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到目前为止，普遍公认的是，继续与伊朗的战争不符合美国的明确利益。
It's universally recognized at this point pretty much that continuing this war with Iran is not in the identifiable interest of The United States.
无论从哪个角度来看，继续这场战争我们都得不到任何好处。
We don't get anything out of continuing it by anyone's measure.
如果你对此存疑，不妨问问自己：上一次有人冷静、理性、不带情绪地，用要点或PPT清晰地解释我们如何在战争持续更久的情况下获胜，是什么时候？
And if you doubt that, ask yourself, when was the last time someone explained coolly and without emotion, maybe with bullet points or a PowerPoint, how exactly we win if this goes on longer?
根本不存在一个站得住脚的论点。
There's no real argument to be made.
如果战争继续下去，美国不会获胜，任何人都无法否认这一点。
The United States does not win if this goes on longer, and no one can claim otherwise.
人们可能会跳起来攻击你，因为你提出了这个问题，但他们无法理性地告诉你，这场战争持续下去，你如何能更安全、更繁荣，你的孩子如何能在美利坚合众国过上更好的生活。
People can jump up and down and attack you for asking, but they can't tell you rationally how you're going to be safer and more prosperous, how your children will lead better lives here in The United States if this goes on.
所以，人人都知道，我们应该以一种保护美国核心利益、避免必要羞辱、并为该地区带来某种稳定的方式结束这场战争，正如他们所说的那样。
So, everybody knows it's in our interest to wrap this up in a way that protects core American interests, of course, that avoids the necessary humiliation, that brings some stability to the region, as they say.
但关键是，必须结束它。
But wrap it up.
而且政府也明白这一点。
And the administration understands this.
特朗普政府显然明白这一点，因为就在过去24小时的新闻报道中，我们得知总统正在考虑或计划——取决于你相信谁的说法——派遣副总统去与伊朗人达成某种协议。
The Trump administration clearly understands this because news reports just in the last twenty four hours have told us that the president is thinking about or planning to, depending on who you believe, dispatch the vice president to hammer out some kind of deal with the Iranians.
如果真的发生这种情况，我们只是重复所读到的内容，那么这无疑是一个明确的信号，表明政府希望宣告胜利并抽身而出，至少是想要抽身而出。
And if that happens, and we don't know, just repeating what we read, then that's a pretty clear sign that the administration wants to declare victory and move on, certainly to move on.
他们几乎不可能选出比他更可信的人来完成这项任务。
And they probably couldn't pick a more credible person to do it.
抛开意识形态不谈，副总统聪明且诚实。
Ideology aside, the vice president is smart, is honest.
他不是那种在政府任职期间发财的人。
He's not one of the people who's gotten richer in government service.
他可能是那些在政府服务期间反而变穷的人之一，这恰恰是衡量一个人道德操守的很好标准。
He's probably one of the people who got poorer in government service, which is a pretty good measure of someone's moral rectitude.
而且他理解权力的动态。
And he understands power dynamics.
因此，我们正在为此祈祷，希望这一努力能够成功，让双方——实际上是多方——能够达成协议，结束这场冲突，停止无辜者乃至战斗人员的死亡，阻止关键基础设施的破坏，恢复全球能源市场的稳定，最终实现和平。
And so we are praying for that, praying that that works, that the two sides, or multiple sides really, can come to terms and end this and stop the death of innocents or combatants for that matter, and stop the destruction of critical infrastructure and restore stability to global energy markets and basically make peace.
任何不希望看到这一结果的人，都应该回答一个问题：你为什么不愿意看到这样？
Anyone who doesn't want that should answer the question like, why don't you want that?
所以我们非常希望J.
So we're very much hoping that J.
D.
D.
万斯能够尽快促成此事。
Vance can get that done sometime soon.
但要实现这一点，他——或者政府——首先必须做一件事，这是任何有利于美国的和解或冲突结束的前提条件，那就是约束这场战争中的伙伴，显然这是它的完全伙伴：以色列。
But in order to do that, he's going to, or the administration will have to do one thing first, which is a prerequisite to any kind of settlement or really any kind of ending to this conflict that benefits The United States, and that's constrain its partner in this war, apparently its full partner, which is Israel.
除非你约束以色列，否则你无法实现你想要的目标。
You can't get what you want unless you constrain Israel.
这并不是对以色列的攻击。
It's not an attack on Israel.
这只是指出一个非常明显的事实，即每个国家都有其独特的利益。
It's just noting what's very obvious, which is that every nation has unique interests.
当你与另一个国家在战争中结盟时，尤其是可能演变为全球冲突的战争，你很可能期望不同的结果，因为你们是不同的国家。
And when you pair up with another nation in a war, particularly one that could flower into a global conflict, you're probably hoping for different outcomes because you're different countries.
这没什么奇怪的。
There's nothing weird about that.
以色列和美国并不相同，尽管他们可能会告诉你相反的说法。
Israel is not the same as The United States, despite what they may tell you.
它们是不同的，目标也不同。
It's different, and they have different goals.
因此，当我们十五年后评估这一切时，希望那时我们生活在一个繁荣兴盛的国家，我们会试图弄清楚这一切是如何发生的。
And so as we assess this fifteen years from now, hopefully in a prosperous, thriving country, we try to figure out how that happened.
我们最应该关注、最应追究责任的两个决定是：第一，在战争初期就杀死阿亚图拉，这立即限制了达成谈判解决的可能性，将原本可能只是狭隘的目标——消除伊朗的核计划、限制其制造更多导弹的能力等——转变为更庞大的目标，甚至可能是针对一个国家或一种宗教本身的战争。
The two decisions we probably should be zeroed in on and most anxious to apportion blame for are, number one, killing the Ayatollah in the very opening moments, which immediately limited the possibility of a negotiated settlement, turned what could have been a narrow objective, get rid of Iran's nuclear program, constraints ability to build more missiles, whatever, into something much larger, potentially a war against a nation itself or a war against a religion itself.
因此，任何理智的人都不会建议这样做，我们很可能应该弄清楚这是如何发生的。
So, no sober person would have recommended that, and we probably should find out how that happened.
并不是因为我们喜欢阿亚图拉，而是因为我们热爱美国，很难说这对我们是否有利。
Not because we love the Ayatollah, but because we love The United States, and it's hard to see if that was good for us.
第二个决定，也许甚至更重要，是决定与另一个国家紧密结盟，即以色列。
And the second decision, maybe even more important, was the decision to go into this joined at the hip to another nation, in this case, Israel.
这从来都不会成功。
That was never going to work.
它不可能成功。
It couldn't work.
这完全说不通。
It just doesn't make any sense.
所以，做出这个决定的人——当然是总统做出了决定，但谁建议总统这么做呢？
So, whoever made that decision, well, the president, of course, made the decision, but who would who advised the president to do that?
这到底是怎么发生的？
How did that happen?
当然，人们被 discouraging 去追问任何事情是如何发生的。
You're, of course, discouraged from asking how anything happened.
你被要求只是接受这些事情，对它们感到震惊，然后迅速放下，顺应潮流，而没有人被鼓励去追问为什么。
You're supposed to just accept things, be shocked by them, get over them, get with the program, and no one, no one is encouraged to ask why.
为什么？
How?
这简直就像一个宿醉的父亲在打发一个爱问为什么的五岁孩子：别再问为什么了。
It's almost like a father, a hungover dad brushing off an inquisitive five year old, stop asking why.
但我们不是五岁孩子。
But we're not five year olds.
我们是美国公民。
We're American citizens.
我们有绝对的权利知道，我们的国家为何被用于有害、损害我们的目的。
We have an absolute right to know why our country was put to bad use, to our detriment.
所以，当有人告诉你闭嘴或这是机密时，不要被吓倒。
And so don't be intimidated when people tell you shut up or that's classified.
不。
No.
我们有权知道这个决定是如何做出的，因为它根本没有帮到我们。
We have a right to know how that decision was made because it didn't help us at all.
而作为这个决定的产物，我们正承担着巨大的风险。
And as a product of that decision, we're putting an awful lot of risk.
所以，约束以色列、让它听话，它可比美国小得多。
So, constraining Israel, bringing it to heel, it's a much smaller country than The United States.
我们承担了他们大部分军费。
We pay for most of their military.
我们让这一切成为可能。
We make all of this possible.
因此，要求他们在这场冲突中遵守规矩，应该并不难。
So it shouldn't be hard to tell them to get in line, at least for the purposes of this conflict.
不要做损害我们核心利益的事情。
Don't do things that violate our core interests.
但到目前为止，不知为何，还没人能做到这一点。
But so far, no one's been able to do that for some reason.
再说一遍，这又是另一个‘为什么’的问题。
Again, another That's another why proposition.
为什么？
Why?
为什么会这么难？
Why would that be so hard?
如果加纳对我们这样做，我们会说：‘加纳，别这样。’
If Ghana was doing this to us, we'd say, Hey, Ghana, stop it.
但我们对以色列却没有这样做。
But we're not doing that with Israel.
因为我们对以色列没有这样做，以色列人感到完全自由，不仅公开宣布要追求自身利益而损害我们的利益，还通过这种方式羞辱美国政府和我们的国家。
And because we're not doing that with Israel, the Israelis feel completely free, not simply to make public announcements that they're going to pursue their own interests to the detriment of ours, but to humiliate the US government and our nation by so doing.
这可能是以色列独有的特点。
This is a feature that may be unique to Israel.
很难确切知道，但这无疑是我们与以色列关系中最明显的特点——一个持续的羞辱过程。
Hard to know exactly, But it's certainly the most obvious feature of our relationship with Israel, which is an ongoing humiliation process.
我们两天前采访了以色列前临时总统奥夫兰·伯格，他曾是议会领袖，非常了解以色列的政治与文化。
We spoke two days ago to the former interim president of Israel, Offran Berg, former Knesset leader, a guy who knows Israeli politics and culture.
他七十多岁了。
He's in his seventies.
他出生并一生都生活在以色列，对这个国家了如指掌。
He's born and lived there his whole life, knows the country well.
他未被问及就主动指出，以色列对待其他国家的一个特点就是羞辱。
And he noted unprompted that a feature of the way that Israel deals with other nations is humiliation.
仅仅达成协议是不够的。
It's not simply enough to come to terms.
你知道，我们双方都有点不满意。
You know, we're both a little bit dissatisfied.
这意味着这是一笔好交易。
That means it's a good deal.
你经常听到这种说法。
You often hear that.
这不是以色列的观点。
That's not the Israeli view.
以色列的观点是我必须摧毁你。
The Israeli view is I have to crush you.
我必须把脚踩在你脸上。
I have to put my boot in your face.
我必须让你黯然失色。
I have to diminish you.
我必须羞辱你。
I have to humiliate you.
那么，谁知道这种心态从何而来呢？
Now, who knows where that comes from?
但当你观察美国政府和以色列政府之间的互动时，你应该明白这一点，因为这种现象屡见不鲜。
But you should know it as you watch the interplay between the United States government and the Israeli government, because there's a whole lot of that.
这是一个完美的例子。
And here's a perfect example.
这不仅是一个战术问题，对美国政府来说，如何在这种情况下达成和平协议？
And this is both a problem, like a tactical problem for the US government, like how do you strike a peace deal with this kind of stuff going?
我们稍后会展示出来。
We'll show it to in a second.
但更深层的问题是，当我们目睹自己的国家被一个遥远小国羞辱，却得不到任何解释时，这种羞辱让你感到沮丧和气馁。
But it's also a deeper problem for us watching your country get humiliated by a tiny country in a faraway place and getting no explanation for why they're allowed to do that humiliates you and discourages you.
如果你长期关注此事，就会开始对自己的国家失去信心。
And if you watch it long enough, you start to lose faith in your own nation.
你会开始感到自己也被羞辱了。
You start to become humiliated yourself.
我们可以举出上百万个这样的例子，但这里先说一个。
So, we could pick a million examples of this, but here's one.
周一，总统在市场开盘前——这很有趣——宣布美国将撤回此前承诺的对伊朗民用基础设施和能源设施的打击行动。
So, Monday, the president, before markets open, which was interesting, announces that The United States is pulling back from his promise to start hitting civilian infrastructure, energy infrastructure in Iran.
我们这样做，是因为我们试图寻找某种谈判解决方案。
And we're doing that because we're going to try and find some negotiated settlement.
我们一直在与伊朗人沟通，这件事还有解决之道。
We've been talking to the Iranians and there is a way out of this.
