政治先知预测伊朗下一阶段、特朗普的战争计划及以色列破坏计划

而对我们隐瞒的事实是，以色列人和美国人正试图摧毁国家治理人民的能力，本质上是摧毁国家对暴力的垄断。

And what's being hidden from us is the fact that the Israelis and Americans are trying to destroy the capacity of the state to govern the nation, basically destroy the state's monopoly on violence.

因此，我们听到的都是对警察、军事设施的袭击，还有传言称特种部队正在进入伊朗，开始资助反对派团体，比如伊朗东南部的库尔德人和帕拉基人。

And so what we're hearing are attacks on police officers, on military installations, and there's talk of special forces going into Iran and starting to fund fund dissident groups, right, like the Kurds and the Palaqis in Southeast Iran.

所以，无论这场战争如何发展，即使伊朗政府能在这场战争中幸存下来，要维持对全国的控制也将变得极其困难。

So no matter what happens in this war, it's gonna be very hard for the government to maintain national control even if they were to survive this war.

另一个对伊朗来说巨大的问题是，过去几年它一直遭受干旱困扰。

And also another huge issue for Iran is that for the past few years, it suffered drought issues.

因此，其农业受到了严重影响。

So its agriculture was heavily impacted.

他们甚至曾讨论过要迁移人口，把数百万民众从德黑兰等城市迁出，因为首都已无法承载如此庞大的人口。

They were actually talking about moving terrain, like moving these millions of people out of the city of terrain because the capital can no longer sustain this large population.

这场战争将加剧这些环境问题，尤其是对大坝、水库等关键民用基础设施的袭击。

So this war will only exacerbate these environmental issues, especially with the attacks on critical civil infrastructure, for example, dams, reservoirs.

这些是这些是这些是排放工厂。

These are these are these are these emission plants.

伊朗要从这场战争中恢复过来，将需要许多年。

And this will take years and years for Iran to recover from this war as a nation.

你基本上是在积累民族情绪。

You you have basically the storing of ethnic sentiments.

你看到的是国家提供基本服务的能力被摧毁。

You have the destruction of the state's capacity to deliver basic services.

但伊朗的好消息是，他们似乎能够维持对霍尔木兹海峡的控制，这一点至关重要，因为他们现在可以对任何使用霍尔木兹海峡的船只收取通行费，他们提到的费率是10%，这每年应为伊朗带来约8000亿美元的收入。

But the good news for Iran is that it seems as though they will be able to maintain control over the of And that is critical because now they're able to charge a toll on anyone who uses the Strait Of Hormuz, and they talk about 10%, which should generate about about $800,000,000,000 a year annually for Iran.

因此，这个国家在这场战争中可能会被摧毁，但如果它能激发波斯人的自豪感，能团结波斯人民，并有效利用霍尔木兹海峡的资源，那么我们有理由相信，伊朗将在十年到二十年后重新崛起。

So the nation will be destroyed in this war, but it but if it's able to harness the pride of the Persian people, if it's able to unify the Persian people, and it's it's able to leverage the resource of the Shreve Homous effectively, then we can expect Iran to rise again in like ten to twenty years time.

几年后，以色列会处于什么位置？

Where is Israel in a few years from now?

如果你看看这场战争的最大受益者，那就是以色列，因为以色列有一个名为“大以色列计划”的野心，他们相信他们的神雅威曾应许他们的祖先亚伯拉罕。

So if you look at the main beneficiary of this war, it is Israel because Israel has an ambition called the Greater Israel Project, which is what they believe that their God, Yahweh, promised to their ancestor, Abraham.

因此，他们相信雅威应许亚伯拉罕的土地，从埃及的尼罗河一直延伸到伊拉克的幼发拉底河。

And so they believe that Yahweh promised Abraham all the land from the Nile in Egypt to Euphrates in Iraq.

如果你看整个地图，它还延伸到安纳托利亚，即土耳其南部，甚至进入沙特阿拉伯。

If you look at the entire map, it also extends to Anatolia, which is Southern Turkey and even into Saudi Arabia.

所以，如果你看看正在发生的事情，你会发现海湾合作委员会的瓦解恰恰有利。

So if you look at what's happening, well, it's convenient in that the GCC is being destroyed.

沙特阿拉伯很可能会被卷入这场战争。

Saudi Arabia will probably be drawn into this war.

土耳其也可能被卷入这场战争。

It is possible Turkey will be drawn into this war as as well.

这场战争使以色列能够按照自己的意愿重塑中东。

And this war allows Israel to remake the Middle East in its own image.

此外，如果你仔细想想，根据博弈论，以色列实现大以色列计划的主要制约因素其实不是伊朗，而是美国。

Also, if you think about it, according to game theory, the main constraint to Israel achieving the Greater Israel Project is actually not Iran, but America.

因为美国保障了海湾合作委员会、沙特阿拉伯、卡塔尔、科威特、阿联酋等国家的军事安全与保护。

Because America guarantees the military safety and protection of the GCC, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Iran, UAE, these nations.

因此，如果以色列变得强大并成为中东的霸主，它就必须想办法将美国排除在这一格局之外。

And so if Israel is is becoming dominant, it's become the hegemon of the Middle East, it needs to figure out how to remove America from the equation.

坦率地说，这场战争暴露了美国实力的局限性。

And quite honestly, this war has shown the limitations of American power.

这真的让美国民众感到愤怒。

It's it's really annoyed the American people.

美国民众并不希望这场战争。

The American people do not want this war.

美国民众甚至都不明白为什么美国还留在中东。

American people haven't don't even understand why America is still in the Middle East.

因此，无论这场战争如何发展，美国都很可能被迫从中东撤出，这样一来，以色列就能实现其大以色列计划。

And so it's very possible that regardless of what happens in this war, America is forced to withdraw from the Middle East, in which case Israel is able to achieve its Greater Israel Project.

普通的安防摄像头无法阻止入室盗窃。

Standard security cameras cannot prevent break ins.

它们可以在盗窃发生后帮助抓到窃贼，但那已经有点晚了。

They can help catch burglars after they've done it, but that's a little late.

不是吗？

No?

他们可以偷走你的东西，吓到你的家人，甚至伤害你。

They can steal your stuff, scare your family, maybe hurt you.

你需要一个能在入室盗窃发生前就阻止它的安防系统。

You need a security system that will stop home invasions before they occur.

这就是我们总是推荐SimpliSafe的原因。

That's why we always recommend SimpliSafe.

SimpliSafe是一个全屋安防系统，由2047名监控人员提供支持，即使你不在家也能信赖。

SimpliSafe is a whole home security system backed by 20 fourseven monitoring agents you can rely on even when you're gone.

主动预防犯罪不同于事后反应，这正是关键所在。

Proactive crime prevention is not reactive, and that makes the difference.

而且无需长期合约，让你可以自由更换，如果不满意的话。

Plus no required long term contract that gives you flexibility to switch if you don't like it.

不过这种情况不太可能发生，因为我们认为SimpliSafe非常出色，而且他们对自己的防护效果充满信心，还提供防盗保障承诺。

That's unlikely though, because we think SimpliSafe is excellent, and they're so confident in the protection, they back it with an anti theft guarantee.

已有四百多万人使用，拥有二十年经验，荣获2026年最佳家居安防系统称号，代表了行业的巅峰。

Used by over 4,000,000 people, twenty years of experience, named Best Home Security System of 2026, it's the peak of the industry.

