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好的，欢迎回到代币化塔。
Alrighty, Welcome back to the Tokenization Tower.
今天我们请到了Blockworks的内容主管Felix Jauvin。
We are here with Felix Jauvin, head of content at Blockworks.
他也是我的宏观专家，我们内部的宏观专家。
Also my macro expert, in house macro expert.
很高兴你能来。
Great to have you.
今天城里天气真好。
Beautiful day in the city.
太棒了。
Amazing.
很高兴来到这里。
Good to be here.
很高兴能亲自到场。
Good to be here in person.
在你的工作室里。
In your studio.
我觉得这是我们第三次做这个了，但之前从来没在你的工作室里。
Like, is, I think, the third time we've done this, but never actually in your studio.
能来这里真是太棒了。
So cool to be here.
是的，兄弟。
Yeah, man.
我是说，过去二十四小时我们经历了很多，因为SEC的tokenization创新豁免。
I mean, we've had a crazy twenty four hours here with this SEC tokenization innovation exemption.
你知道，我们得知这个消息，然后它发布了，看起来很多基金都会开始把他们的资产token化，放到链上。
You know, so we got wind about this, and it came out, and it's looking like a lot of funds are gonna start tokenizing their assets, bring them on chain.
看起来这个tokenization的大趋势会继续下去。
And it just looks like this tokenization megatrend is going to continue.
我想听听你对这个新监管环境的看法，然后我想聊聊如何在这个加密新时代进行投资。
I just want to get your take on kind of like this new regulatory regime, and then I want to get into kind of how to invest in this new era of crypto.
对。
Yeah.
我是说，终于知道什么能做、什么不能做，这感觉真好。
I mean, it's it's nice to just finally know what you're allowed to do and not what to do.
其实我从大概2020年，也就是Gary Gensler那个时期开始，就一直有这个想法。那时候监管基本上就是靠诉讼来执行，发发停止函之类的。
Like, I've had this belief for basically since, I don't know, 2020, like the Gary Gensler era, where they were it was regulatory enforcement by just litigation effectively and sending cease and desist and that sort of thing.
所以大家根本不清楚什么能做、什么不能做，我觉得这在很多方面都严重阻碍了创新。
So nobody really knew what we were allowed to do or not, which I think really hampered innovation in in so many ways.
比如，过去十年我们显然已经搭建了加密货币和区块链的基础设施，这当然很好。
Like, we we built, obviously, the infrastructure of of crypto and blockchains over the last decade or so, and that's really all well and good.
但之后，凡是跟证券沾边的东西，感觉我们真的不知道能不能碰。
But then, you know, anything that was really tied to securities, you it felt like we really didn't know what we're allowed to do or not.
所以每个人，比如你做了个Uniswap之类的，都不知道哪天醒来就会收到SEC的Wells通知。
So everybody just you didn't know if you're Uniswap or whatever, you just wake up one day and you just get a Wells notice from the SEC.
这样根本没法正常运作。
It's just like you can't operate like that.
所以你基本上是在一只手被绑在背后的情况下去尝试革新金融世界，这有点荒谬。
So you're trying to revolutionize the finance world with basically one arm behind your back the entire time, which is kind of ridiculous.
所以对我来说，我们经历了这五年左右的时期，感觉有一种金融虚无主义之类的想法，大家都在交易模因币，这并不让我感到意外。
So to me, it doesn't really surprise me that we've been through this, you know, call it a five five year period where felt like there was this idea of, like, you know, financial nihilism and all that stuff and, like, you know, we're just trading meme coins.
别，那是超级周期。
Don't that's super cycle.
对。
Yeah.
而且，我的意思是，在某些领域这仍然存在。
And, I mean, that's still a thing in in certain sectors.
比如，显然现在它正在火热进行。
Like, obviously, it's going off right now.
但行业的另一个组成部分，也就是真正的创新，在金融基础层面和行业的基石上。
But that other component of the industry of just, like, true innovation on on, you know, the finance, like, fundamentals and the bedrock of the industry.
我们真的还没能去探索那部分。
We just haven't really been able to explore that.
感觉我们唯一能做的好像就是治理代币。
Felt like the only thing we could really do was, like, governance tokens.
那些其实没什么实际意义。
That really didn't mean very much.
对。
Yeah.
现在在新的SEC、CFTC以及可能出台的清晰法案下，感觉就像，好吧。
And now under this new SEC, under the CFTC, and this potential, yeah, clarity bill, it's like, okay.
现在我们终于能知道什么能做、什么不能做了。
Now we can start to actually know what we can do or not.
而且我们在这些加密轨道上开发出来的那些惊人的效率、透明度和即时结算，现在终于可以开始真正去尝试了。
And now all this incredible efficiency and, you know, transparency and quick instant settlement that we developed on these crypto rails, we can start to actually experiment with it.
所以，你开始能看到我们能做些什么了。
So, you know, you're starting to be able to see what can we do.
我们开始收到SEC关于加密监管的一些消息，他们也在说，好吧。
We're starting to get, you know, this crypto reg thing from the SEC where they're talking about, okay.
现在我们知道了在需要提交某些披露文件之前，我们能筹集多少资金，诸如此类的事情。
Now we know how much we can raise before we have to, you know, file certain disclosures and that sort of thing.
所以，是的，我现在非常兴奋。我觉得，对我来说，过去一两年里，除了少数几个，你懂的，所谓的收入型元代币之外。
So, yeah, I'm incredibly excited right I think, like for me, for the last year or two, except for a few, you know, you call it like the revenue meta tokens.
除此之外，我觉得我对很多那些没什么用的治理代币相当看空，它们其实没什么实际意义。
Like other than that, it felt like I was pretty bearish on a lot of those, you know, kind of useless governance tokens that didn't really mean a whole much.
而现在突然有了更多实实在在的价值。
And now suddenly you have a lot more tangible value.
所以就像是一路狂奔，停不下来了。
So it's just like off to the races.
我觉得我们需要重置所有的先入之见，用全新的眼光来看待这个领域。
I think we need to reset all our priors and just look at the landscape with a fresh set of eyes right now.
这就是我现在关注的重点，是的。
So that's what I'm focused on, yeah.
对。
Yeah.
对于正在观看的观众朋友们，如果你们不知道的话，去年六月在布鲁克林举办的Permissionless 2025，我记得当时外面特别热。
And for those of you guys watching who don't know, so at Permissionless twenty twenty five last year in June, I believe, it was in Brooklyn and it was really hot outside.
我们第一次在户外搭建我们的演播室，对吧？
We So First time ever doing our roll up outdoor setup, right?
当时气温高达94华氏度，但必须得感谢Blockworks。
And it's 94 degrees, but shout out to Blockworks.
他们给我们找了一个超棒的赞助商。
They got us a killer sponsor.
他们给我们安排了一个很好的位置，就在场地正中间。
They got us a good setup right in the middle.
人流量很大，而且这算是第一次有这种TPPN加密会议。
We had great traffic and it was, you know, kind of like the first like TPPN crypto conference thing.
那感觉太棒了。
And And it was sick.
就像，你知道的，那真是一场很棒的会议。
It was like, you know, it was a great conference.
你知道，那时候市场挺牛的。
You know, things were bullish.
我就觉得，收入这个主题是里面最火的话题。
I'm like, the revenue meta is like the biggest clip that comes out of it.
还有那个“质押是不是死了”的讨论，因为当时我们就在聊这个。
That and like is staking dead because that's where we were.
比如L1已经不行了，它们的通胀很糟糕，赚不到钱，我们为什么需要这么多通胀？
Like L1s are cooked, their inflation is bad, they make no money, why do we need all this inflation?
我们真正想搞清楚的是，我们到底在买什么？
And what we were really getting to was like, what are we really buying here?
这个行业里有没有我们能买的企业？
Is there any businesses that we can buy in this industry?
所以，让我们来看看代币化这个大趋势，深入分析一下它的二阶和三阶效应，因为我觉得我们最终要讨论的是，想想那些AAVE、Uniswap、Morpho、Hyperliquid、Lighter、Aerodrome这些项目，你知道，所有这些名字，对吧？
And so let's take this tokenization megatrend and kind of unpack the second and third order effects because I think what we're getting to is you think about the AAVEs of the world and the Uniswaps and the Morphos and the Hyperliquids and the Lighters and the Aerodromes and just, you know, all these names, right?
我们一直把它们看作是加密经济的基础。
We've thought about them as being the backbone of the crypto economy.
你说要重置你的认知，我觉得我们需要开始把这些看作是未来链上金融世界的支柱。
When you say reset your priors, what I think is we need to start thinking about these as the backbone of the future on chain finance world.
而那不是总市值3万亿美元和DeFi里1600亿美元的TBL。
And that is not $3,000,000,000,000 of total market cap and $160,000,000,000 of TBL and DeFi.
那是链上数万亿美元，市值达到八位数、九位数、十位数、十一位数的规模。
That is like trillions of dollars on chain and multi, you know, eight, you know, nine, ten, eleven figure in market cap.
那么，跟我们说说，这种重置认知对代币化浪潮和链上资产意味着什么。
And so talk us through, like, what this resetting your priors means for this kind of tokenization wave for just on chain assets.
对。
Yeah.
所以借贷是一个很好的切入点，因为，是的，你知道，这太不可思议了。
So so lending is a good dropping off point there because, yeah, you know, it's incredible okay.
所以当你对比08年金融危机时，造成那么大混乱的很大一部分原因是没人知道他们的对手方是谁，以及他们账面上有多少风险。
So when you compare what happened in o eight, right, in the financial crisis, so much of what caused so much havoc there was nobody knew what their counterparty was and how much risk that they had on their books.
他们不知道自己的资产被再抵押了多少次。
They didn't know how rehypothecated all their assets were.
对吧？
Right?
所以你根本不知道自己手里握着什么样的风险。
So you didn't know what kind of risk you're holding.
