637. 伊朗革命：阿亚图拉的崛起（下）

没错。

Exactly.

因此，霍梅尼发出这条信息，他说，就是在这个月。

And so, Khomeini sends this message, and he says, this is the month.

就是这个月，我们将在历史上闻名，届时自由战士们将紧握拳头并取得胜利。

This is the month that we're famous throughout history when the freedom fighters will clench their fists and win.

你知道，就是人们应该献出鲜血的时候。

You know, when people should sacrifice their blood.

他说，如果必须杀死五千人、一万人、两万人，那就不惜一切代价推翻沙阿。

He says, if you have to kill 5,000 people, 10,000 people, 20,000 people, do whatever it takes to bring down the shark.

这种言辞是革命性的，但也带有末日色彩。

And this rhetoric is revolutionary, but it's also apocalyptic.

鲜血与牺牲的语言深深植根于什叶派思想之中。

The language of blood and sacrifice is hardwired into Shiite thinking.

这引起了巨大的共鸣。

And it strikes a massive chord.

因为在接下来的九天里，头九天的哀悼期间，成千上万的人穿着白色丧服走上街头。

Because for the next nine days, for the first nine days of mourning, there are thousands of people dressed in white mourning shrouds out on the streets.

我的意思是，西方记者看到这一幕，说他们就像一支亡灵大军之类的。

I mean, Western reporters watching this said they were like an army of the dead or something.

这是一幅非凡的景象。

It was an extraordinary scene.

所有这些身穿白衣的人高呼反对沙阿的口号。

All of these people dressed in white chanting against the Shah.

每天晚上，人们都与沙阿的士兵发生冲突。

There are nightly confrontations with the Shah's soldiers every evening.

街道上出现了坦克和装甲车。

There are tanks and armored cars in the streets.

我的意思是，汤姆，你谈到末日了。

I mean, you talk about apocalypse, Tom.

1978年12月，伊朗街头弥漫着强烈的末日恐惧。

There's a massive sense of apocalyptic dread in December 1978 on the streets of Iran.

就如霍梅尼所预见的那样，高潮出现在阿舒拉节，也就是12月11日夜间，这一天恰好是六月卡巴拉战役的周年纪念日。

And then just as the Ayatollah had foreseen, the climax comes on Ashura, so the night of the tenth into the December 11, which is your anniversary of the battle of Kabbalah in June.

基本上，沙阿的军队封锁了城市的仪式核心区——宫殿、部长办公室和大使馆，而将城市的其他部分任由人群掌控。

And basically what happens is the Shah's army seals off the kind of ceremonial core of the city, the palaces, the ministers, the embassies, and they abandon the rest of the city to the crowds.

据一些估计，有上百万人走上街头，高呼‘沙阿去死’、‘美国去死’之类的口号。

And there are some estimates that there are a million people in the streets chanting Magh bah shah, Magh bah America, death to the shah, death to America, and all this kind of thing.

他们高呼‘美国去死’，这一点说明他们认为美国人就是沙阿的化身。

Now, fact that they're chanting death to America tells you that they think the Americans are the shahs.

他们是西方化和世俗化的象征。

They're they're the they're the embodiment of westernization and secularism.

他们是幕后操纵者。

They're the puppet masters.

但讽刺的是，如果他们真是幕后操纵者，那也是无能的操纵者。

But the irony is if they are puppet masters, they are useless puppet masters.

因为他们根本无法就该做什么达成一致。

It's because they can't agree what to do.

我们上一期结束时，大使威廉·沙利文站在美国大使馆里，心想：这简直是一场噩梦。

And we ended the last episode with ambassador William Sullivan standing there in the US embassy and thinking, this is a flipping nightmare.

一切都分崩离析了。

It's all going to pieces.

我们得换马了。

We're gonna have to change horses.

我们应该弄清楚阿亚图拉想要什么。

We should find out what the Ayatollah wants.

他不喜欢共产主义。

He doesn't like communism.

我们也不喜欢共产主义。

We don't like communism.

我们可以做个交易。

We can do a deal.

对。

Right.

我们之间有些共同立场。

There's some middle ground.

让我们与伊斯兰教神职人员建立桥梁。

Let us build bridges with the Islamic clerics.

我们对霍梅尼一无所知。

We don't know anything about Khomeini.

得了吧。

Come on.

时间窗口正在关闭。

The the window of time is closing.

我们得把这事解决。

Let's sort this out.

这在华盛顿引起了极其糟糕的反响，尤其是对鹰派国家安全顾问兹比格涅夫·布热津斯基而言。

This goes down incredibly badly in Washington, especially with the hawkish national security adviser, Zabigniew Brzezinski.

布热津斯基对卡特说，你在德黑兰的那位伙计完全疯了。

Brzezinski says to Carter, your bloke in Tehran has totally lost his marbles.

但沙阿是我们的人。

But the Shah is our man.

我们应该坚持支持沙阿，让沙阿派军队上街清场，别再犹豫不决了。

We should stick with the Shah, get the Shah to send in the troops, clear the streets, let's stop messing around.

他们在12月10日于椭圆办公室发生了激烈对峙。

They have a showdown in the Oval Office on the December 10.

西摩斯·万斯，那位典型的贵族式寄宿学校出身的人，说：我认为我们其实应该听听沙利文的意见。

Cyrus Vance, the patrician kind of boarding school guy, he says, I think we should actually listen to Sullivan.

他清楚自己在说什么。

He knows what he's talking about.

他可是国务院派来的自己人。

He's, you know, be my man from the state department.

布热津斯基说：你疯了吗？

Przyzinski says, are you mad?

你居然要和一个疯狂的中世纪狂热分子联手，对付我们自己的亲密盟友。

You'd plot with some mad medieval fanatic against our own close ally.

我忘了把这个写进笔记里。

I forgot to put this in the notes.

这是一个精彩的故事。

It's an amazing story.

布热津斯基从兰蒙特那里获得了采访内容，翻译后交给了卡特。

Brzezinski got an interview from Lamont, translated, and gave it to Carter.

卡特读了之后，回传时在页边写了一个词。

And Carter read it, and he sent it back with one word written in the margin.

疯了。

Nutty.

他觉得这根本不是花生外交。

He was this wasn't peanut diplomacy.

真是错失良机。

Such a missed opportunity.

这是他对霍梅尼的精神病学诊断。

This was his psychiatric diagnosis of the Ayatollah.

于是卡特说，阿亚图拉显然是个疯子。

And so Carter said, you is the Ayatollah is obviously a madman.

我的意思是，我们不可能跟他做交易。

Like, let's we can't do a deal with him.

现在，当沙利文听到这个消息时，在德黑兰气疯了，给华盛顿发了一封极其无礼的电报。

Now Sullivan, when he heard the news, went mad in Tehran, and he sent off an incredibly insolent telegram back to Washington.

他说，卡特未能派特使前往巴黎会见霍梅尼，犯下了严重且可能无法挽回的错误。

And he said, Carter has made a gross and perhaps irretrievable mistake by failing to send an emissary to Paris to see Khomeini.

