Matt Hougan 和 Sal Ternullo：NEAR 是加密市场中定位最佳的资产之一

如果你看看过去三十天的情况，排名前二十的加密资产中，表现最好和最差的之间大约有130%的差距。

If you look at something like the last thirty days, there's about a 130% dispersion between the best and worst performing of the top 20 crypto assets.

我是罗比，欢迎收看《Roll Up》。

My name is Robbie, and you're watching the Roll Up.

今天，我想请大家订阅、评论、点赞，并支持我们的频道。

And today, I'm asking you to please subscribe, comment, like, and support our channel.

我们采访数字资产、数字金融和代币化领域中最优秀、最聪明的一些人。

We interview some of the best and brightest minds in digital assets, digital finance, and tokenization.

我们做这些是为了你们。

We are doing this for you.

所以请放松坐好，享受节目，非常感谢大家的支持。

So please sit back, relax, enjoy the show, and thank you so much for all your support.

大家好，最近怎么样？

What's up, guys?

欢迎回到《Roll Up》。

Welcome back to the Roll Up.

我是Robbie，今天给大家准备了一场大秀。

I'm Robbie, and we've got a big show for you guys here today.

来自Bitwise和Sovereign的Sal和Matt Hougan。

Sal and Matt Hougan from Bitwise and Sovereign.

恭喜这两位，他们刚刚在纽约证券交易所推出了NEAR ETF（NRR），接下来我们会听听相关情况。

Congratulations to these guys because they just launched the NRR on New York Stock Exchange, the latest NEAR ETF, and we're going hear about it.

Sal一直在运营Sovereign，主要负责公司财务方面的事务，是NEAR生态系统中极具影响力的合作伙伴。

Sal has been running Sovereign for a while on the treasury company side of things, big influential partner in the near ecosystem.

Bitwise现在也加入了，他们在纽约证券交易所的ARCA推出了近端ETF NRR。

And Bitwise is now getting in with their near ETF NRR on the New York Stock Exchange, ARCA.

所以这是第一个U.

And so this is the first U.

S.

S.

现货近端ETP，75个基点的管理费，内部质押目标约为5%的收益，通过NAV累积给股东。

Spot near ETP 75 basis point management fee in house staking targeting roughly 5% rewards that accrue to shareholders through NAV.

那我们这就开始聊吧。

So we're going to get into it.

NEAR生态里现在事情可多了。

Tons happening in the NEAR ecosystem.

你们肯定也听我们聊过NEAR。

Obviously, you guys have heard us talking about NEAR.

它最近涨得很猛，这两位也是跟我们一路同行的人。

It's on a big, big run, and these guys are at are on the train with us.

Matt、Sal，欢迎来到节目。

Matt, Sal, welcome to the show.

再次见到你们真的很高兴。

It's a pleasure to have you guys again.

对于NEAR最近这一波采用热潮，你们感觉怎么样？

How are you guys feeling with the most recent wave of adoption here on on NEAR?

很高兴再次见到你们。

Good to see you guys again.

我也是。

Likewise.

很高兴来到这里。

It's great to be here.

萨尔，你先来吧。

Why don't you take it away, Sal?

我随后补充。

I'll follow-up.

说实话，这一路走来挺不错的。

I mean, it's been it's been a good ride.

我们一直认为，根据我们看到的用户活跃度和意图交易收入的增长，这个资产的价值被严重低估了。

We have had the view and have talked about this a while that we felt the asset was fundamentally mispriced based on the traction that we were seeing and revenue growth on intents.

我们在第一季度发布了一篇报告，主要是从基本面角度分析投资价值，这和Bitwise大约半年前发布的更偏向目标市场分析的方法形成了互补。

We put out a piece, I think, in q one that really kind of covered the bottom up case for investment, which was complementary to a more target market driven approach that Bitwise had released maybe six months prior.

我觉得过去这三十到四十五天里，我们看到的就是一次早就该来的重新定价，现在终于兑现了。

And I think what we saw over the past, you know, thirty days, forty five days was really just this repricing event that was always on the horizon and really just finally caught up.

所以显然对整个生态系统来说是个好消息。

So obviously good news for the whole ecosystem.

坦白说，这只是开始。

Candidly, the beginning.

我觉得下一章完全是关于AI堆栈和围绕它的价值积累，但看到过去三十、四十五天的情况，真的很令人兴奋。

I think the next chapter is all about the AI stack and value accrual around that, but very exciting to see over the past, you know, thirty, forty five days.

我也插一句，完全同意这个观点。

And I just toss in and completely agree with that.

我觉得很长一段时间，我们都把NEAR看作是AI领域的一个登月计划，而他们很难为此定价。

I think for a long time, were thinking about NEAR as this moonshot on the AI side, and they were having difficulty pricing that.

我认为我们现在看到的现实是，意图经济的不可否认的增长使得从那个角度来看，这是一个容易的投资。

I think the reality of what we're seeing now is the the undeniable growth of the economics of intent have made it, like, an easy investment from that perspective.

然后你几乎可以把长期愿景当作一个免费的看涨期权，随波逐流。

And then you get the long term vision almost as a a call option that comes along free for the ride.

所以市场正在重新定价这种戏剧性的增长和强烈的产品市场契合度，真正的收入指标，而且他们仍然对之前我们谈到的那个长期愿景感到兴奋。

So the market is repricing this dramatic growth and intense, this obvious product market fit, the real revenue meta, and they're still also excited about that long term vision that we were talking about beforehand.

所以我觉得把这两点结合起来，你就能得到加密货币里表现最好的资产之一。

So I think you pair those together, and you get one of the best performing assets in crypto.

从我们的角度看，这很可能还会继续下去。

And from our view, that's that's probably well positioned to continue.

非常非常酷。

Very, very cool.

我们也在关注这个。

We've been tracking this as well.

NEAR在意图和AI方面都是重要的合作伙伴，感觉这些都在开始融合，我们看到这些因素汇聚在一起，导致NEAR的估值在快速调整。

NEAR, big partner on the generally, I mean, the intents side, AI side, it feels like all of these are starting to converge, and we're seeing this confluence of factors that is leading NEAR to aggressively reprice.

