塔克·卡尔森回应以色列对伊朗的战争

但如果你想要分化这六个国家，其实并不难，而以色列人确实为此付出了巨大的努力。

But if you were trying to divide six countries from each other, it's not that hard, and the Israelis have worked really, really hard to do that.

但事实上，如果你想真正控制中东，你就必须削弱，甚至摧毁海湾国家。

But the truth is if you really want control of the Middle East, you kinda have to degrade, if not destroy the Gulf States.

因此，以色列人知道，美国人也知道——虽然可能没有那么现实的评估，但他们多少有些概念。

And so the Israelis knew, and the Americans knew as well, maybe not quite quite as realistic an assessment, but they had some sense.

以色列人绝对清楚，如果你开始向伊朗发射导弹，开始刺杀伊朗的领导人，甚至杀死伊斯兰教某一支派的国家元首兼宗教领袖——阿亚图拉，这必将引发军事反击，严重打击海湾地区；在像巴林这样的国家——第五舰队的驻地——你甚至可能激起一场真正的革命，因为这个国家几乎有一半人口是什叶派。

The Israelis definitely knew that if you start lobbying missiles into Iran and if you start killing the leadership of Iran and if you were to say kill the head of state slash religious leader of one branch of Islam, the Ayatollah, if you were to do that, it would provoke a military response that would hurt The Gulf badly and that it would in some countries like Bahrain, site of the fifth fleet, you could potentially stoke, like, a true revolution because that country is almost, I think, half Shiite.

因此，如果你这么做，就能在海湾地区制造巨大的混乱。

So you could cause massive chaos in The Gulf if you were to do this.

但从以色列的角度来看，这并不是什么风险。

Now that wasn't a risk from the Israeli standpoint.

这正是目的所在。

That was the point.

这正是目的所在。

That was the point.

他们想削弱海湾地区，而两天内就做到了。

They wanted to diminish the Gulf, and in two days, they have.

我认为，任何崇尚体面、秩序和整洁的人都希望海湾地区能恢复过来。

And I think anyone who likes decency and order and cleanliness is hoping that The Gulf will recover.

海湾地区对我们构不成威胁。

The Gulf is not a threat to us.

我们在这些国家设有军事基地。

We have military bases in these countries.

这些国家是我们最亲密的盟友之一。

These are some of our closest allies.

它们比以色列远更亲近我们。

All of them are closer allies than Israel by far.

它们是我们的朋友，但已经遭受了严重打击。

They're our friends, but they've been really hurt.

在迪拜这样的地方，它本质上是一个国家的一部分，是阿联酋的一个酋长国，但同时也是一个奢侈品牌。

And in a place like Dubai, which is basically part of a country, it's an emirate within The United Arab Emirates, but it's also a it's a luxury brand, basically.

人们去迪拜，是因为那里美丽、富裕、干净，最重要的是安全有序。

People go to Dubai because it's beautiful and rich and clean and above all because it's safe and orderly.

它拥有世界上 busiest 的机场。

It's got the busiest airport in the world.

当你在 Instagram 上看到迪拜机场上空冒烟的视频时，你会想：今年我还是去卡波吧。

You start seeing video on Instagram of smoke in the Dubai Airport, and you're like, I think I'm going to Cabo this year.

哦，抱歉。

Oh, sorry.

毒品贩子。

Drug cartels.

随便吧。

Whatever.

也许你今年去塞多纳吧。

Maybe you go to Sedona this year.

这真的严重伤害了这些国家，而以色列正是想伤害这些国家。

It really, really hurts these countries, and Israel wanted to hurt these countries.

这正是重点。

That's the point.

就是要让这些国家受创。

Wanted to hurt these countries.

想要制造混乱和无序，因为它们是以色列的对手。

Wanted to sow chaos and disorder because they are rivals of Israel.

所以这可能还没被报道，但事实是，昨晚在卡塔尔和沙特阿拉伯，当局逮捕了计划在这些国家实施爆炸的摩萨德特工。

So it's probably not hasn't been reported, but it's a fact that last night in Qatar and Saudi Arabia, authorities arrested Mossad agents planning on committing bombings in those countries.

这真奇怪。

Now that's weird.

这毫无道理。

It doesn't make any sense.

为什么以色列人要在两个同样遭受伊朗攻击的海湾国家实施爆炸？

Why would the Israelis be committing bombings in two Gulf countries which are also being attacked by Iran?

他们不是同一阵营的吗？

Aren't they on the same side?

不。

No.

不。

No.

以色列想伤害伊朗、卡塔尔、阿联酋、沙特、巴林、阿曼和科威特，而且他们已经成功了。

Israel wants to hurt Iran and Qatar and UAE and Saudi and Bahrain and Oman and Kuwait, and they've succeeded.

如果你真的想控制该地区——正如我们所确定的，以色列想要控制，而且这也不该因其想要而受到指责，因为这是很自然的诉求。

And the third thing you would have to do if you wanted true control over the region, which as we've established, Israel wants and shouldn't be attacked for wanting, it's a natural thing to want.

但你最终必须做的，是让美国退出中东。

But the final thing you'd have to do is get The US out of the Middle East.

自1948年以来，从哈里·杜鲁门到现任总统，美国历届总统都试图限制或引导以色列的政策，尤其是其外交政策，尽管成效逐渐减弱。

Since 1948, The United States, from Harry Truman till present, US presidents, and as noted with diminishing success, but have tried to constrain or shape Israel's policies, its foreign policy.

我们有权利这么做，因为自1945年以来，我们一直是世界上最强大的国家，而且我们也承担了相关开支。

And we have a right to do that because we're the most powerful country in the world and have been since 1945 and also because we we pay for it.

你知道，如果没有我们，以色列现在根本无法存在，而我们为他们提供了安全保护伞。

You know, Israel couldn't exist without us right now, and we give them the defense umbrella.

我们为他们在战争中提供保护。

We defend them in their wars.

那么你为什么希望美国离开呢？

And so why would you want The United States out?

这是因为，尽管美国在约束以色列方面做得并不好，但长期以来一直在向以色列提出各种要求，这非常令人厌烦。

Well, because The United States, while not doing a very good job of constraining Israel, has been issuing requests in any case to Israel for a long time, and that's very annoying.

想象一下，如果我们从渥太华也收到同样的沟通，比如他们说：你们不能这么做。

Imagine if we were getting the same kind of communication from, I don't know, Ottawa, and they were like, you can't do this.

你们不能那样做。

You can't do that.

到了某个时候，我们就会让他们别管闲事。

We'd say buzz off at a certain point.

别插手了，加拿大。

Back off Canada.

我们要做我们想做的事。

We're doing what we want.

我们是一个大国。

We're a great power.

所以你必须把美国赶出去。

So you have to get The United States out.

