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感谢收听《The Rest is Politics》。
Thanks for listening to The Rest is Politics.
要支持本播客，享受无广告收听、提前获取剧集和现场演出门票，请访问 therestispolitics.com。
To support the podcast, listen without the adverts, get early access to episodes and live show tickets, go to therestispolitics.com.
网址是 therestispolitics.com。
That's therestispolitics.com.
本集由 Fuze Energy 赞助播出。
This episode is powered by Fuze Energy.
我们大多数人购买能源时都是一头雾水，根本不知道价格是多少。
Most of us are buying energy in the dark, not knowing what it costs.
你不会在每周买菜时这样操作，但能源费用却常常是先扣款，之后才看到具体数额。
You wouldn't do that with your weekly food shop, but with energy, you're often charged first and only find out the number later.
当你缺乏这种透明度时，通常就会支付比应付款更多的费用，而这正是 Fuze Energy 正在努力改变的能源消费方式。
When you don't have that clarity, you usually end up paying more than you should, which is what Fuze Energy is working to change about how energy works.
普通家庭改用 Fuze 能源，平均每年可节省约 200 英镑的能源账单。
The average household switching to Fuse can save around £200 on their energy bills.
Fuse负责处理实际操作。
Fuse handles the practical side.
这款应用会显示你每天的支出，以及这些支出对账单的实际影响。
The app shows what you're spending day by day and what that actually means for your bills.
对于本节目的听众来说，还有一个额外的好处。
For listeners to the show, there's an added benefit.
切换时使用代码politics，你将获得一次免费旅行和订阅服务。
Use the code politics when you switch, and you'll receive a free trip plus subscription.
切换到Fuse Energy，可节省约200英镑的能源账单。
Switch to Fuse Energy and save around £200 on your energy bills.
使用代码politics，即可获得一次免费旅行和订阅服务。
Use the code politics for a free trip plus subscription.
Fuse energy dot com slash politics。
Fuse energy dot com slash politics.
欢迎收听《The Rest is Politics》，我是阿利斯泰尔·坎贝尔。
Welcome to the rest of politics with me, Alastair Campbell.
和我一起的是罗里·斯图尔特。
And with me, Rory Stewart.
在最近几天，我们至少已经做了三期关于工党以及埃普斯坦文件引发的当前困境的节目。
Now we've done three episodes at least in recent days on labor and the current travails flowing from the Epstein files.
所以我们在问答环节就不谈这个了。
So we're not going to talk about that in question time.
我们要谈谈日本选举，非常有趣。
We're gonna talk about the Japanese election, fascinating.
我们还要谈谈葡萄牙的总统选举。
We're going to talk about the presidential election in Portugal.
也很有趣。
Also fascinating.
我们稍微聊一点体育，罗里。
We have a little bit of sport, Rory.
是的。
Yep.
但体育的政治性。
But the politics of sport.
好的。
Okay.
冬奥会。
Winter Olympics.
是的。
Yep.
超级碗。
Super Bowl.
太好了。
Lovely.
然后我们来聊点轻松的。
And then we're do something a bit lighter.
太好了。
Lovely.
稍后。
Later on.
很好。
Lovely.
好的。
Alright.
所以我们应该尽量严格一些，不谈劳动问题吗？
So should we try and be really disciplined and not talk about labor?
我们是不是也尽量不谈特朗普？
And should we try not to talk about Trump?
好的。
Okay.
那可能会很难，但我们试试看。
How that'd that'd be it could be hard, but we'll try.
好的。
Okay.
我不会接受你关于不提特朗普的挑战，因为我们要回答的第一个问题是来自威尔特郡的马修·赖特提出的，关于日本的问题。
I'm not gonna take your challenge on not mentioning Trump because the first question that we're getting is from Matthew Wright in Wiltshire, which is about Japan.
日本的选举结果对其与中国的关系以及太平洋地区的紧张局势意味着什么？
What does Japan's election result mean for its relationship with China and tensions in The Pacific?
我的意思是，马修，回答的开端当然是，台湾在这次选举中已成为中日之间的主要焦点，因为日本首相高市早苗首次明确表示，日本将不惜一战来保卫台湾免受中国威胁。
I mean, the the beginning of the answer, of course, Matthew, is that Taiwan has become the big flashpoint between China and Japan in this election because Sanae Takaiichi, who is the Japanese prime minister, has now said explicitly for the first time as a Japanese prime minister that they would effectively go to war to defend Taiwan against China.
而习近平被视为一个与你在这档播客中不想提及的那个人以及美国联盟关系更密切的人。
And Xi is somebody who's seen as being closer to the man that you don't wanna mention in this podcast and and The US Alliance
就这一期节目而言。
Just this episode.
这将被中国大加利用，我们稍后会在播客中深入探讨中国可能如何看待这一情况。
And it's gonna be weaponized a great deal by China, and we'll we'll get into that a bit later on the podcast, how the Chinese might perceive it.
但首先，跟我们说说这次选举的情况吧。
But first, tell us a little bit about this election.
好的。
Yeah.
不。
No.
这是一个令人难以置信的故事。
It's an it's an incredible story, this.
高市早苗是日本首位女性首相。
So Sanae Takaiichi is the first female prime minister in Japan.
她是自民党的领导人，这个政党在我有生之年乃至更久以来一直掌权，是一个强大的政治机器，但近年来却有些衰落。
She's the leader of the LDP, this incredible party that has been empowered kind of all of my life and more, and is a sort of formidable political machine that's sort of been spluttering in recent years.
首相更迭频繁，腐败严重，政坛老龄化严重。
And prime minister's falling over the edge, a lot of corruption, a lot of gerontocracy.
就在这时，高市出现了，她接过了领导权。
And along comes Takaichi, and she takes over the leadership.
她第三次尝试后终于成为首相，执政了110天。
She becomes prime minister for the third the third time of trying, and she's in power for a hundred and ten days.
她推行了一些相当大胆的经济举措。
She does some really quite bold economic things.
我们会讨论一下，我们认为这些措施是否会奏效。
We'll talk about whether we think they're gonna work or not.
然后她宣布举行提前选举。
And then she calls a snap election.
她做了三件你常被告诫绝对不能做的事。
And she does three things that you're constantly told not to do.
不要把竞选周期缩短到连你自己的竞选候选人都无法充分准备。
Don't make the campaign so short that even your own campaign candidates can't prepare properly.
她只进行了两周的竞选。
She has a two week campaign.
永远不要在冬天进行选举，因为人们难以前往投票站。
Never do it in the middle of winter because people struggle to get to the polls.
她在大雪纷飞时举行选举，也不要赶在学生考试期间，尤其是她对年轻人有很强的吸引力。
She does it in these massive snowfalls and don't do it when students are doing exams because particularly like her when she's got a big appeal to young people.
所以她把这三件事全做了。
So she does all those things.
寒冬时节，学生放假，这简直是一场突如其来的选举。
Middle of winter, students off, and it's a snap literally a snap election.
她以压倒性优势获胜，赢得了465个席位中的316个。
And she's won massively 316 of 465 seats.
从198个席位上升而来。
Up from a 198.
她从少数派直接跃升至下议院近三分之二的席位。
So she's just gone from a minority to basically nearly two thirds of the lower house.
在日本体系中，如果你获得三分之二的席位，就意味着你可以推动巨大变革，而她只要得到创新党另一部分的支持就能做到。
And if you get two thirds in the Japanese system, it means you can make massive change, and she can do that with a bit of support from, this other part of the the innovation party.
她将大有作为，而且她本人是一个非常有趣的人物。
So she's gonna do a lot and she she's she's a very she is a very interesting figure.
当我们最初讨论她成为领导人时，我们都说过，她穿着像撒切尔夫人，说自己希望被看作‘铁娘子’，并以她为榜样。
When we first talked about her when she became the leader, we both said, you know, that she because she dresses like Thatcher and she says she she she says she likes wants to be seen as the iron lady and she models herself on that.
我收到一封来自东京某大学政治学教授蒂娜·巴雷特女士的有趣邮件。
And I had a very interesting email from a a woman called Tina Barrett, who is a professor of political science at a university in Tokyo.
她给我发了一封很长的邮件，很久以前就说过，你们被宣传攻势蒙蔽了。
And she sent me a long note way back saying, you guys are getting caught out by the propaganda.
这个女人的可信度比玛格丽特·撒切尔还低。
This woman is more less trust than Margaret Thatcher.
嗯，这里有很多话题可以聊。
Well, there's I mean, so so much to talk about here.
但我觉得第一点是，日本真的非常重要。
But I think first thing is Japan really, really matters.
我的意思是，我们稍后会谈到葡萄牙，但日本仍然是世界上最大的经济体之一。
I mean, we'll we'll get on we'll get on to Portugal in a bit, but Japan is still one of the largest economies in the world.
它是美国在印太地区的重要伙伴，也是制衡中国的重要力量。
It is America's big partner in the Indo Pacific, big balance against China.
我觉得最让我震惊的是，全球政治的不可预测性已经达到了前所未有的程度。
And the first thing I think that really strikes me is a reminder of how unpredictable global politics has become.
因为我一直密切关注着这件事。
Because I was, following very closely.
我去年在日本，当时密切关注了一群日本本土和外国的日本问题专家对这次选举的讨论。
I I was in Japan last year, and I was following very closely a series of Japan experts, both Japanese and foreigners, talking about this election.
基本上，是一连串的意外接踵而至。
And basically, it's been surprise after surprise after surprise.
你完全搞错了。
You got it all wrong.
所以第一点是，当她竞选领导人时，正如你所说，因为她已经两次落败，而且她是一位女性，是一位来自右翼的非常不寻常的女性。
So the the first thing is that when she was running for leadership, as you say, because she'd been defeated twice already, and she's a woman, and she's quite an unusual woman from the right.
当时的主流观点普遍期待胜利者会是小泉。
A lot of the conventional wisdom, was hoping that the victor was going to be Koizumi.
小泉是你认识的那位人士的儿子，他是前首相的儿子。
Koizumi is the son of the man that you knew, so he's the premise's son.
他四十岁出头。
He's in his early forties.
他很有魅力。
He's glamorous.
他算是比较中间派的，更偏向自民党左翼。
He's quite kinda centrist, more on the left of the LDP.
实际上，他成功地与另一位中间派竞争，分散了选票。
And actually, what happens is that he manages to run against another centrist, split the vote.
他最终获得了27%的选票。
He ends up with 27% of the vote.
她获得了31%的选票。
She gets 31%.
因此，她以微弱优势击败了所有专家的预测，成为了领导人。
So she comes to a pretty narrow margin against all the pundits' predictions and becomes leader.