你知道，Sal，你在这个行业里已经有一段时间了。

Know, Sal, you've been in the game for a while.

最近Bitwise NRR在纽约证券交易所ARCA的公告。

This most recent announcement from Bitwise NRR, on the New York Stock Exchange, ARCA.

你知道，Matt，我觉得你们一直在关注这个，并且战略性地寻找进入这个生态系统的方式。

You know, Matt, I take it you guys have been kind of eyeing this and strategically looking for how to get into this ecosystem.

为什么是现在？

Why now?

为什么你们现在推出NRR，能跟我们多讲讲这个产品吗？

Why did you go ahead and launch NRR now and ultimately tell us a little bit more about the product?

你知道，我们在选择发行ETP的加密资产时是非常挑剔的。

You know, we're pretty selective in terms of the crypto assets that we launch ETPs on.

所以这个资产需要有强大的基本面逻辑，有强大的社区支持，并且我们认为它有持久的生命力。

So it needs to be an asset that has a strong fundamental thesis, that has a strong community behind it, and we think that has staying power.

把一个产品推向市场需要时间、资源和精力，如果我们不相信这个资产在长期内有它的位置，并且有社区推动它前进，我们是不会去做的。

It takes time, resources and effort to bring a product to market, and so we're not going to do it if we're not convinced that the asset has a long term place in the world and a community that will drive it forward.

我们关注NEAR已经有一段时间了。

We've been eyeing NEAR for a while.

实际上，我们在欧洲已经有一个ETP了，我们一直在美国这边努力把它推向市场，因为我们认为它是任何传统金融投资者在投资加密和区块链时都应该拥有的投资组合的一部分。

In fact, we've had a European ETP for a while, and we've been working here in The US to bring it to market because we think it's part of the portfolio that any traditional financial investor investing in crypto and blockchain should want to have.

至于具体的时间点，我倒是希望我们能早三个星期推出，这样对我们的投资者更有利。

The precise timing, I wish we had done it like three weeks earlier for the benefit of our investors.

不可能做到完美，但当时正好赶上了市场时机，再加上一些重要的法律和监管方面的幕后工作，才让它在所有平台上都获得了全面批准和绿灯。

You can't be perfect, but it was an alignment of sort of the moment in the market and then some important under the hood legal and regulatory work to get it fully approved and fully greenlit on all the platforms.

虽然我们可能晚了几周，但我觉得我们也早了好几年。

And while we maybe were a few weeks late, I think we're also many years early.

所以我觉得它正好符合那个窗口期。

So I think it it fits that fits that window.

绝...

Abs...

绝对。

Absolutely.

而且我觉得，如果我们看看是什么推动了这种激进的重新定价，那就是NEAR Intents底层的收入模式，它把一些更高质量的链上业务带到了台面上。

And I think if we're we're sort of looking at maybe what is driving, you know, this aggressive repricing is, you know, the revenue meta underneath of NEAR Intents is is, you know, bringing some of the more higher quality on chain businesses to the surface.

但还有，你知道的，A...

But then there's there's also, you know, the A.

I。

I.

这一方面。

Side of this.

代理经济正在升温。

The agentic economy is heating up.

Facebook 推出了 Muse，OpenAI 推出了 Dots，Grok 机器人也在加速发展。

Facebook launched Muse, OpenAI launched Dots, Grok bot is accelerating.

所以感觉这些大语言模型现在正在跨越代理的鸿沟。

And so it really feels like these LLMs are now crossing the agentic chasm.

而那就是前沿所在。

And that's where the frontier is.

而且我也不得不注意到时机，你知道，NEAR 真正加速上涨的那十到十五天，恰好就是前沿模型公司谈论放缓 AI 发展、控制前沿速度的那段时间。

And I can't help but also notice the timing that, you know, the the really like the ten to fifteen days that NEAR really accelerated in terms of price happened to be exactly the same time frame as the frontier model companies talking about pacing the frontier and slowing down AI.

这看起来不可能是巧合。

That seems like it can't be a coincidence.

也许你们可以谈谈，在链下，你们如何看待当前 AI 领域在公开市场和私募市场的情况，以及前沿模型公司，还有 NEAR 可能是如何应对这一点的？

Maybe you guys can just talk about how you view the current AI complex in the public and private markets off chain with the frontier model companies and how near might be a response to that?

好，那我先来谈谈我的看法，然后Matt可以接着补充。

Yeah, maybe I can take take the first stab at that and then Matt can follow on.

我的意思是，NEAR AI的核心论点一直是提供隐私、可验证性和保密性这些属性，这些正是从去年九月开始数字资产领域叙事的关键，并将这些原则融入基础设施层，以支持开放模型。

I mean, the thesis around near AI has been really delivering the same attributes of privacy and verifiability, confidentiality that are kind of core to the most recent narrative arc starting last September on on the digital asset side and imbuing those principles inside of the infrastructure layer to support open models.

所以我觉得Muse就是一个很好的例子。

And so I think Muse was a great example of this.

但当你真正深入探究技术层面的底层原理时，NEAR的私有推理产品是目前市场上唯一一个能让第三方客户端真正验证没有操作者能够看到或获取与开放模型交互相关的提示或输出的任何遥测数据的解决方案。

But when you actually peel back the onion and look at the under the underpinnings from a technology point of view, NEAR's private inference product is the only solution in the market today where a third party client can actually verify that no operator can see or have any telemetry data on the prompts or the outputs associated with the interactions with open models.

这是目前Venice背后最强的隐私保障。

It's the strongest privacy guarantee sitting behind Venice today.

一旦我们看到它在OpenRouter上线，按token计算的消耗量就飙升了。

And once we saw this go live on open router, the consumption on a token basis just went through the roof.

所以现在有一些相关的指标和数据正在陆续公布。

And so there's some metrics and data that's coming out on the side.

但我认为你开始看到早期阶段清晰的产品市场契合，而且时机正好。

But I think you're starting to see the early innings of clear product market fit at the right moment in time.

