407：如果目标函数已知，那就不是企业战略（战略技能经典）

没有远见，人民就会灭亡。

And when there is no vision, the people perish.

我们选择登月。

We choose to go to the moon.

如果今天是我生命的最后一天，我会想做我今天即将要做的事吗？

If today were the last day of my life, would I wanna do what I am about to do today?

如果我们等待别人，或者等待另一个时间，变革就不会到来。

Change will not come if we wait for some other person or if we wait for some other time.

我们就是我们一直在等待的人。

We are the ones we've been waiting for.

欢迎收听策略技能播客，在这里，战略合作伙伴将教你解决人类最大问题的工具和技巧。

Welcome to the strategy skills podcast, where strategy partners teach you the tools and techniques to solve mankind's greatest problems.

嘿。

Hey.

我是迈克尔，欢迎收听另一期播客节目。

It's Michael, and welcome to another podcast episode.

在进入今天的节目之前，我们想向您提供一个福利。

Before I get into today's episode, we wanted to make an offer to you.

如果您访问 firmsconsulting.com，会看到一个弹窗，或者找到一个输入邮箱地址的地方，也可以在公司咨询网站上注册。

If you go to firmsconsulting.com, you will see a pop up or you'll see a place to add in your email address or you can register on the firm's consulting website.

如果您在该网站上注册，就会被列入一个专属名单。

If you register onto that website, you get put into an exclusive list.

加入这个专属名单后，您将获得我们提供给 FC 会员的独家内容样本。

And what you get in that exclusive list is samples of the content we have available to FC insiders.

所以，希望您喜欢今天的节目。

So that said, I hope you enjoy today's episode.

在今天的播客中，我想回顾一个在我们深入探讨时您必须理解的核心概念。

So in today's podcast, I wanna go back to a very core concept that you need to understand as we move in.

对吧？

Right?

在上一期播客中，我谈到了企业战略的定义，并解释了什么是企业战略。

In our previous podcast, I spoke about the definition of corporate strategy, explained what is corporate strategy.

我说过，不管别人怎么告诉你，如果你进入一个战略研究，其中关键问题对你来说是已知的，你要最大化的目标函数也是已知的，那就不叫企业战略。

And I said that irrespective of what anyone tells you, if you go into a strategy study where the key question is known to you, the objective function you are maximizing is known to you, that is not corporate strategy.

因为企业战略不是关于知道如何最大化某个目标函数，而是关于选择你想要最大化的目标函数。

Because corporate strategy is not about knowing how to maximize an objective function, it's about choosing the objective function you want to maximize.

这就是企业战略与其他所有类型战略的关键区别。

That's the key difference between corporate strategy and every other kind of strategy.

对吧？

Right?

不管别人怎么告诉你，即使你直接向CEO汇报，也不意味着你在做企业战略。

No matter what anyone tells you, if you even if you're reporting to the CEO, it doesn't mean you're doing corporate strategy.

如果你向CEO汇报，你是在做有影响力的工作，但那是另一回事。

You're doing influential work if you report to the CEO, but that's a different issue.

但如果你要做企业战略，通常你需要向CEO汇报，更重要的是，你必须确定需要最大化的目标函数。

But if you're gonna do corporate strategy, you have to report to the CEO generally, but it you have to be determining the objective function that needs to be maximized.

如果你对目标函数这个概念还不清楚，回去听听我之前关于企业战略是什么以及企业战略差异的那期播客。

If you're not clear with this concept of objective function, go back and listen to the earlier podcast where I talked about what is corporate strategy and the differences in corporate strategy.

对吧？

Right?

现在，企业战略还有另一个重要要求。

Now there's another important requirement in corporate strategy.

在讲这个之前，我要指出另一个观察结果。

Before I get to that, I'm gonna point out one other observation.

如果你通常喜欢数字运算和分析，喜欢查阅损益表和资产负债表，你就具备了成为优秀企业战略家的基础。

If you generally like number crunching and analysis and like going through income statements and balance sheets, you have the foundation to be a great corporate strategist.

