The Little Book That Builds Wealth

比如说，这个……

Like, does the...

你觉得这真的成立吗？

Do you think that's actually true?

因为，如果你自己心里没底，没真正想明白，那很可能一看到第一次回撤就把它卖掉了。

Because, like, if you don't if you don't know that in in your own mind, in your own heart, like, you're going to probably sell it as soon as you see the first drawdown.

完全同意。

Absolutely.

完全同意。

Absolutely.

你需要不要……

You you need to not...

当你买一只股票，如果你要投资个股，你需要有持有它的坚定理由。

When you buy a stock, if you're gonna invest in individual stocks, you need you need to have conviction of why you own it.

而且你需要……

And and you need to...

如果你不能从内心真正理解它，或者作为消费者或在自己的职业生涯中体验过它，那你真的需要在脑子里把它想清楚，彻底弄明白……

If you can't viscerally understand it, you know, or experience it as a consumer or in your in your career, you need to really mentally have your your head wrapped around it and under...

从心里理解，对吧。

Mentally understand, okay.

我为什么认为这家公司相对于同行真的有竞争优势。

Why do I think this company actually has a competitive advantage over over its peers.

我确实喜欢这个观点，多尔西也多次提到过这一点。

I do like the point, and Dorsey made this point a few times.

比如说，嘿。

Like, hey.

有些行业就是比其他行业好。

Some industries are just better than others.

你不需要涉足每一个行业。

Like, you don't need to be in every industry.

比如说，你没必要非得找硬件电脑制造商或汽车制造商。

Like, you know, you don't need to find a a hardware PC maker or a car maker.

你知道，你不必非得在每个行业都成功。

You know, you don't have to you don't have to be in every industry to succeed.

找到……

Find...

有些行业天生就比其他行业更有优势。

There's just some industries that are just by their nature better pawns deficient than other industries.

我真的很欣赏这一点，因为有时候我会想，哦，你看。

And I I really appreciate that because sometimes I'll have it in my head that, like, oh, look.

我只是有……

I just have...

我持有太多大型科技股，或者我持有太多……

I have too much big tech, or I have too much of...

我持有太多科技股。

I have too much tech.

我需要分散投资。

I need to diversify.

不过，你知道，我觉得其实不是这样的。

And, you know, I don't think that's actually right, though.

我觉得你需要对自己持有的公司感到安心，并且清楚为什么持有它们。

I think you need to be comfortable with the companies you own and why you own them.

而且，你知道，如果你有很多仓位，分散投资自然就实现了。

And, you know, the diversification, if you have so many positions, that kind of takes care of itself.

但是，你知道，我宁愿投资好公司和好行业，也不愿投资差公司和差行业。

But, like, you know, I'd I'd rather be in good companies and good industries than than bad companies and bad industries.

对我来说，没有理由为了分散而分散，跨行业去投资。

And to me, there's there's no reason to diversify for the sake of diversification across industries.

确实如此。

That's true.

而且，如果你看看一些行业长期的表现，你知道，比如，航空公司或金矿公司存在，并不意味着你必须持有它们。

And if you look at some industries over time, you know, like, just because airlines and gold miners exist doesn't mean you have to own them.

所以，没错。

So Correct.

你懂吧？

You know?

而且你看历史回报，长期来看都很差。

And if you look at the historical returns, they're bad, like, over the long run.

没错。

Exactly.

没错。

Exactly.

没错。

Exactly.

我的意思是，唯一的批评是，你可以在它们跌得很惨的时候买入，然后在它们稍微好转的时候卖出。

I mean, the only criticism to that would be that you can actually buy them when they're bombed out and then sell them when they've improved a little bit.

但我觉得大多数人都做不好这件事。

But I think everybody kind of sucks at that.

所以，我也是。

So Me.

在正确的时间点做对这件事。

At timing that correctly.

所以你还不如坚持那些……

So you might as well stick to com...

我看重的是那些已经证明自己能够长期创造价值的公司和行业。

The companies and industries that have demonstrated they can generate value over time is how I look at it.

完全同意。

Absolutely.

而且，你知道的，投资赚钱的方法有很多，这一点应该始终被认识到。

And and, you know, it should always be recognized that there's lots of ways to make money in investing.

但至少以我的经验来看，我擅长的不是把握周期性行业的时机，或者买那些被抛弃的行业，而是坚持持有那些公司，好吧，我不需要把买入时机把握得特别准。

But at least in my experience, the game I'm good at is not timing cyclicals or, you know, buying industries when they're bombed out, but just, like, sticking with companies that, okay, I don't have to nail the the buying time exactly right.

我只需要买入这家公司，然后持有几年。

I can just buy this company and hold it for several years.

因为这是一家好公司，所以我大概率会做得不错。

And because it's a great company, like, I'll probably do pretty well in it.

没错。

Absolutely.

所以我觉得他说的这点挺有意思的。

So I thought this was an interesting point he made.

他指出，寻找护城河会让你避开那些可能前景很好但缺乏竞争优势的新公司，这在某种程度上可能会限制回报。

He pointed out that looking for moats will keep you away from newer companies that might have great prospects, but lack a competitive advantage and that can limit returns in some ways.

但他也指出，那些公司大多数反正也不会成功，所以不如干脆避开它们。

But he also points out that most of those things don't succeed anyway, so you might as well stay away from them.

那你怎么看这个观点？

So what do you think about that that that argument?

我的意思是，我……

I mean, I...

对，我同意这个说法。

Like, I I I agree with it.

我觉得你应该就……

Like, I mean, I think you should just, like...

你看。

Look.

再说，我觉得你只要找到那些你熟悉、你了解其经济护城河的公司就行了。

Again, I I think you just find companies that you're comfortable with that you understand, like, the economic moat.

而且你明白自己为什么要买它。

And you understand why you're buying it.

这挺好的。

Like, it's great.

就像我们说的，如果你能跟那家公司有直接联系，或者作为客户或行业内的人能理解它，但关键是，你要明白自己为什么买这家公司，以及它的护城河和模式。

Like we've said, like, if you can have that, like, direct contact with that company or understand that as a customer or in the industry, but, like, yeah, understand why you're buying this company and the moats and the mode of it.

我觉得，坚持这个原则，你就会没事的。

And I think, yeah, stick to that and and and you'll you'll be fine.

我确实这么认为。

I do.

你喜欢他对护城河这些的分类方式吗？

Do you like how he categorizes the boats and everything?

好，那我们就来聊聊这个。

So, yeah, let's so let's get into that.

他定义了护城河的几种类型。

So he defines certain categories of moats.

他提到了成本优势，我们一个一个来看。

So he talks about cost advantages, and we'll talk about each of these.