再看看现在DeFi的情况，比如借贷，像AAVE和Morpho这些平台。
And then you look at what we have now with DeFi, with, yeah, lending and, you know, AV and Morpho.
你完全清楚你的交易对手方承担了什么样的风险。
You know exactly what kind of risk your counterparty has.
你也知道这些资产的杠杆率有多高，所有细节都一清二楚。
And you know how, like, yeah, how leveraged those assets are and everything.
所以，我一直坚信，如果当年在那些历史金融危机中，我们能有这样的透明度，造成的破坏肯定会小得多。
So, mean, yeah, something I believe for a really long time is that if we had that sort of line of sight into these prior historical financial crises, I think there would have been a lot less damage.
因为，问题不只是我们不清楚自己面临的风险。
Because, you know, it's not just like, we don't know what risk we have here.
整个资产负债表都是有毒的。
This whole book is toxic.
比如说，咱们干脆把它处理掉吧。
Like, let's just get it out of here.
你知道，你可以有一个更细致的看法，比如说，好吧，你看，我知道我的交易对手在这里的杠杆有多高。
Know, you can have a bit more of a nuanced view and say, okay, like, look, I know how levered my counterparty is here.
我知道我的资产质量如何。
I know the quality of my book.
所以，是的，想象一下，如果这种透明度应用到金融行业的其他部分，突然之间，当然，现在大家都在谈论代币化股票。
So yeah, imagine that just being applied to the rest of the finance industry where suddenly these, obviously, right now, everybody's talking about tokenized equities.
对吧？
Right?
这当然很好。
And that's all well and good.
我认为这里的论点是，显然，当你住在美国、加拿大或者其他地方时，买苹果股票非常容易。
I think the thesis there is that, obviously, it's really easy to buy Apple stock when you live in The US or Canada or I'm at or whatever.
但在很多其他国家，就没那么容易了。
It's not so easy in a lot of other countries.
所以很明显，在一些无法直接接触这些金融市场的国家，拥有代币化股票确实有很多很好的、有说服力的想法。
So obviously, there's really good compelling ideas there to be able to own tokenized equities in countries that don't have direct access to those financial markets.
这很棒。
So that's awesome.
但对我来说，在代币化资产方面更令人兴奋的是那些更奇特的QSIP，比如国债，这些资产在个体上有很多到期日、期限和久期，突然之间，你知道，其中一些资产可能流动性极高。
But I think what's more exciting for me on the tokenized asset aspect is these more exotic QSIPs like, you know, treasuries, assets where there's just a lot more individually, you expiries and maturities, durations, and that sort of thing where suddenly, you know, some of those assets, they can be super liquid.
而且，你不太清楚这些资产的价格在哪里。
And, you know, you don't really know where the price is at in those sort of things.
如果你有更好的结算，即时结算，你就能更清楚地看到系统中的杠杆水平。
And if you have just much better settlement, instant settlement, you have much better line of sight into the amount of leverage in the system.
突然之间，想想那些更小众的奇特资产，我认为代币化资产和我们开发的基础设施应用在那里的机会绝对令人难以置信。
Suddenly, think those more long tailed exotic assets, I think the opportunity for tokenized assets and the infrastructure that we've developed is just absolutely incredible to be applied there.
对。
Yeah.
好的。
Okay.
所以从价值主张的角度来看，对吧，就是这种开放、透明、全天候的全球市场，实际上，比特币白皮书是在所有银行危机之后出现的。
So kind of taking this from the lens of like the value prop here, right, which is this kind of open, transparent, 20 fourseven global market that is created to, you know, in effect, you know, the Bitcoin white paper came out after all the bank crisis season.
所以，现在我们有了这个链上金融系统，这些新的轨道，都是因为我们在街对面看到的那些不透明的东西。
So, you know, now we've got this on chain financial system, these new rails as a result of all this kind of opaque kind of stuff that we see just down the block here.
对吧？
Right?
这就是价值主张。
And so that's like the value prop.
我觉得机构投资者开始明白了，但他们要买什么呢？
And I think the institutional allocators are starting to get that, but what are they gonna buy?
比如，我是一个投资者。
Like, I'm an allocator.
这件事正在发生。
This is happening.
我该买什么？
What am I buying?
那我们怎么才能抢先一步？
And like, how can we get in front of them?
这些东西通过豁免、Clarity法案之类的渠道进来，对吧？
Like this stuff comes through with, you know, with the exemption, with the Clarity Act, whatever, right?
他们正在进场。
They're coming in.
比如说，是不是就这么简单——我是ARC，我用Securitize把我的基金代币化。
Let's say, is it as simple as like, oh, I'm ARC, I'm tokenizing my fund with Securitize.
我要把我的基金份额放进Morpho Vault。
I'm gonna put my fund shares in Morpho Vault.
所以我也顺便买点Morpho代币。
So I'm also just going to buy the Morpho token.
就这么简单吗？
Like, is it that simple?
他们到底在买什么，我们怎么才能抢先一步？
Like, what are they buying and how do we get in front of them?
对，显然现在有巨大的资产浪潮涌上链，这很棒。
Yeah, so obviously there's just this huge tidal wave of assets coming on chain and that's awesome.
而且你说得对，接下来的第二个问题是，当所有这些资金涌入链上时，在这个过程中什么会被推高？
And to your point, the second question from there is, okay, with all that flow coming on on chain, what gets pumped in that process?
那就是
That's
说实话，这是个价值十亿美元的问题。
like honestly It's billion dollar question.
对，
Yeah,
现在让人困惑的是，我们正处在这个转型期，我仍然会说现在存在的代币中有75%并没有因为那波浪潮而获得有意义的增值。
And that's what's so confusing right now is that we're in this transition moment where I would still say 75% of the tokens that exist right now have no meaningful accrual of value related to that tidal wave coming in.
所以这让人困惑。
So that's confusing.
然后剩下的25%，你知道，你称之为收入型代币。
And then the 25%, you know, you're calling it the revenue medic tokens.
现在突然之间，任何有点回购或者类似机制的东西，只要代币跟这些现金流挂钩，就会被炒得很高。
Like it's suddenly anything that has a mild, whether it's a buyback or or what have you, anything with a token that associates with those cash flows is getting marked up at a premium right now.
所以很明显，你知道，有Hyperliquid，有Pump，等等。
So obviously, you know, there's the Hyperliquids, there's the pumps, etcetera.
我觉得这就是这轮牛市的第一波信号，展示了未来会是什么样子。
And I think I think that's that's the first shot of of of this next bull market of of what things look like.
所以接下来的问题是，我觉得过去六个月左右，就是那些能产生收入的代币和那些没什么实际价值的治理代币之间的分化。
And so the next question from there is, I would say the next six the last six months or so was just this, you know, this divergence between those revenue generating tokens versus, you know, the the useless governance token that has, like, no meaningful claim on anything.
很明显，一个重要原因是，Gensler在SEC待了那么多年，很多代币都采用了那种双重股权结构，处理起来特别麻烦。
Obviously, an important part there is because of this, you know, Gensler approach to the SEC for so many years, so many of these tokens had this dual equity token structure that has just been a mess to churn through.
现在你开始看到这个问题在慢慢解决。
And you're starting to see that get solved.
比如Morpho就是一个很好的例子，他们只用了单一版本的结构。
So like, Morpho is a great example of one where they just had that singular version.
还有，你知道，最近Athena也整合了，专注于让价值回归代币，并且在那里进行回购。
You have, you know, Athena recently, they just had their they consolidate in and and have been focusing on value occurring to the token and buybacks there.
你们在那方面做得非常好。
And you guys are doing great work there.
顺便提一下，关于代币透明度的事情。
Just as a side note on the token transparency stuff.
现在的情况是，如果你在Blockworks上有一份好的代币透明度报告，而且Andy喜欢你的经济模型，那你就能飞起来。
It's now like, look, if you have a good token transparency report on Blockworks and Andy likes your economics, you're flying.
你懂我的意思吧？
You know what I mean?
没错。
Exactly.
虽然没那么简单，但这就是我们想要达到的效果。
It's not that simple, but it's like, this is what we're trying to do here.
对。
Yeah.
所以我们想帮忙加速这个过程。
So we're trying to help accelerate.
对。
Yeah.
说到你提到的TTF，我们现在在Blockworks做的就是专注于引导和加速这个过渡，穿越我们目前所处的这个波动期，在这个阶段我们需要弄清楚什么是有价值的，什么不是。
To your point with the TTF itself we're doing at Blockworks right now is we're trying to focus on shepherding and accelerating that transition through this choppiness that we're in right now where we need to figure out what's the value or not.
所以第一阶段就是，是的，搞清楚什么有价值，什么没有价值。
So the first phase of that is yes, understanding what has value versus what does not have value.
第二部分，我觉得在未来一年左右会变得更有意义，就是弄清楚我们该给这些收入赋予什么样的倍数或价格，对吧？
The second part, which I think is going to become a lot more meaningful over the next year or so is understanding what sort of multiple or price do we attach to those revenues, right?
因为现在，在过去六个月里，大家就是觉得，哦，他们有收入，然后收入会流向代币，还有回购？
Because right now, over the last six months, it's just been, oh, they have revenue, and it goes towards a token and there's buybacks?
好，再见。
Okay, bye.
但接着你开始遇到这样的问题：好吧，那具体是多少呢？
But then you start to have the questions of, okay, well, like, how much?
而且我们是不是应该，你知道，暂时回到基础金融101，对吧？
And should we just be, you know, for a bit, like, just you got to go back to like basic finance 101, right?
也就是说，你有一家公司在盈利，有留存收益。
Which is that, okay, you have a corporation that is making profit, retained earnings.
公司会怎么处理这些留存收益呢？
What does the company do with those retained earnings?
是作为股息分给投资者吗？
Do they give it as a dividend to investors?
还是进行股票回购？
Do they do equity buybacks?
或者再投资到公司的运营中？
Do they reinvest it in the corporation into operations?
我觉得这是目前加密货币领域被忽视的一个细节。
And I think this is a nuance that is being missed right now in crypto.
