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嗨，我是史蒂夫·艾斯曼，欢迎收听《艾斯曼实战手册》的又一期节目。
Hi, this is Steve Eisman and welcome to another episode of The Real Eisman Playbook.
我很高兴地告诉大家，我有一位常驻嘉宾，是我的老朋友，也是我在Frontpoint做空时代的前合伙人，现在他也是一名播客主持人，摩西，他主持的播客叫《On The Tape》。
I'm really pleased to say I have a recurring guest, an old friend, former partner from my Big Short days at Frontpoint, and who is now also a podcaster, Moses, who runs a podcast called On The Tape.
丹尼，欢迎回来。
Danny, welcome back.
很高兴来到这里。
Great to be here.
史蒂夫，你知道吗，你现在在播客领域已经超过我了。
Steve, you're now lapping me in the podcast arena, just so you know.
你从零一下子冲到了六十。
You went from zero to 60.
我还停在二十呢，不过谢谢你关心。
I'm still stuck at 20, but thank you for asking.
谢谢。
Thank you.
谢谢。
Thank you.
所以你有一个播客叫《On The Tape》。
So you run a podcast called On The Tape.
跟我们聊聊你的嘉宾吧，你的播客上最近有什么值得关注的事情？
Tell us a little bit about some of your guests, things have been happening on your podcast that are of
我的嘉宾来自不同领域。
So I have guests from various fields.
有些是技术分析师，有些是策略师。
Some are technicians, some are strategists.
我们刚请了Ergo的RP Eddie，他做地缘政治咨询，客户包括主权财富基金、对冲基金、政府和公司，真的很有启发。
We just had RP Eddie from Ergo who does geopolitical consulting, clients are sovereign wealth funds, hedge funds, governments, corporations, really enlightening.
现在《On The Tape》的内容还包括我们的Substack，叫《What Are We Doing Contrarians at the Gate?》。
And part of the offering for On The Tape now also includes our Substack, What Are We Doing Contrarians at the Gate?
就在这周……
And just this week...
你会和参议员波特·柯林斯以及文森特·丹尼尔一起讨论，你显然对他们非常熟悉。
Which you'd work out with the Senator Porter Collins and Vincent Daniel, who you obviously know very well.
几周前你赚了一笔钱。
You had money a couple weeks ago.
所以现在这些都融合在一起了，Clear Street 现在成为赞助商。
So now it's kind of all blended together and Clear Street is now sponsoring.
Clear Street 是谁？
Who's Clear Street?
他们是华尔街的一家经纪交易商，过去几年发展得很快。
They're a broker dealer on Wall Street that's kind of grown over the last few years.
他们的服务面向所有类型的投资者。
And their service offering is really catering to all, every type of investor.
他们提供贷款，清算所有业务。
And they do lending, they're clearing everything.
所以我们很高兴与他们合作。
And so we're excited to partner with them.
我们会和他们一起办活动，但我提这个是因为现在一切都开始整合起来了。
We're gonna be doing events with them, but I bring that up because it's now kind of all coming together.
最开始只是我和CNBC的丹·内森、盖伊·达米一起做的那个节目，你也作为嘉宾上过，现在他们还有三四个其他节目，这个已经成了这个部门的一部分。
What started out is just on the tape that I started with the guys at CNBC, Dan Nathan and Guy Dami, and you've been on the show as one, then they have three or four other properties now, this has now become part of this unit.
所以感觉非常好。
So it's been great.
还有写作，我知道你喜欢，那是一种很好的表达方式。
And writing, which I know you like to do, it's a great expression.
我们有个叫《周五夜话》的播客，有点像你每周的总结。
We do a Friday Night Dirty podcast, kind of like your weekly rap.
我们叫它《周五夜话》。
We have a called the Friday Night Dirty.
我们就是总结一下这一周，看看有什么值得关注的。
We just sum up the week and kind of what's out there.
所以两边一起发展，真的很有意思。
And so it's been a lot of fun kind of growing both sides.
那我们先从你的节目开始吧。
So let's start with your show.
你采访人的方式跟我差不多。
So you interview people like I interview people.
跟我们说说，最近两个月里，你觉得哪些嘉宾特别有意思？
Tell us a a few guests in the last, let's say two months that you thought were particularly interesting?
他们说了什么，你又学到了什么？
What did they say and what did you learn?
其实这周刚出的那期播客，请的是Ergo，一个政治智库，做地缘政治咨询的。他们的负责人RP Eddie，跟Porter Collins是布朗大学的同学，他跟我们聊了从地缘政治到中期选举的各种话题。
So actually the podcast that just came out this week was with Ergo, which is a political think tank type of geo politics consulting company and RP Eddie, who went to college with Porter Collins at Brown runs it and gave us his thoughts on everything going on from geopolitical to midterm elections.
他在2017年写了本书，讲那些预言灾难的人，说他们不光是杞人忧天，还教人怎么识别这些信号。
He wrote a book in 2017 about Cassandra's and how they're not just chicken littles and what to look for.
里面提到的一些东西挺有意思的，比如福岛核事故导致欧洲电力短缺，因为他们反核，诸如此类。
And some of the stuff that came up, know, that's really interesting was Fukushima has led to a power shortage in Europe because they were anti nuclear, things like that.
福岛是怎么回事？
What was Fukushima?
我们继续吧。
Let's go for
对，那是日本的一个核设施，因为海啸而烧毁了。
Yeah, And was a nuclear facility in Japan that burnt because of the tsunami that occurred.
重点是，福岛事件后，全球都不愿意再建核电站，这可能导致我们今天面临的局面，包括人工智能的电力需求问题。你也深入讨论过，我们怎么满足这个需求？
And the point being the reaction to Fukushima around the world by not wanting to build nuclear and that stuff has created potentially the stuff we're in today up to and including AI power issues that we're now, as you know, you've talked about this at length, how are we gonna meet this demand?
很多都得靠核电。
A lot of it's nuclear.
所以挺神奇的，一个事件怎么就能……
I mean, so it's amazing Which how one
你的意思是，如果没有福岛事件的话。
might have had, what you're saying is, but for Fukushima.
没错。
Correct.
所以事情就是这样一环扣一环。
So it's just how those things.
所以那真的很有意思。
And so that was really interesting.
最近丹尼斯·德布舍尔来了，他是伟大的戴夫·德布舍尔的儿子，戴夫经营着22V研究公司。
Dennis DeBusher was on recently, the son of the great Dave DeBusher who runs 22V Research.
等等，等等。
Wait, wait.
我知道戴夫·德布舍尔是谁。
I know who Dave DeBusher is.
你也知道戴夫·德布舍尔是谁。
And you know who Dave DeBusher is.
那告诉听众，他是谁？
Well, tell the audience, who was
戴夫，直到最近，他是最后剩下的之一，显然，他是赢得NBA冠军的尼克斯队的一员，他在……
Dave Until recently, one of the last remaining, obviously was part of a team that won the NBA championship with the Knicks in He the
他是对手。
was the foe.
他可是个厉害角色。
He was the powerful
对，他太厉害了。
foe.
是的，他非常出色。
Yeah, he was amazing.
22号是他的球衣号码。
And 22 was his number.
丹尼斯·德布舍，我们在ISI时期就认识他，他后来去了很多地方，他是个策略师和经济学家。
So Dennis DeBusher, who we know from ISI days and everywhere he's been, he's a strategist and an economist.
他创办了一家叫22V的公司，你认识很多和他一起工作的人，包括比尔·赫贝尔，他以前是你的银行分析师。
He started a firm called 22V and you know a lot of the people that work with him, including Bill Hebel, who your former bank analyst.
我不认识比尔·赫贝尔。
I don't Bill Hebel is.
得请他上节目。
Gotta get him on.
他在管理银行。
He's running bank
天哪，一定要把比尔请来。
Oh my God, got to get Bill on.
丹尼斯当时在场，他说他认为市场会达到6800点。
So Dennis was there and Dennis was saying that he thought the market was going to hit 6,800
或者今年标普指数会到7800点。
or 7,800 this year on the S and P.
他上次来节目时也是这么说的。
I That's what he said last time he was on a mark.
他说对了。
He was right.
他认为美联储不会降息。
He thinks the Fed wasn't going to cut rates.
即使通胀在上升，他也这么认为。
This is even in the face of rising inflation.
他们以为不会降息。
Thought they wouldn't cut rates.
抱歉，他们今年剩余时间不会再加息了。
Sorry, they wouldn't raise rates any longer for the rest of the year.
我觉得他这点说错了。
I think he was wrong about that.
不，但最近他上节目说，九月份的机会，或者，抱歉，十月份的机会，现在反正已经下降了。
No, but recently he came on and said, the September chance or the, sorry, the October chance, which has now dropped chance anyway.
所以那挺好的。
So that's been great.
所以，来上节目的人挺杂的，有些人每个季度左右会再来一次。
So it's been, it's a nice mix of people that come on and some come back on every quarter or so.
卢克·格罗门，你得请他上节目，他是谁？
Luke Gromen, who you need to have on, who's this?