成本优势、转换成本、网络效应，这些都是护城河的来源。

So cost advantages, switching costs, network effects, sources of moats.

我觉得这个框架还可以扩展。

I think you can go beyond that framework too.

市场上还有其他类型的护城河，但我觉得这个框架是个很好的思考方式。

I think there's other kinds of moats that exist out there but I think this is a great way to think about it.

总之，我们就来聊聊他提到的每一种。

So anyway, so let's talk about each of them that he that he discusses.

第一个是成本优势。

So first one cost advantages.

这就是指公司能以比竞争对手更低的成本生产产品。

So this is when a company can produce goods at a lower cost than their competitors.

这通常是因为规模经济，虽然不是唯一原因，但这是常见的来源。

So often due to economies of scale, it's not the only reason but that's a common source of those modes.

比如沃尔玛，由于他们的关系和规模，他们能以比竞争对手更低的成本采购商品。

So examples would be something like Walmart, which can obtain because of their relationships and size that they can obtain goods at a higher at a lower cost than their competitors.

我觉得另一个好例子是我持有的一家公司，台积电。

I think another good example is a company I own, Taiwan Semiconductor.

他们的人力成本和效率让他们在成本上比英特尔这样的竞争对手有显著优势，而且他们在这场竞争中已经赢了一段时间了。

So their labor costs and their efficiency are significantly make them much more cost advantageous versus a competitor like Intel, and they've been winning that war for a while.

那你觉得成本优势作为护城河的一个来源怎么样？

So so what do you think about cost advantages as a source of moat?

你有没有持有具有这种护城河的公司？

Do you do you own any companies with that kind of moat?

比如，你会考虑这种护城河来源吗？

Like, do you think about that that source of moat?

我觉得，最常见的成本优势肯定是规模。

I I think I think by far the most common cost advantage you're gonna see is is scale.

我的意思是，比如……

I I mean, like, I...

而且我觉得就是……

And I think there's just...

有道理。

Makes sense.

比如你是沃尔玛，你就能对供应商施加更大的压力，因为你占了他们业务很大一部分。

Like, if you're Walmart, you're gonna be able to, like, put the screws a little tighter on your vendors because you're gonna be such a significant part of their business.

所以我觉得这很有道理。

So I think that makes a lot of sense.

你知道，他确实提到了其他一些，我觉得那些也是真的。

You know, he does mention a few others, and I think those are real.

我只是觉得那些更难找到，或者至少可能只是……

I just think they're harder to find or at least probably just...

这种情况出现得比较少。

They just occur less often.

比如他提到更便宜的生产流程。

Like, talks about, like, cheaper processes.

你懂吧？

You know?

他还提到戴尔，他们砍掉中间商，直接卖给客户，而且库存很低，因为他们每笔订单都是定制的，或者说是按订单来生产的。

And he talks about, like, Dell, how they cut out distributors and sold directly to buyers and kept inventory low because they just customized each order, or they just built each order as they they came.

还有西南航空，他们买的是同一种机型。

Or or Southwest Airlines, they bought the same type of aircraft.

他们买新飞机，这样维护成本就低了。

They buy new aircraft, so maintenance would be lower.

他们还买了，比如……

They bought, like...

你知道，他们长期锁定了燃油价格。

You know, they guaranteed their fuel prices for a long time.

他们去了二线城市，不是那种大城市，而是美国各地的二线城市。

They kinda went to second tier places, so not, like, the big glamorous cities, but just, like, second tier cities across The US.

他们不飞国际航班。

They didn't do international flights.

我觉得挺有意思的，他也指出，竞争对手花了很长时间才模仿这些从一开始就很明显的做法。

And I do find it interesting, and and he pointed out too, like, it just took competitors so long for them to copy, like, these practices that were, like, pretty evident from the beginning.

这些并不是西南航空或戴尔的秘密，但他们却因此长期享有竞争优势。

I mean, these weren't secrets that Southwest or Dell were doing things this way, and yet they enjoyed a a competitive advantage for a long time doing that.

你可以回顾一下……

I mean, you can go back and...

你知道，我以前找过这方面的历史例子，比如亨利·福特用来制造T型车的流水线。

You know, like, I've looked for historical examples of these before, but, like, like, the assembly line, right, that that Henry Ford used to build the Model T.

那只是一个比竞争对手更便宜、更高效地制造汽车的过程。

I mean, that was just a a a process that was cheaper and more efficiently able to build automobiles than competitors.

而且福特在差不多二十年里几乎垄断了汽车市场，直到后来他们做了其他错误决定，别人才能够复制流水线。

And Ford, like, for twenty years, like, just like, you know, almost had a monopoly on the car market, you know, until, like, they made other bad decisions down the road and people were able to copy the assembly line.

但我觉得这在现实中挺难找到的。

But I think that's pretty hard to find in practice.

就是说，我只是……

Like, I mean, I just...

我现在反正也没听说过多少公司，能仅仅因为流程就拥有那种成本优势……

I don't know of too many companies out there right now anyway that have, like, that kind of cost advantage just because of the process...

就是他们用的业务流程。

The business process they use.

我之前说过，地理位置可能很重要，比如垃圾处理场、垃圾填埋场或者采石场这类地方，它们有竞争优势，就是因为离终端市场更近，运输这些货物成本很高。

I talked about, like, location can matter just like, you know, waste management sites, like garbage dumps or or things like that or quarries, things like that have a a competitive advantage because they're just closer to their end markets, and transporting these goods costs a lot of money.

所以没人会去……

And so nobody's gonna go...

你知道，没人会把你家附近的垃圾运到500英里外的垃圾填埋场去。

You know, nobody's gonna pick up the the garbage from your neighborhood and transport it 500 miles to a garbage dump.

他们肯定会去离你城市最近的垃圾填埋场，大概就在城外吧。

They're gonna go to the garbage dump that's, you know, right outside your city probably.

所以，你知道，确实有一些这样的例子，但对我来说，实际上，你最常见的成本优势还是那些规模大的企业。

So, you know, there's there's a few examples of those, but, like, to me, in reality, the the ones you're gonna find most often with the cost advantages are the ones with scale.

而且，你知道，我觉得你可以直接去找那些比较大的公司，它们通常有这些优势。

And, you know, again, I think you can just look for the the bigger businesses that have those those advantages.

但我觉得实际上，这就是你会在成本优势方面发现的情况。

But I think in reality, that's what you're gonna find for cost advantages.

你呢？

What about you?

我完全同意你说的这些。

I I I agree with all that.

你肯定想要……

You definitely want to...

确实有一些企业拥有成本优势。

There are definitely businesses that have cost advantages.

