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丹，很高兴你回来了。
Dan, great to have you back.
CMS控股，我是你们的忠实粉丝，老牌玩家了。
CMS Holdings, big fan, OG.
而且，你知道，今天CPI数据出来了，然后，嗯，就这样吧。
And, you know, we got the CPI print today, and, well, here we are.
我们希望没什么新闻。
We're is hoping there's no news.
基本上就是没什么新闻。
It's it basically There's no news.
和我们预想的一样，大家都冷静下来了。
Like what we thought it was gonna be, and everybody calmed down.
我讨厌市场里的这种时期。
I hate these periods in the market.
就像，你只能被一堆你没有任何优势的信息牵着走，而且大家都无缘无故地紧张兮兮的。
Like it's just, you're beholden to a bunch of information that you don't have any edge on and like people are like all wound up for like no reason.
就是，我觉得没有它也行，但可能接下来一段时间都会这样，尤其是大家开始担心事情会偏离历史范围的时候。
It's just, I could do without it, But I we're probably it's probably gonna be the norm for a while, especially like as people get worried about like things sort of like moving outside of historical ranges.
而且显然，接下来几个月还有一个选举周期要过。
And then like obviously we have an election cycle that's gotta like play out over the next couple months.
所以它肯定会占据头条。
So it's it's kinda gonna dominate the headlines.
当那些特殊的行情变动是由资产本身的根本原因驱动时，那就有趣多了。
It's a lot more fun when like the idiosyncratic price moves are just like driven by some underlying reason with like the asset.
但现在就是这样。
But it is what it is right now.
所以我们只能受制于它，跟着它走。
So we're beholden to it and we gotta just like run with it.
感觉现在外部因素才是主要的驱动力。
It feels like external forces are kind of the driver right now.
就像你说的，我们没有那种优势，那是别人的游戏。
And like you said, we don't have you know, the the edge is that that's another person's game.
但我突然想到，通常来说，都是买谣言，卖新闻。
But something just occurred to me, is like, you know, typically, it's like buy the rumor, sell the news.
但就目前的情况来看，感觉更像是制造恐慌。
But with this current stuff, it feels like a lot like fear mongering.
而且实际上，你知道，这是看跌情绪。
And it's actually like, you know, the bear it's the bearish sentiment.
这恰恰相反。
It's it's the opposite.
感觉应该是当新闻真正发生时，你应该买入，而且实际情况并没有人们最初预测的那么糟糕。
It feels like it's you should be buying the news when it actually happens and it's not as negative as people, like, originally forecasted it to be.
我们就直接飙升了。
We just rip higher.
但在等待事件发生的过程中，恐惧情绪一直在压制市场。
But the fear suppresses the market in the meantime as we're waiting for the event to unfold.
这确实很难。
It's just hard.
因为很难知道，整个市场里大家到底有多害怕。
Because it's hard to know, like, in the market in aggregate, like, what people's level of fear is.
我的意思是，以前在资金费率变大之前，融资数据能很好地直接反映市场的恐慌程度。
I mean, you used to back before perks got bigger, the financing used to be a pretty good direct indication of like sort of what interest level of fear in the marketplace.
但现在这真的不太管用了。
Like that's that's like really not a thing anymore.
至少从方向上看，我们发现从中能获取的信息优势不多了。
At least directionally, like we found that there's not as much edge to like gleam out of it.
在山寨币上还能看到一些，因为它们可以被炒作得更远一些。
You get it on the alts just because they can be wound up and pushed a little bit farther.
但比特币和以太坊的总体资金费率，并不能给你提供方向性的信号，告诉你大家是看跌还是看涨。
But like aggregate funding for like Bitcoin and ETH isn't gonna like give you a directional side into like sort of people's like bearishness or not.
或者说，至少它不再那么有预测性了，因为以前它还挺有意思的。
It's or at least it's not as predictive going forward because it used to just be Interesting.
当只有比特币的时候，现在也是只有比特币。
When it was just bit next, now that it was just bit next.
当比特币还是整个市场的时候，资金费率如果是负的，你就可以直接做多。
When bit next was like the entirety of the market, like the funding would be negative and you're like, you can just get long.
那基本上就是个傻瓜信号。
Like it was like kinda like brain dead signal.
这种情况不常发生。
It didn't happen a ton.
然后当资金费率年化超过30%的时候，你就做空，因为它肯定会自动回归。
And then when the financing would be like annualized over 30%, you just get short because like it was automatically gonna like converge.
它就能告诉你杠杆是不是推得太过了，不管哪边。
It just like could show you that the leverage was too pushed either way.
而且说明大家在某一个方向上情绪太强烈了。
And that people were like feeling too strongly in one direction or another.
但现在情况不一样了。
But that's not the case anymore.
但那曾经是我们历史上最好的市场参考指标。
But that was like the best market sort of heuristic we used to historically have.
现在更难了，至少我是这么觉得。
It's harder now, at least I think
确实。
it is.
嗯，我觉得有一件事。
Well, I think one thing
情绪参与度。
Engaging sentiment.
丹，有意思的是，实际上看山寨币总持仓量对比比特币。
Dan, that's interesting is actually looking at the total OI of the Altcoin complex versus Bitcoin.
一旦那个阈值翻转，也就是山寨币的总持仓量超过比特币，你就知道，你基本上处于一个投机环境里。
Once that threshold kinda flips, so the total OI on alt surpasses Bitcoin, you know you're kind of in a I mean, just a speculative environment.
这到底是结束还是开始，它不会告诉你，但你知道资金流向已经变了，分配者都在寻找超额回报的地方。
Whether that's the end or the beginning, it doesn't really tell you, but you know that the tides have shifted as far as where allocators are trying to get outsized returns from.
对，分配者就是投机者。
Well, yeah, allocators are speculators.
对，就是这样。
But yeah, that's Exactly.
没错，正是如此。
Right, exactly.
但你说得对。
But you're right.
我觉得山寨币整体的未平仓合约量可能是个不错的信号。
I think the aggregate open eyeing of the alt complex is a pretty good signal probably.
你看，在10月10日那天就看到了。
I mean, you saw it right in the 10/10.
基本上到了高点，然后就……对。
Like, it was, basically at the highs and it just got Yeah.
被清算了。
Wiped.
丹，你现在在看什么？
What are you looking at now, Dan?
你现在怎么看这个情况？
What's your what's your kind of read here?
显然，你知道，我们离低点已经涨了不少了。
Obviously, you know, we're up off the lows a significant amount.
我们刚看完CPI数据。
We just got through the CPI read.
显然，我看涨，因为过去几天我一直在做多ETH。
Obviously, I'm bulled up because I was smashing ETH longs over the last couple of days.
大家都在骂ETH。
People are hating on ETH.
它好像成了世界上最差的代币，但实际上它是整个市场里最好的L1智能合约平台。
It's like the worst token in the world when it's literally like the best L1 smart contract platform in the entire market.
这简直就是送分题。
It's it's been a layup.
它一直在整理，比比特币还强。
It's been, you know, kind of consolidating here, stronger than Bitcoin.
ETH对BTC的走势看起来很不错。
ETHPTC looks great.
我们现在到哪了，丹？
Where are we at, Dan?
就是说，你主要看哪些指标来判断整体的大趋势？
Like, what what are you looking at to get to get actual signal on kind of the broader picture here?
我觉得有几个方面吧。
So I think there's a couple of things.
首先，有一批表现强势的币种一直在领涨。
Like one is there's like a basket of outperforming names that's continued to outperform.
我觉得这可以很好地反映市场里大家是不是在降低风险。
And I think that's a pretty good proxy in the market of like whether people are like derisking.
比如Hype、Lit、Near、Zcash，还有VBB。
So it's hype, lit, near, Zcash, VBB.
VBB你一般怎么称呼它？
What do you technically call VBB?
是手续费的问题吗？
Is the fees?
是不是就像那样，好吧。
Is it that like how Okay.
因为我在想，你会说它已经……我是说，我不知道。
Because I was like, do you say it's been say I I don't know.
总之，那个篮子，如果人们继续在回调时买入，那种强势表明资金还在流入。
Anyway, like that basket, like if people are continuing to bid that like on dips and like that sort of sort of strength, gives the idea that this money sort of still flowing I think in.
那是一个参考指标，只要赢家还在被买入，那就挺有意思的。
That's like one proxy as long as like the winners sort of keep being bid, that's like an interesting one.
我觉得更重要的是，不幸的是，股市在短期内主导了走势。
I think like the bigger one though is just you you unfortunately have like equity markets sort of driving things in the short term here.
所以真的就是关注它的动向。
So like really just paying attention to like where that's going.
不是说你能预测它会怎么走，但就是看看它每天的表现。
Not that you're gonna like predict where it's going, but just seeing what it's doing on a day to day.
这其实更多是宏观层面的问题，加密货币本身没有足够的独特资金流来推动它，我是这么认为的。
And this is like drives more into the macro thing where like crypto like doesn't, There's not enough flows inside of crypto just unique to crypto to sort of drive it still in my opinion.
我觉得没有多少人能成功进行后续融资。
Like, I I don't think you've had like a lot of people like raise can like follow on funding.