这场战争的设计就是为了实现这一点，因为以色列人非常了解美国国内政治，知道美国公众完全不愿意承受伤亡，这场战争从未获得接近多数的支持。

And this war is designed to do it because the Israelis who are very well aware of domestic American politics know that there is no appetite whatsoever for casualties among the American public, that this war did not have anything approaching majority support.

事实上，它只获得了少数支持，而且在短短三十六小时内支持率进一步下降，这将导致美国的政治危机，并且最关键的是，会让我们的地区阿拉伯盟友——也就是海湾国家和约旦——相信美国是个糟糕的盟友。

In fact, it had small minority support, and that's shrunk even in thirty six hours, and that this would cause a political crisis in The United States, and that it would most critically convince our Arab allies in the region, meaning really the Gulf States and Jordan.

可怜的约旦。

Poor Jordan.

一个出色的国家。

Wonderful country.

这会让他们相信美国是个糟糕的盟友。

It would convince them that The United States is a bad ally.

为什么？

Why?

因为一旦你攻击伊朗，波斯人根本一点都不傻，你知道他们肯定会袭击这些国家的美国基地，他们确实这么做了，除了阿曼。

Because the second you hit Iran, and the Persians are not stupid at all, you know that they're gonna hit American bases in those countries, which they have, except Oman.

但在其他六个地方，他们确实这么做了，而你知道这些国家不会得到美国的保护，而且也一直没得到很好的保护。

But in the other six, they have, And you know those countries are not gonna be defended by The United States, and they haven't been very well.

有些国家现在正陷入火海，他们感到完全脆弱，而且根本不会泄露任何你在网上找不到的作战机密。

Some of these countries are on fire right now, and they feel completely vulnerable, And they are low and not letting loose with any operational secret that you can't find on the Internet.

他们的导弹防御系统正在告急。

They're running low on missile defense.

所以像沙特、阿联酋、卡塔尔、巴林或科威特这样的国家，全都紧邻波斯湾，正对着伊朗。

And so a country like Saudi or UAE or Qatar, Bahrain or Kuwait, I mean, they're all right on The Gulf directly across from Iran.

他们依赖能源生产，而这些生产正遭到破坏，却没人保护他们。

They live on their energy production, and that's being damaged, and no one's protecting them.

昨晚，沙特阿美的一处设施被炸毁了。

A Saudi Aramco facility went up last night.

沙特阿美是长期以来美沙联合的能源生产企业，也是全球最大的石油公司，今天部分设施仍在燃烧。

Saudi Aramco being the, you know, longtime joint US Saudi energy production company, biggest oil company in the world, and part of it's on fire today.

伊朗人说他们没干。

The Iranians said they didn't do it.

他们为什么要说不是他们干的？

Why would they say they didn't do it?

难道是以色列干的？

What possible Israel did it?

他们为什么不干呢？

Why wouldn't they?

因为如果你仔细想想，吓唬我们地区其他盟友，让他们知道他们可能遭到袭击而美国不会保护他们，你们几十年来忍受这一切，是因为美国军队驻扎在你们的土地上，而你们的民众并不喜欢这样，但你们还是忍了，因为你们一直被告诉：如果出了问题，美国会来救你们。

Because if you think about it, scaring our other allies in the region, letting them know that they can get attacked and The US will not defend you, you put up with all this crap for decades because you got American troops on your soil and your population doesn't like it, you do it anyway because you've been told if there was ever a problem, The US will come rescue you.

那么，我们刚刚学到了什么？

Well, guess what we just learned?

美国不会来救你们了。

The US is not coming to rescue you.

有数十万美国平民被困在中东，无法撤离。

There are hundreds of thousands of Americans, civilians caught in the Middle East and it can't get out.

这些国家的政府感到恐慌且愤怒，传递给他们的信息是：美国不是一个可靠的伙伴。

And the governments of those countries are panicked and they're enraged, and the message to them is The US is not a reliable partner.

这种伙伴关系的意义何在？

What's the point of this partnership?

如果导弹如雨般落下，或者无人机袭击我们的机场或国际机场时，允许你们在我的国家设立空军基地有什么意义？

What's the point of allowing you to have an airbase in my country if when missiles come raining down or drones attack our airport or international airport?

你们根本不会采取任何行动。

You're not gonna do anything about it.

他们就是这么想的，你能理解他们为什么会有这种感受。

That's how they feel, and you can understand why they do.

那么，传递给他们的信息是什么？

So what's the message to them?

与美国打交道没有任何好处。

There's no upside in dealing with The United States.

在美国进行外国投资也没有任何好处。

There's no upside in foreign investment in The United States.

你去这些国家中的任何一个。

You go to any of these countries.

你直接去机场。

You just go to the airport.

去一家餐厅。

Go to a restaurant.

你会去找谁？

Who do you run to?

美国商人。

American businessmen.

他们中的一些人有好点子。

Some of them have good ideas.

他们中的一些人想法愚蠢到连硅谷都卖不出去。

Some of them have ideas that are so stupid that they couldn't sell them in Silicon Valley.

他们根本无法去找美国的风投筹到钱。

They couldn't go to VCs in The United States and raise the money.

所以他们去了海湾地区。

So they go to The Gulf.

这并不是因为海湾阿拉伯人愚蠢。

And it's not that the Gulf Arabs are dumb.

在某种意义上，他们这样做是因为他们把美国视为自己唯一的真正盟友。

In some sense, they're doing this because they see The United States as their only real ally.

因此，他们大量投资于美国的商业项目。

And so they're investing in American business ventures, a lot.

数百亿美元。

Hundreds of billions of dollars.

其中一部分是经济上的考量。

And part of that is economic calculation.

他们认为这些公司会成长，并且会赚钱。

They think these companies are gonna grow and they're gonna make money.

另一部分则是出于友谊。

Part of it is friendship.

你们一直是盟友，自从英国人离开以来一直都是。

You're an ally and have been all these years since the British left.

他们现在怎么想？

What do they think now?

哇。

Wow.

他们不再那么这么认为了。

They don't feel that way quite as much.

因为对他们来说，这非常严重。

Because for them, this is very serious.

我的意思是，这些国家并不自己生产粮食。

I mean, countries don't grow their own food.

所以如果你关闭了机场，波斯湾和红海实际上也被封锁了，你们的粮食从哪里来？

So if you close the airport and the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea are closed in effect, where do you get your food?

这确实是个大问题。

That's a real issue.

这些国家的供水部分依赖于海水淡化厂，通过膜过滤海水，再将淡水输送到城市中心。

These are countries that are supplied by, in some cases, desalination plants, pulling seawater through a membrane and then piping it to the urban centers.

如果这些管道被炸毁了会怎样？

What happens if those pipes get blown up?

你就没有水了。

You have no water.

那里有数以千万计的人口。

There's millions and millions of people.

所以你可以看到，无需深入细节，这些国家——我们在该地区最强大的盟友——如今感到多么脆弱，以及他们对美国和该地区的看法发生了怎样的巨大变化。

So you can see without getting too into it just how vulnerable these countries, our strongest allies in the region, now feel and how their calculation about The United States and the region has changed dramatically.