这和前沿实验室的做法形成了鲜明对比，也涉及我们自第一季度末到第二季度一直关注的AI主权问题。

And that is very much in contrast to kind of the Frontier Labs approach here and some of the concerns that we've seen around AI sovereignty, you know, starting back in the end of Q1 and continuing through Q2.

所以，我们非常兴奋。

So, you know, we're super excited.

我觉得它会走和intents类似的路线：先证明产品市场契合度，然后扩大规模，最终推动代币价值增长。

I think it's going to follow a similar track to intents, prove product market fit, scale, and then ultimately drive value accrual to the token.

对，我完全同意。

Yeah, I think that's absolutely right.

你知道，前沿实验室为我们做了两件事。

You know, the Frontier Labs have been doing two things for us.

他们一直在展示AI对我们未来的重要性。

They've been demonstrating how important AI is to our future.

我认为Muse就是一个很好的例子，同时他们却要求我们把越来越多的信息交给他们，而他们却在公众场合把自己的声誉和信任烧得一干二净。

I think Muse is a good example to that, while asking us to turn over more and more of our information to them at the same time that they've been sort of lighting their reputation and trust on fire in the public venue.

而NEAR正好适合这个时刻，正如Sal所说的那样。

And NEAR is perfectly fit for that moment exactly for what Sal said.

我觉得最让人兴奋的是，真正理解这一点的人其实非常非常少。

I think the exciting thing about it is is that the quantum of people who understand that is really, really small.

我之前说我们晚了几个星期，但可能早了好几年，其中一个原因就是，那些加密货币原生、专注AI的社区才刚刚意识到NEAR正好填补了世界需要的这个拼图。

One of one of the reasons I said we're a few weeks late, but maybe a few years early is the few weeks late is the the sort of crypto native AI focused community recognizing that NEAR fits into this puzzle piece that the world needs.

但绝大多数人还在慢慢走向这个认知。

But the vast majority of people are just starting to get to that position.

这就是“早了好几年”的那部分。

That's the few years early piece.

所以我这么兴奋，一部分原因就是既有产品市场契合，也有叙事市场契合。

So a part of the reason I'm so excited is there's product market fit, and there's also narrative market fit.

我觉得当这两者结合起来，就能带来非常显著的、超常规的行情。

And I think when you combine those two, you can get really significant outsized move.

我们最近在其他几个加密资产上也看到了类似的情况，它们同时实现了产品市场契合和叙事市场契合，结果都走出了很大的行情。

We've seen that in a few other crypto assets recently that have sort of met product market fit with narrative market fit and have had very large positions.

我觉得NEAR在这方面也很有优势。

I think NEAR is well positioned for that as well.

马特，当你向投资者社区描述这个的时候，涉及的方面挺多的。

And, Matt, when you're describing this to the investor community, there's sort of a lot of moving parts.

而且我觉得，你知道，产品市场契合度和叙事市场契合度是不是像你说的那样在汇聚。

And I and I think that, you know, is the product market fit and narrative market fit converging like you're describing.

但很长一段时间以来，感觉这有点像在追逐叙事，而且这些叙事是脱节的。

But for a long time, it's also felt like, you know, this is sort of like chasing narratives and these are sort of disjointed.

现在看NEAR，显然我们有AI这块。

And if you look at NEAR now, obviously we've got the AI side of things.

萨尔也说了，随着人们发现隐私元素，代币使用量飙升。

And Sal described how, you know, token usage is going through the roof as people discover the privacy element to this.

还有NEAR Intents这块在产生收入。

You've got the near intense side that's generating revenue.

还有永续合约，还有链抽象、链签名，很多很多部分。

You've also got perps and you've got, you know, a lot of chain abstraction and chain signatures and a lot of a lot of pieces here.

你如何向投资者经济或投资者社区传达这些？

How how do you communicate this to the investor economy or the the investor community?

那哪些部分是他们真正开始理解并看到愿景的地方？

And and what are the parts where they're really picking up and seeing the vision?

我喜欢做的事情，确实很难，但答案的一部分，当然很难。

What I what I love to do, it's hard, is part of the answer, but for sure it's hard.

而Sal可能比任何人都做得好。

And Sal probably does it better than anyone.

但我在跟传统投资者、财务顾问谈论NEAR时，发现有效的方法是先让他们看到现有的产品市场契合度，然后再谈未来的可能性。

But what I found effective in talking to traditional investors, financial advisers about NEAR, is selling them on this sort of existing product market fit and then optionality.

所以，这也是为什么intents如此重要的原因之一，因为你可以展示intents的收入图表或者TVL图表，显示那里的使用量，这无可否认地解决了市场中的一个重要需求，那就是我们有不同的链，它们很难交互，而它让这一切变得非常简单。

So again, that's part of the reason why intents is so important, because you can put up a revenue chart of intents or a TVL chart of the amount of use there, and it's undeniable that it's solving this important need in the market, which is we have these different chains, they're hard to interact with, it makes it very simple.

你可以仅仅基于这一点来投资NEAR，并证明其估值的合理性。

You can invest in NEAR exclusively on that basis and justify the valuation.

然后在此基础上，可以描绘一个从AI角度出发的长期愿景。

And then on top of it, can paint part of this long term picture of where it's going from an AI perspective.

说实话，要在两分钟的对话里做到这一点非常困难。

If I'm being perfectly frank, it's very hard to do that in a two minute conversation.

你通常先从一些智力上的证明点开始。

You often start with sort of intellectual proof points.

你会谈到Ilia的背景。

You talk about Ilia's background.

你会谈到他们在隐私方面的角色。

You talk about their role in privacy.

你会给出一个宏观的视角。

You give sort of a 30,000 foot view.

但这已经足够了，因为人们会把它看作是我在购买这个资产，基于它当前的产品市场契合度和在意图及跨链能力上的收入，然后我还能免费获得由AI天才界的这位老前辈驱动的长期愿景。

But that's enough because people sort of view it as I'm getting this asset for its current product market fit and revenue on intents and cross chain capabilities, And then I get this long term vision driven by this sort of OG in the AI genius world for free on top of that.

这使得它变得非常有吸引力。

And that makes it an extraordinarily attractive.