我无法重复，也无法理解其中的逻辑。

I cannot repeat, cannot understand the rationale.

我现在就直说吧。

I'm gonna say it right now.

沙利文大使无疑是对的。

Ambassador Sullivan was undoubtedly right.

我认为吉米·卡特没有派特使去见霍梅尼，这是一个巨大的错误。

I think it is a colossal mistake from Jimmy Carter not to have sent an emissary to see Khomeini.

也许霍梅尼最终还是会掌权，伊朗也仍会成为伊斯兰共和国之类的，但美国人错失了那个机会。

Maybe Khomeini would still have ended up in power, and it would still have the Islamic Republic of Iran or whatever, But the Americans missed a window there.

但如果你不了解伊斯兰教以及作为伊斯兰力量化身的阿亚图拉可能拥有的力量，你就能够理解为什么他会说‘他疯了’。

But if you have no understanding of the potential power that Islam and therefore the Ayatollah as someone who is channeling the power of Islam has, you can understand why he would he would just say, well, he's nutty.

这就是大使的职责所在。

That's what your ambassador's for.

你的大使就在那里，去感受街头的风向，了解正在发生的事情。

Your ambassador is there to get the temperature on the streets, to understand what's going on.

我的意思是，沙利文并不完美，但他能感觉到事情正在失控。

I mean, Sullivan wasn't perfect, but he had a sense things aspiring out of control.

我接受这一点。

I I accept that.

但我只是在为吉米·卡特辩护，他并不知道自己面对的是什么。

But I'm just sticking up for Jimmy Carter here that that he doesn't know what he's dealing with.

好的。

Okay.

他确实完全不了解自己在面对什么。

He definitely doesn't know what he's dealing with.

无论如何，卡特当时就想立刻撤换沙利文。

Anyway, Carter wanted to sack Sullivan straight away.

西勒斯·凡对他说，我们实际上需要保留一位大使，不能在这么关键的时刻撤换我们的大使。

And Cyrus Fan said to him, we actually need to keep an ambassador and we can't be sacking our ambassador at this crucial moment.

无论如何，第二天，沙利文前往宫殿会见国王。

Anyway, the next day, Sullivan goes to the palace to see the Shah.

那是一幕非同寻常的、阴森的场景，宫殿里空无一人。

And it's an extraordinary scene, ghostly scene, the place is deserted.

国王的许多廷臣已经逃往海外。

A lot of the Shah's courtiers have already fled abroad.

他们一直在搬运家具、珠宝和画作等物品。

They've been taking crates of furniture and jewelry and paintings and so on.

他们还在向开曼群岛转账，把所有能拿走的财富都转移走了。

They've been making bank transfers to the Cayman Islands, their all gotten gains, all of this.

但国王和法拉赫皇后仍被困在这座满是镜子的大理石宫殿中。

But the Shah and Empress Farah are still there in this kind of marble prison of the palace, surrounded by mirrors.

这些悲伤的人物在烛光下用餐，电力时断时续。

These sort of sad figures dining by candle lights, the power cuts.

沙利文进去后对国王说：听好了，我们原本有个联系霍梅尼的计划。

Sullivan goes in and he says to the Shah, look, we had a plan to contact Khomeini.

意思是，你可能不喜欢，但我们确实制定了这个计划。

Mean, you might not like it, but we did.

而我们现在已经取消了它。

And we've we've scrapped it.

国王感到震惊，因为他一直奇怪地相信美国人是幕后操纵者。

And the Shah is shocked, because he he has always believed weirdly this thing about the Americans being puppet masters.

他本人也一直深信不疑。

He's believed it too.

他问：什么？

And he said, what?

你们没有任何计划。

You don't have any plan.

沙利文说，我们现在没有任何计划。

Sullivan said, we we don't have any plan now.

我真的很抱歉。

I'm really sorry.

我的意思是，这不就是一个典型的例子吗？

I mean, a classic example, isn't it?

说明阴谋论其实是一种心理安慰。

Of the way in which actually conspiracy theories are a comfort blanket.

它让你觉得有人知道正在发生什么。

It reassures you that somebody knows what's going on.

你的意思是，英国人并没有在背后操纵这一切？

You mean the British aren't masterminding this?

这真是令人失望。

It's a real disappointment.

这完全是无政府状态。

It is total anarchy.

沙阿在回忆录中说，直到此时，他一直以为我们有一个宏伟的计划，旨在拯救他的国家，或许还能挽救他的王朝。

And and Sullivan says in his memoirs, up to this point, the Shah had imagined that we had some grand design that was intended to save his country and perhaps somehow or other his dynasty.

沙阿眼中的迷雾突然消散了。

And it's like the scales fall from the Shah's eyes.

就像对我一样，他突然明白，我们根本没有任何计划，我们的政府行为只是被某种难以理解的冲动所驱使，这是沙阿的说法。

It suddenly became clear to him as it had to me that we had no design whatsoever, and that our government's actions were being guided by some inexplicable whim, says Sullivan.

那天对我们俩来说都是糟糕的一天。

It was a bad day for both of us.

我的意思是，对沙阿来说，那是特别糟糕的一天。

I mean, a particularly bad day for the shah.

因此，事态现在正在迅速发展。

So events are now moving very quickly indeed.

许多美国人已经离开，但仍有大约一万人留在伊朗。

A lot of Americans have already left, but there are still 10,000 or so in Iran.

但在12月23日，伊朗最高级别的石油主管是一位名叫保罗·格里姆的人，他实际上负责管理油田。

But on the December 23, the most senior oil executive in Iran was a guy called Paul Grimm, who actually managed and ran the oil fields.

他遭到武装分子伏击并被枪杀。

He was ambushed and shot by militants.

他是革命中第一位被杀害的外国人，此时石油公司表示：好吧。

He was the first foreigner to be killed in the revolution, and the oil companies at this stage say, okay.

我们准备收摊了。

We're putting the plug.

我们正在撤离人员。

We're getting the people out.

于是他们开始撤离员工的家属。

So they start getting their workers' families out.

到1978年12月，伊朗的油田——这些对世界经济至关重要的油田——几乎完全停产了。

And by the December 1978, the oil fields of Iran, which are so central to the world's economy, have been pretty much completely shut down.

因此，令人难以置信的是，伊朗的城市里开始实行汽油配给制。

So now, insanely, there is petrol rationing in Iran's cities.

伊朗，这个石油丰富的国家，自己的人民却没油可用。

Iran, this oil rich country doesn't is not has no oil for its own people.

在欧洲，油价每天都在上涨。

And in Europe, oil prices are going up daily.

油价已经上涨了大约20%。

They've gone up by about 20%.

这对吉姆·卡拉汉来说可不是什么好消息。

So not good news for Jim Callahan.

可不是什么好消息。

Not good news.

不过，英国的北海油田即将开始产油。

Although Britain is now, of course, about North Sea oil is about to come on stream for for Britain.

