明的人说，别管那些，只看基本面，只看资产负债表。

There are other equally smart people who say ignore all of that and only look at the fundamentals, only look at the balance sheet.

我觉得这两种观点没有谁对谁错。

Neither of them, I think, are right or wrong.

你只需要明白，每种策略都有它适用的环境，市场趋势就像艺术一样，来来去去。

You just have to appreciate that each strategy lives in its own context and that market trends come and go like an art.

沃伦·巴菲特在解释他投资可口可乐的逻辑时就展示过这一点。

Warren Buffett once demonstrated this when describing his thesis for investing in Coca Cola.

他手上有数据支持。

He had the numbers in his favor.

那些利润、收入、资产负债表、股息，都是科学。

That was a science, like the the profits, the income, the balance sheet, the dividends.

这些科学数据对他有利。

That was a science that worked in his favor.

但他也说，消费者会把可口可乐和快乐联系在一起，这是无法衡量的东西。

But he also said that consumers associate Coca Cola with happiness, which is something that you cannot measure.

他有一次在课堂上讲这个观点的时候，跟学生们说过。

He once told a classroom when he when he was speaking about this idea.

他说，引用一下，别管市场份额了。

He said, quote, forget about share of market.

我说的是心智份额。

I'm talking about share of mind.

这句话很重要，虽然它一点都不科学。

That statement is as important as it is unscientific.

这没什么科学依据，但却是非常重要的一句话。

There's no science to that, but it's a very important statement.

风险投资家克里斯·萨卡也说过类似的话，他说，引用一下，我从来没用过电子表格来决定要不要做种子投资，一次都没有。

Venture capitalist Chris Saka once echoed something similar when he said, quote, I have never used a spreadsheet in deciding whether or not to make a seed investment, not one.

风险投资当然是一门关于人的生意，你要找的是激情和胆量，这几乎没什么科学可言。

Venture capital, of course, is a people business where you're looking for passion and boldness, and there's very little science to that.

这完全就是一门艺术。

It's just a ton of art.

所以无论你怎么投资，不管你是新手，还是投资指数基金，还是选股高手。

And so no matter how you invest, it doesn't matter if you're a novice, if you're investing in index funds, if you're a stock picker.

我觉得对每个人来说都一样，就是要接受投资既是艺术又是科学这个事实，而且这能暴露出每个人的一些问题。

I think what's true for everybody is coming to terms with investing being both art and science, and it exposes a couple things for everybody.

第一点，也许是最重要的一点，就是无论你怎么投资，因为投资既是艺术又是科学，所以真正的专家很少。

The first, maybe the most important, is the idea that no matter how you are investing, because it is art and science, there are very few experts.

科学可以有专家，医学、工程、化学等领域都可以有专家，不管是什么领域。

Now science can have experts, experts in medicine and engineering and chemistry, whatever it might be.

但艺术没有。

Art does not.

艺术是主观的。

Art is subjective.

我觉得投资也是如此。

I think that is very true in investing as well.

没有人能完全理解情绪变化、心理波动、预期转变的力量，这些甚至很难定义清楚。

No one can fully understand the power of changing moods, changing psychology, shifting expectations, which are hard to even define what those things mean.

当然，有些投资者比其他人更擅长应对市场和心理的起伏。

Some investors are better at navigating the ups and downs of markets and psychology than others are, of course.

拥有这种技能，这种理解心理的艺术性技能，可以让你成功的几率更偏向你。

And having that skill, that artistic skill of understanding psychology can tip the odds of success in your favor.

当然，有些人比其他人更值得关注，但像电工专家那样真正的投资专家其实很少。

Some people are worth paying attention to more than others, of course, but there are very few investing experts in the same way that there are, say, expert electricians.

投资并不是那样的。

It's not it's not quite like that.

我不想点名，因为我不想说别人坏话，但确实有一些非常成功的投资者，他们非常富有，筹集了很多资金，上电视说一些话。

And I would I would say without naming names because I don't wanna speak poorly of people, but there are very successful investors who are are very wealthy and raise lots of money, who go on TV and say things.

有时候我觉得那些建议可能对说这话的先生本人适用，但对很多正在听的人来说，那真是糟糕的建议。

And sometimes I think that advice might be true for you, mister saying that, but that is terrible advice for so many other people listening to this.

这不是纯粹非黑即白的科学。

It's not a pure black and white science.

这是一种艺术，某个时代对某个人有效的方法，在这个时代可能对你就不适用了。

It's an art and something that may have worked in one era for one person might not work in this era for you.

第二点要记住的是，俗话说得好，条条大路通罗马。

The second thing to keep in mind is that there are many different ways to skin a cat, as the saying goes.

各种投资风格，有些甚至互相矛盾，但都能奏效。

All kinds of investing styles, some of them contradictory, can work.

这 partly 是因为投资者的目标不同，也 partly 是因为市场会随时间变化。

And this is partly because investors have different goals and and partly because markets change over time.

我尽量不去批评那些我不理解的投资风格，就像我不会去批评我不喜欢的艺术一样。

I try not to criticize people's investing styles that I don't understand for the same reason that I don't criticize art that I don't like.

也许它对我没用，但对你可能有用。

Maybe it doesn't work for me, but it does work for you.

而且我觉得，一旦你接受了这个领域有很多艺术成分，不同的心理适合不同的人，你就会变得不那么愤世嫉俗，也不那么爱评判别人怎么花钱了。

And I think once you come to terms with that, how much of this field is artistic and just different psychology works for different people, you become a little bit less cynical and less judgmental about what other people are doing with their money.

同时，你也会对别人批评你的理财方式更加免疫。

And you also become a little bit more immune to other people criticizing what you do with your money.

因为你可以说，你看，也许在你眼里，我做的事情没什么道理，但对我来说，对我的家人来说，这很有意义。

Because you can say, look, maybe in your eyes, what I'm doing doesn't make a lot of sense, but it makes sense for me and my family.

而且，这就是我喜欢用钱的方式。

And it's like, it's it's what I like doing with money.

最后一点是，技能很难识别。

Last is that skill is hard to identify.

如果我造了一台生产小零件的机器，你可以清楚地看出我的工程技能。

If I build a machine that makes widgets, you can clearly identify my engineering skill.

但如果我通过投资赚了很多钱，我可能只是运气好，刚好在对的时间出现在对的地方。

But if I make a lot of money from investing, I may have just been lucky at the right place at the right time.

而投资中这种软性的艺术成分，让识别技能变得非常困难。

And that soft art part of investing makes identifying skill very difficult.

解决办法是看重过程而不是结果，但说起来容易做起来难，因为人们喜欢那种“我是对的”这种看似科学的感觉。

The solution is to appreciate process over outcome, but that is easier said than done because people like the perceived science of being right.

而能够一次又一次重复这种做法的艺术，却更难掌握。

The art of being able to repeat it time after time is much harder to grasp.

这周就到这里。

That's it for this week.

再次感谢收听，我们下次见。

Thanks again for listening, and we'll see you next time.