我同意。

I agree.

这很难找到。

It's a hard thing to find.

我觉得最大的优势就是规模。

The biggest one I think is scale.

这听起来很有道理，但也可能误导人。

I think that makes a ton of sense, but it can also be misleading.

你知道，一个行业里最大的公司不一定是最好的，也不一定拥有最佳的成本优势。

You know, a company that's the biggest in an industry isn't always necessarily the best and has the best cost advantages.

所以这里有一些挑战。

So there's some challenges there.

但我觉得如果你用常识去思考，比如，这真的是一个优势吗？

But I think if you use some common sense, can kind of think through like, is this a real advantage?

他们会不会随着时间的推移失去这个优势？

Are they going to lose this advantage over time?

是的，我是说，有很多伟大的公司拥有显著的成本优势，它们将能够在长期内超越竞争对手。

But yeah, I mean, there's a lot of great companies with significant cost advantages and they're going to be able to outmaneuver their competitors over time.

我觉得历史上最好的例子就是沃尔玛。

I think historically, best example is Walmart.

那可能是最典型的例子了。

That's probably the ultimate example of that.

而且你说得对，有意思的是，其他公司就是学不会他们那套。

And you're also right how it's interesting how it's funny that other companies don't catch on to what they're doing.

你知道吗，沃尔玛在60年代就开始这么干了。

You know, like Walmart was out there doing this stuff in the 60s.

想想当时那些百货公司和其他零售店，真是让人惊讶。

And it's kind of amazing that you think of all the retail that like the kind of department stores and things that existed.

我记得我小时候，我们那边还没有沃尔玛，但有四五家类似沃尔玛的店可以去，现在全没了。

Like I just think when I was a kid like there were like Walmart was not in my area and there were like four or five different kind of Walmart y places you could go to and they're all gone now.

是啊，他们就是一直没搞明白沃尔玛是怎么做到的，挺有意思的。

And yeah, and it's it's funny that they just never kind of figured it out the way Walmart did.

嗯，你会去商场，或者至少，我觉得我们算是同一代人吧。

Well, you you would go to the mall or at least, you know, I think we're from a similar generation here.

但你会去商场，那里大概有六七个主力百货商店。

But you would go to the mall and there's like, you know, six or seven anchor department stores at at one mall.

像伯丁斯、JCPenney，还有西尔斯。

Bird Eyes, JC Penney, you know, Sears.

你会去所有这些店，它们都或多或少被沃尔玛，可能还有塔吉特这样的公司冲击了。

And and you would go to all those things, and they were all, at least to some extent, disrupted by the Walmarts and probably Target too of the world.

对吧？

You know?

就像，那些只是……

Like, those are just like...

那些商场基本上已经成为过去式了。

Those malls are by and large, like a thing of the past.

确实。

That's true.

确实是这样。

It's definitely true.

而且以前那些东西也贵得多。

They were a lot more expensive too.

对，确实。

Like Yeah.

哦，是啊。

Oh, yeah.

哦，它们消失是有原因的。

Oh, there's a reason they're gone.

我是说，如果去商场购物……

I mean, like, if shopping at the malls were...

以前那么贵，你知道的，现在东西……

Was expensive, you know, I mean, things are...

我是说，现在真的能买到很便宜的东西。

I mean, you know, you can get things really cheap now.

我觉得这是好事。

I mean, that's a good thing.

你看得出它们为什么被取代了，但我的意思是，这就像……

You a see why they were replaced, but I mean, like, it's just a...

现在的零售环境和过去完全不一样了。

It's a different retail landscape now than it used to be.

我对此毫不怀疑。

I mean, there's no doubt in my mind.

完全同意。

Absolutely.

好的。

All right.

那么下一个类别是高转换成本。

So the next category is high switching costs.

也就是说，当转换到竞争对手那里成本很高，或者仅仅是很难做到的时候。

So this is when it is expensive or it could just simply be difficult to switch to a competitor.

比如，我最近收购了一家叫Cognizant的公司，那是一家外包公司。

So, you know, I recently bought a company called Cognizant, that's an outsourcing company.

我觉得这算是一个很好的例子。

And I think that's a pretty good example of this.

公司雇佣Cognizant，把一些工作外包出去。

So companies hire Cognizant, they outsource some of their labor.

一旦这么做了，就不是说关就能关掉的，像开关一样。

And once you do that, it's not like you can just turn that off like a switch.

你得重新招人，找新公司，还得教他们你所有的流程。

Like you'd have to hire all those people, you'd have to find a new company, teach them all of your processes.

所以……

So...

所以我觉得这是护城河的一个来源。

So I think that's one source of moat.

你觉得呢？

So what do you think?

你觉得转换成本作为护城河的来源怎么样？

What do you think about switching costs as a source of moat?

你觉得……

Do you think...

你有没有持有过这种护城河的公司？

Do you own any companies with that kind of moat?

哦，当然有。

Oh, absolutely.

我们说的是微软。

I mean, we're talking about Microsoft.

我觉得，你知道，一旦人们用了微软的云，那就不太可能……

I mean, like, I don't think, you know, too many people, once they're on Microsoft's cloud, you know, that's gonna be...

要迁移的话，那真是个大工程……

That's that's a real process to move...

要换到竞争对手，比如换到AWS，那可不是简单的事。

To to, you know, to switch to competitors, you know, to switch to AWS.

如果你的所有数据、所有工程师和开发人员都为一个系统培训过，你企业应用用微软，网络安全也用微软，什么都用微软，那你根本不会去换……

If all your data and all your engineers and all your developers are trained for one system, you're you're using Microsoft for your enterprise apps, and you're using it for cybersecurity, and you're using it for all these things, like, that's like, you're you're you're not gonna take...

实际上，只要微软不在价格上大幅涨价，你很可能就会一直用微软。

You know, in reality, as long as Microsoft doesn't really, really, like like, screw you over with price increases, like, you're you're probably just sticking with Microsoft.

对吧？

You know?

如果你是中小企业，只有一个IT人员或者没有IT人员，那迁移起来确实很麻烦。

If you're a small, medium business, you know, and you have, like, one IT guy or no IT guys, I mean, that's, like, that's a real process.

对吧？

You know?

我觉得这在软件行业很常见。

I think you'll find this a lot in software.

我觉得软件公司真正的护城河可能就是切换成本。

Like, I I I think, like, this is, like, maybe software's inherent moat that they have is switching costs.

因为，比如说，我在警察局工作，我们有一套系统用来写报告和处理所有类似的事情。

Because, again, like, for instance, I work at a police department, and we have a system we use for all our reports and everything like that.

当我们...

And when we...