因此，奇怪的是，英国是受冲击最小的国家之一。

So oddly, Britain is one country that wasn't massively affected.

哦，那倒是件好事。

Oh, well, that's a positive.

是的。

Yeah.

所以我们是这一切的大赢家。

So we're the big winners in all this.

然后在1978年的最后一天，国王做出了最后一次绝望的努力，试图重新掌握主动权。

And then on the last day of 1978, the Shah makes one final despairing effort to recapture the initiative.

他解雇了他的军政府。

He sacks his military government.

他任命了一位新的首相，名叫巴赫蒂亚尔，是一位温和的自由派异议人士。

He brings in a new prime minister who is a moderate liberal dissident called Shah of Bhaktiar.

要是早几年，他本可以凭借那漂亮的小胡子成为一位受人爱戴的进步派英雄人物。

He's the kind of person who a few years earlier, he'd have been a nice progressive hero with his lovely moustache.

但现在，你知道，他不过是国王的一个亲信，已经被时代抛弃了。

But now, you know, he's just a sort of shah crony, and he's been left behind.

他就是伊朗革命中的克伦斯基。

He's the Kerensky of the Iranian Revolution.

此时，国王已经在想，我可能不得不离开了。

Now, at this point, the shah is already thinking, I'm probably gonna have to get out.

他下次见到沙利文时说，我……我意识到我不得不走了。

The next time he meets Sullivan, he says, I I'm I'm I realize I'm gonna have to go.

沙利文问，你想去哪里？

And Sullivan says, where do you wanna go?

国王说，实际上，一件糟糕的事情。

And the Shah says, a terrible thing, actually.

这是他做过最糟糕的事。

The worst thing he ever did.

他对威廉·沙利文说，我在英国有处房产，但我不想去那儿，因为天气太差了。

He says to William Sullivan, I have a home in England, but I don't want to go there because the weather is so bad.

但是，这对英国来说可是个好消息，不是吗？

But, I mean, that's great news for Britain, isn't it?

因为他如果真的来了，情况会变得非常糟糕，因为

Because it would actually have been terrible for him to come because

你知道吗？

Do you know what?

吉姆·卡勒汉，这位历史上的重要人物，早就说过他不希望他来。

Jim Callahan, great friend of the rest of history, had already said he didn't want the show.

不希望他过来。

Didn't want him to come.

就像乔治五世拒绝尼古拉二世那样。

Like George the fifth, refusing Nicholas the second.

是的。

Yes.

所以沙利文对他说：‘您想来美国吗？’

So Sullivan says to him, would you like to come to The United States?

要我为您安排一份邀请函吗？

Would you like me to organize an invitation for you?

他回答说，国王像个小男孩一样前倾身子，说：‘真的吗？’

And he said, the Shah leant forward like a little boy and said, oh, would you?

所以沙利文回去告诉他：我给你安排好了地方。

So Sullivan reports back to him and says, I've got a place for you.

伟大的出版巨头、前驻英大使沃尔特·安嫩伯格。

Great publishing magnate and former ambassador to Britain, Walter Annenberg.

他在加利福尼亚州棕榈泉有一栋房子，他说你可以住那里。

He's got a house in Palm Springs, California, and he says you can have that.

我去过那里。

I've been to it.

不过，汤姆，你住过那房子吗？

Did you stay in it though, Tom?

我没住过。

I didn't stay in it.

我只是去参加了棕榈泉文学节，我强烈推荐这个活动。

I was but it was the Palm Springs Literary Festival, which I highly commend.

我们还做了一次小小的参观。

We had a little tour.

嗯，这位国王说，我打算先去埃及见见我的朋友萨达特总统，然后再从那里前往加利福尼亚。

Well, the Shah, he says, I'm gonna go to Egypt first to see my mate, President Sadat, and then I'll go from there to California.

沙利文说，一旦他们讨论过此事，一旦国王自己接受了这个安排，他似乎松了一口气，甚至对这个前景感到兴奋。

And Sullivan says, once they discussed this, and once the Shah reconciled himself to it, he seemed relieved, even excited at the prospect.

想想看，如果他最终去了加利福尼亚会发生什么，这很有意思，因为加利福尼亚成了许多伊朗中上层阶级的大避难所，不是吗？

It's interesting to think what would have happened had he ended up in California, because California becomes the great bolt hole, doesn't it, for lots of upper and middle class Iranians.

所以，那里真的会有一位流亡的国王。

So it really would have been a king in exile there.

是的。

Yeah.

于是计划开始实施。

So the plan is put in motion.

1月19日星期五早晨，国王和他的皇后最后一次离开了宫殿。

On the morning of Friday, January 19, the Shah and his empress leave the palace for the last time.

警卫们，那场面真是令人惊叹。

The guards it's an amazing scene.

卫兵们列队站好，泪流满面。

The guards are all lined up, lost them in tears.

他们登上一架直升机，将前往德黑兰机场。

They get on a helicopter that's gonna take them to Tehran Airport.

那天又冷又刮风。

It's a freezing cold and windy day.

当他们从直升机里往外看时，能看到一长串排队等候紧急煤油供应的人群，以及机场外因士兵朝空中开枪以阻止人们插队而排成的长长车龙。

And as they look out to the helicopter, they can see these great lines of people waiting for emergency paraffin supplies, and these huge queues of cars outside petrol stations that are being held in line by troops firing automatic weapons in the air to stop people getting out of line.

他们抵达了机场。

They get to the airport.

机场空无一人，因为罢工已经使其停摆。

It's totally deserted because the strikes have shut it down.

只有一排排伊朗飞机静静地停在那里。

There's just a row of upon row of Iran airplanes standing there idle.

还有一小群政界人士和军官前来送别。

And there's a little group of politicians and officers that have come to say farewell.

有一个人，最后一位总理沙普尔·巴赫蒂亚尔，国王对他说：我把伊朗托付给你和上帝。

There's this guy, the last prime minister, Shapur Bakhtiar, and the shah says to him, I entrust Iran to you and to God.

他僵硬地朝飞机走去，显然在努力忍住泪水。

And he starts walking very stiffly towards the plane, and he's clearly trying to hold back the tears.

与此同时，就在这一刻，消息传到了城里。

Now meanwhile, at exactly this moment, news has reached the city.

国王逃跑了。

The shah is fleeing.

人们彻底疯狂了。

People are going berserk.

他们疯狂地按着汽车喇叭。

They're blaring their kind of car horns.

他们正在推倒雕像。

They're tearing down statues.

他们正在拆除路牌。

They're tearing down street names.

他们正在焚烧肖像。

They are burning portraits.

他们正在做所有这些事情。

They're doing all this kind of thing.

沙阿走到飞机的舷梯前，此时，他的其中一位将军——一张非常著名的照片中的人物——弯下腰去亲吻他的手。

The Shah gets to the plain steps, and at this point, one of his generals, a very famous photograph, bends over to kiss his hand.

