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仅展示文本字幕,不包含中文音频;想边听边看,请使用 Bayt 播客 App。
如果你想从节目中获得更多内容,就加入‘历史余韵’俱乐部吧。
If you want more from the show, join the rest is history club.
随着圣诞节的临近,你还可以为你生活中的历史爱好者赠送一整年的会员资格。
And with Christmas coming, you can also gift a whole year of access to the history lover in your life.
只需访问‘历史余韵’官网并点击礼品选项。
Just head to the rest is history.com and click gifts.
本节目由Hive赞助播出。
This episode is sponsored by Hive.
历史始终是一个关于权力的故事。
History has always been a story of power.
谁在追逐权力,谁在夺取权力,以及权力如何轻易消逝。
Who seeks it, who seizes it, and how easily it can all slip away.
凯撒们、哈里发们、沙皇们,他们征服了广袤的世界疆域。
The Caesars, the Caliphs, the Tsars, they conquered vast swathes of the world.
他们自诩为神明的宠儿,然而他们的帝国终究土崩瓦解。
They proclaimed themselves the favorites of the gods, and yet their empires crumbled away.
征服易,掌控难。
It is easier to conquer than it is to control.
Hive采取了不同的策略。
Hive takes a different approach.
它将权力交到真正的主人——你的手中。
It puts power where it belongs, in your hands.
他们从智能恒温器起步,如今已走得更远。
They started with smart thermostats, and they've now gone much further.
太阳能板、热泵、电动车充电桩协同工作,使得
Solar panels, heat pumps, EV chargers, working together so that
你可以按自己的方式为家庭供电。
you can power your home in your own way.
这才是真正的赋能力量。
That's genuine empowerment.
查看手机时,看到暖气运行着,汽车充着电,而阳光正静静地在屋顶创造价值。
Checking your phone, seeing the heating's on, the car's charging, and the sun is quietly earning its keep on the roof.
凯撒从不需要给他的战车充电,但我确信他会赞赏这种高效。
Cesar never had to charge his chariots, but I'm sure he would have admired the efficiency.
访问hivehome.com了解更多信息。
Visit hivehome.com to find out more.
需经调查确认适用性,Hive与特定技术兼容。
Subject to survey and suitability, Hive compatible with selected technology.
大家好。
Hi, everybody.
欢迎来到《余下皆为历史》。
Welcome to the rest is history.
对于新听众,简单介绍一下我们节目的背景。
For those of you who are new to the show, a little explainer about where we are.
接下来两周,我们将探讨现代史上最激动人心且戏剧性的时刻——1939至1940年间纳粹的故事。
For the next two weeks, we'll be looking at one of the most exciting and dramatic moments in modern history, the story of the Nazis in 1939 and 1940.
针对新听众,简要说明我们目前所处的历史节点及其来龙去脉。
But for those of you who are new to the show, just a little explainer about where we are and how we've got here.
在我们之前关于纳粹的剧集中,我们描述了在第一次世界大战的屈辱和魏玛共和国崩溃的背景下,这个由阿道夫·希特勒领导的极右翼组织如何在1933年夺取了德国政权。
So in our previous episodes about the Nazis, we described how this radical right wing organization spearheaded by Adolf Hitler took power in Germany in 1933 against the background of the humiliation of the First World War and the collapse of the Weimar Republic.
随后希特勒将一切事务都服从于他让德国再次伟大、扩张德国疆域、洗刷《凡尔赛条约》耻辱等愿景。
And then Hitler subordinated everything to his vision of making Germany great again and expanding Germany's borders, wiping away the stain of the Treaty of Versailles, and so on.
此前我们讲述了他如何与斯大林达成协议,两人如何瓜分波兰。
So previously, we described how he did a deal with Stalin, how he and Stalin dismembered Poland between them.
但这当然使希特勒与英法两大西方强国产生了冲突。
But that, of course, brought Hitler into conflict with the two great Western powers of Britain and France.
在这些剧集中,我们将见证现代历史上一些最激动人心和戏剧性的时刻。
So in these episodes, we'll be looking at some of the most exciting and dramatic moments in modern history.
希特勒躲过了陆军将领的未遂政变和一次仅差数分钟就能炸死他的暗杀阴谋。
Hitler survives an attempted coup by his army generals and a bomb plot against him that misses him by minutes.
法国的沦陷,这是现代欧洲历史上最震撼也最悲惨的故事之一。
The fall of France, one of the most awe inspiring and tragic stories in modern European history.
温斯顿·丘吉尔的登场,希特勒与丘吉尔的对决,不列颠之战与伦敦大轰炸,以及最终希特勒决定调转枪口进攻斯大林,在东方战线发动'巴巴罗萨行动',将地狱般的战火引向东线。
The advent of Winston Churchill, the duel between Hitler and Churchill, the battle of Britain and the blitz, and finally, Hitler's decision to turn on Stalin and unleash hell on the Eastern Front, operation Barbarossa.
这一切即将展开。
All of this is coming up.
但我们将以一个真正难忘的时刻开启本系列,你将听到史上最震撼人心的演讲之一。
But we start the series with a truly unforgettable moment, one of the most remarkable impressions that you will ever hear.
西方目前的局势持续下去是不可想象的。
The continuation of the present state of affairs in the West is unthinkable.
每一天都将很快要求更大的牺牲。
Each day will soon demand greater sacrifices.
欧洲的国民财富将如炮弹般灰飞烟灭。
The national wealth of Europe will be scattered as shell fire.
繁荣的城镇将不复存在,唯有无尽的废墟与坟茔。
And instead of flourishing towns, there will stand only ruins and graves without end.
丘吉尔先生及其追随者或许会将这些声明解读为懦弱或胆怯,但我无需在意他们的想法。
Mister Churchill and his clonies may interpret these statements as weakness or cowardice, but I need not occupy myself with what they think.
我之所以这样说,只因不言而喻——我希望能让我的人民免遭此难。
I make them simply because it goes without saying that I wish to spare my people this suffering.
然而,如果丘吉尔先生及其追随者的意见占了上风,那么我们将战斗到底。
If, however, the opinions of mister Churchill and his followers should prevail, Then we shall fight.
无论是武力还是时间的流逝都无法征服德国。
Neither force of arms nor the lapse of time will conquer Germany.
德国历史上绝不会再出现1918年11月那样的屈辱。
Thou will never be another November 1918 in German history.
丘吉尔先生或许坚信大不列颠会取得胜利。
Mister Churchill may be convinced that Great Britain will win.
我毫不怀疑德国必将胜利。
I do not doubt for a single moment that Germany will be victorious.
命运将裁决谁是正确的。
Destiny will decide who is right.
多明尼克,这是阿道夫·希特勒在1939年10月6日对国会发表演讲时那标志性的语调。
So the unmistakable tones there, Dominic, of Adolf Hitler, and he was addressing the Reichstag on the 10/06/1939.
和希特勒所有演讲一样,这次也有点夸张过头了,对吧?
And as ever with Hitler's speeches, it's a little bit over the top, isn't it?
只是有点。
Just a little.
是啊。
Yeah.
所以此时第二次世界大战已经爆发一个月了。
So the Second World War is a month old at this point.
我得喘口气。
I'm having to catch my breath.
被那搞得相当疲惫。
Been quite exhausted by that.
嗯。
Yeah.
你显然没有他那样的耐力。
You don't have his stamina, clearly.
确实没有。
No.
我没有。
I don't.
我不习惯发表激昂演说,号召人们加强战争力量。
I'm not given to rants summoning people to strengthen the sinews of war.
完全不是我的风格。
Not my vibe at all.
所以波兰被征服了。
So Poland is conquered.
希特勒刚刚访问过满目疮痍、硝烟未散的华沙废墟,现在他从这个遭受蹂躏、被征服占领的波兰回到了柏林。
Hitler's been on a visit to the shattered, smoldering rubble of Warsaw, and he's now come back to Berlin from a Poland that has been brutalized, conquered, and occupied.
纳粹在东线波兰的战役以闪电般的速度和惊人的凶残展开,希特勒如今已为德国人民在东方开拓出了生存空间。
And the Nazi campaign in the East in Poland was one of lightning speed, incredible ferocity, and Hitler has now carved out Lebensraum living room for the German people in the East.
现在他必须决定如何应对波兰在西方的盟友——英国和法国,这两个国家曾为保卫波兰对德宣战,但这个目标如今显然已和华沙一样化为废墟。
And now he has to decide what to do about Poland's allies in the West, Britain and France, who had declared war on Germany with the aim of defending Poland, But that aim obviously now lies smoldering a rubble like Warsaw.
是啊。
Yeah.
没错。
That's right.
所以他在那次演讲中。
So he is in that speech.
尽管他的语气充满战争意味,但实际上他是在提出和平——或者说假装提出和平。
He's actually despite his warlike tone, he's actually offering peace or pretending to offer peace.
我们稍后会回到这个提议。
And we'll come back to that offer in a few moments.
不过,汤姆,在你喘口气的同时,让我们为可能对这段历史不熟悉的听众们铺垫一下背景。
But, Tom, while you catch your breath, let's just set the scene set the scene for listeners who may be new to the rest of history.
没有追过我们之前的系列。
Haven't caught up with previous series.
这实际上是我们关于纳粹的第四个系列。
So this is actually our fourth series on the Nazis.
我们一直在追溯第三帝国的兴衰。
We've been tracing the rise and fall of the Third Reich.
在第一季中(回溯到2022年),我们探讨了纳粹如何在一战后的混乱中崛起。
In the first series, which is back in 2022, we looked at how the Nazis emerged in the chaos after the First World War.
他们汲取了维多利亚晚期种族主义民族主义的思想养分。
They drew on kind of late Victorian racist nationalist ideas.
魏玛共和国崩溃了,民主实验失败了,而希特勒被保守势力推上权力巅峰——这些人完全低估了他的极端主义与冷酷无情。
The Weimar Republic broke down, democratic experiment broke down, and Hitler was levered into power by conservatives who completely underestimated his radicalism and his ruthlessness.
随后我们在2023年制作了第二季,讲述他如何巩固对德国的控制,开始迫害犹太人,并为战争做准备。
Then we did a second series in 2023 about how he cemented his control over Germany, how he began to move against the Jews, and how he prepared Germany for war.
接着是去年的第三季(2024年),呈现他在慕尼黑绥靖政策后吞并捷克斯洛伐克的过程。
And then our third series, which was last year in 2024, how he swallows Czechoslovakia after appeasement at Munich.
他与斯大林签订条约(本季会重点讨论),随后发动了对波兰的入侵。
He signs his pact with Stalin, which we'll be talking about a fair bit in this series, and then he launches the invasion of Poland.
令希特勒震惊的是(他确实感到措手不及),英法两国随即为波兰参战,欧洲在二十五年内再度陷入大规模大陆战争。
And to Hitler's surprise, and he genuinely is shocked and surprised, Britain and France then pile in on behalf of Poland, and so Europe is facing a second major continental war in twenty five years.
多米尼克,希特勒入侵波兰实属一场豪赌——
And, Dominic, by invading Poland, Hitler had gambled,
他不是赌英国和法国不会参战吗?可他们确实参战了。
hadn't he, that Britain and France wouldn't enter the war, and they do.
是啊。
Yeah.
而希特勒骨子里就是个赌徒。
And Hitler, by instinct, is a gambler.
他总是倾向于掷骰子看结果,这对我们讨论第四季内容将至关重要。
He is always likely to to roll the dice and see what happens, and this is going to be incredibly important for our discussions of what's gonna happen in this, our fourth series.
