丹·赫尔德：SpaceX将在20年内达到10万亿美元市值（详细论点）

我就想，那我赌一把。

And I'm like, I'll take that bet.

再说，如果宇宙是个模拟器，我们重跑一百次，可能百分之二十的几率他们会失败。

Now, again, in universe simulations, if we had to rerun the universe a 100 times, maybe 20% of the time they would have failed.

当然。

Sure.

但即便如此，猎鹰九号还是能继续发射星链，那可是个万亿级别的生意。

But even with that, the Falcon nine, they can still go deliver Starlink, is a trillion dollar business.

所以即使星舰失败了，我也不太担心估值。

So I wasn't too worried about the valuation even if Starship failed.

结果星舰大获成功。

So Starship has massively been successful.

他们即将进行首次轨道发射，携带的是新型星链卫星，这些卫星是实际可用的载荷。

They're launching their first orbital launch with an actual usable payload of the new Starlinks.

所以SpaceX完全做到了。

So like SpaceX totally executed on this.

对。

Yeah.

人们不明白这将如何改变一切。

People don't understand how much this will change everything.

我的意思是，SpaceX将拥有电信业务，包括移动连接，这不仅仅是光纤的替代品。

I mean, SpaceX will own telco, including mobile connectivity, not just like, you know, this isn't a replacement for fiber.

它替代的是你的T-Mobile、AT&T和Verizon。

It's a replacement for your T Mobile, AT and T, Verizon.

然后还有国防合同这类事情。

Then you have things like defense contracts.

你有“上帝之杖”，从太空投放动能载荷。

You have rods from God dropping kinetic payloads from space.

想象一下，你可以打击伊朗的每一个目标，没有飞行员风险，而且可以在七分钟内命中，几乎不被发现。

So imagine like you could hit every target in Iran with no pilot risk and you could hit it within seven minutes with very little to no detection.

对。

Yeah.

真是挺疯狂的。

So pretty crazy.

而且你还可以做像‘聪明卵石’这样的事，这是上世纪八十年代和九十年代设想的一个项目。

And you can also do things like Brilliant Pebbles, which is a program envisioned in the 1980s and 1990s.

这基本上就是特朗普提到的‘金穹’项目。

This is essentially the golden dome project that Trump has talked about.

既然我们能探测到对手的发射，我们就可以从太空向那些洲际弹道导弹或导弹投放小型载荷，进行动能打击。

Since we can detect launches from adversaries, we can drop small payloads, kinetic bombardments onto those ICBMs or missiles from space.

哇。

Wow.

所以这将使美国在核威胁方面完全占主导地位，除了走私的核弹。

So that will give The US a complete dominance over the nuclear threat other than smuggled nukes.

所以这不仅仅是国家安全层面的，对吧？

So it's not only just like it's a national security and, like, basis I guess yeah.

不过，这相当于当年研发原子弹那样的重大突破。

This is the equivalent of developing a nuclear bomb, though.

对。

Right.

就是说，你要么有，要么没有。

Like, you either have it or you don't.

要是没有的话，就特别吃亏。

And if you don't have it, you're at a huge disadvantage.

没错。

Right.

所以美国在这方面会有大约十年的全球绝对优势，之后中国就会追上来了。

So The US will have complete global dominance in that in that way for about a decade before China catches up.

因为中国的航天项目已经相当先进了。

Because China's space program is pretty advanced.

我最近和女朋友去了国家公园。

So I was just out in the national parks, with my girlfriend.

我们在黄石和大提顿待了几天。

We were hanging out for a couple days out in Yellowstone and in the Tetons.

那里太美了。

It was beautiful.

简直太棒了。

It was epic.

当然，那里没有WiFi。

And, of course, there's no WiFi out there.

我带了小小的星链迷你版，插上电，在黄石国家公园中心的小木屋屋顶上，网速达到300兆。

Brought my little Starlink Mini, plugged it in, 300 megabits speed in the middle of Yellowstone National Park on the roof of my cabin.

很快，它就会直接连到你的手机上。

And pretty soon, it'll be right to your phone.

还有飞机上。

And on airplanes.

对。

Yep.

到处都能用，那真是太棒了。

Everywhere, which will be incredible.

而且大家还忘了机器人和物联网的连接性。

And then also people forget about the connectivity of robotics and IoT.

每一艘船、每一架飞机、每一个小型人形机器人、每一个机器人农民，等等。

Every single boat, airplane, every single little humanoid robot, every single robot farmer, etcetera.

还有这个。

There's that.

然后还有像太空计算这样的东西，对吧？

And then you have things like, you know, compute in space, right?

比如轨道数据中心。

Like orbital data centers.

显然，这今年已经成为一个非常热门的话题。

And obviously that's become a really hot narrative this year.

轨道数据中心在纸面上是合理的。

Orbital data centers make sense on paper.

你基本上是在权衡取舍。

You basically trade off.

把它送上去的资本开支更高，但运营成本就是零了。

It's a higher CapEx to get it up there, but then your OpEx is zero.

所以从成本曲线分析来看，这样做是划算的。

And so there's a cost curve analysis where that makes sense.

所以，这也很重要。

So, you know, that's huge as well.

这里有很多东西。

You got a million things here.

我随便说几个，但不会花太多时间。

I'll rattle off a couple, but I don't spend too much time.

地球观测，太空中的摄像头，监测全球。

Earth observation, cameras in space, monitoring the globe.

以前把它们送上去很贵，而且也没有连续覆盖，无法传输数据，因为数据量很大，或者进行计算，现在有了星链和星脑，这些都能实现。

Before they were really expensive to get up there, they also didn't have continuous coverage and have the ability to stream the data because it's really data intensive or do compute, which will have all of that up with Starlink and StarMind.

是的。

Yep.

然后还有像点到点这样的东西。

Then you have things like point to point.