我们不必走到全面战争的地步，不是针对伊朗政府、阿亚图拉或神权政体，或者我们声称在打击的任何一方，而是针对伊朗人民，切断他们的电力、断绝他们的饮用水，任由他们因暴露在寒冷中而死亡——对近一亿人口的国家发动全面战争。
We don't have to get to the point where we're waging total war, not just against the government of Iran or the Ayatollahs or the theocracy or whatever we say we're doing, but against the people of Iran, turning off their electricity, ending their drinking water, letting them die of exposure or whatever, total war against a country of almost 100,000,000 people.
没有人希望这样，或者说，没有人应该希望这样。
And nobody wants that, or at least no one should want that.
因此，总统宣布：我们在进行谈判。
So the president announced, Hey, we're in talks.
我们正在撤回。
We're pulling back.
但就在几个小时之内，我们在耶路撒冷的盟友、与我们一同卷入这场战争的本雅明·内塔尼亚胡发表了这份声明。
But within just a couple of hours, our partner in Jerusalem, Benjamin Netanyahu, the guy we're in this war with, issued this statement.
仔细听好。
Listen carefully.
以色列总理说：我们正在保护我们的核心利益，我们的核心利益。
We're safeguarding our vital interests, the prime minister of Israel said, our vital interests.
那么，这些所谓的重大利益究竟是什么？
Now, what are those vital interests?
实际上，没人真正解释过这一点。
Well, no one's really explained that.
甚至连以色列公众都不清楚，他们的总理所设想的国家‘重大利益’究竟涵盖多广。
Not even clear the Israeli public really knows the extent of their own country's, quote, vital interests as envisioned by their prime minister.
我们也不太确定。
We're not really sure.
但显然，这涉及领土扩张，将以色列的边界向外推移，占领他人的土地。
But clearly, they entail territorial expansion, moving the borders of Israel outward, taking other people's land.
以色列政府内部正是这样宣称的。
And they're saying that in the Israeli government.
这是一场胜利，因为我们已经将边界向外推进了。
This is a win because we've moved our borders outward.
所以我们正在为这一切买单。
So, we're paying for that.
我们正在让这一切成为可能。
We're making that possible.
随着美国人在战争中丧生，以色列正利用这个机会——我们的钱、我们的武器、我们士兵的生命——来扩张其领土。
As Americans die and a number have died in this war, Israel is using that opportunity, our money, our weapons, the lives of our soldiers, to expand its territory.
所以，这并不是我们的核心利益。
So, that's not our vital interest.
你可以同意或不同意这一点。
You can agree or disagree with that.
顺便说一句，如果你一直对俄罗斯入侵乌克兰大声谴责，那你更应该对这件事发声，因为这实际上更站不住脚。
By the way, if you've been yelling about the Russian invasion of Ukraine, you should probably yell about this because it's even less defensible, really.
但以色列方面就是这么说的，而美国政府却没有人告诉他们停止。
But they're saying that, and no one in the US government has told them to stop.
那么，这对我们的意义是什么？
And so what does that mean for us?
这意味着以色列某种程度上掌控了这场战争的走向，而且从一开始就是如此。
Well, it means that Israel somehow is in control of the course of this war, and they have been since the beginning.
举个例子，我们这周得知，发动这场战争并在战争开打数小时内刺杀哈梅内伊的决定，是基于情报做出的，而这份向美国政府提供的情报来自以色列情报机构摩萨德，并非中情局。
We learned this week, for example, that the decision to go into this war and to kill the Ayatollah in the opening hours of this war was made on intelligence, on the basis of intelligence supplied to the US government by Mossad, the Israeli intel agency, not from the CIA.
中情局本来就没人愿意维护，但在这件事上，听起来它倒是主张保持克制的一方。
CIA, which no one wants to defend, but in this specific case, was sounds like was a voice for restraint.
再说一遍，我们设立情报机构的意义，就是让它们能依托最靠谱的信息，为总统接下来的行动提供建议。
And again, that's why we have intel agencies so they can advise the president about what to do next on the basis of the best available information.
至少初衷是这样的。
That's the idea anyway.
而且显然，中情局当时告诉白宫：不行，你们可以除掉什叶派穆斯林的领袖，但这未必能推翻该国政府，而且在这场刺杀发生后，西南亚地区也不大可能自发诞生一个自由民主的国家。
And apparently, CIA was telling the White House, No, you can kill the head of Shia Islam, but that probably won't topple the government, and there probably won't be in the aftermath of that killing this spontaneous creation of a liberal democracy in Southwest Asia.
这种情况基本不可能发生。
Probably not going to happen.
但摩萨德提出了另一套说法。
But Mossad had another scenario.
他们声称，或者说他们相信，除掉这个神权国家的宗教领袖——也就是这条毒蛇的头——就能引发自发的政权更迭，而且除了最初的轰炸行动之外，我们根本不需要深度介入。
They believed or said they believed that knocking off the religious leadership, the head of the snake in this theocracy would result in spontaneous regime change, and we wouldn't have to really get involved beyond just the initial bombing campaign.
这对长期以来主要从空中作战的美国人来说非常有吸引力。
And that's very appealing to Americans who fought war from the air for a long time.
而目前，这几乎是美国公众唯一能接受的方式——一种低风险、非常昂贵但耗时短的行动，只需通过轰炸消灭关键人物就能实现目标。
And that's at this point pretty much the only thing that the American public will accept, you know, a low risk, very expensive, but low risk operation that doesn't take very long where you achieve your objectives by killing the right people with bombs.
但在美国，几乎没有人真正愿意派遣美军。
But nobody in The United States, well, almost nobody, has any great desire to send U.
美
S.
军。
Troops.
事实上，今年六月，当以色列政府及其在美国的众多受雇代言人推动发动这场为期十二天的战争时。
In fact, in June, when the government of Israel and its many paid spokesmen in The United States were pushing for became the twelve day war.
我们只是要摧毁核设施。
We're just going to take out the nuclear sites.
当时有人表示：不，这根本不是这么回事。
There were people who said, No, that's not what this is.
这是一次政权更迭的行动。
This is a regime change effort.
如果继续推进，最终将导致地面部队进驻，并投入美国军队。
And if pursued, it will wind up with boots on the ground with the commitment of American troops.
一旦发生这种情况，很难想象如何撤出这些部队，而且很可能会有大量人员丧生。
And once that happens, it's kind of hard to see how to extricate them, and a lot of them could get killed.
当时任何这样说的人，都被斥为疯子、阴谋论者或骗子。
And anyone who said that at the time was denounced as crazy, a conspiracy theorist, a grifter.
是的。
Yeah.
九个月后，我们恰恰就处在了这个境地。
Nine months later, that's exactly where we are.
今天，摩萨德负责人——一位聪明且经验丰富的官员——表示，他相信，据称他曾说过，对伊朗进行政权更迭——这显然是另一个既定目标——至少需要一年时间才能推翻伊朗政权。
Today, the head of Mossad, smart, seasoned guy, said that he believes, apparently said this, that he believes regime change in Iran, which is apparently another stated goal, will require at least a year to change the regime in Iran.
这清楚地表明，以色列正在说：我们需要美国军队的投入。
So that right there is Israel saying, we're going to need the commitment of American troops.
美国人将不得不前往那里。
Americans are going to have to go there.
不出所料，美国人正在前往那里。
And surprise, surprise, Americans are going there.
到目前为止，还没有对伊朗本土或波斯湾的任何岛屿发动入侵，但显然正在为此做准备。
There's not been an invasion of Iran, of the mainland or any of the islands in the Persian Gulf just yet, but there is clearly preparation for that.
目前有数以千计的美军正前往那里。
There are many thousands of US troops headed there right now.
一些士兵已经驻扎在该地区，这看起来像是为计划对一个地形多山、出人意料地团结且武装精良的国家发动地面进攻所做的准备。
Some are already stationed in the area, And this looks like the kind of preparation that you would do if you were planning a land assault on a huge mountainous country that's surprisingly cohesive and very well armed.
据我们所知，那些常年研究军事战术和战略的人对此并没有太多热情。
And from what we can tell, there's not a lot of enthusiasm for doing this among people who spend their lives thinking through military tactics and strategy.
这似乎不是一种能迅速让我们赢得战争的举措。
This doesn't seem like the kind of move that's going to end the war in our favor quickly.
这看起来更像是一种可能导致灾难的行动。
It seems like the kind of move that could result in disaster.
我们祈祷它不会发生。
We pray it doesn't.
但一旦做出这个决定，几乎肯定会导致长期在伊朗地面作战的承诺。
But that once made will almost certainly result in a long term commitment to fighting on the ground in Iran.
正是我们之前被告诉不要担心的那件事。
The very thing we were told we were insane to worry about.
现在每个人都会说，是的，肯定需要地面部队。
Now everyone's going say, oh yeah, it's going to take some boots on the ground.
当你观察这种变化时，你会意识到，曾经完全不可想象、疯狂的事情。
And one of the things you learn as you watch this change were something that was totally unimaginable and insane.
就在九个月前，说这种事可能发生，简直是外星人级别的疯狂。
It was space aliens level crazy just nine months ago to suggest this could happen.
当你观察现在那些倡导此事的人时，你会发现，正是这些曾经认为这事永远不会发生、并说你担心它是疯了的人，如今却表现得如此漠然和理所当然，就像他们呼吁地面部队时那样。
One of the things you notice as you watch people now advocate for it, those very same people advocate for this thing that was never going to happen and you were crazy to worry about, is the kind of blase and assusions they display, the kind of, you know, boots on the ground as they call for it.
而你再也找不到比这更明显的例子了。
And there's no place where you see this more.
当然，'地面部队'的世界总部就是福克斯新闻。
The world headquarters for boots on the ground would, of course, be Fox News.
这是退役将军基思·凯洛格，再过一个月他就82岁了，他告诉你，是的，需要地面部队。
So here is Keith Kellogg, retired general Keith Kellogg, who'll be 82 years old in a month, telling you that, yeah, boots on the ground.
没什么大不了的。
Not a big deal.
看着吧。
Watch.
我非常支持派遣地面部队，不一定是进入伊朗，但要占领哈尔克岛并控制霍尔木兹海峡。
I'm a big believer in in putting boots on the ground, not necessarily into Iran, but taking Karg Island and also taking this the Strait Of Hormuz.
听好了。
Look.
我们需要像古罗马人那样行事。
We we kind of need to do it the way the Romans used to do it.
你需要派遣你的军团驻扎地面，以确保领土安全，并让他们相信我们能够做到，能够打通海峡。
You you know, you need to put, you know, your your legions on the ground to secure the territory and give them confidence that they can do it, that we can open up the straight.
看。
Look.
我知道这其中有风险。
I know there's risk involved.
总是有风险的，但那些年轻人，那些男男女女，他们明白在运输货物和打通霍尔木兹海峡时所面临的风险。
There's always risk involved, but those kids, those young men and women, they understand the risk involved on taking both cargo and opening up the straight of Hormuz.
他必须派地面部队进驻。
He's got to put boots on the ground.
有趣的是最后一句话。
Now what's interesting is the last line.
顺便说一句，有趣的是这是基思·凯洛格。
What's interesting, by the way, that it's Keith Kellogg.
基思·凯洛格正是俄乌冲突至今未能达成和解的原因之一。
Keith Kellogg is one of the reasons there has been no settlement in the conflict between Ukraine and Russia.
因此，基思·凯洛格在新政府上任后，于一月初就被任命为白宫派驻东欧的特使，试图促成俄罗斯和乌克兰之间的某种协议。
So Keith Kellogg was appointed by the new administration very, very early in January to be the emissary from the White House to Eastern Europe to try and get some kind of deal between Russia and Ukraine.
而且不说无聊的话，基思·凯洛格正是我们未能达成协议的主要原因之一，成千上万的东欧人、斯拉夫人、俄罗斯人和乌克兰人——这些很可能与挑起这场战争毫无关系的善良年轻人——已经丧生，乌克兰也彻底被毁。
And without getting boring about it, Keith Kelly Kellogg is one of the main reasons that we don't have that agreement, and hundreds and hundreds of thousands of Eastern Europeans, Slavs, Russians and Ukrainians, probably decent kids with nothing to do with starting this war, are dead, and Ukraine is totally destroyed.
而且我曾和基思·凯洛格深入交谈过，他从未真正支持过达成和解。
And Keith Kellogg was never, having talked to him at some length, ever in favor of settling that.
这或许与他女儿在泽连斯基政府工作有关，也可能无关。
And that may or may not be connected to the fact that his daughter works with the Zelensky government.
你从不想把责任归咎于某人的亲属，但她公开表示：‘我正在说服我爸，确保他坚定站在乌克兰一边。’
You never want to blame people's relatives for anything, but she's on the record saying, I'm working on my dad to make sure he stays on Ukraine's side.