但事实上，企业战略虽然非常注重分析，却是一种非量化的分析。

But the reality is corporate strategy, while it is very analytic, it is a very non quantitative analytic.

对吧？

Right?

你会看到我们分析这个问题的方式。

You're gonna see the way we analyze this problem.

如果你一直在关注这项研究，并且是我们的订阅者，你会看到我们分析问题、构建逻辑的方式。

If you've been watching the study and if you're a subscriber, you'll see the way we analyze the problem, the way we built the logic.

这个逻辑无懈可击。

The logic is impeccable.

它完全说得通。

It makes perfect sense.

但如果你看着这个，心想：要得出迈克尔和他的团队提出的这种完美逻辑，我需要做什么样的分析？其实根本不存在这样的分析。

But if you're looking at this and saying, okay, what analysis would I need to do to arrive at this perfect logic Michael and his team came up with, there's no analysis for that.

这正是我想表达的意思。

That's what I'm trying to say.

这是一个分析过程，但不是建立在数字基础上的分析过程。

It is analytic process, but an analytic process not built on numbers.

如果你依赖数字运算能力来做企业战略工作，你将得出非常薄弱的战略，因为很多问题根本无法通过数字计算得出。

And if you rely on a number crunching ability to do corporate strategy work, you're gonna produce very weak corporate strategy because a lot of the issues can't be crunched out of.

对吧？

Right?

你无法靠计算来解决这些问题。

You can't crunch your way into them.

所以要清楚这一点。

So be clear about that.

对吧？

Right?

这种缺乏数值分析的情况在企业战略中非常普遍。

This lack of numerical analysis is very common in corporate strategy.

它关乎主观判断，要看一家公司正在做什么，需要做什么，并将这些整合成一个论点。

It's about subjectivity, looking at what a company does, looking at what they need to do, and weaving together an argument.

我已经在研究中列出了所有这些内容。

Now I've listed all of that out in the studies.

我不会再一一展开。

I'm not gonna go through it.

这本身就可以做成一系列播客，但你要留意这一点。

It's a set of podcasts by itself, but be aware of that.

现在我要讲第二个重要原则。

Now I'm gonna come to the second important rule.

所以每当我进行企业战略研究时，我都会关注这两点。

So whenever I'm doing a corporate strategy study, I look at these two things.

第一，是否存在一个客观目标函数？

First, is there an objective function?

如果没有高概率的企业战略。

If there's no high probability corporate strategy.

第二，第二个条件是你必须帮助客户选择一个他们将参与的市场。

Two, the second condition is that you must be helping a client pick a market in which it will play.

这并不是一个市场进入策略。

This is not a market entry strategy.

你可能根本不会进入这个市场。

You may not be entering the market at all.

你可能身处一个国家，然后说：你知道吗？

You could be in a country and saying, you know what?

核心业务是向消费者销售敞篷车，但这一块正在下滑。

Core business of selling cars to, you know, convertibles is declining.

我们接下来该做什么？

What should we do next?

那就是选择一个新市场。

That's picking a new market.

对吧？

Right?

现在，如果你既没有选择新市场，也没有处理没有目标函数的情况，那你就没有在做企业战略，这就是规则，就这么简单。

Now, if you're not picking a new market and you're not dealing with the situation where there's no objective function, you're not doing corporate strategy, that's the rule of That's that simple.

那么，我所说的‘选择一个获胜市场’是什么意思呢？

Now what do I mean by picking a winning market?

为了更好地理解这一点，我认为全球任何顾问写的关于这个主题的最佳书籍是迈克尔·雷纳的《战略悖论》。

Well, to understand this better, I think the best book written by this subject by any consultant anywhere in the world is, The Strategy Paradox by Michael Rayner.

迈克尔·雷纳是加拿大常春藤商学院的毕业生，我认为他本科也上过哈佛，但我不能确定。

So Michael Rayner is a, I think he's a graduate of the Ivy Business School in Canada, and I think he also went to Harvard for his undergraduate, but I can't be sure about that.

我认为他后来回到哈佛攻读工商管理博士并获得博士学位。

And I think he went back to Harvard to do his DBA and get his PhD.