你从纽约起飞，二十五分钟后降落在东京。

You take off in New York and land in Tokyo in twenty five minutes.

哇。

Wow.

那一定会实现的。

That will exist.

我的意思是，你就像在坐火箭一样。

I mean, you're just like you're riding a rocket.

虽然不会很舒服，但我每个月差不多要飞一次商务舱去那边出差，我肯定会第一个报名。

It won't be a comfortable ride, but I travel for business business class there for almost once a month, and I'm I'm gonna be the first one to sign up for that.

对。

Yeah.

还有很多类似的事情，你知道，如果你仔细想想，就像是在问新世界的价值是什么。当然。

Millions of other things like this, you know, and if you look at it, it's sort of like, you know, what's the value of the new world Sure.

比如说，回到以前，那是哪一年来着？

For the, you know, back in what was it?

哥伦布大概是在14世纪那会儿来的。

Columbus came in like '14 something.

对。

Mhmm.

基本上，整个南北美洲的市场规模当时还不存在。

Like, basically, the TAM of all of North And South America didn't exist.

是的。

Yeah.

现在的情况也差不多。

It's sort of the same thing.

你在太空中发现了所有这些资源。

You're discovering all these assets in space.

而这个市场规模是相当难以计算的。

And that TAM is is one pretty incalculable.

对。

Yeah.

但我们知道它很大。

But we know it's large.

小行星采矿之类的，等等等等。

Asteroid mining, etcetera, etcetera.

总之，你知道，如果你看这个并开始规划，顺便说一句，如果你想深入了解，可以看看Mach thirty three的研究。

Anyway, so, you know, if you look at this and you start to map it out by the way, if you wanna dig further into this, check out Mach thirty three's research.

好的。

Okay.

Aaron Burnett和Vlad是那背后的两个人。

Aaron Burnett and Vlad are the two guys behind that.

非常聪明。

Super brilliant.

Elon发推说，我还没见过哪家公司能做出这么好的研究，除了火箭制造商或卫星制造商。

Elon tweeted, I haven't seen a re a company produce such good research outside of a rocket manufacturer or satellite manufacturer.

所以埃隆很喜欢Mach thirty three。

So Elon loves Mach thirty three.

他们那些人真的很棒。

They're those guys are fantastic.

我和他们聊过很多次。

I've chatted a bunch with them.

是的。

Yeah.

他们在我总结TLDR叙述的时候，是的。

They while I synthesize a TLDR narrative Yeah.

他们花时间真正去做数学计算。

They spend the time to actually do the math.

对。

Yeah.

所以，是的。

So Yeah.

如果你想验证一下这个数学计算的话。

And if you wanna check the math out.

这正是我在数学方面有点好奇的地方。

That's what I'm curious a bit about on the math side.

不一定是对那些火箭、星舰、星链、机器人和IT方面的，而是更多在投资方面。

Not necessarily about, like, about all the rockets and the, you know, the Starship and the Starlink and the robots and IT, but more on the investment side.

这里的投资数学是什么样的？

What is the investment math here?

比如，显然你进入得非常早。

Like, obviously you're in extremely early.

我觉得现在股票市值已经达到数万亿美元了，大概两万五千亿左右，或者三万亿美元？

I think the stock's trading multiple trillion dollar valuation now, two and a half ish or something, three ish maybe?

是的，我会这么说。

Yeah, would say.

稍微少一点。

A little less.

但我的意思是，不是预测价格或股价，而是当然。

But what's, I mean, not price prediction or stock price prediction, but Sure.

如果你的理论是对的，给我们讲讲你对SpaceX的乐观和悲观看法吧。

If your thesis is right, give us, like, your bull and bear case for SpaceX.

对。

Yeah.

你可以这样想。

And think about it this way.

比如，每公斤的美元成本，或者说把一公斤送入太空的成本，随着这个成本降低，进入太空就更便宜，市场规模就会扩大。

Like, dollars per kilogram or cost to send a kilogram into space, as that decreases makes it cheaper to get into space, the TAM increases.

所以就从那个角度来看。

So just think about it from that perspective.

所以如果他们继续执行星舰计划，大规模生产，大规模发射，重复使用，基本上，那个成本曲线会持续下降。

So if they keep executing on Starship, mass produce them, mass launch them, reuse them, basically, that cost curve keeps going down.

对。

Yeah.

如果真能实现的话，我觉得，我觉得到20年，我觉得三年内，SpaceX的市值会达到10万亿美元。

If that occurs, you know, I think I think by 20 I think by in three years, SpaceX trades at a 10,000,000,000,000 market cap.

哇。

Wow.

我觉得等我38岁的时候。

I think by I'm 38.

我觉得等我再老一些，是的。

I think by the time I'm old, older Yeah.

也许等我五十五六岁，大概二十年后，我觉得SpaceX的市值会达到100万亿美元。

Maybe maybe like mid late fifties, about twenty years from now, I think SpaceX trades at a 100,000,000,000,000 market cap.

我知道这听起来很离谱，但你看，如果你看看预计的星链、星脑以及其他资产和这些产品线，这些规模都很大。

I know that sounds ridiculous, but you've got you know, if you look at the projected Starlink, StarMinds, and and other asset and these other product lines, these are huge.

他们预测，比如星链，他们预测未来五年的收入会翻倍。

They predict they predict, like, for example, Starlink, they predict the revenue to double for the next five years.

那就是2的5次方。

That's two to the fifth power.

大家都不习惯用指数思维想问题。

Like, people don't think in exponentials.

这就是为什么比特币这么难估值。

That's why Bitcoin is so hard to value.

大家都记得，以前觉得比特币一百美元或一千美元就贵了，现在都快十万了。

Everyone's like, I remember when people thought Bitcoin is expensive at a $100 or a thousand dollars, and now it's close to a 100,000.

对。

Yeah.

但将来有一天比特币到一百万，大家又会觉得十万很便宜。

But then someday Bitcoin will be at a million and people will be like, oh, well, a 100,000 would be cheap.