因为你看，Hyperliquid 现在把大部分手续费都用来回购和销毁代币了。
Because you have, okay, you have Hyperliquid where the vast majority of their fees are going towards buybacks and burns right now.
而 PUMP 就比较随意一些，对吧？
You have PUMP, which is a bit more discretionary, right?
他们的回购没有固定的时间表。
They don't have a set schedule in terms of their buybacks.
他们的情况更复杂一些。
They're a bit more nuanced.
我觉得这些问题会变得非常重要，也就是说，如果我看好某个代币，它有点像某种代币化的股权，我希望有一个管理团队来决定如何最好地利用他们产生的利润。
And I think these are going be really important questions, which is that, if I'm really bullish on a token that has some sort of claim and closer to, like, a tokenized equity in some version or another, I wanna be able to have a management team that is making decision on the best use of those profits that they're generating.
你明白吗？
You know?
把99%的费用分给代币持有者，真的比把利润再投资到公司里、让它增长更合理吗？
Does it really make sense to give 99% of the fees away to token holders versus reinvesting in the company and growing?
因为如果重新投资，股权价值可能翻100倍呢？
Because what if that equity value 100x if you reinvest?
这就是Morpho的观点。
That's the morpho thesis.
没错。
Exactly.
这就是保罗说的。
That's what Paul says.
他说，听着，我不是为了10%的涨幅来的。
He's like, Look, I'm not going for a 10% move here.
我要的是100倍。
I'm going for the 100x.
我为什么要……所以你的意思是，Hyperliquid经历了一波大涨和成功，现在每个人都在看着他们，觉得那就是标准模式。
Why am I going And so what you're getting at is like Hyperliquid had this massive run and success and everyone is now looking at them being like, okay, that's the model.
但你说的是，那并不总是标准模式。
But what you're saying is that that's not always the model.
我的意思是，你看股票，看其他公司，有人可能会说Hyperliquid现在可能应该稍微减少一点回购。
I mean, you look at equities, you look at other companies, one could argue that Hyperliquid could probably tone down their buybacks a little bit at this point.
对。
Yeah.
对吧？
Right?
为什么还要继续这么做呢？
Like why keep doing it?
为什么不从99或者别的什么降到92或90呢？
Why not go from 99 or whatever it is to 92 or 90?
对。
Yeah.
因为已经反映在价格里了。
As as it's baked in the price.
作为投资者，对吧，
As an investor, right,
你看，我持有不少Hyperliquid。
you're looking at I this own a lot of Hyperliquid.
我非常看好这个。
I'm very bullish on that.
不，不，我是说
No, no, I'm
我是说，在90块的时候回购所有Hype，跟在9块的时候回购是完全不同的。
just saying buying back all the hype at 90 is different than buying it back at 9.
对。
Yeah.
对，百分之百。
Yeah, 100%.
所以你就开始关注CEO和创始人的这些自主决策。
And so you start to kind of look at these like discretionary decisions from the CEOs and founders.
我想你说的意思是，我们正在进入这个行业里那些真正在链上赚钱的公司的新一轮市场成熟阶段。
And I guess kind of like what you're saying is like, we're entering that next kind of era of market sophistication within the sector of the companies that are actually making money on chain.
现在还是有很多泡沫，要么你现在就在赚钱，要么你在想办法，要么你就得关门。
There's still this massive fat that is just like, you're either making money right now or you're figuring out, or you're going to shut down.
差不多吧。
Pretty much.
因为那才是会发生的事。
Because that's what's going happen.
但现在在收入这个大类里，开始出现分层了，我们也可以称之为链上业务。
But there is now this kind of like tier tier creating in the revenue meta category, or we call it just like on chain businesses.
对。
Yeah.
而且越来越多的专业玩家进场，不再只是看到公司赚钱就买。
And there's more kind of like sophisticated actors coming in, not just not just being like, oh, company makes money, buy.
对。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
我的意思是，基本上我们又回到了原点，我们有了这些有趣的新创新和基础设施，然后我们把传统的财务分析套用到上面。
I mean, so basically, we're just getting back full circle to we have this really interesting new innovations and infrastructure, and then we're attaching traditional financial analysis towards it.
没错。
Like Right.
对，我们就是在分析公司。
Yeah, we're getting towards just analyzing companies.
其实，我不是说DCF是决定买不买的唯一方法。
In fact, like, I'm not saying that DCFs are the only way to go here to decide whether you buy something or not.
但微妙之处在于，你知道，这个城市里有很多人整天整夜都在决定公司应该发债、发股、回购股票、分红，还是再投资到运营中。
But the nuance, you know, there's a lot of people in this city that are spending all day and night deciding on whether a company should, you know, issue debt, issue equity, buy back equity, give it as a dividend, or reinvest in operations.
这就是金融。
Like, that is Like is finance.
现在我们要对代币做同样的事情，因为代币实际上有相关的现金流。
And now we're going to be doing that for tokens because the tokens actually have cash flows associated with them.
所以这很棒。
So it's great.
我们终于到了那个点，我们已经停滞了五年。
We're finally getting to that point where we've been paused for five years.
我们唯一能做的就是不断重复所谓的基础设施创新。
And the only thing we could really do is just keep repeating this quote unquote innovation of infrastructure.
但现在我们已经有足够的基础设施了。
But we have plenty of infrastructure now.
我们挺好的。
We're good.
我们不再需要为主网上的交易支付150美元的费用了。
We're not paying $150 for a gas, like for a transaction on mainnet anymore.
我们现在处境不错。
We're in a good spot.
所以，现在进入下一个阶段吧。
So let's go to the next phase now.
而且我们得到了监管机构的批准。
And we got the green light from the regulators.
所以，是的，是时候真正开始推进这件事了。
So yeah, it's time to really just get going on this.
我完全同意。
And so I totally agree.
而且我的投资组合里有很多这些项目。
And a lot of my portfolio is positioned in a lot of these names.
我投资组合的另一部分，以及我们的思考方式，就是这种杠铃策略，一边是链上产生收入的项目，另一边是这类价值储存资产。
The other part of my portfolio and how we're thinking about it is this barbell thesis, which is you've got on chain revenue producing businesses and you've got these kind of store value assets.
对我来说，目前就是比特币、黄金，加密之外的，还有ZK和ETH。
Namely for me right now, Bitcoin, gold, outside of crypto, ZK and ETH.
所以这些就像我的四个反射性资产，价值积累不太明确，收入也不多，但货币政策属性明确，有大规模重估的潜力，尤其是比特币相对于黄金。
And so these are like my four reflexive, less clear value accrual, if any, less revenue, if any, but defined properties of monetary policy, potential for massive re ratings, especially Bitcoin compared to gold.
而且我认为ETH相对于比特币，ZK相对于比特币也有这种潜力。
And I think ETH compared to Bitcoin and I think ZK compared to Bitcoin.
所以这也是一个独立的趋势。
And so this is also like a separate tide.
你知道，如果Rob在的话，我们会深入探讨宏观经济的兔子洞，比如Bessent明天要出来，会买更多长期债券。
You know, if Rob was here, we'd go so deep down the macro rabbit hole, is Bessent's coming out tomorrow and he's going to buy a bunch more long dated bonds.
九月不太可能加息。
It's unlikely that wharsh hikes in September.
Arthur Hayes上节目说欧元日元会崩溃，我们会看到全面的大规模印钞。
And Arthur Hayes comes on the show and says the Euro Yen is going to collapse and we're going to see massive printing across the board.
人工智能的支出已经变得太疯狂了，如果政客们为了中期选举去游说，说我们要停止AI的支出，那我们错了。
The AI expenditure has gotten to be so crazy that if politicians go and lobby for midterms and say, we're going to stop the spending of AI, we were wrong.
那种想法简直离谱，根本不可能发生。
That is just that is outlandish to think that's going to happen.
所以所有这些因素都汇聚在一起，支持这个杠铃策略中法币贬值的那一端，这让投资组合非常出色。
And so you've got all these factors lining up for kind of like the fiat debasement part of this barbell, and it makes a really good portfolio.
跟我们说说你对宏观方面的看法吧。
Give us your sense here on the macro side.
Arthur说，更糟的情况无关紧要。
Arthur says, Worse is irrelevant.
Arthur说，我们正处于向更宽松金融政策过渡的阶段。
Arthur says, We're kind of in this transition phase into much more accommodative financial policy.
跟我们说说你对宏观的解读，以及这如何与你所说的那种反身性法币贬值投资组合相关联。
Give us your read of the macro and then how that kind of pertains to what I've come to understand is kind of like you're also kind of like reflexive fiat debasement portfolio.
对。
Yeah.
首先，我完全同意那个杠铃策略的观点。
So first off, I fully agree with that barbell thesis.
我的持仓也差不多。
I'm positioned very similarly.
我觉得这是正确的做法。
I think it's the move.
听起来太一致了。
Seems too consensus.
为什么这么一致？
And why is it so consensus?
是啊，我知道。
Yeah, I know.
我的意思是，之所以一致，是因为现在还在早期，其他人都基本离开了这个领域。
I mean, it's consensus because it's early and everybody else has basically left the space.
只有那些足够疯狂的人才会真的留在这里。
It's only the people that are just insane enough to actually be here.
我觉得不是这样，共识是在剩下的那二十个人里，他们足够坚韧，没有放弃，也没有去搞AI，对吧？
I don't think it's yes, consensus around the 20 people left that were just resilient enough to go bail, to not just go bail and work in AI, right?
所以我觉得我们意见一致不是什么坏信号。
So I mean, I don't think it's a bad signal that we're all aligned.
我不知道。
I don't know.
我觉得你是个很聪明的人，而且消息很灵通。
I feel like you're a very smart person and pretty tapped in.
不，我觉得这是好事。
No, I think it's good.
好的。
Okay.
所以从宏观方面来看，是的。
So on the macro side of things, yeah.