如果你能获得一个具有巨大潜力的稳健投资，那对传统投资者来说就是完美的组合。

If you can get a solid investment with moonshot potential, that's sort of a perfect mix for traditional investors.

这就是我们一直采取的方法，我认为这种方法已经引起了人们的共鸣。

So that's the approach we've been taking, and it's one that I think has been resonating with people.

萨尔，也许你可以帮忙把这些内容串联起来。

And, Sal, maybe you can just help tie some of these pieces together.

我们已经让伊利亚谈过他的整体愿景，你知道，他从12岁起就看到了这个愿景，对吧？

We've had Ilya on kind of describing the overall vision that, you know, he saw since he was 12 years old, right?

那就是我们会有很多机器人，它们需要互相交流。

That we would have lots of bots and they would, you know, have to communicate with one another.

也许你可以帮忙梳理一下，高强度的永续合约和人工智能方面最终如何结合起来。

Maybe you can help piece together how intense perps and the A.

对。

I.

最终如何创造一个健康繁荣的代理经济。

Side of things ultimately creates, you know, a healthy and thriving agentic economy.

我觉得这一切都在相互配合，正好补充了马特刚才说的。

I mean, I think all of this is coming together to kind of complement what Matt was saying.

从某种程度上说，NEAR最简单的宣传方式就是让大家去用near.com。

In some ways, the easiest pitch for NEAR has been go use near.com.

这是一个面向消费者的应用，集成了所有这些功能。

This is a consumer facing application that embodies all of these features.

很快，我们将利用私有推理和Ironclaw的一些组件，通过一个超级简洁的用户界面来展示智能体交互是什么样的。

And very soon we'll be leveraging private inference and some of the components of Ironclaw to demonstrate what agentic interactions look like through a super, super clean UX.

Matt Hougan在产品设计方面做得非常出色。

Matt Hougan has done an awesome job on the product design side.

我觉得那里的用户体验简直太棒了。

I think the UX there is just fantastic.

所以如果你在向投资者推销的过程中遇到这种摩擦点，要么直接给他们看这个应用，一起体验一下，要么就去用这个应用。

And so if you ever hit this friction point in the investor kind of pitch process, like either show them the app live and let's experience it together or go use the app.

而且我认为，一旦你通过这种体验看到智能体交互的良好用户体验，它就会改变人们对这个领域的看法。

And I think once you start to see a good UX around agentic interactions through that experience, it will change how people really look at this.

但最终，让我兴奋的不仅仅是用户体验和向人们展示。

But ultimately, from what gets me excited around it is not just kind of the UX and showing people.

而是我们很快就会有多个产品垂直领域，围绕单一代币经济实现产品市场契合，并积极扩展。

It's the fact that we're soon to have multiple product verticals with product market fit scaling aggressively designed around a single token economy.

所以我觉得，一旦我们启动费用开关，达到一个合理的规模，然后在AI这边也启动费用开关，我们可能就会看到下一轮重新定价的事件。

And so I think once we hit the fee switch, hit a scale that makes sense and hit the fee switch on the AI side of this, we probably see the next repricing event in there.

哇。

Wow.

好的。

Okay.

嗯，显然，我们都非常非常期待看到那一切发生。

Well, obviously, we're all very, very excited to see that happen.

我是说，Matt，你知道，当你推出这个的时候，就像你说的，它是在那波150%的涨幅之后。

I mean, Matt, you know, when you launched this, like you said, it was kind of on the heels of this, you know, 150% move.

那这让向投资者推销变得更容易还是更难？

Does that make it easier or harder to sell to investors?

他们是不是像……

Are they like...

他们是不是有FOMO，想赶紧进场，还是说，嘿。

Do they have FOMO and they wanna get in, or is it like, hey.

我们已经错过了机会。

We already missed the boat.

大多数情况下，这反而更容易，因为你可以拉长到长期图表，向他们展示我们其实还处于早期阶段。

Mostly, it makes it easier because you can pan out to a long term chart and show them that we're very early in this.

你可以用相对市值估值指标来看。

You can do relative market valuation metrics.

人们总说喜欢逢低买入，但实际上没人这么做。

People love to say that they love to buy the dip, but no one actually does.

他们其实更愿意追涨。

They actually prefer to chase the rip.

所以，我真希望我能告诉你，在6月30日那个最绝望的低谷买入会更好，但那只是……

So I wish I could tell you that, like, you know, it would have been better at June 30 at the bottom depths of despair, but that's just...

实际上并不是这样。

It's just practically not true.

如果我们的理念是让传统投资者往下看市值排名，寻找那些最有潜力冲进前五、市值能达到数百亿甚至数千亿美元的项目，那么很难把一个一直在下跌的项目拿出来说就是它。

If the if the sort of concept we're making is traditional investors looking down the market cap stack to find the most interesting projects that could leap into the top five and leap into market caps that are tens or hundreds of billions of dollars, it's hard to put it something that's just been going down and say that's it.

实际上，它涨了反而更容易，虽然它已经涨了，你知道，百分之百多。

It's actually easier that it's gone up even though it's gone up, you know, a 100 whatever percent.

就是……

It's...

如果我和Sal对NEAR的走势判断正确的话，那这还只是首付，我觉得投资者能理解这一点。

If if Sal and I are right about where NEAR is going, that's very much just a down payment, and I think that resonates with investors.

所以涨了一点也没关系。

So it's okay that it's gone up a little.

而且，你知道，Matt，从更宏观的角度来看，不只是这个具体案例。

And, you know, Matt, just kind of zooming out from, you know, this particular case.

但你觉得我们现在处于市场的哪个阶段？

But where do you think we are in the market right now?

我们最近看到了一些剧烈的重新定价，尤其是在NEAR上，但整体市场也普遍如此。

We've kind of had some aggressive repricing both in near most most prominently, but also across the board more generally.

而且感觉上，你知道，我们在很多方面其实还处于早期阶段。

And it kind of feels like, you know, we're still early in a lot of ways.

你觉得接下来什么会推动下一轮大幅重新定价？

What do you think is going to drive the next aggressive repricing?

你觉得现在势头是不是在我们这边？

Do you think it's now momentum is on our side?

