7. 历史的教训

如果你想从节目中获取更多内容，就加入'历史的余韵'俱乐部吧。

If you want more from the show, join the rest is history club.

随着圣诞节的临近，你还可以为你生活中的历史爱好者赠送一整年的会员资格。

And with Christmas coming, you can also gift a whole year of access to the history lover in your life.

只需访问restishistory.com并点击礼物选项。

Just head to the rest ishistory.com and click gifts.

马克·吐温说过：历史从不重复自己，但总会押韵。

History never repeats itself, but it rhymes, said Mark Twain.

既然如此，我们真的能从历史中学习吗？如果能，我们做到了吗？

In which case, can we truly learn from history and if we can do we?

在'历史的余韵'节目中，我们既喜欢深入研究青铜时代的安纳托利亚或1981年的事件，也喜欢探讨那些真正宏大的问题。

Here on the rest is history we like to focus up very close on bronze age Anatolia or the 1981 but we also like to focus on the truly big questions.

而要解答这些宏大问题，我们需要一位学识渊博的历史学家。

And for big questions, we need a big historian with a big brain.

多米尼克·桑德布鲁克，很高兴你回来了。

Dominic Sandbrook, good to have you back.

反正脑袋挺大。

A big head anyway.

听众们，没错。

Listeners, yes.

是的。

Yes.

脑袋大的听众们，你们也可以自由发挥编些笑话。

A big head listeners, you can feel free to write your own jokes in as well.

多米尼克，你这周过得怎么样？

Dominic, how's your week been?

还在为马拉多纳哀悼吗？

In mourning for Maradona?

我知道你是他的忠实粉丝。

I know you're a big fan.

其实我对马拉多纳的离世感到难过。

I am sad about Maradona, actually.

马拉多纳是个了不起的人物，我确实认为他是个伟大的...天啊。

Maradona was a great character, and I do think he was a great oh, gosh.

我们在第一期节目中就展现了伟大，不是吗？

We did greatness, didn't we, in our first episode.

我确实认为他是个伟大的人物，他非常了不起，对吧？

I do think he was a great he's a great figure, isn't he?

他是阿根廷历史上的一位伟大人物。

He's a great figure in Argentine history.

他是足球史上的一位伟大人物。

He's a great figure in footballing history.

就带领球队赢得世界杯而言，他可能是最伟大的足球运动员。

He's probably the greatest footballer in terms of dragging his team to the World Cup.

所以，是的，我确实在悼念马拉多纳。

So, yeah, I am in mourning for Maradona.

伟大的马拉多纳。

Maradona the great.

好的。

Right.

在进入今天的讨论主题之前，我们先来看看听众们对上周播客的评论——那期节目我们回溯到特洛伊时代，探讨了它为何能成为经久不衰的传奇。

Before we get to our topic for discussion today, let's check out some of your comments on last week's podcast in which we traveled back to Troy and discussed what makes it such an enduring legend.

这里有一条来自听众弗格斯·迈克尔约翰的精彩评论。

Brilliant comment here from listener Fergus Michaeljohn.

我们喜欢赫克托耳不就是因为他是真正的英雄吗？不像阿喀琉斯那样有神明庇护。

Don't we all like Hector because he's a real hero not divinely protected like Achilles?

没错，阿喀琉斯就是个作弊者。

Yeah so Achilles is a cheat.

他不会把时间浪费在营帐里生闷气，而是为族人而战。

He doesn't spend his time sulking in his tent, he fights for his people.

我们成不了阿喀琉斯，但可以努力成为赫克托耳那样的人。

We can't be Achilles but we could aspire to be Hector.

我完全赞同这个观点。

I'd agree with that.

我认为赫克托耳在《伊利亚特》中表现得很好，不是吗？

I think that Hector behaves very well in the Iliad, doesn't he?

我的意思是，他是个高尚的英雄，与妻儿告别后，就出去为自己的国家或城市尽一份力。

I mean, he's a noble hero who says goodbye to his wife and child, and he goes out to do his bit for his country as it were, or his city.

不像阿喀琉斯那样整天抱怨女奴、哭哭啼啼，表现得像个扫兴鬼。

There's not all this kind of moaning and groaning about slave girls and crying and just sort of being a bit of a wet blanket like Achilles.

你不同意吗？

Do you not agree?

不。

No.

我认为阿喀琉斯之所以如此糟糕，恰恰使他成为如此杰出的英雄。

I think I think the fact that Achilles is appalling is precisely what makes him such a brilliant hero, actually.

我觉得他伟大到不需要被普通标准所束缚。

I think he he's so great that he doesn't have to be held to normal standards.

是啊，这太糟糕了。

Yeah that's terrible.

是啊，我能理解你为什么喜欢约翰·列侬。

This is for yeah I can see why you like John Lennon.

没错，米哈伊尔·塔瓦里迪斯说过，这是关于一个伟大主题的精彩剧集。

Right, Mikhail Tavaridis he said a great episode about a great topic.

我认为《伊利亚特》是开启对神话和历史进一步兴趣的最佳书籍，不仅限于希腊文化，至少对我来说是这样。

I think the Iliad is the best book for opening the gates to further interest in mythology and history not only of the Greek variety at least it was for me.

《伊利亚特》对你来说是个很好的启蒙读物吗，汤姆？

Was the Iliad a great gateway for you Tom?

是的，我认为希腊传说整体上，那些英雄故事之类的。

Yeah I think the Greek legends generally, the heroes and things.

我想我最开始是喜欢珀尔修斯和赫拉克勒斯，后来才接触到特洛伊战争，但它确实是入门级读物，毫无疑问。

I think I was kind of a Perseus and Heracles man first before I got onto the Trojan war but yeah it's the gateway drug, no question about it.

还有CBBMF（希望我没拼错这些首字母）。

And CBBMF I hope I've got those initials right.

