43. 1940

因此，他 arguably 输掉了这场战争。

And as a result of that, he arguably loses a war.

这真的非常引人入胜。

It's really, really fascinating.

我的意思是，我们必须理解的是，在德军使用的135个师中，这些机动装甲师每个师大约有15,000人。

I I mean, the point is is that what one has to understand is these mobile armored divisions out of the 135 divisions that are used, and the division is about 15,000 men.

这就是我们在二战中衡量军队规模所依据的单位类型。

That is the kind of unit by which we judge sizes of armies in the second world war.

在德军用于西线进攻的135个师中，只有16个是机械化师。

Of the 135 divisions that the Germans use in the in the attack in the West, only 16 are motorized.

其余的部队只能靠双脚行军，或者使用马车。

So the rest are using their own two feet or they're using horse and cart.

马匹，成千上万的马匹。

Horse is like horses on the thousands of horses.

大量的马匹。

Loads of horses.

是的

Yep.

是的

Yep.

是的

Yep.

第一次世界大战有150万辆马，第二次世界大战有250万辆。

1,500,000 horses in in the first world war, two and a half million in second.

因此，这16个机械化师承担了所有艰苦的作战任务。

And so it is these 16 divisions which are motorized, which are mechanized, which are doing all the hard years.

它们是真正的矛头，而那些骑马和步行的士兵则是矛杆部分。

They are very much the kind of the point of the spear, The horses and the guys on their feet are the kind of shaft of the spear.

它们承担了所有艰苦的战斗，但这完全是前所未有的。

And and they are doing all the hard yards, but this is completely new.

你知道，他们以前从未这样做过。

You know, they haven't done this before.

所以那些老派的、典型的将领，比如冯·克莱斯特、冯·伦德施泰特，这些古老的普鲁士贵族出身的将军们。

So those old crustier kind of, you know, the Von Kleis, the Von Rundstedts, these older Prussian aristocratic kind of generals.

这一切都是全新的，他们担心突击部队推进得太远了。

This is all new, and they get nervous that the the spearhead is overreaching itself.

因此，冯·克莱斯特，作为其中一个主力装甲集群的指挥官，正在率领部队从南方实施大范围包抄，穿越阿登地区，跨越默兹河。

So Von Kleist, who is commander of one of the great panzer groups, which is doing the the southern sweep through army group a, sweeping around from the south, southern part of it through the Ardennes and all the rest of it, getting across the River Meuse.

他开始担心装甲师推进得太快，与后面缓慢行进的步兵师拉开了过大距离。

He starts to get nervous that the panzer divisions are overextending and getting too far ahead of the infantry divisions, which are sort of plodding on behind.

于是他下达了暂停前进的命令。

So he imposes a halt order.

陆军总参谋长哈尔德将军意识到，这在关键时刻是灾难性的——此时德军正要完成对法国北部英法联军的全面合围。

General Hulda, who is the chief of staff of the army, realizes that this is catastrophic just at the moment they've got of of closing in a complete encirclement around the around the French and British army in Northern France.

现在不是谨慎行事的时候。

This is not the time to be cautious.

现在是必须全力猛攻的时刻。

This is the time to absolutely go for it.

于是他撤销了命令。

And so he rescinds the order.

第二天，5月24日，希特勒亲自前来会见A集团军群总司令伦德施泰特，问：‘你们的装甲师都在干什么？’

The following day, the May 24, Hitler turns up to see, von Rundstedt, who is the overall commander of army group a, and says, what are all your panzer divisions doing?

伦德施泰特回答：‘我不知道，因为哈尔德已经把它们全部调往B集团军群了，就是从比利时和荷兰北部推进的那支部队。',

He goes, well, I don't know because, Halder's transferred them all over to army group b, which is the ones coming over at the top through Belgium and Holland.

所以它们现在不再归我指挥了。

So the they're no longer part of my command.

希特勒对此勃然大怒。

And Hitler absolutely goes ballistic at this.

你想想，哈尔德怎么敢擅自做出这种决定？布劳希奇不是陆军总司令吗？

You know, how dare Holder kind of, you know, make this decision Von Braucher, she was commander in chief of the army?

他们怎么敢在没先征得我同意的情况下做这种决定？

How dare they make this decision without consulting me first?

把装甲部队的精锐调往另一个集团军群，这是何等重大的事。

There's something as major as transferring the panzer elites over to a different army group.

你知道吗？

You know?

我完全撤销了这个命令。

I'm just completely I I I countermand that order completely.

你现在重新掌权，由你决定何时释放装甲部队，让他们再次前进。

You're now back in charge, and it's up to you when you when you release the panzers and let them go on the march again.

这使布劳希奇蒙羞。

And and so this humiliates von Brauchitz.

他让哈尔德丢脸。

He humiliates Halder.

他们完全站不住脚。

They have absolutely not a leg to stand on.

因此，伦德施泰特直到5月26日下午1点30分才再次下令释放装甲部队，而那时命令早已传开。

And consequently, von Rundstedt doesn't then release them again until 01:30PM on the afternoon of the twenty sixth of of May, by which time those orders have been fed.

当时已是晚上8点左右，实际上装甲部队直到5月27日才开始行动，但那时已经太晚了。

It's about 08:00 at night, so, and actually, the Panzers don't get moving until the May 27, by which time it's too late.

因此，英国人得以逃脱。

And so then the British are able to get away.

但在我们休息之前，多米尼克，格雷戈里·多尔关于敦刻尔克还有一个最后的问题。

But, Dominic, just before we go to the break, one last question from from Gregory Doll on dunk dunk on Dunkirk.

他问，如果只撤出十万人或更少，会发生什么？

He asked, what would have happened if they'd only got a 100,000 or fewer off Dunkirk?

所以，我想真正的问题是，英国军队从敦刻尔克撤离有多重要？

So I guess, really, the question is how important is it that the British Army gets away from Dunkirk?

我认为，5月27日星期一的事件——对我来说，这是英国最接近战败的时刻——如果英国远征军看起来即将被彻底歼灭，这些事件可能不会以同样的方式发展。

Well, I think the the the events of Monday, May 27, which for me is is the is the closest that Britain ever comes to losing the war, Those events might not have played out in the same way had the BEF looked like it was going to be completely destroyed.

我的意思是，这才是有趣的地方。

I mean, that's that's the interesting thing.

好的。

Okay.

我听到空袭警报了，所以我想我们该休息一下，等警报解除后再回来。

Well, I can hear the air raid sirens, so I think we should take a break while we wait for the all clear, and we'll be back after the break.

一会儿见。

See you in a minute.

欢迎回到《历史其余部分》，主持人汤姆·荷兰德、多米尼克·桑德布鲁克和我们的特邀嘉宾詹姆斯·荷兰德。

Welcome back to The Rest is History with Tom Holland, me, Dominic Sandbrook, and our special guest, James Holland.

下周我们将讨论十月，也会聊聊我们最喜爱的 Unix 系统。

Now next week, we'll be talking about October, and we'll also be talking about our very favorite Unix.

每个人都有自己喜欢的 Unix，对吧？

Everybody's got a favorite Unix, haven't they?

请在 Twitter 上提交你们的问题，我们会尽量回答尽可能多的问题。

So get your questions in on Twitter, and we'll try to go through as many of them as possible.