熊市已经结束了。

Bear market is over.

牛市已经开始了。

Bull market has started.

你觉得目前整个市场的大环境怎么样？

Where do you think we are generally in the current market landscape?

我觉得……

I think...

你看。

Look.

我确实认为我们在六月份已经触底了，而且我们现在正处于一个新的牛市周期中。

I do think we bottomed in June, and I think we're in a new bull market cycle.

我觉得现在有很多积极的因素汇聚在一起，推动这个趋势向前发展。

I think we have a confluence of very positive events that are lining up to push that forward.

监管环境有了显著改善。

We have dramatically improved regulation.

我们看到美国证券交易委员会和商品期货交易委员会在推动机构投资。

We're seeing that from the SEC and the CFTC that's driving institutional investment.

加密货币历史上第一次出现了真实的收入。

We have revenue for the first time in crypto's history that's showing real.

代币化正在把现实世界的资产带到链上。

We have tokenization bringing real world assets on chain.

还有人工智能方面的发展。

We have what's going on on the AI side.

所有这些因素结合在一起，推动整个行业向前发展。

We have all that coming together to sort of push the industry forward.

所以我认为我们正处于一个长期的牛市周期中。

So I do think we're in a long term bull market cycle.

说到未来几个月我预期什么会推动我们前进，加密货币有一种所谓的兴趣回声波，第一波兴趣从来不是机构资本。

In terms of, you know, what I expect to drive us forward over the next handful of months, crypto has this sort of echo wave of interest, which is the first interest is never institutional capital.

总是散户资本先反应。

It's always sort of retail capital responding.

机构资本随后跟进，因为他们行动较慢。

Institutional capital follows on because they move slower.

我非常确信，第四季度在ETF方面会有大量资金流入，因为传统投资者开始配置到这个领域。

I feel very confident that we're gonna have significant inflows on the ETF side across the spectrum in Q4 as traditional investors start to allocate into this space.

他们中很多人年初就想这么做，但市场一直跌个不停。

A lot of them wanted to earlier in the year, but the market was relentlessly down.

现在他们得到了明确的信号。

Now they've gotten the all clear.

所以我认为实际上就是那样。

And so I think it's actually that.

大型券商旗下的财富顾问们进场，才会带来下一波资本上涨的动力。

It's wealth advisors at big wirehouses coming in that are gonna give the next push of capital upwards.

而且，根据我们的交流，他们在这方面准备得非常好。

And, you know, based on our conversations, they're extraordinarily well positioned to do that.

我……

I...

最近在节目里我说过，现在的市场感觉比以前理性一些了。之前有一段时间，好消息出来市场不涨，坏消息出来也不跌。

On the show recently, I've said that the market feels a little bit more rational these days where, you know, for a while it was like, hey, we were getting a lot of good news and the market wasn't reacting up and then we were getting a lot of bad news and it wasn't reacting down.

就是非常冷淡。

It was just very apathetic.

现在感觉你的项目又能有所作为了。

Now it feels like you can make a difference in your project again.

如果你有好消息，就能对行业产生影响。

You can make a difference to the industry if you have a positive announcement.

你知道，你会看到上涨，反过来，也会看到下跌。

You know, you will see an uptick and vice versa, you know, to the downside.

所以现在感觉这些事情开始变得重要多了。

And so now it feels like some of these things are starting to matter a lot more.

这真是个非常重要的观点。

It's such a huge point.

你看看过去三十天，排名前二十的加密资产中，表现最好的和最差的之间差距大约有130%。

If you look at something like the last thirty days, there's about a 130% dispersion between the best and worst performing of the top 20 crypto assets.

如果你相信市场是由基本面驱动的，那这真是件好事。

That is a beautiful thing if you believe in a fundamentally driven market.

那些排在前面的资产，我可以一个一个地解释它们为什么能排在那里。

The assets that are winning at the top of that list, I can go by piece by piece and say why they're up there.

并不是某个随机资产无缘无故涨了，我都解释不了。

It's not some random asset that pumped for no reason that I can't explain.

也不是所有资产都在涨。

It's not all assets going up.

这些结果非常具体，是由个别因素驱动的，这比那种由动量驱动的周期性市场健康得多。

It's very specific, idiosyncratic driven results, and that is much healthier than a momentum driven cyclical market.

我确实认为我们现在就处于这样的市场。

I do think that's the market we're in.

我说过我们处于牛市，但我觉得这会是一个分化的牛市，有赢家也有输家，一些僵尸链会掉队，我们再也不会听到它们的声音。

I said we're in a bull market, but I think it's going to be a differentiated bull market where there are winners and losers, where some zombie chains sort of fall out of the pack and we never hear from them again.

我确实认为这就是我们当前所处的市场，正如你所说的。

I do think that's the market that we're in toward what you said.

市场在奖励这些独特的好事件，惩罚独特的坏事件，从长远来看这是非常健康的。

The market's rewarding these idiosyncratic good events, punishing idiosyncratic bad events, and that's extraordinarily healthy long term.

说实话，Robbie，欢迎你。

Candidly, Robbie, so welcome.

你在这个行业已经十年了。

You've lived this industry for ten years.

有多少次是水涨船高，对所有项目一视同仁，根本不区分基本面驱动的项目？

Like, how many times has it been the rising tide lifts all ships with zero discretion and discernment between fundamentally driven projects.

我记得在2024年，我还在祈祷我们能开始考虑基本面。

I mean, I remember back in 2024 hoping and praying that we would have some contemplation of fundamentals.

2021年也是一样。

Same thing in '21.

我会把这个想法讲给风投那边的投资者听，那时候我们看的是技术基本面，然后是用户采用的基本面，现在则是收入基本面。

I would pitch this to my investors on the venture side where we were looking at, at that point, technology fundamentals, then user adoption fundamentals, then now revenue fundamentals.

终于，在那种水涨船高、人人受益的情况持续了十年之后，我们现在真的看到了马特说的那种分化效应。

And finally, after ten years of that rising tide lifting all ships, we actually have this kind of dispersion effect that Matt's describing.

所以对于那些用基本面视角来看这件事的人来说，这就像一股清新的空气。

So for folks that look at this from that fundamental lens, it's like a breath of fresh air.

