21. 未来的历程

预言家、预言、末日、科学预测。

Oracles, prophecies, apocalypse, scientific projection.

我们总是着眼于未来。

We're always looking to the future.

我们能预知未来会怎样吗？

Can we tell what the future holds?

这些问题在今年变得尤为紧迫。

These are questions that have been really very pressing this year.

接下来，我们在格拉斯哥举行的联合国气候变化大会将聚焦于整个地球的走向、人类的未来，以及世界是否会终结。

Coming up, we have in Glasgow United Nations Climate Change Conference focused on the question of where the entire planet is going, what the future of humanity is, whether the world is going to end.

当然，目前每天我们都在努力推测疫情的未来走向，封锁何时能结束，我们能否回归正常。

And, of course, daily at the moment, we are trying to work out what the future of the pandemic is, when the lockdown will be able to end, whether we're going to get back to normality.

和我在一起的是我的同谋者，多米尼克·桑德布鲁克。

With me here is my co conspirator, Dominic Sandbrook.

你好，多米尼克。

Hello, Dominic.

多米尼克，我想展望未来这件事本身并没有什么新奇的，对吧？

Dominic, I guess that there is nothing new about looking to the future, is there?

我的意思是，渴望知道未来会怎样，这几乎是人类永恒的追求。

I mean, this is pretty much a constant, wanting to know what it holds.

没错。

Yeah.

这可以说是人类历史中一种恒常的现象，不是吗？

It's a sort of constant of human history, isn't it?

所以，未来的历史这个主题有点奇怪，对吧？

So it's a slightly odd subject, isn't it, the history of the future?

因为当你作为一名历史学家时，你通常只写过去发生过的事情。

Because you think when you're a historian, you write about purely about what happened in the past.

但实际上，人们如何构想未来，是一个非常有趣的话题。

But actually how people thought of the future is a really interesting topic.

而且显然，这也让我们对当时的社会背景有了极大的了解，因为人们展望未来时，通常会投射出自己的焦虑，通常是自己的恐惧。

And obviously also, it tells you an enormous amount about the context because generally when people were looking forward, they project their own anxieties, usually their own fears.

我们一直都在这么做。

And we've always done it.

最早的宗教文本就已展望未来。

The earliest religious texts look into the future.

现在人们非常好奇世界将会变成什么样。

People are fascinated now by what the world will be like.

中国会统治世界吗？

Is China going to rule the world?

我们会全都化为一团火焰吗？

Are we going to all end up in a ball of flame?

因此，这实际上是一种非常有趣的方式，可以回溯前人对未来的想象。

So it's actually a really interesting way to look back at the imagination of the people who come before us.

我的意思是，你认为在鸡内脏中占卜未来和疫情初期我们几乎一无所知时，这两者之间是否存在某种质的差异？

I mean, do you think there's a kind of qualitative difference, say, between somebody looking in chicken guts to work out what the future holds and the level at the beginning of the pandemic when basically we knew very little.

当时人们显然知道得很少，但仍然渴望得到答案，于是人们纷纷传播答案。

And it was clear that people knew very little, but people still wanted answers, and so people were broadcasting answers.

这几乎表明，即使我们并不知道，我们也希望有人能告诉我们一些关于未来的事情。

It kind of suggests almost that even if we don't know, we would like to be told something about the future.

是的。

Yes.

我认为，不确定性带来的迷雾往往是最可怕的东西，不是吗？

I think the sort of fog of uncertainty is often the most frightening thing of all, isn't it?

但实际上，在某种程度上，你知道，半知半解是很危险的。

And actually but in some ways, you know, little knowledge is a dangerous thing.

如果你知道你只是在看一堆陈旧的内脏，至少你清楚自己处于什么境地。

If you know that you're just looking at a load of old guts, then at least you know where you stand.

而当你看到人们在推特上发布图表，他们只是早上在维基百科上查了点东西，就自以为成了流行病学专家。

Whereas, you know, when you're sort of people are tweeting graphs, and they've they've read you know, they've spent the morning on Wikipedia, so they're an expert in epidemiology.

我认为，这可能会把你引向一些非常黑暗的歧途。

That, I think, can lead you down some pretty dark rabbit holes.

是的。

Yeah.

但那些研究内脏的人，都是技艺高超的占卜者。

But I mean, the people looking into the guts, these were highly skilled diviners.

他们认为自己知道在做什么。

They thought that they knew what they were doing.

是的。

Yeah.

猜吧。

Guess.

从某种意义上说，那个在推特上发图表的人，其实也在做同样的事。

And in a sense, the guy on Twitter with a graph, I mean, he kinda doing the same.

所以我认为最大的区别是，如果你生活在——也许中世纪历史学家会说我在胡说八道。

So I think the big difference is, you know, if you were living in I mean, maybe medieval historians will say I'm talking nonsense.

我的感觉是，如果你生活在十二世纪，当你回望过去时，过去就是老国王统治的时代，或者是某某国王的时代之类的。

My sense is that if you were living in the sort of twelfth century and you and when you look to the past, the past was sort of in the old king's reign or in king so and so's reign or something.