我觉得也没有很多新基金成立。
I don't think there's been a lot of like new funds formed.
我觉得也没有很多人在筹集资金。
I don't think there's been like a lot of people like raising money.
散户资金很不稳定，只是零星地进来，但很长时间没有持续的资金流入。
So in retail is flighty, like it sort of comes in in pockets, but there hasn't been sustained inflows for like a really long time.
所以这让市场有点孤立无援。
So like that's made the market a little bit sort of on its own.
就像无法自己支撑自己一样。
Like not being able to like support itself on its own.
没有足够的资金流入来支撑，比如如果股市跌了10%，那会是灾难性的，但比特币和以太坊还能平稳运行，因为有资金流入。
Like there's not enough money flowing into be like, Oh, like if equities are 10% off, which would be like catastrophic, like it's fine Bitcoin and Ether humming because there's like inflows coming in.
债务类资产上次真正活跃起来，好像就是那会儿了。
The debts were like really the last time like we sort of had that go.
我其实觉得债务类资产会重新火起来，如果市场保持上涨的话，它们应该会涨，对吧？
I actually think the debts have a resurgence here where like if the markets stay up, no, no, they should, right?
因为它们应该能跟着涨，应该会有一个向上的贝塔系数。
Because they should be able to like a raise, like they should trade with a beta to the upside.
但它们也会跟着跌，对吧？
They also trade with a beta to the downside, right?
这就是它们最大的问题。
Like that's like the big problem with them.
我希望它们先整合一下，然后开始以溢价交易。
I'd like to see those things consolidate and then like start trading at a premium.
如果它们能持续地筹集资金来继续买入底层资产，那就会很重要。
If it's like consistently while they're like raising capital to like continue to like buy the underlying that would be material.
我觉得这对市场来说也会是一个很大的信号。
I think that'd be like a big signal on the market too.
对。
Yep.
对。
Yep.
说到DATs，我们在节目开始前也聊了聊Tom Lee和Bitmine。
Speaking of DATs, and we were talking about Tom Lee and Bitmine a little bit before the show.
我刚找到那张图表，你说得对，就是那个十大最佳日子的规律。
I just found the chart, and you're right, the rule of the 10 best days.
而且，你知道，Tom说这个规律适用于比特币、以太坊和股票。
And, you know, Tom says this applies to Bitcoin, ETH, and equities.
基本上，从2014年开始，平均每年最好的十个交易日能带来市场162%的回报。
Basically, since 2014, on average, the ten best days of the year have returned a 162% of the market.
然后这是比特币从2014年以来的数据。
And then this is on Bitcoin since 2014.
然后剩下的300多天，你知道，比特币从2014年以来涨了多少。
And then the other 300 and we know how, you know, how much Bitcoin has gone up, you know, since 2014.
但一年中其他三百五十五天平均下跌14%。所以每一天，我的意思是，太不可思议了。
But the other three hundred and fifty five days of the year goes down 14% on average So each just, I mean, incredible.
然后，就像你说的，在市场里的时间比抓住市场时机更重要，因为你不知道那十天会在一年中的什么时候出现。
And then and then like you said, you know, time in the market beats timing the market because you don't know when those 10 are gonna happen throughout the course of the year.
那你是不是也同意这个观点？
So do you do you kind of, you know, you agree with this?
你自己会遵循这个策略吗？
Do you follow it yourself?
你是怎么把它融入你的风格的？
How do you I just how do you incorporate it into, like, your style?
是的，我觉得你应该有配置。
Yeah, think you wanna be allocated.
我觉得你总体上应该做多。
Like, I think you just wanna be long in general.
我觉得这就像生活中一种很好的处理方式。
I think that's like in life, just sort of like a good sort of way to go about it.
我也不太确定。
Like, I don't know.
就是长期来看，这样通常挺管用的。
It just like tends to work like over a very long time horizon.
所以我觉得总的结论就是，持有资产就好。
So I think that's like the general takeaway is just like own things.
我不知道，别太纠结于精确抄底。我觉得市场焦虑的另一个原因是，比如今天大涨，但有些人没参与进去，他们就会急得不行。
I don't know, don't get super worked up on like picking the exact PICO bottoms I of think it's also like what causes the anxiety in the markets is because like there'll be like a big move up like today and like people aren't participating in it and they would lose their minds.
我觉得这也是问题的一部分，因为大部分收益都集中在那些少数的大涨日里。
I think that's a part of the problem because like so much of the return is generated on outside days.
对，我觉得总的结论就是，你应该按兵不动，持有资产，而不是试图去交易每一个小的波动。
Yeah, I think the general takeaway is like, you should be sitting on your hands and you should just be like owning assets like more than trying to like trade every like little idiosyncratic move with it.
所以，Dan，说到赢家这个话题，关于长期持有市场，我们并没有完美地抄到底部。
So, Dan, on this note of kind of the winners here, right, if thinking about this kind of spending time in the market, you know, we didn't play the top perfectly.
我们去年年底从一些大鲸那里得到了很好的建议，说顶部可能会提前到来。
We got some really good advice from, you know, just whales last year end of last year that, you know, there could be an earlier top.
所以我们算是及时撤出来了，虽然不是完全撤出，但我和Robbie在熊市里表现得还不错。
So we were able to kind of get out, you know, not in full ever, but Robbie and I had a decent bear market.
我觉得可能从投资组合的历史高点回撤了大约20%。
Like, I think maybe took a 20% drawdown from portfolio all time high in the bowl.
而且我也没有在其他市场里折腾。
And I didn't I didn't really play around in other markets.
我在铀的交易上亏了一些，但后来赚回来了，然后我就基本按兵不动。
I kinda got smoked on a uranium trade, but then I I made it back, and I kinda just sat on my hands.
Robbie也是这么做的，他就一直不停地加仓、加仓、再加仓。
And Robbie did the same, and Robbie just kept kind of, like, you know, allocating, allocating, allocating.
DC那波行情。
The DC bang.
没错。
Exactly.
然后在这个过程中，Dan，我们比市场其他人更早发现了这些赢家，我觉得是这样。
And then through this, Dan, we started to uncover these winners kind of like sooner than the rest of the market, I guess.
我们很早就进场了，大概从二十、三十、四十美元的时候就开始买了。
We were in hype, you know, from like the twenties, thirties, forties on.
我们买了ZK，大概在400美元左右，而且很多到现在还拿着。
We were in ZK, you know, 400 ish, and we're still holding a lot of these.
我们买了Venice，大概在10美元左右的时候。
We were in Venice, you know, around like the $10 mark ish.
当然，你不可能每个都抓住。
Obviously, you can't play all these right.
所以我们开始看到这个趋势，然后慢慢形成了我们的投资组合理论，就是这轮牛市里最赚钱的组合是一个杠铃策略，一边是跟宏观环境高度相关的价值存储资产。
And so we started to see this, and we started to kind of like develop this portfolio theory of like the winning portfolio for this bull market is this barbell, and this barbell is store value assets that are highly correlated to what's happening with the macro environment.
比特币、ZK，黄金也可以放进去。
Bitcoin, ZK, you can put gold in there.
ETH也可以放进去。
You can put ETH in there.
我们认为这四个资产会对今天这种事件反应非常非常敏感。
These four, we think, are going to be highly, highly receptive to things like what happened today.
CPI数据出来了，虽然有点高，但可能没大家想的那么高。
With the CPI print, it was hot, but maybe not as hot as everyone thought.
砰。
Boom.
涨了10%。
Eases up 10%.
Zcash在猛涨。
Zcash ripping.
Best Buy买了更多债券。
Best Buy's more bonds.
这有点像你内部的法币贬值。
This is kind of like your fiat debased inside.
然后你还有这些链上业务，它们有点像印钞机，把利润返还给代币持有者，或者做某种形式的回购，很多你提到的那些项目都是这样。
And then you've got these on chain businesses that are kind of like printing money and returning it to token holders or doing some form of buybacks and a lot of the names kind of that you mentioned.
而且我知道你也是这些新一代区块链的大投资者，比如Monad等等，它们可能也在其中占有一席之地。
And then I know you're a big investor in some of these kind of newer era blockchains too, Monad, etcetera, and they probably have a place in there too.
我们做了很多种子轮投资，结果都归零了，所以，你知道，我在这里其实没什么发言权。
And we did a lot of seed deals that are zero, so, you know, I'm not one to really talk here.
但我们逐渐形成了一个想法，就是我不想把任何资金投到这两个类别以外的东西上。
But we kind of came to this idea that I don't want to allocate any of my capital into anything that's not in these two buckets.
显然，现在市场上有更多的投机行为。
And obviously, we're getting a bit more speculation now.
比如一些模因币之类的。
You got some memes, etcetera.
但为了在牛市初期买入现货、控制仓位，然后在退出时逐步减仓，这感觉对我们来说是合理的。
But for the sake of, like, spot, ride, size, buy in the, you know, in the beginning part of the bowl and try to, you know, trim out exits, it feels like this is what makes sense to us.
我们忽略了什么？
What are we missing?
我们哪里想错了？
Like, what are we wrong about?
我们应该如何考虑在这里进行一定程度的配置？
What how should we think about allocating here to a degree?