我们有斯科特·贝森特，而且我同意阿瑟·海斯的观点，就是美联储越来越重要，相比之下，财政部和财政当局的作用越来越不重要了。
So we have Scott Bessent, and I agree on Arthur Hayes' point that more and more the Fed is more and more relevant versus the treasury and versus what fiscal authorities are up to.
对。
Yeah.
我们现在正在朝那个方向大步前进。
We're moving a lot right now in that direction.
明天财政部长斯科特·贝森特就要进行他宣布的首次回购了。
So tomorrow treasury secretary Scott Bessent is gonna be doing his his first buyback that he announced.
几周前他宣布这件事时，最有趣的是，通常关于发行多少债务、债务构成以及回购规模的指导，都是每季度发布一次。
And what was so interesting about when he announced that a couple weeks ago was that, you know, typically, the the guidance for how much debt they're gonna issue, the composition of that debt, and how much buybacks they're gonna do comes on every quarter.
对吧？
Right?
就是那个每季度都会发布的季度再融资公告。
The the quarterly refunding announcement that happens every quarter.
那个已经发布了。
So that happened.
那个季度再融资公告，就在这次宣布前两周左右发布了。
That QRA happened, like, two weeks before this announcement.
然后突然之间，在那个公告里，你会想，好吧，如果他们打算在长期债券上做更多回购，他们当时就应该宣布了。
And then suddenly, you know, in that announcement, you would think, okay, if they're planning to do more buybacks on the long end, they would have announced it then.
对。
Right.
但两周后，突然有一天，贝森特毫无预兆地出来说，嘿，听着，我们将在9月9日把长期债券回购从20亿增加到40亿。
But then suddenly two weeks later, out of the blue on just a random day, Bessent comes out and says, hey, look, we're going to increase long end buybacks from 2 to 4,000,000,000 on September 9.
这真的很有意思，值得深思。
That is really interesting to think about.
比如，是什么导致了这种情况？
Like, what what happened there to cause that?
而在那之前，显然日元那边发生了很多事情。
And then in the lead up to it, obviously, there's all this stuff going on with the yen.
日本，显然，我们看到了一些相当重大的干预。
Japan, obviously, you know, we we've seen some pretty meaningful interventions.
我认为这是美国和日本三十年来首次协调一致的干预行动。
The first, you know, aligned intervention between The US and Japan, I think, in thirty years or something like that.
所以，这些都是非常重要的时刻。
So so very meaningful moments.
贝森特还接受了几次采访，说他和市场之间存在信息不对称，关于日本的情况，他知道的比市场多。
And couple interviews there from from Bessent saying that, you know, there's there's information there's information asymmetry that he has that the market does not quite yet in terms of what's going on with Japan.
我感觉，周末有一些消息，日本财务省发布了月度报告，谈到了他们的外汇储备。
Feels to me like, you know, there's some some news over the weekend that we got the the monthly release from the Ministry of Finance of Japan where they talk about their their foreign exchange holdings.
就是他们持有多少美国国债。
So it's like how much treasuries they own.
数据显示，8月份他们卖出了870亿美元的美国国债，这是月度环比最大的降幅，用来为那次干预提供资金。
And they saw the biggest decrease on a month from month basis, dollars 87,000,000,000 of sales of treasuries in August to fund that intervention.
是他们自己的还是美国国债？
Of their own or of US treasuries?
是他们持有的美国国债。
Of US treasuries that they own.
所以他们卖掉国债，换成美元，然后用这些美元去买日元。
So they sold the treasuries to to buy to buy doll to have dollars to then go and and buy the end.
明白了。
So Got it.
我觉得他说的信息不对称就是指这个，也就是说，如果日本在卖美国国债，那对现在的情况来说可不是什么好兆头。
I have a feeling that's what he was kinda referring to in terms of that information asymmetry, which is that look, you know, if if the if Japan's selling treasuries, that's not a good look right now for where we're at.
你知道，现在十年期和三十年期国债收益率都快要到5%了。
You know, we have the ten year, the thirty year knocking on 5% yields right now.
所以，像日本这样的大持有者，而且是最大的美国国债持有者之一，显然不是什么好事。
So, you know, any sort of huge holders in Japan's, you know, the biggest of of treasuries, that's obviously not a good thing.
所以这就说得通了。
So it starts to make a lot more sense Yeah.
他为什么那么积极，说话方式也那样。
About why he was being so proactive and and how he was talking.
所以，一旦我们开始谈论这种直接的财政干预，尤其是在货币方面，你提到的那些经典的贬值资产就会开始活跃起来。
So, obviously, as soon as we start to talk about outright fiscal intervention like that, especially in currencies, those classic debasement assets that you mentioned start to perk up.
显然，在宣布回购的那天，我们就看到黄金和比特币大涨。
And obviously, on the day of that buyback announcement, we just saw gold and Bitcoin rip.
最近几周黄金回吐了不少涨幅，我觉得这和那种对沃什的恐慌或担忧有关。
Gold's given up quite a bit of those gains in recent weeks, and I think that has to do with this warsh hysteria or fear.
也许算不上恐慌，但就是市场长期以来已经习惯了每次会议都确切知道美联储要做什么。
Maybe not hysteria, but it's just, you know, the market's been so used to for so long knowing exactly what the Fed is gonna do every meeting.
而现在，就像我的工作假设一样，不是每次会议都按部就班，我们应该看到当前情况和可能走向之间的概率是五五开。
And now like my working thesis has not been going in every meeting, we should see odds of fiftyfifty between where we're at and where we might potentially go.
所以我觉得，就像七月份的上次会议，当时暂停加息还是加息也是五五开。
So I think it's, you know, last meeting in July, we had it at fiftyfifty where there's gonna be a pause or a hike.
结果我们暂停了。
We got a pause.
现在，我们即将迎来下周的会议，概率也差不多是五五开。
Right now, we're coming into the meeting next week, and we're around fifty fifty as well.
周五有一个非常重要的CPI数据要公布。
We have this really important CPI print on Friday.
那很可能会决定我们接下来的走向。
That'll probably be the deciding factor on where we go.
但在这期间，你知道，如果美联储真的采取鹰派政策，那些简单的相关性和算法就会反映出来，从而抛售黄金。
But in the interim, you know, if if there is hawkish policy coming from the Fed, just the simple correlations and and algorithms reflecting that are gonna sell gold.
所以，显然，黄金首当其冲，而且黄金……抱歉。
So, obviously, that's been been taking the brunt of it, and gold's and sorry.
比特币一直在震荡。
Bitcoin's been chopping around.
它并没有回吐那么多涨幅，我觉得那是因为过去一年左右它被过度抛售，而且空头仓位太多了。
It hasn't really given back as much gains, and I think that's just because it was so sold down in the last year or so, and there's so many shorts.
所以，你知道，总的来说，我认为显然很多事情都取决于周五的CPI数据。
So, you know, all that to say, I think, obviously, a lot is gonna lie on the on the CPI print on Friday.
我不认为明天……我的意思是，你看。
I don't think tomorrow I mean, look.
如果明天贝森特真的像他说的那样投入40亿美元，我不觉得那会是什么影响市场的大事件。
If if Bessent comes in tomorrow and just does the 4,000,000,000 like he says, I don't think that's gonna really be much of a market moving event.
不是那种“买预期，卖事实”或者“买消息，推高价格”的情况。
Not like a buy the rumor, sell the news, or buy the news and pump it.
就是有点像，对。
It's just kinda like Yeah.
它就要来了。
It's coming right.
已经发生了。
Happened.
不过，在最初发布的时候，他说40亿是底线。
Except for the fact that in that initial release, he said 4,000,000,000 was a floor.
他确实让人觉得那是最低限度了。
He really made it seem like that's the absolute bare minimum.
所以我不确定。
So I don't know.
也许他明天出来，如果真的想要那种反应，他会真的买50亿。
Maybe he comes out and actually does 5,000,000,000 tomorrow if he wants to get that certain reaction that he wants.
但事实是，我觉得有很多人想逆势操作，跟它对着干。
But the fact of the matter is, like, I don't think it's, you know, there's a lot of people that are trying to fade this and fight it.
而且，你知道，现在有一批宏观思想家认为美联储会加息，贝森特无法对抗债券市场。
And, you know, there's a certain cohort of of macro thinkers right now that believe that, you know, the Fed is gonna hike and that Bessent can't fight the bond market.
我的意思是，日元在160的时候他们也是这么说的。
I mean, they're saying the same thing about the yen when it was at 160.
他们进行了干预，汇率又回到160，大家都在嘲笑他，还绕场跑圈。
And they did this intervention and it went back to 160 and everybody was laughing at him and taking laps.
现在突然，我今天还没看这个数据，但我们当时交易在153左右。
And now suddenly, I didn't look this today yet, but we were trading around 153.
所以，这招管用。
So like- it's working.
关于这一点，沃什，我去了杰克逊霍尔。
So on that point, Warsch so I was at Jackson Hole.
那里真是疯狂。
It was was wild.
是的。
Yeah.
那看起来太疯狂了。
That looked that looked crazy.
你见到沃什了。
You saw Warsch.
是的。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
我见到了很多厉害的人。
I met all these cool people.
是的。
Yeah.
我完全不是那个圈子的，但挺有意思的。
I was way out of my own league, but it was fun.
挺有意思的。
It was fun.
太棒了。
Sick.
然后沃什开始那段演讲，实际上就是直接引用他在杰克逊霍尔做过的两次徒步。
And so War starts that hike or sorry, starts that speech literally referencing two physical hikes that he's done in Jackson Homom.
完全是在调侃。
Totally trolling.
对对对。
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
就是闹着玩。
Just messing
然后他花了大概五分钟讲他有多讨厌前瞻性指引。
And then me spends like five minutes talking about how he hates forward guidance.
所以以我这种简单的脑子来看，如果这家伙要加息，他刚才那五分钟的调侃式独白简直是把答案直接端到我们面前了。
And so my left curve smooth brain take is like, if this guy hikes, he literally just he literally gave it to us on a platter by his five minute monologue trolling us about hikes.