但如果你是一名被委派去调解冲突的美国特使，你就不能在外国冲突中站队。
Well, you can't have a side in a foreign conflict if you're an American emissary charged with settling that conflict.
你唯一能站的立场，只能是美国的立场。
The only side you can have is The United States.
而基思·凯洛格却没有做到这一点。
And Keith Kellogg didn't.
这很可耻，但他并非这场战争的责任人，也不完全对未能达成和解负全责。
So that's shameful, and he's not responsible for that war, and he's not wholly responsible for a failure to settle it.
但他确实部分负有责任，助长了美国外交的崩溃，使美国在全球范围内不再被视为任何议题上的可信伙伴。
But he's definitely partly responsible for helping to destroy American diplomacy and making The United States globally not a trusted partner in any discussion about anything.
因为当你对其他国家不诚实，不坦率地表明自己的偏见，不履行你应尽的职责——即推动冲突解决时，人们就会逐渐看穿这一切。
Because when you're dishonest with other countries, when you don't state upfront your biases, when you don't do your job, which is to bring resolution to the conflict, people start to figure it out.
突然间，你的外交就失效了。
And all of a sudden, your diplomacy doesn't work.
那么，这为什么重要呢？
Now, why does this matter?
美国有很多人认为外交是愚蠢的。
There are lot people in The United States who think diplomacy is stupid.
我们为什么要搞外交？
Why would we have diplomacy?
你是自由派吗？
Are you liberal?
不是。
No.
因为外交是一种权力。
Because diplomacy is a kind of power.
事实上，它是关键的权力形式。
In fact, it's a key form of power.
事实上，它是大国在全球范围内行使的主要权力形式，也是以自身条件解决争端的权力。
In fact, it's the main form of power that big countries get to exercise globally, and it's the power to settle disputes on their terms.
所以，如果你一直撒谎、耍手段，甚至假装为美国工作，实际上却为第三国效力——这种情况确实发生过，那么一旦没人再信任或相信你，就没人愿意跟你打交道了。
So if all of a sudden no one trusts or believes you because you've lied too much, you've been sneaky and tricky and actually working for some third country as you pretended to work for The United States, which has happened, no one wants to deal with you.
那为什么这很糟糕？
So why is that bad?
因为你不受欢迎？
Because you're unpopular?
不是。
No.
这跟受欢迎无关，而是关于权力。
It's not about popularity, it's about power.
一旦你失去了通过谈判解决冲突的能力，你手头剩下的唯一力量就只有军备了。
Once you lose the power to settle conflicts by negotiation, the only power you have left is armaments.
所以你最好能拥有具备压倒性优势的武器系统来维护自身利益，因为到那个地步，你就只剩这张牌了。
So you better have overwhelmingly superior weapon systems in order to protect your interests because that's all you have at that point.
而且看起来，除非动用核武器，否则我们无论是在这个战区还是其他任何战区，都不具备拥有绝对压制力的武器系统。
And it looks like we may not have, short of nuclear weapons, overwhelmingly powerful weapon systems in this or any other theater.
还有很多国家同样拥有精良的武器，也就是常规武器。
Lots of other countries have sophisticated weapons too, conventional weapons.
数量惊人的美国
A shockingly large number of U.
军机
S.
在过去短短一个月里，在伊朗上空遭遇损毁或被击落。
Military aircraft apparently have been damaged or downed just in the last month over Iran.
这可不是什么好消息。
That's not good.
这根本不好。
It's not good at all.
但当你没有可信的外交手段时，你就只剩下这一招了。
But when you don't have credible diplomacy, that's all you have.
美国人会丧生，一旦发生这种情况，你的影响力会迅速衰退，那些生命就此终结。
And Americans get killed, and your power ebbs really fast when they do, and those lives are ended.
这不是一个小问题。
Not an insignificant problem.
基思·凯洛格似乎对此并不感兴趣。
Keith Kellogg doesn't seem to be that interested in it.
只要派兵进驻地面就行了。
Just put boots on the ground.
但你刚才看到的那段视频中的关键语句是结尾部分。
But the key line in the clip you just saw is the end.
他却说：不。
He's like, no.
这些人非常渴望去做这件事。
These people are really eager to do it.
有没有人向聚集在波斯湾的美国人，那些身着军装的人解释过？
Was anyone explained to them, to the people massing in the Persian Gulf, the Americans in uniform?
首先集结的是特种部队和第八十二空降师之类的部队，任何正在集结、准备应对即将到来行动的美国武装力量——假设确实会有行动的话。
Massing first special operators and eighty second airborne or whatever, any part of the gun toting US military that's massing for whatever's coming, assuming something is.
我不知道。
Don't know that.
看起来是这样。
Seems like it.
有没有人向他们解释过我们为什么这么做？
Has anyone explained to them why we're doing this?
在战术层面没有。
Not at the tactical level.
比如，你的任务是进去占领这片土地、这个岛屿，或者伊朗大陆的这一部分，但战略目标呢？我们到底为什么要这么做？
Like, your job is to go in and secure this land, this island or this part of the Iranian Mainland, but the strategic goal, like, what why are we doing this?
大概没有。
Probably not.
我们知道这一点，因为没有人向美国民众解释过。
And we know that because no one's explained this to the American population.
没人费心去说明这场行动的目的何在。
No one has bothered to explain what the point of this is.
这是一个巨大的问题，不仅因为它表明民主实际上并不奏效，而且我们以为掌权的人可能根本就没有实权。
And that's a huge problem, not only because it shows that democracy doesn't really work and that the people we thought were in charge probably aren't really in charge.
他们听命于本雅明·内塔尼亚胡，正是他把我们拖入了这场战争。
They're taking orders from Benjamin Netanyahu who got us into this war.
他们正试图从历史中抹去这一点。
They're trying to erase that from history.
维基百科上永远不会出现这个事实，但它确实是真的。
You'll never see that in Wikipedia, but it's true.
这是事实，他们自己也承认了。
That's a fact, and they admitted it.
别让他们从你手中偷走真相。
Don't let them steal the truth from you.
十年后，他们会说，你在说什么？反犹太主义？
Ten years from now, they'll like, what are you talking about, anti Semite?
不，这确实发生过。
No, that happened.
但这对我们有什么好处吗？
But is there something in it for us?
有没有人向那些冒着生命危险的士兵，以及为战争买单、为阵亡将士悲痛的全国民众解释过？
And has anybody explained to the guys risking their lives and to the rest of the country paying for it and grieving over the loss of our troops?
这到底是为了什么？
Like, what's the point?
但从来没人解释过。
And no one has.
所以到了这个时候，你不得不怀疑：这合法吗？
So at that point, you have to wonder, like, is that legitimate?
你能让人去做这件事，却不解释为什么吗？
Can you just tell people go do this without explaining why?
他们可是自愿报名的。
Well, they signed up for it.
不行。
No.
不行。
No.
你不能这样对待人。
You still don't treat people like that.
你不能这样对待国家。
You don't treat countries like this.
在这个过程中，你不得不思考，如果这场战争对我们没有任何明确的好处，我们的国家会变成什么样？
And in the course of all of this, you have to wonder what happens to our country if there's no stated benefit to us from this war.
问问你自己，如果你所代表的国家得不到任何好处，你会做这样的事吗？
Ask yourself, would would you ever do something like this if it didn't help the country you represented?
很可能不会。
It probably wouldn't.
对吧？
Right?
这说明掌权者对我们国家的看法如何？
What does that say about how the people in charge feel about our country?
嗯，你不必猜测。
Well, you don't have to guess.
看看全国各地吧。
Look around the country.
最近去过机场吗？
Been to an airport recently?
运输安全管理局正在罢工。
TSA going on strike.
当然，这背后有原因，都是民主党造成的。
Of course, there are reasons for that, the Democrats are responsible.
好吧。
Fine.
但在一个像大陆一样广阔的国家，你必须要有国内航空运输，这是必须的。
But in a country the size of a continent, you need internal air travel, period.
不仅仅是为了商业，更是为了让人们能见到自己的孩子等等，这样才能维持一个正常运转的国家。
Not simply for commerce, but so people can see their kids, etcetera, so you can have a functioning country.
可突然间，我们却没有了。
And all of a sudden we don't.
结果发现，天哪，有人把救护车开到了跑道上，一架飞机撞上了它，导致多人死亡。
Then it turns out, oh my gosh, someone sent an ambulance across a runway and a plane hit it and people were killed.
那这事是怎么发生的？
Well, how'd that happen?
因为空中交通管制严重不足。
Because there was inadequate air traffic control.
这一点其实早就为人所知了。
Well, that's been known for a while.
有人修好了吗？
Has anyone fixed it?
显然没有。
Apparently not.
然后一艘驳船撞上了巴尔的摩的关键基础设施——基桥。
Then a barge runs into the Key Bridge in Baltimore, kind of a critical piece of infrastructure.
而截至今天早上，它还远未重建完毕。
And as of this morning, it's like not even close to being rebuilt.
那已经是很久以前的事了。
That was a long time ago.
然后你开车穿越全国，会发现，哇，看起来相当破旧。
Then you drive around the country and you think, wow, looks kind of shabby.
并不是全部都这样。
Not all of it.
有些地方非常漂亮。
Very pretty places.
这片风景非常壮观，至少还没有被太阳能电站和CBD门店毁掉。
The landscape's amazing to the extent it hasn't been destroyed by solar farms and CBD outlets.
但这个国家的实际基础设施并不怎么样。
But the actual infrastructure of the country, it's not great.
我们的机场并不出色。
Our airports are not great.
当你国际旅行时，你会感到惊讶，甚至去一些像孟买或班加罗尔这样的贫穷国家，也会惊叹：为什么他们的机场这么好？
When you fly internationally, you're amazed, including to poor countries like, wow, why do they have such nice airports here in Mumbai or Bombay or whatever they're calling it now?
我以为这地方很穷。
I thought this was a poor place.
我读过关于加尔各答的报道。
I read about Calcutta.
我以为那里的人们正饿死。
Thought people were dying of starvation.
为什么他们的机场比拉瓜迪亚机场还好？
Why is their airport nicer than LaGuardia?
这到底是怎么回事？
What is this?
根源就是无人过问的疏忽。
And what it is is neglect.
这就是疏忽。
It's neglect.
当你的领导者一门心思向外扩张、经营他们的帝国，满脑子都是追逐权力的野心，反倒忘了好好打理自己治下的国家，就会造成这样的局面。
It's what happens when your leaders are so outwardly focused managing their empire and stoking their dreams of power that they forget to tend to the country they run.
事到如今，当前的局势已经再清楚不过了。
And at this point, it just absolutely couldn't be clearer what's going on.
我们的两党领导人现在满脑子都在关注境外发生的事，以至于国内的状况正变得越来越严峻——或许说严峻有点夸张，但情况绝对让人揪心。
Our leaders, bipartisan basis now, are so distracted by what's happening outside of our borders, that what's happening inside is becoming dire, maybe an overstatement, certainly depressing.
现在的失业率是多少来着？
What are the unemployment numbers?
这个话题我们能聊上整整一小时。
We could do an hour on this.
也许我们会。
Maybe we will.
这取决于你怎么解读。
It depends how you read them.
所以，如果你来自西非、索马里、旁遮普或孟加拉国，很可能有工作，收入也远高于你成长国家的水平。
So if you got here from West Africa or Somalia or Punjab or Bangladesh, probably have a job, probably make it a lot more than you made in the country you grew up in.
但如果你出生在这里，找到工作的可能性就更低。
But if you were born here, you're less likely to have a job.
这些是目前的数据。
These are the numbers right now.
本土美国人的失业率正在上升，而这还没算上能源危机和人工智能的推广。
The unemployment for native born Americans is going up, and that's before the energy shock and the rollout of AI.
真的吗？
Really?
这怎么可能发生？
How could that happen?
如果你不知道这一点，那你怎么会不知道呢？
And if you didn't know that, how did you not know that?
这并不是在与任何人争执或批评任何人。
That's not picking a fight with anyone or criticizing anybody.
这就像衡量你们国家状况的一个基本指标。
That's like a baseline measurement of how your country's doing.
那些出生在这里的人，不是你向其提供美国梦的移民，而是那些因为出生在这里而以为自己能实现美国梦的人。
The people who are born here, not the immigrants to whom you're offering the American dream, but the people who thought they would live the American dream because they were born here.
有出生即获得公民身份的人，他们正在为一切买单。
There's birthright citizens and they're paying for everything.
他们过得怎么样？
How are they doing?
不太好。
Not great.
按这个标准来看，情况并没有改善。
And by that measure, it's not improving.