他是做宏观分析的，真的非常厉害，能看透大局。
He's a macro guy, really amazing forest for the trees.
多年来他一直看好黄金，是个很聪明的人，想法也与众不同。
It's been long gold for years and brilliant guy and thinks away.
我喜欢请那些想法和大家不一样的人来上节目，对吧？
I like to get people on that don't think like everyone else does, right?
这有点像……
And this is kind of...
好，那我们聊聊，先从美联储开始吧。
All right, so let's talk about, let's start with the Fed.
然后我们聊聊贝森特。
And let's talk about Bessent.
我实在搞不懂贝森特到底想干什么。
Like I can't figure out what Bessent is trying to accomplish.
他是美联储的还是财政部的？
So he's Fed or Treasury?
我们两个都会聊到。
We're gonna go to both.
两个都说说吧。
Do both.
好。
Okay.
说说你的看法吧，因为我也有想法，你也有想法。
Give me your thoughts because I got thoughts, you got thoughts.
先听你的。
We'll start with yours.
美联储加息了。
Fed raised rates.
你觉得他们还会再加吗？
Do you think they're gonna raise more?
更重要的是，贝森特搞了个什么扭曲操作，发行短期债券去买长期债券，想压低长期利率，结果反而让长期利率更高了。
More importantly, Bessent pulled this whole twisty twist thing where he issued short term bonds to buy long term bonds to try and drive down long term rates, which only caused long term rates to go higher.
所以你就说说你对这一块发生的事有什么看法吧。
So just give me your thoughts about this whole stuff that's going on in that part of
市场那边。
the market.
真是不可思议。
It's amazing.
没有人能大过市场本身。
Nobody's bigger than the market itself.
不管是美联储想控制短期利率，还是财政部想控制长期利率，都没用。
Doesn't matter if it's the Fed trying to control the short end or treasury trying to control the long end.
这个市场太大了。
It's too big of a market.
而且你我都清楚，如果大家都知道你的底牌和你要做什么，那你就没戏了。
And you and I both know if everyone knows your position and what you're going be doing, your hand is out.
所以说到跟庄家对着干，我们在Substack上写了一篇文章，基本上就是算牌。
So as far as betting against the house, we wrote a piece on our Substack, counting cards, basically.
你现在就可以算牌，搞清楚庄家手里有什么，财政部他们...
You could count cards right now and figure out what the dealer has, treasury, what they're...
什么……
What...
你知道他们在做什么，他们告诉过你，但这太小了，而且没什么效果。
You know what they're doing, they've told you, but it's too small and it's ineffective.
这更多是象征性的。
It's more symbolic in nature.
所以这就是要跟财政部的贝森特打交道的地方。
So that's the part to deal with Bessent of the treasury.
至于美联储，如果你真的是通胀鹰派，我们会希望美联储短期加息来控制收益率曲线的长端。
As far as the Fed goes, if you're truly an inflation hawk, we would want the Fed to raise rates short term to control the longer end of the curve.
因为这在我们的经济学课上是应该发生的。
Because that's what it's supposed to happen in our economics class.
这是应该发生的。
It's supposed to happen.
所以我不羡慕他们现在所处的任何一方。
So I don't envy either of their positions that they're in right now.
显然，油价高企，但希望中东能实现某种和平，油价会降下来。
Obviously the higher oil at some point, hopefully there's peace of some kind in The Middle East and oil comes down.
然后人们就会假设通胀会下降。
And then the assumption will be that inflation will come down.
但我们现在已经调整了目标，从那个2%的数字变成了3%，只要它朝着2%的方向走，我们就没问题。
But we're running, we've moved the goalposts from that 2% number to the three, as long as it's going towards two, we're okay.
但生活成本上涨的速度比工资快。
But the cost of living is going up faster than wages.
现在我们已经进入了一个周期。
It's gonna be, we're in a cycle now.
就利率而言，这感觉更像是一个长期趋势性的周期，而不是普通的周期性波动，因为利率被压抑了太久。
This feels like a much more secular than cyclical cycle as far as where rates, because rates were so suppressed for so long.
所以你我一起经历过，在某些时候甚至手拉手，比如2008年。
And so you and I lived through held hands at some points and literally holding hands in 2008.
想想2008年，我们当时做了什么？
And when you think about 2008, what did we do?
我们从来没有解决根本问题。
We never solved the underlying problem.
我们把债务转移到了政府的资产负债表上。
We transferred the debt to the government balance sheet.
我知道你之前谈过这个，利率当时降到了零，美联储的资产负债表从零一路飙升到九万亿，这主要是疫情期间发生的，现在大概在六万七千亿左右。而美国的债务从八万亿涨到了现在的四十多万亿。
I know you've talked about this before and rates were, we went to zero on rates and the Fed's balance sheet went from zero to 9,000,000,000,000 in a straight line through COVID obviously some things that came and now it's sitting at 6,700,000,000,000 And the debt on our balance sheet in The US went from 8,000,000,000,000 to where it sits here to over 40,000,000,000,000.
所以利率更高，债务也更高。
And so rates higher, debt higher.
顺便说一句，从八万亿涨到现在，真是惊人的变化。
What an impressive move by the way, go from 8,000,000,000,000.
确实。
Amazing.
你能想象一直持有那种资产吗？
Can you imagine being long that?
怎么
How
你会做多那个吗？
do you go long that?
我要是知道就好了。
I wish I knew.
没错。
Exactly.
所以当你考虑经济中的名义增长和实际增长时，实际上一直是实物和货币刺激在某种程度上推动着一切。
So when you think about nominal growth and real growth in the economy, it's been physical and monetary stimulus that has been really what's been driving everything to a degree.
所以回到你最初的问题，当你开始做某些事情，或者被迫做某些事情，本意是想稍微控制一下局面，不管是债务还是别的什么，或者是通胀，让一切回到正轨。
And so back to your original question, when you start to do things or you're forced to do things that are supposed to kind of rein that in a little bit, whether it's debt, whatever it might be, whether it's inflation, get things under control.
没有哪个政党想处理这个问题。
No party wants to deal with this.
没有人愿意承受这个。
There's no, it's no one wants to stomach it.
所以再说一次，我不羡慕这个位置，但我认为方向已经定了，而且我不认为他们现在做的任何事情会有什么影响——这里加息25个基点，停一下，那里降息25个基点，买200亿美元的十年期国债。
So again, I don't envy the position, but I think the course is set and I don't think anything that they do right now will have any impact Raising a quarter point here, stopping, cutting a quarter point here, buying 20,000,000,000 worth of tenure.
这确实是个问题。
It's an ant.
我同意，基础利率水平会在更长时间内保持较高。
I agree with that the level of underlying rate is going to be higher for longer.
今年有5000亿美元的人工智能债券发行。
The fact that 500,000,000,000 of AI issuance is taking place this year.
而且还在增长。
And growing.
这正在挤出其他投资。
It's crowding out.
私营部门有这么大的规模，以至于真的会挤出国债，这种情况以前从未发生过，但这次就是这么大。
And the statement that something in the private sector is so large that it would actually crowd out treasuries has never happened before, but it's that big.
所以，我现在非常担心的一个领域是整个住房市场。
So I mean, one thing that I would be very nervous about right now is just the whole housing sector.
因为目前抵押贷款利率是7.5%。
Because I mean, I think, you know, as of now, mortgage rates are 7.5%.
现在房贷利率7.5%，人们根本不会买房。
People are not buying homes at mortgage rates of 7.5%.
他们就是不会买。
They're just not.
所以这是个很大的负面因素。
So it's a big negative.
我觉得自疫情以来，人口结构发生了变化。
I think there's a demographic shift that has occurred since COVID.
这一代人，我们孩子这一辈，不管他们买不买房，他们不像我们以前那样看待买房这件事。
This generation, our kids age, whether they buy a home or not, don't think of it like we used to.
我昨天演讲时，后排有个年轻人举手问，买房是不是个好主意？
I was giving a speech yesterday and somebody way in the back, young person raised their hand and asked, Is it a good idea to buy a house?
我客气地说，听着，如果你找到一套你真心喜欢的房子，而且你买得起，也付得起月供，包括税费等其他费用，那太好了，就买吧。
And I said nicely, I said, Listen, if you find a house that you really like and you can afford it and you can afford the payments, include all the other payments like the taxes and stuff, God bless, buy the house.
但别指望靠买房赚钱。
But don't expect to make money buying the house.
我觉得那个时代已经完全结束了。
I think those days are completely over.
你有没有讲过那个故事？2008年，也就是金融危机那会儿，我们都去了奥兰多，不是拉斯维加斯那次，是第二年去奥兰多那次，那是一个固定收益会议。
Did you ever tell the story that from in 2008, so during the crisis that was going on, we all went down to Orlando, not the Vegas trip, the Orlando trip the second year, it was an ASF, it was a fixed income conference.
然后你准备去演讲。
And you gave up to give a speech.
你说你演讲前要给大家发百忧解。
And you said, you were gonna pass out Prozac before you spoke.
哦，我记得这事儿。
Oh, I remember this.