英国在1956年的苏伊士危机中失去了在中东的影响力。

The British lost their influence in The Middle East in 1956 in what is known as the Suez Crisis.

这场危机极其复杂，即使在七十年后的今天，也很难完全理解。

It was a crisis that was so complex, it's hard even to understand it now seventy years later.

但最终结果是，英国无法在该地区恢复秩序。

But the net effect was The UK was not able to restore order in the region.

他们的实力比人们想象的要弱，就是这样。

They had less power than people thought they did, and that was it.

这标志着英国帝国的真正终结，也无疑是其对中东控制的结束。

That was the true end of Britain's empire and certainly the end of its control over the Middle East.

这就是真相，而且是故意为之。

That's what this is, and it's on purpose.

是他们干的。

They did this.

以色列人希望我们离开，而他们就是故意这样做的。

The Israelis want us out, and they did this on purpose.

然后，作为最后一点补充，这场战争中——以色列的战争——还有另一个大输家。

And then as a last sort of footnote, there's another big loser in this war, in Israel's war.

这一点早在几年前就很明显了，那就是欧洲。

And this was obvious years ago, and that's Europe.

欧洲？

Europe?

谁在乎欧洲？

Who cares about Europe?

新保守主义者关心欧洲，但原因并不完全清楚。

The neocons care about Europe for reasons that are not entirely clear.

但你经常听到新保守主义者、战争贩子、支持以色列的人——不管你怎么称呼他们——那些支持我们现在所见的人。

But you often hear the neocons, the war hawks, chills for Israel, whatever you call them, but people who supported what we're seeing now.

他们对什叶派、阿亚图拉和阿拉伯人感到愤怒，当然，这我们都知道。

And they're mad at the Shiites and the Ayatollah and the Arabs and, you know, of course, got it.

但如果你仔细听，就会发现他们对西欧有着深刻的敌意，事实上是仇恨。

But if you listen carefully, there is a deep hostility, hatred, in fact, toward Western Europe.

这种敌意从何而来？

Now where does that come from?

有人应该深入思考这个问题，因为它在过去八十年里产生了巨大影响。

Someone should think deeply about this because it's had a big effect over the past eighty years.

甚至都不用管它从何而来。

Doesn't even matter where it comes from.

他们憎恨西欧。

They hate Western Europe.

而眼下可能最大的输家正是西欧。

And maybe the biggest loser of all right now is Western Europe.

昨晚，卡塔尔停止了其液化天然气出口。

So last night, Qatar shut down its LNG exports.

LNG是液化天然气。

LNG is liquefied natural gas.

我不打算说得太枯燥，但LNG对全球经济至关重要。

Without getting boring about it, LNG is essential to the global economy.

它对亚洲至关重要，韩国完全依赖卡塔尔的液化天然气出口。

It's essential to Asia, South Korea, subsists on Qatari LNG exports.

中国是其巨大的消费国，西欧也是。

China is a huge consumer of them and Western Europe.

英国40%的家庭用电依赖卡塔尔的液化天然气。

Britain, 40% of homes in Britain are powered by Qatari LNG.

原因有很多，比如我们炸毁了下游管道，但这并不重要。

Lots of reasons for this, we blew up the downstream pipeline is one of them, but it doesn't matter.

这就是事实。

That's the truth.

所以当你切断来自卡塔尔的天然气时，现在它已经关闭了，占全球总供应量的20%被切断了。

So when you shut off natural gas from Qatar, and it's now shut down, it's 20% of the world's total supply is shut down.

这会带来各种影响。

Well, you all kinds of effects on that.

它会摧毁市场。

It crushes markets.

它推高通货膨胀。

It hikes inflation.

它可能对全球经济造成严重破坏，祈祷它不会发生，但确实有可能。

It can wreak havoc on the global economy, say a prayer that it doesn't, but it could.

但它首先造成的后果就是彻底打击欧洲。

But the first thing that it does is totally shafts Europe.

接下来是第二层影响：难民危机。

And then here's the second order effect, refugee crises.

假设这次行动实现了它唯一真正宣称的目标——推翻伊朗政府。

Let's say that this operation achieves its only real stated aim, is to decapitate the government of Iran.

但到目前为止，似乎还没有发生。

It doesn't seem to have happened yet.

我的意思是，谁知道实际发生了什么？

I mean, who knows what's actually going on?

但阿亚图拉被杀了吗。

But the Ayatollah was killed.

政府仍在发射导弹，所以有人在做决定。

Government's still sending missiles, so someone's making decisions.

但假设在这一过程的任何时间内，混乱成为伊朗的常态。

But let's say over the course of however long this takes, chaos becomes the state of play in Iran.

整个体系彻底崩溃。

The thing just falls apart.

一片混乱。

It's chaos.

这是一个巨大的、无政府状态的国家，拥有众多不同的民族和宗教派别，彼此之间武装冲突激烈。

It's a huge chaotic country with no one in charge and lots of different ethnic groups and religious splinter groups fighting with each other heavily armed.

正常的秩序开始崩溃，比如粮食分发、供水和学校。

And the normal things start to break down like food distribution and water, schools.

那你会有什么呢？

What do you have?

你会有我们在黎巴嫩和叙利亚看到的那种情况。

Well, you have what we've had in Lebanon and Syria.

事实上，每一个以色列故意搞乱的国家，都会出现难民危机。

Really, every country that Israel has destabilized on purpose, you have a refugee crisis.

他们去哪儿呢？

And where do they go?

当然，很多人会来这里，这很自然。

Well, of course, a lot will come here, of course.

但会有很多人前往欧洲，就像十年前或十二年前叙利亚人因那场冲突涌入欧洲一样，而这场冲突背后实际上是以色列为了 destabilize 其邻国、增强自身在该地区的影响力而煽动的。

But a lot will go to Europe just as Syrians flooded into Europe ten or twelve years ago in the aftermath of that conflict, which was underneath it all fomented by Israel in order to destabilize its neighbor in order to increase its own authority in the region.

这是事实。

That's a fact.

所以如果你觉得欧洲现在情况已经够糟了，那可就太糟糕了。

So if you think Europe's in bad shape now, oh, boy.

再过一年看看。

Give it a year.

所以是欧洲、美国和海湾国家。

So it's Europe, The United States, and The Gulf States.

这些才是输家。

Those are the losers.

如果你试图探究动机，这很难，而且大多数时候你最好退一步，但如果你想要理解——为什么会发生这种事？为什么你会希望这样？

And if you're trying to ascertain motive, which is hard and you probably should pull back from that most of the time, but if you're trying to understand, like, why this is happening, why would you want that?

看看后果吧。

Look at the effects.

不要去看他们告诉你的那些意识形态，或者他们声称的动机，或者你自以为有的动机。

Don't look at the ideology they're telling you about or the whatever motive they're claiming they have or that you have.