你知道，那就是你对时间的感知。

You know, that was your sort of sense of time.

当你展望未来时，你会假设未来会大致与现在相似。

When you looked into the future, when you looked forward, you assumed that the future would look roughly like the present.

人们不会觉得人类会长出翅膀，或者会出现汽车之类的东西，因为社会长期以来一直非常稳定。

There was no sense that people will have wings or there will be cars or anything like that because society had been so stable for so long effectively.

但我认为，一旦发生了科学革命，关于变化的观念就开始深刻影响人们对未来的思考方式。

But I think once you had the scientific revolution, then thoughts about change really began to sort of color the way that people thought of the future.

因此，他们更多地从发明和技术的角度来思考未来，而不是国家或王朝的兴衰之类的事情。

So they thought about it in terms of inventions and technology rather than necessarily the rise and fall of states or of dynasties or something.

你觉得这是一个巨大的转变吗？

Do you think that's a big a big shift?

嗯，我认为中世纪的人们其实已经意识到未来可能会非常不同，这是因为圣经已经为他们写好了未来。

Well, I I think that, actually, people in the Middle Ages did have a sense that the future might be very different, and that's because it had been written for them in the Bible.

我知道你一听到这个想法可能会有点反感，

And I know you you you will kind of moan at the thought that

不。

No.

不。

No.

不。

No.

我就知道你要这么说。

I knew this was coming.

但我实际上认为，未来是被预设好的，并且有一个明确终点的这种观念是非常独特的。

But but I actually think that, the the idea that, in a sense, the future is written and that it has a definite endpoint is something that's quite distinctive.

因为事实上，世界上大多数社会在大多数时候都倾向于认为时间是循环的，即存在某种秩序，然后终结，再重新开始，如此周而复始。

Because actually, most societies, most time across most of the world, have tended to assume that time is circular so that there are orders of existence, then they end, and then they begin again, it just goes round and round.

但我们的文明，以及伊斯兰文明，都强烈地认为存在一个创世的起点，以及一个末日的终点。

But our civilization, Muslim civilization, both have this very strong idea that there's a point of creation, and then there is a point a kind of end of days.

我认为这或许至今仍在塑造着我们思考未来的方式。

And I think that that perhaps continues to structure the way that we think of

的的

the of the

直到今天。

future to this day.

我的意思是，我不知道这个问题的答案是什么，在非基督教、非穆斯林文明中，是否也有如此强烈的末日焦虑，担心气候变化会带来怎样的后果。

I mean, the kind I I and I don't know what the answer to this is, whether in non Christian, non Muslim civilizations, whether there is quite the same kind of apocalyptic sense of anxiety about where climate change might lead.

我的意思是，我并不否认这很有趣。

I mean, I'm I'm not denying That's interesting.

气候变化是一个巨大的威胁。

That climate change is a is a monstrous threat.

但我认为，我们在文化上被塑造得认为我们会犯错，然后会因罪恶而受到审判，惩罚将降临整个世界，带来可怕的灾难、瘟疫和饥荒等等。

But I think that we are culturally conditioned to expect that we sin, and we will then be judged for our sins, and the punishment will be visited on the entire world with terrible devastation and plagues and famines and things.

我认为，这种观念仍然是我们思维中根深蒂固的一部分。

And I think that that is still kind of part of our our our mental furniture.

我们有一种感觉，认为这个故事是有限的，是有终点的。

We have a sense of the story being finite, of the story having an end.

如果你想想——这虽然是个奇怪的例子，但维京人对诸神的黄昏的理解。

And if you think about I mean, this is a strange example, but the way the Vikings thought about Ragnarok.

在诸神的黄昏结束时，大地得以重生，这个故事再次开始。

So at the end of Ragnarok, the the earth is then reborn, and this sort of story starts again.

这在基督教或伊斯兰教的思想中并不如此，对吧？

That that's not what happens in in Christian thinking, is it, or Muslim thinking?

你知道，大地死亡，然后一切就结束了。

You know, the earth dies, and then that's it.

历史就此终结。

History comes to an end.

是的。

Yes.

但同样，关于诸神的黄昏，我们很难确定这种关于神与世界终结的愿景在多大程度上受到了基督教的影响。

But, again, with Ragnarok, it's difficult because we don't know the degree to which that vision of the end of the gods and the end of the world is kind of contaminated by Christianity.

是的。

Yeah.

没错。

Yeah.

所以它是后来才被写下来的，对吧？

So it's written down much later, isn't it?

是的。

Yeah.

所以很难说清楚。

So it's it's it's very difficult to tell.

但我确实认为，时间向前推进这种观念，与时间的循环形成对比。

But I do think that kind of the idea that time goes forward, contrast is time's arrow against time's wheel.

我们显然生活在一个时间单向流动的文明中。

And we definitely live in a time's arrow civilization.

而且我确信，当你谈到技术和技术发展带来的巨大影响时，

And I'm sure that that then you talk about the huge impact that technology has in technological development.

