486 - 紧急播客：伊朗、以色列与迫在眉睫的毁灭

卡塔尔方面的消息来源在确认或否认这件事上，态度一直比较含糊，私下里他们不承认。

Qatar Qatari sources have been a little cagier when it comes to when it comes to confirm you're denying that off the record.

公开场合，他们是否认的。

On the record, they're denying it.

而且，这种事如果真的发生了，你也不一定会愿意谈论。

Also, it's the kind of thing that you wouldn't you wouldn't necessarily like talk about if it did happen.

但也有可能，这只是有人编造出来告诉塔克的。

It could also but it could also have been made up by somebody who told it to Tucker.

当然。

Sure.

就好像他们试图散布——可能是一个非常可靠的消息来源告诉了塔克，但那个可靠来源只是想借此传播错误信息、虚假信息和制造混乱。

Like they're trying to sow like it may have been a very credible source that told it to Tucker, but that credible source was just trying to so this so, you know, misinformation, disinformation, chaos.

是的。

Yeah.

在这种时刻，你听到的消息有90%最终会被证明是错误的，你知道，一年之后。

Moments like this, 90% of what you hear turns out to be proven incorrect, you know, a year you know, a year later.

所以我们现在正处于那个时刻，会有大量信息满天飞。

So we're we're in that the heat at that moment where there's gonna be a lot of lot flying around.

但是，你知道，这...我...所以我不确定。

But, you know, it's you know, it's I I so I don't know.

关于这一点，我能补充的大概就是这些了。

That's about that's about what I can add to that.

那么现在杰里米有什么情况？

What are the now that Jeremy had

还有一件事需要继续调查。

said another thing that needs to continue to be investigated.

沙特阿拉伯并不是，你知道，比如说，如果沙特阿拉伯真的相信沙特阿美公司遭到了伊朗的袭击，我想沙特阿拉伯会进行大规模报复。

Saudi Arabia is is not, you know, if if, for example, if Saudi Arabia genuinely believed that Saudi Aramco was targeted by Iran, I would imagine there'd be a massive retaliation from Saudi Arabia.

你看到那个了吗？

Have you seen that?

我认为这一点很重要

I think that's an important

是的。

yeah.

你还没看过那个。

You haven't seen that.

对吧？

Right?

我觉得那是，嗯，

I think that's an yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

而且我认为这是一个重要的见解，它确实关系到沙特阿拉伯的信念。

And I think that's an important insight that that does go to what Saudi Arabia believes.

因为我觉得你说得对。

Because I I think you're right.

如果沙特阿拉伯真的相信伊朗

If Saudi Arabia genuinely believed that Iran

是的。

Yeah.

如果他们真的袭击了，他们的反应会完全不同。

Had hit it, they they would be reacting in a different way.

当然，100%。

Well, 100%.

关于塔克·卡尔森这件事，蒂姆，你知道，我记得在多哈论坛期间塔克·卡尔森曾到访多哈，当时的感觉就像迈克尔·杰克逊在他事业巅峰时出现在某个地方。

On the Tucker Carlson on the Tucker Carlson issue, Tim, like, you know, I know that I I was in Doha for the Doha Forum when Tucker Carlson, you know, appeared there, and it was like, you know, it was like Michael Jackson appearing at the height of his fame somewhere.

你知道吗？

You know?

他在那里是个超级大人物。

Like, he is a massive figure there.

他在那里买了房产。

He's purchased property there.

对。

Right.

你明白吗？

You know?

而且塔克·卡尔森，他现在是全球知名的，是的。

And and Tucker Carlson, he is he is globally famous right now Yeah.

并且人脉深厚。

And deeply connected.

他现在会晤的是，你知道的，海湾地区的权力核心人物。

He meets with with the, you know, the epicenters of power in The Gulf right now.

这一点毫无疑问。

There's no question about that.

所以我不相信塔克·卡尔森是在凭空捏造。

So I don't believe Tucker Carlson just made this up.

瑞安说的有可能。

It's possible what Ryan said.

有人向他提了些什么。

Somebody mentioned something to him.

也许这有点像是在试探性地放出某种消息。

Maybe it was sort of like floating something.

但我们要记住，以色列有着长达数十年的历史，从事各种秘密行动、假旗行动、暗杀和爆炸活动，然后试图将这些行为归咎于其他组织。

But let's remember that Israel has a decades long history of engaging in all sorts of covert operations, in false flag operations, in assassinations, in bombings that they then try to blame on other groups.

以色列在黎巴嫩和其他地方进行假旗爆炸事件有着悠久的历史。

There's a long history of Israel doing false flag bombings in Lebanon and elsewhere.

所以，再次强调，这属于我们需要追查的范畴。

So, again, it's in the category of we need to pursue it.

我们需要调查一下这件事。

We need to look into it.

但是，你知道，摩萨德特工在这些国家四处活动的想法，一点都不令人震惊或意外。

But, you know, the the idea that there's Mossad agents running around these countries is, like, not at all a a shocker or a or a surprise.

你知道，如果他们没在做这些事反而会让人惊讶。

You know, it's it would be surprising if they weren't doing these things.

问题是，是他们的特工被捕了并且被掩盖起来，还是有人故意把这个消息透露给塔克，因为他们想达到某种我们目前还不完全理解的目的？

The question is, were they were their agents arrested and it's being covered up, or was this floated to Tucker because they wanted to achieve some purpose that we don't quite understand right now?

我不知道。

I don't know.

是的。

Yeah.

但以色列长期以来一直有做这类事情的历史。

But Israel has a long history of doing this stuff.

瑞安？

Ryan?

另外，如果他们真的逮捕了特工，他们也不会愿意——想象一下他们公开承认此事需要付出多大的代价。

Also, if if they did arrest if they did arrest agents, they would not like, imagine what it would take for them to say that publicly.

比如，作为美国的盟友，沙特阿拉伯和卡塔尔要公开承认‘是的，这是真的’。

Like, for allies of The United States, Saudi Arabia and Qatar to say publicly, yes, this is true.

我们逮捕了这些摩萨德特工。

We arrested these Mossad agents.

这将会是一次重大的外交性质的违规行为。

Like, that would be a significant diplomatic kind of breach.

所以，外交上的做法就是否认。

Like, so the diplomatic thing to do is to deny it.

因此否认是值得报道的，但这并不一定能说明太多问题。

So the denials are are worth reporting, but it it doesn't necessarily tell you a whole lot.

当你审视时间的时候

When you look at the time

蒂姆，我能简短地跟你说一件事吗？

Tim, can I tell you one one brief?

哦，请讲。

Oh, go ahead.

是的。

Yes.

不。

No.

说吧。

Go.

说吧。

Go.

告诉我。

Tell me.

不。

No.

我只是想给你讲一个关于以色列的故事。

I just wanted to tell you one one one one story about Israel.

你知道，在九十年代，哈马斯的领导人是一个名叫哈立德·马沙尔的人，他当时在约旦设有基地。

You know, in the nineteen nineties, the head of Hamas was a guy named Khalid Mashal, and he was he was based in Jordan at the time.

然后他公开露面了。

And he comes out.

他开车送孩子们去上班然后上学，然后和保镖一起下了车。

He he drive he's driving his kids to work and then to school, and he gets out of the car with his bodyguards.

然后有两个伪装成游客的人走过来，往他耳朵里喷了某种东西，那是一种毒药。

And these two guys posing as tourists come up and they spray something in his ear, and it was a it was a a poison.

这使哈利德·马沙尔陷入昏迷。

And it sends Khalid Mashal into a coma.

随后展开追捕，他的保镖和约旦警方将那两人制服，结果发现他们是摩萨德特工。

And then there was a pursuit, and his bodyguards and Jordanian police end up tackling and getting the guys, and it turns out that they were Mossad agents.

约旦国王当时——这是一个公开的故事。

The king of Jordan then and this is a public story.

人们可以查阅到这件事。

People can read about this.

已经有关于此事的纪录片。

There's been documentaries made about it.

约旦国王当时表示，我们要取消与以色列的条约，并且如果内塔尼亚胡——当时他是九十年代的总理——不交出解药，我们就处决这些特工。

The king of Jordan then says, we're gonna cancel our treaty with Israel, and we're going to execute these agents if Netanyahu he was prime minister at the time in the nineties.