现在，收听本节目的听众可以在 simplisafe.com/tucker 以五折优惠购买全新的 SimpliSafe 系统。

And right now, listeners to this show can get 50% off their new SimpliSafe system at simplisafe.com/tucker.

在 simplisafe.com/tucker，没有比 SimpliSafe 更安全的选择。

At simplisafe.com/tucker, there is no safe like simplisafe.

我清楚地意识到，这是其中的一部分动机——以色列理解这一点，并将美国卷入这场战争，目的是让美国退出中东，从而打击美国并迫使美国离开中东。

It was clear to me that that was part of the motive, that Israel understood this and roped The United States into this war in order to get The United States out in order to hurt The United States and get The United States out of the Middle East.

你认为这个计划会成功吗？

Do you think that will be successful?

我认为，以这场战争的进展来看，这个计划会奏效。

I think the way this war is going, this plan will work.

原因在于，美国军队几十年来都没有打过一场真正的战争。

And the reason why is the the American military has not fought a real war for decades.

2003 年的伊拉克战争并不是一场真正的战争，因为萨达姆·侯赛因基本上投降了。

2003, this war in Iraq was not a real war because Saddam Hussein basically gave up.

他没有防空系统，因为经济制裁摧毁了他的经济，他的逻辑是这样的。

He didn't have air defense because those economic sanctions had destroyed his economy and his logic was this.

让美国人入侵吧。

Let the Americans invade.

他们不可能入侵，因为如果他们摧毁了我们，就会让与美国敌对的伊朗成为地区强国。

They can't possibly invade because if they destroy us, that would make Iran, which has hostilities against America, the regional power.

那么美国为什么要这么做呢？

So why would America do this?

这会适得其反。

It is self defeating.

这不合逻辑。

It is not logical.

这不理性。

It is not rational.

所以我并不担心他们会攻击我。

So I'm not worried about them attacking me.

当他们真的发动攻击时，他感到惊讶，因为这不合逻辑。

And he was surprised when they did attack because it was not logical.

这不合逻辑。

It was not rational.

但他们确实发动了攻击。

But they did they did attack.

这简直轻而易举。

It was it was a cakewalk.

大约花了两周时间。

It took about two weeks.

美国迅速取得了制空权，迅速进军巴格达，并很快推翻了政权。

America achieved air supremacy very quickly and they rolled into Baghdad and very, very quickly and toppled the regime.

这是一场非常迅速且轻松的战争，符合美国军队的‘震慑与震慑’军事学说。

So that was a very quick and easy war that fit the American military military doctrine of shock and awe.

伊朗的情况完全不同，美国军队不想打这场仗，因为他们已经无数次进行过战争推演。

Iran is completely different, and the American military does not wanna fight this war because they've war gamed this countless countless times.

在每次推演中，他们都发现会失败，因为美国军队太过笨重。

In each war game, they discover that they they lose because the American military, it's it's too bulky.

它没有伊朗军队那么灵活和坚韧。

It's not as nimble and resilient as the Iranian military.

我们现在正看到这种情况发生：你们有这些强大的航母，比如亚伯拉罕·林肯号和福特号，威胁着伊朗，但却没有采取任何实际行动，因为它们害怕靠近伊朗海岸，否则会容易受到无人机和高超音速武器的攻击。

And we're seeing that play out right now where you have these devastating carriers, Abraham Lincoln, Majuro Ford, threatening Iran, but not actually doing anything because they're they're afraid of getting too close to the coast of Iran because then they they become susceptible to drone strikes as well as hypersonics.

所以伊朗人已经为此准备了二十多年。

So the Iranians have have been preparing this for twenty plus years.

他们完全了解美国的整个作战计划，并且拥有完美的策略来应对美国的作战计划。

They know the entire American playbook, and they have the perfect strategy to counter the American playbook.

因此，美国在这场战争中将面临极大的困难。

So America will have a really tough time win this war.

最大的问题，好吧，现在最大的疑问是：美国会派遣地面部队吗？

The great problem, okay, the big question now is will America send in ground troops?

因为一旦美国派遣地面部队，就等于彻底卷入了。

Because once America sends in ground troops, then it becomes part committed.

这是典型的任务扩大，某种因果谬误。

It's it's mission creep, some cause fallacy.

这会像越南战争一样收场。

It'll be like Vietnam over.

目前有传言说，2500名海军陆战队士兵将从冲绳调来。

So right now, there's talk of 2,500 marines who've coming in from Okinawa.

他们大约七天后就会抵达中东。

They'll be in The Middle East in about seven days time.

据说，据传——我不确定——但传言他们的意图是占领卡格岛，这是伊朗主要的深水石油设施。

And the talk is the rumor is and I don't know, but the rumor is the intention is for for them to take Karg Island, which is the main oil deep hole for Iran.

伊朗9%的石油出口都来自这个岛屿上的设施。

So Iran exports 9% of its oil from that facility, the island.

如果海军陆战队占领了它，这在视觉效果上会非常出色。

And if the marines were to take it, it'll be great optics.

你知道的。

You know?

特朗普在电视上会显得很风光。

Trump would look good on TV.

这对美国士气将是一个巨大的提振。

It'd it'd be a great boost for the for American morale.

问题是，你可以拿下它，但无法守住，因为它离伊朗海岸太近，伊朗可以用火炮和无人机发动攻击。

The problem is that you can take it, but you can't hold it because it's too close to Iranian coast, and the Iranians can attack with artillery with drones.

明白吗？

Okay?

这意味着你必须同时进攻海岸。

Which means that you now have to take take on the coast.

你必须占领海岸并建立一个前沿作战基地。

You have you have to occupy the coast and create a forward operating base.

但这样一来，你就暴露在扎格罗斯山脉的威胁之下。

But then you're exposed to the Zagos Mountains.

对吧？

Right?

这意味着你不得不同时占领这些山脉。

Which means that you're now forced to occupy the mountains as well.

这就是任务的不断扩张。

It's So mission creep.

这完全像越南战争，1965年，3000名海军陆战队员进驻岘港占领一个空军基地，结果四五年后，你却有了五十万军队，对吧？

It's exactly like Vietnam where in 1965, 3,000 marines went into Da Nang to occupy an airbase and like four or five years later, you have you have a half a million troops, Right?

所以一开始是个非常有限且自我界定的任务，但后来却不断膨胀。

So it started off as a very limited self defined mission, but then it just balloons.

因此，美国可能很快就会陷入这种局面。

So America could find itself in the situation very quickly.

如果你是美国总统，以今天的情况来看，你会怎么做？

If you were the commander in chief of The United States, what would you do at this point as of today?

你说的总统是指唐纳德·特朗普吗？

Commander in chief meaning Donald Trump?

是的。

Yeah.

由你来做决定。

You get to make the decision.

如果美国此时此刻以自身利益为出发点，试图维护其权力与财富，它接下来该怎么做？

Or what does America do next if it's acting in its own interest, if it's trying to preserve its power and wealth at this point, what does it do?

首先，我会承认这些事件都是相互关联的，对吧？

Well, first of all, I would acknowledge that all these events are interconnected, right?

所以，中美贸易战、乌克兰战争、中东战争，这一切都是相互关联的，因为美国帝国过于扩张，手伸得太长了。

So this trade war of China, this war in Ukraine, this war in The Middle East, it's all interconnected because the American empire, it's too overstretched and it has its fingers on everything.

因此，它让敌人有机会挑唆它陷入无休止的战争。

And so it allows its enemies to provoke it into these never ending wars.