我们还将在下周三，4 月 21 日，进行一场网络直播节目，主题是暗杀事件。

And we are also going to do an episode live on the Internet next Wednesday, April 21, and the subject is assassinations.

我们会谈到亚伯拉罕·林肯、约翰·F·肯尼迪、尤利乌斯·凯撒，这些人都在其中。

So Abraham Lincoln, John f Kennedy, Julius Caesar, we've got them all.

还有希拉里那些失败的暗杀尝试。

Or Hillary Failed failed assassinations as well.

实际上是未遂的暗杀。

Failed assassinations, actually.

好吧，希拉里·曼特尔写过一个关于暗杀玛格丽特·撒切尔的短篇故事，不是吗？

Well, Hillary Mantel wrote to talk about the short story about the assassination of Margaret Thatcher, didn't she?

所以也许是那些根本没发生的暗杀。

So maybe assassinations that never happened at all.

无论如何，任何人都可以免费参与，我们下周会在推特上发送链接。

Anyway, it's free for anybody to join, and we'll send out a link on Twitter next week.

汤姆，现在你和你弟弟在这儿，我想你有一个来自罗尔夫·梅尔彻的问题要问他。

Tom, here we are with your brother, and you have a question for him from Rolf Merchant, I believe.

好吧，在广告之前，我们正说到英国人正在从敦刻尔克海滩撤离。

Well, so before the break, we had managed we were in the process of getting the British from the beaches of Dunkirk.

法国正处于被击败的过程中。

France is in the process of of being defeated.

情况看起来很糟糕。

It's looking bad.

白厅和威斯敏斯特到处都是各种政治伎俩。

All kinds of political shenanigans going on in in Whitehall and Westminster.

我认为现在正是提出罗尔夫·梅尔彻问题的好时机，他问：如果英国决定不继续抵抗，与德国达成的谈判协议会是什么样子？显然，这对英国人来说太过难以接受，因此从未成为现实选项。

And I think that this is the perfect time to ask Rolf Merchant's question, who says, what might a negotiated settlement with Germany have looked like had Britain decided against fighting on, presumably so unpalatable for the British that it was never a realistic option?

所以我想这里其实包含两个问题。

So I guess two questions there.

当时是否曾认真尝试过传递和平信号？如果这些和平信号再进一步，1940年5月英国可能达成的谈判协议会是什么样子？

Were there serious attempts to put out peace feelers, and had those peace feelers been, you know, gone a bit further, what might a negotiated settlement have looked like for Britain in in the May 1940?

我认为这会非常糟糕，我的意思是，我知道你做过一整集关于‘如果当时……’的节目，但我本人并不太喜欢这类假设。

Well, I do think it would I mean, I'm I'm not I know you've done a whole episode on what ifs, but I'm not a massive fan of what ifs at all.

但我认为可以相当肯定地说，那将是非常糟糕的消息。

But, I think you can say fairly safely that it would have been very, very bad news.

在我看来，关键的时间点是在1940年5月26日星期日到5月28日星期二之间，而核心时刻很可能就在5月27日星期一的下午。

I think it would have been so the the the the key moment, as far as I can make out, is between Sunday, 05/26/1940, and Tuesday, the twenty eighth, with the really crux of it probably being somewhere in the afternoon of the Monday, May 27.

因此，代号为‘发电机行动’的英军撤离行动，于那个星期日的下午约5:30启动，而那天国王已经宣布为全国祷告日。

So operation Dynamo, which is the operation to evacuate the BEF, is launched on the afternoon, about 05:30 in the afternoon on that Sunday, which the king has already called as a national day of prayer.

局势之糟糕，令英国统治阶级乃至广大公众对欧洲大陆发生的事情感到震惊和茫然。

So bad is the situation, so, shocked and stunned are the British ruling class, but also the the wider public as well by what has happened on the continent.

在那个周末，哈利法克斯勋爵——正如我们之前提到的，他曾是接替张伯伦的最可能人选，但最终拒绝了这一职位，因此由丘吉尔接任——与意大利大使朱塞佩·巴斯蒂亚尼讨论了试探和平可能性的问题。

And on the and over that weekend, Lord Halifax, who, as we were talking about, was the most likely candidate to replace Chamberlain before refusing to take on the job, and so it falls to Churchill instead, has been talking to, Giuseppe Bastianini, who is the Italian ambassador, about the possibility of opening peace feelers.

然而，战时内阁内部发生了争执。

Now as it happens, he gets there there is a spat within the war cabinet.

有一个规模更大的内阁，由大约三十名内阁大臣组成。

So there is a wider wider cabinet, which is about made of about 30 or or so people, cabinet ministers.

而战时内阁则规模小得多，只有五名成员。

And then there is then there is a war cabinet, which is members of which is just five strong.

其中包括首相丘吉尔、外交大臣哈利法克斯勋爵。

And there is Churchill, who's prime minister, Lord Hanifaqs, who's foreign secretary.

还有被罢免的前首相张伯伦，他在当时英国政坛上仍是一位重量级人物。

Then there is Neville Chamberlain, the, you know, the ousted prime minister, but but a a giant of the political stage in Britain at the time.

以及刚加入内阁的工党成员克莱门特·艾德礼和亚瑟·格林伍德，他们两人都是政坛新人。

And then there is Clement Attenley and Arthur Greenwood, who are two labor guys who have just come in and are very much the new boys.

所以，是的，他们的意见也算数，但远不如哈利法克斯和张伯伦，当然还有丘吉尔的意见重要。

So, yes, their views count, but they don't count half as much as Halifax and Chamberlain's in and and, of course, Churchill's.

在那个星期一，也就是27号，爆发了一场关于他们该做什么的争论，你知道的，是否应该撤出英国远征军。

And a dispute breaks out on that Monday, the twenty seventh, about what they should do, you know, should the the BEF not be evacuated.

当行动 Dynamo 在那个星期日晚上启动时，估计的数字是，如果我们运气好的话，能救出四万人。

And the estimates when when Operation Dynamo is launched on that Sunday evening, the estimates are 40,000 if we're lucky.

那么他们最终救出了多少人呢？

So what do they get out?

他们救出了多少人？

What do you they

三万八千人。

38,000.

他们救出了所有人。

They got out all

全部。

of them.

对。

Right.

所以，所有能登上船的士兵都成功撤离了。

So they got out every single man who was was able to get on board a ship was was aboard ship.

我的意思是，很多伤员都被留下了。

I mean, loads of wounded were left behind.

还有大约二十万士兵后来在更南边和诺曼底地区被陆续救出。

There was another whole kind of, you know, best part of 200,000 that were later picked up in in further south, and in in Normandy later on.

但就敦刻尔克而言，人数是33.8万。

But but but for Dunkirk, it's 338,000.

那么，如果他们失败了，接下来会怎样？

So if so if they failed, what then?

关键是，这个争论在星期一下午真正浮现出来，当时哈利法克斯说：听好了。

Well, the point is is it goes comes down to this argument on the afternoon of of which comes to rears its head really on the afternoon of Monday the twenty seventh when, Halifax is saying, look.

我这边已经有一些和谈的渠道在运作了。

I've just I've I've got these peace feeders going.

你知道，我和巴斯塔迪尼谈过这些事。

You know, I've got these had these talks with Bastardini.