这位将军泪如雨下，而沙阿却移开了目光。

The general is crying uncontrollably, and the Shah looks away.

他不敢直视对方，因为从照片中可以看到，他的脸如同一张面具。

He can't look at him because he and his face, you can see in the photo, his face is this mask.

那表情极度痛苦，但他显然在努力忍住泪水。

It's absolutely stricken, but he's clearly trying to hold back the tears himself.

然后他登上飞机，飞机升空，飞向天空。

And then he gets on the plane, and the plane lifts off, and it goes up into the sky.

几分钟后，他就消失了。

And a few moments later, he is gone.

沙阿王朝已经覆灭，

The Shah of Shahs has fallen,

而霍梅尼回归的舞台已经搭好。

and the stage is set for the return of the Ayatollah.

令人兴奋的消息，多米尼克，霍梅尼将在广告后回归。

And the exciting news, Dominic, is that the Ayatollah will be returning after a commercial break.

你好。

Hello.

欢迎回到《历史其余部分》，我们上一次说到1979年1月19日的德黑兰机场。

Welcome back to The Rest is History, and, we left you at Tehran Airport on the 01/19/1979.

沙阿正乘飞机消失在天空中。

The Shah was disappearing on a plane into the sky.

但多米尼克，让我们把故事接回到十六天后，再回到德黑兰机场，因为现在有个人即将抵达。

But, Dominic, let's pick the story up sixteen days later and head back to Tehran Airport because someone someone now is is arriving.

是的。

Yeah.

我们还没走。

We haven't left.

现在是1979年2月1日。

So it's the 02/01/1979.

另一架飞机正在降落，这是一架从巴黎包租的法国航空波音747。

Another plane is coming into land, and this is a chartered Air France seven four seven from Paris.

飞机降落了。

And the plane lands.

它滑行到停稳。

It taxes to a halt.

这次，有一大群人。

This time, there's a huge crowd.

庞大的人群，记者，摄像师，机场工作人员。

Massive crowd, reporters, cameramen, airport staff.

你可以在网上看到这些片段。

You can see the clips online.

门打开了。

The door opens.

一位法国飞行员走下楼梯，左手扶着东西。

A French flight officer comes down the stairs, and he's holding with his left hand.

他支撑着身后一位高瘦、全身黑衣的人物，这正是霍梅尼教长，十五年来首次重返伊朗土地。

He's supporting this tall gaunt figure behind him dressed entirely in black, and this is the Ayatollah Khomeini back on Iranian soil for the first time in fifteen years.

这是二十世纪历史中最经典的场景之一，堪比列宁在芬兰车站，或肯尼迪在柏林墙前的那些标志性时刻。

It is one of the great set pieces in twentieth century history comparable to, you know, Lenin at the Finland station, one of these kind of you know, Kennedy at the Berlin Wall, one of these kind of iconic moments.

但唯一对此无动于衷的人，正是霍梅尼本人。

But the one person who's not moved by it is the Ayatollah.

他完全面无表情。

He is totally impassive.

众所周知，在飞往伊朗的途中，众多记者曾问过他，当时ABC的美国记者彼得·詹宁斯问他：‘此刻你有什么感受？’

And very famously, on the flight on the way over, there were loads of journalists and ABC's American reporter Peter Jennings said to him, what are you feeling at this moment?

他用波斯语回答：‘什么感觉都没有。'

And he said in Farsi, nothing.

我没有任何感觉。

I have no feelings.

而且，你知道，那就是霍梅尼的真实写照。

And, you know, that's the Ayatollah to a tee.

对吧？

Right?

你没有按常理出牌，你知道，你是在挑战西方媒体的预期，保持着这种令人生畏、沉着冷静、泰然自若的姿态。

You're not playing the game, you know, defying the expectations of the Western media, preserving this formidable, imperturbable, unflappability.

你知道，我没有任何感觉。

You know, I feel nothing.

你明白吗？

You know?

这真是一个如此震撼的时刻。

It's such a sort of powerful moment.

总之，他进入了机场大楼。

Anyway, he gets into the airport building.

那里有一千名神职人员。

There are a thousand clerics there.

挂着一幅巨大的横幅。

There's a huge banner.

革命的旗帜在你们手中。

The flag of the revolution is in your hands.

你们是我们的领袖。

You are our leader.

没人知道这意味着什么，但霍梅尼在机场向人群讲话时，立刻透露了一丝线索。

What no one knows is what that means, but there is a hint straight away in the airport building when Khomeini addresses the crowds.

他对他们说，我们的最终胜利将在所有外国人离开这个国家时到来。

And he says to them, our final victory will come when all the foreigners are out of the country.

我祈求上帝砍断所有邪恶外国人及其帮凶的手。

I beg God to cut off the hands of all evil foreigners and all of their helpers.

我的意思是，这真是个绝妙的方式，来回报那个帮他在楼梯上扶他一把的法国人。

I mean, that's that's a delightful way to pay back that French guy who'd helped him down the stairs.

下楼梯？

Down the stairs?

我想他可能会为他破例。

I think he would probably make an exception for him.

这很好。

That's good.

你的意思是，他是认真的吗？

You know, does he mean it?

我的意思是，实际上，正如我们后面会看到的，霍梅尼在德黑兰对外国人并不总是那么敌对。

I mean, actually, as we'll see later on, Khomeini was not always, you know, incredibly unfriendly to foreigners in Tehran.

但某种本土主义，我认为，民族主义始终是他吸引力的关键部分。

But a kind of nativism, I think, was nationalism was always a key part of his appeal.

是的。

Yeah.

这很有趣。

It's interesting.

因为在飞来的途中，有人问他：我们是否应该摧毁波斯波利斯——这座波斯国王的古城？

Because on the flight over, he'd been asked, should we destroy Persepolis, the ancient city of the Persian kings?

他回答说不，因为这是伊朗荣耀的一部分。

And he'd said no, because it's part of the glory of of Iran.

那里有

There's a

伊朗革命和伊斯兰共和国中有一种民族主义，我认为西方观察家有时会忽略这一点。

nationalism to the Iranian Revolution and to the, you know, the Islamic Republic that I think is possibly sometimes overlooked by Western observers.

他们只从伊斯兰主义的角度来看待它，但伊朗民族主义我认为是一个非常重要的元素。

They see it purely in terms of the the Islamism of it, but the Iranian nationalism is, I think, a really important element.

嗯，伊朗伊斯兰教的什叶派特征，在某种程度上使民族主义和伊斯兰主义得以融合和模糊。

Well, the the the Shiite character of of Iranian Islam, in a way, enables the nationalism and the Islamism to to to blend and blur.

没错。

Exactly.

于是他从机场前往市区，目睹了这一令人难以置信的场景。

So then he travels from the airport into the city, this unbelievable scene.

我的意思是，他坐在一辆奔驰面包车里，沿着街道行驶。

I mean, he's in a Mercedes van, and he is traveling along the streets.