我这么说有点暴露年龄了，但你知道吗，我刚入职那会儿，车里连电脑都没有。

Like, I'm showing my age here, but, like, you know, when I first got hired, we didn't even have computers in the car.

后来车里装了电脑，我们也从手写报告转成了全电子系统，那时候……

And when we got computers in the car and went to these all electronic systems from writing out reports the...

你知道，以前都是手写的，他们得把所有人都从路上叫回来，连续几周培训新系统。

You know, by hand, like, they had to bring in everybody off the road for weeks at a time to train you on this new system.

所以路上人手不够，办公室那边……

And so, like, the the road was short staffed, and the offices...

侦探那边也缺人，因为大家都得去参加这个培训，所有东西都在往新系统迁移。

Detectives were short staffed because they all had to go through this training that everything was moving to.

一旦你上了这样的系统，如果你是公司，已经培训了所有人，你不会轻易就说，好吧。

Once you're on a system like that, if you're a company and you've trained everybody, you're you're not very lightly going to just say, like, okay.

咱们换个新竞争对手吧。

Let's switch to a new competitor.

换个新供应商，然后再经历一遍所有那些培训。

Let's switch to a new vendor, and let's go through all that training again.

那其实不太现实。

That's just not too realistic.

你懂吧？

You know?

我有个……

I have a...

其实，我最近刚把这公司卖了。

Actually, I just very recently sold this company.

更多是因为我觉得估值可能有点过高了，而且……

And more just because, like, I thought the valuation might be getting a little ahead of itself and...

但主要还是因为我手头的公司太多了，想精简一下，不过那家公司叫Guidewire。

But more more because I had just had too many companies and I wanted to pare down my holdings, but it was Guidewire.

它的作用基本上就是，所有那些老旧的财产和意外险……

And and what it does is, like, basically, like, all these old property and casualty...

它就是一个为财产和意外险保险公司打造的现代数字平台。

It's just a a modern day digital platform for property and casualty insurers.

基本上，一旦公司用了Guidewire，就再也不会换掉了。

And and, like, basically, once a company goes to Guidewire, they never leave.

这就是关键，因为切换成本太高了。

Like, mean, that's the whole thing because there's such immense switching cost.

你懂吧？

You know?

而且现在还有很多地区性的财产和意外保险公司，还在用非常老旧的COBOL语言程序，他们需要更现代化的数字基础设施。

And there's still so many regional property and casualty carriers out there running on very old ancient COBOL language programs that need a more modern day digital infrastructure.

所以这种增长还能持续好几年。

So that growth should last for years.

再说一遍，一旦公司用了Guidewire，他们就不会离开。

And again, once a company goes to Guidewire, they don't leave.

他们就是……

They just...

他们永远不会离开，因为切换成本是实实在在的。

They never leave because the switching costs are real.

而且你还要培训你的开发人员。

And you train your developers.

再说，你培训所有人使用这个平台，以及我们怎么用这个平台，这真的是一个实实在在的转换成本。

Again, you train everybody to use this platform and how we're using the platform, and that's a real that's a real switching cost.

你懂吧？

You know?

我觉得你可以去用甲骨文，然后，你知道，我觉得……

I think you can go to Oracle and, like, you know, I think what...

就像，有个……

There's, like, a...

行业里对甲骨文怎么说来着？

What's the industry saying about Oracle?

就是说，做根管治疗都比从甲骨文换服务器要容易，或者说没那么痛苦，差不多这个意思。

It's, like, easier to get a root canal or it's less painful to get a root canal than it is to switch from Oracle as your server, something like that.

AWS，你知道，当他们……

AWS, you know, when they...

AWS最初是2005、2006年亚马逊内部的一个项目，而亚马逊直到2019年才完全摆脱Oracle服务器。

AWS started as a project within Amazon in 2005, 2006, and Amazon was not off all of its Oracle servers until 2019.

所以这就说明了，像亚马逊这样拥有大量工程师的公司，都要花这么长时间才能从Oracle服务器迁移到自己的AWS平台上。

So that just shows you how long it took for Amazon, a company with armies of engineers, to get off Oracle servers before they were all on their own AWS platform.

所以现在，如果你是一家没有这种资源的公司，你就能明白，从Oracle迁移出来是一项多么巨大的工程。

So now if you're a company without that kind of resources, you can just see, like, you can just tell, like, that's that's an immense, immense project to move off of Oracle.

所以我觉得，你会……

So I think, like, you'll...

你会发现，很多软件公司、数字公司，都面临着很高的转换成本。

You find this a lot with software companies, digital companies, like, that come with real switching cost.

这……

That's...

这这……

That that...

这些例子真的很棒。

Those are some great examples.

你刚才提到车牌的时候，我觉得挺有意思的。

It's interesting when you were talking about the plates.

所以我其实挺好奇的。

So I'm actually just curious.

在软件出现之前，你拦下别人的时候是什么情况？

What was it like before the software when, like, you pulled someone over?

你是不是得打电话给办公室的人，让他们查一下，还是怎么弄？

Did you have to, like, call someone in the office and they they pull it up or, what do you do?

嗯，你会……

Well, you would...

用对讲机。

On the radio.

用对讲机。

On the radio.

不是。

No.

以前就是这样。

That's what it was like.

我是说，你知道，现在像这样的警官已经不多了。

I mean, you know, there's not there's not too many officers like that around anymore.

能这样的……

That can be...

因为我觉得自己特别老。

Because I feel especially old.

而且我得说，我们部门也是比较晚才把车里的东西都换成电脑的。

And I will say, also, my department was one of the later departments to to move over everything to a computer in the car.

很多部门都比我们先进。

There's a lot of departments that were ahead of us.

但是，像那些……

But, like, those...

我年纪大，加上我们部门有点落后，这两件事加在一起，就……

Me being old and my department being a little behind the times, like, combined for a...

就是，我作为年轻警官的时候，还能体验到一些那样的东西。

Like, that I could experience some of that as a as a young officer.

有意思。

Interesting.

我也想知道更早之前是什么样子，比如回到五六十年代。

And I wonder what it was even like before, like, you go back to, like, sixties and fifties.

那时候他们可能连查车牌的数据库都没有。

They might not have even had databases to pull plates from.

就是。

Like

哦，我无法想象。

Oh, I can't imagine.

说实话，是的，我无法想象。

To be honest, yeah, I can't imagine.

我无法想象。

I can't imagine.

我不太……

I don't...

我完全想象不到那会是什么样子。

I have no idea what it would be like.

我……

I...

有时候我会想这些事，或者，你知道，在没有手机的世界里，那完全是另一个世界。

Like, sometimes I think about things like that or, you know, in a world before cell phones, you know, like, I guess, totally different world out there.