所以我会坐下来，和所有人——包括俄罗斯、中国、伊朗——谈一谈：是时候建立一个新世界秩序，我们成为彼此的合作伙伴。

So what I would do is basically sit down everyone, okay, including Russia, China, Iran, and say, it's time for a new world order where we are partners in this relationship.

对吧？

Right?

在美國成為霸權之前，在美元成為世界儲備貨幣之前。

Before America was a hegemon, before the US dollar was a world reserve currency.

但现在，我们希望开启一场对话，让每个人都受到尊重，让美国不再是个霸凌者，而是成为创造新经济秩序的共赢伙伴，让所有人都受益，而不仅仅是少数人。

But now what we want to do is open a dialogue where everyone is respected, where America is no longer the bully, but a winning partner in creating a new economic order that benefits everyone and not just and not just a few.

我认为这是最明智的建议，也可能是唯一能挽救文明的道路。

I think that's the wisest possible advice and probably the only path that preserves civilization.

但目前阻碍这一进程的正是以色列，正如你刚才所说，它是这场战争唯一的受益者。

And but they're the one country standing in the way of that is Israel, which is the only beneficiary of this war, as you just said.

我认为这是对的。

I think that's true.

你能想到除了以色列之外，还有谁是这场战争的受益者吗？

Can you think of another beneficiary other than Israel of this war?

嗯，俄罗斯也从中受益，对吧？

Well, Russia benefits, right?

因为俄罗斯正试图赢得这场乌克兰战争。

Because Russia is trying to win this war in Ukraine.

没错。

That's correct.

而美国被迫解除对石油的制裁。

And and America is forced to lift oil sanctions.

因此，俄罗斯现在能够获取所有这些战争利益，并帮助伊朗，资助伊朗对抗美国和以色列的斗争。

And so now Russia is now able to take all these war profits, right, and then help the Iranians, finance the the Iranians in the struggle against the Americans and the Israelis.

所以俄罗斯也从这场战争中获得了巨大的好处。

So the Russians also benefit tremendously from this war.

是的。

Yeah.

但你说得有道理。

But fair point.

为了实现你刚刚建议以色列采取的行动，美国必须对以色列进行约束。

Israel has to be constrained by The United States in order to do what you just recommended it do.

这可能吗？

Is that possible?

美国总统是否有权控制其附庸国？

Does the American president have the authority to control its client state?

如果你看看以色列的国内局势，以色列已经不再理性行事了。

So if you look at the domestic situation in Israel, Israel no longer behaves rationally.

这某种程度上被末世狂热所主导。

It is sort of overtaken by eschatological fever.

对吧？

Right?

所以如果你看从以色列流出的视频，会看到拉比们四处宣称，这场中东战争尽管正在摧毁特拉维夫，但对我们来说是好事，因为这将带来我们的救世主降临。

So if you look at videos coming out of Israel, there are rabbis going around saying that this war in The Middle East, even though it's destroying Tel Aviv, it's good for us because this will lead to the to the coming of our messiah.

因此，他们相信，当以色列承受最大压力、其存在受到威胁时，上帝就会介入，因为犹太民族将再次团结一致，重新坚定对上帝的信仰。

So they believe that it is when Israel is under the most strain, when Israel when the very existence of Israel is threatened, then God will intervene because the Jewish people will come together as a nation again and commit themselves, renew their faith in God.

一旦上帝看到犹太人民如此盲目而虔诚地信靠祂，祂就会拯救自己的子民，派遣救世主来救赎犹太人。

And once God sees the blind trusting after the faith of the Jewish people, then he will save his people by sending his Messiah who will then redeem the Jewish people.

所以有人认为，世俗和现实事务其实并不重要。

So another saying this is secular, temporal matters don't really matter.

中东这场战争，根本不是问题。

This war in The Middle East, not an issue.

重要的是神性。

What matters is divinity.

重要的是我们与上帝的关系。

What matters is our relationship with God.

对。

Yes.

所以重要的是信仰。

So what matters is faith.

如果核弹飞来飞去，其实并不重要。

If nuclear bombs go flying, doesn't really matter.

最有趣的是，你知道，二十五年前在09:11，不管你如何看待那件事的发生原因和经过，我当时亲眼目睹了政治伊斯兰主义的存在。

It's what's what's so interesting is that, you know, twenty five years ago at 09:11, whatever you think of how that happened and why, there was, I saw it personally, you know, a political Islam.

当时有瓦哈比派。

There were Wahhabis.

世界上有很多伊斯兰激进分子。

There were a lot of Islamic radicals around the world.

但出于种种原因，二十五年来，这些并未消失。

And for a bunch of reasons over twenty five years, that hasn't disappeared.

伊斯兰激进分子仍然存在，但已不再是重要的政治力量。

There still exist Islamic radicals, but it's not, you know, an important political force anymore.

与此同时，随着伊斯兰教整体变得更加温和，海湾合作委员会就是最明显的例子，却出现了一种所谓的犹太瓦哈比主义和福音派基督教瓦哈比主义。

At the same time, as Islam in general has become much more moderate, and the GCC is the most obvious example of this, there has been a rise of Jewish Wahhabism and evangelical Christian Wahhabism, so to speak.

我的意思是，你已经看到一些美国新教徒、基督徒，以及一些以色列和美国犹太人中的末世论极端主义。

I mean, you've seen this eschatological extremism among some American Protestants, Christians, and some Israeli and American Jews.

这到底是怎么发生的？

What how did that happen?

那到底是什么？

What is that?

没错。

Right.

首先，我认为我们无论如何都不能低估末世论对美国政治的影响。

So first of all, I I don't think we can ever overestimate the influence of eschatology in American politics.

我举个例子：大约四分之一的美国人是福音派信徒，其中许多人是基督教锡安主义者。

So I'll give an example where about a quarter of Americans are evangelicals and a lot of them are Christian Zionists.

因此，他们认为以色列是实现上帝计划和耶稣再临的关键所在。

So they believe that Israel is crucial, the linchpin to achieving God's plan and the return of Jesus.

所以，一个你可能非常熟悉的重要人物是约翰·哈吉，他领导着一个名为‘基督徒联合支持以色列’的组织。

And so a very prominent figure that you probably know very well is John Hadji, who runs something called the Christians Unite for Israel.

该组织有七百万成员，这些人正在资助中东和以色列的许多冲突，因为他们是西岸定居点的主要资金提供者。

It's 7,000,000 members, and these are the people who are financing a lot of the conflict in The Middle East and Israel because they're the ones who are funding West Bank settlements.

因此，基督教锡安主义是美国一个极其强大的政治力量。

And so Christian Zionism, it is an extremely powerful political force in in America.

所以你的问题是，这一切是如何发生的？

So your question is, how did this happen?

是的。

And Yes.

问题在于，这一计划已经运作了数个世纪。

The the issue the issue is that this is a plan that has been in motion for centuries.

这是一段非常复杂的历史，涉及犹太教内部的不同宗教团体，比如萨巴特派和弗兰克派、哈西德派的卢巴维奇派，你之前提到过；同时也涉及共济会、圣殿骑士团和玫瑰十字会。

And it's a very complicated history, but it involves different religious groups among the Jews, Sabbath and Frankish, Shabbat Lubavitch, which you've talked about, but also it involves the Freemasons, the Knights Templars, the Rosicrucians.

这还涉及耶稣会。

It involves the Jesuits.