接下来发生的事是，所有人都咂舌说，她接下来会很艰难，因为事实上，她被视为一个局外人，而这个政党主要由我们常说的那些人主导——在日本政治中，许多人都是政治世家。
Next thing that happens is everybody then sucks their teeth and says, well, it's gonna be pretty difficult for her because, actually, you know, she's seen as a bit of a sort of outsider in a party dominated by these people who are, as we've often said when we're talking about Japanese politics, many of them are dynasts.
他们是部长和首相的子女、孙辈。
You know, they're children, grandchildren of ministers and prime ministers.
她出身于更普通的家庭，来自神户，最初并没有上最顶尖的大学等等。
And she's from a a more modest background from Nada, didn't go, initially to the fanciest universities, etcetera.
所以她会很艰难，而且处于一个不可能的境地。
So it's gonna be difficult for her, and and she's in an impossible situation.
据说她无法胜任，因为一个极右翼政党——Sanseto——已经开始吸引大量反移民选票。
The story was she can't do it because a far right party has emerged, Sanseto, which is beginning to pick up big anti immigrant vote.
同时，她将在左翼的联盟伙伴那里失去支持，因为这些伙伴明确表示，他们非常不愿意与右翼政党扯上关系。
And at the same time, she's gonna lose her coalition partner on the left who have signaled they're extremely uncomfortable being connected with the right wing party.
所以她的困境有点像英国保守党的情况。
So her problem feels a bit like, you know, for example, the Tory party in Britain.
你别过度延伸这个类比，但正如你的朋友克里斯·梅森所说，她正面临Sanseto改革势力的崛起和不断壮大。
You don't wanna overstretch it, but she's got the rise, as your friend Chris Mason would say, the rise and rise of sans serto of reform.
改革势力的崛起和不断壮大。
Rise and rise of reform.
我觉得他有点不高兴。
He was a bit upset, I thought.
但我们稍后再谈这个。
But we'll not talk about it later.
继续说。
Carry on.
无论如何，她右边正在发生这种情况。
Anyway, that's happening on her right.
与此同时，她即将失去左翼联盟。
Meanwhile, she's about to lose the left wing coalition.
而且，据说没人能改变日本政治，因为用英国政治的另一个陈词滥调来说，治理已经崩溃了。
And the story is nobody can change, Japanese politics because, to use another cliche from British politics, governance is broken.
日本政府已经瘫痪了。
Japanese government's broken.
基本上，故事是首相们都不长久。
And, basically, the story is prime ministers don't last.
什么也做不成。
Nothing can get done.
自民党正如你所说，深陷于老人、腐败、庞大的派系和政策机器之中，所以她被困住了。
The LDP is mired in, as you say, old people, corruption, these incredible factions and policy machines, so she's stuck.
然后她宣布举行选举。
And then she calls an election.
是的。
Mhmm.
然后所有人都说：哇。
And then everyone's like, woah.
哇。
Woah.
哇。
Woah.
哇。
Woah.
哇。
Woah.
哇。
Woah.
哇哦。
Woah.
这到底该怎么收场呢？
How on earth is this gonna work out?
因为她怎么可能应对民粹右翼和日本政治的分裂呢？
Because how on earth is she gonna deal with the populist rights and the fracturing of Japanese politics?
而且
And
我们周一那期节目讨论的是银行里的声誉资本问题。
What we're talking about in the the episode we did on Monday, this thing about reputational currency in the bank.
所以你描述的是她当时声誉资本并不多的处境。
So what you're describing is a place where she didn't have that much reputational currency.
正如我周一说的，政客们通过赢得选举来获得巨大的声誉资本。
And as I said on Monday, where politicians get big reputational currency is by winning elections.
而她赢得的胜利非常巨大。
And she has won so big.
是的。
Yes.
没错。
Exactly.
所以让我稍微展开一下，与大多数评论员的预测相反，她表现得非常出色。
So let let me just sort of develop that, so so contrary to most of these pundits' predictions, she's killed it.
而且，你知道，当人们提到提前选举时，往往会想到马克龙。
And, again, you know, you you can imagine when people call snap elections, people have visions of Macron.
但她并没有像马克龙那样，在长期处于弱势地位的情况下操作。
But she didn't do it like Macron, having been in for a long time in a very weak position.
她行动得非常非常迅速。
She moved very, very quickly.
嗯。
Mhmm.
但你也指出了三个可能导致这次选举未能成功的原因。
But you've also pointed out three reasons why that election might not have worked.
这实际上做得非常出色。
It actually worked brilliantly.
好的。
Okay.
所以现在她说，我们面临的下一个问题是，报道此事的记者有时会觉得——我们可以分享一篇《纽约时报》的文章，这正是一个典型的例子。
So now she said, next problem that we have, which is that journalists writing about it find it sometimes if you I I we can share a New York Times article, which is a classic example of this.
他们对她是首位女性这一点感到非常兴奋。
They get very excited by the fact she's the first woman.
她会打重金属鼓，因此网上有很多关于她和韩国总统一起打鼓的梗。
She plays the heavy metal drums, so there's a lot of memes about her playing the drums with the South Korean president.
是的。
Yep.
还有很多以她形象制作的特别名人周边产品，围绕她也形成了一股潮流等等。
And there are lots of, special celebrity toys being made with her face, and there's a bit of a movement around her, etcetera.
因此，很多新闻报道都聚焦于个人特质，而没有提出我们在选举中通常会问的问题。
And so a lot of the journalism is quite personality driven, and it's not really asking the questions we normally ask in election.
每个选区到底发生了什么？
What actually happened district by district?
这个政党怎么可能从几乎成为少数派，一跃获得超级多数席位？
How is it possible for this party to go from basically being a minority to having a super majority?
反对派到底发生了什么？
What what on earth happened to the opposition?
年轻人的投票情况如何？
What's happening with this youth vote?
我的意思是，她本质上是个右翼传统主义者，反对移民。
I mean, she's kind of a right wing traditionalist anti immigration.
而年轻人
And then the young people
支持她。
come up.
另外，她所持的另一个立场——日本政客传统上一直非常谨慎避免靠近的——是军事化、国家认同和军队的问题。
And the other thing that she and again, a position that Japanese politicians traditionally have been very wary of getting too close to is actually the idea of militarization and national identity and the military.
她甚至就台湾问题对中国发难，这再次几乎没有进入选举辩论的讨论范围，但却具有重大意义，因为中国已经采取反制措施，禁止海鲜进口，并敦促中国民众不要前往日本旅游，而赴日游客中有五分之一是中国人。
And she even had a go at China over Taiwan, which, again, got very little sort of entrance into the the election debate, but has got massive significance because China has already retaliated, banning seafood, urging Chinese people not to go to Japan on holiday, and a fifth of all tourists to Japan are Chinese.
好的。
Okay.
那么，让我从中国的角度来谈谈。
So let me just give the Chinese perspective.
所以，我在周末花了几个小时，与一位来自中国大陆的人士进行了交流。
So I I I, over the weekend, spent a couple of hours with, somebody from Mainland China.
他强调说，公平地讲，我们学校教科书里有些是宣传内容，但有些是真实的信念。
And he was emphasizing he said, you know, to be fair, he said, look, some of this is propaganda in our school textbooks, but some this of this is genuine belief.
从中国的角度看，日本人入侵了满洲，入侵了中国，犯下了难以置信的暴行，杀害了数百万人。
The Japanese, from the Chinese point of view, invaded Manchuria, invaded China, committed unbelievable atrocities, killed millions of people.
战后，并没有真正进行去纳粹化，他们也没有恰当地道歉。
And after the war, there wasn't really a denazification, and they didn't apologize properly.
事实上，右翼政客——岸田就是一个很好的例子——继续参拜供奉战争团体的神社。
In fact, right wing politicians, of which Xi's a good example, continued to visit the shrine dedicated to war groups.
因此，从中国人的角度看，他们认为这是一个具有侵略性、民族主义和军国主义的国家，从未正视过其在二战期间的行为。
So from the Chinese point of view, they're looking at this, and they're saying, here is an aggressive nationalistic militarist power that has never come to terms with what they did during the Second World War.
而一个来自该派系的领导人却声称，习近平会为了台湾的利益而对抗中国，尽管台湾属于中国。
And here's a leader from that faction saying that Xi is going to fight on Taiwan's behalf against China when Taiwan belongs to China.
所以从中国人的角度来看，这一点在媒体报道中并未被捕捉到，中国确实有一种强烈的感受，他们看待日本的方式，可能就像欧洲人如果在二战后不久的1960年代突然看到一个重新军事化的德国时会有的反应。
So from the Chinese point of view, and this again isn't being picked up in the coverage, there's there's a real sense here from China that they're thinking about Japan in the way that maybe, I don't know, Europeans might have thought about a resurgent Germany if it had suddenly militarized in the nineteen sixties, not long after
战争结束之后。
the war.
我看看。
I look.
我觉得你说得对。
I I think you're right.
中国方面，说实话，这个播客我们也太少谈论亚洲了。
The China, I mean and and true to be fair, this podcast too, we don't talk enough about Asia.
但如果你看到中国共产党对本国公众说，请不要去日本。
But if you've got the Chinese Communist Party saying to the Chinese public, please don't go to Japan.
我们不再建议你去那里度假。
We don't recommend you go there for your holidays anymore.
很多人不会听从这个建议，这对经济将是一个重大打击。
A lot of people are not are gonna follow that, and that is a big hit on the economy.
如果我回到我的教授朋友蒂娜那里，她说她比撒切尔更值得信任的原因，是因为她已经推行的经济政策。
And if if I go back to my professor friend, Tina, the reason why she says that she's more trust than Thatcher is because of the economic policy that she is already pursuing.
所以她正在推行非常宽松的货币政策、大规模支出和减税。
So she's she's really going for very loose monetary policy, big spending, and cuts to tax.
她承诺大幅削减消费税。
So she's she's promising massive cuts in consumption taxes.
是的。
Yep.
同时，她还在谈论大幅增加支出。
And at the same time, she's talking about massive boosting or spending.
是的。
Yep.
而蒂娜，这位日本政治学教授，表示这给人一种可怕的‘夸滕迷你预算’的感觉。
And Tina, who's a professor of of Japanese politics, is saying, this has got a horrible feel of the trust Kuateng mini budget.
这里的一个问题是，我们已经多次讨论过这一点。
One of the questions here is we we've talked about this a lot.
日本的债务与GDP比率非常高。
The Japanese debt to GDP ratio is enormous.
规模。
Scale.
是的。
Yeah.
规模。
Of scale.
是的。
Yeah.
通常人们认为，这比在英国的情况要好一些，因为大部分债务由日本人持有。
And, normally, people say that that's less of a problem than it would be in The UK because a lot of it is owned by the Japanese Yeah.
有点像是内部事务。
Sort of internal things.
但这种做法是有极限的。
But there's a limit to that.
是的。
Yeah.
这很有趣。
And it's interesting.