确实。

Absolutely.

好。

Okay.

接下来他讲的另一种护城河是网络效应。

So the next kind of moat that he talks about is network effects.

我觉得过去十年里，这种护城河更受关注。

And I think this has been kind of a hotter version of a moat in the last decade.

我觉得最典型的例子就是Meta、Facebook和Instagram。

So biggest examples of this, I think, are like meta, Facebook and Instagram.

随着网络扩大，比如你有了一个产品，然后越来越多的人使用它，这个网络的价值就越来越大。

Like as the network grows, like as you have a product and then you have more people on it, that network becomes more valuable as it grows.

所以你今天可以自己做一个类似Facebook的东西，但如果没人去用……

So like you could make your own version of Facebook today, but if nobody goes...

没人登录、没人分享内容，那它就没有什么价值。

Logs on and shares anything, then it's not particularly valuable.

那你觉得网络效应作为护城河怎么样？

So what do you think about network effects as a source of moat?

其实我会……

So I'll actually...

我会说……

I'll make...

我觉得这本身就说明了一个问题。

I think this makes a point in and of itself.

因为这本书写于，我是说，大概2007、2008年，而他在这章里用的例子，到今天依然是你可能想用的例子。

Because this book was written, I mean, I think in 2007, 2008, and the examples he uses in this chapter are still the examples you probably wanna use today.

所以我觉得这是一个非常强大的护城河。

So I think this is a very powerful moat.

你知道，其他章节里，他用的例子，你会觉得，哦，好吧。

Like, you know, the other chapters, he uses examples, and you're like, oh, okay.

你知道，那有点像是……

You know, that's kind of an...

也许是个比较老的护城河例子，而且那家公司现在可能已经不再拥有那个护城河了。

Maybe an older example, you know, of a moat, and maybe that company doesn't still enjoy that moat.

但是，他谈到了银行卡网络、信用卡、万事达和维萨。

But, like, he talks about card networks and credit cards and Mastercard and Visa.

只要一提到网络效应，我立刻就会想到万事达和维萨。

Like, as soon as you say network effects, like, I think of Mastercard and Visa.

你知道，他还谈到了证券交易所，我想到的是期货合约和洲际交易所。

You know, he talks about, like, the the stock exchanges, and I think about, like, the future contracts and Intercontinental Exchange.

他们拥有纽约证券交易所。

Like, they own the New York Stock Exchange.

他们拥有一些非常好的业务，但他们还拥有一些期货合约，因为他们的平台上有更多的期货买卖双方，所以他们的流动性要好得多。

They own some very nice businesses, but they own, like, some future contracts where, like, because, like, there's there's more buyers and sellers of future contracts on their platform, They just have way better liquidity.

正因为如此，买卖双方能获得更好的价格发现，这……

And because of that better price discovery for buyers and sellers, that...

这就是他们想去的地方。

That's where they wanna go to.

而且他们收取的佣金更低。

And, like, the commission they sell is less.

我经常把这个例子搞错一点，但比如说石油期货，每份合约的价格上涨，我记得是每份10美元，他们收取3美元的佣金之类的。

I always get this example a a little wrong, but it's like for for oil futures, like, you know, the price of each contract goes up by, I think, increments of $10, and they charge $3 commissions or something.

所以你我都可以过来说，嘿。

So you and I could come in and say, hey.

我们要在我们的平台上卖石油期货，而且我们不收佣金。

We're gonna sell oil futures on our thing, and we're gonna sell no commission.

但如果在他们的平台上有更好的价格发现，比如说，你知道，价格从140美元跌到130美元，或者别的什么，那你就会去那个平台，即使我们不收佣金。

But if you have better price discovery on their platform, like, you know, just from, you know, one one price tick from $140 to $130 or or whatever, like, you're gonna go to that platform even if we have no commission.

实际上，他们可以把佣金提高很多，那也没关系。

In fact, they could raise their commission by a lot, and it still wouldn't matter.

就是说，对买卖双方来说，去他们的平台仍然比去一个不收佣金的地方更好。

Like, it would still be better for buyers and sellers to go to their platform than somebody who charged no commissions.

所以我觉得网络效应是非常真实且强大的。

So I think network effects are are very real and very powerful.

我记得我们之前聊过Facebook，还有那些表情包攻击。

And I think we were talking about Facebook earlier, emote attacks.

我们刚刚看到，因为他们已经有用户了，他们可以直接整合一个新功能，不管是故事还是短视频。

And we've just seen that because they have the users already, they can just integrate a new a new feature, whether it's stories, whether it's reels.

而且用户会自动在那里，因为他们已经有现成的用户分发渠道了。

And they're just gonna have users automatically there because their the distribution to its users is already there.

网络效应可以成为非常非常强大的经济护城河。

And network effects can be very, very, very powerful economic moats.

是的，完全同意。

Yeah, absolutely.

而且，我觉得在很多行业都能看到这种现象，不管是什么平台，随着它不断壮大，它会变得越来越有价值，也越来越难被颠覆。

And yeah, you can find them, I think, in many different industries, like as the platform grows, whatever it is, it's gonna become more valuable and harder to disrupt over time.

对，我觉得Reels就是个很好的例子。

And, yeah, I think Reels is a good example.

你知道，他们当时确实面临TikTok的冲击，而Reels就是他们应对这个挑战的答案。

So, you know, they were definitely facing an attack by TikTok, and that was their their answer to that.

而且看起来到目前为止还挺成功的。

And looks like it's been successful so far.

关于网络效应，我想说一点，多西也提到过这个观点。

The the one thing I'll say about network effects, and Dorsey's made this point.

我不确定是在书里还是在他的演讲中看到的，但网络效应也可能失去力量，比如当用户开始流失时，一旦开始衰退，可能会迅速崩塌。

I'm not sure if it was in the book or, like, I saw him do it in one of his talks, but it can also lose its power, like, as users start to leave, which makes it, like like, once it starts to erode, it can erode rapidly.

所以，你知道，如果每个用户都让网络更有价值，那么每个离开的用户也会让它价值降低。

So, like, you know, if every user makes that network more valuable, then every user that leaves makes it less valuable.

所以我记得，几年前Meta的股价跌到100美元以下的时候，各种像“抵制Facebook”这样的热搜，还有那些广告商说要撤的新闻，真的让我有点慌。

So I think I remember, like, when when Meta's stock price was falling a few years ago to, you know, under $100, and there's all these things like boycott Facebook was trending or, you know, all these advertisers were saying they were leaving.

作为Meta的投资者，我当时真的吓到了，心想：哇。

Like, it scared me because as an investor in Meta that, like, wow.