因此，这些不同的秘密社团和宗教组织数百年来协同合作，以实现这一末世计划，迎来弥赛亚时代。

So you have these different different secret societies, different religious organizations working together for the centuries to achieve this plan for the end of the world, which heralds the messianic age.

明白吗？

Okay?

这个计划包含多个组成部分，但基本要素之一是建立以色列这个国家，这发生在1948年。

And there are different components of this plan, but but the basic components are one is the creation of a state, the nation state of Israel, which happened in nineteen forty eight forty eight.

然后，你需要建造第三圣殿，这需要摧毁阿克萨清真寺，而根据我们迄今为止所见，这一事件可能在这场战争中发生。

And then you you need to have the building of the third temple, requires the destruction of the Al Aztec mosque, which is actually which could happen during this war act, given what we've seen so far.

在过去的几天里，以色列人已经关闭了阿克萨清真寺以及圣墓教堂等其他宗教场所，禁止游客进入。

So the Israelis have closed off the Al Aztec Mosque as well as other religious sites like the Church Of Holy Sepulchre to tourists these past few days.

有传言称，过去两年里，以色列人一直在阿克萨清真寺下方进行考古挖掘，旨在破坏清真寺的地基，以便实施可控爆破，并将责任嫁祸给伊朗的导弹袭击。

There's rumors that for the past two years, the Israelis have been conducting these archaeological digs under the Alaskan mosque to basically destroy the foundations of the mosque so so that they they can conduct a controlled demolition of the mosque and blame it on a missile strike from the Iranians.

以色列内部甚至有人讨论利用这一计划挑起阿拉伯人与波斯人之间的战争。

And there's actually talk among Israelis of using this plan to ignite a war between the Arabs and Persians.

所以，为了建造第三圣殿，必须摧毁阿克萨清真寺。

So the Alaskan mosque needs to be destroyed for the 3rd Temple.

他们还谈论着以色列与全世界之间的歌革和玛各之战，随后是犹太救世主的降临、大以色列计划的实现，以及所有散居犹太人的回归。

They also talk about this war of Gog and Magog between Israel and the entire world, then the coming of the Jewish Messiah, the creation of the Greater Israel Project, the return of all Jews from the diaspora.

所以，这个计划包含多个组成部分。

So so there are different components to this plan.

如果你只是观察地缘政治事件，就会发现这些事件如今正在汇聚在一起。

If you just observe geopolitical events, we're seeing these events converge together today.

我的意思是，所有这些事件都在上演。

I mean, all these events are playing out.

因此，似乎有一股非常强大的幕后力量在操控着这一切。

So it seems as though there are these very powerful shadow forces working behind the scenes.

我们不知道他们是谁，但看起来他们能够以某种方式操控地缘政治，以实现他们的末世剧本。

We don't know who they are, but it seems as though they're able to control geopolitics in a certain manner as to fulfill their eschatological script.

你认为唐纳德·特朗普在这个计划中扮演了什么角色？

What what role do you think Donald Trump plays in this?

这个问题很难回答。

That's a really hard question to answer.

所以让我们来看看不同的可能性。

So so let's look at different possibilities.

好的。

Okay.

第一种可能是，他被当作演员使用，只是按照剧本行事，但他并不知道这部电影最终会走向何方。

The first possibility is that he's been employed as an actor and he's just following a script but he doesn't really know where this movie is going.

他只是完成自己的部分，但背后却被身边的人操控。

He's just doing his part but he's been he's manipulated behind the scenes by people around him.

当记者问他，为什么这场针对伊朗的战争会发生时，

And, you know, when reporters asked him, like, why is this war in Iran happening?

他曾表示，他的顾问们——包括塞弗林·科夫、贾里德·库什纳、彼得·海克塞夫、马可·卢比奥——告诉他，伊朗人即将获得核武器，而且是伊朗先发动了攻击，因此我基本上是被误导了。

He did say that his advisers, which includes Severin Koff, Jared Kushner, Peter Heksef, Marco Rubio, told him that the Iranians were so close to getting a nuclear weapon and that the Iranians were attacked first, and so I was basically misled.

我认为这很可能是真的，因为特朗普身边围绕着一些具有特定政治末世论议程的人。

And I think I think that's probably true in that Trump surrounds himself with certain people that have a certain political eschatological agenda.

所以这是一种可能性，他只是一个演员。

So that's one possibility that he's just he's just an actor.

另一种可能性是他自己有一种救世主般的使命感。

Another possibility is that he himself has a messianic calling.

明白吗？

Okay?

我的意思是，如果你回溯到2021年，那时他在政治上已经死了，对吧？因为那一年发生了六次骚乱，他被弹劾了两次，离任后还面临法律上的追诉，甚至破产了。

And what I mean by that is if you go back to '20 during 2021, he was politically dead, right, because during six riots happened, He he was impeached twice and then after he left office, there was lawfare conducted against him and he went bankrupt.

所以，仿佛整个世界都与他为敌。

And so so it was it was as though the entire world went against him.

但他现在却成了美国总统。

But now he's president of of The United States.

那么，他个人会如何理解这一切呢？

And so how how would he personally understand this?

我认为，很大程度上是因为上帝召唤他来服务。

I think a lot of it is God has asked him to serve.

有一种召唤要他去服务，他必须完成一项使命。

There's a call to serve, and he has to fulfill a mission.

这项使命究竟是什么？无论是拯救以色列，还是拯救美国，抑或是更大计划的一部分，只有他本人心里清楚。

What this mission is, okay, what this mission is, whether it's to save Israel, whether it's save America, whether it's a part of a grander scheme, only he in his heart knows.

我认为除了他之外，没人知道。

And I think no one except him knows.

明白吗？

Okay?

所以我认为这是另一种可能性。

So I think that's another possibility.

第三种可能性是，这一切都是以色列的安排。

And the third possibility is that this is all Israel's doing.

内塔尼亚胡是那个逼他陷入这种境地的人，因为以色列率先发动了攻击，而马可·卢比奥也说过这一点，你知道吗？

Netanyahu is the one who's forced him into this sort of situation because Israel attacked first and Marco Rubio said this where, you know what?

我们本来希望进行谈判，但以色列早已计划好要发动攻击。

We we we wanted these negotiations, but the Israelis were planning to to attack.

如果他们发动了攻击，伊朗将被迫同时攻击美国人和以色列人。

If they attacked, the Iranians would be compelled to attack both the Americans and the Israelis.

我们不希望让我们的士兵陷入危险，所以我们和以色列人一起发动了攻击。

And we did not want to put our soldiers in harm's way, so we attacked with the Israelis.

明白吗？

Okay?

所以，这可能是内塔尼亚胡及其所有阴谋的结果。

So it's possible this is Netanyahu and all his machinations.

还有一种第四种可能性，那就是他们已经收买了他。

And another fourth possibility is they have they they have co opted him.

比如，有人掌握了把柄威胁他。

Like, there's blackmail on him.

而且他别无选择，只能照做，因为他本身已经被牵制，也许他的家人也受到了威胁。

There's and and he has up to no choice but to do what he says because he's compromised in a certain way, and maybe his family is under threat.

所以这四种可能性都存在。

So all four are possibilities.

老实说，我不知道哪种可能性最正确。

And quite honestly, I have no idea which possibility is the most correct.

是的。

Yeah.

我认为没人知道，我也一直尽量把猜测降到最低。

I don't I don't think I don't think anybody does, and I've really tried to keep, you know, speculation to a minimum.