如果内塔尼亚胡不交出解药来救活哈利德·马沙尔，摩萨德负责人就会从以色列乘飞机前往约旦，亲自送交解药以挽救哈利德·马沙尔的生命。

If Netanyahu doesn't give us the antidote to resurrect Khalid Mashal, the head of Mossad gets on a plane from Israel, flies to Jordan to deliver the antidote to save Khalid Mashal's life.

直到今天，哈利德·马沙尔仍然活着。

And Khalid Mashal is still alive to this day.

我几个月前刚采访过他，你知道的。

Just interviewed him, you know, some a couple a couple of months ago.

但以色列能够做到的事情，正是最著名、最广为人知的事件之一。

But the the nature of what Israel is able to do, that's one of the most sort of famous known episodes.

以色列在阿拉伯世界有深入的渗透，有很多案例中他们开展行动，而美国却一无所知。

Israel has deep penetration throughout the Arab world, and there are many cases where they conduct operations and they can't America.

世界从未察觉。

World never

这里根本没有渗透。

No penetration here.

这正是我引以为傲的地方。

And that's what I'm proud of.

你知道，其他国家都上当了，但我们没有。

You know, these other countries fell for it, but us, we didn't.

我们要是上当了，那该有多容易啊？

And how easy would it have been for us to fall for it?

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让我问你。

Let me ask you.

在你看来，通过诸如某种程度的勒索或胁迫等手段来控制政客，这扮演了什么角色——也许没有角色，也许有些角色，或者我不知道它占多大比例。

What role in your estimation, and maybe maybe that's no role or maybe it's some role or maybe it's, I don't know what percentage of a role it is, is controlling politicians through things like blackmail or coercion of some degree.

显然，APAC花费了大量资金。

Obviously, APAC spends a lot of money.

但后来这些文件曝光，显示杰弗里·爱泼斯坦与全球许多政府高层人士有联系，比如以色列前总理就住在他家里。

But then we have these files come out that show that that Jeffrey Epstein is in contact with a lot of very highly placed people in governments all over the world, but the ex prime minister of Israel's living in his house.

有报道称，我相信以色列政府为杰弗里·爱泼斯坦在纽约的联排别墅安装了安保系统。

It comes out that an Israeli that I believe that the Israeli government, this was reported, put a security system in Jeffrey Epstein's New York townhouse.

这是真的。

This is true.

这不是阴谋论。

This is not a conspiracy.

那栋联排别墅经常有我们社会中最富有、最有权力和最具影响力的人物光顾。

That townhouse is being frequented by some of the wealthiest, most powerful, and most influential people in our society.

此外，这个人还在新墨西哥州一个偏僻的地方拥有一座岛屿和一个牧场。

As well, the man has an island and a ranch in the middle of nowhere in New Mexico.

这个人是个恋童癖者，是个人口贩子。

This man is a is a pedophile, is is is is a human trafficker.

从你的报道中，以非常清醒的视角来看，他显然在组织这些聚会和活动，让非常有权力的人士参与其中。

He's clearly when you look at these documents arranging these parties and events where very powerful people are going from your reporting in a very sober minded way.

那种控制系统，你认为以色列是否曾经或正在以某种方式运用，来从某些政客那里获取特定结果？

Does that type of control system, is that something you think Israel has employed or is employing in in any way to sort of get certain results from certain politicians?

我的意思是，以色列人确实有做这类事情的历史。

I mean, they the Israelis have a history of doing that sort of thing for sure.

在这种情况下，与爱泼斯坦的联系，在我看来，可能是它影响特朗普试图转移话题的方式。

The the link to Epstein in this case, to me, may be the way that it influenced Trump to try to change the subject.

没错。

Right.

你知道，他尝试了那个，我认为委内瑞拉行动，你知道，并不是试图翻过那一页并摆脱它，但你知道，那件事只持续了大概十二小时，公众就又回到，好吧，那挺有意思的。

You know, he tried the I I think the Venezuela operation had you know, wasn't wasn't an attempt to kind of turn the page on that and get it off, but it you know, that that lasted like twelve hours and the public was back to, okay, that's interesting.

让我们看看，让我们再多翻翻这些爱泼斯坦的文件。

Let's look at let's look through some more of these Epstein files.

所以我确实，我确实想知道，如果没有爱泼斯坦丑闻本身，特朗普，你知道，是否还有那种动力去推进这件事。

So I do I do wonder absent the Epstein scandal itself, whether Trump, you know, has the kind of motivation to to carry through with this.

这件事本身有其自身的逻辑和动力。

It has its own logic and and motivation to it.

内塔尼亚胡前几天说过，这是他四十年来一直渴望的事情。

Netanyahu said the other day that this is something he's been yearning for for forty years.

而且他们从那时起就一直致力于向美国施压以实现这一目标。

And and they have been working towards pressuring The United States into it since then.

所以单凭这一点，你知道，本身就具有巨大的吸引力。

And so like that that alone, you know, has an enormous kind of gravitational pull to it.

但我认为特朗普将会非常失望，因为我认为当战争结束时——如果我们还活在这个星球上的话——我们会立刻重新关注那些文件，伙计。

But I I but and I think Trump's gonna be sorely disappointed because I think when the war ends, if the, you know, if the war ends with us still alive on this planet, we're going right back to those files, guy.

就像，我们还没忘记这件事。

Like, we haven't forgotten about this.

杰里米，你能谈谈这个吗？

Jeremy, can you speak to that?

那么，杰里米，再补充一点，根据你对杰弗里·爱泼斯坦这类人的理解——当然，我并不是在指控贾里德·库什纳是人口贩子。

And then, Jeremy, also adding to that, from your understanding of someone like Jeffrey Epstein, now I'm not accusing Jared Kushner of being a human trafficker, obviously.

但当你审视杰弗里·爱泼斯坦的所作所为，再看看贾里德·库什纳的行为，不管你想怎么称呼它。

But when you look at what Jeffrey Epstein was doing and you look at what Jared Kushner was doing, sort of being a, you know, whatever you wanna call it.

对吗？

Right?

就像一个牵线人，把所有这些人都拉到谈判桌前，试图安排各种情境来达成特定结果，某种程度上与政府合作，但又游离于政府之外。

Like a rainmaker putting all these people at the table, trying to arrange scenarios to get certain results, working, sort of with government, but also outside of government.

如果说贾里德·库什纳以类似爱泼斯坦的方式运作，以维持某些关系、建立其他关系，并增加全球棋局上特定结果发生的可能性，这想法会完全疯狂吗？

Would it be completely crazy to say that Jared Kushner is working in an Epstein like fashion to to maintain certain relationships and to build other relationships and to increase the likelihood that certain outcomes happen on a global chessboard.

你认为库什纳是那样的人物吗？还是我夸大其词了？

Do you see Kushner as a figure like that, or am I overstating it?

你知道，我我我认为其中一个最大的丑闻就是那些摆在明面上的秘密。

You know, I I I think one of the, you know, one of the biggest scandals is what's hidden in plain sight.

我认为，像爱泼斯坦档案以及杰弗里·爱泼斯坦与所有这些权势人物的关系这类事件，而且你知道，瑞安在这方面对以色列关联的报道比任何人都多。

I think that, you know, a story like the Epstein files and Jeffrey Epstein's relationships with all of these ultra powerful people and, you know, Ryan has done more reporting than anyone on the Israel connection on this.

你知道，这确实引人遐想，但之所以如此具有毁灭性，部分原因在于它揭示的甚至不是一个秘密阴谋。

You know, it captures the imagination, but part of why it's so damning is that it's it's it's indicative of something that doesn't that that isn't even a secret conspiracy.

显而易见的是，我们现在对伊朗开战的原因在于美国政治体系的运作方式。

That what's hidden in plain sight is that the reason that we're at war against Iran right now is because of the way that The US political system is arranged.

这是因为民主党精英阶层与共和党内最激进派系之间存在的政策趋同性。

It's because of the sameness of policy that exists among the elites of the Democratic party and and the kind of most vicious elements of the Republican party.