人的脑子就是理解不了指数曲线。

People's minds can't grok exponential curves.

对。

Yeah.

我们是线性思维的物种。

We're a linear thinking species.

对。

Yeah.

一只鹿跑到我们面前。

A deer runs in front of us.

我们扔出长矛。

We throw a spear.

它击中了鹿。

It hits the deer.

对。

Yeah.

庄稼不会成倍增长，你得干所有活，然后这基本上是个线性的过程。

Crops don't grow exponentially, you got to do all the work and then it's kind of a linear process.

看到东西翻倍、翻倍、再翻倍、再翻倍，这不是我们大脑擅长思考的。

Seeing things double and double and double and double isn't what our minds are made to think of.

所以，如果你能看到那条曲线，或者花足够的时间去关注它，再说一次，我不是天才，其他人也能得出和我一样的结论。

So, if you can see that curve or spend enough time to care about it, again, I'm not a genius, Anyone else can come to the same conclusions I did.

你只需要花时间去思考这个问题。

You just had to spend the time to think about it.

市值一百万亿。

$100,000,000,000,000 mark cap.

对。

Yeah.

这期节目之后，我打算长期买入SpaceX的股票。

I'm gonna buy I'm gonna buy SpaceX for the long term here after this show.

我朋友一直在念叨，说，哥们儿，你得进场了。

My buddy's been harping on it and just been like, man, you gotta get in.

你得进场了。

You gotta get in.

那要看到这一点，投资者需要什么样的心理素质？

What about the investor psychology required to see that through?

比如，丹，我需要怎么做？

Like, Dan, what do I need to do?

我该怎么做？我需要开一个单独的证券账户，专门用来长期持有，然后我的交易账户就用来做短线交易吗？

How do I like, do I need to make a separate brokerage account that is, like, long term holds and then, like, my trading brokerage account?

而且我该怎么在心态上坚持到底？

And how do I mentally see this through?

你知道，我今年27岁，理论上23年后我就50岁了。

You know, I'm 27, so I'll be 50, you know, theoretically in twenty three years.

作为一个投资者，我该怎么持有SpaceX的股票23年？

How do I hold SpaceX for twenty three years as an investor?

显然，仓位大小很重要，我们来谈谈投资组合的百分比吧。

Obviously, sizing's a big part of it, you know, let's talk about percentages of portfolio.

我们来谈谈所需的心态。

Let's talk about the psychology required.

因为我说得对。

Because I right.

我的投资生涯时间跨度是，我大概18岁就开始投资了。

My time scale of investing career is I started when I was, like, 18.

所以，你知道，十一年了。

So, you know, eleven years.

或者，抱歉，九年。

Or, sorry, nine years.

所以我连二十年的经验都没有。

So I don't even have twenty years on belt.

所以想想持有一个资产二十年。

So think about holding an asset for twenty years.

我该怎么管理这笔交易？

How do I manage that trade?

我觉得这是个很棒的问题。

I mean, that's a fantastic question.

这里面有很多不同的因素。

There's a lot of different components to this.

我，第一，有谦逊和自省去思考，我是不是只是运气好，还是我的疯狂背后有方法，可以让我反复复制？

I, one, had the humility and the introspection to go, was I just completely lucky with my bet or was there a method to my madness that I can reproducibly do over and over?

你知道吗，我就是从那里读了橡树资本霍华德·马克斯的全部信件，还读了很多沃伦·巴菲特的东西。

You know, that's where I read all of Howard Marks letters from Oaktree Capital, read a lot of Warren Buffett stuff.

有趣的是，如果你真的把他们所有的经验教训提炼出来，其实他们说的就只有两件事。

And what's funny is if you actually take all of their learnings and distill them, there's really just two things that they both that they all say.

对某个资产要痴迷，要了解它的一切。

Be obsessive about a certain asset and know everything about it.

一旦你做到了，你可能会发现它要么被高估，要么被低估，因为你花的时间比任何人都多。

And once you do, you probably will either find that it's overpriced or underpriced because you've spent more time than anyone else looking at it.

因为东西太多了，每个人都不可能面面俱到。

There's just too many things for everyone to look at.

如果你对某个行业或某个资产了解很多，那你就有一定的优势。

And if you know a lot about a certain industry or a certain asset, you have some alpha there.

第二点，有意思的是，这基本上就是我们在加密货币领域的核心口号——HODL。

The second, which is funny because, basically, it's our core mantra in crypto, is HODL.

对。

Yeah.

而长期持有这部分是最难的。

And the HODLing part's the hardest.

霍华德·马克斯在提到这一点时，方式挺独特也挺有趣的。

Howard Marks is pretty kind of quirky and funny with how he references it.

他说，如果你真正理解这个资产，当它下跌时，你应该想买更多。

He's like, look, if you really understand the asset, if it drops, you should want to buy more.

对。

Right.

你知道，如果你觉得，哦，它跌了我就该卖，那说明你一开始就没真正理解这个资产。

You know, if you're feeling like, oh, I should sell after it drops, it means you really never understood the asset to begin with.

是的。

Yeah.

所以长期持有这部分极其困难。

So the huddle part is extremely difficult.

而且我觉得摩根·豪泽尔在《金钱心理学》里对这一点有很好的思考。

And I would say Morgan Household with the psychology of money has a really good thought process behind this.

投资有实际操作和理性操作之分。

There's investing practically versus investing rationally.

理性投资的话，就像如果我真的对比特币和SpaceX有信心，我会投百分之五十到五十。

Investing rationally would be like, if I truly have this conviction in Bitcoin and SpaceX, I'm 5050%.

对吧？

Right?

当然。

For sure.

最多全押。

At max full send.

我的投资组合几乎全是这些。

My portfolio is almost all that.

我喜欢留一点现金缓冲，是的。

I like a little bit of a cash buffer Yep.