我觉得没有所谓的错，只是要注意的一点是，这个领域已经很拥挤了。
I don't think there's a wrong, I just like it's The one thing to watch is it's crowded.
现在基本上每个人都在讲同一个故事。
This is basically everyone's parodying the same narrative now.
这并不意味着它是错的。
It doesn't mean it's wrong.
它一直是对的，而且已经经历过了。
It's been right and it's gone through.
但你确实要注意，如果大家都持同一个观点，那么它的优势就会开始被稀释。
But you do have to watch that if everyone's in the same thesis, then it sort of starts to crowd out the edge of it.
这是唯一需要担心的事情。
That's just the only thing to be concerned about.
好的。
Okay.
那么这是牛市中期的事情，还是牛市后期的事情？
And so is that a mid bull cycle thing, a late bull cycle thing?
现在就已经在发生这种情况了吗？
Is that already happening now?
你的
How's your
你看，钱都在那里，对吧？
See, that's where all the money lies, right?
你就是那个有趣的
You're the fun
经理，老兄。
manager, man.
我只是个播客主持人。
I'm just the podcaster.
你在说什么呢？
What are you talking about?
兄弟们，如果你这么做，你就掌握了整个游戏，对吧？
Dads, if you do that, you got the whole game, right?
这总是最难的部分，对吧？
That's always the hard part, right?
确实很难。
It's hard.
你还得回顾历史，对吧？
You got to like think back historically too, right?
比如，以前也有过其他时期，人们会觉得，哦，这显然就是未来。
Like there's like been other periods of time where people are like, Oh, this is like clearly the future.
这就是你押注的那个篮子。
This is like the basket you own.
然后它确实在整个周期里表现很好。
And then like, it does like really well, like through the whole cycle.
然后，好吧，还记得21年吗？
Then like, all right, remember at 21, right?
那是什么情况？
So what was it?
所以有很多事件。
So lot events.
就像当时大家都在拍桌子，所有人都把整个篮子搞砸了。
Like that was everybody's panning the table and everybody was blowing the whole basket.
然后显然就剧烈地崩盘了。
And then like it obviously unwound violently.
然后像很多事件能够恢复过来，但你基本上在账本的其他三分之二上还是亏了八个零。
And like so lot of was able to like recover and come back, but you still like you basically eight zeros on the other two thirds of the book.
所以要注意的是，如果大家都挤在同一个东西里，然后人们开始退出，你会受到重创。
So it's just, something to be like cognizant of is like if everyone's in the same thing and then people do hit the exits, like you get hit hard.
好的。
Okay.
这是唯一需要担心的事情。
It's the only thing to be concerned.
但这并不意味着它会出错，对吧？
It doesn't mean it's gonna be wrong, right?
而且它们可能会继续复利增长，继续走下去。
And they could keep compounding and they keep going.
另外，加密货币的一个问题是，不像股票那样有持续的资金流入，对吧？
And like sort of if there's incremental Part of the problem crypto has is there's not Like equities have constant flows, right?
比如，总是有新钱流入股市。
Like there's always new money flowing into equities.
在美国，你必须在结构上持有它。
Like you have to structurally own it in The US.
我们有一整套为退休设计的投资产品，这些产品都依赖于资金流入股市。
Like we have like an entire complex of like investment products for people's retirement that like are predicated on like money moving into equities.
但加密货币不是这样。
Like this that is not true for crypto.
整个资产类别可以根据流入或流出的资金量而缩小或扩大。
Like there's not like the whole asset class can like shrink or grow depending on like how much like inflows or outflows there are into it.
所以你会遇到一个问题，就是在某些时期，它就像一个封闭的资金池。
So you have a little bit of that problem where it's a contained pool of money for like periods of time.
所以如果大家都挤在同样的东西里，然后整个市场收缩，那些就会跌得最惨。
So like if it's all sort of everyone's in the same things and like the whole thing contracts, like those will contract the hardest.
我最担心的一点就是，加密货币的标的和交易账本里有很多拥挤的交易。
That's like my biggest thing to just be concerned about is like, there's a lot of crowding inside of like crypto names and books.
我敢打赌，现在每个流动性基金经理都持有同样的那批币。
Like I would bet you every liquid fund manager is like long the same basket of names at this point.
对。
Yep.
而且确实有效。
And it's worked.
挺好的。
It's good.
没错。
It's right.
也不一定就是错的。
It's not necessarily wrong.
这只是一个需要留意的事情，如果情况真的转变，那么每个人都会突然争抢同一批名字的流动性。
It's just like something to be, if things do turn then like everybody suddenly scrambles for liquidity in the same names.
你觉得有没有一种可能，随着我们继续，如果这些名字继续增长，会有某种轮动。
Do you think there's any element of like, as we continue, if these names continue to compound, there's kind of like the the rotation.
嘿，这些资产已经涨了这么多了。
Hey, these things already have had so much price appreciation.
我会去买那些次一级的，比如，莱特币表现非常好，那些次一级的超流动性资产。
I'm gonna buy like the second to the and like, you know, Leiters doing extremely well, kind of the second to the hyper liquid.
那些还没怎么涨的，你知道，人们会涌入这些，因为其他的已经涨太多了。
Like, those who haven't quite ran yet, you know, people flood into those because the other ones are already up so much.
不过，我觉得玩这个挺危险的。
I mean, that's a dangerous game to play though.
但确实，这种情况会发生。
But yes, it does happen.
但总的来说，我觉得人们不应该因为觉得次一级的名字可能会有跟涨行情，就不去持有那些好名字。
But I would say in general, people shouldn't try to like you shouldn't you shouldn't not own a good name because you think the second name might have a beta move.
我理解这么做的逻辑，但你基本上是在玩一个猜测资金流向的游戏，猜别人下一步会往哪儿走。
Like I understand the logic to do it, but you're basically playing this game of like expecting where you think other flows are gonna incrementally go.
所以总的来说，我觉得还是别这么干。
So like I would say in general, just like don't do that.
我同意你的看法。
I would I agree with you.
而且我觉得一旦这种情况越来越频繁，就说明我们已经进入后期阶段了。
And I think once we start to see that happen more and more, that's a signal that we're getting later in later stage.
没错。
No.
人们确实会开始剧烈地在不同标的之间切换。
People definitely start like violently like moving between sort of stuff.
大家就开始更多地去投机了。
People just start speculating more.
那么，丹
So Dan
而且还有一点，这跟增量资金的流入有关，对吧？
Well also you get It's a function of like incremental capital coming, right?
比如说散户突然开始大量涌入，对吧？
Like if retail suddenly starts coming in in like a earnest, right?
他们就更倾向于玩这种游戏。
And they're just like sort of just, they're much more likely to play that game.
没错。
Exactly.
这其实是一种信号或指标，说明是散户资金在推动，而不是更稳定的长期资本。
It's kind of a signal or indicator that retail it's retail flow rather than stickier capital that is leading that charge if we see that play out.
最搞笑的是，每次瑞波有好消息，你总想买恒星币，但想想其实没什么道理。
One of the funniest things on the vein is like anytime there's like positive news for Ripple, like you always wanna buy Stellar and it's like, it doesn't, you're like, it doesn't really make any sense.
然后你会想，对，但这是瑞波，只是更便宜。
And you're like, yes, but it's it's Ripple, but cheaper.
然后它就只是交易……
And like, it just trades
完全没动静。
at all.
对，没有币在涨。
Yeah, no coin pumps.
嗯，其实总的来说，这就是一个贝塔交易，按理说不该有，但每次都有。
Well, no, just in general, like it's this beta trade that like doesn't, it shouldn't be there, but it is every time.
确实，对吧。
It's like, right.
瑞波币，但更便宜。
Ripple, but cheaper.
然后大家开始关注这个，我们就有点忽略了完全稀释估值和流通市值，对吧。
And then people start paying attention to that and we kind of lose sight of FDV and circulating valuation and yeah.
比如要是新闻标题说大蒜能治癌症，你就会想买恒星币。
Like if the headline was like garlic house, like, cures cancer, like, you wanna buy Stellar.
这真的挺搞笑的。
And it's like kinda hilarious.
但确实，这种情况是有的。
But yes, that does, like, happen.
所以我想谈谈我认为散户会从哪里进来，我觉得更可能是FOMO和社交交易，而不是像过去那样炒恐龙币。
So I'd like to get into where I think retail is gonna come into, which I think is actually more likely to be FOMO and social trading than it is Dino coins like we've seen in the past.
但在那之前，我想聊聊L1和Monet，不过我想先谈谈下一个边际买家，我觉得还有很多场外资金。
But before we get there, I wanna talk about L1s and Monet, but I wanna talk about the next marginal buyer first, which is I think that there's still a lot of sideline capital.
所以如果我持有这些币，我觉得我们会看到加密圈内的人、流动性基金等因为FOMO而涌入这些币。
So if I'm holding these names, I think there's we're gonna get FOMO into, like, these names from, you know, crypto natives, liquid funds, etcetera.
ZK没有私募轮。
There was no private round for ZK.
没有私募轮
There was no private round
对于ZK。
for ZK.