这极大地表明了以色列在诸如一个国家决定开战这样敏感议题上的影响力，正如你之前提到的，国务卿不慎说漏了嘴，承认我们确实是为了以色列而开战，之后又不得不收回言论。

This is an enormous indicator of the influence that Israel has over an issue as sensitive of the decision of a state to go to war, where you have, as you mentioned earlier, the secretary of state mistakenly saying the quiet part out loud that we we did, in fact, go to war for Israel, and then he has to, you know, walk it back later.

然后特朗普不得不编造出这番荒谬的声明，说什么美国四十七年来一直处于需要先发制人打击伊朗的状态。

And then Trump has to concoct this ridiculous statement, you know, about how he he the The US has been in a state of, needing to preempt Iran for forty seven years.

但那些明摆着却被忽视的事实，在某种程度上比爱泼斯坦文件更令人震惊。

But what's what's hidden in plain sight is in a way more damning than the Epstein files.

这是因为我们现有的体制造就了当前掌权的这类人物。

It's that we have a system that produces the kinds of characters that are in power right now.

也就是说，在公开场合，米里亚姆·阿德尔森能够收买美国的外交政策并使其得以实施。

That that that in the open, have Miriam Adelson being able to purchase American foreign policy and get it done.

所以才会出现贾里德·库什纳这样的人，我认为你确实说到点子上了。

That you can have a Jared Kushner, and I think you I think you're you're nailing it there.

他现在堪称整个美国政府的头号‘问题解决者’，因为特朗普是总统。

He is the fixer extraordinaire right now for the US government as a whole because Trump is the president.

企业权力与政府之间的纽带，与海湾国家的关系，与以色列的关系，全球范围内的政治干预，以及他们公然对美国宪法发动政变的方式，这一切都超出了迪克·切尼最疯狂的想象。

And the nexus of corporate power and government, the relationships with the Gulf Countries, the relationships with Israel, the political interference around the world, and then the the the way that they have sort of conducted a coup d'etat in plain sight against the American constitution, it's like beyond Dick Cheney's wildest dreams.

迪克·切尼和唐纳德·拉姆斯菲尔德一生都在遵循错误的规则行事。

Dick Cheney and Donald Rumsfeld spent their entire lives playing by the wrong set of rules.

他们想这么做，但却犯了一个巨大的错误，以为自己必须遵守这些规则。

They wanted to do this, but they made the huge mistake of actually believing they needed to follow the rules.

特朗普彻底粉碎了这种幻觉，你根本不需要阅读埃普斯坦的文件就能看清这一点。

Trump has shattered that illusion, and he did you don't have to read an Epstein file to see it.

它一直被隐藏着。

It's hidden.

它再也不是什么秘密了。

It's it's hidden nowhere anymore.

它就明明白白地摆在眼前。

It's just out in the open.

那我们的反对力量又是什么呢？

And what do we have as an opposition?

哈基姆·杰弗里斯？

Hakim Jeffries?

查克·舒默？

Chuck Schumer?

他们到底在做什么？

What what are what are they doing?

对。

Right.

你知道，特朗普在嘲笑他们。

You know, Trump laughs at them.

特朗普在操控这些人的游戏。

Trump's running the deck on these people.

那么，查克·舒默或哈基姆·杰弗里斯主要反对伊朗政权更迭吗？

Well, is Chuck Schumer or Hakim Jeffries principally opposed to regime change in Iran?

感觉不像这样。

It doesn't feel like that.

不。

No.

不。

No.

不。

No.

不。

No.

不。

No.

我的意思是，对了。

I mean, bingo.

就像这样，对。

Like Right.

不。

No.

我的意思是，查克·舒默这一生，整个政治生涯都渴望看到这件事发生。

I mean, Chuck Schumer, his whole life, has wanted to see his whole political career has wanted to see this happen.

我的意思是，瑞安和我最近做了一份报告。

I mean, Ryan and I did a report recently.

我的意思是，瑞安应该谈谈这个，但我们做了一份报告，显示即使在去年六月，舒默和其他民主党人也看到了特朗普试图全面发动政权更迭战争的可能性所带来的机遇。

I mean, Ryan Ryan should speak to this, but we did a report that was showing that even last June, Schumer and other Democrats saw opportunity in the possibility that Trump would try to go all in in a regime change war.

而且，我的意思是，瑞安可以接着说，因为这真是个惊人的故事。

And, I mean, Ryan can pick it up because it's kind of an amazing story.

我们刚提到舒默搞了整个‘塔可特朗普’的把戏，是的。

We have just he Schumer did the whole Taco Trump thing Yeah.

试图挑衅特朗普发动战争。

Trying to trying to taunt Trump into the war.

于是，一些反战团体给舒默写了一封信，说：嘿，老兄。

And so a bunch of anti war groups sent Schumer a letter saying, hey, man.

我们明白。

Like, we get it.

开玩笑地针对特朗普固然有趣，但咱们别真去激他挑起第三次世界大战。

Like, it's fun to score points against Trump, but let's not kinda goad him into World War three.

咱们在这件事上还是放松点吧。

Let let's let's relax on that one.

为了让大家更清楚，我再重申一遍。

This is one of the most power just to just to restate for people.

这是来自纽约的最有影响力的民主党参议员之一，查克·舒默，他就像在挑衅特朗普，说你总是临阵退缩。

This is one of the most powerful Democratic senators from New York, Chuck Schumer, kind of taunting Trump like you always chicken out.

你不敢在伊朗搞政权更迭。

You're not gonna follow through on regime change in Iran.

是的。

Yeah.

这些团体写给舒默的这封信，引发了一通电话，是舒默的一位高级外交政策顾问与其中一家反战组织的负责人之间的通话。

And so that that letter that these groups sent to Schumer leads to a phone call between a top foreign policy aid for Schumer and one of the leaders of one of these anti war groups.

她对他说：你得明白，他同时也受到党内同僚的巨大压力，因为参议院里有很多民主党人非常希望看到一场政权更迭战争。

And she says to him, look, what you have to understand is that he's under a lot of pressure from the caucus too because there are a ton of Democrats in the Senate who really want to see a regime change war.

他们非常憎恨伊朗。

They they hate Iran.

他们希望军方能推翻伊朗政权。

They want the military to take out Iran.

但他们也清楚，美国民众已经厌倦了这些战争。

But they also know that the American people are done with these wars.

因此，这将造成极其严重的损害。

And so it would be extremely damaging.

但这也会因此对特朗普造成极大的损害。

But it will also then therefore be extremely damaging to Trump.

所以他们最痛恨的两个敌人，阿亚图拉和特朗普，你看，都会受到打击。

So their two worst enemies, the Ayatollah and Trump, you know, both take a hit.

所以他们想，实际上我们——她说，舒默他并不相信那一点，但他承受着来自民主党同僚的巨大压力，那些未具名的民主党人相信这一点。

So they're like, so we're actually and she said, well, Schumer, he doesn't believe that, but he's under a lot of pressure from Democrats, unnamed Democrats who believe that.

但根据我们的报道，这基本上概括了许多民主党议员在此事上的立场。

But from our reporting like that, that basically captures a lot of the democratic lawmakers position on this.

对。

Right.

他们想要这场战争，并且希望由特朗普来发动并承担其后果。

That they want this war and they want Trump to be the one that wages it and takes the hit

为此。

for it.

并因此在政治上失利。

And loses politically for it.

我听说斯蒂芬·米勒是这场战争的极力支持者。

I have heard that Stephen Miller was a huge proponent of this war.

不知道你有没有听说过这个说法。

I don't know if you've heard that.

那是幕后的斯蒂芬·米勒。

That Stephen Miller behind the scenes.

是谁？

Who was?

斯蒂芬·米勒。

Stephen Miller.

哦哦，有意思。

Oh oh, interesting.

在幕后是这场战争的大力支持者。

Behind the scenes was a big proponent of this war.

有报道称，JD·万斯——他某种程度上被塑造成孤立主义者，曾上过我的节目并表示，你知道，我们犯了很多错误，比如进入伊拉克和阿富汗这些国家，发动政权更迭战争。

It's been reported that JD Vance, who's kinda marketed as an isolationist, who came on my show and said, you know, we've made a lot of mistakes by, you know, going into these countries like Iraq and Afghanistan and having regime change wars.

据报道他说过，如果你要这么做，就要做得大而快，我相信原话是这样说的，或者说是要打得狠、行动快。

It was reported that he said if you're gonna do this, go big and go fast, I believe was the quote, or hit hard and go fast.