他反驳说很喜欢这期节目，奇怪的是《特洛伊》电影制作人没意识到阿喀琉斯对现代世界来说并非英雄——所以他是在赞同你的观点，多米尼克。

He contradicts to say loved the episode strange how the filmmakers of Troy failed to realize Achilles isn't a hero to the modern world so he's agreeing with you Dominic.

严肃、任性、追求荣耀，所有人都支持赫克托耳，因为他展现了你提到的基督教美德。

Solemn, capricious, glory seeker, everyone rooting for Hector because he comes out with the Christian virtues you mentioned.

那就是我。

That's me.

太棒了。

So good.

他同意我们俩的观点。

He's agreeing with both of us.

这正是我们喜欢的回应。

That's the kind of response we like.

我们收到Peppine Lucker的留言说：'不是一个而是两个杜兰杜兰的引用。

And we've got a Peppine Lucker who said: 'Not one but two Duran Duran references.

太棒了。'

Excellent.'

没错，那些引用就像流经干旱之地的蜿蜒河流。

Yes, those references were like a river twisting across a dusty land.

哦汤姆，让我把你拉回地球来。

Oh Tom, let me bring you back to planet Earth.

我们必须停止这样。

We've got to stop this.

我们必须取消这个。

We've got to cancel this.

那么今早我们正在经历自己的存在主义危机，这不是关于杜兰杜兰的引用，而是关于那个大问题：历史重要吗？

Right then, we're having our very own existential crisis this morning and it's not about Duran Duran references, it's about the big one: does history matter?

我们能从中学习吗？

Do we learn from it?

我们有可能从中学习吗？

Can we learn from it?

多米尼克，我要你在本期播客结束前就这个话题写一千字。

Dominic, I want a thousand words on the subject by the end of this podcast.

15分大题。

15 mark question.

实际上现在我打算给你30分，因为这是个非常难的问题。

Actually now I'm going to give you 30 marks because it is a very difficult one.

哦，你真好，谢谢。

Oh that's kind, thank you.

这重要吗？

Does it matter?

我们能从中学习吗？

Do we learn from it?

我们能从中学到东西吗？嗯，能学到一些，但不会让我们变得更好。

Can we learn from Well, learn something, but it doesn't make us better.

而且我认为它不会提供整齐的道德教训。

And it doesn't furnish neat moralistic lessons, I think.

历史中蕴含教训的观点，可以追溯到希腊人和罗马人时代，不是吗？

Now the idea that there's lessons in history, I mean that goes back to the Greeks and the Romans, doesn't it?

所以你会想到普鲁塔克的《名人传》。

So you think about plutonous lives.

拜托。

Come on.

我们甚至还没谈到基督教呢，顺便说一句。

We haven't even we're not gonna get into Christianity yet, by the way.

至少把这个话题留到下半场再说吧。

Let's shelve that until the second half at least.

或许可以把基督教内容留到加长版里，通过暗网链接发给你个人粉丝看。

If maybe save Christianity for the extended edition, which you can send to your personal followers on some sort of dark web link.

但历史能提供现成的教训吗？

But are there neat lessons?

不，没有。

No, there aren't.

人们总是得出他们想得出的结论，不是吗？

People draw the lessons I think they want to draw, don't they?

我是说，没人会从历史中学到他们原本就不想接受的教训。

I mean, I don't think there are nobody ever draws a lesson from history they didn't want to draw in the first place.

我认为历史是一团混乱的事物，人们将自己的观点强加于它，并从中寻找他们本来就想做的事情的历史依据。

I think there's a confused mass of stuff and people impose their own patents on it and they tease out they seek justification in history for what they wanted to do anyway.

这是我的简短回答。

That's my short answer.

所以当你说'混乱的一团'时，我想到了图尔的格里高利在其六世纪末所著的《法兰克人史》开篇那段著名的话——这就是我们从历史中学到的教训。

So when you say when you say confused mass, I think that the lesson we learn from history is the one that Gregory of Tor famously opens his history of the Franks with when he's writing in the late sixth century.

我认为这不仅是最好的历史书开篇，更是所有书籍中最棒的开场白。他说：'世间发生了许多事，有些是好事，有些是坏事。'

It's the best opening I think not just any history book but any book ever and he says a great many things keep happening some of them good, some of them bad.

这就是全部的历史！

That's all history!

这...这就是历史的教训，不是吗？

That's that's that's the lesson of history isn't it?

事情发生了。

Stuff happens.

有些是好事，有些是坏事。

Some of it's good, some of it's bad.

我们还能说得更深入吗？

Can we say more than that?

有趣的是，当人们试图书写历史时，他们总是试图从中提炼出某种教训，不是吗？

It's interesting isn't it, that when people seek to write history, they've always generally sought to sort of tease out some kind of lesson.

因此长期以来，历史故事都是关于伟人的事迹，以及未来领导者能从中汲取什么教训。

So, for a long time, the story of history was the deeds of great men and what lesson can future leaders learn.

这就是为什么历史在很多方面被书写的原因。

So that was why history was written in many ways.

某种程度上，历史是为受过教育的精英阶层准备的，让他们学习马克·安东尼等人的错误，确保自己不会重蹈覆辙——历史往往就是关于傲慢被戳破的故事。

It was for sort of educated elite people to learn the mistakes of, I don't know, Mark Anthony or somebody, and to make sure they don't, I mean, often history is sort of the story of the puncturing of hubris.

这似乎是个反复出现的主题。

I mean, seems such a sort of recurrent theme.

现在有趣的是，我认为我们并没有放弃这种观念。

Now, the interesting thing is that I don't think we have abandoned that.

所以现在我认为——你在所有关于历史、去殖民化、雕像等讨论中都能看到这一点。

So now I think, and you see this so much in all the discussion about history and decolonization and statues and all the rest of it.

人们仍然希望从历史中寻求某种意识形态支持，不是吗？

People want, they still look to history to furnish kind of ideological support, I guess, don't they?