那不是真的。
That's not true.
ZK是有风险投资轮的。
There was a venture round for ZK.
抱歉。
Sorry.
ZK确实有风险投资轮。
There there was a venture round for ZK.
有20%的税，不过我不是想争论这个。
There was a 20% tax from I'm not trying to fight it, by way.
不，我是说，有时候历史就是会被遗忘。
I'm No, I'm It's like forget history sometimes along the way.
好的。
Okay.
你说得对。
You're right.
这里面有大量的风险投资仓位。
This had a massive venture position in it.
它是靠自筹资金起步的。
It was bootstrapped.
好的。
Okay.
所以我觉得
So I
我觉得更重要的是，它经历了十年的煎熬，最后被抛弃了。
guess the I guess more of the point is that it went through ten years of hell and got left for dead.
Hyper Liquid 曾经有
Hyper Liquid had
兄弟，有很多东西都被抛弃了。
dude, There's a lot of stuff that's left for dead.
这不算什么，这不能说明问题。
Like, that's not a that's not an argument.
那不算什么论点。
That's not a thesis.
喜欢。
Love it.
大多数东西都被遗弃了。
Most stuff is left four Dead.
我不是，我不是
I'm not I'm not
不。
no.
不。
No.
不。
No.
我只是想确保我们得到了
I'm just I I wanna make sure that, like, we're getting the
播客是对的。
The podcast is correct.
好的。
Okay.
好的。
Okay.
我很感激。
I appreciate it.
我会在需要的地方提出反对意见。
Gonna push back where I think it needs to be.
谢谢。
Thank you.
好吧。
Alright.
所以我想说的是，我觉得很多流动性基金和加密货币原住民都忽略了这一点。
So I guess what I'm saying is I think a lot of liquid funds miss this and crypto natives.
他们错过了这些异常值。
They miss these outliers.
他们一直是长期持有者，这没问题。
They've been bear holds, which is fine.
而且我觉得他们是下一批边际买家。
And I think they're the next marginal buyers.
然后我觉得会有聪明的、高净值的个人投资者配置到ETF，还有华尔街那边的大型机构配置者，最后是散户。
Then I think you get smart, high net worth individuals allocating to ETFs and larger institutional allocators kind of like down here in Wall Street and then retail.
所以这就是我心目中下一批边际买家的画像。
So that's kind of like my next marginal buyer profile.
我觉得加密货币原生用户全面配置大概已经走了一半了。
I think we're about halfway to the end of crypto natives being fully allocated.
我还是觉得有很多人在场外观望。
Like, I still think there's a lot of sideline people.
我说得对吗？
Am I right?
我说错了吗？
Am I wrong?
我总是在想，接下来谁会买。
Like, I'm always trying think about who's buying next.
我就是在琢磨，未来几个月到一年会是什么样子。
And I'm just trying to think about, you know, what that may look like over the coming months to year.
我觉得这很难说，对吧？很难搞清楚。
I would say you kind of can't Like it's hard to figure that out, right?
确实很难理解。
Like it's hard to understand.
特别是，我觉得在加密推特上经常被忽略的是，那里有很多声音很大的人，其中一些人持有相当大的仓位，而且说话很有分量。
Like especially I think what gets lost a lot of times with crypto Twitter is like there's like really loud people on there and like some of them like have fairly large like positions and mouth shape.
但有大量的资金根本没有参与其中，即使在加密圈子里也是如此。
But there's like an incredible amount of money that just like is not participating in there like even in the crypto universe.
所以，你可能会误以为在加密推特上看到的一切都代表了资金流向。
So like it's you can get lost thinking that everything you're seeing on crypto Twitter is like indicative of like where the flows are.
我之所以特别清楚这一点，是因为我在2017年左右的四五年里运营过一个场外交易柜台，那在我看来仍然是我们经历过的最大的牛市。
And the only reason I know this like particularly is because like I ran an OTC trading desk for four or five years through like 2017, which was in my still opinion, like the greatest bull market we've gone through.
那些你根本不知道是谁的参与者，他们动用的资金量是巨大的。
Like the the amount of money that would be moved by participants that you have no idea who they are is like tremendous.
而且这比你平时看到的所有公开交易都要大得多。
And it like dwarfs like the lit stuff that you're like seeing all the time.
所以，那些东西你永远不会有很好的能见度。
So like that's like just like and that stuff you're never gonna have like good visibility into.
所以玩这个游戏很难。
So it's hard to play that game.
我觉得说这些有任何机构采用，现在还是个笑话。
I would say like the idea of like there being like institutional adoption of any of this stuff is like pretty still a joke.
真的没有，人们不会把这些东西放在任何大型机构的资产负债表上。
Like there's really not like people are not putting this stuff on balance sheet at any of like the larger sort of like places.
也许你在一些风投基金里看到了一些炒作，但在传统的资本配置大户那里，你还没看到。
Like maybe you've gotten hype in like a fair like number of like venture books, but you do not see it in like traditional sort of larger allocators of capital yet.
唯一能稍微打破这个局面的，就是IBID。
Like the only thing that can make an argument that's breached that a little is like IBID.
而且那还得花上几年时间才能实现。
And like that's still taking a couple of years to get that.
所以这一切可能还会带来很大的推动力。
So there's like a big tailwind of all of that potentially coming in still.
而且这需要很长时间
And that takes a very long time
才能落地。
to move.
所以这是个跨多年的事情。
So that's like a multi year thing.
这不是说我想在2027年以5000美元的价格卖掉我的Zcash，对吧？
That's not like I'm trying to get out of my Zcash at like 5,000 in 2027, right?
听起来你还是觉得它会来。
It still sounds like you think it's coming.
那你觉得要克服的障碍是什么？
Like what do you think is the obstacle to overcome?
时间。
Time.
总是时间的问题，对吧？
It's always time, right?
就是，人们需要时间去适应。
Like it's like, just, it takes people get used to it.
我们生活在一个变化如此之快的世界里。
We live in this world where stuff's moving so fast.
我觉得我们忽略了这一点。
I think we lose sight of like the idea.
这就像我们之前聊到的，比如你去接孩子时和他们聊天，他们讨论的那些事情。
Like it's like, this goes back to the conversation we had with like about you talking to your kids at like pickup and like the stuff like they're discussing.
他们就是没有跟上。
It's just, they're not plugged in.
如果你给他们看FOMO应用，他们会说，这什么玩意儿？
If you showed them the FOMO app, they'd be like, the fuck is this?
这对他们来说完全是陌生的。
It's completely foreign to them.
所以让他们慢慢习惯拥有比特币需要很长时间，更不用说以太坊了。
So for them to just get comfy with owning Bitcoin is taking a very long time, let alone like ETH.
然后你可能会说，这是Solana，这都需要时间。
And then you'd be like, here's Solana and like, it it takes time.
而且这一切都在慢慢推进，逐渐发生。
And like, it's all like working slowly and happening.
我觉得我比一般参与者要乐观一些，当谈到我认为这一切正在发生的地方时。
Like, I'm less pessimistic than I think your average sort of participant when you talk about where I think it's like all happening.
只是人们的时间观念太短了。
It's just people's people's timelines are so short.
你提到以太坊和Solana很有意思，因为那正是我们在杠铃理论中可能遗漏的部分。
It's funny that you mentioned though, ETH and Solana, because that that was sort of the gap that I think we were missing in this barbell thesis.
比如Zcash和比特币，
Like the Zcash Bitcoin,
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现在大家都特别看好Solana。
Everybody's hard in Solana.
就是……
It's like
但是，ETH被批评已经很久了。
But everybody, well, ETH has been hit on for a very long time.
比如两年前，Solana好像是唯一值得持有的东西。
Like Solana was like the only thing you should own last like two years ago.
我的意思是，人们对这些东西的看法变得很快。
Like I'm just saying, like people change their minds on this stuff like very quickly.
所以，是的。
And so yeah.
你觉得这种情况会持续下去吗？这些项目还有催化剂和动力吗？
You think that this is going to continue in, there is, like, there is kind of, like, still catalyst and momentum in these things.
尽管说实话，从加密货币原住民的角度来看，感觉我们已经玩过这个游戏了。
Even though, frankly, from, like, the crypto native standpoint, it feels like it's like, we've played that game.
已经被玩透了。
It's been ran through.
从外部来看，机构投资者还没有真正入场，那股推动力还在，因为这是一个更长期的游戏。
Like, from the outside looking in, the institutions still haven't really like, that tailwind still exists because it's a it's a much longer game.
好吧，他是在什么价位买入的？
Well, got him to eat at what?
2017年50美元买入，看到Soul在1.5美元。
$50 in 2017 and saw Soul at a dollar 50.
所以现在就像，你懂我的意思吗？
So now it's just like you know what I mean?
感觉他们错过了。
It feels like they're missing.
现在可是个大资产了。
There was a big assets now.
就像他们……
Like they're
大约一百零五万亿美元的资产。
A $105,100,000,000,000 sort of dollar assets.
它们不会动。
Like they don't move.
它们不会一夜之间翻三倍。
They're not gonna triple on you overnight.