我知道事情没那么简单，但说了这么多，你觉得他会加息吗？
And I know it's not always that simple, but all that to say, do you think he hikes?
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我觉得他不会加息，但我准备好被证明是错的。
I don't think he hikes, but I'm I'm ready to get proven wrong.
但你知道，这就是我押注的地方。
But, you know, that's where I'm staking my claim.
我不知道。
I don't know.
显然，这还得看CPI数据。
Like, obviously, again, it's gonna depend on the CPI print.
如果周五的通胀数据特别火爆，尤其是上周就业报告那么强劲，那可能真的会加息，我就得打脸了。
If we get a scorching hot inflation print on Friday, like, that is you know, especially with the super hot Jaws report that we got last week, like, yeah, probably you're gonna hike, I'm gonna have egg on my face.
不过也无所谓。
So but whatever.
我的意思是，在市场上你就得下注。
I mean, you just gotta gotta make these bets in the markets.
预计CPI是3.4%。
Estimate CPI is 3.4%.
核心是2.4。
Core is 2.4.
对。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
所以我不太确定。
So I don't know.
我的意思是，比如
I mean, like
你觉得比预估数字高出多少才算加息？
How much higher do you think than the estimated number would it would like, would would just breaking even be a hike?
高出0.1%算加息吗？
Would 0.1% higher be a hike?
高出0.3%呢？
Point 3%?
有点，对。
What's kinda Yeah.
这总是取决于通胀结构中哪一部分在变动。
It always it always depends what part of the the inflation structure is moving.
因为显然，整体通胀率包括能源和食品这些项目。
Because, obviously, like, headline includes energy and and food and that sort of thing.
所以能源，你知道的，波动非常大，尤其是现在伊朗那边在打仗。
So energy, you know, it's super volatile, especially with an Iran war happening right now.
显然，过去一个月左右，我们看到油价上涨了，但这是针对上个月的数据，而那时的油价还算合理。
Like, obviously, over the last month or so, we've seen oil go higher, but this is for the previous month's print and the oil prices were pretty reasonable.
所以如果整体通胀率稍微偏高，我不确定那会不会成为决定性因素。
So if headline is a little bit hot, I don't know if that will be what breaks it.
但如果你开始看到通胀中位数普遍上升，或者各个领域都这样，那就不一样了。
But if you start to see just this widespread of like, what the median rise in inflation across the board?
或者某些特定领域出现这种情况呢？
Or certain sectors of that?
这真的要看情况。
It really depends.
所以如果我看核心数据，我最关注的大概就是核心CPI的环比变化。
So if I see core, probably the most important one I'm looking at is core CPI month over month, basically.
如果这个数据偏高的话，我觉得——别引用我的话——大概已经连续好一阵子维持在20个基点左右的环比增幅了，有时候20个基点，有时候30个基点，差不多这样。
If that's hot, and I think, don't quote me on this, but I think it's roughly been around like 20 bps month over month for quite a while now between 20 bps, 30 bps, something like that.
如果核心环比达到40个基点，那他们很可能会加息。
If you get 40 bps core month over month, yeah, they probably hike.
但我不确定，我就是觉得不太可能发生。
But I don't know, like, I just don't really see that happening.
我觉得可以说，这轮通胀很大程度上跟AI和AI基础设施建设有关。
Like, I think it's warranted to say that a lot of this inflation has been the AI thing and the AI build out.
这一点现在已经很明确了。
Like, that's been pretty clear cut at this point.
我们还没真正进入生产力爆发的阶段。
Like, we're not quite in the productivity boom side of things.
我们现在处于投资热潮阶段，这本身就必然会带来通胀。
We're in the investment boom side of things right now, and that's just gonna be inherently inflationary.
所以，你知道，我只是……
So, you know, I just
那你觉得他能像7月那样维持利率不变，同时在美国人民面前保持信誉吗？
So you think he can hold rates steady like he's been doing in July and maintain credibility amongst the American, you know, the American people?
我觉得，不。
I mean, no.
我不这么认为。
I no.
问题是，他应该这么做。
Like, he should this is the thing.
他应该做的和他实际会做的是两回事。
There's what he should be doing and what he will do.
嗯，那正是……
Well, that's what
对。
I Yeah.
他应该做的可能是加息。
What he should be doing is probably hiking.
或者至少，你知道，一次保险性加息。
Or at least, you know, one insurance hike.
赶紧搞定，以确立可信度。
Just get it done as established credibility.
所以，你知道，这里有一种说法。
So, you know, there's a there's a certain narrative there.
但是，你知道，你只是听到，再说一次，我更加坚信美联储的独立性不如以前了。
But, you know, you just hear you know, again, I'm just so much more attached to this idea that the Fed is a lot less independent than it was.
你知道，它从来都不是真正独立的，但它现在受财政当局的影响更大。
You know, it's never really independent, but it's a lot more influenced by fiscal authorities.
你知道，贝森特和沃什每周都会见面。
You know, Bessent and Worsh are meeting every week.
沃什一直在跟特朗普通话。
Worsh is talking to Trump all the time.
你
You
知道吗？
know?
对。
Yeah.
鲍威尔整个任期内跟特朗普交谈的次数屈指可数。
Powell only talked to Trump a handful of times in his entire tenure.
所以现在协调多了很多。
So there's a lot more coordination.
然后有个采访，贝森特在谈沃什应该怎么做。
And then you have an interview where Bessent's talking about, you know, what should Worsh do?
他说，我不做预测，但通常来说，你不会在供应冲击时加息，这就是他说的，然后……
And he says, I'm not in the business of predicting, but typically, you don't hike into a supply shock is what he said, which
这有点像，
is kind of like,
你知道，不要加息。
you know, don't hike.
然后显然，上周特朗普在推特上说了很多，你知道，他说利率应该降到1%，因为我们有最好的信用，那是他的观点。
And then obviously, you have Trump tweeting plenty last week talking about, you know, we should have rates at 1% because we have the the best credit, and that's his perspective.
所以我不确定。
And so I don't know.
我就是不明白，这怎么能和沃什的背景以及他在任期内如何承诺相协调。
I just I just don't I don't see how you can square that with Warsh's background and how he gone to the tenure for him to commit.
除非他说，嘿，听着，我们要加息一次，只是为了建立信誉。
Unless he says, hey, look, we're gonna do one hike and just establish credibility.
对。
Right.
但我不认为我们会进入持续的加息周期。
But I don't think we're gonna go into sustained heights hike cycle.
我真的不相信这一点。
I I truly don't believe that.
所以你觉得沃什可能会感到某种压力，或者体会到央行行长的那种煎熬？
So you think Warsh may feel some sort of pressure or kind of feel the anguish of central banking?
哦，是的。
Oh, yeah.
他的委员会分歧非常大。
His committee is super divided.
我是说，上次会议就有多次异议，而且我觉得还会有更多。
I mean, there is multiple dissents last meeting, and I think I think there'll be more.
但问题就在这里，对吧？
But this is the thing, right?
比如，州长沃勒上周发表了一个可能偏鸽派的讲话。
Like, is a governor Waller was out last week with a fairly, maybe dovish speech.
但再说一次，他现在做事的方式就是，他说，看，如果我们……他的框架，回到CPI，就是如果我们得到一个火热的CPI，我就会投票支持加息。
But again, this is his his whole way of doing things right now is he says, look, if we so his framework, getting back to CPI, is that if we get a hot CPI, I'm voting for a hike.
我觉得，很有可能FOMC的投票结果会几乎五五开。哇。
I think, like, there's a decent probability you have an almost evenly split FOMC Wow.
下周，所以，是的，他现在在委员会里确实有压力要完成这件事。
In next week, which so, yeah, like, he has pressure in the committee right now to get that done.
所以关键在于他如何处理这个局面，以及他是否会表态说，好吧。
So it's about whether how he navigates that and whether he says, okay.
行。
Fine.
嗯，你知道，我们会把它加进去的。
Well, you know, we'll we'll get it in there.
我们会加息的。
We'll get the hike.
而且我认为，那次加息实际上会有助于降低长期债券收益率，具体取决于市场如何看待那次加息。
And and I think that hike would actually help bring lower long term bond yields depending on how that hike is perceived.
如果市场认为这是它一直在呼吁的加息，而事实也差不多是这样。
If it's as this hike that the market is kind of screaming for, which it kind of is.
比如你看七月份的会议，我们本来打算加息50个基点，但他选择了暂停，然后长期国债就被抛售，收益率反而上去了。
Like, if you look at the July meeting, know, we went at $50.50, he chose to pause, and then the long bond sold off and yields went higher.
所以如果反过来，我猜长期国债收益率会下降。
Soon, if you get the opposite of that, I would imagine that long bonds would go lower.
最近收益率上升很多，其实——我们不用太深入债券数学——要么是长期债券里的通胀预期成分在起作用，要么是期限溢价，就是投资者持有更长期资产所要求的额外补偿。
A lot of the move higher in yields recently has actually been, like we don't need to get too nerdy here on bond math, but you either have this inflation expectations component within within long bonds or you have this term premium term premium, which is just basically this premium that investors want for holding a longer duration asset.
你几乎可以把它看作是对美联储整体信誉的一种体现。
You can almost view that as a as a component for for Fed credibility in general.
而最近这波上涨，其实并不是通胀预期在上升。
And a lot of this move higher recently hasn't actually been the inflation expectations going higher.
而是期限溢价在上升。
It's been the term premium going higher.
所以既然上升的是这个，我觉得如果我们看到加息，长期国债收益率反而会下降，虽然我不确定市场会怎么看，但如果这被理解为一次性的加息，长期国债收益率就会下降。
So because that's what's been going higher, I feel like if we saw a hike, long bond yields would actually go lower, which I don't know, if that's perceived, it's just like the one and done hike and long bond goes yields.
这是看涨的。
It's bullish.
这有点看涨。
It's kind of bullish.
对。
Yeah.
对，对，没错。
Yeah, yeah, exactly.