你总是希望人们的动机是透明的，希望他们能说明自己这么做的原因。

You always want to believe that people's motives are transparent, that they state why they're doing what they're doing.

但当然，你永远无法知道一个人内心的真实想法。

But of course, you can never know what's inside a man.

对吧？

Right?

甚至在自己身上，你也常常难以弄清自己的真实动机。

Even in yourself, it's hard to know your own motives very often.

所以我觉得这是个明智的看法。

So I think that's a that's a wise take.

北美和美国会发生什么？

What happens to North America, United States?

我也想把墨西哥和加拿大包括进来。

And I do want to include Mexico and Canada.

我们很少考虑这些国家，但它们都是面积广大的陆地，拥有庞大的人口，而且是我们邻国。

We don't think a lot about those countries, but they're both massive land masses and they have big populations and they're our neighbors.

因此，如果世界正在重新调整，我认为你需要从大陆的角度，而不仅仅是国家层面来思考。

And so if the world is reorienting, I think you need to think in terms of continents rather than just nation states.

三四年之后，这种情况会是什么样子？

What what does that look like in three or four years?

对。

Right.

因此，从地缘政治的角度来看，如果美国被迫撤回西半球，它就需要关注资源问题。

So from a geopolitical perspective, if America is forced to retreat back into the Western Hemisphere, it needs to worry about resources.

所以，美国最终吞并并殖民加拿大和墨西哥，符合其自身利益。

And so it is in the best interest of America to eventually take over and colonize both Canada and Mexico.

是的。

Yes.

墨西哥提供劳动力，加拿大提供资源。

Mexico for its labor supply, Canada for its resources.

你知道，加拿大可能是世界上最有财富的国家。

You know, Canada's probably the wealthiest country in the world.

我知道。

I know.

因此，从地缘政治角度来看，如果世界转向自给自足，出现重商主义和贸易壁垒，那么美国别无选择，只能确保自己的供应链。

And so from a geopolitical perspective, if the world is retreating into self sufficiency, if there's mercantilism, if there's trade barriers, then America has absolutely no choice but to ensure its own supply networks.

这意味着最终要控制格陵兰、加拿大、墨西哥、拉丁美洲、古巴和委内瑞拉。

And that that means eventually taking over Greenland, Canada, Mexico, Latin America, Cuba, Venezuela.

所以美国在这件事上其实没有太多选择。

So America doesn't really have much choice in this matter.

与此同时，我们看到这场战争以及其他事件正在美国国内引发政治裂痕，尤其是左右派之间的分歧。

At the same time, what we're seeing is that this war, as well as other events, are causing political fissures in America, especially between left and right.

所以看看今年一月明尼阿波利斯发生的事。

So witness what happened in Minneapolis in January.

对吧？

Right?

因此，随着这场战争持续下去，唐纳德·特朗普极有可能下令实施全国征兵，以确保有足够的兵力投入这场战争，届时街头将爆发骚乱，出现大规模暴力事件，国民警卫队将被派往镇压。

And so we can expect that as this war continues, and there's a strong possibility that Donald Trump will call up a national draft in order to ensure the manpower to fight this war, then you will have rioting in the streets, you have massive violence, in which case the National Guard is deployed.

计划在四月前向所有主要美国城市部署国民警卫队。

There's a plan to deploy the National Guard to all major American cities by April.

因此，不幸的是，美国可能会经历长达数年的教派暴力冲突。

And so, unfortunately, America is probably going to suffer a long, many years of sectarian violence.

这不是一场全面的内战，但可能类似于爱尔兰的动荡时期。

Not a full fledged civil war, but maybe something along the lines of the troubles in Ireland.

你知道吗，我不确定你有没有看过那部糟糕的电影《一场接一场的战斗》。

You know, I'm not sure if you've seen this terrible movie called One Battle After Another.

顺便说一句，那部电影真的很烂。

It's just a terrible movie, by the way.

但你知道，这让你对内战可能的样子有了洞察，即这些叛乱团体与国家对抗。

But, you know, it it gives you insight into what a civil war might look like where you have these insurgent groups fighting against the the state.

是的。

So yeah.

但你认为美国会作为一个连贯的民族国家维持下去吗？

But you expect The United States to hang together as a coherent nation state?

听我说，塔克。

Listen, Tucker.

美国是世界上最伟大的国家。

The United States is the greatest nation in the world.

美国人民开放、慷慨、富有创业精神、充满活力。

The people are open, generous, entrepreneurial, energetic.

美国的资源是无穷无尽的。

The resources of America are infinite.

美国就像一座堡垒，受到两大洋的保护。

America is a kind of fortress so that it's protected by two oceans.

美洲没有一个与美国实力相当的竞争对手。

America doesn't have a peer competitor in North America and South America.

所以，我的意思是，无论发生什么，美国都会因为人民充沛的活力和创造力而表现得相当不错。

And so, I mean, America, regardless of what happens, America will still come out doing pretty well just because of the pure energy and creativity of of its people.

你刚才提到了加拿大。

What So you mentioned Canada.

大多数美国人甚至不知道加拿大的首都是哪里。

Most Americans don't even know the capital of Canada.

加拿大根本不在他们的关注范围内。

Canada does not appear on their radar.

是的。

Yeah.

他们根本不会想到加拿大。

Doesn't figure in their thoughts.

但你却说它可能是世界上最富有的国家。

But you described it as probably, quote, probably the richest country in the world.

我认为这客观上是正确的。

I think that's objectively true.

然而，加拿大并不是一个富裕的国家。

And yet Canada is not a rich country.

事实上，它正在变穷。

In fact, it's getting poor.

它的预期寿命正在下降。

Its life expectancy is declining.

它的国内生产总值正在下降。

Its GDP is declining.

这是有意为之的。

And that's on purpose.

加拿大这个国家一直被有意压制。

The nation of Canada has been suppressed on purpose.

其人口通过国家主导的协助自杀计划被逐渐消灭，同时通过大规模移民改变人口结构，而这些都违背了民众的意愿。

Its population is being killed off by the state through its assisted suicide program, and its population is changing through mass immigration against the will of the population.

所以这个国家是被有意压制的。

So that country is being held down on purpose.

我的问题是，是谁做的？为什么？

And my question is, by whom and why?

当然。

Sure.

这是个很好的问题。

That's a great question.

这一直是我在思考的问题，因为我是一名加拿大公民。

And this is something that I struggle with all the time because I am a Canadian citizen.

我在那里上过学。

I went to school there.

所以我的答案是，加拿大从来就不是一个真正的民族国家，它更像一个被美化了的资源殖民地，是的。

So my answer is that Canada was never really a nation state, it's more of a glorified resource sorry, glorified resource colony Yes.

对于英国来说，伦敦这座城市。

For the British, the city of London.

而现实是，如今英国面临巨大压力，伦敦城也承受着巨大的财政压力。

And the reality is now that the British are under a lot of strain, the city of London is under a lot of financial pressure.

它将目光投向了澳大利亚、新西兰和加拿大。

It sees places like Australia, New Zealand and Canada.

如果你面临财务问题，你会怎么做？

And what do you do if you have financial issues?

嗯，企业的话，你会进行企业重组，对吧？

Well, corporate you you do corporate restructuring, right?

你会调整中层管理，对吧？

You change the middle management, right?

历史上，英国人和印度精英相处得非常好，对吧？

And historically, you know, the British got along very well with the Indian elite, Right?