对吧？

Right?

这是一本非常好的书。

And it's a very good book.

我强烈建议你读这本书。

I would strongly urge you to read that book.

他指出的是他所谓的良好战略的悖论。

What he points out is what he calls it the the paradox of a good strategy.

如果你选择了一个市场，假设你想瞄准美国的低收入消费者，就像沃尔玛的目标一样。

If you pick a market, let's assume you wanna go after the the low income consumer in The United States, like what Walmart is targeting.

对吧？

Right?

如果你完美地组织公司来瞄准这个市场，完美地培训员工做出决策，以更低的成本采购产品，从而以更低的价格卖给消费者，如果你完美地建立起一种积极、完全契合低成本市场的文化，而当市场发生变化时——比如美国人变得富裕得多，不再愿意购买低价商品——沃尔玛在短期到中期几乎不可能改变它的文化、实践、关系和组织结构，去转向其他方向。

And you say that if you perfectly organize the company to target that market, if you perfectly train your employees to make decisions to get produce at a lower cost so you can sell it at a lower price to your consumers, If you perfectly build this culture of aggressively and, you know, completely being in tune with this low cost market, if the market changes and let's say Americans become much wealthier and no one wants to buy low cost stuff, it's virtually impossible for Walmart in the short to medium term to change its culture, to change its practices, to change its relationships, to change its organizational structure, to move our end.

所以，是市场远离了沃尔玛，而不是沃尔玛做错了什么。

So the market moves away from Walmart rather than Walmart doing anything wrong.

迈克尔·雷纳正确地指出，别去管那些执行不力或选错市场的公司。

And what Michael Rayner rightly argues is that forget all the companies that were just bad execution and pick the wrong market.

看看那些执行出色、选对市场并成功实施的公司。

Look at the companies that were great at execution, pick the right market, and create implementation.

很多公司失败，并不是因为它们做错了什么，而是市场突然远离了它们。

A lot of them fail not because they were bad at anything, but the market just moved away from them.

他实际上并没有明确这么说，但我认为他暗示的是战略咨询领域中一个真实的道理。

And what he he doesn't actually say this I think, but what he is actually implying is something that's true in strategy consulting.

这是不可能的。

It is impossible.

当今世界上没有任何分析工具。

There's no analytic tool in the world today.

完全没有。

None.

无论任何公司怎么说，当今世界上没有任何分析工具能够以高度确定性预测哪些市场将在未来占据主导地位。

No matter what any firm says, there's no analytic tool in the world today that can determine with a high degree of certainty which markets will dominate in the future.

你现在可能在想，这并不对。

Now you may be thinking, well, that's not true.

我的意思是，我可以做一个复合年增长率分析，来看看市场是如何增长的。

I mean, I can do a, you know, compound annual growth analysis to see how market is growing.

我可以做这个，可以做那个，但你不妨仔细想想这一点。

I can do x, I can do y, but think of just think about that for a second.

对吧？

Right?

你知道，即使一个市场现在正在增长，也不意味着明天不会出现某种变化颠覆这个市场。

You know, just because a market is growing now doesn't mean something will cannot come along tomorrow and change that market.

9·11事件发生后，摧毁了多个市场。

Nine eleven came along and wiped out several markets.

对吧？

Right?

油价暴跌正在摧毁多个市场。

The oil crash is wiping out several markets.

在科技领域，你根本不知道谁正躲在某个地下室里，酝酿出一款会颠覆你的产品。

In technology, you don't know who's sitting in a basement somewhere that's gonna create a product that's gonna derail you.

所以我想要强调的是，你无法绝对确定，事实上我甚至可以说，你无法以很高的确定性预测市场将如何演变。

So the point I'm trying to make here is that you cannot know with absolute certainty, in fact I would say you cannot know with a high degree of certainty how markets would evolve.

没有任何顾问，世界上没有人能预测这一点。

No consultant, no one in the world can predict that.

如果我们能预测这些，那人类早就都成亿万富翁了，对吧？但我们做不到。

If we could predict that, man would be really rich people, right, but we cannot do that.