但如果市场认为，哎呀，这家伙是个鹰派，要开始新一轮加息周期了，那我们就麻烦了。
But if it's perceived as like, Oh, this guy's a hawk and he's starting a new hiking cycle, then we're in trouble.
我在杰克逊霍尔采访了资深经济学家亚当·波森。
I spoke to senior economist Adam Posen in Jackson Hole.
不知道你听没听过他的名字。
I'm not sure if you're familiar with any of his workers' name.
他是华盛顿一家经济研究所的所长。
He's a president of an economic institute out in DC.
对于九月份的会议，他基本上就是耸了耸肩。
And he basically gave me a shrug of his shoulders for the September meeting.
对。
Yeah.
但他告诉我，到12月百分之百会降息。
But he gave me a 100% by December.
所以如果9月没降，12月也会降。
So if it doesn't happen in September, it happens in December.
我觉得12月有可能。
I can see December.
你怎么看这种所谓的“保险式降息”？
What is your read on this kind of quote unquote insurance hike?
这对我们来说是不是更好？
Is it better for us?
因为我想问你，在这些不同的情况下，你的投资组合有什么新变化。
Because I'm gonna ask you what you're new with your portfolio, you know, in these different, you know, events.
你觉得什么对市场更有利？
What, you know, what what is better for the market, do you think?
现在还是到时候？
Now or then?
我是说，是的，他可能……我是说，这就是问题所在。
I mean, yeah, he could I mean, that's the thing.
他说他不喜欢前瞻性指引，但他可能会说，对，我们暂停一下，但可能12月会加息。
He says he doesn't like forward guidance, but he could be like Yeah.
我们暂停一下，但可能12月会加息。
We're pausing here, but, like, maybe hike in December.
对。
Yeah.
我是说，天哪，如果他9月不加息，而经济仍然像现在这样强劲，我完全能预见12月会加息。
I mean, man, if he if he doesn't hike in September and we still get, you know, pretty positive hot economy like we have right now, I could totally see December.
而且，你知道，那也是在中期选举之后。
And, you know, that's after the midterms too.
对，没错。
Like Right.
美联储不会，如果他们真的必须加息，他们会在选举前加息，但他们宁愿不这样做。
The Fed isn't gonna if they really have to hike, they will hike in front of an election, but they would prefer not to.
我觉得那会是
I think it would be
比如前一个月
Like the month before
或者，比如，十一月那个月。
or, like, the month of coming up in November.
对吧？
Right?
所以九月加息有点麻烦。
So to hike in September is kinda messy.
对。
Yeah.
这
It
是的。
is.
相比之下，12月加息的话，我觉得影响会大很多。
Versus in December, I feel like it's it's a lot.
所以我觉得这大概就是他的想法，我非常同意这一点。
So I'm perhaps that's, like, what he's thinking, and I would definitely agree with that.
对，是的。
Like Yeah.
我也不确定。
I don't know.
感觉不管我们愿不愿意，加息迟早会来。
It feels like eventually we have a hike coming whether we like it or not.
确实。
Sure.
好的。
Okay.
那我们来聊聊你的投资组合吧。
So then let's talk about your portfolio.
我想你的投资应该分散在股票、债券、大宗商品等等这些方面。
I imagine you're diversified across equities, bonds, or stocks, commodities, etcetera.
但在加密货币这边，你是怎么操作的？
But on the crypto side, what do you do here?
对吧？
Right?
所以我猜你是看涨的。
So you're bullish, I assume.
我觉得你是认为底部已经出现的那一派。
Think you're in the camp that the bottom's in.
也许会有一些波动，但你期望从你买入Zcash的价格能获得一个周期级别的回报。
And maybe there's some volatility, but you're looking for like a cycle level return from your Zcash entry.
你之前告诉我大概在700到800美元左右。
You told me around $700 or $800.
我不知道你是不是打算公开说这个，但我们现在已经说出来了。
I don't if you're coming with that being public, but here we are.
我们正在直播。
We're live.
抱歉，菲利克斯。
Sorry, Felix.
你怎么看？
What's your take?
你是打算在上涨时减持吗？
Are you trimming on a hike?
你是打算在上涨时逢低买入吗？
Are you buying dips on a hike?
你是打算在上涨时准备好现金吗？
Are you getting cash ready for a hike?
还是你就打算一直持有，扛过去？
Are you just holding through it?
你觉得呢？
You know, what's your take?
对。
Yeah.
关于Zcash，我在底部附近，大概55到60k的时候，就慢慢开始囤比特币了。
So on the Zcash thing, I so, you know, near the bottom there, between, I don't know, 55, 60 k or whatever, I was just like slowly accumulating Bitcoin.
就是觉得，是时候了。
And just like, you know, it's time.
七月份的时候，我以为市场已经把最鹰派的情况都消化了，不会再跌了。
You know, back in July, I thought that max hawkishness was priced in and that we couldn't really go any further.
不知道这个判断对不对。
I don't know if that's been proven right.
也不知道是不是错了。
I don't know if it's proven wrong.
只是这个过程比预想的要长。
It's just kind of taking longer to play out.
但我就想，嘿，你看，这感觉是个开始建仓的好时机。
But I was like, hey, look, like this feels like a good spot to start building in there.
加密货币市场已经经历了很多痛苦。
We've had a lot of pain in crypto markets.
我打算开始配置资金了。
I'm going start allocating.
所以我就开始这么做了。
So I started to do that.
然后真的开始越来越多地研究Zcash方面的论点。
And then really just started to research more and more on the Zcash side of the thesis.
对，说实话，我一直有长期持仓，然后可能只是做短线交易。
Yeah, to be honest, I always have long term holdings, and then maybe I'm just trading short term stuff.
然后偶尔持有Zcash作为交易，那也挺好的，但从未真正深入研究它的逻辑。
And then held Zcash for little moments here and there as a trade, that was all well and good, but never really dove deeply into the thesis of it.
最近这段时间我越来越深入了。
And I got more into more over the last little bit.
然后我就想，看吧，我打算把一部分比特币换成Zcash。
And I was like, look, I think I'm gonna rotate some of that Bitcoin into Zcash.
我喜欢它的隐私性。
I like that it's private.
它显然有这种屏蔽功能。
It obviously has this shielded thing.
我觉得这真的很重要。
And I think that's really important.
你知道，你会听到像瑞·达利欧这样的人，对吧，谈论比特币，你知道，他喜欢黄金。
Know, you hear you hear guys like Ray Dalio, right, talking about bit you know, he he loves gold.
他会喜欢比特币，但他认为隐私应该是那里的核心原则。
He would like Bitcoin, but he thinks that privacy should be a a a core tenant there.
他会爱上Zcash的。
He's gonna love Zcash.
没错。
Exactly.
而且，你知道，对于那些大型机构投资者来说，量子计算的问题也确实很严重。
And then and then, you know, for for those those big institutional allocators as well, the the quantum thing is also really is
确实很严重。
is serious.
对。
Yeah.
就是说，我们不会因为这个问题一夜之间归零。
Like, it's, you know, it's not we're not gonna go to zero overnight because of it.
但如果未来八年左右一直有这个顾虑，我们可能就不会看到那么多资金投入进去。
But we're not gonna see as much allocation towards it if there's this hang up over the next eight years or so.
对吧？
Right?
这些
Like, these
都是长期投资者。
are long term allocators.
嗯，这是一种你想作为体系外资产持有的资产。
Well, part of an asset that you wanna hold as a out of the system asset.
对。
Yeah.
这些资产的核心意义就在于能够把它们存放起来。
The whole point with these assets is to be able to put them away.
对。
Yeah.
有些人会埋起来。
Some people bury them.
有些人会放在银行里。
Some people put them in banks.
对。
Yeah.
有些人会记录在账本上。
Some people put them in ledgers.
而且你希望十年后还能拥有同样的资产，而不必非得迁移到量子安全的钱包里。
And you want to be able to have the same asset ten years from now without having to go shift to a quantum secure wallet.
这就是关键，对吧？
The whole point, right?
就像你想从地里挖出黄金，拿起来，它还是那一盎司，对吧？
Like you want to go get your gold from the ground and pick it up and it's still going to be that same one ounce of Yeah.
所以，考虑到隐私和量子方面，我觉得他们现在在实现量子韧性方面的路线图比比特币清晰得多。
So with the privacy, with the quantum aspect, I just think they have a much clearer roadmap right now for getting to be quantum resilient versus Bitcoin right now.
核心开发者们在这方面更加一致，也更主动，而不是像比特币那样有点把头埋在沙子里。
The core devs are a lot more aligned on that and proactive versus just kind of, head in the sands approach of Bitcoin.
我仍然持有比特币，但你看价格，看起来确实不错。
I still own Bitcoin, but it's just like, look at price, it looks really good.
而且你知道它的那些问题，比如，我想大家听到我批评塞勒那件事都不会感到意外。
And you know that the hang ups of it, like, I don't think anybody would be surprised to hear that I've been critical of like Sailor and that whole thing.
当然。
Of course.
所以感觉就干净利落多了。
And so it just feels a lot cleaner.
所以我就想，好吧，那接下来两年左右的时间，我觉得在千元以下买入挺有吸引力的。所以就是这样，然后配一些黄金和一些比特币。
So I'm like, okay, well, on the next, say two year time horizon, I think it's a pretty compelling idea to buy it down here sub a thousand on So those that's that, and then some gold and some Bitcoin.
再次强调，我完全同意你的杠铃策略。
Again, I'm fully aligned with you on the barbell thesis.
所以这就是我的杠铃配置。
So that's my barbell.
知道了。
Good to know.
聪明人。
Smart guy.
听起来不错。
Sounds good.
对。
Yeah,
然后另一边，就是整个，你知道，我们在节目开头聊到的那些有实际价值的代币。
and then the other side, it's the whole, you know, everything we talked about at the start of the show of actual value occurring tokens.