他们进入印度，从印度人那里掠夺了数万亿美元，而印度精英却非常乐意帮助他们。

They went into India and stole trillions of dollars from the Indians, and the elite, the Indian elite were perfectly happy to help them.

对吧？

Right?

那为什么不对澳大利亚、加拿大也采用同样的模式呢？

So why not use the same model for Australia, for Canada?

你知道，过去五年里有数百万印度人移民到加拿大，这给加拿大经济带来了巨大压力，因为房价已经暴涨，普通加拿大人再也买不起房子了，同时对加拿大福利体系和经济也造成了巨大压力。

So, you know, there are millions of Indians who immigrated to Canada in the past five years and it's put a lot of strain on the Canadian economy because housing prices are, you know, have have exploded and so ordinary Canadians can no longer afford to buy a house And it's put tremendous pressure on the Canadian welfare welfare system, on the Canadian economy.

你可能会认为，正确的策略应该是实施一个暂停措施，比如：你知道吗？

And you would think that the proper strategy would have a moratorium where they're like, you know what?

我们接收的移民太多了，需要关闭边境，逐步吸收这些移民，以确保他们能获得合适的住房。

We've had too many immigrants and we need to close the borders and absorb these immigrants because we want to ensure that these immigrants have proper housing.

他们能有体面的工作。

They have decent jobs.

对吧？

Right?

你可能会觉得，这才是正确的策略。

You would think that that that'd be the right strategy.

是的。

Yes.

但相反，马克·卡尼却去印度说，我们想要更多的印度人。

But instead, Mark Mark Carney goes to India and says, we want more Indians.

而且，我们还会提供奖学金，让你免费来加拿大留学。

And also, we'll give you scholarships to come to Canada to study for free.

与此同时，许多加拿大人无家可归、失业，连吃饭都成问题，但嘿，我们却想要更多的印度人。

Meanwhile, there are a lot of Canadians who are homeless, who are unemployed, and who cannot put food on the table, but, hey, we want more Indians.

所以，如果这不是企业重组，也不是试图剥离加拿大，我真的不明白这种策略的用意何在。

So if it's not corporate restructuring, if it's not trying to access strip Canada, I really don't understand the strategy for this.

我的意思是，这实际上是对加拿大人的某种种族灭绝，那些祖先建设了这个国家的人。

Well, I mean, it's a kind of genocide, right, against Canadians, people whose ancestors built the country.

但你不禁要问，这样做的目的是什么？

But you wonder what the purpose is.

因为这种现象正在整个西方、整个英语世界、所有白人国家普遍发生，这绝非偶然。

Because it is happening all over the West, all over the English speaking world in the white countries, and it's not an accident.

这不是自然形成的。

It's not organic.

所以这是一个宏观的图景，从澳大利亚到渥太华都涵盖在内。

So it's a big picture, you know, that spans from Australia to Ottawa.

那这究竟是什么呢？

And what is that?

你知道吗？

Do you know?

没错。

Right.

让我们看看欧洲，因为在2014年，欧洲发生了一个重大转折点，当时有数千万难民试图逃离中东的战争，你知道，这些战争是由美国在中东发动的。

So let's look at Europe, Because in 2014, this was a major turning point in Europe because you have these tens of millions of refugees trying to escape these wars in The Middle East, you know, created by America's wars in The Middle East.

他们试图抵达欧洲。

And they were trying to reach Europe.

在那个时候，欧洲面临一个选择。

And at this point, Europe had a choice.

它可以选择关闭边境，维护自己的文化认同，或者敞开大门。

It could choose to close its borders and maintain its cultural identity or it could open the floodgates.

德国总理安吉拉·默克尔说过一句非常著名的话，深深印在我的脑海里：我们能做到。

And Angela Merkel, the chancellor of Germany, she she said something really, really famous and that which stuck in my mind, which is we can do this.

我们是欧洲人。

We are Europeans.

somehow 我们能够接纳数百万难民，欢迎他们融入我们的社会，并让整个社会繁荣发展。

Somehow we can take in these millions of refugees and welcome welcome them to into our societies and thrive as a people.

但完全相反的情况发生了。

And the complete opposite has happened.

你看到数百万难民逃入欧洲，但请注意，这并不是他们的选择，而是因为他们的国家被摧毁了。

You've got millions of these refugees who fled into Europe, not because of their choice, by the way, but because their nations were devastated.

对吧？

Right?

利比亚、叙利亚、阿富汗、伊拉克都在针对中东恐怖主义的战争中遭到严重破坏。

Libya, Syria, Afghanistan, Iraq were all devastated in in these wars in against terror in The Middle East.

于是他们逃了出来，这些是充满自豪感的穆斯林。

So they go, and these are proud Islamists.

他们热爱自己的宗教。

They they they love their religion.

他们热爱自己的家庭。

They love their family.

他们热爱自己的社区。

They love the community.

因此，他们不会融入并同化到欧洲社会中。

And so they're not going to absorb themselves and assimilate themselves into Europe.

而如今，你知道，你在许多城市看到的是人口更替。

And and today, you know, you're looking at population replacement in a lot of cities.

你去英国的某些地方，可能会以为自己身在开罗或巴格达。

You go to certain places in Britain, and you might think you're in Cairo or Baghdad.

这已经在欧洲各地引发了巨大的冲突。

And and this has caused tremendous conflict throughout Europe.

如果两到四年后，英国和法国等地爆发内战或起义，我一点也不感到惊讶。

I would not be surprised in if, like, two to four years' time, you have civil war break out, insurgencies break out in places like Britain and and and France.

所以问题来了，为什么这件事同时在全球各地发生？

So the question is, why is this happening throughout the world at the same time?

没错。

Exactly.

为什么这些不同的国家，无论是欧洲的、加拿大的还是澳大利亚的，都在推行相同的政策，不仅是在新冠疫情上，还包括移民政策？

Why is it that these different nations, whether they're European, whether they're Canadian or Australian, why are they adopting the same policies, not just in of COVID, right, but also in terms of like immigration.

因此，这是我们不得不思考的关于当今世界的一个重大问题。

And so that's the one of the great questions that we have to ask about the world we we live in today.

这看起来几乎像是西方文明的有计划拆除。

It seems as though it's almost a controlled demolition of Western civilization.

对吧？

Right?

英语圈，西欧。

The Anglosphere, Western Europe.

这些国家似乎正被有意识地摧毁。

It seems as though these nations are are being destroyed purposely.

为了什么目的？

For what end?

我不知道。

I I don't know.

但我只想说，已经出现了一种特定的模式，其结果只能是这些社会的有计划瓦解。

But I would just say there's a certain pattern that has emerged, and the result can only end up in the controlled demolition of these societies.

我不认为这还有讨论的余地。

I don't think I don't I don't even think that's up for debate.

我的意思是，看看基本的数据就知道了。

I mean, of course, just look at the bottom line numbers.

你知道的？

You know?

当然，白人人口是被有意消灭的，问题在于为什么。

Of course, the white populations are being killed on purpose, and the question is why.

我完全不知道原因，我知道有很多关于谁在背后操纵的猜测。

And I don't have the faintest idea, and I know there's a lot of speculation as to who's doing it.

我直说吧，我不知道。

I'll just say bluntly, I don't know.

我的意思是，我知道那些工具是谁，但基尔·斯塔默并没有掌控英国。

I mean, I know who the instruments are, of course, but Keir Starmer is not in charge of Great Britain.