如果人们真的开始离开，这个护城河真的可能会被侵蚀掉。

Like, if people do start leaving, you could see this moat really erode.

不过现在我觉得并没有证据表明这种情况会发生。

Now I don't think there's any evidence of that.

我觉得那更多是媒体在炒作“封禁Facebook”这个话题。

Like, I think it was more just, like, you know, a media talking point as far as, like, banning Facebook.

而且我觉得股价下跌的主要担忧其实是资本配置到元宇宙和资本支出这些方面。

And I think most of the concerns about a stock price dropping were it's, like, capital allocation to the metaverse and CapEx expenses and things like that.

但我心里一直有个念头，就是如果用户真的开始离开平台，网络效应的护城河可能会比高转换成本那种模式更快地蒸发掉。

However, like, was always in the back of my head that if people actually start leaving the platform, like, you could see its network effect mode evaporate rather rapidly than you could say, like, another type of mode, like a high switching cost.

所以……

So...

但我觉得，这确实是个值得留意的地方。

But just something to, I think, to watch out for.

说得有道理。

It's a good point.

我当时也担心过这个，因为从身边的情况来看，好像很多朋友都不怎么用Facebook了，不像以前那样频繁。

I was also worried about that as well because just anecdotally, like, it seems like a lot of my friends don't use Facebook as much as they used to back in the day.

但让我有信心的是，我看了他们的投资者演示，发现日活跃用户数一直在增长。

But what gave me some confidence in that was I looked at the investor presentation and I saw that their average daily users kept increasing.

所以只要这个指标还在涨，我就觉得这些平台状况不错。

So as long as that metric keeps increasing for me, I feel confident that these platforms are in good shape.

而且，虽然Facebook可能在下滑，但我觉得Instagram肯定不是这样。

And even though, I don't know, Facebook might be in decline, but I'm pretty sure that Instagram's not Exactly.

实际情况就是这样。

What's happened.

所以。

So

对。

Yep.

对。

Yep.

没错。

Exactly.

所以另一个护城河来源是无形资产。

So the other source of moat is intangible assets.

就是像品牌、专利这类东西。

So that's things like brands, patents, stuff like that.

那你觉得无形资产作为护城河来源怎么样？

So what do you think about intangible assets as a source of moat?

我觉得这是大多数投资者……

I think this is the moat that most investors...

如果你误判了一家有护城河的公司，我觉得问题就出在这里。

Like, if you mistake a company with a moat, I think this is where it'll mess you up.

因为我觉得很多时候，你会说，那家公司的护城河是什么？

Because I think a lot of times, like, you'll you'll say, like, well, what's that company's moat?

如果它其实没有护城河，你可能会说是品牌。

And if it doesn't really have a moat, you might say brand.

你懂吧？

You know?

或者，你知道，如果是像……

Or, you know, if it's like...

他在书前面提到那些被误认为护城河的情况，他说有时候一个很棒的产品会被误认为是护城河。

When he's talking about mistaken moats earlier in the book and he's talking about, like, a great product can sometimes be can sometimes be mistaken for a moat.

我回想一下，大概十年前，GoPro。

I'll go back, like, maybe ten years ago, GoPro.

GoPro刚出来的时候，非常火，是个热门新产品，然后人们会买它，用来拍滑雪、滑水或者别的什么。

When GoPro came out, like, it was very popular, a hot new product, and and, you know, people would buy it, and they would, like, video their snowboarding or water skiing or or whatever.

这些相机真的很棒。

Like, these cameras were great.

这是个很棒的产品。

It's a great product.

这是个很棒的产品。

It's a great product.

但我觉得人们当时误解了这一点。

And I think people mistook it, though.

比如，可能以为它有护城河，但实际上并没有。

Like, maybe, like, it had a moat when it really didn't.

而且我觉得如果你当时问人们，嘿。

And and I think if you had asked people back then, hey.

GoPro的护城河是什么？

What's what's GoPro's moat?

你知道吗？

You know?

它的经济护城河是什么？

What's its economic moat?

他们可能会说是品牌。

They probably would have said brand.

哦，它有很好的品牌，或者类似这样的。

Oh, it has a great brand or or something like that.

那应该……

And that should...

我的意思是，这只是一个例子，因为很久以前我记得和一个朋友争论过这件事。

I mean, that's just one example because I remember debating a friend about that a long time ago.

但是，我觉得这种情况你得小心。

But, like, I think this is one where you have to be careful.

我的意思是，无形资产护城河确实存在。

I mean, intangible asset moats do very much exist.

我只是觉得你得小心，比如……

I just think you have to be careful, like, be...

我觉得在谈论一家公司的时候，你得对自己非常诚实。

You have to be brutally honest with yourself, I think, when you're talking about a company.

可能你喜欢的公司，它的产品你很喜欢，但它到底有没有真正的护城河呢。

It may be a company you you enjoy its products, like, it actually has a moat or not.

我同意你的看法，品牌可能是最弱的护城河形式。

I I agree with you that brands are probably the weakest form of moat.

我也不确定它们是否还像以前那么有影响力。

I'm also not sure if they're as powerful as they used to be.

比如说，我觉得宝洁有很多产品都是好品牌。

So I'm thinking of like, for instance, like I think Procter and Gamble had a lot of products that are good brands.

它们现在依然是很好的品牌。

They're still good brands.

我不是想贬低宝洁，但我觉得它已经没有八十年代、九十年代那种影响力了，那时候你去超市看到汰渍就会买，而且只想要那个牌子。

I don't wanna knock Procter and Gamble, but I don't think it's got the power it used to have in like the eighties and nineties when you go to a supermarket and you know, you see Tide and you buy it and that's the only brand that you want.

我觉得因为互联网，人们确实更愿意尝试新品牌了。

Like I do think people are more open to because of the internet trying out new brands.

一个好的例子就是很多年前的Dollar Shave Club。

Like good example of that I think would be like Dollar Shave Club years ago.

你知道吗，他们挑战了吉列。

You know, they they challenged Gillette.

你知道吗，你绝不会想到吉列是沃伦·巴菲特一直说的护城河的终极例子。

You know, you would have never thought Gillette was something that Warren Buffett always discussed as the ultimate example of a moat.

但这时来了一个竞争对手，挑战了他们。

But here comes along a competitor and challenges them.

最终，我觉得 Dollar Shave Club 被一个大品牌收购了。

Ultimately, I think Dollar Shave Club was bought out by one of the big brands.

我忘了是联合利华还是……

I forget if it was Unilever or

我觉得是联合利华。

I think it was Unilever.

对。

Yep.

所以就是其中之一。

So it was one of them.