街道上挤满了人。

The streets are packed with people.

屋顶上、阳台上、每个窗台边的起重机上，都挂满了人，他们尖叫着、呼喊着。

There are people on the rooftops, on balconies, and hanging from cranes on every ledge, screaming and shouting.

《世界报》估计当时有1000万人到场。

Le Monde estimated that there were 10,000,000 people there.

我的意思是，这怎么可能判断得出来呢？

I mean, how can you possibly tell?

但毫无疑问有数百万，复数形式，还有数百万人在电视上观看。

But there are undoubtedly millions, plural, and millions more watching on TV.

我的意思是，这是伊朗历史上的决定性时刻之一。

I mean, it is one of the defining moments of Iranian history.

当他们最终抵达德黑兰南部这个巨大的墓地——该市最大的墓地时，人群停了下来，他又发表了一场激烈的演讲。

And they stopped when they finally got this huge cemetery in Southern Tehran, the biggest cemetery in the city, and he gave another ferocious speech.

沙阿毁掉了我们的国家，填满了我们的墓地。

The Shah destroyed our country and filled our cemeteries.

他的政府都是罪犯。

His government are criminals.

我将任命我自己的政府。

I shall appoint my own government.

我要扇这个政府一记耳光。

I shall slap this government in the mouth.

很强健。

Robust.

它很稳固。

It's robust.

现在，他在谈论沙阿政府的事情。

Now, he's talking about what the the Shah's government.

霍梅尼回到一个彻底混乱、顶层完全真空的国家。

Khomeini is returning to a country in total and utter chaos with a complete vacuum at the top.

沙阿的最后一位总理巴赫蒂亚尔先生，据说仍在管理国家。

The Shah's last prime minister, mister Bakhtiar, is still supposedly running the country.

现在，巴赫蒂亚尔曾试图在巴黎联系霍梅尼，但霍梅尼完全无视了他。

Now Bakhtiar had tried to contact Khomeini in Paris, and Khomeini had completely ignored him.

霍梅尼说，你们的政府是非法的。

Khomeini had said, your government is illegal.

你们是沙阿任命的。

You're appointed by the Shah.

他是个坏人。

He's a bad man.

你们应该辞职。

You should quit.

我不在乎你们对任何事情的看法。

I don't care what you think about anything.

当霍梅尼宣布要回国时，巴赫蒂亚尔试图通过关闭机场来阻止他。

When Khomeini announced that he was coming back, Bakhtiar tried to stop him by closing the airports.

发生了大规模的示威活动。

There were massive demonstrations.

军队向人群开火。

The troops fired into the crowds.

他们又杀死了几十人，这彻底毁掉了巴赫蒂亚尔的声誉，因为他看起来就像沙阿的傀儡，另一个版本的沙阿。

They killed several dozen more people, and that was Bakhtiar basically Tarnished forever, because he just looks like the Shah's puppet and another version of the Shah.

所以当霍梅尼返回时，他完全掌握了主动权，但没人知道他会做什么。

So now when Khomeini returns, Khomeini has the he absolutely has the initiative, but no one knows what he will do.

说实话，我不认为他自己知道他会做什么，因为他已经有十五年没在伊朗了。

And to be honest, I actually don't think he knows himself what he will do, because he hasn't been in Iran for fifteen years.

但上帝会指引。

But God will guide.

他知道上帝会指引，但上帝希望他做什么呢？

He knows that God will guide, but what will God want him to do?

迈克尔·阿克沃思在他关于革命初期的精彩著作中说，霍梅尼可能认为自己最终会成为一个象征性人物，一个监督政权的守护者，政权中会有不同势力争夺权力，或者他根本不知道。

Michael Axworthy, in his brilliant book on the early days of the revolution says, you know, probably Khomeini thought that he would end up being a kind of figurehead, a guardian for regime in which there would be different elements shocking for power or he just doesn't know.

你怎么可能知道呢？

How can you know?

当然，他的许多同事以及革命初期与他共事的许多人认为，他一开始会现身。

Certainly, a lot of his colleagues and lots of the people that he works with in the first months of the revolution thought, he'll be there at the beginning.

他会成为旗帜人物。

He'll be the standard bearer.

他会是代表人物。

He'll be the face of it.

但随着时间推移，他会逐渐退居幕后。

But over time, he'll fade into the background.

我的意思是，他从未掌握过政治权力。

I mean, he's never had political power.

他从未管理过任何事务。

He's never run anything.

因为什叶派神职人员本来就不掌握权力。

Because that's Shiite clerics don't have power.

这简直闻所未闻，根本无法想象。

It's it's unheard of, the very idea of it.

是的。

Yeah.

起初，他在市中心的一所女子学校成立了革命委员会。

At first, he sets up a revolutionary council at a girls school in the city center.

有趣的是，1917年布尔什维克在彼得格勒的斯莫尔尼学院——另一所女子教育机构——也是这么做的。

Now funny enough, this is exactly what the Bolsheviks did in 1917 at the Smolie Institute in Petrograd, another girls educational establishment.

所以，也许这正是应该禁止女子学校的理由，因为它们会成为革命的温床。

So maybe this is an argument for outlawing girls' schools because they become hotbeds of revolution.

我不知道。

I don't know.

他任命了自己的竞争对手担任总理，这个人实际上非常像巴赫蒂亚尔先生。

And he appoints his own rival prime minister, who actually is very like mister Bakhtiyah.

他叫梅赫迪·巴尔扎甘。

He's a man called Mehdi Barzagan.

他留胡子吗？

Does he have a mustache?

是的，他留着。

He does.

他留着胡子，还有一种很特别的、知识分子类型的胡子，有点像啤酒肚那种感觉

He's got a mustache and a kind of little very it's an intellectuals intellectuals mustache mustache and and beer, sort of

山羊胡的组合。

goatee combination.

所以不是那种浓密的大胡子？

So not not a full throated one?

哦，不是的。

Oh, no.

他是个自由派异见者，有点像民主派异见者。

He's another liberal dissident, kind of democratic dissident.

而梅赫迪·巴尔扎甘，你知道的，当他面对摄像机时，他会说，我们会成立一个民选的制宪会议。

And Mehdi Barzagan, you know, when when he goes in front of the cameras, he says, you know, we're gonna have an elected constituent assembly.

我们必须起草一部新宪法。

We'll have to write a new constitution.

我们将举行民主选举，诸如此类。

We'll have democratic elections, all of this.

是的。

Yes.

非常像欧洲式的革命。

Very kind of European revolution.

因为我猜，在

Because I guess, at

这个节点上，那些反对国王政府的世俗主义革命者，无论是中间派的温和人士，还是社会主义者，或是共产主义者，他们都认为自己可以利用这位阿亚图拉。

this point, those secularist revolutionaries against the Shah's government, whether they're the kind of centrist dads or whether they're the socialists or whether they're the communists, they think that they can use the Ayatollah.

我认为他们确实这么想。

I think they do.