用于一两年的开销。

For expenses for, like, a year or two.

然后我有一小部分投在标普500，因为那让我感觉好一些。

And then I have a small percentage in S and P because it just makes me feel good.

当然。

Sure.

这就是实际投资，了解自己的性格，而不是理性投资。

That's investing practically knowing my own character versus investing rationally.

直到2021年，我的净资产99%都是比特币。

Now until 2021, my net worth was 99% of Bitcoin.

所以我几乎有十年时间只投资比特币。

So I did almost a decade in Bitcoin exclusively.

没有标普500，没有其他任何东西。

No S and P, nothing else.

所以我已经经历过那种生活了。

So I've lived that.

我当时是个年轻人，我觉得对于男性来说，年轻男性比其他人群更能承受这种风险，不管这是愚蠢还是聪明，因为我们有能力承担过大的风险。

I was a young guy and I feel like for men, young men can handle that better than other demographics due to our, whether it's stupid or smart, ability to take outsized risks.

当然。

Of course.

你知道，我觉得女性，比如说，通常会比大多数男性表现得好，但除了那些极端情况，因为男性够傻，敢去冒巨大的风险。

You know, I think women, for example, will outperform most men, but not for the outliers because men are idiots enough to take crazy risk.

就像，我们中有人敢去捅熊，把熊带回来给部落，为部落谋福利。

Like, the we're one who wouldn't go stab the bear, brought it back to the tribe to go in the favor of the tribe.

但其他三个家伙在捅熊的时候死了。

But the other three dudes died trying to stab the bear.

你知道，你不会听说那些投资超高风险的资产然后亏掉的人。

You know, you don't hear about all the losers who invest in ultra high risk assets and lose.

对。

Right.

所以这不是胆小的人能玩的。

So it's not for the faint of heart.

不适合某些人群，比如你，二十多岁快三十了，你能承受很多风险，也就是说，风险不是波动性，但波动性是我们衡量风险的基本指标。

Not for a certain type of demographic for yours, for example, in your late twenties, you can stomach a lot of risk, AKA and risk is not volatility, but volatility is our rudimentary metric to measure risk.

霍华德·马克斯对此有很深刻的见解，因为风险是无法衡量的。

Howard Marks has great thoughts on this because you can't measure risk.

风险就是那些无法计算的东西。

Risk is what's uncalculable.

所以波动性只是人们重新评估资产风险或其未来价值的一种表现。

So volatility is the representation of people repricing risk for an asset or what its future value is too.

所以你对这种波动的承受能力可能比大多数人要强。

So your ability to stomach that is probably higher than most.

而且你也是从加密货币里成长起来的。

And you're also born in crypto.

对，没错。

So Exactly.

如果你能在这个资产类别中生存下来，你就能应对任何事情。

If you can survive this asset class, you can survive anything.

有意思的是，把SpaceX从我的投资组合中分出来，实际上感觉像是降低了风险。

Well, what's funny is thinking about allocating the SpaceX here from my portfolio actually feels like a bit of a de risking.

就是说

Like

对。

Yeah.

你现在算是分散投资了。

You're you're diversified now.

对吧？

Right?

我投了好多，我投了比特币。

Like, I'm in so many I'm in Bitcoin.

我还投了一大堆乱七八糟的币。

I'm in freaking tons of coins.

所有这些种子投资。

All these seed investments.

我整个公司都建立在金融上，我的意思是，它从加密货币转到了现在的金融，这很好。

My entire company is predicated on fine I mean, it's gone from crypto to now finance, which is great.

对。

Yep.

所以我们才聊这个，而不是深入讨论机构采用加密货币之类的话题。

That's why we're having this conversation instead of, you know, going into the weeds about institutional adoption of crypto or something.

但这感觉像是某种策略上的多元化。

But it feels like a diversification of a strategy somehow.

是的。

Yeah.

而且，我的意思是，一部分

And I mean, part

这既是在计算你眼前的流动性需求，用来支付开销。

of this is both calculating, like, your immediate liquidity concerns to pay for expenses.

当然。

Sure.

只投入你输得起的钱。

Only invest money you can afford to lose.

这关系到你能承受多大的风险。

There's your ability to stomach risk.

然后，你知道，这有点像你能做什么有趣的事情，顺便说一下，Qbera 是一种在一个地方追踪你所有资产的方式，它能拉取实时数据和实时余额。

And then, you know, it's kind of a factor of, like, what you can do interesting things, by the way, Qbera is a way to track all of your assets in one spot and it pulls in live data and it pulls in live balances.

你可以用它，然后像和 Grock 聊天一样讨论它。

You can use that and then like talk to Grock or chat about it.

是的。

Yep.

或者你可以分析你的实时投资组合，然后和它聊天。

Or like you can analyze your live portfolio and you can chat about it.

你知道，再说一次，关于金钱的心理，我觉得 Morgan Housel 在讲实际与理性方面做得很好。

You know, again, the psychology of money, I think Morgan Housel did a great job of talking about practically versus rationally.

是的，我喜欢。

Yeah, I like it.

在什么水平上你应该把资金撤出？

At what levels should you take money off the table?

而且你不可能永远活着。

And you're not going to live forever.

所以年轻的时候，钱能带来更多乐趣。

So money when you're younger is much more fun.

这就是我醒悟的地方，你看，我投资做得非常好，但我一直是个坚定的持有者，以至于我从未动过我的比特币或其他任何东西，你知道吗？

And that's where I woke up and looked at, you know, I've invested extremely well, but then I've been such a good hodler that like I never touched my Bitcoin or anything else, you know?

所以人生中有这样一条曲线，你越久不动你的资产，它们就会指数级增长。

And so there's this curve in life where the longer you don't touch your assets, they compound exponentially.

典型的回报曲线。

Classic return profile.