马克龙也没有掌控法国。

Macron is not in charge of France.

我不确定究竟有多少领导人真正掌控着自己的国家。

I'm not sure how many leaders really do have control of their countries.

我不知道究竟还有多少国家真正拥有主权。

I don't know how many countries actually have sovereignty.

我真的不知道答案，但肯定有什么事情正在发生，历史上有过类似的先例吗？

I really don't know the answer, but something is going Is there any precedent for this in history?

作为历史学家，你见过这样的情况吗？

Have you ever seen anything like this as a historian?

对。

Right.

所以你看乌克兰正在发生的事，那场战争已经输了。

So you look at what's happening in Ukraine where the war is lost.

这场战争两年前就输了。

It was lost two years ago.

乌克兰已经损失了一百多万作战人员。

The Ukrainians have lost over a million fighting men.

许多乌克兰人已经逃往海外。

A lot of their people have fled overseas.

无论这场战争如何发展，乌克兰作为主权国家已经终结。

No matter what happens in this war, Ukraine is finished as a nation state.

它不再是一个可行的主权国家。

It is no longer viable as a nation state.

与其在失败中与普京达成停火协议，欧洲人却在说要征召我们的士兵去乌克兰的战壕里作战，这无异于自杀，因为俄罗斯在战场上凭借无人机、火炮和战壕占据绝对优势。

And rather than amid defeat and come to a ceasefire with Putin, what the Europeans are doing is they're saying that we're gonna draft our men and have them fight in the trenches of Ukraine, which would be suicide because the Russians dominate the battlefield with their drones and artillery and trenches in Ukraine.

所以这几乎就像是一场自杀式任务。

So so it's almost like like a suicide mission.

但不仅如此，德国人还表示，好吧，我们只能征召德国男性，而不能征召穆斯林男性，因为我们担心他们的忠诚度，这意味着你面临这样一种情况：像英国人、法国人、德国人这样的本地男性被派去乌克兰的战壕送死，而在国内，你却有一群没有融入你们文化的移民人口。

But not only that, but the Germans have said that, okay, we we can only draft German men but not Islamic men because we we we're afraid of their loyalty, which means that you have a situation where, you know, local men like British, French, German men are being sent to die in the trenches of Ukraine, and, you know, back at home, you have these immigrant population that have not assimilated into your culture.

所以这真是一个非常奇怪的策略，我不知道谁会想出这种东西。

So it's so so it's a really weird strategy, and I don't know who comes up with this sort of with this sort of stuff.

而且你看，历史上根本没有先例。

And look, there's no historical precedent for this.

根本就没有。

There just isn't.

我的意思是，确实发生过大规模移民的事件。

I mean, there's been incidents of mass immigration.

你可以回溯到罗马帝国灭亡时期，当时成群的移民涌入罗马，要同化如此多的人几乎是不可能的。

You go you go go back to the fall of the Roman Empire and how these, you know, hordes of immigrants flooded the the Romans, and it's almost impossible to assimilate so many people.

最终，一定会发生文化上的取代。

Eventually, there's gonna there's gonna be a cultural takeover.

最终，当这么多人都坚持保持自己文化身份时，由于他们比你们生育更多孩子，最终他们会淹没你们的文化认同。

Eventually, with so many people who are insistent on maintaining their their cultural identity, eventually, because because they have more children than you, eventually they're going to overwhelm your cultural identity.

是的

Yeah.

而且我认为这正是历史的写照。

And I do think that is the story of history.

一个族群取代另一个族群。

One population replacing another.

根本不存在多元文化主义。

There's no such thing as multiculturalism.

总有一个主导文化，当然，它会坚持自己的主导地位。

There's always a dominant culture that, you know, that insists on dominance, of course.

我只是不认为曾经有人认为这种事能在全球范围内发生，比如系统性地在全球范围内针对某一族群进行消灭。

I just don't think there's ever been anyone who thought this could happen globally, like a systematic targeting of a race for elimination globally.

我的意思是，直到最近之前这还不可能，但弄清楚他们的计划是什么会很有趣。

I mean, well, it wasn't possible until pretty recently, but it would be interesting to know what the plan is.

这背后显然有一个计划。

There's clearly like a plan behind that.

每件事背后都有一个计划。

There's a plan behind everything.

我想知道，你认为有多少美国人真正理解当今世界正在发生的事情？

I wonder how many Americans do you think understand what's actually happening in the world right now?

你知道，不幸的是，如果你在美国接受教育，比如我上过耶鲁大学，耶鲁大学，所以我认识很多这些常春藤盟校的人。

You know, unfortunately, I think that if you are educated in America, you know, I went to Yale, Yale, and so I know a lot of these Ivy League people.

是的。

Yes.

不幸的是，我们被灌输了某些价值观，而这些价值观是不容质疑的。

Unfortunately, we've been indoctrinated to believe certain values, and these values are not questionable.

例如，曾经有一个关于密歇根大学平权行动的案件上诉到最高法院。

So so for example, there was a court case that went to the supreme court about affirmative action at the University of Michigan.

平权行动明显违背了美国的价值观，违背了美国的精英 meritocracy 理念。

And affirmative action is clearly against American values, against the idea of American meritocracy.

对吧？

Right?

但最高法院却认为平权行动是好的，因为多样性本身就是一种内在的善。

But the supreme supreme court said that affirmative action was good because diversity is an inherent good.

明白吗？

Okay?

有趣的是，如果你去耶鲁、哈佛或任何这些常春藤盟校，实际上多样性非常有限。

And and it's interesting because if you go go to a place like Yale or Harvard or any of these Ivy League schools, there's actually very little diversity.

我指的是思想上的多样性。

I'm talking about intellectual diversity.

是的。

Yes.

对。

Yeah.

我的意思是，虽然肤色不同。

I mean, like, there's different skin color.

但如果你真正观察他们在课堂上讨论的思想，会发现这是一个非常趋同的环境。

But if you actually look at the ideas that they engage with in a classroom, it's a very conformist setting.

所以这是一个巨大的讽刺，某种平权行动本应为课堂带来多样性。

So it's one these great ironies where a form of affirmative action is supposed to bring diversity to the classroom.

但如果你去任何精英学校的课堂，都会发现它极其同质化。

But if you go to any classroom in an elite setting, it's extremely conformist.

你不能提出关于人口替代、移民这类问题，因为那样你会被贴上种族主义者的标签，而这是最糟糕的称号，对吧？

You're not allowed to bring up these issues about, you know, population replacement, immigration because then you become you'd be called a racist because and that's the worst thing to be called, right?

我的意思是，你宁愿被人叫恋童癖，对吧？

It's I mean, like, you're better off you're better off being called a pedophile, right?

现在恋童癖的权利比种族主义者还多。

Pedophiles have more rights now than than than racist.

所以，不幸的是，这不仅仅是当前事件中发生的事，也发生在课堂和流行文化中——人们甚至不被允许提出那些显而易见的问题，比如随便走上任何西方城市的街头。

So, unfortunately, it's not just what's happening in current events, it's also what's happening in the classroom where and in in the popular culture where people are not even allowed to ask questions that are, like, blindly obvious and just walk the streets of any, you know, western city.

你环游过世界。

You've lived around the world.

我想你现在在中国。

I think you're now in China.

世界上其他地方的人看得更清楚吗？

Does the rest of the world see this more clearly?