市场对我们选举的反应是积极的，但会有很多人观望并问：日本经济究竟会走向何方？
The markets have responded positively to our election, but there will be many other people looking and saying, where on earth is the Japanese economy going?
日本经济真的、真的对世界至关重要。
The Japanese economy really, really matters the world.
最后最后一点想法。
Final final thought.
我认为我们需要密切关注这方面的地缘政治，这或许与我们听众的问题有关。
I think we need to watch carefully the geopolitics of this, and this maybe relates to the the question from our our listener.
因为她明显倾向于支持特朗普。
Because she is very clearly going pro Trump.
她将自己视为安倍晋三的忠实追随者。
She sees herself as a disciple very much of Shinsoo Abe
嗯。
Mhmm.
而特朗普非常欣赏他。
Who Trump liked a great deal.
她将采取更民族主义的立场对抗中国。
She will be taking a more nationalistic line against China.
我们真的必须密切关注宪法这一问题。
We really have to watch this question on the constitution.
她会修改宪法吗？
Is she gonna change the constitution?
因为她很可能办得到，如果你愿意这么说的话。
Because she she probably will be able to, if you will.
让日本成为一个完全军事化的强国。
To allow Japan to become a fully militaristic power.
如果是这样，这将是一个巨大的变化，因为几十年来，日本一直是在美国安全保护下的和平主义经济强国。
And if so, this is the big change because for decades now, Japan was pacifist economic powerhouse under American security umbrella.
如果她将日本转变为一个更具主动性、更军事化的半自主国家，那么我认为我们将进入一个完全不同的世界。
If she shifts it to an assertive, more militarized nation state, semi autonomous, then I think we're in a very different world.
是的。
Yeah.
我认为，她部分采取的另一项措施是针对极右翼政党，采取了非常强硬的移民政策。
The the other thing that she was doing partly, I think, to to deal with this far right party was very, very strong line on immigration.
当然，与大多数发达经济体相比，日本的移民数量并不多。
Now, of course, compared to most of the developed economies, Japan doesn't have that many.
非常少。
Very few.
说实话，只有一些库尔德人住在一些城镇里。
Seriously, they they there's a few Kurds living in some towns.
嗯，它们的增长幅度比那还要稍高一点。
Well, they've gone they've gone up slightly more than that.
她在家乡奈良声称看到一名游客殴打了一头鹿
Claims in her hometown of Nara that she saw a tourist punch a deer
在鹿园里。
in the deer box.
我知道。
I know.
但根本没有任何证据支持这件事。
And there was never any evidence of it at all.
所以她的沟通方式中带有一点——我不会点出那位DJT先生的名字——但确实有那么一点特朗普主义的色彩。
So she's got a little bit of I'm not going to mention the DJT guy, but a little bit of Trumpism to her communication.
但事实上，日本，我的意思是，我们多年来一直谈论的关于日本的一个故事，就是它在人口老龄化方面远远走在我们前面。
But the truth is, Japan, I mean, what's one of the stories that we talked about Japan for years and years and years and years is way ahead of us, the aging population.
日本的中位年龄大约是51岁。
Median age Japan, about 51.
英国的中位年龄约为40岁。
Median age in Britain, about 40.
欧洲的中位年龄高于英国。
Median age in in Europe, higher than Britain.
但当你说到尼日利亚这样的地方时，中位年龄只有16岁，这能让人有个概念。
But by the time you get down to somewhere like Nigeria, it's 16, to give a sense of
是的。
Yeah.
那你觉得尼日利亚最令人印象深刻的统计数据是什么？
Well, then what's your favorite Nigerian stat?
到2050年，全球每十个出生的孩子中就有一个将在尼日利亚出生。
One in ten children born in the world will be born in Nigeria by 2050.
是的。
Yeah.
我之所以一直让你重复这一点，是因为如果我能活到2050年，我们会不会再回来看看那时的情况？
The reason why I keep asking you to repeat that is if I live to twenty fifty, are we gonna we gonna come back and see what
那是？
that is?
事实上，所有人口预测都总是错误的。
It's it's also it's also true that all demographic projections are always wrong.
是的。
Yeah.
没错。
Exactly.
我的意思是，确实如此。
I mean I I but also, I mean, yeah.
我的意思是，我们以后再详细讨论这个问题。
I mean, we need to talk about that in more more detail some other time.
所以你面临着一个老龄化的人口。
And and so you've got this aging population.
他们都活得很长。
They're all living a very, long time.
但她却说不再多了。
And yet she's saying no more.
你知道，我们要减少移民。
You know, we're gonna cut back on immigration.
像我们一样，他们也将需要
Like us, they're going to need
移民。
immigration.
正如你所指出的，这显然不仅仅是他们非常健康、饮食良好。
And as you point out, it's it's obviously not just that they're very healthy and eating good food.
更重要的是，他们根本不再生育孩子。
It's also they're just not having any children.
这对韩国来说是个问题。
And that's a problem for South Korea.
我认为，韩国的平均每个家庭的孩子数量现在已经降至大约0.3个。
South Korea, I think, know, the average fam number of children is now getting down to about point three per family.
我知道。
I know.
所以人口正在崩溃，而且没有移民流入。
So there's just demographic collapse and no immigration coming.
是的。
Yeah.
我们迟早应该讨论一下人口问题，但你看，法国政府正在给每一位29岁的人写信，基本上就是在说：赶紧行动吧。
Just on on the we should do a thing on demography at some point, but you see that the French are right the government are writing to every 29 year old, basically saying, get on with it.
现在就生孩子吧。
Have kids now.
你对维克托·欧尔班的政策怎么看？
What do you think about Victor Orban's policy?
我的意思是，这挺有意思的。
I mean, it's quite interesting.
对吧？
Right?
他说，任何生了三个孩子的女性都可以免缴所得税。
He's saying that anyone any woman who has three children is exempt from income tax.
现在任何生了两个孩子的女性都可以免缴所得税。
Now any woman who has two children exempt from income tax.
这显然很有吸引力，如果你在想，我是不是该生第二个、第三个孩子，是的。
It's presumably quite you know, if you were wondering, am I gonna have a second child, third child Yeah.
一生都免缴所得税？
Being exempt from income tax your whole life?
这相当不错。
That's pretty good.
我们即将迎来选举，我不禁怀疑，这是否正是他突然说要给父母更多资金的原因。
We've got an election coming up, and I wonder if that might be why he's suddenly saying, let's give some more money to parents.
是的。
Yeah.
现在，南霍尔的约瑟芬，英国进步派政治家能从葡萄牙总统选举中学到什么教训？关于民间社会如何动员，以及跨党派精英如何协调以对抗反民主运动。
Now Josephine in Southall, what lessons can progressive British politicians draw from the Portuguese presidential election about how civil society can mobilize and cross party elites can coordinate to counter anti democratic movements.
这与总统选举有关，而总统选举不同于议会选举。
And this relates to the the presidential election, which is not the same as a parliamentary election.
我认为这里涉及大量需要厘清的内容，比如左右翼、极右翼与进步派之间的斗争，但从英国的角度来看，这更多不是关于政治体制，而是其他方面。
I think this is there is a lot to unbundle here in terms of left right, far right progressive battles, but I think from the British perspective, this isn't much about political systems as anything else.
这是总统制的第二轮投票，第一轮中任何人都可以参选，得票最高的两人进入下一轮。
This is the second round of a presidential system where in the first round anybody can stand and the top two go through.
事情是这样的：极右翼人士文图拉，曾是一名体育电视评论员，相当于葡萄牙的加里·莱因克尔，他在六七年前创立了‘够了’党，并对葡萄牙政治产生了巨大影响。
What's happened is that the far right guy Ventura, who was a former sports TV commentator, the kind of Gary Lineker of Portugal, he founded this Chega party in, six, seven years ago and has made a huge impact upon Portuguese politics.
但发生的情况是，当他进入第二轮后，出现了大规模的动员行动。
But what's happened is that having got into the second round, there has been this mobilization.
这相当于英国的情况：我们常说，我们的两党制正逐渐演变为四党、五党甚至六党制，但如果我们的议会选举变成这样——先看看谁支持战争，然后得票最高的两人，比如斯塔默和法拉奇，进入下一轮对决。
So the equivalent for Britain would be if in our we've said often what's what we've known as a two party system becoming a four, five, six party system is if rather than having our parliamentary elections, you had in the next election, let's see who who votes for the war, and then the top to let's say the top two is Stammer and Farage, they go through.
完全正确。
Absolutely.
而且这完全是
And that's So it's a totally
不同的制度。
different system.
更容易看到人们联合起来反对它。
It's much easier to see people allying against it.
没错。
Exactly.
所以我认为积极的一面——也就是我们问题所指向的——是相当有趣的，因为天主教会站出来支持左翼总统候选人。
So I I think the positive story, which is what our question is pushing, is it's rather interesting because what happened is that the Catholic church came out, for the left wing presidential candidate.
许多右翼政治人物也站出来反对极右翼。
Quite a lot of right wing politicians came out against the far right.
于是出现了一个美好的故事：人们建立了一道防火墙，以排除极右翼候选人。
So there was a sort of nice story of people creating a kind of firewall to exclude the far right candidate.
他确实是个极右翼候选人。
And boy, is he a far right candidate.
我的意思是，他在选举期间的海报上写着：这不是孟加拉国。
I mean, his posters during the election were, this is not Bangladesh.
对吧？
Right?
这是他竞选海报的一个关键例子。
This is a key key example of his posters.
但正如我们之前所说，两年前，人们还在谈论伊比利亚例外论，认为葡萄牙和西班牙 somehow 免受民粹主义影响。
But but but as we said before, two years ago, people were still talking about the Iberian exception, the idea that Portugal and Spain were somehow immune to populism.
这位极右翼人士，‘这不是孟加拉国’——如今他已获得超过30%的选票。
This guy on the far right, this is not Bangladesh, over 30% of the vote now.
这是相当大的票数。
That's a big vote.
他的得票率几乎与基尔·斯塔默在英国上一次选举中的得票率相当。
His vote share is basically the same as Kirstjarma got in the last election in Britain.
这是一股强大的政治力量。
So this is a huge political force.
他从零开始，如今已赢得议会约50个席位。
He's taken it from zero to, I think, 50 seats in parliament.
不。
No.
我明白了。
I I I see.
我 wondering，约瑟芬的问题是否隐含着一种想法，即这表明人们可以团结起来对抗他们。
I I wonder whether in Josephine's question is the thinking that this shows you can come together and fight them off.
在其中一些情况下，确实如此。
Now on one of them, it does.
显然，公众的意识非常强烈。
And there was obviously a lot of public awareness.
在其中一次选举中，有不少保守派投票给社会党人，目的是阻止他获胜。
There's a you had quite a lot of conservatives voting for the socialist to stop Yeah.