这与工业革命时期越来越强烈的一种感觉融合在一起：是的，未来将截然不同。

That then fuses with that sense that you increasingly get with the Industrial Revolution, that, yeah, the future will just be qualitatively different.

但对我们来说，理解这一点并不是问题，因为我们早已在文化上适应了时间以单一连续流向前推进的理念。

But it's not a problem for us to comprehend that because we're so civilizationally adjusted to the idea that time is going forward in a single continuous stream.

但这就是进步的理念，对吧？

But it's sort of the idea of progress, isn't it?

我们生活在一个向前发展的理念深深植根于我们世界观中的世界。

We live in a world where the idea of sort of forward movement is hardwired into our sense of the world.

实际上，我想对于1700年以前的人们来说，他们的前进感几乎完全是道德或神学意义上的。

And actually, I guess for people before well, my feeling would be that for people before about 1700, their sense of forward movement was purely a sort of almost a moral one or a a theological one.

所以，没错。

So Yeah.

即将到来的是第五王国，还有基督的第二次降临和世界的末日。

What's coming is going to be the sort of fifth monarchy and, you know, the the the second coming of Christ and the end of the world.

而1700年之后，人们期待的是从黄瓜中提取阳光、拥有会飞的马和马车之类的东西。

Whereas after 1700 or so, what's coming is people are going to extract sunbeams from cucumbers and will have flying horses and carriages or whatever.

这些期望变得不再那么充满道德色彩。

The expectations become much less morally freighted.

我的意思是，我认为中世纪历史上确实存在技术突然兴起的时刻。

I mean, I think that there are kind of moments in medieval history where technology does kick in.

所以到了一月左右，你开始感觉到技术发展与某种道德觉醒同步发生。

So around the year January, you do start to get a sense that technological development is coinciding with a kind of moral reawakening.

欧洲被一片白色的教堂群所覆盖这一观念，与人们意识到生活某种程度上正在变好这一事实相吻合。

The idea that Europe is being clothed with a veil of white churches coincides with the fact that people are conscious that, in a sense, life is kind of getting better.

但我完全同意，现代时期技术变革的速度和节奏才是真正不同且具有变革性的。

But I completely agree that it's the speed and pace of technological change that you get in the modern period that is really different and transformative.

那么，你认为我们如今的科学愿景常常是反乌托邦的，这种将未来视为由科技和科学塑造的观念，究竟可以追溯到多久以前呢？

And so do you think that the kind of scientific visions that we have now, are often dystopias, how far back do they go, do you think, the sense of the future as being structured by technology and science?

我觉得这非常有趣，因为有些……

I think that's really interesting because some of

我的意思是，关于未来的伟大预言可以追溯到1733年。

the I mean, a great prediction of the future come from 1733.

科学革命的核心人物之一是一位名叫塞缪尔·马登的英国国教牧师。

So the sort of heart of the scientific revolution is from a fellow called Samuel Madden, who is an Anglican clergyman.

他写了一本名为《二十世纪回忆录》的书，如今几乎无人能读，实际上也无人阅读。

He wrote a book called Memoirs of the Twentieth Century, pretty much unreadable now and and unread, actually.

尽管这一切变革正在进行，工业革命也真正开始兴起，他却完全从能引起你兴趣的角度来看待。

And even amidst all this change and, you know, the industrial revolution is really kicking off, he saw it purely in terms that would appeal to you.

因此，他认为世界将面临一场巨大的对抗，即耶稣会士与自然神论者之间的对抗。

So he thought the the the world was going to have this great confrontation in Jesuit the Jesuits and the Deists.

这可以说是未来的一种意识形态冲突。

This was kind of ideological conflict of the future.

他痴迷于教皇。

And he was obsessed with the pope.

而且，教皇势力将统治世界，诸如此类的事情。

And, you know, the the papal forces were were gonna take over the world and all this kind of thing.

你可能会想，他能错到什么地步？

And you kinda think, how wrong can you be?

你知道，显然，因为我们知道，在近代早期后期，教皇的权力已经严重衰退。

You know, obviously, because we know that papal power was in, you know, deep decline in the sort of early modern later early modern period.

但没错，这表明问题并不仅仅关乎技术。

But, yeah, that's a sign that it's not just about technology.

道德往往是其中非常重要的一部分。

Often morality is a huge part of it.

所以道德在赫胥黎的《美丽新世界》对未来世界的构想中也有所体现。

So morality is there in kind of Brave New World, Aldous Huxley's vision of the future.

这种观点认为，真正有趣的不是科学的技术成就，而是它们对我们行为以及伦理规范等方面的影响。

And this sort of sense that it's not so much the sort of technological accomplishments of science that are interesting, but it's their effect on our behavior and on the and on sort of ethical, you know, conduct and all that sort of thing.

我认为这始终是其中非常重要的一部分。

I think that's always a big always a a huge part of it.

汤姆，我知道这有点跑题了。

Tom, know this is slightly going off piste.

我刚才在回复时被什么分心了？

What's just been distracting me during my reply?

你身后是不是有伊恩两人的照片？

Do you have a picture of Ian both of them just over your shoulder?