那么，好吧，我们在这场战争上花了多少钱？
So, okay, how much are we spending on this war?
当然不清楚。
Unclear, of course.
战争中什么都是模糊的。
Nothing is clear in war.
你无法准确统计任何事情，包括死亡人数。
You can't get an accurate count of anything, including the dead.
但看起来每天大约花费十亿美元，可能还更多。
But it seems like about 1,000,000,000 a day, probably more.
每天十亿美元是机密信息。
It's classified a billion a day.
你明白我的意思了吧。
You see the point.
你发动战争时会付出很多代价，而你发动战争的回报却没有任何实质承诺，仅仅是为了那种理论上的安全感——比如你可能在过去十年里只想过四次伊朗，而他们根本没有核武器，他们早在六月就告诉过我们这一点。
You give up a lot when you wage a war, and when you wage a war in return for no promise of a return other than the theoretical safety you feel because Iran, which you probably thought about, like, four times in the last ten years, doesn't have nukes, which they told us in June they didn't have anyway.
你感觉好点了吗？
Do you feel better?
没有。
No.
这一切都太荒谬了。
It's the whole thing's ridiculous.
所以我认为，当我们被吸引去关注伊朗和波斯湾发生的事情时，我们其他人可能需要格外留意。
So I think the rest of us probably need to pay pretty close attention as we're tempted to be distracted by following what's happening in Iran and the Persian Gulf.
要密切关注我们国家这里发生的事，因为战争中情况变化很快。
Pay close attention to what's happening here in this country because things change fast in war.
这是最重要的一点。
That's the number one thing to know.
社会会因战争而彻底改变。
Societies are completely transformed by war.
事实上，每一个重大的社会变革，那些大的变革，都发生在战争期间。
In fact, every major societal change, the big ones, have come during war.
战争越大，变化就越大。
And the bigger the war, the bigger the change.
有些变化是好的，就像所有变化一样，而有些变化则非常糟糕。
And some changes have been good, like all change, and some changes have been, well, really bad.
但任何正在进行的变化都可能在战时被加速。
But whatever changes in progress is likely to be accelerated during wartime.
所以，如果国家在某些领域显得有些虚弱，那么这些领域可能会变得非常虚弱，然后就会发生一些没人预料到的事情。
So if the country is feeling a little weak in some area, it's likely to become very weak in that area, and then things will happen that nobody expected.
但所有这些都可能在战争期间发生。
But all of it is likely to happen during war.
所以，此刻意义重大，但也难以解读。
So, this moment is profound, but also kind of hard to read.
因此，有几件你可能不知道但正在发生的事情，你需要注意，它们将对世界和美国产生长期影响。
So, there are a couple of things you should be aware of that are happening that you might not know about, and they're going to have long term effects for the world and for The United States.
其中之一就是欧洲的毁灭。
And one of them is the destruction of Europe.
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那么，我们为什么要关心欧洲呢？
Now, why should we care about Europe?
在美国，我们大多数祖先都来自欧洲。
Well, in The United States, most of our ancestors came from Europe.
因此，我们对欧洲有着情感上的联系、文化上的联系和宗教上的联系。
And so there's that sentimental attachment, that cultural attachment, that religious attachment.
这就是我们有时所说的基督教西方。
That's the Christian West that we sometimes talk about.
基督教西方，那是什么？
Christian West, what is that?
嗯，它指的是伊斯坦布尔这一侧的区域。
Well, it's like Istanbul in this direction.
这就是基督教西方，而欧洲是它的主体部分。
That's the Christian West, and Europe is the bulk of it.
但或许更重要的是，从地缘战略角度来看，如果中国崛起并掌控了东方，那我们在西方又剩下什么？
But maybe as important, certainly geostrategically as important, if China rises and takes the East, what do we have here in the West?
那我们就还有欧洲和美洲，这就是我们的世界版图。
Well, we have Europe and we have The Americas, and that's our world.
这些是我们能够施加影响力的区域。
That's what we influence.
这些才是我们真正的盟友，因为它们和我们地缘相近。
Those are our actual allies because they live close to us.
哪怕你再怎么喜欢菲律宾，三十年后美国还能对菲律宾保有多大的影响力呢？
Much as you might like The Philippines, in thirty years, will The United States have a lot of influence in The Philippines?
基本不可能。
Probably not.
南海的所有区域都将归中国所有。
Anything in the South China Sea is gonna belong to China.
你是否接受这个情况完全无关紧要。
Whether you want that or not is totally irrelevant.
因此欧洲的局势走向，对我们美国而言真的至关重要。
So what happens to Europe really, really matters to us here in The United States.
尽管我们有很多荒唐的领导人，但我们在价值观层面上基本是一致的。
And despite having a lot of silly leaders, we basically are aligned on the level of values.
我的意思是，他们自由派、烦人，还爱吃奶酪，诸如此类。
I mean, they're like liberal and annoying and eat cheese and all that stuff.
但如果你环顾世界，想弄清楚谁才是我真正的盟友、基础盟友，那肯定是欧洲人。
But ultimately, if you're looking around the world and trying to figure out who are my real allies, who are my baseline allies, would be the Europeans.
如果你稍微关注一下这件事，就会注意到，这场战争的主要受害者，除了六个海湾国家之外，就是欧洲，因为他们的能源正被伊朗，可能还有以色列——尽管有很多谎言掩盖——摧毁。
One of the things you notice if you pay any attention to this at all is that the main victim of this war after the six Gulf states is Europe because it's their energy that's being destroyed both by Iran and probably also by Israel despite a lot of lying about it.
这是他们的能源。
It's their energy.
顺便说一句，如果你稍微留意一下，就会发现就在前几天，乌克兰人——如果真有什么能代表美国深层政府的代理人，那就是乌克兰政府——袭击了一处俄罗斯能源设施。
And by the way, if you're paying any attention at all, you may have noticed it just the other day, the Ukrainians, really a proxy for if there was ever a proxy for the American deep state, it's the Ukrainian government, just went and hit a Russian energy installation.
真的吗？
Really?
那谁才是这一行动的受害者？
So who's the victim of that?
欧洲。
Europe.
那么，为什么欧洲会是受害者呢？
Now, why would Europe be the victim?
关于这一点，写得太少，甚至几乎没人注意到，但以色列政府领导人每当谈及欧洲时所表现出的敌意是非常明显的。
Too little has been written and very little even is noticed about this, but the hostility that Israeli government leaders feel toward Europe whenever they speak about it is very, very obvious.
这是以色列前领导人纳夫塔利·贝内特不久前，我想是昨天，谈论欧洲时的讲话。
Here's the former leader of Israel, Naftali Bennett, talking just the other day, maybe I think yesterday, about Europe.
看这个。
Watch this.
如果我们没有采取行动，整个欧洲都将面临可怕的核弹道导弹威胁。
Had we not acted, all of Europe would be under a a terrible nuclear ballistic missile menace.
所以我们正在打一场战争，我们不希望被在安南批评，但我们期待你们的支持。
So we're fighting year war, and we expect not to be, you know, criticized in Anan, but we expect your back end.
这才是得体的做法。
That would be the decent thing to do.
我认为，任何欧洲领导人如果都说这不是我们的问题，
I think any European leader who sort of says, this isn't our problem.
那么什么时候才会成为你们的问题？
So when will it become your problem?
当他们拥有了核武器时？
When they have a nuclear weapon?
当导弹飞向马德里时？
When the missile is on its way to Madrid?
当它击中马德里或巴塞罗那时？
When it hits Madrid or Barcelona?
到那时你们才会醒悟吗？
Is that when you're gonna wake up?
所以我们正在承担战斗的任务。
So we're doing the fighting.
我们并没有向你们寻求任何帮助。
We didn't ask you for any help.
什么都没有。
Nothing.
我们所做的只是对抗这种可怕的极端伊斯兰主义威胁。
All we're doing is fighting against this horrible radical Islamist menace.
我们正在减少并希望彻底消除这一威胁。
We're reducing and hopefully eliminating this threat.
而你们不仅不感谢我们，反而还在批评我们。
And instead of thanking us, you're criticizing us.
我们才是受害者。
We're the victims.
欧洲，你们为什么还不足够感谢我们？
Why haven't you thanked us enough, Europe?
我们推动了美国，而美国在你们所有国家都有基地。
We pushed The United States, which has bases in all your countries.
作为美国的北约盟友，我们推动美国发动了一场战争，完全牺牲了你们的利益，只为终结一个根本不是对你们构成威胁的威胁。
A fellow NATO member of The United States, we pushed The United States into a war that shafts you completely to end a threat that was not actually a threat to you.
而这样做，我们限制了你们的能源供应，导致欧洲将陷入萧条。
And in so doing, we constricted your energy supply to the extent that you're going to have a depression in Europe.
顺便说一句，如果这还不够，我们还要给你们带来一场移民危机。
And by the way, in case that's not enough, we're going to give you a migrant crisis.
我们会给你们带来一场移民危机，因为伊朗离密尔沃基很远，但离巴黎没那么远。
We're going give you a migrant crisis because Iran is pretty far from Milwaukee, but not that far from Paris.
过去三十年每一场由以色列推动的战争，其后续影响都是将绝望的移民送往欧洲。
And the aftermath of every Israeli inspired war over the past thirty years has been to send desperate migrants into Europe.
所以，如果你是那种在网络上消费愚蠢内容的人，就会问：这到底是怎么发生的？
So if you're one of those people who consumes dumb stuff for the Internet, it's like, how did this happen?
伦敦正在变得穆斯林化。
London's becoming Muslim.
这是因为英国人憎恨自己，当然，他们自虐般地想要引进那些不认同他们价值观的人。
Well, it happens because the Brits hate themselves, of course, and masochistically want to import people who don't show their values.
但这也发生是因为我们在中东发动的战争带来了连锁后果。
But it also happens because we have wars in The Middle East that have downstream consequences.
这场战争中，该地区最大的国家目睹其基础设施被摧毁，将引发大规模移民。
And this war, the biggest country in the region, watching its infrastructure get destroyed, will inspire mass migration.
最终，许多人会流向欧洲。
And ultimately, lot of those people are winding up in Europe.
但纳夫塔利·贝内特对欧洲说：你们还没感谢我们为此所做的。
But Naftali Bennett is saying to Europe, You haven't thanked us for that.
因此，这里发生的是永无止境的斗争，真正的斗争，即关于道德制高点的斗争。
So what you have here is the never ending battle, the real battle, which is over the moral high ground.
这才是真正的斗争。
That's the real battle.
谁占据了道德制高点？
Who occupies the moral high ground?
制高点是真实存在的。
And high ground is a real thing.
如果你占据制高点，你就能居高临下地瞄准他人。
If you're in the high ground, you aim down at people.
你拥有清晰的射界。
You've got a clear field of fire.
你掌握主动权。
You're in charge.
如果你掌控了道德话语的主导权，当对话一开始就变成‘你伤害了我’时。
And if you control the moral terms, if the conversation begins with, Hey, you've wronged me.
我是受害者。
I'm the victim.
在这种情况下，你根本赢不了这场辩论。
There's really no way to win that fight.
纳夫塔利·贝内特刚才就是在这么做，而本雅明·内塔尼亚胡每一句话都是如此。
And that's what Naftali Bennett was just doing, and that's what Benjamin Netanyahu does in every sentence.
嘿，没人像以色列这样遭受过苦难。
Hey, no one suffered like Israel has suffered.
所以，闭嘴，照我们说的做，别抱怨。
Therefore, shut up and do what we want and don't complain about it.
事实上，我们应该为此感谢你们。
In fact, thank us for it.
所以你们应该知道，欧洲正因为此事陷入严重困境，而这对美国人来说很重要。
So you should know that Europe is in very serious trouble because of this, and that matters to Americans.
但我们不得不应对的担忧——愿上帝保佑，不会在这里发生——在美国并不仅限于我们真正盟友的缓慢衰亡。
But the concerns that we're going to have to deal with, we pray not, here in The United States are not limited to the slow death of our true allies.
它们还包括在这里发生的袭击，当你在外国杀害宗教领袖时，往往容易激发极端主义，这类恐怖行为是可以预见的。
They would include attacks here, both acts of terror that are pretty predictable when you kill religious leaders in foreign countries, it does tend to inspire extremism.
这并不是为它开脱的理由。
It's not an excuse for it.
这令人震惊。
It's horrifying.
但这就是为什么你不想做任何鼓励宗教极端主义的事情，尤其是当你假装自己不喜欢它的时候。
But that's why you don't want to do anything to encourage religious extremism, particularly if you pretend you don't like it.