切·格瓦拉，是的。
Che Gueger Yeah.
阻止文图拉获胜。
Stop Ventura winning.
但我并不确定除此之外还有什么更多内容。
But I'm not sure there's much beyond that.
我同意你的评估。
I agree with your assessment.
这表明，在一个不久前还是法西斯主义国家的国家里——别忘了这一点——我们看到这种情况，或许我们不应该对这一切抱有过于乐观的看法。
This shows that actually in a country that not long ago, former fascist country, don't forget, that we we see this maybe we shouldn't be too rose tinted about this.
这有点像一种警示信号，我认为更多的是如此。
This is a little bit of a I think it's a warning sign as much as anything else.
它确实表明，如果进步力量团结起来抗争，他们可以获胜，但同时也表明这些势力正在崛起。
It does show if progressive forces get together and fight, they can win, but it also shows that these guys are are on the rise.
也许我们接下来还有两场选举。
Maybe that's two elections we've got.
我们不妨下星期再回来，聊聊泰国的情况？
We may let why don't we come back next week and and talk a little bit about Thailand?
很好。
Lovely.
因为那又是另一场大型选举。
Because that's another huge election.
而且，当然，要拆解这一场会更久，因为那里的斗争未必是选票箱里的斗争。
And, of course, longer to unbundle that one because the battle there is not necessarily the battle of the ballot box.
而是之后与王室相关的事情，
It's what happens after with the monarchy and
好的。
Okay.
那我们就这么办吧。
Well, let let let's do that.
让我稍微换个轻松一点、快一点的节奏，因为我们已经讨论了相当多严肃深入的地缘政治内容。
And let me, maybe, to to bring a lighter, quicker tone, because we've done quite a lot of serious in-depth geopolitical stuff.
罗里，体育没那么严肃。
Rory, sports not serious.
是的。
Yeah.
好了。
There we are.
来自圣地亚哥的亚历克斯的问题。
Question from Alex in San Diego.
冬奥会是否表明，体育是目前唯一能让我们感觉良好的事情？
Is the Winter Olympics a sign sport is the only thing that can make us feel good right now?
对你来说是这样吗？
Now is that true for you?
目前这是否是你感觉良好的唯一原因？
Is that the only thing that makes you feel good at the moment?
现在有很多事情让我感到糟糕，但我一个都不会提。
Well, there's a lot of things right now making me feel bad, neither of which I'm going to mention.
不过我可以告诉你，来试试看。
But I'll I have you here's a go.
你看过任何冬奥会比赛吗？
Have you watched any of the Winter Olympic?
没有。
No.
我真的很遗憾，因为我滑雪。
And I'm really so because I ski.
我会狂热地滑雪。
I'm gonna ski obsessively.
我对冬季运动完全着迷，所以我特别喜欢看滑雪。
I'm completely obsessed with winter sport, so I love watching skiing.
好吧，我看了，我告诉你我都看了些什么。
Well, I've I've watched I'll tell you what I've watched so far.
我看了开幕式，丹尼·博伊尔的开幕式永远无人能超越。
I watched the opening ceremony, which Danny Boyle will never ever be beaten.
2012年伦敦奥运会的开幕式是历史上最好的开幕式，但米兰-科尔蒂纳的开幕式也非常精彩。
London twenty twelve were the best opening ceremony of all time, but the Milan Cortina opening ceremony was terrific.
真的非常好。
It was really, really good.
展开剩余字幕（还有 480 条）
实际上相当感人，演讲也很动人。
It was actually quite moving, and the speeches were moving.
有点长，要是能用坎贝尔的红笔删减一下就好了，但内容不错。
A bit long, could have done with a good, you know, Campbell red pen through them, but they were good.
他们的信息是关于这个世界的巨大分裂。
And their message was about this, about there's so much division in the world.
世界上有太多的仇恨。
There's so much hatred.
体育能够将我们团结在一起。
Sport can bring us together.
体育就是关于这个，这个，这个，这个。
Sport's about this, this, this, this.
很不错。
It was good.
当然，JD·万斯在观众席中，这一点我觉得很有深意。
And, of course, the fact that JD Vance was in the audience was, you know, I think it was pointed.
还有另一个时刻，注意我没提他的老板。
And the other the other moment, notice I'm not mentioning his boss.
当美国队入场时，当晚最响亮的欢呼，毫无疑问，是献给乌克兰队的。
When the American team came in, the loudest cheer of the evening, bar none, was for the Ukrainian team.
乌克兰队入场时，场面非常感人。
The Ukrainian team came in, and it was really moving.
整个场馆都彻底沸腾了。
The whole place went absolutely crazy.
人们对美国队的欢呼已经很热烈，随后直播镜头转向了JD万斯和他的妻子，嘘声随即响起。
They went pretty wild for the American team, and then the feed the live feed camera panned to JD Vance and his wife, and the booing started.
镜头立刻切开了。
And they cut away instantly.
后来才得知，其中一家美国电视台——被那些正在毁灭世界的可怕科技寡头控制的电视台之一——把现场的嘘声给消音了。我另一个最爱的万斯故事是，一位美国运动员，一位滑冰选手，正如我们在体育界所说的，被寄予夺金厚望。
And it then transpires that one of these American TV stations, one of the ones that's been taken over by these awful tech oligarchs that are destroying the world, They they dubbed out the sound of the the My other favorite Van story is one an American athlete, a skater, who was, as we say in the sports world, tipped for gold.
她最终获得了银牌。
She she got silver.
我认为原因在于，她差点错过了比赛起点，因为她被一支由40辆车组成的车队堵在了米兰的路上，那支车队正运送着JD·万斯。
And I think the reason was that it turns out she was almost missed the start because she was held up by this 40 car convoy ferrying JD Vance around Milan.
40辆车。
40 cars.
这让他失去了金牌。
He cost him the gold.
这可不太好。
That's not good.
是的。
Yeah.
所以我想，我不知道他是不是真的这样，但我就是这么说的。
So I think, well, I don't know if he did, but I'm saying he did.
作为一个热爱这一切的人，我真正想做的就是住在山里，住在阿尔卑斯山，待在高海拔地区滑雪。
And the there's there's as somebody who is, who loves this stuff, I I really, all I want to do is live in the mountains and live in the Alps and be at altitude and ski.
好的。
Okay.
但就这一点来说，你滑雪吗？
But just on that, so you ski.
你喜欢滑雪，而且
You like skiing, and
你的家人不只是喜欢，而是非常热爱。
your family's Not not not not just like it.
我其实滑雪技术还不错。
I'm I'm actually reasonably good at it.
我曾经参加过这类项目的团队。
I was actually in teams for this kind of thing.
或者当你拍摄的时候，当你拍摄
Or when you film when you film
当你
when you
拍摄的其余部分都是滑雪。
film the rest is skiing.
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
你能看出来。
You can see that.
是的。
Yeah.
但我想问你一下。
But let me ask you this, though.
对。
Yeah.
那你为什么不喜欢看呢？
Why then do you not enjoy and like watching?
我这辈子从来没滑过雪。
I've never skied in my life.
是的。
Yeah.
但我喜欢观看滑雪者的样子。
But I like watching the of the skiers.
所以昨晚，我在看这项运动。
So last night, I was watching this sport.
我甚至不知道这些滑雪者所在的这项运动叫什么。
I don't even know what you call this sport, where these skiers were.
它就像一个障碍赛。
It was like an obstacle course.
他们跳上跳下管子，顺着管子滑下，还做了一些这样的动作。
They were jumping onto jumping onto tubes and skiing down those and doing these sort of
这是自由式吗？
This is a freestyle?
我觉得这不仅仅是自由式，因为还有各种障碍和其他东西。
I think it was more than freestyle because it was like barriers and all sorts of stuff.
这简直就像障碍赛马。
It's almost like show jumping.
我另一个喜欢冬奥会的地方是，当运动员在山上比赛时，观众相对较少，因为那里很难到达，也无法建设完善的基础设施。
The other thing I love about the Winter Olympics is that when they're out on the mountain, you know, it's there are relatively small crowds because it's very hard to get to and you can't build the infrastructure.
但这些运动员滑下来时，他们的家人就在那里。
But it's these athletes, they come down and then their family are there.
哦，这太美好了。
Oh, it's so lovely.
正是这一点让它如此特别，我不确定。
It's just what the brilliant The other thing that makes it so unusual is I don't know.
我的意思是，也许还有其他运动也是这样。
I mean, maybe there are other sports like this.
但比如在自由式滑雪中，当你从山顶一路滑到山底，如果你是第九个滑下赛道的人，整个赛道都会被彻底改变，因为你通常是在未被触碰的新雪上滑行。
But, particularly on freestyle, for example, when you're coming from the very, very top of the mountain down to the bottom, if you're the ninth person down the course, the course is completely transposed because you're you're skiing generally for freestyle on Virgin powder.
未经踩踏的厚雪。
Untouched thick snow.
真雪？
Real snow?
真雪。
Real snow.
是的。
Yeah.
所以，如果你是最早滑下来的那几个人，你得想办法在雪地上找到适合你跳跃、风格和优雅动作的路线。
So if you're and and if you're the first couple of people down, and you're you're trying to get lines for your line, for your jumps, your style, your elegance.
如果你是第一个滑下来的人，你可以从悬崖边缘一跃而下。
If you're the first person down, you can fly off the edge of a cliff.
你落在全新的雪地上，然后可以在其中做出一连串优美的转弯。
You land in fresh stuff, and then you can do a beautiful series of turns through that.
如果你是第六个滑下来的人，已经有三个人在那儿落过地了。
If you're number six, three people have already landed there.
那片雪已经被破坏了。
That's wrecked.
你得去找山上的另一片区域滑下来。
You're gonna have to find another bit of the mountain to come down.
你得穿过他们的滑痕之类的。
You're gonna to cross their tracks, etcetera.
或者如果你看回转或大回转比赛，确实也是如此，你会看到雪道变得越来越硬，转弯处的雪痕也越来越锐利。
Or if you watch Slalom or Giant Slalom, it's true too, you'll see that it is getting icier and icier, and the cuts around the fries are getting sharper
越来越锐利。
and sharper.
类似的情况是，如果你打测试板球，你的策略中会考虑五天内球道的状态及其变化。
Something similar is the fact if you're playing test cricket, that part of your calculation is the state of the pitch over five days and how it develops.
但这是一个很好的观点。
But now that's a good point.
但每次我们之前谈论体育时，你都说你对体育毫无兴趣，因为你根本觉得你不是在进行体育运动。
But whenever we've talked about sport before, you've said basically said you've got no interest in sport because you you think it's almost like you don't think that you're doing sport.
你只是在滑雪。
You're doing skiing.
对我来说，体育就是看人们竞技。
Sport to me is watching people in competition.