但事实上，企业战略的一个目标就是帮助客户判断市场将走向何方，我们会寻找趋势。

But actually, one of the goals of corporate strategy is to help a client determine where market is gonna go and we look for trends.

当然，潮流会来来去去，但有一些潜在的趋势是你试图利用的。

Now obviously, come and go, but there's some underlying trends that you're trying to leverage.

对吧？

Right?

比如，在这些国家电力短缺的情况下，我们可以相当确定地说，在未来二十五年里，建设发电、输电和配电设施将是一个趋势，其成功概率高达95%。

Like for example, in this situation where, you know, these countries are running out of power, we can say with a high degree of certainty for the next twenty five years, building generation transmission distribution line is gonna be a trend that there's a 95% probability of panning out as we plan.

但我们不能说有100%的概率，因为政府可能会介入，取消该行业的监管，将其私有化并允许私营部门投资者进入，从而让这家公用事业公司被淘汰。

Now we can't say with a 100% probability because the government could come along and, you know, dismantle regulation in the sector, privatize it and allow private sector investors in and this utility gets cut out.

你无法预测市场，我诚恳地建议你读一读这本书。

You cannot predict markets, and I would honestly advise you to read the book.

对吧？

Right?

这是一本很棒的书。

It's a great book.

它教你企业战略中的其中一个，你知道的，两个核心问题。

It teaches you the one of the, you know, two problems in corporate strategy.

一个是选择目标函数：你希望成为什么？

One is picking the objective function, what do you wanna be?

而你想成为什么，部分取决于市场的发展方向。

And what do you wanna be is partly driven by where the market is going.

你不能说：我想成为世界上制造排放浓烟、噪音巨大、开车经过时能吵醒婴儿的内燃机的最伟大公司。

And you can't say, I wanna be the world's greatest company at making combustion engines that belch smoke and make so much noise that babies wake up when you drive by.

因为现实是，尽管你具备相应的技能、人力、知识和专利，但市场正在消失。

Because the reality is that while you have the competencies and the manpower to do that and the know how and the patents, the market is disappearing.

因此，企业战略的第一步是选择市场，然后决定如何安排目标函数，以最大化你在该市场中的地位。

So the first part of corporate strategy is you pick the market and then you decide how the objective function is going to be arranged to maximize your position in that market.

对吧？

Right?

显然，这是合乎逻辑的。

Obviously, that is logical.

所以当你进行企业战略工作时，要记住，首先要选择市场，然后再决定公司如何在该市场中竞争。

So when you are doing corporate strategy work, remember that you're picking a market first and then deciding how the company is gonna play in that market.

人们称之为市场进入战略，但这并不是市场进入战略。

People call this market entry strategy, but this is not market entry strategy.

在市场进入战略中，一家公司拥有出色的核心业务、核心能力和技能，并将这些优势带到一个新市场。

In market entry strategy, a company has a great core business, great core competency, great skills, and they are bringing those to a new market.

这才是市场进入战略。

That's market entry strategy.

在企业战略中，公司必须重新定义自己。

In corporate strategy, the company has to reinvent who it is.

要决定成为什么样的公司，以及是否值得成为那样的公司，你首先要选择市场，然后确定公司如何在该市场中扮演角色。

And to decide who it's going to be and whether it's worth being that person, you first pick the market and then you determine how the company is gonna be the person to play in that market.

这就是为什么这不属于市场进入战略。

That's why it's not market entry strategy.

所处的环境和变化根本无法相提并论，对吧？

The context, the changes are not comparable at all, right?

所以当你思考企业战略时，记住你总是先选择市场，而且你必须非常擅长选择市场。

So when you're thinking about corporate strategy, remember you're always picking a market first and you have to be pretty damn good at picking a market.

选择市场的方法是找到一个在未来十到十五年内被颠覆概率较低的趋势。

And the way you pick a market is you find a trend that has a low probability of disruption in the next ten to fifteen years.

我认为在某些领域，比如化妆品，这很难做到。

Now I would say that is difficult to do in some sectors like cosmetics.

其实化妆品并不难，但我觉得在科技领域这很难做到。

Well, actually not cosmetics, that's easy to do, but I would say in technology that's hard to do.