闭嘴，什叶派。

Shut up, Shiite.

好。

K.

看看实际影响。

Look at the effects.

这个体系的核心在于它的作用。

The point of the system is what it does.

这个体系、这场战争到底造成了什么影响？

And what does this system what does this war do?

伤害海湾国家，压垮西欧人，同时也伤害美国。

Hurts The Gulf States, crushes the Western Europeans, and it hurts The United States.

这就是关键。

That's the point.

如果你对此表示怀疑，怀疑这确实正在发生，那么这位长期的以色列政治家、领导人纳夫塔利·贝内特正在解释以色列的下一步行动。

And if you doubt that if you doubt that that's actually what's going on, this is a longtime Israeli politician leader, Naftali Bennett, explaining Israel's next step.

这就是他们接下来要去的地方。

Here's where they're going next.

看好了。

Watch.

一个新的土耳其威胁正在浮现。

A new Turkish threat is emerging.

我想说得非常清楚。

I wanna be very clear.

土耳其和卡塔尔已在叙利亚获得影响力，并正试图在该地区其他各个地方扩大影响力。

Turkey and Qatar have gained influence in Syria, are seeking influence elsewhere and everywhere throughout the region.

从这里开始，我警告：土耳其就是新的伊朗。

And from here I warn, Turkey is the new Iran.

埃尔多安精明、危险，他企图包围以色列。

Erdogan is sophisticated, dangerous, and he seeks to encircle Israel.

我们不能再闭上眼睛了。

We can't close our eyes again.

他精明且危险。

He's sophisticated and dangerous.

说本内特称他危险时，真正意思是他是主权独立的，这几乎算不上是对埃尔多安或土耳其领导人的支持。

It's hardly an endorsement of Erdogan or Erdogan, the Turkish leader, hardly an endorsement of him to say when Bennett says he's dangerous, what he really means is he's sovereign.

我们不能对他发号施令。

We can't tell him what to do.

我们并不能完全掌控他。

We don't fully control him.

我们可以影响他，显然以色列和土耳其在过去一年推翻巴沙尔·阿萨德的过程中曾有过某种关系——这只是我的猜测。

We can influence him, and it's clear that Israel and Turkey did have some kind of relationship, in the overthrow of Bashar al Assad in Syria last year, just a guess.

但土耳其真正的问题在于它无法被控制，因此对以色列构成了威胁。

But the real problem with Turkey is that it can't be controlled, so it is therefore a threat to Israel.

而且，再次强调，它并没有攻击以色列。

And, again, not attacking Israel.

没错。

That's true.

确实如此。

That is true.

就像当我们 hemisphere 内的大国出现敌对领导人时，这会让我们非常不安一样。

In the same sense that when we have hostile leaders in big countries in our hemisphere, it really bothers us.

有时我们会除掉他们，搞政权更迭，但我们编出了一整套说辞，不，不是这样的。

And sometimes we kill them, regime change them, and we make up this whole, no.

这非常重要。

It's really important.

X 国的人民需要自由，事实上，我们需要不受约束，因为我们是强国。

The people of country x need to be free, really, we need to be unconstrained because we're a great power.

就是这样。

That's what it is.

说这一点很重要，不是为了暗示以色列人有什么黑暗阴谋，而是为了说明这根本不足为奇。

It's important to say this, not to allege some sort of dark conspiracy by the Israelis, but to explain that it's not unusual at all.

这是世界上最平常不过的事了。

It's the most usual thing in the world.

不寻常的是生活在一个如此受控的国家，其媒体环境被精心构建，让你无法了解任何重要的事情，无法看到最明显的事物，而这种构建并非阴谋论，而是经过许多年逐步形成的，目的就是让你无法知晓真相。

What's unusual is to live in a country that is so controlled, whose media environment is so precisely constructed to keep you from knowing anything that matters, from seeing the most obvious things, and that it has been constructed, not a conspiracy theory, over the course of many, many years to keep you from not knowing.

巴里·韦斯可能掌管了CNN。

Barry Weiss may run CNN.

谁会想到会发生这种事？

Whoever thought that would happen?

好吧。

Okay.

但现在，这些举措在媒体上的目的，是控制事物的描述方式，让你无法看清真相，并用反犹主义和纳粹来搅浑舆论。

Now but the, you know, the the point of these moves is to in the media is to control the way things are described so you can't see things clearly and to muddy the conversation with anti Semitism, the Nazis.

不。

No.

不。

No.

这是典型的大国竞争，而我们却看不到，因为我们被彻底洗脑了，以为这不过是某种解放他人的努力。

This is classic great power competition, and we just can't see it because we have been so thoroughly propagandized, we think that this is some sort of, like, effort to liberate somebody.

不是的。

It's not.

但问题来了，我们在这场竞争中扮演什么角色？

But then the question becomes, like, what is our role in this?

现在我们知道了，顺便说一句，知道这一点是很危险的。

So now that we know and by the way, it's it's perilous that we know.

我几乎不想做这件事，原因之一并不是我在说任何不明显的事情——这些都显而易见——但把它们说出口并不会让局势更稳定。

And one of the reasons I almost didn't do this, not that I'm, like, saying anything that isn't obvious, it's all very obvious, but to say it out loud does not make things more stable.

换句话说，一旦战争爆发，而所有人都知道这场战争并非为了那些在战争中丧生的人或他们留下的家人，那么事情就不会变得更稳定。

In other words, once you have a war going on and everybody knows that it's not being waged on behalf of the people who are dying in it or the families they leave behind, then, you know, things can things don't get more stable.

所以，尽管没人想加剧当前的不稳定，但我认为了解真相、了解我们的领导人计划了什么非常重要，因为正如你已经知道的，他们撒谎，毫无底线。

So and no one wants to add to the present instability, but I just think it's important to know the truth and to know what our leaders have planned because, as you already know, they lie, they have no scruples at all.

在华盛顿，几乎没有几个人比阿肯色州的汤姆·科顿参议员更没有底线了。

And there are very few people in Washington who have fewer scruples than senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas.

我不愿这么说。

I hate to say that.

我对他很了解。

I him well.

但这段来自昨天周日节目的视频——尽管昨天似乎已经不存在了——实际上充分揭示了他们的思维方式以及他们想把我们带向何方。

But this clip from the yester from a Sunday show, which apparently still exists yesterday, really tells you a lot about how they're thinking and about where they'd like to take us next.

所以这是昨天阿肯色州的汤姆·科顿参议员。

So this is senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas yesterday.

早上好，玛格丽特。

Good morning, Margaret.

美国总统警告美国公众，可能会出现人员伤亡，美国人的伤亡。

The president of The United States warned the American public that there could be casualties, American casualties.

这是否意味着美国要派地面部队了？

Does that mean The US is putting boots on the ground?

不，玛格丽特。

No, Margaret.