也许不要去杀害阿亚图拉，这样你就会少遇到这类情况，这很明显。
Maybe don't kill Ayatollahs and you'll get less of it, obviously.
但事情还不止如此。
But that's not just it.
美国从未公开实施过针对其他国家元首的政策，因为国家不会这么做。
The United States has never engaged in a policy openly of targeting other heads of state because countries don't do that.
为什么他们不会这么做？
Why don't they do that?
因为这不是他们想树立的先例。
Because it's not a precedent they want to set.
这是各国在战争中不愿轻易设立的若干先例之一。
It's one of several precedents that countries hesitate before setting in warfare.
不要暗杀国家元首，因为我们不希望自己的国家元首被暗杀。
Don't assassinate the head of state because we don't want our head of state to be assassinated.
当然，也不要公开针对民用基础设施。
Don't openly target civilian infrastructure, of course.
如果可能的话，不要要求对方无条件彻底投降，因为这对任何国家来说都太过苛刻，一旦你这样说话，往往会激化对方拼死抵抗的决心。
And if you can help it, don't call for absolute total abject surrender because that's a lot to ask of any nation, and it tends to inspire people to fight to the bitter end when you start talking like that.
当你这样说话时，你就把自己暴露出来了。
And when you start talking like that, you are opening yourself up.
或许最重要的是，不要公开说我们推翻一个政府是为了控制它并掠夺其资源。
And maybe most of all, don't say out loud that we're replacing a government in order to control it and steal its resources.
那么，你为什么不会这么做呢？
Now, why wouldn't you do that?
有两个原因。
Two reasons.
一个是抽象的道德原因，因为这是错误的。
One is a kind of abstract moral reason because it's wrong.
这就是为什么盗窃在世界上每个国家都是非法的。
That's why theft is illegal in every country in the world.
你不能只是说：我想要那个。
You can't just say, I want that.
我要开枪打死你。
I'm going to shoot you.
我们有法律禁止这种行为，这些法律源于这样一个认知：你不能仅仅因为想要就强行拿走别人的东西。
We have laws against that, and those laws are rooted in the understanding that you're not allowed to just take something because you want it by force.
我们认为这是不道德的。
We think that's immoral.
这构成了我们的法律体系、我们的宗教，以及大多数宗教的基础。
That's the basis of our legal system and of our religion and of most religions, by the way.
所以，这是其中一个原因。
So there's that.
但另一个原因是，你也不希望这种事情发生在自己身上。
But the other reason is because you don't want it done to you.
现在或许是时候提醒一下我们自己：美国拥有大量的资源。
And it might be a good time just to remind ourselves that The United States has a lot of resources.
事实上，根据某些标准，它是世界上资源最丰富的国家。
In fact, by some measures, it's the most resource dense nation in the world.
而且，以尼日利亚的标准来看，它的人口密度相对较低。
And it's also by, say, Nigerian standards, lightly populated.
三亿五千万人散布在一片广袤的大陆上，这是地球上最美丽的大陆，资源极其丰富。
Three fifty million people spread out across a continent, the prettiest continent on the planet with abundant everything.
我们现在并不大量开采这些资源，因为我们觉得太富有了，没必要去采矿，但资源依然在那里。
Now, we don't extract a lot of it because we decided we're just too rich to mine things, but it's still here.
我们还拥有世界上最大的淡水储备，仅次于俄罗斯，或者至少非常接近。
We also have the largest freshwater reserves of any country in the world, maybe after Russia, but certainly close.
大量的淡水、世界最肥沃的农田、丰富的石油和天然气。
Massive amounts of fresh water, most fertile farmland in the world, abundant oil and gas.
所以我们也有丰富的资源。
So we have resources too.
因此，如果我们因为自己是这个单极体系的受益者、掌控着世界，就制定一条新规则：只要你拥有大量资源，而我们想要，就可以推翻你的政府、杀死你的领导人，把资源据为己有——这就是我们要确立的标准吗？
And so if you set up a precedent because we make the rules because we have been the beneficiary of this unipolar system, we're in charge of the world, and the new rule is if you've got a lot of resources and we want them and we could just overthrow your government and kill the people who run it and take them for ourselves, is that the standard?
看来是的。
Apparently.
那么总有一天，我们自己也可能不得不承受这样的标准，你只能祈祷这种情况永远不会发生。
Then at some point, it's at least conceivable that we would have to suffer that standard, and you just pray that that never happens.
但值得超越下周三的视角，承认这种情况确实可能发生。
But it's worth thinking past like next Wednesday and acknowledging that it could.
而且我们一直在摧毁其他国家的民用基础设施，自从我们炸毁北溪管道以来，因为我们不喜欢普京，因为他很坏，就是很坏。
And if we're blowing up other people's civilian infrastructure, which we have done for a while now since we blew up Nord Stream because we don't like Putin because he's bad, he's just bad.
但那条管道是通往欧洲——我们所谓的盟友——的生命线，而我们却把它炸了，这同时证明了我们并不关心全球变暖，毕竟那是历史上最大规模的人为二氧化碳排放事件，也表明我们正在无视自己的规则。
But that was the vital energy artery into Europe, our supposed allies, and we just blew it up, proving simultaneously that we didn't care about global warming, of course, because that was the largest man made emission of CO2 in history, but that we're disregarding our own rules.
好吧。
Okay.
所以我们必须遵守这个新标准。
So we have to live by the new standard.
这番话的深层含义是，这种行为可能会带来后果。
It's a very long way of saying there could be consequences to this.
你不需要是个热爱联合国或什么的自由派，或者亲法派，也能明白这一点。
Consequences, you don't have to be some sort of liberal who loves the UN or or whatever, is pro French.
停。
Stop.
如果你关心美国，你就应该感到担忧。
If you care about The United States, you should be worried.
德克萨斯州墨西哥湾沿岸的波特亚瑟有一家瓦莱罗炼油厂，那里有许多炼油厂，我们许多精炼石油产品都来自那里。
So there was a Valero refinery in Port Arthur, Texas, on the Gulf Coast Of Texas, where a lot of refineries, where a lot of our refined petroleum products come from.
这些产品包括航空燃油、汽油、柴油，一直到沥青。
Those include jet fuel, gasoline, diesel, all the way down to asphalt.
两天前，那里发生了一次巨大的爆炸，当时发布了就地避难令，场面十分紧张，但现在他们说这仅仅是一起工业事故。
And there was a massive explosion two days ago on a cloud, and they had a stay in place order, and it was high drama, and now they're saying it was just a industrial accident.
幸运的是，没有人死亡。
No one was killed, thank God.
但事故确实发生了，也许它真的只是一场意外。
But it happened, and maybe it was an accident.
意外确实会发生，仅仅因为过去五年里美国大量食品加工、能源和弹药工厂接连爆炸，并不意味着它们都不是意外。
Accidents do happen, and just because a whole bunch of food processing and energy and ammunition plants in The United States seem to be blowing up over the past five years doesn't mean they're not all accidents.
它们完全可能是意外。
They absolutely could be.
没有相反的信息。
Have no information to the contrary.
但如果我们正在摧毁其他国家的民用基础设施，并与一个习惯性摧毁他国基础设施的国家合作——比如昨天以色列无缘无故炸毁了黎巴嫩大量桥梁——而我们认为这没问题，那么到了某个时候，我们不得不思考我们这个庞大且 largely 未受保护的国家的基础设施安全。
But if we're blowing up other people's civilian infrastructure and partnering with a country that blows up other people's infrastructure, as a matter of course, just took out a ton of bridges in Lebanon yesterday for some reason, Israel, and we think that's fine, then at some point you have to wonder about our infrastructure in this giant, largely unprotected country.
会不会有反噬，伤害到我们？
Could there be blowback that hurts us?
这并不是自由派的立场。
That's not a liberal position.
这纯粹是常识性的立场。
That's like a common sense position.
如果你试图保护自己的国家，就必须牢记这一点。
If you're trying to protect your own country, you have to keep that in mind.
但根本没人在意这一点。
But no one is keeping it in mind at all.
因此，美国确实面临潜在的物理威胁，无需反复赘述。
So there is a potential physical threat to The United States without going on and on and on and on and on about it.
你应该知道这是存在的，这也是这场战争的负面影响之一。
You should know that it exists, and it's one of the downsides of this war.
另一个人们没有详细考虑的负面影响，刚才提到了，就是以色列在这场战争中的战略目标所带来的长期影响，而正如所指出的，这一目标与我们的目标完全不同，那就是领土扩张。
The other downside that people are not considering in any great detail, mentioned a minute ago, but are the long term effects of Israel's strategic goal in this war, which as noted differs from ours completely, which is territorial expansion.
以色列究竟想要什么？
What exactly does Israel want?
我们不知道，但他们显然希望扩大其边界，或至少扩大1967年之后以色列周围的缓冲区，无论他们的实际目标是什么；而我们其他人却只关注是否要入侵加沙地带——顺便说一句，可能不会，谁知道呢？以色列人正利用我们的军事力量和税收资金，专注于自己的议程。
We don't know, but they clearly want to extend their borders or at least the buffer zone around post 67 Israel, whatever their actual goals are, while the rest of us are focused on whether we're going to invade Carg Island, probably not, by the way, who knows, the Israelis are tending to their own agenda using the cover of our military and our tax dollars.
明白吗？
Okay?
这只是一个事实。
Just a fact.
所以他们正在做的其中一件事，就是试图占领黎巴嫩南部。
So one of the things they're doing is trying to grab Southern Lebanon.
那么，这为什么重要？
Now, why does that matter?
黎巴嫩是什么地方？
What's Lebanon?
谁会在乎呢？
Who cares?
嗯，我不太清楚。
Well, I don't know.
如果你是基督徒，你就会在乎了，因为黎巴嫩的基督徒人口是该地区最多的，远远超过其他国家。
If you're a Christian, you care because Lebanon has the largest population of Christians in the region by far.
实际上，几百年来它一直是一个基督教国家。
In fact, it was a Christian country for centuries.
黎巴嫩有一位基督教总统。
There's a Christian president of Lebanon.
你知道这件事吗？
Did you know that?
每次提到黎巴嫩，人们都是从以色列的利益这个角度去讨论的。
Every time Lebanon is mentioned, it's through the lens of, like, Israel's interest.
但如果你是基督徒，你知道，你不必憎恨以色列，但你可能有不同的利益。
But if you're a Christian, you know, you don't have to hate Israel, but you may have different interests.
那基督徒呢？
Like, what about the Christians?
黎巴嫩的总统是基督徒。
Well, Lebanon is a Christian president.
黎巴嫩军队的最高指挥官是基督徒，还有许多古老的基督教村庄，这些村庄耶稣可能曾经走过，两千年来一直信仰基督教。
The head of the military in Lebanon is Christian, and there are a lot of Christian villages, ancient Christian villages, villages Jesus probably walked through, have been Christian ever since, only two thousand years.
而他们正被摧毁，因为在这场由我们资助并主导的战争掩护下，以色列决定占领黎巴嫩的大片领土。
And they're being destroyed because under the cover of this war paid for and led by us, Israel has decided to take a big chunk of Lebanon.
看。
Watch.
以色列国防部长周二表示，该国军队将控制黎巴嫩南部直至利塔尼河。
Israel's defense minister on Tuesday said the country's military will control Southern Lebanon up to the Litani River.
这是以色列首次明确表明其意图占领占黎巴嫩近十分之一的广大领土。
The remarks are the first time Israel has clearly spelled out its intent to seize swathes of territory that make up nearly a tenth of Lebanon.
以色列一直在与伊朗支持的真主党武装分子在黎巴嫩交火。
Israel has been trading fire with Iranian backed Hezbollah fighters in Lebanon.
这是在真主党对以色列和美国联合袭击伊朗进行报复后发生的。
That's after Hezbollah struck Israel following joint Israeli American attacks on Iran.
周二，火箭弹袭击了以色列北部的建筑物和车辆。
Rockets damaged buildings and vehicles in Northern Israel on Tuesday.
卡茨此前曾威胁黎巴嫩政府，如果其不解除真主党的武装，将失去领土。
Katz has previously threatened Lebanon's government that it would lose territory if it did not disarm Hezbollah.
以色列已经摧毁了五座跨越利塔尼河的桥梁，并加速拆除靠近以色列边境的黎巴嫩村庄的房屋。
Israel has destroyed five bridges crossing the Litami River and has accelerated the demolition of homes in Lebanese villages close to the Israeli border.
卡茨说：‘原则很明确。’
Katz said, quote, the principle is clear.
如果有恐怖袭击和火箭弹，就不会有房屋和居民，以色列国防军将长期驻留。
If there is terror and rockets, there will be no homes and residents, and the IDF will remain inside.