你的报道是否表明白宫内部存在任何冲突？

Any does any of your reporting suggest any internal conflicts in the White House?

显然，像图尔西·加巴德这样的人——我觉得没人会听她的——她更像是孤立主义者。

Obviously, somebody like Tulsi Gabbard, which I don't think anyone listens to, again, said she's you know, was was more of an isolationist.

JD·万斯是被包装的，他也把自己包装成那样的人，而且我确实相信JD·万斯，他说的很多话在某种程度上是一贯的，他在我的节目上也这么说过。

JD Vance was marketed, and he marketed himself as someone who and I and I do believe JD Vance, a lot of what he said has been somewhat consistent about and he said it on my show.

他上我的节目时说过我们不应该这么做，但他们现在却在这么做。

He came on my show, he said we shouldn't be doing this, and yet they're doing it.

嗯哼。

Mhmm.

所以，我的意思是，听着。

So and I mean, listen.

我知道有很多人会说这些人是政客，尤其是JD·万斯什么都不相信，这很有可能。

I I know there's a lot of people out there that'll say that these people are politicians, and especially JD Vance doesn't believe in anything, and that's very possible.

但你的报道对白宫内部的动态有何说法？

But what is your reporting about the dynamics in the White House?

是的。

Yeah.

你知道吗，前几天我和丹尼尔·戴维斯聊过，他是一位职业军人，原本应该是图尔西·加巴德在这届政府中的副手之一。

You know, I the other day, I was talking to Daniel Davis, who's a, you know, career military, and he was supposed to be one of Tulsi Gabbard's deputies in this administration.

然后共和党和以色列游说团体就炸了锅，因为他曾批评加沙战争，并对以色列说过一些批评性言论。

And then Republicans and the Israel lobby went ballistic because he had been a critic of the Gaza war and had said critical things about Israel.

他是一位功勋卓著的职业军官，原本将被安排负责向唐纳德·特朗普呈送总统每日简报。

And he's a career decorated military officer, and he was gonna be put in the position of presenting the presidential daily brief to Donald Trump.

这这正好发生在特朗普政府刚上任的时候。

This this just happened right at the beginning of this Trump administration.

所以他们撤回了对他的提名。

So then they withdrew his nomination.

所以丹尼尔·戴维斯本可以成为一个真正客观独立的声音，同时也是一位长期的军事思想家。

So Daniel Davis would have been, you know, a real voice of kind of objectivity and independent thought, but also, you know, a long time military thinker.

他说他仍然与一些人保持着联系。

And he was saying that he still maintains contact with some people.

这是我最近和他交谈时了解到的，他确实与一些人保持着联系。

This was just recently I spoke to him, that he maintains contact with some people.

他说，在涉及国家安全，特别是伊朗问题的核心圈子里，只剩下少数几个头脑清醒的人了，而且有一种氛围，任何人只要提出不同意见，就不受欢迎。

He said there's only, like, a handful of of sane people left in the inner circle when it comes to anything having to do with national security or specifically with this Iran and that there's a vibe that anybody who sort of speaks up, it's not welcome to sort of be giving contrary views.

你会被视为不忠诚。

It's that you're gonna be viewed as disloyal.

这就像你身处某种威权独裁统治中，害怕民主德国的汉努卡会因为你说错话而罢黜你。

It's it's like you're in a kind of authoritarian dictatorship, and you're, like, afraid that Hanukkah from the democratic German Republic is gonna, like, oust you if you say the wrong thing.

这完全违背了在处理敏感问题（比如发动战争，尤其是基于无稽之谈的这类战争）时不应排斥批评声音的理念。

That that's so that's totally sort of counter to the idea that when it comes to sensitive issues like waging war, especially this kind of war based on nonsense, that that you don't want critical voices.

我的意思是，图尔西·加巴德体现了MAGA运动中孤立主义派系在特朗普第二届政府掌权后的遭遇。

I mean, Tulsi Gabbard is the embodiment of what happened to the isolationist wing of the MAGA movement when it came to power and Trump in this second administration.

这些人已经完全被边缘化了。

These guys are completely sidelined.

正如你所说，这简直像个笑话。

As you said, it's like a joke.

前几天，还有另一位属于孤立主义阵营的人，埃尔德里奇·科尔比，是的。

The other day, you had another another guy who falls into that isolationist category, Eldridge Eldridge Colby Yes.

谁是国防部助理部长。

Who is the assistant secretary of defense.

他后来怎么样了？

What happened to him?

是的。

Yeah.

所以布里奇。

So Bridge.

布里奇，我的意思是，我也，你知道，我们，当我

So Bridge, I mean, I also I mean, you know, we, when I was

总统竞选期间，我不会上这个节目。

the president the campaign, I wouldn't come on the show.

播客。

Podcast.

所以我几年前采访过他，我采访过他。

So I I interviewed him I interviewed him years ago.

我和他进行过一场辩论。

He and I had a had a had debate.

那是在他加入特朗普政府之前，不过我们也在很多事情上意见一致。

This is before he was in the Trump administration, but we also agreed on a bunch of things.

科尔·布里奇·科尔比反对在中东的所有这些胡闹。

Cole Bridge Colby was against all this nonsense in The Middle East.

他是个

He's a

对华鹰派。

China hawk.

进入了五角大楼。

Comes into the Pentagon.

前几天，是的。

The other day yeah.

他是个对华鹰派，这就是我们当时争论的焦点，但他也因此以对华鹰派著称，不过在那些无休止的战争和中东政策上，他其实是个非常现实的孤立主义者。

He's a China hawk, and that's where he and I were arguing about this stuff, but that's he's known as a China hawk, but he's a very realistic sort of isolationist when it comes to these forever wars and Middle East policy.

前几天他在国会听证会上作证，多年来他一直公开反对在伊朗发动政权更迭战争。

He sits in front of a congressional hearing the other day, and he is explicitly on record for years of being against a regime change war in Iran.

当被问及他之前的言论时，他却支支吾吾，含糊其辞。

And he gets asked about his previous comments, and he just fumbled around.

他甚至无法回答。你可以播放一段又一段图尔西·加巴德清晰阐述这类战争问题的视频片段，然后让她来负责。

He couldn't even answer You could play clip after clip of Tulsi Gabbard explaining very articulately what's wrong with these kinds of wars, and they put her in charge.

她是国家情报总监。

She's the director of national intelligence.

她跟这些事情毫无关系。

She has nothing to do with this stuff.

如果允许她公开发言，哦，天哪。

And if she's allowed to speak publicly, oh, boy.

她必须服从党的路线。

She needs to toe the party line.

这就是本届政府的现实。

That's the reality of this administration.

MAGA运动需要明白，整件事都是一场史诗级的骗局。

The the MAGA movement needs to understand the whole thing was an epic sham.

本届政府内部不存在孤立主义派系。

There is no isolationist wing of this administration.

根本就没有什么美国优先。

There is no America first.

现在是以色列优先，是特朗普家族生意优先。

This is Israel first right now, and it's Trump family business first.

布里格斯·科尔比有意思的地方在于，去年夏天，政客网站还在对他进行抹黑报道，嗯哼。

So what's interesting about Briggs Colby is this is a guy who last summer, they are running hit pieces in the politico on him Mhmm.

因为他反对继续为乌克兰战争提供资金。

Because he is opposed to the continuing of funding of the Ukraine war.

而且他对此相当直言不讳。

And he was was sort of outspoken about that.

现在我知道，确实有重要人物——亿万富翁、媒体人士——给特朗普打电话要求解雇这家伙。

Now I know for a fact that serious people, billionaires, media people were calling Trump going fire this guy.

我们不想要他。

We don't want him.

就像，真心实意地，你懂吗？

Like, genuine you know?

而且我确实知道——虽然不是亲眼所见，但听人们说，这家伙对光谱那一端更多新保守主义意识形态驱动的人来说是个眼中钉，他们当时都说这家伙必须走人。

And I and I and I know that not for a fact for a fact, like, wasn't in the room, but, like, people saying, like, this guy was a thorn in the side of more of the neoconservative ideologically driven people on that end of the spectrum, they were going, this guy's gotta go.

而现在他坐在那里，已经完全改变了他的观点。

And and now he's sitting there, and he's he's completely changed his opinion.

是的。

Yep.