容易做到的行业是那些具有高进入壁垒的行业，比如修建水坝、发电站和矿山。

Sectors where it's easy to do is where you have high barriers to entry, building up dams, building up power stations, building up mines.

这很难。

You it's hard.

但这并非不可能。

It's not impossible.

我的意思是，你建了一个矿山，现在一切看起来都很顺利，但明年市场崩盘，油价暴跌，你就被困在澳大利亚的戈贡天然气田，而此时油气价格已经跌到盈亏平衡点的一半，你却无法脱身。

I mean, you build a mine, everything looks hunky dory now, but next year, the market collapses, oil prices collapse, and you're stuck with something called the Gorgon gas fields in Australia whereby the price of oil and gas is now half of what you needed to be to break even and you're stuck with it.

所以市场可能会消失。

So market can disappear.

但由于这些项目周期漫长，你希望市场在项目准备开始产气时能够消失后再恢复。

But because of the long bull times of these projects, you hope the market will disappear and recover by the time the project is ready to start pumping gas.

所以总结一下，记住企业战略项目总是由两个重要特征定义的。

So to recap, remember corporate strategy projects always are defined by two important characteristics.

对吧？

Right?

第一，你必须为客户选择一个市场。

One, you have to be picking a market for a client.

第二，当你加入这项研究时，目标函数可能并不明确。

Second, the objective function cannot be clear when you join the study.

如果目标函数已经给你了，而你只是在最大化它，那你就不是在做企业战略。

If the objective function is given to you and you're maximizing it, then you're not doing corporate strategy.

你可能只是在做市场进入策略、投资方案之类的事情，但这不是企业战略。

You're probably doing a, you know, a a market entry strategy, an investment case, or something like that, but it's not corporate strategy.

所以，一如既往，感谢大家收听这个播客。

So as always, thank you for listening to this podcast.

记住，这正在为电力行业研究的第四周做铺垫，我们在高管项目中会更详细地讲解这个内容。

Remember, it's build up to week four of the power sector study which we cover in much much more detail in the executive program.

据我最后统计，仅这个研究就有六百五十个视频，其他研究可能也有大约三百五十个左右。

I believe at last count there were six fifty videos just for this study and there's probably something like three fifty for the other studies as well.

所以，希望你们觉得这很有用。

So I hope you find this useful.

请随时向我更新你使用这些内容的情况，我很乐意回答你任何问题。

Keep me updated in terms of how you're using things, and I'll be more than happy to answer any questions you have.

今天的内容就到这里。

And that's it for today's episode.

希望你和我一样享受这期节目。

I hope you enjoyed it as much as I enjoyed doing the episode.

最后，我想提醒你，只有通过在 firmsconsulting.com 上注册我们的邮件列表，才能获得我们的特别优惠、专属定价以及内容样本。

Finally, I want you to remember that the only way to get access to our special offers, the only way to get our special pricing, and the only way to get samples of our content is to join the list on firmsconsulting.com.

这也是唯一能获取我们为内部成员提供的独家高级内容的方式。

It's the only way also to get access to our unique advanced content that we make available to insiders.

所以，如果你想抢先了解我们的内容、亲自体验一下，这里就是你要去的地方。

So if you're going to a sneak peek of things, test it out, see what's in there, this is the place to go.

最后，再次感谢你让我们成为全球最大的职业类播客频道之一，并实现了两百万次下载且仍在增长。

And finally, want to thank you again for making us one of the largest podcast channels around the world for careers and for the 2,000,000 downloads and counting.

感谢收听本期《策略技能》播客。

Thanks for listening to this episode of the Strategy Skills Podcast.

请在 firmsconsulting.com 订阅我们的邮件更新，及时了解我们最新的培训内容。

Stay up to date on all of our latest training by signing up for our email updates on firmsconsulting.com.

我们期待在下一期《策略技能播客》中帮助您提升战略思维、批判性思维、决策能力和沟通技巧。

We look forward to helping you develop your strategy, critical thinking, decision making, and communication skills next time here on the strategy skills podcast.