是的。
Yeah.
我的意思是，如果我在酒吧吃午饭时能看人滑雪，我会很开心。
I I mean, I I'm I'm happy if I'm having lunch in a in a bar to watch people ski.
我喜欢看滑雪，而且能从他们身上学习。
I love to watch skiing, and I'm learning from them.
基本上，我观看是为了学习技巧。
Basically, I watch it in order to learn technique.
我对学习感兴趣，因为我对他们的身体倾斜角度感兴趣。
I'm interested in learning because I'm interested in their angulation.
我对他们的重心转移感兴趣。
Interested in their weight transfer.
这个周末我们要去参加慕尼黑安全会议。
We're going to, the Munich Security Conference for the weekend.
滑雪坡没那么远
The ski slope's not that far
了。
away.
我确实不会那样做。
I I wouldn't indeed be doing that.
好吧，我们得拍点这个的视频。
Well, we gotta get a film with this.
如果你说我会引用你的话。
If you you said I will quote what you said.
你说过，我其实很擅长这个。
You said, I'm really quite good at it.
如果你想要，我可以给你看一段我在南极滑雪的视频。
I can give you a shot of me skiing in Antarctica if you want.
哦。
Oh.
是的
Yeah.
你可以看到我在南极滑雪的样子。
You can see me skiing on the South Pole.
是的
Yeah.
太棒了。
Excellent.
是的
Yeah.
说到极地，我有三个插头。
Talking of poles, I've got three plugs.
第一个是关于极地的。
The first is about poles.
你昨天在做你那些事的时候，我录了一个迷你剧，主角就是我提过的那本关于北极的书的作者。
It's a while you were doing whatever you're doing yesterday, I recorded a miniseries with the guy whose book I mentioned about the Arctic.
这真的非常有趣。
It's really, really interesting.
我认为第一集将在周五播出。
I think the first episode's out on Friday.
太好了。
Great.
一个叫肯尼思·R的人。
A guy called Kenneth R.
罗森，一个非常有趣、古怪的角色，我真的很享受制作过程，学到了很多。
Rosen, very interesting, very quirky character, really good, really enjoyed it doing it, learned a lot.
希望我们的听众和观众也能学到很多。
Hope our listeners and viewers will learn a lot.
第二个推荐是现任负责人杰里米·弗莱明，GCHQ。
Second plug is the current leading, Jeremy Fleming, GCHQ.
第三个推荐，罗伊，你拿到肖莎娜的情人节卡片了吗？
Third plug, Roy, have you got Shoshana Valentine's Day card yet?
哦，不。
Oh, no.
如果你在这方面有好的推荐。
If you got a good recommendation on that.
嗯，据说对吧？
Well, apparently Yeah?
你可以购买Tripp Plus会员资格，不行。
You can get you can buy Tripp Plus membership No.
作为情人节礼物。
As a Valentine's present.
你只需访问restispolitics.com，点击礼品选项。
You just go to the rest is politics.com and click gifts.
这正是昨天在地铁上拦住我的那位女士的完美礼物。
And this is a perfect present for the woman who stopped me on the tube yesterday.
她说我男朋友很喜欢你的播客。
Said my boyfriend loves your podcast.
我说，那就给他买这个该死的会员吧。
I said, well, get him the bloody membership.
你知道你和我这个情人节要去哪儿吗？
Do you know where you and I are spending Valentine's Day?
慕尼黑安全会议。
The Munich Security Conference.
这事儿到底怎么搞？
How the where is this going?
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
没错。
Exactly.
是的。
Yeah.
那就是我们要去的地方。
That's where we're gonna be.
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
这会给我们带来一个浪漫的时刻。
It's gonna get our romantic a romantic moment.
慕尼黑安全会议，没有什么比慕尼黑更浪漫的了。
The Munich Security Conference, nothing quite as romantic as Munich.
是的。
Yeah.
不知道慕尼黑安全会议会不会有那种奇怪的德国巧克力配鲜花。
Wonder if the Munich Security Conference is gonna have weird sort of German chocolates with flowers
在 I
on I
我打赌他们会的。
bet they will.
我打赌他们会的。
I bet they will.
总之，我们休息一下，之后我还想在休息后做一些文化推广。
Anyway, let's take a break, and then there's some cultural plugging I'd like to do after the break too.
太好了。
Excellent.
但我们得做大兔子。
But we have to do big bunny.
好的。
Okay.
很好。
Great.
休息结束后见。
See you after the break.
很快见。
See you soon.
现在让我们短暂暂停一下播客，介绍一下我们的赞助商 NordVPN。
Now just a quick pause in the podcast to mention our sponsor, NordVPN.
二月是习惯重新占据主导的时候。
So February is when routines take over.
我们重新开始在线上做正经事，但选择的是一些方便而非谨慎的场所。
We drift back into doing serious things online, but in places that are convenient rather than careful.
车站、咖啡馆、酒店，这些地方让你的数据安全风险悄然回升。
Stations, cafes, hotels, moments where the margin for error with your data quietly creeps back in.
这正是 NordVPN 设计来填补的空白。
That's exactly the gap NordVPN is designed to close.
它隐藏你的网络足迹，让你在公共网络上工作或旅行时，信息不会暴露在外。
It hides your Internet footprint, so when you're working or traveling on public networks, your information is not left exposed.
NordVPN 还包含威胁防护 Pro 功能，它就像一个隐形的网络安全卫士，默默阻止恶意链接并检查下载内容，尤其在二月非常有用，因为那时收件箱里会塞满报销单、半期旅行和票务确认信息。
NordVPN also includes Threat Protection Pro, which acts like a cyber bodyguard that quietly helps block malicious links and checks downloads, particularly useful in February when inboxes fill up with expense claims, half term travel, and ticket confirmations.
它不会改变你使用互联网的方式。
It doesn't change how you use the Internet.
它只是消除了‘默认一切安全’的假设。
It simply removes the assumption that everything is safe by default.
一个 NordVPN 账户可覆盖最多十台设备，或者安装在路由器上，保护整个家庭网络。
One NordVPN account covers up to 10 devices or install it on your router and protect the whole household.
要获得 NordVPN 计划的最优惠折扣，请访问 nordvpn.com/restispolitics。
To get the best discount on your NordVPN plan, go to nordvpn.com/restispolitics.
选择两年计划可额外免费获得四个月，并享有三十天无条件退款保证。
You'll get four extra months free on the two year plan plus a thirty day money back guarantee.
链接在节目描述中。
The link is in the episode description.
本集节目由 Aura Frames 赞助播出。
This episode is brought to you by Aura Frames.
母亲节快到了，而一个Aura相框，我认为是比加油站买来的普通康乃馨更合适的礼物。
Now it's Mother's Day coming up, and an Aura frame is what I'd call a proper upgrade from the usual Mother's Day flowers from the gas station.
花通常只能撑三天，罗里，平均来说。
Now flowers only last three days, Rory, on average.
没错。
Exactly.
这个不会。
This doesn't.
这是一款很棒的相框，但它的特别之处在于照片会自动轮换。
This is a wonderful photo frame, but it's a photo frame where the photographs change.
在发货前，你可以提前上传好家庭照片。
You preload it with family photos before it ships.
它送达时已经装满了这些珍贵回忆，而且你可以随时随地继续添加新照片。
It arrives already full of all those memories, and you can keep adding those photos from anywhere.
你把它挂起来，我们家就有一个，真的非常温馨，因为一整天都能看到这些高清美照缓缓播放。
You put it up, we've got one at home, and it's really lovely because you see all these beautiful high definition images scrolling through throughout the day.
所以Aura相框每次都是完美的礼物。
So Aura Frames is the perfect gift every time.
限时优惠，通过访问auraframes.co.uk，购买Aura最畅销的Carvamatte相框可立减35英镑，使用促销代码politics结账即可享受，该款相框被《独立报》评为最佳相框。
And for a limited time, on that perfect gift by visiting auraframes.co.uk to get £35 off Aura's best selling Carvamatte frames, Name the top frame by The Independent by using promo code politics at checkout.
就是auraframes.co.uk，促销代码是politics。
That's auraframes.co.uk, promo code politics.
此优惠仅限听众专享，立即下单，确保赶在母亲节前收到。
The deal is exclusive to listeners, so order yours now to get it in time for Mother's Day.
现在，让我们短暂暂停一下播客，介绍一下我们的赞助商NordVPN。
Now just a quick pause in the podcast to mention our sponsor, NordVPN.
现在是二月，这一年终于不再只是空谈了。
We're in February, and that is the month when the year stops being theoretical.
美好的愿望变成了具体的系统、账户、密码、付款，生活又开始几乎不间断地通过登录界面运转。
Good intentions turn into systems, accounts, passwords, payments, and life starts running through logins again almost without pause.
这感觉完全正常，但也令人精疲力尽。
And it feels completely normal, and it's also exhausting.
所以你每天都在不断输入这些敏感信息。
So there you are whacking in all this sensitive information day after day.
这不过是日常生活中再普通不过的一部分。
It's simply as part of your everyday life.
NordVPN 在后台安静运行，在你上网时保护你的数据。
NordVPN works quietly in the background, protects your data as you get on with life online.
它在不打扰你的前提下提供隐私保护，加密你的所有操作，并隐藏你的位置。
It adds privacy without asking for constant attention, encrypting what you do, and keeping your location private.
我们根本无法形容，如果你的敏感信息、密码和位置暴露在外，会有多大的危险。
And we can't begin to tell you how much danger there is if you start having sensitive information and passwords and locations out there.
而 NordVPN 提供的隐私保护，最有效的方式就是内置集成。
And privacy, as provided by NordVPN, tends to work best when it's built in.
一个 NordVPN 账户可覆盖十台设备，或者你也可以安装在路由器上，一次性保护整个家庭网络。
One NordVPN account covers to 10 devices, or you can install it on your router and protect your entire home network in one go.
要获得 NordVPN 计划的最优惠折扣，请访问 nordvpn.com/restispolitics。
To get the best discount on your NordVPN plan, go to nordvpn.com/restispolitics.
选择两年计划，您将免费获得四个月，外加30天无条件退款保证。
You'll get four extra months free on the two year plan, plus a thirty day money back guarantee.
链接在本集的描述中。
The link's in the episode description.
欢迎回到《不安的政治问答时间》，我是罗里·斯图尔特。
Welcome back to the Restless Politics Question Time with me, Rory Stewart.
我是大兔子。
And me, Big Bunny.
是的。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
没错。
Well, that's right.
正如爱丽丝提到的，他通常会取笑我对流行文化一无所知，这一点你可能已经注意到了。
As Alice has picked up, generally, what he does, as you might have noticed, is mock me about my incredible ignorance of popular culture.