但话说回来，这恰恰说明，互联网给品牌带来了过去不存在的威胁。

But still, I mean, it just shows that there are threats because of the internet to brands that didn't exist in the past.

对，我觉得多尔西说得对，品牌的力量就在于能降低搜索成本，对吧？

Yeah, I think Dorsey makes the point that the power of a brand can be you can lower searching cost, right?

所以以前，如果你……

So back in the day, if you were...

比如说，你开车带家人出去玩，中途停下来……

Like, let's say you're going on a road trip with your family and you pull over and you...

该吃晚饭了，那个出口有五家餐厅，其中四家你从来没听说过。

It's time to get dinner, and there's, like, five restaurants at that, you know, at that exit, and you've never heard of four of them.

然后有一家 Chili's 或者麦当劳之类的。

And then there's a a Chili's or McDonald's or or whatever.

随便挑一家。

Take your pick.

作为一个路过的人，你根本没法去评价其他那些餐厅。

Like, there's no way for you as someone passing through to, like, evaluate those other restaurants.

现在你可能会想冒险一下，说，咱们试试那家餐厅吧，或者什么的。

Now you might be adventurous and be like, let's try that restaurant, you know, or or whatever.

看看它怎么样。

Let's see how it is.

但如果你想知道自己会得到什么，你会去你认识的那家餐厅，因为品牌，比如麦当劳。

But if you wanted to know what you were getting, you'd go to the restaurant you recognize because of the brand, like McDonald's.

虽然我知道在麦当劳或 Chili's 会得到什么。

Though I know what I'm getting at McDonald's or Chili's.

我知道在 Chili's 会得到什么。

I know what I'm getting at Chili's.

现在，你只要打开谷歌应用，打开地图，然后你会说，哦，那家餐厅有4.6星。

Nowadays, you you you just pull up your Google app and you pull up maps and you're like, oh, that restaurant has 4.6 stars.

那真的很不错。

That's really good.

那是一家好餐厅。

That's a good restaurant.

你知道吗？

You know?

而且你不需要想太多，就能基本相信在那里能吃到一顿像样的饭。

And you don't need to think really too much beyond that to have at least pretty much faith that you'll get a decent meal there.

所以我觉得你说得完全对。

So I think you're absolutely right.

互联网确实改变了很多东西。

The Internet has changed a lot of things.

我想说的是，品牌的作用体现在它们为其他东西赋予价值，比如穆迪或标普的债券评级。

I I will say, like, where you see brands is, like, where they signify value to something else or signify, like, Moody's or S and P with their bond ratings.

我以前把它们的护城河归因于监管审批。

Like, I I used to attribute their economic moat to regulatory approvals.

但实际上……

But there's actually...

就像……

There's like...

我想说，在美国，现在有27家机构获得了政府的认证，可以为债券或金融机构评级。

I wanna say in The US, there's there's 27 organizations now that are accredited by the government that can rate bonds or rate financial institutions.

但三大机构，惠誉、标普、穆迪，却拥有……

And yet the big three, Fitch, S and P, Moody's, own...

它们三家仍然占据了大约95%的市场份额。

Still owns about 95% of market share between the three of them.

这仅仅是因为，在很长一段时间里，几十年里，它们是仅有的三家获得政府认证的机构。

And it's just because, like, for a long time, for decades, they were the only three accredited by the by the government.

尽管现在这种认证已经扩展到更多公司几十年了，但它们拥有人们认可的品牌。

And even though that accreditation now has spread to many more companies for a few decades, they have that brand that people recognize.

如果你是一个城市，想要为一个大项目发行市政债券，而且你知道你可以……

And if you're a city and you're trying to issue a municipal bond for a big project that you have going on and you know you can get...

如果由三大机构之一批准或评级，你可以收取更低的利率，你会这么做。

You can charge a lower interest rate if you get approved or rated by one of the big three, you're going to do that.

而且它们向你收取多少费用并不重要，因为你支付给购买市政债券的投资者和债券评级机构费用的利息，仍然会少得多。

And it doesn't matter what they charge you because you're still going to be paying a lot less on interest rates to the people who buy your municipal bonds to the investors than you are to whatever fee the bond rating agency issues you.

所以我觉得现在还是有一些非常强大的品牌，但我不认为它们像以前那样覆盖面那么广，尤其是在消费品牌方面。

So I think there are still really powerful brands out there, but I don't think it's as broad or as wide as it used to be, especially with consumer brands.

确实。

Definitely.

想想还挺有意思的。

That's funny to think about.

比如说，如果你是一个地方政府，想发行债券，然后你说，嗯，我没有穆迪的评级，但我有鲍勃的评级。

Like, if you were trying to raise a bond as, you know, municipality and you're like, well, I don't have a Moody's rating, but I've got, like, Bob's ratings.

对，就是这样。

Like, exactly.

没人会买你的债券。

No one's gonna buy your bonds.

没错。

Exactly.

没错。

Exactly.

就是说，我以前写过关于穆迪的分析文章。

Like like, I mean, I've done write ups on Moody's in the past.

而且这么多年下来，你能收集到很多投资者说的话，他们就是说，对，如果你拿鲍勃的评级来找我，那根本不算数。

And there's so many quotes out there, like, over the years that you can collect where it's just like investors saying, like, yeah.

那根本不算数。

It doesn't it doesn't mean squat if you come to me with Bob's rating.

就是说，你知道，你……

Like like, you know, you're...

作为投资者，如果债券不是三大评级机构评的，你会要求高得多的利率。

As an investor, you're gonna demand a much higher interest rate percentage, you know, interest rate on that bond if it's not rated by one of the big three.

而且实际上，你通常会被三大中的两家评级。

And and, really, like, you you usually get rated by two of the big three.

所以，如果你是惠誉、标普或穆迪，你……

So, you know, if you're Fitch, S and P, or Moody's, you're...

你基本上有三分之二的机会。

You basically have a two thirds chance.

就是说，你会得到……

Like, you're gonna get...

每一笔发行的债券都会请你来评级。

You're gonna be hired for every single bond issued.

我是说，这简直就是个超棒的商业模式。

I mean, that's just like, that's a great business model.

你懂吧？

You know?

这确实是个很棒的商业模式。

That is a great business model.

所以……

So

我研究标普全球的时候真的印象深刻，因为他们不仅有评级服务，现在还有各种指数。

I was really impressed when I looked into S and P Global because, not only did they have the rating services, but now they have all the indexes too.

而且，你知道，任何运营ETF的人，只要用他们的指数，就得给他们付费。

And it's like, you know, anyone who runs an ETF running one of those indexes pays them a fee.