所以他们回顾历史时会说，历史就是一系列鼓舞人心的范例，我们可以学习这些人如何反抗压迫或其他类似斗争的经验。

So they look to history and they say, the story of history is a series of inspiring examples and we can learn the lesson of how these people fought against oppression or whatever it might be.

是的，我认为你说得对。

Yeah I think that's right.

我认为从古至今，历史本质上就是提供可供效仿的榜样和可供汲取的教训。

I think history traditionally going right the way back to the beginning and right the way up to the present is about examples that we can follow, lessons that we can learn in that sense.

不过我能回到古希腊的话题吗？

But can I go back to the ancient Greeks?

我是说我知道

I mean I know

这非常

it's very

符合我们这个时代的特征。

very in our time to do that.

在我们这个时代研究历史，总是要从古希腊开始。

You always have to start if you're in our time with the Greeks.

但如果你看看修昔底德——这类历史学家的典型代表，他非常明确地表示自己写这本书不仅是为了当下，更是要成为永恒的财富。

But if you you look at Thucydides who is kind of the archetype of this kind of historian, somebody who says very deliberately that he's writing this book to be not just for the now but to be a possession for all time.

现在你看看西点军校或军事学院，或是大学里的国际关系中心，他们都对修昔底德推崇备至，因为他们认为'这里面确实有经验教训'。

And when you look now at say West Point or military academies or, foreign affairs centres in universities, they're very keen on Thucydides because they look at him and they say 'yeah there are actual lessons here'.

目前最经典的例子就是美中关系中所谓的'修昔底德陷阱'，即既有超级大国必然会受到新兴大国的威胁。

So the classic one that's very popular at the moment in relation to America and China is what they call the Thucydides trap which is the idea that a set power, a set superpower, is going to be menaced by another power coming up on the track.

就像斯巴达受到雅典威胁，一战前英国受到德国威胁，现在美国受到中国威胁。

So Sparta is menaced by Athens, Britain was menaced by Germany before the first world war, America is now menaced by China.

于是他们从中推导出这样的观点：不仅修昔底德的作品，实际上所有历史著作都包含着可以应用于任何情境的深刻教训。

And so they extrapolate from this the idea that that you can find in Thucydides and I suppose by extension every work of history kind of hard lessons that can be applied in any situation.

但我认为这完全误解了修昔底德，也误解了历史的本质。因为修昔底德从未给出刻板的教条，他只是标明了各种可能性的情境。

But I think that that is to certainly to misunderstand Thucydides and it's to understand the nature of history generally because actually Thucydides is never saying that the I'm not you know he's not giving hard and cast lessons what he's doing is flagging up situations that then will be contingent.

另一个常被引用的所谓修昔底德教训是：强者为所欲为，弱者逆来顺受。

So another famous lesson that supposedly Thucydides gives and again it's much quoted at the moment is the idea that the strong do as they wish and the weak have to put up with it.

这同样是在伯罗奔尼撒战争的背景下发生的。

And this again is in the kind of the context of the Peloponnesian war.

雅典人正准备进攻米洛斯岛并将其夷为平地。

The Athenians are about to attack the island Of Milos and incinerate it.

但矛盾的是，这将促使雅典人随后入侵西西里，并最终输掉战争。

But the paradox of that is that this is going to then encourage the Athenians to invade Sicily and basically lose the war.

所以雅典人误解了他们自己得出的教训。

So the Athenians misunderstand their own lesson.

我认为这正是风险所在，不是吗？

And I think that that's kind of the risk isn't it?

如果你从历史中强行推导出僵化的教训，那么你很可能会曲解它们。

Is that if you extrapolate hard solid lessons from history then you're going to misinterpret them.

汤姆，这方面确实有些典型案例。说到西点军校这类军事学院，我觉得他们恰恰是最不擅长吸取这些教训的人，对吧？

Well there are some excellent examples of that Tom and actually when you talk about West Point and sort of military academies, I think they're some of the worst people drawing these lessons, aren't they?

典型的例子就是绥靖政策的教训。

I mean, the classic one is the lesson of appeasement.

我是说，这就是那种，我们已经多次讨论过世界大战如何演变成神话，成为二十一世纪文明的某种奠基神话。

I mean, that's the sort of, we've talked a lot about the sort of the way in which the world wars have become a myth and they've become a sort of foundational myth of twenty first century civilization.

一次又一次，政客们和殖民者们诉诸绥靖政策，他们完全误解为某种软弱无力的政策，或者认为绥靖者只是懦夫。

And time and again, politicians and colonists reach for appeasement, which they completely misunderstand as a policy of sort of flabby weakness and one, or just sort of, they think that the appeasers were just cowards.

而绥靖政策的教训就是，面对任何强人或你不喜欢的人，如果你不站出来对抗，他们就会接管世界等等。

And that the lesson of appeasement is that you have any sort of strong man or anybody that you don't like and if you don't stand up to them, then they will take over the world and all the rest of it.

在1960年代的美国经常听到这种论调，在肯尼迪和约翰逊的白宫时期，以及国家安全委员会之类的机构中。

And you heard this a lot in America in the 1960s, in the sort of Kennedy and Johnson White Houses, and then the sort of National Security Council and whatnot.

他们会围坐在一起说，我们不能重蹈1930年代英国的覆辙。

They would sit around and they would say, we can't be Britain in the 1930s.

我们必须向越南增派部队。

We have to send more troops to Vietnam.

我们必须击退共产主义。

We have to roll back communism.

我们必须站出来对抗他们，诸如此类的话。

We must stand up to them and all the rest of it.

然后当然还有伊拉克。

And then of course you Iraq.

听到

Heard

对。

Right.

伊拉克。

Iraq.

伊拉克是另一个时期。

Iraq is the other time.