我有。

I do.

是的。

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

这是别人在我们婚礼时送给我的，上面有这位伟人的亲笔签名，祝福我们幸福。

It was given to me on for our wedding, and it's a signed photograph of the great man wishing giving us best wishes.

我们得剪掉这段了。

We're gonna have to cut this.

不，不，不，我觉得听众会喜欢这段的。

No, no, no, I think the listeners will love this.

我的意思是，你完全符合人们对你的期待，这太棒了。

I mean, I'd like to it's so good that you absolutely conform to the expectations that people would have of you.

我的意思是，他们真的会以为这就是实际情况，而事实确实如此。

I mean, they really would think that this is what's going on, and it is.

嗯，我得说，当初我收到这份礼物作为婚礼贺礼时，如果我能预见未来，我会非常开心知道现在这样。

Well, I have to say that when I got it for our wedding, if I looked into the future, I'd be very happy to know that Yeah.

当时我正在听一个播客，当然，那是在我结婚的时候。

It was being switched on a podcast, which of course, you know, when I got married,

我根本不知道

I had no idea what

这个播客是什么。

the podcast was.

是的，那就是

Yeah, that's the

事情。

thing.

这让我们又回到了原点。

Which brings us back.

是的，这有点跑题了。

Yeah, that is going off piste.

所以让我再说一遍，你是研究现代史的学者。

So let me again, you're a historian of the modern period.

你认为我们对未来的理解以及这种理解的变化正在加速吗？

Do you think that our understanding of the future and the way that it changes is speeding up?

不，我认为并没有加速。

No, I don't think it's speeding up.

我认为这明显经历了不同的阶段。

I think there are obvious different phases.

显然，我们对未来的理解经历了不同的阶段。

There there are clearly, you know, different phases of our understanding of the future.

所以在二十世纪之交，当人们思考未来时，他们是从国家冲突的角度来思考的，对吧？

So at the turn of the twentieth century, when people thought about the future, they they thought about it in terms of state conflict, didn't they?

那时全是关于入侵和世界大战的恐慌故事。

It was all invasion stories and scare stories about world wars.

而在二十世纪中期，人们对未来的一些极具影响力的看法，比如《1984》，则聚焦于极权主义和政治意识形态。

And then the visions that people had of the future in the sort of mid twentieth century, the really sort of influential ones like 1984, they're about totalitarianism and political ideology.

而我们自大约七十年代和八十年代以来的展望，显然曾预期过第三次世界大战。

And the ones we've had since roughly the I mean, was obviously the expectations of World War three in the seventies and eighties.

是的。

Yeah.

那是一个庞大的传统，对吧？

That was a massive tradition, wasn't it?

我的意思是，

I mean,

那已经消失了，不是吗？

that was Well, gone now, hasn't it?

现在完全看不到这种现象了。

You don't see it at all now.

我的意思是，是的。

I mean Yeah.

你的意思是，你还记得那本书吗？

Mean, you remember that book?

我们在开始之前还讨论过它。

We were talking about it before we started.

《第三次世界大战》，由约翰·哈克特爵士撰写。

The Third World War by general sir John Hackett.

是的。

Yes.

他们把伯明翰炸平了。

White they wipe out Birmingham.

是的。

Yeah.

他们向伯明翰投下了一颗核弹，俄罗斯人。

They drop a nuclear bomb on Birmingham, the Russians.

还有那些情节，战争模拟，所有这些关于核末日的可怕设想。

And there was all that stuff, threads, the war game, all these terrifying visions of of nuclear apocalypse.

但事实上，从那以后，我的意思是，它们几乎总是围绕着两件事。

But, actually, what we've had since then, I mean, they're almost all always about two things.

它们要么是关于计算机和虚拟世界。

They're either about computers and sort of virtual worlds.

所以，像《银翼杀手》这样的作品，讲的是机器人，或者关于环境灾难。

So the sort of or or Blade Runner, I suppose, which about robots, or they're about environmental catastrophe.

这正是我们的启示录，不是吗？

And that's our big I mean, that's our book of revelation, isn't it?

这正是我们的执念。

That's our obsession.

也就是说，我认为是的。

That is I I think yes.

我的意思是，我

That's to say, I

我认为气候变化确实正在加剧这种趋势。

think I think climate change definitely is is absolutely running with that.

我写过一本关于那一年一月的书，出于各种显而易见的原因，那本书充满了末日焦虑，虽然这一点存在争议，但我认为很明显，这种焦虑当时非常盛行。

I mean, I wrote a book about the year January, which for all kinds of obvious reasons was apocalyptic anxieties, I think is debated, but I think it's pretty clear that they were very much part of the climate of the time.

当时存在着各种焦虑、恐惧和绝望。

And there were all these kinds of anxieties and terrors and dread.

在我写那本书的时候，我读了詹姆斯·洛夫洛克的作品，他写了一篇特别令人恐惧的警示文，预言了即将发生的一切，基本认为到2030年世界将不再适宜居住。

And while I was writing that, I read James Lovelock, who wrote a particularly terrifying kind of Jeremiad about what was going to happen and essentially saying that the world would be uninhabitable by 2030.