没错。
Exactly.
因为在本季中,当我们审视1939至1940年时,希特勒实际上会发起两次豪赌。
Because in this series, when we look at 1939 and 1940, Hitler will launch effectively two gambles.
其一是他对西方的进攻,其二则是他开始迈向最大的赌注——入侵苏联。
One of them is his attack on the West, and the second is he begins to move towards the greatest bet of all, which is his invasion of the Soviet Union.
在展开叙述前我想说一点,有趣的是,在我们制作纳粹系列节目的这段时间里,关于纳粹的某些讨论实际上已悄然发生了变化。
And one thing I will just say before we kick off the narrative, it's interesting that in all the time that we've been recording these series on the Nazis online, some of the conversation about the Nazis has actually changed a little bit.
所以你现在会看到,在英美这类推特圈子里,有人公开说纳粹也许没那么坏。
So you see now in this sort of Anglo American sort of Twittersphere or whatever, people openly saying, well, the Nazis maybe weren't all that bad.
他们是被战争压力逼得采取极端措施的。
They were pushed into radical measures by their pressures of war.
实际上,丘吉尔和希特勒一样都是恶棍。
And actually, Churchill was just as bad a villain as Hitler.
因此在本系列中强调这点非常重要,尽管主要内容会涉及军事、外交政策等方面。
So it's actually really important to stress that during this series, a lot of which will be about kind of military stuff and foreign policy and things.
希特勒的激进灭绝政策一直在持续推进,特别是两件事。
Hitler's radical exterminatory policies are gathering momentum all the time, specifically two things.
其一是对犹太人的迫害,自20世纪30年代中期以来不断加剧。
One of them is the persecution of the Jews, which has been getting worse since the mid 1930s.
另一个将成为未来系列专题的(我知道你写过相关文章),是他针对残疾人和精神病患者的强制安乐死计划。
And the other, which will be an episode in itself in the future series, because I know it's something you've written about, is his forced euthanasia programme where he targets the disabled and the mentally ill.
这个计划最终将夺走约25万人的生命。
And that will end up claiming about a quarter of a million lives, I think.
这些背景因素始终存在。
So these are in the background the whole time.
要知道,希特勒并非像其他保守专制者那样的保守独裁者。
You know, Hitler is not a conservative autocrat like other conservative autocrats.
在整个故事中,他始终带有一种灭绝性的倾向。
There is a kind of exterminatory edge to him all through this story.
这是他对待战争态度的重要方面,不是吗?
And that is an important aspect of his attitude to war, isn't it?
战争是一种自然状态,因为它能让强者凌驾于弱者之上。
That war is a natural condition because it enables the strong to prevail over the weak.
是的。
Yeah.
完全正确。
Completely.
完全正确。
Completely.
事实上,这正是他对此如此自在的原因。
And actually, that that's why he's so comfortable in this.
要知道,与我们将要谈到的内维尔·张伯伦不同,希特勒热爱这一切。
You know, he unlike, let's say, Neville Chamberlain, who we'll be talking about, Hitler loves all this.
他认为这是人类的一种自然状态。
He he regards this as a natural condition of humanity.
那么让我们进入正题。
So let's get into the story.
希特勒于1939年9月1日进攻波兰。
Hitler attacked Poland on the 09/01/1939.
波兰人英勇奋战,却几乎得不到他们所谓盟友的援助。
The Poles fought heroically with very little help from their so called allies.
但仅仅十六天后,苏联根据与希特勒的秘密协议,也从东部入侵。
But just sixteen days later, the Soviet Union, as per their secret pact with Hitler, invaded from the East as well.
于是波兰最终被两国瓜分。
So Poland ended up being divided between the two.
那真是背后
That really is a stab in
捅刀。
the back.
我是说,这完全就是。
I mean, it completely it is.
所以现在的问题是希特勒如何看待这场战争?
So the question now is how does Hitler see the war?
正如你所说,汤姆,我认为你完全正确。
And as you said, Tom, I mean, think you're absolutely right.
希特勒将人类处境视为一场战斗。
Hitler sees the human condition as one of fighting.
在1925年的《我的奋斗》中,他曾说过人类的生命本质上是一场可怕的生存斗争。
In Mein Kampf in 1925, he had said that basically the the the life of man is a dreadful struggle for existence.
而且他已向最高统帅部明确表达了自己的战争野心。
And he had made his warlike ambitions very clear to his high command.
所以在1939年1月,战争尚未爆发时,他就告诉将领们,历史上的德国英雄们都崇尚残暴,也就是剑的力量。
So in January 1939, before the war even started, he told his generals that the German heroes of history had embraced brutality, meaning the sword.
他说现在是德国争取欧洲霸主地位的时候了。
He said it's time for Germany to stake its claim to the domination of Europe.
随后在1939年5月,他明确命令他们准备与西方开战。
And then in May 1939, he'd explicitly told them to prepare for war with the West.
这始终是他长远计划的一部分。
This is always part of his long term plan.
英国是我们的敌人,与英国的对决事关生死存亡。
England is our enemy, and the showdown with England is a matter of life and death.
我们将看到,希特勒对他所称的'英国'抱有非常矛盾的态度。
And as we'll see, Hitler has a very conflicted attitude to what he calls England.
一方面他钦佩英国,因为作为一个帝国,作为盎格鲁-撒克逊表亲。
On the one hand, he admires it because as a as an empire, as Anglo Saxon cousins.
但另一方面,他确实认为最终,英国或者说美国将成为——如果用电子游戏来比喻——德国必须击败的终极BOSS,才能掌握世界霸权。
But on the other, he does think that at the end of the day, you know, England is kind of going to be or England or The United States will be the kind of final boss, as it were, if it's a video game that Germany will have to overcome for mastery of the world.
要是他娶了尤妮蒂·米特福德就好了。
If only he'd married Unity Mitford.
要是那样就好了。
If only.
是啊。
Yeah.
这么快就在节目里谈到她真让人沮丧,你知道,她不是我喜欢的人。
Depressing to get her on the show so soon because, you know, she's not my favorite person.
总之,关键在于希特勒并不认为与英格兰的这场对决会很快发生。
Anyway, the thing is Hitler doesn't think this showdown with England is going to happen anytime soon.
他的将军们告诉他,德国空军要到1942年才能准备就绪,舰队则要等到1943年。
His generals have told him that the Luftwaffe will not be ready till 1942 and the fleet until 1943.
而国防军,他的陆军,根本没有针对西方的作战计划。
And the Wehrmacht, his army, don't have a plan for a war in the West.
所以实际上,当他进攻波兰直到最后一刻时,他还在试图与英国人达成协议让他们置身事外。
So actually, when he attacks Poland right up to the last minute, he's trying to make a deal with the British to keep them out of it.
他实际上给张伯伦,内维尔·张伯伦,发了一条信息,说:如果你给我自由行动权并让我得到波兰的一小部分,我将保证大英帝国的边界安全。
And he says, effectively sends a message to Chamberlain, Neville Chamberlain, to say, I will guarantee the borders of the British Empire if you give me a free hand and give me a little bit of Poland.
当张伯伦拒绝时,他感到非常非常惊讶,因为他曾形容张伯伦是个小蠕虫,以为他永远不会反抗,这让他措手不及。
And he's really, really astonished when Chamberlain says no because he had described Chamberlain as a little worm and thought that he would never fight and is really taken aback.
低估了英国的勇气。
Underestimated British pluck.
他低估了英国的勇气。
He had underestimated British pluck.
还是说他没有?
Or had he?
因为战争已经持续了一个月,而盟军确实什么都没做。
Because the war has now been going on for a month and the allies really have done nothing.
一个明显的原因是,他们被第一次世界大战的经历和大规模伤亡深深创伤。
And one obvious reason for this is that they are so traumatized by the experience of the Great War, by the massive casualties.
例如,法国在第一次世界大战中损失了超过一百万人,以至于他们在1939年时已不再有那种好战精神来推动事态发展。
The French, for example, had lost more than a million men in the First World War, that they don't really have the sort of warlike spirit to force the issue now in 1939.
正如我们在上一系列中所述,法国军队集结在他们的边境上。
So as we described in the last series, the French troops massed on their borders.
他们实际上进入了德国最西部的萨尔地区几天。
They actually went into the Czarland in the far West of Germany for a few days.
他们在人数上以五比一超过德军。
They outnumbered the Germans five to one.
然后他们有点像是说,嗯,你知道,我们已经稍微查看了一下,现在我们要回去了。
And then they sort of said, well, you know, we've had a little look around, and we'll go back now.
所以德国人有这种防御工事线,对吧?
So the Germans have this kind of fortified line, don't they?
齐格菲防线。
The Siegfried Line.
但那里——我是说,那里根本没有重兵把守,法国人就这么靠近了它。
But there are it's I mean, it's really not heavily occupied at all, and the French kind of go up to it.
詹姆斯·霍兰德(我兄弟)的《西方战争:德国崛起1939-1941》一书中有一段精彩的描述。
And an excellent description in a book by James Holland, my brother, The War in the West, Germany Ascended 1939 to 1941.
他引用了一名法国士兵接近齐格菲防线时,遭到一挺自动武器的射击。
And he quotes a French soldier going up to the Siegfried Line, and they're fired at by a single automatic weapon.
面对这挺自动武器,法国人随即撤退了。
And faced by this single automatic weapon, the French then retreat.
我兄弟写道,早一代的法国步兵曾顶着炮火前进,穿越机枪和步枪交织的火网。
And my brother writes, a generation earlier, French Poileu had advanced over Grande torn up by shellfire into withering storms of machine gun and rifle fire.
如今整个攻势竟被一挺武器所阻滞。
Now entire advances were being held up by a single weapon.
我觉得这非常引人深思,因为他说得没错。
And I found it really striking because he's right.
我们之前在关于一战最初几个月的系列节目中也讨论过这点。
I mean, we were talking about this in the series that we did on on the early months of the First World War.
当时成千上万的法国士兵倒在德军火力之下。
I mean, thousands upon thousands of French soldiers being mown down by German fire.
现在他们似乎失去了斗志,可以这么说。
And now it's it's like they've lost their cojones, I guess.
嗯,我认为恰恰是因为发生过那样的事。
Well, I think it's precisely because that happened.
他们不想让历史重演。
They don't want that to happen again.
他们深知代价,对吧?
They know the cost, right?
而且他们明白那是个可怕的错误。
And they know that was a terrible mistake.
比如1914年的边境战役,当时穿着近乎十九世纪军装的法国士兵向机枪阵地推进,结果被成片扫倒。
The battle of the frontiers in 1914 or whatever, when Frenchmen in kind of nineteenth century uniforms advanced towards the machine guns and were mowed down.
他们不愿再看到那种情景发生。
They don't want that to happen again.
实际上,我认为盟军领导人张伯伦和法国总理达拉第,他们最终希望德国人能醒悟过来推翻希特勒,经济压力会起作用,然后会陷入长期对峙。
And actually, I think that the allied leaders, Chamberlain and Deladier, who is the French prime minister, they are ultimately hoping that the Germans will come to their senses and get rid of Hitler, that economic pressure will do the job and that there'll be a long standoff.
最终德国人要么会厌倦,要么会意识到希特勒是个恶棍,然后除掉他。
And eventually, the Germans will get bored or they'll realize that Hitler is a bad, you know, a baddan, and they'll get rid of him.
但你认为这是否也归因于纳粹宣传的强大影响力?
But do you think it's also because of the the the kind of the potency of Nazi propaganda?