我认为他们毫无疑问是这么想的。

I think they undoubtedly do.

骑在鳄鱼背上，很快就会被它吞没。

Riding a crocodile, and very soon will be swallowed up by it.

在这场记者会上，巴尔扎甘先生似乎透露出一些不祥的暗示，因为霍梅尼也在场，他说，这不会是一个普通的政府。

There's a sort of perhaps an ominous hint from mister Barzagan at this press conference, because Khomeini is there, and Khomeini says, this isn't gonna be an ordinary government.

这是一个基于沙里亚法的政府。

It's a government based on the Sharia.

反对这个政府，就是反对伊斯兰教的沙里亚法，是对上帝的叛乱，而叛逆上帝就是亵渎神明。

Opposing this government means opposing the Sharia of Islam, a revolt against God, and revolt against God is blasphemy.

你知道，人们不能说他们没被警告过。

You know, people can't say they weren't warned.

在迈克尔·阿克沃思的书中，他说，这场革命的这两个要素始终存在，不仅在早期如此，实际上贯穿了伊斯兰政权从建立至今的整个历史。

And in Michael Axeworthy's book, he says, these two elements of the revolution are always intention, not just in the early days, but actually throughout the history of the Islamic regime to the present.

一方面，它是伊朗伊斯兰共和国。

On the one hand, it's the Islamic Republic Of Iran.

你知道，这里有一种共和主义的理想主义。

You know, there is a kind of republican idealism.

但另一方面，

But on the

它是伊斯兰的。

other hand, it's the Islamic.

是的。

Yeah.

所以人们确实会投票。

So people do vote.

有一个议会。

There is a parliament.

女性可以投票，而且她们至今仍可以投票。

Women can vote, and they still can vote today.

对吧？

Right?

他们举行选举。

They have elections.

他们为各种职位举行竞选。

They have competitions for for offices.

但与此同时，还存在伊斯兰根基，以及反对它就是亵渎、反对沙里亚法等这类观念。

And yet at the same time, there is the Islamic foundation and the idea that opposing it is blasphemous and opposing Sharia law and all of that kind of thing.

我的意思是，其中一个

I mean, one

沙里亚法禁止的事物，你就不能做的绝佳例证。

of the amazing illustrations of the way in which if it's banned by the Sharia, then you can't do it.

比如说，同性恋是被禁止的，但沙里亚法中并没有关于性别变更的规定。

So, say, homosexuality would be banned, but there is nothing in the Sharia about sex changes.

因此，伊朗历史上可能是进行性别变更人数最多的国家。

So Iran, I think, historically, is the country where there's been the largest number of sex changes.

是的。

Yeah.

没错。

That's right.

我知道这确实很奇怪，对吧？

I know it is a really weird thing, isn't it?

现在，霍梅尼的新秩序面临潜在威胁，那就是军队。

Now there is a potential threat to Khomeini's new order, and that is the army.

我的意思是，这始终是个问题。

I mean, always the issue.

对吧？

Right?

在革命中，军队会怎么做？

In revolutions, what's the army going to do?

卡特曾派美国将军海泽尔去鼓励伊朗将领们坚定立场，并策划政变，但他们无法信任自己的部下。

Carter had sent an American general, general Heizer, to encourage the Iranian generals to stand firm and to make plans for a coup, but they couldn't trust their own men.

他们有成千上万的征兵，而这些士兵正是最被霍梅尼主张吸引的年轻工人阶级男性。

They've got thousands of conscripts who are precisely the kind of young working class men who have been attracted to Khomeini's message.

主张。

Message.

这些士兵从2月10日开始逃亡，那时距离霍梅尼返回还不到两周。

These men start deserting on the February 10, so we're just, you know, less than two weeks after Khomeini's return.

霍梅尼的支持者们成群结队地闯入警察局和兵营，寻找武器。

Crowds of Khomeini's supporters invade the police stations and barracks to find weapons.

记得，当时有两位总理。

There are two prime ministers, remember.

一位是留着胡子的巴赫蒂亚尔，另一位是留着胡子和山羊胡的巴尔扎甘。

There's Bakhtiar with his mustache and Barzagan, mustache and goatee beard.

巴赫蒂亚尔命令军队恢复秩序，因此将领们必须决定支持哪一方。

Bakhtiar orders the army to restore order, so now the generals have to decide who to back.

第二天，也就是11日，这一天如今在伊朗被铭记为革命达到顶峰的时刻，军队发表了一份声明。

And on the next day, the eleventh, which is remembered in Iran today as the moment the revolution basically reached its apotheosis, the army issued a statement.

他们说，我们将保持中立。

They said, we're gonna stay neutral.

所有部队必须留在各自的军营里。

All troops must remain in their in their barracks.

对于霍梅尼和他的支持者来说，这是一次巨大的胜利，因为他们现在可以自由接管各个部委、监狱、警察局和电视台等机构。

And for Khomeini and his supporters, this was a massive victory, because they were now free to take over the ministries, the prisons, the police stations, and the TV stations, and so on.

这里有一个有趣的时刻。

And there's an interesting moment here.

在这一天，也就是十一日，混乱中，一群美国军事顾问被群众俘虏，大使沙利文不得不设法将他们救出。

On this day, the eleventh, in the chaos, a group of American military advisers were taken prisoner by the crowd, and basically, ambassador Sullivan had to get them out.

就在这一切发生之际，他接到了白宫的电话，来电的是副国务卿。

And in the middle of all this, he got a call from the White House, and it was the undersecretary of state.

他说：‘我有一条来自国家安全顾问兹比格涅夫·布热津斯基的消息。’

And he said, I've got a message for you from the national security adviser, Zmyknev Brzezinski.

他希望你组织一场针对霍梅尼的军事政变。

He wants you to organize an army coup against Khomeini.

我们意识到，现在必须让军队介入。

We've realized, get the army to intervene now.

沙利文回答说：‘你在开玩笑吗？’

And Sullivan said, are you joking?

军队表示他们将保持中立，而我们的许多顾问都被俘虏了。

Like, the army have said they're gonna stay neutral, A load of our advisers have been captured.

我正在与共产党人谈判，以营救他们。

I'm negotiating with communist men to get them out.

我现在不会策划政变。

I'm not gonna organize a coup now.

副国务卿说，他真的非常希望你专注于这次政变。

And the under secretary of state said, he really really wants you to focus on this coup.

请今天就把这次政变搞定。

Please get this coup done today.

沙利文说：塔比，你得把这事压下去。

And Sullivan said, and Tabby, you'll have to bleed this out.

请告诉布热津斯基滚蛋。

Please tell Brzezinski to off.

副国务卿说：这没什么帮助。

The undersecretary of state said, that's not very helpful.

萨利文说，哦，对不起。

And Sullivan said, oh, I'm sorry.

你需要我为你翻译成波兰语吗？

Would you like me to translate into Polish for you?

然后他重重地挂了电话。

And then he slammed down the phone.