你知道这件事正在发生吗？
Did you know that was happening?
那这有什么关系呢？
And why does it matter?
这很重要，因为这一段历史终将结束。
Well, it matters because this episode in history is going to end at a certain point.
这场战争终会结束。
This war will end.
但愿它早点结束，但无论如何，所有战争最终都会结束。
Pray it's sooner rather than later, but at some point, all wars do end.
到了那时，真相就会浮出水面，因为一切真相终将大白。
And at that point, the truth comes out because the truth about everything will come out.
一切。
Everything.
只是它会在时间轴上的哪个节点出现而已。
Just a matter of where on the timeline it does.
但终有一刻，我们会知道在这段时期以及过去两年半里究竟发生了什么。
But at some point, we will know what actually happened in this period and over the last two and a half years.
所以，如果你浏览互联网，看到加沙、约旦河西岸或如今黎巴嫩地区战争罪行的照片，你无法确定它们都是真实的。
So if you look at the Internet and you see pictures of war crimes committed in Gaza or the West Bank or now in Lebanon, you can't be certain they're all real.
当然，网络上的水军会说这些全是假的，但其实它们并不都是假的。
And of course, the shills on the Internet will say they're all fake, but they're not all fake, actually.
有些是真的。
Some of them are real.
数以万计的平民、妇女和儿童，被以色列军队用我们的武器——由美国国会拨款购买的美国武器——杀害。
Tens of thousands of people, noncombatants, women and children, have been killed by the Israeli military using our weapons, American weapons paid for by the US Congress.
对此，终将会有清算。
And there will be a reckoning over that.
而且已有真实迹象——并非反犹太主义的宣传，而是切实的证据——表明战争罪行已经发生。
And there are indications, real indications, not anti Semitic propaganda, but actual indications that war crimes have been committed.
虐待他人、杀害手无寸铁的非战斗人员、故意杀害儿童。
Torturing people, killing people, unarmed, non combatants, kids on purpose.
这类事情很多。
There's a lot of that.
其中一些可能是假的，一些是宣传，这毫无疑问，但有些并不是假的。
And some of it's probably fake, some of it is propaganda, undoubtedly, but some of it isn't.
最终，我们会知道真相，因为最终我们总是会知道。
And in the end, we're going to know because we always know in the end.
所以你得问问自己，那些为这一切辩护并为之买单的人，当我们发现真相时，你愿意成为其中一员吗？
And so you have to ask yourself, the people who are defending this and paying for it, would you want to be one of those people when we find this out?
那宗教领袖呢？美国福音派领袖？不是普通信徒，因为如果他们知道了，一定会感到震惊，而是那些领导美国最大福音派组织的人，比如利伯蒂大学的人，或者富兰克林·格雷厄姆，这些人都是家喻户晓的名字。
How about the religious leaders, the American evangelical leaders, not rank and file evangelicals who, if they knew, would be horrified, but the people who run the biggest evangelical associations in The United States, the people who in Liberty University, for example, or Franklin Graham, these are household names.
他们对中东一个拥有基督教总统的国家里教堂和古老基督教村庄的毁灭说过什么吗？
Have they said anything about the destruction of churches and ancient Christian villages in a country in The Middle East with a Christian president?
他们甚至知道黎巴嫩有一位基督教总统吗？
Do they even know Lebanon had a Christian president?
谁知道呢？
Who knows?
他们连提都没提过一句。
They even said word one about it.
为什么呢？
Why?
嗯，这是个好问题。
Well, that's a good question.
二战结束后，很多人都问过德国的帝国教会这个问题。
That was the question a lot of people asked the Reich Church after the Second World War ended in Germany.
你们当初怎么会附和那样的事？
How could you have gone along with that?
除了‘我不知道’之外，没人能给出一个说得通的解释。
And there was not a good answer other than, I don't know.
他们不过是不想得罪有权有势的人罢了。
Didn't want to offend the powerful.
这件事一定会带来恶果，其中有一个后果非常容易预见。
There is going to be a consequence to this, and one of them is very easy to predict.
顺带一提，那些大型福音派机构其实也做过不少好事。
Big evangelical institutions, which have done good things, by the way.
如果你支持家庭、支持生命，你感激他们所做的一切，感激会众中那些有个人操守的人，有很多非常正直的人。
If you're for the family and you're pro life, you're grateful for what they've done, for their personal decency of the people in the pews, a lot of really decent people.
但美国福音派基督教的领袖们——并非所有人，但有一些人——当这一切结束时，将完全丧失正当性。
But the leaders of American evangelical Christianity, not all, but some will have no legitimacy at all when this is over.
当一个你宣誓效忠的国家在中东屠杀基督徒、屠杀你的基督弟兄时，你在哪里？
Where were you when a country that you pledged fealty to was murdering Christians, your brothers in Christ in The Middle East?
当人们挨饿，当加沙的孩子们挨饿，而加沙援助项目却由某个伪装成基督徒的传道人主导时，你在哪里？
Where were you when people were starving, when kids were starving in Gaza and the Gaza aid program was run by some kind of crypto Christian preacher?
总得有人为这些事负责。
Like, someone's going have to answer for that.
这些人必须为这些事负责。
These people will have to answer for that.
如果你此刻在想，西方是否正在发生一场宗教觉醒，那这个问题根本不用怀疑。
And if you're wondering in this moment where there's a religious awakening underway in the West, there's really no question about that.
如果你在疑惑，为什么没有太多新人加入福音派机构，这可能就是原因。
If you're wondering why not a lot of new converts are going to the evangelical institutions, This may be why.
会有巨大的变化，因为请记住，真相总会大白，总是如此。
There's gonna be big change because remember, once again, the truth always comes out, always.
这将影响美国政治，可能超过过去二十年我们所见过的任何事情。
And this will affect American politics, maybe more than anything we've seen over the past twenty years.
它将永远改变共和党，这一点毫无疑问。
It'll change the Republican Party forever, that's for sure.
你看到的大多数关于共和党对这场战争态度的民调，都是针对福克斯新闻观众和MAGA支持者的民调。
Most of the polling you see about the attitudes of the Republican Party toward this war, polling Fox News viewers, polling MAGA people.
你怎么看待MAGA？
How do you find MAGA?
那些同意政府任何做法的人。
Well, people who agree with anything the administration does.
当然，他们默认同意这一点。
Well, by definition, they agree with this.
但50岁的人也会投票。
But people 50 also vote.
事实上，因为他们确实参加了上一次选举，唐纳德·特朗普目前担任总统，而且优势很明显。
In fact, because they did vote in the last election, Donald Trump is currently president, and it's not close there.
试着找一个支持这一点的人。
Try to find one who supports this.
祝你好运。
Good luck.
除非他在利伯蒂大学工作，否则很可能不支持。
Unless he works at Liberty University, probably not for it.
这将带来巨大的影响。
So that will have massive consequences.
巨大的影响。
Massive.
民主党会吸纳所有这些人吗？
Is the Democratic Party going to absorb all those people?
谁知道呢？
Who knows?
但这件事将带来重大的政治变革。
But there will be big political change because of this.
原因其实很简单，因为那些支持这一立场、对我们撒谎、 selectively 忽视他人苦难——包括他们的基督徒同胞——的人，已经丧失了道德权威，短期内不可能恢复。
And the reason is really simple, because the people who endorse this and lie to us about it and selectively ignore the suffering of other human beings, including their fellow Christians, have lost their moral authority, and they will not regain it anytime soon.
你只希望这场风波能尽快结束，以免整个国家也失去道德权威，因为归根结底，这才是最具说服力的权威。
And you just hope that this ends soon enough that the nation itself doesn't lose its moral authority because that is, in the end, the most compelling kind of authority.
你的真正力量正来源于此。
That's where your actual power comes from.
它来自你的正直，这种力量远胜于核武器。
It's from your decency, which is far more powerful than nuclear weapons.
最终，它比任何事物都更强大。
In the end, it's more powerful than anything.
这正是为什么，远超可口可乐、万宝路、牛仔裤、资本主义和民主议程，美国帝国的道德品质——尽管常有不道德之举——但与其他帝国相比，正是美国对世界的负责任治理，才赋予了它真正的力量。
And it is one of the main reasons more than Coca Cola and Marlboros and blue jeans and capitalism and the democracy agenda, the decency of the American empire, often indecent, but compared to what other empire, it was the decency of America's stewardship of the world that made it powerful.
而现在，说‘这从来就不好，看看摩萨台，一直都很糟糕’，却成了一种时髦。
And now it's very fashionable to say, oh, it was always bad and throw up Mosaddek and it was always bad.
但在那段时期的大部分时间里，世界其他地区对美国的看法并非如此，比如冷战的大部分阶段就是这样。
But the rest of world didn't didn't feel that way about The United States for most of that time, most of the Cold War, for example.
但现在世界上很多国家都持这种负面看法了，这对美国来说是一种损失。
But a lot of the world now does feel that way, and that's a loss for The United States.
这根本不是在意外国人怎么想的问题——虽说有好多人特别在乎以色列的看法，却完全不在乎其他国家的想法。
It's not a matter of caring what foreigners think, though an awful lot of people care what Israel thinks, but they don't care what anyone else thinks.
但这会让我们丧失自身的实力与话语权。
But it's a loss of power and authority for us.
这是一场巨大的损失。
It's a huge loss.
它会让我们变得更孱弱，也更身处险境。
It makes us weaker and more endangered.
还有最后一件要记住的事，也是当下这个节点需要深思的事——你可能会只顾着紧盯福克斯新闻，揪着我们会不会入侵哈尔克岛的消息喘不过气，因而留意不到这件事：你真正该关注的，是美国公信力的变化，以及美国国内的权力阶层自认可以攫取的权力规模，因为战争期间这种权力总会不断扩张。
And the final thing to remember, made the thing to meditate on about this moment, and you may not catch this because you're breathlessly watching Fox News to find out if we're going to invade the Isle Of Kharg, The thing that you should be paying attention to is the change in American authority and the level of power our authorities domestically here in The US feel like they can assume because that always expands during war.
战时的领导人都会走向专制，无一例外，全都会这样，而且行政分支以外的权力阶层也会变得专制独裁。
Wartime leaders become authoritarian, every single one of them, every single one of them, and authorities below the executive also become authoritarian.
你知道吗？1942年，富兰克林·罗斯福签署了一项著名的行政命令，将大约12万名日裔美国人——主要集中在西部的俄勒冈州、华盛顿州和加利福尼亚州——关进集中营，但这个决定中最有趣的事实却常常被忽略？
Did you know that in 1942, when Franklin Roosevelt issued his famous executive order to intern about 120,000 Japanese Americans, mostly in the West, Oregon, Washington, California, in concentration camps, Did you know the most interesting fact of that decision is often omitted from it?
其中绝大多数是美国公民，或是合法居民，但三分之二是拥有完全公民权的美国人，他们既未被定罪，甚至未被指控任何罪行，却被关押了三年，并失去了所有财产。
The overwhelming majority of them were American citizens, actual citizens or legal residents, but two thirds were American citizens with full citizenship who'd been convicted of no crime, hadn't even been charged with a crime, but they were thrown into concentration camps for three years and lost their property.
到了八十年代，有人曾试图说：‘哦，我们真的很抱歉。’
And there was some effort in the eighties to be like, oh, we're so sorry.
但又有谁真的在乎呢？
And also, who really cares?
大日本帝国很恶劣。
Imperial Japan was bad.
但这些人实际上并不是大日本帝国的臣民。
But these people weren't actually subjects of Imperial Japan.
他们是美国公民，和家人一起被关进集中营，却没人站出来说话？
They were American citizens, And they were thrown into concentration camps with their families, and no one really said anything?
我的意思是，这很复杂。
I mean, it's complicated.
这很复杂。
It's complicated.
其实并不复杂。
That's not complicated, actually.
这完全错了。
That's totally wrong.
如果你是美国政府，永远不能这样对待美国公民。
You can't treat American citizens that way if you're the US government ever.
然而，罗斯福之所以能这么做，是因为1942年战争形势并不乐观。
And yet Roosevelt was able to do it because it was 1942 and the war wasn't looking good.
还有一件事要记住，当战争变得愈发艰难时，比如你派出了地面部队，却陷入某个地方无法脱身。
And that's the other thing to remember, that as wars get tougher, say if you commit ground troops and find yourself stuck in a place and can't get out.
这种情况发生过很多次。
It's happened many, many times.
随着局势恶化，领导人越来越不受欢迎，人们变得更加愤怒、沮丧、悲伤和分心，政府会获得和平时期难以想象的权力，甚至比新冠疫情期间还要极端。
As things get tougher and leaders become less popular and people become more enraged and discouraged and sad and distracted, governments can assume powers unimaginable in peacetime, even more dramatically than they did during the COVID epidemic.