总统已经明确表示，我们应当预期看到一场持续的空中和海上行动，其目的不仅是继续遏制伊朗的核野心，更重要的是摧毁其庞大的导弹库。

The president has been clear that what we should expect to see is an extended air and naval campaign that's designed not only to continue to set back Iran's nuclear ambitions but most importantly to destroy its vast missile arsenal.

美国和以色列还拥有更多的防空系统，以及针对导弹发射器和导弹制造能力的打击手段。

Many more missiles in The United States and Israel have air defenses combined as well as the missile launchers and its missile manufacturing capability.

当然，这种行动的一个风险是飞机可能被击落，而总统绝不会抛弃任何一名飞行员，因此毫无疑问，我们已在该地区部署了战斗搜救力量，随时准备进入并营救任何坠机的飞行员。

Now obviously one risk of that kind of campaign is that an aircraft could be shot down and the President would never leave a pilot behind, so no doubt we have combat search and rescue assets in the region that are prepared to go in and extract any downed pilot.

但除了这种不寻常的情况外，玛格丽特，总统并没有计划在伊朗境内部署任何大规模地面部队。

But barring that kind of unusual circumstance, Margaret, the president has no plan for any kind of large scale ground force inside of Iran.

总统没有计划在伊朗部署任何大规模地面部队。

The president has no plan for any sort of large scale ground force large scale ground force in Iran.

真的吗？

Oh, really?

所以是小规模地面部队？

So a small scale ground force.

你是这个意思吗？

Is that what you're saying?

嗯，这正是他的意思。

Well, that is what he's saying.

而且，战争部长刚刚接受了采访，被进一步追问这个问题，他说这是有可能的，当然，这是可能的。

And the secretary of war was just interviewed moments ago and pressed on this a little bit, and he said it's it's possible because, of course, it's possible.

顺便说一句，你不应该因为有人讲真话就攻击他们。

By the way, you shouldn't even attack people for telling the truth ever.

你应该攻击那些试图阻止你讲真话的人，而战争部长皮特·海格塞斯刚刚说的，显然是事实，而且一直就是事实。

You should attack people who try to prevent you from telling the truth, and and what secretary of war Pete Hegseth just said is, of course, obviously true and was always true.

在这个类似实战的局势中，没有任何一个了解情况的人会认为单靠空中力量就能实现政权更迭。

You there's not one person who understands a situation like this, kinetic war, who thinks you can affect regime change from the air.

从来没有人这么想过。

That's no one's ever thought that.

现在也没有人这么认为。

No one thinks that now.

如果你真心想改变一个国家的领导层，那么从定义上讲，你就必须亲自介入。

If you're sincere about changing the leadership of a country, it, by definition, requires you to get in there.

当然不是你，而是某个年轻小伙子，某个更年轻的男子，为了自由而挺身而出，冒着生命危险去完成这件事。

Not well, of course, not you, but some young guy, some younger man who's fighting for freedom to get in there and risk his life to do it.

你需要地面部队，需要士兵踏足实地，或者他们用来掩饰派遣年轻美国人置身于潜在死亡威胁之下的任何愚蠢的委婉说法。

You need troops, ground troops, boots on the ground, or whatever dumb euphemism they're using for putting young Americans in the path of potential death.

因此，这从来都是计划的一部分，我们其他人却不敢大声说出来，这真是可耻。

And so, of course, that's always been the plan, and shame on the rest of us for not just saying that out loud.

我们其他人因为被他们无休止的陈词滥调吓倒而沉默，这真是可耻。

Shame on the rest of us for being so cowed by their relentless incantations, whatever they are.

不需要地面部队。

No ground troops.

重点不在于政权更迭。

This is not the point is not regime change.

目标是阻止他们的核计划。

It's to stop their nuclear program.

我们中有些人是明白的。

Some of us understood.

查理·柯克早在六月就明白了。

Charlie Kirk understood back in June.

那是个谎言。

That was a lie.

重点不是伊朗永远不能拥有核武器。

The point wasn't Iran can never have a nuclear weapon.

是的。

Yeah.

没人希望伊朗拥有核武器。

Nobody wants Iran to have a nuclear weapon.

为什么以色列拥有核武器？

Why does Israel have a nuclear weapon?

为什么法国拥有核武器？

Why does France have a nuclear weapon?

没人希望拥有核武器。

Nobody wants nuclear weapons.

明白吗？

Okay?

除了伊朗自己，没人认为伊朗应该拥有核武器，但在六月时，没有一个诚实的人相信这一点。

Nobody thinks that Iran should have a nuclear weapon outside of Iran, but no honest person believed in June.

你知道，那些人已经被证明是正确的，因为这实际上是为了阻止并遗忘核武器问题。

You know, those people have been vindicated that this was about stopping and forgetting a nuclear.

但真正的目标是政权更迭，而政权更迭需要地面部队。

But it was regime change, and regime change requires ground troops.

因此，如果你真的认真对待，就一定会出动地面部队。

And therefore, if you're serious about it, you're gonna get ground troops.

在这场计算中，唯一被排除在外的是美国公众，他们可能根本不知道，现在仍然不太可能意识到，这竟然会成为一个哪怕最微小的考虑选项——尤其是在这个国家当前所有局势之下，以及相对而言，只有极少数美国人支持、投票支持或赞成这一行动的情况下。

The only group left out of this calculation was the American public who probably had no idea and probably still don't have any idea that that would even be a remote consideration given everything that's going on in this country right now and given the tiny percentage, relatively speaking, of Americans who wanted this, who voted for it, who support it.

两党领导人都支持它。

The leaders of both parties support it.

查克·舒默对它的支持比特朗普更热烈。

Chuck Schuber supports it more fervently than Trump.

MSNBC刚做了一个关于这场战争的长篇报道，我看了，把责任归咎于海湾国家。

MSNBC just did a long segment on this, which I've watched about this war, and it's the fault of the Gulf States.

哦，是的。

Oh, yeah.

就是海湾国家。

It's the Gulf States.

没错。

Yeah.

又是卡塔尔。

It's Qatar again.

几乎完全没提到以色列。

Barely even mentioned Israel.

他们都是一条心。

They're all on the same page.

他们都是新保守派。

They're all neocons.

归根结底，他们都支持这一立场。

When it comes right down to it, they all support this.

但公众并不支持，这对美国来说非常糟糕。

But the public doesn't support it, and it's terrible for The United States.

顺便说一句，如果你认为美国退出中东是个好主意——这或许确实是个好主意——那也不是什么疯狂的想法。

And by the way, if you think it's a good idea for The US to get out the Middle East, which it might be, by the way, that's not a crazy desire.

但这不是正确的做法。

This is not the way to do it.

以美国士兵阵亡为代价遭受羞辱，这不是退出中东的方式。

Humiliated with American dead, that's not the way to get out of the Middle East.

这正是以色列希望我们离开中东的方式。

That's how Israel wants us out the Middle East.

你再也回不来了。

You won't come back.