所以我觉得这也是为什么加密圈的人风险承受能力高，觉得这个没意思。
So I think that's like part of also like why people are like crypto Twitter is like level of like risk tolerance is like, this is not interesting to
对。
me.
确实是这样。
Guess is true.
如果你喜欢，
If you like,
你会觉得，
you're like,
对，没错，确实是这样。
yeah, well, no, it's true.
如果你说比特币会涨到10万，大家可能会觉得，那也就涨个20%。
If you'd be like, Bitcoin is gonna go to 100,000 people like, I don't know, that's like a 20%.
这种涨幅其实不太吸引我。
Like, that's not really that interested me.
但问题在于，它吸引的是完全不同的一群人，对吧？
But like, it's just, it's so had had, it just take a different pool of people, right?
但如果你去找一个管理着几十亿资产的配置经理，跟他说，我们认为这个东西未来五年能比股票多赚三个半百分点的收益。
But if you go to like, an asset allocator who's like running a couple billion dollars and be like, we think this thing can do three and a half percent over equities for the next five years.
他会说，那挺好的。
Be like, all right, that's great.
非常喜欢。
Like, love that.
这完全是另一个世界。
It's just like a different world.
所以我想问的问题，简单来说就是，我真的看不出以太坊或者索拉纳这些有什么投资逻辑，因为感觉它们卡在中间了。
And so I guess what my question is to like put it succinctly, I don't really see the the, you know, thesis for, like, an Ether or Solana or, like, you know, these kinds of things because it feels like they've got caught in the middle.
但也许它们不需要什么逻辑。
But maybe the cat and maybe they don't need one.
也许它们真的不需要什么真正的投资逻辑或催化剂，只需要看。
Maybe they don't really need, like, a real thesis or catalyst other than, like, look.
它们的市值和规模已经达到一定程度，有一些机构资金有能力投入，因为它们不觉得这有风险。
They're they are of a market cap and of a size where there is some institutional money that is, like, capable of deploying them into because they don't see it as risky.
好。
Okay.
所以你现在跟我说的，正好是你之前说的另一面，你说，如果你想指出某个东西太拥挤了，对吧？
So what you're telling me right now is exactly the other side of the coin of where you're saying, well, you wanna tell something's crowded, right?
如果你想指出某个东西不拥挤，那是因为没人能想出理由为什么你应该持有它。
Like if you wanna tell something's not crowded, it's because nobody can figure out a reason why you should own this thing.
我喜欢这个说法。
I like it.
这还是要看估值。
It's still versus this evaluation.
我喜欢这个观点。
I like it.
因为它们有价值。
Because they're valuable.
它们有——我之前肯定聊过这个，但就像BNB那样，对吧？
They have I've had this conversation definitely, but like this happened with BNB, right?
当它刚开始暴涨的时候，CZ说我们要做IEO，你得持有BNB才能参与。
When it first like hockey stick up where CZ was like, we're gonna do IEOs and you need to have BNB to do it.
然后突然之间，BNB就有了一种货币属性，你必须用它来做这件事，结果它就一飞冲天了。
And like suddenly BNB had this like moneyness to it where it was like, you needed to do this thing and it rocketed.
ETH在ICO和后来的DeFi时代也有过这种情况，因为它基本上就是你在系统内部使用的资产。
ETH had it with ICOs and then DeFi because it was like the asset you were basically using like inside the system.
然后Solana也有过，因为它成了交易模因币的储备货币。
And then Solana had it because it was the reserve currency to trade like meme coins.
而且有大量的资金被锁定在这些池子里。
And there was so much of it getting locked in like these like pools.
这些第一层网络尤其有很多应用场景，让原生资产变得极其有用。
These L1s in particular have a lot of like surface area of like where the native assay can become like incredibly useful.
我觉得这最终就是你买入的东西。
And I think that's like ultimately like what you're buying.
明白了。
Got it.
这让我对以太坊更加看好了。
That just made me so bullish, Eth.
它们
They
有价值是有原因的。
have value for a reason.
我完全同意。
I absolutely agree.
我就是说不清楚到底哪里不对劲。
I just couldn't really put my finger on it.
但是，Dan，你看，我不想持有这些币，我对Sui、Aptos这些名字没有意见，还有很多L2，比如Optimism代币，还有很多支持过这个频道的项目，我就不点名了。
But then, Dan, look, I don't wanna own, and I nothing against these names, Sui, Aptos, a lot of these l twos, Optimism token, a lot of these names that even supported the channel that I'm not gonna name.
我就是不想持有这些币。
Like, I just don't wanna own these names.
哦，对。
Oh, yeah.
我甚至觉得Monad也是个难搞的项目。
Must be I I would even argue that Monad is a tough name.
所以，Monad的投资逻辑是什么？
So, like, what's the Monad thesis here?
为什么Monad值得买？
Like, why is Monad a buy?
为什么Monad值得持有？
Why is Monad a hold?
那你为什么这么看好它？
Like, why are you so bullish?
我觉得他们会不断迭代，直到找到某种价值回馈机制给到代币。
I think they're gonna consistently iterate on the thing until they give some value accrual mechanism back to the token.
而且我觉得他们会一直这么做下去。
And I think they're just like gonna do it forever.
他们唯一的风险就是可能在完成之前钱就烧完了。
And like their only risk is that they run out of money before they can get it done.
他们有几个……
Couple of They
确实。
do.
他们可能还能再去融资。
They could go raise more probably.
我觉得他们会不停地尝试迭代，直到做出点成绩来。
Think they're gonna incessantly keep trying to iterate on it until they get it somewhere.
但那些其他的L1呢，它们是不是也……
But what about these other L1s and Like are
它们其实都有类似的情况，这得看情况，对吧？
they They all sort of have this Well, it depends, right?
它们其实都面临同样的风险，对吧？
Like they all have sort of the same risk, right?
你的风险就是创始团队可能会厌倦，不想再继续干了。
Like your risk is that the founding team gets fed up and no longer wants to do it.
然后就是人员流失，或者他们真的把钱烧光了，然后就没有什么能支撑它了。
And like there's just attrition or like they actually just like run out of money and then like there's nothing really sort of supporting it.
基本上，这些项目就是这两种死法。
Like those are like the two ways that these things sort of like die.
但只要看看Toly，对吧？
But as long as like, look at Toly, right?
他一直在推特上活跃，而且他几乎参与了项目的每一个方面，我能看到的，对吧？
Like he's on Twitter constantly and the guy is involved in every asset of the thing that I can seemingly see, right?
他好像对上面的每个项目都很上心。
Like he cares about every project on it in some way.
而且他的人生使命就是……其实他早就不用这么做了。
And he's like, life mission is to like make He doesn't have to be doing that anymore.
这家伙的钱多得跟上帝似的。
Like the guy's got more money than God.
他根本不需要掺和这些，但他就是不停地折腾，一直迭代。
Like he doesn't need to be like in this, but he's incessantly gonna keep iterating on it.
我觉得这算是Solana长期的一个价值点。
I think that's like a value prop for Solana like long term.
对。
Yep.
对。
Yep.
好的。
Okay.
人们
People
会很担心，因为他们没法立刻看出价值到底从哪里来。
get very concerned because they can't immediately see like where the value accrual comes in.
但这和以太坊刚出来第一年时人们说的是一样的，他们当时也在问，我为什么要持有这个资产？
But like this was the same argument people made about ETH for like the first year of its life where they're like, why do I need to own the asset?
我直接用智能合约不就行了。
I can just do smart contracts.
好像我根本不需要用这个原生代币做什么。
Like I don't need to like actually like use the native token for anything.
然后就有了ICO热潮，价格一下子暴涨。
And then like you had this ICO boom and like suddenly hockey sticked up like tremendously.
它也因此获得了一些价值。
And like it gained some like money, like quality.
所以我也说不准。
So I don't know.
我只是觉得，我对这些L1能实现什么来把价值拉回代币上，看法更宽泛一些。
I just like, I'm a little broader in scope of what I think these L1s can like accomplish to get value pull back to the token.
有意思的是你提到货币属性，ETH在ICO时期差不多就是基础资产，DeFi时期稍微弱一点。
It's it's funny that what you mentioned about the moneyness too, like, ETH kinda had that as, like, the base asset for ICOs and then DeFi to a lesser extent.
我很好奇你怎么看这个，因为ETH是在去中心化的模式下做到的，大家默认把它当作原生资产。
And I'm curious what you think about this because the ETH kinda did it in, a decentralized format where people sort of defaulted to that as the native asset.
有些公司做得更直接，比如Chainlink。
There's other companies that do this a little bit more directly, like Chainlink.
就是好奇。
Just curious.
比如，用更中心化的方式来做。
Like, do it in a more centralized way.
我觉得大家都知道，他们有一个完整的BD团队。
And I think everyone is aware that, you know, they were they had a whole BD team.
他们到处去谈合作，但关键是他们要求你用Link来支付。
They were going out closing deals, but the whole thing was that they made you pay in link.
所以它不是程序化的，但仍然是使用他们的货币作为支付或货币的一种形式。
So it wasn't program programmatic or anything, but it was still using their currency as a form of payment or money.
你觉得那些，尽管更中心化，它们有机会吗？
Do you think those, despite being more centralized, have a do they stand a chance?