终于，市场变得更理性了。

And finally, the market is more rational.

我也很好奇，你们觉得这种情况会不会继续发生。

And I'm curious if you guys think this is going to happen, too.

但同时也感觉现在还为时过早，因为我们现在是由基本面驱动的，这导致了像你提到的马特那样的广泛分化。

But it also feels extremely early in that regard, because now we are driven by fundamentals that is leading to this wide dispersion like you mentioned, Matt.

但我忍不住想，市场最终会发展到我们再次盲目乐观的地步，最终又会回到那种水涨船高、人人受益的局面。

But I can't help but think the market will progress to the point where we get delusionally bullish again and you end up with rising tide that lifts all boats.

但因为我们还处在这个阶段，感觉还早，我们还没到那一步。

But because we're here now, it feels early and we're still yet to get there.

我觉得这很可能是对的。

I think that's probably right.

我们还没有完全扼杀那种极度看涨的势头。

We haven't killed wildly bullish momentum.

那种情况肯定还会再发生的。

They'll certainly be that that will certainly happen.

但另一个真正好的地方是，这种由个别项目驱动的现象，其实对加密货币本身也有好处，因为其他项目看到那些为代币持有者做正确事情的项目得到了回报，就会改善自己的定位。

But the other thing that's really nice about this idiosyncratic driver thing, it's actually sort of reflexively good for crypto because other projects see projects being rewarded for doing the right thing for token holders and improve their own positioning.

我觉得我们在部分领域看到的代币经济学的改进，其实是出于嫉妒。

I think some of the improvement of tokenomics that we've seen across part of the spectrum has been driven by jealousy.

他们看到了Hyperliquid上发生的事情。

They saw people saw what happened on hyperliquid.

他们就想，哦，我们得把价值还给代币持有者。

They're like, oh, we got to deliver value back to token holders.

然后突然就有越来越多的人这么做了。

And suddenly more and more people do.

只有在那些奖励这种行为（为代币持有者创造价值）的市场里，才会形成这种良性循环。

It's only in markets where that's rewarded that you get that virtuous circle.

而且我觉得，现在加密货币领域确实有这种飞轮效应在转。

And I think actually we have an element of that flywheel going in crypto right now.

萨尔，你提到了费用开关，这个开关可能会被打开，或者说一旦NEAR达到足够的规模，尤其是其AI产品达到规模后，就会被打开。

And, Sal, you mentioned the fee switch that could get turned on or will get turned on once NEAR reaches sufficient scale, especially in its AI product.

NEAR在near intents那边已经有点费用开关的意思了，这也在推动一些程序化的回购。

NEAR already has a semblance of a fee switch on the near intense side, and that's driving some programmatic buybacks.

你能不能跟我们讲讲，你特别看好NEAR在这方面会怎么发展？

Maybe you can just talk us through the way that you see this progressing on near in particular.

现在观点挺多的。

There's been a wide range of opinions.

有人说回购没什么用，对吧？

Some say that buybacks are irrelevant, right?

也有人说，这很关键，是必须做的。

Some others say that this is, you know, an imperative.

合理的中间立场是，一旦你达到产品市场契合度和足够的规模，就可以开始进行回购了。

The reasonable middle ground feels like once you reach that product market fit and sufficient scales when you start getting into buybacks.

你如何看待NEAR这边的发展，特别是从NEAR Intense开始，最终实现全面的、内在的、整体的回购策略和费用开关，这可能会推动NEAR经济走向通缩或反通胀？

How do you see this progressing on the near side, in particular, going from near intense to ultimately the wide intrinsic holistic buyback strategy and fee switch that could drive a potentially disinflationary or deflationary near economy?

是的，这个问题问得很及时。

Yeah, it's a timely, timely question.

我们回顾一下，这个旅程其实一年前就开始了。

And we look at this this this journey really started a year ago.

去年10月28日，我们将网络上的通胀率从5%减半到2.5%。

On October twenty eighth last year, we halved emissions on the network from 5% inflation to 2.5% inflation.

我们在意图侧进行了试点，以证明产品市场契合度和规模，然后在我们实现了用户粘性和一定程度的护城河（通过集成侧的市场饱和）之后，我们果断决定，现在是时候开始变现，并通过回购将价值回馈给代币持有者了。

We took the chart on the intent side to prove product market fit and scale and then consciously made the decision once we achieved a stickiness and some semblance of a moat from market saturation on the integration side to say it's now time to start monetizing and delivering value back to token holders through buybacks.

Hyperliquid，正如Matt所说，绝对是市场的灵感来源。

Hyperliquid, to Matt's point, was absolutely an inspiration for the market.

凭借如此强大的价值累积机制，其表现优异，这完全说得通。

The outperformance with such a strong value accrual mechanic made a ton of sense.

我觉得最近这九十天里，大家围绕回购是否应该推动销毁展开了很多很好的讨论。

And I think what you've seen more recently over the past maybe ninety days is some really good intellectual debate around should the buybacks drive burns?

比如，像Seth Gins最近提到的，一个A轮或B轮的初创公司，会不会选择回购并注销自己的股份呢？

Would a Series A Series B start up, you know, Seth Gins was talking about this recently, would a Series A or Series B start up be buying back retiring it?

NEAR的观点，很大程度上归功于Ilya和他的远见，就是我们确实应该为代币持有者创造价值。

You know, the NEAR point of view, and this is largely attributable to Ilya and his vision, was, you know, we should be delivering value to token holders.

我们应该回购代币，但也许直接销毁这些资产并不是最佳选择。

We should be buying back the token, but maybe it's not the right answer to burn those assets.

所以，大约一个月前，他提出了一个主权财富基金的概念，但最终我们作为生态系统暂时搁置了这个想法，部分原因是我们之前讨论过的自由裁量管理等问题。

And so he put forward a proposal maybe a month ago now to think about this idea of a sovereign wealth fund concept, which ultimately we've shelved as an ecosystem for some of the reasons that we covered discretionary management, etcetera.