托尼·布莱尔和乔治·布什经常谈论绥靖政策，他们说历史的教训就是要对抗独裁者。

So Tony Blair and George Bush, they talk about appeasement a lot, and they say the lesson of history is you stand up to dictators.

英国在苏伊士运河问题上做出这一可怕决定时也有自己的经验。

And Britain has its own experience in making this terrible decision with Suez.

所以我认为这实际上是1956年苏伊士运河事件中，绥靖这个比喻第一次真正被付诸行动。

So I think that's the first time actually Suez in 1956, where the appeasement sort of metaphor was really dragged into action.

经历过绥靖政策的安东尼·艾登曾说，埃及民族主义领袖纳赛尔上校将苏伊士运河国有化，他就是墨索里尼。

Anthony Eden, who had lived through appeasement said, Colonel Nasser, the nationalist leader of Egypt, who's nationalized the Suez Canal, he is Mussolini.

他是另一个墨索里尼。

He is another Mussolini.

我们必须站出来。

And we must stand out.

其实他不是，他只是个纳赛尔。

Mean, he wasn't, he was just a Nasser.

我认为这种历史教训的诱惑在于，人们会说唐纳德·特朗普其实就是阿道夫·希特勒。

And I think that tendency, sort of lesson of history temptation is that you say Donald Trump actually is Adolf Hitler.

这就是那种历史重演的论调，不是吗？

And that's the sort of history repeating itself stuff, isn't it?

而我从不相信历史会重演。

Which I never believe that history repeats itself.

是啊，把政敌比作希特勒的倾向，与其说是历史教训不如说是...？

Yeah, I think the tendency to accuse your enemies of being Hitler is I mean it's not so much a lesson is it?

这就像一种痉挛反应。

It's a kind of spasm.

这是一种膝跳反射式的反应，不是吗？

It's a sort of knee jerk thing isn't it?

纳粹德国就是这样开始的！

This is how Nazi Germany started!

所以也许历史给我们的一个教训就是：人们实际上并不是希特勒。

So maybe one of the lessons of history is that people aren't actually Hitler.

嗯，从定义上来说没有人是希特勒。

Well nobody is Hitler by definition.

但有趣的是，这难道不是一种很好的终结争论的方式吗？?

But it's funny isn't it how people it's a good way of closing down an argument, right?

你说这是纳粹主义

That you say well this is Nazism, this is Hitler, therefore evil, therefore we must immediately throw our hands in the air and intervene or do whatever.

这.

But it's interesting the extent to which we are historically conditioned.

所以我们讨论问题时不得不追溯历史先例，你知道，我们无法纯粹就事论事。

So we can't talk about issues without reaching back to history for precedents and for you know, you can't consider things purely on their own merit.

所以唐纳德·特朗普不能只是唐纳德·特朗普。

So Donald Trump can't just be Donald Trump.

他必须被拿来与十九世纪三十年代的独裁者，或是十九世纪的民粹主义者之类作比较。

He has to be compared with the dictators of the nineteen thirties or sort of nineteenth century populists or whatever.

还有另一种方式——再次回溯到古希腊时期——人们从历史中汲取教训，那就是识别其中的模式。

There is another way in which, again looking back to the Greeks, you can people have drawn lessons from history and that's to kind of identify patterns within it.

就像他提出的观点：如果你研究过去，就能为政治汲取经验教训。

So if you sit at these kind of you know he sets out the idea that if you study the past you can draw lessons for politics.

但希罗多德，他的前辈，你提到了傲慢在希罗多德笔下的重要性——基本上有种观点认为历史会形成一种模式：那些饥饿的人、穷人、生活在边缘地带的人。

But Herodotus, his predecessor, is and you mentioned the importance of hubris basically in Herodotus there's this idea that history generates a pattern that you have, people who are hungry, people who are poor, people who live on the margins.

他们很坚韧。

They're tough.

而他们看到富庶的城市、强大的帝国，这些富强的帝国却变得软弱。

And they see wealthy cities, wealthy empires, and these wealthy empires become soft.

然后饥饿的贫民会涌入，接管政权，随后变得富裕而软弱，接着又有更多饥饿的人涌入，这种循环周而复始。

And the hungry lean people can move in and they take over and then they become wealthy and they become soft and then more hungry people move in and you get this cycle going on and on.

有趣的是，这基本上就是中世纪伟大的穆斯林历史学家伊本·赫勒敦提出的观点，他同样描绘了这种模式——边缘人群终将向伟大定居中心进发。

And it's interesting because that's basically the idea that you get in Ibn Khaldun, the great medieval, Muslim historian who likewise kind of traces this pattern that people on the periphery will inevitably move in on the great settled centres.

所以这是否意味着...我不确定，你认为像希罗多德和伊本·赫勒敦那样追溯历史中的这类模式有什么价值吗？

So does that I mean I don't know, you think that there's any value in tracing those kind of patterns through history in the way that Herodotus and Ibn Khaldun did?

我想这其中也带有某种马克思主义元素，不是吗？

I suppose it's kind of an element of Marxism there isn't there as well?

确实存在。

There is.

我是说，这些现象并非偶然，它们在结构上是必然的，对吧？

Mean yeah that these things are not mean, I they're structurally driven, aren't they?

我认为这种说法很合理——说一个贫瘠而饥渴的世代会奋力攀上权力巅峰，然后被一个更富足、更安逸的世代取代，这并不夸张。

That you get a I mean, I think that that is a reasonable sort of I don't think it's a stretch to say that lean and hungry, a lean and hungry generation claws its way to power and then gives way to a sort of a fatter and less hungry one.

你只需观察同代人就能明白，白手起家的人通常会有缺乏动力的后代，原因你懂的。

I mean, you're just sort of viewing one's contemporaries, you can see how self made people classically will have children who are less driven because they're, you know, all the rest of it.

这对社会也同样适用。

And that's true of societies as well.

我认为你可以看到这一点，而且我认为否认你能在特定情境中看到模式重复出现是很奇怪的。

I think you can see that and you can see, I think it would be weird to deny that you can look at particular situations and see patterns recurring.