它们有理由主张货币性吗？
Do they have a case to make for moneyness?
我觉得过去三四年加密货币历史的大的走向是，我们对中心化以及监管足迹，还有作为用户对这些东西，已经变得非常习惯了。
I think like the big, the arc of sort of like crypto's history over the last three or four years is that like, we've just become like tremendously much more comfortable with like centralization and sort of like on a regulatory footprint and just like also as a user with these things.
所以我觉得这是一个大趋势，人们期望Solana去做一些事情，对吧？
So I think that's like a big trend that you're seeing where people expect Solana to like do things, right?
而不是像一个不干预的市场参与者。
Not like be a hands off sort of like market participant.
我觉得Ethan在这方面特别挣扎，因为他们有去中心化的理念，所以他们不会深入细节，也不会选择赢家，这是不对的，但应该更积极地参与链上建设。
I think Ethan struggled with this in particular because they had such ethos of the decentralization that they like don't get in the weeds and like sort of not not pick winners is like the wrong thing, but like get more active sort of in what's being built on the chains.
这对他们长期来说是不利的。
And that's like good to their like, that's hurt them longer term.
当然，刚开始的时候，第一层链基本上都是由基金会和创始团队在运营。
Like, like obviously when you first get started, like so much of like the L1 is just like run by the foundation and like the sort of the team that built it.
然后随着时间的推移，你试图去中心化它。
And like over time you try to like decentralize it.
但我们现在对中心化已经非常习惯了，比如Hype就是一个很好的例子，对吧？
But we've gotten incredibly more comfortable with like, I mean, Hype's a great example of this, right?
它实际上就是中心化的，但我们完全能接受。
Like, I mean, it's effectively centralized, but we're very okay with
它好像就四个节点什么的。
It's four nodes or something.
我觉得大家都挺能接受的。
Everybody's I very comfortable with think so.
但产品确实好，我们也愿意接受这种权衡。
But it's a great product and we're okay with that sort of trade off.
我完全理解你的意思。
I totally feel you.
我觉得是这样，而且老兄，这导致了整个领域的放弃。
I thought it was And dude, this led to this abandonment of the space.
然后这种，嗯，有个术语来形容。
And this kind of like There's a term for it.
就像是身份危机，对吧？
It's like this identity crisis, right?
而我们为这个世界建了所有这些产品，但几乎没人真正用过它们。
Whereas like we built all of this for this world, all of these products, No one really used them.
好吧。
Alright.
哎呀，糟糕。
Well, shit.
我们最好做点能被用起来的东西，不管是中心化的，还是半去中心化的，随便什么。
We better build something that is gonna get used, whether it's centralized or, you know, quasi decentralized, whatever.
我们得做点什么了。
We gotta, like, do something.
稳定币、代币化资产、永续合约、预测市场。
Stablecoins, tokenized assets, perps, prediction markets.
这些东西差不多都是从那个身份危机时期衍生出来的。
All these things kind of, like, stemmed from this, like, identity crisis era.
差不多过去这两年，兄弟，就算是在牛市，甚至上一轮牛市，人们也都受够了这一切，你知道吗？
Almost like the last two years, man, has been even in the bull, even last bull, people were just kind of fed up with all of it, you know?
所以，是的，我是说，我就是想把这个中间交易的部分收个尾。
And so, yeah, I mean, I just wanted to close-up the loop the loop on the kind of the middle trade.
所以我把L1、L2都放进去了。
So I put the L1s, the L2s in there.
还有像ZK这样的桥接。
There's also like bridges like ZK.
ZK，还有互操作性，还有你叫得上名字的各种基础设施，它们对整个运作至关重要，但就是不赚钱。
ZK and like interrupt and, you know, name your kind of infra stack that's like crucially important to the whole operation of what we're doing here, but like makes no money.
市值在五千万到一亿五千万之间。
Has a market cap between 50 and 150,000,000.
它们基本上已经解锁完了，或者现在也快到尾声了。
They're kind of, you know, gone through their unlocks or they're close to the end now.
那它们会怎么样呢？
What happens to them?
我觉得这要看情况，对吧？
I think it depends, right?
这取决于团队。
It depends on the team.
看他们是想继续迭代，还是想继续推进，开发新功能和产品。
If they want to continue to iterate on it, if they want to keep moving forward and building new functionality and products.
其实很多这样的项目，你得记住，我们常常忘了，因为这些东西有价格，我们就把它们当成大型的流动性公司来对待。
It really is like, it's a lot of these You have to remember, I think we forget because there's a price on this stuff and we kind of treat them like larger liquid sort of companies.
但它们本质上就是初创公司，应该不断调整方向，不断改变自己做的事情。
But these things are basically startups and they should be pivoting and changing what they're doing constantly.
而且很多项目，尤其是那些最成功的，确实一直在这么做。
And a lot of them have, a lot of the most successful ones have.
比如Ondo就是一个很好的例子。
Like Ondo is a great example of that.
它一开始并不是做RWA资产这类东西的。
Like that thing did not start out as a RWA asset sort of thing.
我们刚开始做的时候，它好像是一种对冲IL和LP池的方式。
Like that was a God, when we first were doing it, they had like, I think it was a way to like hedge IL and like LP pools.
然后他们就这么随意地彻底改变了方向。
And they just like completely changed it on a whim.
他们确实这么做了。
And they Yep.
那是一次很棒的转型。
It was a great sort of pivot.
所以如果团队愿意坚持下去，不觉得这就是最终产品，而且继续融资，那你就想持有这些团队，想从中获得收益。
So if the teams are willing to like see it out and not be like, this is the finished product and they continue to raise, you wanna like own those teams and you want like the upside on it.
我之前被批评了一下，因为我说那些还在摸索转型、应该把所有钱都投入到增长中的团队，不应该有代币。
I got I got torched a little bit because I said those teams that are still figuring out pivoting and, you know, should be pouring all their money into growth shouldn't have tokens.
你觉得，如果他们还在摸索增长模式，他们应该在流动市场上发行代币吗？
Do you think, you know, they should have do you think they should have a token in the liquid market if they're still in figured out growth mode?
不应该。
They shouldn't.
我觉得我们已经过了那个阶段了。
I think we are past like that.
其实，我们可能也有责任。
I mean, like, we're probably like at fault for some of this too.
因为以前我们只要有代币的项目就投，但这种情况可能得停止了。
Because like we would just invest in anything with a token, but like that like has probably got to stop.
我的意思是，现在市场对这类东西已经没有兴趣了。
I mean, when we there's see no interest in it anymore.
确实是这样。
Like it is.
我们正在处理这个阶段的尾声。
We're working through the tail end of it.
丹，咱们直接聊点有意思的吧。
So Dan, I'd like to just get to the fun stuff, man.
我是说，我真的很欣赏你整套的投资组合理论和市场观点。
I mean, I really appreciate the whole kind of portfolio thesis and market theory here.
但是哥们，我们在Robinhood上把模因币和股票配对，还在股市上疯狂炒作单只股票，把那些经营了几十年的老牌公司都惹毛了。
But dude, we're pairing meme coins with stocks on Robinhood shame and pumping the shit out of single name equities on the stock market, pissing off
这真是个非常糟糕的主意。
single That's a that's a really bad idea.
那些支撑着我们电影院的老牌公司。
Multi decade long companies that power our movie theaters.
好吧。
Okay.
哥们，这到底是怎么回事？
What the dude, what's going on?
有句话说得挺对的，具体怎么说我忘了，大概就是当你终于成功，和那些大人物同处一室时，你得表现得像自己属于那里一样。
There's like a really fair I forgot how the exact phrase goes, but it's like when you finally make it and you're in the room with people, you need to act like you belong.
而加密货币在这方面真的很糟糕。
And crypto is just really bad at this.
我们进来的时候，终于能跟人正常交流、做点正事了，结果又自己搞砸了。
We come in and we just it's like finally, like we're like having conversations with people and like doing things and then we just ruin it for ourselves.
我们就像小孩子一样胡闹。
Like we just like act like children.
在加密货币圈里瞎折腾是一回事。
And it's one thing to be like fucking around in crypto.
但把这套玩法带到另一个市场，那完全是另一回事了。
It's like a completely other thing to be like transcending that into like another market.
我们真的应该暂时别这么干了。
Like we really need to not do that for a while.
我觉得我们得认清自己的位置，好好表现。
Like we need to like know our role and like sort of play nicely is my guess.
我们不应该因为FOMO之类的情绪，就让股票出现200%的波动。
Like we should, there should not be like 200% equity moves that are tied because of something going on like on FOMO.
那是个坏事，那真的是个坏事。
Like that's a bad, that is a bad thing.
我觉得他们
I think they
我觉得他们大部分时候已经搞明白了。
I think they figured it out for the most part.
看起来他们在非交易时段库存很低，然后等市场重新开盘后，他们通过大量铸造股票来补上库存。
Like it seemed like they had really low inventory during off market hours, and then they armed it back by minting a ton of the the stock once the market reopened.
然后接下来的那个周末，他们提前铸造了大量代币化股票，这样他们就不会有低库存的问题，也能应付得了。
And then then following weekend, they just pre minted a ton of tokenized stock so that, you know, they didn't have that low inventory and they were able to service that.