我记得你好像说了句什么，让大家看看左边，看看右边。
And I think you made a comment or something to turn to your left, turn to your right.
这些人里有一个会失业。
One of those people won't have a job.
失业。
A job.
所以再回到那个问题，我们现在处于周期的哪个阶段？
So again, kind of along those lines of what part of the cycle are we in here?
实际上，现在财富更多了。
There's actually more wealth.
目前股市里的家庭财富比人们房产里的还要多。
There's more household wealth in the stock market right now than there is in people's homes.
真的吗？
Really?
所以有趣的是，你把风险转移了。
So what's interesting is that you shifted the risk.
现在股市下跌对经济构成的威胁更大。
The stock market going down poses more of a risk to the economy right now.
比房地产还大。
Than housing.
这确实很有意思。
That is very interesting.
然后是K型经济，你明显能看到K的上端，比如房地产，谁在乎利率啊，人们都是现金买房或者别的什么。
Then the K shaped economy, obviously you can see the high end of the K, like housing, who cares what rates are, people are buying in cash or whatever it might be.
但在下面，没有，交易量很少。
But underneath there's no, there are not a lot of transactions going
在继续。
on.
K的下端，人们不买房。
The bottom part of the K people are not buying.
情况很糟。
It's bad.
不容易。
It's not easy.
但K的上端继续支撑着经济。
But the top part of the K continues to carry the economy.
那种消费还在继续，真是令人惊讶。
It's amazing that spending that still goes on.
好，那我们聊聊人工智能吧。
Alright, so let's turn to AI.
这个话题我们可能能聊上三个小时。
We could probably talk about this for the next three hours.
看看能不能压缩到二十分钟。
Let's see if we can narrow it down to twenty minutes.
随便聊聊。
Random thoughts.
说说你脑子里在想些什么吧。
Give me some random thoughts about what you're thinking about.
我猜你已经请过很多嘉宾聊这个话题了。
And I'm sure you've had tons of guests to talk about it.
我们都聊过这些了。
We've all that in.
所以很明显，我不是搞技术的，对吧？
So obviously not a tech person, right?
我也不是。
Me neither.
但你知道吗？
But you know what?
你不必是技术专家也能明白正在发生什么。
You don't have to be a tech person to understand what's going on.
对。
Correct.
所以，做几个比较，然后每个周期都非常独特。
So couple of comparisons and then it's every cycle is very unique.
所以这个长期趋势非常巨大。
So there's this secular trade is massive.
这是一个长期的变化，对吧？
It's a secular change, right?
我原以为到现在它应该变得更周期性一些了。
That I thought would by now have become more cyclical.
我是什么意思呢？
What do I mean?
英伟达的毛利率一直保持在百分之七十多的高位。
Nvidia's gross margin staying up in the high seventies.
如果两年前你告诉我我们还会保持在百分之七十多，我会觉得这不可能。
If you told me two years ago that we would still be in the high seventies, I'm like, there's no chance.
确实不可能。
There's no chance.
总有一天竞争会来的。
Some point competition comes.
内存芯片。
The memory chips.
我知道会发生什么。
I know what's gonna happen.
我不知道什么时候，但美光，挺好的，为他们高兴。
I don't know when, but Micron, great, good for them.
这些股票之所以以8到9倍的市盈率交易，是有原因的，因为人们根本不在乎今天的市盈率是多少。
There's a reason the stocks traded eight to nine times earnings because people don't care what earnings multiple trades at today.
他们关心的是，未来会是什么样子？
It's like, what does it look like?
这是不是一种大宗商品？
Is this a commodity?
这会不会变成一种同质化的产品？
Is this gonna be a commoditized product?
答案是，迟早会的，因为你只需要建一座晶圆厂，然后开始生产这些芯片，总有一天能做到。
And the answer is yes at some point, because all you gotta do is build a fab and start making these chips at some point.
真正让我困扰的是，我看到的那些对比，有点像1999年、2000年，也有点像我们经历过的全球金融危机。
What really bothers me and the comparisons that I see, it's a little bit of 1999, 2000 and a little bit of what we lived through GFC.
这些对比是什么？
What are the comparisons?
1999年、2000年，光纤热潮，那时候你和我还在共事。
Ninety nine, two thousand, the fiber optic craze, you and I were working together at the time.
大家都知道，我和丹尼以前在奥本海默工作。
As everybody knows, Danny and I were at Oppenheimer.
我当时是金融服务分析师。
I was the financial services analyst.
丹尼是资历比较深的销售之一。
Danny was one of the more senior salespeople.
丹尼经常带我出差去见客户。
And Danny used to take me on the road I to go see
那个故事可以讲。
could tell that story.
那得讲上七个小时的播客。
That would be a seven hour podcast.
带你去阿拉巴马，住在一个没有热水的NBC套间，你下楼来的时候，那场面真是够瞧的。
Taking you to Alabama to an NBC suites with no hot water and you coming downstairs, that was quite something.
既然你提起来了，我来讲个故事，让知道的人听听。
But let me tell a story now that you bring it up so people that know.
我1996年就在那里开始了。
So I started there in 1996.
你是我最早认识的几位分析师之一。
You were one of the first analysts I met.
梅雷迪思·惠特尼当时在你手下工作。
Meredith Whitney was working for you.
文森特·丹尼尔也在你手下工作。
Vincent Daniel was working for you.
你第一次对次级汽车贷款和房屋净值贷款发表看法时，我作为销售坐在那里，负责客户。
And your first call on subprime auto and home equity lending, I'm a salesperson sitting there covering accounts.
我负责对冲基金和州养老基金。
I cover hedge funds, state pension funds.
你走上讲台，说下面这八只股票会跌到零。
And you got up on this podium and said, the following eight stocks are going to zero.
我转向那个正在跟巴里·卡雷奇尼克学习的人。
And I turned to the guy who was kind of learning from Barry Karechnik.
我就说，巴里，这个判断到底是怎么做出来的？
And I said, Barry, how do I make that call exactly?
他说，你做不出这个判断。
He goes, You don't make that call.
我说，我做不出这个判断。
I said, I don't make that call.
他说，你不能直接打电话给投资经理或分析师说，你持有的股票会跌到零。
He goes, You can't call a portfolio manager, analyst and say, The stock you own is going to zero.
你得把他们叫过来，聊一聊，随便聊聊。
You get them over here, you talk a little bit, whatever.
所以我就把梅雷迪斯叫过来，把文尼也叫过来，还把VIO也叫来了。
So I grabbed Meredith, I grabbed Vinnie, I grabbed VIO.
我就问，这个穆迪信托证券化数据是怎么回事？
I'm like, What is this Moody's trust securitization data?
为什么应该……
Why should...
总之，我想讲这个故事是因为那看起来……
Anyway, I wanted to tell that story because that looked...
总之，在九九年、两千年的时候，亨利·布洛杰特、吉姆·荣格汉，我们当时的情况非常相似……
Anyway, so ninety nine, two thousand, Henry Blodgett, Jim Jungjahan, we're living in this very similar...
亨利·布洛杰特当时在奥本海默。
Henry Blodgett was at Oppenheimer.
对。
Yes.
还有吉姆·荣格汉，他就是那个“丛林吉姆”之一。
And Jim Jungjahan, who was one of the Jungle Jim.
他之所以叫“丛林吉姆”，是因为他负责研究JDS Uniphase这些公司，这名字是有原因的。
There's a reason his name was Jungle Jim covering JDS Uniphase and these things.
而你作为销售，或者作为负责金融板块的分析师，你没法用梗来包装，账面价值、净资产收益率这些，很难让人兴奋起来。
And you sit there as a salesperson and you sit there as an analyst covering financials, which you can't really meme, book value this, ROE this, it's hard to get past this.
他们却能尽情做梦。
They can dream the dream.
那个梦想是什么？
What was the dream?
梦想就是光纤在改变世界，互联网发展得太快了。
The dream was that fiber optics were changing the world, that the internet was growing so fast.
他们说得对。
They were right.
他们说得对。
They were right.
但如果你真的停下来算一笔账，我马上就会讲到，看看当时投入的资本开支，铺设的光纤数量，租赁的光纤数量，还有朗讯和北电租赁的设备，以及朗讯和北电基本上是在给客户提供贷款来买他们的设备去做这些事情。
But if you actually stopped to do the math, which is what I'm gonna get to in a second, on the amount of CapEx that was being spent, the amount of fiber that was being laid, the amount of fiber that was being leased, the amount of equipment that was being leased by Lucent and Nortel, how Lucent and Nortel were basically providing loans to people to buy their equipment, to do this stuff.
这笔账根本算不过来。
The math didn't work.
那些光纤都能绕地球十圈了。
You could have wrapped that fiber around the globe 10 times.
所以，停下来算算账，看看现在所有这些AI的资本开支都花到哪里去了。
Like, so stop and do the math back to where all this CapEx is on AI.
而且，这确实是个真实的故事。
And again, it's a real story.
我不是说它不是，但互联网当年也是这样。
I'm not saying that it's not, but so was the internet.