他说他会出面调解，墨索里尼可以作为希特勒和我们之间达成和平协议的中间人。

Know, he's saying he will intervene, and, Mussolini can be the kind of go between between Hitler and us about a a a settled peace.

丘吉尔说：你根本不懂。

And Churchill says, you just do do not understand.

你不能这么做。

You you cannot do that.

首先，这违背了我们与法国的同盟条约。

First of all, that goes against our alliance treaty with with France.

你知道，你不能在没和盟友先达成一致的情况下，私下里跟别人开始谈判。

You know, you are not allowed to kind of you know, you you can't just sort of start negotiating behind someone's back with you when you haven't settled that with your your ally first.

所以，从一开始这就算是背信弃义的行为。

So so that's sort of perfidious to start off with.

然后你还会面临另一个问题：一旦门缝打开，就会彻底大开。

Then you've got the the other problem that once you once the door is ajar, it's slammed white o wide open.

已经没有回头路了。

There's there's no way back.

你在道德上已经破产了。

You you know, you're morally bankrupt.

你已经跨过了卢比孔河，再也无法回头了。

You've you've gone you've you've crossed a Rubicon of which there is can be no return.

哈利法克斯说：我就是不明白。

And Halifax says, well, I just don't get it.

我看不出为什么。

I don't see why.

我不明白，你知道，如果条件不好，我们自然就不会继续谈了。

I don't see why, you know, obviously, if the terms aren't good, then we won't pursue them.

但你知道，法官却说：不行。

But but, you know and judge is going, no.

一旦你开始谈条件，一切都结束了。

The the the moment you start talking terms, it's all over.

你得明白这一点。

You've you've got to understand this.

我完全正确，而哈利法克斯却非常生气，觉得他纯粹是固执又愚蠢。

I'm right on And and Halifax gets really cross and just thinks he's being bloody minded and silly.

这发生在他们知道敦刻尔克撤退成功之前。

And so this is before before they know this is before they know that Dunkirk evacuation has been a success.

是的。

Yes.

这正是最开始的时候。

This is this is right at the very beginning.

虽然行动是在26日星期日下午启动的，但第一批士兵直到那天才被撤离。

So although it is launched on the afternoon of the Sunday of the twenty sixth, the first troops are not picked off until that day.

在第一天，仅有7669名士兵从敦刻尔克海滩被救出，他们是最早被撤离的部队。

So as the very, very first troops, only 7,669 men are lifted off Dunkirk off the Dunkirk Beaches, on that first day.

你知道吗？

You know?

所以，德军正在逼近，他们预计撤退时间不会超过四十八小时。

So, and and the Germans are closing in, and they're expecting it not to be more than, you know, forty eight hours.

好的。

Okay.

但为了明确一下，丘吉尔的立场是，即使一个人都没能从海滩上救出，英国也必须继续战斗。

But just just to be clear, Churchill's position is that even if the hot they don't get anyone off the beaches, Britain should fight on.

绝对如此。

Absolutely.

于是当天下午，哈利法克斯发了脾气——这非常罕见，他威胁要辞职。

And so what happens is that afternoon, Halifax loses his temper, which is very rare, and threatens to resign.

随后内阁陷入沉默，丘吉尔把哈利法克斯带到唐宁街10号的花园里。

Then there's a pause in the cabinet, and and and Churchill takes Halifax out into the garden of Number 10.

没人知道他对他说了什么，但他把手亲切地搭在哈利法克斯的肩上。

No one knows what he's saying, what he says to him, but he puts a proverbial arm on his shoulder.

他们聊了一阵，等他回到会议室时，再没人提辞职的事了。

They have a chat, and and when he come back in, there's no more talk of resignation.

你知道，第一天并不特别顺利。

You know, that first day is not particularly auspicious.

我的意思是，7669人，你知道，当敦刻尔克可能在预计的48小时内全部沦陷时，

I mean, 7669 is, you know, when you're only gonna be you're probably the whole of Dunkirk is gonna fall in, you know, estimated forty eight hours.

你知道，如果运气好，大约有四万人，可能还更少。

You know, that is about 40,000 men if you're lucky, probably less.

你知道，四万人已经是预期的最高数字了。

You know, 40,000 was the kind of upper level of what was expected.

他们当天的撤离人数竟然超过了这个预期。

They were kind of trumping that on one day.

我的意思是，他们一天就撤出了六万五千人。

I mean, they got 65,000 off on one day.

所以，到了那一周的晚些时候。

So, later on in the week.

但丘吉尔明白，而哈利法克斯不明白，因为他没有丘吉尔那样深刻的地缘政治认知——实际上，英国的力量根本不在它的陆军上。

So but but but Churchill understands, and this is what what Halifax doesn't because he doesn't have the same quite the same geopolitical understanding that Churchill is that actually Britain's strength does not lie in its army at all.

军队传统上一直非常小，而且现在依然极其渺小。

The army has traditionally always been very, small and is very, very small.

你知道，他们在欧洲大陆只有10个师，而法国却有105个。

You know, it's 10 divisions on the continent, you know, compared to a 105 that the French have.

在二十世纪四十年代，师是衡量军队规模的基本单位，一个师大约有一万五千到一万六千人。

And the division is the kind of unit by which we judge the sizes of armies in the in the nineteen forties, about 16 fifteen, sixteen thousand men in a division.

他明白，最重要的军种是皇家海军，英国拥有世界上最大的海军，拥有全球最大的商船队，能掌控约85%的世界商船运力，拥有庞大的帝国，绝非孤军奋战，我们完全有能力坚持下去，而跨越海峡去征服一个岛国是极其困难的。

And he he understands that the the senior service is is the Royal Navy, that they have the world's largest navy, that Britain has the world's largest merchant fleet, that we have access to around 85% of the world's merchant shipping, that we have a vast empire, that we're absolutely not alone, that that we have you know, that we can absolutely hold on, and the the the the crossing the channel and defeating an island nation is incredibly difficult.

詹姆斯，我能插一句吗？

James, can I just jump in here?

不过，确实有一些历史学家认为，鉴于你刚才说的那些——英国拥有庞大的帝国、强大的舰队和各种资源——从长远来看，达成协议会不会更好呢？

There's a there are some historians, though, aren't there, who think that, you know, given all that you've said that Britain has this great empire, that it has the fleet, that it has all these resources, all the rest of it, Wouldn't it have been better in the long run to have done a deal?

不会。

No.

我不这么认为，但有些人就是这么想的。

I don't think this, but they think it.

与希特勒达成协议，或者根本不要参战，会是更好的选择。

It would have been better to do a deal with Hitler to or indeed not to have entered the war at all.

让希特勒和斯大林互相争斗、彼此消耗，这样世界，或者英国，在战争结束时会处于更有利的位置，如果当时接受了哈利法克斯的协议的话。

To let Hitler and Stalin fight each other and and knock each other out as it were, and that the world would be or that Britain would have been better placed at the end of the war if it had done Halifax's deal.

如果当时能更好地节约自己的力量。

If it had got if it had sort of husbanded its energies.

那么你大概认为……

Now you you presumably think that

但是多米尼克，我能再回到最开始的问题吗？那个协议到底会是什么样子？

is But Dominic, can I can I also just just to just get back to the question I was right at the beginning, which which is what would the deal have been?

因为这个协议是否在某种程度上可以接受，完全取决于它具体是什么内容。

Because the question of whether the deal would would have been, you know, in in any way kind of bearable surely is dependent on what that deal would have been.