他所使用的语言令人毛骨悚然地似曾相识。

And the language that he was using was eerily reminiscent.

瘟疫、饥荒，没错。

Plagues, famines Yeah.

而且是为了我们的罪孽。

And and for our sin.

我的意思是，我认为这才是关键所在。

I mean, that's the that's, I think, is is the crucial thing.

而我同意，从某种意义上说，计算机和网络技术，尤其是后者，是即使对1970年的人而言也完全无法想象的。

Whereas I I agree that, in a sense, the computers and online particularly is something that would be absolutely unimaginable to I mean, even even to someone in 1970, I guess.

是的。

Yeah.

也许菲利普·K·迪克……

Well, maybe Philip K.

菲利普·K·迪克，惭愧地说，我从未读过他的作品，但他是五十年代的作家，

Dick, who I have ashamed to say I've never read, but I mean, he kind of When's he writing 50s, is

他？

he?

是的，五十年代。

Yeah, 50s.

他开始逐渐捕捉到那种氛围。

He's kind of starting to pick up on that.

但威廉·吉布森之类的人则远远走在了时代前列，如今一切都围绕着计算机。

But William Gibson and people like that are just ahead of the curve, and now, s all about computers.

是的，它

Yeah, it

这很有趣，不是吗？

s interesting, isn it?

因为你知道，我写过一些关于战后英国的书，从一开始，计算机和技术就始终存在于背景之中。

Because I mean, I ve written, as you know, these sort of books about postwar Britain, and the computers and technology are always there in the background right from the beginning.

所以我的书从五十年代初、五十年代中期开始。

So my book starts in the early 50s, mid 50s.

1955年，《每日镜报》做了一个大型系列报道，名为《机器人革命》，讲述机器人——他们当时这么称呼——将如何改变世界。

And in 1955, The Daily Mirror did a big, huge series called The Robot Revolution about how robots, as they called them, were going to change the world.

长期以来，人们期望计算机会让一切变得如此美好，人们会有大量的闲暇时间。

And the expectation for a long time was that computers would just would make everything so great, and you'd just have so much leisure.

还有喷气背包。

And jet packs.

是的。

Yeah.

嗯，这显然是六十年代那种乌托邦式的乐观情绪。

Well, it was well, obviously, you've that sixties sort of utopianism.

我的意思是，这种情绪已经完全消失了。

I mean, that has completely been lost.

你在六十年代的各个地方都能看到这种趋势，无论是时尚、设计，还是城市规划，那种更加繁忙、充满活力的风格在六十年代变得非常流行。

And you saw that everywhere in the sixties in in fashion, in design, in the in the designer cities, you know, the sort of local busier look that became very popular in the sixties.

到了七十年代，这种愿景消失了，取而代之的是《星球大战》所描绘的未来——我知道这已经很久远了，但那种未来图景比二月还要肮脏。

And then in the seventies, that died, And you had I mean, obviously, Star Wars' vision of the I mean, I know it's a long, long time ago, but this vision of the future is is a bit dirtier than February.

接着是《银翼杀手》，这显然是菲利普·K·迪克作品的改编，满是倾盆大雨、痛苦与污染，是一种纯粹的反乌托邦景象。

And then you have Blade Runner, which is obviously an adaptation of Philip K Dick where it's all driving rain and and misery and pollution and and and, you know, this sort of this sort of pure dystopia.

而自那以后，我们就一直停留在这种状态中。

And that and we've remained there ever since.

而且，如果我们之前播客里讨论过科马克·麦卡锡《路》这本书的话，你会发现，这种愿景如今已经全面渗透了。

And if anything, when we we talked about the road, I think, in Cormac McCarthy's book in a previous podcast, you know, that's become that sort of vision has now become all enveloping.

现在你再也看不到任何对未来的乐观预测了。

You never see an optimistic prediction of the future now.

一切都不是关于技术逃避主义——因为你的工作已被电脑和机器人摧毁，就是关于生活在末日废土中——因为你的气候已被彻底摧毁。

It's all about either a withdrawal into technological escapism because your jobs have been destroyed by computers and robots, or it's just sort of living in an apocalyptic wasteland because your climate has been completely ravaged.

但我很好奇，回到

But I wonder, going back to the

《启示录》这本书，这是否仅仅因为描绘灾难在某种程度上更容易、更有趣？

book of Revelation, whether that's simply because it's kind of easier and more fun in a way to portray a disaster than it is.

所以你有末日四骑士、瘟疫等等。

So you've got the horsemen of the apocalypse and plagues and everything.

然后有一段简短的经文描述了新耶路撒冷降临时有多么美好，但接着就结束了，因为实际上很难描述新耶路撒冷会是什么样子。

And then you've got a quite short passage about how great it's going to be when the New Jerusalem descends, but then it ends because it's actually very hard to describe what the New Jerusalem is going to be.

这挺无聊的。

It's quite boring.

这基本上就像马克思主义，不是吗？

That's basically just like Marxism, isn't it?