但这确实支持了一个观点：如果我们能有效为协议建立资产负债表，未来就可以开始考虑新的代币经济设计。

But it really gave kind of credence to the point of view of if we can build effectively a balance sheet for the protocol, you can start to think about new tokenomics design in the future.

所以，就在上周，我们在治理论坛上发布了一项降低通胀的提案，计划在两年内将通胀率从2.5%降至1.6%，这与Solana生态最近获批的方案非常相似。

And so, you know, just last week, we published an inflation reduction proposal in the the governance forum to take the inflation rate from 2.5% to 1.6% over a two year curve, quite quite similar to what you saw recently approved in the Solana ecosystem.

所以，当我们考虑代币经济时，不仅仅是需求侧的经济。

So when we think about tokenomics, it's not just the demand economy.

还有供应端。

It's also the supply side.

实际上，这里的目标是达到一种平衡，让NEAR在相对估值上相对于美元、比特币和生态系统中的其他资产实现价值最大化。

And really, the objective here is to reach an equilibrium that maximizes the value of NEAR on a relative valuation basis to dollars, Bitcoin, and other assets in the ecosystem.

我认为，正是这种全面考虑各种因素的方法，让NEAR今天表现突出。

And I think it's part of that holistic approach towards looking at these different factors that is contributing to NEAR outperforming today.

完全同意。

Absolutely.

马特，关于目前的回购情况，你有什么要补充的吗？对于NEAR和其他代币经济体在考虑这些决策时，你有什么建议或推荐吗？

And and, Matt, anything to add on the buybacks, you know, landscape as it exists today and any any, you know, advice or recommendations as NEAR and the rest of these token economies kinda think through these decisions?

我觉得他们考虑得很周到。

I think they're doing a good job thinking it through.

我认为现在下结论说只有一种正确方法还为时过早。

I think we're we're too early in the process to assume that there's any one correct way.

萨尔说的每一点我都深有同感。

Everything that Sal said resonated with me.

我觉得关键是要有那个北极星目标，也就是让代币持有者获得价值增值，这些讨论要围绕这个长期价值增值来展开，市场会奖励它该奖励的人。

I think the important thing is to have that North Star value accrual to token holders driving those discussions, long term value accrual, and the market will reward who the market rewards.

但只要你朝着那个北极星目标前进，我觉得有很多方法可以到达那里。

But as long as you're driving towards that north star, I think there are many ways to get there.

我想到了一些东西……

I had something that come...

突然想到的，因为感觉和NEAR的可寻址市场挺相关的。

Came to mind because it feels relevant to kind of the near addressable market.

就像我提到的，我当时在Cybos，和一些银行聊了聊，他们在思考稳定币、代币化存款这类东西。

As I I mentioned, I was in Cybos, and I was kind of talking to some of these banks and the way that they're kind of thinking through stablecoins and tokenized deposits and this kind of thing.

当时我和一家大型卡处理商聊到这个，我问他们增长最快的业务板块是什么，他们说是虚拟卡。

And there was a large card processor that I was talking to about this, and, I asked them what their fastest growing business segment was, and they said virtual cards.

所以这和代理经济非常相关，但不一定对稳定币是利好。

So very relevant to the agentic economy, but not necessarily bullish stablecoins.

而且，这家公司也参与了一个联盟来推出稳定币。

And, you know, this company is also participating in a consortium to launch stablecoins.

所以感觉他们是在两边下注。

So it feels like they're kind of playing both sides of the field.

但是，你知道，他们在虚拟卡业务上确实看到了很多增长。

But, you know, they are really, really seeing a lot of growth in this virtual card business.

提到，你知道，Muse是由Facebook推出的。

Mentioned, you know, Muse got launched by Facebook.

我用过Muse，它生成了一个虚拟卡，用来订酒店入住。

I used Muse and it generated a virtual card form in a book, a hotel to go stay inside those.

那你们觉得这会怎么发展？

And so how do you guys think this is going to play out?

就是，你知道，感觉这个总可寻址市场还是待争夺的，当我们思考稳定币和代理支付的潜在影响时。

Just you know, it feels like that total addressable market is still up for grabs as we kind of think through the implications of, you know, stablecoins and agentic payments.

你们怎么看这个进展？

How do you see this progressing?

你们觉得虚拟卡有潜力，还是代币化存款有潜力？

And do you think virtual cards is a potential and or tokenized deposits?

你觉得这些会对我们目前认为正在推动大量采用的大型稳定币可触达市场构成潜在威胁吗？

Do think those are potential threats to the to the the large stablecoin addressable market that we feel like is driving a lot of the adoption here?

我个人觉得，这其实是个看利益驱动的问题。如果我是家大型卡组织，靠支付流水和各类交互来变现，那我肯定更倾向于推动虚拟卡业务的增长，并在可行的情况下，在底层利用稳定币来提升利润率。

I think I think personally, is a case of show me the incentive and I'll tell you the outcome scenario, which is obviously if I am a large card network that monetizes payment flow through point of sale and different types of interactions, I would highly prefer driving growth towards a virtual cards business and then to the extent feasible leverage stablecoins under the hood to drive higher margins.

所以，听到你提到的这类企业给出这样的观点，我并不感到意外。

So that doesn't surprise me as a comment coming from the the type of business that you were speaking to.

坦白讲，我认为从长期来看，这并不会影响我们所说的稳定币可触达市场的实现。

I candidly don't think on a longer term horizon that has any impact on the realization of the TAM that we're talking about with stablecoins.

我觉得这有点像摩擦，某种程度上跟2016到2018年那会儿大力推行许可链系统时的情况很像。当时我们想着，哎呀，没法颠覆市场结构了。

This feels to me like friction that is similar in some ways towards the aggressive push towards permission ledger systems in twenty sixteen to eighteen when we were thinking, oh, we can't disrupt market structure.

那就让后台更高效一点，解决交易后结算、对账之类的问题。

Let's make our back office more efficient and solve post trade settlement and reconciliations, etcetera.

所以我认为虚拟卡在这些系统中确实有一席之地，但我认为它最终不会改变我们的发展方向。

So I do think virtual cards have a place in these systems, but I don't think it ultimately changes where we go.