在那笔交易里，有赢家也有输家，关键是要分辨出AI领域里各个公司的长期趋势和周期性波动。
And there was winners and there were losers into that trade and trying to identify the secular and the cyclicality of various names within the AI play.
比如说，我喜欢Alphabet、亚马逊、Meta和微软在回调时的机会。
For example, I love Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft on pullbacks.
为什么？
Why?
因为他们的业务非常出色。
Because they have an incredible business.
是的，他们的资本支出在某些情况下首次出现了负增长。
Yes, their CapEx in some cases has now gone negative for the first time.
他们可以扭转这个局面——
They can turn that-
他们的现金流没了。
Their cash flow is gone.
现金流，抱歉，现金流没了。
The cash flow, sorry, cash flow has gone.
他们想关掉那个水龙头随时都可以。
They can turn off that spigot whenever they see fit.
我说，我们完了，我们完了。
I said, we're done, we're done.
够了。
It's enough.
那么，我们正在建设的产能、所需的时间、需求以及所创造产品的经济性之间，不匹配的地方在哪里？
So where is the mismatch between the capacity that we're building, the time that it's gonna take, the demand and the economics of the products which are being created?
我不知道OpenAI能不能成功。
I have no idea if OpenAI is gonna make it or not.
我知道我们节目里有人聊过，Anthropic这些公司烧钱烧得厉害。
I know we've had people in the show talk about it, Anthropic, these guys are burning cash like crazy.
总有一天你得证明自己能赚钱，能盈利。
At some point you're gonna need to show if you can make money, a profit.
我不知道这账怎么算，给我看看数据，无论是企业需求还是消费者需求，包括代币这些。
I don't know where the math, show me the math, both on the enterprise demand side and the consumer demand side with token and all that.
再说，我不会假装什么都懂，但常识告诉你，如果你停下来算算所有贷款、外面欠的债，还有人们收费的价格。
Again, I won't pretend to know all that, but common sense tells you that if you were to stop and do the math on all the loans, amount of debt that's gone out there, what the prices are that people are charging.
随着时间推移，你会造出更多芯片。
Over time, price you're gonna create more chips.
GPU的价格会降下来。
GPU pricing is gonna come down.
你会有下一代，下一代中国会开源，这个那个的。
You're have the next generation, the next generation China's coming open source, this and the other.
所以对我来说，这不是我想做空的东西，或者外面有几个名字不像其他一些那样财务稳健。
So to me, it's not something I want to short, or there's a few names out there that aren't as financially sound as some of the others.
比如谁？
Like who?
Coreweave，我觉得它有点像……
Coreweave, which I think is Why
Coreweave不是那种……
is Coreweave not that It's
真的有点像这个行业的WeWork。
really like a WeWork of kind of the trade.
对，他们确实在买芯片，对吧？
Yes, they're buying chips, right?
他们有大客户，现在也开始做短期租赁了。
They have big clients and now they've gone to kind of renting out shorter term.
所以他们的资产负债表上可能存在错配，他们有510亿美元的债务，这显然包括租赁负债。
So they have a mismatch potentially on their balance sheet of, they have 51,000,000,000 in debt, which includes leases obviously on
你刚才说Coreweave有510亿美元的债务。
You just said that Core Weave has $51,000,000,000 in debt.
那可是很多钱啊。
It's a lot of money.
但我们有点……
But we're sort of...
数字？
Numbers?
这些数字太大了。
The numbers are so big.
比如在Core Weave的背景下，510亿。
Like in the context of Core Weave, 51,000,000,000.
当你退一步真正想一想，你会对自己说，这太吓人了。
When you take a step back and you actually think about it, you say to yourself, That's frightening.
但你确实需要退一步看。
But you actually have to take a step back.
这就是我的观点。
That's my point.
因为今年要花一万亿的数字。
Because the numbers that are spending $1,000,000,000,000 this year.
所以当你说Core Weave有500亿债务时，我的第一反应是，无所谓。
So when you say that Core Weave has 50,000,000,000 in debt, my initial reaction was, whatever.
谁在乎呢？
Who cares?
这不算大。
It's not so big.
对。
Exactly.
他们什么时候能赚钱？
When are they going to make money?
所以你需要一条通往盈利的路。
So you need a path to profitability.
他们将来有可能赚钱吗？
Could they make money at some point?
我还没做足够的分析。
I haven't done enough analysis.
我的意思是，那不是我想用来表达我对AI主题看法的股票。
My point is that that's not a stock I want to own to express my AI theme.
就是不行。
That's just not.
那么，和2006年以及2007年2月相比，相似之处在哪里呢？
So where are the similarities to 2006 and 02/07?
我来告诉你相似之处在哪里，尤其是几个月前关于英伟达和华尔街各大银行之间那个证券化合作的消息。
I'll tell you where it is, especially with the news a few months ago about this securitization partnership between Nvidia and all the banks on Wall Street.
我不知道
Which I don't
那之后发生了什么。
know what's happened since then.
他们现在正在启动新的交易。
They're starting new deals right now.
他们现在开始做了。
They're starting to do now.
所以记住，我跟你讲这些，就像是在跟全世界解释一样，其实你早就懂了，因为你教会了我一切。当年抵押贷款交易之所以能持续，只有一个原因，也只有一个原因。
And so remember, I'm telling you as if I'll explain it to the world, which you already know, because you taught me everything to deal with this was the mortgage trade went on because of one reason and one reason only.
那就是华尔街愿意借钱给抵押贷款机构，给他们提供信贷额度。
Wall Street's willingness to lend to the mortgage originators to provide lines of credit.
这样抵押贷款公司就能生产这些抵押贷款，然后华尔街把它们打包，买下来，再卖给全世界。
So the mortgage companies could produce these mortgages and they could package them, Wall Street, and buy them and sell them to the world.
现在也是一样的道理。
Same thing.
我们干脆再重复一遍。
Let's actually just repeat that.
所以华尔街，为了让大家都明白，华尔街基本上是借钱给抵押贷款机构，然后抵押贷款机构再借钱给消费者。
So Wall Street, so everybody understands, Wall Street would basically lend money to a mortgage lender so that the mortgage lender could lend money to a consumer.
对。
Correct.
然后他们拿到这笔贷款，再卖给华尔街，华尔街再打包卖给投资者。
And they would take that loan and they would sell it to Wall Street who would then package it and sell it to investors.
他们会用一条仓库信贷额度。
They would use a warehouse line.
提供一条仓库信贷额度。
Would provide a warehouse line.
一条仓库信贷额度。
A warehouse line.
只要经济上划算，华尔街非常愿意给他们提供这条仓库信贷额度。
And as long as the economics kept working, Wall Street was more than willing to provide them the warehouse line.
对。
Correct.
所以，如果一笔贷款按面值计算，也就是100，而认证住房贷款机构的放贷成本是2.5%，那他们的成本就是1到2.5。
So if a loan's at par, which is a 100 and accredited home lenders cost them two and a half percent to originate a loan, their cost is one or two and a half.
只要你能以高于1到2.5的价格卖出贷款，
As long as you can sell loans for more than one or two and a half,
那生意就能做下去。
We're all it works in business.
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一旦
The minute
这些东西开始下跌，你我都知道发生了什么。
the things started to drift lower, you and I both know what happened.
华尔街开始撤回仓库信贷额度。
Wall Street started to pull the warehouse lines.
然后发生了什么？
And then what happened?
那些抵押贷款就滞留在新世纪金融、全国金融、第一信贷的资产负债表上，后面的事大家都知道了。
Those mortgages were then stuck on the balance sheets at New Century, Countrywide, Credit One is the rest is history.
在贷款领域，这里也有相似之处。
There is a similarity here within the kind of the lending.
当我们进入证券化领域时，最疯狂的一句话是拉里·芬克在CNBC上说的，那是一次很棒的采访。
And when we got into the securitization space and the craziest quote was Larry Fink on CNBC, which was a great interview.
他们把所有相关的人都请来了。
They had everyone around.
是什么时候？
Was this?
那是几个月前他们宣布这笔交易的时候。
It was a couple months ago when they announced this deal.
黄仁勋也在场。
Jensen was on there.
这笔交易是黄仁勋促成的。
This was the deal that Jensen created
对，是他促成的。
Yeah, was it's created.
他们都围坐在一起。
They were all sitting around.
我觉得只有芬克是远程参与的。
And I think Fink was the only one that was remote.
其他人都实际在CNBC的演播室里。
Everyone else was actually in the CNBC studio.
然后芬克说，这太神奇了。
And Fink goes, This is amazing.
这让我想起了七十年代我们做抵押贷款支持证券的时候。
This reminds me so much of what we did with mortgage backed securities back in the seventies.
这太不可思议了。
This is incredible.
我当时就想，你刚才说什么？
I'm like, what did you just say?
所以总之，还有一些事情，另外一件事，就是要把这件事说完整，你比任何人都清楚，2008年我们非常震惊，因为政府完全不知道。
So anyway, so there are some, and the other thing, is just to take this full circle here is that, and you know this better than anyone, we were so shocked in 2008 that the government had no idea.
我们最后之所以那么害怕，是因为我们觉得，哇，还以为你知道呢。
The reason we got so scared at the end, we're like, woah, thought you knew.