但你的健康同时也在指数级下降。所以某种程度上有一个最佳平衡点，我觉得每个人都教你如何投资。

But your health exponentially decreases at the same So there's a sweet spot in a way where I think that everyone teaches you how to invest.

但如果你真的变得非常擅长投资，那意味着你压抑消费太久了，没错。

But if you become really good at it, it means you've withheld consumption for such a long time Correct.

让资产继续增长，以至于你还没学会怎么花钱，或者你还需要更多钱干什么呢？

And let it keep growing that you haven't figured out how to spend it or the fuck do you need any more for?

你知道吗，我醒来后，我不会说我超级有钱。

Like, you know, I woke up and I'm not gonna say I'm crazy wealthy.

我做得还不错。

I've done quite well.

对。

Yeah.

但为什么我60岁时想要十亿美元呢？

But why the fuck would I want a billion dollars at 60?

对。

Yeah.

我知道。

I know.

就像，那些人愿意用九亿九千五百万换五百万，就为了回到我们现在这个年纪。

Like, those guys would trade 995,000,000 and have $5,000,000 where we're at.

我的意思是，你比我年轻一点，大概年轻十岁，他们愿意用所有这一切来换你的年龄。

Mean, you're a bit younger than I am, about ten years younger, they would trade that all to be your age.

想想看，现在银行里有500万，而不是等到他们那个年纪才有十亿。

Hear Maybe 5,000,000 in the bank right now versus a billion at their age.

他们愿意用所有这一切来交换。

They would trade all of that.

宿醉很难受。

Hangovers suck.

他们醒得晚。

They wake up later.

人们不觉得他们有吸引力。

People don't view them as attractive.

就像他们已经十年没人要了。

Like they haven't been wanted in a decade.

对。

Yeah.

你知道，就是诸如此类的事情。

You know, things like that.

对。

Yeah.

这个没法用数字来衡量。

There's no calculable value for that.

而且说不定你明天就没了。

So also you could just die tomorrow.

谁知道呢。

You never know.

没错。

Right.

百分之百。

A 100%.

所以，是的，我做了很多反思，比如，好吧，我投资确实很厉害，做得非常好，但意义何在？

So, yeah, I would say there was a lot of introspection I did of like, cool, I'm really good at this investing thing, phenomenally well at it, but what's the point?

这就是作为人而不是机器人的内在一面。

And that's the intimate side of being a human rather than a robot.

所以我觉得这两者之间要有个好的平衡。

So I think there's a good balance of both.

比如说，假设你的净资产是一百万，就为了好算，然后你的朋友们想一起去卡波来一次史诗级的旅行，你想花五千美元，那你大概应该去。

You know, for example, like let's say your net worth is 1,000,000 just for easy numbers and your buddies want to take an epic lifetime trip to Cabo and you want to spend $5,000, you probably should take that trip.

这占你净资产的比例很小，而且这是和所有朋友一起的旅行。

Like that's a pretty small percent of your net worth And it's a it's a trip with all your buddies.

然后可能六年之后，他们都结婚了，谁也没法再聚在一起了。

And then maybe, you know, six years from now, they're all married and none of them can meet up again.

那你肯定会后悔错过这样的旅行。

And you definitely would have missed out on like a trip like that.

但这样的旅行是值得去的。

But those are important to take.

而有些人，尤其是在纽约的，都是工作狂。

You Whereas some people, especially in New York City, they're grinders.

我以前也是个工作狂。

I used to be a grinder as well.

我早期在优步的增长团队待过。

I was an early growth team at Uber.

我在Kraken工作的时候，连续三年每周工作八十个小时。

When I was working at Kraken, I worked eighty hours a week for three years.

有时候你确实得拼命干，但同时也得值得你付出。

Sometimes you have to grind, but at the same time, got to be worth your while.

在纽约，有时候你会看到那些律师或者投行的人，他们大概三十岁，年薪可能五十万。

And that's where in New York, sometimes they see these like attorneys or investment bankers and they're like, you know, they're like 30 years old and they're making maybe 500,000.

我就觉得，这真不值得，兄弟。

And I'm like, I don't think that's worth it, man.

一年五十万，一半都交税了，还得付纽约的高房租。

Like 500,000 a year, half that goes to taxes and you got to pay high rents in New York.

所以可能一年净存十万，却把二十多岁后期到三十岁出头的时间都搭进去了。

And so maybe you're netting like a 100 K in savings a year to lose your late twenties, early thirties.

大概不值得吧。

Probably not worth it.

你需要净赚的远不止这些。

You need to be netting a lot more than that.

所以想想看，读读《金钱心理学》、《花钱的艺术》和《以终为始》这些书，它们能帮你重新理解投资的本质。

So thinking like reading The Psychology of Money and The Art of Spending Money and Die With Zero, a bunch of these books help to reframe what investing is all about to begin with.

你是在明智地配置资本，让资产增值，从而让你能够享受生活。

You're allocating capital wisely in order to have an appreciation of assets that then allow you to live a life.

所以你得记住生活这部分，同时生活开销会从你的投资组合中扣除。

So you got to remember about the living part, the same time living decrements from your investment portfolio.

所以这是一个平衡。

So it's a balance.

那么，为了给听众更实际、更可操作的建议，你到2040年变富的投资组合是什么？

So to put this into more actionable practical lens for the audience, is what's your what's your rich by 2040 portfolio?

是比特币和SpaceX吗？

Is it is it Bitcoin and SpaceX?

就这些吗？

Is that it?

我的意思是，如果我有任何不同的想法，我会把两个都卖掉。

I mean, if I felt any differently, I'd sell both.

对。

Yeah.

然后我会买点别的。

And I'd own something else.

我投资组合的绝大部分是SpaceX和比特币。

Vast majority of my portfolio is SpaceX and Bitcoin.

对。

Yeah.

你知道，对我来说，我38岁了。

Which, you know, for me, I'm 38.