所以，多米尼克，我们已经听了关于伊朗局势的分析，你知道现在那里发生了什么。

So Dominic, we've I mean, we've listened to the rate you know, what's going on in Iran.

随着沙阿的离去，政府崩溃了，霍梅尼的追随者正在掌控权力中枢。

With the Shah's gone, government's collapsed, Khomeini's followers are getting their hands on the levers of power.

但此时在美国，究竟发生了什么？

But what what is going on in America at this point?

正如这表明的那样，美国人根本不清楚发生了什么。

So as this would suggest, the Americans don't really have a clue what's going on.

直到1978年，大多数美国人可能从未想过伊朗。

Until night the 1978, most Americans had probably never ever thought about Iran at all.

第一次登上头版新闻是在国王离开的时候，大多数美国报纸都说：哦，国王离开了伊朗。

The first time it really made front page news is when the Shah left, and most American papers said, oh, the Shah's left Iran.

他无能又腐败。

Well, he was useless and corrupt.

谢天谢地，他终于走了。

Thank God he's gone.

如果非要说的话，他早就该走了。

He should have gone earlier if anything.

但外交政策圈内有些人非常担忧。

But there are people within the kind of foreign policy establishment who are very alarmed.

比如亨利·基辛格，国王的老朋友。

So Henry Kissinger, the Shah's old friend.

基辛格说，那些理想主义者、自由派和人权人士搞垮了国王，这全是他们的错。

Kissinger said, do gooders and liberals and human rights people have undermined the Shah, it's all their fault.

这典型的基辛格风格。

This is classic Kissinger.

然后基辛格继续说，你可以对沙阿的离去和伊朗的新秩序说三道四。

And then Kissinger went on to say, you know, you can say what you like about the Shah going on, new order for Iran.

这对美国、对中东、对国际秩序都将是一场巨大灾难。

This is gonna be a massive disaster for us, for The Middle East, for the international order.

我的意思是，就这一点而言，基辛格说得并不完全错。

I mean, you could say on this latter point, Kissinger's not entirely wrong.

对吧？

Right?

不对。

No.

我的意思是，他一点都没错。

I mean, he's not wrong at all.

其他非常担忧的人是美国企业。

The other people who are very alarmed are US businesses.

上世纪七十年代，一些美国企业曾对伊朗进行了大量投资。

So some American businesses had invested very heavily in Iran in the nineteen seventies.

我给你举个例子，斯塔雷特住房公司。

I'll give you an example, the Starrett Housing Corporation.

也许听起来这家公司没什么意思。

So that might not sound an exciting corporation.

他们建造了帝国大厦，刚刚签下了建造特朗普大厦的合同。

They were the people that had built the Empire State Building, and they have just signed the contract to build Trump Tower.

想象一下德黑兰的特朗普大厦。

Imagine Trump Tower in Tehran.

他们原本要在德黑兰边缘建造一个住宅区，合同价值高达5亿美元，如果革命成功、他们失去合同，将面临巨大损失。

Well, they were gonna build a housing complex on the edge of Tehran, half $1,000,000,000 the contract was worth, and they are now facing if this revolution goes ahead and they lose the contract, they're facing massive losses.

这些公司还包括吉列、百事、高露洁、可口可乐、强生、通用汽车，所有这些公司都在伊朗设有工厂。

The list of companies, Gillette, Pepsi, Colgate, Coke, Johnson and Johnson, General Motors, all of these companies have got factories.

他们在伊朗都有投资。

They've got investments in Iran.

他们会损失大量资金。

They're gonna lose a lot of money.

所以在五十年代，一位阿亚图拉确实曾对百事可乐发布过一项教令，但那是因为它当时由一位巴哈伊实业家所拥有。

So in the fifties, an Ayatollah had issue actually issued a fatwa against Pepsi, But that was because it was owned by a Baha'i industrialist.

这个特许经营权。

The franchise.

当地的特许经营权。

The local franchise.

当地的特许经营权。

The local franchise.

是的。

Yeah.

哇。

Wow.

我认为这并不是因为他特别反对百事可乐本身。

I think not because he was particularly opposed to Pepsi per se.

对。

Yeah.

我认为，在二十世纪八十年代初，对伊朗的百事可乐饮用者来说，将是艰难的岁月。

These these are these are gonna be dark days for Pepsi drinkers in Iran, I think, in the early nineteen eighties.

当然，对美国人来说，更大的问题是石油。

The bigger issue, of course, for Americans is oil.

记住，伊朗是世界第二大石油出口国，但自十二月以来，其石油生产已经停止。

Remember, Iran is the second biggest oil exporter in the world, but its production has been shut down since December.

由于人们非常担心这场革命会蔓延到中东其他产油国，比如科威特，油价一直在飙升。

Prices are surging all the time, because people are very worried that this revolution is going to spread across The Middle East to other oil producing countries, to Kuwait.

西方报纸上刊登文章称，这场革命可能会蔓延到沙特阿拉伯。

People there are articles in Western papers saying it could spread to Saudi Arabia.

你知道，埃及可能是下一个国家。

It you know, Egypt could be the next country.

谁知道呢？

Who knows?

因此，在接下来的几周里，原油每桶的价格从13美元飙升至34美元。

So in the next few weeks, the basic price for a barrel of crude oil went from $13 to $34.

当然，这是经典的情况。

And of course, it's that classic thing.

你只是一个普通的司机。

You're an ordinary driver.

你在报纸上看到汽油价格即将飙升。

You read in your newspaper that petrol prices are gonna be shooting up.

你心想，好吧，我要把车加满油，或者至少不让油箱低于四分之三，因为我可不想花更多钱买汽油。

You think, well, I'm gonna start filling my car or, you know, I'm gonna never let it go below three quarters full because I don't wanna have to pay more for my petrol.

于是加油站排起了长队，需求上升，价格随之上涨，形成了巨大的通胀螺旋。

So you get queues at pumps, the demand rises, the price rises, you get a massive inflationary spiral.

对卡特来说，这在政治上极其致命。

And for Carter, this is politically poisonous.

大多数美国人，说实话，根本不在乎伊朗。

Most Americans, let's be honest, they don't give a damn about Iran.

我的意思是，这可不是越南。

I mean, it's not Vietnam.

这件事年复一年都没有出现在报纸上。

It wasn't in the newspapers year after year.

当卡特在1980年竞选连任时，伊朗话题可能会被提及，但并不是重点。

When Carter runs for reelection in 1980, you know, Iran might come up, but it's not the thing.

如果你是俄亥俄州一位普通的家庭主妇，伊朗根本不会是你首先想到的事情。

If you're, you know, an ordinary housewife in Ohio, Iran isn't the first thing you think about.

不过，你确实很关心通货膨胀。

You do care about inflation, though.

你非常在意通货膨胀。

You massively care about it.

即使在1978年，美国的通货膨胀率就已经达到9%。

Even in 1978, The US inflation rate was 9%.