但我们的大多数听众都会因为他说‘Bad Bunny’为‘Big Bunny’而暗自发笑。
But most of our listeners will be sniggering at the fact that he calls Bad Bunny, Big Bunny.
在我们开始之前，让我们来回答一个问题，这是来自凯瑟琳和威尔的提问。
Before we go, let's get I have the question because this was from Catherine and the Wirral.
他对Bad Bunny超级碗表演的道歉意味着什么？
What could apologizes love for a Bad Bunny Super Bowl performance?
他对爱、社区和欢乐的庆祝，与Name Deleted及其盟友的反应形成了鲜明对比，后者的反应显得如此可悲和无力。
His celebration of love, community, and joy stands in stark contrast to the divisiveness and negativity of Name Deleted and his allies whose responses to the show looked so pathetic and weak by comparison.
我看了Bad Bunny的表演。
I watched Bad Bunny.
你看了吗？
Did you watch him?
没有。
No.
我只在新闻里看了片段。
I watched a bit on the news.
就这样了。
That's it.
但我真的从来没对NFL感兴趣过。
But I I've I've never got into NFL.
这真是太棒了。
That's pretty amazing.
孩子们。
Boys.
其中一个奇怪的地方是，如果你在YouTube上看，而这是由Apple Music赞助的超级碗，他们除了西班牙语字幕外，根本不提供其他字幕，除非你开启自动字幕功能。
One of the weird things is if you watch it on YouTube, and it's, you know, it's Apple Music sponsored, Super Bowl, they don't offer anything other than Spanish subtitles unless you select the auto subtitle function.
所以他用西班牙语演唱。
And so he's singing in Spanish.
你能明白为什么特朗普完全措手不及了。
I mean, you can see why Trump was completely thrown off balance.
我的意思是，首先，整个表演都是用西班牙语进行的，除非像我一样依赖自动字幕，否则你根本听不懂他在唱什么。
I mean, firstly, the whole thing's in Spanish, you've got no idea at all what he's saying unless, like me, you're trying to rely on the auto stuff.
索莎娜的西班牙语不错，但她也听不懂一半的歌词。
Shoshana, her Spanish is good, but she couldn't follow half these lyrics.
一亿三千五百万观众。
A 135,000,000 viewers.
这是超级碗中场秀中最大的一场之一
It's one of the biggest Super Bowl half
这比其他政治事件还大吗？
Is that bigger than the rest of politics?
从来都是。
Ever.
它比其他政治事件还大。
It's bigger than the rest politics.
比我们还大。
Bigger than us.
比我们还大。
Bigger than us.
是的。
Yeah.
它更大。
It's bigger.
巴德·邦尼比我们更伟大。
Bad Bunny is bigger than us.
而且我不我不想惹恼那1.35亿观众。
And and I don't I don't wanna annoy any of the 135,000,000 viewers.
但把这首歌描述为纯粹庆祝什么？
But to describe that song as purely a celebration of what was it?
社区。
Community
喜悦与爱。
Joy and love.
喜悦与爱。
Joy and love.
也许对年轻听众来说，这时候该关掉了，但这是一种非凡的形式。
Maybe this is a time to turn off for for younger listeners, but it's an extraordinary form.
他大部分时间都双手捂着胯部，向前旋转，周围是大量穿着短裙、裙摆高高扬起的出色拉丁舞者。
It's where he's spending most of his time clutching his crotch and rotating in front with an enormous number of surrounded by incredible Latino dancers, most of whom have got their skirts in the air.
我的意思是，这远远不止是对社区和世界和平的庆祝。
Mean, the the I mean, it it this is this is much more than just a celebration of community and community and world peace.
我看到和听到的评论中，有一位《滚石》杂志的记者说，这是你见过的最令人着迷的现场演出。
The reviews I saw and heard, I heard a guy from Rolling Stone magazine saying it was the most mesmerizing live show you'd ever seen.
我觉得我见过各种各样的人。
I think I've seen all sorts of people.
我一位游泳伙伴丹，今天早上给我看了一段视频，我要去看看脚本。
One of my fellow swimmers, Dan, he showed me he showed me a video this morning of I'm gonna look at the script.
是Bad还是Big？
Was it Bad or Big?
我再把Big的部分看一遍。
I'll get the Big stuff again.
坏小子Bad Buddy表演时，所有背景音乐和电子设备都崩溃了。
Bad buddy a Bad Buddy performing when all the backing music collapsed, all the electronic stuff collapsed.
老实说，听起来就像我在浴缸里的声音。
And it was honestly it sounded like me at the bath.
太糟糕了。
It was terrible.
那他的嗓音好吗？
So has he got a good voice?
还是说歌词本身？
Or is it the word?
就像Eminem那样吗？
Is it like Eminem?
是歌词本身出色吗？
Is it the words that are good?
我觉得他的嗓音很有意思，但我觉得是整个表演的效果。
I think his voice is interesting, but I think it's the whole picture.
这是整体的，我的意思是，这些歌讲的是名人。
It's the whole I think I mean, it's it's about the songs are about celebrity.
它们讲的是女朋友。
They're about girlfriends.
它们讲的是爱情。
They're about love.
它们讲的是波多黎各。
They're about Puerto Rico.
它们讲的是身为拉丁裔。
They're about being a Latino.
它们讲的是其他人想成为拉丁裔却无法做到。
They're about the fact that other people want to be Latino, can't be Latino.
我的意思是，这整个就是对文化的宣言。
I mean, it's a whole statement about culture.
而且
And
还有关于波多黎各。
And about Puerto Rico.
是的。
Yeah.
我现在要违背我的承诺了。
And I'm gonna break my promise now.
我的意思是，想到美国总统坐在椭圆形办公室里，或者他在任何地方，准备说这太糟糕了。
I mean, the thought of the president of The United States sitting, watching in the Oval Office or wherever he was ready to say this is terrible.
因为我在之前听到的所有铺垫都说，这家伙真的要针对特朗普，因为他支持了移民与海关执法局。
Because the buildup all the buildup I heard was this guy was really gonna go for Trump because he's gone for ICE.
他说他们很糟糕。
He said they're terrible.
他不是为了关心穷人而反对这些州。
He's not truing the states because he's worried about poor people.
但他并没有。
And he didn't.
而且他似乎没有。
And he seemingly didn't.
他做了。
He did.
他唯一做的就是
The only thing he
说了一句‘上帝保佑美国’，然后列出了所有国家。
did is he said, god bless America, and then he listed all the countries.
美国，我还以为笑话是他会说厄瓜多尔、巴拉圭、哥斯达黎加，然后跳到加拿大。
America, and I thought the joke was gonna be he was gonna go Ecuador, Paraguay, Costa Rica, then jump to Canada.
但实际上，他把美国和所有国家都包括进去了。
But, actually, he included The United States and the whole thing.
对。
Right.
但特朗普随后说，这太糟糕了。
But Trump then said, this is terrible.
没人能听懂他说的任何一个字。
Nobody can understand a word he says.
美国有多少西班牙语使用者？
How many Spanish speakers are there in The United States?
这很有揭示性，不是吗？
That was revealing, wasn't it?
因为这基本上表明，他并不认为他们是真正的美国人，而且他们可以
Because that basically shows that he doesn't see them as being American Well and and and and they can
说西班牙语。
speak Spanish.
研究人员在德克萨斯州做了很棒的研究，这不是什么靠奇怪的U盘强行塞进我脑海里的记忆。
Researches wonderful research in Texas done by the producers and not something sort of bolted into the back of my brain with a a weird memory stick.
而且昨天《Trip US》其实对这个话题做了很精彩的报道。
And it was something beautifully covered actually on Trip US yesterday.
但我们的研究人员指出，在德克萨斯州的选举中，泰勒·雷奇米德在该选区赢得了约79%的西班牙裔选票，比卡玛拉·哈里斯在2024年选举中获得的53%高出26个百分点。
But our researchers pointed out that in the Texas election, Taylor Rechmid captured approximately 79% of the Hispanic vote in the district, a 26 jump from the 53% that Kamala Harris received in the twenty twenty four election.
在西班牙裔人口占多数的选区，选情平均向民主党倾斜了34个百分点。
Precincts with majority Hispanic population swung an average of 34 points towards the Democrat
哇。
Wow.
与民主党在2022年的表现相比。
Compared with the Democrat's performance in 2022.
因此，人们确实感到特朗普可能正在失去西班牙裔选民的支持。
So there is a real sense that Trump may be losing Hispanic vote.
那次选举的意外之处在于，特朗普击败卡玛拉·哈里斯，关键在于非裔和西班牙裔选民转而支持特朗普，而如今西班牙裔选票似乎大幅流失，这或许正是这一趋势的一部分。
The surprise in that election, Trump's defeat of Kamala Harris, which made a huge marginal difference, was African American voters and Hispanic voters voting for Trump, and that seems to be certainly with the Hispanic vote collapsing, and maybe this is part of that story.
不。
No.
当我们即将迎来中期选举时，把任何会说西班牙语的人单独挑出来，视为某种非美国人，这看起来真的很奇怪。
And it seems really strange as we head to the midterms that you single out anybody who speaks Spanish as somehow being a non American.
美国有七千万西班牙裔人口。
So there's 70,000,000 Hispanic casinos in The United States.
这几乎相当于英国的总人口。
That's virtually the population of The United Kingdom.
唐纳德·特朗普似乎认为，因为他不喜欢那只大坏兔子——这名字会永远跟着他——所以你就可以侮辱他们，说他们不是真正的美国人。
And Donald Trump seems to think that because he doesn't like big bad bunny, as he's going to be called forever, that somehow you should be able to insult them and say they're not really American.
是的。
Yeah.
但令人惊讶的是，他一次又一次地成功地侮辱了自己选民基础中的很大一部分。
It's kinda it's kinda it but it is extraordinary how successful he's been insulting huge bits of his demographic voter base again and again.
对。
Yeah.
好的，罗里。
Okay, Rory.
我们都喜欢树。
We both love trees.
是的。
Yeah.
这个信息来自我们的朋友、伍德兰信托基金会的首席执行官达伦·穆尔克罗夫特。
This So is from our friend Darren Moorcroft, CEO of The Woodland Trust.
顺便说一下，我要提一下格拉斯哥那棵很棒的树，阿盖尔街的白蜡树，没错。
And by the way, let me say, you know my that wonderful tree in Glasgow, the Argyle Street ash Yep.
它被评为年度之树。
Was tree of the year.
现在它进入了欧洲年度之树的投票环节。
It's now in the poll for the European tree of the year.
哦。
Oh.
你得去投票支持它。
And you have you have to go on and vote.
太棒了。
Brilliant.
所以去为欧洲年度之树投上一票吧。
So go on to it's the European tree of the year.
你可以在互联网上通过大坏兔子找到所有信息，但请为阿盖尔街投票。
You can find it all on the the interweb with big bad bunny, and, but vote for Argyle Street.