比如，如果你同时研究过法国大革命和俄国革命，我认为否认它们之间的相似性是很荒谬的。

Mean, you refer for instance, if you studied both the French Revolution and the Russian Revolution, it would be perverse, I think.

当然，它们各有不同，但如果说它们之间没有任何模式可言，那就太荒谬了。

I mean, course, they're different, but it'd be perverse to say there's no pattern whatsoever.

路易十六和尼古拉二世之间，或是吉伦特派和孟什维克之间，根本没有任何相似之处。

There's no similarity at all between Louis XVI and Nicholas II or between you know the Girondin and the Mensheviks or something.

但这难道不是因为法国和俄国革命本质上都是从同一种意识形态土壤中孕育出来的吗？

But isn't that because both the French and the Russian revolutions are essentially generated from the same kind of ideological mulch?

它们都汲取了相同的养分——虽然我不该谈论基督教，但我还是要提一下。

That their blooms from the same you know they're drawing on- well I'm not allowed to talk about Christianity but I'm going through it.

它们都基于根深蒂固的基督教观念：关于前者将沦为末者，末者将跃居首位；关于千年审判时绵羊与山羊终将分离这类思想。

They're drawing on kind of deeply rooted Christian assumptions about the idea that the first will be last and the last will be first and that there'll be a kind of millennial reckoning when the sheep will be divided from the goats and that kind of thing.

所以你不会——我是说你不会经历革命。

So you don't get- mean but you don't get revolutions.

[但这不算是逻辑上的革命，不是吗？

[It's not the logical revolution though isn't it?

我是说革命中就会发生这种事。]

I mean that's what happens in a revolution.]

是的，但革命具有文化特殊性。

Yeah but revolutions are culturally specific.

我是说，在毛泽东之前的中国或中美洲地区，会有那样的革命吗？

I mean do you get revolutions like that in Mesoamerica or in China before Mao?

我认为没有，因为历史的教训可能只有在特定文化背景下才非常精确。

I mean I don't think so because I think that the lessons of history maybe they're very precise if you're looking at specific cultural contexts.

但更广泛的问题在于，是否存在适用于整个历史跨度的普遍教训？

But the broader issue I guess is are there universal lessons that apply kind of across the entire span?

不，我认为没有。

No I'd say no.

不是在社交

Not on a social

层面。

level.

但好吧，看看历史学家伊本·赫勒敦的观点，这是个非常唯物主义的观点。

But okay so looking at the Hierogist Ibn Khaldun idea, it's a very materialist idea.

这个观点认为，最终会有生活在边缘地带的人不可避免地进入中心，因为他们渴望得到自己没有的东西。

The idea that ultimately there are people who live on the periphery who inevitably will come in because they don't have stuff that they want.

但汤姆，这难道不也是特定背景下的产物吗？

But doesn't that also work in a context though, Tom?

你所说的这些不也是具有历史特定性吗？他们讨论的都是特定地区，比如欧亚大陆之类的

Isn't that also historically specific that you're talking about, you know, they're both talking about a particular place, the sort of Eurasia and all the rest

嗯，具体来说是适用的。

of Well, specifically it works.

我是说，在沙漠地区就适用，对吧？

I mean, works with deserts, doesn't it?

这种观点认为存在城市文明的中心地带和边缘地带。

And the idea that you have kind of centres of urban civilisation and then you have kind of peripheries.

但反过来换个角度看，高度定居的文明往往比非定居文明更强大。

But the converse of that again to turn it on its head is that very settled sedentary civilisations are likely to be more powerful than those that aren't.

比如16世纪初抵达中美洲的西班牙人，带来了数千年定居文明的积累，而阿兹特克人则不具备这种优势。

So a Spaniard arriving in Central America in the early sixteenth century brings with him thousands of years of sedentary civilization and the Aztecs don't have that.

从这个角度看，其实可以说伊本·赫勒敦完全搞反了——往往正是来自富裕中心地带的文明会取得胜利。

And in that context actually you could say that Ibn Khaltin's got it exactly wrong that it's always those from the wealthy centres that will triumph.

但这说不通吧？

But that doesn't work, it?

看看蒙古人。

Look at the Mongols.

看看蒙古人。

Look at the Mongols.

他们可是建立了历史上最庞大的陆地帝国。

I mean they built the greatest land empire in history.

他们横扫一切，是典型的草原游牧民族，来到定居的欧洲或亚洲社会，洗劫了巴格达等地，进军波兰、匈牙利等地区。

They swept through everybody and they were your classic Steppe nomads coming to sedentary societies to sort of settled European or Asian sacking places like Baghdad, going into Poland and Hungary and all the rest of it.

蒙古人正是伊本·赫勒敦笔下那种典型的外来者，不是吗？

I mean the Mongols are the classic kind of Ibn Khaldun outsiders aren't they?

他们处于边缘地带，是游牧民族、草原骑手，无人能抵挡他们。

They're on the margins, they're nomads, step horsemen and no one can resist them.

确实如此，但或许历史的教训在于游牧民族终将被同化，最终会融入他们所征服的文明形态。

They are but you could say that maybe the lesson of history is that nomads will be absorbed and essentially take on the contours of the civilizations that they conquer.

你看，蒙古人基本上就变成了中国人。

So you know, I mean the Mongols basically became Chinese.

但这在我看来并不是一个特别令人惊讶或引人深思的历史教训。

And that just doesn't seem to me like a very surprising or compelling lesson though.

在我看来，有时候历史教训不过是显而易见的常识罢了。

Mean, that just seems to me like sometimes a lesson from history just strikes me as plain common sense.

比如说，一个白手起家的贪婪之人，往往会有个懒惰、被宠坏、放纵的儿子。

So, for example, the point about a sort of rapacious self made man then has a lazy, spoiled, self indulgent son.