价格没有变得太离谱。
Prices didn't get super disjointed.
但你觉得，既然Robinhood现在看起来有点可持续性危机，
But do you think like, because now that Robinhood seemingly has a little bit of a sustainability crisis.
他们的交易量比刚推出时还要低。
There's, like, lower volumes there than they've had since they launched.
你觉得Robinhood链的可持续性怎么样？
How sustainable do you think Robinhood chain is?
你觉得是不是已经榨干了？
Do you think it's been like that juice has been squeezed?
还有，你整体上是怎么看待代币化股票这件事的？
And like how how how do you approach the whole tokenized equity thing in general?
我觉得代币化股票会长期直线上涨。
I think tokenized equities are just gonna go straight up for a very long time.
而且我觉得实际情况比你们想的还要更不一样。
And I think it's different actually further than the reason you guys think it is.
对我们来说，交易这些就像直接交易股票一样，对吧？
Trading them for like you and me, like we can just go like trade equities, right?
我们其实不用多想。
It's not like we don't really have to think about it.
你直接上普通的Robinhood就能交易。
You can just go on a Robinhood regular and sort of trade it.
链上确实有价值，尤其是如果能把它接入DeFi的其他组件的话。
Like there's value to having an on chain especially if you can like plug it into like other components of DeFi.
或者如果能随时随地进行交易，那看起来就非常有用。
Or if you can sort of like just access a constant twenty four seven that looks like very useful.
但这些东西真正厉害的地方在于，世界上有很大一部分人根本买不了美股，对吧？
But what's incredibly useful with this stuff is there's an entire like portion of the world that like cannot purchase US equities, right?
对。
Yes.
这其实很像Tether是怎么火起来的，对吧？
This is very much like it's akin to how like Tether got really big, right?
因为如果你看Tether的固定价值，你会想，这玩意儿有什么用？
Because if you like look at Tether at fixed value, you're like, why do I need this?
我现在就能给别人付钱啊。
Like I can like pay people now.
我直接用Venmo就行了。
Like I can just use Venmo.
我当时就想，这是啥意思？
Like I was like, is that?
我不明白。
I don't understand.
然后他们说，不，你忽略了重点。
And it's like, no, like you're missing the force here.
世界上有一部分人想要美元，但没法拥有。
Like the there's a portion of the world that wants dollars that can't own it.
还有更大一部分人想买英伟达的股票，但因为各种原因买不了。
There's a there's an even bigger portion of like the world that wants to own Nvidia but can't own it for like a whole bunch of reasons.
如果我们能把它代币化，让它成为一种可持有的资产，那会非常强大。
And if we can suddenly like tokenize that and like let it be a bear asset, that's like incredibly powerful.
这对美国公司来说也极其有利。
And it's also incredibly powerful for like US companies.
因为突然之间，你就有了一个庞大的资本基础，你可以利用它，而且几乎不用给他们治理权，这真的非常非常有用。
Because suddenly you have an entire capital base like open to you that you can effectively like have without giving them really governance, which is like super, super useful.
所以我觉得这对美国公司是有利的，而且我觉得这会非常庞大。
So I think this is like beneficial to US companies and I think it's gonna be gigantic.
我觉得这会比稳定币还要大。
I think it's gonna be bigger than stablecoins.
我猜你看了CNBC上Vlad那段简短的视频，他谈到这个的时候有点坐立不安。
I mean, so I take it you watched the quick Vlad clip on CNBC of him talking about this because he was kind of squirming.
当他说出你刚才说的那些话时，制片人和主持人才终于明白了。
And when he said what you just said, the producers and the hosts finally understood.
他们当时就说，哦，原来如此。
They were like, oh, okay.
所以你们不只是想通过不让股票在真正的券商那里交易来骗上市公司的CEO，对吧？
So you guys aren't just, like, trying to scam public company CEOs by not having their stock be purchased on the actual brokerage where it actually helps them.
你们是在为这些公司打开整个潜在市场，面向全球的外国投资者。
You guys are opening up the whole TAM for these companies to be the global foreign investor base.
哦，所以你们实际上是在帮我们为那些从股票上市就一直持有的老投资者提供更多的退出流动性。
Oh, so you guys are gonna actually help us get more exit liquidity for the boomers who've been riding these stocks since their inception.
我觉得那不是任何人的协处理器。
I don't think that's anybody's coprocessor.
哦，好的。
Oh, okay.
嗯，这整件事一直都是这样。
Well, that's been the whole that's been the whole thing.
就像，人们谈论美国最大的出口产品。
Like, people talk about the greatest export of The United States.
我们这里不制造任何东西，但我们出口美元。
We don't make anything here, but we export the dollar.
现在我们把这个扩展到股票市场。
Now we're extending that to the equities market.
这正在成为美国的另一个出口产品，我们的金融产品。
That is becoming another export of The United States, our financial Go
看看过去二十年里，中国版的标普500指数。
look at the the Chinese equivalent of the S and P 500 over like the last twenty years.
而且它就像一条平线。
And it's just like it's flat.
简直不可思议，持有美国公司股票在财富积累方面要好得多。
It's like incomprehendable much better like owning US companies are for like compounding wealth.
嗯，因为中国特别不愿意把钱直接给股东。
Well, because like China specifically doesn't like want to just be like giving money to like equity owners.
所以，这是结构性的，是有原因的。
So like they, it's structurally there for a reason.
不是说公司本身如此，而是这反映了我们正在向市场输出的理念，如果这能成功的话。
It's not that the companies So are like like that is like an idea of like what we're sort of like in the market exporting if this like works out.
而且会成功的。
And it will.
我觉得这一定会发生。
I think it's gonna happen.
这是个好故事。
It's a good narrative.
我们是在输出财富创造。
We're exporting wealth creation.
通过Robinhood链上的垃圾币。
Via Robinhood chain shitcoins.
但是，关于
But what about
嗯，看V币这件事，其实只是启动的一种方式，对吧？
Well, looking at the V coin thing is just how you bootstrap it, right?
因为你得第一天就让人感兴趣。
Because like you gotta get people interested like day one.
而且，这就像是一个避雷针。
And like, this is like, it's just a lightning rod.
而且这是一个快速有效的方法。
And it's like a good like fast way to do it.
但从长远来看，这真的不是什么有趣的事。
But it's it's it's really not an interesting thing longer term.
好的。
Okay.
那你怎么看代币化资产这种大趋势的增长？
Then how about this kind of just broad stroke wave of the growth of tokenized assets?
我觉得昨天链上已经达到350亿了。
I think we hit 35,000,000,000 on chain yesterday.
我看到一个来自16z crypto的帖子。
I saw a post from a 16 z crypto.
所以现在链上有效的高质量非加密资产已经达到350亿了。
So we're at 35,000,000,000 now of effectively high quality non crypto assets.
不过，其中一半是不是像Circle那种债券产品？
Like, half that, though, like like, Circle's, like, bond thing?
其中很多是国债。
A lot of it is like treasury.
它们是国债。
They're treasury.
代币化国债基金。
Tokenized treasury fund.
贝莱德的。
Black Rocks.
但我想大家可能会问的是，你知道，我们预期这会是一条直线上升的曲线，就像你之前说的代币化股票那样。
But I guess what what any might be asking is like, you know, we we anticipate that this is gonna be a straight line up, similar to what you said about tokenized equities.
我们买什么？
What do we buy?
比如，谁会是这些资金流向链上的受益者？
Like, Who beneficiaries are of that to flow to the chains?
这就对了。
There we go.
协议。
Protocols.
拜托，老兄。
Come on, man.
这和人们对待稳定币的问题是一样的，对吧？
It's the same problem people have with stablecoins, right?
比如在Circle上市之前，确实没有什么好的方式来参与这个交易。
Like until Circle got public, there really wasn't a good way to put that trade on.
好的。
Okay.
所以这是个好问题。
So that's a good question.
你可能会想持有它们所在的L1链。
And you're gonna Maybe you wanna own the L1s they sit on.
也许这就是所有收益的来源，我也不确定。
Maybe that's like I where it's all come out, don't know.
也许我的意思是，预言机可能在其中有一些价值。
Maybe that's what I mean, the Oracles probably have some value in it.
我的意思是，显然像发行方，你知道，其中一些是公开的，可以参与进去。
I mean, there's obviously like the issuers like you know, some of those are sort of public to get into it.
我不知道。
I don't know.
我觉得这就是个大问题。
I think that's like the big question.
我觉得很多钱都会花在搞清楚谁能在这些事上胜出。
I think that's like where a lot of money is gonna be made is figuring out like who wins this stuff.
可能还会有很多现在还不存在的东西。
It'll probably be a bunch of stuff that doesn't exist yet too.
真的吗？
Really?
真的吗？
Really?
为什么不会呢？
Why not?
链上业务这部分，不是指那些硬通货，而是链上的商业应用，我觉得这部分从所谓的行业合法化中受益最大，比如特朗普说流动性过剩，还有CFTC主持创新咨询委员会，所有行业领袖都在那里握手。
Part of the on chain business, not the hard money stuff, but the on chain business stuff was like, that bucket seems to be benefiting the most from what I call the legitimization of the industry, which is like Trump saying hyper liquid and like the CFTC hosting this innovation advisory committee and all the industry leaders up there shaking hands.