所以这相当有影响力。

So it's pretty powerful.

你觉得迪士尼的知识产权怎么样？

What do you think about the intellectual property in in Disney?

这个嘛……

So this is one that...

我在迪士尼待了很长时间，最近才卖掉我的股票。

I was in Disney for a very, very long time, and I I sold my shares semi recently.

但我一直觉得，好吧。

But, like, I just always thought, like, okay.

如果谁的知识产权有价值的话，

If anybody has intellectual property that...

那肯定是迪士尼，他们有星球大战、漫威，还有米老鼠，以及他们的动画库。

That's worth anything, it's Disney with Star Wars and Marvel and, you know, Mickey Mouse and their, you know, their library of of animation.

对吧？

You know?

我当时就觉得，这家公司确实有真正的知识产权。

I I just thought, like, this company has real intellectual property.

但结果呢，它作为一家公司却表现得很糟糕。

And yet, like, it failed miserably as an...

我在里面投了十年，最后卖出的价格跟我十年前买入时差不多。

I mean, I think I was in it for ten years, and I basically sold it for the same price I bought it for ten years before.

我觉得知识产权作为护城河其实很弱，而且迪士尼……

I think it's a weak source of moat, and I think Disney...

我同意。

I I agree.

它确实是个很好的例子。

It's a pretty good example of it.

而且这也说明，知识产权需要非常小心地维护。

And, I mean, it also shows how with intellectual property, it needs to be really carefully maintained.

我觉得迪士尼的问题之一就是，他们把知识产权过度饱和地推向市场了。

Like, I think part of what Disney did was they oversaturated the market with their intellectual property.

就像《星球大战》，如果每隔一段时间才出几部电影，那它真的很特别，人们会真正产生共鸣。

It's like Star Wars is really special when there's like a handful of movies that come out every once in a while, And it's something that people really connect with.

但如果你每年都推出一部《星球大战》电影和三部电视剧，那就有点过度饱和了，人们就不会那么在意了。

But when you're releasing a Star Wars movie and three Star Wars TV shows every year, it kind of gets oversaturated and people don't care as much about need...

比如，你希望当你要拍一部新的《星球大战》电影或推出新的电视剧时，人们会感到兴奋。

Like, you want people to be excited when you're making a new Star Wars movie or coming out with a new Star Wars TV show.

是的，我觉得这说明你需要更加小心地处理这些东西，否则你会……

And, yeah, I think it shows you need to be a lot more careful with that stuff or you'll...

否则你可能会毁掉它。

Or you can ruin it.

你可能会毁掉那个知识产权。

You can ruin that intellectual property.

然后最后，比如专利。

And then finally, like, patents.

我本来想查一下这个数据，但这让我想起，菲尔·费舍尔在我们读那本关于专利的书时说过一些话。

I was trying to pull up this stat, but it reminds me, like, Phil Fisher says something when we were going through that book about patents.

基本上，你知道，拥有一些专有流程比专利更好。

Basically, like, you know, having some proprietary processes are just better than patents.

比如，要小心那些大量申请专利的公司。

Like, just be careful of companies that issue a lot of patents.

如果你去查一下……

And if you look it up...

我现在找不到那个数据。

I I I can't find it right now.

但是，比如，那个……

But, like, the comp...

那家科技公司……

The tech company...

或者我不该这么说。

Or I shouldn't have said that.

有点……

It kinda...

但是，比如说，在过去二十多年里，除了去年，美国专利最多的科技公司一直是IBM。

But, like, for the the last twenty plus years, except for this last year, the tech company with the most patents in The US has been IBM.

而且，我觉得这正好说明，你看。

And, like, I think that just shows you that, okay.

专利在这里可能被高估了。

Patents might be overrated here.

比如说，你知道，没人会说IBM在过去二十年里在技术上一直处于领先地位。

Like, you know, nobody would say, I think IBM has been on the cutting edge of any technology the last twenty years.

所以我觉得专利……

So I think patents...

除非你是制药公司，而且是为了一款重磅药物，并且是在那个周期的开始阶段，而不是末尾，否则我觉得专利也可能是一个很弱的护城河。

Unless you're a pharmaceutical and it's for a a blockbuster drug and and you're getting in at the beginning of that cycle, not the end, I think patents can also be a weak source of moat.

我同意。

I agree.

我持有过百健的股票，后来卖了，还亏了钱。

I owned Biogen and I sold it and I lost money on it.

我当时买它的时候想的是，嘿，他们有很多专利，而且还有其他在研的产品能弥补这些。

And I bought that saying, hey, they have a ton of patents on things and there's other things in the pipeline that will make up for that.

但结果并不是那样。

And it didn't really work out like that.

所以是的，我同意你的看法，专利并不是万能的。

So yeah, I agree with you patents aren't the end all be all.

我觉得这对现在那些买礼来这类公司的人来说是个警示，因为他们靠GLP-1之类的药取得了巨大成功。

And I I think that's a word of caution for people now who are buying things like Eli Lilly because they've had so much success with like the GLP ones and everything.

这种优势能持续多久呢？

How long is that gonna last?

我不知道，我真的不知道能持续多久，但市面上已经有那么多GLP-1药物了。

I don't know how long I don't actually know how long that lasts, but there's already so many GLP ones out there.

这真的能算是一种护城河吗？

Is that really, like, a source of moat?

随着时间推移，很可能会有更便宜的仿制药出现。

There's probably gonna be cheaper generics that come out over time.

比如说，真的值得为这个付出高价吗？

Like, is it really worth paying up for that?

我觉得这是投资者需要认真思考的问题。

Like, that's a question I think investors need to really think hard about.

我同意。

I agree.

专利作为护城河其实挺弱的。

Patents are pretty are pretty weak source of moat.

我在吉利德亏了钱。

I I lost money in Gilead.

情况类似。

Similar story.

当时看起来挺便宜的。

Like, it it looked cheap.

我以为我是在免费获得其他管线，你知道，我会说，除了丙肝和HIV药物之外，其他管线都是白送的。

I thought I was getting the rest of the, you know, I would I would say things like I'm getting the rest of the pipeline for free, you know, over its hepatitis and HIV drugs.

结果并不太顺利。

It didn't work out so well.

明白了。

Gotcha.

而且那也是一家很棒的公司。

And that's, that's a great company too.

所以，是的。

So, yeah.

所以我完全同意这一点。

So I definitely agree with that.

他还提到，增长并不总是好事，公司应该专注于自己的专长。

So thinking about, he also made the point that growth is not always good and companies should specialize.

我觉得这个观点挺有意思的。

So I thought that was a pretty interesting perspective.

你怎么看这个问题？

What do you what do you think about that?