所以，你知道，如果它们涨5倍或10倍，我现在就会减持10%到20%，因为我得开始把钱投到那些让我感觉更安心的地方。

So, you know, maybe if they 5 x or 10 x, I decrement 10 or 20% off now because I've got to start rolling it into things that make me just feel more comfortable.

对。

Yeah.

我完全理解你的意思。

I totally hear you on that part.

比如，我现在在投资上非常激进，但幸运的是，我之前买了一些不错的黄金和白银，都锁起来了。

Like, am very aggressive right now with my positioning, but I have I fortunately, you know, had gotten some good, like, gold and silver that's locked away.

那挺好的。

Got That's great.

还有一些比特币也锁起来了。

Some Bitcoin that's locked away.

我还有一套房子。

Some I have a house.

所以这些小事，我甚至都不去看它们，也不去关注，说实话，房地产那块确实让我有点烦，但这是为了心理上的安宁。

So it's like these small things, like, I don't even look at them or pay attention to them, and they honestly and, like, you know, the real estate piece just bothers me, but it's the mental sanity.

我剩下的投资组合都在那些乱七八糟的山寨币上，我的职业也在这上面，所以心理上的那部分确实……

The rest of my portfolio is in freaking beta altcoins, my career's in this and all, you know, and so it's that mental piece has

让我们想象一下，你跑赢了你现有的投资组合。

Let's helped me a imagine you outperform your existing portfolio.

假设你能通过全押高风险来超越你现有的投资组合，而且这是有保证的。

Let's say you could outperform it by being all in on risk, and this was guaranteed.

比如说，你能每年多赚3%的回报，但你会感到非常难受。

Like, let's say you could eke out 3% more a year return above what you currently have, but you were sick to your stomach.

是的。

Yeah.

一直如此。

All the time.

对。

Yeah.

没错。

Exactly.

是的。

Yeah.

那真的值得吗？

Is is that really worth it or not?

然后三十岁左右就得了胃溃疡之类的？

And get a fucking ulcer at, like, 30 or something?

你知道吗？

You know?

就是说，我也不确定。

Like, I don't know.

你知道吗？

You know?

所以再说一次，关键是要了解自己的身体，对。

So again, it's knowing your body Yeah.

还有你的心理，以及你能承受多少。

And your minds and what you can handle.

是的。

Yep.

毕竟生活就是一场游戏。

And life is a game after all.

对。

Yeah.

是的，没错。

Like yeah.

回到刚才说的，投资者在实用和理性思维之间的这种切换，你知道，人们把投资看作快速致富的手段，尤其是在加密货币领域。

Coming back to this kind of practical versus rational thinking queue for the investor, you know, people think about investing as a get rich quick thing, especially in crypto.

你怎么才能消除投资中的短视，去思考更长远的指数级回报呢？

How do you remove the shortsightedness in investing and think about longer term exponential outcomes?

因为正如你所说，我们人类很难做到这一点，你知道，很难用指数思维去思考，我们之前已经聊了很多。

Because as you said, us humans are hard you know, it's hard to think in exponentials, we've spoken a lot about that already.

那么，用一种新的、新鲜的方式，我们怎么在投资世界里延迟满足呢？

So, you know, in a new way, kind of fresh way, how do we kind of delay gratification in the investing world?

还有，你是怎么做的？是不是有一个短期的，比如永续合约之类的账户，用来满足那种冲动？

And how do you how do you is it a you know, you have a shorter term kind of like perps bucket or something that you wanna you know, if you if you gotta scratch that itch, that's what you do.

我觉得，这大概就是我目前的做法。

I mean, that's kinda what I currently have.

你知道，就是一小部分钱。

You know, it's like a small amount.

就像是，好吧。

It's like, alright.

如果我觉得某个东西一周内会涨，我就会用我的交易账户去交易，但其他账户不动。

If something I I think, you know, it's gonna pump in a week, I'm I'm gonna, you know, trade it there as, like, my trade portfolio, but other accounts don't get touched.

这样想对吗？

Is that, like, the right framing?

你怎么——对。

How do you Yeah.

你知道，怎么把短视从投资中去掉？

You know, take shortsightedness out of investing?

这个问题问得很好。

That's a really good question.

我的意思是，要了解自己。

I mean, know yourself.

比如说，如果你需要靠一个交易账户来满足那种冲动，那就去开一个交易账户。

Like, if you need to scratch that itch by having a trading account, get the trading account.

但确保你不要往里面加钱。

But make sure you don't top it up.

就像

Like

我明白你的意思。

I hear you.

也许是一个季度的金额，一万美元，十万美元，不管你的数字是多少，那就是你的上限。

Maybe it's a quarterly amount, $10,000, 100,000, whatever your number is, and that's your limit.

就像在赌场一样。

It's like at the casino.

做日内交易在某种程度上就是赌博，因为你没有优势。

It is gambling to some extent when you do do day trading because you don't have any alpha.

你可能有点优势，比如如果你知道一些关于某个项目的信息，但如果你是个普通交易者，你可能没有优势。

You might have alpha, like, let's see if you know some information about a project, but probably don't have alpha if you're a regular trader.

所以，是的，如果你需要那样满足一下，当然可以。

So, yeah, if you need to scratch the edge that way, sure.

你知道，有些时候，比如你重仓了一个超高风险的波动性大的资产，也许你心里有一个愿意卖出的价格。

You know, some of it too, like maybe your concentrated position and and like an ultra high risk, high volatility asset, maybe there's a price you'd be willing to sell at.

对。

Yeah.

你可以在那个行权价卖出备兑看涨期权，这样你会有收益，因为你放弃了上涨空间。

You could sell covered calls at that strike, which would give you a yield because you're selling your upside.

这在一定程度上也让你有卖出的承诺。

And that sort of commits you to selling in a way.

所以，如果价格真的到了那个点，市场会付钱让你卖出。

So it's sort of the market paying you to sell at that price if it does hit that.