我的意思是，我觉得不需要深入研究历史记录也能明白这一点吧。

I mean, I don't think you need to have sort of pored through the records of history to work that one out, surely.

但是贾里德·戴蒙德的观点呢？

But what about the kind of the the Jared Diamond perspective?

那种认为一个文明的成就本质上取决于物质条件的观点。

The the sense that the achievements of a given civilisation essentially are dependent on material circumstances.

它们取决于你拥有什么作物、能驯养什么动物、拥有什么原材料储备，这些才是决定性因素。

They're dependent on what crops you may have, what animals you can domesticate, what reservoirs of raw materials you have, and that's the determinant.

我是说，这些正是贾里德·戴蒙德会称之为硬核历史教训的例子。

Mean now those are lessons that Jarrod Diamond would say these are hardcore lessons.

他确实会这么说，你现在正好触及了我最反感历史书的一点——那些宣称《枪炮、病菌与钢铁》之类包含112条民主衰亡教训、西方崛起秘诀的书籍。

He would and you've now hit upon one of my great sort of one of the things I really hate about history which are books that claim guns, germs, steel, and whatever, a 112 lessons in how democracies die, how the West rose, all this kind of thing.

这类书我总觉得像是密尔沃基机场书店里卖给美国商务人士的读物。

Those books I mean, I always associate all those books with a sort of the airport bookstore in Milwaukee or something, and I think those are books that are for American businessmen.

他们弄丢了充电器，又要飞两小时去堪萨斯城，急需读物，于是选了本自以为能学到全部历史教训的书。

They've lost their charger, they've got a two hour flight to Kansas City, they need something to read, and here is a book that they think will give them all the lessons of history.

他们可以把它浓缩成12分钟的TED演讲，听完就自以为通晓了全部历史，预知了未来走向，这类书总是如此。

They can boil it down to a 12 TED Talk and at the end of it they'll know all history, they'll know what's going to happen, because that's what all these books always do.

这些书宣称我们研究了过去，将其浓缩成PPT演示稿，现在就能预知二十三世纪会发生什么。

They say we have studied the past and we've boiled it down to this sort of PowerPoint presentation and now we know what's going happen in the twenty third century.

我个人非常厌恶这种论调。

And I find all that stuff, personally, I hate all that stuff.

我认为它抹杀了历史所有的复杂性和多样性。

I think it removes all the complexity and the difference about history.

它本质上在说所有历史都遵循既定规则，就像电子游戏，只要掌握规则就能获胜。

It sort of basically says all history is the same, there are set rules, it's like a video game, and once you work them out, you know, you'll win.

我觉得这简直是推土机式的粗暴逻辑。

And I think it's bulldozers actually.

这就是历史教训的问题所在，对吧？

Well, that's the issue with lessons of history, isn't it?

如果这些教训绝对正确，那某种意义上你就无法逃脱其束缚。

Is that if they're absolutely solid, then in a sense you can't escape them.

它们就像一种紧身衣，而我们——我想这就是那个观点——注定要重蹈过去的覆辙。

They're like a kind of straight jacket and we're just and I suppose that that's the idea that we're doomed to repeat the mistakes of the past.

卡尔·马克思是怎么说的来着？

Well what is it Karl Marx said?

人们自己创造历史，但是他们并不是在自己选定的条件下创造历史——大意如此。

People make their own history but they make it in circumstances not of their own choosing or words to their effect.

我们都是历史的囚徒，不是吗？

I mean we are prisoners of history, aren't we?

但我认为，以为我们能找出一套公式来避免前人犯过的错误，这种想法本身就是谬误。

But I think it's a fallacy to think that we can identify a series of formulae by which we'll avoid the mistakes of our predecessors.

显然，历史给我们的一个教训就是：人们从来不会避免重蹈前人的覆辙。

I mean, patently one lesson from history is that people don't avoid the mistakes of their predecessors.

你现在是这么认为的吗？

Do you now think?

嗯，我认为我们不断犯同样的错误，是因为这些错误某种程度上是不可避免的。

Well, I think we keep on making the same mistakes because those mistakes are kind of inevitable.

那么让我们来看看英国脱欧。

Well so let's look at Brexit.

我觉得我们还没有真正讨论过这个话题。

Something I feel that we haven't really touched on.

我没想到会提到这个。

I didn't see that coming.

在脱欧辩论中，双方都说历史的教训要么是我们应该留在欧盟，要么是我们应该离开。

So both sides in the Brexit debate say that the lesson of history is either that we should stay in the European Union or we should leave.

所以你可以选择接受哪些教训。

So you choose the lessons.

但我要说的是，在这个背景下，历史的教训是我们永远无法下定决心。

But I would say that in that context the lesson of history is that we were never going to be able to make our mind up.

这始终会是一种分裂，因为本质上我们英国人是地理的囚徒。

It was always going to be a kind of split because essentially we in Britain are the prisoner of our geography.

你看，我们既不能与欧洲大陆共存，又离不开它。

We are, you know, can't live with Continental Europe, can't live without it.

所以对我来说，这就是一个历史教训，我们与欧洲大陆的关系总是处于这种推拉状态，你可以从英国与欧洲大陆关系的历史进程中看出这一点，这在我看来是一个非常核心的教训。

So that would that for me would be a lesson of history that we kind of do to repeat this push me pull your relationship with Continental Europe and you can see that looking at the way that the course of British relationship to Continental Europe that seems to me a fairly hardcore lesson that you can draw.

但我不会极端到说这个教训就是我们应该离开或者我们应该留下。

But I wouldn't go so far as to say the lesson is yeah we should leave or yeah we should stay.

是的，不，我认为你在这点上是正确的。

Yeah, no, think you're right about that.

我认为这个教训更多是告诉我们没有一个明确的答案。

I think the lesson there is not so much a lesson that gives a neat answer.