你以为我们知道？
You thought we knew?
我，政府。
Me, the government.
对，政府。
Yeah, government.
我们以为政府知道我们在做什么。他们什么都没追踪。
We thought the government knew what we They weren't tracking anything.
他们根本不知道杠杆在哪里。
They didn't know the leverage anywhere.
那之后发生的就是一场完美风暴，很多贷款都流向了银行体系之外。
Well, what's happened since then is the perfect storm, which is that a lot of the lending's gone outside of the banking system.
没错。
Correct.
是的，在黑石，在阿波罗。
Yes, it's at Blackstone, it's at Apollo.
我知道你请过加斯顿和格伦·肖尔。
And I know you've had Gaston and Glenn Schorr.
你请过一些人谈过这个，但我不清楚……
You've had people that have talked about this, but I don't know what's...
我们不知道具体是多少……
We don't know what's the of...
实际上在外面流通的贷款量。
The amount of lending that's actually out there.
几万亿美元，他们在干什么？
A couple trillion dollars, what are they doing?
私人信贷。
Private credit.
而且很多私人信贷交易都流向了AI增长领域和科技领域。
And a lot of the private credit trade has lent itself into the AI growth sector and the technology sector.
所以没有什么系统性的问题。
So there's nothing systemic.
我不是说有问题，但这些必须得有个地方来核算。
I'm not saying that, but this has to be accounted for somewhere.
看起来就像是，对，这里一笔坏账，那里一笔坏账，在私募股权和私人信贷领域都是零星的。
And it just seems like, yeah, one off bad credit here in the private equity world and private credit, a one off thing here.
整体来看，我觉得事情很脆弱，因为我们现在处于5.27，5.3%的十年期国债收益率，这个水平很脆弱，等节目播出时可能情况完全不同。
Things don't feel, things feel fragile to me overall because the fragility that we're at five point, as we sit here today, we could be very different when this airs, but 5.27, five point three percent ten year yields.
这个水平我们可以接受。
We can live with that.
这不是问题。
It's not an issue.
只要有增长来支撑就行。
If you have the growth to support it.
但现在你达到了这样的水平，那些没有增长的公司变得昂贵。
But you're reaching levels now where companies that aren't growing getting expensive.
它们在更高利率环境下的增长能力是完全不同的。
Their ability to grow in a higher rate environment is just different.
有一件事让我困扰，我和你一样，我不会去告诉别人做空整个AI交易。
One of the things that bothers me, and I'm like you, I'm not going out telling people to short the whole AI trade.
我觉得那样做太疯狂了。
I think that would be insane.
但让我担心的一点是集中度风险。
But one of the things that concerns me is the concentration risk.
举个例子，英伟达大概一个月前发布了财报，我记得营收增长了110%。
Just as an example, Nvidia reported maybe like a month ago, I think revenue was up 110%.
大家都欢呼雀跃。
Everybody said, Hurrah.
但第二天你就看到了10-Q文件。
But the next day you got the 10 Q.
10-Q文件显示，英伟达70%的应收账款来自五个客户。
And the 10 Q said that 70% of Nvidia's accounts receivable is from five accounts.
我记得我们在Oppenheimer的时候，那里有个软件分析师。
I remember when we were at Oppenheimer, there was a software analyst there.
刘易斯·艾斯曼？
Lewis Eisman?
刘易斯·艾斯曼。
Lewis Eisman.
我记得她跟我讲过一件事，说银行家带着一家软件公司来找她，想推动上市。
And I remember she told me this story where the bankers came to her with a software company to bring public.
那家公司增长非常快，但她深入研究了数字之后发现，这家公司其实只有三个客户。
And it was a very fast growing company, But she dug down into the numbers and she realized that the company had like three customers.
她说，这太集中了。
And she said, that's too concentrated.
我不会让一家只有三个客户的公司上市。
I'm not going to take a company public that has three customers.
可是，英伟达是全球最大的公司，70%的收入来自五个客户？
Well, Nvidia is the largest company in the world and 70% of its revenue comes from five customers?
这集中风险实在太大了。
There's just a tremendous amount of concentration risk.
另外，这整条产业链很大程度上都依赖于OpenAI和Anthropic的健康状况，而这一点我无法评估。
And the other part is that so much of this whole chain is dependent upon the health of OpenAI and Anthropic, which I can't handicap.
没人能评估。
Nobody can handicap.
我们现在连财务数据都没有。
We don't even have any financials at this point.
从经济角度看，这确实是个国家安全问题，我们现在太依赖这个增长了。
It's a national security issue in the sense of the economy, the reliance we have right now on the growth.
它对GDP的贡献非常大。
It's contributing huge amount of growth to GDP.
哦，至少占GDP的一半。
Oh, it's at least half of GDP
确实非常庞大。
It's massive.
所以你不能停下来喘口气。
And so you can't afford to take a step back and take a deep breath.
华尔街或华盛顿没人愿意说，咱们放慢点脚步吧。
No one on Wall Street or in Washington wants to say, Oh, let's slow it down a little bit.
那是他们最不想看到的。
That was the last thing they want to see.
那你对那种“AI要毁灭地球”的说法怎么看？
So what do you make of the whole AI is going to destroy planet earth routine?
我们总能解决的。
We'll figure it out.
听着，再说一次，我对技术了解得不够。
Listen, again, don't know the technology enough.
从非投资者的角度看，我看到的东西有点吓人。
It's a little scary, the stuff that I've seen, approaching it from a non investor lens, to see.
现在网络安全问题已经到处都是了。
We already have cybersecurity issues going on all over the place.
希望这能用来帮助网络安全，但看起来有些人在乱来。
Hopefully this could be used in a way to help cybersecurity, for it, but it seems like there's some rogue agents.
我看过那些视频。
I mean, I watch these videos.
我试着自学，但一看就特别害怕。
I try to educate myself and I get so scared when I watch it.
我永远不会，比如说，你怎么交易那个？
I'll never, like, how do you trade that?
如果那真的会发生，那肯定会有事情发生。
Like if that's gonna happen, there's gonna be things that happen.
每种技术都会这样，但我无法预测。
It happens in every technology, but I can't predict it.
我觉得会有一些坏事发生。
I think some bad things are going to happen.
只希望不是灾难性的。
Just hopefully it's not catastrophic.
好的。
Okay.
让我们转向我们在私募股权界的好朋友们。
Let's go to our good friends in the private equity world.
有一件事一直在发生，如果我们是在五六七年前谈论，那时候变现的时间是三到四年。
I mean, one thing that's been happening is, if I we were talking five, six, seven years ago, that amount of time for monetization was three to four years.
现在变成七年了。
Now it's seven.
可能还会变成十年。
Maybe it's going to ten.
你对私募股权的未来有什么看法？
Do you have any thoughts on the future of private equity?
从永久资本的角度来看，这是个非常棒的商业模式。
It's an incredible business model in the sense of permanent capital.
管理费永远都在收。
Management fees just go on forever.
这个领域不是你想交易就能交易的。
It's not an area you can trade them.
所以让我回到之前的话题。
So let me go back.
只有在市场出现重大转折点的时候，比如大家恐慌到觉得私募信贷要爆雷，把股价砸得很低，你才有机会买入。
You can trade them at massive inflection points when people get so scared that private credit's going to blow up and they destroy the stocks, you have a chance to buy them.
反过来，当美联储看起来要进入降息周期时，这些东西就会暴涨。
And the flip side of that is when it looks like the Fed's gonna be in a rate cutting cycle and these things explode higher.
但大多数情况下，就像我之前说的，在放贷方面，它们已经取代了传统银行。
But for the most part, like I said before, they have replaced the traditional banks as far as lending goes.
是的，确实如此。
Yes, they have.
而且因为它们不受监管，但它们很聪明，它们都持有自己业务的一部分。
And because they're not regulated, but they're smart, they all own a piece of their business.
它们并不想把自己的公司搞垮。
They're not trying to blow their firms up.
它们只有一个任务，就是出去尽可能多地筹集资金。
They had one job, go out and raise as much money as you can.
我们在这个圈子里待过。
We've been around that world.
我们清楚这一点。
We know that.
所以你们的销售人员出去，保险公司、养老基金公司，出去尽量多筹钱。
So your salespeople go out, insurance companies, pension companies, go out and raise as much as you can from them.
咱们把第一只基金、第二只、第三只、第四只、第五只、第六只都关掉。
Let's close fund one, fund two, fund three, fund four, fund five, fund six.
所以这里有个尾巴。
So there's a tail here.
所以他们有能力继续投资，不管是投他们想投的那些公司还是别的。
So they have the ability to keep investing, whether it's in the same companies that they want to invest or whatever.
所以对他们来说，这玩的是管理资产规模，是募资游戏，因为正如你所说，他们真正想赚钱的地方是分红和变现。
So was an AUM game, gathering game for them because that's where they can make now to your point, distributions and realizations is really where they want to make their money.
而这些是有周期性的。
And those are goes through cycles.