卡特原本自信能通过利率政策压低通胀，但他没料到会发生伊朗革命。

Now Carter had been confident he'll get that down with interest rates, but he didn't expect an Iranian revolution.

实际上，1979年全年，通货膨胀率并没有下降。

And, actually, what happens as a result through the course of 1979, inflation doesn't come down.

物价上涨了10%、11%，

It goes up 10%, 11%,

到十月时涨到了12%。

12% by October.

没人料到伊朗革命会发生。

No one expects the Iranian revolution.

确实没人料到。

No one does.

如果你翻开1979年的任何一份美国报纸，都会看到人们抱怨物价上涨。

And if you open any new American newspaper from 1979, it's full of people complaining about price rises.

所以约翰·厄普代克写了一本叫《兔子富了》的书，这是他兔子系列小说中的一部，背景设定在1979年。

So John Updike wrote a book called Rabbit is Rich, one of his rabbit novels, set in 1979.

他是在几年后才写成的。

He wrote it a couple of years later.

在他兔子系列小说中的普通人角色哈里·安格斯特姆，总是不停地抱怨通货膨胀。

And his every man character in the rabbit novels, Harry Angstrom, is always whinging about inflation.

我的意思是，在小说中，他把钱投到了南非克鲁格金币上，因为他告诉妻子，这是应对储蓄因通胀而缩水的一种方式。

I mean, puts his money into South African krugerrands in the novel because he tells his wife this is a way to deal with their savings being eroded by inflation.

他现在会是个加密货币交易商。

He'd be a crypto dealer now.

没错。

Exactly.

他确实是。

He would.

我们从2024年卡玛拉·哈里斯输给特朗普的选举中已经看到，物价有多重要。

And we know from 2024 when Kamala Harris lost to Trump, how much prices matter.

你知道，这正是美国选民和所有西方选民真正关心的切身利益问题。

You know, this is the classic bread and butter issue that American voters and all Western voters really care about.

所以，多米尼克，这就是历史给我们的教训。

So, Dominic, this is the lesson from history.

对于那些还疑惑上次选举谁会赢的人，你只要研究一下这个时期，就能明白。

For those, you know, wondering who was gonna win in the last election, you only have to study this period, and you'd have known.

所以吉米·卡特。

So Jimmy Carter.

我们来谈谈吉米·卡特。

Let's get to Jimmy Carter.

人们会记得吉米·卡特。

People will remember Jimmy Carter.

他基本上一半是福音派主日学老师，一半是人文主义政策专家。

He's basically 50% evangelical Sunday school teacher and 50% humanist policy wonk.

你这种类型的人。

Your kind of guy.

是的。

Yeah.

所以，如果你问吉米·卡特他理想的夜晚是什么样，他会穿上羊毛开衫，发表全国电视讲话，公布一项73点能源计划，告诉所有人关掉暖气，穿上毛衣。

So basically, if you Jimmy, if you ask Jimmy Carter for his ideal evening, he's putting on his cardigan, TV address to the nation, unveiling a 73 energy plan, and telling everybody to turn the heating off and put on their hair shirts.

于是他在1979年4月5日就这么做了。

And so that's what he does on the 04/05/1979.

他上电视对美国人民说，你们不得不为汽油支付更多钱。

He goes on TV and he says to the American people, you're gonna have to pay more for your gas.

我希望你们明白，这在美国简直难以置信，想象一下，你根本无法想象21世纪的美国总统会这么做。

I would like you I mean, this is unbelievable in American I mean, imagine this unimag you can't conceive for a twenty first century American president doing this.

他说，我希望你们每周开车的里程比现在减少15英里。

He says, I would like you to drive 15 miles a week fewer than you do now.

至少每周一次，坐公交车或拼车出行。

At least once a week, take the bus, go by carpool.

如果家离工作地点足够近，就走路吧。

If you work close enough to home, walk.

美国总统竟然建议人们坐公交车，这可不是他们过去从约翰·F·肯尼迪或理查德·尼克松那里听到的内容。

The thought of the commander in chief of The United States telling people to get the bus, this is not what they were used to hearing from John f Kennedy or Richard Nixon.

当然，如果你住在美国内陆较寒冷的地区，比如东北部或中西部，那里的人们消耗更多石油，也支付更高的费用。

And, obviously, if you live in a quite a cold part of The United States, so in the Northeast or the Midwest, where people use more oil and they're paying more for it.

他们并不想听这些。

They don't want to hear this.

他们不想

They don't wanna

听他们得支付更多

hear they have to pay

汽油钱。

more for their gas.

这些地区本来就有很多工人阶级的民主党人，对卡特持怀疑态度。

And these bases already have a lot of working class Democrats who are very Carter skeptic.

因此，即使在1979年这个时候，许多自由派民主党人、工会领袖——这些对民主党至关重要的群体——都在问：我们怎么会选了这个南方佬？

So even at this point in the 1979, a lot of liberal Democrats and labor union bosses and things, so crucial to the democratic party, are saying, how the hell did we wind up with this bloke from the South?

这个奇怪的福音派基督徒，居然让我们把暖气调低。

This weird evangelical Christian who's telling us to turn the heating down.

我们应该把他赶下台，换上泰德·肯尼迪。

Like, we should get rid of him, get in Ted Kennedy.

我知道泰德·肯尼迪自己也身败名裂。

I know Ted Kennedy disgraced himself.

是的

Yeah.

他们忘了那个淹死女人的事。

They're forgetting the whole drowning the woman thing.

他们忘了这一点。

They're forgetting that.

如果他能降低汽油价格，这已经不再是不可接受的问题了。

That's not a deal breaker anymore if he's gonna get the petrol prices down.

他们会把肯尼迪弄进来。

They'll get Kennedy in.

实际上，在接下来的几周里，情况变得更糟了。

And, actually, in the next few weeks, things go from bad to worse.

所以到了五月，南加州的加油站外排起了长队。

So by May, there are huge lines outside gas stations in Southern California.

加利福尼亚州实行了配给制。

There was there was rationing in California.

所以，基本上，如果你的汽车注册号或车牌号以偶数结尾，你就可以在偶数日去加油站加油。

So, basically, if you had a if your kind of registration pays, if your license pays of your car ended in an even number, you could go to the gas station on an even numbered day.

这是在州长杰里·布朗任内发生的吗？他的外号叫‘月光’。

Was this under governor Jerry Brown, whose nickname was Moonbeam?

是的。

Yeah.

州长杰里·布朗。

Governor Jerry Brown.

这听起来可能很疯狂，但事实上，其他许多州也效仿了这种在奇数日和偶数日轮流加油的制度。

And that might sound mad, but actually lots of other states copied that that rationing even in odd numbered days.

因为几周之内，纽约和中大西洋各州的加油站就开始缺油了。

Because within weeks, the gas stations are running out of petrol in New York and the Mid Atlantic states.

人们开始开车去其他州加油。

And people start basically driving to other states to get their petrol.

那岂不是会把所有汽油都耗光吗？

Wouldn't that use up all your petrol?