因为实际上,这对法国人来说是个绝佳的入侵时机,因为所有德军都在波兰作战。
Because actually, this was the perfect opportunity for the French to invade because all the German forces are away in Poland.
所以他们本可以一举攻破齐格菲防线。
So they absolutely could have stormed the Siegfried Line.
但德国人非常巧妙地暗示纳粹军队是不可战胜的。
But the Germans have been brilliant at suggesting that the Nazi forces are invincible.
有个故事说一位法国空军首长受邀参观德国空军总部和各类机场。
There's some story of a French air chief being invited to inspect the headquarters of the Luftwaffe and the kind of various aerodromes.
他们从一个机场转到另一个机场。
And they go from aerodrome to aerodrome.
在法国首长被运送期间,德国人忙着把飞机从一个机场调到另一个机场,好让空军看起来比实际规模大得多。
And while the French chief is being transported, the Germans are busy moving the planes to from one aerodrome to another so that it looks as though the Luftwaffe is actually much larger than it is.
但我认为这肯定是其中一部分原因,他们这种吞下了戈培尔宣传的感觉,认为纳粹就像钢铁般坚不可摧。
But I think that must be part of it, this sense that they've swallowed Goebbels propaganda, that the Nazis are kind of steel tipped, invincible.
要知道,根本没有战胜他们的可能。 ●●●
You know, there's no prospect of defeating them.
而事实上,真相恰恰相反。●●●
Whereas in fact, the opposite is the truth.
这正是法国人一举突破德国西部防线的绝佳时机。
This was the chance for the French to kind of overwhelm the German defenses in the West.
但他们完全错过了这个机会。
But it's a chance they completely miss.
正因如此,这种惰性使人们称之为布尔战争,或者更广为人知的'假战争'。
And that's why, you know, the sense of inertia is why people call it the Boer War or they call it most famously the phony war.
你知道,这是一场我们基本上无所作为的战争。
You know, it's a war in which we're basically doing nothing.
我认为可以明显感觉到,随着1939年进入3940年,西方国家的士气正在逐渐低落。
And there's a definite sense, I think, that as the 1939 becomes the 3940, morale in the West is sort of sagging.
当时英国在三十年代末进行的名为'大众观察'的大型原型焦点小组调查报告中指出,我引用原话:'国内普遍强烈感觉这场该死的战争没有取得进展'。
So Mass Observation, which was like this sort of giant proto focus group conducted in the late nineteen thirties in Britain, reports, and I quote, a strong feeling in the country that this wretched war is not going on with.
我们可以推测希特勒在这场战争的第一回合中已取得舆论胜利。
We can suspect that Hitler has won news round one in this war.
他得以向本国人民展示了一个巨大的成功故事。
He's been able to give his own people a tremendous success story.
波兰。
Poland.
我们一无所获。
We've got nothing.
我们毫无作为。
We've done nothing.
而法国存在主义哲学家让-保罗·萨特竟也被征召入伍。
And of all people, Jean Paul Sartre, the French existentialist, was drafted into the French army.
他在十一月的日记中写道:起初所有人都斗志昂扬,如今却因无聊而濒临崩溃。
And in November, he wrote in his diary, all the men were raring to go at the outset, but now they're dying of boredom.
战争机器正在空转。
The war machine is running in neutral.
他讲了个故事,说有个中士告诉他:'我觉得这一切都会解决的。'
And he tells a story about a sergeant who said to him, well, I think this is, you know, this is all gonna be sorted.
一切都会安排妥当的。
It's all gonna be arranged.
英国会妥协的。
England will climb down.
换句话说,法国人认为我们实际上是被想对抗希特勒的英国人拖下水的。
In other words, the French think we've actually been dragged into this really by the British who wanted to stand up to Hitler.
也许,你知道,我们可以达成某种协议,然后大家都能回家。
And maybe, you know, we can it'll there'll be some deal, and we can all go home.
这基本上就是我们想要的。
And that's basically what we want.
所以拉戈瓦的梦想在法军前线并未真正实现。
So kind of dreams of Lagoi not really manifest in the French lines.
第一次世界大战已经消磨掉了大部分战争热情和战斗精神之类的。
The first world war has wiped away a lot of the the the war enthusiasm and the sort of fighting spirits and whatnot.
出于完全可以理解的原因,我并不觉得这有什么奇怪的。
And for completely understandable reasons, I don't think there's anything weird about that.
这一切让希特勒掌握了主动权。
So all of this leaves Hitler with the initiative.
事实上,此刻他若有意,完全可以真正努力向英国和法国提出一项协议。
And actually, there is a point now where he could, if he was so minded, he could make a real effort to offer the British and the French a deal.
外交部的高级文官埃茨·冯·魏茨泽克告诉他,我认为如果你现在主动向伦敦和巴黎示好,他们有五分之一的可能性会接受。
So the senior civil servant at the Foreign Office, this guy called Erz von Weisecker, tells him, I reckon there's a one in five chance that if you go out of your way now to make overtures to London and to Paris, that they will accept.
这就是我们开头提到的那场演讲的背景。
So this is the context for the speech that we began with.
希特勒基本上是说,听着,波兰已经完蛋了。
And Hitler basically says, look, Poland is finished.
它永远不会再复国了。
It's never going to be brought back.
现在它已被我们和俄国人永久瓜分了。
It's divided permanently now between us and the Russians.
他说:这是我对英国和法国人民的呼吁。
He says, this is my appeal to the people of Britain and France.
你们是被所谓的'犹太国际资本主义和新闻界'拖入这场战争的。
You have been dragged into this by, quote, Jewish international capitalism and journalism.
而他将其与温斯顿·丘吉尔联系起来——这位前记者、资本主义的狂热捍卫者,当然还有着众多犹太联系人脉。
And the person that he associates with that is Winston Churchill, of course, a former journalist and, you know, an enthusiastic defender of capitalism and a man with a lot of Jewish contacts and friends.
希特勒说:为什么我们不召开第二次慕尼黑会议,用会议来解决欧洲安全问题?
And Hitler says, why don't we have another Munich, another conference to settle Europe's security?
当然,张伯伦当即拒绝了这一提议。
Now, of course, Chamberlain rejects this.
他本来就不可能接受。
He was always going to reject it.
是啊。
Yeah.
确实。
Of course.
一朝被蛇咬,十年怕井绳。
Once bitten, twice shy.
是啊。
Yeah.
而下议院也绝不会允许他接受这个提议。
And the House of Commons would never have allowed him to accept it.
如果英国和法国接受了,会发生什么?
Had Britain and France accepted, what would have happened?
我认为这只会推迟不可避免的结局,因为正如我们所见,希特勒已向他的将军们明确表态。
I think it would only have delayed the inevitable because as we've seen, Hitler has made it very clear to his generals.
他认为西方战争终有一天无法避免。
He thinks war in the West is inevitable one day anyway.
总之,希特勒某种程度上知道他们总会拒绝。
Anyway, Hitler kind of knows they're always going to reject it.
而他实际上急于推进西方战事,部分原因如你所说,他是个赌徒,这是他自我认知的重要部分。
And he is actually in a hurry to get on with the war in the West, partly because, as you said, he is a gambler, and that's an important part of his self image.
他痴迷于他所认为的那种大胆出击,你知道的,那种决定性的一击,诸如此类的事情。
He's obsessed with what he sees as the kind of the bold strike, you know, the decisive thrust, all of that kind of thing.
而且他认为让步和妥协是软弱的表现。
And he thinks concession and compromise are weakness.
他将这种特质与那些穿着硬领衬衫、打着雨伞的民选领导人联系在一起。
And he associates that with democratically elected leaders in kind of stiff collars and carrying umbrellas.
这完全不符合他的风格。
And that's not his vibe at all.
一点也不符合他的风格。
Not his vibe in the slightest.
但还有其他重要原因促使他
But there are also other good reasons why he'd
如此匆忙。
be in such a hurry.
第一点,正如我们在之前的系列中讨论过的,希特勒是个严重的疑病症患者,他知道父母早逝,认为自己也可能英年早逝。
Number one, as we've talked about in previous series, Hitler is a massive hypochondriac who knows that his parents died young, and he thinks that he might die young as well.
他痴迷于自己的健康,大量饮用枪支清洁油,试图调理身体。
And he is obsessed with his health, and he's drinking, he's necking gigantic quantities of gun cleaning oil in an attempt to sort himself out.
这可不明智,对吧?
And that's not wise, is it?
特别提醒那些可能想效仿阿道夫·希特勒的听众。
Just for anyone listening who might be tempted to emulate Adolf Hitler.
这里有点医学建议。
Bit of medical advice there.
真贴心。
That's nice.
别喝不干净的油。
Don't drink unclean oil.
也别入侵波兰。
Or invade Poland.
或者入侵波兰。
Or invade Poland.
对。
Right.
他也清楚德国的经济状况并不乐观。
He also knows that Germany's economy is not in a good shape.
所以基本上,他所谓的经济奇迹是建立在沙土之上的。
So basically, his so called economic miracle is built on sand.
他内心有种不断啃噬的需求,渴望更多的原材料、领土、资源和粮食。
He has this sort of gnawing need for more raw materials and more territory and resources and food.
若不扩张,德国经济就会崩溃。
And without expansion, the German economy will just collapse.
我是说,这一点确实需要重点强调,对吧?
I mean, that is a really important point to emphasize, isn't it?
此时德国的经济和军队都带有明显的波将金式虚假繁荣特质。
That there is, at this point, a real Potemkin quality about the German economy and also about the German armed forces.
它们并不像法国或英国人们通常认为的那样令人印象深刻。
They're not as impressive as people in France or Britain tend to assume.
同样地,经济也潜藏着可怕的危机,这意味着要想稳定经济,唯一的方法就是从被征服的领土掠夺财富和原材料。
And the economy, likewise, is is potentially in a terrible state, which means essentially that if it is going to be stabilized, the only way to do that is to plunder wealth and raw materials from conquered territories.
正是如此。
Exactly.
所以他必须持续获取橡胶、石油、食物、油脂等各类物资。
So he's got to keep consuming kind of rubber and oil and all of these kinds of things and food and fats.
还有铁矿石也很重要,对吧?
And iron ore, which will also be important, won't it?
当然,希特勒也清楚盟军希望打持久战。
And, of course, Hitler also knows the allies are hoping for a long war.
要知道,他们上次就是通过持久战取胜的。
You You know, they had a long war last time, and that's how they won.
他明白如果战争拖长,盟军就能加速重整军备计划。
He knows that if they have a long war, they will be able to up their rearmament programs.
长期来看,他们还能从殖民地甚至美国获得支援和资源,而这正是他最不愿看到的局面。
They'll get support and resources from their colonies and from The United States maybe in the long run, and that's the last thing he wants.
他想要迅速击垮他们。
He wants to knock them out quickly.
而且希特勒是否也清楚英国的战略会与一战时相同,即实施封锁?
And is it also the the specific fact that Hitler knows that Britain's strategy will be the same as in the great war, which is to impose a blockade?
要知道,封锁对一个已经摇摇欲坠的经济将是致命的打击。
And, you know, the the impact of a blockade on an already tottering economy will be lethal.
而这正是1918年让德国彻底崩溃的原因。
And that effectively is what had brought Germany to its knees in 1918.
这显然是他极力想要避免的。
That presumably is is absolutely what he wants to avoid.
是的。
Yeah.
德国人民也明白这一点。
And the German people know this.
别忘了,德国人民认为他们1918年并非在战场上战败。
I mean, don't forget the German people think they didn't lose the war in on the battlefield in 1918.