达伦说，罗里，这特别为你准备的。
So Darren says, Rory, this is specifically for you.
作为参与制定二十五年环境计划的人，你是否担心它已变成一个主要由环境、食品和乡村事务部主导的项目？
As someone involved in creating the twenty five year environment plan, do you share concerns it's become a largely DEFRA only project?
非常好的问题。
Very good point.
为什么尽管有越来越多的证据表明自然对整个政府具有跨部门价值，这个问题却似乎越来越被孤立？
Why despite growing evidence of nature's cross government value does the issue seem increasingly siloed?
这揭示了政府运作方式以及环境、食品和乡村事务部在其内部的地位是怎样的？你打算如何解决？
What does this reveal about how the government works and DEFRA standing within it, and how would you fix it?
嗯，达伦说得对。
Well, so Darren's right.
当我们着手制定二十五年环境计划时，即使是在保守党政府执政下，当时也曾有过真正的跨党派乐观情绪。
When we were bringing together that twenty five year environment plan, even though it was Tory government, there was a moment of real cross party optimism around this.
实际上，我完全不同意迈克尔·戈夫的观点，我认为他在一些重新整合的事务上走得太远了。
And, actually, you know, I disagree profoundly with Michael Gove, and I thought he went too far on some of the rewelding stuff.
但总体而言，当时我们曾与环保慈善机构、国家公园、英格兰自然署和环境署紧密合作，共同制定了一份二十五年环境计划，这份计划如今已被新政府采纳并持续推进。
But broadly speaking, there was a moment where we were working very strongly with environmental charities, with the national parks, with National England, the Environment Agency to define a twenty five year plan, which has largely been taken on, by the new government and pushed ahead.
但其核心是自然，或者更正式地说，是生物多样性。
But at the heart of it is nature or pompously biodiversity.
我们经常谈论气候变化，这当然至关重要，但问题在于我们正以惊人的速度失去物种。
We talk a lot about climate, which is completely critical, but this is about the fact that we are losing species at an incredible rate.
许多指标表明，各种物种的数量下降了85%。
Many indicators suggesting 85% decline in various species.
所谓人类世的概念，本质上是指人类正在改变全球的生物多样性。
This idea of the Anthropocene, which is that basically humans are biodiversity around the planet.
尤其是英国，受到了极其严重的冲击。
And Britain, particularly, brutally affected.
例如，我们的森林覆盖率远低于大多数欧洲国家和其他可比国家。
We have much less tree cover, for example, than most, European countries, most comparable countries.
因此，我们有很大的机会去投身于此。
So there is a huge opportunity for us to lean into this.
让我感到难过的是，如果政府正在寻找能够产生重大影响、引起人们共鸣并改变观念的项目，我希望他们能再次关注这一点。
And one of the things that's making me sad is if the government's looking for projects that can really have an impact and catch people's imagination and change perceptions, I want them to return again.
如果艾玛·雷诺兹在听，我会再次向她强调这一点。
And if Emma Reynolds is listening, I'm gonna push this again on her.
不要只想着农业和那些照料景观的人，特别是我认为正被边缘化的小农户，还要考虑树木。
Not just thinking about farming and people who look after the landscape, particularly small farmers who I think are being marginalized, but also trees.
例如，我想再次推动这样一个想法：我认为伦敦周围的绿色带可以成为英格兰最大的森林。
So for example, I wanna push again this idea that I think the green belt around London could become the largest forest in England.
可以，而且我说的是原生森林。
Could and and I mean a native forest.
我说的是橡树。
I mean oaks.
我说的是生物多样性。
I mean biodiversity.
这将极大地改善伦敦的天气。
It will be great for the weather in London.
这将大大提升空气质量。
It'll be great for air quality.
这将有助于应对气候变化，因为能够固碳。
It'll be great for climate change because of carbon capture.
这将惠及数百万民众，让他们更亲近自然。
It'll be great for the populations, millions of people getting into nature.
但最重要的是，这将为子孙后代留下一份遗产。
But most importantly of all, it'll be something that will be there for future generations.
我的意思是，橡树在四五百年后依然会存在。
I mean, the oak trees will still be there in four, five hundred years' time.
所以想象一下，如果你是基尔·斯塔默或艾米·雷诺兹。
So imagine if you're Keir Starmer or Emil Reynolds.
二十年后，当你置身于这片拥有数亿棵树、充满变革与生物多样性的宏伟森林中，这将是多么美好的遗产啊。
What a wonderful legacy that would be to, in twenty years' time, find yourself in this incredible forest of hundreds of millions of trees with all the transformation and biodiversity.
丹关于部门隔阂的观点完全正确。
And and Dan's point about silos is absolutely right.
如果你想想自然在我们的健康政策和社交处方中能发挥的作用。
If you think about what nature the role that nature could play in our health policy, social prescribing.
我特别喜欢的一点是，每当我和菲奥娜早上带狗出去时，总能看到一些小孩子在老师的带领下，作为他们教育的一部分，整天在荒野上生活。
One of the things I love about whenever Fiona and I are taking the dog out in the morning, there are these tiny kids who are all being sort of led up by teachers who are who are learning as part of their education is about just sort of living on the heath for a day.
我已经推广过一部刚在亚马逊上线的纪录片，主题是关于国王与和谐。
So this this, this, I've pitched already this documentary that's just out on Amazon, on the king, on harmony.
但剑桥大学一位教授在片中提到，在你关于社交处方的观点中，当你走进树林时，你实际上是在吸入这些树木释放的分子。
But one of the points that's made there by, a professor at Cambridge is that, in on your social prescribing point, when you go out into woodland, you're literally breathing in molecules from these trees.
当你闻到松树的气味时，你是在把松树的分子吸入血液中。
When you're smelling pine trees, you're taking the pine molecules into your bloodstream.
这些分子中的一些对人体的影响，几乎与处方药相当。
And some of these molecules have impacts similar in impact to almost prescription drugs.
还有数据显示，在城市中，每远离一片绿地300米，你的健康状况和整体指标就会显著下降。
There's also data that shows that every 300 meters further away you are from a piece of green space in a city, your health and your general indicators decline dramatically.
所以绿地绝对是很好的。
So Green space is absolutely is fine.
我的意思是，城市的规划方式对此至关重要。
I mean, the the the way that cities are developed is fundamental to this.
好的。
Okay.
你是在伦敦养育年幼孩子的家长。
And you are a parent of young children in London.
每个人大概都会经历我周六遇到的情况：周末到底该拿孩子们怎么办。
Everybody will presumably go through what I went through on Saturday, which is what the hell do I do with kids on the weekend.
对吧？
Right?
带着孩子不停地去动物园或博物馆，也是有极限的。
And there's a limit to how much you can schlep around the zoo or go to the museum.
想象一下，如果你能从伦敦市中心坐上火车，立刻就置身于地球上最伟大的森林之一。
Imagine if you could get on a train from Central London and be immediately in the middle of one of the greatest forests on earth.
还有绿带。
And there is the Green Belt.
没人使用它。
Nobody's using it.
那是一片糟糕的后工业时代高尔夫球场区域，由于法规限制不能建房，但也没人让它为自然发挥作用。
It's a sort of horrible post industrial golf course zone that nobody can build houses on because of legislation, but nobody's making it work for nature.
嗯。
Mhmm.
嗯。
Mhmm.
不过，我们应该说，我们的公园相当丰富，
Although, we should say, we're pretty blessed with parks and
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
还有树木和自然，规模巨大。
And trees and nature Huge.
考虑到这是其中之一
Given that it's one of
我们在这方面做得有多好。
the biggest how well we do that.
但我们缺乏的是真正优美的天然森林空间。
But but but what we don't have, are really lovely natural forest spaces.
我的意思是，想象一下，能够徒步20英里穿越一片绝佳的原生森林，该有多美妙。
I mean, imagine how wonderful it would be to be able to walk for 20 miles through an incredible native forest.
是的。
Yeah.
就在ATS Getsalon。
Just on the ATS Getsalon.
对。
Yeah.
飞机从头顶飞过。
With the planes going over.
要么就是那对美国夫妇抵达希思罗机场的故事，飞行员说：‘如果你们看向窗外，会看到矿物城堡，那是女王住的地方。’
It's either the story of the the American couple arriving at Heathrow, the pilot says, if you look out of the window, you'll see Mineral Castle where the queen lives.
妻子转头对丈夫说：‘为什么她在多里亚机场建了这么一座脏兮兮的城堡？’
And the wife turns to the husband and says, why has she built a castle so dirty at Doria Airport?
抱歉。
Sorry.
很好。
Good.
很好。
It's good.
很好。
It's good.
好。
Good.
我喜欢它。
I I I like it.
讲些好笑的笑话吧。
Have some good jokes.
好的。
Okay.
我们到了。
Here we are.
最后一个给你。
Final one for you.
加雷斯，特里普加康沃尔。
Gareth, trip plus Cornwall.
幸福是一种反抗的状态吗？
Is happiness a state of rebellion?
在一个动荡的世界里，面对特朗普等人物带来的诸多存在性威胁，我很想听听阿拉斯泰尔和罗里的建议，看看他们是如何应对这一切并保持理智和积极的。
In a world in flux and with so many existential threats from the likes of Trump, I'd be interested in hearing Alastair and Rory's advice on how they navigate all of this and keep sane and positive.
托马斯，除了政治之外，你做什么事情能带给你希望和快乐？
And, Thomas, what do you do outside of politics that gives you hope and joy?
有趣的是，这让我有机会推广我的21本书之一，《快乐的抑郁症患者》。
Well, funny enough, it allows me to plug one of my 21 books, The Happy Depressive.
哦。
Oh.
这真是个好书名。
That's a great title.
很不错。
It's good.
是的。
Yeah.
这本书讲的是，首先，你怎么看待幸福？
And it's a book about how first of all, do you think about happiness?
因为我认为，我们这个世界之所以如此混乱，其中一个原因就是我们完全不清楚‘幸福’到底意味着什么。
Because I think one of the reasons we're in such a mess as a world is we're completely confused about what we mean by happiness.
好吧，我们指的是什么？
Okay, what do we mean?
我所说的幸福是一种长期的满足感。
Well, what I mean by happiness is kind of long term fulfilment.
我认为很多人认为幸福就是当下感觉良好。
I think what a lot of people think happiness is, is feeling good in the moment.
实际上，我认为 momentarily 的痛苦常常是我去追求那些带来长期满足感的事物的动力或灵感，而我认为你正是在其中找到真正的幸福。
I actually think that the feeling bad in the moment is often for me the spur or the inspiration to then do the pursuit of stuff that leads to long term fulfillment where I think you find the
所以你的意思是，这并不是关于每一刻的愉悦。
So you're saying it's not really about the minute by minute pleasure.