对。

Yeah.

而内部真正出现的反对声音主要来自军方，特别是，你知道的，丹·凯恩将军，特朗普喜欢称之为'惹是生非'，因为他们对这场战争有实质性的担忧。

And the only opposition that really came internally came from the military and particularly, you know, general Dan Cain, Trump loves to call raising Cain, who because they had material concerns about the war.

因为，而且，如果你在阅读空投点情报或类似信息，或者关注伊朗在战争爆发前几个月发表的任何言论。

Because and if if, you know, if you're reading drop site or what, you know, like listening to anything that Iran was saying in the months leading up to the war.

他们当时说，如果你们来招惹我们，我们就会把这场战争变成一场地区性战争。

They were saying, if you come for us, we're gonna turn this into a regional war.

没错。

Right.

我们从之前的冲突中学到了教训，必须比以往更猛烈地打击。

And we have learned the lesson of the previous conflicts that we need to hit much harder than we hit before.

他们明明用英语大声说出来了，只要有人愿意听就能听到。

Like, they were saying it out loud in English for anybody who wanted to listen to it.

所以，凯恩在内部分享这些评估，说这就是他们打算做的。

And so, Kane was internally sharing these assessments like this is what they're gonna do.

我们有个价值十亿美元的雷达设施就在这里。

We got, hey, man, we got a billion dollar radar installation right here.

这是雷达。

It's radar.

我们没法把它埋到地下。

We can't put it underground.

他们可以击中它。

They could hit it.

你知道，我们还有这些爱国者导弹系统。

You know, we got these Patriot missile batteries.

他们能击中那些目标。

They can hit those.

比如我们所有这些基地都在他们的弹道导弹射程之内。

Like we have all of these bases that are within range of their ballistic missiles.

他们能击中那些目标。

They can hit those.

我们花了几十年时间，你知道，建立起这套精密的军事基础设施，基本上是为了控制中东，并且能够控制全球贸易。

We've spent decades, you know, building up this elaborate military infrastructure to basically control the Middle East and can to control global commerce.

而我们却因为这场战争让所有这些都面临风险。

And we're putting all that at risk over this over this war.

当伊朗人在谈判桌上基本上提供了你们所要求的一切时。

When the Iranians are offering you basically everything you're asking for at the negotiating table.

所以唯一的反对意见来自那些试图说明实际情况真相的人。

So the only opposition was coming from like people who were like, let me just tell you like what the reality of this situation is.

但其他所有人都表示不同意。

But everyone else was like, no man.

就好像他们会投降，或者你把他推倒，你就会成为历史性人物。

Like they're gonna surrender or you push him over, you'll be a historic figure.

这将会是不可思议的。

It's it's gonna be incredible.

然后他们和他一起选择了，这将会很美好。

And they and he went with the, it's it's gonna be beautiful.

我的意思是，以色列最近表示，除了伊朗之外，他们认为土耳其是最大的威胁。

I mean, Israel's recently signaled that outside of Iran, they feel that Turkey is their biggest threat.

是的。

Yeah.

土耳其是北约成员国。

Turkey is a NATO country.

这简直是疯了。

This is psychotic.

我的意思是，美国到底要到什么时候才会放弃以色列这种攻击所有他们认为当前或潜在威胁国家的对外政策。

I mean, you know, at what point does The United States Of America divest from this Israeli foreign policy of attacking any and all countries they feel might be a current or potential threat.

我的意思是，这完全是布什主义的先发制人战争，是我在两千年代初成长过程中目睹的我一生中最大的外交政策失败。以色列似乎对伊朗以及现在对土耳其都持有这种外交政策立场。

I mean, it's this is straight up Bush doctrine preemptive war, the biggest foreign policy failures of my lifetime that I witnessed growing up in the early two thousands, Israel seems to have that foreign policy position about Iran and now about Turkey.

当你听到——我忘了是谁说的，你们比我更了解——但有人出来说过，我不确定是谁说的，但基本上有人表示除了伊朗之外，我们将土耳其视为对我们生存最大的潜在生存威胁。

When you hear, and I forget who said it, you guys know more than me, but someone came out and said, and I don't know if it was I forget who said it, but basically somebody said outside of Iran, we're looking at Turkey as the biggest potential existential threat to our existence.

他们为什么要在这种时候公开说这种话？

Why would they come out and say that at this point?

康纳，你知道这话是谁说的吗？

Connor, do you know who said that?

你能查一下吗？

Can you look that up?

因为那绝对是最近才说的。

Because that that definitely was said recently.

甘茨？

Gantz?

可能是本尼·甘茨。

It might have been Benny Gantz.

我正在让我的制作人查一下。

I'm trying to my producer's looking at it.

他们这么说具体是什么意思？

What exactly would they mean by that?

为什么要在与伊朗开战期间或即将开战前公开传递这种信号？

Why telegraph that publicly in the middle of a war with Iran or or soon before?

我不太理解这种做法。

I don't I don't understand that.

你知道，有一件事，这涉及到土耳其等问题。

You you know, one one thing, and it cuts to this issue of Turkey, etcetera.

你知道，我认为我们正在见证一件事，我认为我们正处于这样一个边缘：整个中东地区的一代年轻人将被灌输一个观念，即这实际上是一场宗教战争。

You know, one one thing that I think we're we're witnessing here, I I think we're on the verge of of this being drilled into the heads of an entire generation of young people across the Middle East that, in fact, it it is a religious war.

你知道，人们一直极力试图说明这与宗教无关。

You know, there's there's been great pains taken to sort of say this isn't about religion.

但传递出的信息，尤其是美国驻以色列大使迈克·哈克比——他说话的方式简直就像以色列的外交部长——正在支持一个'大以色列'的理念，即从地中海一直延伸到幼发拉底河和底格里斯河，并开始以一种怪异的神学理由为其辩护。

It said, but the the message that's being sent, especially when The US ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee, who might as well be the foreign minister of Israel, the way that he talks, is is endorsing the idea of a greater Israel that goes from the Mediterranean all the way to the Tigris and Euphrates rivers and starts defending it in kind of some bizarre theological ground.

但我们目前所目睹的是，所有这些海湾君主国都依赖并受美国在其境内军事基地的存在所保护，它们与全球经济，特别是美国经济之间有着盘根错节、相互交织的关系。

But what what what we're witnessing right now is that you have all of these Gulf monarchies that are propped up and defended by the presence of American military sites in their countries, by their interwoven, interconnected relationship to the global economy, specifically to the American economy.

这些国家中没有任何一个具备民主的雏形。

There isn't any semblance of democracy in any of those countries.

而且，你知道，它们的人口被收买和贿赂，以保持某种程度的沉默。

And, you know, their populations are bribed and bought off to sort of be quiet.

也许这确实有效。

And and maybe it's effective.

也许当前的宣传或伊朗的所作所为，你知道，可能在某些方面造成了损害，或者让人们觉得，我们应该对伊朗采取强硬态度。

Maybe the propaganda or what Iran is doing right now, maybe it's damaging, you know, certain aspects, you know, or or or making people feel like, well, we should be aggressive toward Iran.

但归根结底，从更宏观的角度看，加沙的种族灭绝、加沙被彻底摧毁的现状、进一步吞并约旦河西岸的企图，以及他们刚刚在黎巴嫩发布的强制驱逐撤离令和流离失所令，将数十万人从贝鲁特南部郊区清空。

But at the end of the day, in a bigger picture, the genocide in Gaza, the the absolute obliteration of Gaza, the attempts to further annex the West Bank, now they just issued forced deport evacuation orders, displacement orders in Lebanon, clearing out hundreds of thousands of people from the South suburbs of Beirut.

以色列正在那里进行大规模轰炸。

The Israelis doing massive bombing there.

他们已经让整个地区陷入火海。

They've set the entire region on fire.

这会需要一代人的时间，但会有反噬的，蒂姆。

It will take a generation, but there's gonna be blowback, Tim.

这就像是九一一事件的教训，所谓的反恐战争的教训。

And it's like the lesson of nine eleven, the lesson of the so called war on terror.

这就像我们每隔几个周期就在院子里同一个地方踩到耙子。

It's like we we step on the rake in the same place in the yard every few cycles.