他们可以转向新的伙伴中国，而以色列可以提供技术，以平衡巴基斯坦在上一次对抗中使用的中国技术所造成的威慑力。

They can pivot to their new partner, China, and Israel can provide the tech that will even up the match against the Chinese tech that Pakistan used in their last confrontation scared China.

他们意识到我们需要更好的技术。

They realized we need better tech.

中国方面说，哦，是的。

China's like, oh, yeah.

我们拥有更先进的技术。

We've got the better tech.

所以这是一个自然的联盟，还有其他原因让这个联盟显得很自然。

So it's it's a natural alliance, and there are other reasons it's a natural alliance.

但以色列正在转向印度，而如果以色列如愿以偿，美国将蒙受耻辱、实力削弱，哀悼阵亡将士，并且再也不愿介入中东政治。

But Israel's moving on to India, and The United States is, if Israel gets its way, going to be humiliated and weaker, mourning its dead, and very resistant to getting involved in Middle East politics ever again.

你想把加沙每一个孩子都消灭掉吗？

You wanna annihilate every last child in Gaza?

尽管动手吧。

Go ahead.

你想把巴勒斯坦人、基督徒赶出约旦河西岸，然后让来自布鲁克林的满屋子人搬进来吗？

You wanna kick the Palestinians, the Christians out of the West Bank and fill up full people from Brooklyn?

尽管放马过来。

Go ahead.

我们不会对此采取任何行动。

We're not gonna do anything about it.

这就是目标所在。

That's the goal right there.

在实现这一目标的过程中，美国人将会丧生。

So along the way to that happening, Americans are gonna die.

国防部已确认有四名美国人死亡。

Department of War has said that has confirmed that there are four Americans who've died.

他们就是这么说的。

That's what they've said.

他们没有进行正常的简报。

They have not done their normal briefings.

截至周一下午，也就是现在，他们还没有向我们提供任何信息。

They haven't told us any information as of Monday afternoon, which is what it is right now.

他们没有告诉我们更多信息。

They have not told us more.

但很显然，不幸的是，还有更多人丧生，我认为这令政府内部的人感到不安。

But it's pretty clear that that untragically, more have died, and I think that's upsetting to people in administration.

我不认为他们会轻易做出这些决定，我认为许多派遣那些年轻人参战的指挥官对此都抱有矛盾的心情。

I don't think that they make these decisions lightly, and I think a lot of the commanders who sent those young men into this war had ambivalent feelings about it.

我的意思是，确实如此。

I mean, did for sure.

所以这并不是在攻击下达命令的人，因为归根结底，他们只是执行命令的雇员。

So it's not attacking anyone, who gave the order because, again, they're employees giving orders.

但那些鼓吹这场战争的人，他们对美国年轻生命的逝去的态度——这些年轻人是我们最优秀的子弟，却为一个真正蔑视我们的外国势力而战。

But the people who advocated for this, their attitudes about the death of young Americans, really the best Americans that we have on behalf of a foreign power that really has contempt for us.

我的意思是，还有哪位世界领导人对美国的蔑视比本雅明·内塔尼亚胡更甚？

Real I mean, is there any other world leader who has more contempt for The United States than Benjamin Netanyahu?

没有。

No.

没有。

No.

根本就没有。

There just isn't.

这是对美国的纯粹蔑视。

It's pure contempt for The United States.

这些人是为他而死的？

And these people died for him?

如果你在评论这件事，如果你试图从远处理解它，你必须为这一切哀悼。

If you're commenting on this, if you're trying to understand it from afar, you've gotta grieve over that.

这太不公平了。

It's so unfair.

这太错了。

It's so wrong.

然而，那些支持这一做法的人似乎完全不在乎。

And yet the people who've advocated for this don't seem to care at all.

这里有一个人一直在鼓吹对伊朗发动战争。

Here is someone who's been advocating for a war against Iran.

我不会去揣测他的动机，也不会指控他是为了报酬才鼓吹这一点。

I'm not gonna go to motive and accuse him of being paid to advocate for it.

弄清楚这一点会很有趣。

Be interesting to know.

但弗兰克·加夫尼，这位在华盛顿、非营利组织和智库圈子里混了很久的人。

But Frank Gaffney, who's been around Washington forever and nonprofits and think tanks.

世界上没有哪里比智库更少进行独立思考了，但它们本质上就是拥有免税资格的游说组织。

There's no place on the planet where less thinking takes place than in a think tank, but they're basically lobbying organizations with tax exempt status.

他一直在游说发动对伊朗的战争，好吧，从我开始刮胡子以来，大概就是如此了。

And he has been lobbying for a war with Iran, Well, I don't know since I started shaving, probably.

但就在昨天，他还在谈论美国人可能丧生的可能性。

But here he is yesterday on the possibility of Americans dying.

这事不可能明天就结束。

This isn't gonna be over tomorrow.

我祈祷会如此，但我不认为我们该抱有这样的期望。

I pray it will be, but I don't think we should expect that.

我们会遭受更多伤亡吗？

Will we take more casualties?

我和任何人一样为这三位美国军人的牺牲感到悲痛。

I mourn the loss of three American service men as much as anybody.

但目前来看，这对我们的代价几乎是零。

But this is essentially cost free to us at this point.

还会有多余的损失吗？

Will there be more losses?

你看到了拉比·瓦拉奇在以色列谈论他们。

You saw rabbi Wallachie talking about them in Israel.

当然会。

Of course, there will.

我们难道不应该以这将是一场艰难持久战为前提来行动吗？

Should we be operating on any basis other than this is likely to be a slog, a hard slog.

但这场斗争至关重要，因为如果我们真的在伊朗彻底击败沙里亚至上的意识形态，这将有助于我们在其他所有地方的行动。

But the fight is is incalculably important because if we do, in fact, render a decisive defeat of Sharia supremacism in Iran, It will help us with all of the other places.

所以我想要提出这一点，并不是因为弗兰克·加夫尼是华盛顿最糟糕的人，也不是因为这是过去24小时里最疯狂的言论，而是因为这恰好极具代表性。

So I wanna put that up there not because Frank Gaffney is the worst person in Washington or because that's the most insane thing anyone said in the last twenty four hours, but because it's so perfectly representative.

首先，人们会例行公事地表示哀悼、祈祷，说我为这些死亡感到悲痛。

So first, there's the sort of pro form a nod to we really we're mourning, we're praying, I mourn for the deaths.

但事实上，你如今在美国看到像弗兰克·加夫尼这样的人，是对死亡的彻底不敬，是在死亡面前拒绝保持敬畏，而这始终且处处都是对生命缺乏敬畏的标志。

When in fact, what you're seeing in America right now from people like Frank Gaffney is a total disrespect for death, a refusal to be reverent in the face of death, which is always and everywhere a sign of a refusal to be reverent in the face of life.

如果你无法体会死亡的意义，不愿在它面前沉默低头，承认你并不真正理解它是什么，但你知道它比你更宏大。

If you can't appreciate death, if you don't bow before it in silence knowing that you don't fully understand what it is, but that it's bigger than you.