所以，你可以用这个方法来让自己保持诚实，当你想退出一个仓位时，就是在某些行权价卖出看涨期权。

So you could use it as a way to keep yourself honest whenever you want to exit a position is selling calls at certain strikes.

然后市场会付给你那个权利金，对手方。

And so the market is paying you that premium, the counterparty.

如果没被行权，你就再写一次。

And if it doesn't get called away, you just write it again.

如果被行权了，那你就会想，行吧，反正我本来也打算卖。

And if it does get called away, then you're like, cool, I would have sold anyways.

所以这是一种有趣的方式来满足那种冲动，比如作为看涨期权的卖方进行备兑看涨交易，这是一种交易，而且能让你在退出仓位时保持自律。

So that's an interesting way to scratch that itch where like a covered call trade as a seller of a call, that is a trade and it keeps you honest with exiting a position.

所以这是个好办法。

So that's a good way of doing it.

而且它还会让你觉得等待是有回报的，因为看涨期权的买方为从你那里行使期权的权利支付了溢价。

It also makes you feel rewarded for waiting because the call buyer is paying you a premium for their privilege to exercise that option from you.

所以还有其他方法，但基本上要了解自己。

So those are other ways, but basically know yourself.

你需要一个独立的交易账户，用于备兑看涨期权。

You need a separate trading account, covered calls.

最后，霍华德·马克斯、沃伦·巴菲特，要了解资产本身。

And then finally, Howard Marks, Warren Buffett, understand the asset.

别因为朋友让你买什么就买什么。

Do not buy shit because your friend told you to buy shit.

我不是在针对你。

I'm not picking on you.

我只是说，任何资产都一样。

I'm just saying in general for any asset.

你应该了解这个东西的所有细节。

You should be you should know all the fucking details about this thing.

每一个小细节。

Every single little piece of it.

你得知道，我买比特币的时候，我真的完全懂它吗？

You should know, look, did I understand Bitcoin perfectly when I got in?

不懂。

No.

但买了之后，我很快就懂了，因为我满脑子都是它。

But after I bought it, I quickly did because it's all I could think about.

而且我对现有的金融体系了解很多。

And I knew a lot about the existing financial system.

2008年金融危机期间我学了金融。

I studied finance during the two thousand and eight financial crisis.

哇。

Wow.

我都那么老了。

I'm that old.

所以，你知道，深入这个领域，你真的得好好理解它。

So, you know, going down this rabbit hole, you got to really understand it.

当你理解了，价格下跌时你就不会恐慌。

And when you do, then you're not panicked when the truth dips.

对。

Yeah.

就像，我的信念是坚定不移的。

Like, my faith is unshakable.

你可以在推特上查看所有的记录。

You can check all the receipts on Twitter.

对。

Yeah.

比如，一直追溯到2015年。

Like, all the way back through 2015.

我大概2014、2015年才开始发推。

I didn't start tweeting until about 2014, 2015.

对。

Yeah.

不过，是的，你可以查看我的记录。

But, yeah, you can check my receipts.

你可以问问Rock。

You can ask Rock.

他会说，是的。

Be like Yeah.

丹·赫尔德从来没有发过任何看跌的推文。

Dan Held never tweeted anything bearish.

就是说，它坚不可摧，因为我理解这个

Like, it's unshakable because I understand the

资产。

the asset.

对。

Yeah.

所以，在长期资产上持有超比例的仓位，这些资产是你坚信的，同时通过备兑看涨期权来管理你的心理，满足你对永续合约的冲动，满足你的短期交易冲动，不管你想怎么满足，都要保持对资产的最新了解。

And so hold outsized percentages of your portfolio in longer term assets that you firmly believe in and manage your psychology through potentially covered calls, scratching your perps itch, scratching your short term itch, however, you know, you wanna scratch it, and stay up to date with the asset.

要成为你投资组合中最大持仓理解度前1%的人。

Be be in the top 1% of understanding your biggest holdings in your portfolio.

没错。

Exactly.

是的。

Yep.

对，就是这样。

That's yeah.

我的意思是，就是这样。

I mean, that's it.

我知道这听起来很简单。

I know it sounds basic.

对吧？

Right?

问题是，很多人——有意思的是，分散投资是无知的代价。

The thing is a lot of people I mean, what's funny is diversification is the price you pay for ignorance.

当然。

Sure.

这就是为什么你买VU或VTI或标普，这些在一定程度上代表了那种分散。

That's why you buy VU or VTI or S and P, which those are representations of that to some extent.

因为，你知道，比如，我投资组合中有一小部分是这样的，那是我为无知付出的分散投资代价。

Because, you know and for example, a small percentage of my portfolio is in that, and that is my ignorance diversification payment that I'm making.

比如说，我在比特币和SpaceX上真的错得很离谱。

Where let's say I'm really fucking wrong about Bitcoin and SpaceX.

比特币存在一个博弈论上的漏洞。

Bitcoin has a a game theoretic exploit.

再说一次，我有理由认为这不会发生，但假设它真的发生了。

Again, there's reasons why I don't think this is gonna happen, but let's say it does.

对。

Yes.

埃隆·马斯克被暗杀身亡，三个设施遭到炸弹袭击。

Elon Musk dies from an assassination and three of the facilities are targeted with bombs.

你知道，这种事情，是的，非常不可能发生。

You know, things that would be like, yeah, it's very improbable.

我当然不希望那样发生。

I don't wish that to happen, of course.

而且我也不认为会发生。

And I don't think it will happen.

你知道，那些会大幅下降。

You know, those would massively decrement.

我仍然不认为这会让它们中的任何一个失败。

I still don't think it would make either of those fail.

对。

Right.

它只会推迟价格路径的依赖，向上或向上再向上，就像向上。所以，是的，我的意思是，我分散投资是因为我不是什么都懂。

It would just delay the price path dependency up or up and up, like up So, and yeah, I mean, I diversify because I don't know everything.