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，如果你不在西方，没有受到学校里灌输的这种洗脑式教育的话。

I mean, if you're not in the West and you're not if you're not subjected to this brainwashing indoctrination that they feed you in the schools.

这很明显。

It's, I mean, it's obvious.

再说了，只要你随便走在西方任何一个主要城市的街头，这一点对任何人来说都显而易见。

Again, it's bluntly obvious to anyone if you just walk the streets of any major city in the West.

中国有个笑话，非常流行：中国人其实并不喜欢去加拿大旅游。

So there's a joke in China and so popular so Chinese don't actually like to go to Canada for tourism.

有人问，为什么没人建议中国人去加拿大？

And someone asked, why don't why does why does anyone recommend Chinese going to Canada?

回答是：你会建议别人去印度吗？

And the response was, well, would you recommend someone going to India?

对吧？

Right?

所以这有点种族歧视。

So so it's a bit racist.

这真的很种族歧视。

I it's it's very racist.

明白吗？

Okay?

但我的意思是，大家其实都心知肚明。

But, I mean I mean, you know, it's obvious to people.

这很有趣，因为我不为白人辩护。

It's just interesting because, like, I'm not defending the whites.

我当然是白人。

I am white, of course.

但你知道，白人也做过很多坏事，就像其他人也会做很多坏事一样。

But, you know, white people have done a lot of bad things just like getting you know, people do a lot of bad things.

但总的来说，人们喜欢去你刚才提到的那些白人国家度假，因为那些地方真的很美。

But in general, people like to go on, as you just noted, vacation in white countries because they're pretty nice.

所以我认为，如果你抛开情绪，纯粹从整体来看，白人确实为世界做出了巨大贡献，发明了很多东西，创造了大量美，打造了人们喜欢去度假的地方——这其实是一个很好的检验标准。

So I think you'd to say if you took the emotion out of it and just, like, looked at it net net, whites have been, you know, pretty big addition to the world, invented a lot of stuff, created a lot of beauty, created places people like to go on vacation, which really is a good test.

那为什么你要摧毁这一切呢？

So why would you destroy all that?

听好了。

Look.

在我的学校，我教的是伟大的著作。

So in my school, I teach you great books.

我教的是西方文明。

I teach Western civilization.

我教的是荷马、赫西俄德、《奥德赛》。

I teach Homer, Paleo, The Odyssey.

我教的是柏拉图的《理想国》，但丁的《神曲》，还有《圣经》，我的学生都很喜欢，因为西方文明并不只是关于人们是否白人，而是关乎作为人意味着什么。

I teach Plato, Republic, I teach Dante, the Divine Comedy, I teach the Bible, and my students love it because Western civilization, it's it's it's just not about people being white, it's really about what it means to be human

对。

Right.

而它还关乎何为精神，以及如何与神圣建立联系。

And what it means to be spiritual and to have connections with with the divine.

因此，当世界最需要西方文明的时候，西方却决定摧毁自己的文明，这真是不幸。

So it's unfortunate that just when the world needs western civilization the most, the West decides to destroy its own civilization.

我的意思是，荷马、但丁、柏拉图、莎士比亚、《圣经》，这些都是永恒的经典，触及每一个人类的心灵。

I mean, Homer, Dante, Plato, Shakespeare, the Bible, these are timeless classics that speak to every human.

我知道这一点，因为我在中国教书，给那些完全不了解西方文化的学生授课，他们却依然爱上了柏拉图、但丁、荷马和莎士比亚。

I know because I teach in China to Chinese students who have absolutely no exposure to western culture yet they fall in love with Plato, Dante, Homer and Shakespeare.

为什么会这样？

And why is that?

这是因为他们的文字中蕴含着永恒的真理。

And it's because there is eternal truth embedded in their in their words.

因此，大学，尤其是西方大学，本应是守护西方文明的堡垒，却成了最严重的破坏者。

And so universities, western universities ought to be the places, the fortresses that are the greatest offenders of western civilization.

但如果你再去这些精英大学，比如耶鲁、哈佛，会发现它们对西方文明最为批判。

But if you go again to these elite universities, Yale, Harvard, they are the most critical of Western civilization.

它们根本不教荷马、但丁和柏拉图。

They don't they don't teach Homer and Dante and Paleovans.

如果你不教这些经典，那大学的意义何在？

And it's like, if you don't teach these classics, what's the purpose of university?

我一直以为大学是文明的心脏和中心，对吧？

I always I always thought the university was the heart and center of civilization, right?

它就像中世纪中期的修道院一样。

It it it it it's like what monasteries were in the mid medieval age.

我原以为这些教授会毕生致力于弘扬经典，但如今他们却在推广像DEI这样的完全荒谬的东西，还有是的。

And I thought these professors, they they would dedicate their lives to promoting the classics, but instead, they now promote complete nonsense like DEI and yeah.

所有这些中，我的最后一个问题是，教授。

Of all the I mean, this is my last question, professor.

谢谢您。

And thank you.

这是一场非常愉快的对话，我希望这不会是我们最后一次交流，也希望当我们身处同一大陆时能一起吃顿饭。

It's been a wonderful conversation, and I hope it won't be our last, and I and I hope we can have dinner when we're on the same continent.

但这是我的最后一个问题。

But this is my last question.

既然您游历广泛，居住过许多地方，还会多种语言，您认为哪个地区最敌视您刚才所描述的西方文明？

Since you've traveled so much and lived so many places and speak multiple languages, where would you say the part of the world that's most hostile to Western civilization as you just described it is?

我想弄清楚这种敌意究竟从何而来。

Trying to understand where this hostility is coming from.

我会说，是加拿大、英国和西欧。

Well, I would say Canada, Britain, Western Europe.

我认为这些地方对西方文明最为敌视。

I would say these places are the most hostile towards Western civilization.

中国人对西方文明有着极大的尊重。

Chinese people have tremendous respect for western civilization.

事实上，在中国，我们在推广经典的过程中，会学习柏拉图、荷马、莎士比亚，因为中国人认识到这些经典中蕴含着巨大的文化价值和永恒的真理。

In fact, in China's, you know, in the process of promoting the classics, Plato, Homer, Shakespeare, in China because Chinese recognize the tremendous cultural value and immense eternal truths embedded in these classics.

所以我们现在处于一种非常奇怪的境地，西方正在通过抛弃使其伟大的东西——也就是这些经典著作——来毁灭自己。

So so we we're in a very weird situation where the West is destroying itself by abandoning what makes it great, which is, you know, these classics.

我觉得如果我们再聊下去，我可能会在镜头前哭出来。

I think if we talk longer, I'm going to start to cry on camera.

所以我要在这里做个情绪上的暂停，教授。

So I'm going to I'm going to take an emotional break here, professor.

谢谢您。

Thank you.

好的。

Okay.

不。

No.

我不是有意让你难过的。

What's I did not mean to upset you.

对不起。

Sorry.

我半开玩笑的。

I'm half kidding.

不。

No.

这让我情感上产生共鸣，因为我知道你在说真话，这与我所看到的一切都相符。

It's it's emotionally resonant for me because I know that you're telling the truth, and it comports with everything that I've seen.

所以，接受一件真实的事情很难，但不幸的是，我认为你说的是对的。

And so it's hard to accept something that's true, but I think what you're saying is true, unfortunately.

为此，我祝福你，希望很快能再见到你。

So bless you for this, and I hope to see you again soon.

谢谢。

Thank you.

是的。

Yeah.

我真的很享受这次对话，塔克。

I really enjoyed it, Tucker.