如果你拒绝这样做，反而问：‘你为什么这么高兴他死了？’

If you refuse to do that and instead, why were you so glad he's dead?

无论死者是谁。

No matter who it is.

只要另一个生命逝去，你就该停一停，承认你并未创造这条生命——因为你无法创造，你不是神；而且死亡中蕴含着某种神秘，某种比你更宏大的东西。

If another human being has died and you don't pause and acknowledge that you didn't create that life because you can't because you're not God, And that there is something mysterious about death, something bigger than you.

如果你不这么做，你就是危险的。

If you don't, you are dangerous.

甚至连动物都会这么做。

Even animals do that.

你带狗去看兽医，狗不愿意进去。

You bring your dog to the vet and the dog doesn't wanna go in.

为什么？

Why?

因为狗能闻到死亡的气息。

Because the dog can smell death.

狗害怕死亡，狗对死亡心存敬畏，我们也应该如此。

And the dog is afraid of death, the dog is in awe of death as we should all be.

但华盛顿几乎没有人对死亡有这种感受。

But almost no one in Washington feels that way about death.

直接火化了事，扔掉就好，好像他从未存在过。

Just cremate them and throw them away like he never existed.

运作正常的国家会为逝者哀悼。

Functional countries mourn their dead.

他们安葬逝者，并前去祭奠。

They bury them and they visit them.

为什么？

Why?

因为运作正常的国家明白，他们并不能主宰生命，因为他们没有这种权力。

Because functional countries understand that they're not in charge of life because they don't have that power.

而忘记这一点的人会被一种叫做傲慢的东西所攫取，这总是个人和文明走向终结的开端。

And people who forget that are seized by something called hubris, which is always the beginning of the end for people and civilizations.

所以，是的。

And so the oh, yeah.

所以有三人去世了。

So three died.

我们为他们哀悼，我们在祈祷。

We mourn their you know, we're saying prayers.

真的吗？

Really?

什么样的祈祷？

What kind of prayers?

你有做过祈祷吗？

Have you said said a prayer?

你知道他们的名字吗？

Do you know their names?

哦，他们的名字没有公开。

Oh, their names aren't public.

那可能会让我们想得太多。

That might get us thinking about it too much.

但尽管如此，或者也许正是因为——你刚听到加菲尼说的，他并不是刻薄或不公平，他说这对我们来说本质上是零成本的。

But despite or maybe because of, and you just heard Gaffney say this, not being mean, not being unfair, he said this is essentially cost free for us.

真的吗？

Really?

三名美国人为了BB在一场没人想要的战争中丧生，这场战争本意是伤害美国，这竟然是零成本？

Three Americans just died for BB in a war that nobody wants in a war designed to hurt The United States and that's cost free?

而且死的远不止三人。

And it's a lot more than three.

我说这话时真的感到悲伤。

And I say that with real sadness.

正是这种态度让我们走到了今天。

It's that attitude that got us here.

但这种情况不会一直持续下去。

But it won't stay that way.

它已经在改变了。

It's already changing.

人们需要记住的是，战争会加速趋势和进步。

The thing that people need to remember is that war accelerates trends and progress.

没有什么能像暴力那样加速变革。

Nothing accelerates change like violence.

这一点在重大的社会变革中也同样成立，比如二战后女性进入劳动力市场，以及二战后的种族融合。

And that's true for big broad social changes, women in the workforce that happened after World War two, integration after World War two.

我的意思是，这也很糟糕。

I mean, and bad.

对吧？

Right?

但一旦有人开始死亡，事情就会迅速改变。

But things change fast once people start dying.

不仅仅是因为人口结构变化——因为有人死亡，需要其他人填补他们的职位，而他们又在国外，所以女性不再……

Not just because of demographic changes because a of people die and you need others to move into their jobs, and they're abroad so the women no.

这还不止如此。

It's more than that.

战争时期，一种不同的精神会笼罩整个社会，许多事情都会发生。

A a different spirit descends on a society in war, and lots of things happen.

人们会变得远不如以前自由。

People become way less free.

这是新保守主义神学中最大的谎言。

That's the greatest lie of all embedded in neocon theology.

我们杀死这些人，是为了获得自由。

We're killing these people so we can be free.

哦，对啊。

Oh, right.

不。

No.

找一场战争，看看本国人民是否因此获得了更多自由。

Find a war in which people in the homeland became more free.

哦，不。

Oh, no.

事实总是相反的。

It's always the opposite.

英国一参战，英国政府做了什么？

The second Britain went to war, what did the British government do?

他们将国内的反对声音，连同他们的家人、妻子，在整个战争期间压制了多年。

In turned their opposition, their domestic opposition with their families, with their wives for the duration of the war for years.

这发生在英国，而英国至少我们认为是一个相当自由的国家。

That was in Britain, which was, at least we thought, a pretty free country.

他们还给了我们《大宪章》。

They gave us the Magna Carta.

是的。

Yeah.

所以，国家并不会变得更加自由。

So no, countries don't become more free.

相反，战争期间他们会变得远不自由。

They become much less free during the war.

暴力的精神弥漫开来，人们迅速改变，算计也随之改变。

A spirit of violence descends, and people change fast and calculations change.

政治算计迅速变化，社会趋势迅速变化，人们的态度也随之改变。

Political calculations change really fast, social trends change really fast, and people's attitudes change.

这其中一部分并非政治或暂时的，而是精神层面的。

And part of it is not political or temporal, it's spiritual.

你能从人们身上感受到嗜血的欲望和仇恨，而且这种情绪在加剧。

You can feel on people the bloodlust, the hate, and it accelerates.

这解释了你此刻所看到的现象——新保守派的愤怒，这根本说不通。

And that explains what you're watching right now, which is the rage of the neocons, which doesn't make sense.

这完全说不通。

That doesn't make any sense.

他们多年来一直主张美国政府代表以色列杀死霍梅尼大阿亚图拉。

They've been advocating for years that the US government on behalf of Israel kill the Ayatollah Khomeini.

他们多年来一直这么说。

They've been saying that for years.

我在这行已经三十五年了，每年都能听到这种说法。

I've been in this thirty five years, and I've heard that every single year.

他们昨天终于得手了。

They got it yesterday.

霍梅尼被杀了。

Khomeini got killed.

好吧。

Okay.

你如愿以偿了。

You got what you wanted.

现在是圣诞节早晨。

It's Christmas morning.

你刚拆开了礼物。

You just opened the present.

你为什么生气？

Why are you mad?

他们比以往任何时候都更愤怒。

They're angrier than ever.

这是理解他们心理的关键，是一种精神原则。

This is the key to their psychology and it's a spiritual principle.

嗜血的欲望永远不会满足，就像其他任何欲望一样。

Bloodlust is never sated just like any other kind of lust.