要知道,他们可能对此有误解,但这就是他们的想法。
You know, they might be wrong about that, but that's what they think.
他们认为是在国内后方输掉了战争,而他们想要避免重蹈覆辙。
They think they lost it at home on the home front, and that's what they want to avoid.
就在希特勒从波兰返回柏林的当天,他就对指挥官们说:我要你们立即制定进攻西方的计划。
So the very day that Hitler came back from Berlin from Poland, he said to his commanders, I want you to draw up plans for an attack in the West now.
他说时间对我们不利。
He said time works against us.
我们必须继续行动。
We have to continue.
他还说:关键问题是。
And he said, here's the thing.
真正的威胁来自英国人。
The real threat here are the British.
法国人不足为惧。
The French are useless.
希特勒从不袭击法国。
Hitler never raids the French.
他说,如果我们先击败法国,英国在欧洲大陆将无立足之地。
He said, if we knock the French out first, the British will not have a foothold on the continent.
所以要让英国屈服,这是原话,我们必须摧毁法国。
So to bring England to its knees, this is a direct quote, we must destroy France.
而且就
And just
需要强调的是,他对英国的担忧不在于其陆军,而在于其舰队及其扼杀德国经济的能力。
to emphasize, what he is nervous about with Britain isn't its army, but its fleet and its ability to throttle Germany's economy.
但他认为,如果让英国在欧洲大陆失去所有立足点,他们就不会继续战斗。
But he thinks that if they deny the British any foothold on the on the European mainland, then they won't carry on.
他的将军们问,那么你打算何时行动?
His generals say, well, when would you like to do it?
希特勒说,我要现在就行动。
Hitler says, I want to do it now.
我想在1939年秋天就行动。
I want to do it this autumn, in the 1939.
他们明显被震惊了。
And they are visibly shocked.
他们目瞪口呆。
They are stunned.
就连赫尔曼·戈林——你知道的,那个山一样的男人,希特勒的心腹——他吸血鬼般的面容都失去了血色。
Even Hermann Goring, you know, man mountain, Hitler, top Hitler crony, He kind of the blood drains from his vampiric features.
他无法离开。
He can't leave.
他是空军司令,对吧?
Commander of the air force, isn't he?
他知道空军还没准备好进行这样的战役。
And he knows that the air force isn't ready for such a campaign.
想必将军们也认为国防军同样没准备好进行这样的战役。
And presumably, the generals feel that the Wehrmacht isn't ready for such a campaign either.
正是如此。
Exactly.
所以当张伯伦表示拒绝和平协议时,希特勒说,太好了。
So when Chamberlain says, you know, no, no to a peace deal, Hitler says, great.
让我们加快这次行动的部署计划。
Let's step up the plans for this operation.
他对戈培尔说,从某种意义上说,张伯伦的拒绝是个好消息。
And he says to Goebbels, this is good news in a way that Chamberlain has said no.
我很高兴我们可以对英国出手了。
I'm glad we can go for England.
我们必将获胜。
We will definitely win.
我们在1918年失败的唯一原因是被背叛了。
The only reason we lost in 1918 is because we were betrayed.
我是说,希特勒这种想法太愚蠢了。
I mean, this is foolish from Hitler.
这正是一个绝佳例证,展示他的意识形态如何蒙蔽了他对政治、军事和经济现实的认知。
This is the kind of a really good example of how his ideology blinds him to political, military, economic realities.
他还说英国人必须通过艰难的方式吸取教训。
And he says the English will have to learn the hard way.
他对自己的总司令也表达了类似观点,这位我们将会多次提及的人物名叫瓦尔特·冯·布劳希奇。
And he makes a similar point to his commander in chief, who's a man we'll be talking about a fair bit, who is called Walter von Braukich.
布劳希奇出身于普鲁士军人世家。
Now Braukich is from a Prussian military family.
他成长于那种爱国奉献与职责至上的传统环境中。
He's been raised in the sort of tradition of patriotic service and duty and whatnot.
他实际上是军队的典型代表,因为布劳希奇行事一贯非常谨慎。
He's a really good example actually of the army because Braukich was always very cautious.
他当初就不想进军奥地利参与德奥合并。
He didn't wanna go into Austria in the Anschluss.
他也不想入侵捷克斯洛伐克。
He didn't wanna go into Czechoslovakia.
他对这些事情总是非常紧张,认为会引发一场德国将战败的世界大战。
He was always very nervous of these things, thought they would provoke a war, a world war that Germany would lose.
但他实际上欠希特勒的债。
But he is literally in debt to Hitler.
希特勒借给他数万帝国马克,帮助布劳希奇与妻子离婚并迎娶情妇。
Hitler has lent him tens of thousands of Reichsmarks to help Brauchitsch divorce his wife and marry his mistress.
因此他完全被希特勒所控制,并且对他心怀畏惧。
So he's completely enthralled to Hitler, and he's terrified of him.
希特勒的传记作者伊恩·克肖称他为——我直接引用原话——‘没有骨气’。
Ian Kershaw, Hitler's biographer, calls him, and I quote, spineless.
而布劳希奇确实毫无骨气。
And Brauchitsch is spineless.
尽管身为陆军总司令,他却像个十足的懦夫。
He's he's like he's despite being the head of the army, he is a kind of massive weakling of a man.
尽管他对此忧心忡忡,希特勒却对他说:不行。
And even though he's anxious about this, Hitler says to him, no.
我要你尽快对付英国人。
I want you to get at the British as quickly as possible.
英国人是那种只有被打败后才会跟你谈判的民族,你必须先打败他们。
The British are the kind of people that will only talk to you once they've been beaten, and you have to beat them first.
这次行动将被称为'黄色方案'。
And the attack will be called Fall Gelb case yellow.
我希望行动在11月12日实施。
And I want it to happen on the November 12.
在接下来的几周里,希特勒确实在自我激励。
And in the next few weeks, Hitler is really working some self up.
他处于一种只有他才会有的极度亢奋状态。
He's very excited in the way only he can be.
他召集了所有纳粹党官员。
He he gathers all his Nazi party officials.
他说:'我们将在几周内发动进攻。'
He says, we're gonna be attacking within weeks.
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我们要轰炸英国和法国的城市。
We're going to bomb the cities of Britain and France.
他说,我的梦想是重建神圣罗马帝国。
My dream, he says, is to recreate the holy Roman Empire.
所以我们要收回瑞士。
So let's get Switzerland back.
我们要收回比利时。
Let's get Belgium back.
还有一点荷兰。
It's a bit of Holland.
对。
Yeah.
让我们在西方再次使德国伟大起来。
Let's make Germany great again in the West.
他越是谈论这个,你知道,这就是希特勒的特点之一。
And the more he talks about this, this is, you know, one of the things with Hitler.
他越说,就越沉醉于自己的雄辩之中。
The more he talks, the more he gets drunk on his own rhetoric.
所以到了11月6日,当他与戈培尔交谈时,他说英格兰的实力如今纯粹是个神话。
So by the November 6, when he talks to Goebbels, he says England's power is now simply a myth.
这已不再是现实。
It's not a reality any longer.
这就更有理由必须将其粉碎。
All the more reason why it must be smashed.
你知道吗,他们就像青少年一样,我总是这么觉得,在派对或类似场合前越来越兴奋。
You know, they're like teenagers, I always think, getting more and more giddy before a party or something.
容我提问,这是我兄弟在他书中提出的观点,实际上自腓特烈大帝时代以来,普鲁士及后来的德国在大陆战争中就形成了速战速决的战略传统,因为这是德国可能取得胜利的唯一途径。
Just to ask, and this is a point my brother makes in his book, there is actually a sense in which it has ever since the time of Frederick the Great been Prussian and then German strategy in a continental war to kind of plan for rapid attacks because it's the only way that the Germans can possibly have a victory.
他们在十九世纪对丹麦、对法国都实施过这种战略。
And they've done it, you know, in the nineteenth century against Denmark, against France.
当然,1914年他们策划的也正是同样的战略——快速进攻,横扫比利时,直取巴黎。
And, of course, in 1914, it was exactly the same strategy that they were planning, you know, the the rapid attack, the sweep through Belgium, and descending on Paris.
我的意思是,这就是德国战略一贯的核心。
I mean, this is what German strategy has always been about.
所以从这个角度来看,希特勒其实并没有做什么特别不同寻常的事。
So to that extent, Hitler isn't really doing something that unusual.
确实没有。
No.
我认为他们有两个贯穿德国历史的明显大问题。
And I think they have two big problems, obviously, that run right through German history.
第一,他们很容易被敌人包围。
Number one, they're very easily encircled by enemies.
这是由于德国的地理位置造成的。
So because of Germany's geographical location.
第二,同样因为地理位置,他们通往海洋的出口有限,贸易很容易被封锁等手段扼制。
And number two, also because of its geographical location, it has limited outlets to the sea, so its trade can very easily be choked off by blockades and so on.
这两点在第一次世界大战中长期都对德国不利。
And both of those things obviously worked against Germany in the long run-in the First World War.
我的意思是,你可以说他前期的战略眼光在某种程度上是对的,因为他确实打败了法国。
And I mean, you can argue his strategic vision up to a point is right because, I mean, he does beat France.
问题在于,正如我们整个系列中会看到的,他的巨大愚蠢,就像拿破仑一样。
The problem is the the great problem, which will run through all this series that we talk about for Hitler, his great folly, a tiny bit like Napoleon, actually.
他从未考虑过这一切将如何收场。
He doesn't ever have a sense of how this will end.
因为如果英国人不同意妥协,那么他永远无法获得好结局。
Because if the British don't agree to do a deal, then how does it ever end for him in a good way?
因为英国拥有自己的帝国和舰队,正如我们将看到的,他们实际上是不可征服的。
Because the British have their empire, they have their fleet, they're, as we'll see, they're effectively unconquerable.
那么,你知道,这种情况下该何去何从?
So, you know, where do you go with this?
这就是他的困境。
That's his problem.
所以
And so
这对将军们来说是个忧虑。
that's an anxiety for the generals.
但我想,短期内他们也会意识到,要彻底击败法国,确实需要主动进攻。
But also, I guess, it's it's it's not so much, you know, in the in the kind of the short term, they would recognize that to certainly knock out France, they do need to go on the attack.
但我猜问题在于时机而非整体战略本身。
But I'm guessing it's it's the timing that's the issue rather than the kind of overall strategy itself.
是的。
Yeah.
我认为是时机问题。
I think it's the timing.
要知道,这些人很多都曾在第一次世界大战的战壕中作战,在东线打过仗。
It's the you know, these are people often who served in the trenches in the First World War, who fought on the Eastern Front.
输掉一战的经历是他们人生中最具塑造性的时刻。
So the experience of losing the First World War is the single most formative moment of their lives.
因此,他们当然会对再次在西方掷骰子感到焦虑。
And so, of course, they're gonna be anxious about throwing the dice yet again in the West.
所以,你知道,有个叫里特尔·冯·里布的上将在日记里写道,我简直不敢相信我们又要穿越荷兰和比利时了。
So, you know, there's a guy called Colonel General Ritter von Lieb who writes in his diary, you know, I can't believe we're gonna go through Holland and Belgium again.
你知道,这些都是中立国家。
You know, they're neutral countries.
我们又一次
We're once again
上次效果可真好。
Worked out so well before.
是啊。
Yeah.
我们要重蹈覆辙了。
We're gonna make the same mistake.
他在日记中写道,全世界都会与德国为敌,如果我们这么做的话。
He writes in his diary, the whole world will turn on Germany, you know, if we do this.