自从从银行系统抢走资产以来，这个行业一直是长期增长的故事，所以自疫情以来，我们还没有经历过真正的停摆周期，那次疫情在这个行业里算是一次性的。
We haven't had a true shutdown cycle since COVID, which was a one off in that sector since it's been a secular growth story after taking assets away from the banking system.
所以它还没有经过考验。
So it hasn't been tested yet.
除了疫情期间，我们还没见过其他情况。
We haven't seen anything other than during COVID.
那疫情期间发生了什么？
And what happened during COVID?
美联储和财政部在买HYG。
The Fed and Treasury were buying HYG.
他们救活了很多他们可能借钱给的公司，那些公司本该归零的，但没归零。
They resurrected all a lot of companies that probably they lend to that should have gone to zero and they didn't.
所以他们更关注这个。
So they were more focused on it.
那他们需要做什么？
And what do they have to do?
他们的职责就是让资产运转起来，让现金运转起来。
They're paid to put the assets to work, the cash to work.
所以他们放贷。
So they lend.
我担心一些覆盖率，比如EBITDA比率。
And I'm concerned about some of the coverage ratios that the EBITDA ratios.
我知道你可能在你的Substack上做过关于契约和类似内容的讲解，比如所谓的宽松契约贷款。
I know you probably do a teaching on your Substack on that, on covenants and things like that, covenant light loans, so to speak.
因为他们需要部署资金。
Because they needed to deploy.
所以当你有很多钱的时候，你会用不同的方式来做承销，因为你必须部署这些钱来筹集更多的钱。
So you underwrite in a different way when you have so much money because what you have to deploy that money to raise more money.
第七期基金，出发吧。
Fund seven, let's go.
我们第六期基金快结束了。
We're almost done with fund six.
它已经被分配好了。
It's already accounted for.
所以我认为这变成了一场资产管理规模的争夺战。
So I think it became an AUM gathering game over
等一下，我在这里打断你一下。
massive going pause you on that point.
因为我觉得这个行业在金融危机后真的起飞了，简直是爆发式增长。
Because I think this industry really took off post GFC, like exploded.
确实。
Amazing.
不过话说回来，它爆发的原因之一是因为银行不得不收缩，所以总得有人来填补这个空缺。
Now, in its defense, one of the reasons why it exploded was because the banks had to pull back, so somebody had to replace them.
但另一方面，还有一个因素我觉得对他们伤害很大，那就是你作为一个机构。
But on the other hand, there's another aspect to this, which I think is really hurting them, which is you're an institution.
你以前并没有投资过私募股权。
You were not previously invested in private equity.
你是在公开市场里。
You were in public markets.
08年那会儿真是痛苦得难以想象，因为你基本上一下子就损失了40%的钱。
'eight was unbelievably painful because you lost basically 40% of your money like that.
你不想再承受那种波动了。
You don't want that volatility anymore.
所以你就把钱投到私募股权里，因为至少你可以假装它没有波动。
So what you did was you put money into private equity because at least you could pretend that it wasn't volatile.
现在，私募股权和公开市场一样波动。
Now, the private equity is just as volatile as the public markets.
只不过你每天看不到价格而已。
It's just that you don't get a price every single day.
所以你可以晚上睡得着，骗自己说，我的钱在私募股权里，跟着一些真正厉害的专业人士，他们会帮我赚很多钱，而且没有波动。
So you could sleep at night pretending to yourself, I got my money with some real great professionals in private equity who are going make me a lot of money, and it's not volatile.
我觉得这就是这个行业增长这么快的一个主要原因。
And I think that's one of the big reasons why that industry grew so much.
现在，没人能套现了。
Now, no one's getting monetized.
利率一直在涨。
Rates keep going higher.
这个行业其实只有在低利率的时候才能运转，因为它是个高杠杆的生意。
This business really only works in low rates because it's a leveraged business.
我觉得私募股权行业会经历很长一段非常艰难的时期。
I think the private equity business is going to go through a long period of very troubled times.
这让我想起你最喜欢的一部电影，也是我最喜欢的，就是吉恩·怀尔德演的《威利·旺卡》，对吧？
So this reminds me of definitely one of your favorite movies, definitely one of mine, Willy Wonka with Gene Wilder, right?
他在最后拿出合同，你输了。
Where he brings out the contract at the end, you lose.
然后他拿出那长长的一卷，什么第四条第三款之类的。
And he brings out this long thing goes article four, section three, whatever.
这整个关于锁定的问题，明白吧。
This whole thing with gating, okay.
在行情好的时候你根本不会想到基金的锁定条款。
Which you never think about when times are great, gating of a fund.
现在所有这些私募资金都在搞这个，对吧？
All these private money going on now, right?
赎回的需求已经超过了他们愿意给出的额度。
Demand for redemptions is exceeding what they wanted to give.
所以他们只处理了5%。
So they were done at 5%.
有一大笔钱积压着需要流出去。
There's a built up amount of money that needs to go out the door.
第二点，你刚才提到的，就是按模型估值和按市场估值的问题。
And the second thing is to the point you just bring up is the mark to model versus the mark to market.
如果没有必要，就没有动力去按市场估值，你说得对，因为一旦资产管理规模变了，一切都会跟着变。
There's no incentive to mark to market if you don't have to, to your point, because the AUM changes, everything changes at that point.
最后一点，史蒂夫，如果你是散户投资者——很多看你节目的人都是——我多年来一直这么说，我怎么会有这么好的运气能投资这种产品呢？
And the last thing, Steve, is that if you're a retail investor, which a lot of people that watch you here are, and I've been saying this for years, how do I have the good fortune of being able to invest in this particular product?
为什么我是那个幸运儿，能看到这个私下交易机会，它出现在我的……
Why am I the lucky one that sees this private deal that comes to my...
为什么它会出现在我的收件箱里？
Why am I getting this in my inbox?
整个分销过程，散户能接触到这些复杂产品，原因只有一个。
Like this whole distribution It's retail Getting access to these sophisticated products happens for one reason and one reason only.
他们需要填满这些交易。
They need to fill these deals.
机构不会放过好交易的。
Institutions don't pass on good deals.
就像股票市场的IPO一样。
It's like an IPO in equities.
当IPO不成功，当对冲基金和惠灵顿、富达这些大型机构都不想要的时候。
When the IPO doesn't work, when the hedge funds and all the large institutions in Wellington and Fidelity don't want it.
然后他们……
And they get...
他们就把这些塞给散户。
They stuff retail.
他们怎么……
What do
我们以前在交易台上是怎么做的？
we used to do on our desk?
七月感恩节，他们硬塞给我们一堆。
Happy Thanksgiving in July, they stuffed us.
哦，我们只要了20万股。
Oh, we asked for 200,000 shares.
史蒂夫，嘿，丹尼，那个IPO我们分到了多少？
Steve, hey Danny, what did we get out that IPO?
20万股。
200,000 shares.
靠。
Fuck.
你只要200万的时候，结果给你塞了20万。
You don't want 200,000 when you ask for 2.
总之，我的意思是，他们可能在那里面待得太久了。
Anyway, my point is that they might be overstaying their welcome in that.
我觉得还有一件事就是让散户投资者拥有机构投资者拥有的一切，小心你许的愿。
And I think that's another thing that has happened is allow retail investors to have everything that institutions have, careful what you wish for.
那我们还有什么要聊的？
So what else should we talk about?
我们来聊聊你进入的这个媒体圈吧。
What, I mean, let's talk about the media world that you've entered here.
我很想问你一些问题。当然可以。
Would love to ask you some Absolutely.
好的，你说吧。
Okay, go ahead.
你比我更早进入市场，比我早几年。
You've been involved in the markets longer than I have, few years longer than I have.
我之前转型做这种媒体播客，而你一直是个教授。
And I made the transition to kind of this media podcast before And you you've always been a professor.
你一直很喜欢教学，也喜欢学习。
You've always loved to teach and to learn.
这一直是你的专长。
That's always been your thing.
如果你没去华尔街，你会在哥伦比亚大学当教授。
If you didn't go to Wall Street, you'd have been a professor at Columbia.
那就是你会做的事。
That's what you would.
能想象你穿那身衣服的样子。
Could see you in the outfit.
你会非常出色。
You'd be spectacular.
长款开衫。
Long cardigan.
可能还会叼个烟斗，所以我想问你，你享受的是什么。
Probably a But pipe at this so I think there's, I want to ask you the enjoyment.
你一开始问我的问题是，你从你的嘉宾那里学到了什么？
You asked me the opening question was, what have you learned from your guests?
我喜欢学习新东西。
I love learning new things.
我也是。
Me too.
我也一样。
Do as well.
说到这段旅程，因为四年前你上过《On The Tape》，来过几次，表现得很好。
So talking about the journey because you were on On The Tape four years ago, you came on a few times and you were good on it.
我觉得你当时有点，嗯，不太自在，不是因为你对谈论的内容不熟悉。
I think you were a little bit, it was, you weren't comfortable, not because you weren't comfortable what you were talking about.
你有点像，这是什么？
You're kind of like, what is this?
就像我该说什么？
Like what am I supposed to say?