它永远不会满足。

It's never sated.

永远没有足够的时候。

Nothing is ever enough.

你尝到它的味道，就想要更多。

You taste it on your tongue and you want more.

这就像吃糖果。

It's like eating candy.

它并不能让你满足。

It doesn't satisfy you.

你总是更渴望更多，而杀人也是如此，永远如此。

You're always hungrier for more, and killing is the same, always.

但这里有一种特定的心理在起作用，这是一种无情的反人类心理，容不下宽恕、体育精神或尊严。

But there's a specific psychology at work here, and it's a graceless anti human psychology that has no room for forgiveness or good sportsmanship or decency.

一旦这样的人获胜，他们就想杀死被他们击败的人。

The second people like this win, they want to kill the people they vanquished.

所以想象一下，这是一场网球比赛，你赢了。

So imagine this were, I don't know, a tennis match, and you win.

如果你是一个典型的西方人，你会走到网前，说一声‘打得不错’，试图展现你小时候父亲灌输给你的精神——那就是体育精神，是胜利时的风度。

If you're a sort of normal Western person, you walk up to the net, you say good game, trying to display what your father beat into your head as a child, which is good sportsmanship, which is grace in victory.

不要耀武扬威。

Don't lord it over them.

不要伤害他们。

Don't hurt them.

你已经赢了。

You already won.

要优雅一些。

Be graceful.

你在新保守主义的战争支持者身上看到的，恰恰相反。

What you see in the advocates of this war in the neocons is the opposite.

你在网球比赛中击败了对手，却跃过球网，用球拍将对方活活打死。

You beat someone in a tennis match, you leap across the net and beat them to death with your racket.

这就是你现在所看到的。

That's what you're seeing now.

因此，你看到的是这种疯狂、歇斯底里的行为——试图清除保守派运动或MAGA群体中任何对这场战争明智性抱有疑虑的人。

And so you're seeing this crazed, hysterical, in fact, effort to purge anyone in the conservative movement or MAGA, whatever those are, to purge anyone who had any doubt about the wisdom of this war.

而且不仅仅是清除他们，还要污名化他们。

And not just to purge them, but to discredit them.

你是伊斯兰主义者。

You're an Islamist.

伊斯兰主义者。

Islamist.

这些很多人其实是虔诚的基督徒，他们基于宗教理由表示反对。

A lot of these people are, like, sincere Christians, right, who opposed on religious grounds.

你是伊斯兰主义者。

You're an Islamist.

你在拿钱。

You're taking money.

当然，这全是投射。

And, of course, it's all projection.

你把你自己正在做的事强加给别人，当然，但这还不止如此。

You accuse people of what you're actually doing yourself, of course, but it's more than that.

这是嗜血。

It's bloodlust.

他们不应该只是被噤声、被取消平台资格、被阻止参加这场或那场会议，或被禁止做播客，他们还应该被关押。

They shouldn't just be silenced and deplatformed and prevented from speaking at this or that conference or from having a podcast, but they should be interned.

他们应该被逮捕。

They should be arrested.

离“他们应该被杀”还有多远？

How long before it's they should be killed?

不会太久。

Not long.

这些事情进展得如此迅速，因为一种精神已经被释放，而暴力每次都会如此。

That's how quickly these things are moving because a spirit has been unleashed, and violence does this every time.

一种暴力与仇恨的精神已经被释放。

A spirit of violence and hate has been unleashed.

经过深思熟虑后，我的个人建议是：不要助长它。

My personal advice, having thought a lot about this, is don't feed it.

这显然是恶魔的影响。

This is demonic influence clearly.

这并不理性。

This is not rational.

当然，你赢了的时候为什么会更生气？

Of course, why would you be angrier when you win?

你得到了想要的东西时，为什么会更狂怒？

Why would you be madder when you got what you wanted?

这说明它已经超出了正常人类欲望的范畴。

That tells you this is not in the realm of normal human desire.

你不会的。

You wouldn't be.

这些人在滋养邪恶，而邪恶以仇恨为食。

And these people feed evil itself feeds on hate.

他们投射仇恨，但无论有意识还是无意识，都意图激发仇恨，因为仇恨让他们更强大。

They project hate, but they also intend consciously or not, to inspire hate because hate makes them stronger.

这不仅发生在这个国家，也不仅发生在2026年。

And this happens not just in this country, not just in 2026.

它每次都会发生。

It happens every single time.

战争会把这样的人推到台前，并让他们变得更强大。

War brings people like that to the fore, and it makes them more powerful.

因此，你才会在过去几年里看到这个国家真正激进主义的增加。

And that's why you're seeing it as you have for the last several years, an increase in true radicalism in this country.

我说的激进主义，是指我们因为一个人的出身而憎恨他们，并想伤害或杀死他们。

And by radicalism, I mean, we hate these people because of how they were born, and we want to hurt them or kill them.

我认为，大家都会同意，这才是真正的激进主义。

That's, I think, all would agree, actual radicalism.

那不是，嘿。

That's not, hey.

自由号航空母舰发生了什么？

What happened to the USS Liberty?

那不是激进主义。

That's not radicalism.

这确实是个很直接的问题。

That's like an honest question.

答案当然是，以色列是故意针对我们的，因为我们挡了他们的路，就像他们现在所做的那样。

And the answer, of course, is Israel targeted on purpose because we're in their way just like they're doing now.

这算不上激进主义。

That's not radicalism.

激进主义是，嘿。

Radicalism is, hey.

我们来杀害我们不喜欢的人，而你正看到这种现象在这个国家、在以色列急剧增加。

Let's kill people who we don't like, And you're seeing a massive increase in that in this country, in Israel.

本·加维尔或斯莫特里奇，二十年前他们可能被想象出来吗？

Would Ben Gavir or Smotrich, would they even have been conceivable twenty years ago?

当然不可能。

Of course not.

二十年前，以色列根本没有这样的人掌握权力。

No one no one like that had power in Israel twenty years ago.

我当时在那里。

I was there.

那时完全不是这样。

It was nothing like that.

这是因为战争释放了这一切，并赋予了这些人权力。

Well, it's nothing like it was because war has unleashed this and it's empowered people.

比如，我们这个国家也有这样的人物，好几个都手握实权。

Like, we have figures like that in this country, several of them who have actual power.

但还没有进入政府。

Not in government yet.

谢天谢地。

Thank heaven.

但肯定在政府的外围，并且确实影响着政府。

But certainly on its periphery and certainly influencing government.

是的。

Yes.

他们确实如此。

They do.

权力比以往任何时候都大。

More power than ever.

顺便说一句，伊朗也是如此。

And it's also true, by the way, in Iran.

而且这一战争之所以难以摆脱，其中一个原因就是，开战仅一天半，就已经彻底激进化了伊朗的领导层——只要它还存在的话。

And one of the reasons this can be difficult to get out of is because this war has already, a day and a half in, radicalized the leadership, the extent it still exists, in Iran.