而这正是对希特勒政权的重大威胁。
And and this is the big threat to Hitler's regime.
希特勒政权面临的威胁,尽管他一直在指责犹太人、共产主义者、社会民主党人、工会成员等等。
The threat to Hitler's regime for all that he's gone on about, of course, the Jews, communists, social democrats, trade unionists, whatever.
真正的威胁始终来自军队,来自德国政治中民族主义保守派系。
The real threat has always been from the army, from the kind of nationalist conservative wing of German politics.
这就是为什么在长刀之夜清洗自己阵营时,他实际上是在讨好军队,因为他担心与他们疏远。
That's why the knight of the long knives, when he purged his own movement, he was basically sucking up to the army because he was worried about alienating them.
所以军队这边还存在某种阶级因素,对吧?他们是普鲁士贵族,看不起希特勒。
And so with the army, there's a kind of also class element, isn't there, that they're kind of Prussian aristocrats, and they look down on Hitler.
这个奥地利下士算老几?
Who is this Austrian corporal?
他凭什么对我们指手画脚?
You know, who is he to boss us around?
甚至在二战爆发前,到1938年时,军队或政治核心圈里就有不少人认为希特勒疯了,正把德国引向灾难。
And even before the outbreak of the second world war, so really by the 1938, there are quite a few groups of people in kind of the army or in political establishment circles who think Hitler is bonkers and he's leading Germany to disaster.
他们是民族主义者,未必反对他的目标,但就是觉得——得了吧。
They're nationalists, so they don't necessarily disagree with his aims, but they just think, come on.
这实在太鲁莽且适得其反了。
This is so reckless and so counterproductive.
他们确实没有错。
Again, they are not wrong.
外交部内部有一个团体。
So there's a group at the foreign office.
德国军事情报局有一个团体,他们为卡纳里斯海军上将效力。
There's a group at the ABVARE, which is German intelligence working for Admiral Canaris.
有一群民族主义政客围绕着一个叫卡尔·格尔德勒的人,他曾担任帝国物价专员。
There is a group of nationalist politicians around a guy called Karl Gerdler, who'd once been the Reich Price Commissioner.
尤其是一群忠于前陆军参谋长路德维希·贝克的军官,我们在上一系列节目中讨论过他。
And in particular, there's a group of army officers who are loyal to the former army chief of staff, Ludwig Beck, who we talked about in our last series.
我们讨论过贝克在1938年因未能说服其他将军反对希特勒而辞职。
We talked about how Beck resigned in 1938 after failing to get the other generals to turn on Hitler.
实际上,1938年曾有一次政变计划,但因英法在慕尼黑对希特勒的绥靖政策而被放弃了。
And actually, there were plans for a coup at the 1938, which were abandoned because Britain and France appeased Hitler in Munich.
因此将军们认为,嗯,是的,现在还不是时候。
And so the generals thought, well, yeah, this isn't the time.
于是他们放弃了计划。
And so they dropped their scheme.
他们之间仍保持着某种联系。
They're still kind of in touch with each other.
所以他们还在非正式地闲聊着。
So they're still kind of informally chatting.
你知道,这家伙有点疯疯癫癫的,对吧?
You know, this bloke's a bit bonkers, isn't he?
知道吗,也许我们得除掉他。
Know, maybe we'll have to get rid of him.
令人惊讶的是——这可能会让许多听众感到意外——德国陆军高层也参与其中。
And amazingly, and this will probably surprise a lot of listeners, the men at the top of the German army are in on this.
正如我描述过的瓦尔特·冯·布劳希奇——那个欠希特勒人情的人,以及他的参谋长弗朗茨·哈尔德——一个戴着眼镜、作风刻板的参谋军官,他们私下里讨论除掉希特勒已经有好几个月了。
So Walter von Braukich, who I described, the guy who's in debt to Hitler, and his chief of staff, who is a sort of clipped, bespectacled staff officer called Franz Halder, they have been privately talking about getting rid of Hitler for months and months.
既然他表示要进攻西方,他们便在10月14日召开了一次秘密会议。
And now that he says that he wants to attack the West, they have a secret meeting on the October 14.
哈尔德对布劳维奇说:
And Halder says to Braukic, look.
我们目前有三个选择。
We've got three options here.
1. 我们顺从希特勒。
Number one, we go along with Hitler.
我们进攻西方。
We attack the West.
2. 我们设法说服他推迟并取消行动。
Number two, we somehow persuade him to wait and to call it off.
3. 我们必须进行根本性变革。
Or number three, we have to make fundamental changes.
那么根本性变革具体指什么?
And what does fundamental changes mean?
这可能意味着我们得宣布希特勒疯了,逮捕他,并在柏林发动政变。
It probably means we're gonna have to declare Hitler mad, put him under arrest, and launch a coup in Berlin.
而布劳希奇,正如伊恩·克肖所说,是个没骨气的人,他绝不会选择第三个方案。
And Braukich, because he is, as Iain Kershaw says, spineless, he's never gonna go for the third option.
他说,听着。
He says, look.
我认为我们只能试着说服希特勒改变主意。
I mean, I think we're we're gonna just have to try and persuade Hitler to change his mind.
这就是布劳基奇想做的事。
So that's what Braukich wants to do.
但他的副手哈尔德对此并不信服。
Now his deputy, Halder, is not convinced by this.
他认为希特勒是不可说服的。
He thinks Hitler is unpersuadable.
到1939年11月初,陆军总参谋长哈尔德已与其他密谋团体取得了联系。
And by early November nineteen thirty nine, Halder, the chief of staff of the army, has made contact with other groups of plotters.
他们有个计划。
They have a scheme.
他们要刺杀希特勒。
They will kill Hitler.
他们将逮捕其他纳粹高官,接管德国政权,并与盟军谈判和平。
They will arrest the leaders of the other Nazi bigwigs, and they'll take Germany over, and they will negotiate peace with the allies.
哈尔德实际上派了中间人去联系其他主要将领,如费多尔·冯·博克、格尔德·冯·伦德施泰特,这些将领们将在本系列中频繁提及。
Haldur actually sent an intermediary to some of the other leading generals, Fedor von Bock, Gurt von Rundstedt, generals who will be hearing a lot about in this series.
这些将领表示:是啊,我也不想在西线发动进攻,这简直就是1914年的重演。
And these generals say, yeah, I don't like the thought of attacking in the West during this, you know, a replay of 1914 either.
但我觉得我们无法发动政变,因为我不认为我们的下级军官会服从我们。
But I don't think we can do a coup because I don't think our junior officers would obey us.
你明白吗?
You know?
实际上我认为他们是对的,因为1944年瓦尔基里行动(汤姆·克鲁斯电影《刺杀希特勒》中的施陶芬贝格计划)就发生了这种情况。
And, actually, I think they're right because this is what happens in 1944 with operation Valkyrie, Tom Cruise film, the Stauffenberg plot.
哈尔达说,嗯,我在想公众会怎么看待这件事,这让你对这些将军的阶级背景有所了解。
And Halda says, well, I wonder what the public would think, and this tells you something about the class background of these generals.
哈尔德问他父亲的司机:你觉得德国人民会怎么看待针对希特勒的政变?
Halder asks his father's chauffeur, what do you think the German people would think if there was a coup against Hitler?
司机回答:什么?
And the chauffeur says, what?
人民热爱元首。
People love the Fuhrer.
你知道吗?
You know?
他们会感到震惊。
They would be appalled.
这将是一件可怕的事。
This would be a terrible thing.
哈尔德对此非常震惊,随后回去说:哦,这可能是个糟糕的计划,因为司机认为...我们还是放弃吧。
And Halder is very shocked by this and then goes back and says, oh, this is probably a bad plan because the chauffeur thinks And we're gonna bunk off this.
是啊。
Yeah.
我们来到决定性的一天,即1939年5月11日。
We come to a decisive day, which is the 11/05/1939.
如果按照希特勒的要求在12日发动进攻,他们必须在这天中午前确认作战准备的命令。
If the attack is going to happen on the twelfth as Hitler wants, they have to confirm the orders to make operational preparations at lunchtime this day.
正午时分,哈尔德和布劳希奇进入总理府试图说服希特勒取消行动。
At midday, Halder and Brauchitsch go into the Reich Chancellery to try to persuade Hitler to call it off.
部分密谋者明确知道他们去参加了这次会议,他们希望希特勒会拒绝,这样布劳希奇就有勇气最终下令发动政变。
And some of the plotters definitely know that they've gone to have this meeting, and they're they're hoping Hitler will say no, and then Brauchitsch will have the guts to finally order this coup.
布劳希奇走了进去。
Brauchitsch goes in.
哈尔德在外面等候。
Halda waits outside.
哈尔德现在随身携带一把上了膛的左轮手枪,以防有机会与希特勒独处时,他能枪杀希特勒。
Halda is now carrying a loaded revolver in case he gets the chance to be with Hitler alone, and he will could shoot Hitler.
于是负债累累的布劳希奇前去面见希特勒。
So Brauchitsch, weighed down by his debts, goes in to see Hitler.
他非常紧张,甚至有些发抖。
He's really nervous, kind of shaky.
他说道:'元首阁下,我...我认为我们实际上还没准备好对抗法国和英国。'
And he says, oh, mindfuhrer, you know, I I don't actually think we're ready to take on France and Britain.
'我认为这是个非常糟糕的主意。'
I think it's a it's a very bad idea.
'当我回顾波兰战役时,发现存在一些缺陷和问题。'
When I look at the Polish campaign, there are few kind of flaws and stuff.
'我认为如果我们真的在西线发动进攻,结果可能会像1918年那样。'
I think possibly, if we did attack in the West, it might turn out like 1918.
而这正是希特勒最爱听的强硬言论。
And this is the kind of fighting talk that Hitler loves.
对吧?
Right?
是啊。
Yeah.
所以他一提到1918年,对吧?1918年,这是希特勒人生中最痛苦的时刻,当他在疗养院听到德国战败的消息时痛哭流涕。
So as soon as he mentions 1918, right, 1918, the most traumatic moment of Hitler's life when he cried in the sanatorium at the news of Germany's defeat.
布劳希奇一提到1918年,希特勒就彻底暴怒了。
As soon as Brauchitsch mentions 1918, Hitler goes absolutely bonkers.
那是一种唾沫横飞的暴怒。
It's kind of spittle flecked rage.
他说问题不在部队身上
He says the problem is not the troops.
部队表现很好
The troops are great.
部队都爱戴我
The troops love me.
问题出在陆军最高指挥部,他们驻扎在柏林郊外的措森
The problem is army high command, which is in Zossen, which is kind of suburb of Berlin.
他说,我知道佐森的精神,我会摧毁它。
He says, I know the spirit of Zossen, and I will destroy it.
然后他冲出房间,砰地关上门。
And then he storms out of the room, and he slams the door.
勃劳希契,彻底崩溃了。
Brauchitsch, broken man.
吓得尿裤子了。
Wets himself.
是的。
Yeah.
他基本上像果冻一样发抖,或者美国人可能会说,大概是果冻(Jell-O)。
He's basically shaking like a jelly, or as Americans would say, presumably Jell o.
果冻(Jell-O)。
Jell o.
没错。
Right.
确实如此。
Exactly.
他浑身颤抖着离开了,像果冻一样。
He goes out shaking like a Jell o.
他惊恐万分,面如土色。
And he terrified, blood drained from his features.
他对哈尔达说:事情是这样的。
And he says to Halda, this is what happened.
哈尔达问:什么?
And Halda says, what?