是的。

Yeah.

好吧，让我说明一下，这两个问题是相互关联的。

Well, let me let me I mean, they're they're they're both connected.

我的意思是，这笔交易对英国来说会是一笔糟糕的交易。

I mean, the the deal would have been a bad one for Britain.

他们会失去一些领土，比如直布罗陀、马耳他，以及众多海外属地，还有苏伊士运河的通行权，这对印度来说将是灾难性的，而当时印度仍然是王冠上的明珠。

They would have lost a number of properties, Gibraltar, Malta, lots of overseas territories, access to the Suez Canal, which have been catastrophic for India, obviously, which still remains a jewel in the crown at that point.

当然，远东地区的通道，那时远东的崩溃尚未发生，而那里是巨大的资源来源。

Access to the Far East, of course, the collapse in the Far East hasn't happened at that point, and that is a massive source of of resources out there.

全球性的耻辱。

Global humiliation.

问题是，希特勒根本不可信。

And the problem is is that, you know, Hitler can't be trusted at all.

这一点已经得到证实，所以你无法确定。

That's been proved, so you don't know.

你可能在1940年6月达成了一项协议，但这项协议能否维持下去，可能性极低。

You might have a deal on in June 1940, but whether that stands is extreme, unlikely.

大规模裁军将是关键内容之一，这会使他们日后极易遭受入侵。

Large part of dis you know, massive disarmament would have been a key point, which had left them vulnerable to invasion later on.

你知道，这将会是灾难性的。

You know, I it would have it would have been catastrophic.

丘吉尔自己也说过，对吧？我们必须交出舰队，而且会让莫斯利掌权。

Churchill himself says, doesn't he, that that we would have had to hand over the fleet and we'd have Mosley put in charge.

是的。

Yeah.

我觉得没那么糟糕。

Think it would have been that bad.

他可能不需要交出舰队，但这也是有可能的。

I I I he he might not have had they might not have had to hand over the fleet, but but it's a possibility.

你知道，你不会拿这个去赌，对吧？

You know, you're not gonna bet on that, are you?

我的意思是，没错。

I mean Right.

关键是，一旦你开始谈判是否保留舰队，那就全完了。

You know, the point to the point is once you're once you're negotiating about whether you keep the fleet or not or not, it's all over.

你知道，你已经输得一塌糊涂了。

You know, you're you're you're you've just you've lost so terribly.

这关乎英国所代表的一切的削减。

It's about reduction of of of everything that Britain stands for.

好的。

Alright.

那我们回到会议上来吧。

Well, let's ask go back to the meetings.

所以在大众的想象中，丘吉尔战胜了保守派元老，比如哈利法克斯和张伯伦。

So in this sort of popular imagination, Churchill prevails against the sort of Tory old guard, so Halifax and Chamberlain.

但我的印象是，这完全错了，张伯伦才是关键人物，而张伯伦正如你所知，被大众历史严重污名化了，把他描绘成一个典型的投降派。

But my set my impression is that that's completely wrong, that Chamberlain's is the key voice, and that Chamberlain is as you know, Chamberlain's kind of been maligned by popular history, which paints him as the sort of archerpizza.

而在关键的会议上，不正是张伯伦吗？

Whereas in the crucial meeting, it's Chamberlain, isn't it?

他说了不。

Who says, no.

不。

No.

丘吉尔是对的。

Churchill is right.

我们必须支持丘吉尔。

We must back Churchill.

我们必须对抗希特勒。

We must fight on Hitler.

这不可信。

It can't be trusted.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，我们非常幸运，能够获得这些内阁会议中每一句话的逐字记录，它们绝对引人入胜。

I mean, we're very fortunate that we have verbatim accounts of every single word that's said in these cabinet meetings, and they're absolutely fascinating.

还有，你知道，约翰·卢卡奇的书，《五月的五天》或者叫《伦敦的五天》，不管它到底叫什么。

And, you know, John Lukacs' book, five days in May is is or five days in London, whatever it's called.

我的意思是，他在这件事上简直太出色了。

I mean, he's he's just completely brilliant on this.

这真的非常生动。

It it it's really vivid.

它极具吸引力。

It's incredibly compelling.

你会发现，丘吉尔开始为张伯伦辩护——等等，不对，是张伯伦开始为丘吉尔辩护，就在那个星期一。

And what you see is that Churchill does starts to kinda stick up for Churchill on, Chamberlain, rather, starts to stick up for Churchill on that Monday.

我认为，哈利法克斯没有辞职的主要原因之一，是我们在花园里发生的那场我们无从知晓的对话，但同样明显的是，张伯伦也在逐渐向丘吉尔靠拢。

And I think it's one of the one of the reason you know, I think the main reason why Halifax doesn't resign is because of the conversation that happens in the garden that we don't know about, but it's also because it's clear that Chamberlain is also starting to inch with towards towards Churchill on this one.

他在很大程度上保持了中立。

He kinda keeps out of it to a large extent.

这实际上是哈利法克斯和丘吉尔之间的激烈交锋。

It's it's really a back and forth between Halifax and Churchill.

但在第二天，也就是星期二，他确实完全站出来了。

But on the following day, Tuesday, he absolutely does.

他说，不行。

And he says, no.

不行。

No.

不行。

No.

不行。

No.

你知道，温斯顿，我这是在转述，但温斯顿真的很棒。

You you you know, Winston, I'm paraphrasing, but Winston's great.

你知道，你没法跟这些人打交道。

You know, you can't deal with these guys.

你知道，我在这件事上支持丘吉尔。

You know, I'm with Churchill on this.

由于艾德礼和格鲁默虽然有投票权，但实际上在这事上并没有实质性的投票权。

And since the since Attlee and Groomer don't really they do have a vote, but they don't effectively have a vote in this.

这是一场发生在哈利法克斯、张伯伦和丘吉尔之间的三方权力博弈。

It is a three way power tussle between between Halifax, Chamberlain, and and Churchill.

张伯伦和哈利法克斯关系非常非常紧密。

And Chamberlain and Halifax are really, really tight.

我的意思是，他们是非常非常好的朋友。

I mean, they're very, very good friends.

他们已经共事多年了。

They've been colleagues for many years.

他们在政治理念和各方面都出自同一种政治土壤。

They're absolutely cut from the same sort of political cloth in terms of their outlook and all the rest of it.

从性格角度来看，你可能会预期张伯伦站在哈利法克斯一边。

And you would, you know, just from personality point of view, you would expect probably Chamberlain to side with Halifax.

因为再次强调，他缺乏丘吉尔那种全球地缘政治的洞察力，但他确实没有。

Again, because he again, he doesn't have that kind of global geopolitical understanding that that that Churchill does, and yet he doesn't.

而那正是一个或许被夸大了的伟大时刻。

And, you know, that is that is a moment of of greatness that's perhaps is overstating it.

但你知道，张伯伦在1940年完全是个愣头青。

But, you know, Chamberlain is is a total lad in in 1940.

我的意思是，一旦他辞职，他就表现得非常出色。

I mean, you know, once he resigns, he's brilliant.

你可是第一个听到这个说法的人。

You heard it here first.

你觉得张伯伦这么做，是因为他亲身经历过希特勒从不守信吗？

Do you think that, that that Chamberlain does this be because he's had dealings of of how Hitler just doesn't keep his word?