所以是的，Hyperliquid、LITS 很棒，比如 Lighter。
So yeah, Hyperliquid, LITS great, like Lighter.
好的，那就是你的投资组合，对吧？
Okay, so that's your portfolio, right?
对。
Yeah.
所以我们不会深入讨论所有币种，也不会开始炒作垃圾币。
So we don't get into all the names and start pumping shitcoins.
对，不会。
Yeah, no.
但这不构成财务建议。
But not financial advice.
对。
Yeah.
但我们真正需要知道的是，你的计划是什么？
But what we do need to know is what's your plan?
对于杠铃策略的两端，结合加息的情况，你的计划是什么？但更重要的是，展望2027年，对吧？
What's your plan with both sides of this barbell with relation to the hikes, but really just like going into 2027, right?
因为我的意思是，天哪，事情发展得太快了。
Because I mean, man, stuff's going crazy fast.
我觉得只会更快地变得更疯狂。
I think it's only gonna get crazier faster.
但然后就像，我们是不是……对。
But then like, are we yeah.
就像，你的计划是什么？
Like, what's your plan?
对。
Yeah.
所以，我的意思是，这总是归结于你建仓时的价格。
So, I mean, it always comes down to the price you got into the positions.
我现在已经有足够的缓冲了，所以如果九月份的加息我判断错了，被套了，那也无所谓。
I have enough of a buffer in now that I'm willing to again, if I'm wrong on hikes in September and I get smoked, whatever, that's fine.
我觉得接下来一年左右，价格反正会高很多，所以我真的不太在乎。
I think over the next year or so, there'll be a lot higher anyway, so I don't really care.
我愿意短期承受一些痛苦，来押这个注。
I'm willing to to ride some some pain in the short term to to have that bet on.
所以，是的，我不会削减仓位。
So, yeah, I'm I'm not trimming into it.
那关于2027年，你怎么看？
And then twenty twenty seven's thoughts like 2027.
我现在持有的，我打算到时候还继续持有。
I own right now, I plan to still own it over then.
但那是核心持仓。
But that's like the core holdings.
然后，你知道，我总有一个活跃的交易账户，就是做永续合约那些。
And then, you know, I always have like an active trading book, which is just, you know, perps and all that stuff.
对。
Yeah.
今天早上抓到了丹尼斯·朗。
Caught that Dennis Long this morning.
来办公室的时候，我感觉特别兴奋。
Was feeling I I was euphoric coming to the office.
十六号的Elo。
The day sixteen's Elo.
对。
Yeah.
我当时特别兴奋。
I was so euphoric.
我重仓砸进去了，然后……
I smashed it in size and then
30，对。
30 Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
完全错过了那件事。
Missed that whole thing.
不。
No.
我的意思是，这就是为什么我有一个目的账户。
I mean, but that's why I have a purpose account.
对。
Yeah.
没错。
Exactly.
它很小。
It's small.
你懂我的意思吗？
You know what I mean?
这几乎就是闹着玩的，但确实是这样。
It's just like for fun almost, but it's Yeah.
但在牛市里，你可以把它炒上去。
But in bull markets, you can run it up.
对。
Yeah.
我一直都喜欢把它分开来。
I'm always I'm always a fan of having it be separate.
比如说，有
Like, have
对。
Yeah.
那个无聊的SPY ETF。
The boring, SPY ETF.
我从来不碰它。
I don't touch it ever.
我有一些核心持仓，打算持有几年，然后可能拿一小部分钱随便玩玩，试着把它做大，再慢慢转成长期持仓，就这样。
I have the core holdings that I'm gonna have for the next couple of years, and then maybe a small portion that I'm just messing around with and maybe try to run it up and try to rotate that into long holdings and just
对，我也是这么想的。
Yep, that's my take through.
没错。
True.
比如我的永续合约账户就是为现货Zcash服务的。
Like my perps account is a funnel for spot Zcash.
对，对，就是这样。
Yeah, yeah, exactly.
就是这么回事。
That's what it is.
就是这种持续的……我其实在飞机上还在写交易日志。
It's just this constant like And I literally was writing in my trading journal on my flight.
我当时就想，好吧，我的合约账户差点又坐了一趟过山车，结果又创了新高。
I was like, all right, I've almost round tripped my perps account twice and brought it back to new all time highs.
每次创新高或者大赚一笔，我都会把利润转到另一个账户里的ZK，就存在那儿。
Every new all time high or every new big trade, I'm taking my profits into ZK into ZK in a different account and I'm just storing it there.
如果我想再赚回来，我就再操作一次。
And if I need to run it up again, I'll do it again.
但我不会像有些人那样，赚了5万，又亏4万，然后又赚5万。
But I'm not just doing this whole thing where I'm like, you're up 50 ks and then you're down 40 and then you're up 50 again.
就像，兄弟，我刚赚了10万，结果只剩2万了。
It's just like, dude, I just made a 100 ks, but I only have 20 left.
这算怎么回事？
It's like, what did I just do?
对。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
这太疯狂了。
It's insane.
我想就在这里收个尾吧。
I guess just to close out here.
天哪，我刚才想问什么来着？
Damn, what was I gonna ask?
我的意思是，我就是看好市场，兄弟。
I mean, I'm just bullish, man.
我就是很乐观。
I'm just bullish.
就像，这……
Like, it's
我是说，也许我们可以聊聊行业的现状，因为很明显在过去一年左右，一直有一种，我不想说是生存危机，但你看到现在AI领域到处都在爆发，真的很不可思议。
I mean, it's not like, maybe we could talk a little bit about the state of the industry because obviously over the last year or so, there's just been this kind of, I don't wanna say existential crisis, but you just see everything popping off in AI right now, and it's incredible.
而他们都在这里想，我们现在做的事情对吗？
And they're all left here being like, are we doing the right thing right now?
过去一年里，确实有一些相当黑暗的时刻。
Like, there's obviously some pretty dark moments there over the last year.
我只是觉得，是的，氛围已经转变，开始好转了。
And I just feel like, yeah, the vibe has shifted, started to turn.
而且，你知道，我相信价格先行，叙事随后。
And, you know, I am a believer that, you know, price leads and narrative follows.
所以，显然，几周前我们有过这样一个时刻，比特币有很多空头，而且有很多人，如果他们要卖的话，早就卖了。
So obviously, you know, we had this this moment a couple weeks ago where there's just there's a lot of shorts in in Bitcoin, and there is a lot of people who, if they wanted to sell, had already sold.
这就像一个水下的沙滩球，然后就是那个瞬间。
And it's just like a beach ball underwater, and then there's just that one moment.
其实，这种贬值的事情到底有多真实，并不重要。
Like, it doesn't even really matter how true this debasement thing is or not.
它是否足以引发一些事情。
Was It enough to spark something.
然后空头平仓，你就得到了空头挤压。
And then you get the shorts close, you get the short squeeze.
突然之间，我们就站上了200日均线。
Suddenly, we're above the 200 moving average.
然后感觉就是，好了，我们回来了。
And it's like, okay, we're back.
接着大家又开始兴奋起来了。
And then suddenly people get excited again.
然后突然SEC出来说，这是你们能做的，那是不能做的。
And then suddenly you have the SEC come out and say, here's what you guys are allowed to do or not do.
所以放手去尝试，玩得开心，搞点真正酷的东西出来。
So go out there and experiment and have fun and, create some really cool stuff.
是啊，我也不太确定。
Yeah, I don't know.
看到风向变了，感觉真好。
Feels good to see the tide turning.
但我觉得不是所有人都已经跟上来了。
But I don't think everyone is on board yet.
对，绝对是的。
No, definitely.
我一直在想，而且这些是我经历了四次被市场打击后学到的，对吧？
I always think about, and I've learned these things through now four cycles of getting wrecked, right?
那就是，下一个边际买家是谁？
Which is who's the next marginal buyer?
如果你回答不了这个问题，那这个仓位可能就该卖掉了。
If you can't answer that question, the position probably needs to be sold.
但现在，我觉得是加密货币圈内的人。
But right now, I mean, I feel like it's crypto natives one.
所以还有很多圈内的人，你知道，有些资本离开了，但那些还在但错过了低点的人，正在等着回调。
So there's still a lot of crypto native, you know, capital people that left, but people who are still here but just missed the lows, know, waiting for a pullback.
就像Thread上那个人一直说的，兄弟，比特币必须到72000，因为肯定会到那里，然后你会完美抄底，一切都会很好。
Like Thread guy keeps saying, Bro, Bitcoin has to go to 72 ks because it's guaranteed to go there and you're going to buy the dip perfectly and everything's going to be great.
所以还是有那种，谁在圈内谁不在圈内的感觉。
So there's still that kind of like, who's in and who's not in the industry.
我觉得这些资金会把比特币推到八万五到八万八左右，然后山寨币就会开始FOMO。
I think that capital takes us to mid eighties to like high eighties on Bitcoin and then FOMO on alts.
可能之后会有回调，反正就是震荡、震荡、回调，像那种大波动之后。
Probably some pullback, whatever, chop, chop, chop, pull back on like big moves.
然后我觉得下一批买家就是那些聪明的高净值个人、ETF，还有基金。
And I think the next buyers after that is the smart high net worth individuals and ETFs and then funds.
然后大家就会说，哎呀，我们错过比特币了。
And like people are like, oh shit, we miss Bitcoin.
现在都八万五了。
It's at 85 now.
从九万三跌下来的。
It's down from 93.
现在赶紧进场吧。
Let's get in now.
所以就是那些大基金和你那些有钱的朋友，他们都在联系自己的顾问，就是那些净资产五百万到一千万的人。
So that's like, you know, all your big funds and your rich friends who are calling their advisors who, you know, 5 to 10 mil net worth.
然后你会说，嘿，你知道，配置5%的比特币。
And you're like, hey, like, you know, 5% allocation of Bitcoin.
告诉我一声，直接让我进场就行。
Let me know, just just get me in.
对。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
然后在我看来，那就会把我们带到历史新高。
And then that takes us to an all time highs, in my opinion.