他当时在谈论措森,陆军总司令部所在的措森。
He was talking about Zossen, about army high commander Zossen.
哦,他们肯定已经知道我们一直在...你知道的,我们一直在
Oh, they must know that I've been you know, we've been
进行这些谈话。
having these chats.
措森,哈尔达是住在那里吗?
Zossen, is that where Halda lives?
不是。
No.
那是他的办公室所在地。
It's where he has his office.
所以那里就是陆军最高指挥部的办公室。
So they have that's the offices of Army High Command.
于是他心想:天啊,盖世太保盯上我们了。
So he thinks Christ, the Gestapo are on to us.
然后他匆忙赶回措森的办公室,疯狂地收集所有文件并销毁它们。
And how the rushes back to Zosn to his office, and he gets frantically gets all these papers and kind of destroys them.
与此同时,就在他们行动时,希特勒下达了命令。
So meanwhile, while they're doing that, Hitler gives the order.
继续吧。
Go ahead.
入侵将于11月12日开始。
The invasion will start on the November 12.
现在听众可能会想,等等。
Now, listeners may be thinking, but hold on.
11月12日西方并没有发生入侵。
There wasn't an invasion in the West on the November 12.
而整件事最疯狂的地方在于。
And here's the mad thing about all this.
希特勒刚下达命令,天气就突然变了,开始下起雨来。
Hitler gets the order, and immediately the weather changes, and it just starts raining.
他们因此不得不取消行动。
And they have to call it off for that reason.
基本上,冬季雨季已经开始了。
Basically, the winter rains have started.
地面变成了泥泞。
The ground has turned to mud.
由于泥泞不堪,坦克部队将无法通行。
The panzers won't be able to get through because it's so muddy.
他们表示,既然如此,实际上我们只能将计划推迟到1940年。
And they say, oh, well, after all that, actually, we'll have to just postpone it till the 1940.
总之,连希特勒也接受了这个事实。
Anyway And so even Hitler accepts that.
希特勒总不会跟天气较劲吧。
Hitler's not gonna argue with the weather.
我不知道。
I don't know.
意志的力量。
Force of will.
我认为即便是希特勒在气候面前也得低头。
I think even Hitler bows in the face of the climate.
至少在现阶段是这样——当然到了1941年他就不认输了。
At least at this point, of course, he doesn't in 1941.
他们把事情搞得一团糟。
They make a terrible mess of it.
我正想说,因为这并没有阻止他入侵俄罗斯。
I was gonna say because, it didn't stop him invading Russia.
没错。
No.
你说得对。
You're right.
但不管怎样,他们推迟了。
But, anyway, they postponed it.
所以军队出击的机会已经消失,希特勒实际上暂时安全了
So the chance for the army to strike is gone, and Hitler is actually safe for the
暂时。
time being.
还是说,他真的安全吗,多米尼克?
Or is he, Dominic?
因为三天后,也就是1939年8月11日。
Because three days later so this is the 11/08/1939.
他要去慕尼黑,对吧?
He is going to Munich, isn't he?
因为这是啤酒馆暴动的周年纪念日,在纳粹日历中是个神圣时刻。
Because it's the anniversary of the Beer Hall Putsch, kind of sacred moment in the Nazi calendar.
按照传统,希特勒会去啤酒馆,向他的老战友——那些老战士们发表演讲。
And it's traditional that Hitler will go to the Beer Hall, and he will address an audience of his his old comrades, the old fighters.
他预计在8点30分到达,然后会发表演讲——不是半小时,也不是一小时,而是两小时。
And he's scheduled to to arrive at 08:30, and he will then speak for not half an hour, not one hour, but two hours.
但多米尼克和听众们,当希特勒在保镖簇拥下走进啤酒馆时,一颗炸弹正在滴答作响。
But Dominic and listeners, as Hitler walks into that beer hall surrounded by his bodyguards, a bomb is literally ticking.
我们将在广告后回来讲述后续发展。
And we will be back after the break to say what happens.
本节目由人民邮编彩票赞助播出。
This question is brought to you by People's Postcode Lottery.
要知道,历史充满了意外,那些无人预见的关键时刻,世界天翻地覆的转折点,一切就此改变。
You know, history is full of surprises, moments that no one saw coming, moments when the world turned on its axis, and everything changed.
随着今年接近尾声,多米尼克,人民邮编彩票史上最大奖池——高达3810万英镑——将在12月抽奖中由英国各地的中奖邮编分享,每张彩票收入的30%将用于支持当地社区的慈善事业和公益事业。
And as this year draws to a close, Dominic, People's Postcode Lottery's biggest ever prize pot, that's £38,200,000, will be shared among winning postcodes across Great Britain in their December draw with 30% of every ticket supporting charities and good causes in local communities.
真是太好了。
So wonderful stuff.
是的。
Yeah.
太好了。
Wonderful.
他们问了我们一个非常贴切的问题。
And they've asked us a very fitting question, and here is the question, everybody.
从罗马的衰落到互联网的崛起,历史上有哪些重大转折点?
So of all the great moments of change from the fall of Rome to the rise of the Internet, what was the single biggest ever turning point in history?
汤姆,关于转折点,我不确定该如何定义它们。
So, Tom, turning points, I mean, I don't know what defines them.
规模、速度、影响
Scale, speed, legacy.
比如罗马帝国的衰落,印刷术的兴起这些,你觉得呢?
You think the, I don't know, the fall of Rome, the the rise of the printing press.
对于历史上最重大的转折点,你有什么答案吗?
Do you have a do you have an answer for the greatest turning point in history?
我认为有两个候选事件。
I think there are two candidates.
其一是农业革命,即狩猎采集者逐渐定居下来种植作物的过程。
One of them would be the agrarian revolution, so the process by which hunter gatherers, came to settle down, plant crops.
而这些作物最终促成了城市化的出现。
And those crops then enabled in the long run the the emergence of urbanism.
但我认为从长远影响来看,可能比农业革命更深远的是工业革命。
But I think possibly even profounder in its long term consequences than the agrarian revolution is the industrial revolution.
我这么说不仅仅因为工业革命始于英国——当然要为英国的这一开创性成就喝彩。
And I'm not saying that just because it began here in Britain, though hooray for Britain for kicking it all off.
但如果没有这场变革,我们就不可能录制这期节目并让你听到。
But we would not be able to record this episode and have it heard by you without that process of change.
我的意思是,我们现在生活在如此技术先进的世界,而这没有工业革命是不可能实现的。
I mean, the we live in such a a technologically advanced world now, and it that would not have happened without the industrial revolution.
生活水平的大幅提升,催生了城市化进程,诸如此类的变化。
Massively improved living standards, led to urbanism, all these kinds of things.
我想所有这些问题的难点在于如何衡量它们的影响,对吧?
I suppose the difficulty with all these things is about measuring their impact, isn't it?
你知道,是看即时的冲击吗?
You know, is it about the immediate shock?
还是看持久的后果?
Is it about the lasting consequences?
而这些后果往往非常复杂。
And those consequences are often very complicated.
以工业革命的遗产为例:城市、资本主义、碳排放。
The industrial revolution's legacy, for example, cities, capitalism, carbon.
当然,它带给了我们维多利亚时代慈善事业的黄金时期。
Of course, gave us the great age of Victorian philanthropy.
说到慈善,人民邮编彩票在这方面做得非常出色。
Thinking of philanthropy, the People's Postcode Lottery is brilliant on this.
以他们支持的慈善机构ActionAid为例,
So take an example of ActionAid, the charity that they support.
它赋予社区力量。
It empowers communities.
支持妇女儿童构建更安全、更公平的未来。
It supports women and children to build safer, fairer futures.
这正是我们钟爱的那种事业,对吧,汤姆?
And that's the kind of thing that we we love, don't we, Tom?
噢,我们太喜欢了。
Oh, we love that.
我想,差不多该为这些关于重大转折点的思考做个总结了。
And I guess kind of just kind of wrapping up this this these reflections on great turning points.
我认为其中一个问题在于,人们总是容易认为自己正在经历的变化过程是最具重大意义的。
I suppose one of the problems is that you're always liable to think that the the process of change that you are living through is the most significant.
然后,当其他重大变革或转折点发生时,人们又会转而认为那才是最重要的。
And then and that some other great revolution, great turning point may happen, and people will move on and think that that's the biggest.
但我们如今正生活在工业革命的后果之中,所以这就是为什么我认为我会选择它。
But we are living through the consequences of the industrial revolution now, and so that's why, I think I would, I would choose it.
但毫无疑问,历史上的重大转折点确实提醒我们世界变化之快,而且往往在人们毫无预期时就悄然降临。
But, certainly, the great turning points in history do remind us just how quickly the world can change, and often it kind of creeps up when people aren't expecting it.
汤姆,这种惊喜精神正是人民邮编彩票在今年12月抽奖中设立史上最大奖池的核心所在。
And that same spirit of surprise, Tom, sits at the heart of People's Postcode Lottery's biggest ever prize pot in this December's draws.
因此有3820万英镑将在英国各地的中奖邮编间分享,而且每张彩票的30%都会用于支持慈善事业和公益事业,包括ActionAid。
So there's £38,200,000 to be shared among winning postcodes across Great Britain, and 30% of every ticket supports charities and good causes, including ActionAid.
是啊。
Yeah.
因为每张彩票背后都有更宏大的意义,那就是人们齐心协力促成真正的改变。
Because behind every ticket, there is something bigger at work, and that is people coming together to make real change happen.
你的门在抽屉里吗?
Is your door in the drawer?
请在11月30日午夜前登录peoplespostcodelottery.co.uk注册。
Sign up before midnight on the November 30 at peoplespostcodelottery.co.uk.
大家好,欢迎回到《余下皆历史》节目。
Hello, everyone, and welcome back to The Rest is History.
此刻是1939年8月11日的夜晚。
It is the evening of the 11/08/1939.
阿道夫·希特勒已抵达慕尼黑的啤酒馆,参加啤酒馆暴动的周年纪念活动。
Adolf Hitler has arrived in the Beer Hall in Munich for the annual celebration of the Beer Hall Putsch.
但是多米尼克,他丝毫不知自己的性命、德国的未来乃至世界历史的进程此刻都命悬一线。
But, Dominic, little does he know that his life, the future of Germany, the course of world history itself are all hanging in the balance.
对。
Right.
现在我们回到正题——我注意到你跳过了慕尼黑啤酒馆Burgebraukeller的发音,不过我们稍后再处理这个。
Now we'll get back to I noticed you skipped pronouncing the name of the Beer Hall, the Burgebraukeller in Munich, but we'll get back there.
我不想用外语吓到大家。
I don't wanna frighten people with foreign languages.
好的。
Okay.
好的。
Okay.
我们稍后再回到那里,不过现在是否该拉远镜头?
Well, we'll get back there in a second, but let's should we pull back the camera?
就这么办。
Let's do that.
就像顶级纪录片那样布置场景,准确解释为何这颗炸弹正在倒计时。
Like a top documentary to set the scene and explain precisely why this bomb is ticking.
尽管普通德国人对迅速战胜波兰感到欣喜,但他们并未充满战争热情。
So among ordinary Germans, although they were delighted by the quick victory over Poland, they are not suffused with war enthusiasm.
他们实际上相当焦虑。
They're actually quite anxious.
原因在于,作为一个普通德国人,过去几个月的生活确实变得更糟了。
And the reason for that is that if you're an ordinary German, life has definitely got worse in the last few months.
自战争爆发以来,如果你从事出口行业,你就失去了出口市场。
So since the war started, if you work in an export industry, you've lost your export markets.