我的意思是，他是在把自己的

I mean, he's he's kinda bringing his

个人经历

personal experience

带入进来。

here.

是的。

Yeah.

毫无疑问。

Unquestionably.

我的意思是，但总的来说，我认为张伯伦被严重误解了。

I mean, but but I do think, generally speaking, I think Chamberlain is much maligned.

我的意思是，如果不是张伯伦在1935年担任财政大臣时打下的基础，1940年英国就不会有那么多喷火式和飓风式战斗机来赢得不列颠之战。

I mean, you wouldn't have all those Spitfires and Hurricanes in 1940 to win the battle of Britain if it hadn't been for Chamberlain when he was chancellor's justice back in 1935.

正如丘吉尔所说，张伯伦不是在今年晚些时候去世了吗？

As Churchill says, when Chamberlain dies, isn't he, later in the year?

是的。

Yeah.

他为张伯伦发表了一段非常动人的悼词。

He he gives a very moving threnody on him.

好的。

Okay.

那么我们继续。

So so moving on.

那么，我们继续讨论每个人都在问的关键问题。

So So moving on to what really is the kind of the key question that everybody has asked in this.

我来引用一下一个名字非常有趣的人——IR Baboon——提出的问题。

So I'll just quote a question from splendidly named IR Baboon.

我们已经派出了军队，正在继续战斗，IR Baboon问：即使德国空军掌握了制空权，‘海狮计划’——纳粹入侵英国的计划——会成功吗？毕竟，皇家海军依然健在，尚未被击败。

We've got the army out, we're fighting on, and IR Baboon asks, would Operation Sea Lion, the Nazi plan for the invasion of Britain, have been successful even if the Luftwaffe had control over the skies because there's still the Royal Navy which still hasn't been beaten?

所以问题来了，我其实大概知道答案，但还是回答一下吧。

So the question is, and I kind of know what the answer to this, but I'm going to answer it anyway.

总的来说，不列颠战役有多关键？

Basically, how decisive is the Battle of Britain?

不列颠战役极其关键。

The Battle of Britain is incredibly decisive.

首先，回答这个问题：不行。

Well, first of all, to to first first answer to question question is, no.

他们根本不可能渡过英吉利海峡。

They couldn't have got across.

根本一点希望都没有。

I mean, not a hope in hell.

我的意思是，根本没希望。

I mean, just not a hope.

你想一想，1944年我们盟军登陆诺曼底时，情况有多危险。

You think think how much jeopardy there is in 1944 when we're going the allies are going across to Normandy.

你知道，情报必须绝对准确。

You know, the intelligence picture has to be absolutely spot on.

我们必须一直让他们猜到最后一刻。

Gotta We keep them guessing right up to the last minute.

你知道，我们必须在西北欧整个区域拥有压倒性的空中优势。

You know, the the we we have to have overwhelming air superiority over the entire swathe of Northwest Northwest Europe.

你知道，我们还需要压倒性的海上优势，以及火力和其他所有条件。

You know, we have to have overwhelming naval superiority as well as well as firepower and all the rest of it.

你知道，所有这些条件都必须满足，才有可能考虑实施跨海峡登陆作战。

You know, all those things have to be met before you can even consider attempting a cross channel invasion.

我的意思是，德国根本不具备其中任何一项条件

I mean, Germany doesn't have remotely any one of those those

那为什么不列颠战役是决定性的呢？

So why is the battle of Britain decisive then?

因为它把德国拖入了一场它根本承担不起的长期消耗战，并且确保了一件事：自从希特勒1933年上台那一刻起，就注定迟早要与苏联爆发一场天崩地裂的决战。

Because it it it consigns Germany to a long attritional war that it can't afford to fight, and it makes the one thing that is absolutely guaranteed the moment Hitler comes into power in 1933 that there is gonna be the god almighty ding dongs of ding dongs against the Soviet Union at some point.

至于这场大战何时发生、条件如何、最终谁胜谁负，在1933年时都还是未知数。

Now when this happens and what the conditions are and who actually wins is is is up for grabs in certainly in 1933.

但关键是，希特勒原本计划在大约1943年，甚至可能到1944年，才入侵苏联。

But the point is is that, you know, Hitler was originally planning for an invasion of Soviet Union in kind of sort of roughly 1943, possibly 1944.

他的想法并不是打一场全球性战争。

The idea is not to fight a global conflict.

而是打一系列小规模、短暂而迅猛的冲突，德国能够彻底赢得这些战争。

It's to fight a series of small conflicts, small short, sharp conflicts, which Germany has over can win comprehensively.

我的意思是，德国的整个战争方式就是彻底歼灭敌人。

I mean, you know, the whole German way of war is about annihilating your enemy completely.

他被迫在德国尚未准备就绪时就发动了对苏联的入侵。

And he's hustled into an invasion of The Soviet Union before Germany is ready.

我的意思是，1941年6月发动巴巴罗萨行动时，德国空军的实力比1940年5月10日还要弱。

I mean, the the the Luftwaffe is weaker in June in the June 1941, which is where operation Barbarossa is launched than it was on the 05/10/1940.

这其中很大一部分原因，是他们在不列颠战役中遭受了灾难性的损失。

And a large part of that is because of the catastrophic losses they suffer in the battle of Britain.

但更重要的是，他们根本没准备好应对如此大规模的战争，而他们不得不这么做，因为英国仍在参战，而美国正虎视眈眈，拥有庞大的人力和工业实力，诸如此类。

But but it's also, you know, they're they're just they're just not ready for a for a a conflict on that scale, And they have to do that because Britain is still in the war and hovering in the shadows is is United States with its huge manpower and industrialization, all the rest of it.

他知道，要想赢得战争，就必须先击败西方。

And and and he knows he has to beat the West to win the war.

他并不想在两条战线上作战，哪怕多拖一天都不愿意。

And he he doesn't wanna be fighting on two fronts for any longer than he has to.

但咱们还是回到不列颠战役吧，因为大多数人认为，这场战役的关键在于：如果英国输掉不列颠战役，就会遭到入侵。

But but but to stick to the battle of Britain because most people sense the battle of Britain is that this is the the key you know, if if if Britain loses the battle of Britain, then we get invaded.

你说即使我们输掉了不列颠战役，1940年德国也根本不可能成功入侵英国？

You're saying that even if the battle even if we lose the Battle of Britain, there's no prospect of a successful German invasion of Britain in 1940?

不。

No.

我的意思是，假设皇家空军真的被成功入侵了，那显然就是一场灾难。

The the the danger I mean, say the RAF is is say they do successfully they do successfully invade, then obviously that's that's catastrophe.

如果我们早在1940年5月27日或28日左右，也就是敦刻尔克失败时，就尝试寻求和平、释放和谈信号，他们根本没必要入侵英国。

Had we kinda sued for peace in on the '27 you know, started opening peace feelers on the twenty seventh of of May or May 28 or something, you know, when and Dunkirk's a failure, then they wouldn't have needed to invade Great Britain.

不。

No.

但我说的不列颠战役，是因为我们普遍认为，这场战役就是‘无数人给予极少数人如此多援助’的关键时刻。

But I'm saying with with the battle of Britain, because it's specifically we have this idea that the battle of Britain is where, you know, never so much aid by so many to so few.