我的意思是，它花了大量篇幅谈论如何实现那个新世界，但新世界本身却从未被真正描述过。

I mean, it spends a lot of time talking about the struggles to bring, you know, the the new world, but then the new world itself is never actually described.

因为谁在乎呢？

Because who cares?

你知道，就是看着花盆，悠闲地去乡间散步，这并不

You know, it's just looking at pot plants and strolling in country walks, and that's not

有趣。

very interesting.

对。

Right.

好吧，多米尼克，我要做个预言：我们马上就要休息一下。

Well, Dominic, I'm gonna give a prophecy, and the prophecy is we're going to go for a break in a minute.

回来后，我们会看看大家的问题，并尝试回答它们。

And when we come back, we're going to look at people's questions and try and answer them.

这就是我的预言。

So that's my prophecy.

我们来看看它会不会成真。

Let's see if it comes true.

欢迎回到《历史其余部分》。

Welcome back to The Rest is History.

本周 again 有两期节目。

Two episodes again this week.

周四，我们将讨论我们评选的十大奇怪战争。

On Thursday, we will be discussing our top 10 weird wars.

我们准备了一些极其古怪的战争来讨论。

We've got some fantastically bizarre ones lined up to discuss.

但现在，让我们继续来看你们的问题。

But for now, let's move on to your questions.

多米尼克，我们有问题是吗？

Dominic, do we have any questions?

有的。

We do.

汤姆，这个问题简直是送给你的礼物。

Tom, this first one is an absolute gift for you.

这是来自乔尔·科珀斯密斯的。

So it's from Joel Coppersmith.

他说，古人相信德尔斐神谕吗？

And he says, did the ancients believe in the Delphic Oracle?

在你回答之前，我先说一点。

Now just before you answer that, I will just say this.

在《刺客信条：奥德赛》中，你发现那位 oracle 女士实际上是利西亚。

In Assassin's Creed Odyssey, you find out that the the woman who is the Oracle is actually Lithia.

她为反派组织宇宙教团工作，并且知道自己在提供虚假的预言。

She is working for the cult of Cosmos who are the villains, and she knows she's giving false prophecies.

所以这就是我的答案。

So that's my answer.

哦，真的吗？

Oh, really?

是的。

Yeah.

你一直避开了这个，对吧？

You've steered clear of this, haven't you?

因为你会觉得你会上瘾。

Because you'd think you'll be addicted.

但是

But

是的。

Yes.

和我不碰海洛因的原因一样。

For the same reason I haven't taken up heroin.

我确信它很棒，但它有一些糟糕的副作用。

I'm sure it's great, but it kind of has bad bad side effects.

因为我家里有个九岁的孩子，所以我们并没有避开它。

Since I have a nine year old in the house, we we haven't steered clear of it.

是的。

Yes.

当然。

Absolutely.

当然，古希腊人之所以如此，是因为如果不这么做，他们就不会去咨询神谕了。

The the Greeks, of of course, because otherwise, they wouldn't have gone and consulted it.

否则，这就成了一种徒劳的举动。

Otherwise, it would have been a kind of wasted effort.

但我认为，希腊人看待他们的神谕、尤其是阿波罗神谕的独特之处在于，他们预期神谕会充满诡计。

But what's distinctive, I think, about the the way that the Greeks view their oracles and perhaps Apollo's oracle specifically is that they expect it to be tricksy.

他们预期神谕会含蓄曲折。

They expect it to be elliptical.

因此，由我翻译的希罗多德在其巨著中描述了埃塞俄比亚人咨询神谕时的情景：他们会得到一个答案，然后完全按照神谕的指示去做。

So Herodotus, in his great work, translated by me, describes how the Ethiopians, when they consult the oracle, they will get an answer, and they will do exactly what the oracle tells them.

希罗多德显然认为这种做法有些不同寻常和奇怪。

And Herodotus obviously sees this as being kind of slightly unusual and odd.

他觉得奇怪的原因是，希腊人普遍认为阿波罗的答复难以理解。

And the reason that he sees it odd is that it's taken for granted by the Greeks that Apollo's answers will be hard to understand.

因此，阿波罗被称为‘洛克西阿斯’，意思就是‘迂回之人’。

So he's called loxias, which essentially means the oblique one.

而最著名的例子就是吕底亚国王克罗伊斯，他正准备与波斯国王居鲁士开战——居鲁士是当时迅速崛起的强权，克罗伊斯不确定是否该发动先发制人的攻击。

And again and again, the famous example is Croesus, the king of Lydia, who is preparing to go to war with Cyrus, king of the Persians, who's very much the rising power, not sure whether he should launch a preemptive attack.

于是他前往德尔斐，就像如今政府可能会去智库，或甚至间谍机构咨询一样，问：‘我该不该进攻波斯人？’

So goes to Delphi rather in the way that a government now might go to a think tank or perhaps a spy agency or something and says, should I attack the Persians?

德尔斐神谕回答说：如果你跨过那条分隔你与居鲁士王国的河流，一个伟大的帝国将覆灭。

And the Delphic Oracle replies, if you cross the river that marks the frontier between you and Cyrus's kingdom, a great empire will fall.