就像那个房间里的那些人，他们的公司似乎就是那些从所谓的“代币化”中受益的公司。
Like, the those guys in that room, their companies seem to be the ones that are benefiting from, like, quote, unquote, tokenization.
我觉得除了稳定币发行商之外，好像还没有谁真正脱颖而出。
Don't think anybody's really like outside of the stablecoin sort of issuers is like really carved out.
现在说
It's too
还为时过早。
early to tell.
确实非常早。
It's very early.
而且我觉得目前还没有谁真正做得特别好。
And I don't think anybody's like really doing tremendously well yet.
我觉得他们以后会做得好的，但我觉得真正能赚大钱的地方在于搞清楚这到底会带来什么，比如它的连锁反应是什么。
I think they will, but I think that's like where a lot of money's gonna be made is figuring out like what this like has, like what are the knock on effects of it?
比如说，看看Abe，对吧？
I mean like, look at Abe, right?
就像Abe应该……
Like Abe should
这正是我想说的。
That's be the I was gonna say.
我想说的是Abe。
Was gonna say Abe.
但是还有更多类似的情况，而且我实际上认为，如果这些L1上需要发生更多的事情，它们会迎来复苏。
But like there's more foe and like I actually think the L1s will have like a resurgence there if there's like a tremendous amount more that has to happen on them.
是的，比如数万亿美元的资产上链，稳定币、国库券、货币市场基金、股票等等。
Yeah, like trillions of dollars of assets coming on chain, stablecoins, T bills, money market funds, equities, etcetera.
你知道，它们总得有个去处。
You know, they need to live somewhere.
它们上链后，最终会进入这些链上协议，然后这些链上协议的可寻址市场（TAM）会重新估值，带来更多活动、更多总锁仓量（TVL）、更多费用、更多收益、更多回购。
And they go on chain, so they end up in these on chain protocols, and then the TAMs of these on chain protocols rerates, and it's more activity, more TVL, more fees, more earnings, more buybacks.
所以一切都会表现不错，但问题一如既往在于谁的表现更突出。
So everything does well, but as always question is outperformance.
嗯，这其实一直是个问题，对吧，好吧。
Well, this was like always the thing, right, when alright.
所以DeFi建起来了，但实际上只是为现有的加密代币服务。
So like DeFi gets built, but it's like really just for like existing crypto tokens.
但如果突然有资产，人们想长期持有，而不仅仅是交易，并且给他们同样的基础设施呢？
But like what if you now suddenly had like assets people were like looking to like actually hold for like longer term periods of time and not just like on a trade and like gave them the same infrastructure.
我不知道。
I don't know.
我觉得这非常有用。
I think that's like very useful.
对。
Yep.
绝对。
Absolutely.
丹，我想在这里做个总结，问问你，你认为社交交易会发展成什么样？
Dan, I just wanted to kind of close out here and ask you about what you think social trading evolves into.
你用FOMO了吗？
Have you used FOMO yet?
你下载了吗？
Have you downloaded it?
用了。
I have.
那还用说。
Come on.
你觉得怎么样？哦，对。
What's your kind of what's oh, yeah.
那当然。
Duh.
我跟着你操作了那个。
I tailed you on that
哦，
Oh,
模因币。
Meme coin.
Chog。
Chog.
不。
No.
不是投资建议。
Not financial advice.
那这玩意儿能走到哪一步，兄弟？
So where does this go, man?
因为我刚拉了几个朋友进来。
Because I just onboarded a couple friends.
我给他们每人发了大概四五百美元的模因币，其中几个人的账户已经翻了三倍到四倍了。
I've sent them each, like, 4 or $500 of memes, and a couple of them have already tripled to quadrupled their account.
他们都是狂热的体育博彩老手。
They're avid chronic sports gamblers.
我是说，真的，每周，每天。
Like, I'm talking, like, every week, every day.
我是说，我和这些人一起旅行，我醒来是为了做多垃圾币。
I mean, I've I travel with these guys, and I wake up to get long shitcoins.
他们醒来是为了下注。
They wake up to place parlays.
事情就是这样。
That's just what happens.
我比他们有钱多了。
I'm far wealthier.
我不是想显得傲慢，但世界就是这样运作的。
I'm not trying to be an arrogant dick about it, but that's just how how the world works.
明白吗？
Okay?
所以我就跟他们说，兄弟们，就是现在了。
And so I'm like, guys, like, this is it.
我是说，这里有人赚了100倍。
I mean, there is guys hitting a 100 x's here.
你们得跟上这个，得认真考虑这件事。
You guys need to be on this, and you need to be thinking about it.
所以我给他们定了规矩。
And so I give them rules.
我说，不许自己存钱。
I'm like, No deposits.
我会给你们充值。
I'm going to top you guys up.
我会帮你们起步。
I'm going get you guys going.
不许自己存钱。
No deposits.
要一直卖。
Always be selling.
永远留一个‘月亮包’。
Always leave a moon bag.
持续把低市值币种的收益轮动到高市值币种，逐步建立基础。
Rotate your gains from low caps into higher cap coins consistently and build a foundation.
开始把它当作一个投资组合来看，而不是一次性押注，比如搞个+500的串关。
Start thinking about this as a portfolio, not as a one time, let me smash a plus 500 parlay.
赢了就赚一笔，输了就全亏光。
If it hits, I make a blah, or if it loses, I lose it all.
所以我当时想，你知道，把视野拉远，用组合思维来看，虽然我们聊的是模因币。
And so I was trying to, you know, zoom them out, portfolio thinking, well, we're talking about memes here.
这听起来挺傻的。
Like, this is so silly.
但这就是我目前的实际经历。
But that's kind of my current experience so far.
我很好奇，你觉得这一切会走向何方。
Just curious, like, where you think this all goes.
很明显，它会一直存在。
It's clearly here to stay.
我觉得它可能就是在蚕食其他地方的现有赌博形式。
I I think it, like, just is cannibalizing probably existing forms of gambling elsewhere.
我觉得基本上就是这样。
Like, I think that's pretty much what it is.
它就像是体育博彩或某些赌场游戏的替代品，而且很多杠杆交易其实也是赌博。
Like, it's a substitute good for, like, sports betting or on some casino game or I mean a lot of perks trading is just gambling too.
所以它可能就是从那里吸引过来的。
So like it probably pulls from there.
我敢打赌，随着社交交易的活跃度上升，你会看到很多预测市场的活动在减少。
I would bet you see like a decrease in a lot of prediction market activity is as social trading activity like goes up.
我觉得它们就是从那里吸引过来的，每天都有那么一笔钱，人们想拿去赌。
Like I think they just like pull from the there's just like this whole there's like these x amount of dollars that like people are looking to like gamble with every day.
然后这笔钱就被分散到不同的地方去了。
And like it's it just gets split amongst multiple things.
我觉得体育博彩可能是最糟糕的，因为感觉对玩家特别不利。
I mean, I I personally think they sports gambling is probably the worst of it just because it seems so stacked against you.
但人们想怎么花自己的钱都行。
But like people can do whatever they want with their money.
但我觉得这个只是把人们从那里吸引过来。
But I think this is just like pulls people from it.
难道FOMO和pump fund不是更不利吗？
Isn't isn't FOMO and pump fund like, isn't it way more stacked?
是不是只有5%的人能赚钱？
Like, isn't it like 5% people make money?
而像
Whereas like
另外，像
the other thing, like
至少45%到48%的人想取消抽成吧？
at least 48 per 45% want to take the vig out?
嗯，我觉得这不一样，是的。
Well, I think the different yeah.
所以我想区别在于，庄家在体育博彩里抽成更多。
So I guess like the difference though is, like, the house is like skimming way more in the sports Yeah.
有点像……
Sort of like
所以实际上，庄家抽成更少，但你赢的几率更高。
So actually you actually do have So the house is taking less, but you have a higher shot.
这更像买彩票，而不是体育博彩。
It's more like playing the lottery than it is like sports gambling.
这更像是一种派利分成式的投注设置。
It's like more like a para mutual sort of like betting setup.
说实话，你最好两个都别碰。
I mean, you should do neither, this would be to be honest.
我不是在推荐哪一种形式。
Like I'm not like advocating one form over the other.
哥们儿，这样才是正确的做法。
Dude, like being like this is like the proper way you should be.
两种都别指望能赚钱。
It go into both expecting you'll lose money.
丹。
Dan.
太棒了。
Awesome.
罗伯，你还有什么要说的吗？
Rob, do have anything else?
谢谢，兄弟。
Appreciate it, man.
没有了。
Nope.
就这些。
That was it.
这次真的很棒。
This was great.
谢谢你，丹。
Appreciate it, Dan.
一如既往，希望很快能再请你来。
As always, love to have you on again soon.
然后，是的。
And, yeah.
谢谢你抽出时间。
Thanks for spending some time.
太好了。
Awesome.
谢了，兄弟。
Cheers, man.
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