所以你的意思是，它并没有像大多数人传统上认为的那样，是真正的转折点？

Is it this this isn't quite the pivot that that that most people traditionally think then is what you're saying.

从纸面上看，根本没有理由投降，而且我认为，即使皇家空军被击败，丘吉尔也绝不会允许这种情况发生。

Well, on paper, there is no there is no reason to throw in the towel, and and I don't think Churchill would have certainly let it let it happen even if the RAF had been defeated.

但我的观点是，皇家空军离被击败还差得很远。

But my point is is that the RAF is such a long way from being defeated.

好的。

That okay.

希特勒在1940年未能击败英国，这实际上是第二次世界大战中最关键的转折点，因为它确保了英国继续战斗，并将德国拖入一场长期的消耗战，而这场战争最终是德国无法赢得的。

Hitler's failure to defeat Britain in 1940 is the is the decisive the decisive battle as it turns out in the second world war above all because it ensures that Britain carries on fighting, and and it consigns Germany to a long attritional battle, which ultimately they can't win.

我的意思是，你想想，到了1941年6月，纳粹德国只有一个敌人——英国，尽管英国还加上了自治领和帝国。

I mean, you know, if you if you just just think about this, you know, if you if you think about the June 1941, Nazi Germany has one enemy, Great Britain, albeit Great Britain plus dominions and empire.

再快进六个月，到了1941年12月，它就有了三个敌人。

Fast forward to six months to, you know, December 1941, it's got three enemies.

它面对的是英国及其帝国和自治领。

It's got Great Britain plus empire and dominions.

它面对的是美利坚合众国和苏维埃社会主义共和国联盟。

It's got United States Of America and The Soviet Union.

我的意思是，它根本不可能赢。

I mean, it just it is simply not going to win.

第二次世界大战的战略性剧变有两方面。

The strategic earthquake of the second world war that that are twofold.

首先是日本在1941年12月及1942年初发动的袭击。

First is is, you know, the Japanese attacks in December and early part of of December nineteen forty one and 1942.

第二个就是这个。

The that's the second one.

第一个重大的战略转折是1940年5月至6月法国的沦陷。

The first major strategic earthquake is is the fall of France in in May June 1940.

其他所有事情，我认为基本上都是注定的。

Everything else, I think, is pretty much predetermined.

詹姆斯，让我带你回顾一下入侵行动。

James, let me take you back to the invasion.

所以，我和汤姆讨论过这些书，比如《纳粹英国》，假设‘海狮计划’真的实施了，还有罗伯特·哈里斯的作品。

So this I mean, Tom and I have talked about these books, you know, Nazi Britain, Operation Sea Lion happened, and Robert Harris.

记住这些。

Bear them.

所有这些类似的内容。

All these sort of stuff.

你现在真的在说，德国入侵根本没有现实的可能性吗？

Now are you genuinely saying there was no realistic prospects of a German invasion?

我的意思是，考虑到我们并不知道即使是一次小规模的德国登陆会对士气等造成什么影响，这个说法显得太过大胆了。

I mean, all that strikes me is that's a very big claim to make, given that we don't know the effect on morale and so on, of even a small German landing.

我们并不知道士气是否会崩溃。

You know, we don't know whether morale would have crumbled.

我们也不知道德军在陆地上能推进多远，诸如此类的事情。

We don't know what would have how far the Germans would have got in land and so on and so forth.

但你真的敢肯定，这根本不可能发生，完全不现实吗？

But are you really saying you're certain that this was just never gonna happen, never realistic?

另外还有一个相关的问题是，希特勒真的想这么做吗？

And and an additional sort of question, side question is, did Hitler even actually want to do it?

你认为他真的曾认真支持过‘海狮计划’吗？

Was he really ever signed up to operation sea lion, do think?

希特勒在战争期间做出了一些非常疯狂的决定，他的军事头脑并不算稳健。

Hit well, Hitler made some pretty crazy decisions in in the war, and, was not the soundest of, military minds.

不得不说。

It has to be said.

但即使他也很清楚，如果没有制空权，根本毫无机会。

But even he recognized that without, without control of the skies, there wasn't even a chance.

即使他们获得了制空权——坦白说，在不列颠战役中，138个机场里只有一个被摧毁超过48小时。

Even if they had got control of the skies and and let's face it, you have to accept that in the battle of Britain, out of a 138 airfields, only one was knocked out for more than forty eight hours.

所以无论从哪个角度看，这都是一次彻底的失败。

So it was just a completely you know, it's an abject failure every which way you look at it.

但更不用说，还有大约14个轰炸机司令部中队随时准备向任何入侵舰队投放化学武器。

But on top of that, there's something like 14 bomber command squadrons ready with chemical weapons to drop on any invasion fleet.

认为我们无法在入侵开始后24小时内得知其启动，这简直荒谬至极。

The idea that we wouldn't know that the invasion is launching, you know, within twenty four hours of it being started is, twenty four hours before it being started is just ridiculous.

而且他们根本没有登陆艇。

And that they don't have any landing craft.

他们只有几艘自己改装的渡轮，这些船简直糟糕透顶，完全不适合穿越英吉利海峡。

They've got a few of these sort of ferries that they've got they've developed, which are kind of pretty you know, they're absolutely woeful and completely not suitable for going across the channel at all.

其余的都是莱茵河上的驳船，而且大多数都配备了发动机。

The rest of them are Rhine River barges, and then most of them are motorized.

所以他们不得不让一艘机动驳船拖着两艘非机动驳船。

So what they're having to do is they're having one motorized one towing two unmotorized barges.

我的意思是，你能想象在1940年进行一次大规模登陆作战时，还有比这更烂的方案吗？

I mean, can you can you imagine anything more crap than that for a for a major invasion in 1940?

我的意思是，这根本行不通。

I mean, it's just it's simply not going to work.

而你面对的是世界上最大的海军，他们对此心知肚明。

And you've got the world's largest navy, and they completely understand that.

他们完全明白，从军事角度看，英国的实力远强于在欧洲大陆战败并从敦刻尔克撤退所暗示的那样。

They they completely get that that that militarily, they have Britain is far stronger than defeat on the continent and the evacuation of Dunkirk would would suggest.

等等，詹姆斯。

So hold on, James.

那这不就引出一个问题了吗？既然他知道德军根本不可能在海滩登陆，丘吉尔为什么还要说‘我们要在海滩上战斗，在登陆坡道上战斗’呢？

Doesn't that then raise the question, why does Churchill then do his, we will fight them on the beaches, we'll fight them on the landing ramps if he knows there's no realistic prospect that they're gonna be on the beaches?

因为这主要是因为，他知道这一点，但当成群的纳粹飞机飞过时，情况仍然显得非常吓人。

Because that's all about well, because because it it it doesn't he knows that, but it also doesn't seem quite you know, when you've got hordes of Nazi planes coming over, it still seems pretty intimidating.

而且他也明白，所有人都需要团结起来，真正意识到存在巨大威胁，认真对待，绝不能有丝毫懈怠，因为这确实是一个真实的威胁，所有人都必须齐心协力——而这正是实际发生的情况。

And he also understands that what everyone needs to do is come together, kind of realize that there is a big threat, take it really, really seriously, not be kind of lackadaisical about it in any way whatsoever, except there is a real threat and all pulled together, and and that's exactly what happens.