我认为现在看起来以色列似乎‘赢了’，但一系列事件正在启动，我们不知道会发生什么。

And I I think that it may seem like Israel is, quote, unquote, winning right now, but a series of events are being kicked into motion that we don't know what's gonna happen.

但可以确定的是，许多人、数百万民众正被告知这实际上是一场针对你们的宗教战争，而这将以一种重大的方式反噬美国。

But what but what is certain is that a lot of people, millions of people are being told this actually is a religious war against you, and that's gonna come back and bite The United States in a major way.

瑞安，以色列的反对党领袖站出来说，这是我们所有人的战争。

Ryan, the opposition leader in Israel came out and said, this is all of our war.

这是我们整个国家的战争。

This is our entire country's war.

所以我知道内塔尼亚胡理所当然地受到了大量批评。

So I know that Netanyahu very rightly gets a ton of criticism.

说批评，我们这么说吧，温和点说，据你估计，这当中有多少只是内塔尼亚胡个人的因素？就像历史伟人理论说的那样，如果没有内塔尼亚胡，这些事还会发生多少？

To say criticism, let's I mean, to put it mildly, how much of this in your estimation is just Netanyahu, like, you know, the great man of history theory where it's like without Netanyahu, how much of this is happening?

又有多少是以色列整个政府的既定政策？

And how much of this is just the preferred policy of the entire Israeli government.

而且没有内塔尼亚胡的话，你知道，如果他明天去世，以色列会出现重大的政策调整吗？

And without net you know, if Netanyahu died tomorrow, are we looking at a major course correction in Israel or not?

我的意思是，你知道，当看起来可能再次举行某种总理选举时，最接近内塔尼亚胡的候选人几乎都比他更右翼。

I mean, you know, when when it was looking like there might be some sort of election for, you know, prime minister again, the the all most of the candidates closest to Netanyahu were to his right.

所以，在排名前四左右的候选人中，他算是比较偏左翼的那一类。

So of the top four or so, he was like the most kind of left wing candidate.

我认为，你现在从当地民众那里看到的，正是美国与以色列所建立关系的自然产物。你知道，起初以色列内部存在左翼或中左翼力量，他们会说我们应该与巴勒斯坦人和平共处。

And I think what you're seeing from the population there is the natural product of the relationship that The US has set up with Israel, which is, you know, at the beginning you had a left or a center left within Israel that would say, we should do coexistence with the Palestinians.

我们应该这么做。

We should do it.

我们应该推行两国方案。

We should do two states.

我们都在这儿。

We're all here.

我们都将留在这里。

We're all gonna be here.

让我们把这个问题彻底讨论清楚。

Let's let's hammer this out.

然后右翼人士会说，我们为什么要向这些低等人类让步呢？

And then you had a right wing that was saying, why would we give anything away to these subhuman people?

我们就继续利用美国源源不断提供的军事武器和支持，来持续加强对越来越多领土的控制。

Let's just keep using the American military weapons and and support that is flowing in to just continue to lock down control of more and more territory.

这简直是白来的钱。

It's free money.

对。

Right.

这是免费的房地产。

It's free real estate.

我们用它吧。

Let's use it.

所以他们一直能够赢得这场争论，因为政治考量的一方主张某种程度的妥协，以实现可持续的共存。

And so they kept being able to win that argument because one side of the political calculation is arguing for some level of compromise in order to get a sustainable coexistence.

另一方则说，我们不妥协，反而能获得更多东西怎么样？

The other is saying, how about we don't compromise and actually get more stuff.

只有撤走美国那种军事和财政支持，才能迫使政治对话在合理的基础上进行。

And only by taking away the American kind of military and financial support would you have forced the political conversation to be held on reasonable grounds.

宗教因素是什么？

What is the What is the religious element?

你知道，当杰里米说这是一场宗教战争，并且人们现在将在中东将其内化为一场宗教战争时，塔克最近因为谈论查巴德、谈论第三圣殿，以及播放皮特·赫格塞斯的一段视频而受到了很多批评，视频中皮特说第三圣殿可能在我们有生之年重建。

You know, when Jeremy says this is a religious war and people are now going to internalize this in The Middle East as a religious war, Tucker got a lot of criticism recently for talking about Chabad and talking about the third temple and playing a a video of Pete Hegseth saying that the third temple could be, you know, rebuilt in our lifetime.

我知道这在某种程度上是基督徒和犹太人实际上在某种程度上共享的末日神话，这就是为什么美国有如此多的基督教锡安主义。

And I know this is sort of end times mythology that Christians and Jews actually share to a certain degree, which is why there's so much Christian Zionism in America.

我一直是这么想的，也许这只是因为我没受过教育。

I've always thought of this maybe, and maybe it's just because I'm uneducated.

我更多地将其视为一种世俗的财务动机，比如试图在加沙建造一个迈阿密，试图在这片万人坑上建立一个AI智慧城市，并试图在中东地区建立区域霸权。

I thought of it more of a secular financial motive of, like, trying to build a Miami in Gaza, trying to build an AI smart city on this mass grave and trying to have regional hegemony in The Middle East.

这其中是否存在一种神秘的、精神的成分，无论你怎么称呼它，即确实有极具影响力的神职人员在推动某些理念，因为他们相信这场斗争具有某种精神层面的意义？

Is there an element of this that is mystical, spiritual, whatever you wanna call it where you do have really influential clerics pushing certain ideas because they believe that there is some spiritual element to this fight?

哦，我其实认为，如果你回顾一下九十年代纽特·金里奇和《与美国有约》掌权时，共和党革命是如何组织的，或者看看里根在1980年大选中的竞选活动，其核心就是共和党战略家动员福音派选民，包括让大量原本根本不投票的福音派人士开始投票并支持共和党候选人。

Oh, I I I I actually think, you know, if you go back and you and you look at how the Republican revolution was organized in the nineteen nineties when Newt Gingrich and the contract with America came to power or you look at Reagan's electoral campaign in the nineteen eighty election, at the core of it was the Republican strategist mobilizing the evangelical vote and including getting large numbers of evangelicals who were not voters at all to start voting and supporting Republican candidates.

而且，非常讽刺的是，世界上有像卡尔·罗夫这样的人，他们将美国的那部分人视为疯子、怪人。

And and very cynically, there were the Karl Robes of the world who viewed that group that section of Americans as kind of the crazies, the loonies.

所以我们需要不断给那些狂热分子提供他们想要的东西，好让他们站在我们这边。

And so we need to constantly be throwing red meat to the loonies to keep them on our side.

我认为这些动态关系依然存在，而且在这个问题上肯定也存在。

And I think that there those dynamics still exist, and they certainly exist in this.

内塔尼亚胡根本就不是一个特别虔诚的人。

Netanyahu is not a particularly religious guy at all.

没错。

Right.

但他会谈论亚玛力人，对吧。

But he'll talk about Amalek Right.

以及需要将他们彻底消灭，并引用《托拉》经文，你知道，所有这些——他会在方便的时候这么做。

And the need to wipe them out and cite the Torah and, you know, all of the and he'll do it when it's convenient.

但我觉得你说到点子上了，当你谈到那种大型房地产项目时。

But I think you're you're nailing it when you talk about the sort of big real estate project.

而我指的是，当你有库什纳，又有内塔尼亚胡——尽管内塔尼亚胡的动机也是政治性的。

And what I'm referring to is this, that when you have Kushner and you have Netanyahu although Netanyahu's is also political.

这是犹太复国主义。

It's Zionism.

这是扩张主义。

It's it's expansionism.

这些都是。

It's all of those things.

但这背后是巨大的商业利益。

But it but there's this is big business.

这就是为什么阿联酋能与以色列关系正常化，并发布他们一起庆祝的照片，从某种程度上说，这一切都是生意。

That's why you can have The United Arab Emirates normalizing relations with Israel and posting pictures where they're celebrating together, and you have all it's all business in a way.

但我想说的是，他们正在那些在所有战争中死去的穆斯林的尸山之上，建造他们的公寓楼和商业项目。

But what I'm saying is they're erecting their condominiums and their business projects on a mountain of corpses of Muslims who've been killed in all of these wars.

而我想说的是，你不能这样做，还指望这一切不会反过来影响到你。

And what I'm saying is you can't do that and expect that it's not gonna circle back around to you.