克罗伊斯认为这意味着居鲁士的帝国将会覆灭。

And Croesus assumes that this means that it's Cyrus' empire that will fall.

但当然，覆灭的是克罗伊斯自己的帝国

But of course, it's Croesus' empire

帝国覆灭了。

that falls.

没错。

Yeah.

而这一神谕的精妙之处在于，它是一个不可证伪的论断，因为你知道，其中一个帝国

And the genius of that is, of course, that it's a malfalf falsifiable argument because, you know, an em one of the

两个帝国中总有一个会覆灭。

two empires is gonna fall.

但这种事情不是经常发生吗？

But that happened all the time, didn't it?

我的意思是，马其顿的腓力在准备进攻波斯时，曾前往德尔斐神庙求问神谕，得到的回答是‘公牛已被缠绕’。

I mean, so Philip Of Macedon, when he was about to launch his attack on Persia, he went to the oracle at Delphi, and he got his message that said, wreathed is the bull.

时辰临近了，之类的。

The hour is near or something.

杀害你的人就在身边。

The one who will kill him is at hand.

他以为，太好了。

And he thought, great.

我要杀死波斯国王，成为世界之主。

I'm gonna kill the king of Persia and and become emperor of the world.

但几个月后，他自己却被刺杀身亡了。

And and then he died about he was killed himself, assassinated, you know, a couple of months later.

所以，咨询德尔斐神谕显然是一种常见主题。

So this was obviously a theme of consulting the Delphic Oracle.

你认为，归根结底，你最终会被自己的预言反噬。

You think, you know, basically, you end up being stabbed in the back by your own prophecy.

我认为，这种艺术在于像穆斯塔达马斯那样——我相信他稍后会提到——以一种足够模糊的方式表述事情，使得无论发生什么，你都能事后将事件与之对应起来。

I think the art was either to give, rather like Mustardamas, who I'm sure will come on to you later, to to to frame things in such a way that they you know, they're sufficiently vague that you can kind of pattern, events, almost, know, whatever happens.

我认为，除此之外，德尔斐的祭司们是希腊人中唯一的职业祭司群体，人们不仅来自希腊世界各地，甚至来自希腊世界之外，因此带来了各种信息。

I think on top of that, there is a degree to which the priests at Delphi They're the only professional priesthood that the Greeks have, and people are coming from across not just the Greek world, but beyond the Greek world as well, and therefore bringing information with them.

因此，从这个角度来看，祭司们可能是希腊最了解国际局势的人。

And so the priests, to that extent, are probably the best informed people in Greece about what is going on internationally.

这使他们或许比任何人都拥有更广阔的事件视角。

So that gives them perhaps a kind of broader perspective on events than anyone else has.

所以，这可能是他们融入预言中的一种优势。

So that's maybe something that they can feed into their prophecies.

我认为还有一个著名例子：当波斯人在四月入侵希腊时，形势看起来极为不利。

I think also, there's a famous example when the Persians invade Greece in April, and the odds look overwhelming.

雅典人前往德尔斐，问：‘会发生什么？’

And the Athenians go to Delphi and say, you know, what's going to happen?

最初的神谕基本上是：‘快逃命吧。’

And the first oracle is basically, run for your lives.

你们会被碾碎的。

You're going to get crushed.

你们毫无希望。

You have no hope.

雅典将会被烧毁。

Athens is going to burn.

雅典人因此陷入绝望。

And the Athenians are devastated.

然后一位祭司走出来，说：去再问一次吧。

And then a priest comes out and says, well, go and ask again.

于是他们再次进去，得到了著名的第二个预言：是的，雅典确实会被烧毁，我很遗憾。

So they go in, and they get a famous second prophecy where the Athenians are told that, yeah, Athens is going to burn, I'm afraid.

这是无法避免的。

There's no way around that.

但木墙将会守护你们。

But the wooden wall will hold.

然后它以萨拉米斯岛的提及作为结尾。

And then it ends with a reference to Salamis, the island of Salamis.

果然，雅典被焚毁了。

And sure enough, Athens does burn.

那堵木墙，我。

The wooden wall, I.

希腊舰队，雅典舰队，确实坚守住了。

E, the Greek fleet, the Athenian fleet, does hold.

这场战役在萨拉米斯爆发。

And this battle is fought at Salamis.

这一点非常清楚。

And it's pretty clear.

我认为这个神谕是真实的。

I think that this oracle is an authentic one.

我不认为它是事后附会的。

I don't think it's a back projection.

所以某种程度上，这是最令人印象深刻的

And so in a way, it's the most impressive

这非常令人印象深刻。

That's very impressive.

去实现。

To get.

我的意思是，你知道的？

I mean, it's you know?

但我认为，如果德尔斐的祭司们在思考希腊人如何生存的方式，他们会意识到雅典的战略是放弃雅典，转而依靠舰队。

But I think that the Delphic priests, if they were thinking of a way in which the Greeks could survive, they would be aware that the Athenian strategy was to abandon Athens to take to their fleet.