我知道有些愤世嫉俗的人会说，是啊，当时仍然有人被谋杀，有黑市商人，还有人在闪电战期间闯入民宅偷窃。

Now I know there are cynics out there who sort of go, yeah, well, there were people still being murdered, there was black marketeers and people breaking into houses in the Blitz and stealing stuff.

但整个国家确实团结起来了。

But but the the country did come together.

在那一刻，自由世界也团结在了一起。

The free world came together in that instance.

你知道，当时也有大量美国人前来支援。

You know, lots and lots of Americans coming over as well.

这是丘吉尔加强言辞的另一个重要原因，因为他非常清楚，罗斯福最害怕的就是英国被纳粹德国征服或控制。

That's the other big reasons why why Churchill was ramping up the rhetoric because, you know, he knew perfectly well that Roosevelt's worst nightmare was a Britain conquered or dominated by Nazi Germany.

你知道，突然之间，大西洋不再像以往那样，是他们这种孤岛式、非军事化世界观的天然屏障了。

You know, suddenly, the Atlantic is not the great barrier that it once was to their insular kind of non militaristic approach to to the world.

而这都是为了鼓励美国人加强战争生产，以及其他各方面的工作，站到我们这边来。

And, you know, that's all about encouraging the Americans to kind of beef up war manufacturing and all the rest of it and coming on their side.

你知道，所以我们需要那40艘驱逐舰和这一类的东西，因为哈里昂号——大部分最终在1944年被拖到海上当拆船用。

You know, that's why we need our 40 destroyers and all this kind of stuff because, you know, Harleon, which most of, which ended up as kind of, breakers offshore in 1944.

我的意思是，它们其实根本派不上什么用场，但重点不在这儿。

I mean, you know, so it's it's it's, you know, they they were never much use, but that's not the point.

我的意思是，有很多美国观察员正在过来。

I mean, you know, there are lots of American observers coming over.

所以他们想表达的是，这真的非常严重。

And so what they wanted to do is say, you know, this is really serious.

这就是我们面临的威胁，如果我们不赶紧行动，这就是我们将要面对的后果。

This is the threat that this is what we're looking at if if if we don't pull our finger out.

绝对不容许有任何自满情绪。

There's no room for complacency whatsoever.

然而，这些美国观察员还是会过来，比如图伊·斯波茨这样的人，后来成了高级空军指挥官。

And yet these American observers would come over, people like, Tuey Spotts stuff who ended up becoming a, you know, really senior, air commander later on.

过来的人报告了图希·斯波茨。

People who coming over report Toohey Spotts.

是的。

Yeah.

这是一个真正的美国名字。

And and Genuine American name.

图希是他的绰号。

Well, Toohey was his nickname.

他真名叫卡尔，但斯波茨是他的姓。

He was really called Carl, but Spotts was his was his surname.

但拼写是 S-P-A-A-T-Z。

But s p, a a, t zed.

他报告说，我看不出德国空军怎么可能赢。

And, you know, he was reporting back going, I can't see how the Luftwaffe could possibly win.

你知道，英国绝对没问题。

You know, this is Britain's Britain's absolutely fine.

这正是我们希望他说的话。

And that's exactly what we want him to say.

所以，我想我们把波斯的整个历史都讲了一遍，是的。

So we we we did, I think, the the entire history of Persia in Yeah.

四十分钟。

Forty minutes.

我们用比这更长的时间才讲了大约三周的内容。

We've taken longer than that to do about three weeks.

所以我们应该开始收尾，进入最后部分了。

So so we just we we should probably start closing moving to the end.

但我们已经讲了敦刻尔克。

But we've had Dunkirk.

我们已经讲了不列颠之战。

We've had the Battle of Britain.

当然，1940年英国历史上另一个著名事件是闪电战。

Of course, the other famous event in British history that happens in the in 1940 is the Blitz.

你认为政府和普通民众是否意识到，不列颠战役的胜利意味着大规模轰炸几乎是不可避免的？

Do you think that people in both government and the general population have an appreciation of the fact that victory in the Battle of Britain means that large scale bombing is kind of inevitable?

他们是期待这件事发生，还是对此感到意外？

Is it something that they're waiting to happen, or does it come as a surprise?

嗯，不是的。

Well, the no.

因为大规模轰炸实际上发生在不列颠战役中期。

Because the the the the large scale bombing happens in the in the middle of the Battle of Britain.

它始于1940年9月7日，星期六。

So that launched on Saturday, the seventh of, September 1940.

从战术上看，这完全没有任何道理。

And tactically, it makes absolutely no sense whatsoever.

如果他们的明确目标是摧毁皇家空军，那么他们本应更专注于攻击机场。

They're trying to if their stated aim is to try and destroy the, destroy the RAF, they're much better off targeting airfields.

问题是，他们根本没有足够的轰炸机来完成这项任务。

The problem is is they just don't have enough bombers to do the job.

我的意思是，不列颠战役仍在进行中。

I mean, so the battle of Britain is still going on.

我的意思是，我们距离不列颠战役日——1940年9月15日，也就是萨迪的生日，还差一周零一天。

I mean, you know, we're still a week and a day away from what becomes Battle of Britain Day, the September 15, which, of Sadie's birthday, bro, 1940.

我挚爱的妻子。

My beloved wife.

是的。

Yeah.

所以，事情刚开始发生，这是对柏林轰炸的报复。

So it's just it it's starting to happen, and that is in retaliation to the bombing of Berlin.

在德国空军故意轰炸伦敦之前，英国皇家空军已经四次轰炸过柏林。

So the the RAF bombs Berlin before four times before Luftwaffe deliberately bombs London.

人们总是说，这是有意为之。

And it's always said that that is a deliberate attempt.

这真的属实吗？

Is is that true?

这是不是一种故意的策略，想激怒德国人，让他们停止轰炸机场？

Is it that that this is a deliberate strategy to try and annoy the Germans into stopping bombing the airfields?

这是真的吗，还是不是？

Is is that true or not?

不是。

No.

这是为了展示他们有能力做到这一点，表明他们不是坐以待毙，而是在继续战斗，向德国人证明他们还没赢，英国轰炸机还会再来，这就是你们将要面对的。

It's to show it it's it's really to show that they can do it, and to show that they are, they're not just sitting back and taking it, that they're still in the game, that they're showing Germans that that that, you know, they haven't won, that British bombers are going to come over, and this is what you can expect.

我的意思是，你必须记住，尽管东区、南安普顿、利物浦，当然还有1940年11月的考文垂等地出现了可怕的景象。

I mean, you know, you have to also, one has to remember that despite despite the sort of terrible scenes in the in the East End, terrible scenes in Southampton, Liverpool, of course, Coventry in November 1940 and all the rest of it.

我的意思是，与战争后期德国人将要承受的相比，这些简直不值一提。

I mean, you know, it is it is it is very, very, very small beer indeed compared to what the Germans are gonna receive later on in the war.

我的意思是，1940年9月7日到1941年5月期间，伦敦在闪电战中总共遭受了18000吨炸弹的轰炸。

I mean, you know, the total tonnage of of bombs that are dropped on London in the Blitz between 09/07/1940 and the May 1941 is 18,000 tons.