这个教训基本上是说这是一个开放性问题，而且永远都会是。

It's a lesson that basically says it's an open question and always will be.

可能有些听众会不喜欢这样，因为他们对英国脱欧有非常强烈的看法。

And some listeners might not like that because they'll have very strong views about Brexit.

但如果你看看另一个例子，同样在欧洲大陆的边缘，我记得读到的文章说乌克兰有选择欧洲未来或俄罗斯未来的问题。

But if you take another example, also on the European fringe, I remember reading an article a few years about Ukraine.

这篇文章说，乌克兰面临着选择欧洲未来还是俄罗斯未来的抉择。

And the article said, Ukraine has this choice of a European future or a Russian future.

但作为乌克兰的本质就是永远面临这个选择，且永远无法彻底解决。

But the very nature of being Ukraine is you always have that choice and it's never resolved.

而这正是英国与欧洲关系的写照。

And that's exactly the position with Britain and Europe.

我的意思是，显然我们属于欧洲，是欧洲的一部分，但同样明显的是，有许多人不觉得自己是欧洲人，而英国始终觉得自己处于边缘地带，有些与众不同等等。

I mean, obviously, we are European and we're part of Europe, but obviously also there's a lot of people who don't feel European and Britain has always felt itself to be peripheral and slightly different and all the rest of it.

这是个无法回避的问题，我同意你的观点，但我认为这个历史教训的不同之处在于它是开放性的。

And that's not a question that can go away and I agree with you that, but I think what's different about that lesson is that that's a lesson that is kind of open ended.

我对历史教训持怀疑态度的原因在于，它们往往会终结对话，将其简化为某种恰好符合他们观点的完美公式。

Think why I'm suspicious of lessons from history is where they sort of shut the conversation down and they reduce it to a sort of very neat formula that miraculously coincides with what they think.

政治偏见。

Political prejudices.

但我同意这个观点——就像乔伊斯说的，历史是我们试图醒来的噩梦。

But I agree the idea well I mean you know, Joyce said that the idea that history is a nightmare from which we struggle to wake up.

我认为这其中确实存在某种困境：我们受制于某些无法摆脱的语境，可能是由于地理因素或其他原因。

I think that there is something there that we are stuck in certain contexts that we can't really break free from because of geography, because of whatever.

说到我们努力想醒来的噩梦，让我们先休息一下。

Anyway talking of nightmares from which we're struggling to wake up, let's have a break.

欢迎回到《余下皆为历史》。

Welcome back to The Rest is History.

请记得评分、评论，最重要的是在您收听播客的平台订阅我们。

Do please remember to rate, review, most importantly subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.

提醒您可以通过推特使用theresthistory联系我们，注意推特账号里没有'is'这个词。

And a reminder to get in touch with us on Twitter using theresthistory so note there's no 'is' in the Twitter handle.

您也可以通过hollandtom联系我，或者用dcsandbrook或dc sandbrook来骚扰Dominic，随您喜欢。

You can also contact me on hollandtom or you can hassle Dominic using dcsandbrook or dc sandbrook if you want.

你刚才说得真奇怪。

You said that in a very strange way.

我只是觉得dc s听起来比dc sandbrook更好。

Well I just thought dc s sounded better than dc sandbrook.

我是说dc sandbrook听起来像是《警长》之类的剧里的人物。

I mean dc sandbrook you sound like you're in the bill or something.

真的吗？

Really?

是啊，我从没这么想过。

Yes, I've never thought of that.

我一直觉得那听起来像是个维多利亚时代的历史学家，专门写那些被遗忘政客的多卷本传记，但实际上

I'd always thought that that sounded like a kind of the kind of Victorian historian who wrote like multi volume lives of forgotten politicians but actually

不，听起来像个濒临崩溃的警察。

No, sound like a cop on the edge.

对对。

Yeah, yeah.

就像我回到那个空荡荡、灯光惨白的厨房，吃着速食餐，一边追捕连环杀手一边思考我行贿人生的残局。

In one of those kitchens that I go back to that's empty and is very sort of starkly lit and I eat my ready meal and contemplate the wreckage of my briber life while catching the serial killer.

没错。

Yeah exactly.

总之我们严重跑题了。

Anyway, we're slaloming off badly here.

所以历史的教训就是我们总是离题万里

So the lesson of history is that we can't stick to the subject.

我们昨天才把这个发布出去

We only put this up yesterday.

我们已经收到了大量关于它的评论

We've we've had plenty of comments about it already.

对于新听众来说，多米尼克和我会在录制节目前一天通过推特公布每期主题

And for those of you who are new to the way we work, Dominic and I will tweet the subject of each pod the day before we record.

所以请务必在周四关注推特动态，并欢迎提出疑问、分享见解，甚至指正错误

So do keep a lookout on Twitter on a Thursday, and do please send us your questions, your observations, indeed your corrections.

所有反馈我们都欢迎

All are welcome.

那么多米尼克，我们收到了哪些评论？

So Dominic, what comments have we got?

开始吧

So let's go.

实际上我们收到了大量评论。

We've got tons of comments actually.

与其我们在这里东拉西扯，不如直接逐条过一遍，看看能处理多少，能不能全部处理完。

So instead of us just rambling on, we should just go through them all and see how many we can get through, see if we get through all of them.

托马斯·雷耶斯说，他觉得这是个两难困境：不吸取历史教训就会重蹈覆辙，但吸取了教训又会犯新的错误。

So Thomas Reyes says, he says, I feel it's a catch 22 situation where if you don't learn from history, you repeat the same mistakes, but if you do, you make some new ones.

无论如何都会输。

Either way, you lose.

汤姆，你怎么看这个观点？

What do you think of that, Tom?

是啊，我觉得这种焦虑最典型的例子就是避免重演慕尼黑协定。

Yeah well I think that the anxiety to avoid Munich is the classic example of that.