对。

Right.

所以这就是我因为不知道而付出的代价。

And so that's my payment I make because I don't know.

为无知付出的代价。

For ignorance.

正是如此。

Exactly.

对。

Yeah.

你知道，因为人们说分散投资是收益的敌人。

You know, because they say diversification is the enemy of returns.

不过，比如我开头提到的那个朋友，他全押在电商上。

However, like, you know, like my friend, for example, that I spoke about at the top, the guy's all in on on ecommerce.

他不是每天看图表。

He's not he's not looking at charts every day.

他就只投标普、纳斯达克、比特币。

So he's just S and P, NASDAQ, Bitcoin.

那挺好的。

And that's great.

对。

Yeah.

这样你只能拿到平均回报。

It's you're gonna get the average return.

你不会获得超额回报，但即使是平均回报也非常可观。

You're not gonna get outsized returns, but even the average return is phenomenal.

对。

Yeah.

我觉得很多人没有那个耐心，所以他们才去交易各种东西。

I think a lot of people don't have patience for that, and that's why they're trading all sorts of stuff.

但平均回报已经很好了。

But the average return is great.

事实上，标普500的平均回报率超过了全球顶尖的对冲基金经理。

In fact, the average return of the S and P 500 outperforms the top hedge fund managers in the world.

对。

Yeah.

很少有人能持续跑赢市场。

Very few of them consistently beat the market.

对。

Yeah.

这几乎是不可能的。

It's almost impossible.

对。

Yeah.

所以，除非我对这些单一资产有更好的信息，否则我可能不会试图在标普上跟最顶尖的人对着干。

So that's where, you know, unless I have better information on these singular assets, then I'm probably not going to try to trade against the best of the best on the S and P Yeah.

按年化以下的基础来看。

On a sub annualized basis.

也就是一年之内。

So within a year.

有趣的是，对冲基金经理只因为短期表现获得回报，这意味着他们并不是根据长期价值来评估这些资产的。

What's funny is hedge fund managers are only rewarded for short term performance, which means that they're not valuing these assets for their long term value.

这就是你能比房间里最聪明的人有优势的地方，因为他们玩的游戏跟你不一样。

That's where you do have an edge against the smartest people in the room because they're not playing the same game you're playing,

你

you're

玩的是另一种游戏。

playing a different game.

对。

Right.

你可以，而且你没有任何声誉风险或职业风险。

You can and you don't have any reputational risk or career risk.

是的。

Yep.

你不会因为买了像比特币那样被讨厌的资产而被解雇，因为那是你自己的钱。

You're not gonna get fired for buying this asset that's hated like Bitcoin was because it's your own money.

是的。

Yep.

这就是为什么家族办公室是最早真正进入加密货币或比特币的机构，因为对冲基金和其他人承担不了这种风险。

That's why family offices were the first institutions really to get into crypto or Bitcoin because hedge funds, other folks couldn't take on the risk.

对。

Yeah.

现在风险投资家也这么做了。

Now venture capitalists did too.

他们买的是股权，情况要复杂一些。

They were buying like equity and it's a little bit more complicated.

但确实，你基本上和风险投资面临同样的风险，但即使是风险投资家也没有那么反传统。

But yeah, like you're essentially on the same risk profile as venture capital, but even venture capitalists aren't that contrarian.

这其实是个误解。

It's actually a misnomer.

人们以为风险投资家非常反传统，其实不是。

Like people think VCs are super contrarian, they're not.

比如，有些类别非常拥挤，他们因为声誉和职业风险，错误配置了大量资金。

There's very crowded categories and they've misallocated a ton of capital because of the reputational and career risk, for example.

是的，我明白。

Yeah, I understand.

对，像A16Z、红杉，如果他们投资了，你作为小风投也参与那轮投资，他们实际上不会做任何额外的尽职调查。

Yeah, like A16Z, Sequoia, if they invest and you're a smaller VC and you get in into that round too, they don't actually do any other underwriting of due diligence.

对。

Yeah.

只是说

It's just that

他们也是，对。

they're Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

而且他们甚至不算错。

And then they're not even wrong.

如果失败了，他们就会说，A16Z也投了。

If it fails, then they're like, well, a 16 z went in.

就像，最聪明的那帮人

Like, the smartest guys

当然。

Of course.

对。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

那么丹，为了把这件事收个尾，我最后想聊的是，当你错了的时候你会怎么做？

So just Dan, to kinda close the loop here, the last thing that I wanna cover is what do you do when you're wrong?

所以，论点已经确立，仓位实际上也已经建立，但很集中，对吧？

So thesis is established, position is established practically speaking, but concentrated, right?

你很集中。

You're concentrated.

你觉得你对这个资产了解得很清楚。

You think you're you're up to date on the asset.

你很集中。

You're concentrated.

你有个计划。

You've got a plan.

你已经有退出策略了。

You've got an exit strategy.

你做了研究，但你还是错了。

You've done the research, but you're wrong.

对。

Yeah.

你还是错了。

You're still wrong.

你就是完全错了。

You're just flat out wrong.

你怎么改变偏见？

How do you change biases?

你怎么从亏损中恢复？

How do you recover from losses?

你知道，也许你的职业生涯中亏损没有别人那么多，但你肯定在账面上经历过。

You know, maybe you haven't had as many losses as others in their career, but you've definitely taken On paper.

对。

Yeah.

没错。

Exactly.

那你是怎么应对这种情况的？

How do you how do you do you deal with that?

我的意思是，从账面上看，我的净资产有三次下跌了85%，因为我99%的资产都在比特币里。

I mean, on paper, I've had my net worth drop eighty five percent three times because I was 99% in Bitcoin.

所以，这太疯狂了。

So I Insane.

我没有卖，但过程并不愉快。

I didn't sell, but it wasn't fun.

不。

No.

是的。

Yeah.