德国工厂正面临原材料短缺。
German factories are short of raw materials.
政府预算的每一分钱现在都流向了武器和弹药。
Every last penny of the government's budget is now going into weapons and munitions.
纳粹在战争爆发后立即实施了紧缩计划。
And the Nazis had brought in an immediate austerity program as soon as the war broke out.
这意味着更高的税收。
So that means higher taxes.
不再有加班费。
There's no more overtime.
他们还削减了工人的休假。
They cut leave for workers.
工资被冻结,诸如此类。
Wages are frozen and so on and so forth.
而且没有咖啡了,是吗?
And there's no coffee, is there?
所以他们只能喝什么来着?
So they're all having to drink what is it?
马卡福克。
Mucka fuck.
那种用菊苣做的假摩卡。
The the fake mocha, which is made from chicory.
是啊。
Yeah.
这类东西有很多。
There's a lot of that kind of stuff.
他们当然还记得一战时的情形。
And they, of course, remember it from the first World War.
年长者还记得当时生活有多艰难。
Older people remember how hard things got.
虽然他们不能罢工,但旷工现象很普遍。
Although they can't go on strike, there's a lot of absenteeism.
人们开始不去上班。
People stop turning up to work.
他们开始拒绝加班。
They start refusing to do overtime.
因此日常生活无疑变得更加艰难。
And so daily life is definitely getting harder.
人们感觉工作时间更长但工资却停滞不前。
People feel they're working longer hours for stagnant pay.
食物价格更贵了。
Food is more expensive.
1939至1940年的冬天异常寒冷,但他们很难弄到煤炭。
It's a very, very cold winter in 1939, 1940, but they can't get hold of coal easily.
甚至连火车也不例外。
Even the trains.
所以德国现在的火车状况实际上非常糟糕。
So the German trains now actually are terrible.
在欧洲最差,准点率最低。
The worst in Europe, the worst punctuality record.
不过1939年时它们本来就很差。
But they're pretty poor in 1939 anyway.
所以法西斯能让火车准点运行的说法是错误的。
So the idea that fascists make their trains run on time is is wrong.
战争压力对德国铁路系统来说太过沉重,还发生了两起导致200多人死亡的撞车事故。
The pressure of war is too much for the German train system, and there were two crashes that kill more than two hundred people.
这引发了极大的公愤。
So there's great outrage about this.
最重要的是,人们显然都很担忧。
And above all, people are obviously worried.
要知道,英国和法国,那可是正经的大国。
You know, Britain and France, you know, they're serious countries.
他们能像一代人之前那样打败我们。
They could beat us as they did, you know, a generation ago.
而对此感到担忧的人中,有个毫不起眼的家伙叫乔治·埃尔萨。
And one of the people who's worried about this is a totally unremarkable guy called Georg Elsa.
我认为埃尔萨是二十世纪三十年代德国政治的一个绝佳缩影。
And Elsa, I think, is a really nice example of German politics in the nineteen thirties.
理查德·埃文斯在他关于纳粹的巨著中就用了这个角色,恰恰因为他没什么政治倾向。
Richard Evans kinda uses him in his great book on the Nazis precisely because he's not very political.
他不是犹太人吧?
He's not Jewish, is he?
他也不像后来的白玫瑰运动参与者那样特别虔诚。
He's not particularly religious like the the White Rose campaigners in due course would be.
他就是个彻头彻尾的普通路人甲。
He's just a totally boring everyman.
埃尔泽来自符腾堡,德国西南部,出生于1903年。
And Elser came from Wurttemberg, sort of Southwestern Germany, born in nineteen o three.
他的父亲是个酗酒者,性格暴力,这使盖·奥古斯特终生厌恶欺凌与权威。
His father was an alcoholic and gave him he was a violent man and gave Gay August a lifelong hatred of bullies and of authority.
他成为了一名木匠。
He becomes a carpenter.
他是个非常不起眼的人。
He's a very nondescript person.
他个子矮小,性格安静,有过几任女友。
He's short, he's quiet, He has girlfriends.
他有个非婚生的儿子,但并未结婚。
He has a a son, kind of out of wedlock, but he's not married.
他不爱阅读。
He's not a reader.
他不读书。
He doesn't read books.
他甚至不怎么读报纸,所以对时事一无所知。
He doesn't even really read the newspapers, so he doesn't know what's going on.
在这方面,他完全是个普通人。
And in that respect, he's completely normal.
尽管某种程度上
Although there are kind of
收音机无处不在,不是吗?
radios everywhere, aren't there?
我是说,德国收音机数量比任何地方都多,即使没有收音机的人也能听到咖啡馆之类地方传来的广播声。
I mean, this is the thing that that there are there are more radios in Germany than anywhere else, and even those you don't have them have to listen to them kind of blaring out from cafes and things.
所以他至少应该知道些新闻头条吧。
So presumably, he is familiar with at least the headlines, I guess.
是啊。
Yeah.
当然。
Of course.
他现在对新闻头条很熟悉了。
He's familiar with the headlines now.
当然,他几乎是不由自主地被卷入政治,就像所有人一样。
And, course, he's drawn into politics almost despite himself as everybody is.
所以他加入了木工工会。
So he belongs to the woodworkers union.
由于属于工会,他在二十年代末和三十年代初投票支持共产党,因为他认为共产党能为工人争取更好的待遇。
Because he belongs to the union, he'd voted for the communists in the late twenties and early thirties because he thought they would get workers a better deal.
他甚至加入了他们的准军事组织'红色前线战士',但从不出席会议。
And he'd actually joined their kind of paramilitary group, the Red Front fighters, but he never turned up to meetings.
这真的不是他的风格。
It's just not really his thing.
他对纳粹毫无好感。
He doesn't care for the Nazis.
在第三帝国时期,他从未参与过任何选举和全民公投。
He never voted in elections and referendums under the Third Reich.
他的理由其实并非出于意识形态。
And his reason was not ideological, really.
而是他认为纳粹并非为工人阶级谋利。
It was that he didn't think they were for the working man.
他不认为纳粹给劳动人民带来了好待遇。
He didn't think they got working people a good deal.
他说,我们的工资不高,诸如此类的事情。
He said, you know, our pay is not very good, all of this kind of thing.
而年轻的格奥尔格·埃尔萨虽未参加过一战,当他意识到二战即将来临时,变得极度忧虑和恐慌。
And Georg Elsa, who's too young to have fought in the first world war, when he thinks that a second world war is coming, he becomes very anxious about it and very alarmed.
对他而言关键的转折点是1938年末希特勒对捷克斯洛伐克发难时。
So the key thing for him is late nineteen thirty eight when Hitler turns on Czechoslovakia.
格奥尔格·埃尔萨确信希特勒会将德国拖入战争,像他这样的贫穷工人阶级将为此付出代价。
And Georg Elsa becomes convinced that Hitler's gonna drag us into a war, and poor working class Germans like me will pay the price for this.
这正是他与众不同的地方。
This is where he becomes unusual.
他决定,阻止这一切的唯一办法就是除掉希特勒和纳粹高层。
He decides, well, the only way to stop this is to get rid of Hitler and the Nazi top brass.
我需要消灭这些领导人。
I need to eliminate the leadership.
他是完全独自行动吗?
And is he doing this entirely on his own?
完全独自行动。
Entirely on his own.
这就是疯狂之处。
This is the mad thing.
他只是个木匠。
So he's just a carpenter.
对吧?
Right?
他是个无名小卒。
He's a nobody.
他只是说,显然,没人会做这件事,所以我来做。
He just says, well, clearly, nobody else is gonna do this, so I'm gonna do it.
他是个敢于尝试的英雄。
He's a have go hero.
他是个敢于尝试的英雄。
He's a have a go hero.
他了解到每年11月8日,纳粹都会在慕尼黑的伯格布劳凯勒啤酒馆集会,举行他们的周年纪念庆祝活动。
And he reads that every November 8, you know, the Nazis always meet in the Burgebreucheller, this beer hall in Munich, and they have their little anniversary celebration.
于是在1938年11月8日,格奥尔格前往慕尼黑,在外面等候。
And so on the 11/08/1938, Georg goes off to Munich, and he he waits outside.
他就站在外面的那条街上。
He just stands in that street outside.
他一直等到所有人都离开——希特勒、戈林等人。
He waits till everybody's gone, Hitler, Goring, whoever else.
人群散去后,他溜进啤酒馆查看,意识到两件事。
And the crowd is gone, and then he goes inside the beer hoarder, sort of sneaks in to have a look around, and he realizes two things.
第一,安保措施极其糟糕。
Number one, the security is abject.
安保非常差劲,因为纳粹坚持要自己负责安保工作。
Security is terrible because the Nazis insist on doing the security themselves.
他们不让警察插手,而纳粹分子又毫无用处,完全无能。
They don't let the police do it, and the Nazis are useless, completely incompetent.
第二,他能看到希特勒演讲的位置,正后方就有一根柱子。
Number two, he can see where Hitler was speaking, and there's a pillar right behind it.
他想,如果能把炸弹装在那根柱子里,就能炸死希特勒和他的整个随行团队。
And he thinks, well, if I could get a bomb in that pillar, I'd kill Hitler, and I'd kill all his entourage.
碰巧的是,和当时许多德国人一样,格奥尔格基本被调去军工厂工作了。
Now as luck would have it, like so many Germans at this point, Georg has basically been reassigned to work in an armaments factory.
哦,对。
Oh, right.
所以那里有很多定时器和炸药。
So there were lots of timers and explosives.
没错。
Exactly.
于是那个冬天,他偷了大量工作用的引信和雷管,就塞在口袋里带出来。
So over that winter, he steals loads of fuses and detonators for work, kind of just shoves them in his pocket and works out with them.
到了第二年春天,也就是1939年4月,他回到啤酒馆。
And the following spring, so April 1939, he comes back to the beer hall.
他等到深夜其他人都离开后,开始拍照测量。
He kinda waits till everyone else is gone late at night, and then he takes photos.
他仔细丈量了尺寸。
He he measures it up.
要知道他是个木匠,所以很清楚自己在做什么。
You know, he's a carpenter, so he knows what he's doing.
他精确计算出了所需炸弹的尺寸。
He works out exactly how big the bomb would have to be.
他从采石场偷了些炸药,开始在父母的后院做试验。
He steals some dynamite from a quarry, and he starts doing tests in his parents' back garden.
天啊。
God.
所以,我是说,如果你的儿子开始这么做,你可能会感到不安,但显然他们没有。
So, I mean, if your if your son started doing that, you might be perturbed, but, no, clearly not.
令人印象深刻的超前规划。
Impressive forward planning.
对吧?
Right?
坦白说,他是整个系列中最令人印象深刻的人物,而这个系列里还有丘吉尔。
He's the most impressive person in this whole series, frankly, and this series has got Churchill in it.
他非常细致,而且真正在玩长线游戏。
So he he is so meticulous, and he really plays the long game.
别忘了,他这个想法差不多一年前就有了。
And don't forget, he came up with this idea now almost a year ago.
是啊。
Yeah.
我是说,真的在下大棋。
I mean, really playing the long game.
真的在下大棋。
Really playing the long game.
1939年8月,8月5日,他回到慕尼黑。
August 1939, the August 5, he comes back to Munich.
他租了间公寓,每晚都去啤酒馆吃晚餐,喝一品脱德国麦芽酒。
He rents a flat, and he starts going to the beer hall every night to have his dinner and to have, like, a a pint of German ale.