现在，看看发生了什么。
And now, look what's happened.
所以恭喜你现在做的事情。
So congratulations on what you're doing.
谢谢。
Thank you.
而且我知道谁是背后的智囊。
And I know who the brains are behind the operation.
那是我妻子。
That would be my wife
对，很明显。
Yes, obviously.
所以那是个很棒的团队。
And so that's a great team.
那就谈谈你的经历吧，因为……
So talk about your journey because...
好的。
Sure.
我们是去年四月份开始的。
We started April of last year.
我采访了Evercore的丹·克利夫顿。
I interviewed Dan Clifton of Evercore.
我们很幸运，说起来有点奇怪，我安排他做我的第一位嘉宾，纯粹是巧合。
We had the fortune of, it was sort of weird, I had scheduled him just because I just had scheduled him to be my first guest.
结果我采访他的时候，正好是特朗普总统宣布关税之后的两天。
And it turned out that I interviewed him like two days after President Trump did announce the tariffs.
所以时机再合适不过了。
So couldn't have been more relevant.
我记得那次采访播出后，我们大概有五千次观看。
I remember we did the interview and I think we had 5,000 views.
我们当时就想，哇，有五千人想看我的节目。
And we were like, wow, 5,000 people want to watch me.
这多不可思议啊。
How crazy is that?
所以你看，这需要时间。
So look, it took time.
首先，我发现我可以采访别人。
I mean, first of all, I found that I could interview people.
然后我们加了每周总结，就是我在周末结束时对着镜头说话。
And then we added the weekly wrap, is when I wrap up the weekend, I just speak into a camera.
我最初几次做每周总结时，感觉很别扭。
And the first several times I did the weekly wrap, it was awkward.
因为你要对着镜头，周围没人，得不到任何反馈，只能自己说。
Because you're looking into a camera, there's nobody here, you're getting no feedback and you're just talking.
这需要时间来适应。
Took time to of
听起来就像在华尔街做研究分析师一样。
Sounds like being a research analyst on Wall Street.
没错。
Exactly.
我觉得我们找到的这个定位，就像你之前暗示的那样，我不是来告诉任何人他们错了，也不是要说服他们我对你错。
I think the niche that we've developed, which you intimated at, is I'm not here to tell anybody that they're wrong or to convince them that I'm right and you're wrong.
我只是想教育大家，让他们对正在发生的事情有更好的理解。
I'm just trying to educate people so that they have a better understanding of what's going on.
而且我尽量用一种非常非对抗性的方式去做这件事。
And I try and do that in a very non confrontational kind of way.
所以，这有点像……
So, and it's sort of...
这很有意思。
It's interesting.
我想就这一点问你，因为我完全反过来想。
I to ask you on that because I'm flipping it completely.
我们坐在交易台前，你作为投资组合经理管理基金，资金是有风险的。
We're sitting on the desk, you have money at risk as a portfolio manager running your fund.
你会尽一切努力向分析师解释你的立场，即使你认为他们不是不诚实，只是没有从你的角度来看待这些问题。
You would do everything you could to explain your side of the story to an analyst that you either thought wasn't being not honest, but wasn't really looking at these things from the standpoint that you were.
可能是贷款方。
Could be a lender.
也可能是其他什么角色。
It could be whatever it might be.
你会变得激动，会非常生气。
And you would get heated and you would get very upset.
我会的。
I would.
甚至不是因为股票还没涨，而是你会想，你怎么回事，你没看到我看到的吗？
Not even because maybe the stock wasn't working yet because you're like, are you like, you not see what I see.
那是因为你从不同的角度来看待问题。
And that's because you were coming at it from a different angle.
你有自己的立场，你并没有强迫他们做任何事。
You have a position on, you're not forcing them to do anything.
但我想说的是，有趣的是，你确实可以戴上那顶帽子，再戴上这顶帽子，因为你必须要有
But my point is that it's interesting to see how you can take, you literally can wear that hat and wear this hat because you have to have
我年纪大了。
I'm these older.
所以我不像以前那么情绪化了。
A So I'm not quite as emotional as I used to be.
而且我现在的态度是，我主要想做的是教育。
And I've sort of taken the attitude that what I'm trying to accomplish is education.
史蒂夫，有些很棒的故事。
There's some great stories, Steve.
可以……
Could...
我们可以……
We could...
我能讲几个故事吗？
Can I tell a couple stories?
请讲。
Go ahead.
好的。
Okay.
我听到最多的故事，也是被问得最多的问题
The story I get most, the question I get most
你被问得最多的问题。
The question you get most.
关于《大空头》的。
About The Big Short.
那完全是真实的。
Which is 100% true.
那本书百分之百准确。
The book was a 100% accurate.
电影有百分之七十五的真实度。
The movie was 75%.
百分之七十五。
75%.
这个，你坚持到了零。
This, you holding up to zero.
我没法告诉你……
I can't tell you for...
一想到亲眼看着你做到那一步，我还是会激动。
I still get emotional when I think about watching you actually do it.
人们说，他真的那么做了吗？
People said, did he really do that?
我说，他确实那么做了。
I go, he did that.
瑞恩·高斯林，你在场的时候做得比我好多了。
I mean, Ryan Gosling You did a much better job of were in the room.
你就坐在我旁边。
You were sitting next to me.
当时就只有你和我。
Was just you and
是我。
me.
没错。
That's right.
房间里全是做固定收益的人。
I mean, the room was full of fixed income people.
我就坐在你旁边，上面那个家伙是搞期权的。
And I'm next to you ho ho option one guy up there.
我心里想，问问大家吧。
I'm like, ask guys.
我就说，史蒂夫，你在干什么？
Like, I go, Steve, what are you doing?
然后你举起手，比了个零。
And you raise your hand and you show a zero.
那个讲话的人真的说，不好意思，这是个问题吗？
And the guy speaking and literally said, I'm sorry, is that a question?
不，那不是问题。
No, that's not a question.
你的亏损有0%的可能性会停在5%。
There's a 0% chance your losses are gonna stop at 5%.
抱歉，什么？
I'm sorry, what?
零。
Zero.
然后他试图镇定下来，那个H&R Block的家伙，期权一号的家伙。
And then he's trying to get his wits about him, H and R Block guy, option one guy.
就在他准备回击你或者要说点什么，或者希望你赶紧走开的时候，你的电话响了。
And literally as he's about to come back at you or say something, or hopefully you go away, your phone rings.
是瓦莱丽打来的。
It was Valerie.
瓦莱丽给你打电话，我看着你的手机在响。我们刚刚陷入一片死寂，你用那个零的手势让一切停了下来，然后你走出去，把我一个人留在那里。
Valerie's calling you and I'm looking now your phone's ringing this We just went to dead silence when you've stopped everything by doing the zero and you walked out and you left me there.
我当时就那样做了，真的，我从来没那样过，就像电影里演的那样。
And I did this, I literally, I've never, like you see it in movies.
我真的就那样做了。
I literally went like this.
不知道该怎么办。
Didn't know what to do.
而且我们坐在中间。
And we were sitting in the middle.
又不是说我能站起来就走。
Like it wasn't like I could get up and go.
所以我就一直待到最后。
So I stayed for the rest.
但你真的做到了。
But you actually did it.
是的，我做到了。
I did.
哦，我确实做了。
Oh, I definitely did it.
还有那些晚宴，我甚至编都编不出来。
And the dinners and I can't even make that up.
那里发生的事，简直了。
Like the stuff that went on there.
有一次真是疯狂。
A It once was in crazy.
另外，人们总是问，没人暗示我们运气好。
And the other thing people always ask is no one insinuates that we're lucky.
我总说那是一次机会交易。
I always say it as it was an opportunity trade.
我们无法理解，你怎么能有效地用债券来表达这些公司的空头主题，你按面值做空，它最多涨过面值一点点，可能涨几个点，还付2%到3%的票息。
We couldn't understand how you could effectively express the short theme for these companies in the form of a bond, which you're shorting at par, which can't go really up more than par, can go up maybe a couple of points and paying 2% to 3% coupon.
所以如果你错了，你错一年，亏5%，然后你就出局了。
So if you're wrong, you're wrong for a year, lose 5% and you're out.
迈克尔·伯里，我总说，我们当时并不认识他。
Michael Burry, I always tell this, we didn't know him at the time.
如果那是我们，我想你会承认的。
And if that had been us, I think you would admit.
如果我们在2004年就做这个交易，我们绝对撑不到2006年。
If we put that on in 2004, no chance we're around in 2006.
根本撑不住。
Not even bother.
早就倒闭了。
Been out of business.
对，没错。
Yes, exactly.
我们这辈子就一次，时机把握得完美无缺。
Once in our lives, our timing was impeccable.
史蒂夫，我们做那笔交易的那天，规模还很小。
Steve, the day we put it on that trade was small.
我们一开始投入很小，第二天一进来，市场给出的报价就对我们有利。
We started out small, come in the next day and immediately the marks that we get were in our favor.
从来没有对我们不利过。
Not once did it go against us.
每天一开始，丹尼，你拿到报价了吗？
Every day would start, Danny, did you get the marks?