如果希腊人要赢得一场海战，那一定是通过诱使波斯人进入萨拉米斯海峡。

And if there was going to be a naval battle that the Greeks were going to win, it was going to be by the Greeks luring the Persians into the straits at Salamis.

那是他们获胜的唯一机会。

That was their only chance of victory.

所以我认为，这里 again，你能看到他们在玩文字游戏。

So I think there, again, you can see that they're kind of taking a pun.

所以，他们传达了一个宣告你们注定失败的神谕，然后又给出了希腊人获胜的唯一机会。

So they're delivering one oracle that says you're doomed, and then they're delivering another one which gives up the only chance the Greeks had a victory.

所以我认为这就是它的运作方式。

So I think that's kind of how it works.

但我相信，当然，人们之所以相信，是因为如果不相信，就不会去求问神谕。

But I'm sure that I mean, of course, people believed it because otherwise, you wouldn't go and consult it.

在我们转向其他问题之前，关于神谕，我最后再想一点。

Just one last thought on oracles before we move on to the other questions.

它们真的很奇怪，不是吗？

They were pretty weird, weren't they?

我认为我说得没错，位于锡瓦的阿蒙神庙的神谕，当你去求问时，神谕是一块大石头，放在一个托盘上，由祭司举在头顶。

So I think I'm right in saying the oracle at the Temple Of Ammon in Siwa, when you went and consulted that, the oracle was this big stone that was on a sort of tray that the priest held above their heads.

你把问题写在纸上，祭司则把答案写在其他纸片上，放在地上，然后随着石头的指引，这些纸片会随机移动，指向写有正确答案的那张纸。

And you asked the questions on a piece of paper, and and the priest put answers on other bits of paper on the floor, and then they sort of shuffled around as the stone directed them towards the piece of paper that had the appropriate answer.

你听说过这个故事吗？

Have you heard this story?

我认为，在古代，仅仅让一个人直接给出答案被视为太过简单。

Well, I think that one of the key things in antiquity is that just having a bloke who gives answers was seen as being too easy.

不可靠。

Unreliable.

所以在德尔斐，是地底冒出的气体。

So at Delphi, it's fumes coming up.

在塞瓦伊，你已经描述过；而在希腊北部的多多纳，是圣橡树叶子的沙沙声。

At Seaway, you have, you've described, at Dodona in Northern Greece, it's the rustling of the sacred oak, the leaves.

所以本质上，这一切都关乎解释，这样你就能给出你认为可能成真的答案，而在许多情况下，也是来咨询者想听到的答案。

So essentially, it's all about interpretation so that you can give the answer that you think is likely to come true, and in many cases, what the person who's coming wants to hear.

但人们从不回来要求退款，也从不回来怒气冲冲地说：‘你们让我去耕这块地，或者娶某人，结果却出了问题！’

But people never come ask their money back, or they never come and say, you told me to plow this field or to marry so and so or whatever, and they're burning with rage.

总有一种方式能证明是神明向你显现了启示。

There there there's always a way that you can show that the the god came to you.

因为克罗伊斯向阿波罗抱怨，而阿波罗救了他，使他免于被活活烧死，并说：‘其实我告诉过你正确的答案，只是你没正确理解罢了。'

Well, because Chrysus complains to Apollo and says, you shaftedly And Apollo comes and rescues him from being burnt alive on a pyre and says, well, actually, I told you right, you didn't interpret correctly.

而且，因为你对我这么好，我设法让你多活了几年，虽然你注定要失败，但我还是帮你多当了几年国王，才被推翻。

And anyway, because you were so good to me, I managed to give you a few years extra because of necessity doomed you, but I managed to get you a few years extra ruling as king before you got toppled.

别再抱怨了。

So stop moaning.

克罗伊斯接受了阿波罗所说的话的公正性。

And Croesus accepts the justice of what Apollo says.

这下他被教训了。

And that's him schooled.

我们还有别的吗？

Do we have another?

有。

Yes.

我们快进一点吧，因为已经讲完末日了。

Let's whiz on a bit because we've done apocalypse.

我们已经讲完神谕了。

We've done oracles.

乔伊·麦卡锡想知道你对诺stradamus的看法。

Joey McCarthy wants to know what you think of Nostradamus.

他说，希特勒、伦敦大火、长崎、肯尼迪，他每次都说中了。

He says, Hitler, Great Fire of London, Nagasaki, JFK, he's been on the money every time.

我得告诉你吗？

Do you have tell you?

汤姆，你是诺stradamus的粉丝吗？

Are you a Nostradamus fan, Tom?

嗯，显然我12岁左右时曾痴迷地读过他的预言，里面满是关于1999年将爆发第三次世界大战的预言，对吧？

Well, obviously, when I was about 12, I read them obsessively, and it was full of prophecies about, I think, the Third World War happening in 1999, wasn't it?

没错，

A Exactly,

某种意义上，伟大的火之神将从天而降。

kind of, great God of fire will descend from the sky.

所以我当时被吓得不轻，但那件事并没有发生。

So I was pretty terrified by that, but it didn't happen.