非常狡猾。
Very cunning.
每晚他都溜进储藏室躲着,等到所有人都离开,员工也都下班回家。
And every night, he gets into a storeroom, and he hides in the storeroom, and he waits till everybody else has gone and the staff have all gone home.
等四下无人时,他才从储藏室出来。
Then when the coast is clear, he comes out the storeroom.
他走向那根柱子。
He goes up to the pillar.
他挖出这个洞,而且非常细致。
He carves out this hole, and he's so meticulous.
基本上,他在柱子的木质包层里做了一个只有他知道如何打开的暗门,看起来和其他包层完全一样。
So, basically, he builds a secret door in the wooden cladding of the pillar that only he knows how to open that looks just like the rest of the cladding.
然后在柱子内部挖出一个带有特殊密室的壁龛。
Then in behind that, he hollows out a sort of a niche in the brickwork of the pillar with a special chamber.
他用锡衬里这个密室,这样敲击时不会发出空洞的声音。
He lines this chamber with tin so that if you knock on it, it won't sound hollow.
这花了他三十 nights。
So that that takes him thirty nights.
三十个夜晚,他都在那里吃香肠等食物,等待 for everyone to leave home, and doing this.
Thirty nights he's going in there having his sausages and stuff, waiting till everyone's gone home, and doing this.
并且成为啤酒馆里的熟面孔。
And becoming a familiar face in the hall.
当然。
Of course.
一位深受喜爱的常客。
A much loved regular.
然后在11月1日当晚,他将炸药放了进去。
And then on the night of the November 1, he puts the explosives in.
三天后,啤酒厅有一场舞会。
Three nights later, there's a dance in the beer hall.
他买了张舞会门票。
He buys a ticket to the dance.
估计他压根没跳舞。
Presumably, doesn't do any dancing.
他一直等到凌晨1点。
He waits until 01:00.
等所有人都回家了,那晚他装上了定时器和引爆装置。
Everyone's gone home, and that's the night that he puts in the timer and the detonator.
现在东西就位了。
So now it's there.
一切准备就绪。
It's ready to go.
与他精心筹备的缜密程度同样令人震惊的,是纳粹安保的无能。
What is almost as striking as the kind of meticulousness of his preparations is the kind of incompetence of Nazi security.
我是说,你会以为如果希特勒要来,他们会四处检查这类东西。
I mean, you would think that they would go around checking for things like this if Hitler's coming.
我不知道。
I don't know.
因为...因为我刚才正好在想关于躲在储藏室这整件事。
Because because I was thinking precisely this about the whole business of hiding in the storeroom.
我差点就心动了。
I was almost tempted.
我是说,在我的部分研究中尝试躲在餐厅储藏室之类的地方会是很疯狂的事。
I mean, it'd be a mad thing for me to do in parts of my research to try hiding in the storeroom of a restaurant or something.
然后看看...看看我能否成功,能否躲进储藏室再出来。
And to see if see how whether I could pull it off, whether I could hide in the storeroom, come out.
新闻标题会自己写出来。
The headlines would write themselves.
出来试着,比如,放个炸弹在,我不知道,河边咖啡馆之类的地方。
Come out and try to, like, put a bomb in, I don't know, the river cafe or something.
我觉得我做不到。
I don't think I could do it.
呃,我手很笨。
Well, I'm rubbish at crafts.
所以我肯定能做好的,
So I undoubtedly can do Well,
还有,我是说,你不会想在自家花园里试验炸药吧?
also, I mean, you wouldn't want to experiment with explosives in your garden, would you?
不,我不会。
No, I wouldn't.
我绝对会。
I definitely would.
是啊。
Yeah.
但这一切都是为了让他准备工作显得更加引人注目。
But this is all by way of making his preparations all the more striking.
对啊。
Yeah.
我想另一个问题是人们不会主动上前跟他说:'哦,我是历史余韵俱乐部的成员'。
I guess the other thing is people aren't gonna come up to him and say, oh, I'm a member of the rest is history club.
在餐厅见到您真是太棒了。
How wonderful to see you in the restaurant.
没错。
Yeah.
这倒是真的。
That's true.
你拿着那凝胶点火器要干什么?
What are you doing with that with that gel ignite?
你过去三周都来这里。
You've come here for the last three weeks.
你的人生非常离奇且充满意外。
You've had a very strange and unexpected life.
总之,11月7日那天,他最后一次造访啤酒馆。
Anyway, November 7, he visits the beer hall one last time.
他喝了杯啤酒之类的。
He has his pint and whatnot.
他一直等到打烊后。
He waits until after closing.
然后他检查了枕头。
Then he checks the pillow.
他把耳朵贴在枕头上,刚好能听到时钟的滴答声。
He puts his ear to the pillow, and he can just hear the clock ticking.
他说了句:太妙了。
And he says, brilliant.
他们明天就来。
They're coming tomorrow.
是的。
Yeah.
明天就是行动日。
Tomorrow's the day.
于是他设定了计时器。
So he set the timer.
它将在8号晚上9点20分引爆。
It will go off at 09:20 in the evening of the eighth.
这样爆炸时间大概会赶上希特勒演讲开始后一小时左右。
So that will be just over an hour probably into Hitler's speech.
所有党内忠实成员、高层人物都会在场。
All the party faithful, the bigwigs will be there.
一切准备就绪。
Everything is prepared.
事实正是如此。
And so it is.
在八号,炸弹即将爆炸的那天,乔治心满意足地离开了慕尼黑,前往康斯坦茨湖。
On the eighth, the day that it's gonna go off, Georg, very contented, leaves Munich, and he's heading for Lake Constance.
在那里,他将越过边境进入瑞士。
And there, he's going to cross the border into Switzerland.
当他越过边境时,他确信希特勒已经死了。
And by the time he crosses the border, he is confident that Hitler will be dead.
与此同时,希特勒正前往慕尼黑参加这次会议。
Meanwhile, Hitler is on his way to Munich for this meeting.
现在他八点就抵达了啤酒馆,而非原计划的八点半。
Now he arrives at the beer hall at eight rather than 08:30, which was originally planned.
这完全是因为与将军们就西线进攻问题发生的激烈争执。
Now the reason for this is precisely because of all the mad arguments with the generals about the attack in the West.
就在前一天,11月7日,他因恶劣天气推迟了行动。
So just the day before, the November 7, that was the day that he had postponed the operation because of the bad weather.
他们明天九号还要为此再开一次会。
And they're gonna have another meeting about it on the ninth, tomorrow.
因为有很多要讨论的事情。
Because there's loads to discuss.
是啊。
This yeah.
我们什么时候行动?
When are we gonna do it?
你打算怎么部署部队?
What are you gonna do with the troops?
吧啦吧啦吧啦。
Blah blah blah blah.
所以希特勒当时就想,哦,我得走了。
And so Hitler was like, oh, I've gotta go.
这就像你在谈论你的日程安排一样,汤姆。
I've got that basically, it's like you talking about your diary, Tom.
所以我一年前就答应做这件事了。
So I agreed to do this a year ago.
这个承诺一直在我眼前晃悠。
This commitment has been staring at me all this time.
我很想推掉,但我做不到。
I'd love to get out of it, but I can't.
我必须去慕尼黑,把事情搞定,然后坐火车回来,准备下一期《余下皆历史》的节目。
I have to go to Munich, and I get it done and dusted, back on the train, and prepare the next episode of The Rest is History.
这么说来,希特勒跟我很像。
So in that way, Hitler is like me.
确实如此。
Exactly.
非常相似。
Very similar.
于是他就出现在了啤酒馆。
So turns up to the beer hall.
现场有3000人,这些所谓的‘老战士’。
There's 3,000 people there, these so called old fighters.
八点十分,希特勒站起来,开始发表这番针对英国的长篇激烈抨击,我很遗憾地说。
And at ten past eight, Hitler gets up, and he starts delivering this massive rant, I'm sorry to say, against Britain.
所以希特勒表现得很糟糕。
So very poor from Hitler.
但关键在于。
But here's the thing.
通常你会预期希特勒对丘吉尔先生之类的人咆哮两小时。
Now normally, you'd expect Hitler to be ranting about mister Churchill and whatnot for two hours.
然而并没有。
No.
按他的标准,这次演讲相当简短。
It's quite a short speech by his standards.
于是他在9点07分达到了高潮,完成了他的结束语。
So he gets to his climax, his peroration at 09:07.
时钟将在9点20分响起。
And the clock is due to go off at 09:20.
他结束了演讲。
He finishes the speech.
现场爆发出如潮的掌声。
There is a torrent of applause.
每个人都听得非常尽兴。
Everybody has very much enjoyed it.
通常他会留在会场半小时,与老战友们握手寒暄,但这次他想在就寝前赶回柏林。
Now, normally, he would stay in the room for half an hour working the room and shaking the hands of his old comrades, but he wants to be back in Berlin by bedtime.
于是他立即离开了大厅。
So he leaves the hall immediately.
他在随从护送下匆匆离场,赶乘专列。
He's rushes out of the hall, whisked away by his entourage to catch his special train.
那些老战士们感到非常失望。
And the old fighters are very disappointed.
他们本期待着能与这位狂人握手,现在却开始陆续离场,工作人员进场开始清理会场。
They were looking forward to shaking the hand of the furor, and they begin to make their way out of the hall, and the staff come in to start clearing up.
与此同时,希特勒已经登上了列车。
And meanwhile, Hitler has got onto it.
他赶上了那趟载他返回柏林的专列。
He's made the train, his special train taking him back to Berlin.
此刻他正在车厢里。
And he's on the train.
列车正轰隆驶过乡间。
They're rattling through the countryside.
他实际上正与戈培尔同坐,两人激烈地抱怨着天主教会。
He's he's actually sitting with Goebbels, they're having a massive bitch about the Catholic church.
突然,列车在纽伦堡意外停了下来。
And then in Nuremberg, the train is stopped unexpectedly.
希特勒疑惑不解:发生什么事了?
And Hitler's like, what's going on?
一群军官登上火车,告诉他们啤酒馆发生了爆炸。
And a load of officers get on the train, and they say, there's been an explosion at the beer hall.
就在你们离开后不久,一枚炸弹爆炸了。
A bomber's gone off just after you left.
起初希特勒以为这是个玩笑,天知道纳粹高层会开什么样的玩笑。
And at first hit the things is a joke or I mean, God knows what kind of jokes they're telling and kind of Nazi high command.
但他以为这只是个有趣的玩笑话,或是某种恶作剧。
But he thinks this is great banter or it's a hoax of some kind.
随后传来更多消息。
And then more news comes.
在他离开13分钟后,也就是9点20分,炸弹爆炸了。
Thirteen minutes after he left at 09:20, the bomb went off.
爆炸完全按照埃尔泽的计划进行。
It went just as gay or girls had planned.
上层看台坍塌,屋顶也倒塌了。
The upper gallery collapsed, the roof collapsed.
但那时,现场的人正在撤离。
But by that point, the place was emptying.
因此当场只有三人丧生。
So three people only were killed at once.
随后几小时内,另有五人因伤势过重死亡,六十多人受伤。
Five more people will die of their injuries in the next few hours, and more than sixty have been injured.
但死者中没有埃尔莎想要除掉的那些纳粹高层人物。
But none of them are the Nazi big names that Elsa wanted to get.
除一人外,其余死者均为纳粹党员。
And all but one of those who died are members of the Nazi party.
是的。
Yeah.
没错。
Exactly.
我想他们可能是啤酒馆的工作人员?
I think they're the person, a member of staff of the beer hall, maybe?
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