这种情况可能发生。
That can happen.
而且可能已经开始发生了。
And it may be starting to happen.
就我本人而言，过去一个月里我收到的联邦调查局调查威胁，比整个拜登政府任期内还多，这或许是一个信号。
Speaking for myself, I've been threatened with more FBI investigations in the last month than during the entire Biden administration, so maybe that's an indicator of something.
比整个拜登政府任期内还多两次，而我在他任期内每天都批评他。
Two more than during the entire Biden administration, which I criticized every single day for its duration.
所以，就是这样。
So there's that.
但这里有一个具体的例子，一段录像能告诉你该警惕什么。
But here's one pretty specific example, a piece of tape that should tell you what to be on guard against.
这发生在地方层面，而不是联邦执法层面，比如你们当地的治安官，擅自行使连上帝都不拥有的权力，更不用说美国任何人了。
And that's at the local level, not at the level of federal law enforcement, but like your local sheriff, assuming powers that no man short of God possesses, and certainly no one in The United States possesses.
公然违背我们的建国文件和《权利法案》，这位来自密歇根州的治安官布夏尔决定，要逮捕并监禁那些制作嘲讽他的表情包的人。
In flat obvious contradiction to our founding documents, to the Bill of Rights, this sheriff, Sheriff Bouchard from Michigan, has decided that he's going to arrest and imprison people who make memes mocking him.
这是上周五的实况。
This is Real from last Friday.
看这个。
Watch this.
我举这个例子作为说明。
I give you this by way of example.
有个卑劣之徒觉得自己有底气，敢上传这张我的照片来威胁和恐吓我，当然他没成功，因为我早就做好了准备。
Some pawn scum felt empowered and emboldened enough to put this picture of me up to try to threaten and intimidate me which of course he didn't do because I signed up for this.
顺便说一句，干这事的人说了好多可怕的话。
And by the way the person that did this said a bunch of terrible things.
不只是针对我，还针对许多群体和个人——顺便说，今天他在威斯康星州被逮捕了。
Not just against me, but against a lot of groups and individuals who, by the way, was arrested today in Wisconsin.
但我的重点是这一点。
My point is this, though.
如果这个人觉得有足够底气或足够安全敢对我这么做，那他对一个孩子会做什么？
If this person is emboldened and empowered enough or feel safe enough to to do this for me, what does he do to a kid?
他对走在街上的犹太家庭会做什么？
What does he do to a Jewish family walking down the street?
嗯，他什么也没做。
Well, he didn't do anything.
他只是做了一个丑陋的梗图，但 sheriff 并没有被吓倒。
He made an ugly meme, But the sheriff's not intimidated.
我报名参加了这个工作。
I signed up for this.
当我成为你们的 sheriff 时，我就知道这份工作的风险。
I knew the risks of the job when I became your sheriff.
这人就像密歇根州一位前共和党政客。
This guy's like some former Republican Republican politician in the state of Michigan.
我知道风险。
I knew the risk.
我报名参加了这个工作。
I signed up for this.
有人给你制作了一个搞笑的梗图或者丑化你的梗图。
Someone made a funny meme about you or an ugly meme about you.
这只是一个梗图。
It's a meme.
这是互联网上的一张图片，出现在Instagram上，而不是在战场上。
It's an image on the Internet that was on Instagram, not on the battlefield.
你并没有面临任何身体上的风险。
You faced no physical risk.
你自己刚刚承认了这一点。
You just admitted that.
你还在另一个州把那个人逮捕了，现在他还在监狱里？
And you had the guy arrested in another state, and he's in jail?
这怎么会不引发大规模抗议呢？
How is this not is this not leading to mass protests?
为什么他们没有关闭你们的警长办公室？
Why did they not shut your sheriff's department down?
司法部在哪里？
Where's the Department of Justice?
民权司在哪里？
Where's the civil rights division?
你们可以随便逮捕取笑你的人吗？
Are you allowed to just arrest people who make fun of you?
哦，这太丑陋了。
Oh, it's so ugly.
这是反犹太主义。
It's antisemitism.
好吧。
Okay.
这是种族主义。
Well, it's racism.
你在嘲笑疫苗。
You're mocking the vaccine.
这都是一回事。
It's all the same.
这些都是借口，我们之所以当真，是因为我们愚蠢，而且没人愿意被贴上反犹太主义或种族主义的标签，或是否认科学。
These are all pretexts that we take literally because we're dumb and no one wants to be an anti Semite or a racist or deny science.
无论他们告诉你犯了什么罪，真正的罪行始终都是一样的。
Whatever they tell you your crime is, the actual crime is always the same.
那就是嘲笑和阻碍当权者的威权冲动。
It's mocking and impeding the authoritarian impulses of the people in charge.
这是在嘲笑警长，而这正是这个罪犯所做的事情。
It's making fun of the sheriff, which is exactly what this criminal did.
但今晚警长没事。
But the sheriff's okay tonight.
他会好起来的。
He's going to be alright.
他自愿参与了这一切。
He signed up for this.
我们其他人并没有同意这件事。
The rest of us did not sign up for this.
这违反了美利坚合众国宪法第一修正案。
This is illegal under the First Amendment to the United States Constitution.
这也完全与在这个国家生活的原则相悖。
It's also totally incompatible with what it is to live in this country.
你可以表达你的想法。
You get to say what you think.
法律上不存在‘仇恨言论’这一类别。
There is no legal category of hate speech.
只有当权者讨厌的言论。
There's only speech the people in charge hate.
所以这个人应该在那段内容上网后一分钟内就成为联邦调查的对象。
So this guy should be the subject of a federal investigation, like in about one minute after that hits the Internet.
别以为他已经被调查了。
Don't think he has been.
但愿他会受到调查。
Let's hope he will be.
但这种变化恰恰可能在你们国家战争期间浮现，就像某个古怪的共和党治安官。
But that's exactly the kind of change that can bubble up in your country during war, and it's like some kooky sheriff Republican.
那个是共和党人？
That's the Republican?
那个是言论自由党的人？
That's the free speech party guy?
真的吗？
Really?
而且这发生在密歇根州，谁知道呢？
And it's in Michigan, and who even knows?
密歇根州的一个县。
Some county in Michigan.
突然之间，你就因为一个迷因被逮捕了，理由是仇恨言论——而这其实就是当权者讨厌的言论。
And all of a sudden you wake up and you get arrested for a meme because it's hate speech, which means it's speech the people in charge hate.
如果这种情况持续足够长的时间，或者美国真的遭受重创，情况就会变得更加极端。
And then if this goes on long enough, or if The United States are to really suffer, it gets more extreme.
已经有新保守主义者表示，如果在美国发生由他们推动的战争所引发的恐怖袭击，他们会确保将反对战争的人以恐怖袭击的罪名逮捕。
There are already neocons saying if there's a terror attack in The United States as blowback from the war that they pushed for, that they will make certain that people who oppose the war are arrested for the terror attack.
顺着这个逻辑链条想一想。
Follow the logic chain.
哦，你没法想，因为根本不存在什么逻辑链条。
Oh, you can't because there isn't one.
他们公然宣称：我们会利用美国人的死亡，通过你们的政府执法机构来解决我们的政治恩怨。
They're openly saying, We will use the deaths of Americans to settle our political scores using your government law enforcement.
这和我们用你们的军队在另一个大陆解决古老的部落争端没什么不同。
Not so different from, We will settle our ancient tribal disputes on another continent using your military.
本质上是同一个原则。
Kind of the same principle.
但在这里，这是不可接受的。
But it's not acceptable here.
如果伊朗战争已经很糟糕，那么允许美国政府逮捕、迫害、调查、监视美国公民行使他们与生俱来的权利，情况更糟。
If the Iran war was bad, allowing the US government to arrest, persecute, investigate, spy on US citizens for exercising their God given rights is worse.
当他们开始谈论征兵时，你就知道情况不对了。
And you'll know it's bad when they start talking about a draft.
那么，什么是征兵呢？
Now, what is a draft?
当然，这是暴政的定义。
Well, of course, it's the definition of tyranny.
政府竟然有权剥夺人民的成果——那些年轻力壮的公民，本应建设文明、延续国家的人，却被迫冒着生命危险，甚至牺牲生命，去为一个他们没有参与决定、而且完全不支持的决策卖命。
It is somehow the right of a government to take the fruit of its population, its young fit citizens, the ones who are supposed to build the civilization, continue the country, take them and force them to risk their lives, in some cases die for a decision they didn't make, and in this case, they don't support at all.
18岁的美国男性中有多少人支持对伊朗的战争？
What percentage of 18 year old American men support the war in Iran?
我没看过相关民调。
Haven't seen the polling.
我猜支持率远低于30%，甚至可能更低。
Imagine it's quite a bit below 30%, maybe even lower than that.
等到真的实行征兵时，支持率恐怕会更低。
By the time we get to a draft, you can be assured it'll be even lower than that.
如果强迫人们为一场与本国安全无关的战争赴死，而本国根本不存在外来入侵的紧迫威胁——除了由移民造成的长期隐患，而非外国军队的即时入侵——那这就是暴政。
So that would be tyranny if there's another definition of tyranny, forcing people to die for a war for another country when your country is not even conceivably in peril of invasion, except the long term kind created by immigration, but an imminent invasion of foreign troops.
但我们卷入这场战争是因为本雅明·内塔尼亚胡希望我们这么做，而且这场战争并不顺利。
But, you know, we went into this war because Benjamin Netanyahu wanted us to, and it's not going well.
你必须冒着生命危险去打这场仗，即使你痛恨它，也从未真正理解它为何而战，因为所有人都对你撒了谎。
And you need to fight that war at the risk of your life, even though you hate it and have never really understood what it's because everyone lied to you about it.
如果你不这么做，我们就会逮捕你，把你关进监狱。
And if you don't do that, we'll arrest you and put you in jail.
我认为这就是暴政的定义。
I think that's the definition of tyranny.
仅仅因为过去发生过，并不意味着它就不那么暴虐。
And simply because it's happened in the past doesn't make it any less tyrannical.
但别光听我说。
But don't take my word for it.
那么现在，我想为大家带来一段不久前我们对一位名叫吉姆·韦伯，也就是第三代詹姆斯·韦伯的采访。
So I want to bring you now an interview that we did a short time ago with a man called Jim Webb, James Webb the third.
如果这个名字听起来很熟悉，那是因为他出自美国最负盛名的军人世家之一。
And if the name sounds familiar, that's because he is from one of the most famous military families in The United States.
他的父亲曾担任美国海军部长，还当过联邦参议员。
His father was Navy secretary, a US senator.
而我们接下来要听到的吉姆·韦伯，本人也曾是一名美国海军陆战队士兵，他是家里连续第三代入伍的成员；正如他会在采访中提到的，他的家族自法国印第安人战争以来，参与了美国的每一场冲突。
And Jim Webb, the man we're about to speak to, was himself enlisted United States Marine, third in a row in his family, a family that, as he'll tell you, has fought in every American conflict since the French and Indian Wars.
我们还想着要逼他好好说清楚，如果福克斯新闻心心念念想要投入的那些所谓的地面作战部队真的出动的话，局势会变成什么样。
And we thought we would push him a little bit on what it would look like if those fabled boots on the ground that Fox News so badly wants to commit actually came to pass.
那到底会是什么情况？
What would that look like?
还有我们为什么要这么做？
And why are we doing this?
以及这事要怎么推进？
And how would it work?
更重要的是，最终结果会是什么？
And most critically, what would the end result be?
我们认为这是一次非常有趣的对话，希望你们能继续观看。
And we thought it was a pretty interesting conversation, so we hope you will stay for it.
在这档节目中，我们非常支持养狗。
We are strongly pro dog on this show.
我们毫不掩饰地认为，狗是人生中伟大的福祉之一。
We make no secret that dogs are one of the great blessings of this life.
为了保持它们的健康，我们推荐使用Dutch。
And to keep them healthy, we recommend Dutch.
它是应对飙升的兽医费用的解决方案。
It's the solution to skyrocketing veterinary costs.
为什么这些费用如此之高？
Why are those costs so high?
嗯，私人股权，如果你还不知道的话。
Well, private equity, in case you didn't already know that.
大型投资者收购了全国范围内的宠物诊所，并将收费翻了一番。
Big investors have bought up veterinary clinics across the country and doubled the amount they charge.
他们利用你对动物的爱来赚钱。
So they're exploiting your love for animals to make money.
他们提供了更好的服务吗？
And are they providing better services?