我的意思是，盟军在诺曼底登陆前的九周内，仅在法国就投下了197000吨炸弹。

I mean, you know, that is I mean, the allies drop a 197,000 tons in nine weeks on France alone in the run up to d day.

所以，我们说的就是这种对比。

So, you know, that is the kind of comparison we're talking about.

但有趣的是，德国人在1940年根本缺乏足够的资源来实现他们击败英国的目标。

But the interesting thing is is, you know, the the Germans just don't have enough of anything to do what they're trying to do in the 1940 to defeat Britain.

听了你的话，我的结论是，德国早在那时就已经输了这场战争。

The conclusion that I would come to from listening to you is that basically Germany have lost the war even then.

换句话说，德国从战争一开始就已经输了。

That Germany have almost, in a sense, Germany have lost the war from the very beginning.

我的意思是，你描绘的图景中，英国的强大之处——它的补给网络、盟友、自治领等等——显得极其突出。

I mean, you're painting a picture in which it's actually very hard listening to what you say to Britain's great strengths, its supply network, its allies, you know, its dominions and so on.

德国的弱点。

Germany's weakness.

德国根本不够用来做这件事。

Germany, they don't have enough to do this.

他们连做那件事都不够。

They don't have enough do that.

某种程度上，他们不是已经输了吗？

In a way, haven't they lost already?

这不就是你会得出的结论吗？

Is that is that not the conclusion that you would come to?

如果这一点对你来说很明显，那为什么当时其他人没看出来呢？

Which in that case, if that's obvious to you, how come it's not obvious to everybody else at the time?

我的意思是，在某种程度上确实是这样。

Well, I mean, it is to a certain extent.

丘吉尔说过，希特勒知道他必须击败英国，否则就会输掉战争，而事实也正是如此。

I mean, Churchill says, you know, Hitler knows he must defeat Britain or lose the war, and, you know, that's exactly what happened.

我认为你可以有理有据地论证，到1941年11月，德国的败局就已经注定了。

I mean, I think you can say and argue and argue convincingly that it is definitely all over for Germany by November 1941.

当巴巴罗萨行动失败时，我认为已经没有任何回头路了。

When when when Barbara Rosser, the invasion of Soviet Union has failed, I I don't think there's any way back.

但我也不认为这件事成功的可能性有多大。

But I also don't think there was a huge amount of chance of that of that of that working either.

你知道，尽管德军在最初几周取得了压倒性的胜利，包围了大量苏军，但巴芭拉·罗斯勒成功的可能性依然微乎其微。

You know, the odds were stacked against Barbara Rosser being successful despite the kind of overwhelming victories in the initial weeks and the kind of sort of envelopments of vast Soviet armies and all the rest of it.

尽管对斯大林来说，形势看起来非常严峻，甚至有过一天的恐慌。

Although it looked very bleak if he was Stalin, you know, and there was a day of panic.

我认为那是1941年10月16日，当时他们都在逃离莫斯科，报纸也一片混乱，诸如此类。

I think it was the 10/16/1941 where, you know, they're all fleeing Moscow and Bernie papers and all the rest of it.

即便如此，这仍然是一个巨大的挑战，因为德军的后勤补给线已经被拉得过长，等等诸如此类的原因。

Even so, that was still a huge stretch because of the huge logistical chains that that were being put on the Germans and all the rest of it.

但更关键的是，之所以难以成功，是因为他们被逼入了这场战争。

But it was made more you know, the the the reason it's unlikely to succeed is because they've been hustled into it.

而他们之所以被逼在1941年6月发动进攻，是因为他们在不列颠战役中失败了。

And the reason they've been hustled into it and launching it in the June 1941 is because they've lost the battle of Britain.

关键在于，好吧，我们现在该怎么办？

And the whole point is, okay, well, what are we gonna do now?

英国仍然在战局之中。

Britain is still in the game.

美国在一旁静待，其强大的工业实力显然站在了英国和盟国一边。

America waiting in the wings of an all this industrial might clearly siding.

你知道，即使美国尚未正式参战，它在物质上也明确地支持英国和盟国。

You know, even if it's not actually in the war, it's certainly siding materialistically, with with with Britain and and the allies.

你知道吧？

You know?

所以我们必须击垮英国，但我们还没有足够的实力做到这一点。

So we need to knock Britain out, but we're not strong enough to do that.

因此，我们必须去夺取苏联的财富，然后才能回过头来对付英国。

So we're gonna have to go and get the wealth of the Soviet Union, and then we can turn back and face face Britain.

所以1940年实际上是转折的开始。

So 1940 is actually the beginning of the end.

是的。

Yeah.

我在思考。

I'm thinking.

是的。

Yeah.

我觉得你可以。

I think you I think you could.

是的。

Yeah.

嗯，我觉得我们已经击退了德军，汤姆。

Well, I think we've seen off the Germans, Tom.

我觉得我们做到了。

I think we have.

是的。

Yeah.

我想就这些了。

That's think that's all it.

今天《姐妹余音》就到这里了。

That's that's about it for today's The Rest of Sisters.

詹姆斯，非常感谢你。

James, thank you so much.

我等了很久，终于有人来给汤姆展示一下你是怎么做这个播客的。

I've been waiting ages for somebody to come on and show Tom precisely how you do this podcasting life.

我以为他们会它会

And I thought they would it would

我觉得如果这是来自他弟弟的话，效果会更强烈。

I thought it would bite all the more if it came from his younger brother.

所以你来参加节目，让他认清自己的位置，真是太好了。

So it's great that you've come on and and put him in his put him in his place.

嗯，我们可以来

Well, we could do

一期关于兄弟排行的节目。

an episode on Elder and younger brothers.

汤姆，你知道我刚才在想什么吗？

Do know what was actually thinking, Tom?

那会是个很棒的

That would be a great

绝佳主题。

a great subject.

哈里和威廉。

Harry and Wills.

有太多可以挖掘的了。

So much to play with.

有太多太多可以

So much to to

探讨的了。

talk about.

我真的很高兴能来参加，这非常有趣，我从来不需要别人邀请第二次就谈论1940年。

Well, I'm actually thrilled to be on, and it's been great fun, and I never need any second invitation to talk about 1940.

必须得说一句。

It has to be said.

非常好。

Totally good.

而且，如果大家还没听够你的话，还有300期《我们有办法让你说话》。

Well, and also, if if people haven't had enough of you, there are also 300 episodes of We Have Ways of Making You Talk

也包括在内。

as well.

那可是

That's a hell

一大堆

of a

谢谢您，汤姆。

lot of thanks, Tom.

因为你在回顾第二次世界大战。

So because you're playing catch of Second World War.

很多第二次世界大战的内容。

Lot of Second World War.

非常感谢，兄弟。

Thanks so much, bro.

这真是太精彩了。

It's been it's been sensational.

非常有趣。

It's been great fun.

谢谢。

Thank you.

我们下周三会带来一场额外的现场直播节目。

And we will be back next week with a bonus live episode on Wednesday.

请务必记在日历上，我们那时再见。

So do please put that in your diaries, and we will see you then.

暂时再见。

Goodbye for now.

再见啦。

Pip pip.

感谢收听《Rest is History》。

Thanks for listening to the Rest is History'.

如需获取附加剧集、提前收听、无广告播放以及加入我们的聊天社区，请前往 restishistorypod.com 注册。

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网址是 restishistorypod.com。

That's restishistorypod.com.