就这样。
Anyway.
所以大家要明白，当我们做次级抵押贷款的信用违约互换时，也就是我们当时做的，是没有屏幕显示的。
So everybody understand, when you do a credit default swap on subprime mortgages, which is what we did, there's no screen.
那是场外交易。
It's OTC.
是场外的……
It's over the...
不像白天，你和我盯着屏幕，然后说，哦，价格变得对我们有利了。
It's not like during the day, you and I are looking at screen and we're going, Oh, the price is changing to our benefit.
我们得等到一天结束，或者有时候早上才能拿到价格。
We would have to wait till the end of the day or sometimes in the morning to get prices.
而且你总是那个去拿价格的人。
And you were always the one to get the prices.
我总会说，丹尼，价格是多少？
I would always say, Danny, what's the What's price?
我们怎么样？
How are we?
我们一开始挺好的。
We're starting out good.
今天开始的时候我们稍微涨了一点。
We're up a little bit to start the day.
所以这改变了我们的心态。
So it changed our mindset.
所以这真的是一个有用的工具，那是另一个误解。
So it really was a useful tool, that was the other misnomer.
人们会说，哦，我说，不，有一本长账本，一本短账本，还有那个……
People like, oh, I go, no, there's a long book, there was a short book and there was the...
如果我们愿意的话，那本账本本来可以做得更大。
And if we wanted to, that book could have been much bigger.
但我们做的是负责任的事情。
But we were doing the thing that was responsible.
所以无论如何，那些时光我绝不会用任何东西去交换。
So anyway, wouldn't trade those times for anything.
虽然那让我们少活了好几年，但那段经历太棒了。
Even though it took years off of our lives, that was amazing.
确实如此。
Certainly did.
不过，我确实想问，我想聊点别的。
I do want to ask, I do want to talk about something else though.
我想谈谈债务和赤字的问题。
I want to talk about the debt and the deficit.
好的。
Okay.
因为我知道你关心。
Because I know you care.
我确实关心。
I do care.
你作为美国人关心。
You care as an American.
顺便说一句，
By the way,
我其实在Substack上写过，可以做那些聊天和笔记。
I actually wrote, you know, on Substack, can do those chats and notes.
是的。
Yes.
所以我今天写了一篇笔记，比较法国正在发生的事情和这里正在发生的事情。
So I wrote a note today comparing what's happening in France versus what's happening here.
因为确实有很多相似之处。
Because there are real parallels.
法国和美国的债务占GDP的比例差不多，都在120%左右。
The debt to GDP in France and The US is roughly the same, about 120%.
法国和我们一样，政治上完全瘫痪了。
France, like us, is completely politically paralyzed.
而且他们受制于欧元。
And they're beholden to the Euro.
但他们在削减赤字方面完全政治瘫痪，以至于一位总统候选人玛丽·勒庞甚至想把退休年龄从63岁降到60岁，这会让赤字更加严重。
But they're completely politically paralyzed about cutting the deficit to such a degree that one of the people who's running for president, Marie Le Pen, actually wants to reduce the retirement age from 63 years to 60, which would increase the deficit even more.
现在法国的利率在上升。
Rates are now marching higher in France.
并不是说我不担心赤字。
It's not that I don't have concerns about the deficit.
只是因为我们拥有世界储备货币，整个世界的金融体系都建立在美债之上，我看不到其他选择。
It's just that because we are the reserve currency of the world and the entire world functions on the entire financial system of planet Earth functions on treasuries, I don't see the alternative.
这么说吧。
Put it this way.
如果国债真的有严重的替代品，那我们就麻烦了。
If there was a serious alternative to treasuries, we'd be in trouble.
因为人们可能会说，我想持有……
Because people could could say, I want to own...
我不想……
I don't want...
我不会持有国债。
I'm not going to own treasuries.
我不会用国债做回购。
I'm not going to do repos with treasuries.
我会用，比如比特币之类的做回购。
I'm going to do repos with, I don't know, Bitcoin, whatever.
如果那真的可行，你担心的那些赤字问题就会严重得多。
And if that was a possibility, whatever problems that you're concerned about with the deficit would be much more
那我得反驳一下。
So let me push back.
我们也没有削减开支的意愿。
So we have no appetite to cut spending either.
可不是嘛。
No kidding.
没人愿意。
Nobody does.
两边都不愿意。
Neither side.
我们就像法国人一样，有一天醒来，法国因为担心自己融资能力，决定推高收益率。
We're just like the French in So that we wake up one day and in France they decide to send yields higher because they're concerned about their ability to fund themselves.
三年前英国也有类似时刻，她（首相）就下台了。
The list trust moment three years ago in The UK, same thing, she's gone.
因为会有这样的时期。
I mean, because you have these periods of time.
我们的债券市场可能正在经历一点这种情况。
We might be experiencing a little bit of that in our bond market.
原因是，好吧，我们因为经济增长而走高。
The reason that, okay, we're moving higher because of economic growth.
好吧，我们确实在一定程度上是这样，但也许其中一部分是期限溢价，即人们所承担的风险。
Okay, we are to some degree, but maybe part of it's a term premium of what people risk people.
让我给你几个数据。
Let me give you a couple of stats here.
美元占世界储备货币的57%。
The dollar is 57% of the world's reserve currency.
几十年前是71%。
It was 71% a couple decades ago.
它在下降，但仍然占主导地位。
It's dropping, still dominant.
它不会消失。
It's not going anywhere.
各国央行，全球央行，第一大持有资产不是美国国债。
Central banks, global central banks, number one holding is not US treasuries.
是黄金，占27%，美国国债占22%。
It's gold at 27% treasuries are 22%.
现在黄金又涨了。
And now gold's gone up.
这显然在一定程度上超过了美国国债。
It's the reason it's obviously passing it to a degree.
而且金砖国家之前一直在讨论要推出自己的货币。
And then the BRIC nations were talking about for a while coming up with their own currency.
所以这些潜在的因素让我有些担忧。
So there were things underpinning that concern me.
我们有点在玩火，我觉得我们想当然地认为美元还会是世界储备货币。
We're playing with fire in the sense of, I think we take for granted that the dollar is still gonna be the world's reserve currency.
听我说，你可能会把自己逼疯的。
Listen, you could drive yourself crazy.
可以
Could
确实不能让自己一直焦虑下去，但算一下账，如果这是你在为美国公司做承销的资产负债表，我记得玛丽·米克在2008年或2009年做过这个分析，那时候她在摩根士丹利，她真的做过。
literally not drive yourself sustainable, but the math, if this was the balance sheet that you were underwriting USA Inc, I think Mary Meeker did it in 2008, whenever that was in 2008 or '9, remember her Morgan Stanley, she actually did it.
她把美国当成一家公司来分析。
Let me treat The USA as if it was a company and you analyzed it.
所以不管怎样，有些事情确实让人担忧。
So anyway, there's some things that just concerning.
我不知道，就像你说的，谁愿意承受痛苦来帮我们摆脱困境呢。
I don't know to your point, who's willing to take pain to help us get us out of it.
我相信量化宽松会再次到来。
Believe QE is coming again.
你真的这么认为吗？
Do you really?
百分之百。
A 100%.
为什么？
Because?
为什么？
Because?
唯一的出路。
Only way out.
我不知道你怎么能……
I don't know how you're gonna...
你只能靠印钱来解决问题，后果以后再说。
You're gonna have to print your way out and deal with the consequences later.
真有意思，因为他那么反对量化宽松。
So funny because is so against QE.
对。
I mean, yes.
他还想要量化紧缩。
He also wanted the quantitative tightening.
你听说过关于缩减资产负债表的事吗？
Have you heard anything about the balance sheet reduction?
我没听说过什么量化紧缩。
I haven't heard no quantitative tightening.
反正，那些工作我一个都不想干。
Anyway, I wouldn't want any of those jobs.
我只是说，接受这个——
I'm just saying taking this-
哦，我同意你的看法。
Oh, I agree with you.
这是个吃力不讨好的活儿。
It's a tankless job.
你不能那样交易，比如，哦，我们要违约了。
You can't trade the way, Oh, we're gonna default.
我们不会……
We're not...
不是。
No.
我同意你的看法。
I'm I'm with you.
但你必须考虑到，市场会要求更高的收益率来……
But you have to incorporate the idea that there is a required higher yield to...
这很合理。
That's fair.
就是这样。
That's it.
所以我有点担心。
So I'm concerned.
好的。
Okay.
丹尼，谢谢你。
Danny, thank you.
谢谢你邀请我，史蒂夫。
Thanks for having me, Steve.
真的很棒。
Was really wonderful.
很高兴见到你。
Great to see you.
本播客仅供信息参考，不构成投资建议。
This podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
主持人和嘉宾可能持有讨论中提到的股票头寸。
The host and guests may hold positions and stocks discussed.
所表达的观点仅代表个人意见，并非推荐。
Opinions expressed on their own and not recommendations.
请自行做好尽职调查，并在做出任何投资决定前咨询持牌财务顾问。
Please do your own due diligence and consult a licensed financial adviser before making any investment decisions.
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