所以，也许有一天，这些海湾君主国中的一些会被推翻或垮台。

So a day may come where some of these Gulf monarchies, they're toppled or they're brought down.

而故事的一部分将是我们此刻正在目睹的，因为传递出的信息是：以色列发动了一场以色列至上主义的战争，这场战争由美国发动，并得到了这些君主国或明或暗的支持。

And part of the story is gonna be what we're all witnessing right at this very moment because the message has been sent that Israel it was an Israeli supremacist war that was waged with The United by The United States with the support tacitly and otherwise of these monarchies.

而当这些海湾君主国被推翻时，你指的是被进步的、世俗的多元主义者推翻。

And when these Gulf monarchies are toppled, you mean by progressive, secular pluralists.

对吗？

Right?

我的意思是，你可能会觉得，这显然是好事。

I mean, you're like, well, obviously, it's good.

但但这就是我的意思。

But but this is what I mean.

对吧？

Right?

你会得到叙利亚。

You're gonna get Syria.

对吧？

Right?

你可能会得到一个曾经是ISIS成员的人来接管，所以你可能接手的是一个正在某种程度上现代化的国家，比如卡塔尔、阿曼、约旦之类的。

You're gonna get somebody who was in ISIS who's now going to take so you're gonna take a country potentially that's somewhat modernizing a Qatar, Oman, Jordan, whatever.

其中一些海湾君主国可能会被推翻，而推翻它们的很可能是宗教狂热分子。

And some of these Gulf monarchies would be toppled and you would get you they'd probably be toppled by religious fanatics.

但是，嗯，让我用一种稍微细致一点的方式来回答这个问题。

But well, but let me let me let me answer that in a little bit of a nuanced way.

是的。

Yeah.

我们有一个现实的例子，一个活生生的例子。

We have an example, a living example of this.

当2011年埃及革命发生时，当所谓的阿拉伯之春起义爆发时，美国支持的胡斯尼·穆巴拉克独裁政权被推翻，爆发了民众起义。

When the Egyptian revolution happened in 2011, when the so called Arab Spring uprisings were happened, The US backed dictatorship of Hosni Mubarak was toppled, and there was a popular revolt.

然后埃及，几十年来第一次举行了自由公正的选举。

And then Egypt, the first time in decades, had free and fair elections.

以广泛支持赢得选举的候选人——不仅有宗教背景的埃及人支持，还有世俗主义者和年轻人支持——是来自穆斯林兄弟会运动的穆罕默德·穆尔西医生。

And the candidate who won those elections with the wide support, not just of religious Egyptians, but also secularists and young people, was doctor Mohammed Morsi who came out of the Muslim Brotherhood movement.

而且他赢得了民主选举，尽管许多投票给他的人并非穆斯林兄弟会的成员或支持者，但他赢得了某种程度上的全民共识。

And he won a democratic election even though a lot of the people that voted for him were not members or supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood, but he he won a sort of consensus of of the population.

然后在大约一年内，美国就支持了一场政变，阿卜杜勒-法塔赫·塞西将军上台掌权，埃及又回到了我们不再会有真正民主的时刻。

And within, like, a year or so, The US was backing a coup where general Abdel Fattah al Sisi took power, and Egypt's gone back to the moment of we're not gonna have any real democracy anymore.

我认为问题在于，你知道，埃及的穆罕默德·穆尔西是个有趣的人，因为他很现代。

And I think that the the question then becomes you know, Mohammad Morsi in Egypt was an interesting guy because he was modern.

他受过极好的教育。

He was extremely well educated.

他本质上是一个政治现实主义者。

He under he was a political realist.

而且我认为，它甚至没有被给予机会去见证一个国家的模样：这个国家既有民主选举，又带有鲜明的宗教身份认同，同时还尊重基本的世俗主义——这种模式在现代从未被真正允许运行过，因为美国不希望如此。

And I and I don't think it was given a chance to even see what does it look like to have a country that has democratic elections, has a distinctly religious sort of identity to it, but also respects a basic secularism that's never really been allowed to function in the modern era because The United States doesn't want that.

美国实际上并不希望这些国家实现民主。

The United States isn't actually interested in having democracy in any of these countries.

看看今天早上CNN的达娜·巴什采访特朗普时问的问题。

Look who Trump Trump was asked by Dana Bash from CNN this morning.

那么如果宗教人物在伊朗掌权会怎样呢？

You know, what about if a religious figure takes power in Iran?

你知道吗？

You know?

因为特朗普说我也得参与挑选过程。

Because Trump's saying I have to be involved with the picking of it.

要知道，伊朗需要赶紧通过一项全国性的选民身份证法，对吧。

Know, Iran needs to pass a national voter ID law real quick Right.

把特朗普排除在外。

Get Trump out of it.

但特朗普说，我对宗教领袖没有意见，他基本上是在说它不必是民主制度。

But Trump's saying, I have no problem with religious leaders, and he's basically saying it doesn't have to be a democracy.

我很好。

I'm fine.

他们不在乎。

They don't care.

他们其实并不在乎。

They don't really care.

他们想要的是易于操控的国家，这些国家总会以某种方式为美国服务，至于这些国家如何对待自己的人民，他们根本毫不在意，除非这符合他们的叙事需要。

They want malleable states that in one way or the other are gonna do the bidding of The United States, and they couldn't really care less what they do to their own people unless it's convenient to the narrative.

我是说，这些抗议有多普遍呢？我并不是在泛指。

How how generic were the I mean, I'm not generic.

当我们看到伊朗抗议的画面时，我是说，我每年有部分时间住在加州，我认识很多来自伊朗的人，我知道他们当中很多人，当阿亚图拉倒台时，是真心感到兴奋的，因为他们曾经历过压迫。

How, when we're looking at footage of Iranian protests, and I'm sure I I I I live in California for part of the year, and I know a lot of people that, you know, are from Iran, and I know that a lot of them were, you know, genuinely excited when the Ayatollah fell because, you know, they had experienced oppression.

而且，你知道，他们指出伊朗的女性在某种程度上——再说一次，我也不确定。

And they, you know, they have pointed out that women in Iran to to some degree, and again, I don't know.

我不在那里。

I'm not there.

你知道吗？

You know?

我们看到的那些伊朗抗议活动，那些小视频片段，到底有多真实和广泛？

How how genuine and widespread were those Iranian protests that we saw, like, small videos of?

其中一些抗议活动是否由外部势力策划，可能是摩萨德？

Were some of them engineered by outside forces, potentially Mossad?

它们是否在某种程度上被那些势力煽动和挑起的？

Were they kind of egged on and stoked by that?

这部分人代表了国家的多大比例？

How much of the country does that represent?

在决定伊朗未来走向方面，这个国家的那部分势力有多强大？

How powerful is that section of the country in terms of determining the future course of Iran?

我们说的是10%的人，还是30%的人？

Are we talking 10% of people, 30% of people?

我的意思是，这个国家有9000万人口。

I mean, the country has 90,000,000 people.

我们说的这些人里，有多少只是年轻人？

How many of them are we talking about only young people?

他们只集中在德黑兰吗？

Are they only in Tehran?

你对那些伊朗抗议活动以及它们的自发性程度有什么看法？

What do you think about those Iran protests and how organic they were?

确实，你知道，当时有一些大规模的抗议活动。

There were, you know, there were some huge protests.

比如，当时街上有大量的人群参与抗议。

Like, there were enormous numbers of people that were in the streets.

抗议最初是在一个市场开始的，那里的店主们开始对汇率问题表示不满。

It was started in a in a market where shop owners, you know, started protesting about exchange rates.

美国已经向贝桑特本人明确表示，财政部长公开说过，我们故意在伊朗制造了一场货币危机，以引发抗议。

And The US has been clear to Besant himself as the treasury secretary said publicly, you know, we deliberately engineered a a a currency crisis in Iran in order to spark a protest.

这几乎就是我们财政部长原话的直接引用。

Like, that's almost a direct quote from from our treasury secretary.

他所做的是通过制裁和一些新的制裁政策来操纵人们的储蓄价值和伊朗货币的购买力。

What he did is manipulated, you know, through through sanctions and through some new sanctions policy what what people's savings were worth and what you could buy, you know, with with Iranian money.