而是关于一种更长远的项目，更大的活动。
It's the sense of a longer project, a bigger activity.
完全正确。
Totally.
完全正确。
Totally.
我认为，一路上，我们每个人都会经历很多糟糕的时刻、低谷、挫折和失败。
I I think that and I and I think along the way, you we all have lots of really bad moments, lots of low moments, lots of setback, and lots of failure.
关键在于你如何利用这些时刻，去构建那些在生命尽头回首时，你会觉得真正重要的东西。
It's how you use them to build the stuff that at the end of your life, you look back and think, well, that that really matters.
所以我认为，这正是我之前跟你说过的，我们常常认为拥有好时光——尤其是在这个国家，好时光似乎总是与改变你的自然状态紧密相关——
So I think that sense of and and that's why I I've I've said to you before, I think we we we think that having a good time, particularly in this country where it seems to be having a good time is so often associated with basically changing your natural state
是的。
Yeah.
通过饮酒或吸毒。
Through a drink or drugs.
这怎么可能真正是追求幸福的含义呢？
How is how can that possibly really be what the pursuit of happiness is about?
对我来说，这通常是逃避不快乐的方式。
To me, that is usually the escape from unhappiness.
而且，我写那本书并不是因为那本书本身，因为那实际上是一次演讲，后来才成了书。
So and then and and while I went did the book not as less that book because that was a sort of that was actually a speech that became a book.
但我写的另一本书是关于我自己的抑郁，那是一次彻底探索：即使在抑郁状态下，你如何找到幸福。
But then the other book I wrote about my own depression, that was an absolute exploration of how do you find happiness even when you're depressed.
嗯，这周我想到了几件事。
Well, here here's a couple of things that I was thinking about this week.
一是昨天我和索莎娜一起去跑步，去了她刚举办的一个展览，地点在迪德。
One is I I went for a run yesterday with Shoshana, down to an exhibition that she's just done in the Did
她赢了你吗？
did she beat you?
我们赛跑来着。
We we went racing.
我们俩是一起慢悠悠地跑步。
We were we were sort of doing a sort of plodding couple's jog together.
我想是吧。
I I I I I guess.
是的。
Yeah.
虽然我目前戴着各种可穿戴设备，所以一直在持续追踪我的微小心率变化
Although I'm all kitted out with wearables at the moment, so I'm sort of endlessly following my sort of micro heart rate
和一些其他数据。
variations and stuff.
毫无意义。
Pointless.
毫无意义的东西。
Pointless stuff.
我们到达了加里森小教堂，肖莎娜和 turquoise mountain 在那里举办一场向公众开放的精彩展览。
And we got to the Garrison Chapel where Shoshana and Turquoise Mountain are doing this amazing exhibition open to the public.
请任何即将前往伦敦的人一定去看看。
Please, anyone who's coming to London, have a look at it.
展览展示了来自阿富汗、缅甸、巴勒斯坦以及世界其他地区的工匠——尤其是女性——制作的极其精美的作品。
And what it's showing is all the work of craftspeople, particularly women, making incredibly beautiful things in Afghanistan, in Myanmar, in Palestine, and in other countries around the world.
我非常喜欢这一点，因为我一直在思考，为什么我晚上会感到快乐。
And I love that because I I I was trying to work out why I felt happy in the evening.
但我认为有两件事。
But I thought were two things.
我的意思是，其中之一是，没错，我通过内啡肽改变了自身状态。
I mean, one of them is, yes, I was changing my state with my endorphins.
但其次，是能以一种微小的方式帮助她的展览，谈论她的演讲，并欣赏这些美丽的作品所带来的成就感。
But secondly, it was the sense of being able to help in a small way with her exhibition, talk about her speech, and see all this beautiful stuff.
不过，第二件事则完全属于另一个层面——上周末我去看了《哈姆雷特》。
Now the second thing, though, which is a completely other end, I went to see Hamlet over the weekend.
你看过《哈姆内特》吗？
Have seen Hamnet?
我看过了。
I have.
《哈姆内特》。
Hamnet.
是的。
Yeah.
哈姆内特。
Hamnet.
是的。
Yeah.
我对你的评价很感兴趣。
I'm interested in your review.
我来谈谈我的看法。
I'll give you mine.
总的来说，作为一个小男孩的家长，我几乎全程都崩溃了。
Well, basically, as the parent of a young boy, I was in bits through most of it.
我的意思是，我根本无法承受这个小男孩死去的悲痛与恐惧。
I mean, I just couldn't handle the grief and the horror of this young boy dying.
但我同时也觉得这部电影非常、非常有力量。
But I also felt it was very, very powerful.
我感受到了一种真正的宣泄。
I felt a real sense of catharsis.
我有一种很少有的感受。
I felt a sense of in a way that I very rarely do.
你知道吗？
You know?
我的意思是，亚里士多德说过，你去剧院，经历一场净化，整个世界观都会改变。
I mean, Aristotle says, you go to the theater and you go through this catharsis, and your whole worldview's changed.
这部电影确实让我有这种感觉。
I did feel that with that film.
我觉得它令人心碎。
I found it devastating.
我一直在哭，但看完之后我走出来时
I was crying all the time, but I came out the end of it
所以你是说
So you say
我真的感受到，他们传达了一个非常了不起的观点，而我认为你一定能产生共鸣的一点是，作为主角的威廉·莎士比亚对妻子说：是的，我们的孩子刚去世，但我得回伦敦工作了。
really feeling, yeah, that they had made a really incredible point about and one thing you should be able to relate to, I thought, is the extraordinary sense that William Shakespeare, who's the central character, is saying to his wife, yes, our kid's got has just died, but I'm going back to work in London.
我得写我的剧本。
I've gotta write my play.
是的。
Yeah.
她却说：不行。
And she's like, no.
你绝对不能走。
You effing aren't.
但你确实会走。
But you do.
你不能丢下我，带着一个死去的孩子，而你的全部同情却都给了她。
You're not you're not leaving me with a dead kid, and all your sympathy is with her.
你会想，不管你做什么工作，
You think, it doesn't matter what your job is.
别这样抛弃你的家人。
Don't abandon your family like this.
然后你必须学会与之和解。
And then you have to get to terms with.
但另一方面，他的工作是成为有史以来最伟大的剧作家，他正在创作有史以来最伟大的戏剧。
But on the other hand, his job is being the greatest playwright that's ever lived, and he's writing the greatest play that's ever lived.
我认为这部电影在结尾处平衡了这两者，也就是工作与生活的张力。
And what the film, I I thought, did at the end is balance those two things, that, as it were, the tensions of work and life.
你看，这真的很有意思。
You see, I I that's really interesting.
当我去看《哦，玛丽》的时候
When I went to see Oh, Mary
好的。
Okay.
那部戏现在就在这条街的尽头上演，讲的是……一旦你进入剧情，就会觉得非常搞笑。
Which is on just down the road here at the moment, which is about and it's once you get into it, it's very funny.
明白了。
Right.
它讲的是亚伯拉罕·林肯，一个性压抑的同性恋形象——这并不是基于真实的亚伯拉罕·林肯。
It's about Abraham Lincoln being this sex starved gay sort of is is not based on the I don't think the real Abraham Lincoln.
而他的妻子是个酗酒、疯狂、苛刻、神经质的女人。
And the wife is alcoholic, mad, demanding, crazy.
所以这是一部非常疯狂的剧。
So it's a it's a crazy sort of play.
我前半小时根本没享受，因为我觉得这完全不是亚伯拉罕·林肯。
And I spent the first half hour really not enjoying it because I think this is so not Abraham Lincoln.
这让我很反感。
It really offends me.
我对《哈姆内特》也有点这种感觉。
And I felt that a little bit about about Hamnet.
我很难接受莎士比亚这个形象，我一向认为他是历史上最伟大的人，因为他对世界做出的贡献，至今仍在影响着我们。
I couldn't quite get my head around the fact that Shakespeare, who I regularly think is the greatest person who ever lived because of what he's what he contributed to the world and still does.
顺便说一句，如果还没看过的话，上周伊恩·麦克莱恩在斯蒂芬·科尔伯特节目中表演了一段精彩绝伦的莎士比亚作品——不过这跟美国当下发生的事有关。
And by the way, if people haven't seen it, Ian McKellen on the Stephen Colbert show last week doing this amazing piece of Shakespeare, but anyway, which is about what's happening in America now.
我们会把它放进简报里。
We'll put it in the newsletter.
所以我对它感到非常恼火。
So I got really irritated by it.
然后我对一些制作方面的内容也感到非常恼火。
I then got really irritated by some of the production stuff.
结尾时，所有焦点都放在妻子身上，还有那些梦幻般的片段等等。
The end when they're all that sort of the the the focus on on the wife and the and the the sort of dreamy bits and what have you.
我觉得作为一部电影，它因为儿子的表演而被救回来了，对吧。
I thought it was as a film, I thought it was rescued by the performance of the son Right.
我觉得他表现得非常出色。
Who I thought was brilliant.
但我没有像你那样被它打动。
But I wasn't as moved by it as you were.
也许是因为你的孩子还很小。
Maybe it's because your kids are so young.
我不知道。
I don't know.
是的。
Yeah.
我有点生我妈妈的气，因为她让我去看这部电影，我当时就想：哪儿有健康警示啊？
I I I I'm I a bit cross with my mother because she told me to go and see it, and I was like, where is the health warning?
你怎么可能指望一个八岁孩子的父母去看完一部关于八岁孩子去世的整部电影？
How can you possibly expect a parent of an eight year old to watch a whole film about an eight year old dying?
对。
Yeah.
你看，我有一部分根本无法想象莎士比亚会如此严苛、残忍又自我中心，但也许他确实如此。
See, I I a part of me couldn't imagine that Shakespeare could have been quite as harsh and cruel and self centered, but maybe it was.
而且我觉得，当我们讨论历史人物时，另一点是：我们其实并不知道。
And that's the other thing I think with these when you're dealing with historical figures, the truth is we don't know.
我们知道很多。
We know a lot.
关于莎士比亚最令人惊叹的一点是，除了他的作品之外，我们其实所知甚少。
There's one of the most amazing things about Shakespeare is actually beyond what he's written, we don't know that much.
这不像，这不像。
It's not like a it's not like
这确实很惊人。
Well, it's amazing.
但你有没有读过《莎士比亚与银街》？
But I Have you have you read, for example, Shakespeare and Silver Street
是的。
Yeah.
他们只取了短短两句。
Where they take a single, two sentences.
莎士比亚唯一被记录下来的话语，是伦敦一起小法庭案件中的内容，这些内容在十九世纪于档案中被发现。
Shakespeare's only recorded words are in a small court case in London, which was then discovered in the nineteenth century in an archive.
但你说得对。
But you're absolutely right.
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