会有这种FOMO情绪，也会有激进的机构买入。
There'll be this FOMO, there'll be aggressive institutional buying.
然后我觉得那时候散户就进来了。
And then I think then we get retail.
对。
Yeah.
所以这就是我现在的思路，谁会以更高的价格从我们手里买走我的仓位。
So that's kind of like my path right now of like, who's gonna buy my positions higher from us.
对。
Yeah.
而且显然，我还没真正考虑卖出。
And obviously, I'm not really like thinking about selling quite yet.
对。
Yeah.
但我在想的是下一批边际买家是谁。
But that's what I'm thinking about as next marginal buyers.
你同意这个看法吗？
Do you agree with that?
对。
Yeah.
我大体上同意。
I'd say I broadly agree.
我觉得这波最初的上涨，对，就是逼空，很多人被套牢了。
I feel like this initial move was, yeah, short squeeze, people getting smoked.
然后我觉得是那些从AI交易里出来的热钱动量交易者，比如那些瓶颈相关的，对。
And then I think it was the the hot money momentum traders coming out of the AI trades, like all the bottleneck stuff, the Yep.
就是那些存储相关的。
The memory stuff.
他们都在想，哎呀，糟糕。
Like, they all are like, oh, crap.
就像，你知道，买了存储股的高点，现在我要去加密货币里追热钱。
Like, kinda, you know, bought the highs of the memory stocks, now I'm gonna go buy on the on the hot money in in in crypto.
所以你就看到了那波延续，然后到了比特币刚好碰到阻力位。
So then you saw that continuation, and then it got into, like, Bitcoin just hitting resist.
我觉得那波走势，从大概七万出头到八万二左右。
Like, that was that was the move I feel like from, I don't know, low seventies to to 82 or whatever.
是不是那些从AI交易里撤出来的钱在推动它？
Was that money coming back from the AI trades and and pushing it?
现在我们只是在消化这些。
And now we're just sort of digesting that.
对，我觉得现在是一个比较平静的时期，这也和我们之前聊到的宏观因素以及战争局势有关。
And, yeah, I think it's a little bit of a lull period that also aligns with with macro and and the whole war thing that we talked about.
然后，我完全同意。
And then, yeah, I fully agree.
我觉得那些更大的长期资金会慢慢流入。
I think it's the bigger long term money is just going to slowly move in.
而这时候你就需要判断他们在关注什么，以及他们的投资周期是多久。
And I think that's where you need to make decisions of what are they looking at and what are the time horizons that they're playing for.
然后我觉得有点让人困惑的是，我认为看加密货币代币和看公开市场上的股票一样重要。
And then I think what gets a bit confusing there is that I think it's important to look at crypto tokens as much as equities on the public exchanges.
我觉得这些都会融合在一起，对吧？
Like, I think it's all going to come together, right?
不会再像以前那样，加密货币股票、加密货币代币、治理代币这些是分开的。
Like there's not going to be this like crypto equities and then crypto tokens and then governance tokens or whatever.
我觉得形式正在统一，就像是一种建立在更好基础设施上的股权证券。
I think the form factor is all coming together, which is just like a It's an equity security that is built on better infrastructure.
现在你的工作就是看这些公司赚多少钱，以及你认为相对于其收入的倍数，这个位置是否合适，还有这些公司的管理团队计划如何使用他们产生的利润。
And it's your job now to look at how much money those companies are making and whether you think it's at a good spot relative to that multiple on its revenue and how the management team associated with those companies is planning to use those profits that they're generating.
以及你是否同意这些做法，是否同意这些利润应该全部用于回购、再投资到运营中、作为股息发放，或者其他什么方式。
And whether you agree with that or not, whether you agree that it should all go to buybacks or go to reinvestment into the operations or as a dividend or what have you.
所以我觉得这些也是那些大型机构会考虑的事情。
So I think like those are the things that also those big institutions are gonna be thinking about.
然后，在价值存储方面也是一样的。
And then same thing on the store value thing.
我觉得显然有一部分资金，你就是直接投到前两三个资产之类的，你知道，你——
I think obviously there's a certain cohort of that money that is, you just go to the top two or three assets or whatever, you know, you-
然后直接出价？
And just bid?
对，比特币、以太坊。
Yeah, Bitcoin, ETH
对价格敏感，就是慢慢积累。
Price or sensitive, just kind of like accumulate.
对。
Yeah.
但也有一些更细致的考量，比如那些关注比特币和Zcash的量子计算路线图的人。
But then there's also the more nuanced stakes of those that are looking at stuff like, what's the roadmap for quantum for Bitcoin versus Zcash?
他们在这方面有多认真？
And like, how serious are they there?
因为如果我持有这个，我得去投资委员会说，看，如果到了Q日，这东西可能会归零。
Because if I'm holding this, and I have to go to an investment committee and say, look, this thing can go to zero if we get to the Q day.
对。
Yeah.
你不想那样吧？
You don't wanna be there?
而核心开发者却说那不存在。
And the core devs are just saying it doesn't exist.
没关系。
It doesn't matter.
对，没关系。
Yeah, doesn't matter.
风险太大，不值得在意。
It's too risk to care.
对。
Yeah.
你觉得风险委员会会同意这种说法吗？
You think a risk committee is gonna agree with that?
不会，他们会说，给我看路线图。
No, they're gonna be like, show me a roadmap.
比如，计划是什么？
Like, what's the plan?
我特别喜欢这里关于Zcash的看涨论点。
I love the Zcash bull thesis right here.
我很喜欢。
I love it.
对。
Yeah.
我的意思是，我，我，我就是，你知道，我刚加入，开始理解这一切。
I mean, I I I just, you know, I just got on on board and started to understand it all.
不。
No.
但这很费神。
But it's it's mind.
这让人全神贯注。
It's it's all consuming.
对。
Yeah.
最后一件事，你持有SpaceX的股份吗？
Last thing, do you own any SpaceX?
你是看好SpaceX的吗？
Are you a SpaceX bull?
是的，我确实持有。
Yeah, I do actually.
怎么说呢，我非常看好人工智能，什么都想试试。
I'm like, I don't know, I'm a huge AI believer in bull and I try everything.
我试了Grok Bot，真的被震撼到了。
And I was just I tried Grok Bot and I was absolutely blown away.
太不可思议了。
It's incredible.
所以，收购Cursor，再加上他们从X平台获取的海量数据，数据现在就是人工智能的护城河。
So so that so that cursor purchase, you know, plus all this incredible data that they have from x, that is a huge like, data is the moat in in AI now.
对吧？
Right?
你也有这个优势。
You have that.
你有这个Cursor团队，然后还有像Grok Bot这样的产品推出。
You have this cursor team, and then you have these products like Grok bot come out.
而且，兄弟，我真的就是，因为被Grok Bot震撼到了，所以直接买了。
And dude, I literally just, like, bought because I was so blown away by Grok Bot.
我当时就想，我根本不在乎锁定期。
Like, I was like, I don't care about the lockups.
所以那大概是几周前的事了。
So that was, like, couple weeks ago then.
对。
Yeah.
那时候股价大概在一百三左右吧。
It was at, like, one thirty or something.
你当时
You had
入场时机很好。
a great entry.
对。
Yeah.
确实很棒。
Was great.
我当时想，虽然有限售期，但大家都知道这事儿。
I was like, look, there's lockups, but everybody knows about them.
我也不太确定。
I don't know.
就是说，我们
Like, we
那只是丹持有的
That's just Dan held
它太好了。
in It's too good.
比特币老玩家。
OG Bitcoin guy.
对。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
他现在一半身家都在SpaceX。
He's now half port in SpaceX.
对。
Yeah.
我没那么大。
I'm not that big.
对。
Yeah.
你能按一下数字二吗？
Could you press number two?
一半身家在SpaceX。
Half port is SpaceX.
对。
Yeah.
一半投了比特币。
Half port Bitcoin.
他从2012年到2021年一直持有比特币。
He held Bitcoin from 2012 to 2021.
对。
Yeah.
显然，他卖掉了一些他持有的股权和一些币。
Sold some of his cracking equity and some of his coins apparently.
现在他买了SpaceX的股权，五年前在估值1000亿的时候买的，现在翻了一倍。
And is now he bought SpaceX equity at a 100 bill prelaunch five years ago and is now half.
他告诉我，二十年后市值会达到100万亿美元。
He's he he he told me a $100,000,000,000,000 market cap in twenty years.
全球最大的公司。
Biggest company in the world.
我是说，这有可能，兄弟。
I mean, it's plausible, man.
我也不确定。
I don't know.
就像，我是说，我是说，因为……
Like I mean, I mean For
以我投入的规模来看，这产品简直太疯狂了，我能看出他们在做什么。
the size that I have in it, it was just like, wow, this product is insane, and I can see what they're doing.
而且他们真的在追赶前沿模型。
And they're really catching up to the frontier models.
值得一试。
Worth a shot.
对我来说就是这样。
And that was it for me.
也许如果我开始做更多研究，我会投入更多。
Maybe if I start doing more research, I'll put more into it.
但就目前来说，就是觉得，哇，这东西真不错。
But for now, it's just like, Man, this thing's really good.
太惊艳了。
Blown away.
太漂亮了。
Beautiful.
对。
Yeah.
一直都很愉快。
Always a pleasure.
一直都很愉快。
Always a pleasure.
我是说，我们
Mean, we're
在这里真是太敢说了，各位。
just so bold up here, guys.
就是，你看这个市场。
Just, I mean, look at the market.
我的意思是，我们快要……如果ETH和比特币在这里出现大的突破，进入下一个阶段，那我们就要进入狂热状态了。
I mean, we're about to If we get a big breakout here on ETH and Bitcoin the next kind of level, I mean, we're going to be in euphoria.
所以，是的。
So Yeah.
然后，对。
And Yeah.
各位，保持做多，保持坚强。
I mean, guys, stay long, stay strong.
感谢Jauvin。
Thanks for Jauvin.
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