而且从幕后来看，这对支付卡处理商来说显然是一件有利可图的事。

And I think behind the scenes, obviously, that's a beneficial thing to push for a payment card processor.

这感觉像是通往更完整的链上代理经济的一块垫脚石，就像代币化存款最终让我们走向稳定币一样，虚拟卡也在走向稳定币。

It feels like a stepping stone to a more fully fledged out on chain economy for agents and very similar to the way that tokenized deposits ultimately feel like we're getting towards stablecoins, virtual cards towards stablecoins.

就像你说的，这只是最终接入时摩擦的问题。

It's just a matter of, like you said, the friction to ultimately onboard.

那你觉得呢？

Now what do you what do you see?

你觉得这会不会拖慢我们的进度？

Do you think that, you know, that this is gonna slow us down at all?

你看，其实吧。

I mean, look.

现有系统正在尽其所能进行监管捕获和抵制，这是它的职责所在。

The the existing system is trying to, you know, do as much regulatory capture and pushback as it can, and that's its job.

在美国尤其如此，它在这方面会取得一定的成功。

It's going to be modestly successful at that in The US in particular.

我觉得现在说这些事最终会如何发展还为时过早，但我并不担心稳定币的可寻址市场。

I do think it's probably too early to say definitively how these things will play out, but I'm not worried about stablecoins addressable market.

其实我觉得很多需求都在美国以外，我们可能在美国这边对这件事关注过度了。

I actually think a lot of it is outside The US anyway, and we may be overly focused here in The US on that specific thing.

就在前几天，旧金山联储发布了一张图表，显示稳定币填补了中国不再购买美国国债留下的空缺。

Just the other day, the San Francisco Fed put out a chart about stablecoins filling the gap left by China not buying our treasuries.

这让我想把稳定币生态里的所有东西都买下来。

That made me wanna buy everything in the stablecoin ecosystem.

因为如果美国政府把它看作是延缓这一趋势的唯一办法，那不管银行和支付处理商怎么想，你都可以肯定它最终会在很大程度上胜出。

Because if the US government sees it as the only way it's forestalling that, you can bet that it's going to end up winning to a large degree no matter what the banks and payment processors think.

所以最终，我觉得我们会达到终点，也就是稳定币。

So ultimately, I think we get to the end game, which is stablecoins.

但到达那里的速度，取决于我们能看到多少监管上的阻力。

But how fast we get there will depend on how much regulatory capture we do see.

对，完全同意。

Yeah, absolutely.

而且我们之前详细讨论过这个宏观经济转变，就是把债券市场的久期拉长，把更多发行推向曲线短端，然后依赖稳定币发行方来购买那些短期国债。

And I I we've talked at length about this macroeconomic shift, you know, twisting the duration out of the bond market, pushing more issuance into the short end of the curve and, you know, relying on stablecoin issuers to buy those bills.

而且就像你提到的，因为主权国家并没有完全填补那个缺口。

And and like you mentioned, because sovereigns aren't quite, you know, you know, filling filling that gap.

另外我在Cybos听到的一件事，想跟你们聊聊，就是很多银行之所以愿意接触区块链和链上世界，甚至愿意关注它，很大程度上是因为大家都在推动24/7市场。

The other thing that I heard at Cybos, I wanted to I wanted to run by you guys was a lot of the impotence for these banks to even take block chains in the on chain world and pay any attention to it at all has been because of this push towards 20 fourseven markets.

他们提到，他们其实并不是在关注稳定币，而是专注于代币化存款。

They mentioned that, you know, they really wouldn't even instead of stablecoins are focusing on tokenized deposits.

显然，我们知道他们的动机在哪里，所以他们才会把重点放在那里。

Obviously, we know, you know, where the incentive is, and that's why they're focusing on there.

不过，他们确实在讨论把东西搬到链上。

But, you know, they are talking about moving things on chain.

而要实现24/7市场，唯一的方法就是在链上的代币化世界里运行大部分业务。

And the only way to do that for a 20 fourseven market, the only way to have a 20 fourseven market is to run a lot of this in a tokenized world on chain.

我只是好奇你们怎么看这个进展。

And I'm just curious how you see this progressing.

这感觉像是一个根本性的转变，所有金融机构都在认真对待。

This feels like a very fundamental shift that all of financial institutions are taking seriously.

你觉得在24/7经济中，当这些系统全天候运行的时候，会有什么变化？

What do you think changes in a 20 fourseven economy when these things are operating at a full, you know, 20 fourseven market hours?

我们没有了关门时间，代币化股票、稳定币，最终所有这些金融市场都是24/7运行的。

We have, you know, no closed doors, tokenized equities, stablecoins, you know, ultimately, all of these financial markets run twenty four seven.

你觉得这会怎么影响到区块链和代币化的世界？

How do you think that it's gonna spill over into the blockchain and the tokenized world?

是的，你觉得24/7金融市场会带来什么影响？

And, yeah, just what do you what do you think are the implications of a twenty four seven financial market?

那我先来谈谈我的看法吧。

I mean, I'm happy to take a first stab.

这是个宏观问题，所以我从宏观角度来回答。

It's a big picture question, so I'll give a big picture answer.

你看。

Look.

有很多积极的影响。

There are lots of positive implications.

世界变得更加全球化了。

The the world is more global.

效率也更高了。

It's more efficient.

交易活动会大大增加。

There's a lot more trading activity.

流动性也会更充足。

There's a lot more liquidity.

我觉得资产会更容易被抵押，人们也能从自己的金融资产中获得更多的收益。

I think assets, you know, get margined more easy, and people get more activity out of their financial assets.

这些大银行之所以朝这个方向发展的另一个重要原因是，一旦资产被代币化，人们就能通过新的方式变现资产，从而赚到很多钱。

Part of the reason, the other half of the reason why these big banks are moving in that direction is there's a lot of money to be made by people monetizing their assets in new ways once they're tokenized.

我认为这是背后一个巨大的推动力。

I think that's a big, big, huge push behind it.

同时，24小时全天候市场也会带来一些风险，我们在加密货币领域已经看到了这些风险。

There are also some risks that come from a twenty four seven market that we see in crypto.