如果你付不起兽医费用，那就根本得不到任何服务。
Well, if you can't afford to go to the vet, get no services at all.
我们为此做了一整期节目，情况真的令人痛心。
We did a whole show on this, and it's really distressing.
Dutch 就是解决这个问题的办法。
Dutch is the solution to this.
持证兽医，便捷的远程预约，使用代码 Tucker plans，年费仅需 82 美元。
Licensed veterinarians, easy remote appointments start with the code Tucker plans at just $82 per year.
与你走进一家私募股权拥有的宠物诊所相比，这简直微不足道。
That's like nothing compared to what you will get if you walk into a private equity owned vet.
50%的Dutch客户表示，因为他们负担不起费用，三年都没看过兽医。
50% of Dutch customers say they had not seen a vet in three years because they couldn't afford it.
Dutch解决了这个问题。
Dutch fixes that.
十分钟通话，无需等候室，无诊所加价，产品免费配送，可覆盖最多五只宠物。
Ten minute calls, no waiting room, no clinic markup, free shipping on products, coverage for up to five pets.
访问dutch.com/tucker。
Visit dutch.com/tucker.
使用代码Tucker可享受50美元优惠。
Use the code Tucker for $50 off.
真的，Dutch是实实在在的。
Truly, Dutch is real.
它真的有效。
It works.
我们对此做了大量研究。
We did a lot of research into this.
在推荐之前自己先使用过。
Used it before recommending it.
Dutch.com/tucker。
Dutch.com/tucker.
他在这儿。
Here he is.
吉姆·韦伯。
Jim Webb.
吉姆·韦伯，非常感谢您参与这次对话。
Jim Webb, thank you for doing this very much.
我之所以想和您交谈，除了您博学且诚实之外，还有一个重要原因：您曾参与上一次大规模的美国军事行动——伊拉克战争，您成长于这个环境中，对此有着独特的见解。
One of the many reasons I wanted to talk to you in addition to the fact that you're knowledgeable and honest is that you're a veteran of the last big American military effort, the Iraq war, and you grew up steeped in this world and have some perspective on it.
首先来谈谈地面部队出动的可能性。
So first to the question of likelihood of ground troops.
嗯。
Mhmm.
我们不知道。
We don't know.
当然，我们都在努力弄清楚接下来会发生什么，但你的看法是什么？
Of course, we're of trying to figure out what's going to happen, but what's your view?
你认为美国会派遣实质性的地面部队吗？
Do you think The United States will commit meaningful ground forces?
我先说，我希望不会。
I'll start by saying I hope not.
是的。
Yes.
根据目前所有的迹象，海军陆战队正在附近集结，甚至不是谣言，而是有报道称第82空降师的指挥单位已经前出部署。
Judging by all of the indicators that are out there, the marines floating in, there's, I guess not even rumors, there's reports that elements of the eighty second have already been deployed forward, their command element.
我想珍妮弗·格里芬今天证实了这一点。
I think Jennifer Griffin confirmed that today.
情况看起来确实如此，而且越来越有可能了。
It's looking like it is, and it's looking more and more likely.
我必须说，真正让我担忧的是，从地面作战的角度来看，我们正以一种零敲碎打的方式卷入这场冲突。
And I gotta say, I mean, what really concerns me is sort of the piecemeal fashion that we're going into this from a from a ground fighter perspective.
是的。
Yes.
更大的问题是，我们对介入伊朗事务根本没有任何真正的讨论。
And then the bigger picture is that there has been no real debate about our involvement in Iran at all.
在国会层面，从未向美国公众充分阐明过我们的立场，而我们却一头扎进了一个尚未根据宪法有效澄清、也缺乏美国民众共识支持其符合国家安全需要的环境。
At the congressional level, there was never really a case made to the American public, and we are charging into an environment that has not effectively been cleared according to our constitution, nor is there a consensus among the American people that this is necessary for our national security.
与此同时，通过政府官员如马可·卢比奥的表态，我们很清楚，之所以这么做，是因为以色列决定我们应该这么做。
While at the same time, it's very, very clear through the statements of the administration, such as Marco Rubio, that we are doing this because Israel decided that we should do it.
因此，从这个角度看，这并不符合我们的国家利益。
Therefore, by virtue of that, it's not in our national interest.
我们正在用自己的财富和鲜血，为别人的战争而战。
We are committing our treasure and our blood to fight somebody else's war.
如果在发生之前能就此展开一场辩论，那将非常好。
And it would be really great if we could have a debate about that before that happens.
但说实话，你看看，可能已经太晚了。
But, I mean, you look at it, it it may be too late.
我认为，之所以没有真正的辩论，也没有任何有意义的抗议活动，原因之一是人们难以相信这会成为现实。
It's I think one of the reasons that there hasn't been, you know, a real debate, there hasn't been any meaningful demonstration anywhere against this, is that people are having trouble believing it could be true.
嗯。
Mhmm.
我们竟然要派地面部队去和伊朗打仗。
That we'd be committing ground troops to a war with Iran.
你能再详细解释一下，为什么你觉得这可能已经在进行中了吗？
Can you just explain a little more fully why you think that might be in progress?
当然。
Sure.
从一开始，复杂的地方就在于，作为美国公民，我们根本没有得到关于这次行动的任何具体目标。
Well, the complicated thing about that right out of the gate is that, I mean, as an American citizen, we have not been given any type of tangible objectives for this entire operation.
这究竟是政权更迭吗？
Is this, you know, is this a regime change?
这是为了削弱他们的军事能力吗？
Is this to reduce their military capacity?
这是为了重新开放霍尔木兹海峡吗？这实际上是目前最紧迫的任务。
Is this to reopen the Straits Of Hormuz, which is actually probably the the most biggest imperative right now.
因此，如果没有一个明确的最终目标，哪怕只是在作战层面，要为这一行动找到正当理由就非常非常困难。
So without an end state objective, at least even at the operational level, it's it's very, very difficult to find a justification for it.
我的意思是，你所说的显然是对的。
I mean, that's what you're saying is clearly true.
我什么都没听到。
I haven't heard anything.
我一直在密切关注。
I pay close attention.
但对于那些坐在家里，正准备奔赴战场的人们来说，这意味着什么？
But what does that mean for the guys who are sitting at home thinking I'm about to head over?
你说过，有正规军部队的指挥人员正前往那里。
You said there were elements of the command of regular army units headed over.
他们知道为什么要这么做吗？
Do they know why they're doing this?
归根结底，如果我们不知道长期计划，甚至中期计划，我怀疑他们自己也不清楚。
Ultimately, you know, ultimately, if we don't know the long term plan or even the the interim plan, the medium term plan, I doubt they know.
他们面前有一个任务。
They have an operation in front of them.
对。
Right.
他们肯定已经接受了相关简报。
Which they are they've more than likely been briefed on for sure.
他们会去执行。
They're going to execute.
他们可能知道这一点。
You know, they may know that.
但这和整体目标有什么关联？
But what's the tie in?
这如何促进国家的利益呢？
How does this, you know, how does this further the interest of the country?
这如何推动我们在全球乃至本地区的战略目标？
How does this further our strategic objectives around the world, or even in the region?
我特别关注派遣地面部队重新打通霍尔木兹海峡的可能性，这表明我们在这场斗争中并未掌握主动权。
And I look at the prospects of ground troops, in particular, to reopen the Strait Of Hormuz as an indicator that we do not have the initiative in this fight.
海峡被封锁，油价上涨，根据各方说法——你可以咨询任何一位经济学家——如果这种情况持续更久，整个全球经济都可能被拖垮，而我们已经感受到了它的影响。
The straits are closed, gas prices are going up, and we are looking at a scenario by all accounts, you can talk to any number of economists about this, where if this goes on for much longer, the entire global economy could potentially be brought down, but it's already we're already feeling the ramifications of it.
因此，表面上看，我们似乎正在派遣人员以夺回主动权，重新打通海峡。
So, in effect, what it appears that we're doing is we are committing people to regain the initiative to open the straits.
这可以说是一次大胆甚至过激的举动，旨在让伊朗陷入被动。
You know, it's a it would be a quote unquote bold or over the top stroke in order to put the Iranians on their back foot.
作为一名前海军陆战队员，我从小在海军陆战队文化中长大，我的亲属或祖先参与了自法印战争以来的每一场美国战争。
Myself, as a former Marine, grew up in the Marine Corps, I have had a relative or ancestor fight in every single American conflict going back to the French and Indian War.
你知道，这有点
You know, it's it's kind of
法印战争？
The French and Indian War?
对。
Correct.
那件事没在CNN播过。
That was not on CNN.
没错，没在CNN播过。
No, it was not on CNN.
可能在OAN播过，但我表示怀疑。
It did it may have been on OAN, but I doubt it.
哦，这太惊人了。
Oh, that's that's amazing.
谢谢你的认可。
Oh, appreciate it.
而且我们家除了我祖父——他是一名职业空军军官——之外，从来没有人真正当过职业军人、海军陆战队员或空军人员，但那些挺身而出、参战的人，是因为这是我们的天性，你可以读一读我父亲的书，就知道了。
And as and we've never been really career soldiers or Marines or Airmen, with the exception of my grandfather, who was a career Air Force officer, or people who step up and who fight because it's, I mean, you can read one of my dad's books, you know, it's in our nature.
是的。
Yes.
但与此同时，这是一种对国家的荣誉感和责任感。
But at the same time, it's a sense of honor and duty to the country.
当国家召唤时，你知道，在我们家，你会挺身而出，尽自己的一份力。
When the country calls, you know, you step up and you do your part in my family.
是的。
Yes.
然后，不知为何，你会回到平民社会，过自己的生活。
And then for whatever reason, you go back to civilian society and you live your life.
职业军人这一方面，从来就没有真正吸引过我。
The career aspect has never really, you know, appealed.
你不是为了免费医疗才参军的。
You're not in it for the free healthcare.
完全不是。
Not at all.
完全不是。
Not at all.
没关系。
It's okay.
没事，你知道的，去别处找私人医疗吧。
It's fine, you know, find private healthcare somewhere else.
是的。
Yeah.
但当你身处其中时，对吧？
But when you're inside of that, right?
当你有这种心态时，你知道，你会去战斗，因为，你知道，我可以拿我在伊拉克战争中的经历来说。
When that's your mindset, you know, you're going to go fight because, you know, I I can use my own experience with the Iraq war.
我们出兵时，我并不赞同。
I didn't agree with it when we went in.
由于我的成长背景，我对内部运作和缺乏战略目标有独特的看法，但很明显，有些事情正在发生。
I had a unique perspective due to the way that I grew up about the inner workings and the lack of a strategic objective, but it was clear that something was going on.
我们的国家需要年轻人去参战，于是我自愿报名。
Our country needed young men to go fight, and I volunteered to go.
我退学去参军了。
Dropped out of college to go do it.
但是
But
所以你是入伍的。
So you enlisted.
没错。
Correct.
你不是通过后备军官训练团（ROTC）入伍的？
You were not ROTC?
我确实参加过ROTC，然后在2004年和我父亲一起去了阿富汗。
I was in ROTC, and then I went to Afghanistan with my dad in 2004.
在那里有机会做了一些摄影报道。
Had a chance to do some photojournalism there.
我非常喜欢，所以回家后决定报名成为海军陆战队步兵。
Liked it so much that I came home and decided to sign up and be a Marine Corps Infantryman.
她本可以成为海军陆战队军官，但你选择成为海军陆战队步兵。
She could have been a Marine Corps officer, but you decided to be a Marine Corps Infantryman
而是。
instead.
对。
Correct.
我还没遇到过多少人，会放弃成为海军陆战队军官的机会，而选择入伍当兵。
It's I've not met a lot of people who turned down the chance to be a Marine Corps officer in order to enlist in the Marine Corps.
你挺有热情的，
Well You're pretty enthusiastic,
上面写着。
it says.
我确实是。
I was.
我当时就是这样。
I was.
那对我来说似乎是自然而然的选择。
It was it just seemed like the natural place for me to be.
我和同龄的战友们一起在赫尔曼德省以及巴基斯坦边境一带行动。
I was amongst my peers, guys the same age, walking around Helmand province and up on the Pakistani border.
你从宾夕法尼亚州立大学毕业后过了多久？
How long between you went to Penn State?
没错。
Correct.
所以有一天你还在宾夕法尼亚州立大学，手里拿着塑料啤酒杯，然后过了多久你就拿着步枪身处异国他乡了？
So one day you're at Penn State, you know, holding a plastic beer cup, and then how long between that and finding yourself with a rifle in a foreign country?
大约十八个月。
About eighteen months.
是的。
Yep.
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