突然间，那些依赖稳定货币体系来进口商品并在街头销售的商人们就陷入了困境。

And all of a sudden, the, you know, merchants were just, you know, who depend on, you know, some stable monetary system in order to be able to buy imports and then sell them on the streets.

他们开始抗议这件事，恰恰是美国所希望的。

They started protesting against this, is precisely what The US wanted.

美国还表示，我们向该国运送了大约5万台埃隆·马斯克的小型卫星设备，并且一直在煽动起义。

The US also said that we shipped like what 50,000 of Elon Musk's little satellite devices into the into the country and otherwise have been, you know, fomenting uprise.

毫无疑问，与伊朗人交谈时，能感受到很多愤怒。

There's no question talking to Iranians like there there's a lot of anger.

确实如此。

Like Sure.

抛开你对政权或伊朗政府的反对立场不谈，过去数月乃至数年的经济危机确实让日常生活变得非常艰难。

The country is the the country I mean, setting aside your opposition to the regime if you have it or to the Iranian government, The economics crisis over the last months and years is makes daily life very difficult.

讽刺的是，正如你所说，对政府的主要反对力量大多集中在德黑兰。

Now ironically, most of the opposition to the government would be like you said, in Tehran.

我们现在所处的境地，就是在对那个国家进行狂轰滥炸，将其打回七世纪的水平。

And that is the place that we are now, you know, bombing into the seventh century.

没错。

Right.

看起来是在对世界上最古老、最大的城市之一进行无差别轰炸。

Seems like indiscriminate bombing around around this one of the oldest and biggest cities in the world.

所以我们打击的，你知道，正是那些最有可能上街抗议的人。

So we're hitting, you you know, the people that would be most likely to be to be supportive of of to be to have been out in the streets protesting.

没错。

Right.

对此还有什么要补充的吗，蒂姆，因为你也在询问那边更宏观的情况。

What to add to that, Tim, because you're you're also asking about sort of the the broader picture there.

你知道，最终发生的情况是，而且我们也与亲眼目睹此事的人交谈过，当时发生了这些大规模的民众抗议，而国家方面几乎没有做出任何回应。

You know, what ended up happening, and, you know, we we also spoke to people who witnessed this themselves, is that you had these huge popular protests, and there was almost no response from the state whatsoever.

事实上，伊朗的最高领袖——当然，他在战争初期阶段被暗杀了——甚至曾公开表示需要倾听抗议者的声音。

In fact, the supreme leader of of Iran who, of course, was assassinated in the opening stages of this war had even publicly said that the protesters need to be listened to.

直到1月8日左右，都没有关于任何重大暴力事件的报道。

And there were there were no significant reports of any violence until around January 8.

所以，他们大约是在12月下旬开始的。

So, like, they start they started in late December.

他们追溯到1月8日。

They go to January 8.

而且，你知道，我们确切知道的事实是，一些潜伏在大型和平示威活动中的小团体开始攻击警察局或袭击警察。

And, you know, what what we know for a fact happened was that small cells of people that were embedded within larger peaceful demonstrations started attacking police stations or attacking police officers.

在某些情况下，他们甚至开始攻击清真寺。

And in some cases, they start attacking mosques.

而且，你知道，所以我的意思是，就像一位我交谈过的、目睹了部分事件的伊朗人所说，这就像在美国的大型反战示威中看到煽动者一样，总有些人想脱离队伍，认为革命现在就要发生，并试图点燃警车。

And, you know, and and so I mean, like, one one Iranian that I talked to who witnessed some of this said that it's like watching agitators at, like, a big anti war demonstration in The US where you've got, like, the people that wanna break off, and they the revolution's gonna happen now, and let's try to set a cop car on fire.

是的。

Right.

于是你开始看到人们这样做。

So you start having people do this.

而伊朗政府所说的——再次强调，这是一个主权国家的说法——是，他们认为存在一些由摩萨德支持、在某些情况下还获得了走私武器的组织，这些组织正在协调针对政府的袭击、针对清真寺的袭击以及针对安全人员的袭击。

And and so and the what the Iranian government has said and, again, this is a nation states narrative, but what the Iranian government has said is that there were cells of people that they believe were being supported by Mossad and, in some cases, provided with smuggled in weapons that were coordinating attacks against the government, attacks against mosques, attacks against security personnel.

听起来接下来发生的是，这些枪战开始了，我认为有数千名伊朗人被枪杀。

And what it sounds like happened is that there were then these gun battles that start, and I think thousands of Iranians got gunned down.

而且，你知道，我认为我们并不清楚确切的死亡人数，但有一点我认为是明确的，即那种认为仅仅是伊朗政府决定向和平抗议者开枪的说法是不真实的。

And I'm you know, we I don't think we know the extent of the death toll, but what I think is clear is that the narrative that it was simply the Iranian government decided to open fire on peaceful protests is is not true.

问题在于，他们动用的武力有多大规模？

The question is how overwhelming was the force?

在镇压他们所称的恐怖叛乱过程中，政府杀害了多少伊朗人？

How many Iranians did the government kill in the process of trying to put down what they characterized as terrorist rebellions?

其手段又有多过度呢？

How excessive was it?

有多少具尸体？

How many corpses were there?

我们不知道，这需要调查。

We don't know that, and and it needs to be investigated.

但我们必须对此保持理智上的诚实。

But we have to be intellectually honest about this.

伊朗政府称有3100人死亡。

The Iranian government has said that 3,100 people died.

这包括所有人，包括安全部队在内。

That includes everyone including security forces.

国际人权组织表示，实际数字要高得多得多。

International human rights organizations are saying those numbers are much, much higher.

部分数据也来自与人权组织，这些组织与国家民主基金会有关联，并曾接受美国政府资助。

Some of the numbers also come from human rights organizations that are connected to the National Endowment for Democracy and have received US government funding.

但即便是大型组织，如大赦国际、人权观察，它们都将其定性为大部分死亡是由伊朗政府向和平抗议者开火造成的。

But even the big ones, Hamnesty International, Human Rights Watch, they all have characterized it as most of the deaths were caused by the Iranian government opening fire on peaceful protesters.

我认为，因为这些叙述已被武器化，用以在初期获取公众对某种所谓‘针对伊朗的行动’的更广泛支持，所以需要对一月份在伊朗发生的事件进行实际调查。

I think that we because these narratives have been weaponized into broader public support initially for some kind of, quote, unquote, action against Iran, there needs to be an actual investigation of the events that took place in Iran in January.

但这甚至已不再是白宫叙事的一部分。

But it it it is not even part of the narrative anymore from the

白宫。

White House.

这根本不是关于我们要拯救伊朗人民。

This isn't about we're saving the Iranian people.

特朗普，他们现在甚至都不提核问题了。

Trump Trump is they're not even talking nuclear anymore.

现在他们说的是，我们要消除他们的弹道导弹能力。

Now it's we're gonna get rid of their ballistic missile capacity.

他们实际在说的是——我希望大家能明白这一点。

What they're actually saying I want people to understand this.

他们实际在说的是，伊朗不应该拥有任何防御能力。

What they're actually saying is Iran shouldn't have any defensive capacity.

它不应该拥有任何能力，而任何有分量的民族国家都具备这种能力，以威慑其他国家不对其发动攻击。

It shouldn't have any ability, which any nation state worth anything has to deter other nations from attacking it.

当前的立场是，伊朗应该像叙利亚那样，在阿萨德倒台后，以色列便介入其中。

The position right now is Iran should be like Syria, where after Assad fell, Israel came in.

他们轰炸了叙利亚的全部常规军事能力，以确保无论谁接任，无论哪位阿拉伯统治者掌权，都不会拥有一支真正的军队。

They bombed the entire conventional military capacity of Syria to make sure that whoever comes next, whatever Arab ruler takes power, won't have a real military.

在某种程度上，这可以说是内塔尼亚胡在这场游戏中所期望的最低目标。

In a way, that's kind of the minimum that Netanyahu wants of this game.

瑞恩，我们讨论过，所以他们永远无法再成为一个真正的国家了。

Ryan, we spoke so they can't ever be a real nation state again.

是的。

Yeah.

瑞安，我们之前谈到了人工智能在协助军方协调攻击方面所扮演的角色。

Ryan, we spoke earlier about the role that AI is playing in actually cord helping these military coordinate attacks.

你能稍微谈谈这一点吗？

Can you speak a little bit to that?