政客们太害怕成为张伯伦那样的人，结果反而会犯各种错误。

Know politicians are so desperate not to become Chamberlain that they kind of blunder into all kinds of mistakes.

确实。

Yeah.

难道没有更好的方式来思考人类事务乃至政治吗？是否应该假设自己会犯错？

Is there not a better way of thinking about human affairs and indeed politics is to assume that you'll make mistakes?

错误无法避免，与其执着于追求某种完美——仿佛只要找到规则就能实现——在我看来这种政治思维非常愚蠢。

There's no way to avoid them and you're just rather than being obsessed with the idea that there's some sort of perfection, which if you only find the rules, you'll be able to I mean that seems to me a very foolish way for politics.

政客们不正是这样做的吗？

Mean politicians do that don't they?

他们在野时装作无所不知，一旦掌权就发现事情变得异常复杂——而这些难题之前却奇迹般地不存在。

They pretend infallibility when they're in opposition, and then it all becomes terribly complicated when they get into office, which they miraculously wasn't beforehand.

所以我认为这种对重复错误的执念...为什么不直接承认作为人类会犯很多错误呢？这样故事就结束了，你甚至再也不需要读任何历史书。

So I think this obsession with repeating mistakes, I mean why don't you just assume you're going to make lots of mistakes because you're human and end of story, you don't need to then read any history books ever again.

你这是在自砸饭碗啊多米尼克。

You're doing yourself out of a job there Dominic.

是啊太蠢了，我闭嘴。

Yeah that's foolish, I'll shut up.

好吧，你觉得这是个重要观点。

Okay well you thought that was a big one.

下一个问题非常宏大，来自'你认为我们能否在历史中看到超越特定地域和时代的人类本性？'

The next one is massive and it's from Do you think we see a human nature through history that transcends specific places and time?

我想这大概就是我们上半场讨论中隐约触及的内容。

I guess that's what we were kind of fencing around in in the first half.

以及历史基本上可以成为一门科学分支的观点。

And the idea that history can become basically a kind of a branch of science.

我是说这件事

I mean it's been

最近频繁出现在新闻中。

very much in the news.

美国有位学者，我记得是俄裔，叫彼得·图尔钦，原本是研究松树甲虫的专家，现在他把研究甲虫的方法论应用到了智人研究上。

There's a guy in America, I think he's originally Russian, called Peter Turchen who was a specialist in pine beetles and he has now applied his methodology in studying pine beetles to Homo sapiens.

他上新闻是因为大约十年前就预测2020年会是天崩地裂的灾难之年。

He's been in the news because he, I think about a decade ago, predicted that 2020 was going to be a terrible year where everything fell to pieces.

而他正是通过对人类本性的研究得出这个结论的。

And he was able to arrive at this conclusion by his study of human nature.

这听起来很有科幻小说的味道。

There's something very kind of science fiction about that.

著名的例子就是艾萨克·阿西莫夫的《基地》系列，里面有个叫哈里·谢顿的人用它来精确预测未来会发生什么。

The famous example of that is Isaac Asimov's Foundation series where there's a guy called Harry Seldon who uses it to predict exactly what is going to happen in the future.

他的预测确实持续了大概几个世纪，然后一切都出错了。

And his predictions do indeed hold out for I think several centuries and then it all goes wrong.

但这是一种普遍的幻想——如果我们能确定人性的本质并将其应用于历史研究，就能推算出未来的走向。

But it is a kind of common fantasy I think the idea that if only we can identify what human nature is and apply it to the study of the past then we can work out what the future will hold.

我认为我们可以通过研究历史来理解人性，甚至通过观察操场上的孩子也能了解人性——历史其实并没有那么不同。

I think we can work out what human nature is, or we can get a good sense of human nature through studying history and indeed through, I mean, can get a sense of human nature through being a child on a playground just looking around history is actually not so different.

预测未来？我觉得那完全是胡扯。

Predicting the future, think that's all complete balls actually.

但关于人性，是的，我认为你确实能从历史中学到人性的本质。

But human nature, yes, I think you do learn about human nature from history.

因为我经常阅读大量历史书籍——你知道，我其中一个工作就是为《星期日泰晤士报》评论不同时期的历史著作，这让我深有体会。

I mean, I really do feel that reading a lot of, because one of my jobs is as a, you know, I review a lot of history books for The Sunday Times, different periods.

所以，你知道，我每年要读几十本书，都不是我的专业领域。

So, you know, I'd read dozens of books a year, not on my specialism.

最让我震惊的是，这些书让我对人类处境更加悲观，因为在这么多书里，人们就是表现得非常恶劣，互相残杀等等。

And one thing that really strikes me, I mean, they have made me much more pessimistic about the human condition, because in so many of these books, people just behave terribly and kill each other and all the rest of it.

我认为研究历史会让你变得更加...它应该让你在政治上更加谦逊。

And I think studying history makes you much more, it should make you more humble politically.

你会更加意识到自己在人生大戏中的渺小角色，对当下问题和其他类似事物获得一种宏观视角。

You become much more aware of your own miniscule role in life's rich pageant and gives you a sort of sense of perspective about the issues of the day and all that kind of things.

你不这么认为吗，汤姆？

Don't you think Tom?

当你研究波斯战争那些历史的时候？

When you're studying the Persian Wars and all that business?

我发现人类的假设是多么多样和偶然，一次又一次地，当你认为存在某些不可简化的核心时，结果根本不是这样。

What I find is how various and contingent human assumptions are and again and again where you think that there are kind of certain core irreducibles, they turn out not to be at all.

你看，对性、爱这些基本事物的态度都是如此受文化制约，以至于那种认为存在一种可以从文化洪流、漩涡和特殊性中提炼出的人性本质的观点，我其实并不认同。

Know, attitudes to something as basic as sex or love or it's all so culturally contingent that that actually the kind of the idea that there is a human nature that can be redeemed from the flux and the swirl and the specificity of culture is something I don't really hold.